Power Lunch - Paramount Skydance goes hostile for Warner Bros. 12/8/25

Episode Date: December 8, 2025

Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison sits down for an exclusive with CNBC. The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow.  And what is the state of the U.S. housing market? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The fight for Warner Brothers Discovery, far from over, and global yields rising all as the clock ticks down to the Federal Reserve's widely expected rate cut in just about 48 hours. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian alongside Kelly. Another plot twist in the bidding war for Warner Brothers' Paramount Skydowns. They're going hostile to try to buy the media company and the CEO telling David Faber that he wants to finish what he started. The latest on the boardroom fight at the media corral. Kelly. And the other key move that we're following, global bond yields continue to climb across all major economies, raising some fresh questions about inflation and central bank strategy here in the U.S. The Fed widely expected to cut rates again this week. But 10-year treasuries are near multi-week highs, could even be putting some pressure on the market today, which right now is near session lows. All right. And even if you do not care about interest rates, you may care about mortgage rates. So where does high-end housing go from here? A real estate star, Ryan Sirhan, is here. with his hot takes on Homebine. We'll get to that and him in a few minutes. But first, let us get into the big money story of the day

because the fight for big media is heating up. Paramount Skydance now launching a hostile bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. They're going straight to shareholders with an all-cash, $30 per share offer. Now, Paramount shares soaring right now likely on the idea that it will not have to pay for Warner Brothers. Well, let's hear from the man who broke the story, himself, David Faber, and we should note that Netflix co-CEOs, Greg Peters, and Ted Sarandos are speaking this hour at a Wall Street conference, so it is possible. We may get some new

headlines from them, but David, joining us now from the NYSC. Awesome interview, long interview, great stuff in the 9 o'clock Eastern time. Our, David, your primary takeaways from the interview and where we stand right now. Yeah, you know, listen, Brian, as you well know, I've been following this for quite some period of time, and obviously we had the huge deal signed prior to the weekend in which Netflix signed to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, $27.75 a share, most of it in cash, some of it in stock, which has a collar. Actually, Netflix shares have moved below that collar. That move in Paramount, by the way, there's Netflix, which is below the collar. So that does erode ever so slightly the overall value of that deal. And then you've got that stub, as we call it, of global networks that will trade separately. And publicly, and a debate about what that's worth, as you take a look at Warner Brothers Discovery shares. By the way, they had been up a lot more in the early going and have pulled back a bit, but still up another three plus percent, as you see, right around that $27 mark.

Paramount share is actually up today because of the possibility or higher likelihood that they will succeed. I think that there are a lot of concerns the other way. What does their business look like, should they not? Of course, their bid is all cash. $30, as you said, it's a tender, and it puts pressure on the upcoming shareholder vote of Warner Brothers Discovery, shareholders to vote in favor of the Netflix deal. We don't have a date on that vote. It hasn't been said. Typically, we often see them three to four months after the announcement or the sign merger agreement, but nothing says it couldn't be a lot later.

That's going to be one of the keys. Another will be the response that we get from Warner Brothers and a so-called 14D-9. filing to this tender offer, they'll explain their side of the story, and a lot of it goes to this argument being made that somehow Paramount was disadvantaged, that the board didn't see everything. Again, this is sort of at least their thinking, as they made clear today in their press release, and during the interview with David Ellison, that they weren't given opportunities to come back. They weren't asked questions after they made their final bid, perhaps not even realizing that it was best and final because they've said that they actually may have had more

in their pocket. And from what I've been able to determine based on reporting, some of the questions on the Warner Brothers side, according to people close to that camp, revolve around the Ellison Trust, whether it could be trusted in some ways to come up with the money, as it is the backstop for the $40.7 billion of equity that would go towards the deal, whether in some way it could be assigned whether there was real risk there seems to be one of the key questions and it's something that came up during my interview with david ellison so david it's on the board now uh the board of wbd is that right to so is it is it possible that either side is going to raise their offer do you think netflix would raise its offer well netflix won't have to raise its offer

unless it needs to kelly and if in fact it looks as though a shareholder vote is not going to succeed. There is a point at which you could imagine that Warner Brothers would come back to them and say, well, you could raise your bid and therefore ensure perhaps the shareholder vote in some way or give more protections on the antitrust piece of this. And again, that continues to be sort of one of the key areas. There are numbers. There's a debate about value of global networks. There is, and what that would be worth. David Ellison says it's worth $1. As you might imagine, Warner Brothers believes it's more, although they haven't actually given us the number on that or what the board was told they think it would be worth.

