Pivot - Trump’s China Summit, Inflation Shock, and Silicon Valley’s Midterm Money

Episode Date: May 15, 2026

Kara and Scott unpack what AI obsession is doing to relationships and young men. Then, they break down Trump’s China summit, the crew of business executives he brought along, and ominous warnings fr...om Xi Jinping about Taiwan. Plus, Sam Altman testifies in the Elon Musk–OpenAI trial, inflation surges, and Andreessen Horowitz becomes the biggest donor of the midterms. Also, Anthropic eyes a valuation higher than OpenAI’s, and Google explores orbital data centers with SpaceX. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:21 Medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. CoreWeave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose-built tech, building what's never been built before. CoreWeave is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, Ready for AI. To learn more about how CoreWave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave.com slash ready for anything. That is the most Kara Swisher thing Kara Swisher has ever said. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Starting point is 00:01:58 And I'm Scott Galloway. Guess who I spent several wonderful days with this week? Several. Several. I don't know. Who? My son, Alex, legs. We had a great time. I took him to New York. I had to go up and interview Joanna Stern was written a book called I Am Not a Robot, which Alex really enjoyed the, it was at the 90 Second Street, Why. But it was really nice. And I have a new proposal for us, Scott. I have a new idea. I think it's really nice to spend quality time with one kid at a time, right? To like do something. You do that, don't you? Like take one, not both, but like one special thing for like a day or two, whatever they want to do. I think that's a great thing. I very much every Saturday night, I do dinner with one of them. And I take trips, I would say, if it's not a family trip, I do a trip with one of them, not both of them. Yeah, yeah. I thought that you do that, and I was thinking that.
Starting point is 00:02:52 I was thinking that's a really good thing. It was such a nice quality time to, and I don't like the word quality time, but it actually was. It was where, because everyone's, you know, as you know, I have a talky family. So everyone's competing for, you know, it's just a lot of people all at once, but it's just nice to have concentrated time with one kid. at a time. I just was thinking. Yeah, it's nice. Oh, I went, I went and saw Devil Wears Prada, too. And? Took an edible, went and got.
Starting point is 00:03:17 Why? Did you take your wife? What was the cause of you going to see it? I did my favorite thing in the world. I'm here just solo with the kids. I took an edible. They didn't want to see it with me. And they don't like, they don't go to movies. And I went and I ate at the bar at this place called Lena, which is this Italian restaurant at the bottom of Marlebone or of, I said, Marlambon. Street, yeah, and then I walked over to the Selfridges theaters, and I got to admit, I liked it more than I thought. I only walked out about after an hour. I waited. True story. I waited until I saw you. I thought you looked really good. I waited until I saw Justin. I thought he nailed his part perfect, and then I piced out. Now, you don't know what happened then in the end. I know exactly
Starting point is 00:04:01 what fucking happens. It's the same goddamn movie again. There's no different. Not only that, you know, it's really even stranger. They all look like they've been. been frozen. They don't look any different. It was 20 years ago. I know. Don't they look great? Everybody looks exactly the same. Yeah. But it's the same story. Oh, there's Annie who wants to be a journalist and she's been a journalist and no journalism. No, you're wrong. It's a huge global hit. I love how you like try to trash much. Which doesn't mean it's good. Marvel controls the box office. No, no, no, no. This is doing rather well. All these individualized movies are doing really well. And you love to resist it, but it's the case.
Starting point is 00:04:37 People who, people are liking, you're into story right now, very much so. And like smaller story. Yeah. And you want to see something that's well done? Watch Running Point, which also stars Justin. It's great. I love it. Me too.
Starting point is 00:04:50 I watch the entire thing on the plane back from Europe. Yeah. It was such a walk down memory lane. I moved to New York in 2000. And that was literally the heyday of magazines. and Condonast was the bell of the ball. And it's such candy. It reminded me.
Starting point is 00:05:10 Francis Ford Coppola, maybe you remember this. He did a movie. It was three or four movies in one, and the production values just dripped off the screen. And it reminded me of that movie. Oh, I think it was called New York Stories. And it was just three different, it was in 1989, and it was three different sort of New York stories.
Starting point is 00:05:29 Such great talent, such great production values. but the stories just weren't that compelling. That's how I felt about this. I just enjoyed watching it because the fashion is so beautiful, and it just takes you back to a really, kind of, I think, an iconic time. You never realize you're in a golden age
Starting point is 00:05:46 until it's gone. Yeah, absolutely. And this was sort of reminiscent of that golden age, and they did pay some homage to the disruption of digital, talking about social media. But the talent and the visuals and the cinematography and the fashion, And everyone's so fucking good looking,
Starting point is 00:06:05 that's worth the whatever it was 12 pounds, but it's a pretty thin story. Oh, I don't know. I think Justin was fantastic. He's great. I think it was, you know, they're so good. Like, watching these people do their stuff
Starting point is 00:06:16 is just completely pleasurable. On a talent. Beautifully made is what I like. Agreed. You know, it's like looking at a beautifully made thing. I thought it was actually a lot deeper. And I thought, I think because of the interplay between Justin
Starting point is 00:06:27 and Meryl Streep in that one scene, which you might have missed, was really amazing. I didn't see that. I did enjoy Merrill Street, having an HR person following her around. I know what's saying. I'll finish this. But I feel like I should get someone like that for you going.
Starting point is 00:06:40 It's like, I want to kill myself. You can't say that. You can't say that. She was wonderful. That actor was, she's from Bridgeton. She was in Bridgett. She's amazing. She's in Bridgetton?
Starting point is 00:06:53 Yeah, she's the wife. She's the second last season. Married the other Duke of Earl. She's beautiful. But she was fantastic. She like, you can't see. say that. I literally was thinking of getting you one of those. It's like a helper. Anyway, you are that person. I am. That's true. I do. You can't say that. You can't say that.
Starting point is 00:07:11 Okay, let's get into it. Before we get into news, I want to chat about a piece and wired titled The Sad Wives of AI. If author details how the AI boom has created a wave of women, especially in tech heavy circles because men working in or obsessing over AI are emotionally and mentally consumed by it. One therapist mentioned in the piece says her client base is almost entirely women whose husbands are professionally adjacent to AI, over 70% of AI skilled workers are men. I just made me laugh. I'm not really a sad wife of AI, but you, I was interviewing Joanna Stern this week at the 90 seconds 3WI.
Starting point is 00:07:47 She's written a book called I Am Not a Robot, where she lived with AI for a full year. And I was thinking, I discussed how much you use it compared to me, which was interesting. I don't know what you think about sad wives of AI, but it's interesting. This article really shook me, and I think it calls on a much bigger issue, more with young men. But I think what's going on here is that this isn't about men falling in love with machines. It's about men choosing control over connection. And I think it's a dangerous. I think it's a dangerous trend, especially among young men who are forming their approach to relationships their entire life.
