Planet Money - Tariffs, grocery prices and other listener questions

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Donald Trump is just about to begin his second presidency. And it may be safe to say that every single person in America has at least one question about what's to come in the next four years.So, we thought we'd try to answer your questions — as best we can — about the economics of a second Trump term. Is now the time to shop for new tech? Can Trump actually bring down grocery and oil prices? And, does the president have the power to get rid of NPR?This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Amanda Aronczyk. It was produced by Emma Peaslee and edited by Meg Cramer. It was engineered by Neil Tevault and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Nat sound Nat sound Nat sound Nat sound Nat sound Nat sound Nat sound podcast from NPR. This is Planet Money from NPR. Right after Donald Trump was reelected, we turned to you, our listeners, and asked, what

do you want to know? What do you want us to cover? Do you have questions about tariffs or immigration or presidential control of the Federal Reserve or tax cuts or, I don't know, any number of things. And we got a really like large number of questions. But what we realized as we started to sift through this giant metaphoric pile was that our inbox was filled with, yes, with letters, but also with uncertainty and excitement and shock. This was not an ordinary bunch of questions. Like take this one from an academic historian. So my name is Aaron Fountain and I live in Maryland.

Our producer Emma Peasley called Aaron up. Do you want to tell me about your question and why you decided to write into us? So since the 2024 presidential election, many commentators in media have talked about how many voters voted for Trump because of economic anxiety and inequality, but I'm curious, do people think that he can actually, you know, continue to address inequality and will it actually get better or will it get worse? I will say with your question we were like, we don't know.

Your question is a hard question. Were you expecting? What kind of answer did you think? It's hard because like I said I am a historian by training. It really takes years and sometimes decades to assess something. Decades. Even Aaron who wrote in with a question, acknowledges we just can't know yet.

We have no crystal ball. There's no way to know exactly what will happen. And yeah, a lot of your questions, it's just impossible to answer now. But what we can do is look at how much power the president really has to shape the economy. Where does that power come from and can Trump use it to do the things he has promised to do? Hello and welcome to Planet Money.

I'm Amanda Oronchik. Today on the show, your questions about the next four years with answers. Questions about tariffs, oil, grocery prices, and the future of NPR. That's all coming up. This message comes from Wise, the app for doing things in other currencies. Sending or spending money abroad, hidden fees may be taking a cut. With Wwise, you can convert between up to 40 currencies at the mid-market exchange rate. Visit wise.com. TNCs apply.

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Dignity Memorial. In life, you plan for many important things, like weddings, retirement, and your children's education. A celebration of life is really no different. Planning and paying for your celebration of life in advance protects your loved ones and gives you the peace of mind you deserve. It's truly one of the best gifts you can give your family. Dignity Memorial will help you take care of every detail with professionalism and compassion. For additional information, visit DignityMemorial.com. Okay, so today we are doing questions from you, our listeners, all about President-elect Donald

Trump and the next four years. To answer your questions, I will be bringing in different people from the Planet Money team. First up, Jeff Guo. Hello, Jeff. Hey, Amanda. So my listener question has to do with one of President Trump's big campaign promises. It's about oil. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates, and lower the cost of energy. We will drill, baby, drill. Ah, drill, baby, drill. That one's a classic. It really is. So listener Michael Mesa basically wanted to know,

can the president make a dent in energy prices and also in inflation by encouraging oil production? Yeah, this seems like a big important international question because the US is the largest producer of oil in the world. Exactly. So I called up Samantha Gross. And she actually used to work in the oil industry.

She was an engineer. She helped oil refineries manage their leftover gunk. I used to say that if it came out the back end of the refinery, it was my fault. Or my job, I should say. Eww, yuck. Now, these days, Samantha is an expert in energy policy at the Brookings Institution. And she says when it comes to increasing the supply of oil, the president basically has

two main moves. Number one, he can open up more federal land for drilling, you know, hand out more drilling permits, that sort of stuff. Yes, right. There have been, I remember, it's all coming back to me, a lot of political fights over this, right? Whether the president was going to allow for drilling in the Arctic or drilling in the Gulf Coast.

Yeah, and those fights matter when it comes to protecting those places from pollution and potential oil spills. But in terms of just raw, crude production, Samantha says it's not that significant. Only about a quarter of U.S US oil comes from federal land or waters. So it gets a lot of attention because it's a lever that the president has. But it's not where most of oil production comes from. Most of the oil that the US produces has always come from private land or land owned by individual states like Texas. The president doesn't control that.

