Pivot - Russia crackdown on social media, Amazon buys MGM, and is 5G worth the hype?

Episode Date: May 28, 2021

Kara and Scott talk about Russia increasing penalties and crackdowns on Google, Twitter, and Facebook. They also discuss Amazon's $8.45billion purchase of MGM Studios. In listener mail they answer a question about whether 5G is actually worth the hype. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, all backed by their expert live customer support. It's time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. Do you expect me to talk, Mr. Bond?

No, I expect superior absorption, not that single-ply bullshit bounty. That's the big story. It is. We'll be talking about that story. That's Jeff Bezos is buying MGM, and that includes James Bond. We can't talk about it now. The actual answer is, I expect you to die, Mr. Galloway. I expect you to die.

I expect you to die, Mr. Galloway. I expect you to die. I expect you to die. And then it proceeds to tell you his whole plan to how to kill him, and then James Bond gets out of it. That's how it goes on the James Bond show. In any case, I love James Bond, and this is a really interesting moment. So, before that, there's a lot going on. There's a lot going on. Speaking of Amazon, the D.C. Attorney General is bringing another antitrust lawsuit against Amazon that says Amazon is abusing its power by requiring third-party sellers to offer their products at the same price that they sell them elsewhere. So that's an issue.

So you're in D.C. Yeah. What do you think? You know, I use Amazon a lot. I think it shows how much power Amazon has. Amazon, of course, makes the argument that people can buy their stuff elsewhere if they don't like it. You know what I mean? That's their argument, as is a lot of people's argument. Same thing with Apple. That was essentially what he was saying. If they don't like Apple, they can go over to Android. generals part um but at the same time it's going to be a pileup of lawsuits in this area i think they're going to be subject to lots and lots and lots of these all over the place because you know ambitious attorney generals it's a good look to be against amazon um and so that's you know with the power they have with the washington post here with um you know over over commerce lots

of people use amazon here i'd be curious to know what the usage figures in washington are but they're probably pretty high consider compared to the public. I don't know what they are. But I'm sure lots of stuff will come out, and it's a good look for the attorney general. I think we'll see how far it goes, because they can make the argument. There's a store over there. Go and buy it there. There's a giant. There's a this. There's a that. Your comments, though, are telling, and that is current antitrust law is based off of this kind of Bork Chicago notion that as long as the consumer wins, and they always bring up consumer choice. And Brandeisian antitrust, which I think we need to go back to, talks about market power. And if you want to talk about power, regardless of whether

or not you have a choice, if one company has such dominance and such access to so much cheap capital yeah that no consumer is really going to choose anything else thereby cauterizing new business formation putting good employers out of business then that is reason for antitrust so just a couple just a couple points here while everyone is talking about MGM because we're obsessed with James Bond they missed bigger news news this week about Amazon, which highlights just how powerful this company is and just why it needs to be broken up. Do you realize Amazon's ad business, which no one ever talks about, their ad business. Well, we do. We talked about it.

We're aware it's big. Well, other than us. Big and growing. Other than 008 and 009 here. You're a 00-nothing. No, I'm the Jewish nemesis. By the way, Ian Fleming, raging anti-Semite,

Goldfinger, Blofeld. Jesus, dude. Be a little bit more subtle. Yeah, he was. Anyways, I'm going to get shit on Twitter for that. Okay, so Amazon's ad business,

which no one ever talks about. Yeah. Take the ad business of Roku, Pinterest pinterest snap and oh i don't know add in twitter just for fun amazon's ad business is two and a half times bigger than all of those firms revenue combined and it's growing 70 percent it is becoming a real it's good that's the troika of advertisers there's a just sort of, I'm just, I'm overwhelmed. I'm overwhelmed.

You're verklempt. I'm overwhelmed. Well, well, double or nothing. It is going to be an interesting time. I think bringing this stuff out, more information, just like the testimony of Tim Cook at the Epic thing, it may have done him no favors to be so explicit about what was going on. And so I think as more of these attorneys,

attorney generals or attorneys general, I think it's attorneys general, start to get information, I think that'll be nothing but good. This transparency of how these things work will be interesting for people. And they don't want that stuff out at all. Interestingly, a bill in Congress is aimed at beefing up resources for space travel,

may also include a $10 billion bailout for Jeff Bezos' space exploration company, Blue Origin, pushed by Maria Cantwell, who's from Washington State. His company recently lost out on the bid that SpaceX got, Elon Musk's company. And so, you know, this looks like a gimme to one of the richest people. It's getting a lot of attention from Bernie Sanders and everything else, because poor Jeff Bezos needs the help for his space endeavors. But, you know, it's just Washington as usual. One party wants to advantage someone.

The other is trying to stop it. I think they're sort of being dragged right into Washington in ways that's important for their businesses at the same time. It's going to attract more and more scrutiny. Yeah, but I do think it's not business as usual. I think the trend is business as usual, but at some point when the most profitable, largest market cap companies in the world continued this regulatory arbitrage of wanting to overrun government and look for additional subsidies. I mean, is Amazon $20 billion in profits the last 10 years, average tax rate of 4.5%? I mean, it's just at some point, there's got to be pushback. Now, I don't know enough about the situation. I'm curious if you think this is exceptional or just what every other company does looking for.