And then there's the debate about antitrust. And that's probably the most important single debate being, does Netflix really have the ability to get this thing past antitrust regulators, putting together number one and number three in streaming? Or is that simply going to be a no-go, which makes all of this moot? Because at some point, their deal will fall apart. That's something that shareholders, obviously, Warner Brothers, are going to have to decide. They're going to get that opportunity when they make their vote, whenever that

may be, and we're going to have a lot of debate between now and then. I did want to come back, though, to this point I was making about at least concerns, perhaps, that Warner Brothers had around the Ellison Trust and give David Ellison the opportunity to respond. Take a listen. I've heard the idea that somehow you were told that your deal wasn't perfected. Is that correct? So, Bali, we've heard that, but again, it just, it has no basis in reality. It's wild keep going back to you, the $41 billion in equity was fully backstop by the Ellison family. Is your father selling Oracle stock, by the way, to finance that, or just margining? And how is that actually working?

So we obviously have investors that we're partnering with as well. But again, we're fully, we have all of the capital necessary to complete this transaction. Well, when you say that, though, is there a way that they could perhaps doubt that because it doesn't involve selling stock and actually having the money on hand? David, come on. Please, like, I think kind of calling that into question is, I don't think there's any merit to that. No, I think that's a fair point on your part, but they might ask it. I mean, you know, maybe they already have.

Again, the equity was fully backstuffed. And that continues to be the case. Now, there is a large amount of money coming from Mideast investors, including Saudi's PIF, Qatar, Abu Dhabi as well. In fact, that number listed at $24 billion as of December 1st in the filing we got. but it's actually higher, is my understanding, as is the commitment from the Ellison Trust, which was $11.8 billion, but is going to be above that as well to account for the higher bid, 10 cent no longer a part of it, and a few other things, guys. So so much, obviously, that we're going to be covering in these next few months as this continues,

this huge fight for this asset. And I'm going to layer another layer on top of this, David Faber, and ask you a question that I know you cannot answer, but I have to ask it. Do we have any idea when Brendan Carr of the FCC or other regulators may come in and sort of decide if this is kosher or not based on your reporting? Do we have any time frame about when an approval for this deal or a regulator fight may occur? You know, in the case of Netflix, there's no FCC and really not really much of an issue for Paramount. You're talking only there about CBS, but what they're buying doesn't have any over-the-air broadcasts, right? It's the studio, it's HBO.

In the case of Netflix, they're not even buying global networks. In the case of Paramount, they're making a bit for the entire asset, but it's all cable networks. So which regulator then? It's a DOJ. It's the DOJ. It's the Department of Justice that will be weighing in, by the way, on both sides. In other words, there was a time, Brian, when I could have imagined saying to you, oh, we're going to put Paramount and Warner Brothers together as a studio, and many people would say,

wait a second, that's an antitrust issue right there. And it may still be. And then, of course, the key question, can Netflix be together with HBO? Can they own that? Or is that going to really staunch competition potentially throughout? How do you define the streaming market? John Malone, in an interview I did with him about a month ago, said, well, it includes Instagram, and it includes YouTube, it includes TikTok. Well, that's a very different market if you consider that. And so we'll have to wait and see how the regulators actually view it. David Faber. Amazing interview today. Really appreciate your insight. Stick it around. David, take care. Have a great day. Thanks. Yeah, that was awesome. Our next guest just downgraded Netflix

to neutral on this blockbuster deal, assuming they get it. He warns it could put the company in an extended period of uncertainty and risks and question its intentions to use Warner Brothers Film and TV library in quote-unquote non-detailed ways. Let's bring in Barton Crockett. He covers internet media at Rosenblot. You should just, you know, go argue to the DOJ, Barton, and just say, about it. There is a terrible deal. I mean, what is it that you think doesn't make sense here for Netflix? And clearly, the investors have some concerns as well. Yeah, look, I think that clearly there's some uncertainty about what's going to happen with this deal process. Will Netflix bid more? Will this go on for a couple of years for approval if there's a court challenge from the

Trump administration that could add 20 months, which is what we saw with AT&T Time Warner? And what happens to Warner Brothers in that interim, you know, particularly with Netflix, that is somewhat controversial in Hollywood with, I know they're pledging to support theatrical, but they don't have a history of doing that. And I think a lot of people on Hollywood are skeptical. So, yeah, what happens to the asset over this period? I think the, you know, clearly what they've talked about is that they'll get, after synergies in a couple of years, nearly $6 billion of EBITDA, but that's a pretty small percentage

of what they're paying. So the return on investment from the financials they've quoted is not really compelling for the risks. So clearly they believe that they can unearthed content from HBO and the Warner Brothers studio that is transformative, but they're not detailing that. And within that, you can almost say, well, how much is too much? I mean, if this is the best content gold mine ever, then, you know, maybe the sky's the limit on what you can pay.

