Pivot - Walmart wants to buy TikTok, Amazon unveils its fitness tracker, and Kara and Scott catchup on the big stories of August

Episode Date: September 1, 2020

Kara and Scott are reunited to talk about Walmart joining forces with Microsoft in a bid to buy TikTok. They also discuss Amazon's new fitness tracker product, Halo, and how it may be a back door attempt to bolster the company's healthcare endeavors. In Friend of Pivot, Kara and Scott catch up on some of the big stories they missed while Scott was on vacation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi,

hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure. Hi, everyone. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. What are the biggest stories? Let's just get on with it. Just kidding. Cue the music, Rebecca. Oh, no. It's the dog. Where is he then? Where has El Perro been?

I told you it's not El Perro for the last place. Well, he found a hole in the backyard. He dug under it. And he's been helping those nippers next door. And when I say bitches, I mean those purebred standard oodles. That's right. The question becomes, does tick talk when it's in the forest, when the dog's not around? Does Google certificate when the hound's not around? No, absolutely not. It is time for the only planet that circles a hot

plasmatic sphere of 7 billion trillion tons to begin again. Technology can now progress. We can now get back to work because the- Oh my God. I am aroused, Kara. Oh my God. I'm aroused.

I haven't been disaroused. You know when the last time I was disaroused? Oh, I had so many adults here all of August and now you're back. You missed me, didn't you? I haven't been disaroused since I snorted, crushed up Cialis, watched a pancreas movie on VHS, and then stuck a cattle prod up my ass. I like to call it a Tuesday night. I'm kidding.

A Tuesday night. I am a rebel. All right. All right, sir. Nipples on my brain are hard, Carol. They're hard. And by the way, from the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is most definitely not Andrew Ross Sorkin. It's not any of them.

Oh, my God. I'm exhausted. It's all so quiet about you. Oh, my God. I'm exhausted. I feel like I'm going to have a stroke. Are you done? Where's my male American Samoan nurse, Garfield?

I need soup and a cuddle. I need a scuttle. I need soup and a cuddle. Listen. I need soup and a cuddle. Listen. We're going to do a catch-up segment so you can show off your voluminous brain

that's been sitting on the beach in Nantucket for whatever you're doing there. How are you feeling? How was your vacation, by the way? I can't discern anymore. I don't have, every day is sort of a mild vacation and mildly at work. I'm just sort of in this netherland.

Yeah, that's where everybody is. Where are we? We're still at COVID. But now with an extra helping of riots and right-wing people fighting, left-wing people with guns, it's, you know,

riots in the streets. No, it's, things haven't gone, look what happens when I leave. The world gets worse. The world is getting worse. Anyway, we have a lot to talk about now that Elon Musk

is now officially worth $100 billion, which is half of Jeff Bezos' wealth, who is wealthier than ever. He has $200 billion. So that happened while you were away. And the Tesla stock is splitting like everything. I think that call of yours wasn't perhaps a good one many a year ago, two years ago. Oh, that's funny because no one ever brings that up, that I said Tesla was going to crash

in $300. No, no one ever brings that up. What do you make of this? And also split right apple's doing a split like who knows if what's with all this splitting there's splitting everywhere there's all this splitting and all this money being made by these tech companies yeah it's the tesla one is really i mean if you think about him becoming worth 100 billion dollars what's happened in the last five months so yeah middle of march tesla was the fourth most valuable automobile company in the world behind Volkswagen. I'm sorry, behind Toyota, Volkswagen and Daimler.

And then fast forward five months later, just in 18 weeks, they are now number one and worth more than Toyota, Daimler and Volkswagen combined. Yes, they are. Yeah, it is. And by the way, the company. And they make a fraction of the cars, but they're good cars. A fraction, like a skosh of the cars. But as we always talk about, COVID being an accelerant. And not only that, look on the other side.

There are losers there. When the economy's not growing, there are losers. Exxon, which was the most valuable company in the world, just I think 10, 15 years ago ago is now not even in the top. I don't even think it's in the top. Nobody's moving. So the whole world has said, let's look forward 10 years and envision a future. I mean, it's just so.

I also have to monitor that NYU talks about stocks being a component of narrative and numbers. And typically the numbers are about 78% of the value and the narrative is 20%. And it's totally flipped. It's totally flipped. He calls Tesla correctly, a story stock. And the story is just so compelling and so interesting. Well, I think people have decided this is the electric vehicle. This is the only company and the competitors are not even close, right? I mean, that's really pretty much what's happening. And it's really interesting. When the data changes, I change my mind. And you think about Tesla. I have a Tesla. I have a Model X. If you think about it, it's one of the few cars where you actually, it does get better with software updates. And if you look at the depreciation, it's actually less than the depreciation on other cars, meaning that even though it's a huge cost up front, it may be economical.

And I'll tell you one thing I don't miss. And you know what the gangster kind of feature of a Tesla is? Never going to a gas station again. I think gas stations are the worst retailer in America. You love that car, right? A lot of people do. The issue people who own Teslas have is with service. They said the service wasn't as good.

But I think most people who have them love them. It's like a Peloton. They like it. It's a product they like. And these are obviously wealthy people. What's interesting is a lot of people are saying if you can't play the Tesla stock market, if you're too scared of it, look at their manufacturers that make parts for them. And there's a whole bunch of companies that make things.

Brembo is brakes. AGC Automotive is windshields. Fisher Dynamics makes power seats, all kinds of. Apparently, there's ZF length system, power steering mechanism. So people are saying to do that. I think the issue is people are saying this is the electric car company of the future, and therefore we're going to buy it. What happens, though? It just stays here?

I want you to go out on a limb here. What occurs when it just doesn't make that much money? It just is worth that? It just stays worth that? What do you imagine is going to happen? First off, I want to acknowledge that whatever I say, you should do the opposite.

