Pivot - The iPhone and augmented reality, Facebook and Twitter clamp down on misinformation, and predictions about Airbnb

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

Kara and Scott talk about Apple's new LiDAR technology on the iPhone and the avenues it may or may not open up. They also discuss Facebook and Twitter limiting the spread of a New York Post story. In listener mail, we get a question about how smaller internet companies would fare if Section 230 were repealed. And Scott sees big things for Airbnb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure. Hi, everyone. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. You know, we talked last week about Dan Loeb, who wrote me and said he was mad I didn't consider him a friend. Wasn't the term he used side bitch? Yeah. Yes, something like that. Because, you know, he's kind of from your world.

In any case. What world is that? What strange planet in hell is that? Guys who like to talk about prostitutes a lot. I don't know what a side, I don't even know what a side piece bitch is. You said that like it's a bad thing. I don't even know what a side piece bitch is. I just don't even know. In any case, Dan, okay, we're friends.

Sure, whatever. Big D, D-Lo. I have real actual friends, but Dan Loeb is a very interesting and fascinating character, and I would be happy to have him on the show. We're going to try to get him to come on the show. But Disney is officially pivoting its business to focus on streaming, which Dan suggested. He's an activist investor. Where does that leave Hollywood and streaming?

What do you think they've sort of reorganized? It's because it's their business for the next year, I guess. I mean. Yeah, it is interesting. They've essentially said that they're going to have a, quote, unquote, distribution team. Typically, the way they're organized is around verticals that say, okay, this group, it produces content that starts on movies, it's Marvel, it's Men in Tights. And while we've ruined the motion picture industry by clustering it around a few tentpole businesses, I mean, talk about an industry that really set

itself up to fail. But anyways, they said, we need a group to more thoughtfully think about the role that distribution plays in driving shareholder value. And what's going on here is important because Disney still hasn't really crossed the chasm. And that is if they were really serious about moving to a recurring revenue bundle and they were really serious about— Chasm. It's the Rundle chasm. There you go. The RASM. The RASM. If they wanted to— The RASM.

If they wanted to double their share price without a noticeable increase in revenues, they would use Disney Plus as kind of the core, the basis, or the nucleus of this recurring revenue bundle, parks, experiences, cruises— Other things. —yoda dolls before you even know you want them. Yeah. But what you have to do is you have to have the backbone and the stomach to say, okay, Black Widow, the new superhero film, they've delayed it a year. They shouldn't delay it.

They should put it out on Disney+. But they're still not willing to do that because, like, we want to go into the theaters and see if we can grab between a half a billion and a billion dollars in short-term cash flow. Yeah. Well, how was their Mulan experience? I mean, it was not as good as they thought or people were disappointed. It's just a different business. They have to think of it differently, this long-term relationship with their customers so that they can sort of, you know, it's interesting because the ones that do have relationships like Apple and Amazon did better during this pandemic. Well, just think about it. People do have a long-term relationship with Disney, though.

A hundred percent, but they're thinking about short-term revenues and not long-term shareholder value. Think about how many people, Disney Plus is hands down the most successful streaming video launch in history, 60 million people. is hands down the most successful streaming video launch in history, 60 million people. But think about if you could only get Marvel and Star Wars movies on Disney+. And by the way, you skipped that, the second worst retail experience in America behind gas stations, movie theaters. Right. How many people would be on Disney+, pretty much anyone, anyone with a credit card. You know, my kids, it's interesting, they're always saying, what's the Disney Plus password? Like, that's the only thing they say to me, which is, well, they say other things.

But it's really interesting. I hate you. No, they use Netflix. They definitely use Netflix. That's what my kids are saying to their mother right now. They love me. I'm telling you. There's a lot of I hate you's rolling around on the household right now.

No, my kids are being great. They suddenly settled into it. I know, I know. You have Waltons. No, they have. I'm so proud of them. The Waltons means great. They suddenly settled into it. I know, I know. You have Walton. No, they have. I'm so proud of them. The Waltons means Cagney and Blasey. It's not the Waltons, but they've handled this.

I'm very pleased with how they've handled this pandemic situation. I know, I know. We went apple picking this weekend. Yeah, I heard. I heard about the apple picking. We went apple picking. It was so nice. We've all heard about that.

It was amazing. Listen to me. That's just fucking adorable. No, listen. Here's the deal. They have a relation with Disney in a way that is very interesting, and I'm sure they would do more. You're right. They would do more because they want to see those Marvel movies and different things.

Do more and pay more. Organizing and calling out distribution is a key component, is really saying, all right, being more thoughtful around how we drive shareholder value as opposed to just monetize content through the traditional path of old Hollywood, if you will, is an acknowledgment that what has gotten them here today isn't going to get them where they need to go. That is articulate. Are you going to be on the new Disney board that Dan Loeb takes over? Disney is one of the few boards I would say yes to. I'm actually getting off a board right now, and I had a friend of yours, actually. They called me, who's a headhunter for boards, and she said, I want to put you on these boards. I'm like, these are Joey Bagadonis boards. I have no interest.

And she said, what board would you go on? And I said, I'm going to go on Disney. Anyways. They're never going to let you. Iger, call me. They're not going to let you. Call me. Yeah, I'm sure I'll get a call in the next never.

