Pivot - Trump Indicted, Alibaba Splits, School Shooting Misinformation

Episode Date: March 31, 2023

Disney drops out of the metaverse, Apple jumps into buy now, pay later, and tech leaders call for a pause on A.I. Also, Donald Trump says that he's been "INDICATED," and Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is splitting into six companies. Meanwhile, misinformation swells after the latest school shooting that left 6 dead in Nashville. Kara and Scott take a listener question about senior poverty. Send us your questions! Call 855-51-PIVOT or go to nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

And for lunch, I had bone broth, and then I fasted, and then I ran over an optometrist on a ski slope. Oh, wait, that's someone else. That's someone else. Actually, Gwyneth Paltrow was exonerated in that miscarriage of justice. How dare Gwynny get attacked for this? She was just skiing on the bunny slope, enjoying herself,

wearing probably very organic materials as she skied. And this man bashed into her. And I feel finally she's exonerated. Someone who's not exonerated because we rushed back into our virtual studios to bring you fresh reactions to the Trump indictment, which just happened. It just happened. Here's what we know. On Thursday, a Manhattan grand jury indicted Trump on charges stemming from his alleged role in a hush money payment to a porn star, although there may be much more. The specific charges haven't been made public yet, but CNN reports that he faces 30 counts

related to business fraud. A spokesperson for Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg says he's reached out to Trump's lawyers to quote, coordinate the surrender. Wow. A lot going on. And lots of people are weighing in on social media like crazy. It's so fascinating how this has become, you know, instead of just a media story, which used to sort of run the show, this has become a massive social media phenomena as everybody's rushing to make comments or have observations or try to game the system, members of Congress, Trump himself, who's on true social.

He said he's been indicated, which I think means indicted. He wrote he's been indicated? Yeah, he wrote he's been indicated. Oh, that's perfect. I think he did it on purpose. That's perfect. That's my feeling is that they want to— No, no. No, he just misspelled it on purpose. That's perfect. That's my feeling, is that they want to- No, no.

No, he just misspelled it. No. People have been enjoying it. It means his cocaine dealer's back from Tulum. Oh, wait, no, that's his kid. Never mind. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

So, allegedly. Last week, he was supposed to be indicated, and he wasn't. And, of course, that was a huge amount of news cycles. And, again, it's doing the same thing. I mean, my mind goes to, I can't figure out. I've always thought that accountability is part of healing and coming together. So that's the glass half full here. I also worry that conservative states are going to convince their Supreme Courts to start issuing indictments for Democratic politicians. I wonder if there's going to start a tit for tat here. I

wonder if we're literally splitting apart. And the most interesting thing about what I've seen play out so far is that Ron DeSantis- Is trying to pour in here. Yeah. He's vowed not to honor what is essentially an extradition from Florida. And it reminds me of, remember, Ruby Bridges being blocked from entering. Yeah. So because. Like a George Wallace moment.

Yeah, we're literally splitting apart. We have extradition treaties with, you know, I think Kenya. I mean, we have extradition treaties with almost every country in the West, but we're not going to be able to potentially extradite someone who's under indictment from Florida? They actually don't need him, from what I understand. Is that right? Lawyers were speaking of this. Yeah. He said, we'll not assist in an extradition request. Well, they just have the National Guard show up.

Whatever. They don't really need him. He's trying to horn in here. And by the way, Donald Trump wants to show up at the courthouse and be arrested. He wants to use it for his fundraising. He doesn't want Ron DeSantis to save him and protect him. He wants to go there. He wants a mugshot. He wants the cuffs if he could have them. He wants to like say things, you know, it's an unpaid media event for him. And he's already put out fundraising things online. They're like crazy amounts of, now that I've been indicated, give me money. So he sees everything as an opportunity, not as a terrifying criminal possibility of going to jail. I don't think he thinks like that.

Well, I have a comment and a question, because I think, I mean, literally, A, I can't get on, I haven't been able to get on Twitter for 72 hours, so I don't know what the chattering class is saying. It's actually somewhat funny, but go ahead, go ahead. Maggie Haberman, who I would argue, or at least appears to be closest to their camp than anyone, and kind of calls balls and strikes and has become the Trump whisperer. I don't know. She claims that him and the team are really rattled by this.

Well, yeah. Yes. I think probably both. But he's not going to resist arrest. It's just too crazy to do that. I agree. A lot of people didn't think that was going to happen. And so the press was like, oh, they're taking off a month. There was all these stories this morning. And everyone on Twitter and elsewhere was speculating about this. Yeah.

And then they dropped it, which George Conway actually had the best tweet. It's good to see the old drop it in the mail just before leaving on vacation trick is alive and well. old, drop it in the mail just before leaving on vacation trick is alive and well. Another thing that was funny is Trump's been using social media to communicate. Again, he's using True Social. But he wrote a note on True Social, all caps, I have gained such respect for this grand jury and perhaps even a grand jury system as a whole. The evidence is so overwhelming in my favor, so ridiculously bad for the highly partisan and hateful district attorney that the grand jury is saying, hold on, we're not going to rubber stance with most grand juries. They're branded as being, we're not going to vote

against the preponderance of evidence against blah, blah, blah. Drop this sick witch hunt now, that's what he says. And then someone tweeted, thank Godness, the indictment came from a grand jury that Trump only yesterday had said had restored his faith in the entire grand jury. It's like so real time, how this is happening and how we consume it. It's really quite, it is like a show. I feel like there's really two huge stains on the American story over the last 30 years, maybe three if you count the overturn of Roe, but essentially are the challenge to Roe. But I think the two real stains that have kicked two of the three legs out of the kind of moral standing of America were, one, our invasion of Iraq.

I think it's very difficult for us to wave our finger at anyone in terms of hostile action after we essentially went in there under, you know, quote, unquote, trumped up charges. And then the second, simply put, is the Trump presidency. I just think everyone thought, you know, we could do a lot better. And it just got worse and worse and worse. And we couldn't believe that he was doing these things. And then he'd go one step further. Yeah. But, you know, I just can't.

The thing that I mean, I immediately went to, I immediately go to the stock market. Truth Social, get this, is up 14% in after hours trading. is up 14% in after hours trading. So people think that the additional attention, the rage, the engagement by his hardcore followers will result in this social media platform getting finally more engagement. I guess. But that, I mean, that's its biggest move up

in a long time. It's just so interesting, the different knock-on effects here. But what do you, I'm curious, Kara, because you've been right on this. I was really, I don't know, I thought they were coordinating. It doesn't appear they're coordinating, at least the different DA's offices. What do you think? Do you think this is good or bad for him?

