Pivot - Q2 Quarterly Review: The State of the World According to Pivot
Episode Date: July 9, 2021Pivot launches its Quarterly Review series, with a look back at the past two quarters and predictions of what's ahead. Kara and Scott discuss the biggest wins and fails of the year so far and check th...eir prediction track record. They also get some forecasting from Friends of Pivot, including Congressman Ro Khanna, Lightshed Partners' Rich Greenfield, MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle, and fellow podcaster Preet Bharara. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Cara Swisher.
And, Cara, I am no longer an Olympic hopeful.
In the trials for synchronized swimming, they did a mandatory drug test,
and they came back and they said that they found some urine in my THC.
Oh, my God.
And I guess urine is a banned substance.
Get it?
Found urine in my THC.
I got the whole situation.
What do you think of that?
That's always something else, huh?
I think she will play an important role not only in athletics, but in this ridiculous standard that includes THC as a performance-enhancing drug, which it is not.
It's a life-enhancing drug, I'm convinced.
I think it can help you sleep better.
I think there's real utility in THC.
But I think she's going to pay a price, but I think they're going to sleep better. I think there's real utility in THC. But I think she'll go.
I think she's going to pay a price, but I think they're going to revisit some of these rules.
Yeah, that would be good.
That's a shame, though.
Big athlete.
Big athlete.
Yeah, it is a shame.
And then, you know, there's all kinds of things going around the Olympics.
There's political things and people protesting and people protesting against the protests.
And it feels like it's going to be a bit of a mess, I have to say.
So, I'm glad you're not going in other words.
But listen, we're going to do a fresh new thing.
I mean, obviously today I would talk about China and Didi
and all kinds of things that are going on,
which we should talk about at another date.
But I think today we're going to do something
that's new and fresh,
which is it's the end of the second quarter
and we're going to kick off something
with a little different today,
our quarterly review series.
We are going to hold ourselves accountable the way we hold other people accountable. So like any good business, it's good to take stock of how well you've done so far and
forecast what the future might look like. So going forward every quarter, we're going to do a roundup
of the biggest wins and fails, see how well we did with our predictions and also make some new ones.
And then some of our friends at Pivot will give us their takes on what's coming in Q3 and beyond.
All right, let's kick off to start with a look at the biggest topics and issues of 2021 so far,
and let's declare some wins and fails. First off, Scott, the biggest topic of the entire year so far
has obviously been coronavirus recovery. The coronavirus has changed life as we know it across America.
The government's strategy was to try to contain the virus.
These are scenes from the world living with coronavirus.
We've talked about it a ton and a half over the last year and a lot in the last six months.
What do you think the major wins and fails have been there?
I think the biggest win has been the vaccines.
I think vaccines are the most wonderful product ever invented in humanity. They represent global cooperation and science and truth.
I think the most disappointing thing is that, and hopefully, I think America's comorbidities,
our arrogance, our politicization of things that we should pull together on, and having what was
supposed to be the most innovative, wealthiest, tech-enabled,
the majority of pharmaceutical companies are here, the most robust.
We spend more money on healthcare than anyone in the world.
You'd like to think the most robust, responsive government in the world that can defend the
shores and 5% of the population and 20% of the infection.
So, how we responded to this, and you can't just blame the government, but how we responded as a people.
Yeah, mask.
There's just no getting around it.
We botched this terribly. and Turkish immigrants who immigrated to Germany. I know you know those folks.
That these vaccines developed in record time are just an incredible, I don't want to call them a gift,
an incredible achievement of humanity.
What are your thoughts?
You know what?
I'm going to be pro-internet again.
The internet worked.
Look, the internet helped us in terms of work and delivery.
I mean, I think, you know, everything that we needed
to get through the pandemic was provided, unfortunately, by these internet companies, which did their job.
Like in terms of that, they, of course, also gained their power, gained even more power over
lots of industries and will continue to do so. And repercussions going forward in commercial real
estate, everywhere, everywhere you go, restaurants, retailers, you know, communications, meetings,
business travel, everything.
And so I think the Internet worked.
It didn't break down.
Now, there's obviously these ransomware attacks and all kinds of cybersecurity issues that are ongoing.
And just recently this week has been in the news a lot.
But, you know, it didn't break down.
And it got us through this thing.
People had to stay home.
And I think without it would have been really a much different situation.
How would you do that without it? Of course,
people have been through pandemics before without the internet, but it certainly helped. The only place it didn't
help, which is a fail, is education.
It continues to be either
it just doesn't work for younger people,
maybe it works for college students.
It did not work for
people under high
school level. It just didn't.
It was not, it put into sharp relief how badly our educational system serves the least among us and also now the most among us.
And I, except for people who could pay for their stupid pods or whatever the heck people did.
And, you know, some private schools that were up and running way before public schools and things like that.
So anyway, it's that to me, the internet was a win, and the fail was the digital education and tele-education.
But the other things, I think, pretty impressed in where it's going to go.
That's what I would say.
That's a really interesting point.
It's as if these major internet companies were invented for a pandemic,
and had we not had a robust e-commerce and home delivery and ability to consume data and work remotely, things would have been much worse.
The second order effect I would point out there is that the ascent of these companies,
especially their share price, which now constitute a quarter of the S&P 500, resulted, in my
view, hampering or diluting our response.
Because I think the people who have a disproportionate amount of control over our government and its response, the shareholder class, 90% of all equity and real estate value
is owned by 1%. Quite frankly, we're living their best lives. And I think it dampened our response.
If Amazon and Google stock had been off 40% and 60% respectively versus up 40% and 60%,
I think we would have seen a more robust response.
True, true. I would agree. I would say that their growing power and money is disturbing. That's, of course, the fail of the win, if that
makes sense. Moving on. Please raise your right hand and repeat after me. I, Joseph Robinette
Biden Jr., do solemnly swear. I, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., do solemnly swear. Six months into the
Biden administration, what's been the biggest win and biggest fail so far?
What do you think?
So I wasn't a fan of Biden.
I didn't think Biden had any shot.
You did not.
Who was?
And speaking of predictions, Kara the Swisher.
But go ahead.
Did you predict Biden?
Yes, I did.
You kept insulting him.
You kept, first you were in love with Beto, then you were in love with Yang, and then you, whatever.
You kept being in love with all these man boys.
