Power Lunch - Stocks Bounce as Anthropic Calms Investors 2/24/26

Episode Date: February 24, 2026

Oppenheimer head of technical analysis Ari Wald gives his outlook on markets from the technical side. Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco joins the show to discuss LNG.    And how is AI affecting employee pay? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The stock buyers are back as the East Coast and traders dig out. Literally, welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian with Kelly. More on your money and the big moves here ahead. Plus, how America keeps on saving Europe. The CEO, one of our biggest energy exporters, is here, along with the news story about Iran that may keep the energy world on edge. Looking forward to that. All right.

Plus, Anthropic makes a major enterprise push, rolling out powerful new clawed AI capabilities and begging, betting big on hundreds, even thousands. of customized plugins. And news that would have once crushed stocks affected by it is now fueling a productivity boom, and those shares are moving higher. We have more coming up. Speaking of AI, we know how it's impacting how you do your job. But is it impacting your paycheck? A new report from Payscale with some surprising data and CEO Chris Hayes is coming up.

That's going to be a big one. I like that. AI and jobs kind of the whole conversation right now. All right, we've got all that to get to. But let's start by kind of all breathing, aside. relief. Stocks, they're back higher. Even software stocks are higher as something that has just happened that maybe calms some fears around AI. Goes to that job story we just hinted about. Let's get the news and the reactions and kick things off with Kate Rooney in San Francisco because it's a bit of an

odd story, but it is one that does appear to be moving the market. Brian, you said it perfectly a sigh relief. So the message this morning out of Anthropic, it really wants to empower other companies not disrupt their business models or their own customers. So at a live event this morning, the company announced it's rolling out new tools for enterprises and what it calls knowledge workers. Executives now say it's going to make employees more productive, far beyond just using a chatbot. So investors, though, responded with that sigh of relief and a boost to Anthropics partners that were mentioned on stage.

You had Salesforce into it, Thompson, Reuters, Spotify, doc, you sign all popping higher as soon as they were mentioned. And then Goldman Sachs noted the move looked more like short covering than any sort of way. of new long-only buying, but it's a much different reaction than what we've seen earlier in concerns around Claude's coding tools, which had fueled fears about software disruption and have really weighed on that group, guys. Right, exactly. Kate, thank you for now.

As a result, the software ETF, the IGV, is on track to snap a three-day losing streak. But to say the group has been clobbered would be an understatement. This year alone, the IGV has lost a quarter of its value. In fact, according to Creative Planning's Charlie Bellello, software's relative strength versus the NASDAQ 100 hit an all-time low yesterday. So is today the start of a real turnaround

or just a head fake? Is there more pain ahead? Let's ask Ari Waldie's head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. It's great to have you here. What's your sense of things? Well, the destruction's been amazing. Not only down 20% below 200 day average, but with the market unfazed, you know, really still at all-time highs here.

So to answer that question, no, I don't think this is the the inflection in the group. It's trading, I think on the screen at $78. I think that's important because this is an important level. $76 is the 2024, 2025 low point. This has been the floor. So there's two ways to play it. If you're an incredibly flexible trader, you buy it with a stop at 76, close a blow 76, you're out. Or you buy it with a very long time horizon, 12 plus months. But I do not think we're at a point where upside can be sustained without several months of of backing and filling. I think that's going to at least.

What if it breaches those 2024 lows you just referenced? Then you're out. Then you're out. Yeah, no, this is a falling. Well, how far is it going to go? Down, a lot, I suspect, right? What it looks like a snowflake, sort of icicle overhanging an awning right now. That's right. We say the bottom of the chart is not support there. The assumption is that ultimate support is zero dollars. We don't know. I'm not set a target of how far it'll fall. I'm going to let someone smarter than me buy it first and let it carve out that base.

Right. So does it make you, what more do we say about what's going on in tech right now, which the whole sector has its issues. There are parts that are much stronger, obviously, if you can really get into like semi-cap and tools and, you know, things like that. But the biggest market caps are weighed down by the forces that you're describing. Yeah, yeah, I'd argue it's quite concentrated in software. Semiconductors look terrific. You know, the big caps are a bit mixed here. I think there's still a place for tech for the long run.

I've semiconductor is one of our top industries, great source for beta. And I think even in terms of software, you can be selective. If you're looking for opportunities, you're looking for stocks like a MongoDB, which is above its 200-day average. Still down 30%. That's an idea that our fundamentalist likes. Because they do like data tagging, right? I don't know. Let me not venture into it.

But it's something as I understand it that could be more supportive of AI rollout as opposed to being disintermediated by it. There's something where the charts are holding up better than others, like an Adobe, which has broken a six-year top, below the 2022 low point. Adobe was one of the original SaaS stories, right? You go back to Value Act and Jeff Ubbett and this whole thing where then everyone in the industry basically copied them and now here they are just getting carried out as this whole trade reverses. The whole group's under pressure. So I guess the debate, I think, and I'm going to speak very generally because they're all these companies are different. The debate is whether or not they're needed. Do we need this? if AI can do that. We don't know.

