Power Lunch - The market waits for Fed Day 12/9/25

Episode Date: December 9, 2025

Goldman Sachs CFO Denis Coleman joins with Leslie Picker. Former Meta COO Sheryl Sandberg discusses women in corporate America and AI with Julia Boorstin. And where do natural gas prices go from here? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are a little bit higher as the world awaits tomorrow's decision of the Federal Reserve Energy, the outperformer. Welcome to Power Lunch, everybody. Next to Kelly, I am Brian, and we are going to dive right into the markets. We've got a huge guest right at the top. Joe LaVorna of the White House is here on set. We'll talk about the economy, inflation, debts, deficits, and more. A lot to discuss.

stop there because we're also going to hear from the CFO of Goldman Sachs a little bit later this hour. That stock, Brian, not just up 40 percent this year, up 40 percent for the second year in a row. So as the financials are flying, we'll check in with him, especially after JP Morgan is selling off on some concerns in their commentary earlier. And if that was not all, we are not done yet. Cheryl Sandberg, former C.O.O.O. Facebook out to discuss a new kind of scary report from leanin.org and McKenzie about women in the workplace and how they may be falling behind an exclusive conversation with Cheryl coming up in minutes. Welcome, everybody. Thank you very much for joining us. Hope you having a great. We used to call it Tuesday. Now we call it

Pre-Fed Day. Right? What did you, did you get me anything for pre-fed? I bring chocolate every day. Bring chocolate? I don't get any, but she brings chocolate every day. So let's jump right in because, as you know, in just under 24 hours time, the Federal Reserve will make a decision on interest rates. it's pretty much everybody out there, according to the CME Fed tool, Steve Leishman and others, expects that we will get a quarter point interest rate cut. But it's not just about the cut. It's about what the Fed says. What do they indicate about the months and the meetings ahead?

Are there going to be any dissents? And who, of course, might replace one Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Well, somebody who may know the answer to all that. Anne Moore, joining us on set, Joe Livorna, he is counselor to Scott Bessett, Treasury Secretary of these fine, the United States. Happy Pre-Fed Day, Joe. Thanks for joining us. Happy Tuesday. Yes, or Tuesday.

What is your expectation from the Fed, and then what would your hope from the Fed be if they are not the same thing? The more interesting question, Brian, is where is neutral? Where is the neutral rate? And the neutral rate is probably a lot lower than where many in the market think, because you look at the Fed's forecast and where interest-sensitive activity has been, rates should be lower. as President Trump has said, he actually like rates significantly lower, and you might actually need rates to be stimulative to get those old economy sectors moving. The economy's doing very well, but rates are high.

Is the economy doing very well? It is. I mean, in the second quarter, we grew through eight. I take out federal group. It was four and a half. Atlanta Fed's looking for growth at three and a half, maybe four percent, in the third quarter. We'll see what happens.

The data we got this morning on hiring intentions from the NFIB was excellent. Last week, claims fell to a multi-year, low. So, yeah, there's a lot of good things happening. And, of course, all the effects of the Trump policies, last and certainly not least, have yet to kick in. So you're going to get a cap X boom, which we're seeing, a building boom on the structures, because we've got full expensing. Growth should be great next year, 3% plus. I don't know if you heard Steve Whiting last hour, but he warned that if we cut rates from here too much, you know, more than we really ought to, that it would stoke a real bubble in a... He said, look, the investment, the debt that

these companies are raising right now, okay, it's meaningful. But he said, if rates went, meaningfully lower, they would be issuing way more debt. This would fuel a much bigger, he thinks, kind of frothy move, a craze to some extent around AI. Look, the earnings in the third quarter up over 13% in the S&P year on year, and it was broadening out. When you look at the GDP accounts, it's not just AI, it's actually business equipment, transportation, industrial equipment. I mean, you're getting broad-based gains in spending. AI is part of it. A lot of the AI, too, is business-to-business, which is technically not part of GDP. Look, rates are high based on the Fed's own calculation. If you look at what monetary

policymakers thought when they came into this year, early in the year when tariffs were in place, we're running under 2% on goods prices. The inflation we've got is in services. Those prices will come down because we're seeing rents drop precipitously. I think that a large part is through the border being sealed, a lot of housing supply effectively coming back online. So the inflation outlook to me is great. And my push back to the street would be, look, the yield curve is still very, very flat. That's not a sign of inflation. inflation expectations are very well anchored. And if we have this Trumpian Cappex boom, historically, it's been very disinflationary. When I was on the road ahead of the election, went to five states, all the sort of the swing