I think it's bad. I think this whole media, like, oh, it's good for him. Yeah, sure, he can fundraise off of it, et cetera, et cetera. But he's got a group of people that are sticking with him no matter what. I think everyone else is like, what? Are you kidding me? I don't think they think it's unfair. And I think if they start to pile on, it's the smoke, there's fire kind of thing. And so if you get the Georgia one, the federal one, there's like six of them.

There's four or five or six. There's six, I think. I think it starts to be like, ooh, this is bad. Now, of course, they're going to rush to defend him initially, right? And attack Bragg personally, attack Mrs. Soros back, whatever. The whole obsession with the whole online conspiracy around Soros is really just has moved to bizarre now. But I think, no, I don't think it's good to be indicted on serious charges. You may not like this case, but there are other cases that you may like better, right? Yeah, agreed. That's how I feel about it, yeah. You know, okay, we're all like armchair lawyers. I don't know. I think it's bad. I don't think

it's good to be criminally indicted for a felony, ever. And I know people can get off and I know if he gets off, maybe, but there's another one standing behind it and another one and another one. It doesn't mean he can't become the presidential candidate, I'll tell you that, but that's all we'll talk about is what a criminal he is. And that's not good for, I think, Republicans in general who should be talking about Biden's too old, the economy, inflation. All we're talking about is whether Donald Trump is a criminal or not. And I think most average people are like, I don't want to vote for that. It'll be really interesting to see how hopeful Republican candidates respond to this. Well, yeah, yeah. They're all backing him right now because they

don't know what to do. But I think and he holds them to account. And so, you know, I think, I really think most of the people in the Republican, like, it was interesting because besides Christie, Nikki Haley took a shot at him earlier today about Putin. I think they're testing it to see how much, how they can get at him. They've got to be like, we cannot have this, you know, this criminal walrus run the show, essentially. I don't know if they like that. They've got to be behind closed doors cannot have this criminal walrus run the show, essentially. I don't know if they like that. They've got to be behind closed doors and be like, oh, my God. I think they may say that, but I think they're also horny to be close to power. And they have so much respect for his hardened silo of a base that they don't see frame. They haven't been able to turn it into victory, so. So I just say, loser, loser, loser.

Like, he's lost one, one two three times right and that's enough like loser is what he'd have to have a massive win and that is not happening for right now right now just with that hardened base it looks like if you just game theory this out yeah it looks like as it stands now even with this indictment and it's a long he'll have the he'll have the we have a long time but if to, like, project how this plays out, what it looks like right now is that his hardened base versus the rest of the Republican base that gets split amongst several people all vying for the nomination makes him the nominee and he goes on to lose against Biden. If you had to – if Vegas had looked at the wisdom of crowds around what people think is the most likely scenario, that's it. But again, it looks like he'll be the nominee at this point, even with this indictment. Unless he steps down.

I don't know. I don't know. I think he sees the nomination as his ticket out of this shit. Yeah. Yeah, probably. But it doesn't matter. They indicted him, and he's running. He's already running.

I think what's really interesting to look at is how everything plays out on social media, because it's become the de facto place where you see all the moves. I think the media sort of matters, the regular media, because they're sort of screaming over CNN and MSNBC and Fox right now. I think that sort of matters. But how they all react and strategize and react and strategize, to me, is where you sort of look. Even though it's not the real world, it certainly does start to create narratives around it. But it's historic. He is

the first president in history to be criminally indicted like this. This is like, God, he's, well, he's number one at a lot of things, and this is one of them. It's historic, I guess. It's funny. I don't know how you reacted. I'd be curious what your emotions were. My emotions were, at first, I was really shocked for some reason. Even though everyone said it was coming, I was shocked. And increasingly, I got to be honest, I'm feeling joyous. That was another.

Since you're not on Twitter, one of the things was Happy Indictment Day. Like, so, indicative day. Yeah. Even though I realize there's some risk around this, I just feel like at the end of the day, the arc of America bends towards justice. I'd like to think that. Yeah. Well, let me just say, as you were saying, any indictment or commission doesn't bar him from running for president. Yeah.

No, it doesn't. He can run for president from jail. I mean, this happened in Italy. So, you know, they're also preparing New York City for a deployment in case a riot starts, although so far he hasn't attracted big crowds for that. It is historic. It really, truly is a historic moment. And democracy is also, it wobbles with the sky. Well, and it's wobbling around the world. And the next 72 hours are going to be so telling. What happens to his fundraising? What happens to his, quote unquote, base of sycophants or pretend of sycophants in the Republican Party? What happens on the Democratic side? What do

they say? What happens, do a bunch of state Supreme Courts start issuing indictments against Democrats who they dig up old, they dig up old, I don't know, campaign finance violations and start issuing indictments? The next 72 hours are going to be fascinating. They are. They are, absolutely. But there are some good news. Gwyneth got away, you know, out of her jail. Thank God! Thank God. Well, in that vein, actually, we have a lot to talk about. There's so much to go and we've got to get on with the show. But just two things I have to say here, Gwynescent and Indicated. There you go. There you go. Let's start the show. Let's light this vagina candle, Cara. You're in vanity fear. That's very exciting.

I know. What did you think? Well, it was the puffiest of puff pieces. It was not. It was funny. Oh, my God. I had good quotes. The good quotes.

Literally the most critical thing in the entire thing was me saying we lost money on our pivot event. Yeah. Well, I didn't. That was the investigative hard-hitting journalism brought to you by Condé Nast. There's not much to get on me. Come on. What are they going to get? Come on.

What would you do? Come on. What is there? But you look good. Thank you. And that's the most important thing. Thank you. You look nice.

Thank you. You're a little jelly. It sounds like you're a little jelly. That's what's in it. Oh, 100%. Yeah, yeah. 100%. Yeah, the Bill Maher thing

didn't get you, didn't give you enough juice. Not enough. Yeah, yeah. 100%. Yeah, the Bill Maher thing didn't get you, didn't give you enough juice. Not enough. Yeah, not enough. It's never enough, Cara. I think the pictures are beautiful. I thought it was funny. I think there were some funny lines, and it was good.

It was good. You were happy with it. Yes, I was. The only thing that kind of, like, it was interesting when she was saying a lot of people wouldn't talk to her because they were scared of me. And I'm like, when did I ever like go after someone like Den Roon their career, that kind of thing. I just, I'm always fascinated by that. I've got to run. I'm having brunch with Kara Swisher. And if I'm late, she'll vaporize my career. I don't think we have real power, Scott, but maybe we do. Yeah, I think we have influence. I don't think we have power.

