Power Lunch - State of the PGA Tour, Crude Rebounds & Bitcoin Lowest Since November 03/11/25

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

CNBC’s Tyler Mathisen and Kelly Evans take you through the heart of the business day bringing you the latest developments and instant analysis on the stocks and stories driving the day’s agenda. “Power Lunch” delves into the economy, markets, politics, real estate, media, technology and more. The show sits at the intersection of power and money. “Power Lunch” gives viewers a full plate of CNBC’s award-winning business news coverage, plus a healthy dose of personality from the show’s anchors and the network’s top-notch roster of reporters and digital journalists. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan at the Zero Week Global Conference in Houston, Texas. And Kelly, I think we have an hour of power lunch coming up. We do. And Brian, we have another sell-off on our hands. So here we go again. I'm Kelly Evans at CMEC headquarters. Dow's down 633 right now. But look at your screens. It is the worst performer. So a bit of a distorted sense there of what's going on. Down one and a half percent. The selling pressure picked up a couple of hours ago when the president threatened stiffer tariffs on Canada. The Dow down more than 700 at the lows. The S&P is down a percent right now. The NASDAQ is outperforming. It's down about half a percent, but it's still down 5 percent this week, and it's only Tuesday. And all the major averages are now lower since the election. From the recent highs, the NASDAQ is off more than 10 percent now. The S&P just under that level. And that high, by the way, was less than a month ago. And concerns about the consumer are piling up after a warning from Delta Airlines, having a big impact across the travel space. Delta shares down. 8% on pace for their worst day only since about a year ago. Brian? Yeah, it is quite the sell-off that we are in the middle of, Kelly. And let's talk to a man right now to kick off the

show that knows something or other not only about energy, but about tariffs and also about public companies. That is Secretary of the Interior, Doug Bergam. He is the former governor of North Dakota and also the former founder and CEO of a publicly traded company who sat on the board of other ones. So you are not only a CEO, a former governor, now Secretary. of the Interior. Doug Bergam, very, very pleased to have you on Power Lunch. Thank you very much. Yeah, Brian, great to be with you and great to be here at this exciting conference with you.

Well, let's start with the topic du jour. Tariffs. I don't think they're causing all the market sell-off, but there's certainly a big part of it. You're a former publicly traded company CEO. How do you view the market reaction to tariffs, something that are within the administration's control? Well, at least from my standpoint, I wouldn't. attribute the market reaction singly to tariffs because when I've been in meetings here for the last 48 hours at Sarah Week and you take a look at

the CAP-X budgets of everybody that's here there's a there's for sure a half a trillion maybe close to a trillion dollars between the sovereign wealth funds the private equity the big all the big tech companies are here this an energy conference they weren't even coming here three years ago now they're coming here that with the big five with the largest cap budgets collectively bigger than autos, bigger than manufacturing, bigger than oil and gas. Are those at risk though, Mr. Secretary? I don't think they're at risk at all because there's a, there's real demand that's occurring

separate from any uncertainty there might be in the markets around AI. And that we've got, we're in an AI arms race with China that we must win. That requires electricity. That requires data centers. That requires more power generation. That AI has got an opportunity to affect every job, every company, every industry, lift up humanity in ways that we could, just like software has lifted up, you know, humanity for the last 30 or 40 years. So that, the excitement that is here at this conference

and the, and people are bullish on America, they see that there's a renaissance that's occurring in our country. We're bringing back manufacturing. We're going to be back in the mining business. We're going to be back in the manufacturing business. I mean, the enthusiasm here is palpable. and have you met you're a former tech great plane software sold it to Microsoft so you're a tech guy sort of in your core venture capital fund amazon is here Microsoft is here google is here others are here i'm sure you've talked to some or all of them any indication to you mr secretary that their capital spending budgets are going to go down or be cut no because i'll tell you why if you've got a three trillion dollar market cap that's dependent on you delivering against the

that you're going to be able to deliver AI, and you can't deliver AI without electricity. These are companies that in the old days didn't have a CAPEX budget. They hired salespeople and software developers. They expensed everything on the operating side of the business. But now the capital required for power generation, for data centers at a scale that we've never seen before,

that's not stopping. And it's not stopping in China either. China's got 30 nuclear plants under construction. They've added 100 gigawatts of coal. They're spending over $100 billion on hydro. That's what's that's the real signal and that's the war that we're in. The cyber war and the AI arms race against China. That's going to continue to drive demand.

Heavily polluting as well, these coal plants. The United States, I know a lot of people out there, they're going to hate mining no matter what we say about it. I think the US, at least from the data, does things a little bit better or better than in the other country. So much better. And a coal plant in China is like a, in China is like a 1970s before we even had an EPA.

In the US, if there's a coal plant still operating in the United States, they've taken care of everything that you can imagine. These are clean coal plants if they're still running. They've been the most regulated segment of our energy industry. I applaud them if they're still open, and we need them to stay open, provide that much-leased baseload.

So what I get, as the Secretary of the Interior, here's what I hear from all the companies that we talk to. They say, Brian, I'd like to build up of this or that, whatever they're building. but I can't get a permit to do it. I can't get a permit to move whatever that electricity or gas or mine, whatever it is. I can't get a permit to move it. And here's the dirty secret.