I just, I've never been this wrong, except for my personal life, I get Tesla more wrong than anything anyone has ever done before. I thought it was crazy at 700 bucks a share. You're jealous of him. Are you jealous of him? Am I jealous of him?

Are you jealous of him? I think he has a pretty good life. I wouldn't say, I don't know if I'm jealous of him. Yeah, okay, I'm jealous of him. I'd like to. He did the neural link yesterday too, two days ago. They put the neural link in a pig. I don't get that shit.

Would you put a neural link in your head? Maybe you need a neural link at some point. Oh, bring it. The shit I put on my brain through different means, yeah, I'll put in a link. Yeah. Turn me on. All right. Okay, well, we're putting him in pigs now, so.

Good one. All right. Okay. Well, we're putting them in pigs now. So you said at least 10 penis related things in four seconds. I let you do that today. You only get one. Don't judge me. You only get to do one, an episode. And I gave you several. So you're done. Okay. No more offensive penis related things.

All right. Is that okay? Can you do that? All right. Speaking of that, let's do what we do best, break down some big stories. Okay. Walmart joins the growing number of companies in bids to buy TikTok. Late last week, Walmart teamed up with Microsoft, what a strange pair, to buy up the Chinese app.

A deal with Microsoft and Walmart could turn TikTok into an e-commerce app for both creators and users, according to the company Insider, to make a decision whether to sell to Oracle or to Walmart. Microsoft bid in coming days, possibly by tomorrow, as we come closer to the Trump administration's mid-September sale deadline, which they're both chafing against. Insiders at Microsoft told me that they have better technology, a better price, and are able to make it secure within a year. They are impugning Oracle's ability to do so. But Oracle has very close ties with the White House, probably closer, maybe not as close. Well, Doug McMillan's pretty close to the White House, too. So what do you make of this? Why Walmart?

And then what do you think? So, and give me some running room here because because this is a weird metaphor, but I believe that moving forward, I think the primary value of education is certification. And I think that in 10 years, you're going to have kids apply to MIT and Harvard, not go and put on their LinkedIn profile, accepted to MIT. Because at the end of the day, all we're really doing is organizations is certifying people that they got into what is probably the finest filter admissions process in the world. We're just giant HR screening. And the moment you get in, that's the value.

And I think that basically Oracle and Walmart announcing that they're an acquisition, the rationale is why would they buy it? Because they can't. And I don't think they will. I don't think they'll go to college. It makes absolutely no sense for Oracle, but Oracle has the cloud infrastructure, the security, and they have the primary attribute, and that is they're buddies with Donald Trump. In addition, just as you would get a bump in your net present value of your earnings potential when people find out you got into MIT, whether you went or not, announcing that you are in talks, serious discussions, and you are capable of owning TikTok took Microsoft's market

capitalization up $50 billion. It took Walmart's up $25 billion. So the 33rd largest, most valuable company in the world is the company that has been formed off a rumor. So that's why you wanted to bid for it. You offered money, right? Why wouldn't you? Yeah. How much did you go up? Like $25? Why wouldn't you and I start a SPAC with Paul Ryan, David Hasselhoff, and Stitch from... And then announce that we're raising a half a billion dollars SPAC, we're going to lever it up with pull-put options on Robinhood and we're in serious negotiations with TikTok. And if we could find a public vessel

to communicate that investor relations through, we might add billions of dollars in market cap. So why do any of these companies... These are the ones who are going to buy it. Which one do you think is going to get it?

Which one is it? Make the case for each of them. I mean, they have to sell because the government is making them. So this is where we are. Okay. Okay. See, this is where the dog howls at the moon and everyone says, oh, he was so weird when he was doing that.

And I go, no, he wasn't. He was genius. He was genius. Carrie, you heard it here first. And this is the kind of thing I might look stupid by 5 p.m. today. No one's going to buy it. Okay. You said that.

Xi Jinping plays for the long game. This is the mother of all head fakes. You think the global geopolitical superpower, China, by the way, is going to be forced into the sale of a Chinese asset because a guy who potentially is going to be booted out of office in 68 days wants them to? This is what they're doing. They're telling their bankers, yeah, go tell Microsoft they're interested. It's already been delayed 90 days, meaning that the decision or the legal ramifications or the legal pressure to sell

will be after the election. I'm like, yeah, pretend we're selling it. Walk around, tell the orange man he's handsome. Go hang out on Bill Ellison's loft. Talk to Microsoft. It's not going to get sold.

It's not going to get sold. It was Larry Ellison. Now, everyone says it's a fair. It's not going to get sold. It's not going to get sold. Now, everyone says it's a fair complete, it's going to be sold. But let's, okay, so let's pretend it might. Who does it make sense for? Yeah.

I mean, it's literally an exercise in creative thinking to try and figure out why Oracle would buy it other than to display their cloud-based technology. Now, I have absolutely no creative way of explaining why Oracle would buy this other than they can. They've got a big Trump donor. They've got the cloud technology. They've got the security, which is actually a big issue. And they've got the balance sheet. Their deal structure is creative. They basically said, we'll give you $10 billion in cash, and then we'll give you 50% of the profits. So it's almost like an investment as opposed to an acquisition,

which ByteDance, that's a ByteDance friendly move. Yes, and ByteDance does have investors in ByteDance. Carolannick. And Sequoia. Yeah. And then you have Walmart. And Walmart sort of in an alternative universe makes sense. Like, well, we want to turn it into social commerce.

The thing is TikTok's social commerce isn't as strong as their Chinese sister, Doyin. But that's tantamount. If you think that's a good strategy, that's tantamount. If Walmart said for the same amount of money they were going to buy Viacom, AMC Networks, and go vertical around content. And the reality is these companies, typically retailers, don't make great content companies. Red Bull is kind of the first manufacturer's brand that became a great content company. What about them getting into this space in advertising and to compete with Amazon? Because a little bit is advertising because Walmart's not there at all, and Amazon certainly is.