No, you know who'll get a call? I will. In the next never. From Iger, and he'll be like, I got to keep him off. The new sheriff of the internet. The new sheriff of the internet. It's the she-ref. It's the she-ref.

The problem is, on all the good boards, on all the good boards. Yeah, I know all that you are. No, there's somebody I have massively pissed off. I know that. That's what I'm saying. You're never getting on that board. Everywhere I go, it's like, how do you deal with that guy? I'm like, it's great.

Persona non grata. Daga non grata. Listen, here's one more thing we have to talk about. Dropbox is the latest tech company to make work from home permanent. It looks like it's just now a thing. It's going to be now a thing that you're going to work from home. There's a bigger story here, and that is if you think about really tectonic shifts in our economy where there is a not only growth. There's two ways to make a shit ton of money, and that is to get on a rocket ship that is growing, right?

Dropbox, I'm not even entirely sure what they do. I just know what they do is growing something on storage. You drop things in a box, but go ahead. Yeah, there you go. You know, search is growing. You know, AI is growing. You get on a rocket ship. The other thing you can do is get in front of a tsunami of change. And that is there's an earthquake

off the shore and then this tsunami that is taking water from everywhere else and is forming just a massive change in the ecosystem. And some of those, which is kind of my way of, you know, how I describe shifts in the economy when I'm on edibles. But anyways, the biggest shift is going to be the $4 trillion that's up for grabs through new distribution mechanisms in healthcare that's no longer going to flow through hospitals and doctor's offices. The second biggest shift, Cara, is going to be the transition of capital, both time and financial, from what is arguably the third largest asset class in America, and that's commercial real estate, to the largest asset class in America, which is

residential. If you think about, on average, companies spend between $20,000 and $30,000 per employee on real estate, security, snacks, conference rooms, all that crap. And if people are going to spend between 30 and maybe 50% less time in an office, then it just goes to reason that over the next three, five, maybe 10 years, 30 to 50% of the value, the asset value of commercial real estate is going to leak to residential. So that means everything from restoration hardware. And you're fixing things, yeah. To Best Buy that sells you new stuff for your home is going to just boom. Home heaters, outdoor heaters. Remote. They're sold out everywhere. It's fascinating. It is interesting what's selling. And I wonder

if it'll kick back, but I got to tell you, downtowns, I've been in a lot of downtowns recently. Just like what happens Like, what happens to them? That's another talk show, but I actually believe, I mean, it's situational. I think San Francisco is finally, people are waking up and realizing that San Francisco is a product that is bad yet expensive. Yeah. It's not bad. Typically, if you look at economic history, cities thrive after pandemics. So, I went on Bradley Tuss' podcast.

By the way, Bradley, I think he's so insightful and really thoughtful about politics. Talking about cities in New York. And if you think about New York, everyone uses New York. New York is singular. And if the rents and the prices of homes come down in New York and it goes a little bit younger. So people will be working from home in New York. It's just not in the office areas. Well, but also there is a flip side in that as Amazon, Facebook, and Google

are doubling down on the notion of an office space because who loves to go to work? Young people. Yeah, you've talked about this. This is interesting. New York could go one of two ways. You could see crime increasing, the tax base devolving, trash piling up, services going down, and everyone just continues to flee. And I can't tell you, anyone I know that makes over X million dollars a year that I know, I'm not exaggerating, has called me in the last 60 days and said, can we talk about Florida schools, what life is like down there? There's an exodus of masters of the universe that is unparalleled.

I'm telling you. All the already people I know that are living up in like upstate New York and different, they're like bored out of their minds. I'm just telling you. But Manhattan, here's the thing, and I'm not from Manhattan. I've spent, I think, probably 60 days in 17 of the 20 biggest cities in the world. Everyone's competing for number two. Manhattan is singular. Yeah. And if Manhattan goes a little bit younger, and quite frankly, the real estate there goes from, you know, $7,000 for a two-bedroom to $44,000 for a two-bedroom.

And then you have the best companies in the world creating these Xanadu-like atmospheres in terms of offices. It could be a new golden age for New York. Interesting. It could be. Interesting. So, I don't know. I'm actually bullish on cities. I think cities have been written off. All right. We should have a city person come in and talk to us. Richard Florida., I don't know. I'm actually bullish on cities. I think cities have been written off.

All right. We should have a city person come in and talk. Richard Florida. All right. He's the city guy. I'll call him, yeah. And also, Paul Romer, Nobel Prize winner, he was kind of the first guy to talk about the power of cities. All right.

We're going to have someone in. I think cities are fascinating. We're going to talk about cities. I think that would be really good. Okay. But we're going to get to big stories. Earlier this week, we talked about Apple going to 5G. But let's talk about another new direction the company has taken.

They announced LiDAR scanner in the phones that will allow for more immersive augmented reality experiences and all kinds of things you can do. In practice, what it means is app developers have the ability to enable things like room scanning, which is better for AR shopping apps, home design tools, games. Snapchat is the first company to announce that we're putting new technology to use.

Now, you and I have seen these technologies come and go. So what do you think about this? And how does it, do you think it's a big deal or are they just preparing us for glasses? You go first. I think they're preparing us for glasses. And I think a lot of this stuff is really good from a business point of view.