counties. Everybody pretty much that we talked to talked about the two eyes, immigration and inflation. They kind of go together, to your point, okay? Some would argue that the immigration policy might raise inflation because there are simply fewer workers available for certain jobs. You can address that. But also talk about inflation. We know the president has talked about affordability. Inflation spiked during COVID in large part because you had to pay workers more to come back to work. People aren't going to take lower salaries. That would imply to me, Joe, and probably to Kelly and even yourself, I guess, that that is a stickiness of which I don't know what policy could lower? Well, here's the thing. You mentioned the eyes. Secretary Besson mentioned

the eyes, and let's add investment, because investment spending has been very strong. We're at a multi-decade-half high, decade and a half high in terms of cap-x through the first part of the year that will increase this economy's supply-side potential. And as it relates to things like affordability, which really is not the best word, if you look at the bill, the working families tax cut, otherwise known as the one big, beautiful bill, it will essentially raise wages through the capital investment through the structures in the building, 100% expensing for factories. I don't think people realize this. Normally, the depreciation on that is almost 40 years. You're going to have to depreciate a factory or you'll be able to in the year that you do,

and it expires in 28. So that will create high-paying jobs in building those factories, the workers that work in those factories, love high-paying jobs. And then the no-tax on tips in overtime, that will also raise after-tax wages. So you deal with cost-of-living issues in part by raising wages. And what we've seen, Brian, is actually through the first nine months of the year, is real blue-collar wages. They're up 1%. And that's one of the strongest readings for any new administration on record. So we're making progress. A lot of the inflation's embedded because of the prior administration. We just need a little bit more time, gas prices at almost a five-year low. I mean, there's a lot of good things happening, and the president's going to get on the road

and is going to mark in that as soon as today. Why do you think bond yields have been on, I call a revolt? I don't know what a small-scale version of a revolt is. I think it's, well, I'll tell you what the rising. in uprising. So, Kelly, the answer is, is that we sell-off in yields from the lows. And it's not a big sell-off. I mean, up until the last couple of days, I mean, it was the best performing and think it still is, the best-performing bond market in the world, the industrial bond market. People thought rates were going to go to 5 percent because people were going to be selling everything. The backup in years we've had recently, has all been in real yields. It's not been inflation expectations. And if you get 3 percent growth like we had in President Trump's first term, then you would expect yields to rise. The economy's going to improve. The demand for capital is increasing. That should mean high. higher rates all else equal, but it doesn't mean the short rate should be where it is because you need a normal slope yield curve, and that yield curve is still very, very flat. Real quick, and just on a slightly won't know, but you opened with it, so I just want to circle back to it on the neutral rate, 2.8% core PCE, yes or no?

What's that? When you say 2.8% where we are now? No, well, I think inflation's a lagging indicator, so as Gretzky famously said, you skate to where the puck is going. We think there's great reasons why inflation's going back to 2%, and that means that rates should be much lower. Exactly. So just for those to follow the conversation, if inflation stays around 2.8 or 3%, then rates should be where they are now, basically. But if it's falling by a point, then you would see room to cut the overnight rate by up to a point to follow. Oh, easy, yeah, if not more.

And again, our policies are very different than the prior administration's policies. And we have, you know, one administration before to look at, in the first administration, Trump, and then you saw inflation move low. It didn't pick up. And this productivity boom, this capital-led productivity boom, the deregulation and the energy of All those things should foster much lower prices. I'd be very, I'd be stunned if we're stuck at 2.8. We should go lower. I think we will.

Well, the bond market's going to do, as you know, from your previous life. The bond market's going to do what the bond market wants to do. And we keep talking about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. But bond yields have, to Kelly's point, have either stayed steady or even gone up. Now, I get it. You factor inflation, maybe not. But we're not at three and a half percent on the tenure, Joe. To your point, where should the 10-year bond yield be right now?

The 10-year bond yield, if given where I think the neutral rate is, then the 10-year bond yield should be under 4%. And that could be very doable in a 3.99 or like 301? No, well, look, if you think the neutral rate is around 2%, 2.5%, which I think to me is very reasonable. It's similar to where we were, similar to where we were in the first Trump administration. We had rising productivity, nearly 3% growth, 3.5% growth before COVID hit. inflation was low and falling, then you can get a 10-year yield around 350.

