Power Lunch - Stocks rally despite soft ADP report 9/4/25

Episode Date: September 4, 2025

Broadcom shares pop in the lead-up to its much-anticipated earnings after the bell. NBC Sports' Mike Tirico gives his thoughts ahead of the NFL season kickoff.  And what should you do to make sure you are maximizing your 401(k)? Power Lunch has it all here Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are up as the September swoon hides, at least for now. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan. Kelly is off. It is the economy and jobs. One day ahead of the August payroll number, another seemingly bad sign for the job market, ADP saying fewer jobs added than expected, but here's the rub. Could a slowing economy help the market by lowering borrowing costs? Seems to be today. We'll talk about that. Plus, speaking of jobs, the massive oil company laying off thousands. The big numbers that are set to come in tonight, and the great Mike Tariko is here on the football season and what he expects not only tonight in Philadelphia, but for the rest of the year, that's going to be a lot of fun. Can't wait for that, all that ahead, but let us start

on this Thursday with your money, because another read on jobs coming in ice cold. That ahead of tomorrow's release the monthly payroll number, and an agency overseeing it, by the way, that has a new leader after President Trump fired the former head of the BLS. This could all impact the Federal Reserve and thus impact your money. So let's talk about it. Joining us, Larry Adam, he is Chief Investment Officer of Raymond James. Larry, job number, not good, market, good. We're at session highs.

More records across the board? Are you surprised? I am a little bit surprised that the market continues to move higher. I mean, we just had a fantastic summer time period where we were up 12 percent. That was the third strongest summer that we've had in a long time. And I'm always of the belief that good news is good news and bad news is bad news. And right now, I do think that tomorrow, I wouldn't overstate tomorrow's importance because, as you just mentioned, I think a composite of all this economic data does point to the fact that the employment conditions are weakening,

whether that's the beige book, the ISMs that have come out, the ADP, jolts, all of them are pointing to a weaker number. tomorrow. Yeah, the beige book, as we pointed out yesterday, higher number of references, the tariffs and inflation than the previous beige book. The ADP number was weak. Probably tomorrow, we'll see what happens. We've got to, by the way, a new head of the BLS. And you don't want to go into the politics of it, Larry.

But whichever, I'll venture to guess this, whichever way that number comes in, one side or the other of the political spectrum is going to discount it. How will the market react? I think you bring up a good point because what's really been driving the market has been revisions. And I think tomorrow, when you look at those revisions, just think about this. If we have anything like we had last time, you're talking about the possibility that May and June numbers could actually go negative. And I think that that's one of the tail risk of tomorrow's numbers that if you do see negative numbers, I think that could spring forward some of the rate cuts that the Fed could potentially be looking to do in the near term here. The other thing I'd mention is that, you know, when we thought to our economists, the fact is that revisions are nothing unusual.

You know, everybody points to the fact that these surveys are a lot lighter with the first tranche of responses that come in. And usually that's true. It's usually around 60 percent. But by the second or third response, it's usually up to like 90, 95 percent. And one of the reasons why we think that occurs, and one of our expectations, at least mine is, is that oftentimes if you're hiring somebody, you kind of report that, right? If you haven't really hired anybody or if you've laid people off, you tend to be a little late to respond. And I think that's why you've seen some of these downed revisions here of late when you get the second and third revisions. I think it's an excellent point, and it's an important point. Let me ask a different point. Does the jobs number even matter that much?

I mean, I think it should. But with the changes at the top, all the revisions, the change in methodologies, a lot of people not just not answering landline phones anymore. employers sort of delaying or not at all answering some of these questions, Larry, how much are you and your team actually even looking at the data? Look, unless it's a tremendously outsized number tomorrow, and what I mean by that, the consensus is at $75,000, unless we get a blowout number of North O'150 or well below 50, I don't think it's going to be a market-moving event. I think the bigger story is going to be next week when we get the inflation numbers. Because if you look at the dual mandate, I think it's a lot of

it's clear that the economy is slowing, particularly when it comes to employment. Next week, when we get those inflation numbers, from our economics view, we think that that's really the first sign you're really going to start to see these price increases starting to flow through to the data. And if that's the case, that'll just make the Fed's job a lot more challenging going forward. Yeah, what if we get a blowout number tomorrow? Let's say it is above 150,000, as you just mentioned. Well, are all bets off then on Fed rate cuts in two weeks? No, I don't think it'll be off for September, but I think if you get 150,000 plus tomorrow, I think then you start to throw some uncertainty about October and then December, because I think that Dye has pretty much been

