Power Lunch - Dow falls as trade tariff turmoil stretches to third day 4/7/25

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

It’s been a wild session on Wall Street, as traders try to speculate when the market could bottom from President Trump’s tariff turmoil. The Dow is posting its largest intraday point swing ever recorded. We’ll cover all of the market angles for you. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to Power Lunch on one of the wildest market days that we have ever seen. I am Brian Sullivan. Kelly is off today. She'll be back tomorrow. And right now, the markets are mostly higher. The NASDAQ composite is up 1.2%. The S&B up 0.7%. The Dow is still down, but one-tenth of 1%. Now, if you are, I don't know, waking up in Guam, okay? And you're like, oh, things are pretty calm. Look at that. The Dow just turned positive. This move, folks, does not begin to tell the story. Okay, here's what happened. The market plummeted at the open. Right after the open, the Dow Jones Industrial average was down 1,700 points, about 5%. A half an hour later, the Dow was up 900 points. That is a 2,600 point, or about 8% percent. Turnaround. Now, the driver was some misread commentary or a tweet, which the market misinterpreted,

having something that Kevin Hassett said to do with a 90-day pause, potentially on tariffs from the president. That headline alone, which was erroneous, sent markets soaring. Amon Javers did some, you know, reporting. And he actually called the White House, which then unequivocally shot down that story, calling it, as only they can, fake news, their term. Stocks then, as he reported that headline, sold back off only then in the last hour to come back. It has been a week of trading in really about four and a half hours. That's been your market date today, but we are higher. Some of the individual names, companies that do a lot of business with China that could get hit by tariffs, they're still getting hit, leading the pack,

the biggest company in the world. Apple, down three and a half percent. The iPhones, of course, all made in China. What will tariffs mean to them? Nike, they sell a lot of shoes and gear in China. Tesla, down 2 percent as well. Communication services, though, really the intranet. They need to rechange the name of this sector. What is this? A piece of string and a can. Anyway, communication services, the best S&B 500 sector today, meta, Netflix, and Google's Alphabet. They're all in communications. They're all higher right now. Those companies are indeed up.

So those are the names that really move the market. We're also seeing a bounce back in some of the names that have been hit hardest up until today on the tariff news. Names like Furniture Maker, R.H. They're up 15% right now. Yeah, they're still down huge from where they were. You had the CEO on with Jim last week. That stock rebounding a bit. Dollar tree up eight and a half.

Company called five below. They sell stuff. Not all that's below five bucks. You get the point up six percent as well. And in the international markets, let's quickly go through there. China, Singapore, the UK, all by the way with big losses today. But tomorrow is a new day. So let's talk about everything that we just heard and bring in your market panel.

Nancy Tangler is the CIO and CEO of Laffer Tangler Investments. Peter Malook, the president and CIO of Creative Planning, Bob Bassani also joining us from the New York Stock Exchange. And Bob, I'm going to start with you, and I'm not going to age you, my man, because you are ageless and you are peerless, by the way. But I will ask you this. In the time that you have been doing this, how have the last two and a half days stacked up historically

and how do we read them? What do they mean? There's two times where I've seen this. kind of volatility in March 2000 during the dot-com implosion. And then in certain periods in 2008, late 2009, early 2009, when the markets couldn't figure out the direction on whether we were not we were bottoming and what came to be called the great financial crisis. No, this is pretty unprecedented other than that. And I've been here 35 years, Brian. Right now, the market is checking all the boxes indicating that it wants to bounce, that it's oversold. So tech's flat as you saw that,

but generally outperforming except for Apple. The volumes are huge. Yields are up. The dollar is up. These are good signs. These are signs the market wants the bottom. And the hope here is that President Trump wants to negotiate somehow. We don't know how.

But Europe seems to be trying to send some signals that it might want to do something. China is the odd man out. You saw, Ryan, you showed Apple there down 3%, not bouncing at all. So that's a major problem. So at this point, I'd have to say the marketing. is working on the hopes of an openness to negotiate and the likelihood of the worst case scenario with all of these coming in at the same time is a little bit lower, although, of course, we're going to have to take that one day at a time, Brian. Nancy, we saw an 8% swing,

before this swing, by the way, from this morning to this afternoon, not even including what's happening now, 8% swing because of an erroneous headline that suggested the tariffs maybe paused for three months. How hard does that type of move make your job? Softball to open up the show? It's hard. We don't trade on a daily basis necessarily, but... You mark the market probably.

