Pivot - The red-hot IPO Market , El Salvador’s Bitcoin Experiment and SCOTT IS BACK!

Episode Date: September 10, 2021

Scott has returned! He and Kara talk about The Justice Department’s ad tech suit against Google, the SEC-Coinbase spat, a record year for IPOs, and El Salvador’s Bitcoin buy. And it wouldn’t be an episode with Scott without some predictions - he tells us which start-ups are about to get some major attention. Send us your Listener Mail questions, via Yappa, at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond, and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure. to get your customers to notice you, Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation, integration,

and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, all backed by their expert live customer support. It's time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And guess who actually came back? And I'm Katie Couric. You wish. She was so good. Wasn't she good? Kara, Kara, I don't want that. I'm not interested in talking about Katie Couric.

And not only that, I don't even want to make a big deal about this because I don't like to be the story. For me, it's all about now the content so let's just get let's just bust right let's not make a big deal out of this all right let's not let's just bust into today's okay all right sounds good all right go ahead go for it just kidding dj ernie play that shit oh no is it a daytime talk show host? Is it someone sleeping with Kellyanne Conway? Is it the host of MSNBC? Is it the future governor of New York?

No. It's an angry, dysfunctional man with erectile dysfunction, but it's your angry man with erectile dysfunction. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the Dome. Oh, you're welcome. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the Dome! You're welcome. You're welcome. To my dozens and dozens of fans.

It was such a nice August. Hello. Hello. I have returned. I'm nervous to ask you, is your time away? So I got literally the scripts of all the stuff. Is your time away? What did you do?

What did you do? What did you do? What were you doing? How was my summer vacation? How was my summer vacation? Yeah, you forgot George Hahn, by the way. You forgot to add George Hahn into that list of people. My lover. My delicious lover.

That was a ball game. So, I love George Hahn. By the way, you guys made me almost cry. You said very nice things about me. Anyways, I'm going to get emotional. So, my summer vacation, I went to- Yeah, let nice things about me. Anyways, I'm going to get emotional. So my summer vacation, I went to- Yeah, let's hear about it. I went to Ibiza because I'm in love with someone who is playing chicken with a Delta variant. So we just went there and then I freaked out and stayed in the hotel for a week. But I had a

really good time. I went to this really hot club and I went into the men's room and this very nice gentleman offered me something called Fanta Naranja, which I later found out was Molly. And guess what I found out about Molly? Did you take it? When I take it, Kara, I like me. I like me on Molly. Listen to me. How was your time away?

We did miss you. Did you see White Lotus, by the way? No, I didn't. I watched the other one. Oh, it's genius. With Nicole. I don't want to watch people Lotus, by the way? No, I didn't. I watched the other one. Oh, it's genius. The one with Nicole. I don't want to watch people pooping in suitcases. No, no, no, no.

That one, Nine Perfect Strangers, is awful. I love it. Awful. I love it. You're wrong. You were wrong, Melissa McCarthy and Bob Ricard. Murray Bartlett. I would objectify.

You are Armand. You are Armand. I would objectify. I think her name is Alexa Daddario. I think she's the most beautiful person in the world. She is quite beautiful. She's also a very – I was shocked at what a good actress she is. She's a terrific actress, yeah.

But that guy, Murray Bartlett, he was a daytime soap actor. He is wonderful. Really? And I just want to put it out there. If he's ever in New York and wants to roll with a dog, I would love to roll with that guy. That guy is a gift. What did you do on your vacation? Are you going to say what you actually did?

What did you do? People want to know. People are asking me all the time. Literally this morning, I was taking Claire to school. It's her first week of school. And this guy jogged past me. He stopped. He took out his earphones.

And he's a government employee. And I'm not going to identify his agency, but it's an important one to tech. And he's like like where's scott and i was like okay that's right that's what i'm going to do a podcast with him right now so and then i went and i spent three weeks on a sandbar in the atlantic called nantucket i've decided to really lean into my white privilege wow and so anyways i was in nantucket and i like to write when i take time off so did you write a book um i wrote uh i wrote most of one yeah but i'm trying to figure out if Wow. And so, anyways, I was in Nantucket, and I like to write when I take time off. So, I wrote- So, did you write a book?

I wrote most of one, yeah, but I'm trying to figure out if it's going to be a book or if I'm going to turn it into an educational series. What's it called? My Time with Kara? My Deep Love. The Algebra of Wealth. I'm trying to figure out a way to help young people establish financial security. Why don't you make it The Calculus of Wealth?

Why don't you change the math? The Geometry. The Geometry. You know, it's never good enough for you. It isn't. It isn't. It's never good enough for you. But did you miss the show? I think you missed the show. You were tweeting and everything else.

You were very aware of my other relationships while you were away. Yeah, and I missed you. Tell me, rank the hosts for me. Who did you like? I like them all. I like them all. I thought they were great. So, for different reasons.

We'll have numbers, so we'll know which ones did better than the others. I'm biased. I have a real affection for Stephanie Ruhl and Andrew Ross Zirkin. I would consider them both friends. I really thought the learning for me was with George Conway and Katie Couric because I think that stereotypes are so dangerous. I think I have a cartoon of what both those people should be like. And I think George Conway is a great legal mind. I think I have a cartoon of what both those people should be like. Yeah. And I think George Conway is a great legal mind.

I really enjoyed listening to him. And I think Katie Couric is much more substantive than I think I wanted to think she was because my impression of her was just a daytime talk show host. I just don't know her very well. You said I'm fucking Katie Couric. She cursed. And I enjoyed listening to her curse. That was enjoyable. I thought she was really interesting. I love George Hahn. I think he's got a great voice. That was enjoyable. I thought she was really interesting. I love George Hahn.

I think he's got a great voice. That was a real gay show. I think he could be a successful podcaster if he put his mind to it. I just like the way he thinks. He's both handsome and has a handsome voice. I'm trying to think, who else did you have? Preet, your boyfriend. Look, next governor of New York, every time he talks, you just feel safer. Yeah, we'll have the governor of New York. You just want that guy to raise you have on? Preet, your boyfriend. Oh, yeah. Look, next governor of New York, every time he talks, you just feel safer.

Yeah, we'll have the governor You just want that guy to raise you, right? Yeah. Everything's going to be all right when you've got a guy like this. We'll go visit him in Albany, won't we?

Kind of try to make a controversy up there for him. There you go. Anyway, most of all, we missed you. We really did. Thank you. We held our numbers, apparently.

Well, hold on. Which one did you enjoy the most? I liked them all. I thought they were all. No, I won't. Come on. No, all of them. I'm telling you. one did you enjoy the most? I liked them all. I thought they were all. No, I won't. Come on. No, all of them. I'm telling you.