350. And that would bring mortgage rates down. Home affordability has been a big issue, not only in America, but for the White House. Is there an administration policy that could bring the cost of housing down because it's driving people? Sure. The capital gains issue that we heard from Ryan. Well, the president is looking at all things and takes these issues very seriously. But as I said, when you look at housing affordability, it's interest rates, interest rates, rates are declining. We expect them to fall because inflation is going to drop based on the president's policies. It's home prices and its income. Now, on the income side, as I mentioned, higher capex, building a factories, no tax on tips, and overtime. Those products, those factors

will lift your wages, your after-tax wages will go up, so you're increasing income. So you're going to see people be able to afford those homes that they've been blocked out the last four years. Kind of a small detail, but maybe it's not so small. I mean, should they raise the level of capital gains exemption on home sale to, you know, look, I would love anything on the supply side, indexing capital gains to inflation, getting trapped capital out so that the market frees itself up. I mean, those are all wonderful things that, you know, people in the Republican party have talked about. Brian Surnan brought up yesterday on the show. Of course, he's a leading real estate, not just agent, but he's in 14 different metro areas. He said the capital gains

exclusion on selling a home has not been increased since 1997, which I don't need to tell you, was almost 30 years ago and that we need to raise that up a lot so people, because people may face a huge tax bill by selling a home they've been in for 30 or 40 years. So they're disincentivized to sell their home and move. Would this administration be in favor of lifting that capital gains exemption? I mean, look, the president's looking at all things. I don't sure we're at the point yet we're ready to sort of back legislation, which isn't there. But you talk about affordability. the president takes this broad issue very seriously. And you mentioned immigration earlier.

I mean, we've lost a significant amount of people. A lot of illegal immigrants have left the country. That is going to free up housing slack, housing capacity, shelter. Rents are falling very dramatically for new rents when you look at the BLS data. So when you look at inflation, you mention 2A, 3% plus inflation has been in services, Brian. The goods prices have been under 2%. So the fact that the president has controlled the border. There's now housing apartments that will now be able to be accessed by people,

and bring those costs down quite significantly. It's all going to be just fine. That's the message, you know, lower rates. I don't think it's going to be fine. I think, you know, we're on the cusp of, you know, the president talks about a golden error. I mean, I think we could, there's this productivity, stuff going on, AI. The world is that you're a Denny's term, you know. Yeah, but I mean, the president's an optimist, and he believes in America,

and I just think the future is great, and we're putting policies in place to lift all Americans' income and standard of life. But it sounds like a lot of that is going to be done or will be done or is being done via the tax code. Via the tax code, but again, also from the deregulatory side, energy abundance, very important, trying to, you know, one new rule comes in, 10 rules or whatever it is come out. I mean, there's a lot of things that the administration is doing, prudent business-friendly legislation, a regulation that allows companies to thrive and to hire. And I mentioned earlier, you know, hiring intentions by NFIB jumped four points this month, the highest readings in three years.

Their plans to raise compensation rose five points this morning. And by the way, on prices, they're not planning on lifting prices. So that's all really good news. So I'd say it's better than fine, Kelly. I think, look, we're going to accelerate. 26 is going to be a boom year. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you. On set. Safe trip back home to D.C. On Fed Eve. And as we were talking about... Tuesday, as he calls it. That's right.

Like, he hasn't even... It's like Christmas. No. The 10-year treasury yield has jumped to nearly 4.2% from below 4%. coming into the last couple of weeks and into this decision. Rick Santelli is standing by with more, Rick, on what the market says is going on here. Yeah, you know, I look at it.

It's not the issue that we've gone from under four to where we're at. The issue is for all of this year, we spent eight closes under 4%. We settled at 457 last year. We're currently at 419. The reality is maybe Treasury yields had the best year since 20. but it doesn't compare the returns and equities. Now look at, let's stick with only facts. Today we had jolts, 7,670,000.

Since January of 24, there's been 22 releases of jolts. And seven of them this year, this number's higher than. Seven of them last year, this number's higher than. This number is higher than 63% of the readings since January of 24. before. We've seen jobless claims hovering at levels we haven't seen almost since 1970. Now, if you look at a tenure today, we had an auction. And the auction was a C-plus, but rates are going higher. And if you open it up, September 1st, we're on pace for the highest yield closed in six weeks. The reality here is, is that maybe the economy is going to do great. And the

big, beautiful bill, I like it. But at the end of the day, the compounding nature of Biden-Ary inflation is still with us. Brian, back to you. Rick Santelli, lots of dive into there, but we'll save it for another day, Rick. Thank you very much. All right, coming up here after the break, why the Nvidia chip sales to China story may not quite be as bullish as some might think. Take around. All right, time now for your power check, and today we're going to look at the stock story that we referenced just ahead of the break. We're talking, of course, about NVIDIA. Now, the stock's not doing a whole lot today, but forget about today.

