Pod Save the World - Starmer Brexits
Episode Date: June 24, 2026This week Tommy and Ben catch up on the latest in Iran negotiations, react to Keir Starmer’s resignation, and continue to celebrate World Cup fandom.First they walk through the text of the US-Iran ...memorandum of understanding — because now it’s clear why Trump didn't want anyone to see it. The guys break down everything Iran got, including sanctions relief and billions in unfrozen assets, compared to the very vague assurances the US received that Iran won't build a nuclear weapon and will keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Then they go over the latest negotiations in Switzerland, disagreements over what was agreed to, and why the war in Lebanon remains the biggest threat to its success. Across the pond, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced his resignation after Andy Burnham's decisive by-election win, setting up the UK to have its seventh prime minister in ten years. The guys also dive into Israel's increasingly close and diplomatically fraught relationship with Somaliland, and Colombia's razor-thin runoff election, which was won by a right-wing candidate who calls himself “El Tigre.” And finally, the World Cup remains an absolute joy — Ben and Tommy go over some of their favorite moments like underdog Cape Verde holding Spain and Uruguay to draws, Scottish fans taking over Boston and Miami, and Uzbek fans riding into a Houston stadium on horseback. At the end of the show, Ben speaks to Washington Post columnist Rana Ayyub about the Cockroach Movement in India, and how the war with Iran has spilled over into the country’s politics.For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast, episode title, and episode date.Buy Ben’s book All We Say: The Battle for American Identity: A History in 15 Speeches and subscribe to his Substack here.
Transcript
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Welcome back to Pod Save the World.
I'm Tommy Vitor.
I'm Ben, that was a hell of a time in Chicago last week for the Obama Library opening, man.
It's fun to see you briefly.
At World Wind, yeah, I got to parachute in for the book tour, so I didn't get to go to all the parties you guys went to, but I still had a great time.
You missed the hangovers, which is nice for you.
Maybe you didn't. I don't know. You spent a day with Cody as well. So you might have actually
tacked on both of those. Yeah. Well, I'm hungover from fatigue from this book tour, but I got to tour
the museum on the day that it was open to the public for the first day. And that was really
kind of special because it was basically all kind of Southside families. And I was the kind of only
person there, like who was kind of an alumni. Yeah. And so I got to kind of watch how other people
were reacting to it. Yeah. And that was pretty cool, you know.
That is really cool.
Yeah, like, not to be corny, but it felt like a family reunion and also a revival that left me feeling like, I don't know.
What, like, what other work reunion like that?
Are you that happy to see so many different people, like genuinely like overjoyed to like reconnect with people?
And then also, I like, again, not to be corny, but it really did make me want to just be more involved in politics and like more civically engaged and less like a cynical asshole on Twitter, which, you know, we'll see how long that holds.
But it was, uh, it was well done.
I have to say, like, it affected me more than I thought it would, both to have, like, thousands of people there that I knew or could recognize.
But also just the kind of, you know, without even trying that hard, the contrast of having, you know, whatever you think of the Obama's not being perfect, like, decent, well-meaning, motivated, articulate people.
Yeah.
You know, who, like, have a certain decorum and respect for politics in the country as contrasted against the night.
mirror that we live in every day. I mean, it was a powerful contrast. Yeah, the bar is low. I mean,
Sasha and Malia were not day trading on the Obama operation on the Calchia or whatever.
Yeah, they didn't have a drone. They weren't selling drone technology to the U.S. government.
Yeah. But yeah, no, it was an awesome, awesome week. By the way, if you want discounted tickets to
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So we got a great show for you guys today.
We're going to explain what's in the ceasefire memorandum
that was signed by the U.S. and Israel.
We'll walk you through all the details,
which side got what they wanted,
what's left to be negotiated, what's not mentioned at all.
We'll also recap the first round of peace talks in Switzerland and explain why there is still
considerable ongoing risk of global economic disruptions from the closure of the Strait of
Hermuz and also return to war, especially in Lebanon.
Then we're going to turn to the historic political changes happening in the UK, where
Prime Minister Kier Starrmer announced he's going to step down and newly elected MP Andy Burnham
will almost certainly take his place.
Then we're going to talk about why Israel decided to become the first country in the world
to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland.
we'll cover the recent elections in Colombia and then revel in the joy that is the FIFA World Cup.
And then, Ben, you did our interview today. What are we going to hear?
So I talked to Rana Ayyub, the extraordinary investigative journals from India, who's been on the pot a couple of times.
We talk about this new cockroach movement that has emerged in India against corruption and Modi.
If you want to know more about how there is a movement called the cockroach movement that has got fire, definitely check out the interview.
We will also hear about how Modi's up and down relationship with Trump is playing in India,
how the war in Iran is impacting Indians, how the bromance with Netanyahu, which included
a trip to Israel on the eve of the war on Iran that has now wreaked havoc on the Indian economy
has gone down.
So good checking on India, which we haven't done in a while, Indian politics and foreign policy,
people should check it out.
Didn't the U.S. shoot like a bunch of missiles into the ship that they'd killed three Indian sailors
in the Strait of Hamos?
That's it.
Yeah.
Rana talked about this, too.
they killed three Indian sailors and Modi said nothing about it.
Can you imagine if they did that to us?
It would be a World War before.
Anyway, I will definitely always listen to Ron Ayu.
She's an incredible journalist, like, you know, bravely doing work under great threat
to herself and, you know, people around her.
So, well, thank to her for coming on the show.
All right, let's start with the what's in this MOU band, because late last week, we finally
got to see the text of the memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran.
and it's now clear why Trump was trying to hide the thing and not disclose it.
So the peace talks have also already begun.
We'll get to that second.
But we're going to start just by walking you guys through what is and what is not in this document.
So there's a ceasefire, including in Lebanon.
The two sides agreed to 60 days of negotiations, but that negotiating period can be extended.
During that time, though, the 60 days, both sides will end the blockade of the Strait of
Hamuz, and the U.S. will start to move military assets out of the region that were used as part of the war.
And then Iran says they will not put fees on.
ships passing through the straight during the next 60 days. But down the road, it sure seems
like they are planning to. And then this is the list of stuff that I sort of categorized as what
Iran wanted and got out of the deal. So the U.S. is going to put in place a 60-day waiver,
a sanctions waiver on the sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products and derivatives and such.
One progressive economist estimated that Iran could make up to $10 billion off of that move alone.
At some point in the near future, Iran's going to get access to about $24 billion in frozen assets.
This is mostly money from previous Iranian oil sales that got stuck in foreign bank accounts because of sanctions.
And the MOU language is quite clear that they can spend this money on whatever they want.
Like this is the text.
The funds, quote, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran gets a commitment to remove all sanctions.
That means U.S. sanctions, U.N. sanctions, all of them.
And then there's this weird proposal to put together a $300 billion reconstruction fund of private money for Iran.
I'm skeptical that this is ever going to happen, but Reuters says there's been $150 billion in commitment, so who knows?
And then in terms of the U.S. wish list, Ben, so the straight of Hormuz gets reopened, kind of.
Like, in theory, we're back to the pre-war status quo, but in practice, it's a lot more complicated because shipping companies need to feel safe before they're going to send their massive multi-billion dollar tankers into war zones.
Iran reaffirms that they will never have a nuclear weapon.
We say reaffirm because they've already affirmed it before, both in the NPT and the JCPOA.
Getting them to say that is not the hard part.
It's negotiating the ways to prevent it is the hard part.
And then in terms of enrichment, whether Iran will enrich nuclear materials going forward, it says the two parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment.
So they punt on that big question.
And then in terms of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Iran has agreed to at least,
down blend its stockpile of enriched uranium, but not necessarily to ship it out of the country.
Downblending means you reduce the purity of the stockpile so that it is less close to weapons grade.
So maybe you downblend it to 3.7%, or 3.67%, which is what you use in, you know,
civilian energy projects or 0.7% is sort of like what's found in nature.
But of course, you can then enrich it back up if it remains in the country.
So not mentioned in this deal is Iran's support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah,
also not mentioned is Iran's ballistic missile program, which at the beginning of the war,
we were told was this massive existential threat that had to be taken care of.
Don't take it for me, Ben.
Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability.
Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability?
What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind it.
Meaning there would come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones,
and it can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program.
Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions.
Let me say that again.
A conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions.
Our bases, our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs.
Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.
I forgot we already also put the war crime beat poet Pete Heggseth in that clip.
So, Ben, we've said this many times.
The best available deal was the one that happened fastest and reopened the Strait of Hermuz
and prevented economies in Asia from collapsing and famines from kicking off around the world.
But in terms of the stated goals of this war, reading that document, we now know for sure
that Trump got taken to the cleaners by the Iranians.
