Pivot - Tariff Turmoil, Trump’s Tesla Ad, and Newsom’s Bannon Interview

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

Kara and Scott discuss Amazon's Prime Video streaming “The Apprentice,” and Steve Bannon’s guest appearance on Gavin Newsom’s podcast. Then, the tariff whiplash continues, and President Trump is not ruling out a recession. Elon Musk plans to donate $100 million to Trump’s political operation after that Tesla ad at the White House… stick around for Scott’s prediction on how long the bromance will last. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on Bluesky at @pivotpod.bsky.social. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I gotta get dressed for Whoopi Goldberg. You know who's on right after me? Donny Osment. Donny Osment? That is literally, literally just when I thought your flexes couldn't get any weaker, you're bragging about that? Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. How are you doing, Scott? I just saw you last night when we were together. Yeah. I was through. It was fun. Did you like it? They love us together there on Anderson Cooper. Oh, on AC? I like AC and I like CNN and they do a good job. He's a real pro. I love kind of seeing how the sausage gets made.

Anyway, we had a beautiful time and it was very nice to see you. It's very good to see you. Nice to see you. We've seen a lot of each other route South by Southwest. We have. We've been hanging. We've been rolling. Yeah. Are you tired of me? No. I mean, I was tired of you years ago, but no more tired of you, I should say.

That's what I felt. It's nice to see you. I always enjoy seeing you. Last night, literally, we went to dinner and George and I just like lean back and let you and Jess go out. Yeah, I like her a lot. She's unusually tall. I didn't realize that until she got up. Oh, really? Yeah. I think she played basketball in high school. Yeah. She's a tall gal.

Anyway, are you tired? I made Scott come early to work today because I'm going on The View. I'm convinced for guys, being tall is like big tits. A woman just gets a natural amount of attention. What? She has a large, it's so true, think about it. Okay. For, if a woman has big boobs, she just gets an unnatural amount of attention. And I think it's the same for a guy if he's tall.

I think height is the new boobs for men. You know how you get a lot of attention? You jump up and down to the stage in Austin. I have had that picture sent to me. That was magic. So many times. That was comedy gold, TV. The favorite, my favorite thing was you just finally

going, the audience really responded when you said, sit down. Yeah, I know, but I was sitting there going, sit down. Sit down. Sit down, sit down. I've gotten that picture sent to me, like what is going on here. Yeah, just giving the ladies a little bit of daddy,

a little bit of dessert. A little bit of dessert, a little bit of dessert with their South by South, with their chicken fajitas with queso, a little dog, a little topping of the dog. Give the people what they want, Kara. How about, what would you like for Christmas? I'd like a little Scott. No, I don't think so, but I did get that picture sent to me and asked me what was happening, and I said,

a typical day in the life of Pivot. Here's what makes you funnier or more comfortable with being unfunny. Just the recognition, we're all going to be dead soon. That's right. Okay. Yeah. It just takes away all fear. Let me think. I'm comfortable with being unfunny. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah, well, comfortable being unfunny trying to be funny.

Like taking risks, right? Right. That's true. It's like a lot of times, as being unfunny trying to be funny, like taking risks, right? Right, that's true. It's like a lot of times, as anyone who listens to this show will know, a lot of my jokes don't land. And here's the thing, anyone not laughing, you're going to be dead soon and so am I. Oh, okay.

Well, those pictures will endure. That's the good thing. That's definitely some therapy for my voice. Death decisions are the metaphor of my life. You know that. That's what I always do when I'm deciding what to say and do. Yeah. We've both had, well, you had obviously a health scare and you lost a parent very young.

I'm a raging atheist. I think a very real sense of the finite nature of life is an absolute blessing. I think it really is. As you know, that's Steve Jobs' essay that he did. Actually, it was a speech that he did at Stanford. I read all the time. I recommend it to everybody. It's all about living.

About denying your daughter under oath to avoid child support payments? No, that is not. Let's pretend he's Jesus Christ because he invented a fucking phone. No, he didn't invent the phone. You're part of the acolytes. By the way, I just want to call it out. I disliked Elon well before you. That is true.

You used to be his defender. Yeah, I did. You're right, I agree with you, I did. Well, I was mostly attracted to, he was focused on important things, I was so tired of people. You're right, I was. There's no way out of it. There was. But I think I'm more than made up for it. I feel like I'm more than made up for it.

Yeah, you're catching up. I know, I'm catching up. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today. I'm in New York, as I said. I'm picking up my mom, and then I'll go back down to Washington. I've been in Washington for a little while, but we have a lot to get to today because Washington is where the action today is because of the market chaos from the Trump terrorist and the Tesla stunt at the White House, the car sale at the White House. We've got a lot to talk about. But first, Amazon announced this week that seven seasons of Donald Trump's reality show The Apprentice will soon be streaming on Prime Video.

This follows Amazon paying a reported $40 million to license a, not even own, license a Melania Trump documentary. Trump's cut of the new streaming deal hasn't been revealed, but he was an executive producer on the show and he actually is well compensated when it was shown. Netflix also just made a deal with Tony Hinchcliffe, the comedian who sparked controversy with that racist joke at Trump rally last October about Puerto Ricans. Talk to me about this. I watched all these seasons of The Apprentice. I can see why you would buy this because he's the president,

he's popular with half the country. I like the show, so I kind of get it. I'm surprised that it wasn't available widely. I don't recall looking for it, and I don't know why you'd watch it again necessarily. Tony and Ange-Cliff, I get they're going to invest in all these things like this going forward, and they're going to be behind the times because the ones you want to get are the Bill Burrs or whatever, which they already have, of course. But what do you think of these programming moves?

I think comedians doing really well is really important on both sides of the aisle. And so good for him, good for, is it Netflix that's bringing him on? Yeah, Netflix. Who is it? Yeah. The thing that's more troubling is the following. There's nothing wrong with, if Amazon decides

in terms of programming to bring on whatever shows they want from the past that help cement their value proposition. The problem is that, okay, we have what appears to be Amazon overpaying for the Melania Trump documentary. Absolutely, in that case, yes. We have Jeff Bezos giving a million dollars to the Nile Road campaign and under what feels like duress.