cast for this particular meeting, particularly with a lot of the Fed governors out there. You know, even today, Williams talking about the fact that it looks like they're going to cut, but I do think given some more time, it would cast some doubt on those cuts later in the future. Right. Anything specifically with the stock market besides jobs, besides the Fed that you are watching the most closely right now, Larry? Well, there's, I mean, there's so many headlines out there that we end up trying to dial back a lot of them, right? You know, a lot of people talk about it. You can't, you can't pay attention to everything. No, agreed. And look, again, with things with, with Governor Cook, right? We talk about the fact that, you know, that's a lot more headlines.

the reality is that the Fed is going to probably cut rates. That die has already been cast, and she was already considered a doveish participant, right, from her policy perspective. So I don't think that that's a big thing for the market. And I think one of the things that the market is learning this year, and that is to not to overreact initially to policy initiatives. And what I mean by that, if you think about it, this year,

there have been a lot of missteps by the market, right? Tariffs are bad for the economy. They're bad for the market. Well, that hasn't happened. Depertations are going to be bad because it's going to lead to wage pressures moving higher. Well, again, that didn't happen. The passing of the OBB is going to lead to a spike in interest rates. That hasn't happened.

So I think when it comes to Cook and what the Fed is doing and Fed independence, I think the market's in a wait and see mode here to ultimately see what's important and how are the fundamentals, meaning the economy and earnings actually doing. Yeah. And maybe none of the stuff you mentioned has anything to do with A. because AI and energy and data centers, they've been driving everything. Maybe AI, Larry, is the new jobs market when it comes to market data. Larry Adam, Raymond James, appreciate it. Larry, thank you. Thank you. All right.

From stocks to bonds, the credit market, a 10-year yield falling to its lowest level since April as additional evidence of labor market softness. We just talked about boosts expectations for some kind of Federal Reserve rate cut this month, maybe more than one. We'll see. Rick Santelli joining us out the bond report and the expectations in the bond market with. Rick. You know, the bond market's whisper number is a hundred thousand. Now, if we see 100,000 or more, I believe that the market's going to consider that as a bit of a pushback against last month's minus 258,000 revision. And that's really what it's all about. Now, if you look at four-year charted non-farm payrolls, you can clearly see the pattern

there is lower, and the last part of the chart is the lowest part on the chart. So if the Fed's looking at that, I understand why they're concerned about the labor market, but it really is about that minus 258. We all know the numbers aren't totally accurate, but that's all we have to work with. So whether we reject or push the possibility that last month's big takeback was actually happening, that's going to define whether in my opinion, we have 25, maybe 50. If we get anything, in my opinion, less than 50,000, I think you're going to see the percentages move higher

for a 50 basis point cut. Now, if you look at Jolts, it's a little different picture on the four-year chart. Yes, it doesn't look terrific, but it's mostly sideways and there are lower points than our current reading. Now, if you look at two in 10-year, and this is important, all these charts that you're going to see now are right before the big, ugly non-farm payroll last month.

And you can see how we had such a huge drop. In the two-year, we're at 396. And a 10-year, we're at 438. So since that report, mostly sideways to slightly lower. And the dollar index, our last report was before that hit. It was the last time we flirted with that big psychological level of 100. So Tamal's report is really huge. And don't take the notion that the market's going to ignore it because they're inaccurate.

That's the only thing on the table. and they are going to pay very close attention. Brian, back to you. All right, like to hear it. Well said. That's tomorrow morning, 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. By the way, moments ago, the CEO of Microsoft, Sotanadella, leaving the White House. There's video, him walking down the street, likely maybe to get into a car. He was there for First Lady Melania Trump's event on AI education. Microsoft stock up a little bit today, not on a record high. It was a couple days ago, but up about four-tenths of white.

All right. Coming up, speaking of jobs, the big job cuts that just hit the oil patch, we'll give you the name and the news ahead. Plus, it is football and it's back. NBC's Mike Tarico, will join us live about what to expect tonight in Philly and also maybe his hot take on the entire season ahead. Stick around. It is the news that rocked part of the oil industry. Conoco Phillips saying it will lay off as much as a quarter of its workforce. One in four jobs. could go away. Comes after Conoco Phillips agreed to buy Marathon Petroleum. They want to cut some duplicate rolls. It's also because the price of production is going up. Now, despite that, ConocoPhillips remains one of Leo Mariani's top picks in the oil patch. He's a senior energy research analyst at Roth, and he joins us now.

