Power Lunch - Power Lunch 6/12/26

Episode Date: June 12, 2026

CNBC’s Kelly Evans and Brian Sullivan take you through the heart of the business day bringing you the latest developments and instant analysis on the stocks and stories driving the day’s agenda. ���Power Lunch” delves into the economy, markets, politics, real estate, media, technology and more. The show sits at the intersection of power and money. “Power Lunch” gives viewers a full plate of CNBC’s award-winning business news coverage, plus a healthy dose of personality from the show’s anchors and the network’s top-notch roster of reporters and digital journalists. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And we have liftoff. SpaceX becoming the largest IPO in history. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. After kind of a more muted first trade than some bulls expected, SpaceX shares now on the move, rocketing, past $170 a share, pushing its market value north of $2 trillion of valuation that rewrites the IPO record books larger than all but a handful of companies. And Kelly, I'm told that Elon Musk is also getting richer. He added an extra comma today. We're covering this historic day from almost every angle. Sima Modi with the very latest on the IPO that has the whole world watching. Leslie Picker on how it all came together on the banking side talking about the process.

Morgan Brennan on the business behind the buzz from Starlink to Starship and Beyond will explain. And Robert Frank on Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire. We also have two SpaceX investors on set with us, Vanek's CEO John Vanek, and entrepreneur shares founder and CEO Joel Schulman. welcome to all of you. All right, we have got a lot to do, but let us go around the horn because we have got this covered from every possible angle. If there's an angle we don't have covered, let us know, and maybe we'll cover it.

Let's start with Sima Modi, who is at the NASDAQ, and I was listening on the radio, Seema, as I was driving in, listening to the build up there, and it just feels like there was so much excitement and so much joy, not for Elon Musk, but because a lot of regular people have been working for 20 years are going to get rich today. And to meet these individuals, Brian, in person, individuals from HR, VP, finance,

who now essentially are sitting on millions of dollars of stock, certainly a milestone moment for the company and a record-breaking IPO for the NASDAQ with the stock now, a market cap of over $2 trillion. SpaceX joins the ranks of some of the most influential tech heavyweights at its current price is just trading closely behind Amazon and Microsoft, but worth more than Broadcom and Tesla, which Musk took public just about 16 years ago.

Now, for retail investors who received an allocation through their brokerage like Fidelity and Charles Schwab, keep in mind there is a 15-day anti-flipping rule where investors would essentially be penalized for trying to sell during that time frame by being blocked from participating in future deals. We've also been watching SpaceX's first hours of trade, you know, in the first three hours here, shares up about 28 to 30 percent right now. The last high profile IPO, keep in mind, Cerebris, that raised about $5 billion when public on the NASDAQ last month. It closed a day higher by 68% on its first day of trade. For other perspective, Tesla was up about 40%.

So that's just one to watch just to see where things pan out by the end of the day. Once SpaceX gets through its first day of trade, our focus will certainly turn to the NASDAQ 100 inclusion. I spoke to the president of the NASDAQ Nelson-Grig's in the 11 a.m. Eastern hour, and he told me SpaceX at this point, on track. to join the NASDAQ 100 in about two weeks, guys. Amazing. Seema, thanks for now. We appreciate it.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, congratulating SpaceX for its historic public debut. In a post on X, he wrote in part, we are excited as SpaceX enters this new chapter of its journey as a public company, and we look forward to supporting their mission of advancing the frontier of human space exploration. Leslie Picker is over at the NASDAQ, Leslie.

We've heard from Goldman. You were over at Morgan this morning. A lot of different firms were involved as we know in the actual IPO, probably a few size of relief today. Size of relief, but also some decent fee halls that they were able to bring in as a result of this deal. Obviously, a $75 billion offering the largest in history for SpaceX. That, of course, is a boon for the banks that underwrote the deal. And we saw in the final prospectus that the total fee pool was about $500 million,

with the lion's share going to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, each taking in about 100. million dollars. Overall, the spread was 0.67 percent. So that's on the lower end, even on Ebola, which was now the second biggest IPO of all time, was about 1.2%. So this is about half of that in terms of the commission for each share that was sold in this deal for the banks. But still on an absolute basis, $100 million that you're bringing in today, if you're Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, is not too shabby, of course. We also have a tweet. You mentioned the one from David Solomon. There was another one that Elon Musk reposted at Morgan Stanley, which we saw in person earlier today, all of the green shoes that were walking around the floor. This was something that Elon Musk and

the company thought was funny, a nod to the green shoe over-allotment process, whereby if the stock is trading higher, they will be able to fulfill about 15% more in terms of their offering size. So that's an extra $11 plus billion if they do choose to X.com. exercise that green shoe for the company, which, of course, this is seen as a big capital raising event for them. All right, Leslie Picker, Leslie Picker, capital raising event, non-periel, I think. All right, let's bring it now a couple of space X investors. As we said at the top of the show, we got Jan Vanek, we've got Joel Schumann. Gentlemen, welcome. You can smile. There's a lot of people, you should smile your early investors. The stock

has done well. I don't know if the stock has done as well as maybe some. thought, right? Maybe like it was going to double or something. I think you're right that setting the IPO price. You know, there was a sense of, okay, well, like you said, it opened early. It wasn't that stunning on the upside, but then the sigh of relief that came from, it didn't break. It didn't do a Facebook. It didn't do an Uber. It didn't do what, you know, the list is actually quite long, a very messy first day IPOs. I just wonder if I was to be a wet blanket to some extent, if we transfer a little bit of the first day, Adjita, which we're not experiencing into Jan, whatever their earnings reports start to look like.

