Power Lunch - Stocks digest November jobs data 12/16/25

Episode Date: December 16, 2025

Crude oil prices continue to slide. Mastercard's Michelle Meyer joins with some takeaways on the consumer so far during holiday season. And should you adjust your portfolio depending on who the next Fed Chair is? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Santa Claus rally, it might be stuck in a chimney, buyers staying home, at least for now. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian with Kelly. Stock's lower right now. Markets taking a bit of a pause, but we have got some new data you have to see on one new record that is being hit today. A lot to do there, Kelly. Indeed. Plus, the good news is that it's much cheaper to fill up your gas tank lately, but what will lower or lower?

oil and gasoline prices mean for oil and gas stocks. That, of course, the big question for investors. Speaking of gas tanks, we've got more on Ford's shocking $20 billion electric car and truck disaster, the massive U-turn from Ford that we saw coming on this show or on Brian's show or everyone Brian goes two years ago. Yes, we'll get much more on that really tough Ford news ahead in this show. But let's start by talking about a new record that was made. A new report from Bank of America finds that global fund managers, it surveyed, are feeling maybe the most bullish in more than three years. We say that because their data shows that cash levels, the amount of just hard cash people have, is that a record low. Cash, just 3.3% of their client holdings.

So where might that money be going? Stocks and commodities. Holdings of those at their highest level since early 2020. Again, that's just according to one company, Bank of America. But your first guest today might agree with that. He's been saying on this show for a while to diversify beyond just big tech. So let's see what he has to say about that, what to buy, what to own next year. Joe Tannius, his chief investment strategist at Northern Trust.

And he joins us now. I know that's not you. You're not Bank of America. But I'm not surprised. Okay. Are you seeing similar types of data at Northern Trust? We are. I think there's genuinely a lot of excitement about the opportunity ahead in 2026. I mean, you can just rattle off the list. You have a meaningful amount of fiscal stimulus as a result of the one big, beautiful bill act. You have more accommodative monetary policy. There's a lot of discussion in hymns and haze about the Fed and what they're going to do. But by and large, we know that we're going to see more accommodative monetary policy. You have earnings which are expected to grow at a double digit rate, a decent clip. And you're also expecting. I can see a broadening out, if you will, so more participation.

It's not just going to be a narrow market like we saw in the earlier. Where is the wall of worry, Joe? The whole point is if everybody sees it that way, and now we have it so concerned. The fund manager survey is a classic fading sign, don't you think? So what does it tell you to see the excitement level this high? Well, I think there's a lot to be nervous about. There's a lot to be worried about. And certainly you can talk about the client questions that we've been getting.

There's a lot of anxiety about a bubble about what's happening with tech and what's with AI, a lot of this concentration. Of course, inflation, just barely, you know, touched on it. But the reality is inflation is likely to move higher, at least in the earlier part of the year. And that may certainly pour a little bit of cold water on hopes that the Fed is going to come out and cut monetary policy perhaps more aggressively than we'd like. So make no mistake, there are a lot of things to be concerned about. But I think about where we are today relative to where we were just a few months ago. And I think the risks have come down materially. It feels like the biggest, and I'm using fear, air quotes, if you're on the radio, because the biggest fear is how much money people have made the last three years, Joe.

It's insane. There's hundreds of thousands of 401k millionaires, folks. We hope you are one of them out there. And everybody that I talk to just at dinner parties, whatever it may be, is like, can this keep going, Brian? Because I've made so much money. I feel like I should sell some. Some are moving to cash preemptively. Nervous.

I'm not sure what's worse to go to cash. and miss out on continued gains or to stay in the market and look back and go, geez, I should have saw it coming. Yeah. And I think those are warranted fears and concerns that we have. They call that a good problem. It is a good problem. But nevertheless, it is a problem.

I mean, so much of what we have seen over the course of this year has been driven by this AI narrative, this AI rally. And so it's understandable that as you look ahead into the year ahead, you question whether or not it is sustainable. So I think there are reasons to be optimistic. But at the same time, I think we need to have a very balanced point of view. Yeah, I think if you just put all your money in like NVIDIA a few years ago, you've probably got a solid gold yacht right now.

