Planet Money - We buy a lot of Christmas trees (Update)

Episode Date: December 22, 2023

*Note: This episode originally ran in 2020*'Tis the season for Americans to head out in droves and bring home a freshly-cut Christmas tree. But decorative evergreens don't just magically show up on corner lots, waiting to find a home in your living room. There are a bunch of fascinating steps that determine exactly how many Christmas trees get sold, and how expensive they are.Today on the show, we visit the world's largest auction of Christmas trees — and then see how much green New Yorkers are willing to throw down for some greenery. It's a story where snow-dusted Yuletide dreams meet the hard reality of supply and demand. We've got market theory, a thousand dollars in cash, and a "decent sized truck"... anything could happen.This episode was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Bryant Urstadt. It was engineered by Gilly Moon. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer. Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The news can be disorienting, and it can be really hard to remember how we got here. That's why we started the ThruLine Podcast. Every week, we take you on a cinematic trip into the past to better understand the present. Listen now to the ThruLine Podcast from NPR. This is Planet Money from NPR. Happy holidays, everybody. It is that time of year again. And if you're still hoping to nab a Christmas tree, well, best of luck, I guess. Coming up, we have a Planet Money Christmas tale in which Robert Smith and Nick Fountain get to the root of what is happening

in the Christmas tree market. This episode originally aired in 2020. Stay tuned for an update at the very end. Here's the episode. Christmas tree. Christmas trees. Christmas tree, yeah. Planet money Christmas tree. The day after Thanksgiving, Nick, you and I participated in a grand American tradition, trying to make a buck off a religious holiday. You guys need a Christmas tree? We're good, thanks. Christmas trees.

Look at that beauty right there. Planet Money Christmas trees. We had a pickup truck filled with Christmas trees, a few signs on a corner in a fancy Brooklyn neighborhood, and we were ready to make some cash. How much does a six to seven foot Christmas tree go for these years? We're asking for $150.

And people are actually paying $150. No, no they are not. Not a single person. That's why we still have a truck full of trees. So are you trying to dupe people into buying too expensive Christmas trees? Is that what's going on? I don't think it's duping. It's seeing what the market will bear. Okay. And the market so far has borne nothing. He was right.

We were striking out. What was it? Were our prices too high? Was our sales pitch off? Maybe people couldn't see our fancy podcast microphones. I think we got a customer. We're curious if this is a tree sale or if it's a news program. It is both. Whoa! I know. It's kind of crazy.

Amanda and Leo Sidron and some extended family were headed to the park when they saw our sign. It was just a matter of reeling them in. Are you interested in a tree? Yes, we are interested in a tree. Excellent. We were just discussing how much to charge for them because we have a little... I overheard you say that you think they might be worth $150. Before we put a price on this tree, would you like to hear the story of the tree? Of course. Excellent. Picture, if you will, a farm in the middle of Pennsylvania. Rolling hills, there are cows, there's a beautiful little barn off in the distance. And you're thinking, oh, is this where they grow the Christmas trees?

But no, this is where they auction the Christmas trees all right ready three two crossfade with walking sounds footsteps in a field one week ago all right All right. Good morning, Mifflinburg. Woo! Beautiful, beautiful day. Sunrise, 38 degrees. Gonna be warm today, not very Christmassy. Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Robert Smith. And I'm Nick Fountain, and we are in Mifflinburg, Pennsylvania. You know, every time I've had a Christmas tree,

I somehow pictured it cut down from a snowy forest by a burly lumberjack and it magically appearing on my street corner. But really, there are a bunch of weird, fascinating steps in between that determine exactly how many Christmas trees get sold and how expensive they are. Today on the show,

we visit the world's largest auction of Christmas trees, where the yuletide dreams of boys and girls meet the hard reality of supply and demand. We have a thousand dollars in cash. We have a pickup truck. Anything can happen. We all hear things differently, and that can be tough when there's so much noise. This election year, we're a space to speak up and to listen. Listen to 1A for the latest on election 2024, only from NPR. The state of the union is not good. Landslide, the story of how a party and the nation shifted to the right. Part of the NPR Network. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

Let's just take a moment. That is a lot of trees. It's amazing. The Buffalo Valley Auction Center is a big warehouse plopped down in the middle of prime Pennsylvania farmland. The Christmas trees are stacked like firewood in this big quarter mile circle around the building. As far as the eye can see. It looks like an evergreen wall surrounding the property, like it's a medieval castle. Each of the trees is wrapped in twine and piled in mounds the size of a truck. And in front of each mound is a single tree that and piled in mounds the size of a truck.

