Pivot - Trump Bullies Allies, Powell Stays Put, and Kalshi Faces Criminal Charges

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

Kara and Scott unpack Trump lashing out at U.S. allies over Iran, rising oil prices, and the Pentagon's new spending request. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he'll stay on as Fed Chair until his successor is in place, while Bob Iger passes the Disney CEO baton (again). Plus, Meta’s metaverse future, OpenAI refocusing, and Kalshi facing criminal charges.Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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depressed meet angry. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Callow. Scott, have you recovered from South by Southwest?

I'm still basking in the glow. I thought it was great. It was good. Yeah, I had a good time. In the end, it was really, fun. What was your favorite highlight of it? A favorite highlight. Besides our time together.

The way Representative Tala Rica described masculinity, and he talks about his father, I guess, used to come home on Sunday and immediately change, and then mow their lawn, and then without ever talking about it, just went next door and mowed the lawn of this

old ladies. And he described that as... Yeah, that really struck you. You mentioned it at the show that way. Did you ever mow people's lawns? I used to mow lawns for money, but I didn't do it. I showed up to the house before I mowed a lawn and said, hey, seven bucks in Ohio, and I'll borrow your lawn. Oh, wow.

And I had a manual lawnmower, and I was all of about 120 pounds pushing a manual mower around. So you were not taught to mow people's lawns. No, I was taught to make money. Yeah. My dad was like, go make money. Go make money. Interesting. I think jobs are huge for teens.

Yeah, yeah. My son got a job at a taco truck last summer. It was so good for him. You know, so many. Anyways, I think chores, chores, jobs, and sports. I mean, anyways. Anyway, the reason I'm asking is because it's introspection. I mean, you're introspection.

Oh, I've gotten much more introspective. Today I'm here in Tulum. I've had some time to really contemplate. And I've decided to, it's time for me at this age. It's time for life is finite. It's time for me to start to start living my dream. So I'm going to start showing up for tests. I'm not prepared for naked.

Well, as always, so you're in the Mark Andreessen School. Have you heard about this situation? Mark, let me just say what it is. Mark Andreessen, who I really don't like anymore. I didn't like that much then, but he's really become such a troll. He said on the, he's a famous, he was part of the Netscape Browser. thing. I wouldn't say he was the only person. He did take a lot of credit. Important entrepreneur in Silicon Valley and et cetera. Now he's a venture capitalist. On the founder's podcast with

David Senra, he said, my goal is zero introspection as little as possible. Four hundred years ago, it would never occur to anyone to be introspective, like the whole idea. I mean, just all the modern concepts around introspection and therapy and all the things that kind of result from that are kind of manufacturing in 1910s, 1920s. This is very much in line with him being an expert on everything. He used to lecture me about things he knew nothing about a lot. All it says to me is this man is in desperate need of therapy. He's just trying to be like, I don't think about anything. And I find it very dystopian, and I find him dystopian in general. But this idea that introspection is a weakness, again, is not masculine. It's not feminine. It's not human, I think, in some way.

Yeah, I think it's important to occasionally, you know, do some sort of kind of pondering. Ask yourself if you could only bring one thing to a Desert Island, what would you bring? And I decided the answer is I wouldn't go. No. I need edibles, streaming media, and my plane care. No, look, in all seriousness, it's as if these guys, Allman and Andreessen, hired a publicist, the brightest comsperson in the world and said, How do we convince humanity?

We're bad for humanity. And this notion that technology requires less energy to get to a point of critical thinking than a human is just so nihilist and so weird. And then introspection is how we move forward as a species. I was like, Socrates, Plato, Marcus Aurelius. Like, it's been around. He's like, oh, it's just the 1910s.

He's so ignorant, like the idea. Introspection is a critical element of all philosophy going back. Also, by the way, Jesus test the Bible. It's all about thinking about. Reflecting on how you become a better. Introspection is why we have the Marshall Plan and why people reconnect with their family members. Introspection is how you try to become a better person and realize the errors of your actions and that your actions have ramifications and what can you do to leave the world a better place. And it's indicative, again, of this far-right performative, I won't even call it masculinity, but macho, that I don't care, I just plow ahead

because I'm such a baller. It's just like, okay. It's crazy. I don't, like, my grandmother didn't introspect a lot. She grew up in the Depression, right? She didn't wonder if she was happy. I think she was probably could have been happier, right? That kind of thing. And there's, there's an element to that, but this idea, this, the idea of thoughtfulness has not been around since the dawn of fucking time drives me crazy. The second thing is, look, this guy has a very famous, doesn't speak to his family, right? Like, there's all manner of fucked upness that is buried, very deep in this particular person who has influence on other, who has massive influence on everybody else. And, you know, he's like, he's an emotional, I don't want to use, you know,

he's just a tiny little man from a, from a soul point of view, like extraordinarily small. And I find it really just bragging about it is the last, is, you know, he's the one of that said we should fight more, like we should physically fight, like as if he could get in a fight with anybody, he'd lose in a second. But it's just, you're right, they're trying to be villains or something. By the way, the main villain in the Marvel movies is quite introspective, FYI. Well, I would argue that probably, I mean, people would say the greatest mind of the 20th century is Einstein, but they should take a page in the playbook of the greatest, arguably

the greatest technologist of the, 20th century, and that was someone who not only had a vision for technology, but could bring together people to, what was at that moment, develop and deploy the most important technology in history, or at least the most profound, and that was Oppenheimer, and he was hugely introspective. So was Feinstein, if you read some of these. They were hugely introspective. They were really worried about what, about the ramifications of their actions and how they could spend the rest of their lives trying to, you know, they didn't just say, The introspection isn't some AI guy who vests his shares and then scares the shit out of the world as he pieces out to the Cote d'Zo.

That is not introspection. Bill Gates, for all the shit Bill Gates is getting, and a lot of it is warranted. He is a, he decided I have become the wealthiest person in the world at that moment. I am smart. What could I do with my resources to impact millions of people? And he started distributing, he decided, I think I can stop malaria in a continent. that is introspection. Yeah, anyway, it's led to a lot of very funny memes,

you know, Marcus Andronicus, and then nothing. It's called nothing. What a soulless, empty person. And this is not where we should be getting clues as we go forward. That's just my feeling. And I think one of the more damaging figures from in terms of training young men at Silicon Valley is this guy. He's not someone to follow. Let me just say, I've known him since he was very young.

and he's progressed negatively and backwardly in a way that's really quite depressing. Oddly enough, in relation, and then we'll finish up on this, I had lunch at South by Southwest with Mark Cuban. What a person who was developed in a really, he was telling me all about his cost plus, the passion around it. I just was like. He also looks great, by the way. He looks great, yeah. He's eating clams. That's another story.

Oh, Jesus. Did he bored you with that story? I had to suffer through that. Did he buys on Amazon? Yeah, let's not get it. to it. We'll have him on to talk about it at some point. He's trying to get protein, but it was funny. If oysters means GLP1, I believe it. I'm seriously, I met with him and Michael Dell, and they're both claiming that they're playing a lot of Padell. I'm like, your old you could eat you right now.

Padell, my ass. Fidel. Anyway, they, I just was like, I had a wonderful talk about prescription drugs, about life, about his kids. Like, what, it was such a difference. Like, he is the opposite of the market. Seems like a good man trying to have value. Yeah, exactly. Anyway, we have to move on, but Mark, honestly, stopped all of you. Alex Carp said a number of stupid things. Like, stop talking all of you.