But I will ask you this, A. Ari, does the market need these stocks? Does software matter at all to the broader index? It matters. I think right now, it matters for growth PMs. It's a big part of those benchmarks. But what I think you're seeing here is this incredibly bullish rotation. You're not seeing value outperform by simply falling less.

You're selling, seeing these stocks accelerate to the. the upside. You know, for every, the select, I'd say it's very concentrated weakness in software against that rollover, you're seeing, that's being balanced by a greater number of industries breaking to the upside. You've had the highest expansion of new eyes in over a year there. This is sounding good. So to us, this is a bullish rotation. I think there's going to be parts of the market that are picking up the slack. What would you say the highest number of new highs in a year? Since November 24. Wow. Okay. You see that report that came out, everybody's been talking about it? I'm sure you guys. Yeah.

Yes, you probably, I missed the show yesterday. Not much. A little bit. You did talk, but you did talk about the Citrini research report about everything's going to go away and tokenization of everything like this. Is that what's been moving the market, or is the market seem knife edge reactionary to anything that comes out that seems to, no matter where it's from, that anything that comes out that suggests that AI is going to kill. blank, insert, whatever that thing is. Is that what we feel like we're easily rattled at this point? And you're seeing that play out, whether it's the real estate brokers, and it's been rumbling through the market here. Every day we had, wealth advisors, real estate brokers, truckers, commercial

real estate companies, boom, boom, boom, boom. And what has that created, this bottom-up dispersion is a significant divide. I'm sensing it from all my clients between sentiment and price action. The sentiment of the market right now and investors is quite fearful, given the fact that the S&P 500 is only about 2% off an all-time high. Can you settle a debate from last hour about the financials? Carter Worth is quite bearish on them. A lot more kind of fundamental guesses still think they look pretty good, no reason to hate them.

Not to put you on the spot, but do you have a point of view about the financial sector here, which is all of a sudden stumbled yesterday, and now is one of the worst performing year to date? Yeah, it's a sector we downgraded in January because of some weakness on an equally weighted basis. I think some of the strength was in the big cap banks and brokers. But you're seeing the insurance, excuse me, the payment names roll over, and obviously the private equity names.

And, yeah, you're seeing some broadening weakness there, which is a group that we'd be more cautious on over the near term. So I would agree with that assessment. Does that settle your debate, Kelly? Well, I realize I asked another technician, and Carter's also. So from the technical point of view, it seems like everyone agrees. It's just that perhaps the charts will change, you know, if they can show some strength again, maybe put some of these AI concerns behind them.

and then we can tell a better story about the broader market, I would think. Yeah, and again, look at the action in capital goods and industrial. So the market can define even if the financials are struggling? I think so. I mean, there's always an area, is it about software, about semis, about banks? I mean, look at semiconductors as kind of been that key leading barometer for so many years. That group is still acting great. I think high beta stocks in general and cyclical.

So for all these reasons, I think the weight of the evidence, fourth year of the bull market cycle, getting, later on it doesn't owe us anything, but I think there's still some positives out there. Well, there is a guy here that pretty smart says there's always a bull market somewhere. Erie Wald, thank you very much, do appreciate that. All right, speaking of financials, 10 year yields, they are oh so close. Falling back below 4%. All that is a big bond auction closed. Just about an hour ago. Let's get more on what all of this means. Rick Santelli, joining us now from Chicago. I saw your grade. I saw the auction. And that 4% level, Rick, we're not there yet.

But we're getting closer. Yes, we are. And we've been getting close to it basically for most of last year towards the end and lots of time this year. Let's start at the beginning. Let's look at today's chart. What was the low? 4.02. That was the intraday low.

Now, let's go to yesterday. What was yesterday's low? 4.01. Let's go to a week ago Tuesday. What was the low intraday yield? 4.01. So, yes, Sully, you're spot on. We keep chipping away down there.

And if you look at a year-to-date chart, you can see we're hovering both on a closing basis and intraday basis at the lows of the year. But the last time we actually settled under 4% were the 26th of November, actually two days, 25th and 26th. Then there was a bunch of days in October. All told for 2025, we had less than 10 settlements under 4%. and the low yield close for the year in October was 3.95%. Is it not only a huge psychological level, there would be big follow-through if we actually started to spend some time under 4%. And all those potential buyers of houses out there, of course,

are keeping their finger crossed. But there's a lot of moving parts here, and I'm not sure with all the debt we carry in this administration, making big progress on growth. If we can eat away at the debt, maybe we can. And the last chart, well, this is a 210 spread. Look at how it's been going straight down. It's flattening again today.

But today, the tenure is the passive component. The two-year yields up, that's the active component. But really lately, it's been mostly about the tenure going down that's been flattening the curve. Kelly, back to you. Flatening the curve, financials underperforming. I don't know. Maybe we're all talking about the same thing. Rick, thank you.

