Power Lunch - Stocks sell off into weekend 3/27/26

Episode Date: March 27, 2026

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie joins the show to discuss regulation of prediction markets. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan brings his latest analysis on the crude oil industry.   And what is going on with the mega-cap tech trade? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It is the unlucky five in a row as we head for five straight down weeks. Oil rising again, welcome to Power Lunch alongside Kelly. I am Brian. The war entering its fifth week, energy hitting more new records and gas. It could reach four bucks a gallon nationwide for the first time in four years. Oh, we're almost there. Meantime, proposed federal legislation would ban prediction market bets on sports, war, elections, and government actions. It's the latest in a flurry of proposals to rein in prediction markets.

One outspoken critic is here to respond, former New Jersey governor and strategic advisor to the American Gaming Association, Chris Christie, is coming up. Plus, we'll talk about the trouble in tech. Once the market's biggest engine, now under pressure with major names like Microsoft and META down 30% or more since last summer. We'll discuss whether the pain is nearing an end or not. All right, so obviously we've got another big hour ahead, but let's start with something that you aren't hearing much about anywhere else. That is the prediction markets. Those, of course, are the online markets where you can bet on the outcomes of pretty much anything, from politics, economics, to sports, to even the weather.

And lately, there have been some eyebrows raise over a few very, shall we call them, timely or well-placed bets. Amon Javers in Washington with more on a new report on exactly this. Amen. Yeah, Brian, that's exactly right. This is a new report that's out from TRM Labs. That's the blockchain analysis firm. They've got this fascinating new report this morning looking at massive growth and prediction markets

and raising what the firm calls market integrity questions around potential insider trading on the Iran war. Now, first, the big numbers from the report, TRM found that monthly trading volume, which was around $1.2 billion in 2025, began to accelerate sharply in September of 25, and by early of 26, grew to nearly $21 billion per month. That doesn't appear to be always just the same users betting more money. TRM says that the number of individual wallets interacting with polymarket, limitless, opinion market, and predict dot fund increased from $462,000 in January of 25 to a peak of $837,000 in February of 26. But because a person can own more than one wallet, not exactly clear how many individual human beings are participating in these markets. And then there's this suspicious trading that you mentioned.

Brian. TRM says it identified four wallets that turned roughly $40,000 into $872,000 by betting on U.S. military action against Iran in January and February of this year. All four, TRM says, entered markets priced between 10 and 80 cents per share, implying 10 to 80 percent probability and redeemed at a dollar when the market resolved. Now, TRM says these four wallets have largely never traded before and then came in at similar times to place bets on one. when the U.S. would strike Iran. After collecting their winnings, TRM says all four wallets swept their balances

and they have not reentered the market. TRM says the behavior raises, quote, questions about potential coordination or shared information in these markets, guys. Back over to you. Yeah, there is a groundswell. It feels like some momentum building to start to tighten the reins a little bit here.

Amen, thanks very much. Let's review the growing pressure on prediction markets. Just this week, Senators Schiff and Curtis proposed a bipartisan bill to stop the CFTC from being able to regulate sports-style prediction markets and turn that regulation over to the states. Another bipartisan bill would ban congressional members, their family, and other elected officials from putting money into prediction markets. We've also had a group of congressional Democrats proposed legislation that would ban sports, election, and war-related contracts altogether. And don't forget last week, the state of Arizona

filing criminal charges against Kalshi for illegal gambling and election wagering. Calcian Polymarket issuing press releases this week saying they've tightened guardrails to prevent insider trading on their platforms. Joining us now as former New Jersey Governor and current American Gaming Association Strategic Advisor Chris Christie. He, of course, led the fight to legalize sports betting and give states the choice about it. Governor, it's great to have you back. And let's start with, it does seem since the last time that we spoke, that there's now a slew of people looking to reign in this activity. What would you say are the first and most necessary steps? Well, first off, let's remember something that with all the different individual bets you were just talking about the wallets that went from 40 to 872K, still for companies like Calci and Polymarket, 90% of their activity is on sports.