These are some things mentioned completely out of line for Walmart to own something like this. It just feels like if in three years this this thing was worth a fraction of itself. I agree. And it made no sense. You'd look back and say, well, of course it didn't make any sense. Walmart's going to be in the, the only way you can justify the purchase price would be to maintain those relationships with other advertisers. These companies are much better at figuring out how to ignore, delay and obfuscate all the toxicity. Doug McMillan is a good guy. When all of a sudden young men start getting radicalized on TikTok, Doug McMillan is going to basically say, and is nice. Which they've avoided.

You know, what the fuck were we thinking? They're not a media company. I mean, I guess Amazon became a media company, which is really impressive. But at the end of the day, the only two companies that probably could pull this off would be Facebook or Google, but they're not going to need to because they're not going to be allowed to buy it. And Xi Jinping plays the long game where our superpower is optimism. So they might announce, you think they might announce a deal and then it never happens. That's interesting. I think they probably will announce something.

That's interesting. But there is the lawsuit. There is also the lawsuit, which the courts could put a stay on this thing. Trying to block it. Yeah. So there's that. But they could announce it and then not do it. That would be very interesting.

That would be very interesting. And I wouldn't put it past them. But the notion that the Chinese, who think in 50-year increments, are going to be bullied into selling a Chinese asset. And by the way, when we were talking with Professor Wu the other day, it's hard for them to complain when they basically banned every technology app from the mainland. Yeah. They also made moves about that this weekend, about export of what makes it great, the algorithm,

whether they can export the actual algorithm out of China. That's another thing they may not allow. I've heard that just logistically they may not be able to do it, just trying to figure this out. What have you heard? What's your on-the-ground reporting tell us? I've heard that just logistically they might not be able to do it. Just trying to figure this out. What have you heard? What's your on-the-ground reporting tell us?

Microsoft feels like it has the technology to do so. And they realize that they are, I have to say, they're appropriately concerned about being able to move the technology. You know what I mean? They're like, it's really hard. They're not like pretending, oh, we can do it. I think the people at Oracle are like, we can do it. They're quite confident in their consumer ability without any consumer experience, which is pretty much on brand for Oracle in that regard. I think that everybody would like a delay and it take longer, I think, but that's not, you know, Trump is, you know, moving around for any topic. He's obviously settled on riots right

now. But he, this will make him look good. Like he's pushing around China, beating up China, and riots seem to be his two, the next 60 days of Trump or Biden riots or whatever they're calling them. And so, which of course is under President Trump's watch, but that's, you know, he's just obfuscating the disaster he's created here. And he wants to go to Kenosha, Wisconsin, by the way, which seems like ridiculous, you know, lighting of a fire there. But I think it's, I think they'll delay. I think you're right. I think there'll be a delay, but I do think there'll be an announcement and then it won't happen if Trump, if Trump loses. And if it does, they, it'll take longer. It'll just like most things, it'll peter out in that regard. And then we'll see. And they're hoping that TikTok itself peters out, like the people that it doesn't work as well, the product doesn't gain, that it doesn't remain as popular, you know, and then Facebook wins. And so it's kind of it's I find it the whole thing to be a shame the way this has been handled.

It could have been handled in such a much better way. But and I know Tim was was for it, but I don't agree with him. I think there was a way to do this that was much more conducive to innovation. Yeah, well, you've always said that this is not, I think the term is, this is not the beach to die on, that if we're going to do this, campaign slogan on this. And then I think the Biden people will put it in a drawer in a drawer because Peter Navarro is not running around the White House screaming. You know, even Steve Mnuchin would probably invest in it if he could, if he was still in Hollywood. Right. And be happy to do a deal with the Chinese. That's the thing. Like a lot of you here. You're exactly right. I think this deal is going to die a slow death. I don't think it's going to happen. happy. You're exactly right. I think this deal is going to die a slow death. I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen. Slow death. All right. Okay. All right, Scott, let's go to a quick break and come back to talk about Amazon moving into fitness tracking

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their investment approach, what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea? Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Okay, welcome back. Amazon is entering into the health and fitness world with their new subscription service and a tracker called halo you are my halo scott the fitness tracker band will measure an array of health metrics including body fat temperature and emotional tone that's going to like be off the charts for you the band will continuously have a microphone to capture

vocals tone. Amazon is obviously late in the game behind Apple and Google, but they're really weighing in here with a vocal tone. Both already have fitness trackers, apps, and watches. The global fitness tracker market is expected to reach over $91 billion by 2027. Of course, Fitbit is the big player here in terms of just a dedicated one. What thinks you of this, of them entering? You've talked about them entering the health and fitness space, but this seems particularly creepy. Yeah, the thing that was strange about the product is it's app-based, right?

There's no utility while you're wearing it. Then it just takes data and then talks to you. It seems to me between HIPAA compliance, PillPack, the tests they're running internally, all these moons are lining up and they're going to announce something very big. Like what? We'll insure you, but you have to wear this thing and we'll start making recommendations

around lifestyle changes, around diet. And by the way, we're the ones that carry all these products or maybe Amazon Prime Health. There's something we've been saying for a long time. I think Amazon's going to be the fastest growing healthcare company in the world. I was speaking- Healthcare. So you think this is a backdoor into healthcare? I don't think it's about- That they have all this- I don't think, I mean, Apple, I guess, you know, the honest answer is, I don't know. All I see is

all these troops amassing at the border of healthcare from Amazon. And it's not accident. They don't do anything by chance. It feels as if there's going to be some program or offering linked to Prime that's going to cut a swath through all these healthcare assets. Yeah. Why do they want this vocal? Well, you know, a lot of stuff about vocal can tell heart attack. I've talked to a lot of people who have some of these bands that, you know, you can tell the heart attack stuff. You can emotional tone, judges, prejudges, health, temperature, your body fat thing is interesting. Would you wear one, Scott? Can I put one on you so I can track you at all times? You're a saucy little thing. So you want to know

where the dog is. Yeah, I need to know what I wear. Yeah, I would. I would wear one if I thought I'm not as freaked out about the privacy side of it. I actually think Amazon has deserved some credit for not having a ton of crazy hacks or violating your privacy. I wouldn't, if it was from Facebook, I wouldn't wear it. But Amazon, if it was utility, and my guess is Amazon is part of Prime,

we'll start giving it out for free. Yeah, I would do it. I would do it. I put myself on the list, even though, you know, I put myself on the early list just to see it. I want to see it. I want to physically see this thing. I would do it. I would do it. I put myself on the list, even though, you know, I put myself on the early list just to see it. I want to see it. I want to physically see this thing. I don't know.

