Power Lunch - Market sells off as AI fears continue to mount 11/13/25

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

The Nasdaq, S&P and Dow go through a sell-off as investor concerns around AI and valuations continue.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, more AI fears, sending stocks lower even as the government reopens. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan. Kelly is back soon. We have got a broad selloff across the board. The NASDAQ is down more than 2%. AI darlings like Nvidia, Broadcom, Palantier, Oracle, and more all being sold off. The market worried about valuations and, yes, a possible bubble.

It is not just AI. Disney also getting slammed after earnings. The Dow's run to 50K, at least for now, we'll have to wait as that index also falls. Plus, here's a hot take others are not talking about. Could AI actually lower your electricity bills? We'll tell you why it might. And could the U.S. be about to invade Venezuela? It's not impossible. We'll get the story and the possible impact on oil ahead with RBC's Halima Croft that up in minutes. All right, folks, welcome. It's a busy day. Let's jump right in. Start off here with the markets and your money. It is, as you can see, an ugly day right now. The NASDAQ down about 2%, adding to its decline for the month. Valuation fears impacting stocks. But your first guest today says, don't be deterred. He thinks the S&P 500 will power up next year all the way to 7750.

Let's start off a big day. Well, Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director of Equity, Derivatives, Quantitative, strategy at Evercore ISI. Julian, welcome one day doth not a trend make, but do you have a take on what's happening today? Well, this is a classic by the rumor sell the news, right? So the market turned last Friday on anticipation of the government reopening. And essentially, if you look at it, basically somewhere plus or minus when the president signed the bill to reopen the government last night, we peaked. And frankly, frankly, when you think about it, the expectation was that you would have uncertainty resolved. And lo and behold, if anything, uncertainty has intensified a bit more, given the fact that there's

an opaque aspect to whether or not we're going to get October economic data, how we're going to get it, what form we're going to get it. And the net effect of all of that is it's actually made it basically a coin toss, whether the Fed is going to cut rates in December. And given the run that we've had in high multiple stocks, that's a headwind in the near term. Well, should investors care if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December or cuts rates in January? Well, look, for the bullish case, you would certainly prefer that they cut in December. It's also a function of the messaging. if the data is either not produced or not terribly clear, and it calls into question whether

there's going to be a cut in January if there isn't in December. And for the record, Evercore ISI does believe that they do cut in December. It's just another layer of uncertainty that with a market trading at 26 times, uncertainty is definitely one of those things that is more difficult for stocks to digest. Yes, here. So give us the bull case. Take us, Julian, to 7750 next year. Sure. The bull case really rests on this idea that structural bull markets like the one we've been in since the low in October 2022, driven by the AI theme, don't tend to end on valuation alone. The things that we'd be looking for are recession. There are a few, if any, signs of recession. The second sort of element

would be an adverse interest rate set up. From the perspective of the Fed, you may not get as many cuts as the market is pricing in right now, but the one thing we know you won't get, which was what killed the Internet rally in 1999, was a Fed that was hiking. They actually hikes six times in the second half of 1999 to pop what they perceived to be a bubble. That is not going to happen in our view till at least the midterms next year. There will be no hikes, regardless of how the data sorts itself out. Ten-year yields remain very range-bound.

And for us, if you look at past bull markets going back 25 years, they've all had late-stage capital market surges, and we've certainly seen a pickup in deal activity in recent weeks and months, but frankly, compared to the prior peaks in 2021, 2007, and 1999, we think there's lots more to go that is the prop against a Washington that will likely continue to be providing liquidity, monetary and fiscal. Those are the elements that get you to 77. Fair enough, I hear that, but I'm looking at like an Oracle. Oracle is kind of been the poster child of the AI run. Oracle's now down 30% in a month. It's down 5% today, and it's 63% from its average analyst price target of $351, and I'm not picking on Oracle, what I'm using that

as kind of these are the stocks that really powered the market up. Can the market do your 7750 Julian Emanuel without the participation of the oracles of the world? Well, so actually, Brian, Oracle, as strange as it may sound, is actually a good sign because what it's telling you is that the market rightly became concerned about the assumption. of more debt to power the AI revolution. And of course, when you think about the majority of the names that have been the leaders in this bull market and those we think will continue to be the leaders, they have extraordinary amounts of free cash flow that have enabled them to fund this CAP-X without having to incur massive amounts of new debt. So in this respect,

what this shows is that the markets are not ahead of themselves. sell speculively. There's still, you know, rational pricing going on, and the risks are being acknowledged. And so for us, that sets the table for, you know, a renewed risk appetite, whether it's this week, next week, or at the start of the year, centered around the fact that the theme in general, powered by earnings, has further to go. There we go. And I want to remind our viewers, the S&P 500 is still positive over the past week, even including today. Julian Emanuel, the bullish take to 7750. Julian, thank you very much.

All right, so let's stay with stocks and markets and your money. You're welcome. But get a little more micro, dive more to specific names, because with many stocks lower today, maybe it is a good time to snap up some stocks that may or may not be on sale. Why are stocks the only thing we don't want to buy when they go down in price? joining us Victoria Green, Chief Investment Officer at G-squared, CNBC contributor. You get my point.

Everything else in our lives, we want to buy when it's on sale or you get a discount or rebate. For some reason, not stocks. It's like a psychological trick. I know, I know. And it's the prime directive of investing, buy, low, sell high. And when we're high, everybody wants to buy. Stop the presses, Victoria.

Buy low, sell high. So what do you make? Do you have a take? I know we're going to get micro. You have a take on today? Yeah, look. This is a little bit of risk off free pricing. Everybody's waiting on Navidia Day next week.

We've had some bullish things on AMD and tech. Some of this is just a pullback, maybe some profit taking. I don't think AI is broken. We're still less than 4% off the highs. I know this feels miserable, but markets can go down a little bit. This is a normal correction within an uptrend. Nothing I'm worried about today. Yes, you're seeing some repricing on AI, but it's not something that I think this is panic selling.