These are in the main sports betting companies operating outside the law in all 50 states in this country. and it's not only in the states where sports gambling is legal. It's in the states where sports gambling has been made illegal by those individual states. So what you're seeing is a lot of more aggressive state action going on. You mentioned Arizona taking aggressive state action. You can see it in Iowa as well

and some other places that are going to become much more aggressive about it. And in addition, you've had the CFTC saying, or will be the regulator. And you've seen these wild bets in other areas of governmental action going on. And now they put out a statement saying we're going to tighten the guardrails. Well, you've had people on your program

from these companies over and across the network here at CNBC who have been saying there's no problem at all. We have safeguards in place. What we're showing is there are no safeguards in place. These are rogue actors who are out there operating outside the law and they need to be brought back within the law.

by each individual state, not by a federal regulatory agency that literally has no investigators on staff. So you are well known, obviously, as the former governor of the great state of New Jersey and presidential candidate. But, Chris, I'm going to ask you to put your former prosecutor hat on, the Attorney General of the state of New Jersey. Legally, to Chris Christie, what is the difference between Kelly or Brian betting on the outcome of a basketball? basketball game on a fan duel or a draft Kings, or Kelly and Brian and I betting on Kalshi or Polymarket, who wins

the game? What is the legal difference between the online betting markets and the prediction markets? There's no legal difference between those two. For the better. For the better, they're betting

on the outcome of a sporting event. It's a sports bet. Now, they call it something different on a predictive market. They try to paint it as an investment. But in the end, Brian, it is a bet. It's not an investment. You're getting anything back in return, like a security that you would get or a commodity that you might own as part of a trade. Now, this is all about betting on sports. And so for the better, there's absolutely no difference at all except for one very important thing. If you're betting with a draft

Kings, an MGM, a fan duel that is regulated by the states, if something goes wrong with your bet, you can go to a state regulator and seek enforcement. If it goes wrong on one of the predictive markets, there is literally no

place to go. You're out of luck. Governor, this might take us a little bit, you know, into deeper territory, but, you know, so many of these states, the pitch, and you know, I'm a New Jersey person, I'm thinking about this from your point of view, but if we legalize sports betting, I'm not necessarily a huge fan of that, but fine, you get the revenue, maybe you do something

for education. I think that's the best case scenario, and I understand the prediction markets are now coming in and cannibalizing that. How much of this should be a concern to state budgets and how much of the original revenue behind sports betting has actually gone to fund things like school choice or education? A lot. You look at in some of these states where you have school choice programs that are being

funded by this that are being significantly impacted. In New Jersey, for instance, they collect over $200 million a year in tax off of sports betting. And so the concern is certainly in part tax revenue, but I would argue to you that's just a small part of it, that the lack of regulation impacts potentially those who are betting on the games and whether they're going to get paid and whether or not, you know, the market itself is going to be a fair market to the better. Then, in addition to that problem, you're looking at sports integrity. In the legalized betting markets that we have in the individual states, they are required by regulation to be monitoring along with the sports betting companies unusual betting activity

inside or betting activity potentially. and when they see something unusual, they're under an obligation to report that to the sports leagues and to law enforcement. The predictive markets have no such obligation, nor are they doing it in any way right now. And I think that's the problem and where the fix is going to have to happen, right?

Governor, where it's... The insider trading laws this country have been shaped and formed for 70, 80 years coming out of the 1930s, and they're pretty well-known and well-regulated. there's a couple holes, but whatever. The prediction markets, it's a bit of a different story. If somebody tells me something that might influence the overall stock market,

and I said, well, okay, I'm going to go on one of these prediction markets to make a giant bet. Turns out I'm right and I get cashed out. There's nothing wrong legally wrong with that now, is there? No, there isn't. Should there be? Should there be? Well, there should be. And by the way, as it pertains to sports, it should not be happening.

at all outside of state regulation. You know, here's the problem. The federal government through the CFTC right now is trying to fix a problem that is not broken. You know, sports gambling has been going on in this country now for just about eight years. It'll be eight years this May that has been broadly available across the country.

And you have not seen any problems reported in state regulated sports gambling. We don't need the federal. government involved in it. Now, if they want to have predictive markets on some of the other issues that you have all discussed this morning on other actions, well, that's something that the states could consider if they want to include that, or the federal government could say this is an area that we want to go into. But on sports betting, guys, it's not a problem. There's nothing broken. Why is the federal government intervening here? And what we're seeing

is something very opposite of what the Trump administration has said is their philosophy. They've said they want to move power back to the states. They want to lessen federal regulation. They want to shrink the size of the federal government. Yet you have the CFTC out there doing exactly the opposite, wanting to do more federal regulation, wanting to make the federal government bigger and more intrusive in the lives of people. This is opposite of what the Trump administration has stood for. And one has to wonder why. Well, really glad you're here to lay it out for us. I have a feeling that this debate, this discussion, is going to only increase in Governor Chris Christie. Welcome back anytime. Thank you very much. Great. Thanks for having me on, guys. Appreciate it. Have a great weekend.