I don't, the vocal tone microphone on is a problem for me. Like that, that they would hear everything I said. And that's the, no, I do not. I unplugged them all. My son, when I told you went around and unplugged all the nests in the house. I mean, I just, it's a really interesting problem because I don't want the vocal. That's what got me was vocal tone, microphone, like that kind of stuff. And so I don't, I turn them all off.

I cover them on my computer. I don't, I'm really weird and paranoid about the cameras. No, I agree. You are weird and paranoid. I agree with both those things. But I mean, would you like them to have your, I mean, maybe. But it doesn't mean you're wrong. Look, I agree. I trust them. Look, I was just thinking the other day

I order from Amazon like five times a week, at least now, like at least, and I buy everything and I try to find it elsewhere and then I never do because it's not in the store, the actual thing I want. And Amazon typically has a better thing. You can see behind me my delightful

shag beanbag back there. I, it's, I, I, I find it really, I have a strong relationship with Amazon now, like a really strong one. And I, and I, I, every now and then I sort of, it's breathtaking how much stuff I order from them. They are my delivery service, 100%. And at the same time, now having my microphone vocal, I don't know. I don't know. Why doesn't it bother you? Tell me why it doesn't bother you. And then I'd love to sort of where you took the scenario from you have this tracker and then, and then, and then, and then. what type of your health in terms of coming up with programmatic recommendations around food and lifestyle and products that you might be, or even where to find you to deliver stuff to you. I don't, I don't, I think the location and fitness and all of this data is, is an

interesting thing they can sit, they can sit on top of. I'm like, the only thing that's useful about me is I don't care about my privacy being violated as long as there's a coupon or an interesting photo. Why? Why aren't you concerned? Why aren't you concerned? These riots are continuing. It looks a little authoritarian in this country. I'm feeling a little like Orban.

Why aren't you concerned? Are you, it's because you're just a white guy who never anything bad happens to? What is it, Scott? That's probably most of it. I don't I don't I don't think I think still think our institutions are stronger than that. And I think most of these companies other than I don't even think Facebook wants to violate your privacy. They just don't care about other people violating it as long as they get paid for it.

I don't think inherently these companies are interested in in tracking you other than for utility, and we get freaked out about it. But consumer behavior shows that privacy is, at least until lately, has been vastly inflated in terms of importance to the end consumer. I don't think our government, at least I may be very naive around this stuff, but I think it's too late even, even if you are concerned about it. Between the data Uber has on you, between your IP addresses, unless you're really sophisticated and can go off the grid, that ship is already sailed. And the government, if you test positive for certain diseases, it goes into a database. And the CDC has managed to keep that database secure. So I think that I actually, I don't

want to say I trust the government, but I'm trusting of the people who elect our officials. They occasionally make a mistake, but hopefully we can correct that mistake every four years. But no, I'm not worried. Why are you worried? Where do you see this going? He's 200 billion. He's the richest man in the history of the planet. The same thing I told when google was asking me

why i didn't trust him i'm like i who knows who's running your company someday like this is what it is when you just said something that really chilled me like they can deliver to you or they can find you and i know you can find some other cell phone but wow like you're like you're you're banding yourself like an animal like you know what i mean like just don't, I just think it's disturbing on every level. And I just, I guess I don't, which is interesting because you've been tweeting all about these riots and sort of the game that's being played here of fear and law and order. And I think it's orderly. This is an orderly solution. At the same time, the order is to keep the right people in power.

It's not, when they're talking about order, they're talking about the current order, not a different order. And so that's what I think is disturbing. Like, you know, I think that's really the problem. I just feel like in anybody's hands, like look at the face you were tweeting about it this weekend, Facebook and the problems around QAnon and stuff. I mean, you were talking about like, oh, we shouldn't have put those pages up for that kid to be on. And therefore, you know, and a lot of people, you know,

such a Baron Cohen that the operational difficulties, which they knew about, they read Casey Newton's pieces. I mean, come on. At some point, like, why do we trust these people? The thing I think that I don't want to say replaces trust, but I think capitalism here is a pretty strong motivator. And that is, I think there's more upside in handling people's data with a certain level of respect and using it for utility.

Whether, I mean, just think about Uber knows, if you just take Uber, like I do, they know where you've been at all hours of the day for the last three years. And they can reverse engineer it. Did you go to a family planning clinic? Did you go to a clinic that's for prostate care? They know your health. With a little bit of AI overlay, they would know a lot about what you're doing, what you're up to, where you're going, why, and then say, this person clearly is doing X, Y, and Z. But we've decided that we believe that the company has more interest in being wealthy and not damaging its reputation. How does this compete with Apple and Google?

Because I don't feel they're – I gave away my Apple Watch, and I never bought a Google one. So you think this is a backdoor into other things. Who will come out on top in this? Is it Fitbit? Because that's just a dedicated fitness company. Do they have to buy Fitbit or what? What do you, what do you imagine? I both thought wearables were dramatically overrated. Yeah. I call them unwearable technology. Yeah. Wearable tech. I mean, doesn't everyone has a drawer of all the wearables? I think

wearable technology is right up there with 3d printing and virtual reality. I don't think, I think the only wearable that's ever worked is the iPhone. And a lot of people would say the Apple watch is successful and I get it personally. I'm just not going to wear anything I can't charge. Also a watch for me isn't a time piece. It's a means of expressing my success and masculinity, i.e. Panerai, come to the dog, come to the dog. It's so sad. I don't, it is sad. It's pathetic and it's true and it works. But I don't think wearables, I think your iPhone is your wearable.