I think this is more little repositioning, some profit taking, but nothing to me is broken on AI, AI. Earning growth in that happens. You heard my point on Oracle, and we could throw Oracle up again. And again, not picking on Oracle, but Oracle has kind of been the poster child. It's down five minutes off, 30% in a month for Oracle. That's a big move for one of the world's most important companies. Absolutely, it is. It also had a massive move up going into this 30% drop. So if you look at the chart and back the tart out a little bit to say, what's Oracle's one year or year-to-date chart looks like still looks pretty good. Obviously, we'd love it to stop bleeding off at some point. But I think a lot of this did. For me, it's still intact.

Did it get a little in front of itself? Maybe do I see 200 a good stopping point for Oracle, absolutely. You see, what is a good stopping? 200 could be a nice little floor for them to... Well, that would be a long... I mean, that's another $15 from here. Could be. The average stock price is $351 and change on Oracle.

There's upside to it. But right now when you have risk-off sentiment, you might have a little bit of downside. I don't think anybody's admitting we haven't had ball in the market, so a little bit of all here is a very normal thing. Okay. Let's get a little more micro, because let's say we're talking about, data centers. We've got a great segment coming up on utilities and data centers in just a couple of minutes. But let's talk about how you get them made. Everybody focuses on the microchips and they

focus on the software. What they don't focus on is the power lines, actually getting power to and from places. You are. Quanta services, that's what they do. You want to talk power lines on power lines? Why not? Powerline lunch. Powerline lunch. It seems to fit. Powerline lunch. I love. Quantar Resources is such a key company for me. Do you understand how old our infrastructure? is the bulk of the U.S. infrastructure, especially the electricity grid, was built from the 1960s and 1970s. And so that makes a lot of it the average age of 40 years old. And now you're connecting in and having these massive needs for power and electrification. We need to build transmission lines to all of these data centers. We need to repair our transmission lines.

We need to get ready for heavier loads. Quantum resources is absolutely the key player in data line transmission and power line, power line building, connecting into buildings. It's not sexy, but you know what's sexy? Having power. Having power is sexy. And data centers are struggling to get power there. They need quantum resources. We're all following one. You can build this building.

You can stock it with servers. Nothing works until you get some power there. And there was an article in the FT about just this today, too, about how there's sort of this phantom demand because guess what? Nobody's actually plugged it in. Let's completely flip because you know what's sexy again? Avvi, Amgen, and some of the biotechs, they've kind of AI gets all the attention. But biotechs have quietly been on a run.

Huge. In the last about two and a half weeks, the health sector's up about 5% versus tech center up down about 4.5%, 5%. I look at this as a flight to quality. I also see this as finally playing catch-up, right? Year-to-date, health sector still lagging the broad markets, but it's such a quality space. And these companies, they're blue chip, they're divinem players. They've got great drug pipelines. They've got great drugs on the market right now.

And this goes beyond GLP1. This is oncology, cancer drugs, anti-inflammatory drugs, a little bit of Botox for ABV. I know Botox isn't doing great now. They're trying to sell us on baby Botox, meaning short-term... It's baby Botox. Short-term Botox. I'm asking for a friend as I'm on TV and get older. But, you know, speaking of GLP-1s,

yeah, Medicare, right? Some of these stocks have gotten hit also. I don't think everybody I know is getting on one of these shots. They're getting more expansion. They're getting cheaper, which means more people can buy them, maybe insurance coming in. Eli Lilly, is it getting a respect it deserves? Absolutely.

a place you want to be right now. You do want to be. I want to be. I like Lily a ton. I see it's they're the winner of GLP1. And for me, the Medicare thing is huge. I know people are saying, oh, the 250 price point, that's a huge discount off the $1,000 price point on the market. It's not because there's a whole bunch of net rebatings in the back end. That's what people don't get about Medicare. It's not just the cover price. There's other money that goes on the back side. There's shenanigans in Medicare? There's shenanigans in Medicare. But it's true. It matters. And it goes to how much Lilly might make on these drugs. Exactly. And then you've got the pill coming out there. But the Medicaid-Medicare expansion is covering more things and not just

diabetes. It's obesity. It's pre-diabetic. It's got all this coverage. And if you have it in a pill form and not just a shot form, and now it's covered by our largest health care plan potentially at 250 a pop, that is a lot of potential revenue. It's almost the McDonald's service model. I'll make less margin potentially, not as much less than people think, even though the sticker price of 1,000 versus 250. They're not going to make that much less. And it's a massive increase of market share coverage. There you go. Only you, I think you go. Quant of Services, Oracle, Amgen, Abbe, and Eli Lilly, quite the mix. Victoria Green, thank you.

Really appreciate that. Thanks, Brian. Private wealth management. All right, it is a risk off day for bonds as well. The government reopens and bond yields. They're going back higher, back above 4.1%. Let's get more now with Rick Santelli in Chicago. You can comment on the Fed, bond market.

As you prefer, my friend. Well, let's start with the 30-year bond auction. It was the last of a three-part series of treasurer. Treasury supply releases, the 30-year $25 billion completed $125 billion of coupon supply on Monday, Wednesday, and today. Look at the six-hour chart, right straight up at one Eastern rates popped. And if you look at a two-day on a 30, they popped above yesterday's high yields. And if you bring in the whole gang, twos, tens, and 30s, you can see the entire curve's rates are up a bit. They spiked on those results.