We have also a kind of strange ironic timing where the owner, the same guy of the Washington Post has decided they don't need to have an opinion section, which feels very, very, quite frankly, like he's acquiescing to pressure from Trump. So the problem is, is that if we end up in a situation where every person in power starts to take, if you will, kind of soft bribes in exchange for possibly exonerating that company from certain regulation or tariffs, you just, you have, you end up with one of the reasons India has not, quite frankly, kept pace with China. 20 years ago, most analysts would have said, half of analysts 20, 30 years ago would have said,

the next enormous growth economy, half would have said China, half would have said India. India is a democracy, English speakers, huge emphasis on education, strong with tech. It wasn't immediately obvious that China was gonna absolutely crush India in terms of growth. But here's one of the big problems with India. It is wildly fucking corrupt.

Local officials and politicians extract a lot of unfair rents from businesses, which makes everyone less competitive and creates incentives for more and more corruption. China, on a regular basis, finds corrupt officials and business people and executes them. Probably not the right way to go, but they are very serious about corruption and that creates more robust competitive workplace. We are headed more towards India right now than we have been in the past. Yeah. Oh, that's, I was not expecting this, this India move. This is really interesting. I would agree. This is, the Milani thing is such, it feels like such grift. I mean, they don't own it. The money is ridiculous. They're not going to get the watching out of it.

I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's whack when that was the case. It's a bribe. That felt like a bribe. The Washington Post things certainly did. And it continues to do by the way they lost their very, the very excellent head of public relations, their communications lab, who's a pro.

So many people are leaving there. communications left who's a pro. So many people are leaving there. Ruth Marcus, also a columnist, great columnist, one of the most popular columnists left when they spiked a piece that was mild at best, which she published in The New Yorker. She's been there forever. She was there when I was at the Washington Post. The apprentice, I'm going to say it's a reasonable enough decision, I guess, for that one. But you're right. This looks like payments to Donald Trump in some fashion or

ways to get an advantage with him in some way, especially Amazon, all told. Yeah. Don't forget, this is the guy that essentially opened a Swiss bank account that any foreign entity could deposit money into and only Donald Trump gets the receipts and knows what is going into that bank account. And it's called the Trump coin. He basically set up the ultimate vessel for quiet, off-record bribes. And where do we go? A lot of Republicans will claim, and I think there's a real argument here, Scott, we're

just less opaque about it than Democrats. We cut out the middlemen of lobbyists and of special interest groups and of people giving speeches. And what do you know? Oh, they get that too. What are you talking about? But theoretically, it's a fair argument. And this is where I just want to bust the solutions.

I think the right solution here is Singapore. And that is, I believe every congressperson and every senator should be paid a million to $3 million a year. I think the president should be paid $10 million a year. But in exchange for that, there is absolutely zero, zero corruption, no speeches, no payments, can't work for a lobbyist for five years

after you get out of office, no trading of stocks, just fucking nothing because the incentives here are unfortunately, I'm a very powerful person and I don't make enough money to have a home back in Newport Beach and in DC. And the incentives are quite frankly, just to kind of file with the ethics committee. Maybe they say, oh, you're not supposed to trade stocks.

The penalties are really low. We have to have a zero tolerance for this and dramatically increase their compensation. Yeah, I think that's a great idea. It's what I was sort of yelling about last week is that they're not getting their advantage through innovation and products, they're getting their advantage through access.

And that's a bad sign. It's a bad sign for an industry. It's a bad sign that this is where they're putting their focus and not on what they're making. And it just it looks like you know pigs at the trough is what happens. Anyway, it's not a surprise but I'll be interested to see how the apprentice does. Actually I really like the apprentice as a program although I knew it was all cooked. It was like watching wrestling. And apparently he was handed every single remark he

made on The Apprentice, people who worked there told me that. I never watched The Apprentice, I never saw it. I don't know how it would be interesting now, it'll feel like such a throwback. I'm going to watch a couple of them to see because I did watch them all and I really enjoy them at the time. But then when you go back and watch things you used to watch,

you're like, how in the world did I ever watch that? Like Three's Company, go do that for a little test for yourself, and you'll be like, oh my God, this is not keeping up. Come and knock on our door. I love that, yeah. The running joke was that the guy was supposed to be gay. I mean, that was incredibly homophobic, pretty sexist. And yet you still really like John Ritter.

Yeah, you did. Anyway, don't watch that show. You won't feel good. I don't think you can get it. Maybe Amazon will buy it. You know what show disappointed me the most when I went back? My favorite show, speaking of an obsession with death, my absolute favorite show, no joke, was Six Feet Under.

Did you ever watch that? Of course I did. Yeah, yeah. It was that. I remember thinking this is such incredible creative. was six feet under. Did you ever watch that? Of course I did. On HBO? Yeah, yeah. That, I remember thinking, this is such incredible creative. I thought almost every show, it made you feel, really feel something.

And then it came back on, I think AMC or something, with commercial breaks, and it just absolutely ruined it. And you recognize, it was the first time I thought, people don't realize that streaming's real advantage is no commercials. That storytelling is so much easier when every nine to 11 minutes,

that's what's so amazing about modern family is they imagine they're able to keep the thread, even though they have to interrupt it every 11 minutes with medication telling you you have restless legs. I know, I have a hard time with ads now, it's weird. When I see them on the show, I was up late last night watching Hobbs and Shaw, but they kept having commercials and I didn't know what to do. I was like, what do watching Hobbs and Shaw, but they kept having commercials

and I didn't know what to do. I was like, what do I do now? Why am I waiting for this? Anyway, speaking of things that are perplexing to me, and I know Jess yesterday liked it, but I have a new argument against what she said. California governor Gavin Newsom had none other than Steve Bannon on his podcast. The two kept up a reasonably friendly tone and Newsom didn't push back when Bannon claimed Trump won the 2020 election. He did the same with Charlie Kirk and Michael Savage and things they said that were just absolute nonsense lies, really, essentially.

And didn't mention, for example, Kirk's, he has a wide range of terrible things he said that are really just awful. Their hour long conversation was mostly focused, this abandonment on economic issues and areas of common ground. One of those areas, Elon Musk, let's listen to a clip. Forgive me, but what's his end game? I mean, you know, I know you look, he wants to be the first trillionaire in the world. I mean, what's his end game here?