Starting point is 00:08:27 And that is the following. Real relationships require friction. Right, as I said, yeah. AI removes friction. And amongst my friends, and I've talked about this openly, and I've said this, I modulate my consumption of porn because I want that energy and that having sex with someone takes real work. And you know what it does?
Starting point is 00:08:54 It turns you into a better man. It makes you think about what turns that person on. It makes you think about connection. It makes you think about how you become more attractive. And when men start finding, you know, opting for control in frictionless relationships. It's not just porn, though. It's just like spending time with it, right? Like really.
Starting point is 00:09:15 This is a substitute. Porn is a substitute for intimate sexual connection. And AI has becoming slowly but surely a replacement for, I said, down, I'm doing a lot of virtually signaling right now, I sit down with my son when I put him to bed every night, and he talks to me about his day. I won't let him be on screens in his room, because I'm worried at some point he's going to just start talking to his AI about his school day and asking him for advice. And here's the bottom line. What is usually the right thing is usually the hard thing. And nothing is harder and nothing is more rewarding than relationships.
Starting point is 00:09:52 And when you come across, when you're young, you can start believing that real relationships feel unnecessarily hard and therefore less appealing or more bluntly. When the alternative is a partner or relationship that never disagrees, relationships in reality start looking like a bad deal. And we become more disconnected. No, I did that interview with Sherry Turkle for my series. And she was like, it used to be a sidelight.
Starting point is 00:10:19 There was always an odd person who used these things like that. And she goes, now it's nearly everybody. Like, it's very mainstream. And I think, you know, people say it's men and women, but it's largely men. I think it's men. I've been very seduced by AI around business. But I've decided, and what I tell young men is, you got to earn your sex. Don't really try to modulate your porn.
Starting point is 00:10:41 You got to earn your relationships, your intimacy, and your sex. And when you do, that's what makes it really rewarding because memo, it's really hard. When you need advice, go to friends. go to your parents. If you're looking to brainstorm and you're looking for additional data, it's bad for men of my age. It is a fucking disaster for kids under the age of 18.
Starting point is 00:11:03 Yeah, and they're consumed by it. You know, one point I made to Joanna in this interview where she used it a lot is, she's like, why do you, she was noting it was many more men than women. And I said, and many more men making it or creating it and everything else. And she goes, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:11:18 And I said, I think men can't have children, and this is a version of children. Like, they're creating a being. Like, they're creating and shaping a being in a way that they want to with control, which is exactly what you said. And I think it's a real, it's a version of that of total control over a being, which I think is very attractive. We're becoming less memalia. We see declining male participation in relationships.
Starting point is 00:11:43 When men don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes down. When women don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes up. in results in increased isolation. We are men, especially men, are substituting relationships with digital alternatives, gaming, porn, and now AI. And this is what happens. When you become increasingly digital,
Starting point is 00:12:03 you become subject to the whims of shareholder value, which want to take you to the extremes, and also elevate incendiary content, nationalist content, misogynistic content, content that demonizes immigrants, or demonizes trans kids. And you end up with a co-co- of people who take their natural aggression, which can be very positive if channeled the right way,
Starting point is 00:12:28 in terms of risk-taking, in terms of saving other people's lives. But when it's channeled through digital means and you start blaming other people, it can lead to nationalism, strongmen. I think this is a really big issue. Yeah, it is. I had a really interesting discussion with Alex. I was asking him how he used it. Actually, I found the way he used it. I said, I want to know exactly how you use. And I think they're very honest with my kids. He uses it, for example, he puts problems in it. And then he said it's like an assistant, a tutor, right? An assistant tutor that they go through. He has very complex math problems, obviously, with his school because he's in such advanced calculus and everything else. And he said, I walk through like it's a teaching assistant. And then
Starting point is 00:13:11 I put it away and do the problems myself. And then I have it look and see where I went wrong. And then I do it again myself. So it's a really, he uses it in a way that I think is smart. Anyway, but he doesn't use it for, you know, he has a nice girlfriend and, you know, they get into beefs and this and that, but it's, but they also have a relationship and I think it's, I think that's not a dumb way to use it. Anyway, it's a really sad story. You should read it. It's immired. So let's get to the news at the time, speaking of men, men, men, men, men. The photos out of China are really quite disturbing. It's only men at the table here. President Trump and Chinese president, President Xi have met for a little over two hours right now and attended a state banquet
Starting point is 00:13:53 to start off their two-day summit in China. In G's opening toast at the banquet, Xi said, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand. He's neckering at Trump on his back, though. The White House said both sides agreed that the straight of her moves must remain open. She warned Trump that mishandling Taiwan would cause clashes and put the entire relationship in great jeopardy. Trump is joined in China by 17 American business leaders, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang. A surprising lack of women on this trip everywhere. And also China experts. We asked Alice Hahn, director of Green Mantle and co-host of Profji's own China Decode podcast. For her thoughts on the
Starting point is 00:14:35 summit, let's listen to what she has to say. So U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to China. This is the first visit by sitting U.S. president since 2017 when Trump was last president. I'm carrying a three-point school card going to summit in terms of rating it. Number one, will there be any indication as to tariffs and trade? Number two, will both sides agree to freeze or maybe even loosen certain export restrictions on chips and rare earths? And number three is the thorny a geopolitical question. I think both sides will have two very different readouts on Iran, but certainly both leaders will be talking about it. And I believe that Trump will apply some personal pressure on Xi Jinping to help resolve it, although I suspect the Chinese will
Starting point is 00:15:22 be reluctant and push back on any kind of collaboration over Iran. I think this will be largely summatory without substance, and it does pave the way for more summits to come with potential for two or three other meetings and a Shi visit to the US later this year. One concrete prediction I have for this summit is that China will increase Boeing purchases of aviation equipment, I think the fact that the CEO of Boeing is going there with Trump is an indication of that direction. Interesting. Obviously, so she does, Summetry is a really good word. It's interesting because a lot of the coverage out of it is that China thinks we're a declining empire. And of course, who we brought was interesting. You typically bring business people on these things. It's absolutely true. And you brought all mostly tech people or tech adjacent people. I think most people feel that as she says, nothing's going to come out of this, and it'll be interesting to see what signals she sends
Starting point is 00:16:21 versus Trump, I think. I think he's a more important person to pay attention to. Your thoughts? It's not who he brought. It's the ratio. He brought 17 CEOs with him and three diplomats. So it feels as if America's just becoming an operating system for the wealth of the top 1%, and they try to figure out.
Starting point is 00:16:39 Billionaires on a plane, like snakes on a plane. Yeah, and what's the minimum amount of cheap calories and entertainment? know, bread and circuses we can throw at the bottom 99 such that they don't, you know, revolt. And there's no policy, there's no prep. He sounds like an eighth grader with terrible, you know, who's had to take, he's failed English so many times, he's going to have to take it as English as his second language. It's like, Jesus Christ, can someone buy the guy elements his style before he gives a talk? I mean, he just.