Coming up, the deal of the day that is causing AMD stock to surge. but did they give up too much for it? We'll tell you after the break. Welcome back to Power Lunch, where you can see shares of AMD soaring today about 9% meta on the rise as well as the two mega-cap companies struck a multi-year deal to deploy up to six gigawatts of GPUs for AI data centers. AMD CEO Lisa Sue joins Squawk on the street for an exclusive interview this morning explaining how this deal marks an inflection point for AI. We are sizing this AI accelerator market at, you know, a trillion dollars over the next five years. It's a huge, huge market. And we're actually at an inflection point where, you know, I'm a big believer in there's no one-size-fits-all.

Frankly, you need a lot of different types of compute. AMD has all of the pieces. So we have CPUs, GPUs. We have the system infrastructure. And what we want to do is place bets on, you know, who we think are going to be the winners in AI innovation going forward. And who might those winners be, which companies will come out on top for AI innovation?

Joining us now to give us its take is James Chuckmuck, the chief investment officer at Clockwise Capital. James, welcome to you. How do you feel about the deal? I mean, I think it makes a lot of sense from a meta standpoint. I mean, why wouldn't you want to diversify your supply base? You know that the pace of build-out that you want, and at the same time shore up your supply

to make sure that you have everything that you need for it and 10% on top. So I think it makes a lot of sense from meta standpoint. I think there's more question marks as it relates to A&D. Obviously, it's good today. You see the pop in the stock. But, you know, there's questions about, you know, why they have to keep doing this and give up equity in exchange to, you know, fulfill demand.

I think it does show promise in the fact that their next generation offerings will continue to, you know, have a demand in the market. But, you know, between the two and AMD and NVIDIA, you know, we lean towards in Midia. Well, to your point, they've done it again. They had an open AI similarly structured deal, so 10% there, 10% here. Like the Oprah of AI. No, yeah.

Check under your seat. There's another piece of AMD. It might make sense for them to lock in these long-term. Look, at the end of the day, you can have the public market shareholders. You could have a long-term partner like one of these companies. It seems to make sense. I'm actually more curious what you think about from Medas point of you. I mean, do you want a company like this getting into the semiconductor business?

Yeah, I think so. I think it makes a lot of sense. You know, I think a lot of these companies will continue to develop in-house. And obviously, I think it makes sense from a standpoint that this is the way the world is going. So why wouldn't you want to participate in that in a more direct way? So I think from a meta standpoint, it makes more sense and, you know, raises some questions about AMD, but ultimately I think it's still a two-horse race, AMD that will do well. It's just, you know, which one does relatively better. you know, we are air on the side of NVIDIA.

I want to ask you, James, about Apple if I can. I know it's one of your biggest holdings. It's a company you love. Moments ago, Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, you might have heard about that guy, confirming that the Mac Mini, which has been popularized, by the way, lately is kind of a network server

is going to be manufactured for the first time ever in the United States in Houston. So it's a big win for H-Town, go Houston. That said, do these types of announcements matter? Either way, for the stock, does it matter to Apple investors where not jobs? We know that does matter. But for investors, does it matter where Apple products are made? I think you can make an argument to some.

It might matter. But from our standpoint, not so much. You know, the way we look at Apple is kind of different than, you know, we're an active fund. So we're constantly thinking for where can we create alpha in terms of, you know, avoiding the downside or capitalizing on the upside. And Apple's not really one of those stocks that we trade. I mean, we look at it as a 5% top line grower, 10% when you include the buybacks and the accretion from the growth in their services business.

So we're not really looking at it like that. I think Apple continues to be a very, very good long-term story. But right now, we're still focused on playing offense where we can on the tech side. But, you know, the market, with your prior segment, you know, there is fragility in there. So I think you have to balance it out with more value-oriented stuff and maintain hedges where you can. I will say, do you think he'd be in the audience, Brian? Tim Cook tonight, State of the Union?

Me, I don't know. But I would imagine that President Trump will reference this Apple News to bring jobs to Texas, which has a pretty tight Senate fight. True. Going on right now, this is a big win for Houston and for the state of Texas. Yeah, and so, James, then I guess. wild stab. Yeah, wild stab,

it may be that's what's going on here. Then where does that leave you on the rest, for instance, the software space? Yeah, I mean, look, software has taken a beating. Not all software is created equal, but we're certainly not going to be participating in a big way anytime soon. I think that the theories around

and the hypotheses around enterprise software will continue to ring true and resoundingly so over time. But, you know, we do like pockets of software. The companies like HUD-8 Corp are in there, obviously it has crypto exposure, but GitLab, you know, that's a new position for us. So, you know, there are opportunities within there, but, you know, the CRMs, the Adobe's and whatnot of the world, we're not really there.