You're watching it go up and down every day. That's right. And remember, the pushback we're hearing from the administration's proxies is that, oh, this is Wall Street having a temper tantrum. My clients are not Wall Street bigwigs. They are individuals who are focused. It built their, you know, this is some, they've worked their whole career. This is the savings.

100%. So I think this was the most reckless policy rollout I've ever seen. It isn't the art of the deal. I get it. He likes to scare the people he's negotiating with. But that chart that he held up, the futures were actually flat during the press conference, you know, Liberation Day. They were flat until he held up that chart with those ridiculous interpolated tariff numbers.

And that's when the market. really got concerned. And I think having Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnik, I'm sorry to say, as spokespeople, has not helped bring clarity. Is that nice enough? Yes. Yeah. That's fair. I mean, there were islands on that tariff chart that have more sheep than humans. I'm not going to, Peter Malook, I'm not going to defend the tariffs. I'm not going to defend Trump. Okay, let's forget about the politics. Forget about the people in charge. I know it's hard, but let's try to do that. Okay. If I go back five years pre-tariff, pre-COVID, the S&P 500 is up about 15% a year, every year, since then, even with this recent decline, even with a 22% drawdown top to bottom in the year 2022.

Two, what kinds of lessons should longer and medium-term investors take away from now and what the market has done for the last five years? I think everybody just needs to take a deep breath and zoom out. Now, what you hear online, I know you're seeing this too on your feeds, is people, well, this is different. This is one person, and he's lost his mind, and we can't trust anything. and even the people that think he's completely rational. This is very different because it's the hands of one person. This is why horror movies are scary. They all have the exact same general theme.

There's a bad guy, shows up, scares everybody, kills everybody. Now we killed him. Now he's back alive at the end. But we get scared because it's a little bit different circumstances every time. Yes, this is different than COVID, which was different than 9-11, which was different than the 0809 crisis. But if we can just zoom out a little bit, if you are a young investor, this is a gift. If you're saving in your 401k, and by young, I mean working and contributing at all.

You can be 70 years old. If you're adding, this is a gift. Keep your contributions. If you were hoarding cash, keep investing. If you're retired, this is why you have short-term bonds. You were wondering for the last five years, why the hell do I have these? This is why you're going to be fine. Over five years, the market's positive about 95% of the time. Do you really believe that 10 years from now it's going to cost less to go to Disney World? It's going to cost less to buy a and McDonald's, give me a break. Everyone knows it's going to work itself out over time. It's probably going to be months or quarters, not a decade. But if you just zoom out a little bit, it's a lot easier to make the right decisions going through this. It is. And Peter,

I'm going to go back to you because I think you're making an important point. And let's be honest, because of who's involved, the passion. I'm going to use a nice word, Nancy. The passion is a lot higher. If you post any, if I, when I post the market's up 90% in four years, people are going to crap on me because they're mad. that I said anything that was relatively positive. I get it. But, Peter, if you are and retirees are like, I'm being wiped out, are you? If you're, Peter, you run the number one ranked wealth management, or one of the top ranked wealth management firms in the world. If you're 80 years old and your financial advisor has put you 100% into stocks and you're getting wiped out now

because you have no bonds, which by the way are up, if you have a half and half portfolio, you're probably flat, maybe even slightly higher. If you're 100% in stocks right now, you fire your financial advisor. 100%. I think there's two things. If you're really saying, I'm down, I can't survive this.

I'm 100% in stocks. Well, you definitely have the wrong advisor. You should never under any circumstances be at the mercy of the market, not based on who's president because stuff happens. No one predicted any of those bare markets. They're not on the bingo card coming in, in anybody's given year, whether it's COVID 9-11 or whatever. Never put yourself at the mercy of the

market. Also, never listen to anybody who tells you how to navigate this going in and out. I mean, today was a great example. Just a rumor that there might be a pause to potentially have a discussion about the tariffs, cause the market to soar. That tells you that no one's going to ring a bell. The market's going to move before anything happens. Yeah, I agree with that 100%. I think you have to remind your. clients that they haven't lost anything yet unless they sell. But don't say that. I tweeted that out.

It had to delete the tweet. The only tweet I ever deleted because people misinterpreted it. Number one, I was responding to something I heard on another network, which pissed me, ticked me off. And your point, while painful is well said. Yeah. You're saying it. Unless you sell. You haven't lost it.

