Pivot - The end of the Bezos era, SpaceX for civilians, and a stock prediction

Episode Date: February 5, 2021

Kara and Scott talk about Jeff Bezos stepping away from his role as CEO of Amazon and moving into the Executive Chair position. They talk about Elon Musks' plans to send a civilian crew to space by th...e end of the year in hopes of ushering in a new era of space travel. In listener mail, a young Facebook employee asks if the company has any redeeming qualities. And Scott has more predictions on GameStop stock. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond and see for yourself how traveling for takes forever to build a campaign. Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you,
Starting point is 00:00:50 tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Starting point is 00:01:14 And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, what's going on today? Do you hear the CEO of Parler, John Matz, got fired? So are you wearing his ears around your neck like some warrior who's killed people? You know, I didn't kill him. I just showed he had bad judgment. A little bit. A little bit.
Starting point is 00:01:34 It started the ball rolling. For sure, I kicked the ball, and it moved it down the hill. That is for sure. I think he then made a lot of moves afterwards. First of all, it was bad judgment. He really had a lot of bad judgment in that interview and said things on literally the wrong time, like read the room that's being attacked at the Capitol, essentially. And then I think he continued to do bad interviews. He sued Amazon, which he never was going to win, you know,
Starting point is 00:01:59 for not hosting Parler. Antitrust, yeah. Antitrust. The whole thing, every behavior he had afterwards, what he's now saying is because he wanted to moderate the platform and Rebecca Mercer, who's an easy target as a villain, and I suspect she's a villain almost all the time, pretty much all the time. I think that he's using her as the excuse, but I think some of his management techniques were not very smart in general.
Starting point is 00:02:25 I know nothing about this story because I don't know, well, you can't because it's your job, but I have purposefully avoided all news about our former president, about my pillow guy. I don't, I used to watch Fox occasionally just to kind of understand the viewpoint. I don't care about follow-up. And you know what? I find that I won't say I'm mentally healthy, but I'm less mentally fucked up. Yeah. I really think there is a big sigh of relief. Yes, there is. And a giant walk outside the last few weeks just trying to avoid all this shit, all the crazy.
Starting point is 00:02:56 I don't even want to hear about this congresswoman from Georgia. I'm just like, okay. Okay, fine. Let me give you the short version. We know they're crazy. They didn't discipline her, and now the Democrats are going to. I mean, they didn't discipline her. Then again, they didn't kick out Liz Cheney for doing her job, which was interesting.
Starting point is 00:03:14 Yeah, it's interesting. The whole thing is sort of kabuki, and they need to focus on stimulus. So does Parler, but from your viewpoint, does Parler have a role? Is Parler going to be, are the backers of Parler going to make money? Is Parler a phenomena? No, I think it's gone. I think it's not up. They have to build, they've got to build it back up.
Starting point is 00:03:32 They missed their, their big opportunity was after Trump got kicked off of Twitter. And now that's passed. You know what I mean? Like, I don't think it's going to, people are going to be rushing to it. They've gone to Telegram. They've already made their, you know, the crazies have already made their choice. And it's not going to be Parler anymore. And so I think it's finished.
Starting point is 00:03:48 A lot of people on, I don't know if it's the same thing, it's a messaging app. I'm getting a lot of people saying, hit me up on Signal. Signal, yeah, Signal or Telegram. Those are two encrypted messaging apps. And one has more, I forget which one, I think it's Signal, has more ability to have groups and things like that. For the real right-wingers, there's MeWe. I think it's called MeWe.
Starting point is 00:04:08 Another one's called, I'm blanking. Anyway, there's a whole bunch of them they can go to. But it's not as good as a public forum, and it's not as good as Facebook. And so, you know, that's where they really organized. It was on Facebook and essentially Parler and some other places that were just out in the open. So we'll see. Anyway, he's gone. We'll see what his story is. See if he'll throw Rebecca Mercer under the bus.
Starting point is 00:04:28 But she's always sort of in the shadows of all these really unpleasant things that have to do with our democracy. So perhaps he will have some things to say about her that will give us more illumination. Under Acting Chair Jessica Rosenworcel, the FCC is expanding the broadband services discount program to cover remote schooling, which is exciting. It's a new FCC.
Starting point is 00:04:52 Jessica's really an interesting chair, and I hope she gets the job itself. She was sort of polar opposite to Ajit Pai. So that's super interesting, what's happening there. And we'll see what we're going to get from the FCC. The FCC's been kind of quieter in the Trump administration and not done as much. What are you thinking of this week?
Starting point is 00:05:18 So you mean the plan to try and give broadband to everybody? Yeah. Look, the economists did a study, and as broadband increases in a nation, it's correlated to GDP growth. Indeed. Broadband has become one of those things, again, we like to think the government's bad at everything. No, government is really good at defending our shores. They're really good at making sure that seniors don't end up homeless. They're really good at ensuring, I should say, they're really good most of the time at ensuring we have clean, safe drinking water. And broadband, they're great at the essentials and they're great at things that require a
Starting point is 00:05:55 forward-leaning investment. If they can do it, but not here they haven't been. Here they haven't been at all. Well, but that's what I'm saying. I think it's the opportunity. Well, except it's been going on. I mean, Scott, years ago, Walt and I interviewed then, I can't even remember who the FCC chairman was at the time. And we put up a chart right before we interviewed him that showed the U.S. was the most expensive broadband in the world. And, like, I think we were behind Latvia down at, like, 17 or some number that was really an embarrassment. that was really an embarrassment. Well, essentially, we've let companies come in that are very deft and have a lot of lobbyists figure out a way to segment the market and create semi-regulated monopolies,
Starting point is 00:06:32 which are a transfer of wealth from our citizens to these companies. And while big tech are unregulated monopolies, that's even worse. What I'm basically advocating is that if you were to – South Korea, basically a strategy nationally for their nation in terms of competitive advantage relative to their peer group, is they decided, I think 30 years ago, they were going to flood the nation in bandwidth. And a government-supported initiative. What I'm saying here is just as like – I love infrastructure. I would love to see nothing more, and I'm so angry. Would you like to lead infrastructure week for Pete Buttigieg?
Starting point is 00:07:05 Well, you know, infrastructure is really fascinating. If you think about our airways, the invisible infrastructure of our airways and how the air traffic control turns airspace into this unbelievable asset for all of us. And it was the same thing is true of broadband. But I find it just so disheartening to think that, okay, we spent $5 trillion to mostly keep the rich rich with these bailouts, and we could have done something. We could have had literally high-speed rail across the entire nation three times over. We could have done something like this and ensured that every household in America had lightning-fast broadband. Anyways, I like big infrastructure. If our priorities are fucked up is what is gone.
Starting point is 00:07:46 This is something I've talked about for years and years and years. It's literally like saying to people during the time we put telephones everywhere, which is critically important. Hey, everybody, here's a can and a string. Good luck. Like, we would never have done this. These are the kind of things. And especially now with this remote schooling, like, it should be priority number one for everybody, by the way, remote schooling for the ability to reach schools.
Starting point is 00:08:09 It's just ridiculous. It's your ability to learn. It's your ability to step on news. It's your ability to form, even now, relationships. It's your ability to communicate with your, I mean, there's just, show me a family that has broadband, low broadband that's interrupted because of economic strain or for whatever reasons. And I'm going to show you a family that the kids start to fall behind.
