Power Lunch - Nasdaq tries for 13 positive days in a row 4/17/26

Episode Date: April 17, 2026

President Trump and Iran's foreign minister say the Strait of Hormuz is open. Kpler's Matt Smith joins with his thoughts on the state of the oil industry. Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank CIO Chris Hyzy and Interactive Brokers' Steve Sosnick join with their market outlook.     Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And happy Friday markets soaring after Iran basically said the war is over and they will not attack any commercial ships. Welcome to Power Lunch. I am Brian Sullivan. Kelly will be back here on Monday. That news, rocketing stocks. We are at record highs. The S&B 500 crossing 7100 for the first time ever. The Dow rallying 1,000 points. The NASDAQ. It says, hold my beer. It's going for an incredible 13 straight days of gains. That is something it is not done. since Michael Jackson topped the music charts. And on that news, oil crashing the June contractable WTI and Brent down over 10%. That is also sending bond yields down as well.

If you didn't gather, folks, it's a big day. It's a very busy day today. So let's start with a stat that we hope will make you smarter. Here you go. If the S&P 500 closes above 7,021 and 30, oddly specific, it will have gained 3% this week. Okay, why do you care? Why is that relevant?

Because if it does do that, it would be the third straight week that the S&P 500 has jumped 3% or more. Three weeks, 3%. That's only ever happened two other times since 1980. And the big difference, those other two times, 1982 and 2020 were after, or sort of in bare markets. And as your first guest today, we'll tell you, we did not even enter a correction before this rally. Here now on set with us is CIO of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank,

Chris Heisey, an interactive broker's chief strategist, Steve Sosnik. Steve, that was your stat. Yes. So thank you very much. I'll take random stats for 600, please, Steve, because that was a terrific stat. Thank you. But all that aside, does it mean anything?

Does it matter? Oh, when you get very sort of curve-fitted statistics, like this has happened twice in a lifetime or this happens once every 20 years, they're obviously not great statistical precedents. But the thing that I would say here is I gave that in because I wanted to point out how unusual it is for the markets to have a rally this big when it isn't as the result of a major bear market exit. But 1982 was when Volcker basically said, we declared victory against inflation. And so that was, of course, a great reason of rally. We've been in basically a grinding bear market most of the 70s, early 80s. 2020, that was the May-June period when basically the stimulus started to kick in. The quantitative easing kicked up.

So, again, that was both bare markets. This was a bit more of a, you know, this was a bit more of a 7% downtime. I think we got down at 9% intraday on S&P. There are some more examples in NASDAQ. get back to the way. And so, Chris, I would imagine that your clients a month ago were kind of like calling you up saying, Chris, you know, markets are down seven or not, they're not down 17 or 27 percent, but 7 percent these days feels like a lot of pain. It was a scary time. It still is in some ways. Did they go from something, something to fear of missing out? Like, did they, did you tell us,

like, stay calm and invest on? Well, that's usually what we say when the fundamentals are what they are, which is still very attractive. I think. to your point, Brian, it was fear of being in phobia to FOMO. Now, no one really knows when the FOMO is going to start to happen again, but if fear of missing out happens at a time when fundamentals are good and the bare market, as Steve was saying, is in the headlines, but not in the trend lines, that's when you feel comfortable with conviction to suggest buy-on weakness, even in the face of such uncertain times geopolitically. Well, I would imagine some of the people that did get out are now feeling a little bit left out.

Guys, sit tight for one second. We do some breaking news, and maybe you'll get your response. I don't even know what it is. We've got Federal Reserve breaking news. Governor Chris Waller speaking in Alabama. Steve Leasman, what is he saying? Not entirely along with the joyous mood on Wall Street. He does say he would be more inclined to cut rates now and focus on labor market weakness if the conflict in the Middle East resolves quickly.

However, if it runs longer, the Fed may have to maintain the policy at the current. target. Now, note, he does not mention hiking rates. He says if inflation was that way, those to the labor market, that's what would concern him. High inflation in a weak labor market, he says, would be very complicated for a policymaker. And the oil price hike combined with tariffs, that's what he's really concerned about, this double barrel issue. He talks about it could lead to a more lasting increase in inflation. Talks about the sequence of transitory shocks is a reason for the Fed to be caution in looking through the oil price increase. And he says the increase in inflation could compare with the shock from the pandemic.

