Pivot - Pivot Q1 Quarterly Review

Episode Date: April 1, 2022

Kara and Scott are back with Pivot’s Quarterly Review series. They take a look at Scott’s past predictions on Alibaba, Meme Stocks, and record entrepreneurship to see how they’ve held up. Then, they get some predictions from Friends of Pivot, including Ina Fried of Axios, journalist Nicole Perlroth, Rani Molla of Recode, and Matt Belloni of Puck. You can find Ina on Twitter at @inafried, Nicole at @nicoleperlroth, Rani at @ranimolla, and Matt at @MattBelloni. Send us your Listener Mail questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or via Yappa, at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. It's our quarterly review. We'll round up our biggest wins and fails of the first quarter and

see how well we did with our predictions. We'll also hear from some friends of Pivot on what's coming in the second quarter and beyond. But first, Scott, Facebook, what the heck? Faceplant again. It's pulling some dirty tricks with its battle with TikTok. It's obviously hot and bothered about that rivalry. They have a problem with rivalry, as you know. The company paid a Republican firm to spread rumors and half-truths about supposed TikTok trends, like slap a teacher. The campaign placed letters to the editor and local media claiming to be from concerned

parents. I mean, and their excuse is, this is how it's done, I think. That was the quote from the Facebook spokesperson, which was appalling once again. I don't know what to say. Yeah, and it's, by the way, TikTok or, who owns TikTok? Jesus Christ, I'm blanking. Chinese, ByteDance. ByteDance, excuse me. The thing getting in the way of TikTok being one of the five most valuable companies in the world in the next five years was the fear that there wasn't a Chinese wall, if you will, between the company and the CCP. Yeah. And when you hear that the real enemy is actually us, when you hear that it's Facebook spreading misinformation and trying to manipulate us, not TikTok. Facebook, what Russia has done for NATO, Facebook just did for TikTok.

And that is, now TikTok looks like the good guys, and that it's Facebook manipulating people's viewpoint. And also, it's especially upsetting. I don't know. A lot of us, I had a really emotional reaction when I heard about TikTok and the slap your teacher challenge. Yeah. It really upset me. And then when I find out it lacked veracity and it was Facebook manipulating me again, I just get very angry at Facebook. Most of these rumors, most, now listen, TikTok has plenty to worry about on its platform. It's been actually pretty good comparatively.

And they've been trying to fix it. Any platform that's popular is going to start seeing things that are problematic. But the fact that they, let me just read this from Casey Newton. It is so good. Yeah, he did. I read it. That I really think it's worth reading. Of everything I find insane about Meta's latest dirty, latest, let's say, this is

not the first. They did one a couple of years ago, if you remember, trying to impugn George Soros, and they hired the definers in 2018 and did all kinds of hijinks that were filthy. Of all the things I find insane about Meta's latest dirty tricks campaign, it is this scorched earth element that I find most mind-boggling. The fact that the very issues Meadows sought to expose began as rumors on Facebook only underlines the absurdity of the whole affair. And perhaps I should find some way to laugh about all of this. But even as Facebook employees tell me not to be naive, of course Facebook does this, everybody does this, I find myself choking on the cynicism. There's a cynicism of the planting of op-eds in letters theaters and local newspapers with their internet decimated staffs

and diminished investigative powers, knowing they need content and won't likely ask too many questions about where they came from. There's a cynicism for boring credibility from local politicians, handing them a few paragraphs of someone else's ideas and encouraging them to pass

the talking points off as their own. There's a cynicism of assuming no one will ever find out. I thought that was exactly right. It's just, what's wrong with these people? Well, when you think about this notion of a hate crime, right? You're tapping into people's worst instincts. And when, you know, you worst instincts and make their instincts worse. And this is, okay, let's play on people's anti-China xenophobia. And you just wonder. And more than that, on teachers. The head of the teachers' union came out and said, this is disgusting.

Because all these teachers were scared. And then, of course, it creates copycats, right? Because people think it's a thing. It inspires kids to do it. Yeah, and also TikTok spent, waste its time on things they should be looking for because it spends weeks dealing with this. We had a goddamn meeting.

It was a discussion in the board of a school I'm involved in. So Facebook is wasting the time of school boards all over America. And by the way, Facebook, we have other fucking things to worry about than your bullshit propaganda, creating false flags and sending us off in another direction, trying to figure out what we need to do to educate our students around not assaulting our teachers, when in fact, this was a lie propagated by you. So, and you always say this, who the fuck was in the room when they made this decision? Yeah. Who was in the room and thought, that's a great idea?

Yeah, we should go with it. Get Nick Clegg out there. Nick, Nick, this is a great idea. Who was in the room that not only came up with this idea, but who sat there and didn't go, wait, maybe we should rethink accusing a company of fomenting violence against American teachers? Lastly, Mark Zuckerberg said the last time they did this, which was appalling. This is beyond what they did last time, that this is not the company we were going to be. We don't do this kind of thing. And then now they point to other companies that do it. But listen, I know they do.

I get it. I know. But they do it. Google does stuff like that. I'm sure Apple does. Microsoft many years ago did Frugal, if you remember. But that one they did out in the open. That was out. That was from Microsoft. Everybody knew it was. There's a level of malevolence here and a hatred towards the truth that I just, I can't even, I want to meet those people and I want to like, I don't want to slap them because that's not what we do in America. But I just, how can they look at their kids? How can they, I just, how can they operate? It's very Trumpy.

It's Trumpy. I can see a group of Trump people do this. I think they've literally gone to the dark side. I think their attitude is, we're victims. Everyone is unfairly coming after us. So we got to fight dirty. This is how the game is played. You just keep working on your work.

I got to believe this is not a... It's a culture among senior management. And until one of them, until Mark Zuckerberg leaves the company, or a big tech executive at one firm, a firm, does a perp walk and it scares the shit out of all of them. I just don't see it changing. We get outraged and nothing happens. None of this is illegal. This is the problem. It's just repulsive. It's just repulsive is what it is.