And in front of each mound is a single tree that's unwrapped so you can smell the needles or count the rings or kick the stump, whatever people do here. Good morning. Hey, we're looking for the office for the Courtney's. There are 45,000 Christmas trees here. So many that the auction doesn't take place inside the building. Oh, we have topiary over here. So many that the auction doesn't take place inside the building. Oh, we have topiary over here.

No, the auctioneer is going to move from tree pile to tree pile on the back of a pickup truck. Check, check, check. And we hear that auctioneer before we spot him. Neil Courtney is getting ready to haul himself into the back of the auction pickup truck. There's a tiny stool for him in the back. The auction starts in 10 minutes, so we're already talking fast. How long have you done this? I've been on the tree truck for a year.

What's the deal with the little stool? The little stool is where I sit. That is a tiny little stool, and you are not a tiny little man. It'll be all right. You have a sense of balance on the back of the truck? I do. Have you ever fallen off? No, the chair screwed fast. Gotcha.

Neil says this big Christmas tree auction started as a way to make his professional life just a little bit easier 30 years ago he was a traveling auctioneer farmers would bring him out to their farm to auction off well you know anything they had to sell and eventually neil and a bunch of farmers thought why not build an auction center and cut out all that driving centralized location yeah what if everyone comes to me? And they did it. People said no one will cut trees and bring them. They cut trees and brought them.

30 years ago, Neil sold $3,000 worth of Christmas trees here. Today, he's hoping he's going to auction off $1.3 million worth of needles and branches. But to hit that huge number, everything will have to go perfectly. and branches. But to hit that huge number, everything will have to go perfectly. And Neil has this theory that this year will be the hottest auction in the last 30 years. He can just feel it. With everyone stuck at home during a pandemic, he thinks people are desperate for something cheerful. And Christmas is going to be huge. Christmas is going to be huge. You think people will get more trees, more boughs, more holly? They're going to make Christmas, Christmas. Yeah. If this is indeed a banner year for Christmas trees, the market will sense it here first.

This is definitely the largest tree-for-all in the nation. Tree-for-all. Hundreds of buyers and sellers come together in one spot. The farmers truck in conifers from across Pennsylvania and as far away as Canada and North Carolina. Little trees for apartments that were planted only a few years ago. Big 18-footers for apartment building lobbies. Those take over a decade to grow. And it's not just your classic Fraser firs.

We got Frasers, we got Douglas, we got Turkish fir, we got Canines, we got Concolors, we got got Turkish fir, we've got Canines, we've got Concolors, we've got Blue Spruce, Serbians, Nordmans, lots of different varieties. I've never heard of most of those varieties. Well, you're going to hear the Douglas and the Fraser, the two you hear, the rest are exotics, and that's our... We suddenly hear a loudspeaker calling for the start of the auction. I guess that means I gotta get to work. Check, check.

Ooh, that's hot. Neil climbs up into the bed of the pickup and onto the little stool. Go ahead, Bill. And the truck drives off along a dirt path towards tree pile number one. Good luck with the driving. I don't know where all the buyers were hiding, but as the truck moves into position, a crowd starts to assemble. Maybe a hundred guys, and they're mostly guys, in hoodies and Carhartts.

They work at garden centers, hardware stores. Some are just planning to set up in a vacant corner lot. And they're all here looking for a good deal. I position myself next to a man who looks like he spends a lot of time outside. My name is Kerry Knowles. And where do you work? What do you do? Alexandria, Virginia, in the farm market business. That's right outside of Washington, D.C.

Kerry has this brick red baseball cap. It's the only one in the crowd. Maybe it's just fashion. Maybe it's some sort of auction trick to get the best deal. That's unclear. But what is clear is that everyone will need some sort of edge today. This is going to be a day like nobody's ever seen. How many do you need? Don't need any, but if the right stuff's there at the right money, it could be a thousand, could be two thousand. Check, check. Neil, the auctioneer is ready.

Just about showtime. His mic is hot. All right, ladies and gentlemen, here we go. We're going to give you the terms and conditions for today's auction. Ladies and gentlemen, your eyes, your guide, your checkbook talks. When I say sold, it's yours. Okay? Here's your sign. Neil runs through a few more rules, and then... Ladies and gentlemen, let's get this show off the ground.