Yeah, and I think you can compare it to also where they were in the negotiating table before the war,
because we have to remember that we bombed Iran in the middle of a previous negotiation.
And again, in that previous negotiation, the U.S. position was absolutely no enrichment,
absolutely no support for proxy groups and geographic limitations on the ballistic missile program,
i.e., they can't reach Israel with ballistic missiles.
The ballistic missiles and the proxy groups are completely off the table.
Enrichment is punted, so it's not really dealt with in this.
And then if you look at compared to the JCPOA, Iran did not get any money from its own frozen assets,
any money whatsoever, until after it did all of its commitments under the JCPOA, shipping out its stockpile,
ripping out centrifuges, destroying the core of its plutonium reactor, submitting to inspections.
They're getting that $10 billion just up front.
Like if they're able to start selling oil right away or accessing, yeah.
So they're getting that money without having to do any.
with their nuclear program essentially up front. We don't know what the final commitments are
going to be on the nuclear side. We don't know what the inspections regime is going to be to ensure
that Iran carries through on its obligations. It's incredibly loose. And the body language of the deal
is one of surrender. It's one of Iran won this war. We failed in our objectives. Trump wants out.
He's far more worried about continuing the war, continuing out the straight-of-form moves shut down
because of the economic impacts, then he is scared of, you know, what Iran will do with the money
or how it's going to look, that Iran seemingly defeated the United States in this conflict,
that Bibi Ninyahu is upset about it. That's very clear to the whole world. And so that suggests
that there's not a lot of pressure on Iran to make significant commitments in this next negotiating period
because they know that Trump just kind of wants out of this thing. And so, however this all shakes out,
Iran is in a stronger position than they were before the war. The United States, Trump is,
doing all the things that he trashed Obama for doing and frankly lied about some of the things
that Obama was doing. And I mean, like, there's no way to look at this other than a complete
humiliation for Trump. Yeah, look, I'm glad the war is over. But I do think it's important to
just call out how full of shit and hypocritical Trump and a lot of his goons were, both in the lead
up to this war, but also in their criticisms of the JCPOA. I mean, like, I found this old tweet,
Tim Miller forwarded to me today, Ben.
It was JD Vance attacking me personally and saying it was, quote, complete idiocy to suggest there was a distinction between unfreezing assets and giving Iran money.
I wonder if he still believes that.
Or me suggesting that some sort of diplomatic deal could force Iran to spend money on humanitarian supplies like J.D. Vance is now claiming this deal does.
But it wasn't just JD being a hypocritical piece of shit.
It was a bunch of them.
Let's roll a clip here.
Iran was a country that was in deep trouble.
they were doing badly
and then we took the sanctions off
and we should have never taken the sanctions
off before we finished the deal
we took the sanctions off before
you know why they're great negotiators they said
we will not negotiate unless you take
the sanctions off and our guy said
okay if you want to check Iran
the way to do it is to one
withdraw their oil money which
before Joe Biden's been bad about it
I do want to be recorded for history's purposes
before I know what was going to happen
in regards to this if it goes through
Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving and sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities.
It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States,
and it will raise the price of us operating in the region.
Consider yourself recorded for history, Marco.
It's just a little later than you thought.
It's just at the time that the JCPOA happened, they were making these bad faith arguments, right?
That the unfrozen assets that Iran was getting under the JCPOA, again,
after they did far more significant things on nuclear commitments was like writing a check to the
Iranians, right? And now they're making the exact same arguments. Like they don't even, I mean,
because, you know, they have no shame. There's a kind of, you know, bottomless well for them
in terms of their capacity for hypocrisy. I think that the important point here, though, is that
the failure, right, there's two failures that deserve to truly be highlighted here.
because, you know, it's not so much just a failure of diplomacy. It's the failure of the war,
right? This is the point. Like, going to war left us in a much worse place than using diplomacy did.
Yes. This is the main lesson that Americans, Democrats, and hopefully some Republicans will take
from this. The reason these terms are shitty is not just because they're shitty negotiators.
It's because they had a shittier hand because they went to war.
Exactly. And all the decades of here.
hearing that, you know, the way you show you're tough and the way to solve problems is to bomb
countries and to go to war was just proven, like, categorically wrong. And I think the other
thing that deserves to be called out here is the absolute, like, bad faith characterizations
of diplomacy in the past because they spent years discrediting a nuclear deal that they now
would give anything to get. Yep, exactly. Like, and there has to be some.
accountability for this. And our politics and our media is so bad at holding, you know,
why is anybody going to ask Lindsey Graham his opinion on anything ever again?
Dude, I lost my mind. Or Mark Rubio, for that matter. Or Rubio, right. I mean, I saw Lindsey Graham
on Face the Nation this Sunday. And he was saying, oh, well, if this deal doesn't work out,
we're going to go back to war. And then Trump's going to take control of the straight.
Then we're going to take 20% of all the revenue for the oil that goes through. And it's like,
why are you booking this fucking moron on your show?
Exactly. How many wars does he have to be wrong about?
He was wrong about Iraq.
He was wrong about Iran.
He's a barnacle who just, like, lives on Trump's ass.
And, like, we don't need to hear from this man.
I don't ever need to hear from Mark Dubowitz or anyone at the foundation for the
defense of democracy think tank.
Like, no one has been as thoroughly discredited that these stupid, warmonger, bloodthirsty,
neocon hacks.
Run them out of Washington.
Stop quoting them in your articles.
David Sanger in New York Times.
Like, all of you, like, lose their phone numbers.
Please, they're fucking clowns.
Yeah.
they're just pissing on your leg, you know? And I mean, I'm sorry that you gave me an image that I
always have of Lindsay Graham being a barnacle and Donald Trump's ass. But it's absolutely correct.
And because this is the point that this connects to what I was saying about the war and the accountability.
You are treated as serious in Washington. Yep. If you want to bomb countries. Yep. Right.
So like if you're a super progressive, if you're like a leftist in Congress, you would never get
booked on a Sunday show because it's like, you know, that person doesn't, that's not a serious.
foreign policy person, right? Lindsay Graham is far less serious. This is a man who just advocates for war
and then can turn on a dime if Donald Trump, like, instructs him to do so. He's not, like, the FDD crowd and all the
people that sold this war posing essentially as like impartial experts when they were clearly
just fucking pushing an agenda to do this. And now we did the thing that they wanted and it proved
out to be catastrophically wrong. So there's no reason that you need to like treat these people's
experts just because they want to fight wars. And I've said this a couple times for Tommy,
but like, it was harder to get the JCPOA through Congress than it was to go to war in Iraq than
it was for Donald Trump to go to war in Iran. That's fucked up. And that's what needs to change
in American politics and media and foreign policy. In 2015, the Congress passed a special law just
to make it harder to do a diplomatic deal with Iran, but they've completely just like given up their
role in declaring war or, you know, authorizing war. It's, it's, it's. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's,
It's insane. Let's talk about the peace talks, though, Ben, because the negotiation between Iran and the U.S. took place in Burgen stocks, Switzerland over the weekend. You see photos of this resort they were at, by the way?
Yeah, yeah, not bad. It looked pretty nice.
Sound of music. Yeah. Things got out to a rocky start. On Saturday, the IRGC announced they were closing the Strait of Hormuz again because of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon. I don't think they actually did it, but traffic is nowhere near where it was before the war.
So Trump took that announcement by the IRGC very well telling Fox News, quote, you close it and you won't have a country.
You won't even make it back to your fucking country, end quote.
So it's always good to threaten to kill the negotiators right before you have a little chat.
Despite all of that, the talks finally happened.
Unfortunately, they were led by J.D. Vance, who's a clown and kind of like the bumbling, idiot traveling duo of Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner.
The two sides claim to have agreed to the following.
The establishment of a high-level committee to provide political oversight on the talk.
And then there's a working group of like actually qualified people that will do most of the work in the negotiations.
They agreed on a roadmap to get the deal done in 60 days.
Communications line to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
And then a quote, deconfliction cell to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MOU, end quote.
So some, you're trying to find some sort of way to prevent fighting from Hezbollah and Israel from flaring up into a rupture that sort of blows up the whole thing.
But there's also some major disagreements or at least competing.
claims from the two sides. So J.D. Vance and Trump are saying that Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors
back into Iran, but Iran says they have no plans to let inspectors back into sites bombed by the U.S.
in Israel. Remember, before the 12-day war, the IAEI had access to those sites. Then they got kicked
out because the war started. Vance also tried to claim that unfrozen Iranian assets would only be used to
buy American crops. As I discussed earlier, Iran is saying, no, we can spend that money on whatever we want.