Starting point is 00:17:09 I know, the speech wasn't crazy. Chinese restaurants. I didn't even understand what he was talking about. They're laughing at us. You can feel it. And they, I thought the most important statement, because you can be clear, well, he's sort of, he's sort of improvisation with a mic. You can bet she calibrates every word. Yes.
Starting point is 00:17:28 And the words that she said that I think should send a chill down everyone's spine is he said that he hopes that America's current approach, something the effect of America's current approach towards Taiwan could result in a clash. And Trump hasn't really said a lot about Taiwan. He's not flying to Taiwan with Speaker Pelosi and publicly cementing our relationship with the ally there. It was a warning. It was a warning. Yeah, or not even a warning.
Starting point is 00:17:54 It was more. I saw it more as like a preview that we are going to start, we are seriously considering some sort of soft or not so soft, repatriation, acquisition, invasion, use whatever word you want of Taiwan. And I think had Trump had more elegant diplomats with them, they would have immediately responded and put out a statement along the lines of, you know, we are all, both nations are committed to peace. And just as I'm sure we've witnessed
Starting point is 00:18:23 the incredible fighting force of Ukraine, when armed with technology, they can repel a much larger aggressor, which in my opinion would be an elegant way of saying, stand the fuck down when it comes to Taiwan. Right. He doesn't sound like he was. And he would never, he doesn't think, he doesn't, he doesn't have the diplomats of the IQ to respond to what was really the only substantive statement made at this summit and sending Huang over, Jensen used to have 90% share of chips over there. It's gone to zero because China's figured out that if I provide my local entrepreneurs with the incentives to catch up, they just might. And our trade has gone from 23% of their exports used to come with us. Now it's 17%. They have bigger trade with Asiana,
Starting point is 00:19:08 the Asian, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and also they do more trade now with Europe. Yes, they do. So we showed up, you know, it looked less like diplomacy than sort of two casino owners trying to refinance each other's debt. But she is the house right now. Trump came in as the guy asking for an extension on his mark or his credit. We are mutually, each of us has a foot, should we decide, on the other's carotid artery. They own 70% of rare earth minerals and 90% of the processing. We own or control with Taiwan, 80 to 90% of sophisticated chips. Which is why Jensen was there to be able to sell.
Starting point is 00:19:52 This is something Trump barred, by the way. And then now he wants to sell the chips into China. Yeah. Can I make a comment about all the business people, as you said? I mean, it really was. There's so many important issues. Like, there should have been a discussion about global AI standards in warnings, just the way with this group, cooperating.
Starting point is 00:20:10 With this group cooperating on scary shit. That's right. And this group is all in on whatever. There's nobody who is everything they do. Nobody is a critic of it. This is like, you know, flying billionaires on a plane to China to get shit seems problematic from a visual point. You're exactly right. This should have been an opportunity to develop the modern day equivalent of Interpol.
Starting point is 00:20:32 We have cooperation, even amongst Russia and China, around nuclear weapons. We cooperate and we go kill people for. We think they're trying to mix up a biological, you know, a bio weapon. We cooperate and we go find those people and we arrest them or kill them. We should be doing the same thing of cooperating around AI. Publicly. Publicly. I suspect there's behind the scenes stuff happening.
Starting point is 00:20:54 But, of course, there is. But at the same time, with this gang, just like with the advisory council on AI, it has nothing to do with safety and AI or anything else. It has to do with let's do some business here. And as long as it's good for us and my rich friends, I'll do it. But it was so, he looked tired, he looked old, he looked addled. He's both those.
Starting point is 00:21:16 He's all those. And then he was tweeting his, where truth in his little heart out, like with his, apparently the piece in the Wall Street Journal. I don't know if you saw that piece of him. Was it 200 truths in a four-hour period? Whatever. It's this lady who helps him, this young lady who has a startling resemblance to Ivanka, who stays up with him late at night and does this.
Starting point is 00:21:37 And even the White House people don't know what to make. of the situation. And though a journal was implying some stuff like they were trying not to, but she facilitates him posting this crazy stream of lunacy. Oh, when I'm old, I just hope I have someone facilitating me. Anyway, you know, his lack of sleep. His name is Manny. Okay, I know. Mani is going to the soft hands. Mani with the soft hands. I'm looking for me. Anyone named Mani with soft hands, call me and I'm going to get you ready for Scott, which should be in about 10 years. You should know that.
Starting point is 00:22:08 10 years, don't you think? I'm difficult, but I'm very generous in terms of compensation. I know you. When do you think you'll be going down, like going down? Oh, I think the correct term is went. Went. No, but really going down, like hard. When you say going down, you mean needing help?
Starting point is 00:22:23 I mean like in the need for a manny. In the need for a manny. I'd say 82 for you. Jesus, that early? I think so. My dad, I'm assuming I'll follow the pattern my dad. At about 93, my dad needed help. 93. Okay, yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:36 All right. Okay, Mani, get ready. Get ready. Yeah. Yeah. But just back to for a moment, back to the summit. Okay. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:22:45 Trump doesn't recognize the evolution of China since the last time he was there. China's no longer trying to copy Silicon Valley. They're trying to replace it. That's correct. Alibaba alone is going to spend $53 billion on AI. We're so focused on the hyperscaling and the CAPEX here. You know, US hyperscalers are spending 650 billion, but $53 billion from one company, China usually typically has the ability to make their dollars go much.
Starting point is 00:23:09 further. And what they offer is the fastest zero to a billion dollar companies in history have one general business strategy. And we like to think it's the innovator. No, it's not. The second mouse gets the cheese, or specifically the shareholder value. And the most dramatic or the most accretive business strategy in history is to provide the following. 80% of the leader for 50% of the price. My first strategy engagement of profit was basically this idea, and that was a lot of people couldn't afford the gap in the 90s. A lot of people think of it as being a kind of a middle-class retailer. The gap is expensive for a lot of people.
Starting point is 00:23:51 Most people can't afford $22 pocket teas. And the idea was let's tap into this huge population of single mothers who are very conscious about their children's confidence at school and offer 50% or I'm sorry, 80% of the gap for 50% of the price, Old Navy, fastest $2 billion retailer in history. Southwest is essentially, when it started, 80% of the majors for 50% of the price. China's entire strategy is we'll give you 80% of a semen cell tower for 40% of the price.
Starting point is 00:24:22 Yep, they're very innovative too. Let's say, you know, this idea of what they're, they are a very dynamic autocracy. Let's just, they are a very, like, dynamic and nimble autops. Just incredible. Yeah, and they have tons of problems. There was just an interesting, I mean, similar stories, decline in marriages,
Starting point is 00:24:37 declining kids. They certainly plan that for part of it. I mean, they have their own issues. Youth unemployment, demographics, a real estate, over-leveraging real estate. Unhappiness, morale, stuff like that. Yeah, which is more problematic in an autocracy. But it's problematic here, too.