The United States is a geographical wonder. Are we not? We have so many raw materials on our fingertips that are sitting there, but we can't get to them. How do we change the permitting so we can actually do this stuff? So it doesn't have to be done in China with no EPA controls or by 10-year-olds in the jungle of Congo. Well, exactly, and this is one of the reasons why on day one, President Trump declared a national energy emergency, and then he also followed that with an executive order to create the National Energy Dominance Council, which I've got the honor of chairing, Chris Wright,

our great new Secretary of Energy as the vice chair. But on that, on that council, we've got over half the cabinet, Lee Zeldon from the EPA is on that, it's on that cabinet, Howard Lutnik, Scott Besson, Marco Rubio. I mean, we've got over half the cabinet. We've got a, we've We've got the whole... We need Congress, though. Don't you need Congress for a lot of this permitting reform? Much of the permitting reform, the speed, without changing anything, the speed is just business process of prudent.

I mean, we are so underinvested. We've got too many people and not enough speed in our processes because we have the, the federal government hasn't added IT the way the private sector has in terms of how you speed up the actual processing. In North Dakota, we were able to do this and be able to bring permitting that at the federal level took six years. we were doing in six months. So I know it can be done in government. I've done it when I was a governor. We can do it here. And when you reduce the time, if it takes 10 years to get an operation going,

and a company's got to take all that risk, they've got to put $10 billion a capital up, tell their shareholders, don't worry, we might get a permit at the end of this process. That raises the cost of everything. So we reduce the capital cost, reduce the uncertainty, and we get projects done. We bring mining back to the U.S. We bring manufacturing back. What's amazing about North Dakota? Besides the wonderful people and just the bison roaming around are the number of wind turbines. Iowa, I think per capita is the greatest renewable wind generator in the United States. Right around here in Texas, I drive 30 miles outside of Houston, I'm going to see wind turbines.

Are you energy agnostic? Can you say to our audience, our global audience right now, we need all of everything? I will say that we need affordable and reliable electricity because that's how we win. That's how we win the economic battles that we're in. But the key word there is affordable and reliable. Some of the most expensive energy we have is the renewables. They're so heavily subsidized. It's not what it costs for that last marginal cost a kilowatt.

It's what the taxpayers are paying to subsidize it. And then guess what? When President Trump was elected, or not elected, inaugurated, January 20th of this year, that cold day in Washington, D.C. in the PJM market, which is Virginia to New York, one of the most popular... 60 million Americans. Yes. 5 a.m. that morning was the peak load on that thing.

2% was coming from wind, 0% from solar because it was dark out. 70% from fossil fuels, 22% from nuclear. And we have people in our country that are anti-nuclear and anti-fossil fuels. There is no energy transition. It's only energy addition. We need more of it. And that wind that was providing the 2% can't exist without the cost of all the... of the base load that runs on the days that it's not there.

It's like, would you take an Uber if you didn't know if the Uber would get you there? If you didn't know if it would stop halfway there, if you didn't know that it was, no, you would. So would you pay for that ride? You would pay nothing to that list. I published on my Twitter account that information from PGM, which also last year said we're not sure in seven years if we're going to have enough capacity to actually generate electricity.

But let's just go. Let's just say I want to build a giant solar farm in Phoenix or outside of Phoenix, Arizona. And I want to build power lines for the solar farm to a new city that maybe I want to build a suburb outside of Scottsdale. The permitting, pain, and the you know what. How do we, if we get permitting reform, sounds like you think we could, how do we make that permitting reform so ironclad that if we get another massive shift in politics, let's say in four more years, we go a whole different direction? How do we ensure the permitting reform won't be changed again in four years? Because you also can't do that as a public company. Well, I think that durability that you talk about is something that capital loves stability and durability of policies,

and we ought to be striving to that. Interestingly, you would think that both parties would understand that having a durable policy around energy would be good for every industry and good for every consumer and bad for our adversaries. But the policies that we've had that put us in this position where we were driving premature, shutting down base load in this country in favor of the kind of projects that you've mentioned, wind and solar, those are intermittent. The sun doesn't shine 24 hours a day. The storage solutions aren't economically viable yet, even if it's just load shifting for four or five hours. Those also have to be heavily subsidized. If we want to have chip manufacturers moving from Taiwan

back to Arizona, they're coming because we've got low-cost electricity. Manufacturers are leaving Germany because their electricity costs three times as much. Germany spent $500 billion, a half a trillion dollars chasing this dream of we're going to have renewables. In which is the German word, I massacred it, but you get the point. Solar and wind, they're going to have it. It's intermittent and it's expensive. And what they ended up with after spending $500 billion, a half a trillion dollars, is they've ended up with 20% electricity, less electricity generation because they shut down base load and the price of electricity is three times as high. One of the promises of this, you know, renewable transition was it was going to be

cheap. It's not cheap and it's not reliable. And those two things are essential. So we are for every form of energy as long as it's affordable and it's reliable. So I know you've talked about America's balance sheet. I think you're going to talk tomorrow. I don't want to give too much way. I don't know it, but I know the top line of the speech. How do we ensure that we use the abundant, resources of the United States in a way that also is respectful of the environment, respectful of the climate, respectful of climate change. How do we, where is, as Secretary of the Interior, where is your balance on those things? So I will say this, I love North Dakota.

But when I fly into Williston at night and there's all those flares of gas coming up, literally it's never dark because of all the fire that's coming up from all the flares, because they have no place to put the gas. That seems like a waste and bad for the environment. How do we balance all of this out? Easy question to wrap it up. Well, I would say it must have been a few years ago. It was, yes.