And he thinks, this is interesting, Brian, for you to think about, he believes markets are undervaluing the risk that the conflict continues. And I'll leave it there, Brian, but it's this idea of piling on one transitory shock after another and whether the Fed ought to look through it. Well, I think that's the perfect place to leave it, Steve Leasman. We really appreciate it because back with our panel here and Chris Heise, I mean, listen, I don't want to take anything away from today or the last couple of days, last couple of weeks, have rallied, there's optimism that this may be over. We've got some positive signs. There's no

question, but it's Iran. We don't really know who's kind of running the show. Is there a level of risk that you're still tolerating for your clients now? Well, I think the level of risk is how much does that translate to a true shock versus a shock in our minds right now? Now, that's in terms of supply shock, particularly around energy. If that translates over into higher prices, input prices that last, not just in the United States, but around the world, last enough to dent economic growth that changes the profit story, then I'd get more worried. So it doesn't appear that... It doesn't sound like you believe, at least from what we've seen, that that's enough to dent

the profit story. Correct. There's too much going on in nominal GDP, one of which is a little bit higher inflation than we would all like, mixed with decent real GDP, a consumer. consumer that's still resilient, despite the worries, CAP-X that's still going up well above average, and then productivity that's hitting the cost line with margins expanding even in the face of higher input prices,

it's really hard to change that story. Because, Steve, everybody that, every smart person that came on this network, this show, other shows, pretty much to a person at the beginning of this kind of said the same thing, that it's the duration of the war and the inflationary supply shock, that will matter. Yes.

That's the key to the markets. We are, what, five or six weeks, seven weeks max sort of into this? In your mind, if it ended today, would those seven weeks be enough to change the earnings picture, the inflationary picture in America? It depends to what extent stuff really starts moving through the straight, and to what extent production capacity has been taken offline. for a long period of time. Because supply shock is not over.

I'm confident saying it, let's be clear. It's a month long to ship from the Strait of Hormuz to Asia or parts of South America. There is no end to the supply shock tomorrow because some Iranian leader says it's all clear. Absolutely. And that's part of the issue. So you've also lost production capacity in Qatar, in Kuwait, and some other places. That's not going to come online instantaneously. So I would continue to look.

And I was looking all along at sort of, oil futures out six months to a year. And they're still pricing in higher levels even after today's decline. So that's telling you there is a bit of an oil shock. Now, as far as the earnings picture goes to Chris's point, in many ways, the CFO's got the greatest gift of all over the last few months, and that is the best excuse possible, right? I mean, you could, you could blame, you would have had to blame things on the weather for the first six weeks of the year, but now you've got this supply shock and you could say, I've got, I can't do guidance, it's too murky. It's, it's, it's, I don't mean to minimize the conflict by the need.

No, no, but I get what you're saying for the second quarter. When we hear the first quarter numbers, Chris, and they come out and they give their numbers, and then they give their guidance. I think it's an excellent point that nobody, and they're telling the truth. I don't know if anybody really knows what the impact's going to be because we're a couple weeks into the second quarter, and the supply shock will only hit one month out of three in the first quarter. Right. And it clearly matters, right?

There's a lot of strategists out there that says, well, the expenditures that are impacted by higher input costs through higher energy costs are much less than they ever used to be. We know that. And it still matters, but it is dramatically lower than 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. That's point one. So the actual overall collateral impact could be less. And I think that's what the market's telling us. The second thing is, why is the bond market so calm?

We have Rick Santelli coming up in a second. We should probably just maybe just bring him into the conversation because that's his area. But I'm going to give a, and maybe we can patch in Rick now. I'm going to get, he is good. He's there? Look at you say it. And there it is. Rick Santelli, I say your name.

And you magically appear behind a graphic. So Chris Heise asks a good point. You know, this spot right here on the sebo floor is reserved for optimists who were willing to take some risk to make some reward. because once we wait for the final solution, the trade's going to be gone. It's like a horse out of the barn. There'll be a skeleton out in the financial pasture. So I commend those patriotic Americans who believed in the U.S. Because this is turning out well.

Is it rubber stamped and sealed? No. But look at what the market's doing, Brian. We consider interest rates. First of all, look at a six-hour chart of two's and tens, oil in tens. tracking very closely. Now, if you look at a two-week chart of tens, there's something fascinating going on.