You're on, Harvey. We're going to start here? You're set. You bet. Five 12-foot con callers. Five 12-foot con callers. What are you going to give? What are you going to give? $200 to go. You bet. 5'12 foot con caller. 5'12 foot con caller. What are you going to give? What are you going to give?

$200 to go. Do, do, do, do, do. Did he just say $200 a tree? That's just the first number out of his mouth. It's meant to prime the pump, to anchor expectations. Watch, watch. He's going to quickly drop the price. $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $75, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, $55, They're not even bidding yet. Linfama has a garden center in New Jersey. The prices are a little high right now. We're going to wait.

Well, I hear if you wait, you might have to pay even more. Then we'll be going home with nothing. After each sale, the auction truck starts up, moves about seven feet down the road, stops in front of the next pile, and the auction starts all over again. Neil can auction off a pile of 50 trees in 30 seconds flat. Kerry with the red hat has been right in the middle of the bidding. I've come to check in. What's it looking like this year? It'll be a good year to be a tree farmer and have trees here to sell.

They're bringing big money for them. So that means a bad year to be in the retail business? Well, you just got to adjust your figures a little bit. There's not enough to go around for everybody, so you got to get in there and get them. Kerry is already lowering his standards. The very best trees here are graded number one. Kerry was desperate and buying number two grade trees. These are trees that are, you know, misshapen or have a big bald spot on the back. I bought a misfit. Yeah, misfit. Gotta give them a home, too. Everybody's watched Charlie Brown at Christmas. Washington, D.C., you're getting misfits this year. Good misfits. Check

back with me in a little bit. You know, there's something Kerry said that stuck with me. There are not enough trees to go around, which seems incredible with 45,000 trees here. But there's clearly something unusual going on this year beyond just the increased demand during a pandemic. If there's a supply problem, we need to go to the source, to the growers. And it wasn't hard to find them. They were the folks hanging out at the back of the pack with huge smiles on their faces as prices went up and up. These prices are amazing. Even for the misfit trees. My name's Byron Mitchell and this is my wife.

Holly Mitchell. And where's your farm? Where do you grow? Gaines, Gelton, Pennsylvania area. The Mitchells have about 250 acres of trees, which sounds like a lot. But Byron says, in fact, this year, all across the nation, we are experiencing a critical shortage of Christmas trees. Not because of COVID, but because of the way Christmas trees are grown. Remember how we said that it takes about a decade to grow a decent-sized Christmas tree? The seedlings of this year's shortage were planted 10 years ago.

They were planted during the Great Recession. Now, I didn't know about this because at the time I was covering, you know, banks going under. But during those years, the tree farming business also collapsed. Remember how no one was buying real estate and there were all those new homes that were either vacant or foreclosed upon? Well, no one was buying evergreen trees for landscaping. And the farmers who grow those trees, they'd lost this huge revenue stream. And so in desperation, they started to cut the landscaping trees to sell as Christmas trees. That Christmas during the recession, trees flooded the market. Byron remembers the prices plunging.

Trees that might usually sell for $24. Here at the auction, $7 a piece. We were losing money. It was just cash flow to keep the business running. The price for trees was so low that during the worst year, 2013, farmers started to give up entirely. They didn't even bother cutting the trees down and shipping them to market. We had fields of trees, literally thousands and thousands. We probably lost somewhere in the realm of 75,000 to 100,000 trees that we just let grow

because we couldn't afford to maintain them any longer. People stopped planting new trees. A lot of tree farms went out of business. Byron estimates half of his fellow tree farmers gave up. The Mitchells only survived because a gas company came in to lease some of their land for fracking. And that's why there are so few farmers here. So few trees up for auction this year. All these years later, these trees that we see today

are the miraculous survivors of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. And to the survivors, go the riches. It gives us hope for the future, the prices that we're seeing today, that we're going to be able to continue. And in the springtime, we'll be able to plant seedlings. So that way, in 10 years, we'll have more trees to keep going. A nationwide shortage of trees. You know, when I heard that, I got that feeling. That feeling you get when you're shopping online and you see a little pop-up that says,

only three items left at this price. And you start clicking because you lose all your rational thought because you just have to buy it now. You thinking what I'm thinking? We should buy a metric buttload of trees. I mean, if we can get it at a good enough price, we could totally turn a profit in New York. Everything is expensive in New York. We can't not buy them, really. It's weirdly easy to turn from being reporters to auction participants. We walk over to the auctioneer's son, Ben. We fill in a form. He doesn't ask if we know what we're doing or if we have enough money or even if we have a truck.