Starting point is 00:24:52 All right, Scott, we'll see what happens. Nothing is a nothing burger. We'll see if they do more. But I agree with you. Taiwan is where we need to focus. That will be a disaster. That will be our greatest crisis of this era, I think. Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break.
Starting point is 00:25:08 Come back, Sam Altman takes the stand. Support for the show comes from Quince. It's hard to get everything you want, especially when it comes to your clothes. But what if you could find pieces that feel effortless, comfortable, and still put together? Thankfully, there's Quince. Their fabrics feel elevated. The fits are flattering, and everything just works without overthinking it. Quince has all the wardrobe staples for spring.
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Starting point is 00:26:29 Quince.com slash pivot. Support for pivot comes from MintMobil. Our money does a lot for us. Unfortunately, a lot of phone companies have figured out that your money does a lot for them too. If you take a step back and take stock of all the unnecessary fees and inflexible contracts in your life, you'll probably find that your wireless plan is a big culprit. It's time to stop overpaying for wireless just because that's how it's always been. Mint Mobile wants to help you kick that habit and keep more money in your pocket. Mint Mobile
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Starting point is 00:27:38 answer and when you're working through a complex problem, it helps have a partner to bounce ideas off of and help you uncover the deeper issues beneath the surface. That's where Cloud can help. Cloud is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough. It's a collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you, whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move. Cloud extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter. Plus, Cloud's research capabilities can have comprehensive, reliable analysis with proper citations turning hours of research into minutes. And co-work brings Claude code's agentic power to your desktop, no terminal required. Just pointed to a folder on your computer or add connections like Google Drive and Gmail.
Starting point is 00:28:17 Describe what you need, and it handles the rest. You can queue up tasks and come back to finish work. So this isn't in the script, but I've connected it to my Gmail and found an incredible augmentation to surge. For problems we're solving, get started with Cloud today at cloud.a.ai slash pivot. That's cloud.a.ai slash pivot. And check out Cloud Pro, which includes access to all of the features mentioned. in today's episode. Claude.A.I. slash pivot. Scott, we're back. It was Sam Altman's turn in the hot seat this week.
Starting point is 00:28:52 At the Elon Musk OpenAI trial, Sam denied Elon's claim that he tried to steal a charity and said Elon supported OpenAI becoming a for-profit company as long as Elon had total control. That sounds pretty accurate, as far as in my experience. Let's go through some of the other highlights from Sam's testimony. Sam described, quote, A haresing moment when Elon suggested control of open Aish should pass to his children.
Starting point is 00:29:14 after his death, that is hair-raising. Sam said Elon's departure from Open AIA in 2018 was a morale boost for employees who did not like his hardcore management style. I was there during that time. That's exactly what they described. I have to say, I heard from a lot of people. He was like a big giant fucking baby. And he does that with all his comes. He comes and yells, kicks a can, and then leaves, and they can't wet till he leaves. When pressed on his Open AIA equity stake, Sam acknowledged that he holds a passive stake in the company through Y Combinator. I also want to mentioned that Caraswisher came up in the trial this week. I was surprised not more. Well, Microsoft CEO was surprised not more. No, because I was texting a lot with all of them.
Starting point is 00:29:49 The most Caroushisher thing Caras Swisher has ever said. I was surprised I wasn't mentioned more. I texted with them all during this time. The Microsoft Sacha Nadella was testifying. Elon's lawyers were questioning Nadella about the nature of Microsoft's relationship with open A and pointed to comments he made during an interview with me after Sam's firing. He was all in for Sam during that period. Closing arguments are getting other way right now. So again, you're, any, I don't think there's any more last minute surprises. Elam was not supposed to leave the country, by the way, according to the judge, but he did anyway.
Starting point is 00:30:23 He was supposed to be, you know, on call, essentially, but he doesn't care. Any last minute surprises, anything? It seems like it's going the way we talked about, thoughts with this jury. I don't have any additional color here. Again, I think this is grievance-causing a legal argument. So this is a traditional jury trial, and the jury decides this. It's a jury decision, and then the judge will decide remedies. So, you know, if he lose, if Musk wins, they might say, well, we're leaving it as it is
Starting point is 00:30:51 and going with the California thing and they can pay him money or whatever. We're not going to get rid of the CEO. That's one of the things he's asked for. I think he can't possibly, I think this jury can't possibly side with him. I mean, ultimately, I don't think they proved anything. And it's a sort of he said, he said kind of thing. and Elon's the most loathsome of the pair, right, by far, by country miles. So I think Elon's made a spectacle of himself.
Starting point is 00:31:14 If he wins, it would be something else, like, I'll tell you that. But I can't imagine the jury thinks this guy got a short end of the stick, or that he's stupid and didn't know what was happening to him. I think that's really, he's sort of played this, I'm a genius. Well, if you're a genius, how did this happen kind of thing? You're not a dupe. And so I think they probably think he's lying. And there's enough evidence that he is.
Starting point is 00:31:37 or just, as you said, grievance theater. In any case, I have a feeling it's going to be quick, but we'll see. It would be a real shocker if you won. And the latest inflation numbers are out, and the news is not good. Consumer prices rose 3.8 percent last month the biggest increase in three years. Energy costs, obviously accounted for more than 40 percent of the monthly increase. With gas prices up 28 percent, grocery prices rent, and airfares also climbed sharply. President Trump, however, does not appear to be overly concerned.
Starting point is 00:32:04 Let's listen to how he answered reporters' question, as he's, left the White House for his China trip. When you're negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are American financial situations motivating you to make a deal? Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody.
Starting point is 00:32:29 I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. That's the only thing that's motivated. Oh, wow. That was some quote. That was like an ad. Like, they just, he cut an ad for them. It was, that was astonishing, I have to say. I mean, it's what I think he thinks. And this nuclear weapon thing, we're less safe now than we were doing in the Obama days when we had most of the enriched uranium and a deal. And the state of Hermuz was open. So any thoughts about what he's doing here? Why? Or he's just, just an old, addled man who just says whatever's on his mind. I don't know. Yeah, so look, with this administration, so the quote-unquote objectives of regime change, oh, wait, no nuclear weapons, oh, wait, unconditional surrender. I mean, there really isn't, it's so back and forth and, you know, erratic that it's difficult
Starting point is 00:33:23 for him to outline or be taken seriously. Having said that, I do believe that, loosely speaking, the way what he said there is how presidents should approach wars. Wars are more than gas prices. Wars involve killing people and putting our own men and women at risk. And I think, and he's not the guy to do this, but I do think the president should be willing to have an adult conversation with the American people and to say that the reason we have decided to put our own men and women in harms, and commit this type of treasure and talent and potentially kill many of their citizens is because we think it's worth it. And this is why we think it's worth it.