Okay, but if President Trump just threw open the doors and was like, yeah, come on in oil companies, you can drill on federal land, no problem. Like I have to assume that that would be enough oil production that it would bring down the price of oil, at least some? Yes and no. Samantha says in the longterm, maybe. But we're talking like the really long term.

Because oil and gas companies, they make their drilling plans years and years in advance. They'll have the land that's producing now. They'll have the next land they plan to drill. They'll have some land that is prospective, that they're still figuring things out. So it can be years between leasing land and drilling on it. And the other thing is that even if President Trump wants companies to drill more on federal land, it's not clear that the companies themselves would even really want to, because the rest of the world, it's already producing a lot of oil right now.

This is a time of pretty ample supply in oil markets. This is good for prices if you want to see lower prices as a consumer. But if you are an oil company, those lower prices, they're probably discouraging you from investing more in oil projects. Right, companies are not saying drill, baby drill because they won't

necessarily get a good price for their oil. Exactly. Samantha says that's the reason OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, they've been holding back their oil production because they don't like the price right now. Oh, interesting. So it sounds like no matter how much federal land the president just opens up, he can't make companies go drill on that land. No, it's up to the market. Up to the market, right. OK, so Jeff, you also mentioned that there is a second big thing that the president can do to affect the price of oil.

Oh, yeah, this is actually pretty cool. The US has this thing called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It's literally a bunch of caves where we stockpile a ginormous amount of oil for emergencies. I love all the caves that we just store things in. So great. You know, think of it as like a gigantic underground tank. They're like sort of mined out caverns made of salt. So you can put the oil in there, you know, as liquid in these big old caverns and pump the oil into these caves. They sure do. Yes

They're like gigantic salt caves Wow. Where are these in the Gulf Coast like Louisiana, Texas? And and get this these salt caves they can hold enough oil to supply the entire world for like a week I Guess that is a lot that is a lot of oil a week. I guess that is a lot. That is a lot of oil. That's a lot of oil. It is the largest oil stockpile in the world. OK. And so remember when Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices spiked. One thing that President Biden did was to open up the reserves and start selling some of what's in there. Ah, yes. Unleash the oil. And most economists think that made a difference, at least enough to stabilize oil prices in the short term. Now, Biden didn't do it alone, of course. Other countries, they also opened

up their own reserves. But it sounds like you couldn't actually bring down oil prices this way in the long term if it's only lasting for a week. No, no. The caves are ginormous, but they're not that ginormous. Okay. So back to our listener, Michael's question, can the president bring down the price of oil so that, you know, help fight inflation? And it sounds like the answer is not really. The oil market is simply too big for the limited tools that the president has access to. Right. And by the way, energy prices, they aren't even that big of a part of inflation.

Like even if you look back at the 1970s energy crisis, like if you actually decompose the different factors, economists say- Jeff, Jeff, we got to move on, we got to move on. Although honestly, that does sound very interesting. Okay, we'll save that for another time, Amanda. Thank you so much. Thanks, Amanda. Okay, Amanda, what a pleasure.

Wait just a second. No, no, I introduce you. You're coming to my show, dude. Oh, dang it. Okay. So I want to let you know we have another question from a listener. This one is from Jen Penzes. So here's a question. Why are groceries still so expensive? Why has inflation decreased but food is still 25% more?

Okay. So we looked this up and between 2019 and 2020, we had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food.

We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. We had a huge increase in food. is still so expensive. Why has inflation decreased by food is still 25% more? Okay, so we looked this up and between 2019 and 2023, grocery prices did increase by 25%, as Jen said, and broadly, overall inflation was less.

It increased by nearly 18%. Now, of course, inflation was a huge issue in this past election and Trump has promised to bring down the cost of groceries. Right. So, Greg Wrozelski, our newsletter writer, a little bit about Jen. Jen watches grocery prices closely. She even made a spreadsheet where she tracked how much she was spending on things like eggs

and ground turkey and milk, I think. So- Love spreadsheets. Love a spreadsheet. So, what do you think is the answer to her question? Why are groceries still so expensive, even though inflation overall has slowed? So first of all, I got to say, Jen, I feel you, grocery prices do seem really high. But, you know, to answer this question, the first thing I want to do is just sort of like sort out this difference between the price level and inflation. So to clarify the price level is like, you know, the general or average

level of prices of goods and services in the economy. Inflation is different though. It's an increase in the price level. It's the change, not the level. So how about this? So think of an inflatable pool, an inflatable swimming pool, like one of those kiddie pools? Maybe a big one so I could get in and swim around. OK. The height of the water is kind of like the price level. And now imagine there's a hose going into this pool. OK, we're filling up the inflatable pool here.