Starting point is 00:08:29 Yep, yep. So this is, I mean, this is a great moment. Let's say, all right, let's, crisis is a terrible thing to waste. We have an opportunity to look at this and say, all right, what do we leave behind? Do we leave behind emissions? Do we leave behind forcing workers to commute
Starting point is 00:08:47 if they can be home two or three days? What do we leave behind? And one of the things we could leave behind is the notion that the private sector is the best way to solve every problem. Yeah, this should be, if I read one more story of poor kids doing their homework from Taco Bell,
Starting point is 00:09:02 I'm going to just really lose my mind. We're going to have Jessica Rosenworcel on the show. That's my new decision. Well, it reminds me of those pictures of Africa. I'm making an executive decision here. Go ahead. Have you seen these pictures of Africa? Paul Romer, a colleague at Stern and a Nobel Prize winner who talks about growth. His Nobel Prize was around growth. And he had this really moving photo that he always uses of kids studying under parking lot light.
Starting point is 00:09:27 I've seen that picture. Yeah. And that's where we're headed. Ridiculous. That's where we're going. We are going to have Jessica Rosenworcel here, and she's going to tell us about this. And by the way, it shouldn't be a discount program. It should be free. Thank you very much. That's my platform. That's what I'm running on. It's a good ROI.
Starting point is 00:09:43 So let's get to the big story. Speaking of people who are taking charge of rather big places and someone who could probably provide us with bandwidth easily like tomorrow, this is a big story. The end of an era, Jeff Bezos is stepping down as CEO of Amazon. He's going to stay executive chairman. In Amazon's quarterly earnings call this week, Bezos announced that 27 years after founding Amazon, he'd be stepping aside as CEO and moving on to the executive chairman role, which is a very active role. Let's be clear, he's not going anywhere. Andy Jassy will be the new CEO of Amazon. He previously was head of AWS, Amazon's very successful cloud computing business, which represents 62% of its profits and 12% of its
Starting point is 00:10:24 business. So, very successful group over there that Andy runs. The transition will officially take place in the third quarter of this year, which starts in July. So, Andy Jassy, here he is. Now, we're going to get to the other things that happened at Amazon. Meanwhile, the same day, the Federal Trade Commission, they sort of knocked this story off the blocks, announced that sanctions against Amazon will pay $61.7 million
Starting point is 00:10:47 to settle allegations that the company cheated gig drivers out of tip money. This is a story that happens all over the delivery space. It's not new to Amazon. Yeah, all of them. What is wrong with them? In 2015, Amazon advertised a program that called Flex that would pay drivers up to $25
Starting point is 00:11:03 an hour to make deliveries that they could receive 100% of any tips. But in late 2016, Amazon secretly reduced its own contribution to driver's pay, according to the FCC. Anyway, they paid the money. It's not a huge amount of money, but it's not nice. It's not nice. In any case, Andy Jasset was not responsible for that. But he's going to now be the CEO. I know him quite well.
Starting point is 00:11:23 He's an interesting character. And now be the CEO. I know him quite well. He's an interesting character. So before we even get to that, though, I do think it warrants a moment of recognition that Jeff Bezos, his career. Yeah. Look, no one man in history has taken a company from zero to $1.7 trillion. No one person has established a recurring revenue relationship with 82% of households.
Starting point is 00:11:50 No one person has had a company hire a half a million people in one year. No one person has revolutionized e-commerce, revolutionized cloud, revolutionized voice. This is, as he stands here today, and there is a dignity and discipline to leaving the stage while people are clapping, he goes out or leaves the CEO role as the bluest, you know,
Starting point is 00:12:11 the bluest flame thinker in the history of business. And also, I have been very critical. I don't think they can equip themselves well, gamifying the Commonwealth, some of the things you just read about. But the reality is, you know, I've owned stock in Amazon since 2007. They're the largest recruiter of young men and women out of my class. It's given them an enormous, a wonderful start to building economic security. You know, you got to, you just got to recognize what he has done. It is just staggering what he has accomplished now. Now the most exciting thing, the most exciting thing, and there's an analogy here or a metaphor or a correlation, whatever it is, a reference to Bill
Starting point is 00:12:50 Gates. Bill Gates, when he retired, was not that well-liked. People saw him as someone who really threw around his elbows in business. Up until the point he retired, he was not very philanthropic. The last 25 years for Jeff Bezos have been meaningful for our society, but the next 25 years could be profound. We'll see. If he were to put those resources and that brain to work on some really big problems, you know, he could have an incredibly profound impact
Starting point is 00:13:17 over the next quarter century. If only someone actually knew him back then in the early days and knows Andy Jassy well and could comment on it, I wonder who that person is, me. So please comment. Okay. I like your thoughts. You know, he has had a very, you know, he was a very interesting guy. He again started off later in his life. He was not young. It was very pleasant to talk to him because he wasn't a 12-year-old when I was covering early Amazon. Very enthusiastic, super friendly to the press until he wasn't. And someone who
Starting point is 00:13:47 really did have a vision that was very clear, a very data-driven vision and enthusiasm for what he was doing. And a tough, tough guy. I mean, a lot of people think of him as sort of this laughing, you know, guffaw guy, but he's really a tough customer. And in terms of, we've had a lot of tangles over the years, causing us not to talk for a while over something that he thought he was right on and was very clear. And so he's a really interesting character, but I definitely think his ideas, someone was arguing with me on Twitter the other day whether he was a visionary,
Starting point is 00:14:18 because I said in a column I wrote in the Times that he was. I compared him positively with Jobs and Musk, and I said, except he's sort of meaner, you know what I mean, or more obstreperous and more aggressive than those two alpha dogs. And Tim was like, no, he's not. I was like, he's 100% visionary. What he did and continued to be innovative at Amazon
Starting point is 00:14:39 compared to any other CEO. Mark Zuckerberg borrows things. Gates borrows things. Like, you know what I mean? You know, it's the boring stuff that was so impressive. He Zuckerberg borrows things. Gates borrows things. Like, you know what I mean? You know, it's the boring stuff that was so impressive. He did a couple of things. He decided fulfillment used to be something,
Starting point is 00:14:52 William Sonoma was a cost center and it took them two weeks to get your Calphalon when you ordered it online. And he said, if we can get people things, if we can move people to things and decrease the delta in the reward of immediacy,
Starting point is 00:15:04 it's going to revolutionize retail. And it's super boring. And he spent hundreds of billions of dollars on it. No one wanted to spend hundreds of millions on it, but that was just a unique way to look at things. And the other thing that people don't talk enough about that's just such the jujitsu move of the ages, he took their biggest cost centers, fulfillment, processing power, bandwidth. He took their biggest cost centers and turned them into enormous profit centers in the form of businesses they sold to other businesses. No one's been able to look at their expense line and say, okay, we're going to take our biggest expenses and figure out how to make them not only lower and smarter, but how
Starting point is 00:15:41 to start selling them to other places. And by the way, the most valuable company in the world isn't Amazon, it's AWS. And with the appointment of Jassy, basically Amazon is now a cloud company. One of the things I've been thinking through second order effects, I thought they would spin AWS because Jassy, any guy like Jassy wakes up in the morning and looks in the mirror and says, hello, Mr. CEO. No, he does not. You're wrong. Once again, because you don't actually know him. Do you know him? Do I know Andy Jassy and you don't? I've interviewed him a hundred times. Oh, you think he does. I just want to be number two the rest of my life.