But you've been saying for a while that that's going to come to an NNNVITA maybe on its first, dare I say, two-month losing streak in a long time. And it looks a little bit, Joe, like we are actually seeing a broadening out. We've said that like eight times the last three years. It's never happened. Is this time for real? I think we're finally seeing some real signs that it is, in fact, broadening out. I mean, just thinking back a few weeks ago, this whole discussion between OpenAI, Gem and I3,

what does this ultimately mean for these companies and a lot of the businesses of these companies? As you look ahead into the year into 2026, make no mistake, Brian, we still expect technology to do relatively well. I think this is a trend and a theme you're going to see play out for many, many years here. IT spending as a percentage of GDP, we expect to double over the next 10 years. So there is meaningful amount of money going into this. I think there is a nice tailwind, but I do think you're going to see more broadening out. You need to see more participation, if you will, from companies outside of just the magazine. But when you say we continue to see large cap doing the heavy lifting, does that mean you're not that excited about small caps?

Does that mean you want to stick with what's been working to some extent? I'm excited about the prospects of small cap doing better certainly than they've done over the last couple of years, right? And again, when you think about the primary driver of profits in the couple of years ahead, it has to come from earnings. I don't think you're going to see a whole lot more come from multiple expansion. But when you think about large cap, where 30% of it is technology, for example, and then you look at small cap, Russell 2000, it's roughly half of that. It's just hard for small cap to compete. Well, what about Europe and Japan? They've been red hot this year.

They've outperformed the U.S. markets. Now, that's after years of underperformance. But what happens next year? It's after years of underperformance, it's relatively low expectations in both of these economies doing relatively well. Japan in particular, there's a lot of optimism and enthusiasm around the new administration and policy moving forward. I also think when you look at valuation, here in the United States, it's very hard to make an argument that the equity markets are cheap, but when you look abroad, there's opportunity there. To the extent you believe that the U.S. dollar is likely to continue to weaken in the years ahead than I think having some exposure to these international stock. is perhaps one of the best ways to hedge.

Interesting, you said that. We're about to talk to Rick about that. What do you think is going on with the dollar? I think gradually it's going to continue to weaken. I don't know that it's necessarily going to see the same volatility that we saw this year. That a good thing, and that's in spite of an administration that claims it has strong dollar policy, but I secretly think they want weak dollar. I think you want a strong dollar in the sense that you want faith and credibility in the United States,

but at the same time, when you have a weaker dollar, let's not kid ourselves here. When you think about these large multinational companies, it simply helps them sell more abroad. So I think you're going to continue to see that moving forward. And again, with the Fed coming in, more accommodative monetary policy next year relative to other central banks, right? The Fed's a little bit behind the curve there, if you will, as it relates to easing, that may very well put some pressure on the dollar. So it sounds like to close it out, the headline for next year, according to Northern Trust, stay calm and invest on. Stay calm, invest on. We are looking for another strong year in the equity markets and risk assets.

You just need to be broadly. We have a four-year rally. That's a pretty good. This is one of the greatest runs in the last 50 years. It's not that unusual, or is it? It's not. It's not that. You know, it's funny.

We always talk about what are expectations for the earnings for the equity markets. And it's so easy and comfortable to say we're looking at something in the low single-digit range. But in reality, it's not uncommon to get double-digit returns year after year. You know, under-told story, 3,800 publicly traded companies in America used to be 8,000. When I mean used to be, I don't mean 100 years ago. I mean 15 years ago. So all this money is chasing half the amount of assets that it was before. And that's just going to put an upward pressure on it.

Imagine what could be coming when you start to get the Dow 50,000 headlines. We're getting close. And I don't know whether, again, that's a bell that people will say, I don't want anything to do with this. Do you have a hat? I have a Dow 1,000 hat, but that's a whole other story. Joe, thanks. We appreciate it for now. Thank you.

Joe Tanias. Speaking of the U.S. dollar, it is hitting its lowest level since October today. Remember, it's soared right after the election earlier. this year. But since the president actually took office, it's been on a consistent slide. It's now down 10% this year for one of its worst performances since 2017. Joe thinks it'll keep going. What does Rick think? Rick Santelli, what are you hearing? And what could the impact be on inflation and on equities? Well, I think that, you know, just in general, the last guests expressed the kind of textbook notion