NVIDIA is headed toward its third straight, positive year. This comes in part after the Trump administration allows the country. company to sell its H-200 chips to approved customers in China, but only if the United States gets a 25% cut, and it's only to approve customers, and the chip is two years old. But outside of that, is Nvidia, after three years of printing money, still a name that you should own. Let's talk about that and more with Ellen Hazen. She is Chief Market Strategist at FL Putnam Investment and is on set with us.

Ellen, good to see you again. to be here. I know Nvidia is a core holding of yours. It is. Any change or plans to change that? We think that this is good news for NVIDIA, as has been discussed, but I think it's pretty minor in the grand scheme of things, right? Shen San Juan has been on record saying that it could add three and a half billion per quarter in revenue, and that adds up to a few percent in earnings growth, and that's if even China is going to buy it. So there are a lot of ifs there for the reasons that you're talking about as well as some others. So yes, we still like it. The AI trade continues to go strong. Invita is not the only name. There are other ways to play it. And so this

is a positive, but it's pretty modest in the grand scheme. Is another way to play it the company that physically makes the chips. Now, Invidia, they have all the engineering and design genius. Taiwan Semi is actually the company that physically manufactures the chips. Do you own or want to own Taiwan Semi? 100%. So, yes. Yes. So, yes. Yes, we've owned Taiwan Semi for quite a while. I've known that company since it went public back in the 90s, and it's a phenomenal company. They used to have competition in the foundry business,

and then for the last decade or so, the peers have really fallen away so that nobody's near them with respect to their process technology. So it's absolutely a good way to play it. And on top of that, if NVIDIA does begin to lose, for example, to the Google TPUs or others, then you still have TSM manufacturing the chips. Do you share the overarching concerns about kind of these companies doing too well?

I hesitate to even say valuations are too high when Nvidia is trading it 26 times, but, you know, Google's been on a nice run. The market cap sizes are so big. Do you have any qualms about that? Of course. I cut my teeth in the tech bubble. I was a tech analyst in the 90s, and so that's very much imprinted on me and on our team. So that's something that we're looking at all the time, Kelly.

What I would say, though, is it's different for the reasons that everybody has talked about. Number one, it's mostly not debt financed, although we are seeing some of these circular revenue deals around the margin, and we are seeing some debt financing like by Oracle, but most of it is not debt financed. The earnings are still going up. The valuations are not that high, and if you look at what the stock growth has been, it has really been very little PE expansion, price to earnings multiple expansion. It's been mostly earnings growth.

I'm told multiples are even down slightly from where they were three years ago for the group. Indeed, indeed. And the way I think about it is if you look at investing in general, I can have a spreadsheet and try to predict earnings like everybody else out there. And sure, I do that. But a lot of it is also looking at human behavior. So our multiple is going to go up or down, right? So looking at human behavior is a key part of investing. And I would say the same thing applies with respect to the AI capital spending. All these guys, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, and all of them, I believe that they believe it's existential for their companies to continue spending. But what does that mean for you as an investor? Ultimately, does that, is that a story? Like, you dance while the music's playing, but then you have to get out before it stops. Exactly. I think that's right.

And that's a dangerous precedent because we all know what happened with Citigroup after that comment. But at the same time, I think, is there going to be a bubble? Yes, there is almost certainly going to be a bubble because the incentives are aligned for overspending, as is true with every new technology, right, and every capital. But maybe the bubble won't be with those names. That's what people argue. There'll be a bubble. There'll be companies that try to attach themselves to AI.

They already are. We get PR pitches for these companies. You should interview this company because they were just, they used to make clothes, but now they're making invidia chips. That means ridiculous. It's like when companies used to add.com to the end of their name back in the tech bubble. Now they said AI. Yes, of course.

It's fell Brian without AI. Thanks for laughing at that. Except it's a terrible problem. I was going to say it's backwards. Well, I didn't say which order. Or Sullivan. Oh, goodness. But you're staying in, and do you worry about that timing for when you get out?

Yeah, so what we're looking at is a lot of different indicators, a mosaic of indicators. So we're looking at debt levels. We're looking at capacity utilization of the data centers. We're looking at how fast the data centers are being built. One of the things we're looking at, though, is just as a percent of GDP, it's nowhere near what the railroads were. It's nowhere near what the dot-com was. It's nowhere near what the housing bubble was. So is it 1.3, 1.4% of GDP?