I wasn't Yang.
I was Bloomberg.
Whatever.
Man boys, every one of them.
Yeah.
Anyway, so, and you were right.
And I remember you were informed by Lucky.
Lucky was least offended by him.
And you thought that's how we're going to win.
Yeah.
As someone who doesn't offend the Fox viewer.
Anyway, I thought the biggest win, I think, going to the G7 and basically saying we're back and that we need to cooperate on things like climate, things like global taxation, and obviously more cooperation around the novel coronavirus.
And I'm hoping this biggest win is still ahead of us.
I think the biggest opportunity is to invade the shores of India and Brazil and other nations with vaccine and reassert our generosity and
power as a nation.
Fail?
What about a fail?
I don't really have what I'd call, I don't, it's hard, it's difficult.
I've got one.
This is going to come out as a different bias.
I can't look at any one action and think they really, they screwed up.
I mean, they have to make so many decisions every day, they're going to make mistakes,
but I don't look at something and think, oh, wow, they really blew it here, which I was
thinking every five days in the last administration.
What are your thoughts?
Yeah, that's true. That's true. When I think is, look, they just opened the White House
gates again. Like, they're gone, all that stuff. And I know it sounds, it's a visual. Like,
you could see them today. Like, you're so used, if you live in Washington or spend a lot of time
there, to be able to walk up to the White House. And the gates around the White House were just terrible.
I don't know how else to put it.
It just was like, what has happened to us that we can't control ourselves enough not to do this?
And so I like, that sounds dumb, but opening those gates today, I was like, okay, I'm going to breathe for a second.
I think that the ability to breathe and not think about who the president is for five minutes has been fantastic.
and not think about who the president is for five minutes has been fantastic.
I think the biggest fail, on the other hand, is, and I understand why they're doing this,
but the reliance on bipartisanship, the non-jamming of the Republicans,
these people have, many of them, not all of them, have very much bad intentions.
Would you end the filibuster?
Yes. Like, you know what? These people aren't operating.
Every time you give them a chance to operate in good faith, they really don't.
Like Joe Manchin, good luck with the 10 senators.
You didn't find them.
They just are, they're constantly pushing the envelope, whether it's with trans kids
or anybody.
They just, anytime they can, like whether they're going to redistrict, there was just
a story about Louisiana thinking of cracking cities into pieces so they could win.
They will do anything to hold on to power as demographics change against them.
Well, aren't they just smarter than us?
Yes.
Aren't they playing a better hand of poker with worse cards?
Yes.
I think we should play just like them.
The pushback I would do there is that if you don't have some sort of bipartisan cooperation at some point, these solutions aren't durable. Obamacare was almost overturned because it wasn't a bipartisan.
I mean, there's very few, look at all the shit we're overturning because it was very partisan
from the Trump administration that if you don't have some level of cooperation from people who
are considered moderates, and I grant you that it's very hard to find those anymore in the
Republican Party, but if you can't find a few of them, anything you pass is just not that durable.
It gets overturned in four years or eight years.
Fair, but they are under the thrall of Trump.
And until we knock that out of them, and they will be cooperative when you, I think in this case, you know, speak softly, big stick.
I'm just on a Teddy Roosevelt.
You know, you got to, they are in the thrall of Trump and they they you got to like show why that is not going to help them in some way.
And of course, you know, the election is so tight and it's I just think cautiousness, especially we're going into this next election, you know, the minute they get control of this, the House and the Senate, they'll be insane as usual.
And the tolerance of Marjorie Taylor Greene is just, you know, and I get the Ilhan Omar detractors on the same thing.
It's not even close to the same thing.
She's threatening to people there.
The Democrats and liberals in particular are always played by the right, always, every time, every time.
We suffer from both side of them.
We like to acknowledge.
Not me.
We always like to, I do think we as progressives always want to acknowledge the argument on the other side, even when we shouldn't.
Yeah, exactly.
I get that.
I get it.
They take advantage of our good. I don't have good nature.
I think I just wouldn't slap them hard and slap them continually until they stop and make sure that they didn't get up again on the ones who are doing all this incredible damage.
And try to find, of course, the ones that are cooperative.
But I think bipartisanship is overrated by this administration.
OK, earlier this year, we saw so many big tech hearings.
First, we have Mark Zuckerberg, chairman and chief executive officer of Facebook.
Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Google.
And Jack Dorsey, chief executive officer of Twitter.
We want to thank all three of you for joining us today.
We look forward to your testimony.
Who are the real winners and losers here? Mark Zuckerberg, the American people, perhaps?
No, that's a no, hard no from Carol Swisher. Who do you think from these tech hearings?
There was one good one, David Cicilline.
Oh, yeah, you stole my thunder there. I thought individually representative Cicilline through
the best hearing. I do think that actually after a slow start with people not understanding technology, I think some of the hearings were really well handled.
In terms of individuals, I think Tim Cook has done a genius job of disarticulating himself and his company from quote unquote big tech as has Satya Nadella and Microsoft.
They've managed to remove themselves from a line of fire.
And China.
China.
It's really interesting.
China has looked at what happened here and has made,
China has, the most interesting thing about Didi being banned
is that China has assessed.
Not just Didi, there's a bunch of them.
100%, but China has basically made,
observed what has happened here and has said,
big tech is too powerful and is bad for that society. We are going to check
their power and ensure what has happened in the US does not happen here. And regardless of whether
you think it demonstrates an autocracy and that's not how business should be handled and it sends
chills through the bones of anyone wanting to invest in a Chinese company, those are all valid
concerns. It's just interesting to think the Chinese are smart people.
That government there,
they are very smart.
And they look at us and they think,
no, we're not going to let it get there.
They believe we have been overrun
and it's too late here.
They believe, oh no, you're done.
You've been overrun.
It's Josh Hawley and Amy Klobuchar on steroids.
That's what it feels like.
It's like, whoa.
You know, you hear their concerns
about privacy.
Yeah, I think that's right.
They're doing what we should do in a much more
democratic way. They're just deciding it. And that's the theory. Systemic, legally supported
way. Yes. It feels like, look, it's just like, we're the sons of bitches, not you.
It feels Chinese. It feels like we will be abusing being the surveillance economy. It feels like
something they would do in China. You know, I'm sorry.