Yeah, I would be surprised if there's surprises in the stock. This is a very mature company, from my perspective. 25-year-old company. Yeah, exactly, exactly. It's really hard to build companies. And he's got, I would say, two companies with moats inside, economic moats, right? He's got, and one of those is AI compute. So in a way, I look at this is just another day, right?

We're in this AI megatrend. and the rest of the market, if you look at it, semiconductors are outperforming. Software companies are softer. It's just another day of this 10-year megatrend, which we at Vanek like to really focus on these megatrends. Is Joel SpaceX? I mean, we've always thought of it as a rocket company.

Right. And it is because they have rockets. They do rockets really, really well. But now we're learning there's a gigantic data center business. There's a gigantic internet global connectivity business through Starlink. What is SpaceX? So it's a three-engine empire, and each one actually has a moat. So three modes, I would argue.

And the space component puts about 90% of mass in space at a fraction of the cost of government. So the government increased over 40 years or 30 years, 54,000 kilogram to 58,000. SpaceX has brought it down to 2000, right? So they're doing a fraction of that. And now if you want to satellite up in space, you're probably doing SpaceX. So that's moat number one. Moat number two is Starlink, right? That's the cash cow. What a lot of people don't know is they have five-tier pricing mechanism. So when you think about Starlink, you've got the price for the consumer on the ground, you've got the price for defense, you've got the price for maritime, you've got the price business and business. They're all using the same satellite, and the aviation charges 313 times more than the person on the ground. That's a moat not going away anytime soon. They leapfrog cellular. They are covering every part of the plane. in this manner. Now, the third mode, which is potentially the biggest, and this is where the

optionality comes in, is the XAI, or what they now refer to, Space XAI. And that one, if they're able to get data centers in the sky, right? If they're able to do that, the cooling costs go down. The energy costs, you know, go away. If they're able to do this, and then, now that's, that's the real optionality. And I think that's why we have, you know, the premium price paid on this company. Three engines, three modes. Jan, what else? No, I think that covers it. I mean, I think part of the thing is the space name is a little misleading, right?

What they're really offering. That's exactly my point. But if you, like, have you used a Starlink phone? I have, and I used Starlink on a flight back from France about a month ago. You could watch a movie on your computer, and it worked instantly, I'm told, at landing when I wasn't on my computer. No, but the point is, it's a superior product. It's fast as at-home hardwired Internet in some cases. Yeah.

Yeah. It's just a superior product. Half the revenues from outside the United States. So once you're in space, you have the whole world as your market. But they got Leo coming. I mean, that's who Delta is partnering with, the new Amazon product that is intended to do. He's literally, he's like, whatever. I'm just putting myself in the retail investor.

There are always people trying to come grab a great market, in this case, Amazon and with Starlink. But that's why Joel's points are so important and why we're talking about competitive moats. I mean, they're throwing up, you know, they've launched 650 Falcon 9 rockets and they're doing more. And they're, you know, tweaking spaceship, which is really going to be their breakthrough for orbital compute. Does the fact that with all of this, they lost $5 billion in the latest? Does that, why, why does a company with those, with that balance sheet? The current financials are so misleading for what this business is about. You know, and the multiples are crazy.

Like, I can't believe I'm talking about the stock that's treating it 100 times revenue, right? I mean, that's not Yon Danek or our way of investing. But if you don't have to project far, like, there's no execution risk with Starlink anymore, right? That's just a growth business. All they have to do to justify, you know, round numbers, if they can get to $60 or $70 billion in annual profit. Invita prints that in a quarter. So it's not crazy for these businesses just to grow. Well, to Kelly's point, you mentioned Amazon. There's a guy named Jeff Bezos. I think it was on our network yesterday. Blue Origin, his rocket company, is kind of the closest thing to this.

Are you an investor in Blue Origin, George? So we were actually putting our money into SpaceX. That's where our money's going. And when you think about Blue Origin, I mean, they have to use the SpaceX rockets to get satellites in space. And when you mentioned Jeff Bezos, you've, you've You've been talking about, you know, Elon Musk being the first trillioner. I think Bezos isn't going to be far behind him. That's my point. If Blue Origin can even do a little bit of this. If they can.

But right now, right now Musk is worth more than Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Wong combined, right? Worth more than those four. So we've never seen an entrepreneur quite like Elon Musk. So Bezos is a very strong, an amazing entrepreneur. But Musk is, I believe, in a different category. He's better than, he's richer than Rockefeller, right? In fact, we go back, as you know, I'm an academic as well, Babson College. When you think about the greatest entrepreneurs of all time, Rockefeller made 84% of his wealth

or more than 80% of his wealth after this age, after age 54, 55. So when you think about... Also in a illegal monopoly. But that was the same, though. I mean, totally different business made most of his money after age 60s. Yeah, and then infrastructure. So when you think about that sort of parallel and cutting costs, Rockefeller was very focused in cutting costs.