And if you think about the Apple Watch, I think it's just a second screen for the ultimate wearable, which is your iPhone. If Amazon could link it to the other stuff, and I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's fitness. I don't know if it's prime. I don't know if it's data

that makes your purchases more elegant such that you can get into, I was, Amazon was going to zero click ordering where I would like Amazon to just start sending me stuff without my permission, because I think they know what I want before I know it. And I think this might be a means of collecting that sort of data. If I'm, I mean, I'm in Nantucket right now. So everything I order on Amazon starts coming to Nantucket. And maybe I get an alert saying, how long are you here for? But I think they could start doing very interesting things.

And I think people are fine with their privacy being violated as long as there's utility at the end of it. You are correct on that. Unfortunately, it shouldn't be, given the current trends politically. I would not think that's a very good idea. That's what they get you with. Well, we don't have the power to make that stop. The demo in democracy, that might be over in 68 days. Yep, indeed.

And not only that, the incompetence of the Trump administration is also a certain level of safety. Yeah, but at some point there's going to be an intelligent version of this. So that's, maybe not, maybe not. I don't know. Anyway, that's a really sad thing. Anyway, but you think it's a backdoor to health care because we're going to get on to the next thing we're going to talk about. But you think it's a backdoor into other things. That's their move here. Look, the two greatest sources, these four companies now have to add not even $500 billion, but to grow into their market capitalizations now on any reasonable, when we return from 80% narrative and 20% numbers, when it flips back to something reasonable like 50% numbers, 50% narrative, to grow into their stock market valuations, these companies are going to have to add a combined trillion dollars in top line growth, even assuming operational leverage.

And there's only a few sectors where the carcass is big enough for that. Yeah, government, i.e. Palantir, saying we're going to replace government services. But the big kahuna here is 17 percent of GDP, and that's health care. And if you think about what COVID's done, think about it. Health care and education, it's a deck of cards. It's literally being thrown in the air right now. Yeah, you're right. I'm going to leave you on that smart thing, a deck of cards being thrown in the air. You remain as smart as ever.

But think about this. Go ahead. And it's not only, think about your consumer. Would you have been willing to basically have a life-threatening virus and then be comfortable with the notion that you're never going to go to the doctor's office? Now we are. Now we're like, well, this can be through our smartphones, through our phone.

I've been looking into this healthcare company called 98.6 because everything's iOS or Android. And the majority of venture capital is going to these high-end concierge services to pick off rich white people and say, we'll give you better healthcare for $2,500 a month. But the big opportunity is of course the Android, and that is to distribute healthcare away from hospitals and away from doctor's offices and onto the three and a half billion dollar phones, and then do it really inexpensively. I said this at the beginning

of this whole thing. I said, I wish Amazon was doing the testing. I would have been happy. It would have worked. It would have worked. You know? Yeah. I think that's coming. We're going to switch. There's still more Scott. More Scott.

It's all Scott today. You are my friend of Pivot. The original. You are my friend of Pivot. I would say mild acquaintance. I think you're my mild acquaintance in Pivot. You were so missed this past month. Let's do a catch up of what we missed for about 10 minutes. What story did you miss most that you wished you had talked about? We talked about a bunch of things on our on our on our pivot. I think that to talk politics, I think that the

Republicans have been really smart. I think that if the Democrats were smart, I think these protests represent a real problem for the DNC right now, specifically their anemic response to them and making excuses for looting. And regardless of how you feel about that and the justification for it, we will, America will elect a criminal rather than indoor criminality. America will rather, will opt for a lawless president versus lawlessness. And the opportunity for the Democrats that they have missed and they need to do right away is they need to get former Attorney General of the second largest justice department in America, Vice President Kamala Harris, or Vice President of Islamic Kamala Harris, and she needs to make a public announcement saying we are a nation that believes in peaceful protest. We are a nation that

has real racial injustice that needs to be addressed, but we are a nation of laws. And when I am Vice President and when Biden is President, we are going to put an end to any destruction of personal property or physical violence. This is unacceptable. This is the soft tissue the Republicans are exposing right now because people, again, they'll opt for a criminal over criminality. So I think that's a big story unfolding. I think it's the biggest risk to Biden or us not taking back the White House. The most overlooked story or the biggest story, in my view, is the beginning of the unbundling of the industrial education complex with Google certificates. The idea that for 300 bucks, you might get micro-certification, and that's not even the most exciting part about

this, Kara. The most exciting part about this is that the world's premier aspirational employer might take that certification and give it the same equivalence as the four-year degree. Because what people fail to realize when they talk about education is until the best employers in the world stop using a BA as the security pass to even get in the building, it's never going to change. College is going to maintain this stranglehold cartel on America's youth and our economy. Think about this. Only 30% of America has a college education. What percentage of people in influence in the media, in culture, in business? 98%. So until the best companies in the world start, like Google,

start saying, okay, get this, and it's the same as a BA, this is so exciting. I was on the phone this morning with the former governor of Illinois. He's getting into education. There are so many people now looking at education and thinking micro-certification, unbundling. Think about what happened to newspapers in the 90s. First, they unbundled the classifieds with Craigslist. Then they unbundled the movies. Then they unbundled the classifieds with Craigslist. Then they unbundled the movies. Then they unbundled the news. Can I ask you a question about this? This has really been a

bee in your bonnet and it's sticking in your craw. It's itching your pants, whatever. Any of these metaphors will work. Why do you want to get yourself away? This is like what you've been doing your whole life. You're a professor. And we talked to Sundar Pichai about this. And he, of course, was going to be a professor of marketing and then decided to do Google instead, which I thought was a good choice for him. You stayed a professor of marketing and these issues. So what is it just being there that you think it just doesn't work or you just feel like you're cheating kids and they don't need this? Because the reason I'm here with you. We're having a little therapy session here.