Who shocked you to the upside? I liked them all. I'm telling you. I liked them all. Obviously, George Holland was fun because it was super gay. So I liked it. I enjoyed that a lot. And I thought Katie was great, too.

I thought that was super gay. I didn't think that was super gay. It was super profane. It wasn't super gay. There was a lot of gay in there. You didn't understand it, but it was super gay. Yeah. It was real gay.

Over my head. That was comfy. Yeah, it's over your head. Over my head. We've got a couple of gay in there. You didn't understand it, but it was super gay. Yeah. It was real gay. Over my head. That was comfy. Yeah, it's over your head. Over my head. We've got a couple of topics for banter today. So starting with the first one, United Airlines is something we talked about while we were away. I did an interview on Suede, the head of one of the big airlines, American Airlines, who is not vaccinating its employees and requiring vaccinations. But United says more than half of its unvaccinated employees had gotten their COVID shots since the airline made vaccines mandatory.

They've got just two weeks, I guess, until September 27th to get those COVID vaccines. So what do you think? What do you think about this, Scott? While you were away, you were saying you were worried about the Delta variant, et cetera, while you were traveling. Well, we did say about eight weeks ago that one of our predictions was that vaccine mandates in the corporate world were coming. And people said, no, I can't do that. It's illegal.

It's absolutely happening. And unfortunately, everyone's mad at these mentally ill people showing up at school board meetings. And I understand that. Everyone's mad at Facebook and other media companies for spreading misinformation. People are mad at podcast hosts who've been dewormed. But the thing that trumps all of them, and this just so I'm an equal opportunity hater here, I think Biden's shown a tremendous lack of leadership. We need to ask Americans, the government is here to be our connective tissue. And the government embraces

something called science, and they have resources. And they've decided- Wait a minute. Why is Biden involved? He's been very strongly pushing this. We need a much harsher. You want to get on a plane? You want to cash a Social Security or Medicare unemployment check? Fine. We've decided.

We've decided. You want to show up to a public school? I'm not doing that. For God's sakes. When I go to Africa, I have to take tons of vaccines. You know, a lot of these government mandates have not worked. They haven't gone through in California even. Like these requirements have died in local and state legislatures.

I just don't buy it. I think the government, if they wanted, could find a lot of ways, both carrots and sticks, to get people. Because here's the thing. It would be interesting to have Preet or one of the seven million lawyers we have on the show. But here's the thing. It'd be interesting to have Preet or one of the seven million lawyers we have on the show. But here's the thing. I think that the people that get the news are the whack jobs who don't want to get the vaccine. You're like, well, it's an experiment on it. That's not the majority of the people haven't gotten a vaccination. The majority of the people who haven't gotten a vaccination are like the majority of people who don't vote. They're just sort of indifferent. Yeah. They're just sort of lazy. They're not against it. They're not for it.

They're just like, you know what? I'm not in a hurry. It's like I'm indifferent against my mastectomy. I've had a plan for six months and I haven't gotten it because I'm not super excited to go have a laser shot into Big Ed and the twins. Yeah, yeah. People, there are 90 million Americans who haven't gotten the vaccine who are eligible. And I bet about 80 of them probably would. Probably would with the nudge.

They're going to. Yes, if they're nudged. Yeah, I agree. I think the government is going to. What do you think? What are your thoughts? I don't think the government is going to do it. I think everywhere it's failed,

this idea of state vaccine mandates. As they move closer to them, they never get there. I think it's companies that are going to say, you know what, we're going to protect our employees and you can't come to work. I think United is handling it just right. And I think they're sort of pushing on people who use the religious exemption. Like, okay, then you have to go on unpaid leave. You have to pay for, you know, this is what it costs. Putting a cost on top of it by companies, I think, is the way to go. I think that's the way to go.

Was it Delta doing that, saying that if you don't get a vaccine? No, that's United. Just United. United. No, no. One's increasing their healthcare costs no, but one's increasing their healthcare costs. Yes, one's increasing their healthcare costs. So I think it should just be mandated. I'm not flying any other airline. When I was interviewing

the head of American, I'm like, I'm not flying American. You're not mandating. I'm not getting on it with your employees coughing on me. No way. 100%. I'm only flying United

and it's not my favorite. I like JetBlue better, but whoever has vaccine mandates, I'm going to their stores. I'm going to their things like that. And that's just the way it is. Okay, let's incremental. How can we not have vaccine mandates?

I saw the head of the teacher's union saying she's sympathetic to mandates. No, no, no. All right. I interviewed her. No, they're for them. They're for them. They're for mandates. Well, they haven't done it. Okay, they're for it. Well, they can're for mandates well they haven't done it they have

okay they're well they can't they don't have a rule the school systems have to do it they can't they're for it well they can't make their teachers do it the unions cannot make their teachers do it they cannot there's no they have no compelling way to do it school districts can and so good how how do health care but then you have those wacky frigging meetings with the crazy people showing up. Well, first of all, most – I love – I think the first question for everyone that shows up at a school meeting is, do you actually have a child in this school district? Or are you just here to just show us different stages of mental illness? Yeah, it's really quite crazy. But they show up at lots of – listen, school meetings have been wacky for decades.

But hospital workers, have you seen these TikTok videos of nurses saying, we've been thrown out like garbage? Like, you should be thrown out like garbage. You're practicing science, you don't believe it. Oh, I'll tell you who's my favorite, Dr. Jeffrey Swisher. He talked about that, about health tech people. Oh, I'm so embarrassed, I forgot. He brought medicine, which I love, and humanity together. And also, the person on your show, the journalist talking about Theranos, that was fascinating. That was my favorite episode. Yeah, and humanity together. And also the person on your show, the journalist

talking about Theranos, that was fascinating. That was my favorite episode. Yeah, that was great. D-Swish. Yes, John is doing the Theranos thing, which starts this week. We will talk about it next week when the trial starts. Let me get to another thing. The government of El Salvador purchased 400 Bitcoin one day after it became official currency in the nation. That's nearly $21 million at the time of purchase. So the president's all into the Bitcoin.

What's going on? He wants to be the Bitcoin country. So is everyone moving to El Salvador? Look, I think it's actually really big for Bitcoin. And there were a lot of stories about it's kind of the hiccups and the rollout. But I would argue there was less hiccups and the rollout than the rollout of Obamacare or Windows 8, I think a Bloomberg article pointed out. and the rollout of Obamacare or Windows 8, I think a Bloomberg article pointed out. But the remittance, it could reduce substantially

commissions around remittance. The GDP of Italy is transferred from in between the Americas from workers back to residents back into countries such as El Salvador, which is the poorest country in Central America. And it's great for Bitcoin. LESLIE KENDRICKS It's an interesting gambit for them. DAVID ABELSON Yeah, it is really interesting. And it's great for Bitcoin. It's an interesting gambit for them.