Stop talking. Because what you say is nonsensical and actually makes you look so stupid and pathetic that it's, I'm just here to help you on that issue. Anyway. But look, even if you're religion, you're supposed to reflect on some of it as some are crypto. If Jesus, if Jesus could feed the world with two fishes and a loave, you know, if you really think about it, that's top us. I mean, peace out, peace out.

All right, let's move on. I can't do any better than that. I can't do any better than that. Okay. As of this recording, oil prices, in the more, in a segue, in a more, in a more, in a more, in a more real situation, prices of oil is over $19. dollars a bear are at one point following attacks on energy sites in the Gulf. President Trump has been lashing out at U.S. allies this week demanding they send warships to help secure

the strait before moves. The response has been, quote, global raspberry, as one analyst put it. We're seeing also the first resignation of this war. Counterterrorism official Joe Kent stepped down saying Iran posed no imminent threat. Of course, he went on Tucker Carlson, and he's of that ill. He has some problems himself. But nonetheless, he quickly went on Tucker Carlson discuss his departure because this is like the train, the right ring maga train, if you're going in one direction. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is asking the White House to approve $200 billion request for Congress to fund the Iran war. I think of an entire, I think Joe Biden was 180 billion for like years long wars or whatever. Defense Secretary

Pete Hague says just said in a briefing that a number could move because it takes money to kill bad guys. Speaking of introspection, what an idiot. The next move, What happens here? Trump also said this week, by the way, that a former president told him he regretted not bombing them, but all the former living president's not saying that. So I guess he's talking to himself. I mean, they've denied it. Like, he's such a liar. It's astonishing, like what this guy does? Obviously, either cognitive or just a liar. I'm not sure. Where are you thinking? What are you things happening here now? Let's have a quick update. Well, I mean, the mother of all understatements is it's complicated. Look, I think the fatal flaw. the Trump administration is they don't recognize our power as a species and as a country, and that is, as powerful as we are, we're only a third of the world's GDP, but because we were seen as the good guys and innovators, and that we did embrace this notion that if we can make you wealthier and more peaceful, ultimately that wealth and peace will return home in the form of

you buying our trucks and being our ally, and we can put a military base there. And the operating system of 60 or 70% of the world was U.S. laws, military, flows of energy, general rule of law, even democracies, even laws and justice systems were based off the U.S. model. And to his lesser extent, the British model, it just got evolved. We were short of 2.0. And he's decided, no, with 30%, I can go out of it alone. And what he's found is all of a sudden he's one-third versus two-thirds. And this is just when my, you know, we warn my son not to take grapefruit juice into the living room with a brand-new couch. And he tells us, don't be an idiot, I can handle it.

And then he screams, Dad, I need help. And I know exactly what's happened? Yeah, he's spelled the grape juice. Well, what do you know? I'm going to do this unilaterally. I'm not going to go to the UN. I mean, Gulf One, George Bush put together a coalition of, I think, 31 countries. He got UN authorization, and he got the Allies to pay 62 of the $70 billion in costs. That war costs. And it great sacrifice for many of them. And, of course, he's been downplaying their sacrifice.

And they're now, like, literally saying no. And by the way, and if you come out of NATO, fine. Like, they're now at that point. I mean, you know, whatever. He asked China for help. And by the way, China's ships are flowing through. So the notion that he's going to, quote, unquote, an enemy or nemesis, going to people he's been really rude to. I mean, this is just, and they didn't anticipate that they wouldn't be able to count on their allies. Didn't anticipate the Iran pushback, the strength of the, I mean, he was advised by, by the way, pretty much. Stories coming out now are like, he was told this, he was told this, he was told they would do this, they would close this.

They would close the straightover moves. Like, everyone's leaking the shit out of things, which is really, I mean, what's interesting, I know it's the smallest part of it, but the lie about presidents was weird, was just weird. Like, why would you say that? And then they all say no. And it looks like it's a lie or he's talking to himself or whatever. The whole thing seems, like lies come out of his mouth every day now that are easily checkable, like easily checkable lies and that don't really worry.

And so something's going on. Something's happening in a way that's, I mean, I don't want to give him an excuse. Maybe he's just a malevolent prick, but it seems problematic that he's leading this coalition of the one. And also, when you hire incompetent conspiracy theorists, which is what Joe Kent is, I mean, this is very upsetting, for me as someone, you know, quite frankly, as a Jew,

and that is, he immediately said that basically, the largest military in the world in the United States, is being manipulated by Jews. And this just plays into a very anti-Semitic trope being fomented on the far right. And I don't doubt. Rogan, Megan Kelly. There's a bunch of them. Yeah, that this is all Jews' fault.

Yeah. That is just, that's what they were doing. That's not helpful. Yeah. So. It's one thing to be against the war, and I think there's some legitimate, like. Or to say Netanyahu has too much influence over Europe. I get it. No, I get it.

No, I mean, just saying, the Americaverse people can say we don't like wars, but they do always take it right into that. That was, that, Tucker Carlson's a dangerous person in that regard, I'll tell you. Oh, they're doing a victory lot. They're like the number, whatever, five at the, you know, in our intelligence unit is, is saying what, what Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson is saying that it's the Jews. We're being manipulated by the Jews. Yeah. Anyway. It's problematic. It's problematic. So what, so oil prices? What is, what actual impact is this going to have on the economy? It's a whole, it's immediate. I mean, unfortunately, in it does happen.

It hurts middle-income families and lower-income. Already, you're talking about an increase for every dollar increase at the pump, and it looks like we are going to have about a dollar increase. It's another $530 a year. And low-income families spend almost, get this, 20% of their income on home and auto energy costs. Yeah, and then the residual effects of food, everything, every single thing. Everything you touch is impacted.

Everything got to you using some form of fuel. or is consuming fuel. And it's going to probably spike inflation in additional 100 bips in the short run. So speaking of which, Jerome Powell says he'll stay on his Fed chair until his successor is confirmed by the Senate, even if that's after his terms expires. He has every right to.

It could be a while. The Senate hasn't even scheduled a hearing for Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh. Geopist Senator Tom Tillis, who I'm talking to next week, says he won't vote on confirmation until the DOJ investigation on Powell is over. They've been handed some court things, Janine Piro and the rest, around Powell for his part, and they're appealing it, I think. For his part, Powell also says he'll stay on his Fed governor, which I said he would. Remember I said this until the investigation is well and truly over.

This is, I thought he would do this. He looks like he ran out of Fox a long time ago. And well and truly over means he could stay as long as he is a while there on that Fed governor thing. I mean, as you noted, many times, enormous influence. So this is the opposite of what Trump wanted, and he's stuck with Powell. And Tillis, I can tell you, is not stopping at all, at all. I think if it had been a different president who demonstrated more grace to him,

I don't doubt he would have stepped down. Or if he'd said to him, listen, I want you to be my chief economic advisor. You know, I have even something more important for you, But keep in mind, as long as Jerome Powell is in the room, I've said this, there's how you think there's the governance structure, and then there's actually how boards and body politic works. And this is how, this is essentially a board of directors.

This is how they work. There's a bunch of them. In every board, there's 12 people, and there's two people who matter. There's the largest shareholder, which doesn't apply here. And then there's someone who's so fucking smart that everyone, They don't speak a lot. They listen a lot. But when they speak, everyone has a tendency to nod their head.

