Power Lunch - Nvidia Warning Signs, Tesla Robotaxi 6/20/25

Episode Date: June 20, 2025

CNBC’s Brian Sullivan and Kelly Evans take you through the heart of the business day bringing you the latest developments and instant analysis on the stocks and stories driving the day’s agenda. “Power Lunch” delves into the economy, markets, politics, real estate, media, technology and more. The show sits at the intersection of power and money. “Power Lunch” gives viewers a full plate of CNBC’s award-winning business news coverage, plus a healthy dose of personality from the show’s anchors and the network’s top-notch roster of reporters and digital journalists. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to Power Lunch. I'm Brian Sullivan, along with Contessa Brewer. And for Kelly Evans today, we're at the intersection of global conflict, monetary policy and market reaction. Wall Street, weighing a volatile, fresh mix of forces, new developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran, sending tremors through global energy markets while here at home. Investors laser-focused on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Welcome. And really, we're just looking here at inflation being a wildcar geopolitical risks rising. The Fed is balancing an act, and it's getting. complicated. We are now getting fresh commentary from an influential member of the Fed's rate policy committee. What does this mean for your money? Where do the markets go from here? Well, let's take a look. But yeah, and by the way, the market's getting a little bit of some rate cut hope, I guess, because Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the central bank's key voices, says he does see a case for cutting interest rates as soon as next month if inflation data keeps cooperating. It is one of the clearest signals.

yet that at least some on the Fed, some on the Fed, are maybe ready to shift gears, but there are a lot of ifs here. Let's bring back in senior economics reporter Steve Leasman and Steve. I know that you're also going to have a big interview at 4 p.m. today with Mary Daly, so she'll provide more insight. We call that a deep tease. You're welcome. A lot of ifs here, because who knows if inflation data is going to cooperate? I don't know. Exactly. And either just Fed Chair Powell. You have a debate brewing on the Federal Reserve right now over whether it should cut rates ahead of possible tariff inflation. Governor Waller, in that exclusive CNBC interview, saying the Fed should treat tariffs as one-time price hikes and think about rate cuts maybe as soon as July.

And I've been arguing since a year ago that central banks should be looking through this. This has been debated for 50 years in central banking, and the standard rule of thumb is you look through these types of price shocks. And that's what I think I'm arguing. That's what we should do. And so if that's the case, start moving on cutting the policy rate. Not so fast, says Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. He cautioned that many expect, quote, meaningful price increase from tariffs.

And that was a reason to wait. We haven't been through a situation like this. And I think we have to be humble about our ability to forecast it. So that's why we need to see some actual data to make better decisions. We'd like to get some more data. And again, in the meantime, we can do that because the economy remains in solid condition. All right. What's the market think of all this?

There was a modest jump in the July Fed futures, but it rains a long shot at around 15% for July. Rick, the probabilities rose after Waller's comments to 70% for September and 75% for December. Before the Fed meets again in July, there will be job and inflation data, additional data, both of which could turn the tide towards Waller or more towards barrel, guys. What's going to be next on the leaseman-lawful? list. If you had to pick like the thing you're going to watch for most closely, the CPI, PPI, P.C. Deflator, Rodent Track Magazine, whatever it might be, Steve Leesman, what are you going to be most closely watching? Well, every week I watch those jobless claims. I'm kind of

surprised they're not higher, I have to say. Brian, there's been a lot of pausing out there, maybe not a lot of firing, but a little less hiring out there. The federal government has been cutting back. We'll see if that ends up spiking. But the thing, if you want the quickest route to a rate cut, it runs through the job market. A weakening of the job, a market weakening of jobs would cause rates to, I think the Fed to really think about rate cuts even in the face of higher inflation. And then obviously you watch the inflation data. That seems pretty clear to me.

But not just the inflation data, watch the tariff goods and then watch the non-tariff goods and see if stuff's spilling over one place to the other. did not happen in May, and I think that gives Waller some confidence. And we have to wait and see what happens when tariffs come into play how that affects employment, whether the costs going toward goods now takes away from hiring. So we'll be watching. Steve, thanks. I think that's a very important point.