Yeah. I don't think we have political power. We don't have political power. I would like a little power, but I don't think I do. Yeah, I think we have influence. I don't think we have power. I don't think we have political power. Political power. I would like a little power, but I don't think I do. Anyway, it was very nice. Thank you, Charlotte Klein. It was a good piece. And again, that picture of me and the cat was really quite fantastic. Yeah, that was, the cat really cooperated. I know. That cat loves being attention. That cat wanders around the front yard only to be petted, That cat loves being attention. That cat, like, wanders around the front yard only to be petted.

Like, it stands there and waits for people to praise her. She's a great cat. She's, you know, Casey Newton's terrified of her because she attacks Casey Newton whenever she gets the chance. I just decided I like that cat. She sits. We have this in San Francisco. We have this stairway that's painted the color of the Golden Gate Bridge. And it goes in front of Casey's window in the cottage across where he rents from me.

And she sits there and stares at him in the window. Like, you can open the window, and she just stares at him. It's really kind of strange. So, we've got things mixed up here. I'm actually thinking about, I think my next dog is going to be a German Shepherd. Oh, you're having another dog? Well, I like to plan my next dog. I love dogs. How old is your dog? Well, they're two and three, so I got some time.

You got a lot of time. The ones are Great Dane. That's what I thought. They're young. Great Danes live to be like four. I mean, they're just- Oh, they do? Well, no. Actually, so given that you asked, we purposely got the runt of the litter because the difference between 120-pound Great Dane and 180-pound is two or three years. The smaller ones live much longer.

But Great Danes are an unusual breed, and they don't live very long. They get hip problems. And the bottom line is they're not freaks of nature. They're beautiful dogs, but they're kind of too big for their organs, and they just don't have very long lifespans. Oh, wow. God, every dog I've had has stayed around. My dogs, which who are living, who have retired up to upstate New York, with a family member of Megan's.

You mean you had them put to sleep, you just don't want to tell your kids? No, no, no. Yeah, I love that. No, no, they're up there. They're coming to visit next week for Easter. Little Muffin went to a farm. Yeah, that's my favorite. No, these dogs are like 103 years old.

I have little dogs. I get little, not tiny, tiny ones, but smaller dogs. I get dogs from the pound. Lovely came from the pound. I just use, you know, whatever local place where there's animals. I don't get any kind of fancy dogs like that. Yeah, we have a rescue. That's absolutely the way to go.

They're much happier. Yeah. Now, they're good dogs, but they live forever. Anyway, I was thinking of getting another dog for the little ones, but it's a lot of work. But you already have cats. I think the relationship between a kid and a dog is really special. And there's something different between the relationship between a small dog. A small dog is like having an accessory, a really cute purse running around the house they're fun

they're efficient small they're not small small they're not they're they're like medium dog mediums i've always had medium-sized uh but a big dog it really is a different it's like having a relationship with a beast yeah they're really it's a different type of relationship but anyways i'll i'll help you get your dog yeah i, I think kids and dogs are important. I agree with you. I agree with you. I've always had dogs. Anyway, we have so much to talk about.

And we've moved on to dogs from my delightful photo shoot for Vanity Fair. Anyway, you should read it. It's actually, Scott has quoted in there. He's very funny. I said nothing. I had literally, I said so many nice things about you. And that's what she came up with. That's right.

That's right. But thanks for talking about that. That was great. Anyway, we have lots to talk about today. Misinformation follows the tragic shooting in Tennessee, and China might be rolling out the red carpet to tech. We'll see. We'll also take a listener's question about aging in America. That's a good question.

But first, Disney is shutting down its Metaverse unit, part of a round of layoffs, eliminating 4% of its staff. The company also laid off Ike Perlmutter, the chairman of Marvel Entertainment. That's a different group from Marvel Studios, where all the big movies come from. He had pushed. He's sort of a grumpy Trumpy, and he pushed for changes to the company's board last year, including arguing for a seat for Nelson Peltz. I think he was working hand in glove with him, it seemed like. He had sold Marvel to Disney and then has struggled there. I think he fights with a lot of people. That's the stories that come out. And then there's lots of other meta things are shutting down in lots of

areas. Lots of companies are sort of cutting back on metaverse aspirations a little early. Companies are sort of cutting back on metaverse aspirations a little early. We'll see what it means for Apple's AR device, which is coming out, AR, VR device, and more. But what do you think about this? It reminds me of when Nike gave up on the fuel band. Oh, yeah. I had a fuel band. So did I.

Everyone had one. Everyone still has one in a drawer somewhere. Yeah. When a company like Nike can't make a fuel band work, I mean, they have all the assets, the distribution, the brand, the capital. They don't have the industrial hardware, the technology background. But, look, the metaverse, it's just amazing. We decide when someone makes hundreds of billions of dollars that they're literally Jesus Christ. And when he, Mark Zuckerberg, went all in on the metaverse, funds were raised to invest in the metaverse. And every company thought,

oh, we got to go, got to go meta. And everyone is coming to the realization that this is, I mean, this is kind of one step worse than 3D printing. It's just, it's such- Oh, 3D printing, remember that? It was going to change the world. It was going to reduce, it was going to eliminate all need for imports from China because we print everything on demand locally. I mean, you know, and then you go to a conference and we'd all gather around something that looked like a microwave oven and watch it make a baby Yoda and be like, okay, this is the future. It was just so fucking ridiculous. And anyways, the metaverse is right up there, except people bought into it longer and wasted more money.

But it's everyone's, I mean, Microsoft, Disney, everyone's getting out. Yeah, Microsoft. Yeah. I think they're getting out completely. I was trying to think, you know, sort of like crypto. It's like it didn't quite, it's still there. I mean, there's still elements. You're going to have a metaverse like VR experience.

I don't think it's going away in that regard. But it's the enormous spending. I think Mark, as we said many times, was way over his skis about where this was going. I never count out that thing because I think there are applications. But it's certainly not what he was talking about, for sure. Again, I hope Meta keeps on investing 1.2 or losing $1.2 billion a month on this thing. But everybody else, you know, looked at him and said, he's a very bright guy. If he's going all in, we should probably hedge our bets and go in a little bit.

But no, this doesn't make any sense. Yeah, it's over there in the crypto corner. They're sort of all hanging out together. And it's interesting. A lot of these companies that get started and then they pull the rug out from under them. You know, but that's the thing. Someone said to me, the planes are covered with the bodies of pioneers.