that when it comes to manufacturing and exports, it's going to be a good thing. If you're an average middle class person, the weaker dollar isn't going to go as far, so you're going to feel some of the inflationary pressures a little more strongly. Having said that, I still think that there's two things going on that are giving the dollar big distortions. I still think COVID distorted the dollar. And I think when it comes to foreign exchange, nothing excites foreign exchange more than country to country trading. And we've tossed pretty much a bit of a monkey wrench in that, not that it's not going to going to work out in the end, but this kind of fits and starts on tariffs, of course, is taking

its toll as well. So, Kelly, let's start at the beginning. Let's look at the one year of the dollar index pre-COVID. And I really like this chart, because there's a couple things there. You want a steady dollar. That's a good thing, a steady dollar. But look at the lows and the highs. Basically, the highs are, you know, around 99. The lows are in the 96 and a half area. And right now, we're hovering right around 98. Now let's do something else. Let's look at a 20-year chart of a two-year note yield on top of the dollar index. And I really like this chart as well. So I guess if I'm going to answer your question and I'm going to try to remove all the politics out of it, I think global trade is definitely hurting the dollar, but as global trade fixes itself and eventually it will,

the dollar's going to be more of a steady eddy. But I do think when you look at the effects of COVID, how much money we spent and when inflation peaked in 2022. And remember, the dollar index shot up to 114 in the fall of 2022. This was all COVID related. So I think that there's a lot of moving parts here. It isn't a good thing. But I think ultimately, three to four years from now, the dollar index is going to look a lot like it did pre-COVID. Rick Sandtellie, great stuff. By the way, speaking of the president, he will be speaking. tomorrow night now at 9 p.m. Kind of a last minute. We don't know what it's about.

To the country? To the country. He's going to give an address tomorrow night at 9 p.m. This just crossed. That was my reaction. Literally my reaction. Look, you could ring a bell. This is probably too myopic about what's going on with gas prices, or it could be any number of other hot button issues. We're going to try to do more. We've got some really good people down in D.C.

Maybe they can dig this up, but that is a headline that you need to know about. All right. Coming up after the break, oil prices, headed for their worst year since 2018. We'll talk about that. And Venezuela with Dan Pickering. Maybe tomorrow night has something to do with Venezuela. We don't know. A lot of questions. Markets down a little bit. Oil's down. We're back right after this. All right. Let's stay on energy and hit oil prices. Look at that. Oil prices down 2.7 percent to 55, 20. per barrel. That, my friends, the lowest level since early of 2021. Crude oil also on track for its largest annual decline in seven years. And here's another stat from our friends at

Bespoke Investment Research. Crude oil is on pace for its fifth straight monthly decline. That is a streak we have not seen since the 1980s. There are several key factors that are helping push oil prices down. You've got OPEC Plus and its allies. boosting production after years of making cuts. In the meantime, Trump is pushing for a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Now, as a result of this or any other thing, the energy ETF XLE on track for its fourth negative day in a row.

That may not sound like much, but that is actually the longest losing streak in three months. Let's talk about that, oil, stocks, and maybe even Venezuela, and bring in Dan Pickering, his founder and CIO of Pickering. energy partners. Dan, everybody's negative. They talk about inventories, floating storage, billions of barrels. OPEC may disagree, but you can't disagree with the price. And it feels like oil may be ready to have a forehandle soon. What do you think? Yeah, Brian, good to be on the show with you. Unfortunately, under these circumstances, oil could have a forehandle. Why? Because we've got

too much of it. We're in an oversupplied market. The question on inventories are rising and rising dramatically. The question is, who's going to blink first in terms of turning off supply? Will it be U.S. shale? Will it be OPEC? Will it be some geopolitical event? But the bottom line is we have not yet found the price that will discourage supply. So price probably keeps going lower. Low 50s feels like it's in the car at high 40s, maybe. You really think so? What's it mean for the stocks? Yeah, Kelly, stocks have held in OK this year. If you look, the various subsectors anywhere down a little bit to up three or four percent, which feels like we may give up some more between here and $50. So it's the names have been okay, not great, underperform the market.

If oil keeps going lower, my guess is that energy stocks keep going lower, probably setting up a buy opportunity, but feels heavy in the near term. You know, a lot of people have said once it's 3% in the market can't really get much worse. But what do you think in this case? And it's ironic because at the same time, you have Ford abandoning its EV plans and acknowledging it needs some kind of hybrid offering in that market. So it seems like the lower that price goes or stays, the less incentive there is to buy something like a Tesla. Whose stock is basically back in an all-time high, by the way? Yeah, I mean, we don't have a demand problem for oil right now.