Yeah, you turn it on, you're filling it up. So the water going into the pool, that's inflation, right? So when the pool is filling quickly pool, that's inflation, right? So when the pool is filling quickly, the rate of inflation is high. But when you close the spigot a little bit, the water then slows to a trickle. And now the pool is filling up less quickly. That's the rate of inflation slowing down. Okay. So that's, that's pretty much the situation that we are in now, right? The inflation hose is slower than it was, but that does not mean that the water level or the price level is lower.

Price of groceries is still really high. Yeah. So as you said earlier, Amanda, grocery prices have actually outpaced overall inflation over the last five or so years. And mind you, groceries are something we buy all the time. So we've all really noticed these high prices. Like every time you go to the grocery store, you're like, dang it, these eggs are, I don't know,

like a million dollars. Oh, like a billion dollars for eggs. What am I gonna have to get a mortgage on this freaking omelet? However, since late 2023, the rate of inflation for groceries has significantly slowed down. In fact, between August 2023 and November 2024, it was significantly lower than the overall rate of inflation. Now, I don't know what Jen is exactly buying at the grocery store. It sounds

like she's a big fan of poultry products. Eggs in particular have spiked quite a bit in recent months because of bird flu. There goes my omelets. I don't know about you, Amanda. But yeah, this increase in the price of eggs, it actually drove an increase in the overall grocery inflation rate more recently. Okay, so you've explained what's going on now, but I think what Jen really wants to know is will grocery prices ever go down again? Will things get cheaper at the supermarket? Yeah, so I hate to be the bear of bad news here

Grocery prices tend not to go down There was one big exception though in 2016 American grocery prices fell a little bit for the first time in like nearly 50 years No kidding But um, I think you know the fact that this was like the first time it happened in nearly 50 years. No kidding. But I think, you know, the fact that this was like the first time it happened in nearly 50 years, and it wasn't that big of, you know, a fall in prices, it suggests that like, we're probably not going to see a big drop of grocery prices anytime soon. These things tend to go up over time, not go down. Okay, so if grocery prices are unlikely to go down,

how is Jen or anyone really supposed to keep up? Like, how are we supposed to be able to afford to buy this very expensive food? Yeah. And also, I mean, like I should say that she should hope to get a raise and, you know, like hope her household income goes up because that's generally what happens over time. You'll see this spike in the price level and people start demanding raises and we'll get used to higher sticker prices at grocery stores. Okay.

And actually over the last year or so, the wages of Americans have been going up and they've been growing faster than overall grocery prices. Okay, so Jen, you thought you were calling about groceries, but really we are suggesting you go ask for a raise. Thank you, Greg. This has been super helpful.

It's always a good call. We have more questions and answers coming up. Questions about the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on our purchases, like, for example, when we buy an iPhone. And will President-elect Donald Trump find a way to cut NPR's funding? That's all after the break. Oh, wow. I want to hear that segment. Exactly.

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Listen to the 1A podcast from NPR. So, our next question is from a listener named Jane Gray. This one is about the media. It impacts us. We get this question a lot. And I decided to bring it to Brooke Gladstone. She is the co-host of the public radio show on the media and she's just finished reporting an episode about public broadcasting funding. I read her the listener

question. What is the likelihood that Trump's administration will cut funding for NPR? Well, I think that prognostication is a mugs game, especially in the era of Trump. So let me just say that. One of Brooke's first media gigs back in the 1980s was writing for Current, which is like this industry trade magazine. So since the very beginning of her media career, Brooke has seen many attempts to cut funding to public broadcasting. Nixon tried to do it, but that was before I was covering it. Certainly during the Reagan era, and Newt Gingrich was a very big advocate of killing public broadcasting. George W. Bush also tried to do it. And the great stalwart warriors like Big Bird and Mr. Rogers have fought it back.