And I think your prior question, Kelly, on the financials. I was just going to ask. I see here that it says that you actually exited the financials. Why is that? Yeah. Well, it's interesting, on your show a couple of months ago at the end of the year, I was like, we're not, that's our kind of least favorite sector heading into the new year but kind of reverse course because looking for value names um but i do think that there is some possible theory that you know there is going to be

increasing correlation between the financial sector and the software sector if things keep going the way that they are on the software sector side so you know we're not we're the exited financials completely you know we're being very very very picky on the software side and um you know opportunistic on broader tech. Well, very quickly, surprise, we have the Hutt 8 CEO on tomorrow following earnings. Look at that. That's great. That's how it works. That's how it works. That's how it works. I think it's a fantastic company. I will, absolutely. I never would miss your show. It's perfect. The shares are up 11% today as we talk about where the big movers are. They're not the names we were talking about six, 12, 18 months ago. Ironically, we did trim it today into the print.

So a tiny bit, just a little off the top. James, thanks for the time. We appreciate it today. Thank you. James Checkmuck with Clockwise Capital. See, sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes you just get good. Sometimes you get both.

All right, coming up. A little bit of a riddle. What happens when the disruptors get disrupted? All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. I'm Dominic here with your market navigator today. Now we talk a lot about potential disruptions in the AI trade. Our next guest is looking at a couple of financial. companies that were known as market disruptors at one point, maybe still are in some way,

but are now the ones getting disrupted in some way. And he says they could offer some good buying opportunities. Jay Woods is our guest. He's at Freedom Capital Markets. He's their chief global strategist and a CNBC contributor as well. So Jay, let's talk about some of these financial firms. And I got to maybe think that they're fintech oriented, that were those disruptor names that are now the ones that are perhaps getting a little bit more disrupted on a relative basis. Yeah, we've got a two for Tuesday for you, Don. We're going to look at two beating down names that were darling. SoFi and Robin Hood. First, Sofi, both of these stocks, when you look at them technically, have that same rounding top formation. Fundamentally, they've been on a nice run,

and then all of a sudden, with the AI disruption, these two got taken back behind the woodshed as well. But what we see now is an opportunity. We want to see. All right, long-term trend is broken. This is a problem. But when you look at that topping formation in SOFI, it broke down and got to our target. It went from 25 to 32, broke that top. Now a downside target around 18 where it's sitting at now. It gives us an opportunity from a risk reward, and that's what we're looking for, opportunity to buy the stock. And then if you layer in Fibonacci retracement lines, you're right at that golden ratio, 61.8%. And then when you look at momentum indicators, the RSI, a bullish divergence, positive. MacD

showing us a buy signal. So for me, risk reward. SoFi is a good place to enter right here at this $18 level for a nice, quick recovery back to 22, 23 over the coming weeks. All right. Where else are you looking right now besides SOFI? What types of other companies out there in that same vein

are opportunities? Yeah, as I mentioned, Robin Hood. We look at a stock that was a darling last year. Year to date, it's down 37%. but over the last 52 weeks, it's up 43%. This has been quite a topping formation as well. Long term, trend is broken. Still has a lot of work to do.

But short term, when you look at how it's broken down from that topping formation, risk reward, this 70 to 74 level looks like a good opportunity to step in. When you back the chart out to five years, oh my goodness, we have good support from where it broke out initially when it began this magnificent run

that got it included into the S&P 500. So I look for both of these stocks to have nice relief rallies for now. Are they going to turn around? It may take more time. But for someone looking to trade these beaten down names in the financial sector, these two are prime examples of where you can get in now and get a quick reward with very little risk to the downside. All right. Jay Woods with the trade on both Sofa and Robin Hood.

Thank you very much. Jay. We'll see you again soon. Brian, I'll send things back over to you. All right, after the break, a massive milestone for Schneer Energy and the CEO will join us, exclusively to talk about it. Next. It is a big day and a big year for Schneer Energy, the company CEO speaking earlier today at an

Energy Summit in Washington, D.C., and Schneer celebrating the 10th anniversary of its first ever cargo of liquefied natural gas. And later this year, Schneer's 5,000 shipload of gas will also take to the seas. It's also been a big run for the company and its investors. In the past five years, LNG stock has popped 200%. remember every one of its cargoes, gnat gas, powers about roughly 1 million European

homes for one month. Wow. Yeah, wow. And they've done almost 1,800 of those cargoes. So welcome back in, Jack Fusco. He is the president and CEO of Schneer Energy 4. An exclusive energy interview, well, energy, I guess, is appropriate. It's a double entendre,

but it works, Jack, I'll take it. It's been a long couple days. So let's talk about this. Congrats on the 10-year anniversary. And listen, today's Today is the four-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And I have said, and I do not mean this in any form of TV hyperbole, that U.S. gas has literally saved Europe. It's kept the lights and the heat on.