Leo, thanks for joining us. I mean, these headlines, we suspected job cuts were coming. Conoco talked in January about job cuts. These were, I think, larger than at least I expected. what about you and does it change the way you view the company? Yeah, so I look, I think to some extent, some of the job cuts should have been anticipated on their second quarter earnings call in early August. They highlighted a plan to cut about a billion dollars of costs from the business.

And this is going to be spread out over several areas. And GNA was one of those areas. So certainly I expected to see some cuts coming from the company. But look, I think you're correct that the 25% number certainly jumps out at you and the magnitude was probably a little higher than I expected here. Well, my first take was, is this some kind of a read into what Ryan Lance and his team there see with the oil and gas market? Do they see continued lower prices so they've got to get ahead of it by lowering costs? What do you think? I think that certainly could be part of it, but I think

one of the other key aspects of this is that, look, a lot of companies are really starting to embrace technology across the sector. And a lot of this is sort of process-driven AI type of initiatives. And I think a lot of these companies realize that they can get away with less staff to still execute their plans over time. So I think it's a combination of sort of the lower price environment that we're in, which is always a good time to sharpen the pencil and cut costs, as well as the fact, I think new technologies allowing them to do more or less going forward. Yeah, and they certainly are trying. It's not Conical, Philip's not the only name you like. I want to talk about two other names, Leo, that you like,

that don't get very much attention at all. One of them is California Resources Corporation. I got news for all my friends on the West Coast. California still produces oil. This company, very carbon intensive. I met the CEO last year, or they're trying to eliminate carbon. The CEO, as a kid, used to walk over from Mexico to go to school in the United States, hardworking guy. This is a company that flies under the radar for most investors, but not you. What do you see in it? Yeah, look, so you're absolutely right. Clearly a smaller cap company out there in the energy sector. But if you look at, the stock's actually done quite well and what's been a very tough energy tape here in 2025. So I think you hit some of the points already,

but this company is a significant oil producer and natural gas producer in the state of California. They are trying to pivot to get into other businesses, which include carbon capture. They're looking to be the first company that is able to sequester carbon underground, and they expect to be doing that early next year. They also own a power plant, and they're attempting to co-locate some data centers on that in the state. And they also have significant real estate value. They're going to unlock a longer term. So I think this is an interesting company because it certainly is an oil play, but you have some other businesses as well that can also create significant value over time. and then additionally, there's a sort of a movement in the California legislature for some oil and gas permitting reform that could really open up the state to more drilling over the next several years.

Yeah, it's amazing. We got to go. We showed some of your picks. Leo, I talked to the CEO last year and I said, how do you operate in California? He said, listen, it's tougher, but they realize they will need oil and they will need gas. They can't have 10 to argon gasoline because ultimately some of these politicians, I suspect, want to get reelected. We'll see California resources. is up a little bit today. Leo Mariani, Roth Capital, really appreciate it, Leo. Thank you. All right. Up next, we're going to help you try to sidestep what could be the minefield that is historically the September stock market. All right, welcome back. We all know that September has a reputation for being a bit of a rocky month on Wall Street. Going back decades, September tends to be the worst month of the year. And this year may be no different, at least as far as nerves go, because you've got an upcoming Fed meeting on the 7th.5th. You got a looming deadline to try to avoid another government shutdown.

You got to fight over tariffs. You got to fight over the Fed itself. And more. And all this means it could be a year for the record books. So what can you do to stay calm and invest on? Joining us now, Christina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist, the Man Group, the world's biggest publicly traded hedge fund. Christina, great to have you back on.

Good to see a market navigator. Listen, there's always uncertainty in the market. if there was certain, maybe nobody would invest because there'd be no return. But how do we get through this period without losing our marbles? Well, I think it's important for investors to recognize that September can often be fraught with peril, especially this year. We have the potential for a government shutdown at the end of this month. We also have challenges to Fed independence. And we also have the potential for some earnings warnings.

the consumer is coming under increasing pressure. So I think with that as the backdrop, investors should look at their portfolios and say, am I over-exposed, for example, to U.S. equities? They perform so well for so long. So it could be a matter of hedging strategies or it could just be taking some profits and moving into equities outside the U.S.

that have lower valuations. In particular, I would point to European equities and Chinese equities. Those economies are benefiting from increased fiscal stimulus. That should be a tailwind for them. Well, Europe has done better than the United States this year. Almost every stock market has outperformed us, but over the last three years, certainly is not.