Demand looks pretty good. The issue is, as Brian mentioned, as we came in, OPEC plus adding supply, U.S. productions at record levels, we've got a supply problem. So my expectation is cheap gasoline will continue to drive good demand. The question is just how do we get rid of these excess barrels? And I think, unfortunately, it's going to take price. And if it takes price, that's probably not great for the stocks. I want to ask a follow-up question, Dan, on Venezuela. The New York Times out today with a big story.

It's titled, quote, Venezuela's oil is a focus of Trump's campaign against Maduro, and it references the country's oil is the reason for that pressure. It does leave out that millions of Venezuelans are lividling crippling poverty, but I'll move on. You also just recently commented on a tweet of mine, Dan, that the heat is being turned up on Maduro and that any new regime will likely get Western oil companies to help boost production. Do you think this will really happen? Kyle Bass, yesterday does. He thinks we may actually invade. Venezuela, and how much do you think that Venezuelan oil production could actually go up, maybe to the benefit of a company like Chevron, if there is some kind of regime change? Yeah, Brian, there's regime change in Venezuela. Remember, they peaked at over 3 million barrels a day back in the late 90s. They've been, you know, they're right around 800,000 to a million

barrels a day today. So the reserves and resource are there. It's being poorly managed and sanctioned. And so I think if you changed the regime, you would change the story on oil. You'd probably bring in Western companies. They'd put capital in place. And in two or three years, my expectation would be that production could be up 50% or more. Is that trumps in the goal? I think energy is probably a secondary to the regime change and the global geopolitical implications. But at the end of the day, it's a secondary benefit of potentially more supply on the market in a few years.

which should hold down gasoline prices, which all voters love. Yeah, you know, it's actually quite crazy to watch, you know, where the price action is. Dan, quickly on the Nat gas front, again, living up to its widowmaker reputation, just as we had crossed above $5, we're pretty much back below four. Is this just the typical volatility we should expect, or do you think there's still money to be made in this trade? Yeah, natural gas looks quite good from a setup perspective to us.

Yes, we were above five. it was cold, the weather forecast, weather always plays an impact in natural gas. But the other impact is LNG, and that demand growth in 2026 looks quite good. So we're going to have a lot of volatility. $5 gas, $3.75 gas. But my expectation is you take the over on gas for 2026. Taking the over on gas for 2026, but maybe oil in the $40 range soon. Seems to be headed that way. Dan Pickering, really appreciate you coming on. As always, Dan, have a great. date. Thanks, guys. All right. Coming up, on deck, how you should play the two Kevin's scenario. We'll explain what that means. Next. The Federal Reserve's independence is really, really important,

and the voices of the other people at the FOMC, they're important too. And so the way you've got to drive interest rate movements is with consensus based on. the facts and the data. That was National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, showing support for an independent federal reserve. Of course, he's considered to be the leading contender for the job to take over for Powell. President Trump says former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is one of his favorites after an interview last week.

That said, Hassett is now once again leading the race for the top job, according to CalShay, 56% odds. And with the Fed facing a critical leadership transition, our next guest is laying out investing playbooks for the two frontrunners. Dom Chu has a look at that in our market navigator. Dom? All right, so Kelly, Brian, if you take a look and you turn back to the topic of who's going to lead the Fed and what it could mean for your portfolio,

that's what our next guest is here to tell you about. His trading advice, depending on who the president picks as the next Federal Reserve chair. Joining us now is Jan Szilagi, the CEO and co-founder of Reflexivity, a market's AI-driven platform. And, Jan, if we talk about the two Kevin's, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, are there different playbooks that you have for either one of them? maybe let's start with what happens if, hypothetically, Kevin Hassett is the pick for the next Fed chair.

Yeah, perfect. Hi, I could see you again. So the idea here is, and you know, we've heavily leaned on our platform to kind of go through the odds, calculate the odds, and then come out with the best positioning advice. Under Kevin Hassett, the best position probably is the play on economic growth, which is usually the small caps. So if you get immediate rate relief, which for small caps means, you know, 60% floating rate debt versus 30% for large caps and higher expected growth, that is usually the sector that should outperform. And the recent momentum that we're seeing that is already suggesting that markets clearly are positioning for that possibility. All right. But we also found out that the president himself says that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is also very much in the mix and near the top of that list as well. So what is the playbook for a hypothetical Kevin Warsh Fed chairmanship? Yeah, so actually interestingly, reflexivity based on a number of different sources that estimate the probability that actually puts Kevin Warsh now in the frontrunner seat.

