Pod Save the World - The rise of the European far-right

Episode Date: September 27, 2017

Tommy talks with Europe expert Dr. Karen Donfried about the German elections and the rise of the far-right AfD party. They also discuss why Russian hacking efforts didn’t work in Germany, what European capitals will do if Trump pulls out of the Iran deal, and how they view his war of words with North Korea.

My guest today on Pod Save the World is Europe expert Karen Dunfried. The German elections were this past week, and while a lot of the world was breathing a sigh of relief after Angela Merkel was re-elected for a fourth term, it was tempered by the rise of a far-right anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant party. So we talked about the results, what it means for Merkel's ability to govern, what it means for Germany's relations with NATO and the U.S. We also talked about the rise of right-wing parties across Europe and what Europe would do if President Trump pulls out of the Iran deal and what they make of Trump's war of Iran deal. and what they make of Trump's War of Awards with North Korea and last where Turkey is at the moment on the frenemy scale. If you like the show, please rate us in iTunes and tell your friends. Check out the Pod Save the World Facebook page for bonus materials and follow me on Twitter at TVitor 08. And now here's the interview with Karen.

I am very excited to welcome back to Pod Save the World, Dr. Karen Donfried. She is the president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Before assuming this role in April of 2014, Karen was the... special assistant to the president and senior director for European Affairs, the National Security Council at the White House. She's also served on the National Intelligence Council and on the U.S. Department of States policy planning staff. Karen, thank you so much for doing the show. Tommy's a pleasure to be back. All right. So last time you were on, we were talking about elections in France. Today, it's Germany. Germany just had their elections. The good news is that

Anglo Merkel was re-elected. The bad news is that for the first time since the defeat of the Nazis in 1945, a far-right party will have delegates in the German parliament. The nationalist alternative for Germany party, or AFD, is now the third largest party in the Bundestag, with 94 seats. They secured 13% of the vote up from 7.9% last time. Karen, can you tell us, what is the AFD? How worried should we be about their growing influence in Germany of all places? So, Tommy, I think most of us in the U.S. focus on the headline, Angela Merkel was reelected and think, that's all I need to know. We know her. She's stable in the sea of tumult around the world. But what you're pointing to is that beneath that headline, there is a dramatically shifting political landscape in Germany. The most striking part of it is the one you focused on, which is the AFD, this far-right populist party, that not only made it into the German parliament. So after World War II, Germany put in place a 5% threshold. to try to prevent small parties from being represented and splintering the political system.

And actually, four years ago was the first time the AFD tried to get into Parliament and they missed that 5% threshold. So what we saw on Sunday was that the AFD not only got into the parliament, but as you pointed out, they're the third strongest political party in the German parliament. and had the Social Democrats who have been in coalition with Uncle and Merkel not announced that they are not willing to continue the Grand Coalition with her, then the AFD would have been the leading opposition party. So it is quite dramatic to see this party that did not exist prior to 2013 suddenly be the third largest political force. What do you think it means for Merkel and her ability to govern? So on that, I still would give Angela Merkel very high marks for her political skills. The challenge for her in the first instance is going to be forming a new governing coalition. There is no possibility that the AFD will be part of a governing coalition.

So she's trying to keep her sister party, the more conservative CSU, with her, in negotiating with the free Democrats, that's the business-friendly party. And the Greens, the environmental party, she's trying to form a coalition with those parties. So the AFD will do its best to make Angela Merkel's life miserable. It started right after the election when the leaders of the AFD said, one of the things we're going to do when we get into Parliament is start a parliamentary investigative committee to investigate what Angela Merkel did on the refugee crisis. They will be noisy, they will be obstreperous, but she will, I think, try to push them aside in terms of her ability to govern Germany. You mentioned the refugee crisis. There was a report in the New York Times today. A reporter named Amanda Taub wrote a piece where she talked about interviewing a whole bunch of AFT supporters and asking them why they support the party.