There's nobody who's really focusing on cost cutting quite Lake Musk today. Final comment, yeah? No, EV's in China. I mean, he is competing in the most vicious market, one of the most vicious markets in the world. With Tesla. With Tesla, because driving costs down and using scale. That's his MO. So to you, because this is one of the, do you worry about Tesla being folded into SpaceX or combined in some way if that's necessary?

Like you said, he doesn't really bother me that much. I'm not a fan. You can drive your Tesla to your outer space data center while on your Starlink phone. That's how it's going to work. No, I haven't been drinking yet. You guys are hanging around, of course, right? I really appreciate it. Jan Veneck, Joel Schulman.

We'll see you both later this hour. We want to hear from you. Vote in today's power poll. We're asking, in fact, we're doing the poll on X, which just brings this all together. Will SpaceX finish the year higher or lower? you can also just scan that QR code to place your vote, and we will reveal the results at the end of the show. After the break, we'll bring in an investor who owns SpaceX shares directly. Plus, Morgan Brennan joins us after sitting down exclusively with the CEO of the company earlier on. Stay with us for more on this historic day.

SpaceX trading around 168 at the moment, up from its opening price of 150. Some investors are questioning whether this high valuation is justified. Let's bring in our own Morgan Brennan, who spoke with SpaceX CEO, Gwyn Schaub, well, who probably has a strong point of view, Morgan, about how to answer that question. Yeah, I mean, valuations certainly in focus, even as most of their early analyst initiations, have been, we'll call it fairly bullish here. SpaceX is focused on the future, building out a new kind of railroad for a new kind of AI-enabled industrial revolution. It's tough to compare it to other mega-cap companies, really other companies in general in the market, which is why, when I did sit down exclusively for a live second interview with SpaceX president,

and CEO Gwen Shotwell, I asked what she thinks are the key metrics for investors to watch and track. Definitely folks should be watching how we're doing on Starship. They should watch consumer growth, a consumer and enterprise growth on Starlink and Starlink mobile. And then, of course, we've got the GROC, we've got AI, we've got coding. There's a lot. There's actually a lot going on. Well, it's all going to take a lot of capital as well. That's a key reason SpaceX did go public today.

And much of that spending will happen in the AI business. That said, SpaceX has now struck lucrative but flexible contracts, one with Anthropic, the other with Google, to lease them AI compute capacity that it's not currently using. So I asked Shotwell whether investors should see SpaceX as an emerging competitor to the neoclouds and other AI data center operators, not just in space in the future, but on Earth now. 100%. We are builders. We build our own launch vehicles. we build our launch sites, and we're building data centers both on the ground as well as in orbit soon. So I look at ourselves as an infrastructure company.

You and I have talked about it, capital intensive, and you've done these types of investment cycles before. You're also competing with Open AI in Anthropic when we talk about something like Grok, the hyperscalers. Are you going to need to spend as much as those peers when you think about this over the longer term? I think our use of compute is pretty efficient, so I don't think we'll have to spend quite as much KAPX as they are. And we also demand that our coders are quite efficient in their code as well. So I, let's put this way. I hope not. I hope we don't have to spend that much money. And you guys are talking about it just a few moments ago. The fact that SpaceX has these moats, it has the moat with space launch. It also arguably has one in manufacturing and the development

of hardware, too. So unlike these software-centric models that you do see at other frontier AI companies, Shotwell saying they've been bringing some of those hardware-focused workers over to XAI as they think about that product and they product-tize it and roll it out to market it in a bigger, more meaningful way. Now, that dynamic really starts with Musk, who spends a lot of time focused on the technical capabilities and breakthroughs. Shotwell oversees the day-to-day operations and a full-time workforce of 22,000 and counting. Guys, for more on all of this, go to cnbc.com you'll find both of my exclusive sit-down interviews with gwen shotwell as well as a lot of other coverage here the last thing i'd take is you're talking about trillionaires if you've

been covering space as long as i have you've known that the first trillionaire on earth would come because of space space is unlimited and so is the economic possibility the only thing on holding it up is the technological breakthroughs and that is what SpaceX is trying to crack the code on i love it Morgan, Carl Sagan, Brennan. But Gwen Shotwell is a great example of what we just talked about at the top of the show. She is somebody, I think she's a single mom or was. She busted her butt for years. The company was on the verge of going under multiple times.