You ask why it's so well-behaved. It really is, because it's basically been holding in the low 4-20s. So that is very good. And even now as it sits of 424, we're down about seven base points on today, down eight bases points on the week. I think what we are setting up for in the Treasury complex is the long game.

I completely agree. Debt and deficits are out of control. But I have a feeling. that growth could turn out to be out of control. There's no way we ever stop spending in this country. But what we can do is grow our economy. And look at the difference between the size of our economy and Europe's over the last 15 years. And to me, that's the whole game.

So you optimists out there, I think we have a shot to close above 50K today, but we'll wait and see. Wow. And by the way, Chris Heise here on set has a question for you, Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick. I appreciate the note there. I appreciate the optimism, the energy for sure. I want to know in your expert experience, looking at the Treasury market, looking at credit spreads, does the bond market see a problem with what everybody's worried about?

No, sees no problems. As a matter of fact, as it sits right now, we're up less, less than 10 basis points for the entire year. We closed at 417. We're at 424. How much trouble is that spell? We're lower in yield than we were last summer. This is a really amazing treasury market. Is it going to stay that way?

No. What's the real test is? Is that the day before the conflict, 10-year yields closed right around what? 394? That was the cycle low yield. We couldn't have picked the worst time to exaggerate the up move when the conflict began.

So when it is ultimately settled, which side of about 4 and a quarter we settle on will mean a lot. If we're above it, we're going to be going above four and a half. If we're below it, we'll retest those pre-conflict lows. Well, Rick, I hope to be there in that spot for the optimist. You and all my friends at the Sebo, and I'm going to be carrying a really hot, fresh hamburger because I know you're going to win the bet, and you're going to be right. Have a great weekend.

You bring the hamburger. I'll bring the flag. How's that? And I'll bring an eagle. It's just going to come along with me. There we go. The Eagles, Chris. Don't get all excited. Thank you very much, Rick.

All right, so let's go back to it. And I'm going to give you another, I'm going to see your stat at the beginning and raise you one, 50%. That's the gain for the NASDAQ over the past 12 months. I know we've been rightfully worried and focused on what happens with Iran for the last seven weeks. But the market has been just ripping, gone from about 16 to 24,000. There were some concerns, though, about AI spending earnings. Are those now back on the? the table or in your mind, are those also gone or were they never, should have never been there

in the first place? Well, I think to some extent, they were not ridiculous because we are seeing a change in the sort of in the fundamental nature of the balance sheets of a lot of the big hyperscalers, right? They went from having, you know, almost a magical balance sheet of being cat, you know, they spun off a ton of cash. They had, you know, their earnings power is phenomenal. Now they're borrowing a lot of money. They're becoming asset heavy. That's not necessarily a thing. They can continue to make money, but I think some of the magic dust is worn off. The other thing that I would say in terms of the rally, I started to allude to before, there are other examples I found later after I said your producer of the first set of notes about NASDAQ. And there are more examples

of NASDAQ happening. Unfortunately, the vast majority of them happened between 98 and 2000. The last one of that period was literally... That's not a good time reference. We're supposed to feel good today. Well, when it happened in 98 and 99, it kept going. When it happened, you know, late 99 in 2000, that was the end. And then it didn't happen again. It happened again after 9-11. There was a bit of a rally. It happened again at 2002.

And I know you guys are going to stick around gratefully and come back, but I want to leave it with you, Chris, before. We'll bring you back in a few minutes. They're not going to go away. And I don't think this Iran thing is over yet. But that said, let's sort of move past it. What's the next most important thing then on your? and your team's watch list. We're going to start to worry about another thing,

and it's going to be the midterms. This is what typically happens somewhere late. Say it ain't so. Say it ain't so, Chris. Well, I think we've got to look past that, too. That's not something. That worry is not something that can actually dent and turn around, and I'm going to use the analogy,

turn around this big ship we call the U.S. economy. It's not enough to turn that around and go the other. It's going to take our focus, and we do know that historically in midterm election years, the markets do tend to go down, what, 15 to 18 percent on average because people get jumpy. Here's where it gets interesting, though. That is, and as Steve said this before, you have to be careful with numbers because there are pockets of the market that have already done that. And the structure of the market today, when you could actually go from a correction almost to an 11-day rally to a new all-time high, fastest ever done since 1928, more companies are,

technology companies today, not just the tech sector. So there's this, all this mechanisms within the market that history will tell you what to look for, but it doesn't always repeat. All right. Well, we're not done with you guys just yet. We dragged you out to New Jersey, so we're going to welcome you back in a few more minutes. If you guys are generous enough to stick around, Chris and Steve, thank you both very much. All right. After the short break, oil prices plummeting again on hopes that ship traffic in the strait will soon get back to normal. But is the coast really clear. We'll discuss that with Malimacroff, Matt Smith, more. All right, you know this. It is the map that every one of you should be keeping a close eye on.