So what's the upward bound on what they're willing to go to for this transaction. So those are some of the things we're working about. You agree, in other words, that this is a gold mine of content. And that Netflix might- I don't agree. I do think that it is great content, but I think that Netflix is particularly bullish about it, and that could drive them to spend more. You know, so I don't know what the upper limit is for Netflix on what they're willing to spend to get this.

Right. So this could be a bidding war that becomes frothy. So if they, is there a world, I mean, I think about that, what was that Megan Markle suits, right? Didn't they put that on air? and suddenly everyone watched this show before it and it had been somewhat watch. But if they have the power in the reach to take what they view as great assets and give them this scale, then is it possible that they're low-balling the future EBITDA that they might get off of a deal like this?

That must be the case, right? They must view that they're going to make a lot more money down the road from this than what they're telling you on paper. Yeah, they must believe that for sure. You know, does that necessarily hold water? I'd love to see more kind of flushing out of that argument. You know, the Netflix already is very strong and scripted content. They're already able to get things that are, you know, basically dust-offs from somebody else's attic and make them big, you know, not just suits, but also Wednesday and the Adams family,

you know, for MGM. That was, you know, an asset that was not really worth anything, Adams, and now suddenly it's worth something. So, you know, why do they need to buy HBO and Warner Brothers to continue what they've already been successful at? And how much more will that really drive subscribers? They had a tremendous third quarter for content, but we didn't really see it inflect in the financials. So I wonder if scripted television movies, to a degree is pushing on a string.

Perhaps the investment would be better put into sports or user-generated content. Maybe they should buy TikTok. So I'm just unconvinced by so much of the uncertainty around here that I'm stepping aside. Do you think, you know, we talk real quickly a lot about the missteps that have been made in the media landscape over the past 20 years? would this to you be the first time that they are making it? I mean, are they being lured in by Hollywood? Just at the moment that they're winning the whole industry that they're going to kind of make the wrong move

here? You know, it's certainly possible. You get competitive juices. You have an unclear kind of argument on the return on investment that's very arts and craftsy kind of, you know, who knows. And you know, that's lure people to the Rocky Shoals in the past.

And it's not impossible that Netflix could go down that road in this situation. So rather than take that risk, we're stepping aside a bit. Interesting. Barton, thanks for joining us to break it down. We appreciate it. Barton Crackett. Thank you. All right, it's not all it's going on right now.

We've got new developments in the case of the exports of NVIDIA chips to China. There may be a sort of detent here. Let's get out of Christina Parts in Avelas, who has more on what we know and kind of what we still don't. Yeah, Brian, I can confirm the U.S. Commerce Department has given to NVIDIA the green light to sell its H-S. 200 chips to China. In video shares were initially up 2.5% coming down about 1%. And the reason is

investors should just be a little bit cautious about celebrating too early. Why is that? Well, the approval is a way definitely to thread the needle between national security hawks and those who think export controls are just handing the market to Chinese competitors. The H-200 is essentially seen as a compromise within the administration, offering older technology that first shipped in 2003 rather than the newer Blackwell iteration, which is what China really wants. But getting Washington's approval is only half the battle. Beijing still has to actually want these chips. Chinese media is calling this, and there's many outlets over the weekend I was reading it last week to this desperation arguing the U.S. is easing restrictions because Nvidia is losing

its foothold and China as a domestic alternatives really surge. They're even calling the H-200 an inventory dump because these chips were made and Invita needs to They also point to the same backdoor security concerns that led China to tell buyers to avoid the H20 chips earlier this year. Those H20 chips were watered-down versions of this H-200 just approved. The H-200 also forces reliance on NVIDA's Cuda software ecosystem, something of course the Chinese government wants to avoid. They don't want their firms to be addicted to, or I guess, so engrossed in their software.

China has poured billions of dollars into domestic alternatives from Huawei to Cabricon, along with Baidu and Alibaba. Bernstein, in a new note on December 4th, said that they expect China's local AI chip supply to grow five times larger by 2028 compared to 2025, achieving supply demand balance. So Washington may have just said yes, but China could still say no.