Well, you know, you guys, you created a governor. I mean, you guys, you know it. By the way, in many respects, California did. It was our regulatory process and our subsidies to create this market. You're 100% right. I think you're right. Newsom isn't the only one making podcasts this week. Former First Lady Michelle Obama has launched a video podcast with the Obama's media company, Higher Ground.

It's with her brother. The podcast IMO, which will focus on, it's in my opinion, on thoughtful conversations about life, is co-hosted with her brother, Craig Robinson. The Newsome one, and I texted him about it, I had a lot of problem with because I understood his need to talk across the aisle with people. First of all, there's a lot of people he could talk to that don't constantly lie, and this first three guests are really problematic in that regard. But if you're going to do that, you have to address the real differences and not debate them but point them out, factual inaccuracies.

And his sort of jocular tone is not, I found it, I feel like it's just a political, he's doing it only for politics and to reach out to mega voters perhaps. I'm perplexed by the entire endeavor and said so to him. What are your thoughts? I think it's really smart. Yeah, I know you think that. Really smart.

Hey look, first off, first off, it's super important that we mix. It's super important that people from the right and the left, I'd love to see a giant, I'm gonna go back, as always, I like to read everything in a personal parable that's kind of relevant adjacent. I was president of the Interfraternity Council, which is like king of the jarheads back at UCLA. I was quote-unquote the head of the governing

body that oversaw the Greek system. And my big idea, it was a time when there was a lot of tension between the fraternities, which were mostly, most obviously all male, mostly white. And we used to have these stupid theme parties that were racist and it would inflame special interest groups who saw us and the administration that saw us as an easy target and the paper was always talking about what awful people we were. Some of it deserved.

And my big idea was like, let's take the Black Students Alliance and METCHA, which was the Latino group, and let's all get together and have beers or get together and play sports together, but let's mix. And of course, we want nothing to do with you fucking weirdos. But I think it's really important that people from different political views get together.

I think it creates empathy with one another. Now, what you're saying is to let just say Biden was not, Biden did not win the 2020, that requires a more honest, hard pushback that says, okay, what evidence actually do you have of that? And you're saying you didn't do that. But in terms of just strategically for Governor Newsom, it's super smart. He's leveraging a new medium. He's going after new voters. He's meeting voters and people where they are on podcasts. And also the tension and the conflict, that's part of the

reason this show is successful. We're not politically aligned on a lot of things. The fact that he can talk about stuff, he one, shows that he's smart, two, he appeals to moderates, three, he's very good going, I don't want to say behind enemy lines. I think if he wants to be president, which I believe he does,

America is going to want someone that they think at the end of the day can sit down with people from pretty far differing perspectives and have a reasonable conversation. And he's showing that. All right. Perspectives, different perspectives. I agree. I think that's fine. I think that's great.

But let me just read. Oliver Darcy wrote a column that I thought was perfect, actually. The harm, of course, isn't just that Newsom is failing to challenge his guests as they lie about important topics to a sizable audience It's that he's actively contributing to the normalization of extremists by treating them as serious policy thinkers Instead of dangerous right-wing talkers who have caused immense damage to our country figures like Bannon Kirk and Savage aren't merely Conservatives with different policy views their performers whose platforms are built on deliberate deceptions their performers whose platforms are built on deliberate deceptions, dangerous lies, and hostility towards basic democratic principles. By inviting them onto his show without seriously challenging their rhetoric, Newsom has introduced these dishonest figures to new audiences,

and he's done it while portraying them as serious voices who deserve respect and consideration. Now he also goes on, I'm going to finish this part, is, Newsom's friendly approach also represented a possible missed opportunity. Real dialogue across political divides can have value, but only when there's actual accountability. Hard-hitting questioning, challenging of false narratives, and yes, fact-checking would have made for interesting show. Imagine how John Stewart or John Oliver would have interrogated the positions of these far-right wing personalities. Had Newsom engaged in this style of interview, his podcast would have served a valuable purpose, exposing rather than amplifying dishonest

media figures. It would have been far more interesting than watching him bro it up with MAGAworld. And he did come to the same conclusion. It's a move that frankly suggests he values his own political future more than holding some of the world's most toxic media figures accountable for their corrosive impacts on society. In his sense, this podcast revealed quite a lot about his character that he's willing to do in the pursuit of power. I really hate to say that, but I would agree with that. I don't see a plus. You know I like when there's debates across things, but these are unreliable and disingenuous people that are doing things

to advantage stories that aren't true. And that's the, and this is what Jess and I argued about when you guys were staring at us, because you spend all your time solving the lie, and then you don't actually have a discussion. Yeah. I mean, I hear that and I'm like, let's clutch our pearls a little harder.

It's not a clutch pearls. Oh yeah, it is for God's sakes. We can have, Steve Bannon served, was a senior advisor to the president. Yeah, and a liar. Okay, let me be clear. I don't like the man. He said publicly that Trump's administration should sue me.

I do not want Steve Bannon to be successful. He had a very senior role in the previous administration. He is very smart. And he says some bat shit crazy things. The problem here was that Governor Newsom should have been able and been more prepared to really push back and say, what you said here makes no sense.

Can you please tell us what your thinking is? But we absolutely need more. Okay, the platform argument, you don't give Alex Jones a platform. You don't give the Tate brothers a platform. I said to Pierce Morgan when I was on the show, I'm like, why do you bring this guy on? You're just adding legitimacy, having him sit next to you on TV. Guys like Charlie Kirk and Steve Vanden, look, Democrats, get over it. And by the way, I would like to see a lot of these crazy, a lot of the more right podcasters bring on AOC.

And the thing, you're a great interviewer, Governor Newsom is not. And what you are able to do is the following, and you guys have to thread a very fine needle. And that is people aren't gonna come on and be made a fool of and get into a shouting match. So you have to show a little bit of respect. And at the end of the day, if they keep lying,

you have to say, okay, I don't believe that's true, but you move on and you try to be hospitable and a good host and present people in their best light. And I think he erred on the side of not pushing back where he probably should have. But I think this is a really healthy thing. I think we need more of this, not less of it. I like when Pete Buttigieg goes on Fox News.