So first a little context. NPR and PBS get some of their funding from the government through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, or CPB, which was established by President Lyndon Johnson back in 1967 as part of his Great Society programs. A couple of years later, PBS was founded, then NPR. But almost immediately after Richard Nixon took office in 1969, Nixon tried to cut its proposed funding. He did not like being criticized, and he saw the media as his adversary. So that year, Mr. Rogers, who is still establishing

himself and his neighborhood as this educational place on television for children, he goes to testify before a Senate committee about the value of public television. I'm constantly concerned about what our children are seeing. And for 15 years, I have tried in this country and Canada to present what I feel is a meaningful expression of care. Do you narrate it? I'm the host, yes, and I do all the puppets and I write all the music and I write all

the script. Well, I'm supposed to be a pretty tough guy and this is the first time I've had goosebumps for the last two days. Well, I'm grateful not only for your gooseb, but for your interest in our kind of communication. At that time, those goosebumps did help keep the CPB's funding intact. But when President Nixon was re-elected in 1972, he again targeted the CPB and vetoed a measure that would have given it more funding. So in the next administration, in an attempt to protect CPB's funding, the Public Broadcasting Financing Act of 1975 gets passed. And this is important. In that act, there is a guarantee

that the CPB would have this kind of unique budget. It is funded two years in advance to protect it from political meddling. That means that this year's CPB budget was already set and appropriated two years ago. But there is a way to claw back that money. Recision means that they can go in and cut things that were previously appropriated. Recision. Recision as opposed to cut, meaning going back to cut something they already agreed to. Right, so a rescission means taking back money that has already been appropriated but has

not been spent yet. This is something the president can ask Congress to do to avoid spending funds on things like the CPB. Brooks says yes, having Mr. Rogers or Big Bird show up on Capitol Hill, that's fun and helpful, but really the funding for CPB has survived because a bipartisan majority of representatives in the House have supported public broadcasting. Their constituents wanted it. That is because 70% of this government money goes to the 1,500 locally owned public radio and TV stations.

These are all across the country, and they take that money from the CPB and they spend it in a bunch of different ways. Some of that money might go to pay NPR for programming. A lot goes to pay local reporters and to pay the cost of running a station. So, Brooke says that cutting CPB funding would hurt NPR, yes, but it would hurt these local stations a lot more, stations that act as a service and might be the only source of local news. It is able to bring vital information to communities that would not get it. It is that simple.

You're not going to strangle NPR if that's what they want to do. If they hate all things considered and Morning Edition, they're not going to kill it this way. The only thing they'll kill is rural stations in Alaska telling people where the ice is thin on the river that serves as a roadway in the winter. LESLIE KENDRICK The station Brooke is referring to is KYUK in Bethel, Alaska, and they're aptly named to show River Watch, which is people keeping a close eye on their river. In the winter, they want to make sure it's really frozen if they are going to drive on it. How much snow you guys have left? We don't have very much snow. How about your temperature

this morning? This morning was about six below. Wow, it's quite a bit colder than I was holding my breath this past weekend when it started raining. Oh man, I hope this isn't it. We've seen the river break up upriver several times during November. If we can make it to December without a big warm up, then it'll probably hold together. Literally Riverwatch. So to our listeners question, yes it is very likely that the Trump administration will try to cut funding to NPR. Trump has called to cut

funding for NPR in the past and he tried last time he was president. But it didn't work because really the decision over the future of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting's funding that lies with Congress. All right. Now, onto our final listener question. To answer it, I have invited on Planet Money producer Willa Rubin. Hello, Willa. Hey, Amanda. So, this question comes from listener Brian Bunton from South Carolina, and he wrote in to ask about his iPhone. He says it's three years old, he probably doesn't need to upgrade it for a few years,

but he wants to know... Will it be possible that he's called the wrong show? There's got to be like a tech show out there for him. Okay, now tell him what is his planet money-ish question. Okay, so he wants to know, should he go ahead and get a new phone before Trump takes office given that Trump is promising to increase tariffs? Oh, good question. By the way, we should say Apple is an NPR sponsor.

So let me summarize. Brian is wondering should he buy himself a new iPhone now and avoid the price potentially going up because of a future tariff, which as we know is basically an import tax. Is that right? Yes, exactly. So I called up Yale economics professor Amit Kundwal, who said that one scenario is that maybe there just won't be tariffs on iPhones because companies can request exemptions. In the last round of tariffs that the previous Trump administration launched in 2018-2019, it turned out that the iPhone was exempted from those tariffs. Oh, interesting. So, Apple avoided tariffs on their iPhones.