They eased back, and they're back towards the high end. Maybe the big story, as Brian pointed out, is the government, well, open. But traders don't care if the government's open. Traders care if the data's getting released. And that is the rub, because many now in the administration have floated this notion that we're not going to get some of the lost data. I don't know how it's going to work out, but investors were not happy about that. They dragged the percentages for Fed funds for the December meeting under 50 percent

because there's pessimism regarding the data, and there was that before they learned that they may not even get totally caught up on the data. So if we want markets to do better, the sooner any relevant data is released, I think investors will take that to heart. But ultimately, what we are seeing is still stubborn, long-end rates. We're still seeing very discriminating investors

when they buy supply, and I don't think either of those issues, Brian, are going to go away anytime soon. Back to you. Well said, and a big debate, certainly ahead when the data starts to roll out. Rick Santelli, thank you very much. All right, coming up, we're going to kind of continue on what we just talked about, but could data centers actually lower your electric bills, lower them? We'll love the story. Others are not talking about, oh, and some utility stock picks for you

on a big downmarket day. Bitcoin back below $100,000, NASDAQ down 2%. We're back right after this. All right, we've got an update and a story that we talked a lot about recently. Remember how, I don't know, last week, we hit on the public SEC filing that showed the big short investor Michael Burry effectively betting against Invidia and Palantir by buying put options. Well, there's a new twist. Burry has apparently deregistered his hedge fund, and it's unclear what may have happened to those options position. There's a lot we don't know, a lot we can't know, but let's find it. at what we do know with Leslie Picker, who is in the no, I've run out of nose.

What's the yes? What's the yes here, Leslie? What do we know? There's a lot of mystery, a lot of intrigue. But interesting timing here, as you point out, Brian. Michael Berry has been ramping up his criticism of hyper-scalers in recent weeks. And now, of course, we've learned that Burry has deregistered his hedge fund, Cyan Asset Management. The SEC's Investment Advisor database showing that Cyan's registration was terminated as of November 10.

As of March, it had about $155 million in assets. Burry's bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 anointed him as a key character in the big short, and over the years, his holdings and commentary have been followed for signs of potential bubbles and froth. In a post on X, Barry said he's onto much better things, November 25th, without divulging more about what he's doing. Earlier this week, he posted about how he believes the hyperscalers are understallers. stating depreciation by $176 billion over the next three years.

Burry argues that they're extending the useful lives of assets in a way that artificially boosts earnings, 26.9% for Oracle, 20.8% for META by 2028, allegedly. And then he said it, quote, gets worse, teasing more detail coming November 25th. So I guess you just really have to mark your calendar for the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, Brian. Do we have any idea what's November 25th? Like, what's he referring to? No idea. And we don't know what form that will take place. Is it just kind of a bigger description or analysis that he publishes regarding the hypers? Is it an AI bet broadly? Is it in the context of some sort of family office? Is that his play? We really don't know. As you mentioned in the intro, there are really

more questions at this point than answers. Well, hopefully whatever news it is won't get buried in the headlines. Good one, yeah. It's a dad job. Leslie Picker, I know you've got to get to our delivering alpha event tonight. I shall let you go. Thank you very much. Have a great day. You too. All right. Let's now pivot to a big topic beginning to get more attention, data centers, and your electric bill. Now recently, there's more concern about how much the massive energy needs, the power data centers and AI might drive up your power costs. Politicians and journalists are both talking about it, but is it true? Well, maybe not. The one story many may not understand is that these so-called hyperscalers, the Amazon's and Googles and metas of the world are going to

pay for their power, much more than you pay for your power. And that extra money goes to the utility as well, which will use some of it to keep, hopefully, residential rates fairly steady. PG and ECE CEO, Patty Poppy, explained it to us like this on Monday at the big EEI conference. In our service area, our residential customers do not subsidize large load. That large load pays its full freight. And because they are based there, they're growing there. The compute demand is up in our service area. That more fully utilizes our grid. There's new revenue that's coming. We haven't had load growth in decades. We've got load But they'll pay for it because that's critical, right?

And yes, some of that pay for it, that extra cash, will flow down to the utility itself, which may explain why so many of these stocks have been great investments this year. One person we met at the conference who has a great handle on all this, Jeffrey's analyst Julian DeMoulin Smith brings some utility stocks he loves as well to set. Julian, great to have you on set. It's not for everybody, but this idea that data centers is going to raise costs is not true. it sounds like they're going to raise earnings, though. Oh, you better believe it. They are certainly going to raise earnings. I mean, look,

they're looking, they're not your father's utilities, right? Let's be honest to ourselves. I mean, the backdrop here is we're looking at the longest run in earnings growth at the highest level we've almost ever seen in the sector's history, right? This kind of follows with the idea that, yes, naturally sales growth and volumetric growth of utility sales is rising. So, indeed, the earnings are. But I think to your point, I think it's really quite accurate. It depends on where you are and who you're asking in terms of whose bills. are actually rising. I think the new paradigm and I think the realities of tech industries

is cognizant of what's going on here. They need to step up. There's a social contract that they understand. And frankly, I think the paradigm that we're looking at here is utilities are going to make it possible where hyperscalers step up and actually reduce consumers' bills. I mean, it might be... So that's not getting

a lot of attention as well, but you look like in northern Pennsylvania. NISOR, I think NI, the ticker, a company you like. They're going to be paying a ton or being paid a ton for energy by Amazon. That's not, the consumers aren't covering that, are they? Look, I mean, that's what's so fascinating about what we're seeing.

So this company, one of their utilities in northern Indiana, just announced a contract where literally over a course of a decade, they're going to give a billion dollars back to consumers. I mean, honestly, that's pretty remarkable. When you think about a lot of the narrative out there saying, hey, we're about to jack your utility bill, and here we are with a novel contract, the latest large-scale data center,

contract to date. Is this going to become... Well, who's paying that billion, though? Is that the data center providers? They're paying NYSource. Nysource is refunding some of that to the consumer. Exactly. And I think this is something that's going to be copied, right? You're going to see this. They need to change the narrative. And they're going to use this as an opportunity to drive, frankly, the paradigm in other states. And look, it's not as if this isn't without earnings. NiceSource is one of our favorite stocks out there in as much as, look, they're almost going to double earnings in less than a decade, right? By 233, we're talking about almost four bucks in earnings, and look, that's just getting started as far as I'm concerned. Yeah, I tried to pin down one of

the CEOs next era on how much Google's paying, and he's going to keep that close to the vest. I get it, but there have been reports that Microsoft will pay constellation about $130 to $140 to $140 per megawatt hour. To put that in perspective, it's about 10 times more than the consumer would pay. What other utilities do you and your team at Jeffries like based on some of that earnings growth? Yeah, I mean, look, I think the utilities are in a really fine position here. I mean, we're talking about companies that when you're, it's not just nice source, you're going to be talking about companies in the Midwest that have a similar backdrop who are able to structure contracts that are going to be able to keep customer bills under check, right?