Yeah, it is really interesting. But people like Bitcoin for different reasons. Investors like it for the volatility. Some people like it for the technology. And then that's why people are worried. They're worried about the instability of it. But ATMs that convert to Bitcoin, Starbucks and McDonald's taking it, it crashed on Tuesday. But I actually would argue it's probably a buying opportunity.

I think it's fantastic for Bitcoin to have a sovereign nation saying this is our new default currency. Who the big loser is, existentially through all of this, is that if the USD gets replaced as the default currency, we're going to lose one of the most powerful armies in the world. And that is our ability to track foreign influence. That's a long time away, correct. I mean, all of the Bitcoin people say no. It's a long time. Right now, the US dollar is the currency of the world. Adop is our ability to track foreign influence. That's a long time away, correct. I mean, all of the Bitcoin people say no. It's a long time. Right now, the U.S. dollar is the currency of the world. It's a nation adopting it as a legal currency.

I think it's a big deal. What do you think? I think it's a small country. It's a great way to sort of involve them in some sort of economic resurgence for them. I think it's a good idea. You know, you think of countries that have done this many, like Switzerland becoming the banking capital, you know, a small country taking some financial risk to do so. I think it's a really interesting thing.

I would love to talk to the president when he's doing this. I think one of the issues is the avoidance of taxes, obviously, and then people moving there, you know, becoming like a Monaco, which is another, you know, there's certain countries that do, like Ireland, there's a different country, usually small ones. It's interesting to try these new, fresh things. I think what's interesting is the SEC at the same time, when we're having the head, Preet is going to be interviewing the head of the SEC,

Gary Gensler, threatened to sue Coinbase over its crypto lending program. So they've been fighting, and the SEC is trying to sort this out, all these things. And that's really where I think the trouble is going to be, is how the government responds. Shares and Coinbase fell on Wednesday following the news about that. But it's a really interesting time. And the question is, what will the SEC and other government agencies do around the Treasury Department and other net governments around the world about Bitcoin? Like, how do they engage with it? but you've always said they're about to show up they're about to show up with a i think they are yeah i think i i don't

know if it's a stick i think they've got to have a very uh sophisticated look at this because it's sort of a trend that's it's sort of like being against the internet right it seems like this is the future and so how do you but but there's all kinds of problems of people avoiding taxes hiding the dark you know all this stuff that's around any financial instrument over the many years. So I do think I think El Salvador doing it is interesting. It's prone to possible fraud. It's prone to problems, I guess, because these countries sort of are open armed. I do think a country that is not necessarily as easy to roll over is probably the best place for a lot of this stuff to happen, which would be the United States.

The United States and Europe and other countries have got to comment on this and regulate it in some fashion. So I agree with you. So it does say on your tax form, have you purchased or made any capital gains from cryptocurrency? And there's also, in addition to playing defense. Oh, wait, you're buying tools, right? You're buying tools. I'm a no-coiner. I don't understand it.

But I've invested in a company called Ledger. I'm like, I want exposure to it. So I'm in the picks and the shovels. So I'm in the kind of premier cold hardware storage wallet that has supposedly 14% of all crypto is on these devices. Anyways, because people don't want anything hot or connected that can be hacked. And the company is doing incredibly well.

Anyways, in addition to playing defense around regulation, if I were advising the government, and I might be, I would play offense. Are you and Janet Yellen hanging out secretly? Was she in Ibiza with you? Hello, Berkeley professor. Hello, making us proud every day. Making us proud every day. She was in Ibiza with you. Weren't you partying in Ibiza with Janet Yellen?

She's a gangster. I absolutely love. Oh, and by the way, who is also the chief economic advisor in the Clinton administration? Dean of the Haas School, Laura D'Angelo Tyson. We produce not only gangsters, but gangsters who have ovaries. That's what Berkeley is.

Hi, hi. Anyways. Okay. Anyways, where were we? Where am I? Oh, I was over here. Katie Couric. No. Okay.

Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. I'm fucking Katie Couric. That was my favorite line of the entire time. I think the U.S. should play offense. I think the U.S. should introduce a stable coin, a digital currency, and just basically put these guys out of it.

I think they should compete these guys away. Interesting. Oh, interesting. Terrible move strategically for the CEO of Coinbase to go on a rant against the SEC. I just don't think that was smart. I don't think, you know, I'm like, boss, you're not Tim Cook. And Gary Gensler, I get the feeling this guy came to play. I would not want to fuck with this guy. I would not want to antagonize him. But also, I think there's-

It's a critically important time to cooperate with the government on this. I think we should go into, I think we should have the Eagle coin and say, all right, playtime's over, guys. Digital currency, thanks for the innovation. But we're going to have an incredibly powerful, stable company with great technology. And I think it would be good for our brand. They would like to avoid regulation.

They're not going to avoid regulation. This group of people, you know, it's like the early internet. They were like this too. Too bad. Sorry, boys. There's always the same thing, whether it was oil or minerals and that, as these nascent emerging industries like to think that they're above regulations. Yeah. Oh, we're innovators. You shouldn't hold us back. And then ultimately- Yeah, it's a particular strain with the Bitcoin people. It's all linked together.

Well, it's that whole libertarian like- Yes, exactly. But they're going to be regulated. All right, Scott, we're going to move on to our big story. The IPO market is red hot this year. 2021 is the busiest year for IPOs since 2000. That's 21 years. The U.S. has seen over 250 companies IPO already, and more than 100 companies are expected to follow before January. That's not counting SPACs. There have been more than 400 this year compared to less than 300 last year.

IPOs are expected but not confirmed from Reddit, Discord, which I think would be really interesting, and Instacart. So what's the deal? And obviously, Robinhood went public. You're one of our viewers and my least favorite companies. But talk about this. Talk a little – do a little Scottness of it. Do a little Professor Galloway. By the way, you're teaching, right? Again, are you back to teaching?