I don't quite know what's illegal, wasting people's time. And you know what they'll say? Their next go-to will be like, yeah, we need to fix this. It was wrong, but let's be honest. This is nothing the News Corp doesn't do every day. That's what they'll say. Well, that is correct. That is correct. They're such finger pointers. Look at yourself, you people. It's like, honestly, just honestly. Have you reached out to Cheryl? Is she proud of the progress they've made? I can't even. I can't even. I can't even. This is-

Where's she at? Where's she at? Let's see where this goes. Let's see where this goes. I'm going to. I would say I give them the benefit of the doubt here, but no, I'm not going to this time. I'm just not going to. Anyways. It's anyway. Outraged. We're outraged.

We're angry. You know, did you see me fighting with people on your behalf on the Twitter yesterday, by the way? You know what? I tuned in last night. I was so tired that for me, I went to bed at midnight, which is really early. And I saw this Twitter war and you were defending my honor and I couldn't follow it. I couldn't figure out what I had done wrong. Well, it was a fan of ours who was mad at us for saying, you know, oh, we want to get more stuff because we spend a lot of money. We were making a bigger point.

It was the point I was making. Oh, I've done much worse than that. And a lot of it were jokes. Literally, we talked about sexting. I appreciate it. We ended up in a good space, everybody. We had a great debate. And that's what's great. We like to debate and get feedback. We are not immune to feedback. I can see how it sounded like we were a bunch of rich people who are going, oh, I want more. That sounds right.

No, but you could do it if you're an in-and-out burger or something. You've got to have relationships with your customer in a much more significant way. Anyway. Okay, Scott, let's begin our quarterly review. Every week we make predictions on the show. And since we hold everyone else to account, we're going to turn that critical eye on ourselves, which we do a lot, which we always do. You did that at the end of your CNN show around trans issues. And seeing how our predictions held up, sometimes we're completely right and we make a really good point. So let's begin our quarterly review.

First up, a prediction from Scott about Alibaba. This came in April of last year. We made this. I think Alibaba is a fantastic stock right now, now that the overhang of this amount. So I think it's trading at 220 or 240. I think it's 300 by the end of the year. I think on a risk-adjusted basis, it's a fantastic stock to own. Well, it's not. That one was wrong. Alibaba was trading around 238 at the time of the prediction. By the end of the year, it was below $120. That's about where it is right now, too. There's all kinds of issues. There's some layoffs. I think the Chinese government has something to do with this, of course, which I don't think was easily predictable. What do you think, Scott, went wrong? Well, I mean, I got this wildly wrong. It

actually bottomed out at like $75. It did. And I think it's back to $120 or $130. So, this is a geopolitical bet. It's a bet on whether the government wants to wrap the knuckles of its internet giants or cut their fingers off. And so far, they keep, I wouldn't say they've cut the fingers off, but they keep wrapping the knuckles. the geopolitical instability has kind of had a flight to safety and people are, the Chinese brand, if you will, around internet companies has waned. And that is people are insecure when they see what happens in Russia, when these stocks can go to zero, when they see China take an entire sector around tutoring that was multi-billion dollar, take it to zero. When they see China weigh in and basically kind of put Diddy almost out of business, it creates an entirely different sort of risk-off trade. And China had kind of been up into the right for the better part of the last decade. They have. So now you've gone from a company that was trading at sort of growth multiples to

almost distress multiples. If you look at Alibaba now and you look at its growth, I mean, keep in mind, this is a company that's still growing, I think, like high teens per year. And it has, it makes Amazon look kind of weak in terms of the different sectors they dominate, whether it's payments or e-commerce. It feels like it's a good buy, but the thing is, people look at, you're buying, you're making two bets here. You're making a bet on the company and you're making a bet on the CCP. And right now people are having a difficult time predicting the CCP's actions. And also, you know, there's a global slowdown in China too. Everything's not roaring back. Jack Ma has lost enormous amounts of money, tens of billions of dollars.

enormous amounts of money, tens of billions of dollars. And of course, he's been quieted, which I think part of the appeal of that was Jack Ma talking about various things. And, you know, this is a Chinese government issue, but of course, they were still going to face regular issues as a company as they're competing. And so, it's much more difficult. With Jack Ma, when you sort of kneecap the founder, in this case, it's a problem. And that's what's going to happen. And I think everybody operates in a very different style. So, look, we got that wrong. You care to make a prediction of what's going to happen? I guess not, right? Oh, that's not going to stop me. I think Alibaba is a great company. And I mean, I think at this price, I do think, I just don't see how the CCP, the CCP still has to bring

10 million people plus a year out of poverty, or otherwise there's revolution. Or they risk their party being voted out of office, which in a single party nation is revolution. risk their party being voted out of office, which in a single-party nation is revolution. And Alibaba is an incredible company, good management, super strong. So, I think at these ratios, I mean, you basically, if you look at Alibaba relative to Amazon, it's a company growing faster than on most relative metrics is trading at a third of the price. I mean, it's just the price-to-sales ratio for Amazon is 3.7. The price-to-sales ratio— Well, except China. Except China.

We'll see. And, of course, whether they're going to bounce back. I would agree with you. I think it's one of the important companies. But what they've done to entrepreneurial zeal in that country is, I think, problematic for them. We'll see what happens. That doesn't mean it won't change, but it's a problem. The other thing is, you think about TikTok, they've got to decouple from China. If they did, they would take off to the moon. And that's a question if they can really decouple in some way, whether the Chinese government allows it is another story. In some way, whether the Chinese government allows it is another story. But that's another thing that people are watching about. And if they do, they'll go public and they will really be a competitor to Mark Zuckerberg in a really significant way. So just to finish up, price to sales for Alibaba, that's its market cap relative to its annual sales, is approximately 2.3.

For Amazon, it's 3.7. And Alibaba is growing faster. So by most traditional metrics, it's 3.7. And Alibaba is growing faster. So by most traditional metrics, it looks inexpensive. But it's interesting. Free markets and rule of law. And this is what gets me so angry. Not angry, but all these libertarians that want to defund the SEC and criticize. Without that rule of law, without that hateful thing we call regulation getting in the way of our incredible mavericks, guess what?