You're down. Right. And it's painful, but you haven't lost anything yet. And I would just point it. I've been doing it. So, Bob, I've got five years on you. I've been doing this a little bit over 40 years. And it never feels good.

And when you get through the bare market period, what you always ask yourself is, why didn't I invest more? And so that would be my advice. High quality companies, dividend growers, stick to those names, and then you can add some excitement around the edges. I think, Bob, the fear, and I don't want to speak for our entire audience, I respect all of them, different timelines, different risk profiles, different views. But I think, Bob, and I'm sure you've heard it, the fear, is that what? if this is a multi-year thing because it's a new global trade war, maybe it's a war war when you factor in Iran, and markets go down another 20% from here, like Larry Fink reportedly said in a in a sort of a Q&A session earlier today. Yeah, that's possible, but I think that's highly

unlikely. And the circumstances today don't mirror anything like 2000 and certainly don't mirror anything like the great financial crisis in the situation we had there. This is completely different. It's self-inflicted, and that's why I think that it can correct a little bit, and I think the markets are trying to say that. I would just listen to the very fine advice Nancy and Peter are offering everybody. When you have a 20% down, and we touch 20% off of the highs, that's a fairly rare event. That doesn't happen that often, but it does happen. And in most situations, I talked about this in my book a couple of years ago, in most cases, you are made whole 18 months in most of these situations where you're down 20% or more.

So listen to what Nancy said. You are not losing anything until you actually sell. Have a long-term perspective on the market. Most of the time, these situations where you have these notable declines of 20% or more, the market pulls back. That's what capitalism does. It self-corrects and figures out a way around it. And the opinion of the market right now is hopefully there's going to be some room for further negotiations. Yeah, do yourself a favor, Bob.

Don't post that the social media that you're not losing it to yourself. I did that. It's like the greatest. It was just a terrible disaster for me. I had to delete the tweet. Peter Malook, on that note, your clients are afraid, right? They are worried. I get it.

This is a real loss. You look, I had X. Now I have X minus 20. Do you have any comforting words for them because it is a scary time? And people tend to do the exact wrong thing at the wrong time because psychology and emotion kick in. Oh, psychology and emotion. I mean, this is like a cesspool of psychology and emotion. We've got politics and we've got money. You know, take someone's money and you combine it with politics and it's just you've got an emotional recipe for

disaster. And when accounts are going down, you know, people get nervous anyway. You take this off of record highs. You take it off record low volatility. I mean, the markets are coming off very, very big numbers. So it's just been so long without this, it's shaking people up. But I will tell you this, my clients as a group are unfazed. And this is very different than COVID, where people were truly fearful. Here, more of the calls are around, well, what's the opportunity? And when should I sell my bonds and buy more stocks and trying to get people to just, hey, let's wait and see what happens a little bit more from here. I still have a lot of uncertainty around this. I think it can get much worse before it gets better.

I have no idea where the bottom is. But I think for the educated investor who's got an allocation where they're not at the mercy of the market, you kind of shrug your shoulders and you wait it out. And if you're contributing, you get excited about it. Nancy, we'll let it go there. But should we be now is not the time to be selling stocks, but should we be buying something? Yeah, we are selectively. Yeah.

And don't be in a hurry. Just buy a little bit and then wait because, like, as Peter said, you don't know. We don't know. And it could keep going down. Let's be very clear. Absolutely could. Yeah. But what's remarkable here is we are not talking about a global economic crisis in the traditional

way that we understand it, where the economies are weakening for some macro reason. We are talking about something that has been put on from the outside that could change with a tweet. I think that's something that makes everyone a little crazy. This really is a sort of a unique situation. And the fact that it could change literally tomorrow or this afternoon. makes it very, very difficult for people to figure out what's going on, even for a few months. That's why we're here. That's why Bob Pisani, you're there, and Peter Malook is there, and Nancy Tangler is here, and maybe even why I'm here.