The reason I'm here with you, the reason I have a wonderful life is one, because I'm talented. I'm not modest. I put myself in the top 1%, but that puts you in a room, the population of Germany. The reason I'm here

is because of the generosity and vision of California taxpayers and the regents of the University of California that take the children of single mothers who live and die as secretary and give them incredible opportunities to attend world-class universities for a total of $7,000 in tuition, undergrad, and grad. And I collectively hear a cry of the kids of single parents who are not remarkable. I was not remarkable, not getting the same opportunities. This country needs to fall back in love with its remarkables.

The objective of higher education in our society isn't to take freakishly remarkable kids and turn them from millionaires into billionaires. It's to take unremarkable kids and give them remarkable opportunities so they can go on podcasts and be profane and make nice livings. We have turned the upward lubricant, the greatest upward lubricant in history,

US higher education into a caste system. And it needs to stop. We have lost the script. Do you realize I'm teaching, I'm teaching 280 kids beginning in three weeks, all Zoom $7,000, $2.1 million. Pfizer just announced a drug that can basically cure or arrest someone's muscular atrophy. They are charging $2.1 million. What is more corrupt? What is more corrupt? Praying on someone at their most vulnerable moment and asking them to find $2.1 million or indebting young people $7,000 each, 280 of them, such that they can try and better themselves? And the answer is yes. We in higher education have totally lost the script. Every decision we make, every decision we make is with one goal. Hold on, I'm on a rant. It's

with one goal, and that is to reduce our accountability and to increase our compensation. We aren't the caste system. We're the upward lubricants. We have lost the script. We need to embrace small and big tech. We need to go back to UCLA when there was a 60% admittance rate and it costs $1,000 a year, not 13% admittance rate. So they have the latitude to let in unremarkables. We need to fall back and look at the unremarkables. Unremarkables. That's the name of your next book, I think. Oh, my goodness. I need soup and a cuddle. I need soup and a cuddle.

Listen to me, king of the unremarkables, which you apparently have become, you've dubbed yourself that. How do you pay for it? I mean, it's just because, how do you actually get to that thing? Is it government funding or what is it? Because this is something Bernie Sanders has talked about. The Democrats have talked about it.

Elizabeth Warren, free college. Like, is it that or is it something else? Or is it just these certificates? There shouldn't be any colleges. There should just be online education solutions, which are very not great. Like, you do have to have the knowledge. You have to have some teaching going on, correct? So first off, I think free college is stupid. That's just a transfer of wealth from another one from the poor to the rich because the majority of people in school are upper middle income and higher income. So if you just start making college free, all you're doing is giving rich people money. The opportunity here, and I'm working with the regents at the University

of California, is to embrace small and big tech. And I'm not talking about decreasing costs. These universities need to be under the same fiscal constraints as middle class families and every other industry that's under attack right now. But the opportunity, the grand bargain here is a mix of all of it. And that is to go to alumni and go to Governor Newsom and say, give us another 10, 20 percent, increase our budget 20 percent, and we're going to dramatically decrease the cost per student of delivery. We're going to take 50% of our classes online because it's not an either or, it can be an and, it can be a hybrid model. And we're going to double the size of our campus. If you take 50% of the classes online and the dirty secret is 50% of the classes could be online and it would still be fine. The social stuff, the socialization scales really well. And then overnight, start taking, again, acceptance rates way up and start taking costs way down. We can absolutely do this. We just need to go back a gut in the cost explosion of administration. We need to start taxing those endowments at universities that are posing as educators. All they are is hedge funds, offering classes to the kids of their limited partners, i.e. the Ivy League.

For God's sakes, do you realize that Harvard continues its endowment growth? In about 20 years, it'll be at a trillion dollars with 1,600 new students every fall. What the fuck is Harvard doing? What the fuck is Harvard doing? Elizabeth Warren gets mad at Pete Buttigieg for having a fundraiser in a wine cave. She teaches in a wine cave. Harvard teaches. She teaches in a giant wine cave. This notion that education is there to be a luxury brand that we purposely constrain supply, what on earth are we doing? Do you realize Stanford, Stanford, Stanford just canceled sports. Stanford just canceled sports. And they said, well, why don't you use your endowment instead? Because we've made commitments from our endowments to private equity funds. And we had to have to reserve for capital calls. Like, okay, so you

are officially a hedge fund now and no longer a university. Anyway, there's massive disruption. Bring it on. We have stuff on our chin. Bring it on. Does that win you a lot of friends at NYU? I like the pitchforks. Scott, who is pitchforking against where he works. Even as I write a giant- I'm a summer pass for everyone.

What's my voice tone right now? I think I pay for part of your salary now at NYU. And I don't want to pay for your salary anymore. I want to take away Scott's salary. That is what I want to do. Thank you. There you go. Scott, we're going to take a quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails for this week.

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immense. I watched, you know, it was really interesting. I watched Black Panther again. And boy, is that a much more late... Ryan Coogler is such a talented director. And it was... I don't know why his death struck me. I loved that movie. I think I've saw it a dozen times. He was regal

and elegant and just the sentiment. And actually, it's a lot more complex because that movie is not... The guy who played the villain in the movie, Michael B. Jordan, was amazing also. He plays opposite Chadwick Boseman. And he was talking about sort of keeping to yourself that Wakanda kept to itself and wasn't offering solutions to the world. So he's not quite the villain. And so I hadn't missed it, but I really saw it in a different way. I just was very, it's a fail, I guess.