And I think that's absolutely true. Speaking of Apple, which also has this device coming out, allegedly, it's also jumping on something that actually has been working, the Buy Now, Pay Later train. The company announced Apple Pay Later, allowing users to split purchases into four payments over six weeks. The service will allow loans between $50 and $1,000 to be used with merchants that accept Apple Pay.

Scott, we know how you feel about Buy Now, Pay Later. Does it make it any better coming from a brand like Apple? No, it makes Apple worse. Okay, explain why you object. Well, there's a very simple axiom about building wealth, and it's not only about what you do, it's about what you don't do. And in sum, you should never go into debt for personal consumption. If you can't afford a new outfit for Coachella, if you don't have the cash on hand, you don't

buy it. And a lot of people end up with real serious, and some of this is for me and my colleagues that prostitute the American dream and put a ton of debt on people to go borrow a quarter of a million dollars to get philosophy degrees. So we're guilty, or I'm as guilty of this as anybody, but you should not. There's some good debt. So debt that is forced savings, when you buy a house and you got to be thoughtful about it, and you got to make sure you have the money for it, but when you can go five to one leverage on a house, and then it becomes a forced savings plan where you pay down the debt, you buy a business or you invest in a private equity fund, or you invest in, to a certain extent, anything that

requires you to pay it down, and it grows in value. As a company that you buy, as a stock you buy, as usually a home you buy, that is good debt. When you oftentimes, or even the majority of times, when you borrow money to get an education, most of the time, it pays off. It's an investment in yourself. Buy now, pay later preys on young people's need for their inability. Instant gratification. Yeah, their desire for instant gratification. There's some, you could argue, anthropological effect of peacocking because at that age you're looking for mates. So when I went and bought my first BMW, I probably couldn't afford it, but I was trying to find a mate.

I get it. You can sort of rationalize it. You can sort of rationalize it, but the thing that was really upsetting about this BNPL phenomena was it was lipstick on a pig of debt where they tried to position it as innovation, that somehow you weren't living irresponsibly. You were embracing a new debt card generation, not debt. And it was just such bullshit. And something like a third of the bad debt now is owned by young people via BNPL. I think it's a bad brand move. I really don't like this.

Yeah. Okay. You don't like it, even if they monitor and only give it to people that can do it? Well, look, they should be allowed to do it. And my colleague asked what the motor and says the best regulation is life lessons. And you don't want to infantilize young people. Everybody's gotten, I mean, I think most people have gotten into, have spent more than they had and had to learn the hard way that it's, there's lessons there. But the whole bullshit of BNPL, it should just be called debt. You're borrowing money. Yeah. Okay. We don't like it, Apple. I don't know if it's the worst thing in the world,

but you're right. It's interesting that they moved into it. They definitely are dominating this payment, trying to dominate this payment space. And so I don't think they could stay out of it. That would be my guess. What Apple's doing here is Apple ordered these Von Dutch hats, trucker hats, about 15 years ago, and they're just showing up now. They're getting into VR and wearables. And they're getting into BNPL. Because I bet two or three years ago when BNPL, these shitty little companies,

Clarn and Afterpay were worth $100 billion, they're like, we should have $50 billion of that $100. So they probably put in place the momentum and the projects to offer BNPL. And then by the time it was ready for primetime, because they're very thoughtful and meticulous, and there's a lot of regulation here, BNPL was wreckage and makes no sense. And it's the same thing. I bet right now, Kara, as much as my understanding is, and you know this, I don't, Tim Cook's excited about, I'm not sure they would green light a headset right now. Yeah, maybe. I don't know. I don't know. I'll have to see it. I'm going to just wait and see it. This is literally like, oh, honey, the Pet Rock you ordered in 1987 is here.

I like the Von Dutch hats. That would have been good for the vanity parachute. I would have done it. It was cool. It was counter. Anyway, another thing, speaking of counter, tech leaders and researchers are calling for a pause on AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, citing profound risks to society and humanity. More than 1,000 professionals signed an open letter calling the AI race out of control,

saying, quote, not even their creators can understand, predict, or reliably control. This is true. Among the signers, Elon Musk, Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, tech ethicist Tristan Harris, and president of the organization that sets the doomsday clock, Rachel Bronson. It's interesting because it's a little alarmist. There's a lot of people on their side that are saying it's a little alarmist. There's a lot of people on their side that are saying it's a little alarmist. There was a series of tweets back and forth from all sides of this discussion. But one of the things I think, of the people signing it,

Tristan Harris gave an amazing presentation I saw in DC about this. And I thought it was thoughtful. We were in the midst of an AI arms race and that there was a need to tap the brakes. But that's not going to happen, like, at this point. No one's going to try to hinder this innovation going on. And I think Musk has the issue, as he did when he started OpenAI, that it's owned by the bigs still.

The people who—that's the real issue, is it's the bigs that are doing all the movement here here and that they don't have any regulation to be had here. When I interviewed Sam Altman of OpenAI, he said it's good when stakes are low to test this stuff now. And that was his way of talking about it. And he said he welcomed regulation. But this was interesting. There's a big fight breaking out among the AI people, and they're all warring with each other. Any thoughts? Well, first off, I take seriously anything Tristan Harris says. I think he's a very thoughtful guy.

He brings a scientific data-driven approach to stuff. And I just, I take him very seriously and I have a lot of respect for him. So when I saw his name was on the letter, I thought, okay, I should read the letter and really think about this. And I'm down with this, as long as we can get China and Russia and North Korea to agree to the pause. And guess what? They're not going to. And the reason why I don't, I'll tell you why I don't think we should slow

down and what is behind this level. AI, I absolutely believe with Tristan and everyone else that has the power to be transformative and also could pose a significant threat just because by sheer virtue of its breakthrough power, technology potential. But I want us out ahead on this. I don't want the Russians developing the hydrogen bomb before us. I see. Interesting. Hydrogen bomb. And I think we have to be more aggressive and learn from the mistakes of the past and say, we have to get, just like we have now Space Force that's building its own facility down in, I think, Alabama, we need a government body, a regulatory agency with ethicists like Tristan, with very smart technologists that looks at new

technologies, that adopts them or absorbs them in for government funding. It should probably also be very crisply and aggressively integrated into our security apparatus as a tool. And we should be thinking about this and regulating it. But for God's sakes, do you think that anybody else is going to slow down on this? No. You know, it's interesting because I got a note from one of them and I said, it's fine to debate. You know, I was like, but they wrote back, I sent one that Emily Bender wrote, who was sort of on the, she's on the watch this stuff develop, but she wrote, okay, so that AI letter signed by lots of AI researchers calling for a pause on giant AI experiments, it's just dripping with hashtag

AI hype, here's a quick rundown, and then she went through it, and then I sent it to one of them, they said, it reminds me of the American left tearing itself apart in 1968 and paving the road for Nixon. And that OpenAI may well undermine the fabric of society, as Emily knows. And the OpenAI is only going to be too happy to see the opposition divide itself into little pieces. It feels a little alarmist. You know what I mean?