I think space exploration using the cheap capital of Amazon shareholders is actually beneficial for American taxpayers. But what do you think about this specific situation? Well, I think it's interesting because they're also involved in the pushback, which they sort of got in the head with Microsoft and the Jedi contract, which looks like it's going to have to be redone, I guess, or if at all. And so they managed to put a wrench in that. And so it'll be really interesting as they engage, all these companies engage with the federal government on all kinds of contracts, right? And they're critically important, especially Amazon with Amazon Web Services, all kinds of facial, well, they've suspended

some of their facial recognition stuff. But as they move into, especially these big cost item things where they're working essentially a vendor for the federal government, I think they're gonna, I think it'll be, it's sort of like on one hand,

they have all this influence. On the other hand, this is perfect stuff for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to point at, you know sort of like on one hand, they have all this influence. On the other hand, this is perfect stuff for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to point at. You know, they're exposing themselves more, I think is what they're doing. And whether they can argue all you want, but once they get into the attorney's general thing

and into Congress, they get exposed more. And eventually there will be legislation, eventually. I think they're headed for legislation and it's just going to be a dance of how much they can avoid and how bad it has to be and stuff like that. So it's interesting. It's an interesting.

But speaking of it, let's move on to the big story because other countries are even more so, you know, all across the world dealing with these tech companies in ways that are possible in this country for lots of reasons. Russia is cracking down on big tech platforms in an effort to control free speech. This week, Russian regulator, and I'm going to pronounce this, Roskomnadzor, told Google...

Thank you, comrade. Okay, told... Nastrovye! Nastrovye. Devushka. Comrade. Okay. Nastrovya.

Nastrovya. Devushka. Told Google to block thousands of unspecified pieces of illegal content that would slow access to the company's services. The next day, the Russian court fined Google $81,000 for not taking another piece of content. They fined them $81,000? Well, look it. Over in Florida. I was going to say Russia and Florida.

Yeah, right. Exactly. Come on. Russia orders Facebook and Twitter to store all of its data on Russian users within the country by July or face penalties. These moves are part of a wave of recent action by the Russian government to get a handle on controlling speech, obviously. They're probably worried about Navalny

and all the activity there, et cetera, et cetera. Back in March, the government made it harder for people to see and send posts on Twitter if the company did not take down content the government considered illegal. And this isn't just happening in Russia. It's, you know, India. Many countries are trying to sort of get their handle around these tech companies.

The old move was shutting them down, essentially. That's not really quite working because people use them or find workarounds. But it's a really interesting trend that these, and in the case of Russia and India, they don't have a First Amendment. So, you know, they can do whatever they want in these ways. And of course, these have always been top-down countries. So, I don't know, what do you think? They're going to see a lot of this pushback across the world in Russia, not just from China, but Russia, India, other countries.

It's good for Google, because Google will get to wrap themselves in this sort of freedom blanket and obfuscate the fact that they, in fact, should be moderating some of the more dangerous, incendiary, divisive content, which they amplify. And instead, this will be a big distraction. And a bunch of Republicans will use this as a means of saying free speech, and it'll end up being a real advantage for Google. I think from Russia's perspective, I mean, they want to control the media. They want to control speech. And Google gets in the way of that. I think the ideal scenario for the Russians would be if they do what Apple did, and that is, quite frankly, just cave to the government and do what they want.

Because if they outright ban Google, I think a lot of the digerati or the, I don't know, the tech set or the affluent set in Russia. Yeah, it's a big set there. It's a big set. It's a big industry. Well, they would just use, I think they would just use VPNs and figure out another way to access Google. Yeah. So, I don't, this, where I come from, this is the following. Google really, the revenue they get from Russia just isn't that big a deal. This is an opportunity for them to talk about how they are a warrior for free speech and wallpaper over the notion that YouTube continues to radicalize young men by promoting

content that is dangerous and isn't getting its natural oxygen of discourse. It's being promoted by these algorithms. So, unfortunately, I think like everything else, I think this will probably end up being good for Google. Because next to Putin, everybody looks good, right? I think this will probably end up being good for Google. Because next to Putin, everybody looks good, right? That's right. They can make strident speeches about how they're refusing to, you know, that the Russian, they'll wrap themselves in a flag of First Amendment in America. And it'll all be giant distraction from the fact that there's some nuance here. And then a bunch of Republican governors will line up behind it.

Except the Republicans are the ones passing these laws like in Florida, these social media laws like in Florida where they're doing fines, very similar, not unsimilar fines of if you continue to do this, if you don't put people on there. I mean, they are sort of different, but they're trying to control the speech of these companies and who they can kick off and who they can't. You're referring to DeSantis signed a law saying that the platforms couldn't kick people out. And the reality is, I just call that his first trip to Iowa. He got angry that Liz Cheney was in the news too much. And so he said, how can we get attention? I know, let's sign meaningless legislation that's going to have no impact. I don't even think it's, I don't think it's legal what he signed to just try and so I can get more camera. He might as well just have gone to Des Moines

and said, started talking about big tech. That was just like such a ridiculous and effective political move. But anyways, I think this is, I think this issue in, I think the bigger issue, again, I think the media, I'm going to go out on a limb here,

gets us wrong. I think the state-sponsored hijacking that looks like it was KGB-inspired of a journalist where a commercial flight was in mid-air, escorted down under the falsehood that there was explosives on board. And then four guys who were clearly KGB agents escorted this journalist off the plane and he was detained. That's the kind of shit, that's literally a modern day Archduke Francis Ferdinand getting shot in the head.

That's the kind of shit that starts wars. It's a Bond movie, really. Well, and now Western companies are saying we're not going to fly over Belarusian airspace. I mean, that was, in my opinion, that was the real story of the week. Not Russia asking Google to do shit. I think we

kind of missed the bigger we missed the bigger picture we missed the bigger and that's just not the t speaking it's not because this is a country you're right it's not a big business for google russia is a big business i think russia has more to lose here in that regard but it's not just russia it's india look they're doing stuff in new zealand australia like this canada like and then then eventually really yeah they're all like talking about various and sundry things about it but you know in in the in the democracies it's like hate speech needs to be controlled in Russia it's don't talk Navalny like yeah that's right so it's speech needs to be controlled speech needs to be controlled it's really the bottom

although it's different speech and I think you and I would probably go yeah hate speech needs to be controlled no let Navalny take you know I would probably go, yeah, hate speech needs to be controlled. No, let Navalny speak. You know, I mean, that's the problem here. Well, that's the nuance that no one wants to talk about. Yeah, exactly. And so I think, you know, look, Putin's going to do whatever he wants in Russia. I think he's probably got a real problem with Navalny and about the attention that he gets in a creation of that kind of martyr in that country, well-known for martyrs. That's a, you know, That's a problem for him.