And that's the real test for whether this approval really translate into actual revenue for NVIDIA. Did I miss? Who's CamberCon? It's another chip producer, a local one, in China. So it's a China. I'm not crazy. It's a domestic alternative.

Okay, it's a Chinese company because we just say, well, CamberCon may replace the chips. I'm thinking, I'm a cancer. I think, what are you, a Libra? I don't know who. Not a Capricorn. What's a Cambercon? I don't know who that was, Christina. Well, now you do.

And I'm a cancer, too. That's right. You are. Both crabby. Christina, thanks very much. Christina Parts in Evelist. Quick look at shares of Marvell sticking with chips. They're on track for their worst day in more than three months.

This comes after benchmark downgraded Marvell saying they may have lawful. their biggest chip customer, which is Amazon. Last week, the information reported that Microsoft is also in talks to shift its business from Marvell to Broadcom. Those shares are down 7%. Still, JPM reiterates, it's an overweight. It says all these headlines are just noise. And after the break, City Wells, Kate Moore,

will be here with us to help preview the big Fed meeting on Wednesday. Don't go on. Maybe not the week that everybody hoped for if you're long, the equity market. Small caps are doing fine. Russell 2000 is flat to maybe slightly. higher. The Dow is down about 266 points, about half a percent, the S&P, and the NASDAQ down about half or four-tenths of one percent as well. In the meantime, we are about 48 hours now away

from the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. That will take place on Wednesday, December 10th. And that is a move that will likely impact your investments, your savings, and maybe your entire stock investing strategy heading into next year. Let's talk about it all with Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer at City. Well, with Kate, good to see you again. How relevant, if at all, maybe it's not, is this Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday? Look, it's super relevant. I think we can agree that everyone in the market is watching this and that, you know, participants, whether your equity investors or multi-asset investors or rates investors, are really concerned with the tone of the Fed coming out of this rate decision, not so much

the action itself, but whether or not we get a hawkish tone or more of a dovish tone. And look, I firmly believe that when looking at the economic data and the third-party macro data that we have in front of us right now, it is a little bit of a choose-your-own adventure. You can pick the data points and the story that you want to tell. You can data-fit your narrative. And we're interested to see how the Fed does that and how they weave through what are often conflicting bits of data on both prices as well as labor to make their assessment for what future moves may or may not look like. So what are we paying more attention to the decision itself, 80 some 90% chance of a

rate cut according to the CME's Fed Watch tool, Kate, or are we paying more attention to what the Fed may say about the future, especially given that Chair Jerome Powell, he's only going to be chair for another couple of meetings and another couple of months? Is there one way to handicap, which one might be more valuable or important than the other? I think without question, Brian, the focus should be on the tone of Powell's presser. And then what happens after the Fed meeting, both in terms of, you know, the speakers that come out in the following weeks, as well as the inflation data that gets released, of course, after the FOMC decision this week. So it is not just the statement and it's not just the action.

I think we kind of understand the direction of travel there, but it is really the tone out of both Powell as well as the rest of the Fed speakers who will come out and talk to us as investors and talk to the media following that when we get a real sense for where the debate was in the committee. And you've made this good point, right? Powell only has a few meetings in theory left, but we do know that there are a bunch of other voters who have had a variety of different views. We know this from the minutes. We know this from the comments over the last month or two. And we think the debate is going to be very strong into the first part of 2026, and that people who are expecting a consistent pattern of rate cut after rate cut in each subsequent meeting are going to find themselves disappointed. In our view, nominal growth is going to be solid in 2026. Inflation is a little bit spicier. I think then the average person may want to admit, and by the average person, I'm thinking about members of the administration, not so much consumers

who feel this in their day-to-day purchases and that the labor market, while frozen, is not deteriorating in a massively rapid rate, suggesting that we don't need a slash and burn rate cut policy ahead of us. So I think it's going to be difficult for the Fed, you know, over the next couple quarters to make decisions, and that the debate is going to be very important, not just the signaling at this meeting. Yeah. And amidst all that, I know, Kate, you guys are still very bullish on the banks. We're going to talk a little bit more about that later on. We'll check back in with you soon. Kate Moore, CIO, at City Wealth. Keep an eye on bond yields in the meantime, which continue to be on the rise, not just here, but globally.