And we do need to note CNBC and Cali have a commercial relationship that includes CNBC a minority investment. We reached out to Calci and Pauley Market for comment. We're showing you the statement from Calci here on the bipartisan bill proposed by Senator Schiff and Curtis. They say the bill would push the behavior offshore without regulation. and that competition should run its course without protecting monopolies. They also call the charges from the Arizona Attorney General, quote, seriously flawed, meritless in a separate statement, and Polly Market did not have a comment on any of the new legislation. Coming up, stocks are heading towards session lows.

Mag 7 or Lag 7 will talk about how tech's been doing amidst this selloff. Gene Munster will join us on the other side of the break. We've got an hour and 45 minutes left of the session, but I mean, unless something absolutely bonkers happen, and stocks are going to end another week in the red, the NASDAQ and big tech, the big underperformer, the recent tech pain, I just said peck, which combines tech and pain. You know what, it's a new word. The recent peck is going to continue for another week.

With today's losses, the NASDAQ and the Dow, now down more than 10% from their highs, which means they're in a technical correction, leading to sell off some big tech stocks, once seen kind of as unstoppable, or dare we say, magnificent. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, all down 30 to 20% off their 52-week highs, most of which hit last fall or last summer. Microsoft, in fact, in its deepest drawdown since January of 2023. And get this, maybe it's an RBI. Microsoft is now 63% below the average price target of Wall Street analysts, 63%.

Now, all this happening is concerns amount over valuations, interest rates, and what come next for growth. With us now, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management and no doubt an inventor of many words. Gene, it's been a long week. We're glad to have you on the program. I saw Kevin Gordon-Schwab with a great tweet as he has wanted to do, that the PE, the Ford Multiple on the NASDAQ 100 is now about 20, down from over 30, just five months ago. At what point does this sell-off stop? It stops. with a catalyst, and I think the catalyst is beyond the geopolitical piece. What is what you've just described is beyond the geopolitical side, the sell-off here. And the catalysts come in the form

probably of those Mag 7 that haven't had the big catalysts. And so, for example, we saw NVIDIA last Monday. They essentially took up their calendar 27 revenue growth from 30 to 40 percent, big step up there. Last quarter, when meta reported, They took their numbers up for growth for this March quarter from 25 to probably what's going to be 35%. So we've had some of these kind of resets higher, but I think the catalyst, to answer your question, comes in the form of some of these other companies that really haven't shined. And the closest catalyst amongst this group would be, of course, Tesla with them reporting their deliveries next Thursday. We can talk more about those, but that's a potential catalyst.

obviously has fallen below the fold in terms of pay metrics. So there are catalysts, and then what we have coming kind of later in the spring, I think, from Apple, from Google and personalized AI. So I'm still optimistic. Like that truck we're showing in the graphic, I want to back it up for a second, because do we know what the cause of this selling is? The war is obviously the easy answer for the market at large, right? Oil prices up, interest rates are up.

But the sell-off began before the war began. All these highs were kind of hit July to October of last year. So is the war an add-on reason for the selling, or is it the main reason? I don't think so, but what is it? Yeah, it's an add-on. I'd probably put it at maybe 25% of this. The bigger topic, essentially what's going on here, and we started to see this back in the beginning of November,

these numbers kept getting much higher, especially for the big companies. And it just created this concern that it really couldn't get much better, this idea of that the growth is going to somehow slow. I think what kind of represents this in its purest form was, again, that step up and guidance that Nvidia gave for next year from 30 to 40 percent. The stock traded off 8 percent in the following two and a half days after that comment. The NASDAQ was down about 3 percent during that period. And what that tells me is even me being optimistic, I wasn't expecting them to make that strong of a guide. And so what I think we're really underscoring here is that this idea about the sustainability of AI, this concern that it is not sustainable, I think, is underwriting

what this sell-off has been. And so, you know, this is going to be the challenge here, is that if you're a big believer, which I am, that the substance of AI is going to far exceed the hype, If you're in that camp, what's going to be the trigger? As these companies continue to beat numbers, of course, then the bar gets even higher for that out-year growth. And so that's the piece I feel really good about the fundamentals, kind of triggering or trying to define at what point the investors come to grips with. This is going to be growing higher for longer.

