Power Lunch - Tensions in the Middle East 6/23/25

Episode Date: June 23, 2025

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All right, welcome back to CNBC. I'm Brian Sullivan along with Contessa Brewer in for Kelly Evans today. Again, we are following major developments in the Middle East. Iran's armed forces launching a missile attack at a U.S. airbase in Qatar. Oil reacting, but reacting in a way that you wouldn't think. Oil is now down about 6 percent. The world viewing this, Contessa, as some sort of de-escalation. Even though missiles were fired on Qatar, they were repulsed. And the world is, the market's clearly viewing this as a de-escalation.

Yeah, but the, but the, firing back, the firing toward an American base now is adding a fresh layer of uncertainty for investors because the future of the Middle East and then there's this potential for a broader regional escalation of the conflict. And this is front and center for the markets right now. The markets, by the way, are reacting as sort of a shoulder shrug. You can see the Dow Jones up 261 points. What does this mean for geopolitics? What does it mean for energy prices? What does it mean for your investments? And we're following all of that. And we also are the perfect guest to talk about it all right now. So while you tune in to CNBC folks,

joining us now is the Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, a secretary right, I can't express thanks enough. I know how busy and sort of scary today in many ways has been the oil markets are reacting in a positive way. Oil is falling. What message, and you're a former oil and gas executive at Liberty Energy, what do you think the oil markets are trying to say right now? Look, I think a strong, confident, calm America is just a stabilizing force, both geopolitically and in the energy world. I think when people see where America stands, that President Trump's agenda of peace through strength, I think people realize things in the Middle East will eventually de-escalate and will be in a place of a much safer, a much more stable Middle East and world as a whole. Are you surprised that oil is down six percent of?

right now, Secretary Wright? No. I mean, I would not expect much movement of oil upwards from the tensions that are going on. We've seen a little bit in the run-up, but when it's clear where America stands, I'm not surprised that oil prices are moved down a little bit. They moved down maybe more than I would have guessed. But no, I think we're in such a good position today. This American energy dominance that President Trump ran on, we're at record high production of oil today, record high production of natural gas. We've got friendly, close communication relationships with our other major energy-producing nations, and we're standing strong against the one

and only one major destabilizing force in the Middle East. The Biden policy of appeasing Iran and begging them not to harm us, obviously was a provocation to Iran and showed a weak, irresolute America. A strong, confident America is a force for stability. You just brought up something that Halima Croft, who's joining us again, by the way, right now, and I were talking about in the past hour, which is this idea that Iran's kind of on an island. They're actually the rotating president of OPEC and its allies this year. There's a huge meeting coming up in a couple of days in Vienna, Austria. Everybody that you just referenced will be in the same room, literally talking.

Maybe you will be there, Secretary Wright, if you could break some news for us, we'd appreciate that. But if not, can you tell our viewers, is there sort of, are you on the? the horn with the Saudis? Are you speaking with the Emirates? Is Iran increasingly isolated, even in its oil and geographic and geopolitical world? Yeah, certainly I'm in close contact and have been all weekend with our close allies over there. And look, what do they want? They want the same thing the U.S. wants. They want the same thing Israel wants, a peace. They want commerce, not instability. That's what everybody wants.

The Middle East is poised to thrive, if not for the poison of Iran, through all of its proxy throughout the Middle East and directly from Iran. And I think you see some bubbling confidence that this 46 years of chaos and threat to the United States that Iran brought, that may be coming to an end. We may see a different era, an era of peace and prosperity and commerce as the dominating force in the Middle East. That's what everyone wants. I think that's where we're headed.

Secretary, right, yesterday I was on the phone all day with high-level insurance sources who said one after the other, their primary concern is the Strait of Hormuz remaining open because the disruption in trade routes has trickle-down effects, even for companies that don't have direct exposure to the Persian Gulf or to Iran directly. And many companies don't because of the sanctions that have been in place for so long. Can you give us some insight into how the U.S. military is thinking about the Strait of Hormuz and keeping it safe and open? Yeah, of course, it is a key waterway for the movement of oil and for natural gas.