You know, there's all kinds of, at their presentation, which I watched, they made all kinds of business cases for this kind of thing, where there was a hospital that was putting giant machines in, and right now they do it with boxes, like, you know, where to place them,

because you can't move them when you, you know, have an MRI come in. And it was really interesting, sort of bringing CAD software to your phone kind of thing. That was sort of the argument they were making. But you can see, like see all kinds of business uses. And in gaming, you certainly could start to map out your house and then play the game in the house and things like that

with glasses of some sort. It's interesting. And then when you combine it with 5G, it sort of starts to get fascinating. And retail experiences, you take a picture of your room and see everything in it. You can eventually take a picture of yourself, I presume, and put clothes on you and things like that. So, I don't know. It's an interesting thing to focus in on. They really did make a big deal of their LiDAR technology. Yeah. I think VR joins the scrap heap of 3D printing and wearables.

I think it's one of these incredible head fake technologies. My favorite was wearables. There's only one wearable that's ever really worked and it's your iPhone. That's the only wearable that matters. And the only one that's been commercially successful has been the Apple Watch

because it has the backing and unbelievable support of Apple. And I still, I personally think the Apple Watch is not a very util product. But VR, this notion, first off, tech cannot be in the business of wearable. They fall under the impression that because they wear clothes, they understand

anything about fashion. What you put on your face is an exceptionally thoughtful decision for people. And tech is just not the people to figure it out. Not Apple? I don't think so. I think Google Glass wasn't a wearable. It was a prophylactic ensuring no one would ever have sex with you. Yes, but it was the right idea. I'm going to argue with you. I think it was directionally correct and executionally wrong. I'm going to push back on you on this one because I do think people will have things on their face if it's done right. They will.

You don't think so? I don't. You think it's 3D printing. Well, even my son, my youngest really wanted, so there's only two unicorns in Florida, which makes no sense because we have no long-term thinking because we're basically a rest home and a place for tax pats. But anyways, Galloway, Florida governor 2022. That would be both you, right?

That's your demo. That hurts. That hurts. It was meant to. Go ahead. But we have two unicorns. One is Chewy, this cool online pet retailer, and the other is Magic Leap, which is just a ridiculous company in my view. And that is its VR.

And, oh, God, I know I'm going to hear from the fucking CEO. I never hear from the CEOs of people I say nice things about. I only hear from the CEOs of people I'm like, we'd like to update you on our latest thinking. And while I respect you and care a show, I was disappointed to hear I get all these, like, long bullshit emails from them. Anyways, VR, I think it's an enormous head fake. I think people can get nauseous on their own. What is, and you've talked about this, what I think is more commercially viable is AR, and I think it's more. Well, that's what Apple's aimed at.

They're not aimed at VR. It's hold up the only wearable that works. Hold up your phone to a building, and you get to see what apartments are for sale or for rent. Okay. All right. You know, hold up. You can see it doing things around maps. Even, you know what?

For the first time, I thought, I got to do this with my kids. I was in Mexico, and the couple we were with, the guy was holding up when we got home at night. The guy was holding up his iPhone to the stars. He had one of those celestial. They're pretty cool. I've had them. And that is really cool. Yeah.

That's AR. So, you can see a lot of applications there. But the bottom line is Apple right now. Apple right now is all about 5G, baby. This other stuff is just seven dwarves. I think later with gaming, I think it's just, I think it's the creativity has not gotten there. The VR I get, putting a whole new headset

on your head and this stuff. And of course, you have tech people saying, oh, it's easy. I'm like, no, it's a giant headset that you can string shit behind you.

It doesn't make any sense. And sometimes it's fun, like in a gaming environment, if you're in like a mall and they have those rooms and it's somewhat fun for about 15 minutes. But this stuff,

I think is really, I think directionally this is something Tim Cook has talked to me about a lot actually, this AR thing. And so I'm really eager to see what developers can do from a creative point of view. And I don't think it's quite there yet, but there's going to be something

that people are going to like using. Using the phone is more than just a communications device, that it's something else. And I do think there has to be an eyeglass kind of element to it. I don't know. I just think it's interesting. I think it's interesting that they're putting it there. They obviously think this is directly important.

And they're not a company like Facebook, trying to look for a trendy thing to add on. So I do pay attention when they do things. They don't just go, let's put LiDAR and wave our hands and jazz hands and do bullshit. I don't think that's this company. So I do think it's interesting that they're relying on some creativity to where this is going. And some of the stuff they showed was pretty cool. It's just a question if you'll use it again and again. And so what's something you'll use a lot? So it'll be an interesting thing. But you think just 5G, that's it. That's it. Well, look, I haven't had breakfast,

so I'm in an especially bad mood. But there's a certain number of technologies that I find are just literally press release after press release, and they never work because they basically miss consumer behavior. I don't think kids want to game with something on their heads. I think they want to game with the freedom of mobility and motility around their head and their. I think they want to game with the freedom of mobility and motility around their head and their face, and they want to watch a screen. And maybe on their phone, my kids do Pokemon on their phones when they're out exploring for whatever the shit they're looking for, other Pokemons. I think there's a lot of interesting commercial applications. But some of this stuff, I mean, another thing I think that is overhyped right now,

the new technology that's overhyped, quite frankly, I think is AI. I just don't. AI, okay. I get why people are excited about it, but it's going to be like, I mean, there's just so many. Peter Diamandis from The Singularity, he gives this great speech and he talks about all these new technologies. And I love his speech. I love it's fascinating. And I'm like, short every company in these things because it's bleeding edge.