And so under that scenario, you would actually prefer financial sector stocks. So financial sector ETF, XLF. And the reason being that he is a steady pair of hands, he had been at the Fed before, obviously knows very well what he is doing and has also seen. as having a degree of market trust already and probably a degree of moderation in terms of where this would go. And so the goal here would be to see the curve steepen and therefore the banks reprise. All right. And then there's a hypothetical other scenario amongst others, right, that says maybe either of them could get it, but you don't know which one you can go with

because the odds are maybe tilting one way or the other. Is there a playbook to be had there if you are unsure of what's going to happen? Yeah. So if you really can't decide or if you're unwilling to basically place the bet on either side, because from time to time really does seem like a coin toss, then the Vanguard dividend appreciation ETF, VIG, is probably the one for you. Because under an environment of lower rates, which is really both scenarios, companies that are able to continue to maintain dividends are usually those that are pricing power. They obviously should do well because of the higher yields in an environment where yields are overall coming down. And there's also quite a lot of diversification in that sector.

So it includes financials, health care, tech, consumer staples, and so on. So it's a lower volatility, obviously lower expected reward. But you would probably do well and you should do well under both scenarios. All right. Interesting that AI at Reflexivity is what's putting those picks together. Jan Salagi, co-founder of Reflexivity. Thank you very much for that in the Fed Playbook. Kelly, Brian.

I'll send things back over to you guys. appreciate it very much. Up next, we're checking on the consumer, spending at pretty solid levels so far this holiday season, perhaps surprisingly. Take a look at some of these retailers over the past month, Abercrombie up 67%. Warby 53, American Eagles, St. Victoria's Secret Urban Outfitters, this is like what my mall experience was like 15 years ago. Anyway, a spotlight on Target. If it finishes higher today, this will be its 10th positive session in a row and its longest win streak since 2018. Michelle Meyer, MasterCard, Chief Economist is with us on the other side of the break to talk all things, consumer.

Welcome back. All right. What is going on with the U.S. consumer right now? We just learned the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November. That's the highest level in more than four years as that long-delayed government report shows the economy added to 64,000. jobs added to fresh data talking about retail sales being kind of flattish to decelerating and questions are mounting about how resilient consumer spending really is. Michelle Meyer can answer all of this for us. She joins us from MasterCard to break down these trends. First of all, great to see you. Thank you for coming in. We are getting more positive micro data points on spending. We talked about those stocks that are doing quite well the past month. How would you describe it? I think the

consumer is still engaged. The consumers here are the consumer spending and we are seeing in a day-to-day basis in terms of the actual spend trend. So when we look at Black Friday, a critical moment for the holiday shopping season, retail sales ex-autos were up 4.1%. Driven by double-digit growth in e-commerce, big part of the story, but in store also saw activity. And we continue to monitor this season. We're still running right about 4% or so in terms of spending. So you have a consumer that's there. If we had zero inflation, I'd be like, great, 4% spending sounds, you know, but if you have, I don't know what inflation is in the consumer these days with tariffs, two, three, four, something in that world. So I guess I'm trying to get at is

how much of this is real? And what do you think is going to happen as we get into the first quarter? We're hearing so much talk about these tax refunds that are coming. If you don't know now people, apparently you're going to get a nice check. But the companies know that too and might raise some prices. So how's that going to pan out? So I think in general, the pass-through of tariffs and higher costs to the consumer has been slow. And it's going to take time. And you're absolutely right. It's probably not over because this is an adjustment process of recalibration that companies have to make and consumers have to figure out whether or not they're willing to tolerate. But if you look at the inflation that we have so far, and it's delayed,

it looks like the holiday basket, at least our measure of the holiday basket, inflation's running just about 2% or so. So it's a little bit above where it was last year when we had a lot of deflation. But this is not an environment of heightened inflation. Are you surprised by that? there were so many calls at very high levels, very smart economists, and they may end up being right about tariffs are going to spike prices and we're all doomed. Like a lot of forecasts the last four or five years, those have been rendered, shall we say, wrong. Wrong. Yeah. Yeah. Are you surprised? So I think there's a few things that happened. One is the economy has proven to be so much more dynamic and so much more flexible. And this has happened over the last several years. It's not just