And she said that almost everyone she spoke with said they support AFD because Germany is under threat from Muslim immigrants and outsiders and only the AFD is willing to protect it. Do you think this sentiment is a direct reaction to Merkel's early decision to welcome Syrian refugees? or is this a broader nationalist sentiment that we're seeing in a lot of places? Well, in the U.S., we often think that the key in our elections is, it's the economy stupid. Well, for the German election in 2017, I think you could say it's refugees stupid. There's no question in my mind that refugees were the most salient issue in this German election. And it goes back to the decision that Chancellor Merkel made in the fall of 2015, when she decided to open Germany's borders to the increasing build-up. of refugees to its east. That was deeply controversial. She to this day continues to say she thinks

she made the right decision. But she also, in the press conference she had yesterday, when asked by a reporter about this period of history, said that there was no question in her mind that that decision was a polarizing decision and that she personally had to answer for the decision she made back in 2015 and that the implications of that decision were very clear in this election. So the refugee crisis remains an emotive issue in Germany. I also saw an exit poll where, gosh, it was 95% of AFD voters said that the loss of German culture was a key issue in their vote. So this sense that those Germans have that their identity is being diminished by refugees and migrants and globalization, that sentiment is deeply held among those AFD voters. And we see it across Europe and also in the U.S.

I see AFD described as nationalist. I see them described as anti-immigrant, anti-refugee. How concerned are you about this party? I mean, how right wing are they? So let's just do a brief history on the AFD. They first came onto the radar screen in opposition to the euro and in opposition to Anglomerical's decision to bail out Greece. So originally they started in 2013 as an anti-Euro party.

Then four years ago, they almost got into parliament but didn't cross that 5% threshold. And they seemed to be losing support. But they got a new lease on life with Angela Merkel's decision on the refugee crisis to open Germany's borders. And in 2015, Germany admitted 890,000 refugees. Last year it was 280,000. So you saw how dramatically that number came down. But they used that refugee issue to mobilize, well, 13% of the German electorate, as we saw on Sunday. They have said deeply offensive things. things if you don't share their views. Let me just give you a sense, Tommy, of some of their campaign posters. So one of them, what it says is Burka's question mark, we prefer bikinis. And you see three bikini-clad women from the back. Then there's another one that says new Germans question mark. And of course that New Germans is referring. to refugees and migrants that have come in. So new Germans question mark, and then it says,

we want to produce our own. And you see a woman laying down with her pregnant belly sticking up. Then there's another one, Islam question mark. It doesn't fit into our kitchen. And there's a piglet on it. So those are the tactics they've been using in terms of their campaign posters. And then you've had leading figures in the AFD. say things like, we should be proud of what German soldiers did in the two world wars. They've also said that Germany has spent too much effort in remembering the Holocaust. So, yes, I think it is fair to call them an extreme right party. So they are awful, that's what you're saying. They are horrible, misogynistic assholes, is my takeaway from this.

The striking thing in the case of Germany is we've seen far right populist parties do well across Europe. We almost saw Marine Le Pen be elected president of France earlier this year. So it's not that we don't see people who hold these views across the European political landscape, but because of Germany's past, because of the Nazi past, World War II, there has been a very high threshold among German voters in bringing a far-right party back into parliament. And the fact that that taboo has now been broken is a watershed moment for Germany. I'm glad you raised sort of the French elections because I think after Trump was elected, there was a concern about these far right parties sweeping across Europe.

You had UKIP. You had Marine Le Pen running in France. I think those fears are somewhat allayed after she lost badly in those elections, but it's still frightening that her party had any support. As you noted earlier, Angela Merkel winning is a good headline, but the AFD's rise is a frightening second headline. In both places, what was almost more remarkable was the collapse of the mainstream parties. What do you think this says about the future of these political systems? Are we going to continue to see parties arise from the ashes here?

Tommy, I think this is a critical point because it's easy when we think about a shifting political landscape to focus only on the AFD. But you're absolutely right to point to the fact that the parties that have governed Germany since the end of World War II. On the left, the Social Democrats, on the center right, the Christian Democratic Union, Merkel's Party and its sister party, the CSU, they did worse in this election than they have ever done since 1949. So at a time when the German economy is doing well, there's growth in Germany, there's low unemployment and at a time when there was high voter turnout. So in this election, about 75% of the

