Pivot - Spotify’s podcast boom, Amazon checks out JCPenny, Kara loves TikTok and a prediction on Shopify

Episode Date: May 22, 2020

Kara and Scott talk about Spotify's new deal with Joe Rogan and the implications for the podcast industry. They also discuss Amazon reportedly in talks with bankrupt JCPenny about a potential sale. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has been buying up stocks from major companies over the course of the pandemic. In Listener Mail, Kara and Scott talk about TikTok's future as a Disney executive comes on as CEO. Scott predicts that Shopify is going to make a big retail acquisition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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of the Bose Corporation. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. Free Aunt Becky. What are you Swisher. Free Aunt Becky! What are you talking about? Free Aunt Becky! She was sentenced to prison today, her and her husband.

Oh, well, I feel so badly for her. Two months and five months in a big house for Aunt Becky. Well, you know what? She pushed the, you know, the other, Felicity Huffman was just like, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. What can I do to make it up? And she got off, right? And now Aunt Becky went further than most people, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. What can I do to make it up? And she got off, right? And now Aunt Becky went further than most people, I think. But nonetheless, she was very defiant in

the face of the fact that she really did something bad. I'm not sure. That's a long prison sentence for Aunt Becky. So too, I love Twitter because it just inevitably comes back to haunt you. And these are tweets from Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, respectively. Felicity Huffman put out a tweet before the controversy. Anybody know any good back-to-school hacks? That's right. I remember that. That's her tweet. And then Lori Loughlin's tweet was, some things are more important than money, such as doing the right thing. True words. Yeah, I never tweet things like that. That was her tweet.

I never tweet. I words. Yeah, I never tweet things like that. That was her tweet. I never tweet. I'll tell you, though, they are going to class up whatever big house they end up in. She's not going. They'll do something. She has impeccable fashion. The coronavirus.

They'll make a coronavirus exception. Like Michael Cohen is home. There's a lot of people home. I agree. Yeah, they'll be up. Her husband is dreamy. Is he? Yeah, they're dreamy.

They're jeans. He's a jeans mogul or something. They're both. They're going to class like a jeans mogul or something they're both fair they're gonna class god that's gonna be the best speaking of classing up the joint here's here's the irony uh pivot won two webby recognitions for best business podcast year the people's choice and the actual judging which means that's right the fancy people like us and the people like us the real people like us and at the same time as we're getting this award, Joe Rogan signs a multi-year licensing deal with Spotify and gets allegedly $100 million.

Oh, my God, we got $100 million. Oh, wait, no, that's the guy that sold to Spotify. We just got a fucking plastic thing. He did not get a Webby, but he got the $100 million. What the hell, Scott? What is going on? Yeah, you and your awards. That's not putting food on my table.

Let me just say I got three. By the way, three is what I got. But anyway, best technology and best ad. The ad I did with Gavin Belson, the Gavin Belson character. My ads are so much better than yours. This was a particularly good ad. It was funny. We were pretending I was doing an interview with him, and it was a very wonderful copy.

It was very creative. I'm getting awards for best ads right now. Listen to me. Why didn't we get the hundred? an interview with him and it was very wonderful copy it was really it was very creative awards for best ads listen to me listen to me why didn't we get the hundred let's focus on the fact we love the webbies thank you so much we've never been more thrilled in our lives but i'd like to just real quickly i'm very serious kira i would like to thank our dozens and dozens of fans i'd like to we have lots of fans don't say that we have great yeah i know i know i know let's talk about rogan everyone's rogan so no seriously, talk about this. What's the deal?

What is our future? What is the future of podcasting, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera? This is a big deal, and it reflects a couple interesting trends, some old, some new. The old trend that it reflects is that advertising sucks, and anyone with any money is stringing out a way to opt out of advertising. But there's advertising on this thing. He's not going – there's going to continue to be advertising on it. You know that, right? Yeah, I know.

I know. So it doesn't suck that badly. Okay, go ahead. Keep going. Keep going. Okay. Okay, so if you're lucky in podcasting, you get ads at a CPM of $20 or $30, meaning that for every 1,000 people to show up, an advertiser will pay $20 or a download. So that's 20 or 30 dollars meaning that for every thousand people to show up and advertise will pay 20 bucks or the download so that's two or three cents so effectively and this is what media has been doing forever media thinks that you're just a fucking loser in the sense that you're willing

to endure this shit for two or three cents and what technology has done is it's liberated consumers who've said you know what I'll pay 12 cents to avoid advertising on a podcast. I'll pay 40 cents to avoid all the advertising on Modern Family, which is their ability to monetize it. And so you have this emerging industry or not even emerging, emergent industry that has said, we'll figure out a way to use technology to get a credit card to an app store or Apple TV or Amazon Prime or Hulu, whatever it is, or video on demand that says, all right, would you rather, there's so much margin in this because we're only getting 11, 20, 49 cents of money to pelt bullshit at you telling you you have restless leg syndrome, that if we can figure out a way to charge you a buck or two bucks, there's margin for the

technology players, the carriers, all kinds of stuff. And this is essentially kind of the most popular content, the most popular ad-driven content. It was making around $30 million a year, supposedly. It has found somebody who said, okay, we're going to liberate your users from this ad-supported ecosystem. The other thing that's… Well, it's not, though. It's going to continue to be free. He's coming off of YouTube.

It is not going to be behind a wall. It's a licensing deal. He's not an employee of Spotify, which is not going to produce it. So it's a little different. Spotify's ad-free, isn't it? Spotify's ad-free. No, not for the free – not for the – Oh, not for his one?

