Power Lunch - The S&P 500 nears 7,000 1/9/26

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

President Trump meets with oil executives at the White House. Our Brian Sullivan reports from the ground.  And what do you predict will happen in Hollywood in 2026? Puck's Matt Belloni joins the show to give some of his predictions.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, stocks at a new record high, heading for a winning week to start the year. Welcome to Power Lunch alongside Kelly Evans. I'm Dominic Chu filling in for Brian Sullivan. The December jobs report this morning coming in lighter than expected on the top line headline number, but then lower than expected for the overall unemployment rate, some cross currents. Its impact on the markets and the setup for 2026 in just a moment as we creep closer to that 7,000 level on the S&P 500, Kel. It has been a big week. And we're also going to dive into the health care set.

ahead of J.P. Morgan's big conference next week, with a closer look at the companies and potential breakthroughs that should be on your radar. And two of the biggest media stories of the last year are coming into focus. From succession at Disney to who will win the battle for Warner Brothers Discovery, a Hollywood insider joins us with his predictions.

The big story of the day, though, is Top Energy Executives meeting with the president to discuss the crude oil situation in Venezuela. Brian Sullivan is at the White House and will bring us updates all hour long. Brian? Yeah, thank you very much. We're here at the White House, actually. My first trip to the White House, Bill Pulte, good to see you. How am I, my FHFA right here? A lot-time friend. How are you? Good to see you, Bill. Thank you very much. We're going to talk about mortgages in a separate segment, but let's talk about energy right now because along with, obviously, the FHFAE, because along with the energy CEOs, not all of them, but a lot of them, they are inside the Oval Office right now with the president, Chevron, Exxon, Conical, Phillips, any reps, a bunch of private companies, some of the foreign companies as well,

any of Italy. They're all in there talking about Venezuela. All right. So where is the tension? There is some natural tension. This is viewed as an administration that is pro oil and gas. But it is not all warm and rosy in there, and neither is it all warm and rosy out here either. Because here's the tension. The Trump administration would like the U.S. and Western oil and gas companies to go into Venezuela to help stabilize the nation, to help provide capital investment, and indeed put out a social media post last night talking about $100 billion of Western oil and gas company investments. To put that 100 billion guys into perspective,

that's roughly three and a half times ExxonMobil's entire capital spending budget for a year. That is a monstrous number. There is no indication that any oil and gas company, as I have reported for days now, is going to go into Venezuela anytime soon. What about the oil and gas companies that are in? in there? What do they want? Well, first off, many of them have already been in Venezuela. Conoco and Exxon in particular were in the country, got into a fight with the then-president dictator

Hugo Chavez, who then effectively cast, they left slash were cast out, and now are owed billions from the Venezuelan government. Security guarantees are paramount. They're not going to put any employees in the country unless they can guarantee those employees' safety. Also, the Venezuelan oil infrastructure, it's dilapidated at best. It's rusty, it's old. The Venezuelan oil, as you guys know, heavy sour, super salty as well. That's why you've seen big moves and shares of Hallibert. Schlumberzee, they're both in there, by the way. Baker Hughes, they're not here, but those are the services companies, guys, that if something were to happen, and it may not, they would go in first to try to lay the infrastructure and groundwork. Oh, and by the way,

at 58 bucks a barrel in oil, and we have about a million more barrels of oil being produced than demand right now. Until that reverses, what's the economic incentive to go in? Ryan Lance, the CEO of Conoco, Phillips, one of the most powerful people in oil and gas in the world, walking in, we kind of doorstep and came up on him and asked him a couple questions. Didn't say much, but here's Ryan Lance and Conoco Phillips. What do you think the main topic of conversation will be? Oh, Venezuela.

We got that. Anything that you would like to take out of the meeting that the administration, which is watching right now, can hear? Just understand their objectives, what they're trying to accomplish and win. What is your objective? Listen. That's it to listen. What does the president have to say? Secretary of the Interior Doug Bergam, Secretary of the Energy Right, and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,

