Pivot - Pulp Fiction NFTs, Netflix’s Numbers Revealed, and Peloton Peddles New Stock

Episode Date: November 19, 2021

Kara is back with Scott to discuss Peloton's new stock offering, the Miramax versus Tarantino battle over Pulp Fiction NFTs, and alarming updates in Activision's sexual misconduct allegations. Plus, Netflix reveals its most popular content and an iconic arena gets a crypto name change. Plus, Scott gives us a prediction on the Metaverse. Send us your Listener Mail questions, via Yappa, at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Name your child. Well, no, it's not too late to rethink this. It's on the birth certificate, but okay. I think it would be fun to name him Picker Upper, and then on the passport, it would say Swisher Picker Upper. I thought of that all myself. I thought of that all myself. That's good. Oh, my God. You want to know a striking thing?

What's that? I put the list of names that were rejected, including two by my sons, Augustus and Constantine, which felt a little too Roman Emperor, Although Solomon is up there with that. But, you know, it's sort of a more biblical name. But all the men suggested their name, like you and George Hahn. A hundred percent. Yes. Well, you know what I was hoping?

I generally was hoping that you were going to have twin girls that we would name Anna. That way, when I saw them, I'd say, Anna one, Anna two. That's good humor. That's good humor. I am not having any more children. So this, you have missed your opportunity. I should be the godfather because you got to do this for me. One, I take the kid to coffee and I'm like, I get to say, I'm the godfather. I'll have an Al Pacino. No. That's worth it to be the godfather. I'm rich. No. I'll get him into a good school that he doesn't deserve to get into by paying a lot of money, either like USC or USC.

This is a hard no. You're not hearing my no. And then as I get older, as the godfather, I will make him offers he doesn't understand. No. He doesn't understand. I'm going to pass on this one. I'm going to pass on all these. I got to tell you. I would be an awesome godfather. He doesn't understand. I'm going to pass on this one. I'm going to pass on all these. I got to tell you.

I would be an awesome godfather. I would be awesome. I will bring this child, the golden child part two, the sequel, to you, and you shall meet him. What is the name? Solomon. Solomon? Solomon.

Jesus Christ, you have gone full golf weirdo. Solomon? Solomon! Yes, King Solomon. Solomon. I wanted the name to be King, so don't even talk to me. So we're going to call him Saul? Solomon? Saul. Or Mon. You guys aren't even Jewish. Oh, wait, Amanda is part of the tribe. Okay. Solomon. All right. All right, just throw a little. Is there anyone else we haven't offended yet? Anyone else we haven't

offended? Well, you haven't made a lesbian joke in a long time here now. By the way, I got a lot of questions about who even picks the last name. This is like who parks the car in a really difficult spot. I just don't get it. Who picks the last name? Oh, we wanted cats as the last name. You know, my sons are Swishers, but Swisher is in there. So it's Solomon Lee, which is after her beloved grandmother, before you open your mouth.

And then L-E-E, her grandmother's L-E-I-G-H, I believe. And the Swisher Cats, that's what it is. Solomon Lee Swisher Cats. I think it sounds great. It sounds like a, my son said it sounds like a Supreme Court judge right now. No, I'm pretty sure that's the general that invaded Roanoke for the Confederate Army.

And then Solomon Lee took the fort under heavy fire. Louis did note that. You guys are so grandiose. You're such cultural elites. Not a lot of kids in Kansas named Solomon. That's right. That's right. And this is not a kid in Kansas.

Scott. There's a lot of kids named Scott. Scott. Saul. Scott. Saul. Saul. I like the name of that.

I'm getting a lot of notes from people who said, my grandfather was named Saul. My great uncle was named Saul. They just like the name. Yeah, and they go to Boca for Christmas. Boca. I'm going to see all of them. I know. I'm going to introduce Saul again.

I like this. Saul, Saul the dog, cats. I'm in. Saul the dog. No, no dog. There's no dog. Pick another animal. No, no, no, no.

This is very exciting. He's a beautiful boy. Four, no, no, no. This is very exciting. He's a beautiful boy. Four weeks early, as was Clara. Clara was thrilled. Calls it my baby. So she's really thrilled to be a big sister, I think. And we'll see how it goes. We were up all last night because Clara needed to be up all night last night because she's a little bit like, what the hell's going on here?

I am the golden child. So I have a little advice here. You know what really helps when you have a kid at our age? Yeah, tell me, because I've already been through this already, but go ahead. Please give me advice. Really the key to having kids at our age? Yeah. Money. Yeah, I agree.

Surround that kid with night nurses and just surround it, lubricate it with money. It's like having kids at our age is like living in New York. It's awesome if you have a shit ton of money. Yeah. Can I just say, I never thought I'd hear the word night nurse come out of Amanda Katz's mouth, but it did this morning. Oh yeah.

Get the night nurse. Get the night nurse. Like night nurse. And I'm like, what? Like, cause she never says that. We will,

we were thinking of it. But, but he's great. He's really a very calm baby. And the hospital was great, except the nurse and the doctors argued with each other during the thinking of it. That's a really good idea. But he's great. He's really a very calm baby. And the hospital was great, except the nurse and the doctors argued with each other during the delivery. That instills confidence. Can I just say, given all these employment constraints, there's a nursing shortage, you can see these doctors wanting to throw a fit, but couldn't.

They couldn't. Can you imagine what their lives have been like the last two years? This nurse went out to get coffee during the delivery. Like, I need some coffee. And the doctors are like, what? I need a break. I'm sorry. Can you hold on a minute? I just need a break.

I need some personal time. Yes. Yes. I know. I know. Well, there you have it. Can you stop dilating? I need to take a break.

Well, that was essentially what happened. But then was giving the doctor advice and telling us different things. And you could see these doctors who've been so used to being able to take a break. Well, that was essentially what happened, but then was giving the doctor advice and telling us different things than the doctor. It just was, and you could see these doctors who've been so used to being able to push around nurses, not able to. It was very funny to watch, except for the fact that Amanda was in pain. But go ahead.