It's important to the world. But look, all of Iran's exports and all of its imports come through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's kind of like spiting their face. Are you saying that you don't think that there's very much cause for concern over mining or closing the straight? Oh, you know, there's certainly the risk of that. You know, as Iran has been humbled and as Iran has realized, they stand alone against the rest of the world that wants peace and trade. You know, you don't know what Iran's going to do in the coming days. So there's some risk of that, but I don't think the risk is huge.

the only way Iran gets revenue is to ship its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If they close the Strait of Hormuz, it's not others they hurt. It's themselves. Yeah, and the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed. I mean, it's hard to believe that. Even during the Gulf War in 1990-N 91, Secretary, the Strait was not closed, even as missiles literally were flying. The president today, sort of social mediaing on true social, coming out and saying, We want to drill baby drill. We want to add to U.S. oil production.

The United States, to your point at the top, is already at a record high. About 13.5 million barrels per day. Do you think, do you know, is there any way to get the U.S. to produce more oil? Because ultimately, that's going to come down to the Exxons and the Chevrons and the Occidentals of the world, not the U.S. government. Exactly. You know, we've got the price signals of the market that drive investment to see. But Brian, you give that 13.5 million barrels, that's U.S. crude oil. The 100 million barrels a day you hear global oil market, that's liquid fuels. That's crude oil, that's natural gas liquids, that's ethanol, that's refinery gain. When you add in natural gas liquids, the U.S. is 20 million barrels a day. When you add in ethanol and refinery gain, we're above that. So we're over 20% of U.S. production today. And what's growing the most rapidly in the U. US is natural gas and natural gas liquids. Because as we open up more export markets, the ease the

ability to build pipelines and export terminals, we can produce more natural gas. Our crude production is continuing to grow this year. Half of that from the Gulf of Mexico, half of that onshore. And so, yeah, I feel quite good about where U.S. production stands right now. And more importantly, the investment climate for the companies you mentioned in all the producers in the United States, we want a safe, simple, sensible regulatory environment that allows them to make long-term investment decisions. We are lucky to have with us, Halima Croft, of RBC Capital Markets as well. And as you know, probably know Secretary Wright. She goes to more OPEC meetings than anybody out there in the world.

So, Halima, you're here. You've got the Secretary of Energy here. You represent RBC Capital Markets. What would be the Wall Street view for the Energy Secretary? Well, I think the interesting question I would have for the Energy Secretary is there was a fantastic meeting that was held. last week, you mentioned dialogue with OPEC members. Secretary Wright was with a big Emirati delegation where they were talking about partnership

with investment coming from the Gulf into the United States, the importance of U.S. natural gas for AI. So I would love to hear more about this partnership and he talked about the need for stability in the Middle East. How important is it to the U.S. Gulf partnership around energy, around AI? Secretary Wright? It's important.

because our major allies in the Middle East, Helimi, as you know well, are generating just huge amounts of cash. They want to profitably invest that. And there's just simply nowhere better to put capital than the United States. We have a huge buildout for AI infrastructure going on. And as you mentioned, the UAE was here.

They're major investors in that infrastructure here in the United States. They're also investing in U.S. energy infrastructure, natural gas export terminals. And if you saw their announcement for a purchase of Santos, what's the biggest driver behind that? Simply the huge upside in Alaskan oil production. So yes, I think these cross investments, U.S. investment in the United Arab Emirates, UAE investment in the United States, same thing for Saudi, same thing for Qatar, same thing for

Kuwait. This is the kind of Middle East we want going forward. And I think there's been one obstacle to that, Iran. And I think that one obstacle is going to shrink and fade away. China is still importing a lot of oil from Iran. And I'm thinking about this. If the price of oil goes up for China, then the price of manufacturing goods goes up, the price of shipping goes up, and ultimately, tariffs aside, the cost of goods for Americans goes up. Can you give us any insight into the role China is currently playing in these tensions and the escalating situation in the Middle East? Yeah, I certainly won't share any intelligence or anything there. But yeah, look, China is the taker of virtually all of Iran's exported oil.

Does China want the straight of Hormuz closed or high oil prices? Absolutely not. But they are the main customer, almost the entire customer, for Iran's oil. And you mentioned energy prices. Yeah, of course they matter. The crazy thing is here we sit today. Oil prices are more than 10% lower today. than they were 12 months ago.