I agree with the directionality, perhaps, but not the methods.
This is chilling to entrepreneurship.
It is chilling to people who are going to start companies and investors and everyone else.
I get why they're doing it, but it's like we're the only assholes in town.
It's not really the best way to go about regulating tech.
But what do you think?
So Tim got out.
Mark got slapped around a lot, right?
But still, the stock's at an all-time high.
Yeah, I think Facebook's been hit pretty hard,
although their stock price keeps going up.
I think, to be optimistic, this is why I think wins.
Our tax base wins.
Our national parks and our army and our navy
and food stamps wins
because through global cooperation
and shining a light on
these firms we recognize they are not paying their fair share investors will win we will do there
will be a breakup it might be a year might be 10 years but whenever you disarticulate these assets
it's accretive for shareholders because you find that when youtube no longer cooperates with google
because they're separate companies you have more competition and more shareholder value.
Neva, the subscription search engine, will survive because Google now knows that they're being looked at.
And if they just want to take billions of dollars and use their heft to force people not to work with other upstarts, you're going to see the next six months, we're going to see more startups than we've've said this, and in the history of the modern U.S. economy. And the reason why, the reason why is because small businesses are emboldened to
actually compete, and investors are emboldened to invest in the greatest job creator in history.
I've heard of so many people leaving bigger companies. I think it's also pandemically,
and people are leaving their marriages, or they're getting married, or they're leaving their jobs,
You know, people are leaving their marriages.
That's what's supposed to happen.
Or they're getting married or they're leaving their jobs or they just have to get out.
They got to get out.
In any case, I think it'll be slow going.
I'm a little bit more like, uh-huh, they're not going to get dot for a very long time because this ain't China.
And in fact, we're like the polar.
We just literally don't.
They have so much money.
They have so much lobbying power.
And they do actually have the power.
So as much as I like Lena Kahn at the FTC, they're trying to block her, Tim Wu, the Biden administration's doing all the right things.
I just don't think the judges are going to allow it. So I am, I think these are nice hearings, but
I see it much slower and I think very little is going to pass. And especially with some of the
political partisanship around conservative bias, which is untrue.
I think that's a problem.
All right.
Fourth, Scott, earlier this quarter, we're moving through these fast.
You called cryptocurrency a mini revolution.
It's a cryptocurrency you can trade for conventional money.
Oh, so it's a hustle.
Yeah, it's a hustle.
Who's winning?
Who's not?
The shareholder class, corporations, China, Elon Musk, the environment?
Please break it down.
So I think cryptocurrency, the meme stock movement, Black Lives Matter, the Me Too movement
have all very righteous components of them and are movements that in and among themselves are justifiable.
I think the incendiary belief beneath all of them that's
powering or making, pouring fuel on the flames, if you will, is income inequality. And in 2008,
when stocks were allowed to fail, when the markets were allowed to drop to their natural levels,
people of my generation got an opportunity to buy Apple at 12 bucks a share. It's now at 140.
They had the opportunity to buy Amazon at 130 bucks. It's now at 3,400.
We have decided that my generation, that half a million or 600,000 Americans dying is bad,
but what would be tragic is if we were to let the NASDAQ go down. So, we borrow $6 trillion
against a younger generation and an unborn generation credit card so we can prop up and
artificially inflate assets, which has created a lack of opportunity for a younger generation that wants their shot of buying
things on sale.
And the result of that is that they're inventing their own asset classes.
And one of those asset classes that they're rallying around, and a lot of them have proof
points to say, look, boss, you capitalized on incredible dislocation and volatility. We
weren't given that opportunity, so we're going to create our own asset classes and our own
volatility. The innovation there, it's beginning a self-fulfilling prophecy. There's so much capital
going into fintech and DeFi that you're going to see a ton of interesting products and services.
I was sort of skeptic. I think a lot of that was boomer and jealousy that I missed
out on the run-up. But you're going to see a lot of big winners and big losers. I think a company
like Coinbase is probably not going to hold its value. I think it's the analogy I would use is
AOL. But you're not buying the coin itself. You're buying the companies around it, correct?
That was what you said. You're not buying the actual coin.
I don't have the confidence. I don't have the confidence to pick a coin. Everything just looks
ridiculous to me. I don't understand it.
The only investment I've made in the crypto space is in Ledger, which is the nano, which is kind of
the premier cold hardware storage wallet. 15% of all crypto is stored on these things.
But I think it's exciting. I think it's exciting for young people and also the big winners here.
For the first time, there are as many people of color as a percentage in investor in the stock market and in these assets because of things like crypto and because of these
online trading platforms.
It has brought in a new generation of investors.
Here's what I think.
That is very exciting.
I think corporations and government are going to wander in here and break it all up.
It'll be much more regulated in a year from now.
Well, they're doing it in China.
They are.
China.
We've got to move them in here.
So you're bearish on it.
I am.
I'm not bearish.
I just am like, guess what We got to move them in here. So you're bearish on it. I am. I'm not bearish. I just am like,
guess what's about to happen to these.
You know, the people
that were originally involved
are all sort of,
some of them are con men,
some of them are sketchy,
some of them,
they're all going to be replaced
by like J.P. frigging Morgan.
You know what I mean?
Just like they can't keep,
rich people can't keep
their mitts out of this.
And so, you know,
you're going to see
a lot more corporations
coming here
and they're going to want everything,
you know,
they're going to gentrify this neighborhood. I just think they are. That's what they're going to see a lot more corporations coming here and they're going to want everything, you know, they're going to gentrify this neighborhood.
I just think they are. That's what they're going to do, this crazy neighborhood.
And they already are doing it. And so I think that, you know, what's happening in China, of course, another crackdown by China on Bitcoin because it is a threat to the yuan.
Anyway, I think powerful people understand it's powerful and therefore we'll move
on it all right last one we've had so many conversations about goods and evils of social
media this year especially following the january 6 capital attack today we will be holding a joint
hearing entitled disinformation nation social media's role in promoting extremism and misinformation
social media's role in promoting extremism and misinformation.
What wins and fails can we call it here? I say my win over the Fannery of the Parlor CEO was a good one, but go ahead, go ahead.