I like when Newsom was doing that with, you know when he did a good job? Ron DeSantis. That was a really interesting debate, okay? Because he pushed back thoughtfully. I don't mind thoughtful discussions. I don't, in fact, a lot of journalists have interviewed Steve Bannon.

I get it, I get why you should do it. The jocular stuff and pretending those things, these people specifically do these things as a way to manipulate people. They aren't doing it, they're doing it not because of their beliefs, they're doing it to tickle MAGA in some way. I just think if you are going to do this, then act like you did with Ron DeSantis. Show some preparation. I don't expect him to be a journalist,

but I don't expect him to pretend this never happened. That's what these things are. We agree. It was how he handled the interview, not whether he should have done it or not. Right. I don't think he shouldn't. What I do think he should do is do the job he did before. And I was perplexed as to why it was like all joking, all joking, all, oh, don't we all get along. And I think some of these people, particularly Bannon, is I think

about whether I would do an interview with him or not. And as part of me, you know, I think I made the joke, you know, is it good to ask, you know, like, because he's warring with Musk, so everyone's like, oh, you should talk to him. I don't know if that's enough common ground to really have anything that's thoughtful in any way, because you're constantly spending your entire interview fixing the lie, and then the conversations about the lie versus actual policy debate. But even that, even that I've been asked, so one of the shows we go on a lot,

sometimes the panelists, I think like, I just can't keep up with the stream of falsehoods. I'm not gonna be able to respond without fact checking real time. But even what you said, I think is valuable to say, look, so much of what you're saying does not sound right, and there's so much of it that we can't keep up with fact checking. I think even that's a fair statement to say you're just flooding the zone.

It feels like you're flooding the zone with non-truths. But really good interviews are able to say, well, actually, I think of when this fairly famous venture capitalist who moved from San Francisco to Miami and started shitposting California long enough so that he could get a reduction in capital gains when he sold the stock, went on CNBC and started basically lying about the earnings of Open Door,

basically saying it was profitable when it wasn't. And Deidre Bolsa fact-checked him real time. She's like, no, you can't say this company is profitable. It's not. She was so prepared, or there was a producer in her ear going, that's not true, push back on that. She essentially real time said, our viewers, I don't want you to lie to our viewers over and over.

We're talking about people's wealth and stock trades. And two or three times she would stop him and say, that's just not true. With politics, it's harder because some of it is subjective, right? I mean, but if you're going to say, like you said, the election, I mean, that to me is just a softball. Like, please show me the evidence

that contradicts the 62 court cases where the judges, including Republican appointed judges and Trump appointed judges, said there was no evidence of election fraud. That's all I wanted. That's essentially, when he did the dissent, when he goes on Fox, I don't think he's hostile. I think he's having a great conversation, actually. I don't think he's like, gotcha. I just was like, what happened to that Gavin?

What in the world happened? And when he announced this, I thought, great idea. You do very well in those environments and the conversations must be had. But this was, I just don't know what he's up to here because it's not the guy who goes on Fox News. It's not the guy who wades into, you know, people he disagrees with. I do know California does need this funding from the Trump administration. I see that he has to be a little more solicitous of these people, but at the same time,

and he kind of wants to denuter them before he runs. And so he doesn't get all the flak that they will inevitably aim at the next Democratic presidential nominee. Speaking of the apprentice, I asked my master if I shaved my ass, does that mean I'm gay? And he says, he who is cleaning his house is expecting visitors.

Oh, that's wrong. That's really, that's awful. I kind of like that. That's perfect. That's perfect. That's my way of saying we need to segue out of this story. We do, I do, but I do wish he had done

what he had done with DeSantis and others and he's not doing that here. You got the last word. This is called our relationship. You got the last word. He should also have left-wing figures he disagrees with. Anyway, apparently they won't go on. He told me they won't go on.

Yes, I know. Get AOC on and Bernie. No, she'd kick his ass. Plus, can you imagine the two of them together? Oh my God. Don't you just hope they both get naked and go out? No, no, I don't. No, I don't in any way. I pay cash money to see Governor Newsom and Representative Ocasio-Cortez.

You know how to get me out of a conversation by making a ridiculous remark about the sexiness. Oh God. And you know what I want? I would want them to have 40 or 50 kids. They become my army and we take over Australia. And I would be the general consulate of Australia and people would love me, Kara. They would have killed you on the outback by then. You would have been gone on the outback. Okay, Scott, let's take a quick break. Now you know how to get me out of a conversation. We come back, Trump's chaotic tariffs.

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The EU and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on Wednesday after President Trump's levies on steel and aluminum went into effect. The markets continue their roller coaster ride, fluctuating with all the tariff pivots, speaking of pivots, which you and I called red light, green light on Anderson Cooper last night, but steadying slightly with positive inflation report, but people are still expecting inflation to rise. I'll note we're recording this Thursday morning, so Trump may change his mind on terror several more times before our listeners hear this.

We'll get into recession concerns, which I'm calling Trump session in a bit, but what do you think will happen? What do you think about these tears of last few days? Are markets overreacting or are they getting it right? The Wall Street Journal reported on a closed door gathering of CEOs this week at the Business Roundtable where an impromptu poll was taken about the economy. Oh, this was the Jeffrey Sonnenfeld one. 22% said stocks would have to fall.