And that, tell me the, whatever it is, the other 11 governors are going to, when Jerome Powell says, you know, whatever, the chair is the person who. Well, he's going to run it. I don't think, I think Tillis isn't giving. I know Tillis isn't giving up. He said it. He's like, he, Tillis now suddenly, as you said, behind his balls. And he's like, no, I'm going to do the right thing for. He's very offended by the Jerome Powell thing.

I know that. So I think it's, he's a business person. He's a really well-work, he had a, you know, he was a, even though, you know, he sounds like he's like from the country. He's a smart guy. Very smart guy. He's very stuck on this. Powell not putting wars through. Obviously, he helped take down Christy Noem.

I think there's such a pushback, not just from our allies abroad, but here. And if you're someone like Tom Tillis and can stop this, you do it. Like, why not? What's the negative for him? There's nothing because he's now. because Trump pushed him out, essentially, of the Senate. And now he's an enormous position of power and influence the same thing. And so Powell is not going to bring rates down, by the way, especially with inflation up.

So Trump has gotten the opposite of everything he wanted. No, Calhry said there was a 99% likelihood they would not cut rates. But where I was headed was, I would bet 98% of the decisions in the Fed from the Board of Governors, regardless of who's in charge, regardless of who takes the mic, the new chair, whatever Jerome Powell said was probably the right move in that meeting is what they're going to do. This is the guy that had a Mary Lou Retton like stick the landing of the economy where he basically tamed inflation by 600 basis points while not going into recession. Like no one in economics, you know. I think Warsh is perfectly qualified, but Trump now has Jerome Powell forever, like, especially the dumb attack on his construct. I think another six or 12 years or something or whatever, basically until Powell dies.

And also, he's going to stay there as the head of it. It's just, anyway, it's, it's, good for him. Good for him. I love it. I think he is, I think he is, the first, the first Medal of Freedom recipient. Yeah, he's a hero. Democrats love to show that they're bipartisan. It'll probably be, Vice President Spence will be.

first one, and the second one will be Jerome Powell. Vice President Spence. Who's bruce? Pence. I'm sorry, Pence. Oh, Vice President Pence. Yeah. Oh, that's a good idea.

The two of them. Oh, that's brilliant. Pence does not get enough recognition. His legacy is going to age really well. Yes. Father. I like Father at this point. Father is actually said, yep.

Father and Powell. Oh, that'll work for me. Okay, Scott. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll say goodbye to the Metaverse. Support for the show comes. from Virgin Atlantic. It's one thing to catch a flight.

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They swear by it, literally. They call it a great fucking database. start building at MongoDB.com slash build. Scott, we're back with more news and meta is shutting down its VR Metaverse on June 15th. The legless people are gone. The VR social network Horizon Worlds never drew more than a couple, 100,000 active users a month. Some users reported that daily active users actually drop to under a thousand. Who are those people?

I want to meet those people. Over 70 billion was spent on the project over time. You have talked about this for a lot. long time. I never liked the Metaverse. So some breaking news that broke after the recording, Kara, we just learned that Meta is not shutting down VR support for Horizon Worlds. That's according to an Instagram post from Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth. He said there was, open quote, a lot of misinformation about the company's plans. We announced, hey, we're moving away from Horizon Worlds in VR. And the headline is that Horizon is dead. He said, it's not. And likewise, VR is not dead.

we're continuing to invest tremendously. This is weak sauce. We fucked up. Nana is on life support, and despite the fact you might have brain waves, we're pulling the plug soon. This is, in my view, an attempt to backtrack

and not totally freak out the remaining employees before they find them another job or lay them off. This is dead, in my view, and, you know, an attempt to, if you will say, They know there's still hope when they believe, and every indication here is that this thing is maybe in hospice, but be clear, it's on the Green Mile. All right, enough of that.

Let's move on. While the press was vaunting over the idea you were not impressed. I'd listen to a clip from 2021. I just love the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is showing up with literally the biggest fucking thud in history, and that's the Oculus. That's his vision for the Metaverse. the Metaverse.

Now one from 2022. And so if he pulls it off, it'll be one of the most impressive feats in renewal, corporate, not even corporate renewal, but vision around maintaining growth that they pull it off. I don't think they're going to. I think this thing is already a giant flaming bag of shit. One from last year. I was the original hater of headsets in Metaverse. And the idea of a bunch of cyborgs rocking around in their own world, even when they were

outside. It was sort of anathema to like everything we should be doing. Nice call, Scott. Let me just say that. Second of all, I didn't like Mata because the legless, it was weird. Remember when he introduced it was so weird and awkward at the time? One of the things that's astonishing here is that he could have this much of a loss and still, they're doing so well elsewhere that this $70 billion dollars doesn't matter and he's fetid while other people who have losses get slapped back to, but this is such a failure. Please, please take a lap and conclude this chapter of Mark Zuckerberg's life for us. Kara, the fact that $70 billion and cappax got taken into a street and burned

and that people didn't want to live on a legless future where they didn't want to be in a place where 40% of them were within 20 minutes nauseous or that they further separate from him. I'm shocked, Kara. I'm shocked this didn't work. I had big hopes for it because anything Mark Zuckerberg is clearly right. I mean, the scariest thing, I think the scariest thing about our economy, other than the income inequality is the fact that we have now tied the fate of the S&P and the 10% wealthiest households who control the economy now and government.

We've tied it to our ability to evolve a new species of asocial, asexual males and some females. And the thing is, this is a healthy. gag reflex from mammals. One, on a very instinctive level, it's very uncomfortable, especially for women, but for everybody, when you're walking on the sidewalk alone and you hear footsteps behind you or on the side of you. Because the things you can eat and the things that can eat you don't come straight at you. They have a habit of coming from behind you or from the side. And so your peripheral vision and the reason why billboards on the highway are still a big business is you notice shit in your peripheral vision. You're very subconsciously conscious of what's in your peripheral vision or what isn't.

And when it's blocked with a headset, you feel uncomfortable. So no, they never spoke to an anthropologist to say, all right, what happens when we invented technology that from the moment they turn it on, it's like if you turned on your PC and it made you feel slightly nauseous just by turning on. Remember, all those, all of that stuff, remember they showed it at CES years ago where you looked at a TV that was jumping out at you, it was sickening. And no one, never, it was a big thing one year at CES and then it wasn't. Let me ask you, I'm going to ask you a more challenging question.

All right, look, we're going to have immersive worlds, right, in some way. And some of it is kind of cool. I remember 20 years ago, Walton, I went to Korea and went to either Sony or LG, and we were looking at these headsets in movies. Pretty fucking cool. I remember thinking that, and I wasn't nauseous. I went to the sphere this week, which I loved. I saw the Dorothy thing.

And I thought it was wonderful. And we were all in a big room. And I have to say it was a lovely communal experience because everyone was laughing and they dropped apples out of the sky and everything else. There is something, I want you to say what will work here? Because there is an immersive experience with screens that is very satisfying. What would you, if you had to pick a business in the immersive screens, either on your head or in a situation like the sphere, which I think is a spectacular achievement? in a lot of ways. And it's also beautiful on the outside

because it's delightful. What do you imagine that to be? I don't think they'll ever be big businesses care. I think they're niche experiences. I think that our species has gotten really used to and comfortable with as bad as it is this world. So IMAX is an immersive experience,

but it's never really lived up to the potential outlined. It's good business, though. Yeah, it's been, quite frankly, over the last 40 years, IMAX, relative to the cost, it's been okay. I love IMAX. Every time, that's what I do when I take my, I love saying shit in IMAX.