You have people who are very, companies are very uncertain. And look, if they're going to absorb the tariffs, they're going to pay somebody less or not hire somebody. or reduce their capital spending. So all of that is possible. I'd say another thing, Brian, and contestant, is I'd be listening to the commentary from the CEOs. How are they reacting to all this? The Fed is clearly taking a lot of cues

from its conversations with executives. And that is something I think that's informing the debate at the Federal Reserve right now. Yeah, and we're going to talk a little bit about that within the casinos and hotels and cruises context coming up this hour. Steve, thank you for that. Stocks down right now as investors are monitoring the Fed's next move and, of course, the situation in the Middle East.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told us earlier this week. He's watching earnings revisions, not the macro uncertainty for his outlook on the markets. We're bullish because earnings revisions have turned up and they've turned up meaningfully since the middle of April. And I think that's the real story here for stocks. It's not about all these distractions. It's about that we made a significant trough in April, but from a market standpoint and from a rate of change standpoint on earnings. It's that simple. Our next guest is urging investors to raise cash. Instead, Matt Maley is the chief market strategist at Miller-Tayback. And so, Matt, you disagree with Wilson's take on earnings revisions.

Yeah, I do. I mean, I have huge respect for Mike and his work. And, you know, he talked about the rate of change. I suppose the rate of change is improving. But, you know, earnings estimates are going down and have been going down almost every week. I mean, all every week, like two in the last 10 months. And they have been going down since April. So maybe the rate of change isn't as bad as it was, but they are going down. I don't know how else to state it if you look at those consensus earnings. And, of course, we see that the economy is starting to slow even more.

We're seeing that, whether it be the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index or just, you know, the numbers themselves like the retail sales data we got this week. And so that just raises concerns in my minds where the market is trading it more. more than 22 times earnings, more than three times sales, and more than five times book value, your risk reward situation or equation is much more to the risk side of things, not to the reward side. And therefore, I think right at this point, you're not going to miss much if you put some money in cash. If you're fully invested, you're taking a big chance. If you're raising some cash, I think you'll be in a little bit better shape right now. If you're getting into a defensive posture,

Are there particular areas that you like? Well, again, like I said, the thing with cash, if you go to 10, 15% cash, that's actually paying you something right now. And like I said, I think the upside potential in the stock market is like 3 to 5%, but the downside could be anywhere from 15% or even more. And again, that ratio is that way. So in the defensive areas, you know, one area, of course, is gold. It's a win-win situation.

You know, you think, well, that's a defensive play. but guess what? It's outperform the stock market since the bear market lows of 2022. So you're going to win if we have some problems in the Middle East or not. And I think the same thing with certain other defensive areas and some unloved areas like the energy sector. Which means that gold, Matt Maley, which has outperformed stocks this year, in the past year, and in the past, I think, 25 years. gold, just a little, a rock of metal, may be a better investment than like

Nvidia. It's kind of mind-blowing. Well, yeah, it is, Brian. But, you know, that doesn't mean, like I said, we're not telling people to go to 100% cash. And, you know, if you own Nvidia, hold on to it. But to have at least some, I mean, for many years, it was, you know, have 5% or 3% in gold.

Well, maybe have at least 5% now. or maybe even a little bit more for the reasons you touch on. I mean, you know, the flight to safety issue is becoming a problem. Sometimes it works in the crypto market, sometimes not so much. We're having some issues with the dollar that may be not working out quite as well recently. Well, guess what? Gold has been working for 5,000 years, so I think it will continue to work well because we have all these issues about a slowing economy, slowing earnings growth,

at a time where the market's really expensive. And then, of course, we have these geopolitical issues. Why not have some protection there? We were talking with Steve. a little bit about the push for the Fed to cut rates this year, the other factors that are playing into that. For instance, labor inflation, wage inflation is a real factor. And when I'm talking with CEOs, they're saying, okay, well, we've already raised what we're paying out in wages, and now we have to worry about the immigration issue taking our workers away, and can we refill and backstop some of those issues?

How much do domestic politics play into the way you're thinking about where the markets go from here? Well, that's certainly a key variable. And it was interesting where Mr. Waller had said today, where he might look for a cut in July, but for the reasons that you're talking about, the chairman, the head of the Fed, I said just the opposite, as you guys alluded to in the previous comments, Steve. And so we have inflation issues, you know, worry about. Then nobody's suddenly talking about what's going on with the tariffs, that's overseas, but domestically, what's going on with this tax bill?