What is it meant for Schneer, its employees, and also for your business? Well, Brian, first, thanks for having me on today. And I have to say, what a glorious day it is to be a Schneer employee. We just got a House resolution passed that called it Schneer USLNG Day, just to recognize the 10 years of exports, the 5,000 cargos here at the Transatlantic Energy Security Council meeting. It was a very warm reception. As you mentioned, it was 1,800 cargoes since the Russian-Ukraine war broke out. It's been over 2,400 cargoes that just Chenier has sent over the last 10 years to Europe. So for me, it has been just a highlight of my 40-year career in energy.

Yeah, it really has been. The exports from the United States replacing all the Russian gas that was mercifully lost to Europe, they need the gas that has to come from somewhere. It's coming from you and the United States. we need a lot of gas to power energy and the data center revolution. Is there then, you saw a big price spike a few months ago, Jack, or gas went to $7 briefly. Do any of those things, data center demand, price spikes, or whatever, do they fundamentally impact your business or your earnings? No, Brian, so when we sent that first cargo out in 2016, their natural gas production in the United States was around 70.

BCF a day, billion cubic feet per day. Today, it's over 120 billion cubic feet per day. So we are blessed with an incredible resource that the rest of the world really needs. So as you mentioned, gas spiked because of weather and it dropped immediately. It's down in the $3 range again today. And, you know, we don't see it. Jack, I'm curious if you would draw parallels between now. Maybe the shale boom is too much, but maybe going back to the early 2000s. We had the dot-com crash, and then we realized, wait a minute, we underinvested in energy and in all these important things.

And then we saw Nat gas prices go up and we saw oil went over 200 barrel in today's dose 140 back then. Could we see something similar now? Are we seeing the beginning when we see what's going on with memory prices? Could we see that more broadly for energy prices like Nat? gas and others? You know, I don't think so, Kelly, because when what we've seen recently is the price of of LNG into Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the JKM marker, when it gets around $10 a million

in MMBTU, it, the demand really increases in Asia and Southwest Asia. So I think what you're going to see is prices are going to moderate and demand is going to to explode. And that'll create stability in the price of natural gas worldwide. You know, here's the crazy thing, Kelly. And Jack knows this. And we've been over in Europe reporting it, and him and his team have also just helped with the raw data. Russia's still selling a huge amount of natural gas to Europe. They're just doing it by LNG, right? Cargos. Is there a time, Jack, where you and some of your colleagues and competitors here in the United States would be able to produce and export enough natural gas that Europe could finally end

buying any Russian gas to try to starve Putin of money for his war machine. Well, no, that's absolutely right, Brian. It's why I'm here today. It's why I've met with the 12 energy ministers of Europe and Director General Dita Jorgensen of the EC. it's to try to make sure they understand that here in America, we are blessed with a great resource of natural gas. We have the innovation.

We have the willpower to continue to build out our infrastructure and make sure that we can deliver to Europe for decades to come. Do you have the support you need, Jack, when I think about, you know, even in parts of this country, we don't have the right infrastructure to get in that gas where it needs to go. And obviously, the export situation has been, different one. And again, one of the great stories of all time. We go from importing it to exporting it. That was only what a decade ago. Now here we are. But do you feel that you have the support

in terms of infrastructure, in terms of regulatory, to kind of do what you think this country needs, what the world needs right now? Absolutely. Secretary Bergam, Secretary Wright, were the hosts. Today, they are 100 percent behind the men and women of USLNG. And this is a totally different administration and fill to the administration as far as wanting to share with our friends and allies this great resource of low-cost natural gas worldwide. Next time we'll ask about whether or not there's a change in that administration in two and half years, Jack. But for today, we're out of time. It's a state of the union. We're going to let you celebrate the 10th anniversary of that cargo Jack Fuscoe president, CEO of Schneer Energy, Jack.

Real pleasure. Congratulations to you and your team. It's a big accomplishment. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right. Let's get to Pippa Stevens now for the CNBC News update. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Kelly. A Utah judge rejected a bit today to disqualify a team of prosecutors and the assassination of Charlie Kirk. The defense for alleged shooter Tyler Robinson argued the prosecutors were biased because the team included a lawyer whose daughter attended the Turning Point USA event where Robinson is accused of fatally shooting Kirk. Robinson is charged with aggravated murder He will not enter a plea until his preliminary hearing, which is tentatively set for mid-May.

The Supreme Court ruled today Americans can't sue the U.S. Postal Service, even if an employee deliberately refuses to deliver mail. In a five to four ruling, the divided court ruled against a Texas landlord who claimed her mail was intentionally withheld for two years as a result of racial prejudice. And the Louvre's museum director is stepping down months after a brazen daytime heist at the museum French President Emmanuel Macron accepted her resignation today, calling it an act of responsibility. In October, thieves stole more than $100 million worth of crown jewels at the world's most visited museum. Kelly, back to you.

All right, thank you, Pippa. Coming up, we are going to talk about peanut butter, AI, and bonuses. And if that's not enough to keep you around, I don't know what is. We're back in a minute. Welcome back. The story today is for all the chaos it's caused in the past week. and month anthropic today is quelling some software disruption fears at its enterprise event, announcing partnerships with some big names in the space.