We'll all speak today, along with the president, some of the oil and gas executives just on that board right there that are in that room. But listening and what the president has to say, as Ryan Lance just said, right now I think is jobs one, two, and three. We'll see. Hey, Brian, the other point that's being brought up in a lot of conversation right now about this is just how the folks in the Permian Basin in West Texas kind of feel about the dynamic that's devastating. developing in Venezuela with more oil possibly coming to market, the investment that it will take to put stuff down in there, what it will do to oil prices, and how that will impact U.S. manufacturers and shale producers of oil and gas right here in America. What do you think that conversation ends up sounding like if that happens at all during

this meeting with oil execs and the president? I think it will happen because I think to your point, Dom, at 58 bucks a barrel, 55 bucks a barrel, whatever the number may be, we're not at $100 a barrel. And so the economic incentive for a world that needs more oil is simply not there. The world is well supplied with oil. Supply demand, pretty much linked up. In fact, there's probably, as I noted, a little bit more supply than demand. I'm going to speculate wildly. This is not based on my reporting, but I've kind of nudged around it with some people. Watch Iran. What's happening in Iran right now with the pro-democracy, pro-human protests.

Not a lot of information coming out of Iran because it's Iran. They've shut off the internet, whatever may be the case. Iran is 3.2 million barrels a day. Every single one of those barrels is produced and sold by NIAC, the National Iranian Oil Corporation. Every worker in Iran that works to dig oil out of the ground works for NIAC. If there is something that were to interrupt the state of Iran, it makes sense that NIAC could be impacted as well, or maybe they choose to strike so they can pressure the government. If some of those barrels were to come off the market, it would make more economic sense

for companies that are in the rooms right behind us here in the Oval Office and the West Wing to go into Venezuela. But right now, that profit margin is simply not there. And Venezuela is an unstable place, guys. I can't reiterate this enough that nobody knows exactly even where this is going to be in three months. Oh, and then by the the way, in three years, what's the administration going to look like? What's the policy around oil and gas going to look like? A lot of questions. Hoping to get some answers in the big oval room behind us. All right. Brian Sullivan, thank you very much for that. You're going to be back a little later on with more reporting here from the White House as well. Thank you very much

for that. Switching now to the markets overall in the context of what Brian just spoke about. If you take a look at what's happening, the markets are up for first full trading day of 2026, small caps outperforming again today. The S&P is closing in on that 7,000 mark, as you can see there, just about 30 points away from there. With the year-in-target of 7750 for the S&P, our next guest is, yes, bullish on stocks, but thinks that tech and AI-adjacent names will be the ones to power this new market to record highs again.

In other words, what has been working is going to work still. Julian Emanuel now is the head of equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy over at Evercore for ISI. Julian, the 7750 is bullish. Take us through the reasons why, and it seems mathematically like if it's big tech that's doing it, it maybe stands to reason it'll happen. Yeah, well, so what's interesting to us is that to start the year, the events in December around one particular name that had, you know, debt issues and credit default swap spikes, caused the sentiment around the AI theme to get a little bit more cautious. And we find ourselves in a situation where actually our view that the AI names and themes that have led for the past three years

in communication services, in consumer discretionary, in infotech, that they're going to continue to lead, it's at a consensus. And frankly, I wasn't expecting to feel that way. And I'm very happy to feel that way. But if you think about how bull markets evolve, there tends to be a capital markets spike, I wouldn't necessarily call it a frenzy, but much more vigorous capital markets activity. That's percolated in the last few months, but as a percent of overall market cap, it still has further to go. And the historical tendency is that capital markets are led by the names and themes that got you here in the first place, and we think that's the AI trade. So talk about that where some feel a little frustrated that it's not, you know, the memory

stocks have been great. What about Nvidia? What about some of the, you know, Mag 7 stall warts? What are you looking for there? Well, if you look at it over the course of time and actually the broader NASDAQ has gone sideways for four months, what we're going to be looking for is how these names respond to earning season reports. We know. know one thing. They're going to beat. The beat rates have been very high throughout this entire cycle. And one of the things that with the VIX trading around 14 gives us at least a little bit of pause in the near term is the fact that expectations around earning season are very, very high. We think when the full year comes around, high single digits is going to be sufficient to drive

these names. What we're going to want to see is how the hyperscalers, how the enablers talk about the future. There doesn't seem to be a peak in, you know, the appetite for CAPEX. And obviously, the announcement this morning by one of the hyperscalers that they're acquiring more power capacity certainly bodes well for the runway into 2026. Right. So we're looking at the semis, for instance. Those came out right out to an all-time high, which is typically a bullish sign. What worries you? I mean, is it rates, is it, you know, if growth is a little too strong, you know, how does the