German electorate turned out that was higher than the past two elections, which were about 70%. And I mentioned that because usually when there's high turnout, you see that the extreme parties do less well. So good economy, high voter turnout, you still saw those parties of the center do very badly. So there is something dramatic going on in Germany. We saw it in France. We saw Macon basically win with the major established parties not even being able to rally a fight. So the landscape and what that means going forward is critical. And this is why the social Democrats, that center left party that had been in coalition with Merkel said, we are not going to in coalition with you again because we see this vote in Germany as a vote against a grand

coalition government. And we, the social democrats, need to go into the opposition and define ourselves anew. Define ourselves as a social democratic party that's really speaking to the challenges Germans perceive that they're facing in the 21st century. So you mentioned Merkel needs a form a new coalition. Obviously, we've talked about how AFD is now in the mix, but will likely not be in any way allied with her. Does this mean anything for Germany's relations with NATO or the U.S.? Is there a risk that this is going to pull the country to the right and make Germany a less reliable ally? So there's no question that Angela Merkel has been weakened by this election.

So that will affect the weight she carries. That said, Germany is the most populous, the wealthiest country in Europe. So Germany matters. And the role that Germany will play both in the European Union and in NATO, that is not going to change. And we saw Emmanuel Macron, the French president, give a major speech today about his vision of the European Union. And he did that very consciously two days after the German election because he wants to reinvigorate the so-called Franco-German couple that traditionally has been at the heart of the EU moving forward. In the NATO context, Germany, for the past few years, there's been a conversation in Germany about the need for Germans to play a larger foreign and security policy role. We're certainly seeing it in the NATO context.

We have German troops now deployed in the Baltics as part of NATO's European Reassurance Initiative. And we see a very active debate in Germany about spending more on defense in issue that President Trump has hit very hardly. And that brings us to the relationship between the U.S. and Germany. As I just mentioned, one of the issues that President Trump has been very clear on is that Germany is that Germany is not. doing enough on the defense front. Germany today spends 1.2% of its GDP on defense. The NATO alliance decided at its 2014 summit that all NATO members needed to achieve a goal of 2% of GDP spending on defense. Germany has said, we'll meet that goal in 2024, and Donald Trump would like to see them meet that goal much more quickly. The other issue he has been very adamant about,

has been what he calls Germany's massive trade surplus. I am convinced President Trump is going to continue to hit those two issues very hard going forward. I don't think he'll have any more success in moving Germany on them. And in fact, I think with the social Democrats now moving into the opposition, you're going to see the social Democrats instrumentalizing President Trump. much more in their opposition to certain policies like increased German defense spending. If you look at public opinion surveys, Donald Trump is not popular in Germany.

And the fact that you had the two major parties in coalition muted criticism of the U.S. administration. And I think that is going to change with this new German government because of the role of the opposition parties. Another issue Trump obsesses about is the Iran deal. He's repeatedly said he wants to pull out of the Iran deal, but the Iran deal isn't just an agreement between the U.S. and Iran. It includes the U.K., Germany, France, among others. What do Europeans make of Trump's threats? And do you think, what do you think European leaders would do if he follows through with his threats? Is there a chance they'll work with us to continue to tougher sanctions, or will they keep doing what they were doing in normalized relations with Iran? and honor the deal. So there have been several things, several decisions President Trump has made already in his first year that have been disconcerting to our European allies. An obvious one is the decision that President Trump made to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. Now, at the end of the day, that was a non-binding agreement. Europeans are working also with subnational actors in the U.S. governors and mayors who have pledged adherence to the commitments made in Paris.

The Iran deal, I think, is in a separate category. If President Trump decides next month not to recertify Iran, then that issue goes to the U.S. Congress. And the U.S. Congress will decide whether they're going to apply additional sanctions on Iran and whether those sanctions have extraterritorial reach. This is something that will have a highly significant impact in Europe. As you pointed out, this is not a bilateral deal between the U.S. and Iran. It's a P5 plus one. So it's the permanent five members of the UN Security Council together with Germany that negotiated this deal with Iran. Every European country believes that it is in their interest and in the interest of world peace that this agreement continue. You hear European policymakers say, my goodness, we're on the threshold of a very serious nuclear crisis with North Korea. Do we really want to reopen the Iran deal now? So they will not go along with that decision. They will say that they are going to stay committed to that nuclear deal together with Russia and China.