Our moment, our big moment was, first off, I had to sit down. I was so sick and nauseous. They were worried about me, not anybody else. And then, yeah, I can't handle that shit. I wanted to get cord blood because everyone, did you save cord blood or whatever it is? Well, anyways, we did.

And we didn't. We got all these vials and things and reserved space for the cord blood for years. And she forgot to do it. And she looked at me and she said, you didn't remind me. And I'm like, I've never done this before. Like, I'm supposed to know what to do here? Yeah. Anyways, how long did this all take?

It should have been shorter because again, with shortages, they were slow to put the, there's a thing, the drug you give people to go into labor a little bit quicker at this early stage. And then the epidural took a while. The doctors, it's just, it really was interesting. Like it was, it went along longer than it should have, but it was fine. It was fine. And it was great because this is a preemie, really. But he's really big. He's really nice.

Anything. It's great. I'm really happy. That's very exciting. How does Lucky feel about all this, most importantly? You know, she's good. She came over. She bought an extraordinarily expensive outfit already, so she's happy.

That's something. She's buying baby clothes. And she bought Clara a purple tutu which was a huge hit so things are well in the swisher cats family well congratulations thank you thank you well done thank you for stephanie for taking over you guys were very funny so let's move on to some things because today we're going to look at some troubled uh d to c companies we'll talk a bit about spyware and the brewing hollywood fight over nfts and a tarantino classic i can't believe i'm saying nft and quentin Tarantino in the same sentence. But we got, again, more peeks at Netflix

numbers this week. They did this at the Code Conference, if you recall. Netflix launched a new website that shows its most popular content around the world, which is the first time they did it was at Code. They're ranking shows by hours watched, so we don't know exactly how many people are watching, but it's an interesting statistic. It's the most popular English language TV show, as it was when we were, I think Squid Games was moving up, but it was Bridgerton, with Shonda, the deal they did with Shonda Rhimes. So, it's just interesting that they're doing this, and they're really, they're under pressure, so they got to release more numbers, correct? Well, yeah, and it also just, it just, they're kind of just boring away the competition. If you look at the numbers, it's sort of Netflix and the Seven Dwarves.

I think that they're, you know, I think they're like six most popular show is more popular than any other show. They really do move through these things. And there's more hits to come right now. They have Tiger King 2 coming. This movie, Maid, about a maid, is doing really well. You know, they just continue to like crunk them out, I guess. I think the kind of weird thing about it, or the different thing, it's total hours viewed because I guess a lot of people start a show and don't finish it. And so this attempts to address that, I think.

Yeah. But, look, they continue to inspire. I believe the Netflix, I was thinking about this the other day, B2B is easier than B2C. Yeah. Because B2C is sexier. And so there's more people dream of starting a B2C company more than they think of starting a B2B. And I think the thing that has made B2C harder across almost any sector is one, 40%. 40% all consumers for any online business, which is every business now, have been sequestered by Facebook and Google. 40% of all venture capital raised goes to Facebook and Google. They become taxes, no longer services or points of differentiation. But also the entire consumer world, consumers have been trained to expect your offering to basically give them $1.5 billion of content for every dollar a month they give you. Netflix has literally trained the consumer to expect so much for so little. And in the world of media, it's like, how do you compete against that?

How do you get someone to spend $10 a month on anything in media when they go, oh, that's what I spend on Netflix? Right. And what they get from Netflix. on Netflix and what they get from Netflix. So it's kind of, Netflix has been almost deflationary for the entire consumer ecosystem. Yeah, it's interesting. And you looked, you saw those Disney numbers were down and Disney shares got a hit. We talked about that.

But then they keep turning them out, like Red Notice, Dwayne Johnson, Gail Godot and Ryan Reynolds. Look at those stars. Those are big frigging stars. And this is a big hit. The last big hit was with Chris Hemsworth too, an action movie. I'm going to watch it. It's just really interesting. I mean, I still think these people are trying to catch up, but others do not have

the stamina this company has still. They're going to, but they don't have it. And I know that the new head of Warner has been going on. I've got the content. I've got the stamina. But, boy, they don't have the stamina, this country. They just don't. They just don't. Well, a great peanut butter and chocolate combination is an incredible culture and talent combined with $16 billion in weapons cash to produce content. And, you know, Hulu just wasn't going to come up with Squid Games. You know, they have the ability to try just strange stuff.

And in addition, their strategy around expanding, taking American capital and production values to what I'll call regional creativity and regional storytelling. Yeah, we've talked about this.

No one, no one has gotten, no one has even begun to do that. You know, it was funny that I watched do that. You know what's funny? I watch Larry David. I love him. And he's just come back. And he has a whole thing where he goes to Netflix and deals with them trying to do a show called Young Larry, which is hysterical. And then he has to move over to Hulu, which is even funnier.

So it's kind of interesting that you have, that's as a plot point on an HBO show of a guy that sort of created the network, the top network show, Seinfeld. It's very funny to sort of look. He's so fantastic. He's very good. I was telling these guys I have to interview Emily Ratajkowski later today. That's who you get? Let me get this. Well, I guess there's something in that for you as well.

Yeah. Oh, stop it. Now, here's something I have to say. You were correct, I guess there's something in that for you as well. Yeah. Oh, stop it. Now, here's something I have to say. You were correct, Scott. Bobby Kotick knew more about sexual misconduct of the company and hid it from the board. I was very surprised by this. I was impressed by his letter. I still am.