Yes. Is that a big number? Yes. Is it still growing? Yes, it's going to get bigger. Okay. But it's not to the scale of prior bubbles. And so we're watching it, of course, because everything comes to an end.

Just come on and tell us when you think. I want you to ring the bell at the top. There we go. By the way, you can't spell Mosaic without AISA about that either. AI, Mosaic for your dashboard of things to watch. Ellen, thanks. Thank you for now. Ellen Haysen.

Goldman's shares have been gliding up this year more than 50%, which outperforms Apple. and all the big banks except for City. Leslie Picker is sitting down with the Goldman CFO right after this break. Stay with us. Welcome back. Goldman Sachs is hitting another record intraday high. Look at these gains. It's up 52% this year.

If that holds, if it's more than 50%, it'll be Goldman's best year. it'll be Goldman's best year since 2009, and that was when it was rebounding from the financial crisis. Leslie Picker is out of their financial services conference in New York City with the CFO, Dennis Coleman. It's great to see you both. Leslie, take it away.

Thank you, Kelly, and thank you, Dennis. 54% gains year-to-date. A lot of that based on optimism about the overall capital markets environment. You said on your presentation earlier today at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference where we're at right now, that the industry is expected to have its second biggest M&A year in history.

How much of that upswing is Goldman capturing, and do you see it following through into 2026? Leslie, thank you very much for being here. This is our 36th financials conference. We have record attendance across issuing and investing clients, so I'm very pleased to have you. We're definitely optimistic. The facts are that this should be the second highest year for announced M&A volume. We've already announced $1.5 trillion of M&A activity year-to-date.

And if I think about the level of engagement that we're seeing from our clients and the type of activity and ideas that they are generating, my expectations are that we will see that momentum continue into 2006. Now, a big piece of that puzzle that hadn't really been turned on for much of the year was the sponsor activity, the private equity community. We hadn't seen as much. That has changed, that Flip has switched. You said that that's finally picking back up. What's been the big unlock here? and how much does tomorrow's FOMC meeting matter in terms of just financing costs and the level of rates? So, you know, activity by sponsors had been muted the last couple of years.

Combination of them sort of picking their moment to actually monetize assets in their portfolio. We've seen equity markets rally. We've seen a lot of the underlying assets perform, and they're seeing an attractive opportunity to exit some of those portfolio companies. So we've seen a 40% uptick in sponsor activity. It's also the case that the equity markets are open. again. And sometimes that provides better demand tension as they're looking to monetize an asset. They can see whether or not to take it public or whether or not to sell it to a strategic. And so those things working in tandem can sort of be virtuous and unlock, you know, even more

activity. And so you think that will drive 2026 to be potentially even higher than this year? I think 2026 could be a record year for M&A. Wow. Record for M&A. Yeah. And that is incumbent upon, you know, what things holding from the pipeline. Well, if you think about just the mindset of clients right now, this is a moment in time when almost every single company in the world is asking themselves the question, what do we need to do to grow? What are our strategic imperatives? And there is a feeling, there's a sense of optimism, that it could be doable, that it's achievable. And so people are asking what their dream deal is, what's the ideal industry construction, financing markets are open, macroeconomic

backdrop is supportive, regulation has been a bit of a tailwind. So there are a lot of things coming together that created an environment where you can see more strategic activity. Given we've been the number one M&A advisor for 20 years, we're getting a lot of that inquiry and clients are turning to us as their trusted advisor to say, how are we going to actually execute these ideas that we have for our business? Very exciting time. You've been a participant in the deal machine as well. Goldman just announced a $2 billion deal for innovator capital management. That's an ETF sponsor, a $1 billion investment in TRO and a $1 billion for VC firm industry ventures. So clearly a big use of capital for the firm in recent weeks.