I'm teaching at Section 4. I'm not teaching at Stern this semester. I'll teach in the spring. All right. Okay. So I'm not sure I have a ton of insight here. If you look at the IPO market, the number of publicly traded companies has actually, I think, been cut in half the last 30 years because of mergers and increased regulation. And so we're sort of just catching up. And then you've got to sort of parse it. There's some nuance here. The SPAC market has gotten kicked in the nuts. Only two SPACs got out in July. And over half of SPACs are over 50% or more off of their highs. So SPACs are a lot of the air is coming out of SPACs. There's% or more off of their highs. So SPACs are, a lot of the air is coming out of

SPACs. There's some great companies going public. The markets are still incredibly strong. Where I think the real activity is, where the real activity is, is in the private markets where last quarter we minted more unicorns than we have in history. We had, I think, 120 new billion-dollar-plus companies emerged in Q2 of 2021, which is a new record. Yeah, the private markets, I think, are really benefiting from these incredible valuations. So, for example, Robinhood goes out at a crazy valuation and then goes up. And so that excites the entire fintech market. By the way, the sector that's producing more unicorns than any other sector is, in fact, fintech. And when you think about it, it's just so obvious. We were talking

about Bitcoin in El Salvador. I had a dinner last night with the CEO of a company called Walla, which is, his name is Pierre Pala. Yeah, Walla. I believe it's U-A-L-A, which is 25% of people under the age of 30 in Argentina have this digital wallet called Wallet. It's basically a digital bank. And the unbanked, there's like 50 million unbanked people in Mexico. And you talk about remittance payments. And so everyone's trying to become the operating system of different parts of our life. And this category is so exciting because it's the classic innovator's dilemma where the operating system for JP Morgan is a ready teller and a bank branch, which are expensive and outdated. That's not how people want to interface with their digital financial

lives right now. So the fintech community is such an exciting place to be right now. And a lot of these IPOs, the really crazy ones, and a lot of these IPOs, they're really crazy ones. And a lot of these private markets are really about fintech. But in some, I think the SPAC market is already starting to feel some pain because some of these companies you are really reaching deep into the barrel around. Which one? Give me a good example. Oh, gosh. I don't know.

Virgin Galactic? Right, yeah. You know, Vice didn't do theirs, but the Weisses fell apart, as you recall. I mean, there's a – Remember Weiss. There's a – I mean, and I shouldn't pick on them because it's – that's actually a real company. It's worth something. It's just overvalued.

But some of these things, especially, you know, the market that's really overheated is the EV market. I mean, there's just so many different electric, you know, electric filling your world. Well, they were trying to find a way not to stay private, like to go to move out into the market for some advantage. That's what was happening. Those are investments that take for a long, a much longer amount of time. And you still have the big companies like Google and Amazon in that space with unlimited funds, right? And so they need to get out and differentiate themselves. And so if only to get bought, right? If only to get snapped up by these companies.

Well, it's, I mean, there's a lot there. Capital is a strategy, getting out, it's a great branding event. But if you look just at the EV market, seven of the companies have gotten out, they're just not doing well. And one of them's been accused of fraud. So I think the SP EV market, seven of the companies have gotten out. They're just not doing well. And one of them's been accused of fraud. So I think the SPAC market, I mean, regression to the mean is one of the most powerful forces in the universe. And SPACs are nothing new. They

generally underperform traditional IPOs because the filters aren't as fine there. They overperformed in 2020. My guess is they're going to start underperforming because you look at some of these things and you think, okay, it's got a great logo and it's interesting, but it's worth 60 times revenues. So this back market, I think you got to discern between traditional IPOs that the traditional guys are taking out. All right. So of the traditional IPOs, which ones do you like? Reddit, Discord, Instacart? Those are all ones that are very promising, I would say. Reddit's a really interesting one, I think. So is Discord. I don't know much about Discord.

I worry that Instagart is part of the menace economy engaging in regulatory arbitrage and arbitrage of people's time, although I think a lot of people would say flexibility is a great thing. Anyway, sort of of the Uber lift ilk. I think Reddit is a really interesting company because there's been so few,

if you think of it as a social media platform, there really hasn't been a social media platform of any size launched in the U.S. since Pinterest. And could Reddit be that new social media influence platform? So I'm excited about Reddit. It's been around a while, right? Yeah. Oh, yeah. It was owned by Condé Nast. I think it's got a really interesting financial history of ownership and things like that. I think a lot of companies are ready to go public. There's so many of them that have been funded and they can't stay private forever. And I think you're right. Robinhood was a real indicator that these things can do well. And I think the public is desperate for more investments,

right? More ability to publicly invest. So I think it's a good sign. And you're right about SPACs. I mean, it sort of kicks SPACs to the curb in a lot of ways, right? So the SPACs are the sort of second-class citizens of this. Well, this was going to be a better prediction, but you're talking about private companies. I don't think they filed, but I think SpaceX is going to be worth more than Tesla. I think Tesla is going to head in the wrong direction save that save that for your production anyways well that won't be my prediction for this episode we'll be chit-chatting with elon musk about space you're excited what i'm code in a couple weeks i know that's that's a big get for you um you asked me what i'm excited we're going to talk a lot about space

what i'm an investor in a company called Better Mortgage that has taken out all the friction out of mortgages and then splits kind of the cost savings. I think it did 1.2 billion this year. It's going to do 1.2 billion and it's profitable and it's spacking with SoftBank. And the key to the whole thing is that you want to be able to finance your pipe. So I'm excited about that one that's coming out. So there's a lot. I mean, I think it's just, you have to be, I don't want to say you have to be more discerning because you always want to be discerning, but the market is beginning to say, okay, just going public isn't enough. There was a SPAC that went out last month that was off 20% on its first day. It's starting. What do you think of Reddit? Discerned.

I think it's a very, I've interviewed the CEO many times. I know the other founder, Alex Ohanian, very well. Yes. They certainly clean themselves up more than other, they're small, they're small.

You know, it's a small social network. It really is. Even though I think it had, it had the history of some really terrible situations on that platform. But I do think it's a super, I think it's the history of some really terrible situations on that platform. But I do think it's a super, I think it's a really interesting company in general. And I think they're much more thoughtful, even though they haven't been in the past necessarily.

I think Discord as a platform is really interesting. Do you use Reddit? A lot of people are using it. I do use Reddit. I use it for different things. When I'm doing more research. I don't spend my time like chit-chatting away with people about whatever anything, right? I just think it's a really interesting.

I think people, I think alternates to Facebook are interesting. I'm looking at a lot of those. What are the alternates to current social media? Even as some of the social media sites, you know, Twitter's really doubling down on community, this thing they're doing. I think innovation in social media is really interesting. Obviously, fintech is much more financially lucrative. Doubling down on the metaverse because Mark Zuckerberg's realized that the real world gets in the way of his attention graph. Are you in the metaverse? Are you excited about the metaverse? Fuck the metaverse. Yeah, I agree with you.

I get the point. I think he's just rehashing an old idea. It's a very old idea. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we get back, we're going to talk about Google's latest legal headache and also take a listener mail question. By the way, Scott, that listener mail question we got with George Hahn was an interesting voice. He was from Albania, France. Definitely, Bertrand.