Thank you all very much. Do appreciate it. Sage Ward trying to bring a little namaste into these markets. All right. Coming up after the break, we're all over this, in many ways, historic market action, mixed messages, bad intel, sending stock. down before they went back up, before they went back down, before they went back up. Plus, we're going to recap the latest out of the White House on this hectic and very busy newsday. You can't afford to go anywhere. We're back right after this. All right. Welcome back to Power Lunch. I want to talk oil and energy right now. The sector may not be as impacted as much by tariffs. Remember, energy itself is exempt. But on fears of a recession, global slowdown and OPEC adding more barrels of oil to the market, crude oil.

was below 60 earlier. It's not today. Right now it's $61.22. But it was earlier today below $60 a barrel. And you're going to want to pay very close attention to our next guest. He runs the only natural gas pipeline company with assets in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Wow. Francois Paul Rier is the president and CEO of T.C. Energy trades on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange, Francois, we set this up weeks ago. It's great to have you on. Nice to be here. Because while energy is exempt from tariffs, steel and aluminum are not. I'm told to build a pipeline, there's a lot of metal. Where do you come in on the current tariffs? So look, with respect to energy, this is a very energy literate administration that's come

into the White House. So they understand the need for collaboration between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Energy flows, ignore borders. So there's Canadian natural gas that feeds the Pacific Northwest. There's U.S. Northeast gas that feeds Canada, and then Texas gas that feeds Mexico. So it was very smart of them to exempt those. But with respect to steel and aluminum, the auto sector, of course, has also been hit with respect to the tariff that were announced a few days ago. It's going to be a bit challenging. You know, auto parts cross the border six or seven times between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico,

before an automobile is made. So there's still not a lot of clarity around how the tariffs will actually impact the cost of it. We're not hearing from a lot of U.S. CEOs. I get it. If I was advising a U.S. CEO, I would say, listen, just don't say anything. Because you don't want to be in the line of fire. So we really appreciate you coming on and opening up your views, Francois. So if you were going to send a message to Washington,

and they're watching right now, on behalf of Canadian CEOs, what would that message be? The message would be that the U.S. has been our friend for the last 75 years. It has been and will always be the number one market in which Canadians sell their products. And we are anxious to resolve a situation

and continue to be friends and see mutual benefits. and growing both economies together, be it through exchange of energy or other products. I know you're pricing in parts of Canada, Western Canadian Select Oil can be different than our WTI. So I'll say numbers to a lot of our audience that may be thinking, that's not right.

Tell us about the relationship between lower oil prices and natural gas output. What is it, is $60 oil, do we get more oil, less oil? What does it mean for you and natural gas? So on the natural gas side, they're largely independent. The energy equivalent of natural gas to oil is about a six to one ratio. So when natural gas is selling at $4, the energy equivalent is $24 on the oil side, and of course, trading much higher than that. And that speaks to the constraints there are around natural gas around North America.

Oil is a much more liquid market. The exception to that would be in the Permian where the natural gas basically comes up as a byproduct of the oil production. the natural gas is free, and that tends to put a bit of a ceiling on natural gas prices around North America. So if we see oil stay at 60, or go to 50, talking WTI, not Western Canadians like, what does that mean for natural gas prices for you, both in Canada and here? And in Mexico. It's a question of substitution. So the cheaper oil gets, the less economic incentive there is to switch to natural gas.

So when you see the oil price down around $60 or even lower than that, you'll see continued utilization of oil in all parts of the world and less fuel switching to natural gas. Natural gas was having a moment. I mean, all we talk about now was terrorists, but before it was a lot of cold and coal's going away, thankfully. But we talked a lot about renewables, last administration, natural gas people realized, well, okay, carbon-free emissions. in some cases, you capture some of those emissions and do whatever. It's better than coal from an emissions perspective. Is natural gases moment over, or is it still going just under the radar now?

We're in the first inning, Brian, of the moment for natural gas. I think with the emergence of data centers and the amount of electricity demand that's going to ensue and... Has any of that changed? Because the market traded on that for two years, Francois. Yeah. Has any number you're seeing changed as far as data center and electricity demand estimates? Demand estimates have actually gone up. I've been doing this for 35 years, and I haven't seen electricity demand this robust in terms of a long-term forecast in that entire time.

So that's what's going to drive natural gas consumption because the market share of natural gas in power generation is growing and growing and growing because it's lower on the emissions profile. And it's also reliable as opposed to wind and solar, which are essentially weather dependent. That's really, what you just said could actually move markets because that's critical, because the market traded on that very quickly. I know we've got to go, just explain to our viewers that a lot of the gas they may use in America comes directly from you. I mean, literally, directly from you. Yeah, we supply 30% of the natural gas in the United States for LNG exports, for power generation, for heating of homes. and so the Western Canadian Basin has a lot to do with the U.S.

ability to achieve energy dominance and to have affordable and reliable energy. 30% of U.S. natural gas. That's a lot. Francois Porriere, T.C. Energy. Appreciate you coming in. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right, folks.