And frankly, look, it's nice source. It's a Lyant L&T. They're sitting, again, on the other side of Chicago and that major data center hub in Iowa, we're looking at a pretty sizable acceleration. Pivot further south. Evergy, Kansas City, fully regulated utility. Again, you would have thought these companies would have been pretty humdrum and mundane, yet raising guidance, long-term visibility well under the 2030s, which is underpinned by contracts that ramp up only by the mid-2030s and then keep going from there. By the way, David Campbell, who runs Evergy, I did a panel with him at the conference,

but he was on Power Lunch a couple weeks ago because they made a deal with a nuclear startup, backed by a guy named Bill Gates, who you might have heard about is involved with some software, but they're going to get paid a lot of money for that. You better believe it, right? I mean, the nuclear story hasn't even started yet. I mean, honestly, what we're talking about here is capitalizing on natural gas,

coupled with some degree of renewables, and we're going to see that really build out to a meaningful extent. In fact, if anything, look, the overall narrative that you want to be paying attention to here is abundant natural gas, abundant renewables, in the central part of this country, country are making energy competitive consistently.

And this hyperscaler ramp up hasn't really changed that. That's fascinating, different view, because politicians are demonizing the data centers, maybe for their own mistakes because they let powers, but that, I won't let you get into that debate. Julian DeMullen Smith, Jeffreys, really great stock picks. Appreciate it. Different view there, folks. Markets down.

A lot to do. We're back right after this. All right. welcome back on a Thursday. Hope you're having a better day than the market. I want to give you an update as to where we stand right now. And there's a lot of red on the screen, as you can see. The NASDAQ is down 503 points. That's about a 2.1% decline. The Russell 2000 small caps down 2.4. The Dow, the bigger, or lesser loser, I should say, down about one in one quarter percent, in certain reason, whether it's AI, whether it's

valuation concerns, whether it's talk about the Federal Reserve and what they may or may not do because the government's reopening, but there may be a long. lag in data. Will that prevent them from cutting rates in December? Maybe it's D all the above. Either way, markets are down, 10-year yields slightly higher. The crypto complex also taking a pretty big hit. Bitcoin back below 100,000th, 99,052, about 2.5% ether, also down as well. That's actually down more. It does tend to be more volatile than Bitcoin, ether. They're at about 5.7% right now. So markets are down. NASDAQ, as you can see for that graphic on pace for its third down day in a row. And by the way, Oracle, which we highlighted earlier, let's bring this back up again.

Our team, Adrian Great Work, realizing that Oracle is pacing for its worst month since all the way back in 2011. Oracle's obviously had a huge year. But this month is the worst in about 14 years for Oracle down four and a half percent off 30 percent from its highs. We're more now on the macro market selloff. Let's bring in Todd Gordon. He is founder of Inside Edge Capital. Joining us at the NYC, Todd, we're going to bring you on market navigator, get a little more specific, but I got your brain here.

We got the charts. The 50-day moving average on the NASDAQ has been breached to the downside. What are you seeing and looking at technically? Hey, Brian. Yeah, we're coming down to test that 50-day moving average. So it would be the first time since we've been. been below it since we erupted higher from April. You know, do we hold? Do we not? I don't know. I was just talking to Mr. Santoli here.

And, you know, I think the whole thing was post-Palanteer with that Michael Berry, Alex Karp mix-up. Growth trade is overdone. We're taking some chips off the table. You know, we have a steepening of the yield curve, which is kind of bringing some value stocks in favor as the growth comes out. The big question is, do we, you know, push more, take more chips off the table or is it just the sell-off going into Nvidia? That's the big question. Long answer short, I hedge my short-term portfolio, not ready to really make aggressive moves in our longer-term portfolios. Okay, so you heard me reference Oracle, again, not picking on it, but it's kind of one of, I would have met, tell me if I'm wrong, Todd. One of the stocks, like an Invidia,

like it in Palantir, perhaps, that are kind of representative of the risk on mentality? Is that a fair statement, and if it is or not, what else, what other stocks are sort of front of mind for you? Well, obviously, you know, Oracle had a big run up with the big soft bank and, you know, Stargate and all that. I mean, so that was already coming off. But I, again, I'm going back to Palantir, you know, I think there was huge valuation concerns in those earnings last week. this stock had an unbelievable quarter, but was overshadowed again by the very confusing muckleberry tweet storm going back and forth. So, you know, I think if you look at that Palantir quarter, I mean, they had, you know, 100% EPS growth year over year, right?

There was a big concern with Palantir, their government first commercial breakup. They beat the commercial expectations by like 60%, 70%, it was huge. The margins improved. So you're starting to see, you know, a once-known, software company that really caters to the government start to move in a commercial enterprise AI. So these AI-driven companies, are they going to start to realize profits and grow into the valuation? That's what we're struggling with. And of course, Invidia, how is it not a blowout quarter here on November 19th? And how does market react? That's the big question. Yeah, okay. So we called it earlier. I think I didn't. Victoria Green did. Invidia Day.

I mean, maybe it should be like some kind of like a pseudo-national holiday. I mean, how important And are these NVIDIA earnings going to be next week, Todd? Brian, you're important enough. Can we get NVIDA to report in the middle of earnings season rather than have to wait to the end? Yeah. The forward valuation on NVIDIA, I mean, what is it trading on? Forward EPS, probably 35, 36 times earnings in a company at a $4.5 trillion market cap that's growing 50%. You know, it's absolutely unbelievable what's happening here.