And yet we've got major in the middle of major conflict in the Middle East. Only, only President Trump could bring an energy situation where we could have lower oil prices than we had a year ago in the midst of a major conflict and likely headed lower after this conflict gets resolved. On a separate note, and this is not related to the Middle East, but I have to ask you about it, Chris,

because we're seeing a heat wave across half the United States and it's spectacularly hot, and there is a real risk for the grid. And recently you and your team ordered, I think, the oldest power plant in the United States to continue. It's called Eddie Stone. It's outside of Philadelphia. I think it was built when we use Stone tools to be, it's that old, but you ordered it still open to stay open because it provides this sort of paker, this key power toward the end. Can the U.S. energy grid sustain the kind of heat that we're having right now? I know it's off topic compared to the Middle East, but let's be clear.

Tomorrow, the next day, it's still going to be hot. And this is first, this is a lot on the minds of a lot of people, maybe even more than what's happening in Iran. Oh, Brian, you're so right. And yeah, of course, I took some heat from the suspects you would expect for issuing a 202C order to keep that plant open. You know, that was just a few weeks ago. That plant is running today. When you have peak demand, you simply have to keep a capacity you have that's viable of running. I did the same thing with a coal plant in southwestern Michigan that was slated to close 15 years before its end of life.

And sure enough, two days later in MISO, in the Midwest independent system operator, they had a blackout two days later. So we need to stop digging the hole, keep working power plants open today, and do everything we can on the regulatory framework to allow new capacity to be added to our grid so we can lead in the AI race. That's what we're going to do. What is a meaningful pivot from the last four years? Secretary Wright, you know this. And this is an issue for a lot of Americans, just like the Middle East. We are so close sometimes. And the grid operator in the mid-Atlantic area, 60 million households are under what they call PJM.

Like a year ago, they issued this Friday night report, really kind of a late on a Friday night. Oh, we may not have enough power to keep the grid going. This is scary when we need air conditioning to stay cool. It's dangerously hot. For four years, the Biden administration dug a hole trying to stand in the way of energy development and forcing the closure of so many coal plants. So we can't reverse that overnight, but we've at least reversed the trajectory overnight. We're stopping the closure of viable coal plants today, and we're doing everything we can

to enable the rapid buildout of new energy generation systems. You're right. Americans depend on air conditioning and lights and the incubators and the hospitals working. You can't draw politics and make stupid decisions about energy. We suffered four years of that. And I think that's why President Trump won one election. Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy, Secretary Wright, probably keep you on all hour, but I know you've got a lot more to do.

We do appreciate your time very, very greatly today. The world's on edge. Oil price is actually down. But thank you, sir, for joining us. Thanks, Brian, Contessa, and Halima. Thank you. Thank you, Secretary. You know, Haleema, it's interesting when you look at the way we

we've been for decades trying to manage the nuclear threat from Iran. It's been through sanctions. Does this mean that they just haven't worked? Well, this is the key question. I mean, have we gotten to a point, as Secretary Wright mentioned, this oil is all going to China? And the question is, have we not been enforcing sanctions? Or do we not have the capacity to enforce sanctions? And the question I have, when he talks about Iran withering away, I thought that was an amazing statement. Does that mean that we are anticipating the regime to fall? Are we anticipating the regime to essentially capitulate and say we will agree to your terms? Like, what does that mean for the overall sanctions architecture? The other thing I want to ask you about is this continuous disruption in

communications in and around the straight of Hormuz. We heard from Shell that this could be a problem because the tankers are literally getting too close to each other. Too hit a week ago. Yeah, exactly. And so what do you see as the threat there and what can be done about it? I think this is what is going to be so important in the next couple days. Is this the ceiling? Was firing six missiles at Qatar the way the Iranians are like, we're done? Is that a sign of capitulation? Do they continue the exchange fire with the Israelis? Are they not looking to do anything in the energy space? But we do know they have been jamming ship transponders. They have been raising risks of potential collisions. It's not bilateral, though. We're looking at Israel,

which continues to pound Iran. Iran is pounding Israel. And that ratchets up tension. even if it's not directly with the United States. 100%. And we don't have any indication yet whether we are off ramping that ongoing Israel-Iran exchange. And we focus so much on oil. I understand that. But the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is almost more important for liquefied natural gas than it is for oil. Think about the European.