So you still believe that despite the gains on the screen, the valuations are good enough that you'd be interested in some of these markets. The valuations absolutely are attractive, relative. to what we're seeing in the United States. And you have that added benefit of a fiscal stimulus tailwind. You've got Europe agreeing to meet a 5% GDP level in terms of defense spending within the next decade. And Germany is actually, they're anticipating they'll get there by 2029.

So we're seeing a ramp up in defense spending and defense-adjacent spending, including infrastructure. That should be very powerful in Europe. We have a nice segment coming up next with Sharon Epperson about how well many people have done in their retirement accounts. But a lot of people, they don't want to sell those accounts or they'll get buried in taxes, by the way. So what are some of the hedging strategies people can do? They're sitting on paper gains. They don't want to sell, but they are nervous about the market ahead.

So I think utilizing options is in a really attractive way to maintain one's exposure but protect against potential losses. I also think just adding exposure to gold, that has historically offered some geopolitical risk protection. What we can see is an environment in which almost everything goes down, but gold can go up, especially if there is just a high level of policy uncertainty and geopolitical crises. Christina Hooper, we're going to say goodbye, but I'll tell you this much. If you like gold, wait to you hear our RBI, random but interesting. coming up later on in the program. As a gold, I think you're going to like this one

because it has to do with gold. Christina Hooper, thank you very much. All right. Coming up, the big, Broadcom earnings. They're out in a few hours. The stock has been hot. So what is key for you tonight? Christina P. will lay it out.

Plus, we just talked about it. The number of 401K millionaires hitting a record. And if you want to join that exclusive club yourself, Sharon Epperson as a strategy and some savings for you. Stick around. Broadcom earnings. They are out tonight. The stock has been hot as the trade on AI pops. Shares of Broadcom, by the way, have doubled over the last year. And don't tell anybody. But Broadcom has actually made investors more money this year than NVIDIA. So what to watch for tonight? Christina P has more on that. Christina.

I think you highlight a really good point that this stock is heavily owned. It's been run up for quite some time, as we saw with NVIDIA. So there's some concern that post earnings tomorrow, that you might actually see the stock falls and profit taking. The key thing to focus on is AI revenues. We're expecting non-AI sales to be relatively flattish. The number, the by-side estimates that a lot of people are talking about is $5.3 billion for the quarter. You know, often you have to hit these buy-side numbers to actually see the stock go up. If it doesn't, then it falls. And the other thing, too, is what we'll get on the call, should they update that, is the market overall for custom chips. So keep in mind, Brockham makes chips for wireless. networking, cable, all that, but they're really focused, too, on custom AI chips for the likes of, let's say, Google.

And so they had previously said that that market was anywhere between $60 and $90 billion by 2027. I'm sure if on the call, Hawkton does update that number, you could see the stock go up. So, again, a lot revolving around the AI trade. But Brian, Marvell is a major competitor for Broadcom. And Marvell, you saw with their CEO saying that demand has been lumpy and you saw the stock sell off the next day. So there's a, I guess, a lot of caution around these AI trades right now. Yeah, in fact, there's a story on CBC.com that in vitale, Nvidia, retail, I just combine Nvidia and retail into one word. Why not?

Invidia retail buyers are getting exhausted. Data from JP Morgan Chase shows that while retail traders were net buyers of the AI darling, recently, daily purchases on Nvidia have now been falling. Is that allowed? Is that legal? Can we not own or buy Nvidia, Christina? Christina? Are we allowed to take vacation? Are we allowed to take a step back? In the city's report today, they actually said that they believe the stock is taking a breather before their next catalyst, which is GTC in D.C. at the end of October. They believe that that'll be another big swing for the stock upwards. In regards to the J.P. Morgan note you're

talking about, so on August 28th, you had retail traders by $44 million worth of Nvidia's shares. that number dropped to 75 million yesterday. Yesterday, who was, we were working, but how many people were working? Perhaps, you know, the long weekend holiday did play a role. But overall, the thesis for Nvidia still seems in play. Reuters put out a report saying that Chinese companies like Alibaba, Tencent still want to get their hands on hopper chips,

still want to get their hands, hopefully in the next iteration of Blackwell, the B30A's that are going to be sent to China. So if that comes through, a lot of sell-side guys are not even modeling for China, to contribute to earnings in the next few quarters. If they get China, that could be a big uptick for the stock, let's say, in the next three months or so. Do we have any indication of Chinese demand for Nvidia, not retail demand for Nvidia stock,

China demand for Nvidia chips? Well, as a portion of their sales, I think this past quarter was like less than 3%, and it dropped from 13% of total revenues. So to your question, that, you know, less than 3% could really uptake. But no, we don't have numbers because no, Alibaba's not going to share how many chips. Unfortunately, Nvidia's not breaking out a customer per customer basis in terms of who's buying how many chips. And especially now because you still need licenses to send advanced tips to China.