Not for the non-premium. Not for the free one? Yeah, exactly. And so there's ads here. not for the um oh not for his one not for not for the non-premium the free one yeah exactly and so there's ads here and what it is i think it's it's i thought for a second it's it's their howard stern moment you know with um yeah um when howard stern moved over um and i think serious yeah and so i think that it's not quite that because he's still going to be available it's just that it will bring in maybe more advertisers to spotify which is not its focus, and at the same time, push people to premium. Because I think the catalog will be there. I think that's where

they'll put behind the walls. But the premium model, I think they'll end up with a winning out supported model or a model for seven or 10 minutes. And then for the full time, I would be shocked if within three years, Joe Rogan isn't sort of behind a wall and the only way you access joe rogan is to be a subscriber to spotify that's where the money is they just every dollar they get in advertising is worth x every dollar they get in subscription is worth three to six x yeah yeah well they're pushing to move shit behind a wall what's hardest for rogan here is coming off of youtube which i'd love to know the behind the scenes of that, like that YouTube didn't really push to hold him in some way,

you know, that this was, he had to have been in extensive talks with them, presumably, because he's been a sort of a mainstay on there. Now they've got lots and lots and lots of creators on YouTube. And, and,

and Spotify is cherry picking this one off. Do you, what does it say about podcasting? Does it, or nothing, does it say? What does it say? Well, that's the big trend. The bigger thing here is that the most valuable companies in the world that have to, that are worth between, you know, 800 billion or 1.3 trillion, ranging from Facebook, which

by the way, just hit an all-time high, to Apple, Amazon, and Google. These guys, effectively, they have said, okay, the key is selling more search words, more handsets, and more paper towels, as you pointed out. And the way we can do that is through emotion and loyalty to our platform, our operating system, our devices. emotion and loyalty to our platform, our operating system, our devices. And the highest, the most emotional content that has the highest NPS scores is actually is media's content. So Netflix has incredibly high NPS scores versus your cable companies. So they went into the business of strengthening or cementing that emotional connection by creating video content and buying in music.

And all of these things are very powerful. creating video content and buying in music and all of these things are very powerful. And with the thing about podcasting is that when you're in people's ears, you do create a pretty strong relationship. And every podcast yesterday went up in value 20 or 30 or even 50% because just as nine women can't have a baby in a month, there are certain podcasts, including ours truly, that have built a following that no matter how much money they have, they can't build it overnight. So yesterday, you saw every big tech company and Spotify pull out their pencil and said, what podcast do we want to be in?

Because they're going to start snapping them all up. Even Spotify, who saw their stock up. Yeah, that was fascinating. Their biggest stock. They spent $100 million supposedly for this, but their stock was at $1.4 billion on the move. So they're like, okay, let's go do this 100 times. So you're going to see podcasting. Well, it's not going to work 100 times.

He's a special character. I mean, there's a couple podcasts that are really big like his and controversial. Not just that. He attracts a lot of attention. He's got his weird conspiracy. He even talked about it in the new york times article he's got this conspiracy edge he's he's got controversy around sometimes he says things there was one thing he said about a movie theater it was terrible um you know uh you know in an app in an every every podcast in the top 100 just became an acquirer enterprise asset yesterday and before that everyone was sort of

cocking their head and saying well it, it's a great world for podcasts. We'll see. These things all of a sudden. So who are the players? Very quickly, and then we'll get on to other things. What's that? Who are the buyers? Who should we expect phone calls from, Scott,

and lovely bottles of champagne? Well, obviously Spotify, but first and foremost, Apple, Amazon, and also Google, as they try and get people more attached to their Amazon show, to Alexa, to Apple Music, to Amazon Music. You're also going to see cross... What's interesting about the Rogan deal is that you could see Spotify trying to figure out a video offering that pushes him up. You could see... I mean, the most likely... That's the interesting part, the video offering.

I agree. And you could see Amazon starting to acquire podcasts and then you would be able, when the podcast came up, just as there's been small little innovations. When I play my Amazon show, when I play Shawn Mendes, it plays the lyrics automatically. Right. You could see when you play a podcast, it starts showing the video of it and maybe even some charts to help illuminate what the podcast is about. But podcasting is another one of those things where a small niche audience and Netflix invented the power of the long tail, a show the power of the long tail, that these companies might go after. So I think any podcast in the top 100 is probably potentially an acquisition target now. And unfortunately,

what it's going to do is the best podcasts are probably going to get bought for an irrational price. And it's going to leave all the other guys who've built great podcast businesses, all the carriers, all the Wondries, those guys, unfortunately, Vox. They're going to have to increase, even pay even more to retain top award-winning talent.

It's award-winning. And because the guys with the big pockets who can monetize it elsewhere are showing up in future treasure pots. What number are we on the list? What number are we? Well, I saw in, we're big in the UAE. In the UAE and Argentina, those are our biggest markets. We're like in the top 30.

Everywhere else, we're like in the top 200 in terms of podcasts. Interesting. Interesting. I like that you keep charts. You look at our charts. I don't look at our charts. I like that you keep charts. You look at our charts. I don't look at our charts. I just like to do that. I'm obsessed with affirmations.

I know you are. I don't like people, but I'm desperate for their affirmations. All right. Well, this is interesting. So we have to talk, Scott, obviously. That's really got to go on. We do talk twice a week. We do.

I mean, secretly. Everyone has to listen. Secretly. That's what's different about our talk. In a secret location in the dead of night. That's what I'm talking about. Wow. To meet somewhere.

With masks, of course. Anyway, it's a really interesting time. We will see where this all goes. What do you think of this? I mean, Cara, you are, if there is a queen of podcasting, you're it. What do you think of this? I think it's interesting. I think I was very early to understanding this.

I think I sort of kicked myself that I didn't take more advantage of it because I had the initial insight that was correct. How long have you been doing podcasting? Five years. 525. Rico decodes. I think it's I think it's I think it's I think when people talk about podcasting is over this, I think they're idiots. And I'm like, fine, it's over. Get out.

Like kind of thing. I think it is a I noticing the fan, the fan base is fascinating. I literally walked down the street and people like, this week, four joggers, Kara, where's Scott? Like, it's really interesting. And it's not that like, love me, love me. It's that they love it. They love the product.