Although we did come ready, just in case. I got a thousand dollars cash in my pocket and a small pickup truck. It is the world's smallest pickup truck. No! It has a six-foot bed and a lumber rack. Ben hands us an official piece of paper with our number 1099 written on it in big sharpie. That is our bidder number. 1099 like the tax form. We plunge into the crowd gathered behind the auction truck. Starting to feel a little desperate. We got a show to fill. By this point, we kind of understand how the auction works. You do not bid on the first price you hear.

That's just the teaser number. You do have to be able to do math quickly in your head. The number you hear from the auctioneer is the price per tree. But if you bid and win, you get the whole pile of trees. You all of a sudden own 57 Fraser firs. I spot a pile I like. You all of a sudden own 57 Frasier furs. I spot a pile I like.

40 cute little trees that would fit in my truck and inside tiny New York apartments. And while we're trying to figure out what they're worth, Neil starts auctioning them off. Wait until the price drops. 20 bucks for this thing on that line. Keep going down. 22 and a half. 22 and a half. 22 and a half.

Put up the auction number. I got 26. I got 26. You got 26. Oh, 26, 27. Somebody's bidding against you. I can't do it. I can't go more.

No, no. Wait, 27? No, you bid 26. We missed it by a dollar. We go over to talk to the pro who beat us, Steve Kropp of Virginia. Did you just buy these? Yeah. You just beat me by a dollar.

Daggone it. I thought I could get a steal, but then you just swooped in there. No, I started it. I started it. I was at 20. You went up to 26. I'm like, what are you doing? We've got to work together. Seriously, let's collude.

Yeah, we've got to work together. Now, we should be jumping right back in, but Robert is just kind of wandering off muttering, I don't know, about flaws in auction theory. So I know it's capitalism, and I know that's the way the market works, right? This is price discovery. But we don't know anything.

It's true. We are complete idiots. We're complete idiots. So are those really worth $27? I mean, that guy's willing to pay it, but he had to have something. We bid it up. If we hadn't been here, would they have gone for $20, $21? What is the price of that tree?

The price is what he paid for it, man. You know, I did remember there is a name for this in economics. It's called the winner's curse. By definition, in order to win an auction, you have to bid more than everyone else thinks the object is worth. Throw in a couple of city boys like us, and this whole efficient markets thing goes out the window. Also, it's starting to seem like there are other inefficiencies here. We spot the red hat of Kerry Knowles, the guy who sells just outside of Washington, D.C., and ask him how he's doing.

Fantastic. I swear, I just kicked, yeah, it's been good. Wait a minute, you are smiling. I did not expect that early this morning. You were grim-faced. That's what makes this business so fascinating, is that it turns, just spins right out from you. Well, explain to me what happened. What'd you get? Why are you so happy? They must all been sleeping or something. I don't know. Somebody came over there with a box of donuts and half the buyers went over there to get them a free donut and I just scooped them up. What did you get? How many? Just a couple piles. Piles of trees, not piles of donuts. Kerry, though, has inspired me to think creatively, to just like grab the moment. And I'm thinking, let's go for misfit trees.

The number two trees. This is where we brand the Zoom tree. I think like, I don't think anyone's tried this yet. Hear me out here. For a lot of people, their social life now and their work life is on Zoom, right? Sure. And so you want to have a nice background that says like, oh, you know, I'm enjoying the holidays

and it doesn't matter if it's a good tree. It just has to look good on Zoom. Right, right, right. Just like nobody's wearing pants anymore. We get a skanky, we get a flawed number two tree and then we just market Zoom trees. We add 20 bucks to it. I'm loving it.

Let's do it. Then we spot them. The smallest pile of number two tree and then we just market zoom trees we add 20 bucks to it i'm loving it let's do it then we spot him the smallest pile of number two trees around 1967 feet these are hefty trees you can sell 19 trees in new york so we're making our stand here can you guys who know something about trees tell us how much these are going to go for nobody knows and then it's too late neil and his auction truck pulls up which one right? I make eye contact with Neil. But don't bid yet. Okay, we're at $50. Are you in? Are you in, Nick? Nick finally bids, but he's quickly outmatched.

$52.50. Okay, he's doing $52. Nick bids $55 a tree, and then I cannot believe I'm seeing this. $57.50. He bids against himself. And you only get one free pass a day. $55, $7.50. You just went past go, you bought it.

Hell yeah. Yeah, we got it. That's right. 50-yard strikes. What's the number, guys? $10.99. $10.99. Largest food media group in the country.