She hung in there, along with thousands of employees. There are people online that are sort of acting like, this just happened, and suddenly everybody's rich. She is an exact example of the American dream gone right. Oh, 100% she is. And you could say that so there's really two main reasons in general. That's the case for Shotwell, who is very much a rock star. And by the way, they have an extraordinary bench of talent in general at SpaceX. And a number of their C-suite executives, Shotwell, of course, being perhaps the most prominent one, but also their CFO, Brent Johnson. These are longstanding executives at SpaceX that have helped bring this company to what it is today. But you could make that case about the broader workforce. There's two reasons that this company went public. The first is to raise. a tremendous amount of capital for this new next generation spending cycle that they are embarking on. The second reason is so that, as Shotwell put it to me, the first time we sat down, everyday Americans and friends could basically be able to invest in SpaceX and realize the returns as they do embark

on this future that, let's be very clear for Elon Musk is a vision that has not changed since he started this company 24 years ago, which is to make humankind multi-planetary. All of this works together to at some point, potentially get us there, starting with Mars. Yeah, and I think it'd be cool. I don't know if she's, you know, kind of expressed this one way or another Morgan. I think it'd be great to hear from her more often now going forward.

If she's kind of, you know, on the earnings calls or just in general, I enjoyed it. I enjoyed the story from her point of view, kind of at Brian's point, is so different from, you know, what we're used to hearing from Musk. Absolutely. Absolutely.

And keep in mind, she is an engineer. in her own right. She has overseen all of the different operations and projects at SpaceX, everything from developing the reusable rockets to, you know, the realization and rollout of Starlink to now more recently the integration of XAI. This next chapter, I think, is going to be particularly interesting because despite all of the work, all of the innovations, all of the disruption across multiple industries that has happened within this company, I think what she would tell you, what Musk would tell you, what others would tell you, is that they're really still only at the beginning. This next chapter, more immediately, is probably going to include a lot more M&A

and, of course, a lot more of this buildout around AI as it does converge with space. Again, the investor should all keep this in mind. It could be a lot of movement, you know, to brace for in the months and quarters to come. Morgan, really appreciate it. Thanks for all of that. Morgan Brennan. Let's hear now from an early SpaceX investor. Chris Buskirk, he's the co-founder and CIO of 1789 Capital. What year, Chris, do you think you got in so I can estimate just how big your smile should be today. Welcome. It's a big smile for sure. We, look, we started the company in 2023, and SpaceX was one of the first investments that we made as a firm.

It's something that we wish we had started the company a little earlier, so we could have invested earlier as well, but we're extremely happy with the investments, not only in SpaceX, but we invested in X and an XAI in every round, both primary and secondary from the time that we first had the opportunity. after we started the company until now. Morgan made this reference, and I think there's a couple of things on the horizon here. First of all, the earnings report, well, I don't know if they're going to be earnings.

Their quarterly reports are coming, and I think it's going to be a wake-up call to some people that this is still going to take time to be as exciting a story as the market cap is currently giving it credit for. She also mentioned there could be some deals. There could be a deal with Tesla that people may or may not like.

There could be other kinds of acquisitions that are necessary, and all of those, I wonder if that would make you queers, easy at all. Now, look, the way I think about this is that those sorts of things, there's obviously people talk about a potential Tesla deal because there was the, the roll-up or the consolidation with X and XAI, and then Tesla sitting out there's a public company as well. Honestly, that for us, that's not the major thrust of the way we think about SpaceX as an investment. The way we think about is those three core businesses that they have,

they have launched where it's effectively a monopoly. They've got Starlink, which also a monopoly, which is growing very quickly, and now they've got compute slash AI, which is growing unbelievably quickly. I think when they do their quarterly reports, both this one and in the future, I think people are going to be very surprised at how fast that business is growing. The other things that may or may not happen in terms of M&A, whether they buy smaller companies to sort of as tuck in acquisitions, or even something like Tesla as a merger, to me, those are almost like afterthoughts because the core business is so big and is growing so quickly and so exciting. Afterthought? Really?

The tuck-in acquisitions, yeah, compared to, I mean, I think when you see the numbers that they are going to print in these upcoming quarters, I think you're going to find that the acquisitions they do while interesting are not what drives the core business. Yeah, and you guys got in, obviously, on the private level, a lot of our viewers and listeners, maybe wanted to, they can't. They're just on the access, the money, the firm, whatever it might be in the public market, Chris. I know it's not where you live. So trust me. but as just a private citizen, would you be a buyer of SpaceX stock here? Yeah, look, this is a question I've gotten a lot and our compliance people say, don't give any advice, and I don't.

I'll just say this is I think it's a great company. This is a company that has a lot of room to grow as big as it is. I think people's priors on this are like, well, it's an IPO that almost like, it almost defaults like this is a young company. It isn't. This is a 24-year-old company that's quite mature. And yet, and this is the part that's, It's amazing about SpaceX, even as a massively scaled business, it has a lot of room to run and to grow.

And so I like this business as an operating business. I like the founder, obviously, a lot. And the team that he's assembled around him has produced a corporate and an innovation culture that is second to non-worldwide. Chris, when you look at your other investments, and I think on the list here, if these are current, include everything from Anderil to Neurilk to Ramp to, you know, there's a few cerebrus that's already public. I mean, who else is now in the pipeline? Who else might be or should be or is up and coming? Yeah, I think that, you know, hardware in general, I think, is extremely interesting, both in the private and the public market.