I think you're their friend. There's something very intimate. Yes, they love the product. And I think we have a good product. So I'm very bullish on us, Scott. You and I came together in a dysfunctional relationship till the end of time. The emotional connection you make when you're in someone's ears and you're just talking over an extended period of time

and not using tricks to try and say, and next up, the person who killed JFK or whatever it is, or you're not trying to create rage for a click, that intimate, calmer relationship, basically big tech has discovered that is another way to cement the relationship such that they'll order more handsets and paper towels. I just think it's more simple than that. I think it's good content and not everybody can do it.

That's the other thing. Everyone thinks like a lot of people got into the interview business and have fallen off. You know what? We do have an unusual rapport and it's special. And so not everyone can do what we're doing. Go on. I'm just saying. Unusual and special.

Believe me, no one is more surprised. Unusual and special. Most women describe my relationship as one of those things. No one is surprised more than me that you are the follow-on to Walt Mossberg. I just cannot believe it. But here we are. Walt? Here we are.

You know, Walt was my last partner. Like, I had a partnership. We had a really successful, really good rapport. And I think it's the rapport. Yeah, I can't live up to that. That guy has a lot of wisdom and integrity. No, but you're different. It's different.

You're like my third marriage, essentially. Anyway, you know, the interesting one at the end. So let's move on. Does Amanda know that? There's no reason we can't all coexist. She is fine with you and George Conway. That's how she feels. She's like, how are your boyfriends doing?

I'm like, well, very well. Anyway. Me and George Conway. I'm not sure how I feel about that. Well, I love him on Twitter. He's my Twitter boyfriend. I just love him. God, you know him and Kelly.

What's her name? Oh, I don't know Kelly Annne i've never met her and you know they have just a fucking hot no you know what oh my god no i don't can you imagine how they go at it no i'm an asshole you're hurting my career throw down you bitch oh my god okay that and on that note is exactly why we're gonna make a like if he made $100 million, we will make a smaller amount. They could power a small city with the sex they must be having. Okay, now we're going to go to big stories. Amazon is reportedly in talks to buy bankrupt JCPenney now, speaking of exciting relationships. That is not a sexy relationship, I think. JCPenney declared bankruptcy on Friday, announced it would close nearly 250 stores.

I think. JCPenney declared bankruptcy on Friday, announced it would close nearly 250 stores. Now it's reported that Amazon is in talks with JCPenney to make a deal in which Amazon could proliferate its branded clothing and possibly some of its brick and mortar stores into a warehouse space. That would be Amazon's most notable brick and mortar buy since it took on Whole Foods for $13.7 billion a few years ago, and that turned out pretty well. So it also said it was teaming up with Vogue to create a new designer fashion storefront and market the company's buying for years. Why? Do they have to buy everything?

Or what do you think about this particular buy? I think it's, I have to, again, think about it. But I, initially I'm like, what? But I'm not sure I should do that. Oh, it's retail bankruptcy or bankruptcy was sort of invented for retail. And it's a very attractive construct. And that's why PPP is stupid. We should let companies go through bankruptcy, but that's another talk show.

But with bankruptcy, with retail, you get to go in and get out of all the bad leases, which are usually a big part of the reason why you're going bankrupt. You get to renegotiate the existing leases. And I'm trying to give an analogy here. Carnegie Mellon, a great school, a good brand, but it has an amazing faculty. So the faculty or the personnel are bigger than the brand, if you will. And department stores have the best management of the most underrated sectors. They have actually really fantastic e-commerce. Macy's is a multi-billion dollar e-commerce company. JCPenney's has actually very strong e-commerce. Sears had strong e-commerce. Macy's is a multi-billion dollar e-commerce company. JCPenney has actually very strong e-commerce. Sears had strong e-commerce. These guys are very

strong in terms of e-commerce. What they're getting here is up there, I think, 850 stores. They'll keep 200 or 300. I'm not even sure there'll be stores. They'll just be really well-placed warehouses that they can turn on in 60 days as opposed to two to three years. Inexpensive real estate already with distribution facilities, et cetera, et cetera. I think it's a name at Walmart, too. Like, this is how Walmart – they're creating the next Walmart. That is what I think. Because, you know, Walmart's been such a successful business, including technologically.

But, you know, they've been trying to innovate here. But I think it's a really interesting way to get into that. I'm just glad we're not going to have to talk about it anymore. Remember about 10 years ago, all we talked about for two years was Greece going out of business and creating contagion across Europe. And we just talked about it. It's like, I've been waiting for JCPenney's to go bankrupt for 10 years because I'm just sick of talking about it.

It's not surprising they went bankrupt. It's surprising it took this long. But the other thing, the other thing that Amazon will get here is JCPenney actually has a pretty strong apparel business and they have some great private label brands. One of the fastest zero to a billion brands in the history of apparel was Arizona. Do you know what Arizona is? No. It's their denim brand. They got sick of selling Levi's and they said, we can do this. We realized our access or custody to the consumer and our ability to merchandise

means we can build a denim brand. And they built a billion dollar business around Arizona denim. So they have private label brands. They're pretty good at apparel. These are warehouses. What would an Amazon jean be called? Gosh, I don't know. Yeah, I know. Listen, when I'm in this just bezos bezos feels like a fun product bezos is a fun product um you know maybe for a line of um i was thinking kitchen equipment then i was thinking of personal devices as you as you might imagine anyway um the uh this is an interesting thing because i was just in the whole foods and I was noticing how much stuff is Whole Foods now, how much stuff is Whole Foods branded. And I go to grab it because the price differential is massive.

Like it's really quite – it's half. I was looking and I was sort of looking at two. I think it was pasta or something. It was – whatever it is, in every aisle there's a choice and the price differential is amazing. And the quality is fine. And so it's a really interesting question of whether you would. Jeans is a different thing because I think people like the fashion idea behind them and very careful because I know my kids buy brands on some things and not on others. But it's definitely, I think it's right into the eyes, a shot right to the face of Walmart.