Starting point is 00:16:09 No, I don't think so. I think he's a very different kind of character. He's much more like Satya Nadella. He's a very good leader. He was Jeff's technical chief of staff. I remember when he got there, actually, at Amazon. He was at Harvard Business School. And actually, what was really astonishing is Jeff, in 2003,
Starting point is 00:16:32 let him do this Skunk Works, which became AWS, you know, just go off and do it. And they opened it in, I think, 2006. And so, I think he's quite entrepreneurial. He's a very entrepreneurial guy. And he also likes being Jeff Bezos' number two. He does. He's like Jeff in a lot of ways. Nicer. Much nicer in a lot of ways. Nicer, much nicer in a lot of ways. He's different in personality in some ways. But he loved having this in him. And I interviewed him last year, if you remember, at Code. He was like, you would disagree with you.
Starting point is 00:17:01 I thought he was telling the truth. That he would do it if the government made him, but he doesn't see any reason to do it. You mean a spin of AWS. Yes. He said he'd do it if he was forced to, and the government should tell him. Same thing around facial recognition. If they want this, he's not going to be the moral arbiter.
Starting point is 00:17:18 If they want it regulated, they should regulate it. But he did not want to spin it off. I've asked him dozens and dozens of times over the years. So the likelihood that it happens now just went down because now Andy is no longer the king of the North. He sits on the iron throne of Westeros. And all of a sudden, he's going to want to keep the companies together. And I did CNN yesterday and the FT. Like, why now? Why did he step down?
Starting point is 00:17:40 I'm like, wouldn't you? Yeah. He wants to—Jeff Bezos has rung every bell. And he wants to spend 2021, he wants to spend more time at the Cannes Film Festival and the Oscars and not in a Senate and not in a House subcommittee meeting. He didn't want to come back to Amazon. He had come back because of the pandemic. It's sort of signaled the pandemic's over. You know what I mean? Because he did come back. That's an interesting way to look at it. That's a very interesting way to look at it. He had to come back to do that.
Starting point is 00:18:06 And, of course, other people retired. Jeff Wilkie, who is the other contender for this job, which I never thought was going to get it. I always thought it was Andy, was retired earlier. And so I think he was like, Jeff does not want to spend one minute of the day doing anything Jeff Bezos doesn't want to do. And he didn't like any of the political stuff. We talked about broadband being correlated to GDP growth. Wealth is correlated to no. Wealth is the ability to say no. And there's a lot of things in his life as the CEO of a company that quite frankly is a monopoly that people feel has grown too powerful that he can't say no to.
Starting point is 00:18:46 When he gets called and hauled in front of his house subcommittee and they start asking questions and he has to spend probably days with lawyers prepping for this thing and then have Jim Jordan ask him questions, Representative Jordan. So not being CEO, it reattaches him to his ability. Being the wealthiest man in the world means he is the king or queen of no.
Starting point is 00:19:09 And he reattaches to that. He can say, just do whatever he wants. Andy does take the temperature down. Jeff is a lightning rod for people. You know, he's a character. I think Andy, he'll be like Tim Cook. Like, you know how Tim didn't get that many questions? Andy's the same way.
Starting point is 00:19:24 He sort of absorbs. Like he's not. He seems very likable. He seems like. He's very likable. I describe him as Midwestern and I have no idea where he's from. No, he's from Scarsdale.
Starting point is 00:19:32 There you go. He looks like he's from. He grew up. He acts like he's from Wisconsin. He grew up. He seems like good people. He's like a, you know, upper middle class kid from Scarsdale.
Starting point is 00:19:42 But, but his, it'll be interesting because he'll absorb that. He'll be able. And I, you know, I middle class kid from Scarsdale. But it'll be interesting because he'll absorb that. And I think Jeff will actually take, in the executive chair, will be sort of the ambassador for that because people always want to meet him and stuff. And I think he's, a lot of people in the Biden administration said they've started to really,
Starting point is 00:19:58 Amazon started to reach out to see how they can help. They didn't want to help the Trump administration. And of course the Trump administration didn't want to be helped by Jeff Bezos. And so that's that weird obsession that Trump had with Bezos is gone. And so Amazon's trying to make their way into doing helpful things with their logistics around the vaccine. And I've just heard that from various Biden people. And so that should be interesting. Then they have to do that because Andy faces a lot of stuff around not just this Federal Trade Commission thing,
Starting point is 00:20:27 which was many years ago and shitty what they did, but also antitrust issues, issues around the unions. Amazon's been extraordinarily tough on union organization. Stuff around workers and the marketplace issue. There's a lot that he's going to have to deal with from a regulatory point of view. So I'll be interested in who they, I don't even know who they have in Washington, but what they do here.
Starting point is 00:20:50 I suspect Jeff will be here more. They'll bring him out for the star power that he has always had. And I think he'll be a little more active in politics than you realize. And he has this big house here in Washington. So he may do the charm offensive while Andy deals with it, with a lot of it. But it'll be interesting who they get to run all the retail stuff. They've got a huge bench all over the place at this company. Not many people leave, which is the other issue is diversity. This is not, these people have been in these jobs. Andy started when he was a kid. All the executives started when they were kids.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Okay. So this is a huge, this is a huge point. And it's another one of the kind of boring PSA or cholesterol testing that indicates the kind of underlying health of the organization. I read that the turnover at Snap and Twitter among senior management is around 25 or 30% a year. One in three leave. At Amazon, it's 2%. None. So they have done something where everyone, these are some of the most. It's culty. Well, it's not, okay, but that's looking at as the glass half empty. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:57 Okay, so the word culture comes from. Not culty. They like work. People with tremendous opportunities. I mean, these are people, obviously very talented people that a lot of companies, they receive a lot of calls from headhunters. And they all say, you know what? Looking at the people I work with, look at the opportunities, looking at the economic and psychic rewards, I'm going to stay at Amazon. I mean, that just says something about the company.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Well, Andy was in line for the Uber job. You know, he was thinking about his options. And I remember joking with him when I saw him. I was like, you missed that bullet. Like, you know what I mean? Like, seriously. He was in line for a lot of jobs. He was always, he really liked running AWS.
Starting point is 00:22:35 I'm going to, he really didn't want to spin it off and be his own CEO. So now he just waited. He's sort of like Iger, sort of waited in the wings for the big job. You know, how Eisner just drummed everybody else out of there. Well, he was Steve Young waiting for Joe Montana to retire. Yeah, just like that kind of thing.
Starting point is 00:22:51 I think it'll be an interesting... Sports analogy from the dog. First and last of the century. It's an interesting thing of how he wants to do it and how he wants to differentiate himself. I hope he does. I hope he has like a Tim Cook moment because Tim has certainly differentiated himself from Jobs.