I think the AI revolution is real. We have the Fed that's cutting rates. We have a yield curve that's steepening. And, you know, look at the rotation that's happening. Yeah, we're going into financials, we're going into health care, select materials in the gold trade, which is a tricky conversation to have is at risk off, or is that correlated gold higher in terms of lower yields, lower dollar, which is generally supportive of higher equities? So is that gold message that it's giving the market? Are people confusing that? Brian, my head's going in a million different directions.

I still think we are higher three to six months or now. Again, I short-term hedged my short-term fast money portfolio into next week. and I'm going to take it week by week because, and I would imagine and I'm going to go into your head a little bit it's like stranger things. I'm just going to like we're going to go to the upside down. I hope I didn't.

Do I just spoil the show for everybody? We're going to one of that head because for the next couple of it, Nvidia Day is not until the end of the next week. Really, I think it's in a week. So what's going to happen between now and then is the market going to get all screwy because we're kind of waiting and betting

and speculating and putting bets on which way Jensen Wong may go. with earnings on, you know, we know they're going to be good. It's just sort of how good. How good. You know, I also think we're fighting some seasonality as well. I think we're kind of drifting lower. There's not, I mean, I haven't seen the VIX. You know, the VIX is not, I would venture, I guess the VIX is not 23, 24. I mean, if I'm wrong, maybe I'm stupid. Oh, it's 20.48 I'm seeing on the screen. So we're not, we're not ripping higher out of fear. It's

taking some cream off the top. I don't suspect the volume to be massively heavy. So I put a little 10, 600 QQQ put spread. We should be trading about 608, 69 right now. So, again, you know, maybe 4 or 5% of the downside. Maybe that NASDAQ has to give us a little bit of a nod below the 50-day moving average, clear out some stops before the AI, which I still do think we're an AI revolution, reemerges on the upside, and those oracles come back. I mean, Broadcom looks great, KLA Tencore looks great, Nvidia, you know, I'm super long

that. Google looks awesome. Meta's got to come off the floor. you know, we're, sorry, I'm rambling at this point. No, no, no, no. We love the rambling. It's great. I do it every day. I've known you forever. You do it well. Look at Netflix, though. Old school tech is starting to come back. Old school growth, which was slightly more reasonable evaluations coming. Netflix looks great.

Spotify is coming back. I mean, when will metafine the floor? It's the new age, power generation. I was wondering if you go in the energy direction because you're such an energy of Fictionado. But, like, those big energy, bloom energy, I've talked about on social. CNBC ProBanche. I think it's off 20% today, but it's up massively in the year. Context needs to be had that, okay, stocks are up 200%? Yeah, on the sticker, they're down 20% a day, but they're 200% in six months. Like, that matters. Yeah. It does. You matter, and it's a great thing. Listen, you want to buy when stocks are a little bit lower than when they go up. But Todd Gordon, we appreciate you kind of rolling with it. I know you can. And let me be the first to wish you

and your family a very happy Nvidia Day. Traditionally, we have a poll. We air grievances. of strength. Oh, wait, that's a, that's festivist. Todd Gordon, thank you. Thank you, Brad. Good to see you. Appreciate that very much. All right. Now, let's talk about oil and energy, because could the United States be soon ready to either invade Venezuela or try to force out its strongman leader, Nicholas Maduro? Sounds crazy. But according to the CBS News and New York Times and others, senior military officials today presented President Trump with updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes on land. This also comes after the Navy moved an aircraft carrier, our newest, and I think our biggest, into waters near Venezuela. This would also follow

some military strikes on suspected drug dealer boats in their coastal waters. Now, Venezuela, it does not produce nearly the oil it used to. It's above where it was, but still way off its recent highs of about four million barrels a day. Let's talk about it all with Lee Mccroft. Globalhead of commodity strategy at RBC, an important day to have you on because oil is actually one of the few things that's rising today. But is there a real chance the U.S. could go into Venezuela? I mean, are we building up to a regime change operation? Is this display of military force? I mean, it's a massive U.S. military buildup off the coast of Venezuela. Are we trying to play a game of psychops with Maduro essentially saying, like, if you don't leave quietly, we're coming in to

get you? Are we negotiating an exit? The Qataris are involved in negotiations to potentially try to get him to go to Madrid. If he digs in, are we looking at a Noriega endgame where we go in and pick him up and put him in a U.S. prison? Are we potentially talking about a SEAL Team 6 operation, aka like a bin Laden or what we saw with... Is this... I mean, is this possible? You look at the military strikes on alleged drug dealers, an aircraft carrier is going near Venezuela.

CBS News, the reports of talking about land operational. I mean, when you declare him a massive narco trafficker and basically an issue an arrest warrant for him, the question is like, what is the endgame with this much build up off the coast of Venezuela? Are we going to, are we going to stand down or is he going to stand down? Okay. And so a lot of our viewers might be like, oh, the markets are down while we're talking about Venezuela. Okay, number one, Chevron. Chevron is the biggest American operator in Venezuela. Venezuela used to be one of the richest countries in South America. Four million... The biggest oil reserves in the world. Biggest oil reserves in the world.

So it's a little sludgy. Four million barrels a day, down to about 500,000. It's come off its lows. Here's the thinking. We get Maduro and his people out, whether, however that is, okay? We then help try to rebuild the country's infrastructure, including oil infrastructure. Take a few million barrels a day of oil by them, of course, not take, from Venezuela, and thus rely less on Iran and or Russia. So here's the question. How quickly could we potentially turn around the Venezuelan oil sector?