I'm going to see Project Hail Mary tomorrow night. It's a niche business. The only place I want an immersive experience is when I'm having my teeth clean by a hot single mother, Brazilian single mother. And then she puts on headset that I can watch, heated rivalry. Right.

And then I start crying because I start thinking about my mom and I'm under the influence. I tell her to, when she says, she says, one to 10, nitrous, I go 12, baby. Can I tell you what I liked about? Like, are you right? They're experiential things.

One of the things that was cool about the Severeas. I have seen Wizard of Oz a million times recently, too, because my little kids are now watching it. So it's not something I want to see again and again. But one of the things I thought was quite beautiful was the ability to see things in the movie that I never saw. Like some of the beautiful costumes, some of the beautiful, you know, set design.

And oddly enough, the face. of all the people that weren't Dorothy, like, or the main characters. Like, I found myself looking at these beautiful faces from another era, right? Like, there was two twins there that I never noticed. And so one of the things I found, it wasn't just, everyone was like, oh, the tornado.

And I was like, that was cool. But what was beautiful was I could really see things in a way that I appreciate it. So there is something valuable about immersive in some way, like travel, I suppose, Or when you go to a theme park and you get on one of those rides that you, like, you know, you soar past the Golden Gate Bridge. I love all those things. Now, look, going into another world, you feel like an explorer.

It's sensory overload. It's really exciting. And then you want to out. Escape room is correctly named. You wouldn't want to live in this sphere. Your body can't handle that much sensory stimulation. In the sphere, by the way, similar to IMAX, an amazing problem. product, it's not doing well economically.

So the idea, or even the ultimate sensory experience, the ultimate moment of awe, supposedly, according to astronauts, is to go into space and see the world from another perspective. But guess what? What's the first thing they want to do after a week? Get home. They want to get home. So what I think, I wish technology was more focused on,

I hate this notion that we need to colonize Mars. No. The real genius here is someone who's going to make this place a little bit more fucking habitable. I'm in Tulum, staring out at palm trees and coconuts and the sand, the sugary sand, and I'm in awe and I'm comfortable. And this is the only fucking universe I want to be in. Yeah, no, I know. I've never wanted to go to the space.

Anyways, look, it's a disaster mark. You were wrong, and Scott was right. That's all I have to say. Speaking of scaling back, OpenAIs scaling back on projects and focusing on coding and business users, Pressure for the change comes from competitors like Anthropic, which you and I've been talking about dominating the business AI market. Employees also felt the companies do everything strategy led to a lack of focus, speaking of which open AI delayed the launch of the adult mode, which would allow sexually explicit conversations due to concerns from advisors over mental health risks, you think.

Also of concern in age prediction system that has been misclassifying minors as adults 12% of the time. The feature, which the company still plans to release eventually, would be text only. This is all the influence of Fiji Simo, who is the new top executive there. Very similar when Eric Schmidt came to Google. They were sort of chaotic and did everything, the two founders, Larry and Sergey. And then they brought Erickin to really clean it up. It seems sort of basic, this executive. But they do have done, made like a million stupid announcements.

And it does remind one of Google in that regard. Thoughts. You're exactly right. It's remember when Google was doing shit like trying to cured death. And then I feel like Eric brought in managerial competence and how to scale an organization. But Ruth Parrat showed up and said, all right, mom is home. Fun time's over. The dog's pregnant and the garage is on fire. I'm in charge now. And this is the right move for Open AI. And that is, and by the way, and this will go to my prediction, Anthropic is not worth

more than Open AI. I don't care what the last mark is on a preferred funding. But Anthropic has surged to 19 billion in annual recurring revenue up from 14 billion just a couple weeks ago. Six billion in ARR was out of just in February. Open AI ARR was 20 billion at the end of 2025. And here's the key. It's all about the enterprise because there's the only ones that are willing to make these huge investments. And get this to care, Anthropics Enterprise market share has increased at 32% surpassing OpenAI's 25%.

And since 2003, enterprise AI revenue has exploded from 1.7 billion to 37 billion. Yeah, they've got to be. The open AIs really mess this up. And then the other staggering statistic here that is why Open A.I. is focusing, which is the right thing to do, is anthropic is now capturing three out of four new spending in Enterprise AI. So they're getting 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time. And 10 weeks ago, the split with OpenAI was 50-50. So get this. Thank you, Pete Hague, Seth. It was 6040 in Open AI's favor as recently as early December.

So from December to now, it's gone from 6040 to 2773. So they are literally losing the enterprise. market. So it's starting to feel like OpenAIs NetScape, not Google, right? That's how it sort of... That's an interesting analogy you've often said about it. I just, I was there when Google was the first bout of chaos was at the beginning. And there was, you know, there was a cover of Fortune magazine chaos at Google. And of course, Ruth also shut down all their, all manner. They had so many ridiculous shit they were doing. And they could do it just like Mark with, with the Metaverse, because they had all this money. But it was like dumb. Like it was at the time when they would have you in.

And I was always like, this seems dumb. Like, why are you doing this? Why don't you stick with your business? And they just wanted to be more creative or more something, more interesting in some fashion. But it's really interesting because this is at a time when I think, you know, Anthropics been under pressure from the government. But in the end, they will soar and Pete Hankseth will be a, you know, a sad little footnote, a sad little drunken footnote in our history.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. Speaking of somebody who won't be a footnote, I would say, is Bob Eiger step down as Disney's CEO again. Iger passed the baton to a successor, Josh DeMorrow at Disney's annual shareholder meeting this week. Tomorrow, a 28-year-old veteran at the company was most recently head of Disney experiences, which includes parks, cruises, and resorts. Iger is set to stay on as an advisor and board member until the end of 2026. Not very long. It's unclear what it'll do after that. Before the last time he left, he did a bunch of advising and sailing around on a boat in the South Seas. Last time he retired, which I said he wasn't going to stay retired,

I asked him whether he planned to get into politics. Let's listen to what he told me in 2022. Did you ever run for office? I'm not planning to run for office. Is that a no? That's just what I said. Okay, all right, fine. I think you are.

So last thing, you should. I don't usually do not tell another white guy, oh, please run for office, we don't have enough of you. But I think you'd be an excellent, because I think you'd be an excellent policy. Because I think you'd be an excellent politician because I don't think you'll give a fuck. Anyway, I don't think he's going to run for office, actually. I can't imagine he's going to do that.

But what do you think his next act will be? I mean, he certainly had his ups and downs and the stock has not reflected much of it. Although I do think he did a lot around digital. I think he did a lot around streaming. I think he was a very good CEO for much of his tenure and not so good in other things. I think probably the Fox purchases,

one people point to as being probably. but in general, pretty good tenure, especially around streaming. I think that he made those moves. What do you think his next act should be? Hit the golf course and enjoy his life. And I would call challenge on his tenure, Cara, because the last 10 years have been the most prosperous in the history of the world for American companies, and his stock is below where it was 10 years ago.

And at the end of the day, as the CEO, you're evaluated, that's your kind of metrics one, two, and three. He, quite frankly, he really fucked up. He's the guy who went to Vietnam, completed his tour honorably, came home with medals pinned to his chest. He could be a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination right now, but he's more, he looks less like Mark Cuban and more like Shale Sandberg. And that is his second tenure. First off, he was heckling from the cheap seats. He left and never really left the room, but convinced the board, as far as I can tell, to fire the new guy and put me back in like some returning hero.