That timing and that dynamic is the piece that I think is going to be more difficult to manage. Gene, the thing on my mind, you know, you go back 10, 15 years, So many guests on our airwaves or, you know, I talk to people and they all, anyone who's sold one of these big tech platforms often comes to regret it, given the performance that they've had. But do you think that these companies fundamentally can grow wealth over the next five, 10, 15 years like they did in the past? You know, are we chasing a dream from a former era?

Well, I think that not of all of our created equal, of course. In the case of Microsoft, I'm a believer that they're going to be more challenged. talked about that 63% upside to the average target. I mean, I think that the consensus is it's a buy-down here, that conturing consensus. I think, Kelly, that's an example of a company that's going to be impacted on a seat growth basis. But a lot of these companies,

we recently increased our position around Apple. And part of the reason was after Opus 4 came out and what we saw with this personalized AI, I think that there is a massive opportunity for Apple really to get this right. I think Google also has a similar opportunity. And so I do believe that some of these companies are still should fundamentally be owned.

I also believe that if you're looking for outperformance, I think you need to own the AI trade outside of the Mag 7 or largely. Energy, maybe, you know, supply. Yeah, the energy piece to it. I think the cooling piece. We have an ETF, L-O-U-P that focuses on those smaller companies And so it feel really good to say it a different way is I think that you should still own some of these big companies. I think they're going to surprise us in the next five years.

And I think that ultimately, if you fundamentally believe that AI is going to be more transformative than what the hype is, then I think you should be, have a massive amount of your net worth should be an AI. I think we're still that early. All right. What about SpaceX, especially as they're trying to gear more towards retail investors? Is this the opportunity of a lifetime, or are you getting in an already mature valuation that might, you know, be stagnant for a while? So we are holders of SpaceX and kind of think of this is going to be, it's going to be quite a wild ride once it goes out relative to the indexing and a lot of gamesmanship kind of initially. But I think if you have the luxury of holding a company for the next decade, I think SpaceX is going to be one of those.

Again, I expected to move significantly higher out of the gate than probably come back very quickly to where its listing price is. We'll call it $1.7 trillion. But to answer your question, Kelly, is that this company has assets that really no other company has. And I mean, when it comes to growth, like the ultimate growth frontier, of course, is space. That's really important for tech investors to have that nugget out there about this open-ended growth. And I think that the company that's going to be able to tell the best story around that for the next decade is going to be SpaceX. All right. Gene, thanks. We're still going to have plenty of time to talk about it as that IPO approach is Gene Munster. Can't wait.

Joining us from late. Thank you. All right. So we know the big technology, very sensitive to interest rates. So as interest rates have been rising, many of these stocks have been falling. So what comes next for borrowing costs and debt here and around the world? because it does impact the equity market as well. Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you know, listen, obviously yields have been rising here,

but they've been rising more around the world. How do we read this? Oh, yeah, I'll tell you what. It's what's going on outside the U.S. is wild. Right now you have booned yields. They're basically up 15-year highs on a closing basis. And if you look at what's going on with the U.K., their 10-year guilt, it's around 18-year highs.

If you look at the Japanese, the JGB 10-year, 27-year highs. Now, let's go to the U.S. And I'll give you the good, the not so bad and the ugly. The good? Well, we're not really following oil today, and not as much yesterday, not like stocks. Because if you look at a one-week chart, right now at 391 in a two-year, we're down eight basis points on the day. We're only up one on the week.

We're near on chains. If you look at a 10, it's up. one on the day, it's up four on the week. So nearly unchanged as oil's moving higher, and we see that the stock market, the Dow's off, what, one and two-thirds percent. Now, if you look at right as the conflict started, the two-year now is up a little more than 50 basis points, the 10 years up a little less than 50 basis points. But here's the real issue, Brian. When the attacks happened on Saturday, that was after a Friday close. And that Friday close in a two-year

was the lowest yield close in three and a half years going back to August of 22. And for the 10-year, it was a one-and-a-half-year low close right before the conflict started. Going back to October 24, why is that important? Because not only did we catch many off sides, but it was like jumping on a trampoline the way the thing came up.