But what a win for such a wonderful actor to have had such an impact on so many young kids, especially. All right, your turn. Yeah, that's a hard one to top. You know what it reminded me of? I remember when the AIDS crisis was in kind of full, was full tilt in the 90s in San Francisco. And I heard about, I can't remember, I heard about a guy passing away in his 30s. And I immediately assumed, oh, it must have been an AIDS-related death.

And it wasn't. He died from, I think, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. And you realize, like, tragedy continues to march on, random tragedy like that. And when I heard about him, I immediately thought, thought oh i wonder if it's covid related it took me back to you you immediately you go to the the health scare and the reality is this guy you know i think it was colorectal cancer and it got me thinking i mean literally i do think his death will serve some good i know i personally scheduled scheduled on Friday that I can go into one of these full, I'm getting, bottom line is I'm getting another colonoscopy. I haven't done one five years. And it just inspires you to think more about your health and you can't take it for

granted. And this is the guy that literally had everything. Yeah. And he had cancer when he was in these roles, which is amazing. I've been starting to watch all his, I've watched much, many of his, I saw Jackie, I saw Thurgood. He played a lot of biop roles, which is amazing. I've been starting to watch all his. I've watched many of his. I saw Jackie. I saw Thurgood. He played a lot of biopics, which was interesting. I'm going to see. He did a James Brown biopic, and then he's in another one with Spike Lee.

I'm going to watch them all. I just love the look. There was something about his acting style. He was from Howard University, and the reason he got to go to England to study acting was because denzel washington paid for a whole bunch of howard graduates to go there and pay for it which was amazing uh i think felicia rashad had something to do with it um and it was really as she did in

fact when she was teaching there and i just this this this idea of a very wealthy actor paying for this guy to become a world famous actor was kind of lovely in a lot of ways. Yeah, very sad, very sad. So you're getting a colonoscopy. Good. I'm glad. I'm glad. My win again is I'm just so excited about Google certification. I hope big tech comes piling into this and that we come up with micro-certification and that we come up with different means of, again, breaking out of this dictum of you have to have a college degree, that there's a creating alternative on-ramps to the better life that has mostly been sequestered to people who are lucky enough to go to school. So I just think Google certificates, I'm very,

very excited about that. That's my win and my fail. And then you do a fail. My fail is I think the Democratic Party is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if it doesn't take more of a hard line on violence and property damage during this looting. I think they've created an opening the size of,

I don't know, the Amazon for Trump to run through if they don't, I think that whether they are or for Trump to run through if they don't. I think that whether they are or they aren't, because if you look at Biden, Biden has actually said this is not good. I think they're coming across and being depositioned as apologists for this type of behavior. Yeah. That's my feel. Yeah. Even if they say Biden has not said, he doesn't talk about defunding.

Biden said this is wrong. Yeah. So what does he do? What does he say? More? I'm going to send in more police? There's such an opportunity. Yeah. So what does he do? What does he say? More? I'm going to put your ass in jail. And she has an opportunity here to stand up and totally, I was the premier law enforcement official in the fifth largest economy in the

world. I will do this right. And she'll get some criticism for the far left for not understanding why they're upset. I get it. That is how they get the office. That is how they win presidency. Kamala goes gangster and says, I will not tolerate this shit. I will not tolerate it. Yeah, she got a lot of flack for being that way. It's really, it's a difficult needle to thread

because I think a lot of these right-wing militia groups are going in and creating violence in order to create more protests, to create more violence. If you try to destroy things, you end up winning because everyone else is cleaning up around you or trying to stop your destruction.

What I think will be interesting, if Trump does win, I don't think his administration is going to have a moment's peace. Not a moment's peace. There will be protests for years and the violence will escalate dramatically, I think. I think pinning this violence to him. I think pinning this violence to him.

I think pinning the violence to him is what you have to do. I want you to say more. When you wreak violence or when you promote violence, you win. Say more. Or destruction. I think it's easy to destroy. It's easy to break things. That's what he's doing.

He's not building. He's breaking. And so he's been running as a breaker of things, but not a builder of things. And eventually you have to build. So if he gets the power, you have to pin everything on him then. It's his, the reason the cities are having a problem is because of him. But he can't keep saying democratic cities. He can't keep saying this.

You've got to pin it on him and say, he's the reason we're having these riots. Like that's where I think they need to go. It's like the reason these riots are happening is because his right-wing militias that he is pushing are destroying us. You should be scared of the right-wing militias. They've got guns and they're running around the country as vigilantes. Like, I think that's where, and destruction is a lot easier than creation. It just is. It just is. And I think if he does win, than creation. It just is. It just is. And I think if he does win, he will not have a moment's peace and there will be no excuse for the Republicans as the country fractures. I just, I don't see, I don't see how they're going to get out of the amount of, at some point, they have to build something and it can't be a police state in this country. It could be,

but it's not going to be. And so that's really where I think the Democrats, it's that this, we hang these problems on him, all of them. We dislike each other because of him. He is the problem. And I think that's really where they have to go, more than anything. And that's hard because it's not in our nature, in Democrats' nature to do that. But you have to, you sort of have to, he's the reason there are riots. These are Trump riots. These are Trump, these are Trump, this is a Trump mess that Trump created because all he does is create, he wreaks why we have a plague. That's why we have this. And I think you're right. People are tired of the, of COVID and they've decided not to have it anymore. Right? Like that's kind of the, the, the, even though it's, it's raging. Well, but let's think about this. There's been some, and this is another fail, I would say. Okay. So you have red state governors prematurely

under political pressure, in my opinion, a lack of empathy, because a lot of red states didn't know anyone that had COVID early on. They just knew someone who had to close their business, reopened too early. At the same time, I think the bluest of blue university chancellors have reopened too soon. And I think it all comes down to a gross idolatry of dollar or opting for economics over health and the commonwealth and making long-term decisions. We've become short-term thinkers on the left, on the right. Another left and right thing that is really upsetting around a lack of civility, these far right gun-toting people who go into a Walmart where there's open carry in the state, brandishing an M15 or an AR-15 around their neck. That is not civil. That does nothing

but create a society that is less comfortable, that is more tense. And quite frankly, on the far left, going to a private residence and on the sidewalk building a working guillotine, that is awful. It is still not the same as showing up with guns and shooting at people. I'm sorry. It's stupid. It's stupid. No, no, no. Hold on. Hold on. I didn't say shooting. Don't put words in my mouth. I'm not talking about killing. When you show up in a public place, exercising your right to bear arms and brandish a semi-automatic rifle in public, you are not helping. That is not comedy of man. That is saying, I don't care. I'm tearing at the fabric of our society because I can under some silly weirdness around liberty and freedom.