Well, according to Amazon, they never go after anyone. They're just focused on the consumer. You're probably right. But JCPenney's, they've got good e-commerce. They pick up really well-located warehouses, good private label apparel brands, and they get it. Penny's on the dollar. And you're seeing this. I mean, this is just the markets.

And this feeds into a larger story. The markets are up, right? And the NASDAQ is up for the year. And I interviewed Aswath Damodaran on my TV show premiering tonight at 10 p.m., No Mercy, No Malice. But anyways, he talked about the market. And he said, I said, it just makes no sense that the market is up. The NASDAQ has decided the world is a better place today than it was January 1st. And he said, well, the market, sort of the wisdom of crowds basically is saying there might be a rough year or two years, but in three or four

years, we're in a better place. And one of the reasons we're in a better place, quite frankly, is that JCPenney's goes out of business and those assets become assets of of amazon and amazon is able to produce five times the number of dollars on the same human capital as jc penny so what the market's basically saying is that this culling is good once we get through the other end we're going to have a set of stronger fighter you know although although the question is what becomes of all the people as you talk about corporations it's not good for society but the nas Nasdaq could give a shit about society. There was a story in the Times saying 42% of the jobs will not come back,

which is amazing. Like, this culling has a personal price. What's interesting is that you, now, you didn't think last week that they should buy Neiman Marcus, though, which was interesting.

Yeah, I don't, you know, see, here's the thing. Because they're in this high-fashion idea with Vogue. Why not do that? There are a lot of fancy malls. But when you say buying, if I show up to the liquidation sale at JCPenney's, am I buying them? I mean,

buying is a very amorphous term here because if Amazon goes in and quote unquote buys it, they're going to buy some of the real estate. They'll take over some of the brands. I mean, this is a few different people at the bargain bin. J jc pennies was i i don't know what the the structure of the relationship is going to be and how much of the firm they'll actually keep they're not going to keep the brand yeah not at all why would so and if they close 70 of the stores or 80 of the stores and they lay off 70 or 80 are they really buying the company they're buying the assets they're buying the assets and possibly some of the technology and Are they really buying the company? They're buying the assets. They're buying the assets and possibly some of the technology and some of the people.

It's just a sort of plug and play for them as they please, as they please, and that's what they'll do. Although they haven't closed a lot of Whole Foods, which is interesting. I don't think there's an asset. Well, no, Whole Foods was a growing, healthy company, though. Whole Foods was on the way up.

JCPenney is, I mean, gosh, JCPenney's been dying for 10 years. Although, on the whole now, I haven't been in JCPenney's forever, but Whole Foods is not as good as an experience as it was when it was owned by the previous people. Is that right? You don't think it's degraded? It's degraded. It's still better than, say, a giant food or a Safeway. That is certainly true. But in in general and the prices are lower for sure because of all these amazon products these whole products but it's not uh the people look relentlessly under siege the workers and it's just it's a different you can feel it it doesn't feel it doesn't feel the same it had it had sort of this fun sort of i don't know i can't explain

it it's not the same it's not the same it's a nice place to hang out well yeah whole foods was the only grocery store in america we would go buy something and then stay there to eat it yeah like i don't stay there i mean not because of coronavirus but it's just it's a different store and it feels like a different store and like you can make a joke like i often make a joke when i'm checking out and i said making jeff Bezos richer and every employee is like like that like they're not happy they're like they don't go yeah Jeff Bezos is great they do not and they actually there's a look like that comes like a dark look like they work for the for the for you on my whole food story yeah sure really quick true story really quick yeah which means it won't

be more longer than 11 minutes okay we'll sell more underwear ads. So I was going to a dinner party. This is just after I'd moved to New York, and I was going to one of these fancy dinner parties. And I thought, okay, I've got to get a bottle of wine. And I bought some cheese and a bottle of wine, trying to pretend I'm more Rive Gauche than I am. And they had the most beautiful, like giant, bulbous, sexy, I think red grapes. And I picked up just this massive like clump of them. And I walked up to the checkout with my wine and cheese and grapes. $17. And I set the grapes down and she said, she said, are you sure? And she weighed them down. I'm like,

yeah. And I said, and I stopped and I go, how much? And I'm not joking. She said, it's $31. Oh, wow. And I think this is one of my better moments in low bar i grabbed one and ate it and said how about now that's my whole food story that's a good whole food story that's my whole food story 31 dollars of grapes oh man my introduction to new york you bought them i'm glad that you said i like to signal i like to signal my worth as a mate through expensive you are not any more attractive because you look like an idiot for spending $31 on grapes.

Hey, I got a Webby. Listen. I got a Webby. I got three. Anyway, all right. We're going to take a quick break and come back to talk about Saudi Arabian investments in big companies because that's happening, of course, and a listener mail question. course, and a listener mail question. of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter.

These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people.

These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive?

Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. to reinvent yourself. The all-new Reimagined Nissan Kicks is the city-sized crossover vehicle that's been completely revamped for urban adventure.

From the design and styling to the performance, all the way to features like the Bose Personal Plus sound system, you can get closer to everything you love about city life in the all-new Reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at www.nissanusa.com slash 2025 dash kicks. Available feature, Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation. Welcome back, Scott, you grape lover. Grape lover. Lover of expensive grapes.

Number three, the future ex-Mrs. Galloway. Three awards, too, by the way. Anyway, this story, you had one. Let me just make that clear. This next story suggestion actually comes from Ashan, a pivot listener in Sri Lanka.