Starting point is 00:23:04 And I'm going to leave the Bombers years out because we're just going to ignore them at Microsoft because I think that was just an extension of Gates and not very successful. You know what? A lot of people think Bomber didn't get the credit he deserved. Satya kind of came in and built. So during Bomber, they doubled revenue
Starting point is 00:23:21 and they quadrupled profits. Yeah, he missed some turns. Well, phones, mobile, social some turns. He missed some turns. Well, phones, mobile, social, search. He missed kind of the biggest movements in tech. Other than that, Kara. He literally, he was so weird. I told you that story.
Starting point is 00:23:34 We were at. Good dancer. Good dancer, that Steve Ballmer. I like Steve Ballmer now. I didn't before. He hated me for the longest time. But anyway. That's impossible to imagine.
Starting point is 00:23:43 That's impossible to imagine, Cara. He was, he and I had a test. But now we're like, he's like, he's doing all this cool stuff with his team and some political data stuff. I think he's become rather, I wouldn't say lovable. Everybody wants to be Mark Cuban. Everyone wants to be like the affable strategic
Starting point is 00:23:59 basketball-owning billionaire, Mark Cuban. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He told the GameStop, or he told the Wall Street Bets guys to hold the line. By the way, just young people who are day traders, when someone tells you to hold the line, that means you're about to get a spear in the chest. You and Mark Cuban have a lot in common. I literally have him talking about free the nipple. There's a whole section of his motto, free the nipple, and how to fix content moderation. I would think you and he would get along rather well.
Starting point is 00:24:27 I like Mark. I've met him at South by Side. I like him a lot. I know. Well, you should listen to it because there's a whole Scott Galloway moment where I had to shut him down.
Starting point is 00:24:32 He's got a really nice TikTok account with his daughter. I think he puts himself out there. I like it. Yeah, yeah. I had to shut him down. Likeable. You just shouldn't tell young men
Starting point is 00:24:40 to hold the line when he's already rich and they're not. In any case, Andy will be interesting. So you and I have both suggested this move for Mark Zuckerberg. I wanted Mark to step down. You wanted Mark to become executive chairman. I put someone like Brad Smith from Microsoft in place, someone who's believable as someone who's not going to screw everyone and will try to do something.
Starting point is 00:25:02 What do you think? Do you think Mark is now thinking, hmm, I don't want to go to Congress anymore and stare into the Klieg lights like I'm a deer kind of thing? What do you think? I don't think. I think Mark is so, and generally speaking, I think the people in big tech are generally speaking good people
Starting point is 00:25:18 who incrementally get tempted and get so sick of getting talked to and scolded all the time that they get on their heels and they don't, they have trouble seeing their company. Look, when it's raining money, it blows your vision. But I don't want to say I forgive them. I think generally speaking, they're good people, except I think Mark Zuckerberg is a strange person. And I think he demonstrates the behavior of a sociopath. Oh, good God. And that's a—I'm the victim, totally detached from the harm, constant returning everything to this. Well, and an ability to lie. I think he's shown a tremendous ability to say things that just aren't—
Starting point is 00:26:02 So he is not leaving, you're saying. He is sticking. Let me put it this way. He's holding, as they say.'re saying. He is sticking. Let me put it this way. He's holding, as they say. Holder. He is an exception. I can sort of relate to these other guys, just given their age and everything.
Starting point is 00:26:11 I have no idea what is running through that guy's brain. I have no, what do you think? I couldn't predict anything that Mark Zuckerberg would be planning to do. I think they're, both he and Cheryl are going to move along. Both of them? Mm-hmm. And you think they'll bring in someone from the outside to be, that would be, that would be the shareholder driven thing to do, to hit the reset button. Because Cheryl's not going to take over for him.
Starting point is 00:26:33 That's not going to happen now because they need to clear the whole thing out. And I think it's a perfect, the Bezos move gives them a little more permission to do this. gives them a little more permission to do this, I think that they will bring in a significantly, not better, but more, someone with a better reputation, CEO. And that's where they're going to go. I think that's what's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:26:58 I think that's what's going to happen. I think personally, I think the individual, and he's probably just having a great time, but I think, I really think there's a, the lesson here is that you want to leave a party 10 minutes early versus 10 minutes late. And if you're an NFL player, you can't do that because an NFL player- You only have certain time, right? An NFL player is making five to $8 million a year, I think is the average salary. And once they leave, it's very difficult to make that kind of money. So you sort of play it out until you get cut. But these guys have made so much money
Starting point is 00:27:26 and accomplished so much. I think there's a real, there's just, you want to leave the party 10 minutes early. I think Tim Cook, if I were Tim Cook, what does he have left to accomplish? Oh no, he's staying.
Starting point is 00:27:37 He's staying. I don't think he's going anywhere. I think he's, this is the job he's always wanted and think he'll play it out for another 10 years. Wow. Really? He loves what he does. The issue with, yeah, he does. I think Mark is the job he's always wanted and think he'll play it out for another 10 years. Wow. Really? He loves what he does.
Starting point is 00:27:46 The issue with, yeah, he does. I think Mark is young. That's the issue. Like, what does he look, even as rich as you are, and I know you and I would be perfectly fine with all the money and we'd fly all over and do crazy things, but this guy doesn't have anywhere else to go.
Starting point is 00:28:00 Like, he likes what he does too. And so he's young. And what does the rest of his life look like if he leaves Facebook? Yeah, but that's why, and I've said this before, he's the most dangerous person in the world. And we said, Trump will be with us for, the immunity's kicked in and he was voted out of office.
Starting point is 00:28:17 Biology will take care of Putin. But we have someone who controls the content of what one third of the globe absorbs and is comfortable giving them algorithms of amplification that divide their society. And he could be with us for another 50 years because of a dual-class shareholder system. I would suggest he takes the exit pod that has been offered him by this Jeff Bezos move. That's what I say. I would suggest he get in the exit pod and fly off and do something important for the world. That's what I would say. And then lecture us about whatever billionaire idea he has and put some money to it.
Starting point is 00:28:50 My sense is an outsider. Or be like Mackenzie Scott, Jeff's ex-wife, who just gives away money. She's a gangster. I love her. She's a gangster. She just said, the nation is hurting. I'm not going to. Here's some money.
Starting point is 00:29:01 No strings. I talked to two. I'm trying to get her to come on the podcast. I knew her. I used to know her well. But I haven't talked to. Here's some money. No strings. I talked to two. I'm trying to get her to come on the podcast. I knew her. I used to know her well. But I haven't talked to her in a long time. And everyone I talked to is like, we don't know how to reach them. They just handed us the check and said, good luck.
Starting point is 00:29:15 They didn't have any strings. She didn't want to have any press conferences. They don't even know who to call. They're like, we got a call. The check came. We cashed it. That was the whole encounter, essentially. Well, I told you my story.
Starting point is 00:29:26 I love it. I told you my story about McKenzie Scott, right? Who wants to be a millionaire? I was at DLD talking about Bezos. And a woman comes up to me and says, I think I can help you be more effective. And I'm like, well, that's passive aggressive. Right, okay.
Starting point is 00:29:39 And I said, sure. And she said, you need to give McKenzie Scott more responsibility for the role she played early on at Amazon. And I said, that's interesting she said, you need to give Mackenzie Scott more responsibility for the role she played early on at Amazon. And I said, that's interesting. Tell me more about it. And we started talking, really intelligent, interesting woman. And I'm like, what's your background? I was CTO of the U.S. government.