And he has had huge wins in his face. But Disney has become, Disney has gone from being probably the most iconic company in the creative community, to a certain extent, it represents what's happened to the creative community. And that is distinct of how incredible it is and their great IP and their great creativity. It's been bad for shareholders. And it's probably been a difficult place to work the last 10 years. And he did make a lot of the right moves. He launched a streaming network, he invested in the parks. But at the end of the day, his last 10 years, there was never a clear succession path.

He started to feel a little bit like, I forget the name of that guy at Citigroup, that any time someone got near him, got shot in the head. So he leaves, he's very likable. He's very smooth. Had he stayed away and then just let someone else run with it, I think he'd probably be a cabinet member, maybe even by, in the next administration at a minimum. Now he's the guy that, quite frankly, took Disney.

He didn't take the stock anywhere. I get that. I understand. I think doing the streaming stuff was critical to its future, and he definitely pushed that through. Like, I was there watching. I mean, he made a number of dumb digital moves over the years.

They kept changing Disney Buena Vista. I mean, I wrote stories on every one of them. But I do think directionally, very few people leaned into digital and streaming the way he did, right? Oh, I don't know. I would argue Netflix leaned in a little harder. Well, Netflix, of course. No, no, yes. They should have bought Netflix when they had the chance, and everybody had the chance at one point. But you're right. Netflix was in the right position. But you are dragging around a legacy organization makes it very hard. Well, a legacy organization that had the world's best IP. I mean, Netflix, so, okay, so Disney in the last 10 years has market returns of zero.

zero, and Netflix is up for, I'm sorry, it's up 600%. Yeah. And granted, granted the other studios have not fared any better, but with that IP, with the Parkster cash flow, look, Bob, what's the lesson here? The lesson is the following, and I think about this a lot, it is very hard. to pull off the ultimate gangster move for your brand when you're in a position of power and you're doing well, and that is to leave the party too early.

And that is people have a tendency when they're doing well and they're so iconic as Bob Eiger is and was to think to just stay too long. You want to leave the stage while people are clapping. You want to leave a party 10 minutes too early. You want to leave the Vanity Fair Oscar party at midnight, not at 4 a.m., when you're wandering out alone, and it's clear Emily Radikowski is not going to speak to you.

Was she there? By the way, at one point, I was sitting at the bar. We didn't talk about this because you were blabbing away to all your other pod people. I was sitting at the bar, no joke, in between John Hamm, who's quite handsome, and Jacob Alorty, who's even more handsome and much taller, Emily started walking towards the bar, and all I could think of is, there's no fucking way she's coming to me right now. No way.

I'm like the price is right. This is the real Emily Reddick. You saw her. Oh, yeah. Trust me. I saw her. Okay. Yeah.

By the way, she looks pretty good. She looks pretty good, Kara. So, wait, what happened? Wait, I only want the Radikowski part. Go ahead. Nothing. She just locked up and had a drink. And at some point, I'm like, I want to be the professor, not the stalker.

So, but my favorite moment is. You didn't say hello? I'm too intimidated. Oh, my God. She's got to know we talk about her. I said hi to Maureen Daud. Caitlin Collins, those are my friends. I saw that.

Those are, that's who I hang out with. And the smartless guys, those guys. They're fun. They're fun. They're fun. And they're like, they feel sorry. The only people that come up to me are like, they give me as an intellect.

They think, oh, it's so cute. They have a professor here. Let's go be nice to them. That's our charity for the night. And everybody comes up to me and says, I have sons and I very much appreciate your work. And then they say, oh, can I meet, you know, can I meet Jed Appetown now?

I'm convinced half the people, Half the people talking to me were checking themselves out in the reflection of my glasses. Oh, no, no. I can't believe you didn't speak to Emily Radicals. By the way, that party, vanity fair, those people are geniuses. I'm going to subscribe twice. Okay. The environment they pulled together that night.

Yeah, it's nice. It's a nice point. I think it's the most aspirational environment I've ever been in my life. I just couldn't get over the wardrobe, the environment, the food, the vibe. They've always done a good job. I just saw it as a new editor. Unbelievable. Mark.

Yeah. Mark just is an amazing, handsome guy too. Yeah. I have to say, they've always had a good party. They've been good at that. And they're under all their different editors. I think it's very nice. And I got to hang out with Larry David.

It's like angry meet depressed, depressed meet angry. Oh, my God, you look alike. What happened? Was there like a moment in the universe? We really, Larry and I are friends now. Oh, you're friends. We totally get along. Okay.

Yeah, we hit it off. And by the way, the Larry David show is really. the Larry David show. He's like, that's exactly who he is. He's like, what's the point of an Oscar? He just starts into a bit. And you're like, okay, here we are. He has a new show that looks hysterical that he did with the Obama's history. Yeah, he's a very lovely wife too. Anyways, I very much. I don't know. I back to Byge. Is Bob Eiger there? Because it was I did not see Bob. I did not sense a cashmere sweater, tuxedo anywhere. But the thing is, you walk in and they like, do you want to do a red carpet? And Morringtale's like,

I'm not doing a red carpet. And I'm like, I am so. doing the red carpet. And they have hundreds of photographers. And there's three Xs. And I guess you're supposed to go to one X and take pictures. I didn't know that. So I go to the first X and they're like, hello, professor, they're all nice. And I'm like, now I'm going to go to the second X and sit here and pose. Get the fuck out of here. And then I go to the third X. And by the time I got to the third X, I realized everyone's like, what the fuck is this guy doing? And one of the photographers, just out of a moment of like feeling sorry for me, kind of wave me. along, it's like, you're supposed to go to just one X.

And I turned beat red. I'm a bad celebrity, Kara. Oh, my God. Can I ask you one question? Did you see Jeff Bezos? He was there. Oh, yeah, I saw him with Lauren. I thought they looked great.

No, I didn't. I don't mind Jeff's midlife crisis. I'm here for it. I know. But did you say hello? I said hello to all three of them. I mean, I said, yeah, no, I said hello. I didn't.

I'm intimidated. Unless people come up to me, I'm intimidated. I don't like to approach anybody. You could have gone and said Kara says hello. That in that one, you could have done that. That's like, hi, my rich father knows you. I just don't want to do that. No, he doesn't like me.

I would be bad. He would give you a face. But I literally freaked out at about midnight. I'm like, this is the best party in my life. I need to go home and take a Xanax and just recover from all that. I felt like a kid who'd been out of a candy store for eight hours. Did you? I can't believe.

My only note is I can't believe you didn't say hello to Emily Radixowski. You're a loser. You are a loser. And I think she was there alone. Not that I was like looking at her a lot. I think she was there alone. He did just say, that was your golden opportunity. He didn't say hello.

That's the end of our relationship. Anyway, Bob Eager's next act, very quickly. He'll go on a couple boards and he'll enjoy his life and he deserves to do all of those things. He wasn't happy to do that before. And hang out with his lovely wife and speak at USC's film school. I don't know. He's got to do something else. I think it's something else.

How old was Bob? Bob is 74? He is in really good shape. Yeah, he looks really good. When he was in the last one, he texted me far too much. And I was like, I think you need to do something else. Because I think he's got another thing in him. I don't know.

know what it is. I don't know, he's 75, yeah. He could be in the cabinet. He could be in the Democrat cabinet. Well, that's 77, 78. Probably doesn't want that head. He could be the head. Could it be the Commerce Secretary? I don't know. He probably doesn't want to. What do you need that shit for? He'll be Ambassador of France and throw amazing partners. Ambassador France. That's it. That's it. Like the U.S. residents. That's perfect. Ambassador of France. Yeah. Let's do it. Bob, we're going to send you to France. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. We come back. We'll talk about Kalshi facing criminal charges, your favorite groups of people. people there, Scott.