I'm not sure I'd call that the global win for social media, but
anyways, look, I think that when two out of three people have joined extremist groups on Facebook, It's a carousel. in my opinion, is just one of the most damaging, one of the most terrible things that has ever
happened in our country. When you see social media kind of at the center of it, I think that
things have, hopefully we've hit peak bad social media with people trying to hunt down the Speaker
of the House and the Vice President. And I just don't think Twitter nor Facebook can just shrug it off. I think, and I
like to think that the American public realizes that they played a role. And also, to be fair,
so do Fox. And I think to a lesser extent, because I think they're much more thoughtful,
is CNN. And that is, do we need, does media need to figure out a way to not provide the fodder to polarize people online and to take these divisiveness and then use technology and processing power to scale it?
Well, I think we'll see.
I think they're continuing to allow the big lie to go around.
A lot of the Trump bullshit is still out there.
I think, you know, they move on to whether it's, you know, there's some stuff around AIDS drugs that are just terrible.
Like, I don't know.
I just feel like they just are hoping we don't, you know, we're lifting the rug up and, oh, God, it's ruined over here.
Okay.
The wins and fails then are what?
You think it can't get as bad.
That's your win is that it can't get any worse is essentially your win, correct?
I think Facebook and Twitter, I want to acknowledge I'm addicted to Twitter and I have a lot of self-awareness. I just got off with Sam Harris, who's one of my heroes, and he just reminded me that you become where your attention is.
I look for reasons to dunk on people.
I try to distill thoughtful arguments into snappy, quick ways to encapsulate them.
I am much too concerned with other people's view of me.
And it just struck me that, Jesus Christ, this thing I'm addicted to, I don't think I'm addicted to anything as much as I talk about substances.
I don't have an addictive personality.
But Twitter and Facebook, specifically Facebook, have been, in my opinion, probably net negatives for society.
The wins, you would have to argue.
I actually think Snap and Pinterest, who I was not optimistic about, have done a great job.
I think that the creativity at Snap, I think Pinterest trying to take more of an editorial lead around. I thought the decision they made this week was a bit ham-handed around some of the content they're going to remove around weight loss or diet ads.
But anyways, my point is, I think it's hard to deny that both those companies haven't carved out
really robust niches and great businesses. I think they've done a great job. And also,
the biggest winner, the biggest winner globally in the internet is a social media platform called
TikTok. Well, which is affiliated with China. We'll see where that goes, actually.
That'll be interesting.
I think they're in a little more trouble now.
Yeah, we'll see what happens there.
Interesting.
I would say you're correct.
But that algorithm, the TikTok algorithm?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Go ahead.
Very strong.
I would say you're correct.
You are addicted to Twitter.
You are.
All right.
We're going to go on a quick break.
We'll come back.
We'll do our self-evaluations by taking a look on how we've done with our predictions,
what we got wrong, and more importantly,
what we got right.
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Okay, Scott, we're back.
We make predictions every week.
Sometimes we're wrong, sometimes we're right.
Let's start with what a manager might call areas for improvement,
as they say in HR speak.
Those predictions we got wrong, or shall we say in some cases,
they're just not right yet.
So, in February,ott said twitter should and
will buy cnn what happened it sold itself to discovery what what cnn did essentially what
do you think well the problem is they got halfway there but the ceo wasn't there for the afternoon
strategy session um of twitter twitter should absolutely buy CNN. Its stock has gone up. They're moving
to a subscription model. I think the stock has doubled in the last 12 months, and they could
have picked up CNN. I don't know. I think there'll still be an opportunity, but I think that would be
if you had the most, in my opinion, the best journalism in what I'll call real-time news, which I believe is CNN, coupled with the kind of the pulse or the heartbeat of breaking news anywhere.
I think when news happens, people have a tendency to go to Twitter right away.
I think it would be an outstanding.
I think one plus one would equal three here.
I think because of what you talked about, the fact that it's now part of.
I think because of what you talked about, the fact that it's now part of, let me be clear, them being part of this Discovery Plus thing only means there's going to be a ton of hard-to-yet-imagine divestitures and spinoffs.
Because that thing right now makes only slightly more sense than if, say, AT&T had bought it.
I think Jeff Zucker's very happy to be at the top of this.
It's not going nowhere.
That's mine.
I'm going to push back on you, Scott.
I think you're wrong.
Twitter should maybe buy it, but it won't. Jeff does a fantastic job, but he, whether,
there's going to be a lot of moving parts at this new discovery thing, specifically because of the single share class of stock, specifically because David Zasloff should enjoy his time in the sun
because he's going to throw up, and it's not his first quarter earnings, but a second as a public
company, and a bunch of other people are going to come in.
All right.
Okay.
All right.
Okay.
We'll see.
We'll see.
I just think these guys managed to play golf and cuddle up quite a lot.
And I don't think that's what's going to happen here.
Anyway.
A golf and a cuddle?
A little cuddle.
A cuddle?
Business cuddle.
A buttle.
That's just so you know, that's what all us white guys do.
We play golf and then we cuddle.
A cuddle.
That's right. A cuddle. You got us golf and then we cuddle. That's right.
You got us figured out.
A cuddle.
You got us figured out.
And then we burn dollar bills to light our cigars.
Read some of the coverage of the deal.
It feels so cuddly and romantic even.
Oh, it was so fucking obnoxious.
The Steve McQueen poster.
You don't want to set that.
Of course, I got a call from these assholes.
They're like, come and visit.
I'm like, I'm not cuddling.
It's not happening.
Anyway.
Come and visit.
Come have a steak. I'll have a steak with them. Okay, we made come and visit. I'm like, I'm not cuddling. It's not happening. Anyway. Come and visit. Come have a steak.
I'll have a steak with them.
Okay, we made a few predictions next about Apple. Scott predicted Apple would
launch its own search engine.
No. Its own social network.
No. And it might acquire Peloton.
No. So why isn't
Tim listening to us, Tim Cook?
Oh, I see where we're going with this.
I'm just saying you make more predictions. I see the point of this show.
We see them.
I'm coming next, but go ahead.
Okay, go ahead.
Go ahead, tell me why.
Why isn't Scott listening?
Why isn't Tim listening to you, Scott, if at all?
I don't know.
He has a habit of adding a lot of shareholder value.
Look, I think they are going, absolutely going vertical.
I still think if Peloton comes down and Price still acquires them, but where they're going is with another connected device.
And that is the next connected device from Apple will be the car.