Your stocks would be 80% off because no one would have the security to invest in these markets. The thing about the USD and the NASDAQ is the NYSE is it gives people the confidence in Malaysia and Cape Town and Seoul to put their money in our markets because they know the government isn't going to come in and make these unilateral decisions and wipe out sectors. Yeah. So, you know, here, here for bureaucracy and government.

Well, maybe not bureaucracy. But anyway, I'm watching TikTok is what I'm watching to see what they do there. Yeah. Okay. Here's a prediction Scott made at the start of January as we approach the one-year anniversary of the GameStop short squeeze. Meme stocks, movement stocks, whatever you want to call this, companies claiming to be solving climate change so they can cash out. All right.

The reckoning is here in 2022. The reckoning by Scott Galloway. Okay. All right. Okay. Do you like how I just like go along with you? You were right. You say you're right on this one, but GameStop and AMC both rallied in March after a steady fall in January. AMC is up year over year, but Robinhood is down significantly from its IPO in August. So I'd say a mixed bag here. I think there's no predicting this stuff because these investors don't care about the fundamentals, so it doesn't matter. But do you think meme stocks, defend yourself, and then do you think meme stocks are over? Oh, I mean, I'm a little bit, I feel defensive. I think we nailed

this. I mean, okay, AMC and GameStop have recovered a bit, but the growth sector, I mean, these companies, I don't care if you're Roku or Robinhood or Twilio or, I mean, these guys, these guys are, there's a half of IPO stocks or half of these stocks are off by 50, 60, 80%. I mean, the market, there are hedge fund managers. Kathy Wood, who was supposed to be the next Warren Buffett, I mean, her fund has been decimated. So, if you own anything growthy, even the good stuff, even like Square or PayPal, these things are off 40, 60, 70%. So, the unwinding across the growth sector in the public markets over the last six months, I would imagine it's unprecedented. I don't even think you saw this. Is it a buying opportunity or you just get out

of the way until the knife stops falling, I guess? I think we're about to see. So over the last 10 years, there's been a massive transition of capital from active investing or stock picking to passive where you just buy the market. And when the market climbs the wall of worry and just keeps going up on a risk-adjusted basis, you're just better off buying the market. I think we're about to enter a great decade of stock picking. And that is, if you were to look through, I published on my blog a list of all these companies that are off 60%, 70%. And there's some great names in there. I think we're about to go back to stock picking. And that is, there's going to be dislocation, the markets are going to be choppier, and it's going to lend itself to thoughtful managers who find companies.

There are some names in there where it's definitely the baby got thrown out with the bathwater. Keep in mind, from mid-1999— Give me a name, bathwater baby. Give me a bathwater baby name. Oh, I don't know. The kind of names I would look at would be like a Roku or a Twilio. These are great companies, and I would want to know more about their ratio. I think Robinhood could go down another 80%. I think Rent the Runway is a stupid company with a terrible business model that's probably going to go out of business. So there's companies that are going to zero. And by the way, I like Rent the Runway. I was rooting for them.

Yeah. but there's definitely some companies in there that have probably been, you know, the pendulum is never at the bottom, right? It always swings too far one way or the other, but you would definitely need to do your homework, but that lends itself to stock pickers. I think active management is about to see a renaissance. For those who can do, so the couple of stocks, Roku and others, you think. But I'll talk about it. So it's dangerous to make recommendations on shit you don't own because you're not putting your skin in the game.

These are the two stocks I own in this category. Okay. I bought Lemonade at the IPO. Yes, you're a very big fan. I bought it at 28. I sold it at 60 and 70 and it ran to 180, and I thought I'm an idiot for selling. Yeah. And I still own some, and now it's back to like 30.

So this is one of those companies that's literally off 80% from its high. Very growthy, you know, crazy multiple. I don't have a view on it now. I just haven't looked at it. You're sort of a half idiot because you sold up. Right. And then the other company, my biggest position that I've ever made is Airbnb. And I was lucky enough to get in at 68. It ran to 210.

It went back to 130. Now I think it's back at 170 or 175. It is. But that company, I think Airbnb is the next quote unquote big tech firm. I think it's the strongest brand in the history of hospitality. What's that? I'm using it right now. I love it. It's a great place. I think the design is elegant. I think it's got great. It's the one I trust.

I trust it. I think it's got great leadership. I think there is no brand. If you look at every search done on Google for hotels in Orlando, they don't add up to the number of searches for Airbnb Orlando. They don't add up to the number of searches for Airbnb Orlando. And the key to that thing, one of the keys to Airbnb is they've been able to exit the stranglehold of Google and Facebook. They don't have to pay because people go right to Airbnb or they type into Google Airbnb Dallas. I'm going to Brazil in a couple weeks, and the first thing I do is Airbnb Florinopolis.

It's interesting. Why don't you use – I don't use VRBO, but although I've looked at it, I have a, you know what we were talking about last week with trusted relationships? This is a trusted relationship. I have had, they've got lots of stuff that, you know, we talked with Brian about that at PivotCon, but it's, they've got lots of issues that they're dealing with, but they've certainly, one of the things he said, we had all our shitty issues at the start, you know, that they had. They had a very rough going at the beginning.

And now they know how to handle them. They're going to see more problems, obviously. They've seen those pop up. But the way they handle them got the difference between how he handles his crises versus Facebook. It's like night and day. It's like night and day. It's amazing. I mean, but look at this.

Pinterest off 73% from its 52-week high. Lemonade, Virgin Galactic off 85%. And by the way, what did we say was going to be the poster child for the SPAC unwinding? Virgin Galactic. We said Virgin Galactic. Okay, it's down 85%. Affirm, the payments company. Peloton off 80%.

Yeah. HIMSS, remember them? We tied the CEO on them. Oh, yeah. Off 78. Peloton off 80%. Yeah. HIMS, remember them? We tied the CEO on them. Oh, yeah. Off 78%. Redfin off 78%. Clover, 93%. Oh, some of these are good companies.