Japan's 10-year hit the highest level in almost 20 years earlier today. German markets following suit, nearing those levels from the sell-off the spring that was also the highest we've seen in over a decade. Now, some analysts say this is catch-up to the stronger U.S. economic data we've seen since the shutdown ended. Others say it has more to do with Japan, idiosyncratic bond-unwine story there. But it does come on the eve of the fact. Fed's meeting to lower short-term rates, which has some in the market concerned that Fed Chair Powell will be hawkish in his comments Wednesday in order to keep long-end yields at bay. We should be.

416 is the latest reading there. All right. Coming up, your market navigator highlighting a sector that is resuming its upward trajectory after a three-month pause. Feels like a test, Kelly. Resuming its upward trajectory after a three-month pause. The answer to that and the capital of Vermont right after this. Welcome back to Power Lunch.

I'm Dominic Chu with our market navigator. We heard from Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo last week, who said he believes that the financials are undervalued compared to the rest of the S&P 500. Our next guest also has some thoughts on those bigger banks and sees them continuing to break out to new highs. So joining us now is Todd Sown, the senior ETF and technical strategists over its strategic securities.

So Todd, take us through the big, bank argument. Why are they poised to continue to outperform in 2026? Hey, Dom, great, great to be with you. Listen, I think if you're looking to diversify away from some of these mega-cap AI behemoths, the financials are the place to go. You can make the case that they're going to be a beneficiary for AI perhaps in the back office and whatnot. But we also look at the big banks as a characteristic of the leadership fabric of the market. If the big banks are trading well, then things are probably in pretty good shape. There's not necessarily going to be a credit issue down the line. They are foreshadowing a market that is on pretty solid footing. And so again, I go back to the

diversification aspect. The KBWB, Big Bank ETF just broke out of a multi-month range. This is another foreshadowing for a pretty good outlook on the sector heading into next year. Todd, what has the fund flow picture look like specifically when it comes to certain value sectors like the financials? We know that financials, industrials, healthcare have been some of the sectors that have gotten a lot more investor attention as of late. Yeah, I think. it's interesting. As you're seeing more of a bid to defensive sectors such as health care, maybe even energy, financial fund flows have come off the boil. They saw a pretty good ramp up earlier in this quarter. And now there's been some, a little bit of lethargy. I like that

from a contrarian perspective that folks might be dialing back their expectations on the financials while this breakout is occurring. That's a great mix when you have price momentum, along with a lathargeic sentiment backdrop. That's a great combo for the first half of the following year. we'll reassess that risk day to day. But for now, the financial fund flows backdrop is an asset for this space. And that's why you're going to want to continue to add the banks to portfolios. And how exactly does the bigger picture for the S&P 500 play out, given that value tilt that you're seeing in certain parts of the market? I think that's one where you're going to want to keep an eye on what the equal weight S&P 500 does, right? Because the cap weight is skewed by tech and growth.

So maybe it's a market where you don't make much headway on the surface level because of their dominance. you see a lot more leadership from value, from financials, health care, and maybe even energy. We'll see if we can cross that bridge at some point. But it's one that's going to be important to look under the hood rather than looking at the car, so to speak, on the outside for the shine there. All right. Todd Sona, Stratica Securities with the outlook for financials and value overall. Kelly, I'll send things back over to you guys. Maybe even energy. We'll see. Don Banks. And take a quick look at shares of the biotech company's structure therapeutics, doubling today after the company reported positive trial results for its weight loss drug.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are lower, although modestly, following the news. Next, let's get real on real estate. Celebrity broker Ryan Sourhan breaks down what he's seeing with the housing market, right after the break. Welcome back and let's talk a little bit more about the health of housing. You heard Diana last hour talking about this deep freeze the market might be in this winter. New report from Realtor.com shows D-listings are up 46% year-on-year in October. Why? Because sellers aren't liking what they see. They call it at unusually high rate of delistings, and the mortgage rate does remain above 6%.

Here to discuss that and much more, much more, no, is power broker Ryan Surhant. He's the founder and CEO of Sirhant, which now has 1,500 agents across 14 major markets nationwide. And you have a partnership with T-Mobile? How many real estate agents are signing partnerships with T-Mobile in the meantime? Well, real estate brokerages signing partnerships with T-Mobile. It's actually a first-of-its-kind deal. We just announced it today, and it's incredibly, incredibly. incredibly exciting to bring what they call super mobile.

So we're working with T-Mobile for business to bring super-mobile to our AI operating system for salespeople. We are AI for real estate. It's called Simple. It's changed the game. Whatever that means. It sounds like you're very tech forward, and I admire that, especially in this fast-changing landscape.