And it looks like now it's not going to get passed by the 4th of July. Not that I'm really worried about that. They'll get it past at some point. But what kind of an impact is that going to have? It is going to increase the budget deficit. We all know that the budget deficit is finally becoming something that is impacting the markets after many decades. So it's another reason to be at least raising a little bit of cash here.

Again, you know, and I guess the last thing to say about this whole cash year, issue. If you have it and the market's going down a lot, you're going to be much more comfortable. And so you're not going to be selling at the bottom when the market's bottoming me out. And people say, I can't take it anymore. Just get me out. That's what usually happens. People sell at the wrong time right near the bottom. You got a little cash on the sidelines. That enables you to have the confidence to buy a little bit when that happens. You do wonder, Matt, no need to comment. What happened to all the people who sold in early April when everything was tanking? And we had the most violent rapid recovery in the stock market.

if not ever, certainly in years. It's a great point. Good lessons. Have a great weekend, Matt Maley. Thank you. It sounds a little bit like an oxymoron, a violent recovery. I mean, it just doesn't, like, that mashup really paints a picture in your mind. Why is everybody on my... Jumbo shrimp.

Pretty ugly. Okay, that's pretty good. Right? I mean, those are the oxymorons. Yeah, I like it. Violent recovery really does paint a very clear picture in your mind. Rodent Track Magazine. Don't miss Steve Leasman's exclusive interview with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley.

That is at 4 p.m. today. It's on a show called Closing Bell Overtime. That's a big one. We're not done yet, though. And coming up on Power Lunch, the energy price hike story you are not hearing much about, but you will if you stick around. All right, welcome back. Let's talk energy because tensions remain high as Israel targets Iran's missile production sites. Oil and natural gas prices have been rising over the past week on concerns that shipping may be hindered or even shut down in the ultra-critical Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. But here is a story you are not hearing much about elsewhere. Even if shipping remains the same as it is today, and the ships, they are still flowing. You may still see energy prices that you pay go up. Let's find out why.

Anup Singh is the global head of shipping research at oil brokerage, and he graciously agreed to join us live from Singapore, where it is about 2.15 in the morning. So, Anup, thank you for either getting up or staying up. I'm not sure which one. How high are you seeing shipping costs go up? Even as the ships keep moving, their insurance and other costs, I have to imagine, are rising. Hi, Brian. Yeah, good afternoon.

Thanks for having me. Yeah, shipping costs are certainly on the way up. And it's partly because of associated direct costs, but a lot of it also has to do with perceived risk and the risk premiums. As things stand right now, yes, the streets of Hormuz is open. The passage in and out of the Middle East Gulf is open. But ship owners are now very seriously toying with the possibility that they could have their ships locked up inside if things go south. or, and so they have to, they have to ask for a bit of a premium. It's the same sort of risk premium that you see in the oil markets.

You see the same sort of risk premium reflected in the shipping market. So before the 12th of June, if you had to take a super tanker full of oil and ship it, let's say from the Middle East Gulf into China, you are paying a dollar 40 per barrel of oil moved. And now that's gone up to $2.40 per barrel of oil moved. And it's just cascading. It's firm. It's cascading across different sizes, different regions. Is there any sign, Anup, of this moderating, or is it, in your mind, you think, still going to go higher? I would imagine the ship owners know their ships are needed. They're critical. And so they can charge, I would imagine, a lot.

Well, there are caps on how much the market will pay, and a lot of it is driven by news flows. For instance, until the 18th of June, we had reached a bit of a plateau, and then there was all the conversation and very aggressive rhetoric from the United States president, and that again got us going a leg higher. Now, where things stand right now, there is a two-week pause initiated by the U.S. government, as Donald Trump, the president, tries to give another opportunity for negotiation and troops. So the temperature has eased off, and you see it reflected even in the oil markets, yet the risk remains. So in terms of how do we see progressing forward, heightened risk levels, the Gulf, the states of hormones still is under.

undergoing activities and actions which hinder smooth transport, including things like jamming of GPS signals. So the risk remains, yeah? So you remain very news flow oriented from here. You mentioned something really important. A couple days ago, we had two ships collide. Now, listen, ships collide a lot more often than we'd think. I mean, they do it. They're big giant. It can be dark outside. It's the ocean. But there was some talk about, as you pointed out, GPS signals being jammed. I hate speculating Anup, but that's how risk is measured.