But let's go to our next one. Lastly, here's a prediction from July from Scott. This is a great era of entrepreneurship. We're going to see more new businesses started in the second half of 2021, in any six-month period in the last 30 or 40 years. Well, we are going to hold you to that. Oh, see? See how I do that?

I'm just your, like, handmaiden of, huh. Interesting. This one is right. The record 5.4 million new business applications were filed in 2021. That's more than 50% increase over 2019 before the pandemic. Scott, where'd this come from? Although, because everyone does feel nervous at the same time. It's funny, there's job growth and so many jobs, and yet everyone's nervous because of inflation.

It's a really interesting, weird time for people. And they had money from the pandemic. I've been starting businesses my whole life, and we like to credit our successes or credit our grit and our character for our successes and blame the markets for our failures. Yeah. And I have found – I've started nine companies. I'm sort of like three, two, and four. Three wins, two big losses, four sort of draws. And when I look back on trying to figure out the signals from the noise on what is the correlation between success and failure, the only thing I could come up with was where in the economic cycle I started the company.

Shitty times. When I started companies coming out of recessions, they almost always won. When I started companies in frothy times, they almost always never worked. Because when I started L2 in 2011, I could get real estate in Manhattan for 27 bucks a square foot. I could hire talented people for 20 bucks an hour. And then coming out of a recession, it was the perfect storm of good things here.

And it's not recessionary environment, but the key is that everybody is rethinking the way they do business, which means consumers and enterprises are willing to try new things and reevaluating the vendors they use, the things they buy. In addition, the shock to your life gives you a moment of pause. And I love the term use,

the great reassessment, not the great resignation. In addition, a lot of people can dance between the raindrops and using kind of the gig economy support themselves. So it's like, okay, I hate my job. I'm not enjoying myself where I can be at home. I can't like that. That's a scary thought. Everyone's feeling like – I had a dinner with fans of ours from the graduate school of business at Stanford, the business school. And it was this table of young students, very diverse, which was really interesting, smart, diverse, mixed men and women. It just was great. It was a really great, different backgrounds, different parts of the country.

And they were all thinking about differently. They did not necessarily, weren't going to rush into big companies. They were all thinking about starting companies. They had a very positive attitude in that way. They didn't feel scared. And that's the one piece of advice they asked me for a piece of advice at the end. And I'm like, don't feel scared to do things at your age,

especially they were younger. Not everyone was younger though. Well, I think they were, they're pretty young in any, but they had been, some of them had had careers before and they felt, it felt like they were really leaning into startups and trying things. And I don't know, it was interesting. I felt great after this dinner. Look, it's a more nuanced conversation, I think, about this a lot. If you're blessed with a great degree and you're young, I still think that going to a great platform on a risk-adjusted basis, if you're fortunate enough to get an opportunity to go to work for a great platform, whether it's a Vox, a JP Morgan, a Google, I still think on a risk-adjusted basis, that's the place to go and learn and get healthcare and meet people. I think entrepreneurship is

romanticized. Having said that, creating an environment, and this is where I think antitrust comes in, where there's a lot of opportunity for small businesses. I think that's the key to America's, one of the keys to America's success. Two-thirds of new jobs are created by small and medium-sized businesses. So I think anything we can do to increase the environment for entrepreneurship is a wonderful thing. I think you have to be – I think you have to take a sober look. The thing I don't like about this news is everyone says, oh, I'm going to start a business. And whenever I call people and call me, they think I'm going to go, oh yeah, start a business, no matter what they ask me. And more often than not, I say, you know, as much as you hate where you are, given your situation, given your financial

needs, I would consider staying for another year and trying to work it out there. But the more new business formation you have, the better the economy, because these things fill new spaces. Occasionally they blow up. And I've been an entrepreneur my whole life. It's been very stressful, and it's been very rewarding. And I find that there's a link between those two things in anything you do. And that is the highs are higher and the lows are lower. But they should, I think the idea is if you have a choice, you should make a choice. And many people, they asked me if I would give the same advice to those who, you know, had jobs, you know, that aren't movable. And I said, no, absolutely not. But I would encourage them to get more, there's more educational opportunities online to think

about some, if you didn't have education, some vocational training, or get that education. But it's different where you are on the economic spectrum, obviously. But you're right. Sometimes saying it's just a good decision is leaving. That's a key point. And that is we tend to think of entrepreneurship in the context of two MIT grads who leave Google to start a company.

The majority of entrepreneurship is immigrants that are never given the opportunity to work for Google. So they open a great restaurant or a services company. Entrepreneurship. I mean, I relate to this and people don't. I'm an entrepreneur because of my deficiencies, not because of my skills.

I don't have the ability to be effective and successful in a big organization. I'm too insecure. Me either. We're bad employees. Do you know that? Well, I don't position it as like a romantic thing. Like I'm too much of a maverick. I was literally too insecure. I're bad employees. Do you know that? Well, I don't position it as like a romantic thing. Like I'm too much of a maverick. I was literally too insecure. No, no. I said bad

employees, Scott. I'm not insulting us. Well, let me just be self-aware for a moment. When I was at Morgan Stanley, if people went into a conference room, I thought, oh, they must be talking about me. I spent more time worrying about what everyone thought of. Then actually doing my, getting my shit done. And so I thought, I need to have control and information. And the only way I can get that is by starting my own business. So the majority of entrepreneurs start a company, not out of options, but out of a lack of options. And the great thing about America. I don't agree. I didn't do that. That's not why Walt and I started. I just thought everybody was stupid. Yeah, but you had tremendous momentum and, for lack of a better term, privilege.

You had brands. You had platforms. You had money. You had amazing educations. The majority of entrepreneurs have none of that. They have none of that. They can't go to work for Google or the Wall Street Journal. So just be clear.

If you have access to those platforms, think long and hard before you leave because the greatest wealth generator in history is still the American corporation. So, it's a situational thing. I don't like it when business schools and everyone just say, oh, start a business. You're lame if you go to work for another company. No, you're not. It's all situational. It's about where you are in your life, your financial needs, your financial obligations. Scott is advising moderation.

That is Scott. It's nuanced. Bringing in a little nuance. Oh, I love this nuance today. The dog. That's right. He doesn't just howl at anything. He howls at the moon.