We have fans in Sri Lanka. We're big in Sri Lanka. We're big in Sri Lanka. I think we're probably little in Sri Lanka, but we have a fan there. So anyway, Saudi Arabia's

public investment fund, PIF is what it's called, has been on a spending spree since the pandemic started. They've snapped up about $7.7 billion with their shares in some major companies. The $300 billion public in PIF bought stakes in Boeing, Facebook, Disney, Marriott, and Starbucks. It also invested in two big banks, Citigroup and Bank of America, and oil giants BP Total and Royal Dutch Shell. Well, they're on a spending spree, a discount spending spree, although some of the stocks are not that far off. What do you think about this? What is your thoughts on the Saudis

coming, these thuggish, horrible, especially led by MBS, coming in and doing this? So I'm still kind of conflicted around whether, I't have the same what I'll call issue with them buying stock as you do but the look they're buying great companies some people would argue on sale although they're not buying Facebook on sale which just hit an all-time high Disney you know companies like Disney Boeing these companies are royal even even a Royal Dutch I think I think petroleum based companies are royal, even a Royal Dutch. I think petroleum-based companies are probably great buys right now. These are really one well-run company. Companies, when we decide to build solar farms, you need trucks and fuel. And anyways, my point is they're getting, I think it's great.

They're getting, these are long-term investors, I think, in terms of 50 and 100-year timelines. And these are outstanding companies with strong management, some of which are kind of 20%, 30% off of their high. So yeah, I think it's- All right. So they're doing this. And of course, they were before trying to be edgy by doing the Vision Fund, which of course, Masayoshi Son said that he made a mistake. He compared himself to Jesus. I didn't even understand the comparison um jesus was misunderstood okay no he wasn't everybody understands jesus no one understands we work evaluation um what what they were in that they were doing those things and putting money all over the place and uber and various places so this is like a flight to quality or stability this feels like this feels Buffett-y, actually.

And I know they've been in other things, but they were sort of being more splashy around the more risky funds. They've lost all that money. Yeah, this is return to quality, flight to quality. You're not going to get fired for buying Disney. Yeah. flight to quality, you're not going to get fired for buying Disney. It's just, whereas you might get fired or dismembered for losing whatever it is, $40 billion back in Masayoshi-san. So like Vision One is in their rear view mirror. I think, I don't know what they make some crazy

amount of cash flow every day, just from the oil they sell. And they're smart investors. I've had limited exposure to some of the sovereign wealth funds out of sell. And they're smart investors. I've had limited exposure to some of the sovereign wealth funds out of the Gulf, and they're incredibly impressive, smart, thoughtful, rigorous investors. So it's, yeah, this is, you're right. Buffett-y is exactly the right way to describe this. And they're also, they tend to be good shareholders. They tend to be, they tend to show up and be very supportive, and they're long-term shareholders. If they're also, they tend to be good shareholders. They tend to be, they tend to show up and be very supportive and they're long-term shareholders. If you're a company to a certain extent, other than the dismemberment and the corruption. Other than the dismemberment? I don't

know. I had a lot of people worried in Silicon Valley to be affiliated with the Saudis. I thought that would take two seconds for them to move on. And then they cash their check. Everyone pretends to give a good goddamn and then they cash their check. Yeah. But just from a shareholder standpoint, they're long-term shareholders. They're usually very supportive. They don't show up and heckle the cheap seats. They're not looking at the short-term swings in the stock. From just the pure semantics of what it quote-unquote means to be a good shareholder, they're considered very good shareholders. All right. But what about the other stuff? Come on. You can't abandon it. I get it. I get it. Do you think Uber, do you think a tech company should not take sovereign money out of the Gulf? I have said so. I have said they have to. No, you think they shouldn't. Well, I was at an

interesting dinner party. Those are my dogs. Sorry. I was at a dinner party where, I can't stop them. Did you bring grapes? Did you bring grapes? No, I did not bring grapes. I wouldn't let my children eat $31 grapes. Anyway, because they're like, they like eat everything. They're like Hoovers. I lost my train of thought. I was at a dinner party where they were talking about this money, like different money that they were getting. And they made it, they stack ranked people.

And I described this in a column, like, oh, Singapore is good money. And, you know, they're a little bit, you know, they clamp down on people and human rights, but you're not human rights on personal privacy rights. But they're better than this group and better than this group. And then, you know, down near the bottom were the Russians and the Saudis at that point. And so it was sort of a stacker. And there's people at the bottom that take the Saudi now. I mean, I don't think certain people would pause two seconds. It's all over the valley. And here's the thing, I understand if you're going to, you know, my sense is you go all in or all out. And that is, if you're not going to take Saudi money, then what you want to do is you want the government ideally to say that we're not going to let this government or these funds invest here because you're disarming unilaterally against your competitors who have access to cheaper capital, who can use that to jump out ahead of you. And if you don't take their money, if the US were to say, all right, we're not taking Gulf money. And I get the argument. And I think there's a solid argument and we should have it.

All that's going to do is increase the valuation and lower the cost of capital of Chinese internet companies. And so I don't think it's cut and dry. I don't know. If I were the CEO of a fast-growing company, and as is the case now with the internet, where it's more about access to cheap capital, that is the weapon. That is what built Netflix and Amazon. You want the cheapest capital. It's like, okay, am I good for me? I'm going to be moral. And my competitor, it's not moral to go out of business. It's not moral to be crushed by a big tech company. And one of the keys to that not happening is access to very cheap capital from good shareholders. And as shareholders, they tend to be good.

So I think this is a tough one. And I think CEOs, I think the majority of CEOs who are thoughtful and have good boards, I think it's difficult to decide you're not going to do, I mean, you're going to not, so they shouldn't, none of these guys should have taken SoftBank money. SoftBank money. Well, in this case, in this case, in this case, this is public investments. They can't really stop it.

Someone was going off against Disney. I was like, they can't stop this out. Yeah, they can't. You sell your stock, period. Yeah. So, I mean, they can decry it and decry, they could say something public. We don't like these people.

No, they're not going to say anything. They're not going to say anything. And it's hard. I mean, I can decry it and decry. They can say something public. We don't like these people. No, they're not going to say anything. They're not going to say anything. And it's hard. I mean, I think about it a lot. The other day someone asked me if I would take money from News Corp, and I said absolutely not. I just wouldn't. But I have choices, right? I'll have choices for jobs and things like that.