I loved watching your face. I fooled you, didn't I? I fooled you. Not for a second. I totally fooled you. For a New York. I totally fooled you. You totally didn't.

We were completely aware. Did I give it away when I said the French-Belgian-Albanian border? Didn't that, shouldn't I have given it away? Albanian really did. That's wrong. Albanian was the end of your reign as a terrible expression of masculine we enjoyed it we enjoyed it anyway we're going to be back in a second fox creative this is advertiser content from zell

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with a commitment to an ethical approach that puts humanity first. To learn more, visit anthropic.com slash Claude. That's anthropic.com slash Claude. Scott, we're back with our second big story. The Justice Department is preparing another suit against Google, this one aimed at the ad tech business. Google faces antitrust suits from state's attorneys general and private plaintiffs. Attorney General Merrick Garland may file the suit before Cantor. Jonathan Cantor has confirmed his assistant AG. This would sidestep conflict of interest issues. You know, all these companies are trying to claim anyone who's been critical of them is a conflict of interest. is a conflict of interest. So what thinks you? These are moving forward, obviously, and FTC refiled on Facebook,

I think, while you were away. Where do you imagine this is going? Or is it going to be a slow slog to nowhere? I think you've summarized it perfectly in that this is coming. It's just going to come a lot slower than we think, right? And people like me who kind of take a rough shot,

cliff notes, you know, give me the headline news, breakups, immediately go to the easy stuff and say, oh, they should spend YouTube. People who are more thoughtful about this, I know an analyst in London named Richard Kramer who has this company called Arette, he's very thoughtful and very smart about this stuff, says the real problem is around their acquisition of DoubleClick and essentially Google and the digital marketing sector is a buyer, a seller, and the market maker. So if you had a farmer-

This goes back to the Obama administration? That's when this happened. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, but people say Obama was basically bought off by Google and decided to leave alone. That he had the same unholy alliance with Eric Schmidt that Trump had with Mark Zuckerberg. Anyway, they all have their unholy alliances. But if someone, a farmer, the farmer, the person buying the wheat and the market maker were all the same person, you think, well, that's probably going to end up in higher bread prices. And so that's what we have here. But most thoughtful people say this is the right place to zero in on from a true legal antitrust viewpoint. So I think it's going to happen. I just wonder if it's a year or 10 years. Yeah, but Facebook has a similar, I mean, it's sort of a duopoly.

And interestingly, there's a lot coming together. Apple, I think that case is going to be decided allegedly this week. The judge had talked about mid-September, the Epic case. Obviously, Apple went out of its way to settle with some developers around its app store, although some people thought it was weak sauce in terms of trying to get ahead of the problems that they're going to face. From a regulatory point of view, the FTC is looking at blocking the Amazon MGM deal.

That's another one that's right there. Amazon was buying the Vaughn Library, et cetera, et cetera. Do you think that's going to go through or not? I'm curious what you think on that. Well, apparently, they're looking about blocking it. Do you think that goes through? I through or not? I'm curious what you think on that. Well, apparently they're looking about blocking it. Do you think that goes through? I don't know why it wouldn't. Like, you know, one of the things you hate to say is like, look, they're really big, but there's plenty of competition in the space, right?

Although, you know, the FTC has a problem here. Like, if they don't block it, they look like they're pushovers, right, in the things they're talking about. If they do block it and they don't have a case, they look like they're pushovers right in the things they're talking about if they do block it and they don't have a case they look like idiots if they lose um i don't quite know what why they shouldn't allow this one um obviously lena khan is going to be more anti amazon because she's talked about that but in this space space, I think that's hugely competitive. I like in the streaming market thing. I think any case is not going to win in court.

Like, why would you throw yourself up against a wall? Yeah, it's going to lose in court. It's going to lose in court. Yeah, the middle ground. There's no middle ground. Yeah, usually with a middle ground, they can say, OK, to save face,

we want you to sell the cartoon network and then we'll approve it or something. It's like they can't say we'll sell the Bond franchise. I agree with you that Amazon has, Amazon will say, well, in media, we have less than 2% share of streaming or whatever they'll say, right? But at the same time, if a company has so much market power that results in a stock price where they can outbid anyone for any asset they want, that creates market power, which is the old Brandesian antitrust test that says that's unfair. If any traditional media player can't even show up to the bidding table because they can monetize it by subsidizing these purchases through other markets, whether it's cloud, then you end up with anti-competitive market power.

And the reality is Viacom was looking at this, Disney was looking at this, and none of them could justify the price that Amazon can pay. And at some point, Amazon just looks at every media company, every commerce company and says, well, maybe it makes sense at this price, maybe it doesn't, but I'll tell you what, it makes sense to never let anyone do anything resembling a strategic acquisition because we outbid them, because we have the currency to do it, because we have such incredible market power in the market, in the capital market. So I think if you look at it through a consumer lens and a share lens, the argument traditional antitrust doesn't show up. But Lena Kahn looks at stuff through a market power lens. Yeah, but this is too much of a competitive market. I mean, there's a really

interesting quote in Axios. The mere fact that she's criticized a lot of things about Amazon, I would hope, wouldn't mean that she would just then have to, by rote, oppose anything Amazon would do. That would be a real miscarriage of justice. I would tend to agree with that. You can't just say- That's an interesting thought. That's an interesting thought.

Just because it's concentrated. Here, it is concentrated. They should be able to buy some things. Like, I don't, I just some things like i don't i just don't i don't know and you know me i'm like take them to jail all of them you know but i don't in this case i think it's um just because the progressives want to make a they think they're it's a stupid strategy to attack everything and you're losing court and so what's the point of that you're saying it would be symbolic but not justified but not legally it's not even good

symbolic i you know i think if you're any kind of reasonable person You're saying it would be symbolic but not justified, but not legally. It's not even good symbolic. I think if you're any kind of reasonable person, you're like, well, there's kind of like a lot of streaming competition. Why would you – they can't – they'll argue that they can lock consumers into the platform. But there's another really good quote by someone who backs Amazon here. Amazon here. Amazon will no more have a monopoly over James Bond than Netflix has a supposed monopoly over Stranger Things, said Adam Kovacevic, who I've seen before around founder of the industry group Chamber of Progress, which counts Amazon among its partners. It's going to be very difficult to make a case surrounding the facts. I would agree.