I'm also going to throw another curveball out you because you're so good at handling that. And then I promise we'll get into all the real estate stuff. Netflix today on which you have a very successful show that has helped launch your career and you're a great partner with them. And the new season is happening now? It just started streaming this weekend. Season 2 is the greatest TV show in the history of the world. Okay, great.

That's the tagline, actually. It is. We're Netflix, then. I'm sure you've seen the headlines. Yes. To buy this movie studio business from Warner Brothers. Do you as just a person who's become popular, successful on Netflix, have any opinion or care at all about what they do?

You just want to see them continue to dominate? I actually, when we created this show, it was called House of Surhant, and we were pitching it. to Netflix and Amazon and Peacock and HBO and actually chose Netflix. So it would be kind of wild to say, well, good thing I didn't choose anyone else. Netflix is just going to buy everybody anyway. And I'm glad they announced it the same day owning Manhattan season two came out because I was nervous about the bandwidth, you know, for Netflix to manage all of the viewers globally.

So they had to go and buy HBO just to make sure they were okay. Indeed. Let's talk about the national housing market. I know it's less interesting than the Netflix show, but they're connected. 100%. Right? they are connected. What are you seeing in the housing? Are you seeing any loosening because, man, mortgage rates have been just stubbornly stuck at like six, six and a half percent for like a

year and a half? It's got to be frustrating for buyers and frankly for your team. Well, what's frustrating is that everyone tells me the housing market is broken and it's not broken. It is doing exactly what it was designed to do, which is the problem. The housing market, rewards scarcity, okay? And it disincentivizes mobility. Scarcity because rates are so high. 90% of all home loans are under 90% in the United States. Why would you move and go and get a new loan if you need to go buy something?

I hear it all the time. Loans are 30-year fixed, right? Why would you move? You're going to disincentivize people to move, and that's exactly what's happening. Tax code 121, right? The IRS, 1997, $500,000 deduction in capital gains on your home for married, filing jointly. 1997 is when that came out.

That was over, there was almost 30 years ago. They need to raise that. They have to raise that. You know what the price was of a median home in the United States in 1997? It was $124,000. The exception doesn't mean anything today. The tax code disincentivizes people selling their home that may have a large gain in that

house. That's why you see empty nesters with no kids at home living in a five-bedroom house. And they're not moving. Because they're not going anywhere. Because they can't afford. to sell. So you talk about, okay, 46% year-to-date listings in the United States are coming off market. It's not because people aren't getting the prices that they don't like or because they don't have another place to go. It's because it's too expensive to sell. And you have

some seasonality that's coming back too, right? And a little bit of ego. There's a little bit of, I'm not going to get my 2021 COVID price that I'm not going to sell. Or where I'm going is incredibly expensive. But most of those homes that are coming off the market are in markets that have really, really, really, really grown since COVID. So that's Miami. That's Denver. That's Houston. It's not indicative of the entire national landscape. I wonder what we do then from here. I mean, again, I wonder how much of this is still a story of super high mortgage rates. In fact, didn't slow prices as much as we thought when it first happened, but maybe it's now starting to. I don't know. I just wonder,

it kind of goes back to the affordability piece. If the mortgage rate isn't going to come down dramatically, then at some point it seems like prices will have to. No, rates aren't going to affect pricing. inventory is going to affect pricing. So if you raise the capital gains exclusion, right, I think they were actually talking about it this morning. They've mentioned it again and trying to create new policy. Take it to a million.

Right? At least, okay, the housing market isn't broken. It is following its exact design. And that is the problem. And you need to have lawmakers who step up who incentivize Americans to move again, exactly like they did in 1997. It's been almost 30 years.

It is time. We're waiting. I'm ready to go. But I would, I would argue. And you could make the argument that 6% mortgages is not historically high, but the comp with COVID lows is the problem, right? That during those a year and a half of COVID, I would argue, and I'll say it very loudly. The Federal Reserve screwed up. They left rates way too low for too long.