Of course, what else? Straight of Hormuz. I know, I'm tired of saying it too. Stocks are surging, oil is down, President Trump, and the Iranian foreign minister declaring the strait is, quote, open. But there are some caveats. The first, President Trump says the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete. We are nowhere near that right now. And media affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and take this with a grain of salt, because remember, it is Iran, does warn that if the U.S. Naval Blockade continues, the Strait of Hormuz will be reclosed. Again, I'm always wary of quoting anything from Iranian state media, but that's what they're saying.

There does seem to be a few conflicting messages, but obviously look at the stock market, look at the oil market, look at the bond market. They're reacting as if the coast is clear. So let's try to kind of clear this up. It's bringing Halima Croft, Globalhead of Commodity, strategy at RBC Capital Markets. CNBC contributor joining us on the CNBC Newsline, because I know you're traveling, Halima. Is the coast clear? Well, I think President Trump continues to win the sentiment game when it comes to the oil market. The fact that the Iranian oil minister was out on social media saying, straight-of-Hormuz open for business, that's all the market needed to see.

They can again start pricing and end of conflict. But these caveats that you mentioned are critical. And the IRGC also said that you have to coordinate with them, their naval command, and go through their navigational shipping lane, in order to proceed through the waterway. So that's a pretty important caveat. And a number of shippers have already come out and expressed trepidation. D.E.O. the Norwegian Shipping Association out saying he's concerned about mines.

He's concerned about how does he coordinate with Iran. So I don't think the coast is clear. But I think it's continuing the trend of market participants saying they're going to call time. Yeah, and I want to be clear on, and we want to be optimistic today. We're not being sour grapes. The signs are pointing to good news. news. But when I hear the Iranian foreign ministers say one thing, and then somebody purporting to represent the Iranian Guard, and I, again, I'm very skeptical of any of this because this is a

country who some of their people, they'll massacre their own people on mass. So I'm not, I'm not akin to trusting those types of folks, but we are hearing Halima some conflicting messages. Who do we, do we even know who to trust right now? Well, I think we should trust the shipping executives. And I think we should really, be paying attention to what they're saying about the security of the waterway and their comfort level going through at this juncture. And we have to pay attention to the status of the talks. There has been some discussion about talks resuming as early as Sunday in Islamabad. Will J.D. Vance be leading those talks again? Really unclear right now, the composition of the

U.S. delegation. And also, we still don't know the deal details when it comes to issues like Uranium and Richmond. President Trump will say one thing. that they're giving it all up. And then the Iranians continue to insist on their fundamental rights to enrich uranium. So we don't know how close we are to bridging what had been pretty significant gaps. Yeah. Well said, and I think that's perfect advice. Watch the ships.

Watch the shipping execs. They're talking to insurance executives. They're the ones that know exactly what's going on. Halima Croft. Appreciate that. Let's get back to your Friday. Thank you. I'm sure very, very busy.

So on that note, you are starting to see. more ships cross the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders on. Now, those include that boat right there. It's a very special ship. It's called the Celestial Discovery, and it's a cruise ship. And that's special because that is the first passenger vessel to cross the strait since the war began. The ship departed Dubai today after spending about 47 days docked. That is a notable and potentially positive sign that conditions.

are beginning to normalize. Let's dig in a little bit more on what's going on. Matt Smith. He is Director of Commodity Research at Kipler. They're the company that own marine traffic.

So you're probably living on this, Matt. Map, Matt, he said. Easy for me to say. It's been a long week. Matt Smith, are we starting to see ship traffic somewhat normalize at all?

No, Brian. No. I'm sorry, but it's not, right? So you have seen that cruise ship. Now, by all means, that's the first one to pass through, as you mentioned, since the start of the conflict. So that is a positive thing. But the result today has essentially been winners on both sides, right? President Trump has got all prices plummeting.