I mean, just look at the public hardware companies, whether be Intel or Micron or Cerebras, since their IPO. What people are catching up on, I think, on the AI buildout is that, yes, the frontier model companies, which, you know, like Open AI and Anthropics, which will be coming public later this year, They're super interesting and they're unique and they're new and exciting in that way. But behind the scenes, what has to happen is a massive, massive buildout. And so anything, I think, in hardware or infrastructure is extremely compelling. Yeah.

And look, the one differentiator there is that that does take a lot of capital. It's hard. I mean, making stuff. And the investment required around that, I mean, that's why you have to raise money. Yeah, look, I was talking with another SpaceX early space. six investor last night as a friend of mine, you know, and we're kind of talking, you know, while the world was focused on, on the world of bits, which has been the most interesting place in technology for 25 years, Elon and his team were focused on mastering the world of

atoms. And that's why you see them able to build infrastructure faster and better than anybody else. Like they put up these data centers now in 60 to 90 days. It's unbelievably fast. It's a skill set that nobody else, no other hyperscaler, no other neocloud has that. And it's a, it's a huge differentiator for them. It's a great point. You remind me of Jeff Curry. He's always talking about how we're going from in my, this also abstract me. We're going from bits to Adams, right. They B to A in this case. And like you said, those who were first movers way back when it was out of favor are now reaping those rewards. Chris, thanks very much. Thank you. Chris Buck, Bus Kirk, 1789. All right. So we've got a lot more to do. Show us halfway down,

but don't go anywhere because it is official. Elon Musk, if not the first trillion, He's right there. And there's a lot of talk about taxes. We'll talk about wealth and money and taxes and SpaceX and more. Next. I'm welcome back. Well, the richest man in the world has done something that no other human has ever done. And that is to become a trillionaire.

Maybe that could be a movie. Robert Frank joining us down. We should make a movie called Who Wants to Be a Trillionaire? Who must be a trillionaire? There would be one person in that movie at this point, Brian. It is surprising. So based on that current price of just under $170 a share, Elon must stake in SpaceX worth about $870 billion.

You add to that, his Tesla share is worth about 280. And you get a total right now of about $1.1 trillion. But it's not just him that's making a lot of wealth today. There is just a huge amount of liquidity and wealth being created. Gwynchott, while the president, now at $2.2 billion. The CFO, Brett Johnson, he's now at $1.6 billion. You've got Luke Nosek.

He was an early investor, a friend of Elon's from the PayPal days. His stake worth $5.5 billion. And then Brian and Kelly, you've got to take consideration to hear all of the thousands, perhaps even more than that, of SpaceX employees who are now millionaires. These are folks who have worked for the company for years. They took below market salaries in exchange for. for stock they never imagined would be worth what it is today. This is like winning a lottery for thousands of people at SpaceX

who just never even dreamed, even in their wildest dreams, that they would be worth this much money. And guess, I think, Robert, that somebody else is going to get a lot of money. And my guess is the federal government is going to get a lot of money, and some state governments are going to get a lot of money. I understand there's going to be a lot of pretty powerful, people with megaphones calling for Elon Musk's money. Fine. Let's leave him aside. This is, I would imagine, going to be a pretty sizable tax windfall for the federal government and state governments.

Is it not from all the capital gains, income taxes, sales taxes on the stuff that is bought with this money? Governments, I think, are going to make billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars also off this IPO, even without Elon Musk. There's going to be a revenue impact. One of the biggest issues we're going to look for here is in California, because even though the company moved its headquarters from California to Texas, Brian, as you know well, a lot of the employees are still in California, particularly those early shareholders. The expectation is, well, this is going to be a huge windfall for California. The problem with that is that a lot of the stock is in the form of restricted stock units,

not to get too complicated, but you know your taxes. When you get restricted stocks, you tax stock units, you pay income taxes at the ordinary income rate once you receive them. And then if you sell them, you pay the capital gain on top of that. But the point being, they've already paid taxes on a lot of this stock. And so maybe the upside is not as great as it would be in the past where you're just talking about options that haven't really been exercised or paid any taxes. You can borrow money. If you're a SpaceX employee, you can borrow money on that stock to buy something. You don't have to wait to sell it, I would imagine, which means sales taxes.

I'm just pointing out there's going to be a tax windfall from this IPO even without bringing the must guy into the conversation. Totally. And you're absolutely right to point out this is going to further ignite the debate over inequality. You've already seen a lot of press releases today from groups. No individual should be worth a trillion. at a time when the top is doing well and the bottom is struggling with inflation. So that debate is just going to accelerate.

But you're absolutely right as well. There will be a big tax revenue gain in both the federal government as well as the state government, particularly in California. We just don't know how large that will be in the state of California. Texas and Florida, they don't have income taxes, so less of an issue there. All right. Robert, thank you again. Appreciate it very much, our Robert Frank. Let's turn now to someone who gave retail.

access to SpaceX before it was public, Moritz Pot. He is the CEO of Tima ETFs, and they own SpaceX through an SPV and their NASA ETF. I think I followed that. I think the point, Moritz, is that people, it sounds like your clients are therefore benefiting from this IPO going relatively well today. Yeah, well, thanks for having me on the show today. Yeah, so, you know, we are the first and only space ETF that offered SpaceX to investors before the IPO.