And I wouldn't. I actually would make even if it was more. But what if you had shareholders? What if a lot of people who didn't have the luxury of living the fat life of Kara Swisher and you had a lot of shareholders, a lot of employees with options, and at the end of the day, your job is to serve as a fiduciary for all stakeholders, not to impose your morals and your political, your geopolitical viewpoint on stakeholders and employees who are all looking to make a living. I would still do it, and they'd know it going in.

Like, this is what you're getting with me, and if you're with me, this is what you do. This is what you do. This is what happens when you roll with the cat. That's right. When you roll with the cat, you can't take pictures. We will not be hanging out with Rupert Murdoch. I had a really interesting meeting with someone from a book person, and they were lovely, and they knew. They knew. I was like, I will never. You could back up the truck, and And they were lovely and they knew. They knew. I was

like, I will never. You could back up the truck and I still wouldn't take your money. And it was really interesting from one of their companies. And so although I might take their money and then give it all to like Australian climate change relief and say something publicly or there's ways to do it. It's a really interesting question. In this case, Disney, Marriott, Starbucks, Boeing, Facebook cannot stop the Saudis from buying. But it is an interesting shift away from things like the Vision Funds. And I don't think they'll be back anytime soon to those funds. They will be back, but they will not be back anytime soon.

Anyway, Scott, we've got a listener question. Roll tape. You've got, you've got. I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hey, Scott and Kara. Jeff Gadway here from Waterloo, Canada. Interested to get your takes on Disney head of streaming, Kevin Mayer,

going to TikTok as CEO and COO of parent company ByteDance. With streaming becoming a key way to help Disney extend distribution, many considered Mayer to be a strong contender to replace Iger, or at least a pivotal part of their leadership team going forward. What does his departure mean for Disney and for the future success of Disney Plus? What could it mean for TikTok and their strategy going forward? Thanks for taking my question and big congrats to both of you and the

entire Pivot team on your incredible work and the big Webby win this week. Thanks again and have a great week. Alright, listen, I have an opinion about this. Go ahead, what do you want to say? He was lovely from Waterloo. That guy wasn't lovely, he was plucky. He was either very caffeinated or plucky.

No, Canadians. He seems like the kind of guy you'd want in your company because he'd be a good culture carrier, like really happy all the time. We're laying off 30% of the people and he'd be like, this is an opportunity. I love him. I know Kevin Mayer. I think this is fascinating. They're literally all nice people. They're not all nice, but in any case, many of them are. Many more of them, they are here. Kevin Mayer is a fascinating executive. He obviously was in line to replace, and it was a surprise that he did not get that job.

That was a big, and he had, I think he had worked at the parks. He has so much experience, very strong. Disney's got a bench, right? So he's got to have been like, this is my shot. I'm not going to lose my shot in the Hamiltonian song way. been like this is my shot i'm i'm not gonna lose my shot in the hamiltonian song way and you know i think this is the precursor to them spinning tiktok off off of the company that's been there's been rumors of that and this is the guy to do it he's got a lot of credibility um i don't think it'll affect disney plus i think they've got that in place and there's tons of good executives there

that could run it um but they just there wasn wasn't room enough for Kevin and Bob Chapak, whatever his name is, and the other Bob hanging around, Bob Iger, who's obviously the best CEO of all of them. So I think it's a good move. I think it's a great move by TikTok and I think it's to get it going. I think TikTok's not been a flash in the pan. I think it's a wonderful product.

I've been using it a lot this week. Really, you use TikTok? I've been testing it out. I've been interested it a lot this week. Really? You use TikTok? I've been testing it out. I've been interested in it. I'm interested. Of course, interestingly, I have it on another phone. That's called a midlife crisis. You just should not be on TikTok.

No, it's not. No, I watch Sarah Cooper. You're trying to be younger. She's using it. No, I'm not trying to be younger. I think there's an opportunity for lots of people on this side. No, there's an opportunity here. I had an interesting discussion with Gary Vaynerchuk about this.

He's been doing a lot more on TikTok. It would be remiss on us not to examine TikTok as a distribution vehicle for our content and stuff like that. I'm doing this for you. It's not all dancing. And the algorithms there are just superb. They really do know what you want. And that's really what I think it's secret sauce is compared to. Instagram is sort of just random, like it's random, like what you get. In this case, it's always giving you what I want. Anyway, case, it's always giving you what I want. Anyway, I think it's a really big move for them, and I think it's a big move for Kevin Mayer, and I think TikTok's going to explode. I do.

I do. I do. What do you think? Yeah, I think you nailed it. In any company with the quality of Disney, it's the board's job and the CEO's job to have about once a year on a public company board or any good public company board, they'll do a succession review and they'll say, here are our top eight executives and here are two or three that could potentially be CEO. And

if you're not doing that, you're not being a good fiduciary. But he was one of those guys. And every senior executive at a major corporation wakes up every morning and says, good morning, CEO. They all want to be CEO. They all think they should be CEO. And to a certain extent, they've all been told they've got a realistic shot at it. And that's how you keep these people around. These people aren't there to end up at number two or three. They're there because they want to be the CEO of a company. And they hit their 50s. They realize they're going to be dead soon. And they get very focused on being the CEO of a great company. And so whenever you announce who the next CEO is, generally speaking, a few people leave to go be CEO of a lesser company. Again, I'm using

faculty, but when we don't award kids, I say kids, people in their 30s, tenure, they go to generally a lesser brand and get tenure. That's sort of this whole farm system. And TikTok, you're right. It probably signals that TikTok is going to spend because he wouldn't go do it to own shares in a private or to own shares in ByteDance. He wants to own, I mean, he'll probably be, if TikTok is in fact spun, my guess is whatever deal he's garnered, he'll probably get several hundred million dollars or be a billionaire on the IPO. So this is a brilliant move for ByteDance slash TikTok.