Should we expect to see more deals? Well, overall, we're looking to really grow the durable revenue streams within our asset and wealth management business. We have the fifth largest active asset management firm inside of that segment, a leading alternatives platform, and the premier ultra-high-net-worth franchise. And we've been driving the durable revenue growth, which we're now looking to accelerate. And in those three examples, we basically saw opportunities that we could take on board a capability or a segment or a product that would help us accelerate the growth of those durable

revenue streams, each of them sort of a bit bite-sized in nature and important to accelerating growth in asset and wealth management, which is our strategic focus. I think if we see transactions like that, we would continue to consider them, but the bar for something significantly more transformational would be a lot higher. Yeah, and in the meantime, you're also using capital, of course, to invest back in the business, namely an AI. You've recently announced 1GS 3.0, which is a strategic overhaul. with the intent of using AI to operate more efficiently,

what are some of the near-term use cases? And when we hear the word efficiencies in Wall Street, I think a lot of people think of a shrinking of the workforce. Is it fair to interpret that? So for us, this opportunity, which we're thinking as an operating model for the entire firm, is all about driving scale and growth. We're thinking about how can we unlock an acceleration of growth,

huge demand from clients to do more for them, and we need to make sure the firm is positioned to grow alongside them. So we have a number of different work streams that we look at that encompass our data, our technology platforms, our human processes, and then we look to inject AI and generative AI into those processes to see if we can do them more quickly, deliver a better customer experience, improve our profitability, improve risk management, improve resiliency, lots of different objectives, and that really is driving efficiency because we expect to scale the firm and we can improve the way we execute the processes to deliver for clients.

that will enable us to drive more efficiency ultimately throughout the firm. And is it fair in five years to expect Goldman to have fewer employees than it does today? I think the key thing for Goldman Sachs is to make sure we execute for clients and grow the overall firm in its franchise. I expect we'll be able to do that and become more efficient along the way. And I do expect that AI will help us to do that. All right. Dennis Coleman, CFO of Goldman Sachs, appreciate you joining us today. Thanks, Leslie.

All right, guys, I'll send it back to you. And that stock up another percent today. Adding on to what's been a great year, Leslie, thank you very much. All right. Coming up, what the dickens? It's a tale of two commodities. We're going to try to solve the riddle of why gas is up while oil is down. Don't be a scrooge. Stick around. Welcome back and take a look at natural gas prices, which are down sharply again. again today by almost 7%, but keep in mind, this has had a huge run-up, up 47% over the past three months. The commodity is lowered today amid these supply concerns, but prices have

skyrocketed. Another factor that could impact the trade is the expected surge of cold air, which we're already starting to feel in this neck of the woods. There you can see the polar vortex that is expected to hit the Midwest and the Atlantic coast in the coming days. Joining us to break down the trade and what other factors could influence prices is Phil Strebel. He's the chief market strategist at Blue Line. Phil, I have kind of like a running gentleman's bet with a friend in town about which way Nat Gas goes from here because he says based on seasonal patterns and he would know in prior winters, this is going to be a really cold one.

These prices are going to go much higher. You add in the AI demand on data centers and all the like. What do you say about staying long than that gas trade here? Yeah. I mean, I really like that gas over the long term. I mean, net gas price, they are dropping primarily due to an updated weather forecast predicting milder temperatures across the U.S. from the mid to latter part of the month, it's easing some of those concerns about the heating demand. Seasonally, this is a time of year for heightened volatility in the

market. It reprises itself in response to the rate of change on supply and demand. If you look technically going on a longer term scope, August, September, October, natural gas traded between 4 and 450. It was an November 5th breakout that ran it up to the 550 level. And now that 450 breakout level, which was old resistance, should define itself as new support. But back to what you're saying, we've got the high production level. So the near-record net gas production averaging about 109 billion cubic feet per day in December, what happens is is high prices drive more drilling, more supply, then you get a shift in the weather model. It pushes prices down rather violently like what we're seeing today. But one more thing on the long term that

demand natural gas's role with AI, natural gas creates electricity for the grid, primarily by using chemical energy to spin a turbine connected to the generator. So many tech companies and data center developers are building their own dedicated on-site natural gas power plants that supplies almost 40% of all the electricity and AI center. So long-term prices heading higher, I think the floor is being risen, but short-term volatility with weather. Yeah, it could be 35 degrees below the average in certain parts of the Upper Midwest. I mean, that is super cold.

All right, let's switch gears to oil and ExxonMobil, Phil, because ExxonMobil issuing some new longer-term guidance today didn't get a lot of attention, but it is now. ExxonMobil effectively raising its outlook. It now sees earnings growth and surplus-free cash flow by the year 2030. It is raising both by about $5 billion basically over the next five years. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, writing, quote, our transformation helps ensure that in any future market,

environment for decades to come. ExxonMobil will have an important role and deliver substantial shareholder value. And they kind of see Brent crude around 65 bucks. Phil the market clearly likes the news. Exxon shares up 3% today. And it adds to a pretty good run for big oil and stocks lately. Even as the price of oil itself stays flatter goes down, why are we seeing a divergence where the stocks are going up like the XOP ETF is up 4% this year, while oil is down? 2%. I mean, they're just becoming much more and more efficient here. A lot of these companies here, they're in a positive environment at the moment. And yes, oil prices are going down because the persistent role of global over supply, weakening demand on the outlook here, concerns about the

Chinese economy. But the reality is, is those affect the global oil prices and the global profitability of individual companies. I mean, we've seen restored production here in a key oil field in Iraq. That's by prices have fallen about. You know, we've got about a 1% decline here today, but the expectations of the supply glut are really currently outweighing those geopolitics and a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could increase supply by about 2 million barrels per day. If you look at oil by itself as a commodity, I think resistance 60 to 61, support 58, we break there.