And they will retaliate, I believe, if the U.S. Congress were to put in place sanctions with an extraterritorial reach. The Europeans have been quite outspoken about this, both last week during the UN General Assembly meetings and also this. week because I think they're quite concerned that President Trump already has made a decision to not certify Iran that he will then make public next month. You mentioned North Korea. You know, Trump is escalating his war of words with Kim Jong-gun daily or even hourly. I know that Angela Merkel has previously suggested calling for a new round of negotiations with North Korea and including Germany in those talks.

That is an interesting, new, more assertive role for Europe. in talks with North Korea that usually include China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, and the U.S. Do you think we're going to see more European countries trying to fill that diplomatic void left by the Trump administration? And what do you think the sense is in European capitals about Trump's approach to North Korea? So I will say it caught my eye when Chancellor Merkel suggested that she was open to being helpful if she could be helpful in terms of encouraging a diplomatic solution in North Korea. Because you're absolutely right that that is a new role for Germany to suggest that it might have a role to play in an Asian security crisis of that nature. And I think there are two reasons for it. One is I think it's part of this

longer term trend that we've seen of Germany playing a larger role on foreign security policy. Exhibit A there, I would say, is the role Germany's played on the Ukraine crisis. I'd be to go into more detail on that. But I think, so part of it is just Germany playing that larger role. A, and B, the second thing is, I think Germany was unnerved by the bellicosity of the language that President Trump was using and was quite concerned that this could spiral into a very dangerous crisis that also carried implications for Europe. And so she was trying to weigh in on the side of let's try to create more space for a diplomatic negotiation. There was a lot of concern going into this election, going into the French elections,

that the Russians would be able to interfere again, to hack the various parties, to somehow change the outcome. It doesn't appear that that's happened. Why do you think that they've been able to prevent Russian interference where we failed completely? So I'm going to do a shameless plug here for colleagues of mine at GMF, Laura Rosenberger and Jamie Fly, who've started something called the Alliance for Securing Democracy, which is looking at exactly this issue of Russian interference in our elections. Of course, the U.S. election is a big focus of that work.

But they have also spent considerable time looking at Russian attempts to try to influence this German election. And the conclusion is that we were underwhelmed by what the Russians did in the run-up to Sunday's election. And there are speculation about what the reasons for that are. I think one is because of all the attention that Russian interference in the U.S. election got, the Germans have been much more vigilant and have been more proactive in looking out for that kind of Russian interference and then reacting immediately. I think that's one reason. I think a second factor is that the Russians, the Germans are aware that the Russians, were able to steal a good amount of records from the German parliaments, all sorts of emails.

And so there's speculation that they were going to drop some of that email cash in the run-up to the election. And so all of the parties in Germany agreed, there were sort of a gentleman's agreement, that if the Russians did that, they were not going to use any of that material to help their campaigns. So did that have a chilling effect on Russia actually deploying that information? So there are various, there's speculation about why we didn't see as active a Russian role, but there is no question that the Russians, to the extent they did intervene, were doing it to try to sow cultural upset and play on social divisions that were already there in Germany and trying to exacerbate them. to harm Angela Merkel and to make greater hay out of the issue around refugees and migration. That is interesting. I hope we can learn some of these lessons and actually be a little more united in advance of potential Russian hacking because God help us, we are not technically ready for 2018.

It has been interesting for me to step back and watch various European leaders deal with Trump. You had Macron sort of talk tough, called him out on issues. You know, there was the famous handshake where he gripped really hard. and stared him down and, you know, talk about bullying. Mirkel has been seemingly a little more wary of Trump. What do you think of the approach from European leaders to President Trump? Is he viewed as a threat or someone they're worried about or is, do you think he could become a useful foil if, as you noted, his approval continues to dip in countries like Germany? So it is interesting, the different approaches that various European leaders have taken to him. And I think you see some, who are saying, look, this is just not someone we can work with. And there are issues like climate

that are critically important to us and we just need to forge our own paths. Then there are other leaders and other issues where the dependence that Europe has on the U.S. is so significant that Europeans feel they don't have the luxury of disassociating themselves. You certainly see this in a context of central and east European countries that feel threatened by an aggressive Russia on their eastern borders, and they want to see a continued significant U.S. role in their neighborhood. And then I think you have another group of leaders who are saying, look, we're going to exercise strategic patience here. We're transatlanticists. The relationship to the U.S. is critically important to us, and we appreciate that U.S. administrations are four years long, and we're just going to hold off on big projects until, you know, the next chapter in the U.S. political story.