30% before they would take a stand. Jamie Dimon finally did after saying Trump's get over it on the tariffs is now saying this is a bad thing. Start with tariffs. First off, I think Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a gift and he wrote a fantastic opinion piece about how some of these corporate leaders who claim to be leaders and claim to care about America

need to speak up and there haven't been that many. And congratulations to Jamie for kind of stepping into the void and saying what's on everybody's mind. I think you're gonna see more of it. Look, tariffs are the following. They're not universally bad. If China is charging a tariff on our cars, we get to charge a tariff on their cars

until we both decide to lower tariffs. Free trade creates prosperity. You can also probably need a tariff to support certain strategic industries. We probably should have some level of domestic production of steel in case those supply chains are shut down and we need to build tanks or what have you. But when, for example, these aluminum and steel tariffs, we tried that in the last Trump administration and what they found is the following, that, okay, let's assume that the additional revenue created by the tariffs, let's assume that the additional revenue captured by Cleveland Cliffs and US Steel are two largest remaining

steel manufacturers. Their products become more competitive because foreign steel is more expensive, so they get more share, more money, more tax revenue, more jobs. All right, theoretically, it all works. Here's the problem. One, consumers, prices get increased. Consumers have to pay up to $6,000, $8,000, $12,000 more for a truck with these tariffs, which takes down the demand,

which takes down the gross profits of the domestic supplier because their products are more expensive relative to other people's products because we have to increase our input costs. There is a reciprocal tariff almost always, meaning that our products become more expensive overseas. And what you found with the aluminum and steel tariffs is that the increase in the cost of steel made that so many products across America had to increase their prices because steel and aluminum were big inputs,

that the increase in prices reduced demand much more than the incremental income gains from the companies that benefit from their products being more competitive. In some, in almost every case, tariffs don't work. And if you look at what companies do thousands of times a year across the market, they are perfectly trying to calibrate. Nike is perfectly trying to calibrate volume times gross margin and figure out the exact peanut butter and chocolate combination for shareholders.

All right, if we lowered our prices and took our margins down from 30 points to 10 points, we double our volume, but we'd end up with less profit. So they perfectly attempt or attempt to perfectly calibrate across every market, what is the optimal price relative to volume, relative to margin. And when the government comes with tariffs, what they're saying is, hey, company, you're stupid. We could take prices up and it wouldn't hurt demand.

And it never works out that way. It usually suppresses demand and revenues in a much greater volume or amount than the increase in revenues. It makes us less competitive, it makes us less productive, and it increases costs. If you're looking for an elegant way to increase consumer costs while reducing productivity

and demand across our products in foreign markets, congratulations, this is supersizing Brexit. This is the most elegant, efficient way to reduce American prosperity. It makes absolutely, no sense. Sorry, here's a period. Boom, boom, Professor Galloway gives you his lecture in class in economics.

Even worse than this? Even worse than this? Even worse than the tariffs. If he said, all right, I'm putting a 10% tariff on everything from China, American companies could go, okay, this is stupid, whatever, but he gets to make this decision. But they could plan. They could say, okay, the cost of our shoes and our cars is about to go up 12 or 15%.

We estimate that demand will fall by this and we can adjust and plan for this. But here's what's even worse than these ridiculously stupid tariffs is the uncertainty means that foreign and domestic suppliers can't plan their goddamn business. When we were at South by Southwest, a lot of the digital media companies who were off to a great start of the year, right? The lack of uncertainty because, okay, we know Trump's in office. We sort of know, we think we sort of know what to expect.

Let's get back to business and start spending money. The 2025 started great for digital media companies dependent upon consumer advertising. And now their quarter has been blown because some of the biggest advertisers in America, including automobile companies, have all said the following. We have no fucking idea what's going on,

so we're doing nothing. They have told their media planners, until there's more clarity, stop spending money. And the lack of certainty, the lack of consistency as a trading partner means every large organization and company in the world is trying to reconfigure their supply chain to be less dependent upon America, which means less money for America. The terrorists are bad, the uncertainty is even worse. Oh, wow.

That was a lecture. I just felt like I was macroeconomics back in college right now. That was a macroeconomics professor. Thank you, Professor Galloway, for that cogent analysis. It sucks is what I would say. Now come by my office hours and I'll help you on the hard parts. Oh, no, no, don't do that. Don't do that.

Don't do that. That's wrong. That's wrong. Listen, I will give a much shorter thing. I was on the Amtrak train when the people were coming back from the business roundtable to New York, and all of them were insulting Trump. Every one of them, even if they don't speak out, they all said, what a fucking idiot, this uncertainty sucks.

And they were all insulting it and saying, what do we do now? Second, because they talked too loud on an Amtrak train, all these men, they were all men and one woman. And then secondly, a CEO of a very big public company that is going to be affected by tariffs, and I'm not going to say what it is, I said, what are you going to do now? What are you going to do now? And he said, pass it on to consumers. And I was like, thought so, right? And so it is going to hurt his business. He was like, I'm going to have to pass it on to consumers. And I was like, thought so, right? And so it is going to hurt his business. He was like, I'm going to have to pass it on to consumers. There's no other

way. And it's going to affect his business across the globe, absolutely. And it was like, this is, we don't know what to do, so we're going to do it. It's going to affect everyone, along with the cuts in government, the sort of non-skelpel-like cuts in government, which would hearten people, the across-the-board cuts where you don't know where it's going to happen with crazy Elon with a chainsaw, same thing. Nobody knows because there's, you know, it's interesting because the Department of Education cuts, everyone's like, oh, it's not useful.

They mostly have privatized much of their research and studies and stuff that's actually somewhat useful to know if things work or not, different testing and things like that. That's all been privatized, so that's going to have second and third order effects, and mostly across the country, not in Washington. And so, although Washington is also going to be affected, so the effects are everywhere. And so that's why there's been a lot of talk of recession lately, which I call a Trump session. I'm going to keep saying that word until it catches on, like Bidenomics. Though Trump is dancing around that language.

Let's listen to what he told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo earlier this week. By the way, Carys Whisher is not a fan of Maria Bartiromo when asked about the possibility of a recession. I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. And there are always periods of it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us. This issue has been a real hair up his ass, the idea that tariffs will work. He's way back in the smooth holly days. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had a different take on tariffs and recession

in an interview with CBS News. Let's listen. These policies are the most important thing America has ever had. So it is worth it. It is worth it. A, I don't think the only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with. These policies produce revenues.

So you're saying when it looks chaotic and unpredictable from the outside that there actually is a master plan when it comes to these tariffs? It is not chaotic. And the only one who thinks it's chaotic is someone who's being silly. Oh my god, he's such a clown. The most important thing in American history, so our decision to, at huge cost, risk to our young men,

risk to our economy, turning washing machine factories into tank factories overnight, we decided for the second time to enter into World War II and push back on fascism. We decided that this incredible prosperity and rights should be extended to not civil rights. I'm sorry, but these fucking tariffs are the most important thing America's ever done.