If we were to see another incident or reports of a mine, a bomb being laid in the water, or something of that nature, what would happen to those increased shipping costs?

Yeah, they would, they would for sure be under serious upward, upward momentum. I'm being a little bit cautious here because the mostly incident was possibly not related to the GPS jamming. It happened in a location which is about 20 miles south of the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. So generally the jamming has been happening much closer towards the northern boundary of the waterway. But if as you are, as you suggest, there is a mine or any,

other you know similarly kinetic event then immediately the level of risk goes up the insurers will will want the ship owners and charters to cover themselves additional war risk premiums as of now the region you know is is not declared a hot active war zone despite whatever we're seeing and hearing with respect to missiles flying on rockets and so on and so forth The Joint War Committee, which is the Lloyd's List Association subcommittee, has not yet increased the level of war threat in the region. So the insurance premiums haven't really gone up, but that could happen if something

like an event that, like you suggest, does come about. Let's hope it does not. And right now the ships are flowing. I look every day, and you can see all the, it's amazing how many ships there are. A Noop Singh, oil brokerage, live from Singapore. We'll let you get some sleep. Anup, thank you very much. Thank you.

But what we did see in the Middle East was when tensions began rising, there was increased pressure on marine insurance. And instead of taking on more risk or more price of risk, what a lot of the shippers did was they redid their routes to try to avoid the riskiest places. That's longer, though. It just adds time money. It absolutely does.

And then what happens is the longer it takes for goods to get, get to their destinations, the more costly those goods end up being. The shipping costs get passed along, and that's how you end up, you know, as over time, you get inflation. And inflation hits insurance here, too, because when the cost of goods coming into this country goes up, whether from tariffs or whether because of ports being jammed up or because of longer shipping rates, then the costs for insurance when they're repairing homes or they're replacing cars, those costs go up. And that's how we all end up paying. I thought it was fascinating with a Noop Singh.

I didn't know this, that there's just a group of people at Lloyd's in London who determine if it's a war zone. Like some conference room of people are like, yes, now we got to issue it as a war zone and therefore it's amazing. And a lot of those policies will exclude war. So if a war gets declared by Lloyd's of London or officially, then it's an issue. So anyway, we'll continue to keep our eye on that. Coming up, two casino stocks down double digits over the past year. but one Wall Street analyst says right now is the time to double down. Why Wall Street is rolling dice. I'm going to come back. That's next.

Welcome back to Power Lunch. Of course, questions persist over consumer sentiment in the face of ongoing tariffs and trade wars and global economic uncertainty. Where American choose to spend their discretionary dollars is key. Commercial gaming revenue increased 5.7% this year, even as the GDP slipped into negative territory in the first quarter. Part of that is fueled by a growing appetite for sports betting and especially online casino games or eye gaming. That's legally only available in about seven states. But the two of them, sports betting and eye gaming together, now make up a third of commercial gaming sales, according to Morningstar analyst Dan Waziolic. He says top picks for him are MGM, which has significant online presence, casinos in Macau, regional and Las Vegas casinos.

And Caesars, where he writes investors are worried over debt. that management has really shown solid stewardship of capital. Definitely, though, there is a slowdown in Vegas visitation. That's a problem for MGM and Caesars. They own most of the strip and win resorts. Waziolik predicts slowing growth across the travel industry as well with declining air travel and revenue per available room in hotels or Revpar dropping in recent months. Still, demand is there, and you can see it with the cruise lines

where typically travelers book well in advance. Wasayelik points out that shares of carnival and Norwegian, he say they are undervalued. There you're seeing a year-to-date carnivals off by 5 percent. Norwegians off by almost 27 percent compared to, say, Royal Caribbean, which is positive for the year. When you're looking at this issue of demand for travel, Waziolic points out, and he's supported by a lot of travel data, that we still, as Americans, have this yen to travel. just had in the last hour a news report about what AAA says Americans will travel for the 4th of July, like 70 million Americans. Everybody, all of them, all the Americans. But a record number

choosing to travel by road. They're not flying. And so knowing you were going to be on the show, I did my homework and I looked at casino stocks. I said, I guarantee you contest is going to bring casino stocks. Boyd Gaming is the hottest stock this year. Casinos. It's soaring. Boyd is known for the Amelia Bell in Louisiana, the blue chip in Indiana, the local, the one at St. Charles, Missouri, the ones that are local, that you would drive to, are getting the Wall Street love right now. The other thing is, Boyd has a very strong presence. Is that correct? Yes.