Because the gas capture that we've accomplished there now is among the best in the country. But some of that was federal permits. You couldn't get on federal land a permit to do a gas gathering line. And then they were upset that there was flaring going on, but they wouldn't give the permit to actually do the linear infrastructure to be able to take care of that problem. But those are all completely solvable and taken care of. and I would say in North Dakota, where we've got among the cleanest air, the cleanest water, the best soil health, and some of the longest living citizens in the country, we're able to do that

and only use a fraction, teeny fraction, one or two percent of the surface land that would go towards energy production with advances with things like horizontal drilling, where now you can go down two miles and go two, three, and four miles laterally. You never have to touch the surface to be able to develop those resources. federal land, then that private sector risk-taker entrepreneur sends a check to the federal government. If you take a look at interior, just interior alone, not a whole of government, just interior. If it was a standalone company, it would have the largest balance sheet in the world. It would dwarf, you know, Saudi-Ramco. But that's for the public, though. We want to enjoy the lands and the federal

parks. Yes, and if we can enjoy, you know, 90 or 95% of it, because you don't have to touch it, and then on the other 5%, I mean, what public lands that are used for mining is, like 0.002. I mean, it's like the amount of surface area to extract safely and smartly, the resources that God-given amazing natural resources that we have. We have, we, if interior, with 500 million acres of surface, 700 million acres of subsurface, 2 billion of offshore, believe me, we could have, be an energy resource powerhouse. We can cut a tree. We can graze an animal and we can do energy development and still have, are all of our on our national parks untouched the biggest healthy of mine in the world we can have

wilderness areas untouched we can we can do both this is a place of abundance and remember that you know places like alaska which people Alaska is the size of california plus Texas plus Montana plus new mexico and the prior Biden administration fought to stop a project that was a hundred and eighty acres in a strategic petroleum reserve meant to help lower the cost of energy for americans a hundred and eighty acres out of something that was the, that reserve is the size. I think many of the native peoples actually wanted the project for a job. When development happened in the North Slope of Alaska,

the lifespan of the native Alaskans went up by 14 years because economically things were better. They had more access, they had better food, all the things that happened. When we, when a humanity prospers, we get healthier and have longer lives. Very quickly, wrap it up with this. Kelly, last question. Forget about Secretary of the Interior, former CEO. We started dead with it.

I want to end with it. Do you think the market is over? reacting to the tariff headlines? Well, I think that... Think like a market, you were a markets guy for 30, you still are, but for 40 years. I'm not a, I'm not a, I'm not a, a prognosticator on where the markets are going. People can check futures prices if they want to see what the market collectively thinks. But what I'm walking around here, getting real demand signals from people that actually are the, the executives, the CEOs,

that are, that want to invest, they want to invest in the U.S. more than any other place in the world. and they want to invest in a place where they know that we're committed to having low-cost, affordable energy because that drives every other industry. They know that this is going to be a place where we're going to have AI, and AI is going to help them to have access to that. So, you know, the market is bullish on America, and whatever short-term turbulence we're going through right now, I mean, I think the smart money is going to be betting on America coming out of this long-term.

Because President Trump has a vision. for where we're going to get to, and that's free and fair trade. And it's a pro-business, a pro-business in culture here in our country, where we're bringing back the real jobs to America to start building things again. Well, I think it's been called the detox also. And maybe your comments about no-capex cuts coming will help turn the market around. Secretary of Interior, Doug Bergam, former governor of North Dakota, businessman, venture capitalists. Thank you very much.

for joining us. Kelly will continue this conversation in a bit with Scott Sheffield, founder and former CEO Pioneer Natural Resources, the always outspoken Scott Sheffield, who does almost no interviews, but he will sit down with us right here on CNBC. That's coming up. And the market is off session lows, Brian. So coincidence or not, we'll take that as duly noted. Brian, thanks, and we'll see you in a couple of minutes. The Dow's down 450 right now, well off the session lows of more than 700 down. As the president's trade war escalates and as economic uncertainty mounts,

some corporations are now beginning to throw up red flags. Delta Airlines, for instance, cutting its profit forecast, issuing a warning on the economy and the consumer. One of the first major companies to do so, it has the shares down another 8% today, also seeing some weakness in retail where coals, which, granted, has been struggling. Issuing a weak sales look at the outlook, the shares are plunging more than 20%. But Dix, one of the stronger players, also expects lower profits due to tariffs and sliding consumer confidence. And then on the small business front, one area that was euphoric, after the president's election.

The NFIB reporting a slide in optimism last month with a bigger slide, especially in the outlook for a lot of small businesses now. That all is kind of added up to the weakness that we're seeing in the markets throughout the session. I did mention, though, we're off the session lows and we're beginning to see some headlines, saying that Ukraine could be amenable to a 30-day ceasefire.

So that's coming after this nine-hour meeting that U.S. and Ukrainian officials have held, and it could be one reason we're off the lows. In fact, the NASDAQ is now positive. Let's bring in Malcolm Etheridge. He's managing partner at Capital Area Planning Group and our own Bob Pisani. He's CNBC Senior Markets correspondent. Bob, let me just go first to you. If you could kind of retrace the action here. Yeah, well, we are rallying here. I see some of the big names, NVIDIAs, Amazon, Goldman Sachs moving up. This is a kind of a broad move off of the lows. I think the problem is, and Steve Leeson said this earlier, there's no recession in any of the hard numbers, but it's starting to show up in the soft numbers.

and that kind of seems right to me. This seems like a garden variety correction, 10%. The concerns are high multiples, and secondly, a modest slowdown in the economy, but that's not a recession. And what's making people crazy is the tariffs. These daily headlines are very difficult to digest. I've been joking all week

that it's like having a bowling alley installed in your brain. Every day you come in and something different is going on, and it's starting to affect the earnings situation. These comments from Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delioux, are very important. It's affected all the travel stocks today, but more importantly, analysts are going to start taking down the numbers overall for the first quarter and possibly even into the second half of the year. So remember something. The numbers in the first quarter have held up very well until a few weeks ago. They're starting to come down. This is the first