We went crazy. And a lot of people moved. So you had this double whammy. Do you have to explain, especially some of the newer members of your team, say, listen, this is not going to be 2021 again for a long time. If ever, if ever, don't compare yourself to that period because that was an extraordinary and terrible and weird time in American and global history. Rates don't punish the wealthy. Rates punish everybody else who are trying to figure out how they're going to go from a one bedroom to a two bedroom because they want to start a family. And so they can't start a family. There's a stat that said that the average first-time home buyer in the United States is now 40 years. old. It also used to be that if you were 30 and heterosexual in the United States, there was probably

a 70% chance that you would have had at least one baby. Today, that number is under 30% because people are nervous about affording to have a family and they're nervous about where they're going to live. And if you're going to have a baby or get married, you can't live downstairs in the basement. So you have a lot of Gen X and baby boomers who are now paying for their kids to have apartments or first-time homes so they can get out and start their life, okay, which is a little bit of a misleading indicator and that 40-year-old stats. I wonder about that. Because you do have parents who are showing up, 65, 70-year-olds who are signing those deeds. So even though it's the kid who's going to live there, it is the parents showing up with the money. But policy has to come in and make

things move. You can't affect policy every 30 years. You just can't do it. I know we have to go. But for the spring, do you anticipate a lot of volume? Or do you think it's going to be kind of slow, kind of quiet? I think 2026 is going to be one of the fastest markets we've had in the past three years. I think we're anticipating somewhere between 10 and 12% more movement in the marketplace, which is not going to be a lot, right? But an additional 400 to 500,000 homes coming to market that will actually trade in the next 12 months, that's a better market for us to be in than we are today. And I'll take better over anything. Sir Hunt to Congress raised the capital gains exclusion. That's the headline of this interview.

Why do you think I do a TV show? He's got an agenda, okay? I know. Well, it's called Owning Manhattan. Came out three days ago on Netflix. Can't wait to check it out. Global top 10. Let's go, guys. Power lunch. You got to knock that Diddy documentary off the top. That's number. You know who produced that, by the way? You told me it's 50 cents. Yes, yes, yes. So when you got to get him on. You have a choice. You can Diddy or Sir Hans, that will be taken out of context and ruin my life. But, you know, all Sir. The choice is yours. I'm going to say, exactly. Ryan, thank you very much. Let's get down to Bertha Coombs for a CNBC news update. Brian, Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, said talks in London today with the leaders of Britain, Germany, and France were productive, and that peace proposals would be shared with the U.S. tomorrow.

He also warned Ukraine is $800 million short of what it needs to buy U.S. weapons that it had planned to purchase this year with help from its European allies. and said a coalition of the willing meeting will take place this week as efforts continue to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. Alina Haba resigned today as U.S. Attorney for New Jersey just days after a federal appeals court

ruled that she was unlawfully appointed to that job. The court also disqualified her from supervising cases. Haba, who had been President Trump's personal lawyer, says she will now serve as a special counsel to Attorney General Pam Bondi. Texas announced it has launched a new cryptocurrency reserve

with a $5 million purchase of Bitcoin, the first of its kind by a state government. Arizona and New Hampshire have also passed laws to create similar funds, but haven't made a purchase yet. Brian, I guess it's easier to store Bitcoin than to store a reserve of gold. Yeah, all you need is a USB drive. Just don't lose it.

Yeah. Worth of Coombs. Thank you, everybody's scouring British landfills for the rest of your life. Coming up, while auto and homelates are soaring, USAA is set to pay its biggest dividend in the company's more than 100-year history. Could you get a check back from your insurer? Contessa Brewer, with that story. Next. Welcome back. As auto insurance and homeowners insurance rates continue to surge higher, USAA is set to return $3.7 billion. to its policyholders, which is really the largest dividend in the company's 103-year-old history.

Joining us now for that, and what this might mean for the industry is Contessa Brewer. Contest, are we all going to get a check back for USAA customers? Yeah, if you're a USAA member, then you can expect to see a rebate. It would depend on the policies that you hold for how long you've held them, but it could be as much as roughly $500 for this year. Look, USAA is an association, so its customers are also its shareholders, they all participate in the program, and it's pretty rare for a homeowners insurer or auto insurer to give a rebate or a dividend of this size because insurance like this is very volatile. But this is the biggest in USAA's history, and I talked to CEO Juan Andrade exclusively about how they made it happen. And what does this mean for auto insurance, for instance, in the coming year?