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pre-sale discount and follow us on socials. Let's get it. Scott, we're back with more news. Kalsh is facing criminal charges in Arizona where prosecutors say the prediction market platform illegally that people bet without a gambling license. Kalsh, she says the charges are meritless and said they should be regulated federally rather than by individual states. The case is the first criminal prosecution against a prediction market company. It's more to come. I actually, when I was at South by South met with the California Attorney General who today did a lawsuit, one of the lawsuits against the next star, whatever that ridiculous merger was. In any case, The states have been regulating gambling for years, like forever for decades.

So it's not meritless. So what do you think does this? Because what was interesting, another story popped up, which I found fascinating at times of Israel reporter received death threats from gamblers on Polly Market after reporting an Iranian missile strike that affected a high-sex prediction market bet. Some betters tried to pressure him to change the stories of the market would resolve in their favor. And let me just say, this is the topic people are really interested in.

I'll read an email from one of our listeners. I'm a journalist and a fan of the show. I don't understand why I'm hearing CalShe percentages cited during the show. As anything, it's people guessing. I think it's more harmful and helpful. That's you doing it, Scott. I don't do that. I agree with you.

What do you think about these markets shifting from predicting events to actively influencing them in certain, given the gaming part, easily gamed, unregulated, bad actors. It is gambling. And gambling is very well regulated. What do you think about that? I think there's some truth to all of that. I'm this is one of those things I'm hugely conflicted by, because I am absolutely fascinated with the data where I would push back on the listener is, oh, no, this data is incredibly

insightful. This is the wisdom of crowds. This is, this does illuminate whenever I'm looking at political races, whenever I'm looking at interest rate movements, I go to, I go to Cal Street. You don't think it's a trailing indicator? You don't think it's a trailing indicator. It's pretty much up to date. And the thing about money and the thing about looking at,

typically the people who did this stuff were academics, economists, or an investment banking analyst. All of them are conflicted. All of them want to catastrophize because it makes this look smarter. All of us have third-party influences. Nothing is more amoral and pure than money. It just, when someone bets on something, it really shows you what they really think is going to happen.

And if you look at it's, these companies, these specs, market, speculation markets or prediction markets, have essentially put pollsters into a certain extent investment banking analysts out of work because guess what? They're much... Kind of. I would push back on that. I just met with a bunch of pollsters on this topic. Go ahead. In my opinion, they're done. If you look at the prediction markets record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kick their ass. Absolutely. I love the data. I am swimming in the data. It's one of the first things I do before I get on a show is I look at, I look at Cal Street data.

I'm totally conflicted because at the same time, there's a really good argument that this is just gambling. Now, what's happening is they're being charged with four counts of election wagering. The debate is over the fundamental definition of gambling versus event contracts. And Arizona charges claim that putting money on a contingent future event or occurrence is illegal. But at the same time, care, if that's true, then traditionally, options would be illegal. And that here's the problem or the issue. Gambling and tapping into a prefrontal cortex, an immature prefrontal cortex that is dopah hungry and susceptible.

In some ways, there's just no getting around. It feels predatory and unhealthy. So what do you do? Do you infantilize? I think calcium is trying to be the clean, the cleanest best lit place of They're not doing contracts on things like war, whereas Polly Market is off offshore and Kalshi is trying to get licensed by the same people who license the options exchange. But I want to hear what you think. I have no moral clarity around this. I think the states have been regulating gambling forever. So I think that's nonsense. If gambling is going on, they need to.

But they're approving it. They're approving it everywhere. States have been approving gambling all over the place. But so they need to be regulated in the same way. Like, it's my thing with everything. It's like if OpenAIs giving legal, medical, or psychological advice, they need to be subject to the same rules people are, right? The same, everybody, like, I was in Vegas for a second.

I have to tell you, you're absolutely right. It's dead. Vegas is dead. You don't need to be in Vegas. Vegas is in your pocket now. That's right. I was like, I literally, oh, my God, Scott was right. It was so freaky to be in Vegas without people.

It felt like I was in, like, Pluribus, right? It was so weird. And you could feel the enervation of a place that is just with these big rooms and the casinos empty. It's weird. And so it's definitely hurting businesses, right? These kind of things, whether it's sports betting online or this kind of thing. They need to be regulated the same way everybody else is. And states have every right to do this.

This is not. And maybe there should be federal gambling laws, but there haven't been really. I think that would be good. I think they would want that. I think they want some regulation. Yes. Let me ask you a more pointed question. Well, that's what the old tech company said,

oh, we please bring this regulation and they never got any. I think they would actually be up for it. Crypto, please bring us regulation. But let me ask you this. You have sons. I think about this a lot. Let's be clear, much of this is gambling. And but at the same time, do you infantilize children?

And I know firsthand as someone who appreciates data, there is real value in this data. There is. It can also be easily. game so easily. We don't know what's in it. There's a lot of potential for insider trading, but the more liquid markets, people are more greedy. Anyway, huge potential for insider trading. I get it. But let me ask you this. Do you think they should be put out of business, regulated, or let to just run free? Regulated. And what does that mean? I'm not sure. I'm not, I'm not an expert

on this, but I feel like how are, how are gay, I want to know how gambling things are regulated and Age-gating to 21 would be one good start, right? Possibly. Yes, 21. It's interesting. Yes. Yes. Yes, actually, on certain parts. Other parts, it's fine. But yes, age-gating would be one thing. It is infantilizing. We do it all the time with real businesses. Agreed. Porn, alcohol, military, driver's license. What it sends me is we're different. It's the same song and dance from all Internet companies. We're different. We don't deserve this. the same thing. And they get unfair advantage here. Who gets unfair advantage? These markets get unfair advantage. It made me very uncomfortable, for example, when CNN

others signed deals with them because I'm like, because I don't think they know how to use them properly. That's the other thing. It can be so, it's not reporting. Like, it's not, it's an indicator, it's a data point, but it's not, I guess I don't like them doing polls either. So I guess I just, I find it very weak and it can be very influential in a way. And so I just feel like it obviously needs to have some regulatory thing. With my sons, they don't actually, they're not big betters. I don't, I'm not, I don't know why. I mean, I get that why, like I was in Vegas for two days and I didn't bet once. Like I was like, I walked right through the casinos, but that's me. But I just feel like it's the death threat, this reporter thing was a really interesting thing. Like this has implications. that have been around since the dawn of time, and they think they're different. And so I think we need to have more transparency into how they're doing things.

I think they should have, you know, they shouldn't bet on deaths. Like, I mean, they shouldn't be, I don't know if we should make them not do it or if you say, okay, you're going to do that. Yeah, but to be fair, I do think Calci has said, we're not going to create markets

and things like war that might involve an incentive that might involve death or geopolitical decisions. So that's the kind of stuff, but there's going to be someone who's going to. So maybe we need some laws, right? I agree. I agree. We have to move on. It's a really interesting. It's a developing situation, but I think it's in every state's rights to do this. So Kalshi should stop being so high-handed with them. Of course they're going to come in. It's affecting things. So this is exactly why the government should come in in some fashion, at least think about it, have hearings, talk about it, and let's discuss the things. Just before we finish, this is the last thing. Uber plans to invest one point. $2 billion in Rivian as part of a deal to deploy 50,000 robotaxies. I recently spoke with Rivian founder and CEO, RJ Scouringe, on with Kier Swisher. I also saw him for an extended amount of time at South by Southwest. Let's us into a clip where he talked about self-driving.