Well, yields are now moving up. They had collapsed earlier in the day. The 10-year yields at 4.16% after the U.S. This will call it Kevin Hassett misquote mess. But unlike stocks, bonds are holding up as well. We'll get much more on all of this. Next, Rick Santell. All right, welcome back to Power Lunch.

Just about 2.30 here on the East Coast. You're looking at a market now, which, again, if you're just joining us, NASDAX is up 2 tenths of 1%. S&P, effectively flat, NASDA or Dow down 7 tenths of 1%. But, again, not telling the story at all. Markets opened up down 3 and 4%. on an erroneous tweet, misquoting somebody in the White House. We saw market spike.

Then they fell back down. They came back up, and now they are flat. We also saw big moves in bond yields today. Bonds got bought as big as stocks fell. The yield at one point in the tenure was 4.9%. Now we've seen bonds turn. We're at 4.15%. Let's get to Rick Santelli.

And Rick, I don't know if you saw my interview or discussion with Bob Pisani. and I know you've been doing this about as long. I mean, the moves that we're seeing in the bond market are about the same as the stock market. It's really unprecedented in some ways, I think. Well, you know, I know Bob Pisani's been covering the floor a long time. Maybe the one difference is I was in the pits. I know what it feels like in your stomach

to be looking up and see these tape bombs that move markets. Now, you pointed out a lot of important details, but I will tell viewers, as you look at twos and three. 10s right now on the same chart. And this goes back towards the 2nd of April, is that yields were already moving up. The stencil was in place even before those erroneous headlines. And that's really important. Now, as you look at that chart, you can see that big spike when the asset headlines hit that were incorrect. But do remember, it was hours and hours earlier that we hit some of the lowest yields. Well, the two-year, briefly, get this, hit 343. If it would have

closed there. That would have been the lowest yield closed since CEP of 22. The tens briefly traded under 390 and now as they sit it's a two for one day. The tens are up what 17, 18 base points, double the amount of basis points in a two year and that is a key detail. Now let's look at a mid-feb of 2022 Brian Tuesday 10's spread because this is a key. The long-dated treasury yields have a mind of their own today. and they really even did before the headline.

They're moving up at a much faster pace. That's spread in the mid-40s right now. That's the steepest the curve has been in three years. Why is that important? Because I've said many times that we can talk about flight to safety, and it occurs during these weird times of big volatility. But in the end, debt and deficits still matter. Guess what?

We have auctions this week. Threes, tens, thirties, tomorrhities, tomorrow, will be threes, followed by tens and thirties. Why do I bring that up? Because in many investors' minds, this is going to be a key to watch how these volatile markets are going to respond to demand for investors at auctions at a time where, you know, we are kind of somewhat picking some antagonistic situations from the type of allies that we normally have show up at our auctions.

So we want to have real quickly the VIX. You know, the VIX touched over 60 today. then when I first walked down the floor about an hour ago, it was down on the day. So that volatility is only second to what we were in COVID. 82.7 was the high on the VIX. During the credit crisis, 81 was the high. But this is huge. Watch the VIX in terms of 45.

That's a key area for the close. Back to you, Sully. Yeah, a lot going on. Certainly appreciate the wisdom in time. Rick Santelli, you're right. Got some breaking news. New comments on Twitter, X, from Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, Amon Javvers.

What is he saying? Well, Brian, the market's been looking for any indication of a negotiation ongoing. And Treasury Secretary Bessent now posting on X that there is a negotiation with at least one country. Treasury Secretary is saying following a very constructive phone discussion with the government of Japan, President Trump has asked me and the U.S. Trade Rep to open negotiations to implement the president's vision for the new golden age of global trade with Japanese Prime Minister Shigr. Uigh-Ishiba and his cabinet. The Treasury Secretary going on to say Japan remains among America's closest allies, and I look

forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, et cetera. So the Treasury Secretary here indicating that there is a live negotiation now between the United States and Japan at least. So the question for the markets is how many more negotiations are we likely to see here, even though you've had folks like Peter Navarro from this White House on television saying, this This is not a negotiation. You now have the Treasury Secretary saying this is a negotiation. So how is that likely to play out?

We don't know. But one indicator that we'll be looking at, Brian, is that we're about to see President Trump and the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office taking a couple of questions from reporters. We'll see whether there's a negotiation there, too, between the United States and Israel on these tariffs that the U.S. slapped on Israel as well last week. So any indication of deal-making there? will be interesting to watch as well.