They should be able to buy this. I missed you, Kara. I'm sitting here looking at you, and it just struck me that I missed you. How have you been? Good. How have you been? Good. You haven't asked. Yeah, how was your August? How was your August? Busy. I was working all the time. I was working on my book. I was working on this. I was getting nice

deal. I was trying to meet you. Your memoir? New dates on this show, in case something happened to you. You know, I was working away. And I have my lovely family. Everything's going well there. Everyone's good? The Golden Child had to go to school. The But, I was working away and I have my lovely family. Everything's going well there. Everyone's good. The Golden Child had to go to school. The Butcher,

the Giant, and the Golden Child as I like to refer to them. They're all at the house. They're all at the house. That sounds like a good Fellini movie. Yes. The Butcher,

the Giant, and the Golden Child. The Giant. Playing at an independent cinema. I took the Giant back to San Francisco speaking of which. He's very, I have to say,

we spent a lot of time talking about tech. By the way, oh my God, he's reading The Four. He kept talking at me. No, but he was talking at me about these issues, and I said, read this book by Scott Galloway. And he's halfway through it, and he already has some thoughts.

He thought you were tough on them. I know you said you weren't tough enough on it. I said he thought he could be tougher. He wants to talk to you about it. Well, okay. He has some thoughts. All right. So, anyway, he was reading your book.

Because I am scared of him. Yes, well you should be, because he's taller than ever. I think he's like grown to more interest. He's huge, he's huge. And now he's sort of filling it. Literally the reason you worked through August is you need a food budget of like $11 million. It's true.

I can't imagine what it takes. Do you literally just shovel food in front of him and say, okay, have at it. He and I spent 10 days in San Francisco together, and he ate four meals a day, like four to five meals a day, and kept eating. It was crazy. I just gave him the credit card at the end and said,

just go outside and get some food. Anyway, but he is reading your book, and he has a lot of questions for you. Okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question. This one came in via email. You've got, you've got. I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hi, team. So many Silicon Valley companies have left for Texas. Can you explore

what this means for recruitment given the new Texas anti-abortion law? I can't imagine that Apple, Google, Facebook employees in Austin are happy with the new law or the decision to leave California if they did so. Employees at tech firms are young and generally left to center when it comes to politics. That's not actually true, Nina. this can't be good for enticing folks to move to texas regards nina nina they're not as liberal as you think they are but nonetheless i i find this really interesting a lot of people who had moved had been crowing about moving to florida or texas or wherever are now you know especially two things covid and these shitty laws um which are just, you know, anti-human as far as I'm concerned. And it's, they're really, I'm like enjoying yourself there in the 4,000 degree

weather, hurricanes, COVID, everything, like, and including people who've moved just even in California to Tahoe and other places. I think they're finding it a little more problematic than their grand departure from Silicon Valley. But I think it's difficult. I think it's going to be difficult. Austin's a wonderful city and very progressive, but still in the middle of Texas. So what do you think, Scott? This is the impact it'll have on people moving to Texas. Absolutely none. Absolutely none. People talk a big game. And the reality is people choose where to live for much different reasons. When I moved to Florida, I consider myself a very politically conscious person.

I moved there 10 years ago. I moved for a lot of reasons, but my in-laws were there. I'm one of the grandparents involved in my kids' lives. My youngest son, and the story ends well here, but at the time he was speech delayed, and we got locked out of 7 for 7 pre-K in Manhattan. I thought, that's it, I'm out of here. Cost of living. And the reality is Texas, between the lifestyle and the cost of living, the low taxes, a burgeoning economy, is just an outstanding cocktail in terms of lifestyle. And people don't go, well, there's a nicer life, but there are legislatures who might be voted out in two years, hopefully. They want to take women back to old Spain.

I'm not moving. Said no one ever. Roseanne Arquette goes on Twitter and says, I just gave up a movie role because it's in Texas. And I thought my first thought, of course, was, wow, Roseanne Arquette still does movies. But anyways, no one cares. The reality is it's a bunch of posturing. It's not going to, and I think it's terrible. I hope that it helps turn Texas from red to purple to blue, but it's not going to impact. You're going to see just as many U-Haul one ways into Texas this week as two weeks ago. All right. Okay. That's interesting. I do

think people are more concerned. I think you're correct is that some of this stuff, because not very many companies spoke up about Texas, by the way. Bumble was one of them. They're based in Austin. They created a relief fund to help pride abortions. But one of the things that's interesting about this is the COVID thing is not, that is what I'm hearing from a lot of people who have moved there. They're like, wait a minute. And they don't quite know what to do about it because most of the cases right now in this country are in Texas, Florida, and Missouri, which is interesting. And I think that's more problematic for them. Like, what am I doing here?

Like, this is not what I thought. And I do think it matters where you want to live in terms of politics. But I do think it's more as will these states become more purple where there's much more of a differentiation. This law is really quite appalling in so many ways and very clever also, unfortunately. South by Southwest, you and I are going to crash an after-hours club at the Silverado, where we're going to desperately seek Susan and talk about our New York stories, because we have nowhere to run. But you know what? Hope floats. By the way, those seven of the 10 best Rosanna Arquette films, I feel bad about. She's a wonderful actress.

Don't insult her. Anyway, I think it's an interesting time. I think it will be interesting. You know, Beto might run for governor. There's a lot of activity in Florida, although DeSantis is popular. I think this COVID thing is not great for him. I think a lot of middle of the road people are like, this isn't what I signed up for. They like living there. They like the low taxes. So I think it's probably more complex, although I have heard from a lot of people who are moving back to the Bay Area, for sure. There's a lot more lot of people who are moving back to the bay area for sure there's a lot of people moving back yeah they like miss the food they miss the they just it's just not the same it's not it's not and i have to tell you when alex and i went back it's so

beautiful there it is so beautiful city and it's not you know when you get there one of the things that really struck me is it's not it's not it's better than when I left. Like there was always a homeless problem. There was always a crime problem. There's a huge crime problem in DC where I live, you know? And so it wasn't, it was definitely not as bad as I, as has been painted by the media, 100%. It just isn't. And I went all over the city, by the way, I walked in every part of the city. And there's this areas that are still bad or still bad. And but they're not as bad as they were when I left. They just aren't. So and I didn't get every square. That's interesting. You think things have gotten better? There's not so many douchebags. the more alternative, it feels like a more diverse

city than before. It does. There's not as many buses rolling around, you know, those big tech buses. I thought San Francisco looked fantastic, actually, comparatively to when I left. It looks great. I haven't been back in two years and I really enjoyed myself. It's still

a stunning and creative place. Here's the thing stunning, it's a stunning and creative place. Here's the thing. Gavin Newsom will probably win in the next election. So that's another thing. Like these tech guys tried to, you know, take him out.

And, you know, you never know. Larry Elder is doing rather well, surprisingly well. This guy who's a talk show host and stuff. So it looks like he's not, but it's interesting

the tech bros are the ones, some of the tech bros tried to take him out and it didn't quite work. And then another tech bro, Reed Hastings, is the one supporting him and some others.