Why you say good job? And great job. Nice research. Thank you. Boyd, Red Rock Resorts. These are very strong locals in Nevada, gaming market. What you're called regionals? But not in Nevada.

in Nevada, locals. And what you're seeing is those have gone up year over year where the strip has gone down. Now it's up against tough comps because of the Super Bowl and things like that. But visitation to Las Vegas is truly down. And that's a problem. What about all those casinos on the way to Vegas? I was driving there the other day from Los Angeles. I went through Prim.

When you right you hit Nevada, there's Prim and there's Buffalo Bill. There's that one that's there. And then there's like another one. I think one of them was shut down. and one was clearly being torn down. One existed. There didn't appear to be a lot of people there. I don't know when you were there.

It could have been like a Wednesday morning at 10 a. No, that was when you were stopping in a casino? It was a Friday morning. So I was driving by the MP mine, materials mine, off Mountain Pass. One more point that I want to make here. Just outside of Baker. If you look at investments, I mean, right now the yen for gambling is still there and expanding. And Tom Rieg, the CEO of Caesar said, look, we get the benefit in regionals,

because if people aren't going to Las Vegas, they're still going to drive to their nearby casino and go. So you're going to make the money either way. Amelia Bell. The most valuable company for many, many years in gambling was Las Vegas Sands. The property in Singapore, Marina Bay Sands, is the most lucrative hotel casino hotel in the world. But let me show you over 20 years.

How long was this segment? Over 20 years what this stock looks like. I mean, it's roughly flat. It's up like 5% over 20 years. Now, let me show you Marriott, and there's win. Again, a competitor. It's up about 67% over 20 years. Marriott, let's put up Marriott and Hyatt and Hilton over the same time, over 20 years.

If you're a buy-and-hold investor, which one looks better? The blue one. You go. Well, they're both in blue. Marriott and Hilton are both blue. Is that gray or blue? The hotels versus casinos. Looking at a 20-year chart, if you're on the radio, folks, and the blue one is above the orange one, which is above the other blue one.

Right. Is that black? I don't know what color that. It's grayish charcoal? Shall we? I've been in the Marina Bay Sands. Yeah. I've been to that bar up top.

It's that famous building. It's very neat. Iconic. It's iconic. Thank you. Contessa. Let's get now to Pippa Stevens for a CNBC News Update. Pippa.

Hey, Brian. A judge just now ordered the Trump administration to release Columbia grad and pro-Palestinian activist Mahmood Khalil on bail. ICE agents apprehended him in March over accusations. He posed a threat to U.S. foreign policy over his pro-Palestinian activism. The Trump administration later added accusations. He lied on his green card application. He is not charged with a crime. There are reportedly indications Israel's actions in Gaza may have violated the terms of its human rights agreement with the EU.

That's according to a document from the bloc's foreign policy arms seen by Politico, which cited the use of weapons in densely populated. areas, severe restrictions on aid, and unprecedented killing of civilians in Gaza. EU leaders will decide whether to take action on the findings. And Hawaii's Kilawu volcano erupted again on the big island today, spewing lava 1,000 feet into the sky. That's according to the United States Geological Survey, which says the eruption began just before 2 a.m. local time today.