He took a big pay cut. He wrote a letter with very specific changes. And now this journal story, the extra stories off of it, it's a little not quite as, there's a lot of serious things. It's how much the board knew, et cetera, et cetera. The board has backed him very strongly. Obviously, this company has gone from $14 billion

10 years ago to $52 billion, something like that in value. I think they'll keep backing him until that time. But they need to $52 billion, something like that in value. I think they'll keep backing them until that time. But they need to do an investigation, a very independent board-sanctioned investigation where the board actually does its job, which you talked about rather significantly when we talked. There's a lesson here for entrepreneurs, and that is, and this is either why board members need to resign or they need to fire him because when things are not going well at a company, you want to over-communicate with your board. Like when business is bad or there's something along the lines of maybe needing a rape

accusation, you need to that moment send a message to all your investors saying, this has happened. And your tendency is to want to wait till you know more. For me, just immediately say, this is going on. Or our sales are way down this week. Because surprises are fine to the board as long as they're good surprises. And bad news is fine, but it can't be a surprise. It can't be the – it's never the crisis, Cara. It's never the actual crisis that gets people in trouble.

Or what gets them more in trouble, I should say, is the way they handle it. And if this story is true, if they actually settled – I mean, we get on boards, you get a list of lawsuits of pending litigation, much less before you settle. And so the weird thing is, I don't know if this is true, but I got the impression on the stuff I read that they may have even settled with someone before the board knew about it. Yeah. If that's the case, if there wasn't a rape allegation and then they settled with someone before the board even knew, either that means one of two things. Either the CEO should be fired for not disclosing what is a material event to the board, or they have such a shitty board that the CEO doesn't feel a need to update it. You were talking about, right? You were talking about that idea of a board that

most boards, most of these tech boards do not do their jobs. But there's got to be an independent investigation here regardless, I think. You know what I mean? We just don't know. Like, we don't, like, they have to. I think, you know, there's been a walkout. Some shareholders that have not very many shares asking for a resignation. And so, I think it has to be, it has to be. And, of course, now, you know, J.P. Morgan downgraded.

They've got to have a, they've got to have an investigation, a very independent one. I don't know how else they can do it, but the board has said, the board of directors responded to the journal's article Tuesday saying it remained confident in Bobby Kotick's leadership. So we got to find out what's happening here, like exactly. And I think- By the way, those statements, Kara, just so you know. I know, I know. The day before they fire a CEO, they'll say they fully support the CEO. Yes, that's true. But actually, in the case of, what was the recent CEO where they didn't say a word? What was it? I'm trying to blank. There was one recently. I get it. I just feel like this

needs an investigation. This is my feeling. But maybe I'm wrong about that. You think not at all. Just go. If there was a rape accusation and then a multimillion-dollar settlement with the person making the accusation and the board was not informed of that, you either need a new board or a new CEO. That just is not corporate governance. Right. That is totally unacceptable. Boards get a list at every board meeting of any pending. If there's an employment action in California, the board needs to see it. So the notion that there was this type of allegation and then a payoff where the board was never informed, either the board is so feckless and anemic that they don't feel a need to update them, which means you need a new board, or the CEO tried to brush this under the carpet,

which doesn't make any sense. This guy can't be this stupid. There's more information to come out here. There's just a missing piece because you read this. So what do you think? Did the board did know or that they didn't? I have no idea. These are such serious allegations and it's such a great company that I don't want to speculate. But as reported, this is just so unusual and so unacceptable. So what's missing? I feel like we're not getting the story. Put the puzzle piece that's missing.

What's missing? A subcommittee. Like typically the dynamic on a board. So now I'm really playing like armchair therapist around boards. That's all right. You do this all the time. Typically what happens is there's one or two board members that have all the power. And that is the person who owns the most shares or the person who is kind of the most famous or wealthiest person on the board.

There's typically the bad boards fall into one type of behavior. And that is they all show up for dinner every three months. They stay stuff. Bad boards fall into one type of behavior, and that is they all show up for dinner every three months, they stay stuffed, and then they look at the board member who matters to try and get there before what he or she says. That has been a thing at tech companies, I've noticed. And so the CEO may have been corresponding with kind of like the power player on the board, and they may have made the decision themselves and said, oh, you know the board. They're a bunch of famous credentialed people. We pay a quarter of a million dollars to get free dinner every three months so they can think big thoughts. But there may have been behind the scenes that a subset of the board knew about. record from the board, this just sounds like a very dysfunctional situation. And then,

and whenever you're talking about a rape accusation and a settlement, it just takes everything to a new level where you not only need a board, you not only need a CEO, you're probably right. You probably need a third party to come in and investigate it. Yes, 100%. That's the next move here, I think. Because they're not going to immediately, this is why I think they won't immediately remove him. Because I know they make these statements, but this was quick and very supportive, which is interesting. Yeah, but these are smart people who have a lot to lose in terms of their reputation. Yes. Something doesn't add up here.

Something doesn't add up. All right, we'll watch it further. I think you were on the money about the board stuff. So we'll see what happens here. But I have to say, you were right. I don't know. All right, we'll watch it further. I think you were on the money about the board stuff. So we'll see what happens here. But I have to say, you were right. I did like that letter. I still think it was the right letter to do. But obviously, it's not just what you're going to do in the future.

It's what you did in the past that's just as important. Ooh, wise one. Name the little one Yoda. I could have. That's a good idea. There is no try. There is only do or do not. Boom! Okay. I don't like Star Wars that much. That is why you fail. I'm sorry. That's a good idea. There is no try. There is only do or do not. Boom!

Okay. I don't like Star Wars that much. That is why you fail. I'm sorry. Go ahead. There's a new name for LA's Staples Center. It's the Crypto.com Arena. Shall we go?

What do you think? It's Crypto.com. It's a cryptocurrency services company based in Singapore. They paid $700 million for the 20-year naming rights. The Staples Center first opened in 1999. This is not the first, by the way. Earlier this year, Miami's American Airlines Arena became FTX Arena, named after another exchange. What do you think?