You bought those things? Oh, no. Immediately, people start giving us a hard time about the price we paid. But you know what? We don't care. We got trees. We start throwing them in the bed of my pickup. All we have to do now is bring them back to Brooklyn and sell these 19 trees for a profit.

When our show continues after... Wait, what? One second. I got a... Nick. The truck is full. Well, you've only put in half the trees. Yeah. We have seven trees.

We can't fit into Nick's tiny truck. It's a decent-sized truck. But Nick, ever the hustler, approaches a bunch of guys next to us... Excuse me, sir. No, you're not going to try it. ...and goes into sales mode. I bought them for $55. I mean... Would you bought them for $55.

Would you take them for $55? How about $50? It's worth it to me. Wait, did we just lose money already? We just lost 7 times 5. $35. Okay, Nick. Now are we ready? You just got to tie them down and head for the big city after the break.

Trials in multiple states, state and federal charges, plea deals, witness testimony, gag orders. The trials of former President Trump are really hard to keep straight. And that's why we created Trump's Trials, a weekly podcast where we break down the biggest news from each of his legal cases and what it all means for democracy in about 15 minutes. I'm Scott Detrow. Listen to Trump's Trials from NPR. Culture doesn't happen by accident. Each week on It's Been a Minute, I take the things everyone's talking about and, in conversation with my favorite creators, tastemakers, and experts, give you new ways to think about them beyond the obvious takes.

Listen now to the It's Been a Minute podcast from NPR. Former President Trump is in serious legal trouble. And at the same time, he wants his old job back. It's a really big story. But with different trials in multiple states, plea deals, testimony, gag orders, It's also really hard to follow. So we created Trump's Trials, a new NPR podcast where we break down the big news from each case and talk about what it means for democracy in weekly episodes. I'm Scott Detrow. Check out Trump's Trials from NPR. Hey, it's Erika Barris. Before we get back to the show, a bit of year-end reflection. In 2023, Planet Money followed the wild arc of inflation, of interest rates.

We brought you a series about AI and an episode produced by AI. And we served up another extremely infotaining season of Planet Money Summer School. Of course, we have big plans for lots more cool stuff like that in 2024. But that stuff will not be possible without your help. This is where we want to say a big thank you to our Planet Money Plus supporters and anyone listening who already donates to public media. And to anyone out there who isn't a supporter yet, right now is the time to get behind the NPR network, especially with the big election year coming up. So please, join NPR Plus at plus.npr.org or make a tax-deductible donation now at donate.npr.org slash money. And thanks.

Well, now that you've heard the story. And so that brings us back to the day after Thanksgiving. A street corner in Park Slope, Brooklyn, the Sidron family listening to our every word, captivated by the story of why the Great Recession means they should pay $150 for a tree that we bought for $55. But the nice thing is, if someone were to see your tree, maybe in the background of a Zoom call or perhaps a visit, you could just say to them, hey, do you have 20 minutes?

Because you could listen to an entire episode about this exact tree. I mean, that's just... Well, that does make it more valuable. Yeah, definitely. It could make it more valuable because obviously the story has currency. I mean, that's what you're selling us is a story. And a Christmas tree. Don't forget, we're also selling you a Christmas tree.

Biggest one off the top. We pull the top tree off the pile, unwrap it, and honestly, it is not that bad. It's time to haggle. And immediately we realized that because we told the Sidren family the story of the tree, we have lost a lot of our negotiating power. We don't need to hear the show to know that these are second-rate trees. What?

What? Ouch. But frankly What? Ouch. But, frankly, there's no other trees out right now. There's a lot of demand in Brooklyn for trees this year. Not yet. What did they say they paid? They told us. They told us. If we roll back

the tape, they're going to tell us what they paid. There's all sorts of extra costs. The gas, I got a rental car, two hotel rooms. I bought loppers and a saw. I paid to park the truck in a garage because we didn't want the tree stolen. Brooklyn, meals, taxes, New Jersey tolls. But Leo Sidron is not buying it.

He lobs a lowball offer. The standard $10 per foot, that's the going rate around here. I'm going to say $70 for this tree. Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no. Well, what do you think? I mean, I think, I guess I would say $100. I will take $100 for this tree. Sold.

Sold. Wait, he's shaking his head. He's shaking his head. He was trying to do a negotiation. It's our first sale. And our only sale for a really long time. Yeah, we stood there for hours and we tried every trick. We told the story of the miraculous recession tree at least a dozen times.