I know. I mean, you just lose so much credibility when you say that, and this is so chaotic. I don't even know the status of the tariffs right now, and I follow this shit. I now know why this guy is not respected on Wall Street when he opens his mouth. He's such a clown. He's a suck-up to Trump because he's finally relevant. He goes around talking about how he's best friends to Trump in Washington, all over the

place. He is the thirstiest public official I've ever seen, and it's because he's not beloved on Wall Street. And secondly, he's spewing nonsense, just nonsense out of his mouth. You know who's the big winner here is China. You know what China, China has literally deployed dozens if not hundreds of their diplomats to the biggest European and Latin American companies, and they've said the following, you may not love us, but you can count on us. We like trade, we like commerce, and we do what we say, and you know what you're dealing with with us.

You've been buying all these produce or products or finished products or whatever it might be from the US. You have no idea how to plan and what to expect from these folks. You can count on us. This is the deal. We are open for business. We love commerce. We are a dependable, consistent partner.

Or even not China. Canada's going to do more business with... This is literally a gift to every major economic power that would had to compete against America. What they're saying is America is not competitive because you can't believe what they say. And the biggest, the greatest level of damage here isn't even going to show up in the short run. Goldman Sachs already took their GDP prediction from 25 down from 2.4 to 1.7. It'll be the long-term impacts of when people reconfigure their supply chain and their relationships, they're gonna be somewhat,

like, remiss to reengage again. This is gonna be a structural step down in our credibility across our largest trading partners. And trade, no doubt, if you don't think about who gets really hurt, you can end up with, you know, a really difficult situation. And that's where America, America has been really good on trade,

where we're bad is helping out and showing empathy for the people who get quite frankly, who are on the wrong end of that. But on the whole, prosperity just grows. We just continue to see that economically over time. And people, when they stop buying our products, not because they might, they might be the most competitive in a year,

but they're like, we don't know what's gonna happen in the next year or two years. So do you think a recession's likely at this point? Because again, with this fell in charge, I mean, I'm thinking Gina Raimondo is so smart and this guy is so dumb, like actually dumb. Like I think he, when macroeconomics was taking place, he was the one sleeping behind me, the dude

sleeping on the desk behind me. That's what it feels like. He's not paying attention to almost any obvious thing. And you're right, when we did some of these trade deals, we didn't think of the effects here enough and figured out how to retrain and get people into new jobs and things that were more competitive and figure out what advanced manufacturing we could do here with our population and etc., etc. This is an opportunity for China. And the second thing is people worried about their 401Ks and portfolios during this volatility.

Do you think there's going to be a recession, very briefly, and then what would you say to people with the stock market? Warren Buffett looks like a genius. Taras Suk, I'm in cash. Buffett looks like a genius. Tariffs suck. I'm in cash. Look who looks like he is the goat. He should be president, but anyway. Economists, and I don't consider myself like an economist, but quote unquote academics

have predicted nine of the last three recessions. It's very hard to tell because you could have AI finally get real traction in the economy and massively increase productivity, which results in economic growth that overcompensates for these ridiculous tariffs. And we have a tendency to sometimes overestimate the power of the president and his policies on this unbelievable engine called the American economy that usually over the medium and long term sort of figures out a way. So I think it's dangerous to predict a recession. What was your second question, Kara? What would you do if you're in the stock market,

just leading the market? Do I guess just the stock? The only thing I would consider is the following. And that is, this stat just blew my mind. If you add in corporate debt, so people have heard that the market capitalization of US stocks now represents 50% of total equity value globally, which is extraordinary. But if you add in corporate debt, because the enterprise value of a company is its market

cap, say 100 million, plus if it has 50 million in debt, the market is saying that this company is worth $150 million because we're giving it $100 million in equity value despite the fact that it also owes 50 million. We're saying it's worth 150 million. If you add in all corporate debt and the world is worth $100, America costs 70 right now, and the rest of the world, sans the US, costs 30. So if someone said to you, Kara Swisher,

you can either buy America for $70, or the rest of the world for 30. You'd buy the rest of the world. Which you'd buy the rest of the world. And so what I'm doing is the following. First off, I think you're always invested in the markets. Don't try and time them. You are not Warren Buffett.

And when people predict a recession, oftentimes the market goes up 20 or 30%. And also you have to take into account whether you're going to trigger a taxable gain on your taxable event, on your income gains. What I would suggest, and this is not financial advice, but what I am doing, 70 versus 30, I am pulling money out of the US and I'm putting into low cost diversified index funds and non-US markets. Because while index funds will diversify you, if you're just in an S&P or NASDAQ index fund, you're actually not that diversified because typically when the markets get this expensive in America, for the next five or 10 years, you have 0% returns.

European stocks haven't been this cheap in a long time. American stocks haven't been this expensive in a long time. So what I would say is one, I don't think you should go to cash. I just don't think you can time the markets. But what I would suggest is thinking about diversifying across geographies, not just asset classes. Yeah. Excellent. Excellent advice. Professor G asset classes. Yeah, excellent, excellent advice. Professor Galloway, this was a very professorial. I used to fall asleep in Macrock and I was like this, I was like this. Is that meth I did this morning?

I used to do that, it was at 8, 10 in the morning. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. We'll be back to chat about Trump and Elon Hawking Tesla's at the White House. about Trump and Elon hawking Teslas at the White House. Support for Pivot comes from Brex. This goes out to all you finance folks. There's a lot of pressure these days to save money, and that's important. But the best finance leaders focus on more than that.

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Whatever your style, buy yours at crocs.com. Your Crocs, your story, your world. Scott, we're back with our second big story, the beautiful bromance of Ilana Trust continues. That's from our producers. The rest of us worry about dismantling of our government. President Trump is focused on a very important task promoting sales of Teslas. After posting on True Social Tuesday morning, he said he would buy a Tesla to support Musk. I bet he hasn't. Trump welcomed Elon and a fleet of Teslas to the White

House. The president had a cheat sheet of notes and kudos to that photographer who got that picture in his hands while praising the company. Let's listen to what he thought when he sat in one of the cars. And by the way, he hates EVs. He said he actually hates EVs. He doesn't drive, etc., etc. So this was why this was precious. This is a different panel than everything's computer. Oh my God. He hasn't ever been inside a car in like a long time. I mean, a car looks like that. Tesla stock is down 26% in the last month of time.