All right. Okay. All right. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll hear from some friends of Pivot about what's coming up in the next quarter, and I'm sure they're going to be nuanced. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night.

And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people.

These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell

victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash Zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Thumbtack presents the ins and outs of caring for your home. Out. Procrastination, putting it off, kicking the can down the road. In. Plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done. Out. Carpet in the bathroom. Like, why? In. Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today.

Scott, we're back. Now that we've looked back at our own predictions, let's hear, I don't make predictions, by the way. Let's hear, except that I egg Scott on. Let's hear from some friends of Pivot about what they expect in the coming months to start. Let's hear, except that I egg Scott on, let's hear from some friends of Pivot about what they expect in the coming months. To start, here's a prediction from Ina Fried of Axios. I think geopolitical issues are really what's going to dominate the tech discussion for the next few months, particularly, obviously, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has a number of effects, some of which we've already started to see around content moderation, around where tech companies do business. But I think we'll see that deepen in the next couple of months.

I think supply chain issues could crop up. Supply chains are already very strained, particularly semiconductors. And while Russia doesn't play a pivotal role in the broad tech ecosystem, they do provide some key raw materials that are needed for tech. So if there's any issues there, it could really challenge an already struggling supply chain. And the other piece to watch is China. China has kind of tried to sit on the sidelines here. But certainly, I think there's going to be pressure from both sides for them to take a side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And to the degree that they don't come out against Russia, I think that could further reinvigorate the discussion

around the U.S. and West decoupling from China, as well as China taking its own actions to become more independent. That's going to happen over the long term probably anyway, but the Russia conflict could accelerate things. That's a very deep and substantive and nuanced argument from Ina Fried. Thank you, Ina. Black Rocks, Larry Fink says the Ukraine war is bringing an end to globalization, which is interesting. De-globalization could have some benefits. A disrupted energy market could speed up the transition to renewable energy. Thank you, Scott.

Well, I like Ina. I think she always has a thoughtful take on stuff. The deglobalization argument, it made for a good catchphrase, but we're deglobalizing on trade. And that is, a lot of companies are saying we need a more heterogeneous supply chain, proximity is more important. We need to do more business. Right, that there's going to be more domestic manufacturing in America. And more trade with our allies. I mean, the biggest, if you want to talk about geopolitics, you have to understand energy. Because if you look at the last hundred years, you know, oil has had a lot more impact than the semiconductor, the internet. And what is, to a certain extent, even when Putin decided to launch this war and how he launched it was a function of the energy markets. And what we're going through now is trying to figure out the relationship between liquefied natural gas and oil and Europe's needs and our needs. And so just there's more conversations right now, Cara, around how we transfer energy to different nations and how we transfer armaments.

Yeah. I think that's a good time to be innovative, actually, try to think of new things. I don't know if there's going to open a chip manufacturing thing in America. But, you know, I had a discussion with Chamath Palihapiti. I know he's had some issues recently, but nonetheless, he's very smart. And he was like, things that collapse give you an opportunity to come up with new ways to do things. And I don't think that's a big idea, but whether it's airlines, et cetera, et cetera. And I don't know there's going to be a chip plant in America, but how do we do these things? Where do we get them from? What prices are we willing to do? Where can we cut? I think crisis always gives a great opportunity in this case. But she's right, this China thing, there's more and more. China is our rival. China is the U.S. rival. And we talk a lot about Russia, and there's a lot of that, but they're so far behind the real point. China's really the rival of the United States of America. And so what does that

mean? It doesn't mean a Cold War by any stretch, but it certainly means to be thinking about that there's another power that has significant advantages that the way we have had. Anyway, we have to move on. Here's a prediction from Nicole Perlroth, the author of This Is How They Tell Me The World Ends. First, the bad news. Over the next few weeks and months, I think we are going to experience Russian cyber attacks of critical infrastructure. The White House announced last week that Russian hackers are already in the planning stages of these attacks. And I think with the West continuing to tighten the screws on Russia with sanctions and the ban on oil and diamonds and vodka. It's inevitable at some point that Putin will retaliate with cyber attack. We know that they have the access, we've seen their capabilities. And I think what we as Americans don't realize is just how soft our underbelly is when it comes to cyber. So watch that space. I can't leave you there because it's too scary. So I'll leave you with some good news. I think until now, cryptocurrency has really been a safe

haven for cyber criminals, but not anymore. I think over the next few months, we're going to start seeing law enforcement and agencies like the IRS turn it around and exploit the public nature of the blockchain against cyber criminals. And I think we're going to see them start doing it at scale. So cyber criminals, be afraid, be very afraid. That's all I got. Be good, you two. I will see you on the other side. Well, that's smart. Nicole's so smart. She's smart. You know, she left the Times. She's working as an advisor to SISA and stuff.

Just a really smart person. I think she's right. I think, she left the Times. She's working as an advisor to CISA and stuff. Just a really smart person. I think she's right. I think we have to be very clear. We've talked about this extensively this year around cyber issues. And we have to be really clear that we are vulnerable and we're dependent on these different technologies. Hackers, on the other side, though, hackers under the anonymous banner, say they've taken down websites of Russian energy companies and news organizations.

They are also, the whole world is vulnerable in this area. And the question is how we do it. I would like to see at the end of this some sort of worldwide agreement around cyber attacks, just the way we did it with nuclear. I think it's really important. I don't know why we don't have that, but it way we did it with nuclear. I think it's really important.