And again, I know we got to go. But we had a similar headline from Vietnam. Peter Navarro on Squawk Box this morning saying directly, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Zero percent, not enough. They're still cheating. Now we have a similar, I guess, comment from the Japanese delegation. So if this does come to pass, if this becomes more real,

and I'm doing air quotes, Aeman, than Vietnam, maybe that is a comfort level the market might find. Yeah, I think that's right. And, you know, Besson here clearly telegraphing that there's more here to negotiate than just the tariffs themselves. He says they're going to have an engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies. So that's that below zero piece that Peter Navarro was talking about on CNBC earlier this morning. Navarro said that it's not good enough for countries to go to zero tariffs. So what they need to do is eliminate what the White House sees as a whole host of other trade obstructions that have taken place over the past decades.

Besson here singing from the same song sheet, but the notes, you might hear them a little bit differently between Besson and Peter Navarro. Amon Javars at the White House on a busy day. Amon, thank you very much. By the way, speaking of President Trump, he is expected to speak live from the Oval Office. There was supposed to be a full press conference. You heard Amy and talk earlier. That press conference has been shifted to the Oval Office and is now what we call a pool spray, but it should involve reporter questions.

I would hope one of these reporters, whoever's in that room, will ask about these critical topics to you and your money. We're waiting on that news conference, and we're going to bring it to you when it happens. Take a short break. We're back. There's a live look at the White House. See you in two minutes. Welcome back to Power Lunch. I'm Bertha Coombs at the CNBC News Update. Maine is suing the Trump administration over the USDA's decision to withhold federal funds to feed school children.

The freeze is in response to Maine's refusal to ban transgender women from sports. It came up after Maine's governor and the president clashed over the issue during a White House event in February in which they promised to see one another. in court. Laurie Walla Daybell, the mom who received multiple life sentences for the murders of her two children and a romantic rival is back in court. She is representing herself in a trial over the murder of her fourth husband, Charles Valo. She has pleaded not guilty, but prosecutors say she conspired with her brother to murder Valo

to collect life insurance. And the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated their 2024 World Seventh, Series win today at the White House. All of the Dodgers' biggest names were there, including Mootie Betts, who previously had skipped a White House visit in 2019 after winning a title with the Red Sox. The team gifted President Trump his own jersey with the number 47 on it. Brian, back to view. Yeah, no comments on whether or not they were asked about tariffs. They'd be the only ones the White House that weren't if they weren't.

Bertha, thank you very much. It's torpedo boats, those torpedo bats. That's what everybody's asking about. Especially around Yankee territory around here. Bertha, thank you. Torpedo bats. All right. Let's talk more now about the other T.

That is tariffs with your next guest. He heads one of the largest global trade and customs practices in the world, counting nearly every Fortune 100 company as their client. Joining us now, Andrew Siciliano. He is KPMG's trade and customs global practice lead. Andrew, aside for the fact that you're probably not sleeping at all, Nobody in your team might be. A lot of CEOs and CFOs are watching CNBC right now.

What is your guidance to them? Yeah, absolutely right. There's a lot of truth to that. We have been working day and night helping our clients navigate this disruption. It's been a real fire drill. We're calling it tariff triage. The tariffs last week when they were announced were really widespread, much higher than expected.

Companies are focused on cash flow, the current order. the complexity of these new rules. So it's a lot to consider. Long-term what companies are doing right now, they're pulling every lever they can to minimize these tariffs. So they're looking at supply diversification, negotiating contracts with suppliers and customers. They're looking at onshoreing more goods.

And they're also looking at tariff mitigation. So that's something that has always been an opportunity for companies to strategically look at what they're paying. Now everyone is taking advantage of every single opportunity they can to prepare for these tariffs. What is tariff mitigation? So Brian, that's a great question. So let me start from the basics. So there's kind of three pillars when you pay tariffs.

There's the country of origin. There's the tariff classification and there's the valuation. You need all three of those to determine what tariffs apply. So let's start with country of origin. The country of origin is where the good is basically made or transformed, substantially transformed. it's not always the country of export. So just because you buy a good from China, doesn't mean the country of origin is China.

So a lot of companies don't realize that, and they rely on the country of export. Easy to get wrong. The classification is also going to drive which tariffs apply. Every good is classified when it's imported. Really, really important to get that right. And then the values are good. The valuation rules are very complicated.