The taping, it had a bump from Trump, but most people are just, there were two analyst reports showing that Tesla's in real trouble, that are taking the stock price down quite considerably, although it's hard to bet against Tesla because of like stunts like this. Scott, did you know that there's a computer and a Tesla? Just what the fuck? What do you think of this stunt? Look, we have a bias, but this to me just seemed fucking ridiculous. That the President of the United States would decide to do an infomercial for one brand and not all other American. It's one thing if he and the Commerce Secretary were to

stand in front of a bunch of American-made EVs including Tesla. I think Biden screwed up not including Tesla in the EV summit. That was just punitive the other way. That was playing favorites the other way. But when you basically do one of these bad local, I'm crazy Bob, come down to Bob's Ford and Lincoln Mercury for a crazy deal.

No percent down, whatever, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I was joking that you can least own America for $285 million. It's just, this is stupid and goes back to the notion that this kind of shit should not be allowed. It reflects poorly on America, reflects poorly on Trump. And the thing I don't get about Musk, who obviously has such an unbelievable feel for business,

is that 75 percent of Republicans say they would never buy an EV. If he was just purely quote unquote, economically driven, which I think he is, I think he would have gone blue pill. Because the marketplace, I always use the example, we talked about this, when Nike went political, it was a smart move, because they tickled the sensors of the core market.

He's pissing off his core market. I just don't, I don't understand his end game here as Gavin Newsom. I think he's uninterested in Tesla. I think he's uninterested in Tesla anymore. I don't know what else, because they haven't innovated on the product. I know everybody sort of looks at the polarization that he's created, and he's repulsing his

customers and he's not going to attract the ones who like him now, right? They may like him, they're not going to buy his car. They might, I mean they might, I guess, but I doubt it. Sean Hannity supposedly bought one, whatever, and he's like, it goes fast. I was like, these are good cars. That said, you know what? I complained again to Darroch Osirashahi. I was like, I just ordered an Uber Black,

and a Tesla showed up, and they're still not luxury cars. Now I'm making the argument to him, it's not a luxury car, it's very tinny and a bumpy ride. And if I want it, a luxury car, send me an actual luxury car, it's very tinny and a bumpy ride. And if I want it, a luxury car, send me an actual luxury car if I'm paying for it. But that said, I think it was pathetic. But now interestingly, support doesn't do what Elon was hoping in the long term, which was at least stabilize Tesla shares, which are drifting down.

I suspect they're going to be drifting down again. It's not the only way the president is attempting to help him. Trump also said he would label attacks against Tesla dealerships, domestic terrorism. Nobody likes these attacks. These are stupid with people. They're allowed to protest, and the fact that he's calling, he's trying to sort of link regular protests with domestic terrorism is ridiculous, but attacking, you know, charger facilities, etc. is just violent is what it is.

It's not terrorism, it's just obnoxious and illegal and those should be arrested. And Elon Musk is paying back the favors. He reportedly plans to give $100 million to President Trump's political operation that Trump can control rather than Musk. During the election, Musk donated over $250 million to his pro-Trump super PAC that he controlled. He made up that $100 million in the rise in Tesla stock after Trump did this infomercial. But it feels so pay to play.

It's like so right in front of you. And I agree, Biden should have included a Tesla in that particular event at the White House. And, you know, someone was arguing that presidents always promote different American products, but not like this. This was like, it was, plus he didn't know how cars worked, which would even make him seem older and more like an old man in my, I think that also was weird. His discomfort inside of a car felt very, I don't know, it gave me like a Biden feel,

like a doddering old man kind of. And I think he is much more vibrant obviously in Biden. Any other thoughts about this money that's going back and forth between these two? There's, it really is. I mean, it's so passe, but money and politics and just what feels like a straight pay for play and all the incentives are. I mean, I've said this for a long time. The

thing that's always horrified me about our representatives and our Congress is not that they're whores, not that if you give them money, you get audience with them. I've known that for a long time. It's what incredibly cheap whores they are. Yeah, cheap whores. And that is, if you give 10 to 25 grand to every senator, I bet more than half would meet with you when you swung by Washington. And influence is a function of proximity and intimacy. You have audience with people who get to levy or are the arbiters of the largest person in history. So the incentives are, Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg,

look at these investments and go, this is the best investment in history. A million bucks for his inauguration campaign and he stops threatening to put me in jail or he's going to not try and break me up or he's going to tell the FTC or the DOJ, hands off Amazon or whoever. This is the best money spent. Unless you have systemic laws and regulation that says, no, we pass laws that affect all companies.

We're not allowed to play favorites. It's just a race to the bottom where everyone's like, all right, let's give them a giant medal and award and build a gold statue of them and give $10 million to his electoral campaign. And the problem is that favors the incumbents because they're the ones that have all the power.

And anybody who says, no, I'm standing up for American values, I'm not going to take this money, they're at a huge disadvantage. And we end up with a majority of our elected officials are willing to engage in this grift, in this trade. So. As far as you can see. You know, it's interesting because there is a point to be made that, you know, other politicians are getting paid under the table and this is explicit.

But it's gross no matter how it happens. And it doesn't look like it's about the products, right? It's not about what's best. It's who can pay me the most. And that, you know, that's the, we're not focused on making things that are good We're focused on who knows the money and that we all know that about American politics, but it's not Implicit or explicit it's grotesque is what it is. You know, who is just one exam? You know who's doing this right University of California. I

O that I owe California taxpayers a lot I've given some money to UCLA and to Berkeley and both the chancellors of UCLA and Berkeley called me and said, one, thank you and two, I just need you to know this. Your kid is less likely to get in now that you have given money. They are not only so like, you know, worried about conflicts of interest and abusing the public purse, that if you give over a certain amount of money to the University of California, the chancellor will call you and say,

just FYI, your kid is now less likely to get in because we have to be so careful about conflicts and not abusing the public trust. And quite frankly, I respect it. Yeah, you could call your kid swisher. You wanna change the kid's name to Swisher. Trust me, I'll call you. That's right, you went to a private school where you can still just,

you can do pay for play. Yeah, that's true. But that is how government, that is how you are supposed to respect the power of money you're given. This is when he favors industries, he's spending your money. He's abusing your tax dollars. Totally, I don't even know how much that cost. That probably cost like it's the amount of money

this guy just throws away of taxpayer money, like on golfing or his dumb military flights of immigrants that are overpriced and then does this. You know, it's just ridiculous. And you know, and the only person that benefited was Elon Musk with the stock going up. And then somewhere, somehow, there's money in Trump's pocket every time. I think this was bad for the brand.