What wearables worked? What wearables? Fitbits, probably, of all of them. Fitbits. Fitbit got bought by Google. It was a mercy killing. Yeah, okay. Fitbit wouldn't be around.

I call them unwearables, so don't look at me. What was the other one? Jawbone? Jawbone, yes, jawbone. And then there was, oh, and by the way, one of the greatest consumer brands in history and a good device, Nike's FuelBand, that didn't work. They just don't work. If someone's going to put something on their person, it needs to be Van Cleef and Arpels such that wealthy men want to have sex with them. I literally think there is, if anyone's going to do something interesting around this, I think it will be Apple.

And I think they will develop something that could be. I have tried all the glasses I've been through. The branded Apple Watch with Hermes. Remember that bullshit? Oh, yeah. Remember that bullshit? Remember it was like one of them was $10,000. Do you remember that?

The rose gold Hermes Apple Watch. It wasn't Hermes. Was it Hermes? Hermes, yeah. Was it? Probably the best luxury brand in the world. We'll see. We're going to take a quick break.

Scott and I are differing. I think when Apple does not wave its jazz hands that often, but you're right. By the way, that would when Apple does not wave, it's jazz hands that often. And so, but you're right. By the way, that'd be an awesome name for a dog. Jazz hands? Yeah, our Vichla is getting older. So, being the sentimental person I am, I'm already thinking about another dog. And I want to get a Great Dane.

And I'm thinking of names. I'm thinking jazz hands. Jazz hands. I was thinking Gestalt would be a great name for a dog. Gestalt. But jazz hands would be a funny name for a dog. Come here, jazz hands. Give me, come here. A big, like a big, clumsy Great Dane called Jazz Hands. That's a good one.

Jazz Paws. Jazz Paws. All right. All right, Scott, let's take a quick break. When we get back, we have more viral information on Facebook and controversies. All the Republican senators are mad at Facebook and Twitter ahead of the election and a listener mail question. and Twitter ahead of the election and a listener mail question. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter.

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and Facebook and Twitter moved to block it on lots of different grounds, including personal information in it and hacking and all kinds of things. Not really well, they didn't do a great job explaining it. But as it's turned out, it looks like the story is somewhat, it's another one of these, like they didn't, the story about that Barr was investigating didn't work out. So they're on to a new one around Hunter Biden. They've gone back to Hunter Biden.

None of this is working for them. But nonetheless, last month, Republican commentator Dan, I don't know how to say his name, Bongino? Bongino? I don't know, shared a video with over 3.6 million followers that a false plan that Democrats would be staging a coup. The video has been viewed 2.9 million times. This goes on and on and on. This goes on and on and on. They found out about us. This goes on and on in this. The Facebook page Occupy Democrats asserted that Trump had directly inspired a plot by right-wing group to kidnap mission governor. That's not true either. He did tweet some unpleasant things that would probably prompt people to do things, but nonetheless.

So can we have a free and fair election in this environment where this type of information is being spread? And now it looks like these companies are sort of finally doing something about it. I believe that America, I mean, I find one of the most discouraging images of the year was, you know, Orange Hitler and his Rose Garden Massacre. Yeah. But I found some of the most inspirational imagery of America, and it really makes me feel like, okay, the tensile strength, the connective tissue, the muscle of America,

the character of America is still very much alive. Have you seen the voting lines? Yes, it's amazing. People are waiting eight hours, and they're like, you know, fuck that. I think I'll be American today, and no one is going to suppress my vote, bitch. I mean, these guys are basically holding up the middle finger to a corrupt administration and corrupt officials and corrupt officials and the DOJ who have basically said we have been weaponized and our grandchildren are going to be so just embarrassed by our behavior. And so, yeah, I do think the bottom line is we can't have a fair election. It's just going to be a lot more effort than it ever has been. But I do think we're going

to get there. And I'm just so, I'm starting to feel hopeful again. And I mean, well, let me go this way. None of us want to say it out loud, but things are looking good for us. Well, what do you make of all the, you know, it's interesting because I wrote a column about Mark Zuckerberg and the Holocaust deniers thing this week. And also, you know, there's all these accusations that now they're censoring things. I think they're taking down lies and taking down false information, and they finally are actually doing it a little more aggressively. And the Republican Party is losing its collective mind, largely because they've been allowed to use these sort of free distribution vehicles for a lot of specious information. And so, you know, they try to conflate censorship with just out and out

lies, many of which are created by things like the Russian government. So, if you're at these companies and they've been, you know, now Facebook is joining in and it looks like they're doing it because they perceive a shift in power, my guess, how do you look at this, how they're handling it? And what would you do if you were inside there? You would have done it a long time ago, sort of cleaned up your mess a little bit more and allowed lots of misinformation not to happen. But what do you make of how they're handling it? They're sort of stumbling into it, I think. Chasson Harris quoted,

or there's this really interesting line of thinking in The Social Dilemma that, you know, as long as a tree is worth more as lumber, as long as whales are worth more dead, they will continue to fish the oceans and clear cut forests. And unfortunately, what Facebook has figured out and Twitter is that an enraged, polarized, upset person is worth more to them than a balanced, mentally healthy person.