And the more he tries to press down on speech, you don't even have to have the internet. If you remember David Remnick's book many years ago about Russia, same thing. They were using newspapers and letters and books. And you have Alexander Solzhenitsyn. And this is something that's been an ongoing war in Russia to keep information out of the hands of people

and then having people get through anyway. Like it doesn't really, they get through in some fashion. And so I think it's going to be very difficult for Russia to control a Google. And Google doesn't really have to do anything because it's not that big a deal to them. And you're right, they'll get a benefit out of it.

But I think in some of these other countries, in India, in New Zealand, in Canada, and then eventually here, they have a much more significant problem of how they manage their platform. I think that's really what that's all about. We got to take a quick break here. I'm just for the first time looked at the video. Are you wearing a gold chain? Yes, I am. What the fuck is going on here no my daughter put them on are you doing some sort of crazy sex games where you pretend to be a rap star what is going on there these are those beads like new orleans beads oh it's marty gar it's not yeah they're marty gar beads and these are uh my my the golden child's favorite jewelry to put on people's necks

so i forgot i had them on right now. I'm okay with that. I didn't know what was going on there. You know, though, my son, Louis, wears a gold chain. Like, he thinks he's very Italian. He goes right, we have Italian heritage. Right for the gold chain. He wears it all the time. And what do you know?

He's not getting a lot of swipes on Tinder. That's a shocker. Oh, stop it. He's doing great. Send him my way. Send him my way. My little butcher. My little butcher in training.

I want to be his Cyrano de Bergerac. He's doing just fine. He's so cute. He was singing in the shower this morning. He didn't realize we heard him as we were sitting on the back deck. It was very cute. That's a little awkward. I know.

It was sweet. We're not going to tell him. Fucking adorable. Back to Navalny. And Navalny. Anyway, so it's a bigger issue. They're facing, you know, here it is. The tech is so important to everybody and everyone's reacting

in a different way. And so I think this is not as big a deal as elsewhere. That's what I would say, including here in this country. All right, Scott, time for a quick break. We're going to leave international affairs and go to the real stuff. You know, Putin's a Bond fan. Do you know what his favorite pasta is? What? I'll have the mini penny. Oh, my God. Get it? Money penny, mini penny. I get it. It's so bad. That's good Bond humor. That's not good Bond.

It's terrible Bond humor. We'll be right back to talk about Amazon buying MGM Studios. Then we'll answer a listener mail. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night.

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It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott, we're back. You can make all the Bond jokes you want. It's not just Bonds, it's Rocky. It's other things. It's not just the Bond jokes. Are you sincere saying that? Because I heard Putin also gets pussy galore. You said any Bond joke.

No. You said any Bond joke. Oh, my God. You gave me license. I didn't want to go there. I didn't want to go there. You and your two-pack Shakur impression. The names of the Onatop.

Remember Anna Onatop? Onatop? Onatop? Onatop? Do you remember that one? Onatop. It was- Jane Seymour, Bond girl.

She was, she was, oh, what was her name? Sandy Newton, most beautiful woman in the world. Bond girl. Anyway, Onatop was my favorite. That was my favorite, Onatop. She was the one who strangled people with her legs. You don't remember that one? Anyway, Amazon is buying MGM Studios.

I think that was my first wife. 8.5, 8.45. I'll be here all think that was my first wife. Anyways, go ahead. Sorry. 8.45 billion. I'll be here all week. Try the veal. All right. Try the veal. I'm going to shake you, not stir you. Okay, Amazon is buying MGM... We're done with the bond jokes. MGM Studios for $8.45 billion is Amazon's

second biggest acquisition since it bought Whole Foods in 2017 for a lot more, $13.4 billion. The once Hollywood Golden Studio has been shopped around for the past few months and valued at far less than its competitors than Apple. Apple, I think a lot of people are looking at it. But among the many titles, it's home to James Bond. It has Rocky. It's got a whole bunch of stuff. And although Amazon will only own 50% of the IP of that one, I think. So what do you think? Is it too much? They paid a lot. People think they

paid a lot. They paid a lot. Well, I just think this is evidence that when you have a 26-year-old retailer buying a 100-year-old storied media and content company so they can sell more paper towels, I just think it reflects that we're in a wonderful age. We live in a wonderful age. It's for the paper towels. This goes back to what you're saying. So a lot of content companies were looking at it who are in the content business, and no one could justify paying more. This company was purchased by a company I've done some work with, Anchorage Capital, for about $5.5 billion 10 years ago. It was their longest investment. Right.

And they overpaid then, and nobody could get near the number that Amazon can pay because if it just pulses a little bit of sugar for Prime Video, which is now technically 200 million members bigger than Netflix, it's worth it to them. And it brings up the notion of how Amazon has become too powerful because they can come in and make irrational purchases that don't make any sense. A little soft bank going on here. And everybody else that got out their pencil said, quite frankly, this thing's probably not worth $6 billion. I mean, it's got some assets. Right. But I was thinking, okay, they could do some really cool stuff. You could have a Bond film for Prime members seven days before it comes out in the theaters, right?