I also think, did you see film of that guillotine they built? It was a working guillotine. It was stupid. That doesn't help. It was stupid. That doesn't help. I agree with you. I think it was stupid. I think a lot of the whole scenes of them yelling, I do think Rand Paul walked right into it in order to create a problem.

This is how they think. I'm telling you. They want to create a problem so that they can have video so they can say, look at these intolerant people. It's just, it's not. Oh, the Rand Paul video when he was leaving a conference? When he was leaving the convention? He wandered into it. He knew what he was doing.

He knew what he was doing. Oh, you think it was cooked? Utterly, completely. He knew exactly where to walk. Come on. It was very effective. Whatever, it's just bullshit. It's just, it's flat out bullshit.

But the fact of the matter is they want to create chaos. Making chaos works and it scares people. And so when people get scared, they tend to vote fear versus hope. And so at some point, they cannot keep scaring us. And it doesn't get scary. They're the ones that become scary. And that's what I'm saying without a moment's peace. Well, bring in Law & Order Kamala.

All right, Law & Order Kamala. Bring in Lamala. What is she going to carry a gun? Like carrying a, like a rifle. No, I'm an attorney general and I'm going to pull the laws of the land. All right.

Scott, this is, this is taking a dark turn. Your, your return. Nonetheless, I need a scuttle. I can see that.

I can see. I think cuddling is more. Cuddle for the day. Anyway, it's good to have you home. I have to go and talk to somebody who's trying to save the world for one of my New York times podcasts. Who's that? Jane Goodall. Anyway, it's good to have you home. I have to go and talk to someone who's trying to save the world for one of my New York Times podcasts. Who's that? Jane Goodall.

Anyway. The primologist? Wait, is that what? Yes. Yes. Yeah. Primatologist. Primatologist.

Yeah. She's got a great brand. Yeah. She's got a brand. I think she's done a lot of great things. Who doesn't like her? Seriously, who does not like her? That's what I'm going to talk to her about.

Yeah. A hundred percent. Who doesn't like her? Seriously, who does not like her? That's what I'm going to talk to her about. Yeah, 100%. Anyway, we did something with our guest hosts in your absence is to ask them to prompt listeners with a question topic. Do you have a topic you'd like listener questions on? Is it education? I feel like you went off the deep end on this education thing. What is the topic you would like people to call in about? I want to hear stories about what it's like. We always talk about the kids. I think there is tremendous, spring is supposed to be in households. It's supposed to be, and even in the summer, nervousness, but joyous when you find out where you're going to school and you go to school. And I think it's turned into a season of despair and financial instability. I've heard from parents,

I got a lot of emails that say, my daughter did everything right. Do you realize Harvard's going to turn away something like 2,800 kids who got a perfect math score in the SAT? I mean, it's just gotten so ridiculous, the scarcity and the luxury model. I'd love to hear from parents who have to sit down and I've heard from them with their kids and say, you've done everything right and I can't afford to send you to school. I think there is so much pain out there. I think there's so much shame. Can you imagine you're a middle-class family, you've done everything you're supposed to do, your kid is amazing or good, and you have to sit down with your kid and say, I'm sorry, we can't afford to send you to school. So I would like to hear how has the education system, what does it mean for people, for parents and their kids, their high school kids in the

household? I think it's become a tremendous, you know what happiness, happiness, not only as a function of what you have, it's, it's absence from certain things and the absence in Canada doesn't have this despair and shame that if your kid's good, you can't afford to send them to school. That doesn't happen in Germany either. It happens in the U S there's tremendous. I think I don't call it deaths of despair, but conversations of despair because people right you want some despairing listener questions i want to i want to hear parents stories around their kids going to college parents stories parents please uh call in and give us a question about that scott would like to hear about your despair anyway scott um welcome back thank you thank you penis and despair thank you so much i can't believe i'm so excited

for the fall about this anyway uh please read us out i've gone foxy i can see that it's not foxy foxy in a in a smelly way but go ahead please read us out today's episode was produced by rebecca sananas our sound engineers fernando finite and our executive producers erica anderson i spoke to er Erica over the weekend. If you like what you heard, please download or subscribe wherever you listen to our podcast. What a wonderful time in our history.

No, that's not true. Give me something positive, Cara. What's going on here? What's positive? Only 68 days? 69 days? Take my baby. Oh, your baby. Your baby. Vote for the little swisher. Vote for Joe and Kamala. Kamala. Kamala. That's right. You know what the most exciting opportunity is in the next 72 days or whenever? If he takes 40 states, we are going to ignite a movement across the world that says

no to nationalism, that says no to a lack of empathy. We have the opportunity here to start spinning to say, to have the immunities kick in and say to the rest of the world, we are still that beacon on the hill. We have an opportunity here to ignite an incredible immune response and say, the world is better when we cooperate. The world is better when we show comity. The world is better when we fund our institutions. The world is better when we turn back viruses. The world is better when we redistribute income to our most vulnerable and state of the world. That's right. We're the wealthiest nation in the world, bitches, which means that our poorest do pretty well here. This is a huge opportunity.

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