It's kind of in the term of the deal. Trump claims the straight is fully open. It's moving at record
volumes. The reality is like a couple dozen ships a day are going through. That is not even close to the
pre-war levels and there's still naval mind to contend with. And then Trump says Iran will never charge a toll on
ships in the strait, but Iran has already set up this new company to eventually charge insurance for
ships passing through the strait. Then I saw this announcement today from the Iranians and Oman,
where they announced they're discussing costs for the services they provide. So again, it sure sounds
like they're setting up a toll there. Both sides sounded an optimistic note on the way out. Iran's foreign
minister said, quote, Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end the
Lebanon war. And then this is a clip from J.D. Vance's couple of press avails. Let's watch.
Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted
to do. The final deal is the house. We set the foundation. We haven't built the house,
but we've laid a successful foundation to get to a good place for the American people.
What we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys engage in what us millennials might call
trash talk, you can't expect the president of the United States not to respond and not to correct
the record. This region has been a basket case for a very long time. I've spent a lot of time
dealing with the Iranians over the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely confusing as
negotiators. Okay, I love like a plotting pedantic metaphor, followed by him defining what
trash talk is, followed by sort of like insulting the other party. But I don't know, Ben,
consider me skeptical of these guys are getting a nuclear deal done. I bet they just kind of, you know,
punt this thing, you know, keep extending to.
talks, keep shipping going, but what do you think?
Yeah, I mean, that's the thing because, like, Iran knows a few things, right?
So the first is, I mean, a few months ago, you know, we made this comparison.
But in the Suez crisis, right, when England and France and Israel went to war to stop Egypt
from nationalizing the Suez, guess what ended up happening?
On the back end of that, Egypt kept tolling the Suez, they're still doing it today.
Iran has shown that they can extract revenue from the Strait of Hormuz, so they know that
they can do that even if they don't get a nuclear deal, right?
So even if they don't get a nuclear deal, they can try to find some money by saying, like,
there's some new insurance premium you have to pay, and you have to pay to both Iran and Oman,
so it feels like it's, you know, not just Iranians.
And so, again, they don't necessarily need some additional sanctions relief to find more
revenue absent a nuclear deal.
The second thing they know is how likely is it that given how calamitous and politically
catastrophic this was for Trump, how likely is it that, no matter what Lindsey Graham says,
that Trump's going to go back to war with Iran.
in 60 days right for midterm election because you didn't get a nuclear deal. Yeah. So I think it's
quite possible, if not likely, that Iran like pockets that 10 billion, maybe they get that 24 billion,
maybe they get some of the $300 billion investment fund that's going in there, which,
who knows, maybe Jared and Whitkoff are getting in on the game for Iranian infrastructure.
I don't know. Just asking questions here. Wouldn't surprise me. But they can still get tons of
money and control the Strait of Hormuz without making any nuclear concessions. And they also
know that J.D. Vance, you know, they don't like it when Trump threatens to destroy their country
because who would. And they don't like it when he threatens to kill the negotiators because in the past,
they have bombed and killed people that were in the Iranian political system during negotiations.
But they also know that J.D. Vance just wants to get through the next Fox News.
He wants out of that. He wants to get back on his plane and go home.
He wants to stop Tucker Carlson for running for president in his lane next time around.
And so if J.D. Vance needs to do a fox hit and talk about how they're only buying American
crops. Like they're in and the text says what it does like all right jd like go lie and gaslight your
own people because the iranians are going to have that money anyway so the iranings are again to use
a trump terminology they're holding like all the fucking cards and jd vans is just like spinning around
in circles to be the one who rebuilds his cred with like megan kelly and tucker carlson yeah i just
yeah jd vans was talking about the stupid like forcing them to buy american wheat and corn deal like
it was some brilliant idea from from uh jared kushner
of all people. But you're right. I mean, like, I just saw the delegations and it's like,
on our side, it's these bumbling idiots who just want to make money and get back to their
talks with the Russian oligarchs and not solve the war in Ukraine. And on their side, it's like
incredibly experienced diplomats and nuclear experts who have literally nothing else and nothing
better to do with their lives. And they will grind them down into a pulp if that's what it takes.
Yeah. It's the same people of Osirachi, the prime minister, like negotiated for years with us,
the last nuclear deal.
Like these, and they'll be there.
Guess what?
They'll also be there after Trump.
They know that.
Trump's gone in like two years.
And was Jared, like,
remember like Scott Besson,
turned out to be a soybean farmer?
You really think that Jared Kushner wakes up every day,
worried about like selling wheat to somebody?
No, Jared Kushner is probably more interested in getting,
again,
a piece of the action of the $300 billion Gulf Fund
that's going into Iranian infrastructure.
Yeah, he's focused on getting deals for the Saudis
or wherever is paying his checks.
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One big unresolved problem in the war remains Lebanon.
Ben. So on Friday, four Israeli soldiers were killed when Hezboa hit an IDF tank. Israel retaliated,
killing at least 47 people. But Israeli Prime Minister Bibianenayahu continues to insist that Israel
will not withdraw from the territory it is currently occupying in southern Lebanon and said,
quote, our fighters in southern Lebanon have full freedom of action to thwart any direct or emerging
threat to them or to the residents of the north, end quote, and that they will stay in Lebanon for as long
as is necessary. Now, for what it's worth, CNN's reported that Israel is considering like symbolic
limited withdrawals from parts of the country, I assume, to make Trump happy. But Netanyahu is getting
hammered by his political opponents for this deal, especially what's happening in Lebanon. For example,
Neftali Bennett said Netanyahu is not telling the truth about the IDF's freedom of action in
southern Lebanon. And that, quote, the truth is our boys' hands are tied. And that, quote,
the enemy understands the limitations and exploits him for rapid reestablishment that will lead to
harm to the lives of our soldiers. In other words, he's saying this deal is going to get
idea of soldiers killed. Trump seemed oddly surprised by all the pushback in Israel, Ben.
Here's a quick clip of him getting asked about Lebanon in the Oval Office on Monday.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nanyahu said his forces are not leaving Lebanon.
That is a sticking point.
Who did he tell that to you?
He said it publicly in Israel.
Well, we're going to take a look at it.
Well, what would you do to make sure that he doesn't say a God's me.
Well, I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do, but it gets solved.
I'm a problem solved.
I get problems out real fast, including with BB.
It's also been interesting to watch kind of like the increasingly aggressive pushback from the White House on Netanyahu and on Israel.
So, for example, here's some comments from J.D. Vance to kind of make the point.
You've seen people in their system, Ben-Givir and Smotrich, who've attacked the deal.
And I guess my response to them would be, what is your exact proposal?
And, you know, you're a country of nine million people.
You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.
Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation
of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower.
If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful
ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.
Just can only imagine if Barack Obama said that what APEC would be saying.
And we also heard that Trump suggested Israel should let get out of Lebanon and let the Syrians take care of Hezbollah.
That is an excellent recipe for a brutal regional war since the Syrians hate Hezbollah because they helped Assad massacre the opposition in the Syrian Civil War.
Luckily, President Ahmed al-Shara said no thanks to that crazy idea.
But Ben, look, again, I'm very concerned that this is going to be the spoiler that blows up the peace talks.
I hope I'm wrong, but it sure seems like Netanyahu has a pretty strong,
political incentive to blow up this deal and just kind of make these attacks on him go away
in advance of the election. Yeah, no, Netanyahu needs a war. Without a war, there's no justification
for why he should be prime minister, be it in Iran or Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank or what have
you. Now, there's so much that is kind of fucked up about this. So first of all, like, are we not
supposed to notice that Israel's occupying southern Lebanon? You know, like, what is the legal basis
under which they're just like claiming a huge chunk of Lebanese territory and hanging out.
And also like it's really like, you know, because sometimes the way people talk about this,
it acts like, well, you know, Netanyahu, like, you know, he's got a political problem because
he needs to continue the war in Lebanon.
Like, consider how profoundly messed up it is that what has gone wrong in Israeli politics,
that it's a problem if you're not like fighting a war and bombing people in Lebanon.
Like, what has gone wrong in our politics that it's seen as logical that because four Israeli soldiers were killed who are in Lebanon, that they kill 47 civilians in response.
Like, the whole world sees this and how dark it is.
And the degree of frustration in America, because Americans know that Nanyahu talked Trump into this, is catching up to frankly where the whole world is, which is why on earth are we justifying?
and enabling and facilitating and arming an Israeli government to just kind of fight a forever
war in Lebanon because it's good for Beebe's politics. And then Nathali Bennett, one of his
chief opponents, like, is just outflanking him to the right. And that's just how it is. Gary Lapid, too.
Yeah, everyone's from the right. Yeah. This is dark. It is not normal. We should call it out.
It's demonstrating the problem in Israeli politics is not just Bibi Nanyahu, though. He's a big
part of it. You know, so that's messed up. J.D. Vance is like,
pretty brutish comments here are indicative of where the politics are going in the Republican Party.