And so they are in the business of debalancing and enraging you. And the things that help enrage you are more novel, outrageous stories, which is another way of saying a conspiracy theory. And if you can get a conspiracy theory or something that's really crazy, like the Post putting out that Bill Gates is funding vax research so he can implant a microchip, which, by the way, the New York Post covered and actually lended some credibility to. I think the most hilarious thing about all of this is that credible news sources, including the New York Post, I'm like, well, that's a credible, it's an entertaining news source. I wouldn't call it a credible news source. Anyways, they have, I don't, I literally don't – I understand why Facebook has tried to play the slow roll around this, your term, which I love.

But this is what they need to do. They need to come out of the closet and say, we've always been a media company. We're still a media company, which implicitly means we have a bias. What do you make of the attacks from Hawley? Hawley was hysterical. He's like, I'm going to report them to the Federal Election Commission. And I'm like, well, Trump and the Senate have not allowed it to be.

Was he going to report MSNBC and Fox? There's no quorum. No, I know that, but I'm just saying they don't have a quorum. They can't do anything about it because it's been blocked by the Republicans. And they haven't had a quorum for 100 days or some number like that.

And the guy who's leading it thinks that the election is a spiritual war, too. He's been saying things publicly. In any event, there's sort of go—Ted Cruz wrote one, Hawley, like, we're going to deal with their censorship, when in fact, it's like they've been able to ride roughshod over these social networks with all kinds of fake information, and now it's being pulled back. Yeah, but we're arguing over the symptom, and that is the majority of the argument is around, do they have a conservative bias or not? And then people like you and me point out that seven of the ten most viral stories on Facebook tend to be conservative-leaning articles. But that's not the argument.

The argument is, okay, they're a media company. And with any media company, you can do one of two things. You can either decide it's a free-for-all and that if you want to let people on your WhatsApp platform say that this individual is a pedophile and the results of them being dragged out of cars and hanged, okay, that free-for-all approach isn't working well for anyone but Facebook shareholders and people have had it with the externality, the exhaust of this. So we can't do that any longer, especially with a Biden-Harris administration coming in. People have had it with that. We have to move away from it. If we involve any sort of curation or editorial, we can attempt to be down the middle, and we can state that. But anytime there's humans involved, there's going to be a bias. And guys, every other media outlet that you jones for the camera for has a bias. We're going to be the ones that are

going to try. We're going to try, whether you think it's the Wall Street Journal in the middle or whoever's supposedly in the middle right now. We're going to try to be in the middle, but let's be honest, we'll get it wrong on both sides. And guess what? That's called being a media company. Yeah, it is interesting. I just think they've gotten a free ride on this dirty train for so long they're used to it. And they're like, what? You're going to stop our dirty train? Like, come on. And then throwing this censorship thing, just like that chucklehead Ben Shapiro attacked me and Kevin Rose on that.

It's like, it's not censorship. Ben Shapiro attacked you? Yes, me and Kevin Rose. He was saying, we think the system's gamed. We not think the system's gamed. We think all it is is you're very popular on these social media platforms, so you can't complain you're being suppressed.

That's all we were saying, is like complaining being suppressed when you're in the top ten numbers. You're in the top ten numbers several times is really kind of ridiculous, this victimization thing. But I think they've all been riding this filthy train where good information mixes in with false information, and they're used to it, and now the train ride is over. That's really what it is. It's the whole, it's like scaled sociopathy. I mean, a key component of being a sociopath is constantly claiming you're a victim, as led by Orange Hitler, always saying that he's a victim, and all these conservative radio talk show hosts that complain that they're being suppressed. They have so much distribution. They have so much distribution. Guess what? States with no population, about 20 to 30 percent of the population is represented by 53 percent of the senators.

I mean, if you look at the data, conservatives as a, you know, old men who are pre-prostate cancer who are white and claim to be heterosexual make up about, make up about, I don't know, about 27 percent of the population. And they make up about 80 percent of any powerful body in the world. And there's just no, there's bullshit notion that somehow they're being, their ideas are being suppressed. percent of the population, and they make up about 80 percent of any powerful body in the world. And there's just this bullshit notion that somehow their ideas are being suppressed. The media does have— The lies are being suppressed. You're right. The lies are being suppressed. The media does have a liberal bias. And so, if you're— Sort of. It does. No doubt about it. Because the thing is, most people in media go to college, and you start getting a liberal bias when you go to college. I think it's like— I've been in these news.

They're very not liberal. I think they're just sort of – it's like calling Silicon Valley liberal. There's a total liberal bias in the media. Silicon Valley is not – no, it's – Total liberal bias. They're centrist. They're ridiculously centrist. Today, they're centrist.

Center, according to Kara Swisher, which is out-of-control liberal. No, it's not. I'm an out-of-control liberal. Anyway, speaking of which, NBC – I'm not actually an out-of-control liberal. Anyway, speaking of which, NBC—I'm not actually an out-of-control liberal. Meanwhile, NBC announced they would host a town hall with Donald Trump in the same slot as ABC's earlier announced town hall with Joe Biden. This is because Donald Trump declined to be in a virtual debate. So he's getting rewarded by getting an NBC special. NBC, of course, is where he did The Apprentice, so thank you, Jeff Zucker.

