Power Lunch - Power Lunch 8/27/26

Episode Date: August 27, 2026

CNBC’s Kelly Evans and Brian Sullivan take you through the heart of the business day bringing you the latest developments and instant analysis on the stocks and stories driving the day’s agenda. ���Power Lunch” delves into the economy, markets, politics, real estate, media, technology and more. The show sits at the intersection of power and money. “Power Lunch” gives viewers a full plate of CNBC’s award-winning business news coverage, plus a healthy dose of personality from the show’s anchors and the network’s top-notch roster of reporters and digital journalists. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The green light for stocks as technology leads yet again. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan. Kelly is back on Monday. Don't worry. I want to kick things off by noting what we kind of talked about in the last hour. What a weird kind of day it is for the market because every major metric is higher. Stocks, oil, bond yields, crypto, and more. It also happened the other day, but I can assure you it is very rare. But what also makes it weird is that inside the stock market, only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors is higher. Technology, in other words, technology is so big, so powerful. It is literally dragging the entire market higher.

The next catalyst, though, maybe for your money? Kevin Warsh, the Fed Chair, taking center stage tomorrow morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Steve Leesman is there. We're going to bring you all that you need to know. And yeah, as Steve said in the last hour, if we got a countdown clock, and we do, you know that it's big. All right, we have got a lot to do. And we begin with the tech bulls, not just breathing a sigh of relief, but actively putting a lot of money to work. Invita at stock soaring up 9%. That is its best day since April of 2025. Quarterly revenue more than doubling.

And the market loved that the company not only gave guidance, but gave strong guidance of an expected 70% jump over the next year. CEO Jensen Wong saying that AI has, quote, reached its inflection point. Demand is super strong and incredibly it's accelerating. We're seeing AI being adopted all over the world. Every single country wants to get involved. Every country needs to, every company wants to get involved. And that blockbuster quarter reigniting or igniting the AI trade, some chip stocks that stumbled a little bit this quarter,

they are flexing their muscles today. Invidia, Cretto, Broadcom, Astera, Intent. they're all higher. And get this, even though the entire market is up, like we said, it's really just all about technology. So is that really the sign of a healthy market? Or should you just not care if one group and one group alone, today anyway, is pulling up the entire market higher? Let's kick off our opening panel here on Power Lunch to talk more about that. Baird, Stratigate's chief market strategist, Chris Verone and KKM Financial, CIO, Jeff Kilprud. It's like you guys just appeared out of nowhere. We had a thing.

I turned and looked and then boom, there you are. Chris, I'll start with you. Please. Do we care that it's only technology that's up today? Brian, let's not read too much into one day's price action. This has been a highly rotational market, really over the last 12 weeks or so. I would remind the viewer, 75% of the SMPs above the 200 day right now. This has been a very broad advance when you kind of go back to that mid-May period.

Really early June when the momentum factor began to peak, began to see groups, like health care and financials really take the baton. I like the fact that Nvidia is back involved here. I mean, this is a stock that's been dead money for the better part of the last year. Deadish. It's up 14% coming into today. That's not a great year, but I would take 14%. It's not a bad year.

It's been in a 230 to 190 range for the better part of the last year, while a lot of its peers have certainly run. I would really like to see this breakout above that 230 level. I think it reignites this kind of mag-7 hyperscalor trade. Yeah, and Jeff Kilberg, I know. know you made a great call on Intel, a number of months ago. Stock, I think you still like. And I reference Intel, not just because it's up today, but because Nvidia today is gaining about an Intel of value today. I mean, I'm running out of hyperbole here. And that says

something, Jeff. It does. It does. What do we make of this? Are these numbers too good? Well, that's the context where you think we're forgetting. We go yesterday's year. We talked about Apple leading away. Wherever Apple goes, the market goes. But now, Now, this $5 trillion behemoth that NVIDIA just came out and talked about the decelerating growth that every analyst was talking about. It's not happening. So here we are with massive numbers, but it is going to help lift high tide lifts all boats. There's a hyperbo we haven't used yet today.

Okay. But at the end of the day. Maybe bathwater. You've got to throw that one in there somewhere. But if you look at the AI infrastructure, the networking, the whole build out of data centers, we're going to see everything move higher. So from applied materials to Intel, look at cyber, look at some of these software names. It's like a one-two punch.

So I don't want to get overly optimistic, but I think Invidia, this is the green light. We are going to have new all-time highs. The Vicks down in 14-15 land. I think we have a great September. And I do really think that people had a sigh of relief when you saw those gigantic. It's so hard to put it in context how big these numbers are coming out in Vividia because we become conditioned to them always winning. You know, I gave Chris, I gave the baseball reference earlier.