CEO who's actually started market volatility as a reason. The CEOs wait and wait, the analysts, wait for these CEOs to give comments. He's now sending a signal to other. CEOs, they can give comments. And what I think the market's concerned about here is we can now see a cascading series of results where the first quarter and second quarter numbers start coming down very, very fast. The market's tried to anticipate that. But whenever you get that, Kelly, that's that second leg down, which when the analysts start cutting the numbers. And there you got Delta, the first one actually in the gate on that, Kelly. Bob, thanks. And Malcolm, how are you kind of thinking about your investments right now? Yeah, I think Bob's making a great point when you look at the

the numbers that we do have already, the known knowns, if you will. But I think what might be scaring the investors a lot more than we're probably giving them credit for to this point is forward-looking, it doesn't look great. If we just consider the fact that we came into this year, especially in the cycle wherein expecting there would be a Trump put, we were basing that on the fact that in his first term, the president pegged the entire success of his administration with whatever the S&P 500 was doing. And then we look and he kind of went out of his way over the weekend to make it clear that he's not so concerned about what the S&P does, at least near term. And I think that is also what could spook markets from going just in correction territory, as Bob was saying, into that bare market and something a lot more prolonged than what we're hoping this currently is. Malcolm, as things stand, are you inclined to be more of a buyer or a seller right now? Well, I think you have to take caution when you answer that question to determine whether you really have the stomach.

to ride out that difference between correction territory, right? We're stepping in and buying a 10% dip to bear market territory where we're talking 20% plus because if I'm putting $100,000 to work today and within two weeks, I'm telling you it could turn into $85,000, let's say, if there's another 15% drawdown, if you don't really have it in you to sit it out and wait and see the turnaround come, I don't think that this is the place where you buy this dip. It's probably smarter to just T-Bill and chill because we do it, fact that there is more volatility coming as the president continues to ratchet up trade policy and the rhetoric around tariffs.

And Bob, where did you say that kind of leaves us now for the rest of the week? And in terms of the commentary from the president. And, hey, again, a reminder that if we do get some kind of, you know, better solution on Ukraine, the market was obviously quite worried about that, too. If the market is concerned about a recession, then we have a problem because it is very difficult to call floor when you're entering recession. I still don't think it's there. It just doesn't seem that way.

It still seems like a garden variety correction. What the market wants is for tariffs to go away. It's really that simple. And it could change with a tweet. That's what makes this so difficult. Normally, if we're talking about a real actual downturn, we're going to a recession, we look more at the fundamentals and issues around it.

Here we have a very obvious shiny object that is causing most of the consternation. And that's the difference between a garden variety correction and a potential recession right now. And the market is telegraphic. that. All right, gentlemen, thanks. Bob Bassani, Malcolm Etheridge. We appreciate your time and your thoughts today. Dow's down 300, I'm going to say only 354 points right now. The White House also making some comments about the markets. Megan Kissela has the news for us. Megan? Hey, Kelly, we just had a chance to

hear on the record from the White House from Press Secretary Caroline Levitt amid this escalating tariff war and a very tumultuous week for the markets right off the top of this press briefing. Leavitt was asked if she could comment on the markets and whether she could assure Americans that are session was not on the horizon. Here's what she said. When it comes to the stock market, the numbers that we see today, the numbers we saw yesterday, the numbers we will see tomorrow are a snapshot of a moment of time. We are in a period of economic transition. We are in a period of transition from the mess that was created under Joe Biden in the previous administration. Now there are a lot of questions as well, Kelly, about these Canadian tariffs and just what to expect. And Leavitt conveyed

that the president and the White House is very dug in on this. She called it an egregious and insulting move from Canada to threaten to cut off electricity to some U.S. states. She said these tariffs as of now are going into effect tomorrow at that higher 50 percent level. She also confirmed that Trump has yet to speak as of a few minutes ago with his Canadian counterpart, the new prime minister, Mark Carney. She also was asked very specifically whether Canada could still be considered a close ally. And Kelly, what she said is that Canada is a neighbor and a partner that they've always been an ally, but perhaps they are becoming a competitor now. So a clear indication there of the frictions that remain in this relationship as both sides,

both countries gear up for more tariffs tomorrow. Kelly? Absolutely, Megan. Thanks. Megan Kassella at the White House. Dowsdown 346. Let's get a check on what this is all meaning for the bond market amid tariff threats, but recession talk as well. Rick Santelli's out in Chicago. We had, you know, and Rick, let's just paint the larger picture here. If there's one justification that I keep hearing for everything that's been going on on the policy front lately, people are saying, whether it's Doge or all the tariff uncertainty, that they're trying to get yields down.

So maybe that's the goal. Maybe it's not. I know it would save on interest. Maybe they don't have to make as deep cuts elsewhere. Yields were certainly headed down this morning before the latest tariff talk. Yeah, I don't know if any of these yields moving down has any kind of indirect tethers to the administration as something they desire. motivation here seems pretty clear. Government spending and government hiring floated the economy.