Starting point is 00:34:07 And quite frankly, we don't go to war unless we, as your leaders, have decided that the American public are going to have to sacrifice. George Bush told us we could go to war and cut taxes. And Americans believed him. So I think an adult conversation with the American public around We have consulted with Congress, we have consulted with our allies, and we believe whatever the objectives are are worth some sacrifice. I think that is the right thing for a president to say. But this requires an adult conversation, more leadership, more gravitas, and clear objectives.
Starting point is 00:34:44 And none of those things are, you know, evident with this president. But again, I think the president should be the person to say to the American public, I'm not going to take you to war. unless I think it's worth it, and also unless I am willing to ask you to sacrifice. That's not how he asked it. He's like, I don't give a fucking. He doesn't have any objectives. It's worse than before. He's made it worse. And it's not a war. Like, it's not, he's kind of right. It's not, it's something else where it's just a disaster. It's just a big fucking mess. The same is casinos. And, you know, everything he touches turns to this in some way. Just even the, even the New York Times story about the reflecting pool. What a mess. He gave it to some group of people who can't fix it.
Starting point is 00:35:26 There's already leaks already. It's being painted a color that's not going to let it reflect. It's the non-reflecting pool. Everything he does is shoddy and haphazard and unplanned and with a huge whiff stink of corruption attached to it. And then telling them, I don't really care about you is really, I think, disastrous. It's why his numbers are going down is nobody believes him about anything that he says, except that he doesn't care about you. And I think that's a, I agree, the president should say things honestly, but I don't think this is honest.
Starting point is 00:35:59 I think this is just he could give a fuck is what he's saying to you and doesn't have any plan except for disaster. Well, there's the perception and there's the reality. And I think the perception, after kind of eight or ten very bad weeks for the president, I think he's actually had a good couple weeks. I do think he looks presidential with Xi, although nothing got accomplished other than some saber rattling from Xi. The Virginia, I think Virginia is a big deal. The Supreme Court rejecting the attempt to redistrict. I think he's had actually a decent couple weeks. I actually don't.
Starting point is 00:36:32 I think the Supreme Court's going to give it to Virginia because it gave it to everybody else. And I think it's going to turn ship. I'm sorry, can it give it to Virginia? It's going to the Supreme Court. That decision is going, the Supreme Court has to decide. Oh, you think the redistricting will be allowed? Yes, I think it'll be allowed. And because they've allowed it everywhere else.
Starting point is 00:36:48 It's very hard not to allow it if they've allowed it everywhere else. And they agree with Texas. this. As we said last week, he can do whatever he wants cheating, but polling doesn't lie. And polling is showing that he can't outrun the polling no matter how many times he cheats. I think he has had a bad couple of weeks, actually. And he looks older and more addled than ever. I just, I think that this was a typical, he's just saying whatever is on his brain. He wasn't doing it to be, you know, tough with the American. And he didn't do it with care. I don't care with anybody's. Like, I don't think about anyone's financial situation. I don't, I don't
Starting point is 00:37:22 think about anybody, that's ridiculous. And we were safer before and we're less safe now. Once the last time you think he had a good two weeks, Gara? When he won. Okay. When he won. I don't think it's, I think this has been a,
Starting point is 00:37:37 I thought part of his first term, some of the stuff was okay. So it's been 78 weeks of constant? No, I do think, no, I think when he won, I think when he won, and he had a real opportunity. It was a year and a half ago. Yeah, I think it's been like a series of, like, the, One forgets the immigration disasters, the shooting of U.S. citizens, all the stupid people he's hired, the drunken Cash Patel, the lunacy of RFK, I don't think there's any, well, we shouldn't have dyes in our food. Yes, sounds good. Like, I don't know what to say. I think it's a very small little wins. And I think the stock market's done well, but I don't think it's, I think it's detached from everyone else's experience. And, you know, billionaires have had a good time. That's for sure. Tech billionaires. But this rise in inflation to me is the only thing that matters at this moment for most people.
Starting point is 00:38:27 What people miss, we're very focused on unemployment, and we think that unemployment causes unrest. It's actually not unemployment that causes the greatest levels of unrest. It's what really upsets people and moves them to political action and sometimes even some form of revolution, which I think we're already in, is not people who aren't working. It's people who are working and yet still hungry. And that's what's going on here. The unemployment rate is 4.5%. That's not what ails America.
Starting point is 00:38:57 What ails America is that people have two jobs and can't afford health care. So when now we have inflation or prices outpacing wages, that just translates to the following. The quality of your life goes down. And the problem is America, and I lay a lot of this, Trump doesn't have the IQ or the integrity or the honesty to do this or the confidence around him. But I would also argue that America isn't ready for an adult conversation because if you're going to be serious about inflation, it's very long-term difficult things.
Starting point is 00:39:33 There's a relationship between essentially the economy breaks into three buckets. There's labor, that is the earners, there's shareholders, the owners, and then there's consumers. And because of a lack of antitrust, because of tax policy, we have decided to massively transfer power and economic well-being from consumers and earners or laborers to shareholders. And everything we do, every tax policy, keeping minimum wage low, riding off all cap-backs, subsidizing certain industries, everything is about how do we consistently take money from earners, who minimum wage was 725, 15 years ago, it's still 725. Despite the fact that the
Starting point is 00:40:15 NASDAQ is quadrupled and push more and more money into shareholders. And also the most boring thing that no one wants to talk about is that when you go from 12 chicken companies to three, when you go, when you let pharmaceuticals consolidate, when you let health systems consolidate, when you let health care verticalize, when you let one company control 90% of search, 50% of e-commerce, 78% of social media, they will extract greater and greater rents from consumers and earners and transfer it to owners. It requires antitrust, it requires really interesting or more severe, quite frankly, entitlement policy
Starting point is 00:40:57 where we reduce our entitlements. You're gonna have to reduce the military budget. You're gonna have to increase taxes, 40% AMT across corporations and millionaires, and then slowly but surely, create more competition, lower rents on consumers and a transfer of capital back from the owners to the earners. But the American public doesn't have a political election cycle that creates a serious conversation around these things.
Starting point is 00:41:20 No, I get that. I get that. I'm talking about people feeling it, like, at all levels. And you do, you do when you go out. I mean, I was, I know it sounds dumb, but I do, I do, I man and I split the grocery shopping, but I went to get a quarter milk, and I was like, what? It was like six or seven dollars. And I was like, are you fucking kidding me? And it's not just looking at the gas pumps. Or there was something, I was in an airport and there was a sandwich, and they were like, $14. I'm like, what? Like, it was, it was. It was, you know, I didn't get it. I was like, well, that's a lot of money for a sandwich, like kind of thing. And so I don't begrudge them having to raise prices. It's that it was, it's just, I think people who are price-resist, like price insensitive are noticing it. You can't help. Unless you're just holed up in your house, you can't help but notice things have gotten a lot more expensive. But there's shock and there's a reduction in the quality of life, and then there are threats to your own personal safety.