LNG. And guess who's the biggest single exporter of LNG in the world? Qatar. 100%. Qatar. So Qatar's entire economic model is based on revenue from selling. LNG from a port or ports. I've been to them in Qatar. That's it. If that goes at risk, there's no way that the Middle East or the Gulf states are going to allow their economic

model to your point in the past hour to be at risk. Well, Brian, just think about, like, let's go back to a week when we had the exchange of fire on energy infrastructure in this war, we had South Pars gas field targeted by the Israelis. Now, that is connected. That's the... It's basically the It's the Iranian field you gave the name, but it's the same field the Qataris use. Same gas. This is not, this is not export. It goes under the Persian Gulf. The Iranians are not exporting.

It's used for domestic use. But again, like that is a major, it's one of the largest global fields. And the question is, again, for the Qataris, they absolutely want to be able to tell investors, this is a safe place to do business. One more thing. And you've seen this firsthand, I know, but you have these Middle Eastern countries who want to move beyond oil as their primary reliance for their economies. They have been focused on expanding tourism, and you're seeing it throughout the United Arab Emirates, you're seeing it in Oman,

you're seeing it in Bahrain. And the question is, if you have countries now shutting down their airspace, you don't have passenger planes coming in and out, will we start to see rising cancellations, massive decline in bookings, will it affect the cruise lines? I've got those questions out. I don't have answers yet, but it's something I think very, Some airlines have already suspended flights to key countries in the region. And so the question is, again, everybody hopes that this is the ceiling, that this is essentially Iran signaling, we're done, let's off ramp this. But if this continues, obviously it raises whole issues for tourism. Are people going to vacation there if they feel the region is unsafe?

That is why there is an effort, a full diplomatic press from these Gulf states to try to get a resolution. And it's all happening, by the way, as the price of oil is down about 5 to 6%. I will remind our viewers what we talked about before. The price that people pay for the actual barrel may not be the same as the futures price that we're showing on the screen because the actual barrel has a lot of other costs put into it. Still, the price of oil, look at that. It's unbelievable. Missiles flying over Qatar and Iran a couple days ago, and the price of Brent Crude Halima is down 6.5%.

I think there's also a bet, as one of the people last night talked about, I think there's a faith in a corner of the market that President Trump has successfully escalated to de-escalate. That essentially it's the peace through strength strategy. And so if people see this, if we get nothing more from Iran, President Trump will take a big win on this. Halima Croft, you joined us all the 1 o'clock. We dragged you back in here, kicking and screaming. We'll let you go talk to clients now. Thank you very much. Thank you.

All right. So coming up, we're going to continue to cover this to Belize. We are watching right now. The markets, Dow Jones, up 301 points. You just saw oil dropping right now at this hour. Power lunch back right after this. All right. Welcome back. We're going to talk more about the Middle Eastern energy story, but there's a lot going on in the markets. In fact, five of the magnificent seven stocks are higher right now. The markets are at session highs. And look at Tesla. It's kind of ironic. We were just talking about oil and thus gasoline. Tesla's obviously used no oil or gasoline needed to make power to run the electric batteries. That aside, Tesla rolling out self-driving, the robotaxies. Tesla's stock right now is up 9%. Meta and Microsoft Contessa are both up 2%. The market today sending a very loud and clear message, which is they're not that worried about Iran or the Middle East. Stocks up, oiled down. Go figure. All right. In the last hour,

we've seen reports that Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against a U.S. U.S. base in Qatar. Let's see how Washington is reacting to these headlines. Megan Kinsella is following the latest for us from Washington. Megan, what do you have? Hey, Conteza, so wrapping up here, everything latest that we have, all that we have confirmed in a very fast-moving story in the Middle East just now. I can say a U.S. official has confirmed that the Al-UD-S-run air base in Qatar was targeted by both short and long-range missiles that originated from Iran. There were no reports of any casualties, no deaths from that attack. And just in the last few moments, the Qatar's interior ministry says that the security situation

now is stable and that there is no cause for concern. So that one does appear to have been headed off and is no longer happening at this time. We're also aware of reports that the Qataris had received a heads up in advance from the Iranians that this attack might be coming. I have not confirmed that reporting. NBC has not confirmed that reporting. But the New York Times is citing three officials saying that Iran symbolically needed to straight back at the U.S. but wanted to do it in a way that allowed all sides and exit ramps