It's like if a player had a five home run game and you're like, well, you know, Oh, you'd never do that again. And then the next day hit six home runs. And we'll never do that again. And then it goes on and on. I mean, that's kind of how I feel about Envidia. How much is this about, not about that they gave 70% revenue growth guidance for the next fiscal 12 months. How much of this rally, though, today is not just about the 70%.

It's about they were able to give the guidance. We talked about a little bit the last hour. The fact that Nvidia has enough clarity on its own business that sort of gives that the market, that clarity of guess what? But we know the spending is happening. It's not changing, at least not for a year. Well, Brian, we look at the world through the lens of price action. And when you think about what happens in uptrends, you tend to get surprised to the upside in uptrends. And after 12 months of digesting what was a remarkable 24 and 25, the surprise here was to the upside.

This entire one year of digestation, Nvidia never broke below its 200 day. So I think when you look at what the resolution here is higher above, 230 is the call. I would also note, Brian, today you have software and semis up. There haven't been too many days this year where that's been the case. So this is not just by semi-sell software or vice versa. This is both of them here working together. And I think honestly, when you look at the QQQQs just to co-tail what you were talking about, the QQQQs took over its 50-day moving average day. If you go back just about a month half ago, we saw a 10% correction. It was brief, but nonetheless, here we are with the

Q's back near all-time high. So I think there is some breadth, despite the fact that NVIDIA is leading the way. But when you talk about that 70% growth, this isn't on 100 billion or 150 billion in annual revenue. This is on 450 billion in revenue. That's where I think there's more room to run. This is not a one-day pop. I'm actually surprised solely. We didn't actually see the video move

higher. Than an 8% gain. Yes, absolutely because the context of... It's adding $400 billion in market cap today. But people were... Today! But people were forecasting that this deceleration was going to be much more significant down to 60-50%, which I think

Apple, around 10-year average, they were growing at 6.5%. So, again, we've become so conditioned. But I'm not trying to get too giddy about this. No, no, you should be listening. I love him Chris brings up the fact that we are seeing software participate. You should be getting. Look at Palantier. Look at some of these. Cybersecurity.

Cybersecurity. So let's talk about that. I want to talk about the market structure, the market total, Chris, because, and I'm not being negative. I want to be clear, like, people are making money day, and that's great. My job is to sort of take the other side of things. So I just don't hate the messenger. I think, I think this is the third day this year where a company has gained more than $400 billion in market cap.

Nvidia did it earlier this year. They're doing it today, is Microsoft also did it. There might have been a fourth. I don't know. I'm making this up. Salesforce is up 22% right now. Crowdstrike was up 20% earlier today. Why are we moving? These sizable trades, why is this? happening, Chris. Used to be good news and move a stock 4%. Now it's moving to stock 20%. I think for the last kind of decade of this low growth environment, if you look at where the analyst estimates are, they'd always be within a penny of each other. And now we're in this environment where there's such a rapid change, where you're seeing beats of just huge proportion. I'm not sure the analysts are well equipped to build the models to forecast what the numbers are going to be. I think the bigger story, Brian, is when you look at the environment that we're in

today. I think the debate everyone is having is at what level bond yield does all of this start to fall apart. So, Chris, for on my question to you is, what level bond yield does all of this start to fall apart? My observation would be very simply, the fact that money is rotating within the equity market says we have yet to find the level of yield where money leaves the asset class of stocks. I don't know whether that's 5, 525, 550. I think what we want to watch for is when does the leadership start to shift more defensively? We've had this big run in hell. We've had this big run in healthcare, but without staples, without utilities, without rates. So I think we're still a far cry from the defensive messaging that you typically see a company higher yields that suggest the

economy. And that's why, Jeff Kilberg, and I know we're going to keep you around for the next block on bonds as well, but that's why I referenced at the top of the show and everything up rally. Because bond yields are up and oil's up, and we could say oil's leading bonds, whatever, and yet the macro market is up. Normally when yields have gone up, we've seen stocks at least wobble a little bit. It's a complicated environment. One thing that is down today, Sully, is the VIX. So you are seeing 30-day expectations for these equities to continue to go higher. But there are a lot of things we need to unpack. Obviously, tomorrow out in Jackson Hole, we're looking to hear what that's going to look. September 9 is going to be a big day. But I think equities right here right now,

to Christ's point, we saw such a washout in software, overdone, oversold. Yesterday, didn't get enough attention because Nvidia was the crown jewel yesterday. But what we saw was Salesforce, Anthropic, that really kind of gave a relief that software's not dying. There will be some casualties, but software will be reinforced, galvanized, fortified by some these AI models. I feel like Mark Betioff did kind of a master stroke yesterday with Jim Kramer, and that he appeared with Dario Amadeh. We talked about it like this, the optics, Chris, we're good.