Kilawu is one of the most active volcanoes in the world and has erupted dozens of times since December. Brian, I'll send it back to you. Happy Volcano Friday, Pippa, I suppose. To you too, Brian. It's no crack at toe of it. Hey, Pippa, thank you very much. All right, still ahead. NASCAR's Cup Series taking place this weekend in the Poconos. By the way, if you haven't been, you should go. It's awesome. And coming up, we'll be a sneak peek with our interview today with the first ever commissioner of NASCAR. Stick around. All right, welcome back. And it's time to give you. a Friday sneak peek. It's something we are going to roll out next week. It is the new CNBC

Sport Video and Podcasts the debut series. And this week, we got to sit down with the first ever commissioner of NASCAR. Steve Phelps, over more than 20 minutes. We talked about a lot of things, including how you watch NASCAR and all the different video and TV deals. And I asked him how it's going with their relationship this year with Amazon. They're very happy with them. I think if you look at the Coke 600, I think, it was average 2.7 million over that four and a half hours. It's a long race. They're averaging a million viewers on average per minute in their post-race show, which is Amazon, which is on Amazon Prime, which is those numbers are unheard of.

And I think they brought their own flare to it, which we knew they would. And I think they have the fan, both fan as well as the garage reaction, action to Amazon Prime has been overwhelmingly positive. So we've been thrilled with them. Everything they said they would do, they've done. And for us, it's an important thing, right? If you think about where cable is, right? And so cable had some declines, and now it's...

What? But it's steady, right? Well, how do you see it playing out? Because the TV, you're a couple years into a seven-year, $7.7 billion, I'm not sure why I've so many sevens. 70 or $7.7 billion TV deal. You've got Fox, you've got NBC, you've got Amazon, you've got

USA, there's various. How does the TV partnership side play out over the next few years for the next deal? Listen, I don't know what the next deal is going to look like, which is why this deal was so important. Not just because of the money and the money that feeds the industry, and it does. Like, our whole stakeholder group

is fed by media money. So we have a blend, right? So we have, you know, Fox that has broadcasts, they have four races they broadcast on Big Fox. Then they have eight races they did on FS1. Then we rolled into Amazon Prime for five races. And then we're going to Turner Sports shortly with our first in-season tournament, which is going to be really cool.

And then we are back with NBC. So Big NBC with four races and on USA with 10 races. So it's a, it's a, it's a, blend of broadcast, cable, and streaming, or in Turner's case, they'll have cable with Turner and True TV and simulcast on Macs. So you're kind of getting a blended universe, which is important because, again, you're trying to meet people where they are. Is there too much blending? I would say this, and it's not just with NASCAR, by the way. You look at NFL, there's days where it's like, where's the game? And then people say, well, it's on Amazon, okay, or it's on Peacock,

or it's on CBS. And there's a fear that you're going to lose viewers. because they don't know where to find stuff because there's so many media partners. Yeah, so I think we've been surprised pleasantly by the prime numbers, as I said, the Amazon prime numbers. If you go on Amazon and buy something this Sunday, you will, and the race is, you know,

the Pocono race, it will say that the Pocono race is there. We are up on, you know, on the top of that screen, which is tremendous. And they've plugged in different places for us. So was there a fear about dilution around distribution? Yeah, there was a fear. But for us, we thought it was really important to test a streamer, right? So there were lots of people who doubted that the numbers would be as good as they are.

I mean, there's a pundit who thought the numbers, and I won't say who it is, because it's a current partner, their research person thought Amazon Prime would do 1.2 million average viewers on for the Coke 600. It was over two million. Two seven. Yeah. So he missed by just a smidge. 2.7 million viewers on Amazon Prime for the Coca-Cola 600 race in Charlotte. That is a big deal.

Be sure to check out our full interview with the first ever commissioner of NASCAR, Steve Phelps. That is going to roll out on Thursday. You can click the QR code on. on your screen. You can go to cnbc.com forward slash. Do we still need to say that? HTT, anyway, it's a big interview.

Steve is a great guy, wide-ranging conversation. What's your sense that, I mean, when I've talked to Steve before, it's clear that he thinks NASCAR is America's sport. What's your sense talking to him now

about how much he thinks F1 and the fervor over F1 has taken some of the racing attention away from NASCAR? I actually, well, you got to tune in next. Thursday because that was actually one of my first questions to him because F1 and IndyCar were basically left for dead about 20 years ago. They've come roaring back. Scott, have you heard of this Brad

Brad Pitt guy? Yes, I have. He's very handsome. And he has a movie coming out this weekend about F1. So your point is well taken. And I asked him, and you could tune in to find out how much competition there is for the motorsports dollar. Right? Motorsports time and dollar for F1, IndyCar, and NASCAR. He's very bullish. But again, tune in to find out. That is a great. That was fun. We taped that this morning. It's a full day, as we say. He's a great guy. He is. Still ahead. One strategist says this Mag 7 winner is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. We'll reveal that name in today's market navigator. That's next. All right. Welcome back to Power Lunch. Hope you having a great Friday wherever in America or the world you may be.