We're probably going to retest those lows. But a lot of these companies, they're just getting better at what they do. And that's what's helping support the individual consumer. as far as company's concern. Phil Strebel, Blue Line Futures, Chief Market Strategist, looks warm there, we're warm here, but it's going to get real cold across much of the country very soon, Phil. Thank you very much.

Well, natural gas is not the only commodity that has been hot lately, high-ho silver. It keeps going up, and it is now above $60 an ounce for the first time ever, silver prices, Kelly, this year, have doubled well outperforming stock. Are you going to sing? Silver and gold.

Silver and now we're talking silver instead of gold. But that's the kind of market we're in. Bertha Coombs, what do you have for the CNBC News Update today? Well, no tunes like you, but President Trump is reportedly ramping up pressure on Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky. The Financial Times reports U.S. envoys gave Kiev just days to respond to a proposed U.S.-backed peace agreement that would see Ukraine accept territorial losses in return for unspecified security guarantees. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed a law today that bans federal officials from arresting immigrants near state courthouses, in hospitals, on college campuses, or in daycare facilities. The law also makes it easier to sue agents for alleged violations. It comes after the Trump administration's Operation Midway Blitz in the Chicago area led to more than 3,000 arrests.

And a food and drug administration investigation into whether COVID-19 vaccines cause deaths now includes a look at adults, reportedly. That makes the probe wider than previously known. The FDA investigation appeared earlier to be focused on children. The spokesperson told Bloomberg, the agency is looking at multiple age groups. A number of studies have concluded that COVID vaccines are safe and effective. Kelly? Wow. Thank you very much, Bertha.

Coming up, Julia Borson is sitting down with the former META C-O, Ms. Cheryl Sandberg, to discuss a new report on women in the workplace. We'll also ask her about her views on AI and much more. Stay tuned. That's right ahead. CryptoWatch is sponsored by Crypto.com. premier crypto platform. Welcome back. Well, a new report from lean-in.org, and McKenzie should concern corporate America. It warns that women are losing momentum at work, not for lack of ambition, but maybe for lack of support. Julia Borson, joining us down with San Francisco with Cheryl Sambur, founder of course of Lean In. Julia.

Thanks so much. And Cheryl, thanks so much for joining us here today in your first TV interview in years. I understand you wanted to come on now to talk about these results of this McKinsey-Lienin's study. Why does it look like women are losing ground? Because about half of companies no longer think women's career advancement is a priority. And 21% of companies say it's a low or not a priority at all. And those are the companies that participated in the report. So in many ways, they're the best of them, not the worst.

The thing that most concerns me is that for the first time in 11 years of doing this study, we're seeing a real ambition gap. You ask men and women at the same level, do you want to be promoted? And more men than women are saying yes. And this is what's important. That only happens when they don't get the opportunities men do. For women who get the same stretch assignments, sponsors, mentors, encouragement, that ambition gap completely disappears.

The problem is that women at both ends, of the career spectrum face bigger barriers at the entry level for every hundred men that get promoted, 93 women, 60 black women, 82 Latinas. We never catch up. Now, what about the rise of AI? With AI taking more mid and lower level jobs that women are more likely to hold,

how do you think AI is going to impact women in particular in the workforce? Well, I think we should be concerned. And this report has some troubling early data, which is that at the entry level where people are a lot, get a lot of guidance from their managers, more than 50% more men are being encouraged to use AI tools than women. We know that AI is going to be challenging for jobs, and it's going to be the most challenging for the people that don't know how to use those tools. And so much

like that broken rung at the entry level, if we start encouraging people just a few years into the workforce encouraging more men than women to use it, we are going to see disproportionate impacts. And that would be a real shame for our companies, bad for our economy. Connecting these findings to what's happening culturally right now, there have been so many recent displays, public displays of misogyny, including those revealed in the Epstein files, even including your former mentor. How is that cultural reversal in terms of what seems like a rise in misogyny impacting what's happening in the workplace? I mean, look, I've been in the workforce for four decades. I'm 56. And what I see each time is that we make progress, there's backsliding. We make progress, there's backsliding. I think we're in a really bad moment. The rhetoric is terrible. But, and I really want to be clear on this for the companies out there, that's not an excuse not to do the right thing for the women in your workforce. There are many completely legally appropriate ways of leveling the playing field. So, for example, men, 1% of men get style-based feedback, 66% of women. If companies take the time to identify in advance review criteria, that goes away.