Starting point is 00:42:18 Correct. And those, when you see Affordable Care Act subsidies go away, you have someone who's literally dependent upon diabetes medication for their life, see their insurance bill go from $178 a month to $1,700. And it's as if the government has said to them, we don't care that you're working hard. We've decided that you're going to die. And those are the, I think those are the kind of what I would call, you're going to have, I think we have bad economic policy that results in a business.
Starting point is 00:42:48 inflation and a decline of prosperity. What is unacceptable is that someone is worried when someone starts rationing their prescription medication. That should not happen in America. Or cuts off, you know, there's a really upsetting story in the New York Times, a woman writing about her kid who died of cancer. But like, they've cut pediatric cancer things. And so these, you can't get in these studies because they don't, they suddenly disappear,
Starting point is 00:43:15 these advanced studies and everything. because, you know, he doesn't say we're not going to help pediatric cancer anymore. What he says is we're cutting all over the place. So, in essence, that's what we're doing. Anyway, the rise of inflation comes as Kevin Warsh takes the reins. As Fed Chair, Warsh was narrowly confirmed by the Senate this week in a 54 to 45 vote. It's usually an unanimous, which is where we are. He's certainly qualified.
Starting point is 00:43:40 The question is most people don't think the rates are going to be cut. And so juggling this inflation with Trump's demands to lower interest rates, Most people think he will not be lowering interest rates at this moment, given the inflation numbers are so high and there's no signs that they're going down. Just very quick thoughts on that. We like to talk about, we like to simplify things in the media that this guy's going to come in and cut rates, but people don't want to actually pay attention to the mechanics of the Federal Reserve. And that is, the Federal Open Market Committee is the one that decides whether to cut rates or not. So while the Fed chairman has the bully pulpit and sets the agenda, he's He's one of 12, he's one of 11 or 12 votes. And Powell is still there, as you said. Yeah. So, no, interest rates. Kevin Warsh, while, you know, a really disappointing testimony at a Senate confirmation hearing,
Starting point is 00:44:30 he's not stupid. And he doesn't want to go down in history is the guy that ignited an upward spiral of inflation. Yeah. So there's not going to be a rate cut. And as a matter of fact, Cal she says there's a 72% likelihood. There's no rate cuts for the rest of the year. because you still, these Fed governors don't want to be known as the people that they created breadlines.
Starting point is 00:44:51 Yep. And when you have, when you come off a print of 3.8 percent, there's no fucking way. If someone, if Warsh started making noises that we should cut rates, those guys would go on background to journalists saying, this guy's fucking insane in threatening a Wimar Republic like inflationary economy here. Yeah. I mean, I think it's the deficit and everything else. Maybe they shouldn't consult Zoran Mamdani who balanced the New York.
Starting point is 00:45:14 What did he cut? I'm curious. I haven't been following it. Some consultant stuff, a bunch of things. He's doing a rather good job with services. He opened the streets for the soccer, the FIFA matches. He, in front of schools, he closed off streets so kids could play soccer, like learn to play soccer and brought in all these soccer players and stuff. It's very good at services, this guy. I'm just saying, I think Trump's got to focus in on providing services to citizens. That's what you're talking about, the idea of that people get something out of government, and it's not to be kicked in the fucking teeth. And I think really the difference between lots of cities and a lot of both Republican and Democratic
Starting point is 00:45:51 Senate governors and mayors who are providing people better services in a smarter way. Anyway, that's to me is the goal for everybody. Anyway, we're going to go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the biggest donors for the midterms. Support for the show comes from Clavio. There's only so many hours in a day. Clavio's two powerful AI agents can make sure your team spends them on big things. The first Clavio AI agent turns your marketing ideas into reality.
Starting point is 00:46:24 Instantly. Describe what you want, a holiday campaign, a VIP reengagement series, and Clavio builds it instantly, email, SMS, and push. All coordinated, on-branded, in 14 years of Clavio marketing data. Nothing goes live without your say-so. The other Clavio AI agent keeps your customers happy at any hour, brand-trained to answer questions, make product recommendations, and handle orders and returns, no hold music.
Starting point is 00:46:48 Marketing that launches instantly, support that never sleeps. Join more than 193,000 brands, including Away, Patrick Ta, and Dollar Shave Club, already growing with Clavio, the autonomous B-C-C-R-M. Get started at K-L-A-V-I-O.com. Buzzwords like progressive and affordability are thrown around all the time in politics. But what do they actually mean? For me, being a progressive means at least two things. One, being willing to unite lots and lots of people,
Starting point is 00:47:28 all of the folks that are getting screwed over against the powers that be that are making your life worse. And then second, being progressive is essentially a hopeful enterprise. That you think, I think that the world can be much better, that we don't have to settle for crumbs or settle for the status quo. And is there a difference between what it means? to the elected officials and what it means to the people. So money is essentially the root of everything.
Starting point is 00:47:54 I don't care if you're gay. I don't care if you have all that. That's like secondary, third. Like that doesn't, that's not a priority. That's this week on America Actually. Let's begin. Complex and unprecedented, the Spanish authorities are calling it. Passengers who'd been stuck aboard the Hanta or maybe Hanta virus-stricken Dutch cruise ship
Starting point is 00:48:21 disembarked in the Canary Islands this weekend, prompting the highest stakes game of where are they now since maybe COVID? Some of the evacuees, American and French, have since tested positive for the virus. And yet public health officials seem remarkably calm. We do have one individual who was taken to the biocontainment unit early, early this morning. And we assessed that individual. They are doing well. Possibly because this is not the one to freak out over. Today, Explain drops every weekday afternoon. Scott, we're back. The biggest donor for the 2026 midterms may or may not surprise you. It's Andresen Horowitz.
Starting point is 00:49:17 The VC firm and its co-founders, Mark Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, have already spent more than $115 million this election cycle outspending both George Soros and Elon Musk. Most of the money is spent on the right. It's Musk, Jeff Yass, and these two. Soros is the opposite, but much smaller in comparison. A major chunk of that money is going towards pro-crypto and pro-AI super PACs. What a surprise. which's where their investments are. Trump and the GOP are also benefiting. Adreason Horowitz and his founders have together donated roughly $12 million to Trump's Super PAC, MAGA, Inc. And a trust link to Mark Anderson gave nearly $900,000 to the Republican National Committee in March. You know, not a surprise. I mean, not that this guy has moved, you know, firmly. It's mostly Mark, but Ben is right along with him, as always, because he's this little follow puppy.
Starting point is 00:50:07 Just typical. Just typical. I mean, this is not a surprise. And then he tells nonsensical stories about how he went right, none of which are true. Your thoughts? It's smart. It's wrong, but it's smart. It's the greatest ROI any firm can get right now.
Starting point is 00:50:23 I think he's figured it out. This is pay for play. And by the way, Horowitz used to give a lot of money to when he thought Kamla was going to give money to Kamla. He did. Mark used to be a big gore person, as I recall, a long time ago. He wasn't ever. People are like, oh, it used to be Democratic. I was like, if you spent any time with him, he would certainly.