Like, here I am with, you know, what people viewed as my competition, and we're going to hug it out. I think the market also liked seeing that. So when you look at, say, Salesforce, Adobe, the kind of legacy software names, big rallies the last couple of weeks, big rally today. I would still be a little bit mindful that the long-term trends are still lower in many. I own Oracle and IBM. There have been laggards all year, you're right. If we're going to kind of focus on the leadership, right, what is already making new highs, the way the cyber names have acted here, and not just the last couple weeks, but really all year, whether it's Palo Alto or CrowdStrike, Fortinant.

These are the leaders within software. The worst performing stock in the S&P 500 right now is Hormel. Software up, spam down. You love that chilly, don't you? Software up, spam down. But I guess cybersecurity is doing something about spam, the other kind. See what I did there? Chris Verone?

Pretty good. It's all right. It's average, but I appreciate you're not. You're very good. And I appreciate being here. Chris, thank you very much. Jeff Kilberger. We're going to see you back.

Talk about bonds in a moment. Let's get out of Kate Rooney, who's got some new, new news out of San Francisco. Brian, this one is about. Anthropic, the AI giant is moving further into robotics and hardware ahead of its IPO. They just announced a new set of what they're calling standards. It's for other companies designed for medical devices. They talk about robotics, manufacturing. They built what is called a standard interface so vendors can basically just take this out of the box.

And it's not an AI model per se. It is a way for the underlying tech to basically speak to some of the hardware when they're building it in a much simpler way. So Anthropics team gave us this analogy, I think is helpful. It's like a USB cord. So it tries to standardize things between devices. You can think of it almost as an electrical port. So the port means that any device you want to use can just be plugged in. It's a way to really try to simplify this.

One early partner they mentioned is Genentech, so early drug development there. They have devices in a closed environment as part of that. They are starting with medical and manufacturing. But again, a lot of potential upside. And it does come as Anthropic tries to diversify and grow into new areas ahead of its IPO. Also some personnel news as part of this that does fit into the strategy. It looks like opening eyes, head of robotics who left earlier this year around the time of the Department of Defense controversy. She has now joined Anthropic and is working on robotics.

This is Caitlin Kailanowski. It's according to her LinkedIn. So before opening I, she was also head of META's VR team. So it would take that as another signal of Anthropics ambition here pushing into hardware, Sally. All right, moving into hardware. Every day, a new announcement. I love it. Kate Wernie, thank you very much.

All right, new news. All right, on deck. Nike's year going from bad to worse. We're going to give you some stats you've got to hear. Plus, we just kind of talked about it, how Salesforce may have ended one nasty thought around software. At first, the latest from Jackson Hole. Steve Leespin, next. I welcome back, investors, preparing for the next potentially market-moving event. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh giving his highly anticipated keynote address the Jackson Hole Economics, symposium tomorrow morning. Senior economic supporter Steve Leesman is in Jackson Hole ahead of that big speech. We got Jeff Kilberg still here, CEO of KKM Financial. Jeff, of course, known for stocks and

ETS, but actually traded bonds, right, in a previous life? Over a decade with Rick Centelli. Well, maybe we'll bring Rick in here too as well. Steve, we talked about it a bit. To your point, we do have the countdown clock. My friend, what are we counting down to? Well, of course, I'm reporting to you here from the base of Mount Doom, where I believe Kevin Warsh's job will be to take the one monetary policy ring to rule them all and drop it into the mountain and come up with a new policy, I suppose. But I think what we're waiting for is not, you know, what he says about policy, but if you talk about policy at all, and I want to remind you, Brian, of the results of our CNBC Fed survey this week where 32% believe he'll be hawkish, 19% think he'll be neutral, and 45% percent. don't think we're going to get any information at all about his outlook for policy. I tend to think he'll give a little bit because I think what he might realize is that, look, people said that we're whining about not receiving any information about what the Fed thinks.

But at the end of the day, Brian, it's okay. We can live in a world of more uncertainty about the Fed. It's just going to cost everybody more. The market just has to price that in. And I don't think that's the most efficient way of going about the business of the Fed or the business of the fixed income market. market and the $40 trillion of debt that the Treasury has to sell. I don't think you're calling Warsh Soron. I want to make, I want to make that very clear.

No. No, he's Frodo. He's the good guy in this thing. So what would be the bad guys? Is the Soron then the level of debt, the soroning level of U.S. debt, the rising deficits? What is the evil eye over that volcano? We're doing Lord of the Ring stuff here, folks. I mean, I think the evil eye is inflation here. I must I haven't thought that through all that well, but you know, you can take any metaphor to not make it make any more sense anymore, which is where I might be at this point. But the thing is that inflation is the problem, and the question is whether or not it goes away on its own or do they have to fight the army of orks to get there and make it happen. You can see what's happening with the 10-year treasury. There's been a little intervention or talk of intervention by the treasury.