The car.
You're right.
The auto industry, it's really industry, has transitioned from a low-margin manufacturing business to a higher-margin software business that used to be worth $100 billion globally that's now worth $700 billion because of Tesla.
And I think that Apple looks at Tesla and says, sorry, guys, here we come. Your lunch has just gotten too big. We're going to take some of that. And so, I do think that Apple is going to
make some, is going to increasingly go vertical into your home, into your car, in search. I think
I was wrong 100% on the social thing. I think they look at social and think,
Jesus Christ, we want no part of that. And it's an ad model, and they couldn't charge. I don't
think they could charge. They're all about apps and payment and premium, and I don't think they
could charge for a social media network. So that one was a big fail and a big miss. I still think
Peloton ends up in the hands of a platform who can better monetize its incredible attention and
its rabid customer base of
some of the most influential people in the world. Your thoughts?
I agree with you on Peloton. I think it will
not do a search. What a search engine
will change. Amazon does
a search engine and so are you searching on it.
So I think it will, Peloton
and things like that. I think cars are right. I think
eyes and visuals,
yes, those are the things. It's going to cars are right. I think eyes and visuals, yes.
Those are the things.
It's going to be coupled with devices.
That's what they're going to do.
Health care especially.
All right.
In February, I predicted Ted Cruz would lose re-election amidst the Texas power grid failure controversy.
He has not.
He has not been up for re-election yet.
But I feel like he's going to eventually lose re-election.
I stand by that.
I stand by that. The end of June, Eric Hutt stated— Well, that's not much of a prediction. I mean, eventually, everythinglection. I stand by that. I stand by that.
The end of June, Eric Hutt stated—
Well, that's not much of a prediction.
I mean, eventually, everything ends.
No, no, there's some people running against him.
I think he's such a putz.
And so, it's really clear to me that he is the most vulnerable Republican.
That's what I say.
I think nobody likes him.
So, I'm going to stick with it.
I disagree. I think Texas has him. So I'm going to stick with it. I disagree.
I think Texas has proven itself to be batshit crazy.
If they vote for Ted Cruz over Beto, political predictions?
The most vulnerable senator in America right now is someone who's consistently kind of
cut and run on big issues and is the most coin-operated senator in the United States,
and that's Marco Rubio.
All right, last one.
In early May,
both of us predicted that the Facebook oversight board would let Trump back on the platform.
Early June, Facebook announced the former president suspended for two years and can't
return until, quote, the risk to public safety is receded. I've never been happier to be wrong.
That was a surprise to me. I'm glad they threw it right back in their face, and I'm glad Facebook
did the right thing. Great. Okay, we were wrong. We're glad to be. We have low expectations for these people.
So, the fact that... I think they did it only because that oversight board was better than
they are, than the actual managers. And they pushed them right into a corner. That's what I
think, which was good. It was a good corner to be pushed in. Oh, that's right. I forgot about them.
The UN board. You know what they did? They showed a set.
Who used this portal of DMs. You know what? They showed a set. They got it to happen. And that's right. I forgot about them. The UN board. You know what they did? They showed a set. Who used this portal of DMs?
They showed a set. They got it to happen. And that's what, it was a good decision. And we'll
see what happens. Of course, they couldn't quite do suspended for good the way Twitter did, but
I'll take it. I'll take it. And the win column, it's better not to watch as crazy press releases
go out. And of course, GRR or whatever. What is this? What is this? Getter. That's right. Getter.
That's not happening. It got hacked, apparently.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Oh, God. Donald
Trump. I'm sorry to laugh.
That makes you happy. I'm like, oh, come on.
Stop it. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about the
predictions we got completely right.
On January 15th,
Scott predicted, quote, consumer stocks
and the consumer economy is going to roar
for the next 12 to 24 months, adding colorfully, people are going to go apeshit with their spending and the consumer economy is going to roar for the next 12 to 24
months, adding colorfully, people are going to go apeshit with their spending and their consumer
discretionary stocks are absolutely going to rip. And it did. That same day, Kara predicted Lady
Gaga would be, quote, off the charts at the inauguration. And she was. So good for us.
Better for you. Like predicting Lady Gaga is going to be good is not a really hard one. But I did
predict Elon Musk was going to be good on SNL. And he was, and you did not. You did not trust me on that one.
You got me there. You got me there.
So, but the consumer stocks, where are they going now? People are worried. They're worried.
So, you had a trillion dollars pumped into, literally into consumer's bank accounts
through the CARES Act. And then you had an additional
half a trillion dollars in savings because people weren't going to the Olive Garden or going to
Disney World. So you have a trillion and a half dollars. You have individuals not only with money,
but also pent-up demand for consumer products. And you have a supply chain that's been constricted,
giving them all kinds of pricing power. It's sort of the perfect storm of good things for the consumer companies that were, one,
had the balance sheets to survive and also had the foresight to start investing in technology.
When you see how companies have reshaped, Panera, a company I'm involved in, now gets
more than 50% of its food starts digitally, whether it's pickup, whether it's delivery.
I mean, it's just amazing how some of these consumer companies have reconfigured their supply chains.
Crisis is a terrible thing to waste.
A lot of them cut costs by 10% to 20%.
And then when the economy and consumer spending came back, their EBITDA just ripped.
Good picking.
Good analysis.
All right, another one.
Just ripped.
Good picking.
Good analysis.
All right, another one.
On May 7th, Scott said he was going to buy some Dogecoin before Elon Musk appeared on SNL and sell by the time Weekend Update aired, which he did.
People actually began selling it off the beginning of the show.
And then there was a brief rally during Weekend Update when Musk joked, yeah, it's a hustle.
It dropped again, falling to 0.47 the next day.
Well, that was good.
Good job, Scott.
Thank you.
You knew that was going to happen.
You did a good job.
And then you're not in any of the coin now, correct?
Don't own any of it.
Don't understand it.
Don't understand it better than 99% of the public
who don't understand it.
Do you understand it?
Do you own any coins?
Oh, yeah, you own coins and we can't find them.
I don't.
I do.
We can't find them.
I will find them along.
You know, I also have a bag of marijuana somewhere
from 20 years ago.
And 10 or maybe 100 Bitcoin.
I don't know.
All right.
One prediction we made a few times is that TikTok would get further into e-commerce.