Yeah. So, iPhones were almost subject to tariffs, but Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, during the last trade dispute, he went to Trump and was like, listen, if you put tariffs on the iPhones that we assemble in China, those tariffs will make it harder for my American company to compete with Androids, many of which are made by Samsung, a South Korean company, which does a lot of its manufacturing in Vietnam. And ultimately, there was never a tariff on iPhones. Also, Tim Cook does seem to be maintaining his relationship with Trump. He recently visited Mar-a-Lago. Also, he donated a million dollars to Trump's inauguration fund. Yes. OK. So maybe Brian doesn't need to get a new iPhone yet because if iPhones didn't get a tariff last time, possibly they won't get one this time.

Right. Although Trump has also said that he would increase tariffs on everything coming from China. OK. And that may include products made by Apple. But I know that since the pandemic, a lot of the companies have been diversifying where they manufacture and assemble their products. Is Apple in fact making all of their iPhones in China? No, not all of them.

So for years, iPhones have been assembled in China in the city of Zhengzhou at a factory that is so big, it is sometimes called iPhone City. But yeah, like you said, since the pandemic, also because of increasing tensions with China, also labor costs, more and more companies are using a business strategy called China Plus One. And the idea is like, yes, still make stuff in China, sure,

but also branch out, make things in another country too. And so these days, yeah, Apple is making more and more of its iPhones outside of China. In the past five years, for example, they've been increasingly shifting iPhone production to Vietnam and India. Got it. Okay, India and Vietnam. But who knows, maybe Trump will put tariffs on products coming

from Vietnam or India or from anywhere or from everywhere. So what is a listener like Brian supposed to do? Could he just like wait a little bit longer? He didn't really need that new iPhone. I mean, how different is the new iPhone really? Come on, let's be honest here. Yeah, but it is also hard to know just how long to wait for a couple of reasons. First, because tariffs don't all get imposed at once since the trade dispute with China began. There have been multiple rounds. And next, because once a tariff gets announced, there's no standard amount of time for how long it

actually takes to then go into effect. And then even when those tariffs do take effect, like who knows how long it'll take before those extra costs wind up getting passed on to us. Right. And they may not get passed on at all. Right. Although, you know, research from the last trade dispute showed that usually they did. And by the way, I asked Apple to talk about all of this, all their tariff plans. They didn't get back to me.

Okay. So what are we, what are we going to tell Brian? Should he get a new iPhone? Yes or no? So actually, when I called up Brian to talk about all this, he had a confession. I actually did get a new iPhone already. You did? I did. Can you tell me why? Was it because of the kinds of questions you wrote in about?

Pretty much. I wrote in the question, but I kind of came to the conclusion myself, probably be rather be safe than sorry. That's always been my philosophy. Oh, wow, Brian. Maybe you could have emailed us a little earlier, just teasing. We did

make Brian wait for this answer. What did Amit think of Brian's choice? Well, I asked him. Did Brian do the right thing? Yeah, so I think that given that he was planning to upgrade anyways, I think he hedged his bets and went ahead and bought it, which makes sense. Okay, great. I guess all's well that ends well. Yeah, but, you know, Brian owns other things and he was looking around his house thinking like, I don't know, other tariffs?

The dryer has an issue where it doesn't turn off. That's a problem. Yeah. So the only way to turn it off is to open the door. Oh no, Brian's gonna have to buy a new dryer. Will he or won't he? So many decisions to make, so much uncertainty. Willa, thank you so much.

Thank you so much, Amanda. Feel free to always send us your questions. We love to hear from you. Our inbox is my playground. I love going in there and seeing what you guys are asking. It's planetmoney at npr.org. This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peasley and edited by Meg Kramer. It was engineered by Neil T. Vault and fact check by Sarah Juarez.

Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. I'm Amanda Oranchik. This is NPR. Thanks for listening. musician to perform behind the famous desk. Think you've got what it takes? Submit a video of you playing an original song to the Tiny Desk Contest by February 10th. Find out more and see the official rules at npr.org slash tiny desk contest. Usher, Yo-Yo Ma, Boy Genius, Shaka Khan, Billie Eilish, Weird Al, one thing all these big stars have in common, they've all played behind NPR's Tiny Desk.

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