I would be thrilled, yeah. But I don't think they're going to be able to do that because it's a joint venture with the heirs to the Broccoli fortune or the Broccoli IP. And I'm not sure they would allow that. So here's what this reflects, and that is when Anchorage first bought this, I think this is what... So you've heard of the greater fool theory? Yeah. And that is you pay a stupid price, but someone else, even dumber, will come along and buy it for a higher price. I think this is an individual, I think this was an ego-driven purchase. I think when non-Hollywood people buy Hollywood assets,

they usually buy them for the wrong reasons. Specifically, they like the idea of going to the Academy Awards. Yeah. And, but, but there's even an individual who wants to go to the Academy Awards even more. This was the kind of one midlife crisis passing off the baton to another midlife crisis.

So there's a greater fool theory. This is the smaller penis theory, where essentially one midlife crisis passing off the baton to another midlife crisis. So there's a greater fool theory. This is the smaller penis theory, where essentially one midlife crisis guy sold to a guy in the midst of an even bigger midlife crisis. This makes no sense economically. With $9 billion, the woman who runs Amazon content could have produced a ton of amazing content. With this money.

Absolutely. This is a lot of money. But here's the thing. Amazon can make irrational purchases and put their elbows out and bump every player out of the way. You know who would have been a great owner for this asset? Who?

Disney would have been a great asset. Yeah, wouldn't have paid for it. Would have been a great owner. They could have had a Bond land. They could have done a lot of great things with the franchise. What they have done with the Star Wars franchise in terms of maintaining the integrity and then extending it into cartoons and adjacent programs. Yeah.

They've done an amazing – they would have been a great steward of this. Amazon? They also have Legally Blonde. They've got Rocky and Creed, et cetera, et cetera. Handmaid's Tale, Fargo, Vikings. There's a lot going on here. But you're right. It's kind of a crazy amount of money.

But it does – look at all the attention it's gotten already. It's got pictures of him in the MGM logo of Bezos. He looks like a Bond villain in a Bond outfit, the whole thing. And I don't think it cost them anything. It's nothing. Well, that's it. But that's the point. It's a dilution of a half a percent. Right. If Jeff likes it, if the person at Amazon Prime Video who wants to please Jeff says, yeah, we can do some great things with these assets, they take a half a percent dilution. This means absolutely nothing to them. But every other media company looking to bulk up to fight back against Netflix and Amazon just can't even get close to it. Can't even get close to it. Yep. And it's 100% for Prime. That's it. That's it. It's for Prime. That's the way it goes. And

that's all it is. It also is home to Thelma and Louise. There's it. That's it. It's for Prime. That's the way it goes. And that's all it is. It also is home to Thelma and Louise. There's all kinds of stuff here. Okay, but what do you do? What are we going to have? Thelma and Louise from the dead? I mean, how do you? I get it. I don't think that's what it's about.

You know, the fact that, you know, Louis B. Mayer used to say, I read lots of books about him and sort of the glory days of MGM. That's where Judy Garland, Wizard of Oz, Singing in the Rain, Gone with the Wind, et cetera, et cetera. And they're not owned by that. Warner actually owns those, which is interesting. But he used to say there's more star than the heavens, if you remember, sort of the creepy stylings of Louis B. Mayer,

which have become, look like he's a pretty malevolent player in that time period. But it does, it gives them nothing. And what's happening is like, there's a lot of growth with Disney Plus. There's a lot of growth with HBO Max and Paramount Plus. You know, you see these ads sort of showing off all their stars, essentially, again, just the way MGM used to, if you remember those pictures of all the stars of MGM.

If you go back and see, you know, they'd sit them all down every year and you'd see them. And it was really breathtaking, actually, when you'd see them. But what's important here is it just sells more topic. Like you said, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. And it will help Amazon. I think it was a bad move. You do?

Huh? You think they're like Sony? Actually, Sony did well with its purchase. Some companies, when they come in to buy Hollywood, end up crying at the end. Sony's actually done okay. Comcast has done okay. Which group are they in? Are they the ones that sort of run away with their tail between their legs like AT&T?

No. I mean, they're in this business. So, it makes sense from a strategic fit standpoint. I'm just looking at valuation. If you look at the successful acquisitions and Disney's made the best, they've effectively not only bought banks, so let's assume they have a good bank here that they can utilize. The question is, would it have been easier or less expensive to rent that bank as opposed to own it? Because they could still run Rocky. They could still run Thelma and Louise. The key is, the reason why Disney's made the best acquisitions in content is they've purchased these franchises that are incredibly extendable. Yep.

And that is Marvel, Pixar, Toy Story 3, and Star Wars. It's the gift that keeps on giving with Ashoka getting her own series and The Mandalorian. Who would have thought The Mandalorian was going to get its own series and content? And Warner has Game of Thrones and more stuff. Whereas if you look at this, the only asset, really the only franchise asset here, you could argue Rocky. We'll see how long that gets played out. The Handmaid's Tale. I mean, there's only so many evil things we can do to the Gilmore Girl. I mean, that shit's running out of steam. And so what you had here, the franchise asset,

the franchise asset was the Bond franchise. And unfortunately they got descendants. And the thing about descendants of really talented people is they're under the impression they inherited that talent and they're usually difficult to deal with. And I wonder what they're gonna be able to do because they're gonna want Bond to be in theaters. the gangster move here would be to say the new bond film yeah not even do what wonder woman did and go on the same day say it's seven days early yeah it's

seven days earlier than in the theaters i don't think the broccolis will agree to that no time to die had to be delayed it's the 25th bond film what a long it's like sort of like saturday night live it's a really long that's my point you know what the downside is? October 8th in theaters, just so you know. The downside is not that they overpaid, because quite frankly, it's literally the sweat off of Bezos' back. It's the thing that wasn't worth it here. Okay. Is that it's another point of light. It's Exhibit 34B and the antitrust trial against Amazon. And it wasn't worth it. It wasn't worth it. So look, I think Jennifer Sulky, who has $9 billion, could have created some amazing content, maybe even, in my view, more enduring content than what they're going to get with the

MGM library. She could have, without raising any antitrust flags, built some amazing franchises. I just don't think this was a shareholder-driven acquisition when they looked at it on a risk-adjusted basis. Well, do they ever think of shareholders? I don't think they do. Bezos? Oh, I think he does. I don't think he thinks of them. They have long-suffering, and as I noted last week in The Times, their investors don't mind this kind of stuff.