I don't know why we don't have that, but it's not, it is war. It is a war of a different kind, but it's just as devastating. It's not just as devastating, of course, not the buildings, but it can be, it could have repercussions that are very significant around people's savings and their lives and the safety of water and electricity, et cetera. So, it has repercussions. Yeah, but Nicole, I'm a huge fan of Nicole's. I read her work, but there's just no getting around it. Nicole and other cybersecurity analysts got it wrong. Meaning? Well, there was a lot of cybersecurity analysts said, we're kind of waiting for cyber attacks from Russia that didn't materialize. Not yet. I'm sorry. I think she's

right. I think we're very vulnerable. I don't think. I think they're busy having a shitty war, doing a bad job. They have made a conscious decision not to do this. The guy driving the tank is the one doing cyber attacks. They have decided, they have purposely made a decision to hold back, at least so far, because I believe we have closed the gap and they are worried about counterattacks. So, I think the security analysts around cyber here actually got it wrong. We've all been very surprised at the lack of attacks. I'm going to go on the other side of this. I'm going on the other side of this. I think we are very vulnerable. That's not what

I'm arguing, Kara. To date, all the cybersecurity analysts predicted this would be a war of traditional armaments and cyber attacks. They were half right. The cyber attacks have not come. And so the question is, why haven't they come? I think they will come. We'll see. I believe the U.S. has actually significantly closed the delta. And I think that whether privately or publicly, I think we have communicated, Nicole talked about this, our ability to shut down with a cyber attack those nuclear reactors. I think Russia has said, okay, just as we don't want to engage Russia directly with a no-fly sound that includes taking out their missile batteries in Russian territory, I think the Russians have calculated

that if we start doing cyber attacks, they will respond. And we might not like how they respond, because to date, everyone is surprised at the lack of cyber attacks coming out of Russia right now. Well, I think we have a much bigger landscape, as I've said. Yeah, surface of attack. I love that. What's the term you use? I love it. Attack surface. Yeah, that's a good term. It's the name of my next book.

It's Everett Crinnell's. I think she's right. The government's getting its hands around this. But there's also going to be all these problems. Last week, hackers stole over $600 million in cryptocurrency from a network behind Axie Infinity. So the government's going to have to start hiring up on this area. If you want to go in, by the way, jobs, cybersecurity, like we talked about. 100%. I mean, crypto has been really interesting in the sense that this was supposed to be

the perfect storm of good things for crypto. Governments deciding that you couldn't, crashing currencies, inability to transfer funds, government stepping in and providing sanctions and freezing assets, volatility. I mean, inflation. This felt like the perfect storm of the narrative for why crypto should be so strong. And Bitcoin went down and it has recovered. Yeah. But it hasn't had what I call its quote unquote big, its big moment.

Yeah. But what they do like is the regulation. They do need regulation. What they do like is the regulation. They do need regulation. And in fact, the criminal element of crypto has been exaggerated. I think actually as a percentage of volume, the amount of illegal activity in crypto has actually declined. Yes, they are. Sure. And I think, quite frankly, I think the worst thing to happen to Web3, like the worst thing that's happened to a lot of things over the last several years,

involves the name Trump. I think when Melania Trump, a first lady, holds an NFT auction and it ends up that there are fraudulent wallets trying to create market manipulation and business thing. Yes, she just points out the problems. Yeah. And then, and I don't know if you've looked, if you look, but at that moment, and I don't know if it's related or unrelated, but NFT volume has really checked back. And it peaked about the moment where our first lady pulled off what seems to be— Former first lady. Our former first lady. I've never understood people's affection for her. I think it's because it's like—

Oh, I think she's an awful, awful character. She's terrible. She's an awful character. And because she was standing next to someone even worse, everyone's like, oh, no, she's a good first lady and then she'd make a face at him that you know i almost didn't like her more because i know that's not true it's because she kept making face at him and laughed i'm like whoa she sits there and then she makes faces at him like what no well she's not my friend because she makes faces at him that's kind of shitty to be a wife and do that just leave him or not that's my feeling on her but anyways nfts and i think melania kind of mel to be a wife and do that. Just leave him or not. That's my feeling on her. But anyways, NFTs, and I think Melania kind of, Melania is the worst thing to happen to NFTs

in my sense for a while. I'm actually bullish on NFTs, but crypto's big moment. I mean, the crypto Taliban has gone oddly quiet. The people who are like crypto, well, the Bitcoin maximalists who were on Twitter every day attacking everybody, if you didn't say Bitcoin was going to a million dollars a coin, have gone quiet, which is strange. I don't know if they're just waiting in line. I don't know what's going on here. No, this is typical for the beginning. This has happened at the beginning of the internet. Anyway, here's one from Ronnie Mala of Recode. Here's our next one. I think we're going to see a resurgence in unionizing. We've already had nine out of 10 of the Starbucks locations that have voted vote to form a union. And in the coming weeks, 160 more

are slated to do so. And I get that it's always tantalizing to think that union membership and the protections it affords are going to come back, especially after being in decline for decades. But I do think there's something different about this moment in time. You know, these Starbucks stores, while they have just like 20 or 30 people each punch way above their weight in terms of the public consciousness, the people working these jobs became adults amid like huge inequality, these big social movements like black lives matter, not to mention a global pandemic.

And I don't think they're afraid to demand better. Well, that, what do you think Scott? We've talked about this. You've talked about the weakness. I think the Starbucks thing is interesting. A union helped pay my way through college. I was a part of a union at San Vicente Foods where I was a box boy. I'm a fan of unions. She's wrong. It's a blip. In my view, if you look at the Western nations that have unions, their membership on average is down 40% to 70%. Unions just are a failed construct. And a mix of outdated economics,

corruption, lack of coordination among the unions, the ability of management and shareholders to atomize employees, income inequality, poor regulation that doesn't raise minimum wage. I think that the strongest union in the world needs to be the federal government that gives people dignity and work and raises minimum wage. But I just, I think they'll have blips, but I don't think it's going to happen. All right. But what replaces, I want you to give me a solution instead of telling me an old thing doesn't work. Oh, okay. Federal funding of vocational programs. Taxing endowments. Forcing colleges to increase freshman year enrollments.

Raising minimum wage to $15 and then $20 in the next three years. Universal basic income. Restoring the child tax credit. Should I go on, Kara? Should I go on? Okay, but with unions, what is the new version of a union? That's what that is.

It's called the U.S. fucking government, the most noble organization in the world that puts a floor on what people can make. This is about money. Yeah, I agree with the minimum wage. We have tripled CO compensation. The NASDAQ is up fivefold and minimum wage since 2009 has exploded from $7.25 to $7.25.