Is the mainstream media stoking these flames by forcing audiences to choose which candidate they want to listen to? I mean, like, it's kind of weird. Why couldn't they just do it at different hours? It's really odd, I find. NBC's getting slapped, including by Rachel Maddow. The whole point of these debates is such that the guy in the red sweater can be informed and see the contrasting viewpoints line up against each other and make an informed decision. By the way, I love that the red sweater guy has announced he wants another 15 seconds of payment and it's undecided because it's very important every four years. Say, okay, let's make sure stupid people are still stupid four years later. What's his name?

The idea, it not only doesn't make any sense it it undermines the whole purpose of these town halls and debates and that is you're supposed to be able to compare and contrast them and all they're doing is saying okay stay in your bubble stay in your bubble i mean what's with that it's so weird it doesn't make any sense and they say well if they'd given one an earlier time there'd be bias kind of they'd have them on different nights and then say – Yeah, why not? Like, I don't get it. Or flip a coin or something.

I think people are really attacking NBC. I mean, that just makes no sense. Yeah, they sort of did reward Donald Trump for being an asshole. Like, you know what I mean? Like, I will not do a virtual debate, but I will do this town hall. And it's going to be Savannah Guthrie, who, by the way, let me just say, she can be a tough interviewer. Everyone's sort of making fun of her. I think it's unfair. She's actually a pretty decent interviewer. Well, it's because you're not expecting it. Anyone named Savannah

you think is going to be nice to you. Do you? Do you really? Well, come on. You meet someone named Savannah, you're like, oh, God, I can relax. This person's going to be nice to me. No, she's quite a good interviewer, I think. Yeah, she is good. Those are the things I don't like as they tax on her. I think she's quite an excellent interviewer. But nonetheless. Why are they attacking Savannah? Because they're like, they just. She didn't decide this. They just, they don't, they're attacking NBC and so they're going after everybody attached

to it. Chuck Todd, of course, is getting his ass kicked on Twitter and everything else. In any case. Chuck Todd. They should. From Miami. Probably one of the smartest, most credible person from Miami. Chuck Todd.

Okay. I thought that was you. All right. So NBC I thought that was you. All right. So NBC, which one are you going to watch? Are you going to go between them? I'm just going to wait until Twitter to organize it for me. That's what I'm going to do.

That's what I'm going to do. All right. So it's just, it's a mess. It's a mess, people. It's a mess. I'll probably tune into Trump because I just hate myself and I find that as I get older, I want to kind of self, whatever you call it. Because he knows he's going to do something crazy because he could do something. And Joe Biden's just going to be like a nice guy.

Like, that's true. It's true. This is another example of when Biden got the nomination, I literally, I was so upset. I thought, oh, my God. You were. Oh, my God, we're going to lose it. We have figured out a way to lose this. And the reality is, is that Joe Biden isn't going to win this election.

Donald Trump is going to lose it. This has been the worst executed campaign for Donald Trump to figure out a way to not debate Joe Biden. Yeah. Is such a huge error. There's one more coming though. There's one more coming, though. There's one more coming, allegedly. There's one more. Who knows?

I mean, the Trump campaign, it's as if literally they just didn't show up. They have made such terrible moves. Anyway, we're going to get to listener mail. Let's go to a listener mail question. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. This question comes from Chloe Donaldson. How did you see Section 230 playing out for some of the smaller internet companies?

Sure, companies like Facebook and Google have tens of thousands of employees, many of whom are already moderating content, for better or for worse. But for a company like Reddit, who has 400 employees, or Craigslist with more like 50 employees, Section 230 would crush them. Their entire business model is built on the safety net that the 1996 law provides them. They seem to slide under the radar. Also, what footprint do these smaller companies have in D.C. these days in terms of lobbying? Thanks.

these days in terms of lobbying. Thanks. Okay, this is interesting because this repeal of 230 was mentioned by Donald Trump yesterday after the Facebook and Twitter thing. It was mentioned by Clarence Thomas, who literally wouldn't know 230 if it hit him on the head.

And of course, Hawley and the other guy, the one nobody likes, Cruz. So it does hurt smaller companies more. And again, it doesn't need to be repealed. It needs to be reformed. And the issue is Section 230 would affect smaller companies differently because they don't have the wherewithal to do it.

A lot of them would probably have to shutter. And these other companies have giant lawyers and cadres of lawyers and stuff like that. And so they could make exceptions and standards based on company size. They could do anything. They could create something after consulting with a lot of people and actually legislating and actually doing policy that, you know, that gets smart people around and figure out a compromise that would work best. Scott? because government has become a co-conspirator as opposed to a countervailing force to private power, that our taxation, our regulation has become regressive as opposed to one of the keys to capitalism is you have a progressive tax structure that says if you're smart, hardworking, and lucky,

and you kill it, you pay a larger percentage of your taxes. And we also have done the same thing around regulation, and that is small businesses under a certain number of employees are exempt or have been exempt from a lot of the regulations that bigger businesses are subject to. And I don't think there's any reason, to your point, about reforming 230. They might build in some exemptions. If you're a 20-person company putting out blogs or whatever it is, maybe you aren't held to the the same standards because quite frankly, you can't inflict the same damage. So, I think your term is the right one. It needs to be reformed, but there's no reason why we can't accommodate or, if you will, try and give companies... Small business has been the engine of growth. Two-thirds of new jobs are created by small

business. And small business has been kicked in the nuts because big companies have figured out a way to overrun government, and it hurts small business. And we need to return to a regulation and a tax system that helps the engine of our economy in that small and medium-sized business. They really don't have much of a seat at the table anymore. So, I think you can get around this. I think you can get through the dressing. And they don't have an ability, not just that,

but a lot of, you know, I remember interviewing the CEO of Reddit and they were doing some of this stuff that Facebook and Twitter are doing right now

and they were like, we just don't have the people. We don't have the resources to do this. It just puts us out of business, you know, and the same thing

with all these other small companies. And so, you know, some don't have the problem like a Snapchat, which is smaller if you can compare it all these other small companies. And so some don't have the problem, like a Snapchat, which is smaller compared to these other large ones. But you don't also want to have Facebook and Google spending their time doing this either. You have to figure out a way that they have adequate liability for the things on their platform and at the same time doesn't allow a zillion lawyers to just descend on these industries and just ruin them.