This is a five-year-old company. Would this be another Enron Field? Yeah, that's the right analogy. So, first off, I would hope they got the money up front. The larger story here is that there were more unicorns birthed in Q2 than any other quarter. And the biggest birther, if you will, was fintech. And I'm just struck at the value. I'm just struck at how many 100, 200, $300 billion players fintech is birthing. And also crypto, if you look at Coinbase. I mean, there's just so much capital and market value accreting to fintech and crypto players that I think you're

not only going to see them naming stadiums, I think you're going to see them start to buy media assets. I think they're going to buy, I think they're about to become the nexus or the epicenter for the race for Super App. And in addition, they're going to start buying all kinds of – I think they're going to buy sports teams because they're going to say, you know what? Yeah, anything with money attached to it, right? Transactions. Yeah. You know, the Real Madrid is worth a billion dollars in NFTs. And so whoever owns Real Madrid is going to, I think a fintech company, it's the arbitrage of attention and passion. And that is, if you look at what's happened with Apple TV Plus and Prime Video, the amount of money they're investing for any reasonable evaluation of the business in and among that just business itself, what Ted Lasso produces in terms of economic value, it makes no sense.

But if they can leverage that passion and that attention into creating a small amount of differentiation or a reduction in churn or an increase in NPS or an increase in loyalty across Apple or across Amazon Prime, they can spill five, six, $10 billion. And what you're about to have with crypto is if PayPal can get 500 million monthly active users by acquiring Pinterest, it's worth $25 billion. Yeah, but they didn't, right? Didn't, they didn't.

I think they decided, okay, well, the market didn't like it and I think they think they're going to pick it up cheaper, but I would have stuck to their convictions because the reality is Pinterest has got 500 million people that are engaged, and they have their attention. But the whole thing sits on top of a shitty business model where they're charging flooring companies to run really bad ads that pollute the entire platform now. But a payment platform can come in and say, you know what? We can monetize those half a billion MAUs much better than you can. So you're about to see every crypto and fintech

player look at all sorts of things, whether it's naming a stadium, buying a media company, buying a newsletter company. They're about to become, they're going to start acquiring rights for stuff and buying stuff in areas that you would not even naturally believe of. We're going to see a lot of this kind of thing. We're going to go, really? That company is paying this much for this? And people will take the money. Okay.

A hundred percent. Why wouldn't they? I wish you had become a cryptocurrency billionaire and then we could buy a stadium. There's still time. The Prof G coin. The Prof, oh no. The Prof G coin. The Prof G coin. A smart contract that gives you unlimited Chipotle and erectile dysfunction. Oh, right. I knew that was coming. All right. Now, let's try to be classy right now. Let's have a moment of classiness. Before we go

to our big story, Scott, you held a fundraiser this past weekend. You're not just a silly, ridiculous man that most people think you are. That's right. For the Jed Foundation. Can you tell us about it? So we were really excited to do this. As you remember, about 18 months ago, I was really rattled by the death of Alex Kearns. And I decided I committed to getting involved in raising some money around teen depression. And I found the Jed Foundation, which is a nonprofit that protects emotional health and prevents suicide for our nation's teens and young adults, giving them the skills and support they need to thrive today.

And tomorrow, they work with schools to try and help schools have the resources and infrastructure to identify kids at risk, and then work with them to develop kind of life skills. It's a wonderful organization started by a couple that lost their son to suicide. Anyways, I found this identify kids at risk and then work with them to develop kind of life skills. It's a wonderful organization started by a couple that lost their son to suicide. Anyways, I found this foundation through a friend, Alyssa Rabin, and we committed to having an event. And it was delayed 18 months for obvious reasons. Anyways, we held the event last weekend. We raised $450,000, which is all going to the foundation. So I just want to point out Robinhood, I think $21 billion market cap, quarter of a million dollars. Gulfstream Community, $450,000. I am keeping score. I am keeping score. Good. That's a good amount of money. That's a

good sum that you made there. Anyways, we were happy to do this. It's a wonderful organization. If people want to learn more, please check out the Jed Foundation. They do fantastic work. Jed Foundation. I love it. Thank you, Scott. Okay, Scott, time for our first big story. Some big pivots among direct-to-consumer companies. Peloton announced a new stock offering on Tuesday of nearly 24 million shares. So it'd come over a billion dollars. Obviously, they've been struggling. Earlier this month, the company told analysts they didn't need any more capital. The reversal didn't seem to spook investors, though Peloton's share price increased after

the announcement. I'd love you to explain this, but let me go through the others. Peloton's also suing some rival companies for copyright infringement, which I think a lot of companies did. I recall there were several mobile companies that did this, and they're not there anymore, but nonetheless. Casper Sleep, the mattress-in-a-box company, is going private. It's valued at about $300 million, down from a billion in 2019. I'm not surprised by this one. It's consistently operated at a loss. According to filings in Q3, it lost over $25 million. Other DTC companies like Warby Parker

and Allbirds are opening more stores. So let's start with Peloton. There's all kinds of DTC things happening. What do you think about this stock offering, please? Well, you pointed out it's unusual for when a company, I mean, Peloton is trading at 48 bucks. And at one point, it hit its its 52 week high of $170. So it's sort of unusual to do a stock offering. They're effectively a little bit doing a stock offering into weakness, which you don't like to see. They've clearly decided to shore up the balance sheet.

It's strange though, that when the stock is at about, you know, it's off kind of 70% from its high to do an offering here. And shareholders usually don't respond positively, but shareholders like this, they wanted to see the balance sheet shored up. I just think bankers are circling everywhere around this thing because it's a great brand.

It's a great product. And again, it goes back to the monetization of attention and passion. And the thing, not all attention is created equally. And the attention of one to four hours a week of the Peloton community is an incredible asset because the people it's grabbing the attention of are some of the most powerful and influential people in the world. Everyone from the president to Beyonce are in front of the Peloton OS.