You know, Ranti, it's a small percent of the overall fund, but overall it's obviously contributed to the fund given we're able to buy ahead of the IPO listing. Explain to me. It is exciting. We'll come back to that in a second. Just one technical question. What does it mean that people had access through a special purpose vehicle?

So basically, the ETF invested into SpaceX through an SPV that was provided through a Schwab subsidiary called Forge. So investors basically had a part of the portfolio. It was exposed directly to SpaceX through an SPVV. PV. And that way, investors were able to get exposure to the company before it was listed on public markets today. Yeah. And that opened it up to a broader range of investors. Why is it structured that way? So that was the only way that investors could, through an ETF, access SpaceX ahead of the IPO. And our view was that the space economy is so driven by SpaceX. Offering a space ETF without

SpaceX, frankly, misses the biggest revenue contributor, but also innovator in the overall space economy. So now do you, and I know a lot, there's been so much more interest in private markets because of exactly the conversation that we're having. So is this IPO going to spark more interest in other private companies? Is it going to hopefully get more private companies to maybe think about, you know, look at what can happen if you go public? What do you think the ramifications will be? I think Durati, that the companies are staying private for longer. As companies say private for longer, there's more interest for everyday investors to get involved in private companies. ETFs is just one way investors can increasingly get involved. The Rati,

There's still a limited amount of available stock in private companies that can be offered through an ETF. And there's also concentration and liquidity restrictions through an ETF. So the RATF is one vehicle. It's a relatively new vehicle to offer private exposure. And we've seen strong adoption of a space ETF with SpaceX since it's launched 12 weeks ago. All right. Moritz, thanks. Good to check in with you.

Morath's part of the TEMA ETFs. Now, SpaceX shares might be doing nicely today, but still, it's not the only story we're watching. market, the doubt of 402 points as oil prices are down and we have some new developments on the Iran war. We'll talk about that right after the break. All right, SpaceX, the big story, but it's not the only story that we are watching. Oil prices, they are down again on some headlines that the U.S. and Iran are getting closer to making a deal. Or Amon Jabbers joining us now. Amen, as we talked about yesterday, maybe a deal to make a deal.

Like this is like a framework of a possible deal that could turn into a deal. Yeah, Brian, I think that's close to it, a senior administrator. official brief reporters in the last hour on this potential deal with Iran to end the war that's coming together behind the scenes. Now, the official said that he would have said a deal was a 70% possibility earlier today, but now in the last hour he puts it at about an 85% chance in what he said were the next few days. Now, the key point that this official wanted to make is that the deal coming together is contingent on the Iranians hitting verified benchmarks and that the regime only gets economic benefits once those benchmarks have been reached.

Now, he said, we're not quite at the finish line yet, but we are very close. That said, he suggested there is still a lot of work to do, saying that the technical aspects of how exactly the U.S. would take possession of nuclear material in Iran still has to be worked out, given the dangerous and complex nature of that operation. He said that Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz has weakened in recent days, which was one element that has shifted the balance of power in the talks over the past 48 hours or so. And he did say the Iranians would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. would end its blockade as part of the deal. But he didn't say when that would happen.

And finally, the senior administration official did not say how much money the United States would be giving the Iranians over the course of this deal. So a lot still to be worked out here. But it does seem like something is coming together behind the scenes, Brian. A significant move. And again, there is apparently some market reaction as well. Amen, thanks. Let's turn back to our panel. Jan Banek is the CEO of Vanek funds.

And Joel Schulman is the founder and CEO of entrepreneur shares. And so we mentioned this, Dow's up 400 points. I mean, coming into the SpaceX IPO, Joel, give us to you first, there had been pressure on the markets. I mean, we started to see a bit of, you know, a pullback for the first time in some of the AI infrastructure areas. They were concerned about capital being pulled from the mega caps. Right. Have we now between better Iran news and the way that this has gone today, have we cleared some of those worries? Well, I think we have. I mean, to your point, the market got a little rich in some areas. We saw some companies that got a little head of themselves. We saw numerous companies trading multiples in the 100 to 120 to 150 market cap to revenue. Those are a little frothy. Unlike the SpaceX story, which we're talking about today, they did not have a moat. And so when you don't have a moat and you're trading that level, that's a

problem. And of course, we saw the AI trade also, you know, getting a little frothy, you know, towards a fourth quarter, first quarter here. So if we have a peace situation, a peace deal finally, that would be encouraging some of the reallocation you talked about right now, some of the money, you know, certainly as a portfolio manager, there's got to be a reallocation without new inflows coming in. If you have a $1.75 trillion, $1.7, now it's $2 trillion plus coming in. You've got to reallocate some of your portfolio. And we would normally, normally, expect some depression in the rest of the market. I think that's what we're seeing today. I know the SpaceX IPO is historic, but so is this market rally on. And because unless something

crazy happens the next hour and 15 minutes, we're going to end this week higher. That would mean the S&P 500 has risen 10 of the last 11 weeks. And last week, we came within a couple tenths of a percent from ending the week higher. We are this close to having an 11 week straight rally on the S&P 500, led by big tech. Does that worry you at all? I mean, it's great news. It's profit driven. But I don't know about you.