As you mentioned, pre-Chavez, 4 million barrels. They're lucky if they crack 900,000 at this point. But there's been a massive degradation of the capacity of the national oil company, PEDAVSA. Thousands of people have left the country who worked for PEDAVASA. Infrastructure is terrible. The country's massively indebted. Six million arms in circulation there. This is a post-conflict situation, almost. So the question is, if we are able to get Medora out and bring in, for example, Nobel Prize winner Machado as the new head of state, how quickly can this sector be rebuilt? What are we talking about in terms of immediate production gains if we pull off sanctions? Is it a couple hundred thousand?

No way. Because I would imagine, and you tell me that the infrastructure and equipment, Lake Maracaibo, it's very salty, there's a lot of salt air. It's got to be rusted and just there's no infrastructure improvements. So I think falling apart. The question is, like, it's going to be a long road back for Venezuela. The question is, can you get a couple hundred thousand out of sanctions relief? The path back to the kind of million barrel-a-day gains, it's a long road back.

Because here's, okay, so oil's up. Oil may be the only thing up today, to be honest with, the oil's up a little bit today, but it's still below 60. Oil and gas stocks, they tend to trade with the price of oil. I know you're not a stock analyst. But if you're in this camp where you believe that we've reached near a bottom in oil prices longer term, because of lack of investment that we just talked about, maybe there's a play longer term for energy. Well, it's an interesting question.

You talk about lack of investment. I think in the near term, the interesting question is there a lack of spare capacity. And we talk about Venezuela, potential U.S. military operations there. I think the thing to watch is November 21. Like, that's the launch date for our sanctions on the two key Russian oil exporters.

Ross NAFTA and look oil, full blocking sanctions. Do we see a significant drop in Russian exports? Are we talking about a million to a million and a half of Russian barrels unable to find a home after November 21? Okay, hold on. We just talked about November 19th. Happy Envidia day, by the way. Okay. So what's November 21st? I don't know that's the Russian sanction day, but what are the possible options that could happen that day? So the question is, do we move forward full sanctions on Rossneft and Lecoil? No sanctions waivers. Now, some countries are asking for waivers. Hungary is asking for a waiver. Iraq is asking for a waiver because look oil is the main operator of West Kornat 2.

In Iraq. In Iraq, it's a field that is 488,000 barrel a day of production. Questions about will that field be able to continue to produce after November 21 if look oil is forced out? We already have the central bank of Iraq, the state marketer, unable to sort of do key transactions with look oil in advance of those sanctions. So what you just said is so important, and it's, We'll call it WBI, wonky, but important, because it is a little bit in the weeds or the tumbleweed, I suspect, being in northern Iraq. What you just said is that luke oil is basically running a 480,000 barrel a day operation in northern Iraq. If full U.S. sanctions kick in, it would effectively prevent Iraq from legally, that's a key word, though, selling to luke oil.

400,000 barrels a day, folks, would make it one of the top five refineries in the United States. It would be one of the biggest refinery and oil operations in the world. world. If that's cut off, who makes up that gap? Well, that's, again, why when you start adding up the barrels, and Iraq oil report is doing terrific reporting on the West Corner 2 situation, we're already expecting reliance in India to basically say, we're not going to take these barrels. We're expecting Chirpas in Turkey to say no, Sino-Peck, CMPC, scaling back. That's a million to a million and a half. But what we weren't sort of having on our sort of, you know, bingo card was, what about fields that look oil operates globally?

So what does that mean, again, for fields in Iraq? When there was a question about would Gunvor buy the look oil assets, people thought, well, Gunvor will run it. Well, Gunvor was blocked from buying the look oil assets. So the question is, is somebody going to step in and buy the look oil assets and they run up to November 21? Who's going to buy the luke oil assets? I know. There has been.

I mean, what country is going to, I mean, honestly, step in and buy Russian assets and face the ire of the entire American and probably European government. I mean, Treasury already blocked the gunvore sale. So the question is, if you are sitting and you're the Iraqi government and you are taking a strict interpretation of the sanctions on November 21, is look all out and is that field basically not producing in the near term. All right. Well, I do know that the newest and I believe the largest American aircraft carrier is now reportedly,

because the Navy won't confirm it, pretty close. to Venezuela. That's a story to watch. There's something going on, folks. That is something to watch. Halema Croft, you're always something to watch. Thank you. By the way, my Venezuelas oil. I'm wearing the covers.

No, literally, it just, I don't know how, like random. It was just had no idea. It works out that way. Halema Croft, thank you very much. All right, so we're going to focus more on Chips and AI in just one second with our friend Christina Ports and Avelas, who is furiously joining us on set right now. But here's how the market setup is going. And I know we get all the attention on the NASDAQ because most of you probably own it or own part of it.

But the small caps, they're actually the worst performer in the market today. Small caps much more tied to domestic economic outcomes and Fed rate cuts. If the Fed does not cut rates in December, small cap stocks could be hurt more. And that stock is down 2.7 or that index is down 2.7%. All right. we did TV magic. We just swapped out Halima Croft

for Christina Portsnevelas in 14 seconds. Thank you, Halima, because it's nice and warm. This is the magic of television, also my ability to ad lib, you're welcome. Let's talk about Nvidia. Invita's down 4% right now, AMD down about the same.

These aren't huge, I don't want to like nobody's sounding some kind of an alarm. There's no special tonight that I'm aware of. But these are some of the bigger declines we've seen in a while. Yes. And there's a few narratives in the market, but overall, there seems to be this risk off and this concern about AI. You have several pieces in the FT today, just negatively speaking about data centers, open AI spending, but specifically with NVIDIA, it's usually, I should say usually last quarter to, right before earnings, which are out on next week, next Wednesday, you did have some choppiness, some selling heading into the print.