So you're still pro this company getting sold? Oh, in my view, I'd just be shocked if it was an independent company within 12 months because- And we keep saying that. It would be great for Nike, but the problems Peloton is having in terms of operational synergy around being acquired is supply chain. And the company with the best supply chain in the world is Apple. It just strikes me as almost strange that Apple hasn't picked this up yet. I bet Nike's looking at it, and I bet there's some private equity players even looking at it. But you have a CEO on a board probably saying, sorry, we're going to wait until our stock's back to $170.

We're not going to let you pick it up on the cheap. Well, they have to keep coming up with things that sell more. There's a point where you can't sell any more of those bikes, right? Or it gets slower. There's expanding, if you will, vertically or horizontally into different products, but there's expanding vertically into apps, fitness apps that don't require a device. You've got a lot of pressure from Apple Fitness. There's so many fitness. There's so much going on out there. They do have one of the best ones, obviously. But it's still a real, we'll see where this company goes. It's really suffered over the

last year, I would say, after a real peak during the pandemic. So we'll see what happens here. So what about Casper? Not a surprise. That's all I would say. Casper should have never been a public company. Yeah. I believe you said that.

I bet that $300 million number is a press release number. I bet there's all sorts of terms and conditions on it. Casper is sort of the rent the runway of yesterday. It's a cute idea that makes no economic sense. And the idea of getting a mattress in a box is really cute. They did nice branding. It's basically a great consumer value proposition because when you give Casper- Like Purple? My sons love their Purples, by the way. Well, Purple is interesting. Purple seems to be a more efficiently run company. Purple actually

makes money. And I don't know if it's through scale or their supply chain. But Casper is basically a group of bright young people who did great branding sitting on top of a totally outsourced consumer value proposition. Like the towel people. What is that company that sold off that towel? Well, there's just no real differentiation there. Actually, Brooklinen, I think, had actually a real supply chain advantage. But anyways, started actually a real supply chain advantage. But anyways, started actually by one of my students. Anyways, Casper never was able to figure out a way to make

money. It should have never gone public. I remember meeting with those guys probably four years ago, and they were doing around at a billion. And I closed the door and I said, I realize I'm going to sound like a boomer here. And I'm not exaggerating. I said, And I closed the door and I said, I realize I'm going to sound like a boomer here. And I'm not exaggerating. I said, sell right now. It's just this company is not worth a billion dollars, guys. Sell right now.

Tell your investors you've been approached by an acquirer and see if they'll take it. Because this thing went public. It never made any sense as a public company. The same thing. Yeah, it's what they've sold to. No one was going to buy that at a billion dollars. Come on. Oh, you know who was looking at them? Some big box retailers were looking at them.

Yeah. They felt they could scale them. What happened to Casper is exactly what is going to happen to Rent the Runway. They're going to come up with a bunch of excuses for why they can't get to profitability, and they will either be bought or go private again at a valuation far, far south of where they went public. Well, they spent a lot of money on advertising. or go private again at a valuation far, far south of where they went public. Well, they spent a lot of money on advertising. Subway, I remember reading one a while ago, podcast ads.

I don't have one in a while. They sued reviewers who gave them bad scores. What could they have done differently? Open stores? I think, did they have stores? They may have had one or two stores. Casper? Yeah, I don't recall.

They did have a couple stores. Casper was back to the future, and that is the algorithm for creating economic value from 1945 to the introduction of Google was come up with a mediocre product, a mediocre shoe, a mediocre salty snack, a mediocre car manufactured in Lansing, Michigan, and then wrap it in amazing brand codes and great advertising that creates irrational margins, stuff that mediocre channel and print money. And then all of a sudden came along these weapons of mass diligence where you no longer needed to defer to the brand in a shitty product. You could buy a good product that didn't spend as much money on the brand. So Casper was sort of a throwback because here's the thing. The product was manufactured in facilities that were manufacturing other mattresses. was manufactured in facilities that were manufacturing other mattresses. Yeah. And then when all of a sudden there were 76 funded VC-backed mattress-in-a-box companies,

it's like the only thing they had was kind of a cute brand. Yep, that's true. I agree. When I saw them all in San Francisco, I was like, oh, this was several years ago, many years ago. And if you're on a board or if you're investing in a consumer company, margin is sort of the source of truth. And they had negative margins. They had to offer you a mattress for $80 that cost them $100 to get it to you. So explain to me the difference between Warby Parker and Allbirds and these guys.

Oh, Warby Parker's is night and day. Warby Parker spends, I think, about $40 or somewhere between $40 to acquire a customer that spends $140. I do. I buy only my glasses there now. They're cheap. They're cheaper. Within a year, 30% to 40% of every customer buys again. So it's cack relative to— I just bought five pairs of glasses from them.

I buy five pairs. That is the innovation. Their price point, I don't want to say it makes glasses disposable, but if I can get 80% of a $700 high-end designer frame for 99 bucks, you go in and you buy three or five pairs. Yeah, yeah. I lose my glasses all the time. You don't need to love that pair.

You just need to like it, right? Because you go through them. So I go in, you buy three or five pairs. But here's the thing. This is the ratio you want to think about in a business like this. And direct to consumers is so weird. It's just a different acronym to try and put lipstick on the same pig of specialty retail we've been doing for 40 years. I don't understand what they mean by DTC other than branding, but you want to look at CAC, cost of customer acquisition, and you want to look

at lifetime value. Look at how repeat purchase, margin on that repeat purchase, cost of customer acquisition. And you want to look at lifetime value, look at how repeat purchase margin on that repeat purchase percentage of people to repeat. And you come up with an LTV and the CAC to LTV for Warby is much stronger than Allbirds. And also Warby gets 58 points of gross margin. Allbirds gets 51. And, and then if you look at Warby's growth and On Running's growth, which is really the gangster here, versus Warby at – like Warby's – I'm sorry. Allbirds is only growing 13% a year. So Warby and On, like gangster companies, doing fantastic. And the thing about Warby that's so attractive is that the incumbent is so fat, dumb, and happy, and lazy. They really are.