in the face of tariffs. We've seen it since the pandemic, this adjustment. And in the face of that, companies stockpiled in advance. We saw a lot more inventory builds, a big increase in imports in Q1 that was reversed in Q2. That helped in terms of mitigating some of the price adjustments. Supply chains, the extent that it was possible, seemed to shift. And remember, prices are not even across all products, and they're not even across all countries. So there's a certain amount of choices that presumably companies are making and consumers are making to try to avoid some of the price increases. Right. No, I agree. It's kind of been, it ends with a whimper and not a bang, at least so far this year. I know you look at the data. We talk about consumer. I know that's

your hat now, but I know you look at the data more broadly. What do you think is going on with the labor market? So I see very clearly an environment where churn in the workforce is lower. It's hard not to see that across a variety of different statistics. I think the key question is why. Why have we seen the slowdown in the hiring rate? And I think presumably part of it has to do with uncertainty, the uncertainty around how the changes in trade and the global realignment of trade will impact the workforce. So companies are trying to be a little bit more cautious in terms of how they allocate their dollars towards the workforce.

I would imagine some uncertainty around AI as well, right, in a sense of do you invest in the technology, do you invest in the AI, or do you invest in your workforce, and what kind of workforce do you need? But I think a lot of those questions will be answered over time, and that will allow companies to become more strategic in terms of how they hire. And you are not seeing an increase in firing. That is critical. That's a good sign.

The Federal Reserve cut rates again last week, as I'm sure you're aware. I heard. You know what happened? Hopefully here on Power Lunch, 2B.M. Eastern. Bond rates have gone, bond yields have gone up. Yeah. Mortgage rates have stayed flat. They may even go up.

We've had a couple of rate cuts and mortgage rates aren't budging. Comment on that. And then also, how important is borrowing cost to the American consumer who is largely addicted to credit. Yeah. We like to borrow money in this country. We buy cars, we buy homes, buy now, pay later. Yeah.

So, I mean, I think, obviously, broad financial conditions matter a great deal. And remember, the Federal Reserve is not just impacting the level of interest rates. They're impacting financial conditions across the board, which all together transmit into the economy. So, yes, the curve is a bit steeper. You know, you've seen the short end respond, of course, the Fed funds rate. the long end is proving a little bit sticky because of concerns over inflation or be concerns over a variety of different factors related to debt. But obviously, this has been a good year for household balance sheets. And that matters for consumers as they're thinking about realizing wealth effects and their enthusiasm about spending.

I thought I read the other day, and I might have this slightly off as from Wells Fargo, that we now have more stock market wealth than housing wealth. And that stock market wealth is more and more translating into not just kind of the dollar spent in the economy, but tax revenues as well. well. So what happens with the market is hugely impactful from here? Yeah, the market is not the economy, but there's a strong link between the two in terms of financial wealth creation impacting consumer and business investment and consumer and business investment, therefore impacting how markets perform. Right. It all works until it doesn't, I guess, is how we describe it. Michelle, really appreciate it. Good to see it today. Great to see. We do have some breaking news out of Washington right now. It has to do with a House vote around data centers. Emily Wilkins, what's

going on. Hey, Brian, will the House just advance a wide-ranging bill on energy and permitting, but that will include speeding up the process for data centers, not only to be built, but for transmission and power lines that will fuel them to be put up as well. Now, there was a little bit of drama around this vote. Yet a couple Republicans who were hesitant, but eventually all of them got on board, and we expect the bill to pass with a bipartisan support a little bit later in the week. And this is something that you saw Micron, you saw Open AI, you saw Microsoft, all push for the passage of this bill because they said that it will help them with the creation of data centers as well as powering data centers. I spoke with the sponsor of the bill, Bruce Westerman, and he said that ultimately this should help bring energy costs down in areas with data centers in them because of an energy boom that they're hoping comes if they're able to speed up the permitting process.