so that they had given this sort of heads up. Again, not confirmed by NBC, but I will note that the Qatari said the air base had been evacuated ahead of the attack. They said following established security and precautionary measures given tensions in the region that could have contributed to the no deaths, no casualties in that attack. Finally, guys, President Trump has been monitoring potential retaliation not only in Qatar, but also Bahrain and Iraq, according to two White House officials. We know he's been spending this afternoon in the Situation Room watching all of this as it unfolded, potentially more locations as well in addition to those countries. We know for now that airspace has been shut down, at least temporarily in Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq,

in addition to Qatar. But the only confirmed attacks as of now against U.S. forces in the region we're at that Al-U-D Air Base in Qatar, guys. Megan, thank you very much for more on the Middle East tensions rising. Let's bring in Michael O'Hanlon, Director of Foreign Policy Research at the Brookings Institution. All right, we have the markets right now sort of shrugging off the threat that is emerging in the Middle East. What would you say at this hour is the biggest concern, Michael? Greetings. Well, on the up-down of whether to feel relatively hopeful, I would agree with the markets.

But on the spiking the football in the end zone, up 300 points, I would not agree with the markets. These sorts of things, as we learn from history, are not so easily controlled. And there are still multiple additional question marks about Iran's next moves, including whether it enters into negotiations on its nuclear program, and I'm doubtful about that, whether it still has a lot of centrifuges left that survived our attacks. And I think there's a decent chance that they did. And then, of course, as Vice President Vance mentioned the other day, we have no reason to think that we destroyed any of the highly enriched uranium stock. So the whole future of Iran's nuclear program is still something that should worry markets maybe a little bit more than today's celebration would imply.

When you're looking at the developments that we're saying where you've got airspace being shut down in several other Middle Eastern countries, you have missiles being launched toward American air bases. is. And this sense, and I brought this up in the last segment with Halima Croft, that these Middle Eastern countries have really put a lot of investment into trying to alter their reliance on oil as the basis of their economies and try to encourage tourism. When you shut down airspace and tourists cannot get in and out, that tends to dampen enthusiasm for those places as a destination. How much influence do they have with Iran? Well, it's a good question. As you know, they've been trying to improve relationships. overall, compared to at least what they had been. But in some ways, what Iran's doing with this

attack, I think, is just doing something. It has to retaliate in some way, as you were just saying, but also it's telling us and the Gulf states the would-be tourist destinations of the future what Iran could do more of if it so chose. And so, you know, if American and Israeli attacks continue or if the demands on Iran at negotiations are too extreme or what have you, Iran has reminded us as if we needed the reminder that these kinds of attacks could be carried out at a low level over a period of many days or weeks or months like the Houthi rebels and the Red Sea. And I don't know what the state of geography is, the United States, what they teach now in high school. But having been to the region many times, Michael, I think most people would be shocked how narrow it is, how it's tight it is, right? You've got Kuwait, you've got Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Oman.

You could literally drive between Kuwait and Oman. in one day. They're that close. And Iran is kind of sitting off to the side. My point is not a geography lesson. It's simply to say, these are all, I think, to contest as points, easy targets. They're very, very close. And even if they're not intentional targets, it's easy to get mistargeted.

It's easy for a missile to be misfired, even with modern technology. I've swam, swam, swam. whatever, in the Persian Gulf, if you're in Dubai on a clear day, you can see Iran. I mean, it's that, the Strait of Hormuzlake is 20 miles wide, but there's islands and stuff in there. But it's really just like a three mile long, ship air wide shipping channel. This is all, we're going to need the Gulf region probably led by the Saudis, because they're the de facto, certainly powerhouse and politically and economic powerhouse in the region to take charge. or they not and basically bring everybody into a room and say knock it off? Yeah.