He's, like, feeling fantastic about things. The flip side is that Iran still has all the leverage here. The straight of Hormuz remains closed. You've essentially got the straight of Iran, right? So it's basically this safe passage where they essentially, they're not collecting tolls there any more. say, or they're saying they won't, but they're acting like a bouncer. So they're the ones that are going to be able to say, okay, you can come in. No, you do want, right? And so this is the thing. You're going to have these vessels. There was about 10 to 15 that was passing through over the last

few weeks, right? So it's a laborious process. It's going to take time for these tankers to get through there. So really in the grand scheme of things, the numbers look like they're going to remain low here. Do we have any idea? Maybe we don't. It's fine. Do we have any idea how many ships are running this with their transponders off, basically, you know, turning off the lights and running through at night. You've got the Iranian tankers that are doing that. So you've got some of those there. So that's it. But like, otherwise, we don't know if they are doing it at night. But the thing is, we don't know if the straight is mined or not. So, you know, the Iranians know where those are, so they're okay to pass through. But everybody else, you just basically playing a game of chicken,

right? And so that kind of base case assumption is you're not really getting very many of those without their AIS on. Yeah, it is. And let's not forget that there are two and maybe more U.S. naval vessels enforcing that blockade, which means if any ship tries to go to where you were mentioning, they may get fired upon that that risk does exist. When will Matt Smith and your team be convinced that things are truly better? What do you need to see? Yeah, sure. So we're watching what we call are the first movers. So essentially you're going to have those like larger operators that are going to start to look to move through if there is the conditions there to do so. So once we see some of those go through, that will give confidence for others to pass through as well. And so it's really once we start to see some of these bigger players taking on that move,

and then that will encourage others to do it. And then other see safe, passive way. And then that's when we start to see things getting back to normal. But really, we're still a long way from that, Brian, right? We've only had eight crossings just today. And all of those have been empty as well, four dry bulk, a couple of LPG tankers. That's propane. And then one tanker, actually, just a short sea tanker has just gone through and then gone back again.

And so really the situation... That's just weird crazy taker wants to press its luck. Like, what was that? Yeah, they're just a risk taker. No, I think what it is, Brian, is you've got a situation where that blockade isn't at the Strait of Hormuz, right? It's well outside of there. So even if we do see these tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, then they approach the blockade and then they are told or instructed or have the good knowledge to turn around and go back. Yeah, and when we start to see a lot of those

red dots, red lines, red arrows move on your maps, then we'll know. For now, the news is good, the actual ship traffic, not as good, but it's early. Matt Smith, Kipler, always appreciate your views. Thank you very much. Thank you. Good time to say. Remind you to sign up for our energy-related newsletter called Power Insider Weekly Peace, key news, meeting power players and more. How can you sign up?

Go to that QR code. Go to that web page right there. CnBC.com slash power newsletter. A lot more to do. And a huge thanks, by the way, to all the people that have already signed up, the reaction has been really wonderful. All right. Still ahead.

The software shock turning into a software surge in just over about a week, is it about to take off even more? Dan Ives here on set. All right, welcome and welcome back. The stock market ripping today, the NASDAQ hitting another record high, and now on pace for its 13th straight days of gains. Now, some of the biggest winners lately today and this week were some of the most beaten down software stocks. Most of them are up double digits this week. The big software ETF, the IGV, up 15%. That makes this week the best week for that ETF since October of 2001. It was a long time ago. Your next guest just returned from a two-week trip to Asia for a check on AI demand.

Says he saw more bullish signs for the sector. Joining us, Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research, at Wed Bush. Number one, thanks for coming in because you must be spectacularly jet lag. But that's why coffee is great. And hopefully ours here is doing the trick. I'm sure you know people like to give you the business about being too optimistic. Now, you've been optimistic. You've also been right.

I mean, what you've said has occurred. Is there anything that you saw in your extensive Asia trip that tripped you up? I come away incrementally more bullish. More bullish. The reason is that if you look at demand in terms of what you see in Taiwan, relative to all the chip players, all the supply chain, demand's accelerated. I mean, we're not seeing any cracks from an AI buildout perspective, which means from an earnings

perspective, that's not just bullish for hardware players, the hyperscalers, the Microsofts, the Googles, the Amazon's. And ultimately, you talk about the software trade, that's where the ripple effect's going to be. So I just think this is a bright green light going into earnings season, everything we see from a demand perspective. And I think that's the key right now. It comes down to monetization. We come way in a million more bullish.