Very much so. We know where the politics are in the Democratic Party. What constituency do people
exist for enabling this? And the last thing I'd say about the deal itself, we just talked about
Iran's disincentives for making actual nuclear concessions. This is going to be a giant one,
because Iran's going to be able to say, if this is still going on, if Israel's still occupying
something Lebanon, well, wait a second. You guys didn't implement your side of the deal.
deal, why should we, like, get rid of our enrichment of nuclear materials when, you know,
Israel is still in southern Lebanon? So it lets Iran off the hook, ironically, if Israel is violating
the terms of the deal, because it gives the Iranians a basis for tolling the straight of Hormuz
and not making nuclear concessions because they can say, well, nobody's really keeping the terms
of this thing. Yeah, this is a total mess. I don't have confidence in any of these talk sticking or
the Israelis staying on sides in southern Lebanon. But I don't know.
I guess all we can do is knock on wooded and hope because another closure, a prolonged closure of this trade of whom moves would lead to catastrophic economic consequences and just impact people thousands of miles away who might starve to death. And that's just the worst case scenario. Ben, let's turn to the UK, where you are currently. I think you're in London. Yes. I'm in London. By the way, event tonight, Wednesday in London at Intelligence Square. If people want to come see me.
Nice. Yeah, come see Ben. Bring Kears Starmer. He's got some good time. With Coco. Coco con is interviewing.
So it'll be actually fun and funny.
That's great.
I love Coco.
No, I didn't mean it like that.
I just mean like she's absolutely hilarious.
No, it's true.
She's funnier than me.
No, she's funnier than your average book moderator is what I'm getting at.
I say saying that as having been one, usually they're not as like effort-besson as Coco.
So our buddies across the pond, we're about to have their seventh prime minister in 10 years.
On Monday, Prime Minister Kirstarmer announced that he's going to resign.
Here's a bit of his speech outside number 10 Downing Street.
I was told time and time again that my party was finished, that we were consigned to history,
that a majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority, was impossible.
But we proved those people wrong.
The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general
election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question. Every decision I've
taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of
the Labour Party. I shall spend more time on the most important job. Being the best husband I
can to my fantastic wife, Vick, and being the best dad I can, to my beautiful children, who are my
pride and my joy. So, Sturmer's resignation came after his political rival, Andy Burnham,
decisively won his race for Parliament. This was that make or feel by-election that we talked
about previously. Burnham got 55% of the vote, while his opponent from the right-wing reform
UK party only got 33% or 35%, so about 20-point victory, that huge margin convinced Labor
MPs that Burnham was a better option to lead them into the next election.
Starmor initially promised to fight for his job, but that all changed after even members of his
own cabinet said it was time to go.
So what happened and what comes next?
On the what happened front, analysts seem to agree on a few reasons why Starmor only
made it through two years of a five-year term after leading labor to this landslide of victory
back in 2024.
So there were a couple smaller things.
There were big controversies and scandals like taking free gifts.
And then there was a far bigger scandal of naming Jeffrey Epstein's buddy Peter and Mandelson to be ambassador to the UK.
There were some dumb policy decisions and then backtracking on some policy decisions that made him look weak and indecisive.
But the big things you hear is that Starmer just never adequately laid out a vision for the job or a plan for what he wanted to do.
And then even when he was successful, he was bad at communicating it, not just lacking charisma, but I think unable to tell a bigger story about his vision and labor leadership.
And frankly, Ben, I think that farewell speech, not to be unfair to the guy, but it was kind of an example of the kind of dry, like laundry list stuff we'd hear from him pretty often.
So in terms of what happens next, the Labor Party will have a leadership process.
But it seems like former, you know, greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham will almost certainly win it and become the next prime minister.
Burnham's one big potential rival was a guy named West Streeting.
West Reading had quit the Starmer cabinet, but he's already bowed out and endorsed Andy Burnham.
Starmor says he wants the process wrapped up by July 16th, but things could get done faster.
Of course, Donald Trump had to humiliate Starmor on his way out the door by confirming Starmor's resignation before he had had a chance to do it himself, which is just wonderful move, wonderful guy.
So, Ben, again, you're in the U.K. as we speak, Class Act.
Thoughts on the Stammer legacy in Burnham's future.
And what's the reaction been like there with the people you've talked to?
Yeah, I was here doing British media all day talking, obviously, to people who follow politics closely to.
And I mean, it's kind of anticlimactic.
You know, nobody was surprised by the time this happened.
I think as soon as Andy Burnham won and won with that result, it was clear.
If people say, like, well, what's won by-election say about his ability to win a general election?
I think the basic analysis was like, look, this guy's from, you know, Manchester, Northern England.
This is the kind of part of the country where labor has been losing a lot of support to reform and other parties.
And so not only does he win that election decisively, but he also kind of comes from the region that they need to kind of win back.
And so once he won with that margin, it was pretty clear he was going to have the support.
It was also the case that all the reporting here was that he'd already lined up essentially a majority of labor MPs.
So it was kind of game over for Starmer.
Look, I think if you look at the legacy, I guess on the positive side, you know, because you kind of feel sympathy for someone who won a general election.
and then he kind of has to resign early.
You know, the positive legacy he won.
Like he kind of positioned labor to be in a place to win a general election and return
to power.
That matters a lot.
You know, and then, you know, there's a bunch of smaller things that people can point to,
you know, changes that he made and this or that policy.
But that kind of leads to the negative.
As you pointed out, like, what was the big program?
What was the big vision?
You know, like what was like both the story he was telling about where Britain was going
and also like what are the kind of big agenda items?
Like what was his vision for the NHS, the National Health Service,
or for restoring growth in the UK,
or kind of rebuilding a relationship with Europe after Brexit?
Like he was playing these kind of small ball items and policy.
And then his communications was always kind of dry and a bit defensive.
And it just like you just didn't ever have the sense that he kind of had the reins here.
And he was always kind of reactive.
and he was always kind of on defense.
And meanwhile, you've got, like, Nigel Farage,
like, not a person has a problem communicating,
like, you know, vaulting up.
And I think people just ultimately decided, like,
it's just too dangerous.
Nobody kind of felt that Starmer was the best choice
to kind of lead labor through the next couple of years
and then into a general election
against, like, a, you know, a huge threat
to British democracy and reform.
And so there's unknown about, like, what Andy...
I mean, the second thing we should say,
you're Tommy, is that it's not like it's particularly clear
what Annie Burnham's vision is. No, not at all. He's to, yeah, he's to Starmer's left. He's a more
charismatic politician. And so that, you know, that's enough for some people, right? Like,
he's just a better politician. And, you know, for the progressives, like, it seems like he'll
be a little bit more where they are. We should add, on the progressive side, a lot of frustration
with Starmers, you know, pretty much aligned with Israel. Like, he didn't really break support
on Israel's policy in Gaza.
He's kind of prosecuted these people for like free speech crimes just because they like speak up in defense of Palestine.
So, you know, that didn't help him on the left either.
So look, I think you can feel bad for the guy and you can kind of say like, you know what?
He seemed like he did his best and he got labor back in power.
But, you know, not exactly a big surprise here.
Yeah.
In some ways you could argue that like the left in the labor party got a lot of what they wanted, things like, you know, good things on workers rights, stuff for trade unions, stuff for renters, a higher minimum wage.
some tax hikes.
They have to be nationalized the trains.
But you're right.
Yeah, they move slowly on Israel at best.
But ultimately, the polling, it wasn't just that the polling showed that voters wanted
it to go.
I mean, the six and ten Britons told UGov that they thought it was the right thing for
him to quit.
But also, there was a poll recently that found that labor led by Kirstarmer would be,
that reform would be eight points ahead of labor in the election.
But with Andy Burnham leading labor reform.
would only be one point ahead.
So there was some polling that suggested labor would be better positioned with Andy Burnham in charge.
And then just like results are results.
You know, like we can look at all the polls you want.
But when you're Andy Burnham and you run and you kick the shit out of the reform candidate
and the constituency like the one you described, I mean, that's going to wake a lot of people up.
And just to add sort of like the pile on, you know, there's also people blame Keir Starmor for like listening to Morgan McSweeney, his advisor too much.
He was sort of like primarily focused on with crushing the kind of course.
Orbanista wing of the party.
I think that people thought he seemed too dower and gloomy.
I saw a great analysis piece where one MP described what happened to Starmor
as the fate of the third plumber.
So you have a leak in your house.
Your toilet is broken.
The first plumber shows up.
It doesn't work.
You're like, oh, that sucks.
The second one comes, then it doesn't work.
The third one can't get it done and you want to kill that guy.
That was kind of the metaphor this person used.