And having said that, I'm not saying it's pretty. Those are ugly numbers. But when you look at the big charts, you look at the right side, it's not nearly as big as some of the experiences going on in Europe and Asia. Back to you. All right, Rick, really appreciate that. And by the way, speaking of higher costs and inflationary aspects, Brent Crude, which is what they trade overseas on the paper market, it's above 110

a barrel. It's actually about 150, depending if you want to buy an actual physical barrel. WTI traded crude. I think a moment ago just hit 100. It's now at $99.90. We hit $100. My guess is you don't buy a barrel of oil, do you, Kelly? No.

It's the last barrel of oil you bought. You buy a gallon of gasoline. Bingo. And that is even priced off of Brent as well, not just WTI. These upward pressures, they're pushing us over for, don't you think? So yes, and they have been going up, and Patrick DeHan of GasBuddy will tell you where things are likely to go. That's next. Take a look at the energy sector hitting a new all-time high as those oil prices we mentioned are moving higher.

The group is up more than, well, I should say, double digits since the start of the Iran War and more than 30% year to date. The sector is on track for its fifth straight positive month, which does predate the war. Its longest wind streak since 2021. Think about that for a minute. Longest in five years, and that was kind of some of the COVID issues we saw. And look at some of the massive moves in the individual names. Marathon, Valero, Occidental, Phillip 66, they're all hitting all-time high. today. The biggest gainer is APA on pace for its best month since late 2020. We're talking to Charles Babrinskoy about that. Brian, he thinks there's plenty more room to run, although some question it's high

debt load. So a lot of them at all-time highs, those that aren't are trying to catch up quick. Yeah, APA, the former Apache, which is the number one gas provider in the Middle East, they have a huge Egypt operation. All right, so while the Iran war is fueling gains for energy, the pain at the gas pump is intensifying. Gas prices hitting many Americans right in the wallet. According to Gas, Drivers have now spent $7.2 billion more on gasoline since the war began. That breaks down to about $400 million per day. Overall, gas prices now back to the levels that we had just four years ago, right after Russia invaded Ukraine.

I guess the good news, oil prices are effectively flat. Right now, they're up 1% for the week. We're trying to be optimistic. We'll call that flat. The question is what happens now. joining us as the man behind some of these staggering stats. That is Patrick DeHani is, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Patrick, good to have you on and good to get your insight.

I know we don't have a whole lot of visibility, but based on the trends you're seeing nationally, is it fair to say the price of gasoline is only going to go higher in the next couple of days and weeks? Yeah, Brian, I think that's just about a guarantee at this point. And just a couple days away probably from hitting $4 a gallon. Now, the national average is inching down a little bit, a couple of cents today. That's because of some unique behaviors in some states where stations like to undercut each other. But by Monday, I would expect that we'd start to see that national average rivaling $4 a gallon. And while you and I and consumers might gripe about gasoline now, we're tracking some states.

Now, Arizona just moments ago, joining and setting a new all-time record for the price of diesel, California, Hawaii, Washington, and now Arizona. setting new all-time record highs for diesel. And now we have, boy, I just checked, 20 states where average diesel prices are over $5 a gallon, 20 states also where gases jump by over a dollar gallon in the last four weeks. So this is going to be a crippling cost to the economy. And boy, you know, next time you go in the grocery store, you may have to do a double-take. Yeah, because diesel is sort of the lifeblood of the shipping economy. obviously most trucks, trains, big, big engines, right, run by the diesel created by the man

Rudolph, diesel, by the way, who actually was a human being. You actually posted data that in California, they're laughing at five. They would love to see $5 a gallon diesel. In many cities, they're paying not only over seven, but maybe $7.5. Or $7.60 per gallon. Diesel's interesting, too, because if there's more of it in certain places, it could actually be exported. We've talked to the Energy Secretary and others about maybe making sure or trying to prevent further export. How severe is the diesel issue getting in the United States?