I haven't been inside. I used to hate getting, I have really bad eyesight and I used to pay hundreds and hundreds of dollars and it wasn't an extra special thing to go there. They would have had to

lick me up and down in those stores to make me feel better, but they didn't. Think about the distribution channel. Sunglass Hut? Yeah. Think about where you buy sunglasses.

They're like little, shitty, like little boutiques that overcharge you or a sunglass hut. And then Warby came in with these great Apple- Yeah, I go to the stores. I don't do any of their online regular moral. I'll tell you that.

Yeah, the stores are great. Yeah. The stores are great. What I do use their online and they do it well is I had forgotten my prescription and they made it simple to put it in and then they're at my house like days later. It's really quite amazing. Anyway, interesting times. We're going to go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about NFTs and take a listener mail question.

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So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Scott, we're back with our second big story. Quentin Tarantino has a suitcase full of glowing NFTs and Miramax wants it. Earlier this month, Tarantino announced that he would sell NFTs based off of his original handwritten script for Pulp Fiction.

It didn't sit well with Miramax, which owns rights to the film. Now Miramax will strike down upon him with great vengeance and furious anger. That's a very Quentin Tarantino thing to do. They're suing him. So the big question is, is minting an NFT the same thing as publishing a work? Tarantino's lawyers say yes, and the director retained the rights to publish his screenplay. Miramax says no, and said the director's rights are far too narrow to include NFTs. It's a very interesting thing. And I told you earlier, I'm going to be interviewing Emily Ratajkowski, who also did this with a photographer who took her pictures, and she then did an NFT, made quite a bit of money, a picture next to the picture of herself, and she wrote a very interesting piece for a New York magazine about this, trying to buy myself back, essentially.

And if you find NFTs confusing, you're not alone. Here's a clip of someone explaining them to Quentin Tarantino at an event where he promoted the sale. If you were to actually NFTIs every frame of Pulp Fiction, let's say, the shot where the two of them are holding the guns has become like that meme image. Holy Christ, dude, that would sell for millions for sure. Tens of millions? To not sound like a clueless dork, how is that different from all the stills that already exist? The image of the NFT isn't the thing. It's the sense of ownership. Now, when you own it,

now we're down to the blockchain, and this is where NFTs get interesting. At the level of the blockchain, think of that image as having matrix code inside of it, literally. And now I can detect through technology whether you have the real one or a fake one. And if you have the real one, you can come have dinner with Quentin every year, whatever, on the launch date of the film. You get to enjoy the image, but you don't get the matrix code inside. Talk about this, because a lot of artists are doing this, trying to take back their IP, essentially,

that they sold off to Hollywood companies. Miramix thinks it has a case, or are they just trying to scare artists until the studio can figure out a way to roll out its own NFT sales? Is this a moment? Is this going to be part of negotiations between creators and studios forever, just like everything else, podcasts, merchandising, et cetera?

This is one of those big things that is kind of boring and won't get a ton of attention, but it's actually a pretty big deal in the world of business because you're about to see. I mean, first off, I think actually people talk about crypto. There's always a narrative that emerges around any emerging business. And the narrative right now is that crypto is here to stay and the bigger coins, the Ethereums, the Bitcoins are enduring. And that, you know, watch out for NFTs, though. That feels very bubbly. I actually think NFTs might be more enduring because one of the things about our species is we love to signal power and strength and artisanship. And I have one piece of art in my only own one piece of art, and it's a Grayson Perry, this really interesting British artist, and it's called Map of a Politician. And it's one of, I think, 110. And he signs it and says, all right, number 73, and you believe based on the art industrial complex that really is only one of 110. And it signals power and artisanship from the owner, from me. And so I pay a lot of money for this thing. And I think the idea of an NFT is essentially signaling. It's going to say, all right,

that image of Samuel Jackson and John Travolta pointing the gun, you're going to be the one that actually owns that frame, which is just signaling. And then you'll be able to use that signaling across multiple mediums online where more and more people are gaining or losing status. So I think what's really enduring here is the notion of signaling value, signaling strength, and signaling a store of value. So what you're about to see in every IP contract, if you and I were to do an original scripted drama on big tech with Hulu or something, you can guarantee now there's going to be three pages saying anything referencing, any image, media file referencing this work, we own in any medium. Because you're about to see a lot of this stuff. I mean, mine kind of boggles me. I think sports teams literally have gone up 20% to 30% in value because of the future monetization capability of NFTs. And so this is,

A, I think it's enduring because I think people love to signal worth and value in class by being the sole owner of something that feels unique and interesting. And media assets are really unique and interesting. And it's are really unique and interesting. And it's about to take the value of media properties and sports teams way up. And quite frankly, I think Miramax is going to win this. I think Miramax has said, look, this is intellectual property from an asset we financed and we own the rights to. And if he wants to have pictures of him writing the script or pictures of him drinking a coffee at the press conference, okay, maybe. But anything that kind of comes from the film, I'm pretty sure that the interpretation will be that Miramax owns this boss.

It sucks to be a grown-up, but they own it. Yeah, it's going to be an interesting area. And I think it's going to be just like, there's so much, you know, I read a lot of anything I sign now, I read very carefully on who owns the rights to what, and remove things and everything else. I just did it the other day, because they are, they do cover the whole landscape, like a giant blanket, and it's not anticipating NFTs. I wonder what NFT we could make. What do you think? I think artists are going to go crazy about this stuff. You can guarantee that at some point, when we sign another document, Vox is going to have something in there about NFTs. But this is an extension of another big trend in Hollywood that's been happening over the last decade. And that is when I sign up for something or you sign up for something, the pay has gone up to do the production.