You've also heard to an analyst say, like, I don't know, man, maybe the UK is now
ungovernable as they're going from a two-party system.
to a five, maybe six party system. The biggest problem Andy Burnham is going to have is going to be
growth. They've kind of had, you know, they've been stuck in the mud. The wheels have been spinning
on economic growth. They have not really reckoned with Brexit. I think we just hit the 10-year
anniversary of Brexit and they just still haven't figured that shit out. And then you have a totally
unreliable Donald Trump reminding the world why we're no longer a good ally as the UK is at
Brexit. And I think, you know, Rory Stewart, who I know you talk to today is always talking about
how, you know, if you're looking forward for the UK economically, like they have no domestic
AI industry. So what happens if the U.S. just cuts off their access to all the anthropic models,
like we just did the other day? So there's a lot of X factors out there, a lot of challenges ahead.
Yeah, I'm glad you brought up the Brexit thing because today is actually the 10th anniversary
of Brexit. And I think the common threat here is that no British politician has been able to
articulate kind of what this country's future is after Brexit. I mean, the right could only articulate
getting to Brexit, but not kind of what came next. A lot of the economic problems are because of
Brexit. Like they lost the market access that came with the EU. They're kind of a, they're an island,
quite literally. And I think so for Andy Burnham, like the advice I'd give is number one, yes,
you have these problems. Like there's not a lot of money and it's hard to find growth. But if you can
give a vision, like a big vision about where the horizon is, like what,
we're trying to get to. If you can, instead of doing like a million little things, like pick
two or three bigger things that may not fix every problem, but give people a sense of progress
in their lives, if you do more, you know, Starmer was very tentative about kind of rebuilding
relationship with Europe. And, you know, maybe you're not going to go all the way back in the
EU right away, but like, you know, begin to negotiate more agreements to get closer to Europe that kind of
indicates, hey, like, we kind of overreached on the Brexit thing. And the last thing I'd say, Tommy, is
stand up to Trump.
You're like, if I'm Andy Burnham, I'm doing the Georgia Maloney thing, I'm picking fights with Trump.
Because you know what, Trump's going to be an asshole anyway.
Kier Starmar was really nice to him.
He gave him like the World Carriage ride when he came to town.
Like, I actually think Brits need a little confidence here.
You know, they need a little like Hugh Grant and Love Actually, you know, like they,
I mean, I mean, maybe not the best analogy there.
But you know what I mean?
Yeah.
There's a lack of confidence here, right?
And they want, if you get strong visionary leadership and storytelling about what this
country is and where it's going. I say this country because I'm sitting here. I think would
maybe buy you a little time with voters. I think you think politics is pretty basic and it's like
strong, weak, tough, kind of soft. And I think, you know, Kierre Starmer just never looked,
he looked weak in the face of Trump. And I think you got to figure out a way to fight back and do it
a little more assertively just so you don't look like you're getting walked on.
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Let's switch gears, turn to Africa and talk about the relatively new relationship
between Israel and a place called Somaliland.
So for context, Somaliland is this breakaway, self-declared state in the Horn of Africa.
It declared independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 after a long and brutal civil war.
Now, if you look at a map, you'll see Somalia is kind of shaped like the head of an arrow pointing northeast on the map.
The territory running along the Indian Ocean is Somalia, and there's a little chunk of the top along the Gulf of Aden that neighbors Djibouti.
That is Somaliland.
Somaliland used to be a British colony, but it gained independence in 1960 and united with Somalia.
but now they want to basically undo that decision to become an independent state.
But one of their challenges has been that no other countries would recognize them until recently.
In December of 2025, Israeli Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu announced that Israel and Somaliland
had established diplomatic relations.
In March of this year, Bloomberg reported that Israel was trying to build a military base in Somaliland.
And then more recently, there have been reports that Israel had already deployed a small number of troops to Somaliland.
Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister said the other day that the two countries had been secretly coordinating for years.
So listeners might be wondering why.
Why would Israel, of all countries, support a breakaway state seeking independence?
That seems like a bad precedent for them with the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, et cetera, right?
The primary reason is the Houthi rebels.
So we've talked about the Houthis a bunch.
The Houthis are the Iranian-backed political and military organization in Yemen that has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States.
The Houthis have fired missiles at ships in the Red Sea and protests of the war in Gaza.
They've also fired lots of missiles at Israel itself.
And so a permanent base in Somaliland would give Israel surveillance and military capabilities
that are much closer to Yemen itself.
It would let them track Houthi movements and missile launches and whatever else the
Houthis and the Iranians are doing in the Gulf of Aden.
There's also been reports of a much darker rationale, which is that Somaliland could be a
destination for people pushed out of Gaza as part of an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign.
other countries named in the reporting, I think it was an AP story about this, was Sudan and
Somalia, so a bunch of very safe places with lots of economic opportunity for the Ghazans
who would be displaced here. For what it's worth, there are reasonable arguments on the merits
for why Somaliland should be its own state. They've been peacefully self-governing for over 30 years.
They've had elections. They have a currency. They've executed peaceful transfers of power.
Meanwhile, Somalia is a disaster. It's a bastion for terrorist groups like al-Shabaab. But a big argument
against recognition is that the African Union does not recognize Somalia land, nor do any other
African countries, because they don't want to see a wave of breakaway independence movements like that.
So the Trump administration was talking about this possible recognition during the transition.
I think that then was more about hedging their bets in Djibouti, which is the home to the
only permanent U.S. military base in Africa and several thousand U.S. personnel and a whole bunch
of drones.
But Djibouti, the problem in Djibouti is they basically sell base access to any country that can
afford it. So you've got this cluster of bases packed into a tiny area, which means the U.S.
base is two miles from the Chinese base, literally. And I think the Pentagon is probably worried
about a Nizier situation where, like, a coup or a political change means suddenly you're
kicked out of the country and have no access. So, Ben, sorry for the long wind up there.
But what do you think the logic of this move is for Israel? Their real motivation, like, why they're
going so public with it now? And what are some of the downside risks, do you think?
Well, look, it's pretty obvious that Israel is doing this for strategic.
strategic reasons.
I mean, do we really think that in Israeli foreign policy, they looked at the entire world
and that they decided that there's kind of a moral cause for them to recognize Somalia.
It is clearly strategically placed, as you said, like near the Houthis, which is a concern
of Israel's.
It's a potential venue for Israeli military intelligence operations, you know, not just against
the Houthis, but, you know, kind of in the Gulf region generally.
And I just think that's a shitty reason to go ahead and be the first country to establish a
immac relations.
Like there's not like a, you know, I'm sure the talking points are about their self-government,
but does anybody truly believe, again, that like that's what, you know, motivated Netanyahu
to do this, right?
And so that leads to the risk.
Because the risk is you're not only kind of destabilizing, you know, this region in some
ways because the other countries don't want it.
But what are we now saying?
like any little breakaway province that it has like a grievance and there are many,
not just in Africa, but in other places, but like we can just talk about Africa,
that essentially if they, you know, offer their territory to some power,
be it Israel or somebody else for a military base, like suddenly they can get diplomatic,
you know, recognition.
It's just another sign that we're in like an age in which everything is just, you know,
transactional.
There are no rules.
There's no processes.
these institutions like the African Union and the United Nations kind of don't matter.
It's an end run around all of that.
And so I think that's your risk, right?
You're encouraging separatism.
You're encouraging like the sale of, you know, sovereignty for military base purposes.
And yes, you know, potentially maybe you're creating a venue for the ethnic cleansing of
Palestinians.
So it doesn't, you know, it doesn't smell right even if you could find cause to have some sympathy
to Somali land.
Yeah.
And even in sort of like the direct sort of Horn of Africa region, I mean, I think Ethiopia came
closest to recognizing Somaliland, but then they backed away because all their neighbors were not
happy about it. But I think they've cut a deal to get port access in Somaliland. The port is actually
operated by the Emirates weirdly. But that pissed off the Egyptians who have a dispute with Ethiopia
over water rights and access because they're both dependent on the Nile River. And the Ethiopians
built a giant dam. Wait, I thought jump into that war. Yeah, right. That war, you just, it's all gone
now. So then Egypt cut a deal with the Somali. So yeah, it's just sort of like exacerbating regional tensions.
I'm sure this won't help.
Interesting story, though, and one will keep watching.
Speaking of which, another interesting election that we covered earlier this month was
Columbia's election.
There were the first round results in May.
That set led to a runoff with a progressive candidate, Yvonne Sepeda, and the right-wing
candidate, Abelardo de la Espreya, also known as the Tiger.
So that runoff ended this past weekend.
The results are now in.
So the Tiger, the right-wing candidate, he narrowly won.
The Guardian reported he got 12.96 million.
votes, which is about 90, I'm sorry, 49.66% of the vote compared to Sepeda's 48.7% of the vote.