If you're a customer and you have a choice of I can buy a car for $35,000, $40,000 and it can, you know, drop me at the airport. It can go to the grocery store and pick up, you know, stuff for me. It can drop a friend at a house. It can do all those things. Or, a car that doesn't do that, it's going to be very binary, right? I think there will be very few people that will self-select to say, I don't want those features. Even folks who are not comfortable with the idea of self-driving, once you experience it one or two times. It does. I try, they say that to everybody.

It's so sticky because you get your time back. Suddenly you can be reading a book on your phone. It's just so sticky. And so I think that is like to. My one way of convincing one person who likes to party, I'm like, you can text and drink. I don't know what to say. There's my, that's my sale for you. I think that was you I was talking about.

It was really, it was super interesting. I think it's a real blow again to Tesla. And I drove the Rivian too at South by Southwest. I also, they have a really nifty bike called Also, which I liked a lot. I really liked the Rivian. I think he's interesting. I think he's a great spokesperson for this stuff. And they're wonderful.

It's a wonderful. buy one, I might buy an R2 because I was super impressed with it. In any case, it's a really interesting move by Uber who needs to get into this business and it's a good thing for Rivian, who, you know, it's a tough struggle to get these cars, to get a car company going. Your thoughts on Rivian? I think it's a win-win. I think it's, Rivian is subscale. Automobile platforms cost so many billions to produce. I think Rivian has done as good a job as anyone. I'm moving, when I move back to the U.S., I'm going to, if I buy a car and I've really enjoyed not having a car for four years, I'm probably going to buy a Rivian. The two is nice.

It's smaller. I was one of those people to put $5,000 down on it, like five, six years ago and never took delivery of it. I should probably look into that. New Calci Market. What's the likelihood that he gets his money back? I think, look, Tesla's missed a real opportunity here again and again and again. But I don't think he cares about the cars anymore, does he? I mean, he was introducing a cyber cab that doesn't exist and isn't being used anywhere.

I mean, between Waymo and Rivian, I think they've sort of ran around. But let me, it's also very, one, they need more scale. So this is a great win for Rivian. Correct. I think one of the biggest brand enhancements is to be known. There are a few brands that have fallen further faster in the last 20 years and made shittier cars than Jaguar. This is one of the great British brands in history. The design in the cars the last 20 years have just been remarkably uninspiring.

Now, the best brand move, in my opinion, in Jaguar is they have been the car of choice that I've seen for Waymo. Yes, they are. So immediate, it's like, oh, Jaguar is the kind of the Pepsi generation new cool car. I didn't even know what that. I had to look. I didn't even recognize the car. I'm like, oh, that's a jaguar. So it's brand enhancing for Rivian.

It gives them all sorts of scale. And also, what people have underappreciated is that the biggest winner, the obvious biggest winner in Autonomous, regardless of all the bullshit press releases, people realize it's not Tesla. It's likely Waymo. They have the capital. They're miles ahead of everyone. They have exponentially more miles under their belt in terms of testing this.

But there's an outside shot that the biggest winner here. is going to be Uber. Because when you control... They're sort of like the Apple. They're sort of like the Apple. We always use in consulting, we always used to use the term custody of the consumer. My first client was Levi Strausson Company,

and they were always complaining about JC Pennings and Sears. I'm like, yeah, but they have custody of the consumer. You need to open your own stores. You need to go vertical to control the relationship with the consumer. In the U.S., Uber has 75% market share. They're basically a monopoly. Yeah, D.R goes for Shari is a very effective thing. And so what they can do is they can say they can push up an icon saying,

why do you need to download the Waymo or the Tesla app? Just click here for driverless. Yeah. They could also do deals with Waymo too. And they can play them off against each other. They can find the company that wants to work with them the most and get market share. But you could also use Uber to summon Waymo if you want. I mean, think why not?

That's my point. Yeah. And then take a large margin. So what did Apple do? because they controlled custody of the billion wealthiest people in the world through UI, and people don't want to learn a new app. They extract $20 billion a year from Alphabet

to make Google the default search engine. Uber's in a position to extract extraordinary deals around autonomous and make it insane people, oh yeah, you want autonomous? No problem. Here's the Uber app you love. And so, look, Waymo, it's going to be interesting. Autonomous, I think one of the places that AI actually comes to fruition and exceeds our expectations is around autonomous. I agree.

The question is, what's interesting is two of the biggest winners hands down are going to be Uber and Waymo. And I wouldn't be surprised if Uber is in fact the biggest winner because they have custody of the consumer. Yeah, ultimately. I've been a big, as you know, a big proponent of self-driving in a safe mode. I will tell you, I would never get in a Tesla given. I had a long talk with RJ about, you know, I think he's more on the you don't need this many points of safety, but he put them on there anyway, right? And so compared to Elon is like, I just have one camera or the guy in the back. Like, I feel so unsafe in Tesla's in that regard.

And I think the way Waymo's done it is correct. But you're right. Uber's in a very, it could have been, it could have been easily sidelined by all these companies. But they have the, I always used to say they have the reservation system. And you're right, it's the chain of custody. And you do trust Uber. Boy, what a brand. I mean, I know Travis Callan is trying to come back in this sector, but I got to say, Dara took that company and really made it into one.

You know what is comparatively? It's really been eye-opening for me, and it goes to something you said that's always really resonated with me. And that is the thing about tech executives, they're traditionally white males who went to elite schools raised in wealthy families. And when you've never been a victim, it's difficult to understand victim. That's always struck me that, like, until I walk in those shoes, you don't. And you know what women say to me that it makes so much sense, and I just never realized it. I get into an Uber, the driver usually doesn't talk to me. I don't want to talk to them.

And I know that sounds terrible. I just don't. I don't want to talk to. I don't want to be on my phone. Every woman I've talked to says when they get in an Uber, the Uber driver tries to chatter up. And it's uncomfortable, but yes. Well, it's uncomfortable. especially if you talk to young women, and they don't.

And you know who's really used loves Waymo is women. Women, they do. Or else you can also now on Uber, by the way, request a woman. They've done a great job. Let me tell you. Dargo's Rishaw. I don't agree with him. He's a great CEO.

I think sometimes he can be a little too compromising with terrible people. I think he knows it. He's a great CEO. He's done a great job here. All right. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. For a brief period of time, in the beginning of the pandemic, a time that I'm very sorry to make you have to remember, there was this hot new app that promised to reinvent the way that we thought about social media forever.

Clubhouse was going to be the thing. And this week on version history, our chat show about the most interesting and important and best and worst products in tech history, we're talking about why Clubhouse took off and then ultimately why it went away. That's on version history, available on YouTube and wherever you get podcasts. There's a reporter named Emmanuel Fabian who's been covering the war in Iran for the times of Israel. Recently, he got a ton of feedback about a tiny article he wrote, but he couldn't figure out why. It was about a missile that exploded just outside the Israeli city, Bates Shemish. I'd appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form, it does not reflect reality. Someone wanted him to say it was a missile fragment instead of a missile. Weird because it was a missile, not a fragment.