In May, they started testing in-app shopping in Europe.
Well, that was an easy one, right?
That was pretty easy.
What do you think about that?
Look, the biggest, I would would argue the business technological winner of
the last 12 months has been the algorithm of tiktok and its ability to take signal liquidity
and entertainment and let creators disperse their creativity directly to the end consumer with this
fantastic vibe and creativity and then the algorithm's ability to not take the two data
points or the two the liquidity the two data points or the liquidity
of two data points that Netflix gets.
Did you watch it all the way through?
Which did you select?
But take hundreds.
Do you comment?
How fast do you watch it?
Where do you go after?
And the fact that these things
are only 15 or 30 seconds
gives them the ability
and they take advantage of it
with what I think is one of the most
remarkable algorithms we've ever encountered and calibrate on things that you didn't even know you liked and you do.
And then if they're able to collapse that with an ability to start calibrating in on the things you want and then serve you a 30-second ad featuring that product, sort of similar to what Facebook.
And I think Facebook does an amazing job with their ads, quite frankly, on Instagram.
Yeah, they do. Almost every ad I see with their ads, quite frankly, on Instagram.
Yeah, they do.
Almost every ad I see on Instagram,
I'm like, that's relevant.
I want a vacation there, I want to buy that shoe.
That, take that to video.
That's what TikTok has the ability to do.
Yeah, we'll see where that's going.
Could be interesting.
Let me just say, I agree with you.
You know, I just was eating peaches
because my mother-in-law bought them
after seeing an ad on Instagram.
They were peaches, direct-to-consumer pe consumer peaches they're delicious i'm just saying that's what
prompted her she says i never lose instagram but then i saw this ad i just had to buy them and
they're and they're delicious let me just say yeah anyway scott one more quick break we'll be back
with our friends of pivot and their predictions for q3 and beyond as well as some of our own
and beyond, as well as some of our own.
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Okay, we are back with the prediction segment of our quarterly review.
Looking into Q3 and beyond with our friends at Pivot.
Let's start with the labor shortage from congressman roe connor hi karen scott roe
connor here my prediction is that next quarter we will see a decline in the labor shortage
many women are going to return to the workplace as you, the primary cause of this labor shortage is women who had to leave
the workplace because child rearing disproportionately fell on them. And this is why we need
child care policy. Two million women who had child care responsibilities had to leave with kids out
of school. If we can get child childcare in place in this infrastructure bill,
we will see the return quicker.
We also need policies that will help integrate women
back into the workplace,
particularly young mothers who left.
That should be the focus of our policy,
but some of it will happen on its own
as schools are opening, as camps are opening, as we are seeing the pandemic hopefully winding down.
You like that Ro Khanna, don't you?
Ro.
I like that Ro.
He's a good guy.
I'm just reading his new book.
It's coming out in February.
He's a very likable guy.
Listen, I think he's right at the same time.
Really?
I don't think the child care policy is going to pass.
What do you think?
You don't think it's going to pass? You don't think it's going to be included in the infrastructure
bill? No.
Well, that again, that's nothing but a refusal to invest in the middle class. And it's also
becoming an existential issue for us. And that is, women are having fewer kids because they've
basically decided it's a fucking awful deal for them.
And if we don't make more long-term decisions that propagating the species is important. And one of the ways you do that in capitalist society is ensuring that women have guarantees of their job when they come back, providing childcare.
Regardless of the morality of it, you're going to see our economy start.
I mean, look what's happening in Japan and Italy where women have figured out having kids is a bad deal.
We need to do it for the long-term economic health. The thing I'm most frightened of,
I mean, I think there's actually some wonderful things about this labor shortage. It's like,
for the first time in 30 years, there's always a tension between capital and labor. For the
first time, labor, I don't even say this has the upper hand, but has a hand here.
Yeah, small hand.
It finally has some bargaining power.
Yeah.
It finally has some agency.
Like, it can ask for $12 an hour instead of $10 an hour.
Kind of like it, don't you?
So, I hope it goes on for a while.
Yeah, me too.
What's that?
Yeah, I agree.
I think they have their upper hand for now.
For now, they do.
And as soon as people return to the workplace, they will not.
But there has to be something in place that isn't unions.
It's something else.
What is the next version of worker power that is consolidated? That's really what's
interesting. It's very easy to break workers apart. It really is by companies. And this is
a moment where they need the workers more and they have to provide more. You know, someone,
I was talking to someone in a store, they're like, oh, I'm having a hard time. Like, why don't you
give them more stuff? And someone else next to me was like, yeah, why don't you give them more stuff?
Like, it was like, you know, it was sort of like, oh, they had having a hard time. I'm like, why don't you give them more stuff? And someone else next to me was like, yeah, why don't you give them more stuff? Like, it was like, you know, it was sort of like,
oh, they had never even occurred to them
that they could be better employers.
So it's interesting.
We'll see what happens.
And of course, there are small businesses
who really do suffer if they have too many costs,
but time's the breaks right now.
And I think that workers do have power.
In our economy, we generally bucket stakeholders
into three different buckets.
The first is consumers,
the second is investors slash shareholders, and the third is workers. And we have decided that
consumers are the king, that shareholders are the prince, and workers are the pauper.
And we make purposeful decisions. When we cut unemployment benefits to try and help businesses gain the upper
hand to get people back to work because they will literally have to live in their car unless they
take that job for 10 bucks an hour, we are prioritizing shareholders over workers. And
shareholders have seen the NASDAQ quintuple in the last 13 years, while workers have seen minimum
wage go from $7.25 to $7.25.
The best union we have in the world right now, and I'm not a fan of universal basic income,
but the most wonderful thing about this CARES Act is it's finally given workers,
frontline workers, some leverage that they haven't had in 30 years. They can say, well,
you know what? It's not a choice between this shitty job and starving.
Away from this situation, we need a child childcare policy, period. It's so embarrassing that we do not have one.
It is just, I just, the other country,
we're in embarrassment.
And that's really, you know,
that's the lowest rung in the totem pole.
And that's really, it's so ass backwards,
as one of my relatives would say.
It's ass backwards.
Anyway, next up.
Agreed.
A prediction from LightShed Partners' Rich Greenfield on the future of streaming, one of the things we talk about a lot.
In terms of predictions, I think the one everyone should be focused on is Disney buying out Comcast from their Hulu stake early.