It's worth noting that the margin this time was even smaller than in the first round.
De La Sbrea will take over with a minority in Congress in a very divided country.
Just for funzi's Ben, here's Trump commenting on the election and, of course, making it all about
himself.
Let's watch.
On Colombia, they can't.
Oh, El-Tibre.
Yeah, but I know that you have four.
I endorsed him. He was in 10th place. I endorsed him, but he won the election.
Yeah, I'm surprised. No different than this country.
You had a full conversation with, Abel. I did. He called me last night, and he thanked me for the endorsement. He won. He won the election.
He wasn't anticipated to win, but he won, and he won handily. It's just an honor. He was just a good man. I'd watch him a little bit speak, and he always speak. You know, when people like me, I like them. It's very simple. It's a very,
Simple formula and I like them.
He said really nice things about me and the job we've done in the United States and
very, very powerful.
And he won an election in Colombia that I don't know.
Some people were surprised.
Simple formula.
And then again, just for fun, here's De LaSpreilla's workout routine that he posted on Instagram.
Not to be a total bro, but if you're going to call yourself the tiger and wear gloves in your
home gym, you got to be putting up more than like 30s when you're doing bench.
then it seems like we're going to see a return to a militarized war on drugs, more coordination
with the U.S., probably with Pete Hegsef, and just the U.S. military bombing suspected drug traffickers
will probably see the construction of mega prisons like El Salvador did.
There's all these lawsuits against the press from the tiger.
What do you think about these results and kind of what it says about the future of the U.S.
relationship with Colombia and sort of Columbia's role in the region?
I don't feel good about it.
I mean, first of all, we should say, this is not about Trump.
I mean, it's not like they're voting for Trump.
I think one of the things it is clear is in Colombia, as we've seen in other countries,
Ecuador, you know, El Salvador previously, there are real concerns about security.
You know, there's a sense of insecurity.
It's too violent, and people are just kind of looking for something that feels a little more secure in that manner.
And also, you know, there's a natural, there's a left-right swing that tends to happen in Columbia.
I think the things that concern me are, like, first of all, the closest of this result,
and Petro, the outgoing president kind of alleged fraud or fraud.
He accused the U.S. and Israel of basically rigging votes.
The U.S. and Israel of election interference without any, we should say, without any evidence,
really.
But look, like, I don't think the tiger, like, people should know this guy is not just a normal,
like, right-wing politician.
Like, he is promised to build, like, mega prisons in the jungle, you know, like, like,
like we're looking at in El Salvador.
Who knows what may be deporting people down there from, you know, the United States,
and we may be locking up people en masse like they didn't El Salvador.
That's not good.
And this kind of validation of a right-wing shift in Latin America is alarming because
we've already seen in Buckele, a guy changed the Constitution to keep himself in power, you know,
and who knows where, you know, how many these right-wing leaders end up being democratic in the long run.
And so, again, I truly don't, this is not just kind of because I don't like Trump.
I don't think this is because of Trump.
I think there's other factors behind this.
But the reality is these guys are going to be a block.
They are going to work with Trump.
They are going to work with either the U.S. military or Eric Prince's security contracting
type outfits to do things that probably, you know, call in the question, let's just say
that human rights is probably not going to be top of mind for these guys.
I think another election, this makes the Brazil election, which is later.
this year, that much more important.
Big.
Because if Lula, the incumbent president loses and the right wing takes over in Brazil, too,
man, it's going to be lonely down there for center-lefts and progressive and socialist
politicians.
So, you know, it bears watching, but I don't feel great about the result.
Brazil's elections coming up in October.
Right now, we got Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala with left-wing governments in
the region, the rest are shifting to the right.
Yeah, the tiger seems like a charming guy on a political talk show.
He told a female journalist to look at a person.
picture of him in sweatpants to understand why so many women are voting for him. So that's cool.
But yeah, wonderful, wonderful folks that Trump is endorsing. Finally, Ben, I am fully addicted
to watching the World Cup. The England game is on, I think, probably as we speak. It might be over by now.
Yeah. They're playing right now. They're probably screaming in the streets. I'm already sad about
an ending. I'd love to talk about it with you for a minute. First of all, the U.S. team is awesome.
The Paraguay game was incredible. Got to go to that. It was the best experience ever.
And we looked awesome in the first half against Australia.
We're not going to talk about the second half because, you know, whatever we won.
Then there's like the underdog stories, Cape Verde, Cabo Verde.
That's been incredible.
It's a tiny island nation.
It's like 350 miles off the western coast of Africa.
It's like half a million people, one of the smallest countries, to compete in the World Cup.
They battled Spain to a draw.
Spain is supposed to be one of the best teams in the entire tournament.
Then they battled Uruguay to a draw this past Sunday.
check out this BBC clip.
These guys went live
right as Cape Verde
scored their first goal
and check those out.
What's your appraisal
of the way the KVayyan team
has been playing so far?
I personal think so far
Cabo Verde has been playing great.
He's been matching Uruguay's
pressure.
Go!
Get to go!
Not to go!
Not to go!
Oh, one!
The King Verde has broken
history.
Tonight,
scoring a live goal here.
And you can see him.
What can see him?
We pass into the next phase.
History.
We are going to the next phase.
I love that so much.
I love those.
They had a 40-year-old goalie who shut out Spain and then went from 50,000 to 15 million
Instagram followers.
Yeah.
There was a player who got recruited via LinkedIn DM and he literally thought it was spam from
the coach.
I don't know.
What else you,
what other sort of like actual playing and game narratives are you enjoying before we get to
the kind of fan video stuff that's so much fun?
I do like the fact that there's this combination, which you're,
won in every World Cup of like some of the good teams are just playing extraordinary soccer football,
right? I mean, to watch Lionel Messi score five goals in the first two games is for Argentina.
And Boppe is playing amazing.
Yeah, Mbapé is playing like lights out. France looks great. The U.S. obviously looks like it's
knocking on the door of not maybe the first tier, but like right there, right? And so there's just
some excellent like, you know, soccer being played, football being played.
But then, yeah, these underdog stories to see Cape Verde, to see, you know, even the Iranians, like the save that that Iranian goalie made.
Did you see this, Tommy?
Yeah.
To kind of preserve a draw.
That was, like, nuts.
I saw that Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo draw Portugal, which is, you know, winning handily today in the same way that Spain went handily after.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, the African soccer teams are overperforming.
We'll see how Ghana does against England today.
And I just kind of love all of those underdog stories.
Again, in addition to the U.S., another host, Mexico, looks pretty good, too.
So it's good to see, like, the host countries in Canada got a win, which I don't think they had done before.
So that's good.
So it's, you can't, I love, if it's just the favorites overperforming, that's kind of boring.
I love this combination of, like, there's some good teams playing really well, and then there's some people coming out of nowhere.
And then there are these host countries doing well.
like it's a great mix of different storylines.
Yeah, it really is.
I mean, Corosau was another one who played Uruguay to a draw.
I also love, I just like love like the scenes of the communities watching back home.
Like the Jordanians are watching games in this like 5,000-year-old, you know, like a Roman-era theater.
It's like incredible.
I don't know if you saw the Iranians, the note they left.
They left a note in the locker room in L.A.
They said, we came to Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor and leave with dignity.
Thank you, Los Angeles for your hospitality.
And thank you to every Iranian who gave their heart.
voice and soul for Iran throughout these 180 minutes. May peace, respect, and friendship prevail
among all nations. Really nice note. Also, probably not without political risk for them when they get
home, right? You can imagine some IRGC goon being like, why did you do that? What did that mean?
Egypt got its first win. Their star player, Mosala, was just like drinking in the streets with random
people, I think up in Canada. So that was awesome. But Ben, I think what is, you know, captured all of
our hearts, especially in the Potsay of the World Slack are the videos of fans.
losing their minds.
I can watch this all day.
Literally all day.
I will retweet anything you send me.
I'm a sucker for all of it.
And then it's like the culture is blending all across North America, like you said.
Here's a little video compilation that we're going to watch.
And then I'll just quickly tick through what we saw and we can talk about it.
For today's game against the Rangers, just moments ago, they marched for a ball and chain
throughout Little Havana to take over Long Depot Park for today.
face, Matt.
All right.
So for those of you listening, not watching, first of all, subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube.
But also, we had a bunch of Norway fans rowing in Times Square.
They've been rowing everywhere.
We had a CBS report about the Tartan Army.
Those are Scotland fans.
They were taken over Miami.
They went to a Marlins game.
They marched through Little Havana.
People in Boston were, like, genuinely sad to see them go, Ben.
I don't know if you saw the open letter in the Boston Globe.
I saw everything.
The mayor was commenting on it.