Well, you know, to your point, we're seeing some really interesting things that we've never seen when it comes to diesel and gasoline alike. That map behind me, if you notice, many of the nation's most interior states are very blue, not only for gasoline, Brian, but diesel as well, these barrels to your point where they can't be exported or where there are very limited options, we're seeing a huge discrepancy between what tractors and truckers are paying in Oklahoma versus what they're paying in California. Some areas of California, now the highest average we have right now is just outside of San Francisco at an average of 771 for a gallon of diesel.

And then you go to places like Oklahoma and Kansas where you're still just above the $4 gallon mark and some pretty significant discrepancies on the gasoline side as well, where I zoomed in this morning, Oklahoma City, still a couple prices below $3 a gallon. Those barrels are stranded in the nation's interior, and even places like Texas are seeing some of the larger increases from the last month because of their unique position for those barrels to be exported.

So, you know, I don't think I've ever looked at a map and been able to see exactly where the export market is so strong, but that's exactly what you're seeing, highlighting the amount of disruption from the Strait of Hormuz. Patrick, the economist Robin Brooks has argued that we should just embargo Iranian oil because we're trying to effectively get to that outcome, but in a much more involved way militarily and otherwise. I'm just curious if that argument ever carried water with the administration.

He thinks they should have done it for Russia as well back in 2022. What would the impact? Is there a way for you to have a knee-jerk sense of what the impact of embargoed Iranian oil might have on the markets? Well, and again, we can take these actions and sanctions, but I think the calculation, at least from my perspective, is how is Egram going to react then? Are they going to sow more chaos in the Middle East? That's what we're trying to avoid here. And I think almost every action that the U.S. is going to take potentially would lead to a larger reaction on Iran's side. And this is now developing

muscle memory at four weeks in. The Iranians are getting really good at basically just ignoring the U.S., creating more chaos, and that's going to put a lot more pressure on the United States and its allies. Sorry to jump in running out of time very quickly. How severe? California, in October of last year, Patrick, I was out west, talk to a guy, California Resource CEO. We talked about California's problems, two refineries, one shutdown, one being shut down. California had a shortage of gasoline well before the war began. Now the war is making it even worse.

Arizona may be worse than California because they actually used to get gas from California. How severe? Let me be more direct. Is it possible California has gas shortages at some point soon? I would hope not, but they're very beholden now to an import market that has suddenly grown vastly tighter in the last three weeks. So it's not impossible. I'd hope that that moment wouldn't come. There's a lot of pipelines, by the way, that are looking at California now.

But I can't rule it out that in the weeks ahead, if this continues, there could be some of that that comes to the U.S. that we're already seeing in Asia. Patrick DeHan, gaspuddy.com and GasBuddy app. Patrick, we really appreciate your time. Thank you very much. Thanks, Brian. All right, speaking of energy, you don't forget to sign up for our upcoming newsletter,

Power Insider. You can scan the QR code on your screen or subscribe. It'll be a weekly focus on energy investing and getting really to better know some of the key people in energy around the world. It's going to be rolling out in a few weeks. You can sign up today. All righty.

Normally bold retail investors, are they starting to get some cold feet? Are they still buying the dip? or starting to rethink that. We're going to have more after the break. Wall Street is eagerly awaiting the filing of Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, which could happen any day now and be valued at over a, value the company at over a trillion dollars.

What's striking is that, according to Reuters, Musk is discussing allocating as much as 30% of the IPO to individual investors. Here to discuss the impact that could have and to share some insight on what, you know, the psyche, the state, the wealth of the retail investor is Gunjin Banergy. She's the lead writer for Markets Live at the Wall Street Journal and a CNBC contributor. Gungent, it's great to see you again.

Let's maybe take this piece by piece. Given the market, say, can we just start there for a second? The retail investor is often perceived to be buying the dips. Maybe, you know, crypto's been ahead when that's what Robin Hood tells us, but in the stock market generally, they remain unfazed by a lot of what we've been through. Is anything changing or different this time? We have seen a shift in the first quarter of 2026. Almost every time I've sat down with you both.

You know, we've been talking about how retail is buying every single dip. pounced on those opportunities. Recently, we saw them sell the rip on Monday during that big stock surge. According to J.P. Morgan, we are seeing decreased activity. Bloomberg data shows that retail investors recently made up around 18% of stock trading activity. That's down from the fourth quarter and one of the lowest levels since 2024. It's funny because people yesterday were saying volumes were light on that sell-off day, broadly speaking.