It was fascinating to see how he's successfully engaged President Trump. His invitation to President Trump to join him for Bastille Day and celebrating the 100th anniversary of the U.S. entry into World War I was a very successful example of outreach. And we saw last week that President Macron was trying to influence President Trump also on the Iran deal and what position he might ultimately articulate on that. We'll see if he's successful with that, not clear. Angola Merkel in her meeting in the Oval Office, I heard from folks around her that she prepared more for that meeting than she has for any other because she felt it was such a critical meeting for Germany. And once she has built her coalition, I am sure that coalition will give thought to are there concrete projects that we can work on with. with the United States, where we can say here issues we both care about, and we together, Germans and Americans can make a difference because she wants to maintain a strong relationship

with Washington. But it's very difficult when the president has openly criticized her in quite harsh terms in some cases. So I think we'll see how they're able to maybe have a fresh start on the relationship with a new government and try to... define areas for renewed cooperation. My last question for you is about Turkey. The last time we talked, you know, we sort of talked about how President Erdogan was increasingly authoritarian.

I've also noticed that he has, despite being a member of NATO, turned to Russia to purchase major weapons systems, which I think raised a lot of eyebrows in military circles, and those sort of watching Turkey to see where they are. Today, he's threatening the Kurds in Iraq over their referendum. saying it could lead to an ethnic war. What is your sense of where Turkey is in terms of being a Western ally or a country we are concerned with? So I'm usually the half-glassful kind of person. And I think Angela Merkel is extremely pragmatic in most of her relationships.

The relationship with Turkey is really tough for all of the reasons you articulated and more. With the failed coup in Turkey, we saw President Erdogan arrest lots of Turks and put them in jail. Some of the folks that he put in jail in Turkey happened to have German citizenship. That's been a very sensitive issue in the case of German-Turkish relations. On the other hand, we saw Angela Merkel in her response to managing the refugee crisis, negotiate a deal. deal with Erdogan so that Erdogan would close the Turkish border and thereby stop the flow of refugees coming from Syria because of the civil war into Europe. So it's this weird dichotomy where you have a very troubled German-Turkish relationship, yet you had a deal, an EU-Turkey deal around refugees

that is continuing to hold. Now, on the bad side of the relationship, it was really striking in the immediate run-up to the German election to have Turkish President Erdogan say to Turkish German voters do not vote for the CDU, for Angela Merkel's party, for the Social Democrats, or for the Greens, because they are enemies of Turkey. This is very strong language about established democratic parties in Germany from a NATO ally. Now, in the immediate wake of the German election, there was language coming out of Ankara saying, we need to reset the relationship and we need a fresh start here.

But you referenced the referendum that took place in the Kurdish region of Iraq for an individual. dependent Kurdistan, depending on how that moves forward, that is not something the Turks will accept. And, you know, talking to folks who watch Turkey much more closely than I do, they have said to me that there's a real possibility you could see a Turkish military incursion. So if something like that were to happen, then the fraught German-Turkish relationship, I think only gets worse. One last point here, which is if Angela Merkel succeeds in building this so-called Jamaica Coalition. And it's Jamaica Coalition because all the parties in Germany have colors. And so her party is black. And then the free Democrats are yellow and the greens are

green. So the colors of the Jamaican flag. If that Jamaica Coalition happens, one of the leading figures in the Green Party, Chem Osteemia, is a German of Turkish background. And it's possible that he could become German foreign minister in that new coalition. So that would make it even more interesting. Interesting indeed. Karen, thank you so much for doing the show. It was much more fun talking to you this time from our studio here at Crooked Media HQ than the last time when I was in John Levitt's house with a guy using a leaf blower next door. But both times were fascinating. So thank you again. And I really appreciate it. Oh, the pleasure was mine, Tommy. Thanks so much. Bye-bye. All right. Have a great day. You too. Thanks again to Karen Donfried for joining me today. Remember, if you like us, please write the show on iTunes, check out the PotsAid World Facebook page for bonus materials and follow me on Twitter at at T.Vitor 08. Thanks for listening, guys.