Like, people were, like, sad that they were.
leaving. There was one dude who just refused to leave. He said, no, I'm going to stay here for
longer. English fans were singing Sweet Carolina at a rodeo in Texas. There's a Scottish guy
and a kilt playing the bagpipes while rollerblading in Miami. That is awesome. It was Becky fans
riding to the stadium in Houston on horseback in full garb. And then again, the Scotland
fans singing and chanting on a flight from Boston to Miami. Ben, is the World Cup the greatest
soft power tool in the history of diplomacy? Yeah, but it's a soft power tool for everybody.
everybody, right? Because every country is winning. For humanity. I mean, let me just go through,
I mean, I'm still a sucker, by the way, for the Lawrence, Kansas embrace of the Algerian team,
right? I think, Tommy, that I, my Knicks New York sports fan heart has been melted by the Boston
Tartan Army bromance. And I want to suggest that the Red Sox, like, play a baseball game in Scotland.
Oh, absolutely. We have to keep this, yeah, we have to keep this going because I'm so mad that there's
not going to be more content of like Scots like drinking with everybody in Boston and like befriending
guys with Airbnbs and I know, you know, marching around with bagpipes.
But if Bostonians go to Scotland, we're going to bitch about the Wi-Fi speeds and the plugs
being different. You know what I mean? That's my fear. Yeah. My, my old moderate Rice University,
like there was like 15,000 Dutch fans or something like that in orange like marching off the campus.
Like I said something totally bonkers like that. I got videos of like Congolese making out with
Mexicans. It's just wonderful. I can't say enough how much you just see the best in every
country in the way in which they root or the way in which they connect across cultures in the
host nations. I have nothing bad to say about anybody, which is like the way you would like
the world to be. Yeah, apparently one of the commentators on the England Ghana broadcast said,
as we know, the English historically struggle in Massachusetts.
That's a great line.
That's a great line from a clever dude.
I love every minute of this.
I want it to never end.
I'm going to watch all the games.
And maybe, you know, when we wrap this,
maybe we can catch the end of the England games.
We'll go do that.
All right, that's the end for Ben and I's portion of the show.
But do not miss Ben's interview with Ron Ayub about some really important political dynamics
happening right now in India.
So stick around for that after the break.
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You know that song that goes,
Every Rose has its thorn.
That basically describes every June.
When it comes to the Supreme Court,
summer is just starting, but the Supreme Court term is ending,
which means we're waiting for some massively consequential
and possibly devastating Supreme Court decisions
on birthright citizenship, trans athletes, and absentee ballots.
I'm Leah Lippman, and along with my co-hosts and fellow law professors, Melissa Murray and Kate Shaw,
will break down every opinion and what it means on strict scrutiny.
New episodes of strict scrutiny drop every Monday and keep an eye on your feed for emergency episodes when the big opinions come out.
Watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.
I am very pleased to be joined once again on Podse of the World.
It's been too long.
Rana Ayyub is an Indian journalist and author.
She's an opinion columnist for The Washington Post.
She's the author of the classic book, Gujarat Files, Anatomy of a cover-up.
She's on Substack.
Everybody should check her sub-stack out.
Rana, thanks so much for joining us.
Thank you so much, Ben.
We haven't talked in a bit.
I mean, the last time we talked was after the general elections in India when Narendra Modi and his BJP party won once again.
Since then, a lot of things have happened.
We've had further elections in India.
Recently, we've had this war in Iran.
And we also have the cockroach movement that has experienced.
in India. I wanted to start by asking you to tell our audience it may not be familiar with it
about that movement, how it started, what it's about and what it's becoming.
Well, Ben, a lot has happened since Modi's last general election. He won the regional election
in India. Of course, now, elections in India are no longer a level playing field, which is probably
it's, you know, Modi's government and Modi's, Modi has used central agencies to literally
co-opt almost every political opposition.
in this country.
But the Cockroo Janta Party has come in from the space of void in the sense that,
so it started with the Chief Justice of India.
He made an off-the-cuff remark in the court about the unemployed youth in India.
He compared them to cockroaches.
He said they are like cockroaches festering everywhere,
and they are filing, they're becoming activists,
they're filing applications in court,
they're wasting the time of the court.
So there is already a resentment in this country by a shrewd,
huge section of people who are dealing with poverty and unemployment. Instead of taking that as a
slur, they turned it into a satire. It started as an Instagram page saying, we the cockroaches,
the cockroach gendat. And it said that we are a bunch of lazy people and are, you know,
it was more like a satire. Like, you know, we are the cockroaches. Everybody was, but what was
shocking is, and probably it was, you know, it reflected about, it, it was a reflection. It was a reflection
about the disenchantment the Indian youth is facing right now with the government,
that within about seven days, there were 22 million followers on Instagram, right,
much more than Narendra Modi or the ruling party of India or the opposition party of
India. It was organic. None of these people came from a political, you know, backroom
or an organized political party. It was, it started off as an internet movement. It was very,
very organic. And before we knew it was the talk of the town, these people suddenly had an agenda,
a five-point agenda about clearing up the education system, clearing up corruption in India,
clearing up, you know, the hierarchy in India. And Modi, I mean, Modi does not love activism,
as it's a bad word for him. You know, every time there's a student's movement, he always
calls it a Sorosback movement. And they were quick to jump on this. They immediately banned the
Twitter account, the Instagram account, citing.
national security saying that the Cockrood Janta Party was fronted by elements from across the border.
In fact, BJP leaders, Modi's BJP, their leaders said that a lot of their followers are from Pakistan.
So the Cockrood Janta Party also showed its list of followers, which are all Indian.
So I feel the Cockrood Janta Party and the meme of the cockroach has resonated quite a bit with the average Indian,
which has been feeling led down and unseen.
And with this movement, it is trying to be seen by India
and by the elite in India, by the political powers.
And I think it has made a splash in the Indian political movement
and rightly so the Indian, the BJP is worried about it and its existence.
Yeah, I mean, obviously India is a massively different scale,
but, you know, we've been following over the last couple of years,
these movements in Nepal and Bangladesh that have rocked and toppled governments, actually,
and I don't think that's necessarily going to happen in India.
But that's right in the neighborhood.
And I'm curious how you think about what is similar between this movement and the movements
we've seen in South Asia.
And obviously what is different in the sense that, you know, this is probably not going
to result in the kind of overturning of governance like we saw in those countries.
but where do you think it might lead going forward?
So when the Cockwood Jantah Party gained popularity on social media
and everybody thought this was our Gen Z protests
that changed government in Nepal
and in Bangladesh and in Sri Lanka,
everybody thought this was our moment where the Gen Z takes over.
And many of the followers do believe that it is their moment at the Sun.
The Gen Z is trying to assert itself.
But when the leaders of the Cockwell-Juant Party
were posed this question, they said, and they said they were far too mature to indulge in any
arson or any activity that aims to kind of disturb the atmosphere of peace in the country.
So they were trying to be very, very careful to not position themselves at as, and compared
themselves to the outfits in Pakistan and other countries in South Asia because they knew
that, I mean, they knew that any such statement.
would be used by the government of India to quell the protest and to silence them.
Because I think the moment when something like this happened in Pakistan and Sri Lanka and Nepal,
I think the first thing that the Indian establishment said that you'd not allow something like this to happen in India.
Because activism in India has become a bad word.
So I think the Kokor Janta Party has been playing it very, very, it's been walking a delicate tri-tropes trying hard to not compare itself with the most.
movement in South Asia. And the second thing is, I think right now this movement is largely on social
media when they, right now they're protesting on the streets, but the numbers, I mean, of course,
it's the Indian summer, peak Indian summer, but still the numbers are not quite surging as much
as one expected it to see. It has made a splash, but it does not have the same intensity of the
protest in South Asia. Having said that, it's just a beginning, right? It is, it is not a political
movement. It does not have the finances to sustain something like this. It is right now
battling a government and also battling for its own survival right now because the government
is trying to ban its very existence. So right now I think it's a very slow process where
the popularity has come down to an extent where people are like, what exactly will they achieve?
It has shown promise, but people are being very, very careful because
Cockro Janta Party has not taken an ideological position yet.
So a lot of the critics, especially in the left liberal circles,
are expecting it to take a position of the majoritarianism of the Modi government,
as opposed to the Kokra Jenta Party saying,
we are going to restrict ourselves with just education and unemployment.
So I think there is a certain opposition to the CJP, as it's called.
But I think it will reveal itself in months and until the next general election.
Yeah, I want to come back to the opposition,
but I want to talk about Narendra Modi in his foreign policy and how it's playing at home.
And there are two leaders I'm going to ask you about. Let's start with Trump.
So, you know, Modi really embraced Trump in his first term and kind of endorsed him when he ran for re-election,
was clearly selling that these are like-minded kind of nationalist, strong man types.