You have to make sure you have the right transaction, the right values included. Some values are not dutiable. And you have to make. make sure that you're using the right method of appraisment. There's different types of ways to value the good. So you've got to get those three right. From there, there are a couple opportunities that just came out last week stemming from the reciprocals. So one of them is country of origin tracing. So what does that mean? 20% of the value of the good, if it's U.S. origin,

you could exclude. So you could mitigate your tariff by excluding the U.S. origin. So how do you know what needs are from U.S. origin. So you have to go out and get certificates. You have to authenticate what's from yours origin. This is happening, Andrew, and maybe this is why, and you don't have to speculate on this, I will, but maybe this is why the government this morning on Navar, Peter Navarro, and Squawk Box said we're kind of pushing back on Vietnam because I think it sounds like they're afraid that China goods could go through Vietnam, right? Northern Vietnam and then come through. It's, oh, we're not going to tear off the Vietnam product. Even though it's actually a China product, we're seeing that now from the Biden tariffs on solar panels.

Are we not that it's hard to track? It's not political. It's just hard to keep track of where something is actually from if it moves through a couple of different nations on the way here. Brian, that's a great point. Now is it hard to track the finish good? It's even harder to track the materials to exclude them from the value. So companies that want to take advantage of that 20% U.S. origin. So let me be clear, if the good has more than 20% U.S. origin, say it has 80% U.S. origin, you could exclude all the U.S. origin, but you got to prove it. That's the hardest part. So companies are scrimandling to put systems in place, and that's what we're helping them work right now. Just supply chain traceability.

Andrew, Siciliano, KPMG on the global trade side. A good real world lesson there. I know a lot of CEOs and CFOs are watching, trying to figure out exactly what to do. Andrew, thank you very much. All right, folks, we want to show you the NASDAQ and technology stocks because, I mean, it's only Monday at 245 Eastern time. It feels like Thursday. It's been that kind of day. The NASDAQ for now with just over an hour in trading is higher. Obviously, we close up.

It will for today. And what was a 10% drop in two days. But hey, these markets like the weather. If you don't like it, just wait a minute. We're back right after this. All right, welcome back. He joined us probably for the markets. So the markets we shall give you, and we are higher for now, the NASDAQ, which was down 5%.

Five percent earlier in the session. It's like being down 35 at the half in basketball and winning. I think we've seen that actually in college lately. The NASDAQ up one half of 1%, the S&B up one tenth of 1%, and the Dow is down fractually, down about six-tenths of 1%. But I guess down 260 is the new flat, given these recent markets. Nancy Tangler rejoining us. Quint Taitro founder and president of Jewel Financial also joining us now.

Quint, your take on the last two and a half, three days of market action. Yeah, Brian, thanks for having me. First of all, it's been a wild ride. There's no question. And we never like to downplay losses. They're just never fun for anybody. but the reality is, I disagree with most people out there that this is, in our opinion, an unbelievable opportunity.

I mean, this, you know, coming into today, you had an S&P down 13 and a half. I guess it is now still 13 and a half with the pre-market and the early opening. I mean, we're pushing 17% for the year. So as passive investors, which I think most of our audience is, it's an opportunity, I think, to look at your portfolio and consider some rebalancing. Your fixed income side, unlike 2022, has done really well and probably weathered the storm, if not up, on the year. And you're probably out of whack. It's very difficult to do the buy, low, sell high. Everybody talks about it. Everybody wants to do it. But when the opportunity arises, it's very, very difficult. We see this as an incredible opportunity here to rotate and look for buying opportunities.

What's fascinating, Nancy, is that for two years, better part of two years, the market was dominated by a few stocks that traded on AI dreams. A lot of the stock market didn't do very much at all for two years. You know, the MAG 7 sort of dominated. You had the CEO of T.C. Energy, who maybe you met backstage, who said no cut in demand expected so far for energy. And yet the market hasn't seemed to care. Right. It's kind of weird. Like, it's like AI just vanished.

when it was everything for two years. Yeah. And it's still a major part of our theme. And I agree. We are in buying selectively names as disparate as Williams and Netflix. The pipeline company Williams? Yeah. Well, there you go.

Yeah, Accenture and T.J. Max. So we've been adding to names like that. But we also still are overweight technology. And rather than focus on the bad news, because we've been doing plenty of that, I think there is some good news. AI is still alive and well. productivity, it's shown up in productivity, which has grown 2%, five consecutive quarters. Mark Benioff of CRM said recently that his customers are experiencing 20 to 50% cost savings due to AI and the agents offered in their products. So I do think that story's still intact.