But, okay, so a little, maybe getting a little gun shy, probably wrong analogy to use here. at the same time we have this mega IPO coming. Here comes SpaceX. People love Tesla, huge retail fan base. They've stayed with Elon through the ups and downs. Now they have another one to pick from and he's giving them a big chunk of this IPO. How do we expect that to go over? It's fascinating. This has been a growing trend among companies over the past few years to give more of their shares around the IPO to individual investors recognizing the power that they've had in markets. We saw this with the crypto company Gemini. They also reserved around 30% for individual investors and they saw this big pop around the IPO of around 14%. We saw it with the

Buy Now Pay Later company, Clarner as well. And there's some funny because both those companies that you cited, I mean, you know how the story. I'm not saying how it ends, but they haven't been, but Musa hasn't been. Clana hasn't been great. You know, Gemini had to lay off a bunch of people. So, but in the case of Musk, Musk is Musk. I mean, Tesla is different. SpaceX probably is different. Can you think of anyone who has been more influential with retail investors than Elon Musk? You know, I think of him. I think of Michael Saylor. I think of Ryan Cohen. But he looms larger than all of them. He has this tremendous power to ignite enthusiasm among individual investors. We've seen that in the Tesla market, right? Where Tesla is literally one of the biggest casinos in the entire financial market around its options trading, around retail activity.

And that is because of Elon's power to influence individual investors. And I think we could see that again with the SpaceX idea. Yeah. And I think there's, listen, people love Musk. They love to hate. He's a polarizing figure to some, to others. He's a, they'll buy whatever he sells, right? I don't know what's right, but I do know that SpaceX is going to generate a lot of headlines on CnBC and the Wall Street Journal. How important Gunjin is it to just have a space, whatever you think of the company, just to have it go public because it's going to attract a lot of attention, right? It's just, it's like a Brad Pitt movie.

It doesn't matter what it is, it's go or Tom Cruise. It's going to get attention. Again, Tesla, one of the biggest casinos out there, the casino for SpaceX is already open in the prediction markets, right? Before its IPO, people are betting on... That's true? I haven't even seen that. There's bets tied to, you know, where it's going to IPO, where it's going to list, what its market cap is going to be.

So we're already seeing... I'm going to tie this into the first segment with Governor Chris Christie. Yes, yes. I don't even know that. The market for SpaceX bets is already popping, and it has not even IPOed yet. I don't know. I want, do you think anyone's, I guess if you love Musk, you could now own a piece of both empires.

You don't really have to pick one or the other. That's the only thing I wonder, vis-a-vis Tesla. You know, he's, all right, we got to go. He's a marketing genius. I will say, they didn't have to spend a penny on marketing for Tesla because he attracts so much attention. It's impressive. Gunjin, thanks for now. Thank you.

Thank you. All right, let's get now to McKenzie Seagalos for a CNBC News update. The Trump administration is reportedly telling allies there are no immediate plans for ground invasion in Iran. That's according to Bloomberg and comes as multiple reports suggest the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 troops to the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today that the U.S. can achieve its objectives without using ground troops, but that having them there gives the president options. The acting director of ICE, Todd Lyons, has reportedly been hospitalized twice for stress-related issues as he carries out the president's immigration agenda. Politico reports

that the hospitalizations have occurred over the last seven months. And as a statement to Politico, Lyons said the stress his experience was not due to the White House. And a federal judge denied an NCAA motion for a restraining order against draft kings from using trademarks associated with the men's and women's basketball tournament

including March Madness and the Sweet 16. The judge ruled the league didn't show how the online sports betting platform's use of the terms would cause irreparable harm. Brian, sending it back to you. All right. Mackenzie Segalos, thank you very much. All right,

Your next guest has some top picks for you in a sector that some might say is boring, but making money is never boring. We're back right after this. Welcome back. It is time for today's Power Check. Joining us to discuss some of his picks on this increasingly difficult market is David Speaker, the chief market strategist at Turtle Creek Creek Wealth Advisors. And you are in the Dallas area. That's correct.

We're based in Dallas. Maybe that's given you some of the energy names that have been so strong in this market. and we kind of talk about what to do there. But let's start with a name hitting an all-time high today. EnterG announced a new agreement with META to build an AI data center in Louisiana. Talk us through this one. Boring old electrical utility based in New Orleans that serves customers in the south and southeast, including Texas.