Some of that has worked a little bit, at least to take it off the worst edges that were out there. But there's a question also as to whether or not, you know, Wors said he wants a better look at the markets without intervention from Fed speak. Well, he's got intervention from the Treasury now to maybe take away some of the clarity of that signal. All right. Let's bring in another voice. Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, what is the bond market expecting tomorrow? What does the bond market maybe want to hear tomorrow? Well, you know what? Forget all my charts, folks in the room. Put just that one month chart, this chart in July. Month-to-date chart of 10-year yields. Look at this chart, Sully.

What do you think it's telling us? That's the entire month of July. It's stochastic. It's moving sideways. Granted, it's mostly at the higher yields, which makes perfect sense, but I would answer it this way. First of all, when Steve's talking, I think we should be playing music like they used to play for the soap operas. This is like a soap opera with the Fed. And to me, it makes very little sense because the Fed is not the issue here.

and consider this, if debt and deficits was finally something, and thank God, it's now being a topic because I think it needs to be, why aren't the Democrats who think they're going to take both houses, why aren't they telling us about how they're going to tackle Social Security, how they're going to make life more affordable? No, no, no. I don't hear any of this, okay? This is a tempest and a teapot, and I certainly don't think that the chairman in some speech tomorrow is going to give up his optionality, so that the press can paint them and make boundaries and put him in the box. He hasn't answered one question yet as to what his favorite metric for inflation is. Pals might have been the PCE. We have no idea what his is.

And that isn't by accident. When the committees are done evaluating how they're going to remake the data points, as you heard Moran talking about this morning, maybe we'll know more. But at this point, you know, I think he's going to definitely have a, speech tomorrow, but I guarantee you the media in total will be highly disappointed. If I could just jump in for one second, fellas, and this is from a former bond trader

in Chicago, almost 20 years, trading bonds. But I think the market, or bond traders in general, have been conditioned. Previously, our chair people were academics. We saw Bernacki. We saw Yellen. All of a sudden, we transitioned to Powell, who was not an academic, not a PhD, like the previous chair persons.

A lawyer. But it was a lawyer. Now all of a sudden we have an investment banker. So did we get two conditioned previously to that communication because now he's a trader. He's an investment banker. So is that the rub, Steve? Is that the digestion period that everyone's kind of freaking out about?

You know, I think for sure Kevin Warsh comes from a different background and the question becomes the extent to which he is listening to markets or believes he has the answers already. I think that's one of the issues. And I'm not sure what Rick means by a soap opera. What we hear talking to people

who run these big books of bonds is love? Look at the charts. If those big people were trading what they're telling you, the charts would look different. We haven't made a new high yield, which was last day in July. When was the Treasury announcement on the 18th of August? I'm sorry, but the charts don't bear that out. They bear out that the press is making this a soap opera. Rick, when you call a person who runs billions of dollars of bonds and they tell you, you know, that they would like that more information.

I'm not calling anybody anything. We should do this on. You should maybe get on the phone to some people. I can be the U.S.C. referee here, guys. I am. They agree with me. Rickster. Kevin Warsh is going on his 100th day.

What's going to be different tomorrow has been previews? Nothing, in my opinion. I'm with the 45% on that survey, Steve. So I think it's been more of the same. He's going to obfuscate policy. But that is his optionality, and that's his choice, I guess. And I'm saying that the people I talk to say that is fine. Talk to different people.

When you're running, let me finish, one time. When your job is to run a book, and you have to price N plus 1, N plus 1, N plus 2, N plus 3, N plus infinity, it really is helpful to know or have a good idea of a basis of what N is and what it

might be tomorrow, N being the base of the curve. So tell them to do their homework. Let me finish. I'm going to finish here, Rick. I'm going to finish. I'm going to finish, Rick. And the answer that I hear is as follows. that the Fed has a, that what they're going to do is not price what they think the Fed should do. They're going to price what they think the Fed will do because that is the Fed's job,

the price that overnight rate. And unless that changes, that's what they're going to do. And so they're going to do it, Rick, with either more or less information. Less information means more uncertainty, means higher bond deals. And if you want to refute that, have a day at it. There's the soap opera. I'm pretty sure Volker gave no heads up. It's just facts from people who run money.

Volker chopped on a cigar and told people to watch the markets on their own. Exactly. Yeah, that was better. That was better. More uncertainty. Sure was. He brought inflation down. Are you kidding me? Let's go back. He was the only chairman to truly bring inflation down.

What? Rick, did you have you looked at the record of the Federal Reserve on inflation? They really sat through real inflation to begin with. If you make stuff up, Rick, your point is wonderful. If you make stuff up, why don't you look at the Fed's record on inflation up until the pandemic, okay? Look at the Fed's record on anything. They're never right. They're never right, Stephen.