Also, there are some military implications to what you just said with your very good geography lesson. And one of them explains why we don't like to send aircraft carriers into the Persian call because they're too close to potential threats that we may not have time to respond to or shoot down. Another concern would be that if Iran decides to mess with the Strait of Hormuz and boat traffic through there, even with intermittent attacks, we can't really. stop that, short of going into Iran with ground forces. I'm not predicting any such scenario, but, you know, we've all seen enough wars happen in our lifetimes to know that things can start small and grow. And that kind of a scenario is one of the reasons why I would not be,

you know, getting giddy about today's developments. Michael O'Hanlon, thank you so much for joining us and weighing in on the market moves as well as the tensions in the Middle East. Appreciate your expertise. My pleasure. Thank you. All right, a lot more to do. And up next, the key mover in the telehealth space. We'll also explain what telehealth is, because I don't know. More power lunch right after this. All right, the Middle East is not the only thing

that is going on. Hems and hers is down 31%. This would be the worst day ever for this stock. All right, so what exactly is happening here? Well, there's a lot going on, but this could be the beginning of what could be a massive fight in the pharmaceutical space. In April, November,

Novo Nortis partnered with Hymns and hers, allowing Hymns to sell its blockbuster weight loss injection, Wigovi. However, Hymns has continued to also sell its own compounded weight loss drug as well. Basically, you cut down the efficacy to be able to sell more. You can do that, contestant. If there's like an emergency declaration on a shortage, correct? You can compound the drug, and for many of the compounding pharmacies, that was a permission that was granted because all these, right. That's right. Well, today, Novo Nordisk ended that partnership. That's, by the way, choice legal words for Hymns and hers as well.

And investors are clearly worried that this could be a long-term problem for the Hymns business model. Our friend Herb Greenberg was going to join us today. Hopefully we'll get him on tomorrow. Back in February, Herb raised a red flag on Hymns saying the stock price was unsustainable. Listen. Their underlying business, erectile dysfunction drugs, baldness drugs, that business is going like this. That business is not going like this the way it used to. So if the GLP-1s start to lose steam or somehow they can't sell these drugs, which is what the FDA is sort of wrestling with

them. Therein you have a problem. Therein lies the risk. Herb nailed it. And it seems like that's the exact kind of problem that he was warning about. It is worth noting. Hymns is still done very well. The stock has soared up 98% in 12 months, but today, Contessa, a bad day. Well, and if they can't sell Wagovi, the official drug from Nobu Nordisk, the question is, what happens to other, you know, are other companies going to yank their drugs and the permission to sell them through this telehealth partnership? We interviewed the CEO of I Lili at their headquarters, about a year and a half, two years ago, whenever it was in Indianapolis. And I didn't fully understand any of this stuff, not my world. But, but, but the

But the idea basically is you have a bowl of Cheerios, and if I take half the bowl out and put it in a second bowl, now I have two bowls of Cheerios that are half full, but now I can feed two people theoretically. They won't get as much. That's the idea of compounding, right? Not necessarily. Compounding doesn't necessarily mean diluting the drug. It just means you're formulating it yourself. So, and compounding pharmacies do this for thyroid medicine, estrogen. I think it does mean you're diluting the drug. Not necessarily. It just, but it just, you're formulating it. It just. means that the pharmacies are going in and they're basically manufacturing it themselves. Are they diluting it? That may be one of the allegations against Hems and HERS. I'm not sure about that, but it doesn't necessarily mean that. And a lot of compounding happens under the auspices and the authority of the FDA and things like that. So, you know, in many cases, compounding is a good thing in a special... Well, I'll just say, there it is. Over one month into the collaboration, Hems and hers, this is Novo Nordist official statement, has failed to adhere to the law which prohibits mass sales of compounded drugs under the false guise of personalization and are disseminating deceptive marketing that put patient safety at risk, failed to adhere to the law.

Novo Nordisk is saying effectively, I'm not a lawyer, but I do have a law to agree, that Hymns is outside the law. That's an extremely powerful legal statement right there. We should get hymns on to respond for hers. Well, there you're seeing the share moves right now. Okay, let's move on. And next, markets are higher despite the instability in the Middle East. We're getting expert reaction to what's happening. I mean, really, are investors not pricing in enough risk?

We'll get to that. I head on Power Lunch. Welcome back to Power Lunch. We are watching some fast-moving developments out of the Middle East today, where Oman has shut down its airspace, a market escalation as Iran has targeted a U.S. base in Qatar, according to sources to government sources to CNBC. And look at the market reaction right now. The Dow Industrial is up half a percent.