I want to combine your world and sort of the world I talk about a lot with energy Taiwan, South Korea, the places you were, Japan. They're right in the middle of this energy supply shock. Was that discussed at all? I mean, it had to have when it comes to producing semiconductors and stuff, it takes a lot of power. And they're worried about power right. Yeah. So right now, everything like helium being right front and center in terms of through the straight.

I mean, there's probably about a six to eight week, what I view is really reserved that they have. So the point is that when you think about supply perspective, there is no really concern that there's going to be supply issues over the next few months. Now, look, if this continues, of course, for months, you know, then that's a whole other situation. But I think it was calm and much more, I think, not fearful in terms of what we saw from a supply perspective. Demand clearly is what's accelerated. But I think you kind of look at this sort of combo, you felt very comfortable in terms of from a supply perspective. But they have the healing, they have the raw materials, they have the power they need now. And then I assume weeks to come.

I'd say it's going to take a couple weeks to get the new ships to there. I'd say three months. In my view, I think you have a few months until this would be some sort of panic situation. So I'm not going to call it Goldilocks. But I would just say that we're in a situation where I don't think that that's going to be anything in earning season, that you're going to start to see cracks start the form. Are there any companies you're watching more than any others in this earning season? I think it's really, look, software, and me and you've talked about,

I think that still is the most disconnected sell-off that I've seen in my career. You're starting to clearly see a huge rebound here. But it comes down to you look at Microsoft. You look at Amazon, the hyper-scale hours, because, When you think of everything that's playing out, hardware is where you've seen the success. Now, the hyperscalor is the software, you start the monization. I think Palantir is going to be one to look at. I think service now, you know, everything that McDermott's doing.

I think that's very important in terms of this is a barometer. Because, look, it goes back to the anthropic dark cloud fears over software. It's still there. You need to prove it out. But I think this is at least for tech. This is my, it's a third inning of this game in terms of A. Just the third inning. Top of the third one out.

Top of the third one out. I love it. We're going to let you get out and go to bed. I mean, do you not sleep? You just got off a plane from Asia and came straight here? I mean, I had some time to go home and get here. But it does speak to the point. You see the demand in Asia.

You don't see a lot of the bears from the 30th four of New York City office. And that's the power of getting on a plane and seeing this for your. That's what you do all the time. That's what you got. You got to just get on a plane and go and then eyeball it. Dan Ives, always appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right, coming up. You know, it's stocks ripping today, but should you buy the rally? If you haven't, do you buy into it now? One of our favorite traders is going to share his playbook for navigating this red hot market. Stick around. All right, welcome back with just over one hour trading today. And in the week, the Dow is up 900 points. The Russell 2,000 small caps. is up 2% today. By the way, it's up more than 10% this year. So today in this market rally, what's not working? Well, it's going to be energy.

It's the worst performing sector today. No surprise. Valero, Apache, Occidental Marathon Petroleum, all leading it lower as oil prices crash. Let's bring out Jay Wood's chief market strategies to freedom capital markets. Also back with us, Chris Heise and Steve Sosnik. Full table, full day.

Very appropriate. Jay, who's surprised that oil stocks are pulling back when oil's down 10%. Yeah, it's the worst drop since when. We had the biggest rally since, you know, years before. So these swings are going to be wild. The question is, when it stabilizes, is energy actually a good place to be? And I think it will be.

You look at these stocks, you look at the Exxons, the Chevrons, the Valeros. They were doing well with $55-60 oil. In fact, Exxon broke out when oil before this crisis started. So I think as these stocks dip and settle in, I don't think. think the worst is over just yet, but it's going to give the investor who missed out on that 40% gain in energy. Actually, he was up 40% at one point. A time to finally get into it.

Are we going to see the spikes? Are we going to see the volatility? I hope not, but it's not happening. And I want to be clear, like, if oil went from 65 to 85, we'd be bummed because we're like, oh, man, it's so high. It's now gone from 120 to 85, and everybody's happy because it's going in the other direction. That said, oil was high for one month of the first quarter, and now, you know, it's not. where it is a couple weeks into the second quarter,

any read on earnings or how these companies are going to deal with this? Well, on the earnings, as a technician, you're asking the wrong guy. I mean, the question is higher. How much are we higher for longer? Does it stabilize now at 80? Is that the new floor? Or can we get it back into the mid-70s and then go back to the way it was? As long as the straight is clogged and we've had this logjam,

it's not going to go much lower than this at this point in time. You don't think so. I watch your chip monitor all the time. Don't quote me back to me. But you don't, yeah, because I've said, I don't think 65 is in the cards any time. No. Absent some sort of severe global recession and oversupply shock. No, this has been about knee-jerk reactions.