They don't think it's worthless. Well, it feels bold. It's bold, that's right. It doesn't, you know, if you're AT&T and you do this, you're like, what an idiot. If you're Bezos, it's like, brilliant, bought Mr. Bond kind of thing. And so, you know, Whole Foods is their biggest purchase.

Obviously, they bought Zappos in 2009 for 1.2 billion, Ring for 1.2 billion. I think it's just the beginning of tech companies. I actually kind of predicted that as buying up these things. They're going to buy everyone. I did an interview that just published today with Jake Tapper, and I'm like, they're going to own you someday, Jake Tapper, or your version of you someday. You had Jake Tapper? What?

You had Jake Tapper. What's he like? I like him. He's lovely. He has a book. I'll send it to you. It's wonderful. He's actually a very good fiction writer.

He writes thrillers. I'll send it to you. I'll send it to you. It's a wonderful, he's actually a very good fiction writer. He writes thrillers. I'll send it to you. I'll send it to you. There's some, you know, I am, everyone talks about income inequality. I want to talk about talent inequality. That's just not fair. Yeah. That's just not fair that a guy like that should be a fiction writer.

Yeah. Well, he's really quite good. He's not just, he's not just, he's quite good. He's like the nicest guy. Is he nice? Yes, he's very nice. You should listen to it. He said a lot.

He said a lot. He said a lot. So, what's interesting about that, though, is I was like, they're going to own you someday. It's not going to be. They're going to just sit and wait and bleed out, even Disney, even Comcast. You know what I mean? And just wait and wait and wait. If they can do this without even a problem, without, you know, they have, let's be clear,

they're worth, what is it? $1.64 trillion. And they have $71 billion of cash in cash. They have 70. This is nothing. This is a nothing burger for them. And they could go make a deal. I don't know, Cara.

David Zasloff's coming for them. Yeah, right. Exactly. Come on. They could just bleed these people out. By the way, I don't know that guy at all. I have no reason to think he's not a talented executive. Yeah, he's a very talented executive.

I'm not saying he's not. I just don't think he knows digital as well as he needs to. I don't think he can learn it. You and I are in violent agreement. This company, it's shitty businesses, not as shitty. It's smaller businesses that no one talks about, are two and a half times the size of other competitors and growing 70. Their ad business is growing 70% a year.

Facebook isn't growing 70% a year. Google isn't growing 70% a year. Facebook isn't growing 70 percent a year. Google isn't growing 70 percent a year. I mean, it is staggering what this company is able to accomplish. I don't think there's ever been a company that is performing on as many thousands of cylinders at this moment, in these areas, as Amazon. I mean, it's just, you look at all these different businesses and there's quarter of a trillion or half a trillion dollar businesses stuck within the business. The ad business is probably, if the ad business was spun,

they would say, oh, there's a third. It's no longer a duopoly, Google and Facebook. There's a third and it's Amazon. And the third is growing faster than numbers one and two. Yeah, yeah.

And what kind of market cap would that get? What kind of market cap would AWS get? Oh my, oh, and two. Yeah, yeah. And what kind of market cap would that get? What kind of market cap would AWS get? Oh my, oh, excuse me, yeah, AWS. AWS, yeah, yeah. It just, anyways, staggering. But look, I think it's a good, I'm sorry, I think it's fine with them. They own, also, just so you know,

movies, not just Bond, we made a lot of Bond jokes, but they own Rocky, Robocop, The Pink Panther, Silence of the Lambs, Legally Blonde, Moonstruck, Basic Intrigue, The Thomas Crown Affair, Tomb Raider, and also, you know, lots of other things. And one of the Lambs, Legally Blonde, Moonstruck, Basic Interest, Thomas Crown Affair, Tomb Raider, and also lots of other things. And one of the things, this is a quote from Rich Greenfield, who you and I have talked about, which is he runs a media research firm, very well known.

MGM didn't have the resources to build and create off the catalog. Amazon does, and the opportunity to exploit MGM catalog is incredible. They also have some movies coming up, like Respect, Aretha Franklin biopic starring Jennifer Hudson, Ridley Scott's House of Gucci starring Lady Gaga and Adam Driver, Paul Thomas Anderson's latest project, which stars Bradley Cooper, first film since A Star is Born.

It's not like they're buying this sad little studio sitting out in the desert kind of thing. I think the issue is that they can do this, and even if it's a disaster, it's not a disaster for them. Like, everything you just mentioned is amazing, and it's worth maybe $1 or $2 billion.

Yeah. And it's not worth raising any trust funds. Rich people don't care. Like, okay, what is that? Is that croissant $5 more? That's fine. Whatever. I want to eat it right now.

But it has also been spending a lot of money. It's been $125 million for Coming to America, $80 million for Barat's subsequent movie film, and $200 million for Tomorrow War, a Chris Pratt adventure that's arriving in July. I think they're just going to just, it doesn't matter. They want to win here, and it's good for their other businesses. I don't know.

I think it's perfectly fine. Well, you know what's big, old, and rocky? What? Sylvester Stallone. What does you know what's big, old, and rocky? What? Sylvester Stallone. What does Sylvester Stallone have to say about this? I think their issue is antitrust red flags. I already can book his sentence. That's right.