He's going to do really well. I think it's a great product. I'm using it. I think it's a terrific product. I think it's really inventive and interesting. Now, the issue – And what do you – other than the algorithms, what do you love about TikTok? I've been using Instagram a little bit more lately just to test things out.

It's easier to use. It's easier to use. I don't know. It's sort of an easy-to-use Snapchat. I don't know how else to put it. Snapchat is so much more inventive than all of them, and yet it's harder to use. And I like Instagram. I see the value in it.

But it's not, as usual, it's harder to use and so um and i like instagram i see the value in it but it's not it's not as usual it's not being innovated on kevin isn't there the other kevin um the founder um system and so it's just well facebook just announced a pretty innovative move around probably around as well as instagram and what that is it? Gangster move. They're going to commerce. Yeah, it was already happening. I bought so many. I wanted to buy so much stuff on Instagram. It's crazy.

Ads are wonderful. And by the way, Facebook just hit on it. I know, I know. Kara, what did the dog predict about Facebook stock about a year ago? Guess what? Microsoft was always at an all-time high. It still was the least innovative place on the earth. I'm sorry.

I just, great. You predicted. What did the dog say about Facebook stock? Mediocre innovation yields great results. Sorry. Yeah, go ahead. You're ignoring me. It's going to be at an all-time high.

What did the dog? All-time high. Okay. What happened yesterday? All-time high. I know. It would be at 250, but an all-time high of 234 yesterday. They're mediocre.

They're innovation. In any case, TikTok, I think, is their waterloo. I think TikTok is a really interesting business. I think it's really great. I think it's got the muscle behind it. And when it goes public, it's going to be the real competitor. It is no Snapchat in this case. They cannot slap away TikTok, especially this executive.

And the problem TikTok has is that it's the China issue. And if they remove that, and that's what Facebook will try to press on. That's the wound they've got, especially with this added intensity right now. I think this will, if they spin it off, they make it an American company, remove all the things from China. I think it's got a good aim at the heart of Facebook. Thank you very much. Okay. So as you would say, listen to me, listen to me. Your emotions are clouding your judgment. Facebook is just on fire right now. And whoever runs strategy there, I don't know if it's Mark, I don't know if it's Cheryl, they are thinking with such a ridiculously clear blue flame.

Giphy is probably the most interesting $400 million acquisition. They're going to get all kinds of signals. They're going to incorporate better visual tools into their platforms. And they got it for $400 million. They just did this thing with Jomart in India where they probably potentially could be the most interesting social commerce company in the fastest growing economy. And they just announced this big Facebook shops initiative. They're on fire. Facebook, I mean, you just got to give it to them all. They've said to their 30,000 lawyers and Cheryl, just be our heat shield, be our beard, be our shark repellent. But there are people ignoring all the noise and are very focused

on long term strategy they're on fire right now they remind me so much of Microsoft they are the Microsoft of this age they were like that too and they did they were like that too I just

I think they're also a young people repellent there's not a young person I know who thinks it's a great thing but there's think they're also a young people repellent. There's not a young person I know who thinks it's a great thing. But, you know, there's lots of other people than young people. But I think TikTok, I want you to try TikTok for a week and then tell me. You need to try it. It's really a good, it's really well done. It's so intuitive.

And I'm, interesting creative people are on TikTok. And I always, it's like neighborhoods that shift over in cities. The gays are there. You know what I mean? Or whatever. Yeah. No, I need to spend more time on TikTok, less time on Chattapoo. Okay.

All right. One more quick break and we'll be back. We're just going to roll right over that. I'm ignoring it. I'm ignoring it. The people heard it. You're just going to ignore that. And I let them sit there.

You're just going to ignore that. All right. them sit there. You're just going to ignore that. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day,

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We are. But give us an edgier prediction than that. That's obvious. That's just obvious. I think that Shopify is going to make a big acquisition. I think that they now have the market capitalization to start buying. I actually would have been more, I wouldn't be surprised if Shopify shows up and becomes a competitive bidder for JCPenney's or one or more.

Tell me more. Tell me more. I don't know anything, but Shopify now has- I don't know if you don't know. And I think you have insiders everywhere, but keep going. Go ahead. Shopify now has such an incredibly, I don't call it inflated, but it's so fully valued that if they don't have every investment bank in the world and an incredibly robust corporate development department trying to find acquisitions, they're not doing their job because it's almost impossible to justify the valuation based on their organic growth right now. So they should be, I got to think,

I got to think a bunch of content companies, retailers, whoever it is, are hearing from Shopify. So in the next 90 days, we're going to see a very interesting acquisition. What else? What else? JC Penney, what else? Oh, they're going to kind of have their pick of the litter because, I mean, what if,

kind of the interesting move here, the gangster move, in my view, would be if Shopify purchased Macy's. Macy's has great high-end brands. They have fantastic e-commerce. They'd be a friendly acquisition. They would be a friendly acquisition. That's right.

And Macy's needs to figure out something. They have great real estate. They could probably spin their real estate into a REIT and pay for a third of the acquisition. Anyway, there's going to be, for the first time in a while, something resembling a bit of a Canadian invasion. I think Shopify is going to buy a big American firm. All right. That is really – I was not expecting that. I like that.

I'm unexpected. That's how I keep our third marriage fresh. That's how I keep it fresh. I like that one. You know, someone counted the amount of times I said interesting on this show. There's how I keep it fresh. I like that one. You know, someone counted the amount of times I said interesting on this show. There's something wrong with that. 23 times. Is that a bad word?

No, that was interesting. This is not just interesting. This is, hmm. Excuse me. Ah, that's really smart. I think Shopify is another company, another great company that's really, I like seeing these people that challenge the bigs. It's the rim of our generation. Either way, TikTok, the TikTok challenges the Facebook, the Shopify challenges the Amazon.