But the company, the studio, wants all the back-end rights. So there's going to be very few Seinfelds in the future where they make $200 million on the reruns. Yep. The studios have all said, we'll pay you more up front, but we own everything that happens from here on. And this is going to be that in spades. Every contract is going to say any possible monetization of this IP moving forward in any medium, maybe we give you a commission on it. Maybe you get 20%, but it's ours. And it's just going to take the value of certain NFT-able assets way up.

Yeah. What are we going to add? Imagine how many NFTs could come from different images from Mad Men or from Breaking Bad. Yeah, totally. You can imagine a world where AMC or whoever produced Mad Men makes more money from NFTs from midlife crisis guys who want to show. Remember that scene with Don Draper in the diner, that iconic scene? I own the NFT, and he gets a a printout and that can be his meme in a metaverse. They'll tack on all sorts of stuff. The last moments of Soprano's life, Tony Soprano. That's right. And then you know who's going to make a shit ton of money? I mean,

a shit ton of money is Hermes, Chanel, and LVMH. Because they're going to be able to say, this isn't as much NFTs, but around the metaverse, I would like to have my meme carry a Birkin bag in the metaverse. And if I were Hermes, I'd be thinking, how do I ensure that anyone who wants to walk around with a Birkin bag in the metaverse has to own one offline or has to buy some sort of an NFT? It is a great time to be an IP lawyer right now that understands NFTs. IP lawyers are interesting.

I think IP lawyers are fascinating. I've always been interested in IP. I think about it quite a lot my entire career. And you know what company benefits the most from all of this right away? What? OpenSea. It's the largest exchange for NFTs.

It's basically like the Coinbase of NFTs. Oh, interesting. All right. We got to think of an NFT before Jim is on to us. What do you think? Hundred percent. All right. We're going to go to a listener question. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hi, Claire. Hi, Scott. My name is Omri and I'm an engineering student from Israel. My name is Omri, and I'm an engineering student from Israel. Recently, the U.S. government has blacklisted NSO, another attacking software company.

My question to you is, can there be a legitimate attack software company, or is it an inherently flawed concept? And what are the comparisons to be made between a firearms company and an attack software company. Thank you. Well, just so people don't know, NSO Group sold the Pegasus spyware, which may have been used to spy on heads of state and journalists, including Jamal Khashoggi. NSO still denies this. The U.S. sanctioned NSO Group earlier this month. Last month, the U.S. government banned the sale of American hacking tools to China and Russia. Not hacking, but the U.S. government banned the sale of American hacking tools to China and Russia. Not hacking, but the U.S. government frequently purchases location data from brokers in what some consider to be a market-based way around the Fourth Amendment. So, Nicole Perlroth talked to us all about this. That's what her book was about. And I think she did not think there could be a legitimate attack software company, correct? And they were like gun manufacturers in that way. So most importantly, and I know we're all thinking this and sensing it, does Emily Ratajkowski want to meet me? Has she said anything about me? She has not. Has she mentioned me?

I have not spoken to her yet, but I'm guessing. Has she mentioned me? No. In anticipation of that, no. Hard no. Have you mentioned that I'm the godfather of Solomon? No. He is the godfather of Solomon. Okay. Answer this nice question from Israel, from an engineering student in Israel. To me, there's a metaphor here, and that is there's a great market for building nuclear submarines and tanks.

It's just that you're building it for one customer. You're building it, or two, I should say. You're building it for the U.S. government or the allies of the U.S. government that the U.S. government approves. So I would bet this is actually a decent business, but you are now a weapons manufacturer, and you're going to go through the bullshit of getting the U.S. government to buy it. But once you have the U.S. government as a client, it's the best client in the world.

So it's the biggest and best client in the world. And also private companies use these attacks, software companies too, not just the Saudis. To me, quite frankly, they just seem like weapons. And they need to be regulated in terms of who you can sell them to. I think there's a metaphor here, and that is just weapons. I think you're right. No, I think that's an excellent answer.

It's more so than firearms companies, absolutely. This is different. I don't think you're going to stop these things. I don't think people who run them give a fine fuck about what they're doing. They just want, you know what I mean? Like a lot of these firms that do corporate spying, et cetera, et cetera. All right, Scott, taking one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Make it a good one. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business,

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Support for the show comes from Alex Partners. In business, disruption brings not only challenges, but opportunities. As artificial intelligence powers pivotal moments of change, Alex Partners is the consulting firm chief executives can rely on. Alex Partners is dedicated to making sure your company knows what really matters when it comes to AI. As part of their 2024 tech sector report, Alex Partners spoke with nearly 350 tech executives from across North America and Europe to dig deeper into how tech companies are responding to these changing headwinds. And in their 2024 digital disruption report, Alex Partners found that 88% of executives

report seeing potential for growth from digital disruption, with 37% seeing significant or even extremely high positive impact on revenue growth. You can read both reports and learn how to convert digital disruption into revenue growth at www.alexpartners.com. That's www.alexpartners.com. In the face of disruption, businesses trust Alex Partners to get straight to the point and deliver results when it really matters. Okay, Scott, give us a prediction, and it can't be about Emily Ratajkowski or my child. What are we going to talk about?

She is a child, by the way. We do. When I say we, my team, we loved trolling the patent filings. There's this website where you can see what patents have been filed by different companies. Really? That's what you do? Oh, it's so illuminating. Is it? And it's also an incredible PR strategy.

Amazon will file a patent for a warehouse that floats in the sky, which is physically impossible. Yeah, Facebook does this, yeah. Because journalists troll these things and then write them up. Yeah. And a way to seem innovative is to start filing crazy patents. Anyways, Apple has filed a patent

for a camera to go into the base of your AirPods, your iPod Maxes. Oh, we've talked about that. I think the next shoe to drop in the metaverse is in the next three months. And I think Tim Cook is cooking this up and is just loving this. Yeah. I think Apple is going to show up and say, okay, playtime is over. The metaverse is here.