Like, that's not really an argument one way or the other. And it is. It's a very complex situation, which benefits the big companies when it's a complex situation, because no one's going to do anything as one argues about whether to do anything. But, you know, I don't know Elon's stake in this. He's got a lot of different agendas, so you never know. But he did, at his heart, he really did worry about this as, you know, the threat to humanity. He kept saying- Well, let me ask you this. This is a sincere question, looking for an answer,

not a question posing, not a comment posing as a question. If my understanding is basically Elon Musk tried to take over open AI and was booted out. And yes, yes, sort of. Okay. If he had gotten control of open AI and he was in charge of this right now, and had flipped it to a for-profit entity. Do you think the guy that has been rolling out autonomous, driving perhaps a little bit early, that's been increasingly rolling out cars that appear to have some issues and there's massive recalls, do you think if he was in charge of this, he'd be calling for a slowdown? I don't know. That's an interesting question. I think this has been of concern. In the genuine Elon Musk, I think it's been of concern. He really does believe this AI could kill us.

He does. And I think he's, it's not a new thing. And I think the reason he started OpenAI, because he was, less than the AI, he's worried about who controls it, the very big companies. And that's what he's been tweeting lately. And it's been consistent with stuff he did before. And that's what he's been tweeting lately. And it's been consistent with stuff he did before. So that jives that he's worried about the largeness of the companies who are controlling this, and he's worried about where it goes without any regulation. And that is consistent. So I do believe he's sincere in that, because it's so long. It's been, you know, 20, 15 years about that. That said, I agree. This is a different Elon, and I think he's lost power, and so therefore he's signing it, right?

So it's a kind of, I don't know what his agenda is in this. And I think we, let's leave him out of it. Some of the other people are very reasonable people who want to talk about this. And I think they're correct, and I think Tristan in this presentation, you know, talked about this. And I think Tristan in this presentation, you know, talked about this. He called it Gollum AI, that you don't know what it's going to do and there's damages behind the face of it. And I think he's correct. And so I think the thoughtfulness is not here.

I don't quite know what to do about it because I think government intervention is not really the answer particularly. And I think government should have been involved in the funding of this, which they weren't on the whole compared to other technologies. I think the alarmist stuff doesn't help it. I think you have to go, okay, it's good for this, this, this, and this. Here's the dangers. And there should be, I hate to say blue ribbon commission, but something outside of another agency, there needs to be a blue ribbon commission of people who disagree to discuss and debate so that we can at least understand where the alarms need to be. But again, the bigness of the organizations dominating it is of concern to me. I don't know if it's going to kill humanity and run us over and put us in, you know, I don't know if it's the Terminator is where we're going to end up with this.

The Manhattan Project. We basically, towards the end of World War II, our spies said, oh, the Germans, the Nazi Party, they're working on jet engine technology so they can attach a rocket to a jet engine and it can get to London in, you know, 17 minutes. Yeah, I agree. I think that's exactly the right metaphor. And they thought if they get jet engine technology, and also we found out that they were working on nuclear fusion or fission or splitting the atom. And we grabbed their scientists.

And so we got the best and brightest, put them in New Mexico, and it was a race. And there were a lot of people that knew, including Einstein, that were like, okay, this is going to end up in bad places. The ability to split the atom is going to have real negative consequences. But they said, we're in a race, and the lesser evil here will be if we're first. And that's how I feel about this. I don't doubt there are going to be really ugly things that come from this. I want to be first. If we could have an international treaty that would slow this down, I'd be down with it. I just don't think that's capable.

Yeah, it is like nuclear is the right one. I have become death. You know, there's a big movie about Oppenheimer coming from, I think, Chris Nolan. I think that's who did it. I'm fascinated by Oppenheimer. But let's get to our first big story. Misinformation is putting more lives at risk after a school shooting, this time at Covenant

School in Nashville. After the attack left six dead, right-wing pundits, politicians, and news outlets seized on the shooter's possible transgender identity. It's not clear. Personalities including Donald Trump Jr. and Marjorie Taylor Greene, always the same people, threw out attacks at a wide swath of trans targets, including gender-affirming care and hormone replacement therapy, which this person- It hasn't been confirmed, right? We're not sure. Not at all. Not at all. Just using pronouns on a website, essentially, is all they got. Police haven't said anything about a motive, but of course, that's not the point. They use any opportunity to keep bashing away at trans people. Tucker Carlson is doing it right now. It's a weird obsession, but here they are. Remember,

after a shooting in Uvalde, there were conspiracy theories that the shooter was transgender, and the left is not so. And after the Buffalo shooting, right-wing conspiracy theorists claim that the shooting was a, quote, false flag, the theory was endorsed by an Arizona state senator. So weird. I don't know why we talk about gender identity when the vast majority of shootings are carried out, again, by cisgender males. I think it's 97, 98 percent, which nobody's really counting that, but that's what it is. Twitter says it removed more than 5,000 tweets because they contain information about upcoming trans rights protests at Supreme Court. The protest is named the Trans Day of Vengeance. It's been in the works for a week, not the greatest title. Green and others say their Twitter accounts were temporarily limited after they called attention to the rally. Oh, I don't know what to say.

I mean, I'm sure you had the same reaction. It's like you hear about this news and go, oh, no. And you're like, how could it get any worse? You hear that this person is potentially trans. And you know where it's going to go. You know what's going to be on Fox. Yeah, 100%. It's going to be four to six hours or four to six 60-minute news cycles where they say thoughts and prayers. And then they'll move to taking their only hammer. and so everything looks like a cultural war, and going here. And if you were

going to play identity politics here, you would say that we have to watch out for young heterosexual male introverts. And I stopped doing that. I used to say when I talk about struggling young men that we know who mass shooters are before we know. And I stopped leaning into that because the reality is 99.99% of introverted young men who aren't socially adept are not going to pick up a gun and start killing other people. And you're only going to make the issue worse if you stigmatize young heterosexual males. And this is just the same thing. This is a group of people who don't wanna govern, don't have, literally have no solutions.