And we saw it, we saw this market. The script has flipped now. So as someone that was watching the slow and steady downtrend, these crazy headlines, we never got that washout. Sentiment, all-time record lows. was a tell as a technician that the bottoms are low. But markets bottom in times of uncertainty. And Steve, stocks go up and down because there's more buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers. I mean, that's kind of it. And there's usually a reason behind that. Have you seen an interactive

brokers any change in sentiment on the energy stock to this magnitude? And the energy stock's not as much. They never really rose and got into the most active list of the stuff that I follow. No one likes them so much. No, no, not that. They're not in video. DeN. Ives was talking about the sexy stuff. We're talking about less sexy stuff right now. But to be fair, what our customers were doing was they were very aggressive buyers actually into the end of March and the beginning of April. And they've actually gotten more or less to the sell side a certain amount. We had, you know, of the 25 most active stocks in our list, nine were to the cell side over the last week.

That's very unusual for us because usually you don't, usually they're almost always net buyers, at least have been for years. So the customers are, they did buy low, sell high. Maybe some of them regret selling it a little earlier. But again, the question I get from investors all the time is what the F is going on out here right now? Easy now. We had a little Kevin Hart moment yesterday. Take it easy now. I stopped with that.

I think, by the way, you gave me my tagline for my new newsletter, Power Insider, less sexy than Nvidia. Chris, I know your clients probably never asked you about energy stocks, mostly on mass. Until about seven weeks ago, are you hearing, do you have a take on that sector? We're very similar to what Jay and Steve were just talking about. Investors were looking for areas that were underinvested for a very long period of time. But there needs to be a catalyst. It can't just be because you were underinvested. And that's infrastructure plus the investor.

So portfolio positioning was extremely low for many, many years, as you already highlighted. And then all of a sudden, the fog of war hits. And now you're starting to talk about where oil prices are. go and then you start to put that in your mind about free cash flow and higher profits. And when you look at the actual earnings of the S&P, they're one of the ones that were growing even more. So now that invited more money coming in, we haven't seen as much on the sales side yet. People are still very interested in what does this mean for the next few years.

We moved it up to neutral from underway in our portfolios in the chief investment office. And it's a small... Neutral's not the biggest badge of approvals. It means you don't dislike it. It allows you to participate, though. That's the key. So when you take a look at where positioning was, inviting more capital into their, the story's not over. Their free cash flow is going to continue to do really, really well.

And I think portfolios will be revalued upward because of it. Yeah. And we've got Conoco on April 30th, and I believe Chevron and Exxon earnings on May 1st. Don't quote me on that going off memory, but I'm pretty sure that's when they are. So Jay Woods, absent all this, we talked, I asked these gentlemen, what they're sort of next most watching. What are you next most watching? Is it technical levels on these markets?

Without a doubt. Then what are we watching? Well, the script is flipped. So now we're watching that 6,900, that 7,000 level. When we see gaps in the market and then continuation gaps on the breakaway gap, now we have levels where buyers are going to come back in and buy the dips. What's a continuation gap on the breakaway gap? Your initial gap is the breakaway gap.

That's when we gapped above the 250-day moving out. average. We held that. We had another gap up, and then this morning, another gap. That's S&P opened up over 80 points. So, you know, from the 4 o'clock closed, not this after hours, pre-market stuff, we gapped up. So when you look at the chart, you'll see a gap. And that gap has memory. And if it doesn't fill, when we get back to it, you usually see buyers come in. You think this will carry over to Monday? We'll see. The weekends are always interesting. News breaks on the weekends. This, we're aware. This ended on a tweet. on a very, you know, busy Monday morning two weeks ago.

So who knows? When we were on the way down, we were saying watch Twitter. On the way up, we're going to continue to monitor it, but at least we have levels. And I think we're out of the woods. We're in earnings season. The financials started us off. The leadership is changing.

Financial's still looking good. City, my favorite of the group, but Goldman, which I personally own. And Morgan Stanley. What about Bank of America? It would be number five on my list of five. But it's on the list. It's on the list. It allows you to participate.