I kind of like it when we sell off a little bit because it's healthy, it's normal, and it reminds people that stocks have risk. Yeah, but it's an amazing time to be an investor for good reasons. These big bag seven companies have profit prints that are insane. They're insane. You're insane. on year profit growth. I heard 20% EPS growth estimates

for the next seven quarters. 120%. Year and a half? Yeah, year and a half. 120% year on year, Tesla. 80% Google, right? I mean, these are not startups. This is not SpaceX 10 years ago.

These are the biggest cap companies and they're pulling the market up, right? So I'm comfortable, you're right, there are frothy areas. Like the space companies traded up, we have a space ETF, traded up, you know, kind of anticipation of this IPO. Their valuations are a little nutty.

But, yeah, but other than that, like, Invidia, you know, the core of SMH, the semiconductors, which are the core of the AI trade, totally reasonably priced. And there are other bargains in the market as well, private credit, blue owl. Was there bargains you think? You're not worried about the risk? No. Okay. I mean, is the economy falling apart? What was the big credit risk?

Yes, I know SaaS companies and all that kind of stuff. And that's an important story today as well. Okay. So to that point, I agree with Envidia. In fact, this is a company we bought 21 years ago, and we see SpaceX being the next long-term buy and hold. But when you think about the productivity that's going on right now, that we have revenue per employee at record level.

So when you think about just Nvidia and what they've done, three years ago, it was one million revenue per employee. Now it's six times million dollars per employee. So the productivity using AI models and other things, they're getting more revenue from fewer employees. And when you think about companies like App Lovin, it's $8 million per employee. These are extraordinary numbers. Am I missing? Did I start a company?

I think you should. You can't be that hard, right? I would have Brian in as a junior partner. Junior partner. Junior partner, young? You said it. You said before you should always get some upside some share. 49.9% sounds good. That's a junior partner technically, right? I'm not, you know, mathing.

Gentlemen, thanks. I guess my quick final question, Joel, just to put an exclamation point on it, then, does this change the outlook for what the S&P can do for the rest of the year? I think it does. I mean, in fact, we're talking about the S&P 500. We know that the S&P did not allow fast-tracking technically. But there's $7 to $10 trillion that's tracking it in the passive indices. There's probably another $7 to $10 trillion that's active managers or management. who use the S&P as a benchmark. Those guys are coming in. And when we see the indices start to come in in one to two weeks, and we've already seen people probably slowly drip in,

that's going to be a big push. I think this is going to be a stock that's going much higher at the end of the year. It's the mechanical stuff. You're talking about the reallocation. They've got to buy it. They've got to balance it out. It's amazing. You guys are amazing.

Everything was amazing, except for the junior partner thing. Everything else was great. Guys, thank you very much. All right, SpaceX. Obviously, that stock moving higher and higher and higher, but there's other companies out there that are kind of competitors. They're being sold today. We'll show you those names and then bring in Oliver to talk about some of the options bets that are being placed now.

Stick around. All right, SpaceX getting all the attention and investor love today. But there are some other space-related companies out there and they're not doing well today. Let's show them to you. Okay, there are really four names that are sort of in the Space X halo, if you will. Let's walk through those names very, very quickly. Right now. Okay. So if you've got, you've got Rocket Lab, that stock down about 9%. It's the biggest market cap of the non-must name. Still had a 300% gain in a year. So it's done very well.

Firefire Aerospace, first commercial company to land on the moon. Voyager technology, Denver-based space equipment company. Again, down today, but the stock's up 57% in six months. And then the second biggest of the names, AST SpaceMobile, $33 billion market cap company, space-based mobile internet company, kind of a close Starlink-ish type company. So if you're in this Halo today, stocks are doing terribly, but all of them have done well over the last few months. Meantime, there's two other big stories to watch around SpaceX itself. Number one is that it's going to be added to the NASDAQ 100, but not for 15 more days. And two, SpaceX options. They're not trading yet, but they will trade next week. But even that gap is not stopping some options.

traders from maybe making some moves ahead of it. Oliver is in Chicago and has more. Oliver, we talked about this a little bit last night on fast money. There's kind of SpaceX proxy-ish companies, right? That's right, Brian. But traders who were in those stocks are learning today. There ain't nothing like the real thing. SpaceX and the IPO is certainly taking up all of the talk and the trading. However, some of the options traders do think that it could just be a hiccup for the space here today. When you look at some of the trades going off and big names like Echo Star, which owns 3% of SpaceX. It's trading 20 times average daily volume with calls more than double puts.