Fed fit into all of this? Well, so actually, if anything, it's our view that the Fed may be over-stimulative. That's the potential. We see a 30% chance that you actually get a bubble, which we would define as 30 times $300 in earnings or $9,000 on the S&P 500. But the near-term worries are one of these, again, is sort of where the VIX is, given the geopolitical backdrop. up. You know, Brian just talked about the complexities surrounding this visit to the White House

right now. Risk is probably under price in the near term. But longer term, our biggest concern would be a move higher in long-term rates as something that would be a punitive discount factor. But that hasn't happened until you get the 450 or 475 in the 10-year yield. And that's still a ways off in our view. Now, Julian, the VIX right now, as you point out, is that an extremely kind of depressed level, 14-handled to your point here. That kind of begs the question for some investors out there and traders about whether or not buying insurance right now is something that you might want to do because insurance is so cheap in case something does happen. Now, we know that you're bullish, but tactically speaking, do you see people taking advantage of this low volatility

regime to try to protect some of those assets down the line? So we saw a little bit of hedging at year end, we've seen, you know, very little option activity of a hedging nature to start the year. But for our purposes, this is actually one of these times where we think you own convexity to the upside and the downside in aggregate. It's so cheap that it really doesn't, you know, is really not going to make a dent. And frankly, when we look at it and you've seen this effect in the Korean stock market, where a couple of semi-related names really drive the index that you've seen the market race higher along with volatility racing higher.

In our view, the biggest bid to volatility could come if you go through 7,000 on the upside in the S&P. We think that would be a sort of galvanizing event for people to realize that even though they're talking bullish, they're still moderately exposed and relatively under-exposed to the AI theme, which we think would lead that charge. All right, Julian, great to have you here today. Thanks so much. Thank you.

Julian Emmanuel Banner Week for the markets, really. And let's get a quick check on the semis, which is moving higher once again after the president praised Intel and its CEO. And a post on Truth Social yesterday, he wrote the U.S. government is proud to be a shareholder of Intel. The U.S. took a 10% stake in the chipmaker back in August. Shares are up 70% since then, on track for a 10% gain today, which is their best day in more than a month. To read about that, just scan that QR code on your screen right now. Coming up, the sector itself has been red hot the last few months, and it just made a record high this week.

The top strategist in the space joins us on the other side of this break. I didn't forget a word. It's a mystery chart. Send in your guesses. We're back after that. Welcome back. Let's get you ready for next week by looking at the health care sector, which has been a quiet winner.

While much of the attention is elsewhere, health care remains steadily climbing since early August, up more than 20% in that stretch. And investors' focus turns to the big health care. conference next week. Let's bring in Jared Holtz, healthcare, equity strategist at Masuho. Jared, it's great to see you. What are you watching? Hey, Kelly, thanks for having me. I think I'm just looking for, you know, the general tone out of investors and how companies sound and how that kind of jives with how the sector has been performing. Obviously, I think investors are going into the meeting, much more confident.

Jared, sorry to jump in. We'll come back to this in just one second. We're starting to get some news out of the White House, Dom. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, if you take a look at what's happening overall, we are still trying to figure out what's happening with the president and everything else. So, again, maybe some of those comments coming out right now are with regard to what's happening with these oil executives. He is in a meeting right now with top oil executives as Brian Sullivan is there. As we understand that this meeting is beginning at 2.30. Yep. Round then we'll hear from the president. Then we'll hear from Marco Rubio. Then we'll start hearing from other executives and so forth. Is Brian down there standing by?

Okay, we'll go back to Sully in a moment. We'll go back to Jared then in the meantime. All right. So sorry about that. We're kind of in a fluid situation. Okay. Never mind. Very bad.

We are going to. I'm sorry, Jerry, things are very fluid at the White House, as they often are. We will come right back to you. Keep it right here after this break. This ETF, though, did hit a record high yesterday, and a lot of the company's feature in it will kick off earnings season next week. Just take a guess of that mystery chart. We'll tell you if you're correct on the other side of this break.