Now we're removing government spending and we're lowering government hiring and we're firing government hires and it's the opposite effect. It's pretty much should have been expected. The only issue now is how the tariffs turn out what the timeline here is and how many eggs we're going to break to make an omelet. And today, well, we've had jolts today. And what I find interesting about job opening labor turnover, which we started to track in December of 2000. There's a chart that goes back to day one. First of all, well, we're hovering at levels that we spent a lot of time with in the early 2021 era. But prior, prior to COVID, the high in job openings was a little over 7.5 million in the fall of 2019. So we continue to hover at levels that pre-COVID were considered pretty darn

good. Now, if we look at two weeks of 10-year note yields, I know we've had a lot of forays under 415, and many think, wow, we might pierce 4%. I still think that's not a good probability, and this chart shows us we're pretty comfortable consolidating right around 4 and a quarter. And finally, when was the last CPI report? I'll tell you when it was. It was the 12th of February. This chart starts on the 11th. That's what happened since the last release, which was, of course, February CPI coming out tomorrow. This was January CPI. But the point is the headline was up half of 1%

and year over year core was up 3.3. And yet that's what the market did. So you need to be cognizant viewers of how little movement we had to the upside meals when we had our last hot CPI report. You want to really pay attention the next couple of days for CPI and PPI. Kelly back to you.

That's right. Absolutely. Rick, thanks. We appreciate it. Rick Santelli. Coming up, the Dow's well-off session lows, but with all of this volatility, our next guest suggests doing some yield hunting in the value plays. Market Navigator tackles that next. Welcome back to Power Lunch with stocks well-off session lows and the NASDAQ up a quarter percent, but we all know it could all depend on what headline hits next. And amid that volatility, many investors are wondering where to turn. Even Jim Kramer has turned us back on the MAG-7 saying the name no longer fits. Let's get more on the shift from growth to value and back to maybe traditional dividend investing.

Matt Powers is a managing partner at Powers Advisory Group. Matt, pitch us on dividends and, you know, where people can kind of go to feel safest, but also not give up any upside if the market rights itself. Yeah, Kelly, thanks for having me. You know, I think we can say this is a pretty timely topic following last week and definitely yesterday. I mean, today's telling a bit of a different story. But, you know, I've talked about it quite a bit on the network.

There's a clear change of theme with a shift from growth to value dividend investing. other areas that have been largely out of favor for a couple of years. I mean, it was a quiet push and understated, but certainly obvious now. I mean, realistically, this doesn't or shouldn't come as a surprise. We could say there's some quote unquote new opportunities that didn't exist just a few months ago until recently it was challenging to find areas to invest in for a host of reasons, which summer now catalyst for why we're seeing this. You've got tariffs in this back and forth news out of Washington and Trump's ever-changing stance on policies. We just see that objectively investors are, they're just tired. They're exhausted. So it's welcoming in that value, shifting us away from the high growth areas

of the market. You know, there's a quick push to normalization in the equities markets, and diversification hasn't necessarily been popular the last 12 years. And we see this is changing back to a traditional investing mindset. I'm diversified. I've got Nvidia and Apple and, you know, Tesla. I don't know what else you. Matt, let me take the example where you, for clients, you often use Schwab funds like the U.S. large cap dividend fund. And the year-to-date returns there, it's up for. 5% while the large cap growth fund there is down 6%. So that's an 11 point outperformance. And you're confident that if people, you know, jump in now, that that trend will prevail for the rest of the year? Yes, so those are both ETFs that are largely held. We own them for our clients.

And, you know, what's interesting here, if you take a deeper look and you just talked about the returns, but the tech sector's weightings in SCHG, the large cap growth, is the equivalent of the combined weight of healthcare, financials, and staples on the dividend side. So they each make up about half of their respective portfolios at 48%. I mean, it shows that concentration risk on the growth side, especially as market rotation, I mean, take center stage this year. So if you dig just a little bit deeper and you look at the top holdings, so on the growth, ETF, you've got basically, you've got the MAG 7. And on the dividend side, it's those boring flagship blue chip, you know, it's the Ave V Coke of Pepsi, Pfizer. A year ago, the growth side,

holdings were investors' favorites, but there is a clear leadership shift here, and you can see that by the returns. So bottom line, you have to pay attention to broadening diversification in these portfolios and just don't ignore value. Right. So in the high growth, you know, high growth, large cap growth fund, there 48% weighted in technology. In the high dividend fund, it's 18% financials. That's the biggest holding.

You're not concerned there about a slowdown? No, I mean, that goes back to that diversification within that portfolio. So when you've got a growth fund or growth ETF right now, you're looking at, I mean, a lot of them are half of the portfolios are in those growth stocks and we're seeing that slowdown. You start to look in the value area or dividend area and it's well diversified. You've got a handful of sectors. And, you know, we like staples. We like health care. They're leading year to date.

There's a handful of reasons, but primarily because of their defensive characteristics. Well, as people, you know, many people take that phone call this year. I'm sure last year in the last couple of years, it was a little more out of favor. Matt, thanks for now. It's good to see you. Matt Powers. We appreciate it. Thank you.

Let's get to Bertha Coombs now for the CNBC News Update. Bertha. Kelly, Ukraine issued a joint statement with the U.S. just moments ago, saying it is open to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The revelation coming after eight hours of talks between Washington and Kiev in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. also said it would restore intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine and that the two sides are working on a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine's critical. mineral resources. Russia has yet to respond. The FAA extended a ban on U.S. flights to Haiti's capital today, citing risks from armed gangs in that country. The agency temporarily stopped all flights to Porter Prince back in November after gangs opened fire and hit three commercial jetliners.

The ban was suspended or was supposed to expire tomorrow, but will now last at least until September 8th. And women's sports enjoyed a marquee year in 2024, especially when it came to television advertising. According to TV marketing firm EDO, TV advertisers spent $240 million on women's sports last year. That's 139% year-over-year increase. Basketball received the most investment. No surprise there with Caitlin Clark. Back over to you, Kelly. It's on the up and up.