One trader spent a million dollars on a call spread today, buying 1,250 September 115 calls and selling the 150s. A bet Echo Star could rally as much as 35% in three months. Now, if you think today is exciting, just wait until SpaceX options start trading on Tuesday. Traders have made it clear they are eager for derivative forms of exposure to this company, whether it's through options on proxy stocks or perpetual futures on SpaceX through blockchain-backed exchanges like Hyper Liquid, which it should be noted tracked at this IPO basically perfectly. And by the way, SpaceX's debut under $200, I think keeps it relatively affordable for retail traders who have proven they don't mind paying expensive premiums when volatility is high,

which is exactly what we expect for those options next week, Brian. All right, I'll pick it up from here. Oliver, thanks. It's going to be, again, so many interesting days ahead of us. Let's discuss what impact this debut will have on other Blockbuster IPOs on deck. And I have a few more questions as well for our next guest, Gil Luria. He's head of technology research at DA Davidson. Gil, you're such a straight talker, which I always appreciate. So a question from earlier, now that we've cleared this hurdle,

do you think there's a sigh of relief for the mega-cap stocks, broadly speaking? or are we still in this atmosphere where people are really worried about the CAPEX plans and their ability to monetize? Well, I'd say what's going to continue is the drain on capital. As you pointed out, this is a very small part of the flow that's going to continue to come out. So as investors free up capital to invest more in SpaceX, they're going to be taking it out of other large technology stocks, especially ones that are longer-term bets and bets on AI. So that drain will continue with leading up to the OpenAI IPO and the Anthropos, IPO, which will be further drains on capital, not to mention that the mega caps themselves

have started going to the market for equity as Google did last week. So there's going to be a lot of drain on capital from the market. It's a race to raise capital in order to build out AI infrastructure, and SpaceX just jumped into that race. It's, you know, we're creating a lot of capital here in some ways. We're draining it. So are we just moving the money around, Gil? I mean, what happens to crypto? There's a there's a powerful argument being made that this is money that was once in crypto and it's out. It's just going into Elon Musk has told a better story. He gets the capital now and we'll see if open AI and Anthropa can meet that. Yeah, for now it's zero sum. Investors have had long-term

risky bets. Crypto was one of them. There's other very far-reaching AI bets on nuclear and quantum, et cetera. And those are now moving a lot of that is that. now moving to betting on SpaceX, because that is a very long-term bed. Obviously, we're not talking about a stock that's trading on current fundamentals. We're talking about a stock that, as you've had many guests today, talk about, is trading on hopes and dreams. And so other places that we're trading on hopes and dreams, some of that capital is moving here. Now, big picture, we are creating value, right? AI is making us all more productive. There's a lot of real economic activity happening. That is making the pie bigger. But in the short term, in

week-to-week-term data trading day to trading day, we are moving capital from other very high-risk long-term bets into SpaceX today and over the next few weeks. Is this a bit of a proxy for how OpenAI and Anthropic and other AI companies may ultimately IPO and trade? I know Dan Primak talked about that in Kelly's show in the hour before because this is largely a data center company. People don't realize that, but it is.

Is this significant for other? others in the market, Gil? There are some parallels in that OpenAI Anthropic, again, open-ended growth stories with tremendous amount of growth that could be a very big part of the future. The big difference is Elon Musk now has a 15-year track record of being CEO of a publicly-traded company, Tesla, where public company investors have made a lot of money. So as public company investors jump into SpaceX today, part of the reason they're doing that is that Elon has made them a lot of money over the last 15 years.

Where Anthropic and Open AI, for as exciting as their technology is, don't have that track record yet. So for as volatile as I expect SpaceX to be, and it's going to be volatile, Open AI and Anthropic may be even more volatile when they come out. Gil, I often think of you as kind of covering the Mag 7, maybe X Netflix or you know, you do kind of like the big tech ones. What's the new Mag 7? Everybody senses it. We've seen mangoes, maybe incorporating some. some of these new IPOs this year. What is the new Mag 7?

Is it just SpaceX? It's in there. I would just think about who is going to deliver the future of AI, of robotics, of compute. And it includes some of our old favorites, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta. Now it includes SpaceX. It's always included Tesla. It includes other companies like TSM and AMD and Broadcom and Micron. These are all the companies that we will need in order to deliver that future around AI, around robotics,

and now around space exploration too, which is something that SpaceX is going to move forward and needs this capital for. All right, Gil, thanks. It's good to see you. Appreciate it today. Gil Loria. Let's reveal the results of today's power poll now. We asked, will SpaceX finish the year higher or lower? It's very close, but 53% say lower, 47% say higher. We just made a market. See, we're in prediction markets too. That's literally how markets are made. We said we should start a company.

There it is. Did anybody else think of this already? Yeah, our producers, which are part of this company. But by the way, speaking of companies, let's just get a quick check on how well some companies have done this week, not named SpaceX. Look at these week today gains, Kelly. KLA Corp, Sandisk, favorite company of our producer, Jake.

Intel's up 26% this week. And apply materials, not upload. but the other app, A-MAT, also of 25% this week. The story is still intact. It's an AI story. It's an earnings story. You could argue it's even more intact now that we've cleared this first hurdle of the SpaceX IPO. It went, as many have said, about as well as it could go.

Why do we say that? Because we've seen mega-IPOs in the past take hours to open, trade-heavy, almost trade too high. I mean, you don't want that either. This one is still about 20. By the way, the prediction markets had the closing print, I think, at 169, so they strike. break again. They might get it exactly right. We're done though. Thanks for watching. Closing bells are right now.