So that could be one factor for NVIDIA. Also, Microsoft, there's a Bloomberg headline as well as a podcast that came out yesterday talking about Microsoft building. own chips. So, you know, that's competition because Microsoft would work closely with Broadcom and that's competition for Invidia. So that's just possibly weighing on the name. For other names within the tech space and chip space, you had Kioxia, which is a Japanese memory maker overnight. They were one of the best tech names out there. That stock was up about 694% year-to-date in Japan. They came out with weaker earnings, and that weighed negatively on American memory names. Who is Kiyoxia? Why are we talking about it? Sounds like a blood pressure

medication. No, it is a... I'm on Kiyoxia. I can't go for that hike. It's separated from Tashiba. So it's a big memory maker based in Japan. Their earnings came out that weighed negatively on Micron and Sandisk. Those two names, Sandisk actually trading worse than Micron at the moment. So these are narratives that specifically

focused to certain names. But overall, the overarching theme is this concern about AI spent. On Monday, we had Corweave on around 4.30 at night. Correve's earnings, they reduced their guide because of a delay in construction, more specifically a third-party data center developer. And so that narrative, too, fed in to this risk-off mode

that we're seeing across the market. Momentum names trading lower, meme stocks trading lower right now. You mentioned the Russell and smaller cap, the highly levered names with the December probability. They're all domestic sales or whatever. I know we got full-team coverage as markets. We've got Steve Kovac as well, who I believe, there you, Steve Kovac, there you are. How are you, Steve Kovac? Apple is actually. holding up relatively well today. I almost wonder if Apple's kind of viewed as like a, like a, for lack of a better term, like a utility stock where it's like, okay, you know what, Apple's not really an AI play, or is it?

We'll get to the AI things in a second here, but what's really been driving the stock since the summer, Brian, or actually since September, let's call it, is the momentum in the iPhone sales. And we got that surprising guidance to the upside for the December quarter. That's going to be a very strong double-digit percentage growth quarter. On top of that, as if we're looking at Apple here, what, down a third of a percent or so, and you're looking, okay, what's next? What's the next catalyst besides artificial intelligence? I'm thinking a lot about the Supreme Court case and this idea that tariffs will be refunded.

Now, obviously, we know the relief and they will get for tariffs in the future. But keep in mind, Brian, Apple has paid the government a few billion dollars already so far this year in tariff costs. And so there's really a potential here if there is refunds from the Supreme Court, and that's what they order. The government's going to have to write Apple a very large check for all the tariffs it's been paying. So that is one thing. And then on the AI front, you're right. That is still the big lingering question. Tim Cook told us just a few weeks ago that they are on track to put out that big update of Siri, the artificial intelligence version.

We're getting so much more reports and evidence that that is going to be a partnership with Google. We know Apple tried to build the artificial intelligence itself. That didn't work out. Now they're going to partner with Google or some other third party in order to make that happen. So those are the things to really watch here. On the Microsoft front, let's talk about that for a second. I know we mentioned it a little bit. Next week, Ignite.

That is their big conference they hold every year. And this is where they're really going to have to make a case for selling their AI tools co-pilot. That means the enterprise customers are all going to be packed into this Moscone Center out there in Sanford. Cisco and get their sales pitch of why they need to buy copilot. We haven't really seen any significant evidence, though, Brian, that companies are buying co-pilot. Instead, they like to build their own AI agents and own AI chatbot tools internally instead of paying Microsoft 30 bucks per month per user for co-pilot.

So it's going to be interesting to see what that pitch is like, Brian. All right. So we have Nvidia Day on November 19th. We've got Russia Sanctions Day. And of course, Steve, you were mentioning the Supreme Court in tariffs, which is another thing to watch. Steve Kovac, thank you very much. And folks, we have talked about this for months on this show, the risk, the potential market risk that the Supreme Court comes out and says, guess what?

All the Trump tariffs, they're actually illegal under sort of the emergency power plan. And as such, you either have to stop them and or refund money back to companies that have already paid in them. That's kind of a soft, I don't want to say a black swan because we're talking about it. Therefore, it's something we know about maybe a gray swan, if you will, where it is another thing out there. There's something else to watch. We talked about a lot at the top of the show. We still got Christina Parts of the Nevelace here is Oracle. Again, Christina, I'm not picking on Oracle.

But when I look at if somebody had to say, what is a stock that really represents AI, data centers, power, all the above going up, I would say it is Oracle. Oracle stock down 30% in a month. The credit default swaps, as we've talked about, that is the risk of default. There is no risk of default. but the risk is rising, and Oracle is now 63% from its average analyst price target. So the credit default swaps that you talked about, and hats off to Sima Modi, our colleagues, she was reporting on this yesterday, but they actually hit a multi-year high just yesterday, the five-year level, the debt for that.

And so what is that telling us that people are betting that a lot of the debt, first of all, for Oracle has climbed astronomically to build out? So that has been a major concern. Also, a lot of headlines that you see. So people may not read the entire article, and they just see the... TLDR, too long didn't read. Yes, exactly. They'll see the headline reading that Oracle needs to take out even more debt

or Corrieve needs to extend its debt, you know, to keep building out these infrastructure systems. And so that's why it's adding to the narrative of the sell-off that specifically for Oracle's, their level of debt and the fact that the five-year credit default swaps have increased, and so that's telling you there's a level of risk, and people are now betting against all these AI plays. Even just internally, and maybe I shouldn't,

We were discussing how can we report on this going forward? What is the equivalent to the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis? Oh, okay. Hold on. That is somebody who was doing that back then. That's a big jump. No, I know. The reason why is this is the thought process for a journal, us here in the background, is Michael Burry's comments.

And so he's making these comparisons. So how could you bet against all of these AI plays in their level of debt? In 2006, I told my bosses about it. They ignored it. And now, not here. 2007, I finally did a primetime special, wrote, produced, anchored, produced. It took about a year and a half to get anybody's attention on it. Then, of course, everybody

became an expert. But are you suggesting that's kind of where we are now? Oh, I'm not suggesting that at all. I was just trying to read. What are you suggesting? What are you not? Michael Burry, he's going to be, you know, revealing this big thing on November 25th, and perhaps it has to do with the depreciation of hardware and all that. I know, are you getting like this? Can I have your pen? Are you getting angry? No, I'm not. I'm just trying to keep a mental, keep talking. I'm going to Right down the mental calendar.