Bertha thanks, Bertha Coombs. Meanwhile, the NTSB is out with some safety recommendations following the deadly crash in Washington at Reagan Airport in January. Phila Bow has the details. Phil? Kelly, the NTSB investigation has come up with what it believes is a couple of solutions that should prevent anything like this happening again at Reagan National.

The head of the NTSB, Jennifer Hammondy, just gave a briefing with reporters, essentially saying, look, we went back and looked at all the data and the number of close calls where proximity between a commercial aircraft and a helicopter was far too close. There were far too many of these incidents, and as a result, they are calling for a ban on helicopter flights while there are commercial aircraft taking off and landing. Here's with the head of the NTSB had to say just a few minutes ago. Our recommendations are focused on runway 15 and runway 3-3 and prohibiting that helicopter traffic when those are in operation. We did not address runway one. That can continue.

And again, these are recommendations from the NTSB. We will be hearing from the Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, a little bit later on this afternoon. They, the Transportation Department, they are the ones who would ultimately make any decisions in terms of a permanent ban for helicopter activity when there are commercial aircraft taking off and landing Kelly. But it's clear from the comments from the head of the NTSB. She says this is an intolerable risk. And their recommendation, again, is to cease all helicopter flights at the same time that commercial aircraft are taking off and landing on the two runways at Reagan National. I think that would be reassuring to a lot of people. Phil, thanks very much. We appreciate it, Phil LeBelle. Meantime, let's get back down

to Sierra Week in Houston. We've seen some headlines from the Alberta Prime Minister, Brian. But you're here with a different special guest. Welcome. Yeah, you know, on that very quickly, Kelly, I was just speaking to somebody who said, listen, Doug Ford is a good guy. He was on CNBC this morning. I know that. But he doesn't speak for all of Canada. And I'll be honest, I've met some Canadians here that are actually frustrated. They say, listen, we respect what Doug Ford, Ontario are doing. But he's one small part of the Canadian story. And maybe Manitoba or Saskatchewan or Alberta or British Columbia feel differently.

So a little bit of a side note on sort of the, you know, the Canadian. Maybe they're having a little conflict in the media up there. Either way, let's talk with one of our favorite guests. That is Scott Sheffield. He's the founder and former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources. That company has been sold. Scott doing very, very few interviews these days. We'll get to why in just a second.

I always like the joke that the best CEO guest is a former CEO. Not because I love all of our guests, by the way. The oil and gas industry uses a lot of steel, a lot of steel, a lot of aluminum. Tubes, pipes, pipelines, whatever. What do you make of these potential tariffs? I've seen tariffs off and on for the last 20, 30 years in my business in the industry. They come and go, but what happens when they put tariffs on, in reality, the U.S. steel companies raise their prices. So higher tariffs by companies coming in, it raises U.S. steel prices.

It costs us more to drill wells. Do you think there are companies raising their prices without even having a higher price themselves just because they can? Exactly. Yes. So it just happens. It gives them room to move prices up. So how would a, how would a, if you knew a publicly traded oil and gas CEO today, how would you respond to this? We hope, I mean, I hope that what Trump is doing is going to work.

He's got two years to prove it with all these tariffs. I know he's trying to create more jobs in this country. And I hope he's right, but he's got two years to make it successful. What do you think he's trying to do? What does Scott Sheffield think Donald Trump is trying to do? He's trying to get more jobs here. Like we buy 17 million cars a year. Seven million comes in from outside.

So he's trying to get more companies to make the products in this country, create more jobs, as simple as that. Last time we spoke, I think there was 9 million barrels a day being pulled out of the U.S. I think it's 13 plus nowadays. I talk to people that say, listen, I mean, I don't disagree with the president, but I don't think we're going to be able to go up that much further in oil production. were the biggest producer in the Permian Basin. Is there much more room to grow oil production

above 13.2 or 4.4 million barrels a day in the US? Now, one of the main reasons that Pioneer sold, we had a choice. I felt like that we had to diversify. We were running out of Tier 1 inventory. Everybody's running out of Tier 1 inventory. Tier 1, the best inventory is going to be run out of Pioneer by 2028, Tier 2 by 32.

So people don't talk about the fact that we're running out of inventory. And the question is, where is oil prices going? With what's happening with all prices, with the Saudi move to add 2 million barrels a day over the next 18 months, you got Kazakhstan adding oil, you got Kurdistan adding oil, we got Canada, Brazil adding oil. There's too much supply in the world. Can we add to supply and have lower prices at the same time? At $50 oil, there's been some discussion in the Trump administration about $50 oil.

what most people don't realize we're at 50 already inflation adjusted. If you go back 20 years, we're at $50 oil today. If we go to a true 50, you go back to 1516, U.S. production was declining in 2015 and 16. The break even, cash break even, including dividends for public companies, is $50 to $55 oil. At $50 oil, it's not going to work. Very quickly, the FTC is accusing you of colluding with OPEC and the Saudis on prices. I can't let you go to that asking about the case and they professed your innocence. Where does it stand? What's funny, obviously, I was shocked when it came out.

I feel a little weaponized. Trump has been weaponized significantly last four years, so I feel a small version of that by Lena Kahn. And so if you go back, you saw me at the 2018 OPEC meeting. I did. Okay. So I had one dinner with 30 CEOs, the Barkendo. I go to one at OPEC meeting. I go meet with Abdul Aziz, Ben Solomon for 15 minutes.