I don't think it's worth it. I don't think it was. Anyways. Yeah. There's other studios available, possibly. Someone thinks Sony is. There's a whole bunch. These are all going to be sold.

All going to be sold. Yeah, they're all. It's really interesting, isn't it? All these storied studios. All going to be sold. They're all becoming like a rounding area. Or they're just going to wait and bleed them out and then buy them. That's what's going to happen here. I think that's right. All right, Scott, let's move on to listener mail. Roll tape. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've

got mail. Hi, Kara and Scott. It's Matt from California. Is 5G all hype? It's barely any faster. And the people who promote it say things like, it'll be even more transformative than 4G, which is not how I would describe the switch to 4G. Oh, that's a good point. I'm not like blown away by 4G either. You know, I think, you know, look, this is what AT&T, the reason they're saying

they're getting out of their Warner business is they want to put everything into 5G. I think it is a big business. I think they feel that the internet gap is going to get closed in the United States because of it, and that we're going to see all kinds of things because of it. And I get your point about 4G, but I think this is a big difference. Scott? Yeah, look, my sense is I don't know the technology, but I think it's an incredible brand. I think 5G right now is one of the strongest brands in the world, and that everybody hears it and immediately associates very positive things with it. And the majority of that brand equity

is going to be in the U.S., is going to be captured by two firms, AT&T and Verizon. And their boards recognize that. They have still figured out a way to put out their elbows. I don't know if it's regulatory protection or I don't know if it's stealing the ground, CapEx, but so far, it doesn't appear to be that there's these immediate existential threats to the telco and broadband and cable businesses or the data businesses. And 5G, I think it sounds exciting. I think anything, I mean, bandwidth is the new oxygen, right? And there's studies showing that a nation's bandwidth is directly proportional to its economic growth. So, when I think about productivity, when I think about my life and not only that, the productivity that's resulted in more income and more time with family, it's a function of

bandwidth. Yeah, there'll be electricity. You don't think about, in this country at least, in other countries you certainly do. But spotty service, we still deal with it. And you're not going to. It's just not going to happen. And more connected devices, especially self-driving cars and other things, and including household devices. There's going to be so many devices jacked into the matrix that it's critically important. going to be so many devices jacked into the matrix that it's critically important. And I think there'll be some day where you won't even think about your connection at all. And also Huawei

being the dominant force here, others have to be competitive. Yeah, but there's something really magical about technology. Technology is built in this gestalt where, all right, instead of when our products get better, we increase prices to maximize margin. As products get better, we lower the price. And they have convinced us all. They don't call it Cadillac 1, Cadillac 2, Cadillac 3 because they assume, all right, the car gets better, but not at the same pace as the iPhone 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 and 2G, 3G, 4G. So tech has done an amazing job of not only improving products, but creating brands in a feel that the obsolescence phenomena here is so strong, you constantly have to be reinvesting and upgrading. And it creates just more and more, it taps into our competitive instincts. I mean, I'm excited. I will ask for 5G. Maybe it's out. It's important to me. I don't understand it. I don't need to understand it, but I will pay additional margin for it. I think 5G right now is one of the strongest business brands in the world. And in the U.S., like I said, two companies will reap the maturity of that equity. Yep, exactly. And one of the things, let me read from a wired story so you

can understand the technology. The promise is that 5G will bring speeds of around 10 gigabits per second to your phone. That's 600 times faster than the typical 4G speeds off today's mobile phones and 10 times faster than Google's fiber standard home broad. The way you think about connectivity now will change as these things. A lot of these are riding on 4G networks that you're getting. You're seeing 5G, sometimes 5G pops up on my phone. But getting these to different parts of this country and to move it is critically important for all the leading

future things like, again, connected artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, all these connected devices. We are operating on like 10 K-ons and a string, comparatively. And so, you know, it's just, we have fallen behind in connectivity in general for years and years and years and years and years. And so we have to adopt this. South Korea has the highest rate of adoption, but it's still not that big. And U.S. users just do not have fast connectivity at all. And it's always been lagging.

And if we don't have this, it's critical to everything that's coming. Autonomous cars, everything, everything that's part of the future. And you aren't going to get there without this. So yes, once it is, John Stanky, for all his wrongness about media, get there without this. So yes, it's, it, it, once it is, John Stanky for all his wrongness about media is right about this. They've got to put every bit of shoulder into this.

Yeah. And what people don't realize is, I mean, 5G, even if it's on your phone, if you don't have, if you don't have mid band or if there's not the right infrastructure, you don't get to take advantage of it. So there's, there's all sorts of... So my understanding is mid-band is the sort of critical factor that's been missing from a lot of the networks, and there's a lot of CapEx to take advantage. The stat you highlighted, that's if you're in the right area with the right infrastructure. So anyways, but look, I think Verizon and AT&T are going to do really well, which is to focus on – and I told you my story. I was asked to come speak to a bunch of Verizon people, and I said, well, okay, all I'm going to tell them is double down on 5G and lose the media assets. And they called me back and told me they had a change in scheduling and no longer wanted me to speak there.

It looks like they just took your advice. They didn't need to pay you to be there to tell them something they did themselves. Well, they'd already decided, and they're like, we don't need this guy to stand up and tell 40% of the people in the room they're about to get sold or fired. But anyways, I'm excited about 5G. I don't know exactly what it means. But that's the wonderful thing about technology is we trust people. Faster. And you mentioned electricity.

It's interesting. Electricity, you don't think, oh, I've got to upgrade my electricity. Do you? You don't think, oh, I've got to upgrade my electricity. Do you? You don't think, oh, faster electricity. Except when there's like wildfires in California or, you know, hurricanes or things like that. They're going to be shuttling down electricity in California. It's going to be problematic for Devin Newsom. I'm getting a generator, mostly because I like to embarrass the rival dads and talk about my generator.