And Nvidia said that process is taking really long time. Even AMD, AMD, CFO spoke at City just yesterday and said that they have pretty much stalled all production of their chips going to China because they're still trying to work out how they're going to get the chips there, how they're going to get the licenses. So there's still a lot of red tape. But once they get through that red tape, then it's seen as a big, nice uptick for both of these names. Christina, parts to another less. Christina, always great stuff. We know you're going to be busy tonight. Thank you very much. Thanks. All right. We have some good news to report. Fidelity investment says that as the stock market has gone up, there are a record number of 401k

millionaires in America right now. Overall, average 401k balances hitting an all-time high this year as markets came back. Now, most of you don't touch where you invest your 401k money, maybe move it around a little bit, but are some of those 401K sabers kind of stuck in outdated investments? Sharon Epperson, joining us now to explain and how to avoid what she will call stuck money. Sharon? Stuck money. Stuck money. Sounds like a segment. Yeah, it's great news what we've seen, though, you know, looking at these 401k millionaires, 595,000 of them, a record high in the second quarter, the average balance up 8% from the previous quarter, $137,000 on average. But then the other part is 95% of the overall 401k investors didn't make any changes at all to their portfolios. That

might have been fine if they were in a Target Date fund and it was, you know, fulfilling their goals. But if they weren't, and they just had it there, because that's the kind of what they've had for the last years and years and years, that stuck money. That's money that you haven't properly invested. And it could be in your 401K. It could be a forgotten 401k from a previous employer where the money's just stuck there. You've forgotten, you had it, so you haven't invested. People forget they have 401ks. I don't know how you do that, but some people do. People forget stock certificates that they got decades and decades ago and, you know, what they should be doing with that now. They lose their Bitcoin key. Oh, that's a separate segment. This was, the second quarter this year was

not a normal quarter. Okay. Sometimes stock's up, go down a little bit, whatever. Stocks got crushed on the tariff news, right? The markets fell 20%. General news programs. I'm not pointing any fingers at any of them because they pretty much all did it. We're like, ah!

Hair on fire, we're doomed. It's shocking the data that you've got that people, thankfully, didn't panic. No, no. I mean, thankfully they didn't panic. They kept their savings rate steady, close to 15% when you think about what the employers were putting in

and the employee contribution. that's fantastic news. And the fact that people were not doing what a lot of stuck money people do and hoard cash or sell everything and put it into cash. And then outside of those 401K, some people were doing that. So it's just important to constantly be thinking about what the long-term goal is,

because we're talking about 401K money, right? So we're talking about the long-term goal and make sure that what the investments are are going to add up to what you need. Is there a way to get stuck money unstuck? You can definitely get it unstuck. I just want to keep saying stuck money. You can get stuck money unstuck by contacting former employers.

If you think you have a 401K, you can't remember, you know, what you did with that. Did you roll it over? But there are actually websites you can go to that you can help you search for whether or not you have that 401k, how to get it out. And also other assets, Missing Money.com, I got $25 that I didn't. I don't know where in Massachusetts, back in college days I had an account. But to get a $25. It was $25. It was $25.

I don't know. It was just sitting there. You literally had you found $25? I literally found $25 and had a check. It's like half a dinner these days. Exactly. I got half a dinner. I got the roll. This is the modern equivalent of like lifting up the couch cushion and there's like $13 and change or whatever. But it's important for people when they have a life change to look at that 401K, whether it's marriage, divorce, a new kid, buying a house, all your finances together will help you figure out what you need to be doing long term.