Starting point is 00:50:41 wasn't. He certainly was, he was, Mark is one thing which is self-interested in the most extreme way you're ever going to meet someone. He's very interested. That's called a corporation. I agree. But I'm saying it's really quite, it's really quite, he doesn't even pretend. He's really the most selfish person ever. I've got to get it, but I mean, it's about incentives. It's just, if the greatest ROI, if you're the CEO of a company or the head of a venture capital firm and the greatest ROI on any spending is not hiring more people, it's not investing in, it's not investing in plan property equipment, it's to give money to a president who will pass legislation or block legislation that takes the value of your portfolio companies up $10, 20, 30 billion dollars.
Starting point is 00:51:23 That $15 million investment is the best money you can invest. Absolutely. I agree. Again, it's the boring shit. Term limits on the Supreme Court, no gerrymandering, get rid of Citizens United. Until we do those things, you're going to have strong men or women or fascism from the far left or the far right. You're always going to have it. And we're outraged at Andresen Horowitz. Sores, okay, there'll be Democrats that'll do.
Starting point is 00:51:54 I bet Jensen Huang is about to write a $300 million check to somebody. Who knows? You know, it's interesting because, look, they have shifted, right? But my point is, Mark was never, never liked anybody. Like, that's all I'm saying is. He does now. He never does. He likes himself and his things, and that's it.
Starting point is 00:52:12 It's very, I agree with you. It's the right corporate thing to you. I've never met someone who is so anti-people in my life. Like, just has such disdain for humanity in a way that's really remarkable, actually. It just doesn't like anybody, like, essentially. And he would do it to the left or right, depending on what suited him. Someone was asking me, well, there are left-wing people are going to give me any. I'm like, I don't want, who knows what they're going to be next?
Starting point is 00:52:37 week. And I don't want any, like, individual, rich person left or right to be able to take advantage of this way. It seems unfair. Other people don't get an audience with the president, and they have an unnecessary advantage based on money, and that's kind of gross in some ways. It should be a gross. Elon Musk, after the SpaceX IPO, might be worth between $700 billion and a trillion dollars. If he takes one percent of his wealth or $10 billion with his commandant, he's, he's worth. and a technology, he can decide who the next resident is. He can. That's what I mean. Is that what you want?
Starting point is 00:53:13 Taxes are, our Kevlar and our vaccine, from power. We need to stop thinking about taxes as something that is inherently evil and slows down the economy. That's bad taxation. Taxation protects us from, I don't want to call them billioners because I don't want to demonize them. Taxes protect us from an unhealthy aggregation of power. Due to money. 100%. Yeah. We shouldn't have any individual.
Starting point is 00:53:43 I don't care if it's Soros. I don't care if it's unions. I don't care if it's Lorraine Powell Jobs, although I think she's a wonderful woman. And I'm not, this isn't a character assessment. You can't have an individual with this much power. And taxes are the only way, our only protection are Kevlar against the aggregation of this type of power. and Citizens United. I got to get rid of it.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Speaking of which, all my friends have decided you've become a lesbian because of Pietater. Piatta. Really? They were like, what? They were like, huh? They weren't expecting that? No, I was not either.
Starting point is 00:54:20 Oh, by the way, a lot of my friends are sending me messages like, what the fuck? Shut up, buddy. Pieter Tare. Scott is a lesbian from San Francisco now, speaking of virtue by issue. I get it, I get it. Speaking of them getting more money
Starting point is 00:54:35 besides Elon becoming a trillion. anthropics and talks to raise new funding that would value it up to $950 billion. If completed, the company's valuation would be 2.5 times what it was just three months ago and higher than OpenAI's valuation of $852 billion. Of course, there's the overhang of that trial with Open AI right now. It's a huge thing overinflated. I don't know. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:54:59 Look, we've never seen a company scale like that. And we've also never seen Pepsi overtake. or Avis overtake hurts as quickly. We've never seen this type of transition or pivot or reversal in fortunes. And also, I still think Open AI's valuation, IPO is probably going to be a hit. So get this. In March of 2025, Anthropics valuation was $61 billion. So it's up 15fold.
Starting point is 00:55:29 It's up 15fold in the last year. A lot of parties in Silicon Valley. Well, okay, it was $9 billion. an annual recurring revenue in December. Last month it was 30 billion. They think this month it's on track to reach 50 billion. For the first time, more businesses are using Anthropic than Open AI, 35% versus 32.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Anthropics' business adoption quadrupled over the past year while Open AIs grew basically flat. And so a board decision on this financing is expected later this month with a, and they think the IPO might happen as early as October. Yeah, it's the fall. Calce is saying it's the 70% chance it goes public this year. And then there's also a 60% chance that they have the best AI model at the end of the year.
Starting point is 00:56:15 I don't know what that means. Look, I don't, this company is, it's just absolutely firing on all cylinders. Having said that, my thesis is that go long, GLP1 and short, AI, because I don't think, I think it's impossible to maintain a lead in AI with AI. And that is, if you look at the technical specifications, it's moving more towards parity than differentiation. And I think it's going to be difficult for anyone company to maintain a technical lead here. And that that will drive down margins. And then when these open-weight AIs, when she starts engaging in AI dumping, which is what I would do if I were him,
Starting point is 00:56:52 I think it's going to drive down their margins. And the good news is, I think, similar to vaccines or PCs or jet transportation, the winners will be us, not these companies. There'll be one or two companies that will dominate. Probably Anthropic is one of them at this point. Interestingly, probably Google is the other. Yeah, it'll be really interesting. But when you look, we have become used to any innovation resulting in a small number of companies capturing trillions of dollars
Starting point is 00:57:19 in shareholder value. Again, my thesis is that AI might be more like jet transportation vaccines and PCs and that no one company is able to sequester a shareholder value. Yeah, I get your point. So it would be funny if Apple spent nothing and ends up benefiting them off, which is probably going to do that. Yeah, it'll be 100%. That's sweet. Just last thing, Google, speaking of Google is in talks with SpaceX for a rocket launch deal that put orbital data centers in space. The deal is based on currently unproven technology that Elon said is the next
Starting point is 00:57:47 frontier for his rocket company. I kind of like this idea. It's totally unproven. And Google has a history of investing in wacky schemes. At one point, they had, they were investing, this sounds like a Sergei Bryn thing happening here. They used to beef over some girl, but Now they're getting along, I suppose. Anyway, this is something. Google has done this. They had wind up in wind kites at one point. They were going to do a chairlift in San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:58:13 Cisco, they had a ship, an energy ship parked off the city in San Francisco. This is nothing. It feels like, it smells like Sergey Brin to me. And so he would try anything, and this would seem cool to him. So, sure, why not? Why not invest in it? What's the difference? If it works, it works.