You have like a closet of apocalypse. Is that another thing you're doing? I live in Florida. There are hurricanes. I'm getting a big-ass generator. All right. Okay. You get a generator. You have like a closet of apocalypse. Is that another thing you're doing? I live in Florida. There are hurricanes. I'm getting a big ass generator. All right. Okay. You get a generator.

From Kohler. I didn't even know they made generators. Speaking of, you know what I did the other day? Do you have an apocalypse plan? You want to talk about a strong move? The other day I explained crypto to a rival dad in front of his family. That's a strong move. That's a strong move.

What is this crypto, Scott? And then I pulled out my leaf blower. Boom! One of the things that's important to keep in mind here, most of the 5G patents are not owned by U.S. companies. Qualcomm's the biggest player, but the others are Huawei, obviously, Samsung,

LG, Nokia, Ericsson, and Qualcomm. But U.S. does not have dominance here, and that's been a political issue, too. And then there's all these controversies around Qualcomm, but the U.S. does not have dominance here. And that's been a political issue too. And then there's all these controversies around the health. There's all these conspiracy theories around it, which also come along. Bill Gates is related to one of them, or whether he's trying to put different things in your brain and stuff like that. So it's a really interesting time, I have to say, and it's critically important. The hype is worth it. Anyway, let's get to one more quick break and we'll be back for predictions.

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how do they find their next great idea? Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Okay, Scott, what is your prediction? We've been very good. We've talked about MGM being bought by Amazon. We've talked about, what was the other one we got right?

You were noting something. So we, back when Peloton, the recall of the treadmills, the stock dove to, I think, 63. And we predicted that it would be back to 100 within 30 days. And we were wrong. It was back to 100 within 17 days. See? So we got that one right. We talked to the SEC.

We're actually on a roll here. Yeah. So let's throw up on ourselves this time. What have we gotten wrong? Anything? No, we get a one right. We talked to the SEC. We're actually on a roll here. Yeah. So let's throw up on ourselves. What have we gotten wrong? Anything? No, we get a lot wrong. Yeah. We just forget it and move on.

Yeah. Well, no. Twitter will have a new CEO. Tesla's stock will be cut in half. Kara, you heard it here. You know, the day that happens, you'll totally say, I got it right. You know that. Just wait long enough.

Just wait long enough. Winter is coming. Okay. Okay. So the thing that I don't think anyone's talking about, and I love corporate governance, but I'm fascinated by shareholder classes. And one of the things that Stankey wanted, because he wanted to monetize his Time Warner assets to the greatest extent possible, is he wanted a company, the NUCO, to spend to have one class of stock. Because generally speaking, two-class shareholder companies gives too much power to people who may not share the same interests as shareholders, and they oftentimes, at least theoretically, trade as a discount to single-stock companies because single-stock companies can be taken over. So that acquisition premium is sort of already built in. Sure.

can be taken over so that acquisition premium is sort of already built in. So Stanky demanded that the new co have a single class of shares. And this is what is going to, I believe, play out. And that is the requisite investments that new co, discovery, whatever they're calling it, discovery plus, discovery communications, is going to have to make to show that they're a player and meet the expectations around subscriber growth, around streaming, is going to require such an extraordinary investment that NewCo is going to have, is going to miss on earnings. And that is they're running around promising everything. They're promising that we'll be able to hold onto our ad revenue and pulse a subscriber

service. They're promising everybody everything. Oh, you like the consistent profits of a declining sector that's a company that's, excuse me, a business model that's in secular decline, specifically the advertising cable industrial complex. Fine, we'll hold on to that. But you also want the great taste, the growth of a streaming service. Guess what, boss? You can't have both. That requires an extraordinary investment. They will have to go through this valley of death. They will throw up in their second or third earnings call. The stock will go down, and this company is going to be put in play by Comcast or someone else who will come in and become the largest shareholder. Oh, more complex.

Why don't they just come in now? Because they can't. Do you want to get it out in the open? Do you want to get the gazelle in the open? My understanding is the deal is pretty airtight. But once it's a publicly traded stock, and, and Cara, it's a single class. It'll be the, think about this.

NewCo, or Discovery, is about to become the only media company in the world over a $10 billion market capitalization that is in play, that someone could come in and buy. No other company, no one can buy Amazon, no one can buy Disney. I mean, this is, it becomes the only media asset. A tasty treat, and David Zasloff gets rich, yes.

That someone could come in and buy. So you're gonna see, in my opinion, they've over-promised. They're gonna have to take EBITDA projections down. The existing shareholder base that is sort of neither here nor there, I don't know if this is a shareholder base that wants slow but steady growth or wants the fast growth but losses of streaming. The shareholder base will shake out. You'll see the stock punt or throw up, and then you're going to all of a sudden see a D or an F filing by a Comcast or someone else.

Another media company is about to become the biggest. Or an internet company. Amazon took the step. Fair point. Amazon took the step, and they're taking it. They must have made the calculation that they could beat this. This story has not been written. It has not.

We keep saying that. This is ridiculous. This is a ridiculous price for this thing. You and I should make a bid. What do you say? I'm in. We would be good media. We would be so canceled. I got some Do be good media. We would be so canceled.

I got some Doja Coins. We would be so canceled. I got some Doja Coins. We could run around and offend the broccolis. I got a Discover card with no limit. My name is Scott.

No cash limit. You would do that, wouldn't you? 2% cash back. Yeah. If I was a Hollywood mogul, I want to be the crazy one. Just say crazy things all the time. Did I tell you my Hollywood story

if I was a mogul? No, but I... Please. Would you like to hear hear it so a friend of mine was the uh was the showrunner and creator of the l word and so i went up to vancouver where they were taping it um and is that like a dream come true for you a trip to vancouver to see the filming of the l word yes they're very nice i love the cast jennifer beals i like them all. They're such lovely people. What a feeling. I love her. That Jennifer Beals? Yes, that Jennifer. She's lovely.