I believe that the financials are finally back and the trends are getting in the right directions. Technology, when you have the semiconductors continuing to lead, that is positive. Invidia breaking out. Let's see if you can get back above 200. They'll rally into earnings. Will good earnings get them higher? That's the question.

That is the question for another day, though, because we are going to say goodbye, Jay, Steve, Chris, gentlemen, all, big day. Really appreciate your time, your views, your thoughts, everything. Thank you very much. Let's now get to Contessa Brewer with a CNBC News update. Well, hello, Brian. The Justice Department has reportedly removed a career prosecutor leading the investigation into former CIA director, John Brennan. CNN reports the prosecutor

resisted pressure to bring charges quickly against the Trump critic. The president has long railed against Brennan for a 2017 intelligence assessment that found Russia interfered in the presidential election to help Trump win. The billionaire founder of Lulu Lemon is building a new coalition of small athletic focused brands. Bloomberg reports Chip Wilson's latest venture includes new and existing small brands. Wilson is a major investor in Amher Sports, which owns brands like Arctricks, Wilson, and Salomon. And New Jersey Transit announced today round trip World Cup train tickets from Penn Station to MetLife Stadium. I mean, this is like two miles, maybe three. they're going to cost $150.

Eight games are scheduled at the stadium. New Jersey Governor Mike Sherrill vowed that New Jersey commuters are not going to be stuck with the FIFA bill for public transportation. She really wants to tell the world, welcome to New Jersey. Well, to be, okay, I'll defend Mikey Sherrill a little bit and just say that she inherited this. That deal was made under the previous governor, Contessa, but you're talking about $150 bucks to take to your point. a two and a half mile train ride.

Tickets are hundreds or thousands of dollars each. They're going to knock out trains from Penn Station. I don't know about you, Contessa. I love the World Cup, and I'll be very excited to watch it from my couch. I'm planning to go to the game, and apparently I'm going to shell out $150. You're going to the game? I want to. Do you have any extra tickets?

Yeah, hand out Brian. Contessa, Burr, thank you very much. I kept trying to get on the list. I didn't get on. I gave up. All right. Anthropics, CEO. Dario Amadeh in D.C. today to meet with officials about its mythos, AI model.

The latest update on that meeting, is mythos going to eat the world and cost us all our jobs? I don't know. Mackenzie Segalos might. She's up next on that. High stakes meeting happening in Washington, D.C. Anthropic CEO Dario Amade is scheduled to sit down with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles about the powerful AI model mythos. Mackenzie Sagalos joining us now live outside. the White House with more.

So, Brian, I'm here at the Southwest Gate. CEO Dario Amadee could walk through at any moment. He is set to meet with the White House, specifically to talk about Mythos. This is an about-faced by the government. Both sides were at a stalemate on that fight over whether or not the government could use Claude's model. But Mythos is so powerful, that cyber-AI model, that only 40 companies, financial institutions, tech companies have access to it from Anthropic.

The government reportedly, some of its intelligence. intelligence-related agencies are using it right now, but Treasury wants it. Multiple other federal agencies want access to it. So that's what these talks today are about. There's still a question, Brian, about that supply chain risk designation and whether or not the government will lift it in exchange. We'll let you go so you can ask Dario. A couple questions. When he gets there, Mac, appreciate that. More power lunch right after this. Jay Woods kind of to stick around for the last minute of the show. And in that break, you gave me some amazing stats. Only three out of the S&B 500, Hershey, General Mills, Abbott Labs, are oversold. Is this market overdone?

Well, if you believe this streak is going to end and you want to see a reversal, these three stocks, I believe it's only Abbott now in real time that's oversold. You may see a rally. One stock out of 503. One. One. So this has been a heck of a rally. If it does pull back, this is where people may go. And then I'll give you more boring stocks.

Team Mobile, Verizon, AT&T. They got hammered the last few weeks. They look like they could get, you know, a quick trade. They don't really excite. But hey, if you can make money in a quick trade, you're watching. That's where the traders may go in the next week if we do pullback. Jay Woods, thank you for sticking around. Really appreciate that.

Have a good weekend. So to wrap it up, folks, the markets are rocketing. Got one hour to go. It's going to be a very important hour. I will not be here for it, though, but don't worry. The closing bell team has got you fully covered. Thanks for watching. Have a good weekend.

We'll see you Monday. Closing bell starts now.