So take that time to make sure that what's in that 401k or what's in your retirement is going to be doing that for you. And then don't be just so overwhelmed by everything where we talked about, all the turbulence that we saw, everybody going, ah, you know. Yeah. Well, it was literally pan. I heard, I've referenced so many times. I heard one, again, no names, whatever. It was general news program, national show. And they had somebody on at the top. It was like, retirees are being obliterated. I was like, we wiped out. It was like, you only get wiped out if you sell. Right. But then I got buried on Twitter. I finally deleted the tweet because people are coming out. I just didn't want to deal with it. So we automate it. That's what the beautiful thing is about having those payroll to your 401K. Do that with all of your investments. Have them automated so you're not emotional about it. When I used to be on the floor of the mercantile exchange

and anything happened with gold or silver, I'd be like, I need some. How do I get some? Which I do. It's not been in my portfolio and I haven't missed it not having it, but it wouldn't fulfill the goals that I had. So you have to not be emotional about whatever is happening and stick to whatever your plan is.

Automating that, it's going to make that happen. Good stuff. Real world advice. Emotions are real, though. They're a hard thing. It is hard. But by the way, I just gave a lot of fodder the talk shows because if anybody has $13

and change on their couch, they're filthy. There's dirty people, like, because that's just money over years and that's gross. Sharon Epperson, thank you very much. By the way, you can learn more about retirement saving strategies. Sign up for Sharon's free newsletter. Money 101.

You can use the QR code on the screen. You can go to cbc.com slash money 101 or just ask somebody who knows how to do it. Let's get a CNBC News update now with Kate Rogers. Hi, Brian. New York. Attorney General Letitia James is appealing the reversal of President Trump's $500 million civil fraud penalty.

An appeals court tossed the penalty last month saying it was excessive. James filed a brief today with New York's highest court. The document does not detail her arguments for why it should be overturned. The president of Northwestern University announced his resignation today after serving three years in the role. Michael Schill's decision to step down comes after he faced Republican congressional condemnation over pro-Palestine protests on his campus and subsequent funding cuts of $800 million from the Trump administration. And another big change is coming to Paramount under new CEO David Ellison.

The company reportedly told employees today they will have to return to office five days a week starting in January. Employees that do not want to comply can start seeking buyouts by September 15th according to variety. Brian, back over to you. I have a feeling other companies like that are going to go all the same direction. We'll see. Kate Rogers. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right, coming up, we are counting down to kickoff. Pro football is back tonight. And NBC Sports, Mike Tarika, will join us to talk about tonight's Eagles, Cowboys, matchup, the business of the NFL and much, much more. Can't wait for that. It's coming up. Stick around.

CryptoWatch is sponsored by Crypto.com. Crypto.com is America's premier crypto platform. Ready for some pro football. The NFL opener between the champion Eagles and the visiting Dallas Cowboys on NBC and Peacock tonight. Coverage kicks off 7 p.m. And it's so anticipated that some NBC channels like the USA Network I just noticed have a countdown. You know, we have like a countdown to the Fed on CNBC. They have a countdown to the game tonight.

Let's talk more about tonight. The season and more. Joining us is Mike Tariko, live in Philadelphia. head of tonight's big game doing play-by-play for NBC tonight, Sunday night football, the Super Bowl, and so much more. Mike, great to have you on. Thanks for joining us. Good, see, Brian.

It's been seven months, so some of us been counting down every day. I'm just glad everyone is with us on the countdown tonight. Yeah, but you haven't been taking seven months off. I see you everywhere, which is amazing. You are in Philadelphia tonight. All right, first off tonight, Eagles coming off the championship, Dallas, some people say in disarray. what is going to be the big storyline tonight?

All right. The Dallas Disarray thing is being overblown a bit. We were down in Dallas on Monday, watch the Cowboys practice, talk to Brian Schottinheimer, their new head coach, to C.D. Lamb and to Dak Prescott, George Pickens, the new wide receiver. They're not in disarray. But Micah Parsons trade is big news.

Sometimes when you have a trade like that and a big name personality, one of the best past rushers in the league leaves the building, it can have everybody down. We were in the building. It's not down. They're positive. That doesn't mean they're not going to miss Mike and Parsons, but this team was very poor against the run.

They feel like the guy they got in the trade from Green Bay, Kenny Clark will help them the run defense. They don't have that edge rusher. They feel a group of guys will have to be there to create pressure. But if this team is going to win, I think Brian is scoring points. And they've got a chance on offense with their additions there. If they can protect DAC and he can stay healthy,

they have a chance to score some points. Yeah, some people saw that trade as them kind of giving up. I think we got Jerry Jones, by the way, on CNBC in a couple of hours today. As a Packers guy, I like the trade. I'm terrified, Mike, to get my hopes up too much. Jordan Lovey's still young. Are the Packers for real? I mean, do they have a shot here?