So it's just an interesting, California is going to be very, if he wins. The whole recall thing, I mean, initially the notion was the right notion that people should have

democratic input and off cycles if things get bad. But this has absolutely backfired on everyone. So let me get this. A governor can get 49% and some whack job who gets 13% becomes governor? I mean, that's not, that's democratic.

And also I thought these tech guys who are really dissatisfied with San Francisco and have been beating the drum, I'm like, Larry Elder wins. It's like, okay, guys, did you really think this shit through? Yeah, because of Dianne Feinstein, too, by the way. FYI, she's quite old. If she dies, Larry Elder would be able to appoint her.

In the short time, he would be governor. So it would be because of him. I'm hopeful. You know and like Governor Newsom. I know and like him. I do. I think he made some missteps, but, you know, hello. Hello. I mean, like him. I do. I think he made some missteps, but, you know, hello. Oh, certainly. I mean, come on. Come on. Anyway, that was a fun question. We want to hear more.

If you've got a question you're curious about, go to nymag.com slash pivot and submit it for the show. All right, Scott, one more quick break. And now I want this prediction. I want more illumination on your prediction. It better be a good one. And by the way, since you've so well rested, if it's not good, you're going to have to do another one. I just don't get it. Just wish someone could do the research on it. Can we figure this out? Hey, y'all. I'm John Blenhill, and I'm hosting a new podcast at Vox called Explain It To Me. Here's how it works. You call our hotline with questions you can't quite answer on your own.

We'll investigate and call you back to tell you what we found. We'll bring you the answers you need every Wednesday starting September 18th. So follow Explain It To Me, presented by Klaviyo. by Klaviyo. The Capital Ideas Podcast now features a series hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin. Through the words and experiences of investment professionals, you'll discover what differentiates their investment approach, what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea? Invest 30 minutes in an episode today.

Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Okay, Scott, we're back. Next up, give us this week's prediction. My predictions are really rooted in optimism. And I came up with them both this morning, and that is I do think immunities are kicking in. I'm trying to find silver linings in this crisis because every once in a while at night when I'm alone, a moment of reality hits me, and I literally become very anxious and can only fix it with Zacapa and edibles. So I'm trying to

get into my gratitude practice. And one of the immunities that's kicking in, and sometimes out of crisis, whether it's the fires in London that spawns incredible architecture or investing in Germany and Japan and turning them into great allies after the crisis of the 20th century that was World War II, I do think there's some really wonderful things happening. And these are just two minor, not two minor ones, but two things I've noticed just in the last 24 hours. The first is that in response to this ridiculous, abhorrent, send women back to the 7th century,

let's turn Americans into vigilantes narking on each other, known as this ridiculous legislation in Texas, I think it's going to bring a lot of warranted attention to family planning technology. into vigilantes narking on each other, known as this ridiculous legislation in Texas, I think it's gonna bring a lot of warranted attention to family planning technology. And a company called Hey Jane that helps women with family planning using the anonymity and the technology,

and also the regulatory arbitrage and non-geographic standard notion of technology, I think that's a really interesting idea. I actually reached, I tried to find her on LinkedIn and said, I'd like to invest in this. There's another startup called Avia, I think it's A-A-V-I-A, and I met the founder and she's an incredibly impressive person that's trying to focus on women's health. Because of course the first kind of famous tech health app is called HIMS, right? Yeah, HIMS and HERS, right.

Just like we have three- They have HERS. Yeah. And then they like, oops, let's call it and hers. Yeah. And which is kind of reflects or mimics medical research to begin with. Like, let's focus on heart disease for men. And then that gets over fun. Anyways, I think it's an exciting time to be in the women's health space. And I think that they could address some of these issues. And I think they're going to start getting a lot more attention to these companies. Hey, Jane and Avia, two small startups that I think are going to get more attention. And then my

second prediction is I'm just so excited about this. Forbes came out with their annual ranking of schools. And these rankings are so frighteningly important for education because young people, young people love brands because they're insecure and stupid. And so they need help picking something. So they go, okay, I got into Michigan and Michigan State. They're not smart enough to go, where would I be happier? Where do my parents live? They defer to the brand because they're insecure as they should be and don't know what they want.

And that's why brands and marketers love young people because they defer to brands. And the most powerful pulse in brands and universities around a quarter of a million dollar purchase is the brand or specifically the rankings. These rankings are so powerful. And schools live and die by them, right? I mean. A hundred percent.

And this is why they are so awful and so corrupt. One of the biggest signals or inputs around the methodology of rankings is admissions rates, specifically who they do not admit. So you go up in the rankings as you reduce your admissions. When you literally ignore your role as a public servant and take UCLA from 70% admissions rate that lets in the son of single immigrant mothers who aren't qualified, i.e. yours truly, and take it down to 12% this year, they go up in the rankings. And Harvard continues to let in 1,400 people from 55,000 applicants when they sit on the endowment, the GDP of Costa Rica.

And it's led to some very unhealthy outcomes where we in academia have lost the script and think that it's great to create despair and misery across middle-class households with good kids who don't get into good schools. I like you're still sticking with this one. Keep going. So Forbes, Forbes, the gangsters at Forbes, thank you, Forbes. Thank you, visionary Forbes, says, you know what one of our inputs is going to be? The percentage of kids on Pell Grants.

Because access to the transformative opportunity that is higher ed should be an input into a ranking. And they found that two of the top 10 schools, number one, Berkeley, I think number six, UCLA, are UC schools, and nine of the top 25, including four UC schools, are public universities who said, you know what? Our job isn't to be fucking Hermes. It's to move society forward. This is huge for education, that the most important signal around funding, endowments, applications, these rankings is now a reflection of the value add of the civic responsibility these schools reflect. So my prediction is that we're about to enter

an incredible disruption in brand equity in universities where people realize that, you know what? If you're rejecting 96% of your applicants, that's not a good thing. That's not a good thing. Anyways, my predictions, more attention to some wonderful startups focusing on women's health and the greatest, the brand, if you will, the brand equity industrial complex around universities is about to be disrupted. And we're going to see some of the great public universities that haven't lost their mission accelerate to the top. You're going to have six or seven of the top 10 schools from a brand equity

standpoint, not be these people posing as Hermes. It's going to be great public universities that every year try and expand their admissions. Those are my predictions. I have some comments and I'd like your comments. One is, I'll start with the last one. Men fall behind in college enrollment. Women still. Oh, my God. Did you see this? Give up on college.

I just feel lost. This was an amazing piece in the Wall Street Journal. By the way, Louis Swisher's taking a year off. He doesn't quite know the value of college, and he doesn't want to waste my money. It's interesting. He's going to work. He's going to work this year.