But at the same time, its head of economics confirming workers are using its tools, more than ever. Here is what he said. About a year ago, roughly a third of all jobs across the U.S. economy had at least a quarter of the tasks that people do in those jobs appearing in our data. So you're a copy editor, something that you do in your daily... job, people are using Claude for, software engineers, of course. That number, a third of all jobs, has risen over the course of the year to around one and every two jobs. And meantime, Payscale is releasing its annual compensation report today, and it finds a majority of employers are updating

existing roles to include AI-related skills, but are not necessarily willing to pay more for that proficiency. Joining us now in an exclusive interview is Chris Hayes. He is PaySkale CEO. Chris, It's great to have you here. Welcome. Great. Thank you for having me. It's great to be here. Could you start by telling us everything you know about AI's impact on the labor market up to this point? In three minutes. Three minutes or less. Yeah, I mean, I think AI is definitely having an impact on the labor market.

I don't think it's as prolific yet as it will be. I think it's more, just the clip you just played, I think, speaks to it a little bit. The AI is starting to take parts of our jobs, so different functions and roles and I think are going to be taken over by AI, but I don't think we're to the point yet where AI is fully taking over a large scale of jobs. Maybe some of the ones that are more easily automated. But where we are today, it's more about just taking pieces and parts of it than the full actual job itself. From your data, can you point to, so we have heard anecdotal examples of companies. They say, you know, we've stopped adding certain headcount or we're letting it,

we're letting attrition take place or we're, I mean, you know, maybe. you can't go company by company, but is your sense overall that AI has led to the loss of any jobs in the broad kind of, you know, view of things that you have? Yeah, I think in the survey that we just released, I think it was something like 30% of companies said that they are either they have eliminated or they're considering eliminating jobs because of AI. And that does break down. There's certain industries have a higher percentage than others.

So I think that's probably the most quotable statistic that we have in the survey that we just released. Right. So 30 to 35% of companies said they, either eliminated a job or may eliminate a job. That's correct. Because AI can do that. And go ahead, Brian.

No, I tweeted out a couple days ago, Chris, and I think we sent it to if you didn't see it, which is basically like, if AI kills all the jobs, there's no consumer spending, and thus there's no economy, and thus there's no reason for AI to exist. And I'm being not a little bit tongue-in-cheek here. The reality is that the economy is consumer spending, 70 to 75 percent. is people having a job, getting a paycheck, going to Vegas, flying, eating, groceries, car payments, whatever it is. AI kills all that. The economy is destroyed. I'm trying to make a point that I can't see AI killing the jobs because then it kills the economy and its own reason to exist. Or maybe, I don't know, I was in the Colorado air for too long recently.

No, I think you're spot on. I mean, I think we've lived through, for those. those of us who are a little bit older, we've lived through quite a few disruptions in our careers. I think this is a disruption. And I think just like the other ones that have happened in the past, jobs will evolve and change and morph, but I don't think that they'll be fully displaced. To your point, I mean, if all of this happens

just for margin improvement and there's not compensation passed on to the people that we all employ, this thing gets really ugly, really quick. And I don't think that's what's going to happen, Brian. I think your points are valid. I think where we are in the macro right now, with some of the stuff that's happening in AI, companies are taking advantage of the macro

and some of the things that are happening AI. I think Sam put an article out a few days ago about talking about AI washing and using AI as an excuse to, like, increase margins. I love that. I do think that will, yeah. I think that will change, though. I think as the talent that AI unlocks

and the different skills, companies will value that talent, they'll end up paying for it, which is something you saw on the survey that people aren't willing to pay for it yet. I think it's because we don't fully understand what skills AI is bringing to us that are going to be valuable, that are going to drive growth and that competitiveness that companies thrive. So I want to make clear what you just said, because I love the point. We've heard about greenwashing where companies say we're green, even though we make gasoline or whatever for a living. This is AI washing. The idea being that companies can use AI as a blanket excuse to either not hire, layoff, or change compensation. Sorry, I can't afford to give you a raise because AI is coming.

And nobody can disprove it. We don't know if it's true, but they can say it. And there's no way for anybody to know if it's actually happening. I haven't seen AI exist in any form at all in my life other than some stupid internet bot that gets it wrong and I end up pressing zero to talk to somebody at least not so far. So far, I think as those skills evolve, though, and companies will value those skills,

we'll start to see the market adjust and we'll start seeing that pay for that. And then as those efficiencies actually manifest into revenue and growth, I do think we'll see a clearer connection. But I would agree with you right now, Brian, it is a little bit murky out there. And finally, Chris, quickly,

what would you say, right now people are not getting paid, for the skill, but you think they ultimately will? Do you see good things happening on the income wage front? I do, actually. So the largest percentage of people said that they weren't paying for AI skills, there was a cohort in the survey. It was roughly 14% that said they were valuing it.