And so they just wanna delay and obfuscate. And what this is more than anything is a weapon of mass distraction in 1997. That's what it is. Well, that's a twofer. I'll give you that. It's an opportunity to enrage and inflame people on things that don't affect us, but they think offend their core base. There was a horrible school shooting in Scotland in Dunblane.

18 people killed, including the shooter, 16 kids. Within weeks, the UK decided we cannot have this. And they passed gun registration. They banned handguns, weapons of war. And in the last 26 years, do you know how many school shootings there have been in the United Kingdom? Zero. Zero. So far in 2023 in the United States, we've had 13.

In Japan, there'll be 10 gun deaths this year. Today, in America, there'll be 110. And so, nobody wants to talk about, or not nobody, the right will do anything to distract us, including being bigoted fucking weirdos, to create a conversation like the one we just had because it crowds out the real conversation. A hundred percent. And the ACLU is already tracking more than 400 bills in state legislatures targeting LGBTQ people. And trans rights are already in jeopardy in Tennessee. This Saturday, a law that criminalizes some drag performances in the state will go into effect. Meanwhile, in Kentucky on Wednesday, legislators overrode a governor's veto to pass a bill banning gender

affirming care and other trans rights. Let's talk about how to, what they actually do, which is the point, which is gun violence. So in one viral clip, one Tennessee Republican congressman said the Congress had no role to play. Let's listen to it. We're not going to fix it. Criminals are going to be criminals. I don't see any real role that we could do other than mess things up, honestly, because of the situation. I don't think you're gonna stop the gun violence. I think you've got to change people's hearts. Everybody just needs to tone down the rhetoric a little bit,

because all that does is gin it up on both sides, and then they point the finger, and nothing happens. Because if you think Washington's gonna fix this problem, you're wrong. They're not gonna fix this problem. They are the problem. It doesn't concern you that other countries don't have this level of gun violence? Other countries don't have our freedom either.

Actually, they do. Tim Burchett from Tennessee, they do have their freedom. We just have a lot of guns. It's the guns. It's the guns. Also, Democratic Congressman Jamal Bowman of New York got into a shouting match with a Republican colleague, Congressman Thomas Massey from Kentucky, in the halls of Congress. Let's listen to that. They're gutless. They're not here. I'm talking about gun violence. I'm talking about gun violence. Terry Dodge, you think more guns lead to more death? More guns lead to more death. More guns lead to more death.

More guns lead to more death. Look at the data. They're not looking at any data. You're carrying the water from the gun lobby. Bowman is a former middle school principal. He might know. It's just, these people are fucking useless. I don't know what to say.

Well, I try to move to like, okay, I would imagine almost everyone listening to this podcast realizes that they stand with NRA members and that most NRA members believe in background checks. I mean, even the card-carrying members of the NRA, most of them recognize we need to do something. It's the NRA leadership and Republicans who have decided they're taking money from what is arguably the most effective lobbying organization in the world, the NRA, and it continues to be unneeded. It is now, it kills more kids. There's going to be more toddlers killed than police officers this year. We have, it's the largest cause of death for children now.

And the way I move to, okay, we're outraged. The way I move to, okay, all the emotion, all the anger, all the disgust, like I try to move to what can we do to try and motivate people to vote for someone different, to decide finally if someone like this representative from Tennessee probably shouldn't get your vote. this representative from Tennessee probably shouldn't get your vote. What I would tell you is the following. I have noticed two big things about my move to London. The first is the weather fucking sucks, but that's another talk show. The second thing is that I didn't realize, I did not realize what a weight I was carrying

on my shoulders every time I pulled up to drop off or pick up my kids at school. And when I did it in Florida, I just couldn't help but have very ugly images pop into my mind. I would literally think about what happens, what do I do if I turn on the TV and I see on CNN a helicopter shot of my kid's school? Because I would know exactly what that meant. It happens a lot. What would I do? And I used to think, okay, is there some sort of technology solution where I plan an escape route for my kid? I mean, one time I dropped off my kid at our school and he was late and I took him into his classroom and I was leaving the classroom. And this was right after Parkland. And there was an older woman there and she followed me out of the school. And on the way out, she said, can I help

you? And she wasn't even a school administrator. She was a concerned grandmother. People were so paranoid. People were so freaked out that when they saw someone they hadn't seen before on the campus of the school, they went to the worst place possible. Of course. And we hear about, obviously, the devastation of the individuals. But Americans have decided, it's likely not going to happen to me. And so they don't take action. Or at least that's the only thing I can figure out.

This is the price they've decided it's OK to pay. They just do. Even, it was interesting, the Washington Post had an amazing piece about the parents of several people who were killed at these various shootings, including Sandy Hook and Parkland, allowed the Post to create recreations

of what happened to their kid and how this AR-15 ripped them apart. And so they showed how it looked, like what this, as opposed to a regular gun, which is apparently less damaging, damaging nonetheless. But this AR-15, it destroys people, it pulverizes people. And so they let them do it. And it was a computer simulation. It still was so sad and upsetting. so sad and upsetting. I have always been a proponent of show the pictures, show the fucking pictures of get the parents to let people see the damage. And that's where we're protected from it, from the damage. The media should just put the pictures up and say, is this what you want? This works. Now, there's a danger of becoming, you know, war porn. Like, I think that's always, they always protect people from those photos. But to me, I feel like it's done.

Let's show them. Let's show them what's happening precisely. And I think we do a disservice when we don't do it. And I know it's a controversial thing when I say that, but it just seems like it's the only thing that's going to shock people out of it. That said, I was thinking about how much violence there is on television and how many decades we're so used to watching shoot-em-ups and westerns and all the movies. We're sort of inert to the violence because there's so much we see on television or through horror movies, et cetera. So I don't know if that would work even. What you're talking about happened, and it was very effective. And it was in 1955, a 14-year-old African-American boy, Emmett Till, was lynched in Mississippi, and then they

mutilated his body. And his mother, when they did the funeral in Chicago, requested and got an open casket. And it was a key moment, because people just saw the horror of this. And I agree with you. I think that is an unfortunate and necessary thing that needs to happen. But what I'm just saying to other Americans is someone who's living abroad now, I will absolutely move back to America. I love America. I miss it. I pay American taxes, but that constant level of anxiety will return. I have to say, every time I think about moving, sometimes I think, oh, maybe, you know, this is going badly kind of thing.