I'll introduce you to her someday. She's really a lovely person. I couldn't handle it. I just couldn't handle it. She's a good egg. She's a good egg. I met Jane Lynch there. I met all kinds of people.

I love Jane Lynch. She's the best. Oh, my God, Jane Lynch. She's the best. We're not going to be friends. She just doesn't know. I will maybe introduce her. I love Jane Lynch.

I love Jane Lynch. She's in Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, by the way. She's amazing. So anyway, so she, so I had a great time there, but when I was on the set, one of the things was I needed internet access. At the time, internet access wasn't.

Were you a special consultant? No, a lesbian wears a gold chain. And yells out famous lines from Dorothy episodes before I do my wife. No, my friend Eileen Chaikin is great. She's had all kinds of hits. She was Empire. She has another one.

Oh, The Equalizer? One of them. I forget. One of them. She's got another one. I don't know if it's The Equalizer. How many seasons did The L Word go for? A lot.

It's still there. It's still going on. Now it's the new L Word with new lesbians. And the old ones are still there, too. You've got to follow. You gotta you gotta invest in our relationship literally there's just so many jokes i just can't say right now literally literally let me finish my hollywood story and they of course there's assistants running everywhere because it's like ridiculous these these these hierarchies and these on these ho Hollywood sets. And the assistant came and said, what do you want for lunch?

And, you know, I'm like, whatever you have is fine. Like, I'm not that kind of person. And I just wanted to see how far they'd go, because I'd heard, you know, you could get any, you could ask for, you know, you ask for anything. And I said, I'd like a shark sandwich. And she was like, what? And I said, a shark sandwich.

And she, instead of saying, what the fuck are you talking about, lady? a minute okay on what bread i go obviously ciabatta like i was like what are you talking and with aioli come on get on board a shark sandwich and she literally started to go to try to find one and i stopped i was like please if someone asked you for a shark sandwich never get it a turkey sandwich is okay i'm gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm going to ask the next time you have a behind-the-scenes story about filming at the L Word that it's a little bit more exciting than the sandwich you ordered. I mean, don't build up my hope and my expectations like that.

Jennifer Beals, L Word, behind-the-scenes story, that was all working. She's so nice. She's the nicest person. She seems very nice. I'll give you Jennifer Beals. I took her around at CES one year and we kept pretending she was an eBay executive.

She's stunningly beautiful and lovely and smart and everything. But we kept putting her off as an eBay executive the whole weekend. That was some fun. That was a fun time. Okay, that's it. That's my old story.

No, Grandma, tell us more stories about you at the L Word set. Jesus Christ. Snoozerama. Anyway, you should watch the L Word.

Together we'll watch. I'll come to Florida. It'll be really fun. That's what we should have watched instead of the Boston Art Heist. You know, that's just so fucking weird. You and me watching

the L Word together. Seriously. No, you know what you can do? You're going to come down here and we're going to watch I Dream of Jeannie. Okay. Jeannie, go to your bottle. Oh my God.

Yes, master. Yes, master. I wonder if MJ owns that. I watched two hours of I Dream of Jeannie. Who owns I Dream of Jeannie? I don't know. By the way, I sat next to Barbara Eden on my interview at Morgan's.

She's lovely. She's a lovely woman. Smart, nice. I wonder who owns the IP for iDream. Now that could be something Jeff Bezos could get into. Who owns the IP for iDream? That's our entree into the media world. Who owns it?

NBC, it looks like. The jungle cat dog SPAC has announced the acquisition of the IP to iDream of Jeannie and the A-Team. And we couldn't get the L word, but we're starting something called the M word. Yeah. All right. We gotta close this out. This is digressing fast. Scott, I'm gonna have you read the entire thing out.

So I have here, we'll be taking the long weekend. So next week's show will be published on Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday. Hmm, that doesn't make any sense anyways. I'm going to a wedding in Knoxville. A wedding in Knoxville? That sounds kind of fun. Yeah. It's my nephew's wedding.

It should be fun. And I'm glad it's in person. Yeah. We're very excited. What's your nephew's name? Shout him out. Give him a shout out. Will Swisher.

And he's wearing, he's marrying Lee. And they're wonderful. And I'm very excited about that. Will and Lee Swisher. Congratulations. Yeah. He's going to Harvard Law School next year. Well, I'm sorry.

He's getting married and going to Harvard? Yeah. So things aren't working out for this kid. Hey, Will, I hope things turn up for you. Don't worry, boss. Hang in there. We're getting the car and driving my mom and the whole gang to Knoxville. It's going to be great. So I'm going to go out on a limb here, but any kid going to Harvard who's getting married in Knoxville, that'll literally be one of the last things he ever does in Knoxville. Goodbye, Knoxville. This might as well be a goodbye Knoxville party. It's where his lovely bride is from. Anyway, in any case,

we'll be gone. But please send us your listener mail questions. We love them. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to get a chance to be on the podcast. Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced

by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Endertot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you like the show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media.

We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Nana, tell us more stories about you on the set. I'm going to Dollywood. I'm going to Dollywood. It's near Knoxville. I'll tell you those stories when I get back. Take pictures. Take pictures, Kara.

Enjoy the wedding. Congratulations, Will and what's his bride's name? Lee. Congratulations, Will and Lee. Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. It's not always easy to harness the power and potential of AI. It's not always easy to harness the power and potential of AI. For all the talk around its revolutionary potential, a lot of AI systems feel like they're designed for specific tasks performed by a select few.

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