You've got the S&P 500 up seven-tenths of a percent. The NASDAQ composite up eight-tenths of a percent. And the Russell 2000 up six-tenths of a percent. Oil, meanwhile, is falling down some seven percent now. Look at Brent off by more than 7%. Our next guest is keeping a close eye on the potential closing of the straight of Pormuz that could cause oil prices to surge above $100 a barrel, or at least that's conventional wisdom, but the markets aren't moving, as we might expect them to, joining us to discuss his thoughts.

Jan Van Eck, the CEO of Van Eck associates. It's good to see you. Are investors right now shrugging off what should be real concern about the Middle East? I think the tail risk is really high. I think investors have it nailed, actually. Iran has lost control over its airspace through what Israel has done over the last couple of weeks. So instead of, you know, the short-term impacts, I think we should look at this as a power vacuum. And what are other people potentially doing in the region like Turkey, like Russia?

Because with Iran so weak, we just don't want the kind of mix to change too much in the Mideast. Are you surprised by what you're seeing with the markets today? this, you know, it's not a radical move higher, not a radical rally, but optimistic potentially. And in oil, this dramatic decline. Yeah, I'm not surprised by oil, right? But what I'm really surprised by is gold and the dollar. I mean, usually in this kind of environment, and with the Trump officials on TV, like, you'd think the dollar would be rallying, right?

And you're not seeing that. Gold is actually up on the day. It's up a third of percent right now. Yeah, but it's up on it. You're not surprised by oil down 6%. No. Why not? Because the base case, you've got this complete, Iran has lost control of its airspace, right?

So that is just just unbelievable power vacuum in the region. Them attacking Qatar, Qatar is their closest ally in the region. Well, they attack the U.S. air base in Qatar. And the idea that they gave us heads up, we're going to do it. Hey, we're going to do it. You know we're going to do it and get the missiles in place so they can run the new. video, look, we attacked the Great Satan, whatever it might be. Your 2025 outlook was at the doorstep of a reckoning, which you wrote back in December. Yeah. That's a pretty big term.

What's the reckoning? It hasn't happened yet, but I do think that the weaker dollar is a sign of this, which is effectively U.S. is spending too much money. Its debt levels are growing too much. And the question is, would the 10-year react? Now, it has not reacted so far. Timing. It did for like two weeks. It did for two weeks. No, but literally, for two weeks, the tenure popped down to three and a half, three point six. Mortgage rates fell. A lot of mortgage brokers were very happy. And then it shot back up.

It was like the weirdest two week period. But in the longer term, the dollar is weaker, right? Investors are benefiting from that weaker dollar if they own international holding. So the direction of the trend, I think, continues. And gold is strengthening on a day like that. That's all the same kind of narrative, which is people are a little bit on the margin, less eager to hold U.S. assets. Can we talk a little bit about crypto as a safe haven? You're seeing Bitcoin up 4% today. It's at $103,171 or so. Even bigger moves in Ether and Salana. Salana's up 7.5%. Dogecoin is up

6.3%. What do you make into the crypto space? I mean, it's kind of tracking the NASDAQ right now, because they sold off over the weekend, right, because people could liquidate assets. And now you're a recovery today, but relative to Friday's movement, Bitcoin's actually down a little bit, and the other cryptos are off as well. You know, that's sort of, it's sort of you can't explain it on a day-to-day basis. Where are, so you're known for your creation of ETFs, right? And you just got a Lifetime Achievement Award last year. Congratulations. Thanks, fine. By the way, you make fantastic ties. Every year, they come out with a thematic tie, a necktie. And you have a collection? Well, no. Sometimes it'll be like Jerome Powell or a,

a pig with a euro on it or the Greek debt crisis, whatever it is. Last year was AI. This year it's nuclear. I was going to say, so what would be, can you give us a preview into the vet? Because that's kind of where your head is at is also the tie. Nuclear. Nuclear is doing great. I mean, that's, I mean, look, we have a bipartisan consensus last year that that is an important power source for the U.S. We know the- amazing how it changed.

It is. I mean, New York, can we just talk about this? New York State where you live. You have multiple homes all over the state. New York State closed Indian Point nuclear plant four years ago. And now New York State today announced that it wants to build a new nuclear plant. After closing a nuclear, I think I just broke some news to you. You did, yes.