November 25th is some type of big reveal from him. And what is he going to, is it the life of, the useful life of many of these pieces of hardware? Is it the depreciation cycle that he claims has been, you know, fuddled with a lot of, I don't know if I just made up a word, but a lot of these companies are just making up and changing the depreciation cycle for these chips. And so that could increase their profits. So there's a lot to talk about this month.

And that is just overarching theme. It's adding to the fear right now. And we're going to bring him Jeff Kilbert. Can you read that at all? Is my writing? I can't read that. I can't read my own writing. So he has NVIDIA on there November 19th and November 21st.

No, no, here's what we're here. So bring in, let's go ahead. Let's hold on. Stay here. Let's bring in Jeff Kilberg as well. Jeff Kilberg, CEO of KKM Financial. Jeff, you correctly called. The last time we had a market drop, he said, buy the dip.

It worked out. It paid off. I want to kind of go through my crummy list here. Or maybe you can do this, Christina. There's four things. I'm not even Van der White. There's four. No.

I can't read my own writing. Four things. We got the SCOTUS decision on tariffs. We don't know when that's coming out. November 19th is Nvidia Day. November 21st, 21st is Russia Sanction Day. And now November 25th is Michael Burry Day. When is Jeff Kilberg Day?

What are you watching? Well, let me go through that list real quick, Sally, because I think we have a calm, cool, collected head right now. First and foremost, number one, the government does not write checks to anyone. So any tariff verdict is not going to come out. The government collects checks no matter what the administration is, no matter what side of the aisle. Secondly, I think when you see the Nvidia Day, that's priced in.

Let's remember, Nvidia is $100 higher. And then when it was on April 8th on Liberation Lows, I know 25th, November is something coming out. I think my wife's birthday is November 15th. There's a lot of dates there. But the date that matter, Sully, December 10th. That's the Fed Day. Everyone was anticipating a rate cut. One month ago, those odds of a 25 base point rate cut was 96%.

Pretty strong. Right now it's about 47%. So we've seen a lot of feds speak this week trying to soften their stance. Goldman is still in the camp that we're going to give a December cut and two cuts in Q1 in 2026. But I think this is acute volatility. This is like the third largest intraday move in the VIX, believe it or not. I know we had 150% spike of the Vicks back in April, but today up over 20% from an intraday perspective, that is acute volatility. People who are not hedged are certainly seen situations. Mr. Options Pitt. And by the way you need to know when your wife's birthday is. Don't say, I think, it's November 15th.

There we go. Happy birthday, babe. There you go. What do you think the spike in the VIX? And the VIX is not high, but it's spiking 20% more than it was yesterday. What does that tell Jeff Kilberg? And that there's a little fear and there's a bifurcated view out there, Sully. This is the most hated rally.

But let's take a step back and look at the S&P 500 here in just above 6,700. That is still 40%, 4.0 above that 4802. when every analyst, east of the Hudson River, we're tripping over themselves the lower their 2025 S&P 500 targets. So I think right now you have to pull out your shopping list. I look at these blue chip tangible names, the names I own in the Essential 40 ETF.

We're talking about CME Group, Berkshire, Horizon, waste management. Some of these blue chip non-sexy names, people are hoarding and buying those. Yes, we are seeing some profit-taking. Oracle, for example, still up 37% in year-to-date, after being up 60% in 2024, but when you see these AI themes kind of come to a halt, people are just taking profits. This is not a doomsday scenario. This is actually normal. We've become so conditioned, Sully, to the market just going up a little bit every day. That's the problem.

Jeff, originally I was supposed to come on set and talk about retail traders. Just last week alone, we actually did not see the buy-the-tip mentality that we've seen over the last little while. And I know that you're talking about maybe just some profit-taking right now, and the retail traders are huge portion of this market. Is that not a little bit concerning that even that group, that cohort is a little bit, you know, more risk-averse going into ETFs, going into fixed-income ETFs? That's a defensive play, is it not? No, that's a great point you bring up, but I can't tell you how many advisors. I was just at the Avenue, wealth management, in Athens, Georgia on Monday. And they can't wait for a pullback. Why? Because they want to

allocate more to U.S. equities. They're looking to get out of that fixed income. Because that fixed income, Christina, is only yielding 4%. So I think there's a lot of people poised, but I do have to remember that we had a parabolic move from April. We haven't really seen a reprieve. We had a little bit of a pullback last Friday again today, but I think there's a short lid. I think people are chomping at the bit to allocate and get diversified away from the Mag 7. Permanently? Or just right now? No, no, no, no. By no means. Look at even today, so look at the rotation in the Mag 7. Apple, it was positive all day until about an hour ago. So you're seeing some of the laggards in the mag seven or invidia just some profit taking but invidia is still

a hundred dollars higher i keep on going back to that comment because of the volatility once it went over five trillion dollars you saw a lot of people celebrate that it went up to two and twelve dollars i think it's very natural and healthy for it to have a pullback a back and 30 seconds sorry to jump in on you jeff november 19th invidia earnings i know december 10th the fed they're going to be great but invidia earnings matter i would imagine they may is it possible we have increased volatility ahead of that? Yes, it is possible. I think you're going to have a black leather jack on. It's going to be calm, cool, and collecting the four guidance is going to be strong once again from NVIDIA. Final comment. Christina Parts the Nevelas. If Nvidia does well,

that could be a concern that there's overspending. If Nvidia doesn't do well, then whoa. We know the numbers are going to be big. I think it's just a question of, are they going to be good or are they going to be great? I don't know. And guess what? The show's over. We have eight seconds, but the market sell-off continues. Nasdaq's down over 2%. Folks, big final Our trading ahead with Scott the gang. Closing bell begins right now.