We have figured out liability in every other industry. We can figure it out here. I don't know. I feel like everyone's like, you have the tech people going, oh no. I cannot believe Clarence Thomas commented on it. Literally. I'm like, I'm sure he has trouble turning on his iPhone. And it's not something to be bandied about.

It has to be, like, smart. And people like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz know that. They just, it's also not a winner with voters. Like, 230, like, come on. Like, let's just do policy here. Let's just do policy. How about that? That would be really great if we could figure out,

including the Biden administration, if they just jump on this bandwagon, it's just ridiculous. Like, anybody doing this. it's an important industry. We should regulate it properly and we should all sit down and figure out the right way to do it. And that's, you know, unfortunately what happens is now we've gotten in this cartoon thing is they, you know, they censored it. Oh, they're keeping conservative voices. Oh, this, so that.

It's really, all it needs is some really smart people sitting down and figuring out the rules of the road. By the way, I thought of you, just because I'm so old, I occasionally tune in and watch the confirmation hearings and Ted Cruz's questioning of Amy Coney Barrett when he asked her about remote learning and piano lessons. I'm like, let me get this. If this was a male support group, how come you didn't ask Brett Kavanaugh about piano lessons? I don't know. I thought, oh my God, I hope Kara's watching this.

No, I didn't watch it. I just did. Like, she didn't answer any questions. Very deft not answering questions. Yeah, well, I don't know. They caught her up a couple of times. But for the most part, she did a rope-a-dope with them, and it worked. It's going to work. It doesn't really matter.

I can't imagine what she could do to get up there without this train is going down the tracks, and it's headed right towards the Supreme Court, and nothing's going to stop it. I don't know what she could have done. I yelled, I like beer. I don't know what she could have done. Something. I like beer!

She reminds me, I went to Georgetown, and she reminds me of a lot of people I went to school with. Very smart, very religious, very, she's very clever. She did a clever job at that and sort of handled it pretty well for herself. Whether they should have jammed it through or not is a whole different discussion, but she certainly, there was certainly nothing. None of them had, you know, had a glove on her, I thought. No, I think our only hope, our only, I don't want to say hope, the only chance this thing gets derailed is if there's more super spreader events and eight 75-year-old Republicans can't make the vote.

I don't see any other, I don't know, we'll see. Who knows? Strange world. The only thing she did mess up was not knowing the First Amendment, all the protections. I don't see any other. I don't know. We'll see. Who knows? Strange world. The only thing she did mess up was not knowing the First Amendment, all the protections. Do you know them, Scott? Can you say them off the top of your head? No, but I didn't win as many awards as you in journalism school. Go ahead.

What are they, Kara? They're press, freedom of press, religion, assembly, to be able to air your grievances with the government and then speech. Thank you. I think you and I are totally exercising our right around the airing of grievances pretty much twice a week. Yes, well to grieve

to the Congress to do that but you're right, correct. We get all those rights. We get all those rights. Anyway, Scott, I'm going to take a break. We'll be back for predictions. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know, it's not easy marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day to day, the personnel and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter.

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tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott, prediction, prediction. Big cities will be back, but that's not really a prediction. We'll see. We'll see about that.

That's going to be a while. So in my blog, No Mercy, No Malice, tomorrow I'm writing. So I talk a lot about stocks I think are overvalued and are stocks that I think are menaces to our society, or sometimes they're both. Palantir. Anyways, I'm usually- How's that doing? It's holding. in our stocks that I think are menaces to our society, or sometimes they're both. Palantir. Anyways, I'm usually... How's that doing?

It's holding. It's holding. It's, you know, we'll see. It went down a bit. Now it's back up. It's holding. Anyways, but I think, so I like to take a break and occasionally talk about a stock or a company that's going to come public.

And we've talked about this a lot. I think Airbnb is going to be the most valuable company in travel and hospitality and leisure in the next 12 months when it goes public. And I've been looking at this thing. If you think about it, it is the most, it is now, as we sit here, the strongest brand in the world of hospitality. If you type in Marriott Orlando, Airbnb Orlando, Hilton Orlando, and you do that for every major tourist city in the world, Airbnb either has more searches or is number two in any market. And the hotel market is so fragmented. There's no global brand except in luxury, and those aren't big businesses. It now has more hotel rooms than the top five competitors. It will do about $6 billion next year in revenue.