Starting point is 00:29:57 I'm like, were you married to Kara Swisher? Oh, yes. That was your ex-wife. And we sat there and laughed. And then we took a picture and said, it just makes sense that someone that used to mate who was your life partner would show up and give me shit. Oh, she's a nice lady. Listen, Mackenzie does deserve a lot more credit. I say that all the time.
Starting point is 00:30:20 I wrote a whole column about it. Literally tracked me down. Did she? Oh, my gosh. She tracks me down every day. Anyway, we're going to go to a quick break. Times a million, Scott. All right, Scott, let's go to a quick break. You're choosing your words very carefully. When we come back, Mark, take the exit pod. When we get back, we'll talk about
Starting point is 00:30:37 Bezos' nemesis, Elon Musk, and the happenings with Tesla and SpaceX. with Tesla and SpaceX. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting, crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night.
Starting point is 00:31:08 And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better.
Starting point is 00:31:43 One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other.
Starting point is 00:32:19 Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. You already know that AI is transforming the world around us, but lost in all the enthusiasm and excitement is a really important question. How can AI actually work for you? And where should you even start? Claude from Anthropic may be the answer.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Claude is a next-generation AI assistant built to help you work more efficiently without sacrificing safety or reliability. Anthropic's latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, can help you organize thoughts, solve tricky problems, analyze data, and more. Whether you're brainstorming alone or working on a team with thousands of people. All at a price that works for just about any use case. If you're trying to crack a problem involving advanced reasoning,
Starting point is 00:33:16 need to distill the essence of complex images or graphs, or generate heaps of secure code, Clawed is a great way to save time and money. Plus, you can rest assured knowing that Anthropic built Clawed with an emphasis on safety. The leadership team founded the company with a commitment to an ethical approach that puts humanity first. To learn more, visit anthropic.com slash clawed. That's anthropic.com. Okay, Scott, we're back.
Starting point is 00:33:53 Now, speaking of visionary founders, sort of the opposite. Jeff is his opposite. He's also, Jeff is going to do a lot of space stuff. He's going to move on to Blue Origin and build that city in the sky, etc. Let's do a check-in on a few Elon Musk-related stories. You know, he's just, he's removed himself from Twitter for a little while. I heard he's back. Is he back? I heard he took a whole 48 hours off of Twitter.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Now he's back. He's like you. He's like you, like a lot of people. You mean bad at Twitter? No, he's much better at Twitter. No, just like can't quit it. Anyway, SpaceX, Elon Musk SpaceX planning his first all-civilian crew to space at the end of the year. Big risk for him.
Starting point is 00:34:21 He's talked about this before. He said that this is an important milestone towards enabling access to space at the end of the year. Big risk for him. He's talked about this for you. He said that this is an important milestone towards enabling access to space for everyone, adding that it's part of SpaceX's broader goal to bring the cost down over time and make space accessible for all. As you know, he wants us to be a multi-planetary group of people here on the planet. On the other hand, this week, a test
Starting point is 00:34:38 flight of SpaceX's Starship, which is designed to fly to Mars in the future, crashed. But that's okay. SpaceX is an incredible success, I think, in many ways. It is incredible. Tesla recalls. This was one, again, a lot of companies have, let me just say, a lot of companies have recalls, a lot of car companies.
Starting point is 00:34:55 This week, Tesla recalled some of its cars, 130,000 vehicles. These cars had an issue with the touchscreen computer chips, and they can't fix it in the way they do, which is over the air. And the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration considers it a safety issue because drivers lose the display for the camera's backup camera. It's not the most serious problem, but it's a problem. Musk appeared on Monroe Live podcast and even agreed that it might be a good time to buy a Model S as they ramp up the design. Took a 14-second break from Twitter. It's really interesting.
Starting point is 00:35:26 And, of course, he was very involved in the GameStop run-up with GameStonks. So what do you think? What do you think? Well, anything. He's also the richest man in the world, unless Bezos is. They keep trading that slot. Yeah, that's incredible. Elon Musk has added the GDP of Hungary to his personal net worth since the pandemic broke out.
Starting point is 00:35:51 And I'm scared to say this because I was so wrong around Tesla, but I think there's a bubble inflating around what I'll call just space. And that is, it's exciting, but when you look at the different technologies where the hype was ahead of the reality, you think about 3D printing, or you think about wearables, I think that space is, I think it's a dangerous and expensive domain. And it's super exciting, SpaceX of all of them,
Starting point is 00:36:21 Boeing has tried to put people into space or have launch capabilities. SpaceX is executing like no one's business. I mean, they have their technology. They got people to the International Space Station faster than anybody else. It's an inspiring company. Blue Origin will be interesting. I think space travel might be one of those things that the government needs to be involved
Starting point is 00:36:43 in because I don't know if, at least in the short term, it's commercially viable. It is so expensive and so dangerous, quite frankly. So we'll see, but I don't- I think it's great. I think it's great. I think Bezos will be focused a lot on it. Well, a point I made around these two people is that what's really fascinating is the two richest people in the world, in this world, in history of the world, want to get off the planet. Consider it important that we get off the planet in some fashion.
Starting point is 00:37:08 And both are worried about these existential crises and climate change. I don't think they're going. I don't think that's it. I think they want to be explorers. No, I think Elon, that's how he's going to go. We'll never see him again. I think he's going to get on.
Starting point is 00:37:18 I don't know about Bezos, but I think Elon's getting to Mars. He's going to try to go to Mars. You know what? You know what? Life on Mars. He wants to go. Distinctive movies with Matt Damon. Do you know what life on Mars... He wants to go. Distinctive movies with Matt Damon.
Starting point is 00:37:27 Do you know what it's like on Mars? I know, but Elon wants to be king of Mars. It makes the top of Everest seem like the Caribbean and a nice place to live. I'm telling you, he wants to do it. I do not disbelieve him when he says it, I have to say. He's way too smart. He says a lot of crazy stuff, and I don't believe him.
Starting point is 00:37:42 He's way too smart to do that. I don't know. I think he's going to be... He would like to. Let. I don't know. I think he's going to be. He would like to. Let me just say he would like to. He's going to be like, Mars, St. Barts, SoCal, I'll go with St. Barts. That's not the kind of person he is. I'll go St. Barts.
Starting point is 00:37:54 No. That's you, Scott. You don't channel yourself. A hundred percent. That's you. I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with Tesla and others moving forward. But I think his heart is in SpaceXx and um and he is really interesting incredible company by the way in the private markets it's been increasing its valuation like 60 a year yeah and they keep executing
Starting point is 00:38:15 incredible technology defense they've been speaking of working with with the government they've been moved getting they grabbed that defense department contract which they had never moved into that gang of like speaking, speaking of real crooks. But the winner there is NASA and the Defense Department because of what they're doing. They're taking advantage of the cheap capital being afforded by the public market's excitement around space. And they're saying, okay, you build our capsule. Yeah. So there's a very good, there's a wonderful outcome of all the excitement around space.
Starting point is 00:38:43 And that is our government agencies are getting access to that cheap capital indirectly. Yep. It should be interesting. I think it's exciting. I don't know about off Twitter and his game. His game's something he just likes to wade into this stuff and be the golden god of Yeah, it was one word, but it sent the stock screaming, I think, about 60%. He loves ginning up all his base and stuff like that.