Starting point is 00:58:32 It doesn't. It doesn't. I think these guys, they want to put chips down and options on anything they don't have insight into so they can get investor updates, have a chance to work with them. It's smart. Everything is so interconnected, those graphs that look like, you know, a gods eye. I remember those in the 70s where everyone is invested in everybody else and everybody's suing everybody else. Yeah, just like Anthropic is doing a deal with Musk. Everyone was like, how do you, Dario?
Starting point is 00:58:57 I'm like, are you kidding? Of course he did. Of course they do. They don't. They like beef and then they, oh. It's like the mob. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
Starting point is 00:59:11 This week on criminal, a man leaves his girlfriend at the top of a mountain. He's charged with her death. And then at the trial, his ex-girlfriend testifies that the same thing had happened to her too. She screamed. She felt dizzy. And at that moment she realized she was completely alone, Thomas apparently left her. On our other show, This is Love. of a story of another couple on a mountain.
Starting point is 00:59:39 There's no ledges. There's... You're trapped. Had confidence that there's no way this many things can go wrong in a row. You can listen to both episodes right now on Criminal and This Is Love, wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:59:54 This week on Networth and Chill, we're diving into another edition of Am I the Asshole, Finance Edition? And trust me, these money dilemmas will have you questioning everything. I'm breaking down real stories. from real people who are navigating financial situations that range from mildly awkward to absolutely unhinged. And I'm giving you my unfiltered take on who's in the right and who needs a serious
Starting point is 01:00:20 reality check. Because let's be real, when it comes to mixing relationships and finances, someone's always asking if they're the asshole. Learn how to set boundaries, protect your wealth, and avoid becoming the villain in your own financial story. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com slash you're rich BFF. Hey, it's Frances Lam, host of the Splendid Table Podcast. Every week on our show, we celebrate the intersection of food and life. And this month, we're highlighting some of those iconic people in the food world. It's a new collection called Culinary Masters, and we revisit interviews with some of the people who have really changed how many of us cook and think about food. People like Martin Yan.
Starting point is 01:00:58 When I was so small in the first few years, I can only work and help out to wash a vegetable to cut up something. And I help to bone the chicken. So that's why now I can bone a chicken in 18 seconds. Dr. Jessica B. Harris? Well, you know, I now know that it was neither the iron pots nor the wooden spoons, but there were multiple unspoken and as yet still unheralded, and in many cases unknown gifts that Africa gave to the cooking of not only this hemisphere but the world. And Claudia Rodin, to name a few.
Starting point is 01:01:32 Why is this dish here? Who was here before? what kind of life did the peasants have? That's why this dish is the way it is. Search for the Splendid Table in your podcast app to listen to the series now. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I will note that people should, something we have talked about
Starting point is 01:01:55 and have been in our predictions, a New York Times investigation, which you should all read, found that over 80 polymarket users have placed bets with suspicious characteristics and won money across nearly 30 topics. The insider trading stuff of this stuff is just getting started on all these predictions markets.
Starting point is 01:02:10 So we thought this might happen, but just please go read that because it's a really interesting piece. Go ahead, Scott, predictions. So my prediction, chipmaker Sarah Brousman public today at a $40 billion valuation, and that's up from its $23 billion valuation in February and $8 billion in 2025. And I believe it's over. I believe it's playing into this massive historic run-up in chips. and after an initial pop, I think it'll fall.
Starting point is 01:02:38 Since last year, its revenue has increased less than 2x, while its valuation has increased sixfold. And the $40 billion valuation implies a 76 times revenue multiple. In other words, this shouldn't be a public company. It's drafting off of what has been an unprecedented increase in value in the sector. So as an example, Nvidia trades at 26 times revenues and still controls 85% of the AI chip market and is growing fast. Cerebrus tried to go public in 2024, but with Drew,
Starting point is 01:03:09 they're filing at the last minute over intense scrutiny of its heavy reliance on a single customer, the Emirati AI firm G-42. I don't remember if you remember these guys. It's basically like actual giant big chips, physical giant big chips. It strikes me as quite frankly a shitty company. And this is simply massively benefiting
Starting point is 01:03:30 from an unprecedented updraft in chip stocks. And anyways, my point, prediction is that the initial pop, this company, which I think is actually a fairly mediocre chip company trading at 78 times revenue, is not going to sustain. I like a highly specific stock thing. And then that same customer, which makes up the lion's share of the revenue, Group 42, accounted for 24% of revenue last year, and state-owned UAE University accounted for 62% of revenue. Given what's going on in the UAE, given their dependence on one customer, given the
Starting point is 01:04:04 76 times revenue. This feels like one of those bad Chinese firms that could just go down 95%. Well, that's a good warning for people. Anyway, there's a lot of froth happening for sure, and so it's hard to separate the good from the bad. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot. To submit a question for the show, call 85551 Pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week on Profitie Market, Scott spoke with Oswath Demoteren. professor of finance at NYU Stern School Business, one of Scott's favorites to break, and he's terrific, I think so too, to break down what's standing out to him in the markets so far this year.
Starting point is 01:04:44 He shared his thoughts on how the conflict with Iran could ripple through the economy. Let's listen to a clip. The catastrophic risk here is not that oil gas prices stay higher than they were before the conflict, is whether they'll go even further up, because there is a chance of that happening. I think if in many ways what the market seems to be building in is the economy can survive with gas prices being $4.50 or $5, depending on what part of the country you're in, and that it might not be as robust as you thought it was three months ago, but it's okay. But I think the worry still remains that this crisis, well, it's in a slow boil at any point in time
Starting point is 01:05:26 could become a fast boil, at which point you could say, what happens to earnings now? Yeah, that's interesting. $4.55. I've seen $6.7 now. It's really across lots of cities. Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Starting point is 01:05:43 We'll be back next week. Today's show was produced by Lara Nam and Zillemar, St. Taylor Griffin, and Todd Weissman. Ernie Intert engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Bros. Brose, Ms. Civarra and Dancin, Insh, Microsoft. executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Box Media. We'll be back next week
Starting point is 01:06:00 for another breakdown of all things, Doc and business. Kara, have a great weekend. Support for this show comes from Harvey A.I. The future of law is Agenic, not just tools that assist, but AI agents that navigate complex matters. That's why Harvey created agents that can do the work from end to end. They build a plan, pull from the secure data sources, run subagents in parallel and draft work product ready for your review. So you can delegate work and own the judgment. Trusted by more than 60% of the AM Law 100 and leading Fortune 500 legal teams, Harvey is an AI operating system designed specifically for legal work.
Starting point is 01:06:46 Harvey, AI, tailored for law. Learn more at Harvey.aI. Behind every F-35 jet is a Canadian company. Horizontal tails built in Winnipeg, engine sensors from Ottawa, and stealth composite panels crafted in loose. to name just a few. Thanks to thousands of skilled Canadian workers, the F-35 aircraft is delivering unmatched capabilities for 20 allied nations around the world and will generate more than $15.5 billion in industrial value for Canada. This ad is sponsored by the F-35 partner team, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, and RTX. Learn more at www.f35.com slash Canada.

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