The markets, stocks, bonds, energy, they're all navigating the latest headlines. And to stay ahead, we're watching the semiconductor space. The Wall Street Journal reporting, the Trump administration, wants to revoke waivers that allow, right now, global chipmakers to ship American-made equipment to China. In other words, make them not be able to do that. One name that has rallied in the last three months, InVIDIA, at stock up more than 20%. And you're a next guest breaking down the technicals of that. and more. Katie Stockton is the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. She's going to be joining us, I'm told, in just a moment, contested Brewer, because we're going to

look at the semiconductor stocks in what they call the market navigator segment. We're going to do what? Navigate the markets. But you know what's interesting? When we have heard, and you had just brought this up earlier in the show, Brian, that Nvidia may be a great investment if you're not planning to hold it over a long period of time. But what happens in the short term when we're looking at the short term? Well, listen, we're going to find out Katie's going to be joining us momentarily, and we're going to look at the technicals of Nvidia, some of conductor stocks, and more. But it's a good point. My only point about gold was I wasn't knocking Nvidia. I wasn't knocking the stock market

at all. But you know what? I made my point earlier, and Katie Stockton's good to go now. So we're just going to go to her. Katie Stockton joining us now. Fairlead Strategies. Joining us, apparently yellow is the color of summer. Contessa Burr just said that. Katie good to have you on right now. How do the charts look for NVIDIA? You know, we've seen a really massive relief rally off that April low, almost 70% upside. So you can imagine after that kind of game, NVIDIA does look overextended. And we haven't been terribly worried about the stock until very recently when we saw some signs of short term and also intermediate term now upside exhaustion. That's based on our demarc indicators. And we have a couple

charts that we brought with us. On the daily chart of the Invidia, you'll see there is a countertrend signal denoted by an arrow. And it's coming not terribly far from resistance, which is pretty strong right around 150. And then if you zoom out to the weekly chart, you'll see also that as of this week, we have a weekly signal of the same kind. And we haven't seen these signals since the peak back in late 2024. So I do think there's risk here of a retracement and that, you know, some investors might think about reducing exposure with that in mind. Well, it's fascinating, too, because you've got two things here. You've got investors and you have traders. And Katie, you know better than anybody. They're very different things, right? Investors,

you buy for the long-term months, quarters, years, decades, whatever it is. Traders, they can trade every minute, every second, every day to see what things are. And guys, we can bring that chart back up. What's fascinating about Invidia, Katie, is that for all the attention, it gets, I mean, we talk about it all the time. The stock has not made investors, longer-term buyers, any money in about a year. That's right. So we've seen the stock move from a cyclical up trend into a long-term trading range. You can see that in the kind of flat slope of the 200-day moving average, which, by the way, is about 11% below current levels. It's not a major support level, the major support defining the bottom boundary, the range is closer to 100. So it's a pretty

wide range. And within that range, traders actually probably should welcome the possibility for more volatility, because for those that bought in April, they're up nearly 70 percent, right? So I think traders, it's actually a better environment in NVIDIA for them, as long as this trading range is intact. And as you'd guess, the trading range does reflect a loss of long-term upside momentum to suggest So the broader market might be challenged for the balance of the year. Well, broader market might be challenged, maybe a demarc indicator short-term top on Nvidia. Said a lot without having to say a lot. Katie Stockton, Fairleet Strategies.

Katie, have a great day, good weekend. Thank you. You too. Take care. Coming up, Tesla is shifting gears. Elon Musk betting big on the future of driverless cars will take you inside the push for robotaxies and why Austin, Texas could be the launch pad for Tesla's next revolution. I'll be right back.