That's not the point. Look at inflation being below 2% for almost the entire time. I don't think we've had a Fed chair person in the last 20 years. We haven't had a fed chair. It's really articulate a plan. Look at the inflation record. Look at the growth record. Look at the unemployment record.

What are you guys even talking about? Do you even look at the data or you just make stuff up? And look at it before May. Then what did it look different before May? If we all talk over each other, nobody wins. Nobody's heard. The audience is a win. That's true.

You do. We're all, this is, this is called. You just make stuff up. I love a segment where I'm actually the call. There's a lot of smart people here. There is a lot of smart people with a lot of valid and differentiating opinions. Jeff Kilberg, I will ask you, does the market? want to hear, do we deserve to know what Chair Warsh's preferred measure inflation is?

And we're not going to go. Yeah. I don't think we deserve because we already know what the daddy's looking at. But what I think the curveball here, the wild card is going to go into tomorrow, how many bonds is Besson going to buy on September 9th? That's what I want to know as a bond trader. That's fair, fair point. I'm with you, Jeff.

I'd like to know that, too. We all would. Yeah. All the we have to do is wait and see. Well, we do wait and see. And you really think that any amount of bonds, any amount of bonds, you really think Besson is the type of guy that's going to buy bonds and think he's going to alter the course of interest rates?

You really believe that? No, but he's going to influence it. Do you really believe that? No, Rikster. I think he's pretty smart. He's seen that the Fed does things, and if the market doesn't agree, it pushes back. But when he first articulated that message, we didn't see yields really moved back. They actually went back about 470.

So he came back to the microphone again and articulated. they're going to buy potentially a trillion dollars. So I think he does want to flex his muscles. But you're right, Rick. He can't dictate until Bancho is where it's going, but he can influence. This was a good conversation. You know what, Steve, what they're trying to figure out right now is what segments of the back half of the show now have to go away because we went 12 minutes long. But it was a good debate.

And all now I can think about is I think it's LL Cool J. I'm the type of guy that shows up on the scene and gets the seven digits. Yeah, you know the routine. I love Steve and Rick. Steve, Jeff, Rick. Guys, thank you very much. All right. Coming up, call it the shoe dog of the market

and whether or not Nike can ever turn it back around. We've got to talk about Nike. Nike down another percent. Not a big move today, but the stocks at a more than 12-year low. It went from 179 to 38 and change. Randy Connick at Jeffrey's joining us now on set. Randy, I'm just going to jump right in. What does Nike need to do?

What's going on here? Yeah. Look, Nike needs to do what it's doing, which is under the new leadership, the CEO's been there for about two years. The company had, under the old CEO, transitioned the product architecture away from a sports performance kind of attribute business towards lifestyle. That is not working or that didn't work. And now the new CEO has been there for about two years is re-architecting the business. And because it's the most ubiquitous brand in the world, it takes time to fix it to make those changes in the those changes to take effect.

Can it be fixed? It can be fixed. And already it's starting to be, you're starting to see green shoots already. Like what? Give me, the Nike investors and employees need a green shoot. The green shoots are, if you look at the performance business, which is about half the company, their business is up. If you look at the lifestyle business, which is also half the company, the business is down.

So the way this works is from a mixed perspective is we need the performance business to continue to work, which we do think is going to happen into 2027, and the lifestyle business to get less worse and bottom out, which we think also happens in the next couple of quarters, is the company re-architects the inventory allocation towards performance and away from lifestyle. Because it's not just Nike. We're talking about Nike because it's one of the most well-known brands in the history of the world. If you look at a Lulu Lemon, you look at Under Armour, I mean, Dave, they've stunk it up too. It's not just that. So that's why they got to get out of that space. Why is that space hurting so bad? Well, look, I think one of the things that people forget

is that the athletic or the athleisure space was the best performing and highest growing space in consumer discretionary during COVID. We've now come out of that. We had some hangover. Everybody has what they need. Correct. So where Nike is a sustainable long-term brand with a great moat is that in footwear and sneakers, there's only 12 companies that matter. Nike has lost market share in the last five years from 25% market share to 20% market share, but it's still 20% market share in a great big 20% mortgage share of like the world is pretty big. It's pretty good, right? So what's, but again, so then you're optimistic then obviously on the stock?