There's no one challenging Google except for possibly the Justice Department. But I like DuckDuckGo, but not going to happen. Give me a break. Not going to happen. Listen to me, they're trying. DuckDuckGo. They're trying. They're fighting the good fight.

The only people who use DuckDuckGo are those people on those Zodiacs trying to ram a whaling ship. I mean, if you're using duck, duck, go, it means you're just so far out there. All right. I mean, it's literally. Save the whales. Listen to me. Search duck, duck, go. Listen, two interviews I have later this week.

I'm interviewing Dara Kosrashani and Brian Chesky, not together. Give me one question for each, and then we're going to go. Yeah, Dara, can you understand why with five or six million people not having access to health insurance, with a large portion of those five or six million people, it ends up not making minimum wage. Can you understand why people would legitimately want the FTC or the DOJ to break up a merger that would result in two companies owning 90% of food delivery? Isn't this just a really bad idea? Wouldn't any lawmaker that doesn't say no fucking way have their head up their ass if they don't get in the way of your acquisition here? Isn't this just a no-brainer to not allow this? Nice. What about Brian?

Oh, that's just super fascinating around what is, when does he expect to see a return and why, and how will it reshape or recontour the hospitality, specifically the hotel business? Yeah, he's in better shape than hotels, I think. Like, I think people are going to go for Airbnb's. And also, they've hired some really interesting executives. Well, you can variabilize his costs. If you're at the Marriott Boca Raton, you can bring your costs down 40%, maybe even 50%. But even if you board the place up, you still have the mortgage on the place.

You still have to keep it fresh. You have to clean it. You have to – he can literally – I i mean other than his personnel at headquarters which my guess is he'll he'll get a lot of the gunk out and laugh you know decent he already has a bunch of people um he can variabilize his costs way down so anyways i think airbnb is i think more interesting is the people he's hired he's hired some he hired a very interesting executive from Apple to take over for someone who stepped down the COO, Belinda, who is quite good. So I think it's interesting. Yes, I think he'll be in a very interesting place.

He's a really emotional executive, and I don't mean that negatively. He really does talk about things in a much more human way. He's groovy. He's groovy. Anyway, Scott, Disney World is starting to open again. Are you going to go? I'm definitely, it's not if, it's when. My kids are, you know, nine and 12 year old boys. You got to take them to Disney and make lightsabers. So I'm really excited about Galaxy's Edge. I've been dying to check that out. How about you? Are you going to

go back? No, I never go to Disney World. Now I'm going to double down on not going to. My brother's a big Disney person. No, I'm not. I'm just don't go to Disney. My brother's a Disney fan, so he can go. Dr. Swisher? I don't go. No, no, no, no, no.

The other one? The one you don't talk about? The Tiffany of your life? The Tiffany Trump of your life? He's a good guy. He's a little conservative for my taste, but he's a good guy. He's a good father. How about I say that? He's a great father. He's a good guy. He's a little conservative for my taste, but he's a good guy. He's a good father. How about I say that?

He's a great father. He's a great husband. And his political views are disturbing on many levels. That's how it is. If you had to pick two of the three, you'd probably pick good father and good husband. He's good. He is. That is true.

He's a good golfer, by the way. This guy sounds like the whitest man on earth. He really is. He's a good guy. He's a guy the whitest man on earth. He really is. He's a good guy. He's a guy. He's, whatever. Okay. He's great.

Does he wear Britannia jeans? I'm trying to think how he could be any whiter. He wears Bezos jeans. And polos? Does he wear logo polos? Corporate logo polos? He's down that avenue, yes. But anyway, he's a, I'm not going to talk about my brother.

He's a good guy. I don't want to insult my brother. He is what he is. That's all. Where do you think – I'm going to see him. The fissure in your relationship developed. When did it happen, Kara?

Talk to me. When he was a kid. What happened? We don't have a fissure. What happened? He's – my older brother and I are very much the same personality, very outgoing. He is not as outgoing. He is quiet.

He's brilliant. So there's no fissure but the swishers do not have fissures because you know what this is this pandemic is an enormous opportunity to strengthen those types of relationships cara that's right i know that i know i just don't want to talk about hillary clinton with him anymore anyway anyhow anywho uh does he know you think he's a good husband and a good father? Have you said that to him? I think he does. I have said that to him. He should be proud of his fatherhood, and he should be proud of his being a husband. I mean, at the end of the day, that's kind of priority number one, right?

I have said that to him. That is where I focus. That is where I'm going to focus, and that is where I'm going to say I'm going to go visit him. He's a sweetheart. See, whereas my dad— Thank you for this session. Where is my dad? Outstanding political congruence, but he's not a great father.

He's not a great father. Well, I would trade the other one. You'd give up that? Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. I like my family quite a bit.

That was harsh. I didn't mean that, Dad. Great year. Yes, you did. You totally mentioned. That was harsh. Listen, my mom, as they say, is a piece of work. And she's out and about in Florida.

She's probably going to Disney World. She'll come and visit you soon and pass along some coronavirus germs with you if you'd like. Anyway, don't forget if there's a story in the news. This took a weird turn. Don't forget if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and you want to hear our opinion on, email us at pivot at voxmedia.com to be featured on the show. Scott, please read us out. Our show today was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. And this episode was engineered by Fernando Fernandez. You sexy beast who I haven't met. I want that name. With that name, I would do so much damage. I have a podcast. My name is Fernando Fernandez. Oh my God. thanks to him engineering boom so our executive

producer is Erica Anderson special thanks to Drew Burrows and Rebecca Castro if you like what you heard download or subscribe and most importantly reach out to your siblings and tell them you love them repair and strengthen those relationships good intentions feeling nice things about people are not enough if you're a loving person, say loving and generous things. An enormous opportunity to strengthen the key relationships in our lives. Scott, you're a handsome man. Go on!

That's it. That's all I got. That is all I got. Nice smiling ear to ear. That is all I got. Nice teeth. Nice teeth. There you go.

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