He wants to. Did you see the numbers? 40% men, 60% women. You think, well, that's not that bad. So, you know what that means when you show up to college? There are 50% more women there. Yeah. And the thing that really bothered me about that article is the anti-intellectualism that men feel. I just feel lost. Men give up on college. Let me just tell you, I've heard this from my son. feel lost, men give up on college. Let me just tell you, I've heard this from my son. I've heard this from my son, and he works really hard, by the way. He works 60, 70 hours a week. He loves to

work. And it's similar thoughts, let me just say, similar thoughts. What do you say to that? Well, one, they're questioning the value. Two, they're oftentimes, quite frankly, not as qualified. Boys mature later. Seven out of 10 high school valedictorians are girls. So they're not as qualified usually. But also, and this will be a little bit controversial, I'm not sure young men necessarily want to go to an institution where a large theme is as a white male or as a male, you're the problem. I'm not sure that's his issue. But go ahead. Go ahead.

Yeah, but it's not what I'd call... I mean, you want to talk about identity politics, ground zero for it, where we start with, all right, oppressors over here, oppressed over here, go to a university. So I think they're doing a value trade-off. I don't think they see it as welcoming. And also to be blunt, some of this is a good thing. You know, the fact that more women and more, who are in most instances, quite frankly, more qualified are over-indexing, maybe that's not a bad thing, but there is a crisis among young men who are overlooked

because the general viewpoint is if you're a young male, the world, you know, the world is yours for the taking. And then we have priced ourselves, and it is, and we have priced ourselves, and it is, and we have priced ourselves universities out of a value equation here. I think he doesn't quite know the value of it. I don't think he's bothered by any political thing. I think that's something that the hot take hacks of Substack enjoy writing about. But I think he doesn't- Hot take hacks.

I just, I'm sorry. Hot take hacks. It's the same story over and over again. Like, poor white men. I'm sorry. They're not poor, and they're still white. So I think they're doing fine. I think he just doesn't understand the value. I thought this, the kind of lost, I think, was like, what is the point of this?

And not so much, he works hard. So it's not like he doesn't want to work. It's just an interesting trend. That's one. The second thing is France is going to offer. By the way, I know Louis better than you know Louis. You know why Louis dropped out or took a year off? Why?

You know why he took a year off? To be with his mama. Because of COVID. What? Because of COVID. Could be. Send him, not to NYU, send him to UCLA and football games and sorority rush and beer pong. No, no. He likes working. He's like his mother. I didn't like college myself. I did not. I did

not like college. I like working, and he likes working. didn't like college myself. I did not. I did not like college. I like working. And he likes working. It's really interesting. It's a Swisher trait. Second thing, France to offer – he doesn't want to go to football games and, you know, kick back a beer. He just doesn't. It's not him.

Anyway, France to offer free contraceptive to women under 25. Think about that. France is doing that. And meanwhile, Mexico decriminalized abortion, and here we are in our country. I love that they're our new role model for progressive liberalism. I know, right? But the free contraception to women under 25

was really interesting because they're seeing these rates tick up and et cetera, et cetera. And so just, you know, it's just such a difference here. But I do like this idea of these companies. I think that, can you do one more thing? Can you illuminate on your space thing

that you just said? You sort of said I was going to make it a prediction and then you dropped it. What was your- No, I just, look, I think SpaceX

is an incredible company that's well managed and has incredible prospects and I think it's going to soak up the space market. My sense is they're the only space company I follow

that's hit every milestone. They have three and a half billion dollars in Pentagon contracts, and Jeff Bezos is running around with his hair on fire saying it was unfair. It strikes me that they're just outperforming and out-executing everybody else. And people get very excited. And then I think the other ones are just going to all seed a ton of market capitalization.

I think SpaceX is really exciting and really well operated. And I think Tesla is just, again, great company. I love the product. It's dramatically overvalued. And then the quarter of a trillion dollar transfer event that's going to take place in the next 12 months is when Tim Cook gets on stage and pulls a silk curtain off a car with an Apple logo on it. From that point over the next 180 days, a quarter of a trillion dollars in market cap is going to transfer from Tesla to Apple. We keep trying to whack that Tesla. Keep trying. Well, wait till it happens. Wait till it happens. At some point, I'll be right. There will be a recession. Economists have picked nine of the last three recessions. Anyways, I'm sorry. Go ahead. Yeah, I know. October cliff, whatever the heck.

SpaceX, in three years, SpaceX is worth more than Tesla. All right. You'll keep trying on that. I think you're right on this, SpaceX. I think Tesla is the hill you continue to die on. And you do die on it over and over. Let's kill him again. Let's kill him again.

Is he dead? No, he's not dead enough. I'm Jon Snow. I'm coming back. The Red Queen's going to bring me back to life. I hate to say it, but I'm glad you're back. I liked all my dates. I liked my dating.

I liked our open marriage, but I really am glad you're back. I'm up for that. I'm seriously up for that. As long as I'm the one that gets to be open. We have a lot to do this month. We have a lot of shows. We've got PivotCon coming up and COVID. Have we announced that?

Are we public? Yeah, whatever. We don't care. Miami in February. You have a lot of jobs at Code. We've got PivotCon coming up in COVID suit before. Have we announced that? Are we public? Are we out on that? Yeah, yeah, whatever. We don't care. Miami in February. And Code. You have a lot of jobs at Code. You have a lot of jobs at Code.

We have a great lineup. It's still going forward. I want you to behave there. Oh, you're going to love a dog in LA. You're going to love a dog. I'm a little bit worried, honestly. I stay at the Beverly Hills Hotel. I wear a pink robe.

I put on big Aristotle Onassis glasses. I eat a Cobb salad, and I look at strangers with a cigarette, and I go, Jackie, marry me. I make you very happy woman. People are like, is he talking to me? Is he talking to me? This will be such an exciting interview. Marry me, Jackie. I make you very happy woman.

Preet will be there. We have a lot of people coming. Preet is coming. You and he are good. Governor Barrera. Talk about, I am sick of being used as a way station. He's here for like a hot minute. He is here for literally a hot minute.

In any case, it will be really fun. Anyway, I'm glad you're back. That's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday for more. We've got a lot of interviews. We've got a lot of things happening. And as always, you can submit a question for the show at nymag.com slash pivot. Scott, you know what?

You're going to read us out. So let's go. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Ernie Intertot, engineered this episode. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. Or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next Friday for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

I hate myself and I have erectile dysfunction, but I'm your dog chasing down balls and bringing them back with slobber and insight. We will see you on Tuesday. Kara, I missed you. I'm glad you are doing well. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere? And you're making content that no one sees. And it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot.

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