It's called the App Store. It's augmented reality for him. Yeah, augmented reality. That's what it is. We already have the closest thing we have to a metaverse right now in terms of leveraging other people's. There's never been a universe that leverages more creativity with a more seamless portal into that creativity than the App Store, the iPhone, and then the AirPods. And he'll sit on stage and he'll say, okay, this is how many Oculus's were sold last year. It was between three and a half and five and a half million. This is how many Crocs were sold last year, 60 million. And this is how many AirPods were sold, 115 million.

And it's interoperable. It's open source in the sense that there are hundreds of billions of dollars in capital pouring into the metaverse known as the Apple Store. He's going to put a camera on the AirPods. And he's going to say, folks, the metaverse or whatever you want to call it is here, and it's from a company you trust. It's from a company you're already going into different worlds with every day, and it's from a company that has the portal that is easily accessible and seamless. You're not going to whip out a fucking Oculus. I mean, think about, I was having, I was with the Nikkei, I got interviewed by the Nikkei yesterday, and we were talking about the metaverse. I'm like, who here in this crowded bar is going to say, oh, we need to do a meeting back in Tokyo with your editor.

Let's put on our Oculuses. It's just ridiculous. But we could sit there with our AirPods in, and there could be a camera, and then you have a phone. You already have a central server. We put our phones up and we could talk to his editor for three or five minutes. It'd be awkward, but you can do it. Think about Zoom calls now. I'm now doing Zoom calls off my iPhone while walking with AirPods. You do. They're very nauseating.

They're very annoying. No, they're nauseating because you're moving. You're like, where's Scott going now? But yeah, you're right. I agree with you. I think it's going to be- I'm nauseating when I'm not moving. That's what women have told me. I like when you have the backdrop of the beautiful ocean behind you, the Atlantic Ocean. I agree with you. I think augmented reality is very important to Tim Cook. The one lunch I had with him in person by himself, all he talked about was two things.

I think it was Alabama football, of which I tuned out completely, and augmented reality. He couldn't talk about it enough. He made a few eye rolls about Uber, but otherwise, that was it. And it was, it complete, this was years and years ago. Like, I'll never forget it. I was like, wow, that was interesting, except for the Alabama football part. It was interesting. He talked a lot about it, was thinking a lot about it, was on his mind quite a bit. He's not known as the innovative guy, he's known as the logistics guy, but I was quite struck by a lot of his ideas.

Oh, they've been innovative. I mean, if you think about everything that's required for a critical metaverse, first off, there's a really strong argument that, okay, if you look at the universe that is the Earth, it would make sense to have one government, one economic policy, social services that are shared, one military globally. But here we are with 197 countries. So the notion that anyone is going to be able to consolidate our online universe is equally ridiculous. And there are also a lot, there are a lot of companies from Twitter to Epic to FIFA to Fortnite to- You want them to interoperate. That's what you want. Much like the internet, right? Or interoperable, right?

Yes, that's right. You could take your Chanel bag from one place to the other, or you could take your contacts. Much like the internet before Facebook sucked it all up. You know what I mean? Like you can't have one platform because it's bereft of ideas. The rest are going to be just big, giant thuds. I mean, the Microsoft metaverse where we're going to go online and be legless but have access to Excel, that's just not that compelling. There's a reason for that.

I think I just love the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is showing up with literally the biggest fucking thud in history, and that's the Oculus. That's his vision for the metaverse. But it's not going to be the metaverse but some sort of like you said augmented reality it's coming from Apple he's going to get on stage I'll buy those in a New York friggin minute I will pay hundreds of dollars 100%

he's talking to me, tells me to go here take a left, go right senses where you are there's just a ton of commercial applications consumer applications the weak link there is Siri isn't as good as Alexa. Siri. I was just going to say Siri is so stupid.

But it's still – and not only that, all the things you need. You need capital. You need a ubiquitous portal or wearable. They have a central server called an iPhone that you already have on you. And not only that, what they also have is they have trust. People actually trust Tim Cook. And to a certain extent, Apple is a democracy because they have a single class of shares. No one can become a fucking megalomaniac depressing teens. Tim Cook can be replaced. If enough people buy enough shares at Apple,

it is true corporate governance, and it's not a Facebook. Anyways, metaverse, big thud. Appleverse is going to surprise to the upside. Love it. Okay. Scott, that was a really interesting prediction. Made me think. Made me think. I have to say. I am wise like King Solomon. You're going to have to keep me lively with all these children I have.

There's so many of them. Night nurse. Night nurse. Bring on the night nurse. No. No, I have to say, Louis Fisher was great during the entire period because he took Claire to school. He drives. Alex hasn't gotten his license yet, but it was nice.

My elder children both have been really great around this whole thing. It's an interesting time, Scott. I cannot believe I am never, ever going to retire. Anyway. Oh, you got to bring home the bacon.

Just so you know. I got to bring home the bacon. And bacon prices are up 20%, which is the most upsetting thing about inflation. You got to bring it. We got to NFT this shit. Anyway, all right, Scott, I'm so excited to come down to Florida with my giant family. And that is the show. We'll tape from there. That's good.

We'll be back on Tuesday for more. We'll have one more show before Thanksgiving and then many more after that. We got a lot of year-end stuff coming up. We're very excited. Read us out, Scott. many more after that. We've got a lot of year-end stuff coming up. We're very excited. Read us out, Scott. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Thanks also to Drew Barrows and Mia Silverio. Ernie Entretat engineered this episode.

Make sure you're subscribed to the show on Apple Podcasts. If you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot and Vox Media. We'll be back next Friday for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

I'm the young man's godfather. I'll have an Al Pacino, please. That's good. Support for this podcast comes from Klaviyo. You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you. Deliver that feeling to your customers every time. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. Over 100,000 brands trust Klaviyo's unified data and marketing platform to build smarter digital relationships with their customers during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and beyond.

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