Just watching from afar, a lot of things Donald Trump's done have hurt India since he's
since he came back into power. You know, we saw terrorists put on India. We saw Trump embrace Pakistan,
basically siding almost with Pakistan when there was the conflict, bragging about ending the war
and demanding the Modi nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. We saw the war in Iran, obviously,
part of Trump's, you know, signature foreign policy effort has had a really crippling effect on India
and given the amount of, you know, energy that it gets through the straight-of-hormuz.
Is there any political blowback that Modi's face?
He put all these chips on Trump, and it feels like the second Trump term has been not only
not good for Modi, but kind of embarrassing at times for Modi.
How do people in India look at that?
It is extremely embarrassing because the same Modi fanboys who were, like, worshipping Trump
and creating these statues of Trump are suddenly now abusing him in India.
And they don't know how to reconcile this too, that Modi put Trump on a pedestal.
He was his best friend.
He campaigned for Trump in the U.S. and did a huge rally for Trump in India.
And now Trump is somehow, you know, he has this bipolar relationship with Modi.
And some days he's going to comment on Modi's complexion and his personality.
And odd days he's going to call India a country of, you know, using racist slurs against India.
I think where India is.
concerned, I think it has revealed India's absolutely bizarre foreign policy because we do not seem
to have a foreign policy. And I think Trump has really exposed the rot within. When the, when the
US and Israel waged a war on Iran, Prime Mr. Modi was in Israel. He was, he was on a three-day trip
with Bibi Netanyahu, and they were both posing for pictures and they were doing these
augs. And whether Netanyahu told him about the war, the impending war, or did not, in both
the situations, Modi looked, I mean, it was a, he lost face because you are visiting Israel and
suddenly the next day Israel bombs Iran. And then India, which has been a longstanding ally of
Iran, does not say a single statement condemning the murder of Ayatila Khomeini. And, and then, of
when the U.S. torpedoed the ship Iris Dana, there was not a single statement from the Indian
Prime Minister or even at the killing of the three naval officers by, by.
And I should just add for people, this is a ship that had been in India, invited by the Indian government
for, you know, kind of a, the invitation of many different countries for kind of military
demonstrations and it gets sunk and all the people on board get killed, you know, which was a
huge embarrassment, didn't you? But anyway, I just wanted to let people know that. And you know,
India's foreign minister, Jashankar, or India's prime minister, I mean, that ship was India's guest,
and there's left India and there's killed Indians and Pakistanis and Sri Lankans. And you cannot
bring yourself to condemn that action. You cannot bring yourself to condemn the action in which
US attacks an Indian naval ship, which kills three Indians. And, you know, in this meeting recently
at the G7, when Modi and Trump were sitting, and Trump is congratulating,
Modi personally and said he's only going to have good relationship with India as long as
Modi is the Prime Minister. And it felt like it was Modi's own image control as opposed to
being, as opposed to negotiating with Trump as a country, it felt like it was more image building
for Modi. So Modi's foreign policy is mostly optics. Trump has berated India saying that he was
the one who got a ceasefire between India and Pakistan through the war.
last year. And not once, Indian foreign office has said off the record that Trump did not
broker this deal, but Trump keeps on repeating this in every single press conference, asking
for a Nobel Peace Prize. But till today, Modi has not said a word about this. Modi has not
issued a statement. So I feel like, and then, you know, then you see him posing for a picture
with Georgia Maloney with a chocolate calling it chocolate diplomacy. I mean, I'm no fan of Georgia
Maloney. But when Trump said something about her begging for a selfie, at least you put out
a statement saying, you know what, neither does she nor Italy beg for a selfie. Where is India's
self-respect? Right? So I feel like Indians are feeling the pinch. A big section of the Indian
community and foreign policy officials are also feeling that if you do not stand for anything,
right? If you are the democratic counterweight to China, if you believe you are the world's largest
democracy, you need to stand for something. And if you do not stand for anything, then you will
lose all the respect that you believe the world should accord to you. Modi calls himself the
Vishwaguru, the global leader. But where is this condemnation of what's happening in Iran?
What's happening in Palestine? There's not been a single strong statement. And then you have
Asim Munir, the field marshal of Pakistan.
and the Pakistani Prime Minister, now, you know, which were always, you know, India always said that
it had isolated Pakistan, you know, in the world. I don't think this looks like isolation at all.
In fact, it feels like he has given Pakistan a new lease of life. Trump has given Pakistan a new
lease of life, but it has given it a newfound legitimacy. So I feel like India stands as a big
loser where foreign policy is concerned. Yeah, I've never seen actually Pakistan given the spotlight
that Trump has put on it in this war.
You already anticipated the second thing I was going to ask you about was that trip to Israel
with Prime Minister Nanyahu and this kind of full embrace of Israel before the war.
But I do want to ask one more question about the war, which is I do want you to just describe.
We've talked a bit about the shortages in India.
You know, it's running low on fuel.
We've seen reports about Indians having to ration cooking oil, about businesses and restaurants
having to shut down prices going up.
What is the effect?
Do ordinary Indians feel the pinch of this war, or is this just something that shows up more in kind of economic metrics?
I think there has been a huge economic repercussion.
Prime Minister Modi has asked Indians to stop buying gold, stop traveling abroad, start working from home, stop flying,
stopped using air transport, you know, carpool, stop using their public transport.
So I feel like we are feeling the pinch.
The price of domestic fuel has increased.
The price of petrol, CNG diesel has increased in India.
And those who are feeling the pinch are the ones who are economically in the lower strata.
So I feel like there is a great deal of resentment thanks to the war,
which is why Modi's popularity, it's a 12th year in power.
And I feel like for this very reason, Modi's popularity is not the same as it was, say, last year.
So the war on Iran has had repercussions and which is why Modi is trying to do a lot of this internal stuff,
like stirring up anti-Muslim, you know,
sentiments in the country to kind of divert the attention from the real problem, which is a fuel
crisis in India. Right now, small restaurants are shutting down. You know, small business owners
are shutting down their business because they cannot afford it. People are not taking the flights.
The airline businesses says that one of the biggest airlines in India has said that it plans to
shut, it will shut down if the Modi government does not take enough steps. So I feel like we have
had real repercussions of the war and instead of giving us a solution or trying to kind of
play a role in allying the fears of this of the country what you see is Modi going on these
foreign trips and you know and and and taking selfies with international leaders and I think
that has angered a big section of the people which is why something like a cockrojunt
party which has happened at just the right moment has has become has become has become
has got the popularity that it did because it's not happening in a void.
It is happening at a time when there is rising unemployment,
when the war on Iran has led to consequences in India,
where people are losing their jobs,
where poverty levels are increasing every day,
where people in India cannot get by.
So I feel like the outfits like the Kaukujanta Party
at a result of this, for a big reason, the war on Iran,
and the crisis that is happening in the street.
of our moves. So, Rana, it's so helpful in helping us understand what's going on in the
cockroach movement and Indian foreign policy of Modi standing. Just to end here, what should
be we be looking for in terms of where the political opposition goes in the months ahead?
How should we be thinking about things? Because obviously, Modi's still very entrenched in power.
What are the signs that this might lead to actual more strong opposition or maybe Modi can
recover as he has done multiple times? Well, at this point of time, Ben,
Indian opposition is exactly the same where it was a couple of months ago because we have had
recent local elections for which Trump also congratulated Modi, in which Modi had a sweeping victory.
But that election happened in an atmosphere where it was not a level playing field.
Modi has posed all the opposition leaders on his side where he has used central agencies
to kind of level charges and level cases and get them on their side.
The election system has not been the same.
a lot of voters have been disenfranchised in India.
So yes, a cockroach genta party can make a difference,
but when you have a country of 1.4 billion people
and you still have big players like the Congress Party and other regional parties
who are being systematically decimated using central agencies
and using the Election Commission of India, which seems to be compromised,
I think Modi can even look for a third term in power
because things are very much skewed in favor of Modi right now,
but one can have some, I would really wait and watch what the Cockwood Janta Party is capable of
because the resentment of the ground also is real. Modi can win over there and kind of snatched away
the powers of the opposition party, but he will really have to deal with the resentment on the ground.
So one has to wait and watch what happens with the Cockwood Janda Party right now.
No, that's a great point. I mean, you know, he can tighten his grip.
But actually that might make the bottom up opposition, you know, that much more intense,
as we've seen in neighboring countries.
I will a lot, Rana, thanks so much for joining us.
Everybody should follow you, everybody.
I do on social media, on Substack, on your Washington Post.
You're such a clear voice on all these issues.
So thanks for helping us understand what's been going on.
Thank you so much, Ben.
Pleasure, so always.
Thanks to Rana Ayu for doing the show.
Thanks to you, Ben, for dialing in from what's pretty late over there in London,
and see you in person next week.
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