Of course. I mean, the odds makers have added Green Bay to that little velvet rope club inside the velvet ropes of the teams that people think can be in the Super Bowl, along with Detroit and Philadelphia in the NFC, I would include Tampa and Washington and the Rams in that group as well. And in the AFC, the usual suspects of Kansas City, Baltimore,

and Buffalo are the ones getting the most attention. And there are others on the fringe of that. But I would say this, Green Bay, this trade could work out for both teams. What Jerry Jones essentially has done with the Cowboys is instead of all the money into three guys, which would be Prescott, the wide receiver, C.D. Lamb,

and the edge rusher, Michael Parsons. The Micah Money gets spread out, allows them to keep five or six other players, extending contracts with good young players, and build with the draft and a couple of extra first-round picks for in the next two years. For Green Bay, just think of the history. When they've added a big name, veteran free agent, it's been very rare. It's been Reggie White. It's been Charles Woodson. The Packers have been successful.

I think their offense is good enough and can get even better this year. So it is possible that the trade works out for both sides. The one thing I can guarantee you is nobody's going to know for not just a couple of months, but probably a couple of years to see if this trade was right for both or wrong for one. Yeah. No matter what happens tonight, let's say the Eagles win. It's a pretty big spread. I think Dallas covers, but I think the Eagles win.

Jerry Jones can sit in that owner's box. Why not? You're giving NFL picks? Why? I'll do it. You want to do stock picks. No, go ahead. I like it.

You don't want. I'm not giving stock picks. I will save that for Kramer and others. There you go. I'm not afraid to give the game picks. That said, let's say the Cowboys lose tonight. Jerry Jones can still sit that owner's box because the CNBC valuations came out this morning, Mike,

and could say, ha, ha, my team is worth $12.5 billion. $4 billion more than the Eagles. Are you shocked at the Cowboys? What did Jones pay for the Cowboys 30 years ago? Yeah, it was right around $160 million. I'm not shocked at all. the way we've seen valuations go up around sports. The valuation we saw with the sale of the Washington commanders gave you a hint.

And then what we saw with the sale of the Celtics and then the purchase of the Lakers have just shown you the value of these flagship franchises, that I like to call them, flagship franchises in sport. And why do they become such? Well, there's usually a direct correlation of a stretch of success and a time where they dominated the national TV schedule. And through the 90s, Dallas was dominant, along with great personalities. And the Cowboys had a big brand before that. It just elevated that brand. Anyone who's watched the Netflix series on the Cowboys, you see a little bit of those personalities.

30 years later, they still make you smile and laugh. And Jerry has always gone for the big headline, the big sale. The Cowboys are a constant in the news. And that has kept their fans engaged. Sometimes their fans get upset. But they're incredibly loyal and passionate. And I would say, you know, this is 20-some-odd years. of me covering the NFL on the road many weeks of that 20 years during the season.

I'd say Pittsburgh and Dallas are the two teams that travel when you go. Their fans are in the road stadium supporting the Cowboys and the Steelers at a higher level than any other team. So they're a national brand. So I'm not surprised with the valuation. Well, as the Chargers fan may be left, I can assure you when the Steelers are out in L.A., it's black and yellow in the stands. Yes. I'm going to give you a little CNBC style nugget, Mike.

And by the way, feel free to drop this into tonight's coverage. If you want to mention my name, I wouldn't care. Jerry Jones paid $140 million for the Cowboys in 1989. The inflation calculator, thank you, BLS, has that at $373 million. So the $140 million then is now $373 million. We just valued the team at $12.5 billion. Fair to say, Jerry Jones and some of these other longtime sports, owners made the greatest trades of all time.

Undoubtedly. And Dallas, it's the franchise valuation. It's the stadium as well. And it's also their practice facility, the star in Dallas. Dallas has always been a chess piece move ahead on the business side over the years. And has shown a lot of the NFL owners how to increase the valuation of their franchises. And to be candid, the league as well. And I think Jerry's presence in the league, when you write the story of,

Jerry Jones, a lot of it will be fire at Tom Landry by the Cowboys, success with the Cowboys, move on from Jimmy Johnson, et cetera, et cetera. But a lot of it would have to include how the NFL has grown from a business standpoint. And he's one of the key reasons and people-wise. So that's all good. He wants to win. He's 82, I believe. He wants to win again.