You should be because you can buy Nike at the lowest market cap in 15 years. It's trading at almost one-time sales, the lowest almost ever. And you can buy it today. And by the way, if you buy it today, you can collect income. They have a 4.2% dividend yield that's near treasuries. That's pretty good. So I think you get paid to wait. The business is getting better on the performance side.

lifestyle is bottoming out, you know, getting less negative. And I think the numbers, the earnings numbers, start to bottom out later this year and into next year. So you have confidence in Elliott Hill as CEO? I do. I do. Why? He's fixed the culture of the company. He is focused on returning product to its, you know, innovating on product once again, speeding that up. And basically rebalancing the channels of distribution in this business from just wholesale, not just a direct to consumer, but wholesale and direct to consumer, have that more evened out. It's a harder question, but also Nike, you know, listen, they've pivoted a lot to social issues. Do they need to just repivit? And people got a strong opinion about that. I'm not

going to debate this or the other thing. But let's be clear, if you take a social stand, it's going to alienate some people for right or wrong, correct? Correct. Just focus on shoes, focus on the stuff. Right. Are they going to do that? Well, I think under the new leader, they are doing that. They're just focusing on the product and let the product shine. And from a marketing perspective, focus on the product in big moments like around the World Cup, around the Super Bowl, et cetera. Bottom line, you're bullish on Nike? Very bullish.

And we're bearish on holding. The parent company on cloud. Yes. O.C. The shoe. Yes. That's a niche brand that'll stay niche. It's got, it's already starting to fade and mature in the United States.

And we don't like the product quality there. We think it's a brand that's very fashion driven. And the last fashion brand we saw that was like this was 23 years ago when Puma was hot. Whereas Puma today, it's not hot. Yeah, I saw, we got to go, Randy. I saw an article the other day. I can't remember where you'll forgive me. It said something like, if you're still wearing sneakers, it means you're old or something like that.

And I thought, God, I threw the sneakers away. Randy, Connick and Jeffries, really appreciate your time, Randy. Thanks for having me. Thank you very much. All right. Pump the brakes on any market correction fears. We know that today, but longer term, Mark Newton says, look at the charts and they'll tell you all you need to know. He's here next.

All right, welcome back on a big, big market day. NASDA composite up more than 1% market index is higher across the board. What else? InVidia's sales and revenue outlook lifting chip stocks higher, lifting AI stocks higher. And your next guest says the technical charts are showing it's only a matter of time until the S&P 500 is back to all time highs. Joining us now, Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at FundStrat, a man with impeccable choices and ties. to zoom in on that Virginia Tech tie right there. I love that. Mark is a fellow hokey. We're not a record highest today, but you say we will be. What's the technical chart set up looking

right now? Look, we had a big breakout from late July. We pulled back about six, seven days. The move from Nvidia in their announcement was certainly a game changer, I think, for the AI trade and for tech, as well as what Scott Besson announced earlier in terms of adding global liquidity, doubling the buyback. That helped crypto, that helped gold, silver. Certainly has been a relief to risk assets in general. So I like, you know, I like technology here, but I also like health care, materials, energy. I don't think that, you know, the geopolitical situation, unfortunately, is not getting better as quickly as we want. So we've seen big breakouts and commodities across the board. Grain's broke out yesterday. It looked very, very good to me. I think crude likely is

going to go eventually to near $100, unfortunately. I don't think that the end game. It is getting a little better, I mean, at least on the headline side, but you see the charts, because you're a technician. Right. The U.S. announced today that we're not going back to the June MOU, so crude spiked higher on that news near the highs of the day. If we get above like $89, we should trend higher. Cycles say we have one final push up, and I think that potentially could last three to six months. So this will not end, I think, as quickly as what we want, which means there's going to be elevated prices, you know, in general. You know, commodities and most things, energy related are going to continue to do well, like materials and energy. But, you know, Yeah, technology has been under pressure for now three months. It's been a very choppy trade. And I think InVVDIA's announcement about their 2028 revenue was certainly a game changer. It was almost double with the street as expected. There are 11 S&P 500 sectors.

And until a couple of moments ago, there was only one that was higher. It's how we led the show. Technology. Energy is now slightly higher as well. Energy's up 38 percent as a sector year to date. Sounds like you think it's going to go even higher. I think, you know, unfortunately, it's like. likely will between now and your end. It won't be a straight shot. But I like being normally,

look, September, October, November, not great months usually for crude, but it's a different cycle. And you have to stay long energy, specifically areas within the refining with crack spreads where they are. So, you know, that's going to be an area of real focus for many that like to follow trends. Can this market, and again, I know it's one day. So, you know, I don't want to make too much over one or a couple of days, that most of the market is down, but technology is big, it's so mighty, it's so powerful, it's pulling everything up. As a technician, do you care why the market goes up if it's just one sector or maybe two out of 11? Yeah, honestly, I don't see it as being one sector. I know with regards to the earning strength that has been the case,