If you could correct this tonight, you'd be doing me and many others a great favor. Eventually, the messages got more threatening. You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence. You will pay the full price for your irresponsible act. Emmanuel finally figured out why people were getting so aggressive. They had bet money on how bombings in Israel would play out on polymarket. After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no last. than that to finish you.

Betting on the Iran War on today explained. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. Can I just start very quickly? I predict this maga micropenus war is gonna get worse, and I am here for it. Do you know about this, right? Megan Kelly said Mark Levine had a micropenus, and then President Trump defended his micropenus,

and then Marjorie Taylor Green came in with a micropenus, and Megan Kelly's doubling down on it. It's completely crude and awful in repulsive. and I think it's going to get a lot worse, and I'm very pleased. Thank you. Yeah. You know, I don't, I think it's inappropriate to talk about men's genitalia, Kara. By the way, I was at a urine stall last night, and a guy looked over and he said, circumcised, and I said, nope, that's just the wear and tear. Oh, my God. You told that joke before. I'm going to start clocking your penis joke.

Never gets old. I'm not going to say Adam Grant, but Adam Grant said you got to cut back on the penis jokes at the party you miss. Oh, my nemesis? Yeah, your nemesis was like, the more successful version of Scott Galloway? He's doing a podcast on the Vox Media Podcast Network with Bray Brown, the two of them. They're trying to be the nice version of Scott and Kerr, I think.

And he commented on your penis jokes. And I said, and I literally, Scott, I said, I love them. I defended you so hard. I appreciate that. And I was like, people love them. And he's like, yeah, but you think it's the right thing. I go, it's the right thing. I'm going to, no matter how much my brand.

If that's right, I don't want to be wrong. Also, I want to be a little bent to the left. Yeah. Anyway, just a touch bent to the left. It's a condition. I'm a special needs person. It's a condition. Don't shame me.

I'm here. Don't shame me. Now I'm talking about my. Sorry, Adam, but micropinus work cracks me the fuck up. And I'm here for it. And I hope more to come. And I think we're not done with the micropinus. I got to be, I love it when they were with each other.

because one of the things I don't like about the Democratic Party is that I find for the most part when I just went on this great podcast, this really lovely guy, he's a conservative out of Fort Lauderdale. Oh, you want to get that guy. Oh, I like him. I thought it was nice.

Anyways, the thing I find generally speaking about Republicans is they're like, oh, you want to be a Republican? Come on in. And when you say, oh, I want to be a progressive, it's like, we'll see. I feel like we apply way more. Talarico, there's a new Democrat in town, but go ahead. If you don't choose the right words, if you don't hold the gun correctly, let's court-martial

you and hang you. It's the right that's doing it now, but go ahead. You know what this is? This is a bunch of podcasters who know the algorithm, the more fights they get into and the more incendiary they are. Yeah, I suppose. You're right. You know, Candice Owens makes a living off of saying really vile things because the algorithms and

The reason our nation is being torn apart at the seams is there's now a financial incentive in being vile and incendiary. The algorithms love it. In a world where there were editors and fact checkers and more reasonable people saying, is that a reasonable thing we want to print? She would be fucking nowhere. Yes, I get it. Anyway, so I don't, I love it when these guys fight, but at the end of the day, it's indicative

of a bigger problem, and that is our media, our overlower. are algorithms deciding that this is news. Oh, you're so good. I don't care. I like the micropanus. Anyway, I defended you to Adam Grant. I appreciate that. I'm telling you, other than academic credibility and talent

and higher IQ, that dude has nothing on me. That dude has nothing on. Do you know he was a diver in college? Even better. He was a diver. Yeah. All his sort of like, you know, his tweets about, you know, characters doing the right thing when no one's looking.

Oh, fuck you. All right, move along. Adam Grant, you and Bray Brown, all your thoughtfulness and deep introspection. Let's just say, pound for pound, they're better people than us, but that's okay. Well, that's clear. Renée's better than me. I love that, Brneigh. Anyway, please.

I want to be clear. I like them both in Adam as a friend, so I trust he's taking this all in jest. I hope so. Yeah. One would assume. Maybe they'll discuss it on their new show. Maybe we should have a rumble with them. I think we could be evil twins.

I think with his intellect in my, I don't know, my something, we could take over our and Brene would be Queen of Australia. We should do a crossover show. I'm going to invite them on a crossover show. All right, we could switch partners. You know when they switch the husband and wives? You know, I've tried it, but I'm the one that ends up alone and no one's up for it. It's called a key party.

You could have Brne and, well, you've been on Brunei. Anyway, finish, do your, do your prediction. Oh, I'm sorry. My prediction is Open AI, SORA social media app will be shut down soon. Oh, Sora. Well, what do you know? You know something. No, I don't. I've done no original reporting, trust me.

Okay, all right. But they're focusing, which is the right thing to do. Sora is essentially open AI. It's sort of a tick-like social media platform for AI generated content. And users use their video model to generate short form content. And they can upload it and share it, right? And upon its release, SORA came out at number one in the App Store. and actually got more downloads out of the gates than Chat Chp.T. did.

However, like, the parties ended. Downloads fell 32% month over month in December, and another 45% in January. And some SORA is the little engine that didn't. And also, users continue to drop like flies. But at the same time, Open AI has to spend a ton of money to keep the lights on there. And some estimates are that... It also brings a lot of legal challenges.

Well, it's costing them $15 million a day or $5 billion a year. And despite that, the app is bringing in less than half a million dollars per month. And given their new focus, which is the right one on focus, it's not central to open AI's core competences. They're an AI company, not a social media company. It's not creating revenue. Big losses. And also, it's really unpopular. 62% of Americans disapprove of online videos, creative of AI.

It's a lot more trouble than it's worth. It feels dystopian. 70% of people globally would be uncomfortable consuming fully AI-generated creative content. So this new focus, this new adult in the room saying we need to focus on the enterprise market is now, quite frankly, we have ceded so much share and value to Anthropic. The first. Yeah, it's stupid. Anyway, the first example of this focus is that Open AI SORA, rest in peace. It's going to be shut down.

All right. Okay. Oh, I like that. That's a big call. I think that's a good one. I just want to make one other note before we go. President Trump's comments about dyslexia. I have a lot of friends who have dyslexia, by the way. He said Governor Newsom should not be present because he had dyslexia or has. Gross. What a gross thing to say. I'm just like stop it. Like stop like make demonizing things that are learning disabilities. It's gross. He does it all the time. But it's a continual thing. And everyone just lets him go. But honestly, It's just, ugh, and I predict it will have bad effects. Anyway.

Are you really surprised, though? No, but I just don't, I'm like, no. Like, we, I think we should keep saying no to this fucker. I don't know. I put the, I put the sex in dyslexia. Wait, sexy, dyslexia, sexy. Anyway, anyway. Get it?

Get it? That's good. Got it. I got it. Anyway, you're grotesque. I'm sorry. I think we have to call these out all the time. And I'm not angry about it.

It's just, luck. We want to hear from me. My favorite stripper has dyslexia. Her name was Density. I like a joke. Talk about character and being a good manager. Try to compete with my stripper density. My dyslexic stripper density.

Yeah, right. Let's see who wins the I-Hart podcast of the year awards. Density should be president. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. NYMag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show. Or call 85551 Pivot. Okay, that's the show.

Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week because there's so much news. Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intert-Etton engineered this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Musevere and Dan Ceylon. Nishak Kuroz Vox Media is executive producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Box Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at mymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for a breakdown of all things, tech and business. Density. That's good.