Here's what he told me. We are stabilizing our rate levels, even bringing them down on average in different states, et cetera. And this is something that I think the industry needs to do as a whole, because as we have seen, auto insurance costs, homeowners insurance costs, have created a bit of an affordability and an availability crisis in this country. In fact, we've seen that the mortgage monitor, the ICE mortgage monitor, says homeowners insurance rates have increased on average 70% over the last five years. So that affordability issue is top of mind. One of the ways that they've been able to save money at

USAA is that they have outreach to some three million members guys getting them to mitigate the risk. So they go in and they install, say, leak monitors that would alert the homeowners alert the insurer before the leak actually causes widespread damage. And all of that, he says, adds up. I just think, contest, that this is one area where consumers would love to see some price relief, you know, whether it's cash back or just, you know, signs of premiums are heading lower. And I don't know if that ever happens. It does happen. In fact, just last month, we heard an announcement from Progressive that they're going to give back a billion dollars in Florida. That is mandated by the state. The state went in, tried to overhaul its insurance

system. And so for the past three years, if you've been a progressive member in Florida, you can expect to get some sort of rebate or they're calling it a credit towards your future insurance costs in that state alone. But normally we see this like in life insurance. Northwestern Mutual just had the biggest dividend ever in the insurance industry. It was $8.2 billion for this year. And then they announced $9.2 billion for next year. Mass Mutual, New York Life also had the biggest dividends in their company's history of two and a half

billion dollars. So those members do see dividends on a regular basis. But again, in the property and casualty market, it's rarer and those dividends or rebates are more modest. Though, of course, we did see it in COVID when everybody stopped driving. Well, it's a great point and a sign where we've seen, you know, maybe the most inflation and it really squeezes people. So important to keep an eye on. Contessa, thanks. Contessa Brewer. Still to come, what Bitcoin and stocks may do this year that hasn't been done in a decade. All right. It's Monday waiting on the Fed in two days. So it seems like a good time for an RBI. And let's get random but interesting on stocks and Bitcoin because we are on pace to have

something happen that has not happened in 11 years. This could be the first year since 2014 that the S&P 500 has gone up while Bitcoin has gone down. That's right. For the year, the S&P is higher. And Bitcoin, at least for now, is lower. Kelly, that dispersion almost never happens, 2025 heading for a pretty rare year for Bitcoin to underperform stocks. And we know before you throw your diamond hands and turn them into paper, Bitcoin is skyrocketed since then. You've made a lot more money in Bitcoin than in the equity market, but this year, a little different. But a lot of people haven't been holding since 2015. Many people, look at how broad the market's gotten in the past year or two. And I'll be very curious who hangs on to it if

crypto doesn't continue to outperform. I know we take it as a given. We did that interview with strategy on Friday where the CEO said, we just expect the price to keep going higher in perpetuity. Well, I don't know if I can say that, that, you know, I would agree. And for those who aren't sure. I would say they have a vested interest in seeing Bitcoin continue to go up. Sure, but they have no business model if it doesn't. So in other way, I mean, they just, they believe it will go higher. I know many, many people do. But this year, it's a 20-point drag on the, underperformer relative to the S&P. So it's going to be a tough pill to swallow for those who got it. Granted, for those who got it. Granted, for those who got

at the all-time highs. We're still talking about high levels. All right, good stuff. Yeah, Fairpoint, watchwork. And a lot of stocks tied to it. All right, coming up, they don't call it the Widowmaker trade for nothing, why one commodity is crushing the naysayers. Welcome back, and natural gas prices are back below $5 today. But what a run they have been on, as you can see on the right side of your chart there. Now, it might be really, really cold this week, and we're going to start to see why we've had this big run up. But then in the next two they say it's going to get a little milder. Remember that $5 mark, that's about a three-year

high. Falling prices are hitting some of the gnat gas stocks that have done really well this quarter like EQT and APA. All of those names have jumped double digits over the past three months. They don't call it the widow maker for nothing. People, oh, natural gas is going to a dollar. Now it's at five. Yeah. And if you buy it five thinking it's going to TED, well, we'll see what happens next. Meantime, Netflix responding to Paramount Skydowns, this hostel bit of Warner Bros. speaking at a conference this hour. The co-ceoes of Netflix expected David Ellis's company to make the move, and they added that Netflix is, quote, very confident

that those regulators, David Faber, talked about at the beginning of the show, will go with their deal. So Netflix's confident that Netflix will win Warner Brothers. Probably not a shocker that they're confident. I guess the questions are, do they raise the price? Is there any actual change in what's on the table? I'm wondering, no matter who gets it, Does the price that our viewers and listeners pay for their Netflix subscription or Warner Brothers, whatever, does that price, it keeps going up?

Does it get even more expensive? Yes, but do they do it right away? Do they try to wait a little while? I don't know, but we've seen this stranger things happen. Thanks for watching, Power Lund.