They put all in 22. They put all that together and says I'm colluding with OPEC with 400,000 barrels of oil per day. It does not make sense. So I filed a lawsuit in federal court against the FTC and Lena Kahn and the two Democratic commissioners. Let us know how that shakes out. But we always love having your views. Scott Sheffield, the founder and former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources. Thank you very much.

Power lunch to take a short break. In fact, Brian, right after this. And welcome to a special CNBC Golf Channel simulcast. We're teaming up for a look at the business of golf as the PGA Tour Commissioner gives his state of the tour this morning. Ahead of this weekend's players championship, CNBC's very own Dominic Chu is out at TPC Sawgrass. Dom, it's good to see you, and what can you tell us? So, Kelly, as you might suspect, the scene here is gorgeous. As you can see behind me here, the weather forecast looks very favorable for the rest of the week.

Now, ideal macro conditions, if you want to call them that, for the PGA Tour's biggest event of the year. Earlier this morning, Commissioner Jay Monaghan gave his annual address at the Players' Championship. Out of all of the things, he could have addressed right off the bat, Monaghan's opening remarks addressed that elephant in the room, and that's the state of the negotiations between the Tour and the Saudi-backed Live Golf League. Now, he characterized the merger talks as, quote, real and substantial, but he also addressed just how important President Trump has been as a facilitator of those ongoing merger talks.

He wants to see the game reunified? We want to see the game reunified. And his involvement has made the prospect of reunification very real. When you're in the midst of complex negotiations, particularly when you may be near a breakthrough, there are ebbs and flows in the discussion. The most important thing is the mutual respect that we've built over the last couple of years. We appreciate Yasser's innovative vision, and we can see a future where we welcome him onto our board

and work together to move the global game forward. All right, so Monahan hinting perhaps that the talks are progressing. That's the merger update. Meanwhile, the tour continues to try to push forward and try to sustain. the positive momentum it's been seeing as of late. TV ratings have been on a bright spot here so far over the last month or so in a month and a half. The average audience size is up roughly 17% compared to the same time last year. It's been ebbing and flowing for the past few years, but it's up this time around. It's not, though, just linear television. Golf's streaming

audience is also seeing upticks as well. The PGA Tour live feed has been the most streamed live content on the ESPN Plus platform for the last three years. and is currently on track to do the same in 2025 as well. Meanwhile, on the sponsorship front, the PGA Tour says it has secured $4 billion worth of new sponsor commitments through the year 2035. The tour extended 14 sponsorships last year and added 13 new ones into the mix this time around. So that is the update from today here at TPC Sawgrass. Be sure, of course, to tune in tomorrow for another Golf Channel and CNBC simulcast when we'll be sitting down exclusively with PGA. Tour Commissioner Jay Monaghan to talk merger, private equity involved in the state of the game,

and just about everything in between. So, guys, it's been a really, really fun time here so far. It's a signature event. It's, and it's, of course, just gorgeous, as you can see behind me here. I'm jealous. Dom, thanks very much. It's good to see you. We really appreciate it today. Our thanks to Dominic Chu. Coming up on CNBC, we'll take a look at some individual movers. The market is coming back amid talk of a Ukraine ceasefire and some more optimistic talk out of Canada, just in the past couple of moments. And for those of you watching on the Gulf Channel, stay tuned for our continuing coverage

live from the Players Championship. Welcome back, huge turnaround this afternoon. If you last checked when the Dow was down more than 700 points, well, now it's not quite positive, but we're down only 192 key events. There's talks of a potential Ukraine deal and some positive news flow potentially coming out of Ontario in terms of the Canadian tariffs the president was threatening.

We'll have more on that in a moment. First, let's get to some stockpings. Let's hit three different movers and what to do about them with our trader today. Rebecca Walzer, president at Walzer Wealth Management. And Rebecca, so you know the backdrop. It's changing moment to moment here. But let's take the example of Disney. Drag down today with the travel stocks after that awful warning from Delta Airlines on the consumer. People are worried about the readthrough to their theme parks. Disney's down 13% month to date. Buying opportunity or no? No, I mean, we're a sell here. They do some positives, Kelly. You know, there are basically,

They've increased their dividend, 33%. They have a 50% off their all-time high. And the consensus is that they still have about a 29% price action. They could go up. However, top to bottom, Disney is a company in search of itself. We know they just had a 6% staff layoff with 200 associates at the ABC side. We also know that they are super tied into, as you just mentioned, with the travel stock problem. They're super tied into consumer sentiments.

If you look at the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment, you can see consumers expecting now, potentially even a recession. that's going to weigh on vacation planning, you know, all of these things that will actually impact Disney. They did well with Moana, $1 billion through Martin Luther King, but they don't expect to release anything in Q1 that's going to have a substantial impact. Snow White doesn't get released until March 21st. So for right now on Disney, with all of the things going on, we are a sell on this one. All right, fine.

What about Verizon? On pace for its worst day since 2008, warned of softer subscriber growth, in part because of competitive pressures. This one had been a good yield play, and so it was a first. 52-week high yesterday. What do you do here? Yeah. This one is also a sell. You're 100% right. They have a 6.28% dividend yield. They have grown that almost 2% in just under a year. So that is incredible. However, when we look top to bottom from their perspective, we're seeing all of the chief revenue officers saying that they expect revenue and subscriptions to be soft and they expect

basically revenue to be flat, phone growth to be flat or decreasing. So they are off only 10% of their all-time high in December of 2020. And yet if we compare them to like T-Mobile, T-Mobile has grown their stock price 200% in the last five years. Verizon has contracted 20% in the last five years. So we do see competitors in the space that are just better infrastructure situated. And so we would be a sell on Verizon right now as well. All right.