Welcome back to Power Lunch. Tesla is set to roll out its new Robo Taxi Service in Austin over the weekend. Shares have just been on a tear over the past two months up more than 33%, up about half a percent today. Joining us now is Sylvia Jablonsky, the co-founder and CEO of Defiance ETS. It's great to see you today. One of the reasons we wanted to have this conversation is because Dan Ives has come out. And one, he's the notorious Tesla bull. Everything is bullish around Tesla for Dan, I think.

But he says Tesla could hit a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2026. What do you think? Well, first of all, thanks for having me here and happy Friday. I am very much aligned with that view. You know, Dan Ives has really been right about Tesla. And Tesla has suffered its ebbs and flows. I think a lot of that is recently because of Doge and some of the things going on with China and regulatory restrictions and things like this.

But I think Robotaxies opens up a new horizon for them. This is the business that can get them to that trillion dollars. This allows them to utilize the capacity of cars that they have and generate revenue from them. I think they're going to have growth in their power grid on solar, on their AI technology that they can share with other cars. And then the regulatory environment will also better for them, which will help drive that growth.

We saw a push here about autonomous vehicles, not just from the EV makers that were already doing it, but from the traditional guys that was said, okay, we're going to test this out a little bit too. You have a Tesla versus Ford ETF called Elon. That's the ticker symbol. What is it? And how do you think about how investors make money

through positioning these two against each other? Yeah, exactly. So this is a very popular retail trade, right? It's the idea of one stock does better than another. So you go along one and short the other. And what we thought was, well, why don't you enhance your view on the stock that you'd like to go along? So this is like a battle. We call it battle shares.

It's your leverage 2X Tesla and your short Ford. And essentially what you're trying to do is the new guard versus the old guard. So as Tesla goes up, you have leverage exposure and outperformance. And if Ford goes down, you also benefit from that drop. But the idea is just that the world is changing. You know, AI, machine learning, companies that embrace this and use it to drive their business strategy. will do better than kind of the old guard that doesn't adapt to it. And when you-

Why is there so much emotional passion around Tesla? It's because Elon in politics, right? I mean, it's weird. Elon and politics. But we don't know how it's going to, like, affect sales. There's people literally in my neighborhood that have sold their Teslas because they're mad at Elon Musk. That's a hard thing to model.

Yeah, yeah. But if you think about the future of the Robo Taxi, I mean, I have two little kids and I wonder if one day they're going to say to me, mom, were you one of those people that stood on the side of the road and, like, hail, the taxi, where there was a driver that you never met before? You know, I think it's the future of the world and if it actually can take off and it can be safely, you know, monitored and developed. I mean, that is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. Well, I don't know about the robotaxie, but I got into a Waymo.

And it, as a big truck, a box truck was trying to turn into a San Francisco street, the Waymo backed up so the truck could make the turn. There are human drivers that don't know how to do that. So it was in a Waymo month ago. It was fantastic. Yeah, it was impressive. So, like, I buy it. Part of it is getting over the hurdle of the human. sentiment. Right. And as AI grows and develops and you have, you know, the growth of super computing

and data and visual data, lower latency, 6G, this just becomes more and more efficient. Sylvia Jablonsky, Defiance ETF's co-founder and CEO. I just gave you some made-up title. Thank you for coming in. You appreciate it. Today it's all about making up words. Yeah. You had some dozies. I had some amazing words today. Still ahead. We're going to recap one of the day's biggest stock moves. It's coming up. CryptoWatch is sponsored by Crypto.com. Crypto.com is America's premier crypto platform. Real fun to be with you, Big Money Brewer, here on a Friday.

But very quickly, DoorDash for making some big money. People aren't paying attention. DoorDash, which rhymes with Jordash, the Gene brand from the 80s. I remember. Stock is up like six weeks in a row and is almost at a new all-time high. Who knew that food delivery could be so profitable? Got to wonder if boxes are on their way up, too. like all the boxes and the bags that you need for delivery.

Oh, the U-Line family of Wisconsin is one of the richest families in America now because of all the Amazon stuff. There's a giant building on Kenosha on 94. Just it's like a mile long because all the building, but that's green. All the cardboard. Yeah. Thank you for watching Power Lunch. We enjoyed having you.

And tune in to Fast Money 5 p.m. Because I'll be there too. There's actually three of me. Closing bell starts right now.