but when you look at what's happened with financials in recent months in health care, which has come back from the dead after almost three years of underperformance, you know, these are really important groups for the market. I mean, combined, they're about 25%. So those are, the fact that technology had a big correction and these groups helped to sort of buoy the market. The market didn't decline. It just went sideways from May until July. And, you know, if we had all of technology going down at once, that would have been a bigger deal. But we saw it, you know, in piece, you know, step by step. Software initially. Then we saw hypers, mag-7. It went to semis and then finally to the memory space. And so fortunately, you know, some of these stocks were down 20, 30, 40 percent,

but yet the market largely went sideways. Why is that? Well, thanks to financials, thanks to health care thanks to different parts of the market that were rallying to support things. So the first thing is that normally, look, you expect a correction in the fall. The breadth is much better than it is normally most years. The second is its sentiment is still largely off sides. People have concerns about inflation, about the end game for the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. And honestly, Jeff Kilberg noted, and by the way, financials and health care up 12 and 15% so far this year. Quickly, Jeff Kilberg noted that the VIX, the fear gauge or the options gauge, it just keeps going down.

Well, that's to be expected. But in a good way, I think is that a bullish add to the market? As a former option trader at the CBOE, I can say that you need something unexpected normally for the VIX to have a big dramatic spike that will start to trend. And we haven't seen that. Things have been pretty orderly. Despite all the bad news, so to speak, there's a lot of good news that investors should be paying attention to with regards to earning strength. Profit growth is the best in about 30 years. The economy is clicking. So, yes, there are obviously things we all want to worry about.

when you have defensive sectors that are deteriorating, that's not normally a time you want to be really concerned. But be that as it may, I think you're probably still in for a choppy period between, you know, mid-September into November. A lot of that has to do with long-term interest rates. Ken Besson help the long end of the curve, not dramatically start to increase. We've seen that all across the world. The U.S. has been the best house in a bad neighborhood.

Now, all of a sudden, the 30-year broke out, the 10-year, to Rick's point earlier, hasn't really moved to the same extent. But my thinking is, we need to see their firepower. That likely comes on September the night. If Worse says nothing, if he doesn't address the economy, then, you know, we have that risk premium, term premium that's going to be added. Long rates creep up. That could be an eventual risk to the stock market, along with oil going to 100.

Outside of that, I don't see a lot of worry technically right now with what's going on, and I like the market between now and next spring. New highs. Choppy period. New highs ahead. So says Mark Newton. And we're all circling September night. That is that next big treasury.

Operation Mark Newton, Funstratt, Global Head of Technical Strategy, Mark, thank you very much. Thanks, Brian. Appreciate that. All right, Scott over to Brandon Gomez with a CNBC News update. Hey there, Brian. The U.S. military reportedly has a, quote, beyond critical shortage of missile interceptors in Europe. The Associated Press reports that it is largely driven by the war with Iran and, quote, sources in the Defense Department and NATO as claiming the most concerning shortfall is with Patriot missile interceptors,

which can shoot down Russia's high-speed ballistic missiles. A surge in immigration arrests this summer rounded up thousands of people not previously targeted in the administration's crackdown. According to a new analysis by the New York Times, a majority of immigrants arrested in July were accused of violating civil immigration laws but had not been charged or convicted of a crime. The Times says the shares of arrests for people with convictions for a violent crime fell to just 4%. And President Trump today said he's renaming Lake Ontario, Lake America, amid the trade war with cancer. Canada. He signed an executive order within the last hour directing the Interior Secretary to rename it. Lake Ontario takes its name from an indigenous word meaning Great Lake and has had that name since the 1600s, Brian. Big change there. Huh. Interesting. Yeah. I want to move on. Brandon Gomez. Thank you.

Thanks. Thank you very much. All right. Is it time for us all to talk and stop this SaaS Pocalypse-I-talk? I mean, software-as-a-service. Will AI? kill software. Is that over? Maybe. Talk about it next. Sales force soaring today after the company's latest earnings report and news of its expanding partnership with Anthropic. CEO Mark Benioff says it is time to put fear as what they call a sasspocalypse to rest. Is he right? Joining us, Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategies of Freedom Capital Markets, CNBC contributor, and new author of an article, Just Out Your Talk about. about the gap. And we just had Mark Newton on, he was a technician, about sort of, I guess,

filling the gap. And a lot of these software stocks got crushed. Now, they filled those gaps. What is that move, Jay, telling you about the sector, about these stocks? Yeah, you've had a great show of technicians, so I'm happy to join the party. But that gap gives us so much information. Coming into this week, Salesforce, if you look at on a daily basis and a weekly basis, it was at a major inflection point, major resistance point. On the daily, this 210 area got to it three times, couldn't get above. It's been in a downtrends since December of 2024. And what did it do?