Yeah, agree. Unions are ineffective. On the whole, unions have gotten their asses kicked up and down Main Street for the last 30 years. So the federal government raising minimum wage. What we need to do is all be members of a union. We all need to pay our dues to the government, including wealthy people, and say, okay, union called the U.S. government. Everyone in America, if they decide to work and there's dignity in work, makes at least 15 and then 20 bucks an hour. I mean, I just don't think it's that complicated.

And we need to train. Over 50% of Germans have some sort of certification or vocational training. In the U.S., it's less than 10% because we're all drunk on this notion, my kid's going to go to MIT and go to work for Google. Two-thirds of kids don't end up with a college degree. Let's start investing in our youth. But okay. All right. Okay. All right. All right. I like Scott. Oh, come on. Every parent thinks their kid's going to end up at MIT and go to work for Google. I don't care. I don't care. I don't care. If my son wants to work in a restaurant, I'm good with it. My other son wants to. No, not every parent does. I'm sorry. Okay I don't care. If my son wants to work in a restaurant, I'm good with it.

My other son wants to. No, not every parent does. I'm sorry. Okay, near every parent. I'm not. I talk to lots of parents. I don't think every parent does. I think that's a cartoon of parents.

I don't think that's the case. I think we have created in this nation a fairly narrow path of what we define as success, and I think it creates tremendous stress in households. I would agree, but I think there are a lot of people pushing back, including young people and their parents. I'm going to push back on you. You're pushing back on every one of these. These people appreciate pushback. They don't need us.

These are all super successful people. Okay. So far, I agree with Ina. I'm on the same side as Ina. Everybody else is from Wokistan. Oh, unions are making a comeback. Well, wouldn't that be nice? Wouldn't that be nice?

All right. Okay. Thank you, Mr. Glass Half Empty. All right. All right. Lastly, Matt Bellany, one of my favorites, a puck with a prediction that's near and dear to my heart. I have a Tom Cruise prediction for you. I predict that Top Gun Maverick, which comes out on May 27th, will be the biggest opening weekend of Tom Cruise's career. Yes, biggest.

That is not accounting for inflation, of course. But the biggest opening weekend he's had has been War of the Worlds, which is just $64 million. And I think that Top Gun is huge with boomers, huge with Gen X. All they got to do is get some millennials interested in this thing. And it is going to be way higher than that. That is my prediction. Big win for Tom Cruise, big win for Paramount. Okay. All right. Wow. Matt, I would agree with you. Thank you. He was also saying that they've got a red state, blue state winner here. And pent-up demand for this is through the roof. I would agree. I cannot. Matt, let's go together to go see this. I'll fly out to Los Angeles. I think you live in Los Angeles. I am very excited to see this six times. I love Top Gun. I will see it in the theater. There's no way you can see it anywhere else. But Matt, as usual, because he and I disagree, because he's, you know, he's a little bit more pro-theater. I think theaters are still, you know, not going to be as significant. And you pick and choose. There's so much great stuff on streaming. When we got to

this Airbnb last night, we found a movie that Ryan Reynolds was doing, The Atom Project on Netflix. movie that Ryan Reynolds was doing, The Atom Project on Netflix. Really cute, adorable, et cetera. So as much as I love this prediction and I agree with it, I think we're still in the same situation with Hollywood and movie theaters, and you've got to start to get used to that happening. It's a new world out there. Speaking of War of the Worlds. Go ahead, Scott. I agree. F-15 or Raptor planes and America and the flag. Maverick. He's mad. He's never been an admiral, that kind of thing. I think Tom Cruise is the best actor who's never won an Oscar. And I think that his looks and his action film success take an academy that is, quite frankly, a little bit, it just has a

tendency to like more artsy films. But if anyone sees his performance in Magnolia, if anyone sees his performance, he was breathtaking in Born on the Fourth of July. I think he's the best actor who hasn't won an Academy Award. And because he's such a huge star, and because, quite frankly, he's just so good looking, I think the Academy has overlooked him. He's not going to get it for this. It's just not the kind of movie. But yeah, I'll go with you. I'll see it twice. I think I'm excited about it, too. Well, you know what's interesting about him? I have a lot of distaste for his personal stuff, or a lot, a lot. He always manages to top himself in nutty things he says. But I see every Mission

Impossible. I have a real problem because I love all this. He's not a bad guy, though. He's just weird. He's not a bad guy. It's Scientology. I just can't. Yeah, okay. Okay, he's weird.

It's more than weird. It's more than weird. If you read extensively on it, it's more than weird. But that said, I really do like these Mission Impossible movies. I loved him in, oh, the one I keep forgetting the name of, where he's in the future and he's a detect. The Edge of Tomorrow? No, no, no. That one I like too.

Minority Report? Minority Report, my favorite movie. Yeah, it's a really good film. I see it over and over again. It's a really good film. And so here's the deal. I think you're right. I think he's a great actor.

I really do. I don't think he gets enough. He was great. Did you see Tropic Thunder with Ben Stiller? Yes, Tropic Thunder. He was fantastic in that. Go back and see Taps. I can't believe how many Tom Cruise movies I see.

Yeah, he's a great actor. He's a movie star. He is really a movie star. He really is. And he still is. I even liked the Jack Reacher ones, even though he was totally wrong. But let me just sideline here for a second. So sorry about Bruce Willis.

Did you hear the news? I did not. Again, another someone I was. He has aphasia. He's retiring from acting. It's a forced retirement because he has aphasia. And as someone who had very temporary aphasia when I had my stroke, I don't know what the circumstances are. It's typically around a stroke or another neural issue, impairment that you have.

You can't speak. you can't communicate. And I had it for about 20 minutes when I had my stroke, and it was terrifying. He's going to be retiring. And I, Bruce Willis has given me more pleasure in the movie theater, just the movie theater, around the diehard movies and the way he talks and his fast talking, and even going back to when he did television, I just think he's a really interesting, I always like a Bruce Willis movie, and I feel bad. I'm an action star person, so I wish him well, and I'm sorry for his family.