It's coming back stronger. They're going to leap. They're going to escalate to profitability because a crisis is a terrible thing to waste, and they cut out a ton of fat and a ton of non-core projects. They did. This thing, within six to 12 months of the IPO is going to pull a Tesla. And that is, it's not only going to be the most valuable hotel company in the world. It's going to be worth more than the next three or four combined. And here is what is just so powerful about Airbnb. And that is, at the end of his career, Muhammad Ali found himself with less money than he'd like. So,

he agreed to fight at the age of 38, Larry Holmes, who was 30 and was undefeated. And during his pre-fight physical, Muhammad Ali couldn't hop on one foot and was slurring a speech and couldn't attach the tip of his finger to his nose. He already had, you know, preliminary tardive dyskinesia. It's probably one of the great crimes in sports.

Anyone who approved that fight should have probably been incarcerated. They don't care. And what you have is, Airbnb comes into the ring It's probably one of the great crimes in sports. Anyone who approved that fight should have probably been incarcerated. They don't care. And what you have is Airbnb comes into the ring as Larry Holmes, and the hotel industry can't touch its nose. Oh, wow. I didn't expect that metaphor. Well, the hotel industry has been so deeply impaired. Name a hotel industry right now that is leaning forward and making investments in technology and brand.

They are all licking their wounds because they all have this really awful nuisance called a mortgage. And Airbnb can not only variabilize its costs down, it has no mortgages. And the thing about Airbnb is it doesn't have the emissions of an Uber. Everyone says, well, Airbnb is like Uber. It monetizes fallow assets. Not really. Uber monetizes and arbitrages the fact that the wealthiest nation in the world has decided to create an underclass. That's what it's arbitraging. And there is a special place in hell for Uber management. And by the way, it's going to have really shitty snacks. And Facebook. What's a shitty snack? Facebook, anything healthy. My firm, we're all healthy.

I'm like, oh, God. Carrot sticks. That's not why we come to work. Dry carrots. Facebook arbitrages the tribal nature and rage we get from certain relationships from people who don't have to meet you in person or bots that weaponize your primal instincts. Anyways, Airbnb really doesn't— It's a delightful service. It doesn't weaponize anybody. It's arbitraging— Well, it had issues.

They've started to clean them up and they certainly had left a lot of their regular renters. People had mortgaged their things. They've got all kinds of issues around cities and things like that. But none of them are unsolvable. I mean, there's things around taxes.

They got to start paying their fair share of taxes. There's an issue around housing. People, you know, people pulling a Johnny Depp and partying and whatever. That's nothing that doesn't happen in hotels. And they would say, well, crimes are happening in Airbnb. Guess what? I've heard that crimes happen in hotels. This thing, Kara, it's going to do $6 billion

next year. And you say, well, it's not a SaaS company. It's not a hotel company. You know what it's like? I agree. If you think about global company that's asset light, huge margins. Good brand, nice brand marketing. Global brand. Global brand. Nice marketing. And actually, I have to tell you, I have very few problems. I mean, there are issues around racism on the platform, as it again is on Nextdoor and different places like that. And they've been trying to fix that. But I have to say, it's almost a flawless experience. It's like Amazon and Deliver. It's sort of really hard to argue with it. We just rented one when we went and got married in New York, and it was flawless. I don't know how to explain it. It was so flawless.

Every step of the way, it was flawless. Talk about momentum a couple of things. One, talk about everyone's like, well, they're going to get hurt in the pandemic. The pandemic is the wind in their sails, because if you're freaked out about a virus or pathogen, guess what hotel or guess what hotel room doesn't have an elevator, doesn't have common areas, doesn't have a check-in? Oh, it's called an Airbnb. And by the way, they've tapped into this market. This local, this local. That's been so underserved. And that is, if you're like me and you travel with an entourage, if you want to stay at a hotel, it's just, you got to get three or four rooms.

It's just prohibitively expensive. More people want to eat, cook themselves. Everything about this thing is just such an incredible juggernaut. There's going to be more supply because people are going to need more reasons to monetize their assets. So, the key here, though, is I was looking for a comparable. And my tendency, like everybody else's, compare it to a SaaS company and it's worth 70 times revenue. Well, that's not really accurate. It's not a recurring revenue company, which, by the way, it should be a recurring revenue bundle, but that's another talk show. The company you compare it to, it's benchmark for valuation

metrics, global brand, asset light, incredible margins. Airbnb's comparables are Visa and MasterCard, which trade. They're the only companies in hospitality and travel, you could argue, that have the kind of global equity of Airbnb. They trade at 20 to 25 times revenues. I think Airbnb could do $6 billion next year, be profitable, trade at $20 to $25 billion, and be worth $100 to $150 billion. It was $15 billion just six months ago. Scott's going all in on Airbnb. Monster. Airbnb is going to be worth more than the three to five biggest hotel companies combined within a year from today.

And maybe they'll start buying hotels. All right. That's very good, Scott. I like it. I like it. And we'll see when they go public, which is relatively soon, I think. I think it probably might be before the end of the year. Gangster.

Absolute gangster. All right. That's the show. You know the drill. Email us with questions about companies and trends in tech and business at pivot at voxmedia.com.

We'd love to answer them. We'd love to have them in your voice. That was Rebecca reading that last question. Rebecca Sinanis. Scott, I will see you Monday. We have lots going on on Monday. And we'll see you post these town halls tonight and any other news of the weekend.

But please read us out. Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Fernando Finete engineered this episode. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you're subscribed to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you like the show, please recommend it to a friend. Cara, have a great

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