I really do. I think it just, I think it looked desperate. Yeah, yeah. I would buy, now that you really don't want to own a Tesla. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content brought to you

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For a limited time, our audience gets $1,000 off Vanta at vanta.com slash vox. That's vanta.com slash vox for $1,000 off Vanta at vanta.com slash vox. That's vanta.com slash vox for $1,000 off. Okay, Scott, let's hear your prediction and just say you thought that they're going to break up. Do you still think that you said Doe's should be over and Elon would be gone? But let's let's hear your prediction first. Well, that is my prediction. And that is there's not going to be a breakup. I think that essentially people keep asking us,

as Anderson did last night, when does the relationship end? I don't think the relationship ends with a bang. I think he just sort of, I think Musk just fades to black. One, if the president is really serious about the cabinet secretaries now get to make the final decision and Musk is just an advisor to them, that means nothing is going to happen because these cabinet secretaries have a very difficult job. They need all of their staff. The savings are minimal in comparison to, for example, the increase in the deficits

from the planned tax cuts. So if Elon Musk comes back, he's not going to come back with a thoughtful, you could probably cut a thousand of the 4,500 people from the Department of Education who have overseen national mandatory testing which most people think has not worked. Right intentions has not worked. If he came back with thoughtful recommendations, the Department of Education might say,

okay, that might make sense. But he's not there to look at fraud and waste, which by the way, we've got a clean bill of health on so far because I can't find as much as everyone had anticipated. But also these are not, this isn't about an audit, this isn't about efficiency, these are political actions. When you cut off all USAID, it's a political action, and political actions are supposed to be left

to our elected representatives representing the people. So if it was in fact about efficiency, fine. But what he said is, if he in fact is honest about now, he's just an advisor, he's gonna have no power, nothing's gonna happen. And in addition, he is now probably doing the math and going, I miscalculated. There are not only his Tesla sales being hammered,

but what he's really scared of has happened. And that is the virus here has jumped the lab to Starlink. And that is a lot of big customers are now rethinking their Starlink relationship. So what initially was very accretive to his personal wealth has returned. He's lost all that money and the momentum is downward. So I think he's basically going to pull of the vek and just slowly fade away out of.

And I think Doge is going to die a quiet death because he has it. It looks as if his power has been emasculated and two, he's just losing so much money right now because of the negative brand halo. Well, guess what country has alternatives, China. And Jeff Bezos is working on things. There's so, to Starlink, Starlink is dominant at this point, but, and he keeps saying there's no other alternative.

He said that about Tesla. There's other alternatives. There's going to be other alternatives. And then he is up the creek without that proverbial paddle. You're right. I agree with you. Interesting prediction. We'll see.

There is a staying power. There's a weird relationship happening between these two, though. That he stays there, that he's at the White House, the kid's around. There's something much different here, but I would agree. He almost teared up when he was talking about the money he was losing. Even the world's richest man doesn't like to lose tens of billions of dollars on any one day. So, Carrie, you know what stock is up?

The Starlink competitor in Europe, Utelstat, has quadrupled in the last 30 days as these small inferior product competitors are now viable again because they have an enormous increase in interest from nations and companies that don't want to work with Starlink. That stock is gone from a month ago it was trading at a buck 20. By Europe, that's the Scott Galloway message. Today it opened at $6.82. Yeah. So you're about to see a massive amount of capital. I mean this is so bad for Starlink. You're about to see a massive amount of capital go into other satellite and communications providers that, quite frankly, weren't as competitive.

They weren't as good as Starlink. No, Starlink's a superior product. And by the way, Tesla was a superior product, but he never, he hasn't improved it. And again, as I say over and over again, a lot of people are banning Tesla because they're repulsed by Elon Musk, but they have not innovated their product.

If you have a great product, and in this case, it's the repulsiveness and the danger if you go with him in this case, and that's why Europe is going to abandon him. And so is Canada, as Canada has, it's not just that. And there's plenty of, there's going to be plenty of competitors in the Starlink business very soon. Anyways, there won't be a press announcement,

but watch, in 30 or 60 days, Doja is gonna be surprisingly like not in the news. Okay, all right, we'll see. I'd be interested, that would be great. And then they can go to Mars and it'll be great for them to do that. We wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech

or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Scott, that is the show. Are you, you're going, when are you going back to London soon at some point? I'm going away for the weekend and then I go back to London on Sunday.

How about you? What are you up to? Oh, you know, I'm going, I'm going to, I'm moving my mom to Washington as I told you, when picking her up tonight. Yes. And then I will be in DC, but then I'm actually going on a little vacation myself. Where are you going? Three, Puerto Rico, with three of my four children.

We're going and we're going to have a little LUK time and be in Puerto Rico, which should be a state as far as I'm concerned. I'm excited. Amanda loves it. And so we're going to go there. I've never been to Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico. It'm excited. Amanda loves it. And so we're going to go there. I'm kind of doing it. I've never been to Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico. It's beautiful. It's a beautiful place.

It's a really nice place and it's in these United States. And people should go there. People should go to all the places that we're sort of hit by hurricanes too. I like going to places that are in the United States and also deserving of our attention. Anyway, I'm not a big vacationer, so I'm excited to- I'm going. The new tariffs and champagne, I feel bad I'm going to spend my time in St. Barts just to be a good citizen. Yeah. Okay. All right. All right, Scott, that's the show.

We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Read us out. Today's show is produced by Larry Naman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and Todd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Mia Severio, and Dan Shulon. us out. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a great time moving. Lucky. Listen, we all love a good hustle. We all love a rise and grind mentality, but let's be real. You could do all that and still be super comfy, right?

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