And a lot of this again, it goes to those environmental reviews. They are limiting the time that the reviews can take place and that any legal challenges can. occur. So it's now on track to clear the House and we'll have to see we know that there is a willingness to get this done in the Senate, but that we'll have to wait until next year. Guys? Emily Wilkins covering the

Speed Act as it is known, Emily. Thank you very much. Meantam's Ked up with a CNBC news update. Brian, President Trump announcing this afternoon he plans to address to the nation at 9 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night. He did not say

what topics he plans to talk about, but says the address will come live from the White House. He wrote in a post on true social. It has been a great year for our country and the best is yet to come. Trump administration threatened countermeasures today following the European Union's $140 million fine on Elon Musk's X. The Office of the U.S. trade representatives said it could leverage fees or restrictions on some of the EU's largest service providers that it says have enjoyed expansive market access, including Spotify, Accenture, and D.H.L. And President Trump told the New York Post today he has full faith in his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, following

the Vanity Fair report, where she suggested he has an alcoholic's personality. In an interview with the Post, the president said he was not offended by the word choice and described his personality as addictive and possessive. Wiles, meanwhile, referred to the Vanity Fair article as a hit piece. Kelly? Yeah, she came out quite vociferously against it. Bertha, thanks very much, Bertha Coombs. All right, coming up, the lag of the mag seven will explain.

Plus, Instagram is going to soon be available on your television. We'll talk more about that and more. We got a lot to do. You're watching Power Lunch. Stick around. All right, you saw the Dow sell off, accelerating a little bit down about 340 points. All right, more on today's markets at a minute, but we got time now for a power check. And today, we are looking at a few of the magnificent seven names beginning with meta. Look at meta today. It is higher.

There is an announcement that the company is going to push its. Instagram onto TV via the Amazon Fire TV streaming device. Honestly, didn't even know that existed. A move is seen as a way for Instagram to become a major video platform beyond smartphones, growing the usage on the growing usage of YouTube and TikTok and also shows like this one. You know, you should check out, CNBC and CBC Plus. Let's talk more about meta and some of these other moves. Joining us now on set is our friend Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence,

capital management, meta among his top holdings. Jokes about shows aside, this would seem to be a relatively big deal for meta. I think it is because now you're able to take what they do and you know, they've got meta has 3.4 billion people, half the world's population, almost 40% anyway, are seeing it. And now you can go to larger format television, which makes it easier for people to use. It's more natural for individuals. You're not sticking, looking at your phone all the time, and it now moves it from the, you know, handholding to householding. And that's going to be really important. So we think that it's a big move for meta.

It's going to increase their ability to even go deeper into homes and individuals. Yeah, I know we're getting old, but it's nicer to watch something on a 75-inch flat panel than on your phone. We all can admit that to each other. All right, Amazon. Bigger's better. That's it. Listen, we're getting older.

You want to stare at a giant screen, not your phone. If you can put it up there, why not? Let's talk about Amazon. Not had a great year. Now, they seem to be taking over the world and everything else. What do we make of the stock? Well, I think the stock's got room to run here. And the reason why, one, it's lagged behind most of the rest of the MAG 7.

But we're going in the holiday season, four out of every $10 that's going to be spent online are going to go through an Amazon platform. They're absolutely dominant in that space. And so we think that it's only an increasing moment for. Amazon and we think that, you know, now they're number two to Walmart and total sales in fourth quarter of 2024. They beat Walmart for the first time. So I think that you're just seeing more depth than that platform. And that's going to be important. Pouring money into advertising right now so that maybe they're trying to kind of achieve those milestones. I know

with Meta and Amazon, we're about to talk about Apple, it seems like you're not afraid of what some would lump this all together is the AI trade. Is that right? I mean, quickly before I ask you about that. Absolutely not. I mean, this is this isn't the dot-com com thing. These companies have real earnings. These companies have long-term futures. These are dominant in consumer behavior in the United States and really the world over. So this isn't a bubble. This is an advancement. Okay. So that brings us to Apple, which, I mean, honestly, has struggled with its AI strategy, but the stock has still done pretty well. It was at all-time highs pretty recently. It's seen a bunch of executive departures, though. This is your firm's top holding.

Yes, it is. How do you feel about 2026? We like it. And part of the reason why is what What people miss in part of the Apple story is that the iPhone 17 is now, they're scheduled to now for the first time in 14 years sell more units than Samsung. They make the greatest profit margins in the iPhone business, but now you have continued recycle, continued buying more units than Samsung globally all over. So I think that you're continuing to see this broadening out of Apple's appeal and it's dominant and it's recurring and they're going to catch. Have you upgraded your iPhone software because they do give, on the new one they give you the opportunity? to test out Siri intelligence. Oh, I didn't get that. I declined it.