There you go. Yeah, I remember in my senior year in college, I used to hang out with my friends, and every Wednesday night, we'd go over to my friend John Kimball's house, and we'd make taco salad and watch Moonlighting. Oh, Moonlighting. That's the one. He was with Sybil Shepherd. Let's be honest. It's shocking I'm not gay, isn't it? Aren't you a little surprised? Aren't you a little surprised? I think you're gay in spirit. How's that? Gay in spirit.

Garrett? I'm Garrett. You're I think you're gay in spirit. How's that? Gay in spirit. Garrett? I'm Garrett. You're gay adjacent, I would say. My ex used to say, gay by day, straight by night. I'm sure that's going to trigger people. Anyways. Oh, don't worry about it. The gays don't get that offended.

Don't worry. Especially because you got George Hahn by your side. Gee, Hahn! You're surrounded. Yeah. Did you take him to the CNN opening? Are you kidding? He was invited before me. No, no, no. Did you take him to the CNN opening? Are you kidding? He was invited before me. No, no, no.

He took me. He took me to the CNN opening. He's the bell of the ball there. I love that guy. He's so great. Did you see he put out a Twitter photo of him in a suit without his shirt on? And it got like 50,000 likes. Yes, it did.

Doing the Timothee Chalamet. He looks good. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for our quarterly wins and fails. As a Fizz member, you can look forward to free data, big savings on plans, and having your unused data roll over to the following month. Every month.

At Fizz, you always get more for your money. Terms and conditions for our different programs and policies apply. Details at fizz.ca. Okay, Scott, we're back. It's time to pick our wins and fails for Q1. There's plenty of news to pick from. The mess with Spotify and Joe Rogan. Oh, remember that? True social launching without Trump and going down still. Massive layoffs and CEO resignation at Peloton. The largest tech deal ever, Microsoft buying Activision for nearly $70 billion. There was a lot of M&A action in the video game world this quarter. Other companies had their spacks against the wall, BuzzFeed, Virgin Galactic, and Trump Group are having a hard time. Oh, so sorry on that last one.

And of course, all the changes from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So, Scott, what's your win and fail? And let's do it very quickly. Well, my fail is obviously the invasion of Ukraine, and not for the reasons you think. I mean, obviously, the death and destruction are unfathomable. But I believe just looking at this unemotionally, Russia's decision to go into Ukraine has not only not created a buffer, it's created an enemy on their border. I think there were a lot of Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia or didn't think of Russia as their enemy who now believe that they are their enemy, in fact. And I think every day that this conflict goes on, and by the way, I

don't think America, I hate to say this, is in a hurry to see this conflict end because I think every day that it goes on, Russia cedes geopolitical power to the West. I think it has unified NATO. For the first time, Republican and Democrats seem to agree. I think China is actually stepping back a little bit from Russia. Letting see them ruin themselves. I think Europe is going to move more towards climate or towards energy independence. There's going to be renewed vigor to figure out renewables. So I just think geopolitically, this was a miscalculation.

That is my loss. My win, Cara, is I have someone in my household who I care a great deal about who caught COVID late in the game. And here's the thing. We're not worried. And that is because of vaccines. Double vax and boosted. So someone I love a great deal. I don't have to, you know, the stress and anxiety that I would have been feeling right now, if this had all gone down pre-vaccine, would have been enormous. And so American ingenuity, American science is the amount of death, disease, disability, and general despair that this innovation has avoided that we will never appreciate. Supposedly, if we didn't have these vaccines, they estimate another one to two million Americans would be dead. The vaccine, you know, my life, I continue

on with my life. My loved ones are going to be just fine because of science and truth. And science is the closest thing we have to a truth. And the best product of the last 50 years in the West isn't the iPhone. It's these vaccines. So my winner is vaccines. All right. Nice. I like that. Those are two very thoughtful wins and fails. I would say, All right, nice. I like that. Those are two very thoughtful wins and fails. I would say, you know, I have a very similar thing. Obviously, the fail is Russia and this invasion. But I got to say, Facebook came in. It's not comparable. But if I had to pick a news event, I think Facebook has come in at the last minute with, once again, manages to win the crown, grab the crown for really bad behavior, bad corporate behavior. And they

tried to make a pivot with Meta. And of course, speaking of pivots, and everyone was onto that game. And it gets in the way of that, by the way. I bet they have a lot of people, good people at Facebook, trying to make good things. And it's just, it's an insult to those people who work there. So I think they have managed once again to fail, which is something they do with alarming frequency. Obviously, Truth Social was a fail, but we always thought it was going to be. What a ridiculous scam that has been.

And for the positives, I think if I'm thinking of a new story, Microsoft buying Activision, I think it was really smart. I just, I have a lot of, I just had an interesting discussion with Brad Smith there about some of the legislation in Europe. I think this is a company that's finally found its niche and it knows who it is. And I think this Activision deal is very smart and we don't quite understand it, you know, yet. And I think they're, they're doing all the right things. I think it's going to be one of the most, it's, it is one of the most valuable companies in the world. Um, and I think they're handling themselves, uh, uh, with

a lot of, uh, smart, very smart group of people running that company right now, long time people. Uh, but I'm sort of, I'm, I am surprised how impressed I am with them. I think that's it. I think that's it. I think that's what I would say. Anyway, it's been a very interesting quarter. I can't believe all that news in this one quarter. It's crazy how much news there is.

I'm sure there's going to be plenty of news and lots of things we didn't expect every day that's happened. Well, that's been a great boon for our show, especially the good news. It gives us lots to talk about, and we really appreciate all your feedback. And we thank you so much for our predictors, even though Scott trashed them. Nonetheless. I feel bad now. Was I really that harsh? No, no, it's okay.

You just get mad about unions. It gets your dander. Okay, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with our guest, Dr. Lori Santos of the Happiness Lab. Scott, you're going to like that one. I go to a happiness lab. It's called my beer fridge. Okay.

News changes, but Scott remains the same. All right, read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Silverio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week and next quarter for another breakdown of all things tech and business. COVID has come to the Galloway household, but there is an absence of fear.

Thank you, U.S. government. Thank you, science. Thank you, universities. Thank you, Moderna.