Starting point is 00:39:02 But, you know, there's something here to, it goes back, I've been obviously been thinking a lot about this, but you know that Professor Cipolla's quadrants where you have one access that is good for society, one that is good for yourself. Intelligent people do good things for society that are good for themselves.
Starting point is 00:39:19 Stupid people do things that are bad for themselves and bad for society. And then they call them the helpless or artists, people who do good things for society, but themselves and bad for society. And then they call them the helpless or artists, people who do good things for society, but it's bad for them. And then there's the bandits, people who do bad things for society, but good things for themselves.
Starting point is 00:39:34 You might say, okay, Mark Zuckerberg is a bandit. You could say Andy Jassy, if you wanted to be kind, or Tim Cook are the intelligent, good for the world, good for themselves. People would describe the mob that overran the Capitol as the stupid, bad for the world, good for themselves. People would describe the mob that overran the Capitol as the stupid, bad for themselves, and bad for society. And I feel like a lot of these billionaires who have been, and some Congress people, quite frankly,
Starting point is 00:39:54 ranging from AOC and Ted Cruz, who have been posing for the millennial cameras and saying that this movement is wonderful around the Wall Street, Wall Street Bets movement, and maybe it's a new way to value stocks. I generally don't think they believe that. I think that we're going to look back and say, should you have been egging them on and telling them, saying things publicly? Because I think, I can't look into their heart, but these are very intelligent people that understand capital formation.
Starting point is 00:40:22 And I think you got to think, okay, do you really think that this is a movement and that what they're doing is ultimately gonna be good for them? And- I don't think they think, Scott. I think you give them enormous amounts of credit. I think they just like the reaction. They like the applause.
Starting point is 00:40:38 They like, you know- I think they're all trying to grab the millennial vote. Why would they? I think they aren't. I think they just, a lot of these people are intuitive, like reactive people. All of the people you mentioned, all do not think as much as they should,
Starting point is 00:40:54 given their intelligence. Ready, fire, aim. Yep, exactly. All of them, they have that in common. I hate to say they're like Ted Cruz, and I don't think Ted Cruz and AOC are alike. I think she's like run the circles around him in so many ways.
Starting point is 00:41:04 But I think it's interesting. But we have to move on. We have to move on. We have to move on. We're going to take a listener mail. Anyway, Elon will be fine. Him and Jeff will do the battle for the skies. And all of us will benefit hopefully in some way,
Starting point is 00:41:17 unless they rain down. Would you, well, let me ask you this. Would you pay a quarter of a million? Okay, not even a quarter million. Would you pay 10 grand to go into space? No. Would you go into space? No, I have no interest in it.
Starting point is 00:41:27 A hundred percent. No, I'm with you. A hundred percent. Let's not go to space together, you and me. Never in a million years, but I didn't bungee jump when everyone else was doing it.
Starting point is 00:41:34 Anyway, moving on, let's take a listener mail question. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hi, guys.
Starting point is 00:41:44 Really big fan of you yourself Cara and of course you too Scott. My question is around Facebook. Full disclosure I have been working at Facebook two and a half years. It's the first job coming up University for me. They've been great employers but because I also love tech and I love listening to you, I speak and other thought leaders in this field, I've noticed there's been a lot of negative feedback on the brand overall since I've joined even. And I was just kind of wondering, do you guys have any positive sort of sentiment towards Facebook? Do you think we still have a role to play in the world? If not, why?
Starting point is 00:42:23 I'd love to hear it. Thank you. Oh, Sahil. He's a really big fan of mine and you too, Scott. That's my favorite part of this entire- Oh, and you. Oh, you and you over there. It's like that, okay, by the way,
Starting point is 00:42:34 I just want to point out that Representative Khanna goes on to Twitter and says, it was great being on Pivot with the inimitable, incredibly thoughtful- Most thoughtful person. And then, you know, he said, and Scott, too. And Scott, too. That's our new thing. And Scott, too. Thanks for the
Starting point is 00:42:50 big wet kiss there, Representative. It was literally like his press agent said, you have to mention that guy, too. You have to mention that guy. You don't actually kill CEOs like I do. That's why. He is literally like a pucker-up representative. This is just a regular guy who feels do. That's why. He is literally like. Listen, Sahil. Hucker off representative.
Starting point is 00:43:05 I have. Jesus. This is just a regular guy who feels the same way, Scott. This is how it's going to go for you. Listen to me. I think that's a Scottish accent. Hello. No, I don't think Sahil.
Starting point is 00:43:14 Is that a little Scottish? No, it's not. No, no. Anyway, I'm not even going to go into it with you. That's why they say. You know what? You're being very unloving to me today. You are being hostile.
Starting point is 00:43:22 You were late. You were late and I have things to do. Let's get going. It's like whenever, anyways. There's not enough hugs in the world. Speaking of hugs in the world. No, I don't have any positive to say. Gotta start investing in our relationship.
Starting point is 00:43:34 Gotta start investing. I will try. Listen, I don't care. So, Hill, can you think of something positive about Facebook, Scott? I like Instagram sometimes. It's not just about forgiving me. It's about forgiving yourself, Carol. Let's talk about Facebook. Instagram is fun sometimes. And I like Instagram sometimes. It's not just about forgiving me. It's about forgiving yourself. Let's talk about Facebook.
Starting point is 00:43:46 Instagram is fun sometimes. And I like the ads. I don't know what to say, Sahil. Okay, I had two thoughts hearing that question. The first was, did he have to clear this through the 800 person information bureau that is Facebook to ask this question? And they're like, is there a way you could make Cheryl
Starting point is 00:44:02 seem more likable when you ask the question? Anyways, look, Facebook, let's be honest. I think Facebook is a net of all the big tech. Yeah. Most of them are a net good for society. The problem is with the word net that we think, well, if they're a net good, let's leave them alone. No, we should regulate them. Google is a net good.
Starting point is 00:44:22 Amazon's a net good. Apple's a net good. We just need to go in and take away a lot of the externalities of that. I think Facebook is unique, and that is, I believe, on balance, in aggregate, is a net negative for the world. That is a good way of putting it, Scott. But that's not to mean there isn't tremendous value and opportunity that couldn't be unlocked if, quite frankly, they had an entirely different company or different leadership.
Starting point is 00:44:47 What would they do? How could they be good? Because I think the business plan, engagement and enragement are the thing that is most important there. I think it's hard to figure out a different way to do it. And just things pop up. Even the best intentions, you get this crap. And they don't always have.
Starting point is 00:45:03 I think you've bought into the narrative that, oh, they're trapped. They're forced to be evil people. No, they're not. These algorithms of amplification. They can change it. They can change it. They could move to subscription. They could take WhatsApp independent and have it be the new collaborative tool.
Starting point is 00:45:17 WhatsApp should have been basically Teams and Slack and TikTok, I don't think, would have gotten any oxygen had WhatsApp been an independent company. I think you would have seen a lot more innovation from WhatsApp if they kept the leadership there and kept it independent. I am wrong. You are correct. Look, there's enormous. It's like at Star Wars. I see good in you. I see the light.