I think you use this as an opportunity to use volatility as your friend and buy the names that have gotten beaten up in those spaces. And that's what we've continued. Let me flip it. a little bit, Quint, and this will be a very unpopular opinion. So I'm going to apologize to 99% of our audience right now. Back in August, I tweeted out a picture of me at the NASDAQ in 1999, I think, in front of companies that don't exist anymore. And I was basically like, watch out for AI. Like, just be careful out there, folks, because I've been here before, Nancy's been here before, you've been here before. Things were getting stupid back in August.

I can't say that. I, you know, I kind of implied it. Were the markets too high coming into this? forget about tariffs, okay? Are, were the markets stupid? And there's people out there that don't seem to realize that stocks can and will go down. Yeah, I agree. I mean, we were a seller into the high multiples. I mean, you had people coming out and praising some of these names that are trading 30, 40, 50 times earnings. But now, here they are.

and to Nancy's point, Nvidia's not going away. Apple's not going away. Even a Palantir, the new, you know, kind of man on the block is not going away. And these are names now that not only have come in considerably, Nvidia 153 to 86 at today's low. Now it's trading at a forward multiple of 17, Apple at 22. So the multiples have been cut in half. I don't think this is like 99. I traded in that environment. and I cut my teeth as a broker in 2000, because that was just littered with companies that had no real earnings. They basically had no revenue, most of them. And so this is, in my opinion, extremely different. I don't see this as a dot-com bust. I do see this as a revaluation. But ultimately, if you don't want to be a stock picker, if you're listening to this show and you're like, I don't

know which one to pick, I think there's so many broad ETF averages out there that you can leg into that you will get the exposure and ultimately when the winners emerge, that's how you know you will be successful. Yeah. And S&P 500 QQQVG, they're not going away. This is an opportunity, in our opinion. Or just give your money to Nancy Tangler of Laffer Tangler investments. Thank you. Yes, please. Thank you. Quint Tatro, Jewel Financial. Optimistic view, unpopular, but I like it. All right, we continue to track this bottle session for stocks to Dow again, down 1% NASDAQ may turn negative. Yet again, we're going to take a short break, and then we're back with more right after

this. As bad as tariff talk may be for stocks everywhere lately, things do seem to be escalating a little bit more with China. President Trump saying on social media that if China goes through with a 34% increase on tariffs on American products, the U.S. will then retaliate again with an additional 50% tariff on China made. products. That would be a 100% tariff for those of you counting at home. That is continuing to hit companies which make and sell a lot of products in China. Names like Tesla, Apple, and Nike. It's a

story that has been hitting lately all of tech and semiconductors. Let's kind of bring it all together with Christina Parts and Ovelas. Christina. Who's at the NASDAQ right now? And you talked about it bouncing back. It's really bouncing back from hitting a 52 week low today. And just over the last three trading sessions. Every single stock on the NASDAQ 100 has really fallen with the steepest drops coming from Micron, Micotrip, Diamond Back Energy, and Warner Brothers. Names still in the red, you just talked about it, Nike, Apple, Tesla. They all have significant China exposure, particularly as President Trump threatened an additional tariff, and we'll see if that actually follows through. But for my sector, chip and hardware names, those are the ones most

at risk, the ones I cover. The U.S. may have accounted for only 4% of China's chip imports, or roughly $10 billion from the U.S. going into China last year, but the majority were CPUs, and that's why this bar chart is pretty important. Intel, analog devices, Texas instruments, their revenues are the most exposed. You can see Intel almost 30% exposed to China. Jeffries says these companies really can maybe dodge Chinese tariffs by outsourcing the final packaging to non-U.S. countries, but really warns that China, and this is the important part, that China may respond with even harsher countermeasures, potentially banning their chips in entirely from key sectors like the auto, as well as industrial applications and sector. And so despite today's, I would say, rally in chips names that we had earlier, maybe a few minutes

ago, analysts remain cautious if trade tensions continue to escalate within this space. InVIDIA production structure, for example, with chips manufactured in non-U.S. foundries and shipped directly to China really highlight how complex these supply chains are. And it's just really difficult to maintain access to this crucial Chinese market. and really trying to figure out, Brian, where every single park comes from. That's it. Dissecting it down, aversion engineering, Christina Parts and Evellus. Thank you very much. Folks, that's it. We'll see you tomorrow.