But the point is, is they're in everybody's hand. They are. They're in everybody's hand. Once they get it, you're going to be addicted to it. And that's what happens. They changed their icons, too. They kind of went back to a retro look. Is this the liquid glass of it? Yes.

You know, my feelings on it. It's hard to read. It's hard to read. I can't get the text off the screen. Not bothering Dryden, though. Not at all. coming in. We state your bullishness on a trade. Many are questions for 2026, Dryden Pence, Pence Capital Management. Coming up, Ford's almost $20 billion right down and what it means

for the automakers future. We have Phil LeBeau on the other side to break down this jaw-dropping decision. It is the end of the road for Ford's ill-fated electric effort. 150 pickup truck known as the lightning. Ford saying that lightning sales, well, new cars will be over. Ford also was going to take a monster $19.5 billion charge because of costs associated with the EV business. That's on top of billions. It's already taken in charges. Now Ford, it will still make some electric vehicles, including a planned lower priced pickup truck at a couple of years. But this write-off, along with those previously announced losses from EVs, is

about the same as roughly half of Ford's market cap. It's, of course, a topic we've been talking about for years on this show and others. Let's get more now on this news. Phila Bow, who had an interview earlier today with the CEO of Ford, obviously a big number. What is the adjustment internally going to be? What did Jim Farley tell you about where Ford goes from here? Well, they're pivoting, pivoting away from the current strategy to one that includes, building more hybrids, building lower priced smaller electric vehicles in the future, not getting out of the EV game altogether, and also building extended range electric vehicles. That's what the lightning will become, Brian.

So the name F-150 Lightning, it's going to remain with the extended range EV pickup truck that that will be the future of the lightning when they start building that. And that's not a surprise. We saw Ram make this decision earlier. around the world, you hear more and more people saying that's really one of the options that people should consider because the extended range electric vehicle, as you know, it allows you to drive electric. When you're getting low on the battery supply, you have an onboard generator, gasoline powered, it then kicks in, fills up the, it provides energy to the battery. The battery

then powers the vehicle. And there's your extended range there. And that's what you're going to from Ford as they shift their production here in the United States over the next couple of years. Do we know what, if anything, this might mean for General Motors? I know you might have to speculate here, Phil, but they've got a big EV business. In some ways, the platform is larger than Ford. That stock has done great. Is this going to trickle over into GM or is this more of a Ford specific thing? This is more Ford specific, but they do watch each other. I mean, if you look at these two automakers, they keep an eye on each other in terms of who is zinging when the other one is zagging and is the other one making a move that perhaps we should replicate. I think what you're

going to see from General Motors is that most of their moves they have already announced. Now, I do think you're probably going to see more EV charges in the future from General Motors. I think Ford basically said, that's it. $19.5 billion. That's what we expect as we write down the EV business. I think General Motors has been much more. judicious as it tries to position itself to continue building electric vehicles, though they've already scaled back their plans dramatically. And I think that continues as we move into 26. Yeah, you wonder about Ford. And Farley, making a big pivot here, there are some people that are saying, what might this mean for the CEO's job?

I think he's okay. Right now, I think he's okay. He has moved as quickly as I think many people did not expect. He's moved quicker than I think many people did not expect earlier this year. And look, him and his team were smart when they realized that they were building hybrids. GM is not building hybrids, though that will start to change here. And there was demand for hybrids. And Ford has been ramping up hybrid production. That was a Jim Farley move. So it's not like he's sitting still and saying, gee, why isn't the market where it's supposed to be? He realizes the field has changed. And with the Trump administration, this is what they're going to have to do. Now, who knows what happens with the next presidential election, if Ford may have to pivot again in some other way.

But this is the auto industry now here in the United States, Brian. Are they talking about the political pressure? These companies run massive, under massive political pressure, right? I was in Detroit when the former president did the fake walk the picket line. I was there. It was seven minutes. Okay, I know because I saw it with my own eyes. So I'm just curious, how much this political pressure? It's not political pressure as much as it is changing, adjusting to the policies out of the White House. You've got to do it. Well, we're not going back to the days of EV incentives. So if you're Ford, you read the landscape and you say, okay, how do we play this? Philibault and a big story around Ford. Stock not taking too much of a hit, but $20 billion, $19.5 billion,

I'll write off a big story. All right. Speaking of electric, coming up is your electric bill set to rise? We'll talk about why it might be next.