It's becoming more and more apparent that Disney needs to have one sort of full offering for direct-to-consumer, not Disney
Plus and ESPN Plus and Hulu, all as separate entities. I think they're going to buy Hulu out
early. There's already an arbitration battle that's been going on between the two companies.
I think it ends soon. Disney buys out Comcast at a pretty significant valuation,
but then collapses the services into one unified streaming offering.
Yeah, I like that.
I'm agreeing.
So not that I'm petty.
Comcast should also have bought it, FYI.
FYI.
Are you going to say Peacock again?
Go ahead.
Well, that's the thing here.
It might be man-bite stock here.
It might be Comcast buying out Disney
because Disney's stock is up, but Comcast has to do something.
Comcast needs a bold move here.
So, I think it might be the other side of Rich's coin here.
And not that I'm petty, but Rich slapped me down on Twitter when I said, before Quibi launched, that it was going to be DOA.
And he said, Quibi will be a success, and that he had seen Quibi content. He's throwing Quibi in that it was going to be DOA. And he said Quibi will be a success and that he had seen Quibi content.
But Comcast,
the interesting player here to watch is Comcast.
He's right, though.
Hulu will not be an independent property
for more than 24 months.
Yeah, great.
Agreed.
I agree.
I think Comcast got to get it.
There's rumors, you know,
that Perry Redstone is prepping the thing for sale
and now she's got to be a seller versus a buyer.
And I think the stock was up, and now it's down again, or whatever.
In any case, there was a lot of talk on several smart newsletters I read about that, about would Comcast move in here?
Then it can't really own CBS and NBC, so they'd have to diversify here, get rid of it.
And so they have to make a move.
Comcast has to make a move.
Absolutely.
And maybe it will be buying Discovery Warner
when it goes through that period of fallowness
that you have been predicting.
But I agree.
Someone's got to make a move here.
They've all got to make the big moves
because they're not big enough.
They need to be bigger.
Any other predictions on streaming?
I think he's right.
I think you're right, Scott.
I think you've taken his prediction
and made a better one.
expand it to special access to parks, cruises, vacations.
And I think, if you will, OTT and video games are the only media that's streaming,
and they're going to verticalize into other entertainment.
If AMC hadn't skyrocketed and became way too expensive,
one of those guys would have picked it up and gone vertical into theaters and turned AMC theaters into Disney experiences.
It's still, you know, even though F9 and some others like A Quiet Place 2 have done really
well at the box office, it's still, no matter what, those things are going to get pulled
into all of this.
Everything's about streaming and being bigger, whether it's experiential of the theater or
offering these movies.
It's going to be all, wherever the consumer wants, wherever they want it.
And that's where it's going. And whatever Hollywood says,
it's not going back to the old days.
Although, Quentin Tarantino apparently bought a
movie theater, the Vista, in Los
Villas of Los Angeles. But that's just romantic
quaintery. So, we'll
see. Anyway. That's like a rich
Republican buying a football team.
Exactly. I'd like it. And he
only is going to have it on film.
The biggest and boldest move in streaming over the next 12 months will have one word, Comcast.
They've got a quarter of a trillion dollar market cap, very smart, very aggressive.
And they've got 10 million subscribers right now.
And supposedly that's inflated when you look at how many people are actually doing it.
And there's no way they're going to admit defeat.
That Brian Roberts is very smart on the deals. Although Peacock has to make fun of it. He deserves to be made fun of. Anyway,
let's go to a friend of Hibbett MSNBC, Stephanie Rule, for a prediction on infrastructure.
Hey there, Cara and Scott. It's Stephanie Rule here talking infrastructure. To me,
infrastructure, it's like getting a dog in a bathtub. You never get all four of those legs in the tub, no matter how much that stinky dog needs it.
And I'm sad to say, I'm not sure anything is going to happen.
I think from the president's perspective, he absolutely wants a bipartisan deal done.
I think it would have taken something that was less than a trillion dollars.
Now it's bigger than that.
And if he were to sign
something, it would be a huge win, right? But there is absolutely no chance that Republicans
are going to stand with Biden in doing this partial hard infrastructure deal that's then
linked to the soft infrastructure deal. Why would they do that? That's like the greatest,
most giant, enormous win for Democrats.
And the other thing they're leaving out with this, we'll just go at it alone.
You can't just go at it alone without the Senate parliamentarian weighing in on this.
Remember in the American Rescue Plan, when Democrats wanted to push raising minimum wage in there, it was the parliamentarian who said, permanent minimum wage has nothing to do with temporary COVID rescue.
We're not going to do that. So they don't know what this nonpartisan parliamentarian is going
to say. And separately, my last point, this whole argument that it's Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema
are the only ones standing in the way. They're not. There are a whole lot of centrist Democrats
who represent blue-ish or swing states,
states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California,
who are also not going to sign on to just the infrastructure package that Democrats would do going at it on their own.
Back to, will they get something done on infrastructure? Unclear.
But the current standoff doesn't feel good.
And by the way, Republicans would love to see this happen. They would love to say, we agreed on a deal on a bipartisan
basis and Democrats asked for too much. They're the ones who don't want bipartisanship. So,
yes, it's this ultimate game of politics right now. I leave it to those in D.C. to figure
this all out. But of course, they're going to go home because nobody has a better schedule than Congress does. And we'll
see what happens. But right now, I'd say infrastructure deal, it's a dog in a bathtub.
See you, Kara and Scott. All right, Stephanie, dog in a bathtub. I'm going to let that metaphor
stand, although it's... What is she, Warren Buffett? What's going on with her? I thought
I was the only one that ate edibles around here. Dog a bathtub what's going on stephanie you're wrong the
infrastructure bill will pass i think it will pass like a dog it'll pass this one will pass
i think they're not okay politics is politics but this is good politics and i think it'll pass i
think you know it'll be a watered-down version it'll be things you don't like and i agree um
uh you know i think it i think it'll pass what do you think? I think she's wrong
you can wash the friggin dog
eventually put him in the shower Stephanie
just so you know I'll come over and wash your dog's
if you'd like
we shower our dogs every day
one loves it one hates it
little information on me
so look
I think it passes and I think the reason it passes
or one of them puts it over the goal line, is the disaster in Florida.
Great.