It crushed it on the earnings front. It gapped higher. And that gap is any trader's dream, because now we have a floor from which we want to build with. If you were lucky enough to buy it on the opening or, God forbid, own it before this gap, we got the price confirmation we've been waiting for. I'd rather see price confirmation than gamble when we have an inflection point. in a stock. And now we use that gap as knowledge. It broke above the weekly 200-week moving average and a major resistance level at 240. I thought maybe it would slow down there. But now if it pulls back, we have an area to buy. And where have we seen this before? Guess where? In the

sales, in the software space, Microsoft, Snowflake, Palantir. They were all in severe downtrends during the test apocalypse, as it's been called. And what did they do? They finally had earnings where they reacted positively. The earnings have been good, but the reaction now is favorable. And I think that interview that Jim Kramer had last night was a seminal moment that we can put an end to Sasspocalypse. We'll have winners and losers,

but AI is not wiping out this trade. Well, I hope we can put the term Saspocalypse, which is on our screen around a bed, because I don't like it. About eight people know what it even means and nobody cares and it's hard to say and whatever. When you get on the subway in London, the tube, they say, mind the gap.

because they don't want you to, like, fall in, get your footstock. What does a gap signal in stock charts? Yeah, gaps are opportunities. It's gap and go. And now, from a risk-reward point of view, you want to use that gap as your stop. It's still not too late to buy it. And on a long-term basis, you back this out two decades. It held a major uptrend.

I think Salesforce is back like some of these other software names, and it's a good time, not too late to get in if you have the patience. You may have missed today's move, but the long-term move, I think these stocks are back. And I agree with you with Jim's interview, the fact that Mark was there with Anthropic, that sort of kumbaya. We're friends. We're friends. I thought it mattered a lot. Jay Woods.

Appreciate it, buddy. Thank you very much. You got it. All right. More power lunch right after this. All right. Some big news in the semiconductor space today, S.K. Heinex, breaking new ground on a facility in Indiana, West Lafayette, to be exact. The multi-billion-billion-dollar price tag is bringing in Christina Parsonableness to tell us what it all means.

Christina. A $4 billion price tag. on the largest high bandwidth memory production facility in the United States. But it's a groundbreaking ceremony that construction has actually been underway for several months. They're going to have their first clean room in October. They're going to be hiring 1,000 direct jobs, 6,000 construction and related business surrounding jobs. And the important thing to note, though, is that this is in Indiana, but it's only on the packaging side of the equation, which means that the chips are still being made in China.

They're still being made in South Korea. They come over here to the United States. They get layered on top of each other, connected, and then packaged. So you did have Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary, back in July, suggests that Samsung as well as S.K. Hynix, to really build these high bandwidth memory chips here in the United States. This is a step in the right direction. They're getting Chipsack funding as well.

But it's not the actual chips being built here. It's just the packaging of it together. But it's a big deal, right? I mean, just another example, the massive capital spending investment. that we are seeing across America. Oh, of course, that is a big deal because it's going to add, what, 7,000 jobs, and you're actually building on ground here. But if you want to be at the forefront of the AI race,

you have to actually build the product here in the United States. Production, I mean, manufacturing for the actual packaging is wonderful, and it's extremely complicated and also raises competition for Intel. But nonetheless, you want to make that next step of building the chips on U.S. soil. Eskaheinix, too, much like TSM when they built, are going to be bringing over some of their own employees from South Korea to work with the Americans first. And I know with a TSM, and you know this too, Brian. You know, unions weren't a huge fan of that, but it's something you got to do. Yeah, it is something you got to do.

There are certain things, but one thing I don't think is slowing down. Christina, is the capital spending. It's just ground laying. A big win, by the way, for West Lafayette. I know you're a big Purdue boiler maker. fan. You're actually wearing Purdue colors right now. I don't know if you even finalize that. Yeah, yeah. Of course I did. Yeah. My friend's son just went back to school there. It's a great school.

Christina Partsenevulus. Thank you very much. Thank you. More power lunch right after this short book. I mean, I don't need to tell you what that was. It was Dolly Parton's 9 to 5 is just one of the many, many, many, many timeless hits now surging back up the streaming charts. In fact, if you didn't pay attention, listen to this. Now holds four of the top five most streamed songs on Apple Music. I check last night people still do buy individual songs. A lot of people buy them, not just old people like me.

She had the top six and two of the top five on Spotify. Obviously, the country music icon passed away earlier this week, but her music and her legacy is going to live on forever. She is red hot on Apple Music, on Spotify, and yes, on the iTunes. iTunes Music Store. Well deserved. All right. Just a quick promo. My weekly newsletter, Power Insider, just came out. This week, I dig into a big question, how much oil is actually making it through the Strait of Formuz. I wrote about this. I wrote about a couple of energy stocks, including one that one Nancy Pelosi recently bought a lot of. You can scan the QR code on your screen to read it now.

Sign up today. I will see you on fast. money tonight. Thanks for watching. Posing Bell starts now.