No one was impressed. Four hours later, as the sun was starting to set, we had only sold the one tree. And so we got desperate. We drove around Brooklyn with a cowbell. Christmas trees! Christmas! Which actually got a few sales. Christmas trees! We also sold one to Robert's wife, to his neighbor. I sold two to my neighbors. And then we just started to show up at our NPR colleagues' apartments, forcing them to buy a tree for the sake of the podcast. Stacey Vanek-Smith. Robert Smith. How's it going? How's the Christmas tree business? How well could it be going if we're selling it to our co-workers at this point?

Jacob Goldstein, we've come to sell you a tree. 35. Come on. I'll give you 60 bucks. That's what Stacey paid. She didn't even question it. She wanted to pay more. Well, maybe it's worth more to her. Nick, I know you made a spreadsheet of our profits and loss. Here it is. With taxes, we paid $1,107.70 for the trees. And we sold all 19 of them for a grand total of $1,105.

That is a loss of $2.70. Before expenses. Yes, there is that. So for the sake of accounting, I'm going to book all of the expenses into the cost of the podcast part of the venture. We'll call it goodwill. And so basically we're even. That is some creative accounting.

Not going to lie, driving home that night, we were a little depressed. But later in the evening, one of our customers sent us a photo. Our tree was set up in their living room with sparkling lights and a little Santa on top. And you know, it did not look like a misfit. It didn't look like a number two tree. It looked like the Christmas tree of my childhood memories. And that family who paid $100 for their tree, Leo, Amanda, Sol, Zelta, they went home and, believe it or not, recorded this song about the experience. Leo Sidren, the dad, he's a composer. Strolling through the neighborhood the experience. Leo Sidron, the dad, he's a composer. And tried and tried and tried, tried to negotiate.

Then we paid a hundred dollars for a tree that's second rate. But it's funny because we bought it from the boys at Planet Money. That was Robert Smith and Nick Fountain from Christmas of 2020. And since then, we have, in fact, kept in touch with our friend Neil Courtney at the Buffalo Valley Produce Auction to periodically check in on the state of the Christmas tree market. And, you know, this year when we called up Neil, we had to, of course, talk about the one big economic force that has changed since we first met him back in 2020. Inflation. Who knows what the rate price is?

Inflation hit the world of everything. We're living in a wild economy. Labor costs, fertilizer, saws, all those inputs to the Christmas tree growing process are more expensive than they used to be. But Neil told us, for the most part, that stuff hasn't really been passed on to consumers, except at the very high end of the tree market, your super fancy luxury trees. Once again, the real story here is about the supply of Christmas trees. The last few years, tree growers have been essentially borrowing from

Christmas's future, cutting down trees they might otherwise have let grow. This year, after years of new planting, supply is finally starting to catch up with demand again, and Neal managed to have a record year in 2023. It was great. This sale was our biggest sale ever just by a little bit. Less work, more money. We actually sold 5,000 less trees in last year and grossed a crazy amount more money. And while that might make you think that that means the Christmas trees you and I buy have gone up in price, that doesn't seem to be the case. Neil told us that all these gains came from soaring prices on a different category of Christmas tree, the really, really big ones, 10 footers or bigger

that you might see in the lobby of a big office building. Those take longer to grow, so the supply of tall, tall trees hasn't come all the way back yet. And while in the past seven or eight years, Christmas trees have gotten more expensive, Neal says he thinks the market trend has finally begun to flatten out. I believe the cut Christmas tree market is going to stay on even keel now for a little while. Some of the retailers this year are saying their sales are off a little bit, but we're hoping that we come back even stronger next year. Neal's impression is that the average price of a Christmas tree will hover around the same price as last year, somewhere around 80 bucks. We always want to hear your stories. You can email us at planetmoney at npr.org, or you can find us on social media at Planet Money. Today's show

was originally produced by James Sneed with help from Gilly Moon. It was edited by Bryant Erstadt. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer. Special thanks to Matt Harsh for inspiring this episode and to Nick Fountain's father for use of his regular sized truck or small truck. It's a small truck. I've seen pictures.sized truck or small truck. It's a small truck. I've seen pictures. It's a small truck.

I'm Kenny Malone. This is NPR. Thanks for listening. And a special thanks to our funder, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, for helping to support this podcast. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities that help people achieve financial stability, upward mobility, and economic prosperity, regardless of race, gender, or geography. Kauffman.org