The good part about that is that it was highly valued. So where those skills are becoming relevant and manifesting and observable, companies are willing to pay for them. And to me, that's very encouraging. Indeed. Love the granularity. Thanks for bringing it to us. A great conversation, Chris.

Thanks. Thank you very much. Chris Hayes, CEO of Payscale. Very thought-provoking there. All right, on deck, something else thought-provoking, a scary report around Iran, and what it may mean for both energy and global security, Halima Croft, up next with that. Welcome back. The story today is for all the chaos it's caused in the past weeks and month.

Anthropic today is quelling some software disruption fears at its enterprise event, announcing partnerships with some big names in the space. But at the same time, its head of economics. confirming workers are using its tools more than ever. Here is what he said. About a year ago, roughly a third of all jobs across the U.S. economy had at least a quarter of the tasks that people do in those jobs appearing in our data. So you're a copy editor, something that you do in your daily job. People are using Claude for software engineers, of course. That number, a third of all jobs, has risen over the course of the year to around one and every two

jobs. And meantime, Payscale is releasing its annual compensation report today, and it finds a majority of employers are updating existing roles to include AI-related skills, but are not necessarily willing to pay more for that proficiency. Joining us now in an exclusive interview is Chris Hayes. He is Payscale CEO. Chris, it's great to have you here. Welcome. Great. Thank you for having me. It's great to be here. Could you start by telling us everything you know about AI's impact on the labor market up to this point? In three minutes. Three minutes or less. Yeah, I mean, I think AI is definitely having an impact on the labor market.

I don't think it's as prolific yet as it will be. I think it's more, just the clip you just played, I think speaks to it a little bit. The AI is starting to take parts of our jobs. So different functions and roles and skills, I think are going to be taken over by AI. But I don't think we're to the point yet where AI is fully taking over a large scale of jobs. maybe some of the ones that are more easily automated. But where we are today, it's more about just taking pieces and parts of it

than the full actual job itself. From your data, can you point to, so we have heard anecdotal examples of companies. They say, you know, we've stopped adding certain headcount or we're letting it, we're letting attrition take place, or we're, I mean, you know, maybe you can't go company by company, but is your sense overall that AI has led to the loss

of any jobs in the broad kind of, you know, view of things that you have? Yeah, I think in the survey that we just released, I think it was something like 30% of companies said that they are either they have eliminated or they're considering eliminating jobs because of AI. And that does break down, there's certain industries have a higher percentage than others. So I think that's probably the most quotable statistic that we have in the survey that we

just released. Right. So 30 to 35% of companies said they've either eliminated a job or may eliminate a job. That's correct. Because AI can do that. And go ahead, Brian. No, I tweeted out a couple. A couple days ago, Chris, and I think we sent it to if you didn't see it, which is basically

like, if AI kills all the jobs, there's no consumer spending, and thus there's no economy, and thus there's no reason for AI to exist. And I'm being not a little bit tongue-in-cheek here. The reality is that the economy is consumer spending, 70 to 75 percent is people having a job, getting a paycheck, going to Vegas, flying, eating, groceries, car payments, whatever it is. AI kills all that. The economy is destroyed. I'm trying to make a point that I can't see AI killing the jobs

because then it kills the economy and its own reason to exist. Or maybe, I don't know, I was in the Colorado air for too long recently. No, I think you're spot on. I mean, I think we've lived through, for those of us who are a little bit older, we've lived through quite a few disruptions in our careers. I think this is a disruption. And I think just like the other ones that have happened in the past, jobs will evolve and change and morph,

but I don't think that they'll be fully displaced. To your point, I mean, if all of this happens just for margin improvement and there's not compensation passed on to the people that we all employ, this thing gets really ugly, really quick. And I don't think that's what's going to happen, Brian. I think your point's a valid one. I think where we are in the macro right now, with some of the stuff that's happening in AI,

companies are taking advantage of the macro and some of the things that are happening AI to, I think Sam put an article out a few days ago about talking about AI washing and using AI as an excuse to like increase margins. I love that. I do think that will, yeah, I think that will change though. I think as the talent that AI unlocks and the different skills, companies will value that talent, they'll end up paying for it, which is something you saw on the survey that people aren't willing to pay for it yet. I think it's because we don't fully understand what skills AI is

bringing to us that are going to be valuable, that are going to drive gross and that competitiveness that companies thrive. So I want to make clear what you just said, because I love the point. We've heard of, you know, about greenwashing where companies say we're green, even though we, you know, make, you know, gasoline or whatever for a living. This is AI washing. The idea being that companies can use AI as a blanket excuse to either not hire, lay off or change compensation, right? Sorry, I can't afford to give you a raise because AI is coming and nobody can disprove it. We don't know if it's true, but they can say it and there's no way for anybody to know if it's actually happening. I haven't seen AI exist in

any form at all in my life other than some stupid internet bot that gets it wrong and I end up pressing zero to talk to somebody at least not so far. So far, I think as those skills evolve, though, and companies will value those skills, we'll start to see the market adjust and we'll start seeing that pay for that. And then as those efficiencies actually manifest into revenue and growth, I do think we'll see a clearer connection. But I would agree with you right now, Brian. It is a little bit murky out there.