So no matter what the environment is, and we definitely need to fix it, we really need to focus, and that's what this report is on, on companies keeping their commitment to women. Since you left META, the company, as well as many other in Silicon Valley, have rolled back its DEI policies. many of the things you put in place. And META has also gotten rid of some of the teams that you put in place dedicated to platform safety. Right now, do you think META is doing enough

to mitigate potential unintended consequences, especially when AI can have such an amplifying effect? So I care tremendously about online safety. I did for all those years at the company, and I believe there are a lot of people at the company that really have the best of intentions and want to do the right thing. I think these investments need to be made.

And the good news is that AI should make it more effective, not less effective. If you're trying to do something and you have powerful technology behind you, then AI should make it more possible to keep people safe online, not less. Since you left, Mark Zuckerberg, though, has really made a big push into AI. And a lot of investors are concerns that the AI costs are growing faster than revenue is growing. Are you concerned about an AI bubble? So I've been in this valley, Silicon Valley for a while, and I was at Google in the early days and then at Facebook and what's now meta. And this pattern of investing ahead of revenue opportunities is important. You know, if Google, when I was there, had made sure they could cover the cost for search, they wouldn't have invested enough in search that would get enough people to use it, that would improve those results.

So I think investments ahead of revenue make sense. I'm not going to comment on what level. But in the end, there's going to be a business model that covers these costs. There has to be. And there are lots of options for that. And companies, I think, will get this right. So with the rise of AI at Meta and also your other former employer, Google, what would your advice to them be right now, not just about investments,

but about thinking about potential implications and risks of these incredibly powerful tools they're developing? We have to learn from what's happened, right? Every technology that's ever been invented has good uses and bad uses, has good and harm. And the more powerful the technology, the more extreme those can be. So it's on everyone working on building this technology to understand. And that, for me, comes right back to women. Because I believe when there are more women at the table, when our young girls can see female leaders, we are more likely not just to do a better job on business performance,

but to get more of these things right. That's fascinating. Cheryl, thank you so much for joining us. And this Women in the Workplace Report is important reading and perhaps a lot of warnings in here that we should all be taking a look at it. Cheryl Sandberg, thanks so much for joining us and guys, I'm going to send it back over to you.

All right, our thanks to Cheryl. Julia, thank you for that as well. Coming up, this stock just hit an old-time high. It's up 46% in the past 11 trading days alone. We'll reveal the name and break down its remarkable rebound next. Time now to reveal today's mystery chart. Here's a reminder, up 46% in the past 11 sessions, and it is Carvana. That makes it its longest daily win streak since November of 2019.

In less than two weeks, it's set to complete one of the most improbable comebacks ever. It will join the S&P just a few years after Wall Street had declared it all but dead, and they had their reasons. The pandemic sent its business and it stopped. Sox soaring. Sales tripled after COVID-Cent used car prices up, but crashing debt and rate hikes nearly pushed the company into bankruptcy. Shares cratered 98% and were below $4 a share. But investors came back around after they cut costs, and today, Carvana is trading at $454. That's a 9,000% gain over the past three years. Kicker, Carvana is now valued more than the

three Detroit Auto Giants, Brian, which include GM Ford and Stalantis. So if you hodeled, if you bought it low and held on, he made more money than Bitcoin. in Carvana. Wild. Coming up. It doesn't have fun often, but today it did. We'll tell you what it was next.

Hi. We may make history. The XLK is up 12 sessions in a row, Kelly. Tomorrow, if it finishes up today, it could finish down, but if it finishes up today and tomorrow, it will tie the record of longest winning streak at a lucky 13, going back to 2017,

if we go up then on, Thursday, it would be a new record at 14, because 13 plus 1. I think it's another way of illustrating what we know, which is this tech run has been a historic one. That's the XL OK. And it ain't over yet, or is it? Fed decision coming tomorrow. We're done for that.

Thanks for watching. Closing bell starts right now.