Starting point is 00:45:40 Facebook, we see the light in you. You've got to get Circe and Daenerys off the fucking Iron Throne. You've got to get Zuckerberg. Are you insulting women again? As usual. They weren't the worst characters, were they? Cersei? Cersei? No, she was poignant. She was poignant. Powerful female leadership role on TV. I think she was a great role model. She was very good. In any case, there is things, you're right,
Starting point is 00:46:09 Facebook could do a lot of things. I recently did an interview with Kevin Roos about this, who has been a great Facebook critic also in a lot of ways, very damning of Facebook. Two things. One is they can change the algorithm anytime and it gets better, just like knocking President Trump off of Twitter. Second thing is, and they can do it and they've done it. They've done it and they've changed it back and it shows positive things.
Starting point is 00:46:31 And the other one that Alex Stamos, who we've had on the podcast many times, the thing that he said is that they have all these people they hire about civic engagement and better community and then they let the growth team take over no matter what. Why hire them at all if they're going to let the growth team make decisions? Would Alex Damos be an interesting CEO? No. No? He strikes me as very likable and thoughtful. He is. His project.
Starting point is 00:46:55 But I think he made the good point. It's like, they have those people there, they just ignore them. And you know that, Nanny. You know about those organizations where they bring in a person who's supposed to make things better and give them no power. What's all diversity that people like stuff like that it's optics they're brought in for optics yeah but give them no power when facebook brings in ken chanel under their board and ken chanel is like no i'm not going to be involved in this if you're not going to listen to me yeah exactly so so i want to make the world a better place and if you're not going
Starting point is 00:47:21 to let me we're going to finish this up thing, what would you advise young employees of Facebook to interact? How would you advise them to interact by leaving? It's easy to be generous and righteous with other people's livings. I think people who work at Facebook, it's an incredible opportunity for them. Their first obligation is to develop economic security for them and their families. I have no beef with people who work at Facebook, but I think a lot of them are coming to their own conclusion that time after time, there always seems to be an excuse
Starting point is 00:47:50 for not doing the right thing. And it's not a collective decision. It's a decision made by Mark Zuckerberg. There's a reason why the majority of his senior leadership, other than Sheryl, kind of drop like flies. And I think a lot of them just say- They don't. A lot of those people stay too.
Starting point is 00:48:04 But whenever they acquire a company, it seems like the founders end up leaving. Yes, the founders do. The old employees are still there around him. Well, they have options that are probably, it's probably hard to leave at this point. Look, I don't, everyone has to make a conscious decision
Starting point is 00:48:18 around where they work. The people that worked at Exxon were good people. The people who worked at Altria were good people. But you are working, there's just no getting around it. You're working for a company. Social media in itself is addictive. It's like nicotine.
Starting point is 00:48:31 Pinterest is addictive. Snap is addictive. But the shit that gives you cancer is these algorithms of amplification in the ad model. And Facebook is giving our society cancer. So you work for a cigarette company. Unfortunately, the stock is so high. It's really like the minutes another CEO comes in and starts throttling this back,
Starting point is 00:48:52 they're going to get attacked. So that's the issue. They've got to have Mark do it. Mark has to say, you know what? I run this place. I don't really care. He has, that's what's so upsetting is that he has the power.
Starting point is 00:49:04 He does. To put stakeholders over shareholders because it's a dual class. The whole, let's go back to dual class shareholder companies, which are a violation of governance. It said, it's not one person, one vote. It's everything matters.
Starting point is 00:49:17 It's Kremlin governance. Everything matters until there's something I don't like and I get to decide. So it's not real governance. It's total, the Ford, and by the way, the Ford family does it with 6% of the company and I get to decide. So it's not real governance. It's total. The Ford, and by the way, the Ford family does it with 6% of the company. They get to control it. The Sulzbergers get to control the New York Times with 15% of the company. It was originally the initial justification for why corporate governance should be Kremlin-like governance, is that media is so important, so important that we shouldn't be subject to the vagaries and
Starting point is 00:49:44 short-term needs of people who might come in and say, I don't like the way you're talking about, you know, war in Iraq. I'm going to take you over and I'm going to influence you. We were supposed to be, it was supposed to be, they pitched it as a protection for a net good for society. And guess what? It's backfired. It's now a net bad. He could say these amplifications, these algorithms of amplification are bad. We need to dramatically change our business model. And by the way, it's going to cost a shit ton of money and our shares are going to get cut in half, but I have a vision for this. And he could do it. He could do it. He doesn't think it. Sahil, we don't have any answers for you. You should go to another company. Go to, Eddie Jassy's a really cool guy. That's what I'd
Starting point is 00:50:24 say. Anyway. Anyway. All right, Scott, one more quick break. I got to go soon. I got things to do. We'll be back for predictions. ever lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign well that's why we built hubspot it's an ai powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you tells you which leads are worth knowing and makes writing blogs creating videos and posting on social a breeze so now it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day,
Starting point is 00:51:17 the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results. Sell more, raise more, and build more genuine relationships with your audience through a suite of digital marketing tools made to fast-track your growth. With Constant Contact, you can get email marketing that helps you create and send the perfect email to every customer,
Starting point is 00:51:54 and create, promote, and manage your events with ease, all in one place. Get all the automation, integration, and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly. All backed by Constant Contact's expert live customer support. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca for your free trial.
Starting point is 00:52:24 Constantcontact.ca Okay, Scott, you got to do a short one. I got some things to do today that I got to get to. You need to be more loving towards your co-host. Today is not a loving day. I'll call you later. I'll be nice to you on the phone. I'll send you cookies.
Starting point is 00:52:41 I need that. You know I need that. You know I like it. I need it. So prediction time, fast, because Kara Swisher's got somewhere to go. Okay, so GameStop is reattaching to the fundamentals. And this time last week, when we said,
Starting point is 00:52:54 and I believe our exact words were, these people were going to get smoked. They are getting smoked. It peaked exactly seven days ago. The stock was at 476, it peaked. And now I believe it opened at 71 this morning. So no tendies, as they say. Well, specialty retail, whether it's, you could argue Best Buy is big box,
Starting point is 00:53:12 but Williams-Sonoma, Restoration Hardware, Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters generally trade somewhere between 0.2 and 1 times revenues. Game stock, so my prediction is very straightforward. The game stock is reattaching to the fundamentals, and within two weeks is going to be trading somewhere between $25 and $50 a share. The reattachment is happening. And also everybody posing again for millennial cameras says this is a new era of investing. No, it's not.
Starting point is 00:53:39 The best regulator in the world, the best regulator in the world are the pain from mistakes. And there's tremendous informal regulation going on right now. All the attacks I was getting because I didn't get it, and I was a boomer protecting my hedge fund buddies, and I was crying because of my losses, none of which were true. And all of a sudden it just went dark.
Starting point is 00:54:00 It just went dark. Because you know what's happening? You know what's happened? A bunch of people said, hold the line. Storm the castle so they could get rich. And there is so much pain out there right now. And this thing is reattaching to the fundamentals. And it's going to be $25 to $50.
Starting point is 00:54:16 And they say it's a new era in investing. No, it's not. Because guess what? Let me step in. Here's what's new. I'm going to step in. I'm going to step in your thing. In some cases, there's always going to be a short squeeze kind of company situation.