You do have a buy, though, and it's in a space that more people are flocking into the healthcare space, and you're going with Eli Lilly. Those shares are now positive on the session, so they've erased their losses. It's a 7.5% year-to-date. So it is bucking the trend and doing nicely. And why do you think you can stay with it? Yeah. You know, Kelly, healthcare is a good place to be in in a year of disruption.

I would say this is 2025. It's going to be a volatile year of disruption. The AI space is obviously getting disrupted. We've got a lot of stuff going on with China. So the health care space is something that's maybe a little bit more stable like a utility, but not nearly like a utility, but just a little more stable in comparison to a growth stock. So this stock, even though it's considered a growth stock, they have increased or given for 10 years in a row. They have Mongero expecting with manufacturing.

They have a pretty good Zep bound weight loss. We think that it's going to be a good competitive space. They're getting some good decisions on compounding that has to use certain things that will help them this year. And we also see that some of their competitors in the weight loss space is going to have some more struggles. So overall, it's actually it's expensive at 830. It's an expensive stock, which they would maybe consider a stock split. But they do have a 45% revenue growth quarter over quarter. And they're expecting 32% year-over-year revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 with 50%.

with 58 to 61 billion. So we are a buy, even though this is a little bit expensive, because healthcare we think is going to, especially weight loss. You know, that's all the rage, Kelly, and I think that they're going to have a go in the Zetbound. Yeah, every time I catch up with people lately, at least one person out of the two or three, they're on one of the weight loss drugs. Rebecca, thanks. Appreciate it today, Rebecca Walzer.

Stocks are well off session lows. In fact, the NASDA, I mean, how many are positive right now? Megan Kisela is at the White House for the details on two developing stories, Megan, that have improved sentiment on Ukraine and on Canada. Absolutely, Kelly, a lot of moving pieces here. First on Canada, we're hearing from Ontario Premier Doug Ford. We knew that he had a call scheduled today with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik. That was the level of communication, even though President Trump was not speaking with the Prime Minister.

Ford and Lutnik have now put out a joint statement saying that they have agreed to meet in person two days from now on Thursday to discuss a renewed USMCA, and they're doing that ahead of the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. Canada also says that Ontario has agreed to suspend its 25 percent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota. So a potential breakthrough there, Kelly, what we don't know for certain yet is whether the White House will lower those 50 percent tariffs that they're threatening back to 25 percent or at least take the threat off the table of going to 50 percent in exchange for this.

But we do know it was the electricity, the threats of electricity getting cut off that led President Trump to make that threat earlier today. We can hope or we'll keep an eye on whether now he will remove that threat, given that Canada, Ontario has now taken that threat off of the table. Doug Ford, the Ontario Premier, is continuing to talk with reporters now. He says that Lutnik reached out and offered this as an olive branch, but that if these tariffs are in place, Ottawa will respond dollar for dollar. So some tensions continuing, but a potential breakthrough there at the same time, Kelly, that

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Saudi Arabia, saying that the Ukrainians have agreed a ceasefire. Crucially, they still have to bring this potential deal to Russia, but a potential breakthrough there as well, Kelly. So a lot of good news for the markets all around. And Megan, the U.S. has also agreed to resume military aid to the Ukraine, I believe. Yes, absolutely. That temporary suspension is now lifted. So it looks like conversations ongoing with the Ukrainians, which was the first big step after that meeting with Zelensky here at the White House a couple of weeks ago, had really put things on ice in that relationship. Now, of course, it's at the Rubio and Mike Waltz level, rather than that.

not the principal level, but definitely the first step in restarting those communications and those relations. Yeah, indeed. Let's get, Megan, stay right there with us, if you don't mind. We're just going to get a quick look at the markets, and we'll show all the major averages for a kind of a broad sense of what's going on today. Let's start with the NASDAQ up 1%. It had been outperforming all session long, but it's firmly in the green now. Names like NVIDIA in particular are trying to lead the way there on a little bit of a rebound. The S&P is now up a quarter percent, And of course, notably, earlier today with the sell-off, the S&P had dipped into correction territory, meaning a 10% correction from the recent highs. Not just that. But the speed with which that happened, it took about three weeks to go from its high to that 10% correction.

The last time we saw that was during COVID. So again, a five-year period there where we haven't seen an event like this. Dow is still down about half a percent. Brian Sullivan is still down in Sierra Week at Houston. And Brian, wow, what a change in sentiment here all of a sudden. You and I, I think Kelly, should take credit. We'll call it the Bergam Bounce when the Secretary of the Interior, former tech CEO, said that none of the tech companies he talked to here were seeing or talking about any cut to their capital spending plans. I doubt that was the reason for the market turnaround,

but it did seem to maybe calm some nerves because everything here, Kelly, it's not just about oil and gas, it's about just general energy demand. And so much of that is coming from AI. That's why Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are all. here for the first time ever. And Brian, I think also you made some comments top of the hour about how Alberta had said, look, we want a constructive relationship with the U.S., what is happening on Ontario. That's not necessarily emblematic.

And we're still waiting to hear from the Prime Minister-elect more directly. I don't know if he's spoken with Trump yet, but some signs here of a breakthrough. Yeah, all I've heard from a lot of my Canadian friends here is that Doug Ford, they like him, Ontario. He does not speak for all of Canada. They don't want tariffs at all, but we got to be careful. Mark Carney is now the head of Canada, and to hear from the head of one province, like the governor of one state saying, I speak for the whole United States,

as we know it's not how it works. Indeed, Brian, good to see you. Good stuff. This hour, Brian Sullivan. That's it for Power Lunch. Closing bell starts right now.