Think about that. We're going to shut this down. Trump is pushing nuclear super hard, right? So he held that wind farm off New York State hostage, the federal funding of that. And you knew he was getting something in return, and that's the drip of news. They also want to open up the natural gas pipelines into the North Carolina. And I appreciate that. I live in New York State. I don't like playing high electricity rates either. So that's positive for New York consumers.

Well, it's been a pretty positive chat, I would say, on a day when we have a lot of breaking news from the Middle East. Yon, thank you very much for joining us. Appreciate that. Yon Vanek of Vanek Associates. Power lunch. We'll be right back. Crypto Watch is sponsored by Crypto.com. Crypto.com is America's premier crypto platform. Getting in some news on Amgen results for its weight loss treatment in Angelica Peebles is following that. Hi, Angelica. Hey, Contessa, that's right.

So Amgen today is presenting the results for a phase two trial for its experimental obesity drug called Maritide. Now, we knew going into this meeting that the drug helped people lose about 20% of their body weight on average. But investors right now are getting a closer look at some of the side effects. That's a big concern here, right, with all of these GLP1 drugs. And it looks like this drug causes a significant amount of nausea vomiting, some of those unpleasant GI side effects. Now, the company is saying that they're taking that into account and they have a plan for their phase three that they've already started that will help people start with lower doses and gradually increase their dose over time. So that could help. But take a look, that's docked down about 7% right now.

Clearly some concern about how likely this drug has a chance to succeed if it were to reach the market, guys. All right, Angelica, thank you for that. And in the meantime, we did want to update the story that we brought you earlier about Hymns and hers. We discussed Novo Nordis ending its partnership with Hymns, and the CEO of Hems has spoken out on X, writing, we are disappointed to see Novo Nordisk management misleading the public. In recent weeks, Novo Nordisk's commercial team increasingly pressured us to control clinical standards and steer patients to Wagovi, regardless of whether it was clinically best for patients. We refuse to be strong-armed by any pharmaceutical companies' anti-competitive demands

that infringe on the independent decision-making of providers and limit patient choice in the event that this keeps continuing. I know your husband's a lawyer. People always ask me, why did you go to law school? You're so talented and handsome. What you do is amazing. They'd say that so much. Actually, I just made it the last part. But you know what I say? Because it's career insurance.

Because the one thing that's constant is lawsuits. And now it's Hems and Novo, swiping at each other. The lawyers are going to get involved. And the lawyers always win. That's it. Meantime, the growing Middle East conflict, putting energy, aviation, cybersecurity, all in focus. And guess what, Contessa, insurance firms are starting to take notice. That story is next. Welcome back. Lloyd's Joint War Committee met last week before the U.S. strikes against Iran and opted at that time to keep the status quo for its listed areas, or the areas it says are of concern.

It already includes the Red Sea in the Persian Gulf, and the committee concluded the situation is concerning, but the outcome is not clear. There's been no declaration of war. The head of aviation and Marine for Lloyd's Market Association told me that ships already are notifying insurers how they're navigating that region, and the number of Western ships in the Red Sea

has noticeably declined. Marine insurance is rising significantly in the region. Shippers paying 60 to 70 percent more than the previous month, according to global broker and marine insurer Marsh. And aviation insurance is likely going to rise because you have zones in the Middle East or North Africa that might be excluded entirely from reinsurance coverage. And of course, we're already seeing a large number of flight cancellations and Qatar shutting down its airspace. Most cyber insurance policies exclude coverage for state-sponsored attacks, and that has the potential of

leading to costly litigation over years if insurers deny claims and then policyholders sue. Insurers and brokers, though, might have a real opportunity here because risk and volatility send companies searching for cover, and they can find it with syndicates of Lloyds of London, Chubb, AIG, Allianz, ASE, ASE, ASE, ASE, A, ASE, A, AXA, Swiss Re, and Munich Re are the reinsurers and Evers group, among some others. And then there's country-sponsored syndicates as well that are going to be watching how do you price risk in this situation? Well, we're finding out real-time missiles flying into Doha, Qatar, U.S. shooting them down, missiles flying into Tehran, Tel Aviv, and the markets up.

Oil is down. Remarkable. Thanks for being with us. Thank you for having me. And thanks for watching, Power Lunch, everybody. Closing bell starts right now.