Starting point is 00:54:27 And this shows that people can do this on certain stocks. But these short squeezes are very, not rare, but they're not, what really matters is the fundamentals. If you're interested in investing, I think it's a great thing. And I think more people should be investing, not just rich people. Investing though. Define investing. So do research, pick companies, make good decisions, and stop playing the speculation
Starting point is 00:54:47 game. I get that you want a part of this stupid part of Wall Street, but the casino part and the speculation part is it makes nothing, it creates nothing, it doesn't help people, it doesn't give people jobs, it's just a lot of bullshit. You can play that game, but when you play that game,
Starting point is 00:55:03 you're going to get burned one way or the other, or you're not. You're either screwing someone or being screwed. And so I don't understand why people want to play that game in any way that's productive to society. So it's fine that more people are involved. And if you want to do this thing, but you are going to really, if you don't time it right, if you don't do the right thing and you think it's an emotional thing, it's all about money for most of the people that are playing it. That's right. And speaking of money, here's what the research shows. 80%, 80% of day traders lose money.
Starting point is 00:55:35 And we know what it comes right down to. It's very simple. The more you trade, the more money you lose. What percentage of people who have invested in a number of stocks and left them in there for 20 years have lost money? Zero. Zero. It's exactly what Warren Buffett said. It's not timing the market. It's time in the market. Not as much fun, not as much fun, but investing is about finding good companies or even just buying the indices, the low-cost indices. It's your investment strategy, quite frankly.
Starting point is 00:56:07 It's putting money away, putting things away and not thinking about it. The biggest mistakes I've made in investing were one, getting into this day trading phenomena for about a week with iOmega. But it was a great lesson for me because it happened early. And I sold, I bought Netflix at $12 a share.
Starting point is 00:56:23 That's the good news. It's at 550. I sold it at 10 to like take a tax loss or something and never bought it back. Find good companies, put them away. And then if you love trading, if you really love the markets. Go to Las Vegas. Well, not if it's dope ahead. You'll get free drinks.
Starting point is 00:56:40 But recognize that dope ahead costs money. But if you love the markets, and I get the sense a lot of these people really love the markets, then try and get some certification and some training and go into the industry and get armed with great research and armed with super computers. I do think one of the positive outcomes here is that a lot of young people have been inspired by the markets and the markets are a wonderful way to make a living. But if you're looking to make money, if you're looking to invest, boy, 80% of day traders lose money. And that's what these people are learning a very hard lesson about. This is a game. This is a game and it is a tough game and it's a nasty game. And again, my focus
Starting point is 00:57:16 is like, you're not helping anybody, you're helping yourself. And I'm glad that some people made money and are able to pay for their parents' rent. There's a lot of cool stories like that out there. And screwing the man, sure, that's great. That's great. But this is not, the real power lies in ownership of really great companies creating jobs, et cetera. It doesn't, this is just, this is just like anything else that's, like gambling. It's fine. I like gambling.
Starting point is 00:57:40 I do it myself, but. It's fun, right? I know what it is. It's fun, but no, you're probably going to lose it all. It's consumption. Yep, it's consumption. And there's nothing wrong with that. But I support the idea, and I do think a lot of those short sellers need to be kicked in the teeth.
Starting point is 00:57:54 I love watching them being kicked in the teeth. Well, that was fun, no doubt about it. And if there's any regulation, it should be across all the hedge funds that have been trying to pull this shit for the last 20 or 30 years. Yes, we don't like them anymore. But we don't like you either in that regard. You know what I mean? Like who's screwing who? It doesn't... Anyways, you asked for a prediction. My prediction is GameStop stock within... But they'll pick another one. It's already happening. Within two weeks, we'll be between 25 and 50 bucks a share.
Starting point is 00:58:17 And everyone posing from the millennials cameras has said this is a new approach to investing. So many people, for every story that's been publicized about someone paying off their mortgage, there's more stories about someone who got egged on and thought they were part of a movement and didn't understand the technology and the technicals of the stock and went in and got smoked. And I think the lesson here is going to, the regulation, the informal regulation
Starting point is 00:58:41 that's going to happen here in the market dynamics are that the warriors who will hold the line and take a spear in the chest for you, the bandit, the person trying to make money off of them, those people are going to rethink it the next time. And I just don't think you're going to see the same level. I don't think you're going to see as many what I'll call crowd squeezes. We'll see. We'll see. It's interesting. It sure is interesting.
Starting point is 00:59:02 That's all I have to say. Okay, Scott, that's the show. I'm sorry if I wasn't nice to you, but I really do bring... No, don't even start. Come on. If someone even shows you one, like says, oh, you're late, you get like, oh, you're hurting my feelings. Come on. Come on.
Starting point is 00:59:14 Come on. Got to start investing in the relationship. I don't want to. I'm short squeezing our relationship. That's what I'm going to do. You know, Kara, this is the real question. Are you angry at me or are you angry at yourself? I'm never angry at myself. Are you angry at yourself? I am literally never angry at myself.
Starting point is 00:59:31 So, D, there's actually, I'm being serious for a moment. One of the keys to living a happy, rewarding life is not only bringing forgiveness to others, because in every relationship, both parties will at some point screw up, is bringing forgiveness, but also, also bringing forgiveness to yourself. At the end of life, at the end of life, you know what people's biggest regrets are? What? Well, that they hadn't invested more in their relationships, that they hadn't lived the life that they wanted to live
Starting point is 00:59:52 instead of what society wanted them to live. Yeah, okay. And also, they wish, they wish they'd been more forgiving of themselves. They wish they'd been less hard on themselves. So be less hard on yourself and love the girl. I'm not hard on myself. Love the girl.
Starting point is 01:00:04 I love myself. I'm fine on all those things. I'm good. I'm good. You're angry. You're being mean to yourself. You're being mean to yourself. Okay, today's episode. All right, that's the show. Go to newyorkmagazine, no, nymag.com slash pivot to submit your question for the podcast. The link is also in our show notes. Scott, I am leaving you right now. I got to go. I got to go do something. All right. I adore you, Scott. Bring forgiveness. But largely it's because of major
Starting point is 01:00:33 mental issues I have. That's why I like you. Anyway, read us out. Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Entretat engineered this episode. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you've subscribed to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify
Starting point is 01:00:50 or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for a breakdown of all things tech and business. Life is not about what happens to you.
Starting point is 01:01:04 It's about how you react to what happens to you. Forgive yourself. Don't be so hard on yourself. Support for this podcast comes from Klaviyo. You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you. Deliver that feeling to your customers every time. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. Over 100,000 brands trust Klaviyo's unified data and marketing platform to build smarter digital relationships with their customers during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and beyond.
Starting point is 01:01:49 Make every moment count with Klaviyo. Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM. Thank you. for Digital Disruption Report, you can learn the best path to turning that disruption into growth for your business. With a focus on clarity, direction, and effective implementation, Alex Partners provides essential support when decisive leadership is crucial. You can discover insights like these by reading Alex Partners' latest technology industry insights, at www.alexpartners.com slash Vox. That's www.alexpartners.com slash V-O-X. In the face of disruption, businesses trust Alex Partners to get straight to the point and deliver results when it really matters.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.