And I don't think we're going to see them on the sidelines very long if this trade is not the right move and staying active to try to get back to the top of the NFC. Yeah, well said. We'll look forward to tonight. Mike Trico, love having you on, despite the fact that you are a Syracuse alum, and as a Virginia Tech Hokie, I will never, ever, ever forget November 1998

when Donovan McNabb led to comeback that broke the Hokie Nation's heart. But we'll save that for another segment, maybe. I'm sure there are a few Syracuse people in your control room in your building right now who are with me. So thanks for the go orange, and we'll talk to you anytime. Steph Cratter, who produced this segment, is from Syracuse. Mike, Toreko, look forward to tonight.

Let you get back to your day job, Mike. Thank you very much. All right. And again, coverage of the game tonight in Philly, 7 o'clock Eastern Time on NBC and Peacock. And by the way, we referenced it. Don't miss Cowboys owner Jerry Jones right here at CNBC 4 p.m. Eastern time today. He's in Philly. By the way, they're keeping him safe.

He's got like 700 security around him. All right, coming up. A power check. on that mystery stock. All right. Breaking news right now, Lisa Sue of AMD just leaving the White House. Again, there was an AI education meeting that was set up by First Lady Melania Trump. And Lisa Sue was just leaving the White House. She did make some comments to camera.

Thought we had those. We do not. When we get them, we will. We do have them. All right, fantastic. Lisa Sue leaving the White House. Let's listen in. Or this evening for the Rose Garden.

Yes, I'm looking for. forward to it. What's your message to the president on AI, on tech in general? I think AI is, without a doubt, the most transformational technology of our lifetime. And so I think we're trying to accelerate, you know, AI leadership for the United States. And certainly we think that this administration has done a lot for that. It was a great event with the First Lady. And we're happy to be a part of this. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you so much. All right, you can see that. One comment from AMD CEO, Lisa Sue, leaving the White House event. We saw Sachinadella, the CEO of Microsoft, leaving a few minutes ago. All right, time now for your power check in that graphic that we brought up, that mystery stock. That was Visa. Let's talk about Visa and more.

Joining us, Adam Phillips, managing director of investments at EP Wealth Advisors. Adam, thank you very much. What's your take on Visa? Sure. Hi, Brian. Well, look, Visa is actually one of the stocks we've held the longest in our in our equity strategy, going back more than 15 years now. And it's really, I'm not going to say there's anything like a permanent aim and a strategy, but it certainly deserves a place

because we know that consumption is such a big driver of the economy. And Visa operates in an effective duopoly along with MasterCard. So if we believe the economic outlook is healthy, then this is certainly a company that is of high quality. And they tend to print cash. They have a 70% profit margin and really healthy free cash flow. Well, they say one man's treasure is another man's trash. And speaking of, you like waste management, because I know what, it's not going away, trash. That's exactly right. Look, alternative artificial intelligence gets a lot of the attention these days.

But trash, it doesn't have to be so boring, right? Waste management is not a cyclical company, and so it does provide that downside protection. But this is also for a trash company, they're still generating healthy revenue growth and earnings growth. J.P. Morgan actually had a report out a couple days ago that said that the active landfills in the U.S. are expected to shrink by 10 to 15 percent in the next few years. Waste management has the most among the space in terms of landfill space. And so that gives them pricing power. This is a company that we think is very additive to portfolios right now. Good stuff. Waste Management and Visa. Adam Phillips, EP wealth, cut it a little bit short with the brink. breaking news. Adam, we'll get you back on. Thank you very much. All right, still ahead.

The random but interesting thing that is happening with gold and the stock market. Trust me, you've got to hear this one. It's coming up. All right, time for an RBI. This is one of our favorites ever, not only because it's random but interesting, but it's also informative. Charlie Bellello at Creative Planning uncovered this crazy stat. If we had to ask you, which has done better over 20 years, the stock market or gold, we're guessing you'd say, oh, it's easy. It's a stock market. Well, no. Look at that. Over 20 years, they've exactly tied. The entire stock market is measured by the VTIETF and the IAU for gold, both returning 658% over 20 years. Yeah, stocks pay a dividend, gold can cost money, et cetera. But that is an incredible, incredible stat from Charlie and the team of creative planning. So we stole it for RBI, random, but interesting. Folks, thank you, as always for watching.

Closing Power Lunch. Closing bell starts right now.