And finally, Chris, quickly, what would you say right now people are not getting paid for the skill, but you think they ultimately will? Do you see good things happening on the income wage front? I do, actually. Within, so the largest percentage of people said that they weren't paying for AI skills, there was a cohort in the survey. It was roughly 14% that said they were valuing it. The good part about that is that it was highly valued.

So where those skills are becoming relevant and manifesting and observable, companies are willing to pay for them. And that's, to me, that's very encouraging. Indeed. Love the granularity. Thanks for bringing it to us. A great conversation. Chris, thanks. Thank you very much.

Chris Hayes, CEO of Payscale. Very thought-provoking there. All right, on deck. Something else thought-provoking. a scary report around Iran, and what it may mean for both energy and global security, Halima Croft, up next with that. All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. The real threat of U.S. military action against Iran is high, and it may be going higher.

Today, Reuters exclusively reporting that Iran is getting close to buying dangerous anti-ship missiles from China. That's one report. But if it's true, that would raise Iran's ability to strike American or Western oil tank, or other ships in these strategically important straight of Hormuz or the Arabian Gulf. Oil is ticking a little bit lower today, but overall it's been kind of quietly creeping back toward $70 a barrel here in the United States. All that as bullish bets on oil continue to go up in the options market.

Let's talk about the geopolitical risk and worth Halima Kroff, head of global commodity research, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC contributor, Halima. Thanks for coming back on. this report again, one report, one report. But if it is true, it would imply that Iran is in no way backing down against President Trump, who has basically threatened Iran and said, you better back down or we're going to back up. And what I think a lot of people don't realize is that the American naval and air capabilities in the Iranian region are the highest level in 30 years. I mean, this is the highest level since 2003, the invasion.

If we think about it in terms of the Iranians and this report, it basically shows that the Iranians have no intention of pairing back their military purchases. Now, these supersonic missiles, we don't not know when they would be delivered. It would be in violation of the reinstatement of a UN weapons ban in September. One of the things the Iranians have been very focused on rebuilding air defense systems with the help with the Russians. That has been a key issue for the Israelis. They have said that not only do they want the United States to launch military

action to deal with the Iranian nuclear program. They also want to eliminate the missile threat as well. And the Iranians for now are saying they will not compromise on missiles and they retain the right to enrich uranium domestically. So we have not seen either side really make significant concessions as we head into the very critical negotiations which will take place in Thursday, on Thursday in Geneva, potentially the last round of negotiations. Yeah. And I'm going to ask you a question, Halima, which I know there's no way for anybody, maybe outside President Trump, to know for sure. But I guess what the market seems to be trying to figure out, there's a lot of bullish options bets, by the way, happening on crude oil.

Yeah. Wait, hold on. We got some breaking news, Alima. Yep. Joe Kernan, standing by, Joe, with some breaking news to the White House. Welcome. Yes, just came away from lunch with the president. And there are a few things that I am able to report.

He's excited about the speech tonight. He says he's going to write it right now. I think it's probably mostly written. Going to celebrate the 250 years of this great country and how well the country is doing right now economically. He's predicting the next three years will be the best the country has done economically in history. And among other things he's going to talk about tonight

is another tax cut, both on the corporate and the personal side. Mostly on the personal side have to be done either through reconciliation or if some Democrats can come along with it. We do it that way. But that's really the takeaway. Another tax cut, both corporate and personal, but weighted to the personal. And it's going to be announced tonight and be done through reconciliation. So I can tell you that much. New. He's pumped. He's excited. And, you know, there's going to be some amazing guests tonight, I think, at the SOTU, State of the Union, and a celebration of the 250 years as well as how all the country's doing right now.

There's like 1,000 CalShe contracts, Joe, waiting for you to name drop if you know someone who might be there. But so personal and corporate taxes that you think we don't know about yet, or we're going to find out more about? That you're going to hear about it tonight, but both personal and corporate, but waited to the personal side. And through reconciliation. I don't think we knew completely that there'd be another attempt at reconciliation. But should we, Joe, I love that you're there. I just wish we had 100 hours so I could just, we could just reverse roles here. And I could just go right at my friend Joe Kernan.

Should we play drinking affordability? Like every time he says affordability, we should drink maybe a glass of milk. I'm trying to be family friendly here. It's, there's so much, only so much to really. talk about, I did talk a little bit about Iran. President feels like Iran wants to make a deal more than he wants to make a deal, but they're afraid to say those three words that we won't develop nuclear weapons, and that's the one thing that's holding those talks back at this point. What did he have for lunch? What do you have? What do you eat? Everything else is, if I told you,

I'd have to kill you. I'm kidding. I've never do that. Thank you. Thank you. Might make you drink milk, though. Yeah, we are going to hand it right over to closing bell, everyone. We'll see you later.