I think it was a very stark and ugly reminder that America isn't a country.
America can't claim to be the wealthiest country in the world.
America can't be a beacon of hope, a beacon of progress and prosperity if our building's pancake.
So I think that this is, and Biden was smart to go after this issue first as kind of a
temple for his legislative agenda, because I do think there are a lot of Republicans
that have bridges that are falling apart in their districts.
Yeah, I agree with this.
And infrastructure is wonderful.
The jobs it creates are usually great middle-class jobs.
Good for the economy.
Yeah, it's good for the economy.
It makes us feel good about ourselves.
It sends the right signal to people.
Good for jobs, good economy.
Did you see all those Republican governors signaling to get vaccinations because they're
so low in those Republican states, those heavily Republican states?
They're all the very conservative Republicans, like, to get a vaccination.
Because, you know, 99% of the people dying from covid right now don't have vaccinations 99 guess who guess what they didn't do get a vaccination yeah well they didn't get vaccinated they know people
know get economy it'll help the economy for fffs whatever you say for fuck's sake anyway all right
last prediction we we don't agree with you step Stephanie, or your dog, your dirty dog.
Anyway, Preet on antitrust.
It's like a dog in a bathtub.
Let's go.
Preet is Preet.
We invited Preet because I know how much you regard Preet.
Oh, of course we did.
Let's bring in Preet.
Yeah, right.
All right, Preet, let it roar.
There we go.
Hi, Kara and Scott.
Let it roar.
There we go.
Hi, Kara and Scott.
Over the next six months to a year in antitrust developments,
we might see renewed antitrust action against Facebook and other large tech companies by new and aggressive Federal Trade Commission Chair, Lina Khan.
On the legislative side, keep track of a package of six antitrust bills
that are being pushed by a bipartisan group of legislators led by Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Lastly, President Biden is expected to sign an executive order that will target corporate
consolidation in the tech industry. All right. Well, you know, not so much of a limb there,
Preet, but yes, yes, I think Lena Kahn will come back with a hard charge in a new suit with a lot
of proof and stuff like that. Obviously, these bills are going through.
We'll see if they'll pass.
I don't have as much confidence in that.
And we'll see about executive orders.
Scott, what do you think of Preet's prediction?
Let me just break it down.
I'm going to say absolutely nothing, but I am sexy and articulate, and I could put your
ass in prison someday.
He just read the newspaper from three months ago.
What was that?
You are so jealous of Preet Bharara. That's it. It's sad. in prison someday. He just read the newspaper from three months ago. What was that?
That's it. I'm so jealous of Preet Bharara.
That's it.
It's sad.
Preet, I thought it was pretty good.
He literally just said,
it's like we said,
we want you to say nothing.
Don't be mean to your colleagues.
I'm calling HR immediately.
The guy said nothing.
Immediately.
Anyways.
Preet's going to kick your ass.
That's code.
How obvious is my jealousy?
It is so obvious.
How obvious is my jealousy? Anyway, so obvious. How obvious is my jealousy?
Anyway, now, Scott, it's our turn.
What is your big prediction for the next quarter and beyond?
Okay.
I was writing a bunch down, you know, something that keeps it authentic here as I don't really prepare.
But anyways, some of my predictions.
Okay.
I don't know who will be the first $2 trillion company, but the first $3 trillion would be Amazon.
I think in the last half of the year, the thing about the markets that just amazes me
is that it has an incredible ability to see around the corner and ask itself over and
over what's next.
And I think that in the latter half of this year, despite an increase in GDP, despite
incredible new business formation, I think you're going to see the private markets do well.
I think the public markets are going to incur incredible volatility,
and we're going to see some of the most step change downs in the market.
I think we're going to have some of those volatile days in
the market in the next six months as the market begins to go,
okay, six trillion in debt,
a reshaped economy, what happens?
What happened at the end of 99?
If you look at almost every single financial metric on a bar chart where the x-axis is time, it's at historic levels except for 1999 and 2007.
I mean, it literally looks as if history is beginning to rhyme, and we don't like the next verse.
I think the last half of the year, we're going to see incredible volatility in the markets.
We talked about Comcast, and Disney is going to introduce what I think is the most exciting recurring revenue bundle in the consumer world.
I think every family is going to have to own it, and it's going to take OTT to offline, online, which I think will be super interesting.
I like that.
That's good.
That's good.
I like that prediction.
I don't really have one, except I'm going to make preets for him.
I think Alan Weisselberg is going to flip.
I'm just making that up.
I don't know if it's true.
You think he's going to flip?
Flip on Trump.
I don't think it's going to matter, but I think he's going to flip on Trump.
That's what I think.
Yeah. That's thought of for a different show, but I think he's going to flip on Trump. That's what I think. Yeah.
That's thought of for a different show, but I look at that and I'm like, I don't know.
I've read a lot of people.
They're like, this isn't good.
He's going to jail for a little while.
And I don't think he wants to go to jail for a little while.
I don't think it's worth it.
He's an old man.
Alan, the Weisselberg guy.
I think he's a comfy old man.
He's not going to even a nice prison.
He's not going to.
That's what I think. So I'm just making that up. I think he's a comfy old man. He's not going to even a nice prison. He's not going to. That's what I think.
So, I'm just making that up.
I'm not a lawyer.
I just read a lot of lawyers like Preet Bhar.
Anyway, okay, that is the show.
Scott, this is our only show this week, but we have lots to talk about.
By the way, Chuck, we're going to find out in the next six months.
Chuck Todd from Miami is not Chuck Todd from Miami.
His name is Alistair.
He's from Delaware.
He's married to a woman who has a master's in library science.
He has,
and he breeds Labradoodles.
That whole charade,
that shit is over.
I know who you are, Chuck Todd.
And also my other big production
is Anderson Cooper and I
get closer and closer.
Our friendship continues to blossom.
You have yet to produce
Anderson Cooper.
None of that is true.
None of that is true.
Anyway, Scott,
that's the show.
Don't forget,
if there's a story in the news
you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, go to nymag.com slash pivot and submit a question
for the show. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Camila Salazar and Ernie Andreton,
engineer of this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show
on Apple Podcasts. If you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, frankly, wherever you
listen to podcasts. If you like the show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media.
We'll be back next week for a breakdown of all things tech and business.
Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic.
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