Gun violence is the reason. I certainly won't move to certain states because I'm like, forget it. There's too many guns there, right? They're everywhere, of course, but it's a consideration. It certainly is. Like, it's- Well, just look at the data. I mean, it's just this ridiculous notion that there's

nothing that we can do, and the only nation this happens. Yeah, I agree. Your tautology doesn't, I mean, just doesn't make any goddamn sense. I urge everyone go back and look at Michael Moore's movie, which is still very powerful. You can have your opinions about Michael Moore, but that movie is something else bowling for Columbine. I think he was making these points, wow, 20 years ago. It's a movie well worth going back and looking at and why here versus anywhere else, this combination of fear-based, everybody needs a gun because they need to protect themselves. Again, the Post, which has been doing amazing

coverage of AR-15s, et cetera, interviewed 15 people with AR-15s. I urge you to go look at that too. They all think their families are under siege. They do. And no matter what you tell them, it's really hard to eradicate feelings like this among our populace about being under siege and living in fear. Yeah, but it's, again, another example of minority rule. The majority of Americans are for some gun regulation. They recognize this is out of control. Just as the majority of America believes that women should have access to family planning. But we now have minority rule. Minority rule. You're 100% right. 32 trans people were killed last year. They're typically the victims of violent crime. One of the deadliest mass shootings in America targeted patrons at the Pulse Club and Club Q in Colorado also. And for those who are attacking trans people about this, Tucker Carlson tweeted that the trans movement is Christiana's natural enemy using this opportunity to do that. And so for those people, go fuck yourself in that regard. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, we'll talk about China and Sam Bankman-Fried and hear from a listener who saw you on Bill Maher. How exciting. Exciting. I heard you were on Bill Maher, Scott. That's right. I was with a cat. You wish you were the cat. Fox Creative.

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Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. Okay, Scott, we're back with our second big story chinese e-commerce giant alibaba is splitting into six smaller companies alibaba announced the move tuesday just one day after founder jack ma reappeared in china after nearly a year abroad ma's visit could signal an end to china's crackdown on big tech that campaign started in nove November of 2020 when the Chinese government canceled a $33 billion IPO for Ant Group, another Jack Ma company. Alibaba's stock is up on the news and

more could be on the way. Five of the six future spinoffs could IPO. I don't even know what's happening here. I don't know why Jack Ma went back to China. I think what they've done to him is really... To see a quiet Jack Ma is such a shock and an acquiescent Jack Ma. But here we are. What do you think of this spinning it off? I mean, could be a good thing instead of having one giant company that runs all. What do we think of this? It's a great idea for shareholders. If you think about what happens is the CEOs of companies want to reduce their indigestion and they buy, they make acquisitions. A, they want to get paid more. And the easiest way to get paid more is to make a bigger company because the

compensation committee will base compensation based on the size of the company. So it's always tempting. And always the idea of a great acquisition is so tempting that CEOs constantly overpay, two-thirds of acquisitions end up destroying shareholder value. But what you end up with is these Frankensteins, these conglomerations. And the issue is, it's good for the CEO because the CEO is like, oh, my cloud division was down, but my e-commerce division or my payments division is up and it smooths out their earnings, makes things easier for them. But here's the thing, you don't, as an investor, need the CEO to diversify for you. You can buy separate stocks. And what you want as an investor is you want a CEO and a management team focused on one type of business

that they can be fully accountable and responsible for. And so one of the easiest ways to unlock shareholder value, and it's kind of a go-to in the activist playbook, is the deconglomeration or breakup of companies. Because what happens, Kara, is when you have a company that has so many different units that it's hard to suss out, and companies will start playing hide the ball in terms of reporting, and they'll cherry pick which numbers they want to report from which divisions. So the market gets frustrated. And what the market decides to do in these conglomerates that are impossible to value is they find the shittiest business, and they assign that multiple to the entire business.

Oh, interesting. So the New York Times company traded at a multiple on EBITDA of four or five, because that's what newspapers should go for. Even though it owned the seventh tallest building in America, its headquarters, even though it owned 17% of the Boston Red Sox, even though it owned about.com. So the moment you unlock value from a conglomerate that isn't getting any scale or real synergy here, other than reducing the headaches and the indigestion of the CEO, the disposition of assets is accretive for shareholders. This is a great idea. Yeah. Okay.

I still think what they did to these executives is really unusual. Now you're sort of squashing them, but they were trying to take away power. I'm not saying a breakup is analogous to disappearing CEOs. No, no, not at all. So it'll be interesting to see what happens to ByteDance and Tencent. And there's some really interesting signs, China, they may be worried about the TikTok effect here. Other signs of a possible tech thought in China this month, Tim Cook and the CEO of Qualcomm both appeared in China in recent days. China's video game regulator approved a batch of foreign titles, and ride-handling app Didi announced plans for expansion. They could be like, oh, we pushed it way too far. I don't know.

That is exactly what it is. This is the closest Xi will ever come to a charm tour. Yeah. He's basically wrapped a knuckle so hard he's cut off the fingers, a couple fingers, He's basically wrapped a knuckle so hard he's cut off the fingers, a couple fingers of the Chinese internet economy. Yeah. And his economists or whoever have sat him down and said, okay, if we're going to continue to bring millions of people out of poverty, we got to let our thoroughbreds run. And they are on a charm tour right now. Hey, Jack, come back.

Yeah. Say hi. We're going to maybe, you watch. There's going to be ribbon cuttings. There were a lot of photos of him. I'm always fascinated by how they do their PR. Yeah, we'll see. But I think it's the same thing in Israel with Netanyahu.

All these tech companies were like, see you later, sir. With American tech, it's going to happen next. They're going to do a bunch of photo ops and a bunch of ribbon cuttings with American tech companies. Who is? Oh, in China. Because everyone says how vulnerable Apple is to this tumult in China. They are. It's the second biggest market. That's where they make their iPhones.

Tesla. China is just as vulnerable. I mean, if these companies pull out of China and tens of millions of people are out of work overnight, I mean, that could be. Keep in mind, you can't vote the party out of office here. It's called revolution. Right. So in some ways, they are very receptive to, you know, the goings on of the people, if you will. But this is a charm tour.

This is a charm offensive. Johnny, you're in it with us whether you like it or not. Fighting with this is probably not a great idea. One person who's in big trouble in China is Sam Bankman Freed. Remember him? The FTX founder is charged with bribing Chinese officials to unfreeze trading accounts held by Alameda Research. Prosecutors say SBF first tried to hire lawyers to lobby Chinese officials and made fake accounts to trick them. That didn't work.

They claim he greased some palms. This guy is going to jail forever. I mean, you know, well, what do we say about this? Nothing. Yeah, I mean, the judge is just going to, the sentencing hearing here is going to be really ugly. Just pile it on, put it on the top. Oh my gosh, yeah.