The deal with META is huge, and that's one of the reasons we like them, is their exposure to data centers. So META's building the largest data center they've ever built in northeast Louisiana, and it's going to require seven new natural gas plants for energy. to be able to provide the power. And so META is going to pay for that. And so this is great for Energy's existing customers because it won't raise their rights, right?

It's going to save them a lot of money that META is going to fund that. So maybe this is a new trend, and data center development continues to be very, very strong. Stock up 7% today. All right. Next up is, and this is related, because EnterG probably can't build the data center with META

unless it uses parts from Eaton. Correct. ETN, see what I did there? Now, Stocky's off its recent highs, still up 13% year-to-date. Some would say this is like one of these quiet sort of under-the-radar AI-type plays. And also a company that's been around for like 100 years, and a lot of people thought was pretty doggone boring for a long time. Sure, sure.

No disrespect to eat. Right, right. So this is kind of a vertical integration play I had today. AI, data centers, power generation, and Eaton falls right into that power generation spot. They provide the infrastructure for power plants. So yes, energy is going to use Eaton's products to build their power plants. They are going to grow earnings at 13 or 14 percent for the next two years, and they're squarely in the middle of that demand for power,

which continues to be very, very strong. And again, data centers, a big reason why. All right, you're not just biased towards all your energy plays here. No. We have a semi-name, KLA Corp. Before I just ask you about that, comment about the market broadly. We're down 10 percent from the recent highs. Are we going down 20?

Like, what's going on here? I don't think so. And let's keep this in perspective. In a normal year, on average, the market has a double-digit drawdown. It does. We're just not used to that because we haven't seen much of it in the recent past. The other thing that gives me confidence is I don't think this war lasts much longer. Neither side has an incentive to continue.

And President Trump clearly doesn't because he ran on low inflation and low interest rates, and he's getting neither of those right now. So I think we're going to get a deal done. If we don't, and inflation spikes, that's a problem. But if we get it done, I think we go back to the way the economy was before the war began, and that's how you invest. And that includes KLA Corp up 110% over the past year. You see more upside?

Absolutely. So they're squarely in the realm of AI CAPEX. They're going to benefit from that. They provide controlled equipment for the production of high-end semi-chips. And the semi-industry is growing at 11% or more for the foreseeable future. they just raise their dividend too, which we really like. They're generating a 1.24% dividend and their last quarter very, very strong. They're going to go earnings at 17% this year, 30% next year.

I don't think it's in the loop ETF because Gene Munster talked about how this is where he wants to be. And I'll have to ask him why when he comes back because this would seem to be a big part of that AI trade he's so excited about. David, thanks. Thank you. The house. Turtle Creek Wealth Advisors, Market Strategists. All right, we're not done yet. Coming up, we're going to give you a stock of the week.

All right, time to reveal our stocks of the week before we go, featuring some of the key names making headlines and moves. My Pickley, Hewlett-Packard Enterprises. Really? We never talk about it. It's down a little bit today, but it's up 11% this week. It's one of the best performers in the S&B this week, just got an upgrade or a price target raise at Evercore ISI.

HPE. We never talk about it, but maybe we should. And guess what? If you're looking for a port in the storm, who would have thought this would be the one? That's interesting, even with its slight decline today. I'm going in the other direction. Take a look at shares of Micron Sandisk. They're down 14, 15% this week as the memory chips are under pressure.

Could be Google. Could be a lot of things. They're on pace for their worst week since last year. Just want to call out. We spoke with Medi Hussaini, great analyst on the memory name from Susquehanna last hour. I asked him, I said, you know, for you is the memory space a trade or an investment? And he said, actually, it's more of a trade. Like for the next decade, I said.

He said, if you want an investment, look more towards Sandisk with some of its. I think it was NAND he was calling out. It's that there's maybe a long-term thing. Micron, he wasn't so sure about. Largely a commodity product. Not entirely, but there's a lot of commodity in there. Very cyclical. Very cyclical.

So if you want to be in the game of trying to guess exactly when that tide turns. All right. Well, we're ending our session or hour at session lows. I will see you on Fast Money 5 p.m. tonight. You're going to have a lot to talk about. Yes. Down 717. Closing bell starts right now.