Honestly, he's going to pay for all the sins of crypto. Uh, they're, they're looking at other companies too. Binance is also being scrutinized anyway. Uh, okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. This question comes in via email. I'll read it.

Dear Scott, it's only to you. I thought you did a great job on real-time Friday Now. However, I disagree with your statement that senior poverty has been eliminated. I see stories on news about seniors having to make choices to get their meds or food. My own mother has worked for over 35 years on her feet to raise me and has never struggled more than in her retirement. My mother's debt has increased exponentially as she's tried to pay for her meds, keep a roof over her head, and food on her table at 92 years old. The last thing my mother should have to worry about is staying afloat. I think as a country, we're a long way from seniors feeling socially secure. A dedicated Pivot listener, Sid, please address. Let me just give you a couple of statistics. over 65 was more than 10%. That's lower than the national rate for all age groups, which is 12.8%. But 2.3 million older adults on Supplemental Security Income, SSI,

receive less than $600 a month on average. Scott? So, I want to acknowledge the point, you know, and unfortunately on television, and I realize I sound defensive, you have to be a bit reductive. But I stand by the general statement. In 1960, people over the age of 65, over a third of them lived in poverty. It was 35%. And because of Social Security, it's been reduced to 10%. So the reduction in poverty has been greatest among seniors, largely because of what many people argue is the most successful social program in history across every geography, and that's social security. Senior poverty used to be a real scourge, and it's now more the

exception than the rule. So I've learned a lot about social security because I find the transfer of money from young people to old people, it doesn't make any sense to me that the wealthiest generation in history gets a transfer payment of a trillion dollars from younger people. It doesn't make any sense to me that the wealthiest generation in history gets a transfer payment of a trillion dollars from younger people. But having said that, when I did the real homework on it, it is a very successful program. And I want to acknowledge that there are seniors who are struggling. I didn't mean to be that reductive, but senior poverty has been reduced from 35% to 10%. Yeah. Yeah. It's know, I just got my notice of when I can take Social Security. It was funny because I'm just turned 60.

Yeah, because you're getting up there. I know, I know. If I were you, I wouldn't even buy green bananas. It's interesting though, when you take the Social Security, how much more you get if you keep working until 70 or something. 67, whatever it is, yeah. Yeah, it's really, I'd never seen the numbers. It also showed how much 70 or something. 67, whatever it is. Yeah. It's really,

I was, I'd never seen the numbers. It also showed how much money I had put in, which is interesting. And then I was like, do I, should I take this out? Because I don't need it necessarily. But then again, I put it in, you know what I mean? Like it was my money that went. Well, and also if you want to secure social security and let's, let's go to, it's a great program. Let's secure it. In 2033, it's out of money. Yeah. If you want to secure it, so someone making $150,000 a year pays 6% or approximately $10,000 in the Social Security Fund. Someone making $1.5 million a year pays $10,000 because the cap on it is, I think, $147,000. So if you lifted the cap and you stopped Social Security tax being a regressive tax, just made it a flat tax, not even progressive, but not regressive, then where someone like me

pays 0.6% versus everyone else that pays 6%, it would be solidified and funded forever. That's how it should happen. I would agree with you, Scott Galloway. Rich people shave more in, depending on income. But we're not going to do that, are we? You know what? When you just think of swinging at money and being frugal as you get older, as I've gotten older, I've decided. Like, I actually don't really love strip clubs, but I go because sometimes they have the best deals on breakfast buffets, Kara. It's just a responsible thing to do. Are you frugal?

I wouldn't say you're frugal. Let's not get into this one. To swing by Glory Girls at 11 in the morning. It's just, it's the smart thing to do. Yeah, yeah. On this argument, I am much frugaler than you in general. I'm a frugal person. I think spending money is wonderful.

Yeah. As long as it's not BNPL. Okay. Okay. Because God can pay up front. Buy now, pay now. Buy now not BNPL. Okay. Scott can pay up front. Buy now, pay now. Buy now, BNPN. Buy now, pay now.

Why don't we suggest that to the seniors? Anyway, Sid, thank you for your note. It was very thoughtful and you're right. TV is reductive. And I think Scott is making a larger point, which he's also correct on. I can't believe I'm saying that. Anyway, if you've got a question of your own

you'd like answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVID. All right, Scott, one more break and we'll be back for predictions. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I have one very quick one. Our blue checks are getting taken away. And there's also a very special group of people on Twitter that get to, we learned they had a secret list of VIPs whose tweets are boosted, some names, LeBron James, AOC, and Elon Musk. So anyway, our blue checks are getting taken away. So I had my first bug on Twitter. You've been saying it's buggy.

I have been locked out of Twitter for two days. I can't log on. Oh, yeah, it's been doing that. That's a new bug, yeah. A lot of people. I requested a new password, and I just couldn't log on. It just kept giving me these error messages. Yeah, that's a good thing.

It's happening. So I have two predictions. My first is that Chelsea will beat Aston Villa on Sunday. I'm going to the game with my 12-year-old. We're super excited. And that's going to be very exciting. But look, I made this prediction last year, and it was wrong because the stocks have got on Alibaba. It's gotten cut in half. But Alibaba and Chinese internet stocks are going to continue their tear because the chill has been lifted. And Aswath Damodaran always says that when you're making an investment in a Chinese stock, you have the CCP in the room with you. And for the last two to three years, the CCP has been a wind in the face of private internet companies or publicly traded internet companies. It's about to become a wind at their back. And with COVID over the lockdowns, with China opening up again, I think you're going to see a mini boom. The NASDAQ is up in the US. It hasn't recovered as

much in China. Well, actually, the last three months has been pretty strong. But this breakup, you're going to see some IPOs over there. We're about to see a regression to the mean for Chinese internet stocks, a continued regression to the mean where they accelerate. And Alibaba will probably lead the pack. Yeah. Oh, interesting. Okay. Yeah.

I just think the government, I think these companies have been beaten down so badly, even with their bounce back from November of last year. These companies, Chinese internet companies, are still cheap compared to their peers in other mature markets. Right. And the unknown here, the reason they've been battered so hard was the wind in their face of the CCP. And the CCP has clearly decided, okay, they've learned. Jack Ma's in line. Everyone's fallen in line.

The U.S. is pissed about TikTok. We're not going to stop. Yeah, let's turn the wind machine on. Yeah, probably a good idea. Should be doing the same thing in Israel, as I was saying. Anyway, that's a very good prediction. That's an excellent prediction. And that's the show.

We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Scott, please read us out. Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Andretat engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Silverio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Cara, have a great weekend. Thanks, you too.