Keep it right here. Welcome back to part. Power Lunch. Our guest, Jared, holds us standing by to keep an eye on the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference next week, Jared. And you said, I'm sorry, you were looking at what themes that might jump out to those who haven't been following this narrative, but want to know where are the winners? Is it biotech? Is it the space broadly? There's always, like, for instance, some new discussion of treatments and cures and makes everyone feeling quite positive. But what's on your list? Yeah, I think the number one thing for me is just sentiment around the sector. Health care's

been performing a little bit better, had a good fourth quarter relative to the market, has started out the year, you know, pretty decently up 2% versus the market one, one and a half. So just a continued, you know, sense of investor interest and enthusiasm would be one. And then I think the second, and I only say this because I think all the other investors are so glued to it or pegged to it is the M&A environment, which has been fast and furious as of late. Now, Jared, from a strategy standpoint, it's interesting only because with that kind of health care run that we saw towards the back half of 2025, it wasn't necessarily the heavyweight GLP-1 type companies that were driving a lot of the kind of, at least headline gains that we saw,

some of the bigger stock moves. They were kind of smaller mid-cap companies, biotech specifically, and stuff that wasn't necessarily obesity, GLP-1 related. Do you think that trend continues? And if so, what are the hotspots in terms of treatments? Is it going to be cancer from now on? Is it going to be certain parts of heart disease, rare diseases? We've talked a lot about that this week here on this network. What do you think? Yeah, I think it's a good point. I really do think it's all of the above.

It's not a great answer, but I think the space is so diverse, and there are so many players in biotech that it really could come from anywhere. I think oncology is always going to be very topical, rare diseases, cardiovascular, inflammation, just to name a few. And yes, the category hasn't just been driven by GLPs. It's been driven by a much broader verse. you know, broader array of therapeutic categories, we'd expect that to continue next week.

So I'm looking through your list, and, you know, this makes sense because we've seen a lot of headlines lately, but you're saying it's really going to be a lot about dealmaking as well. So you've got some M&A targets, including Abivac, cytokinetic, structure therapeutics, turns, and a lot of these are up,

you know, these are microcaps in some cases, you know, triple digits in recent months. Revolution medicines, obviously, are being talked about by Merck potentially. So, you know, it's hard to try to play the guessing game, but this is now a real opportunity, you think, for investors. Yeah, and it's not just next week. I mean, we always talk about it, like we have to see deals announced

either right before the conference or during it. But I think the same landscape is probably going to be prevalent in 2026 as it was last year, which is to say you've got dozens of large-cap pharma companies looking to bolster their businesses, bolster their revenue. And really, you know, the easiest way, arguably, to do that is by continuing to acquire these smaller cap biotech companies. So it's impossible to predict timing. But I do think this meeting tends to be very significant from a B-to-B standpoint. You've got all the companies in the same city for a few days. I mean, it tends to be the genesis

of what we see later in the year. Hey, Jared, really quickly before you go, because of this conference and the nexus of people it brings together, how important will the intersection of AI and healthcare be, and just how much will that be talked about at JPMorgan Healthcare this year? I don't really know. I mean, there are always a few AI or tech sector players that present at the conference. So there's always a little bit of an intertwining. I'm really not sure to be honest. I mean, I think the question is a great one to be posed at the management teams,

the executives of large cap pharma and biotech to the degree that they're using these AI tools and computative programming to increase or embellish drug development. I don't know topically if it's going to be something that's directly talked about, but I think, you know, with the presentations going on in all the Q&A sessions, it's bound to come up a lot. All right. Jared Holes and Mazuho with the preview of JPMorgan Health Care. Thank you very much. Have a nice weekend, sir. Safe Travels.

Thank you. We'll see if we get any news this weekend. There you go. Turning back to the markets, the S&P hit a record high today at 6972 at the moment. We're fast approaching the 7,000 level. The bank ETF also hitting a record high today, the KBE on pace for its best week since August. And that was our mystery chart. It all comes ahead of a big week of financial earnings next week, I think. Mike Santoli joins us from the New York Stock Exchange. When do things kick off, Mike, Tuesday, Wednesday? I think it is Tuesday. And I think

that the street's very much prepared to hear a good thing, as you've been imagined, Kelly. I mean, if you look at the way this year has started, the bank leadership has been pretty much a staple of what's been happening, not just in the last week, but last three months or so. It's really reasserted itself. This has been part of this whole cyclical rotation that has helped to broaden out the market, as everybody said they wanted. But while the market broadened out and financials worked really well and consumer cyclicals, and you obviously saw this kind of uptick in materials and commodities, people kind of pricing at a reacceloration of the economy. The overall S&P was basically sideways from late October levels. Now we're finally seeing a breakout above those highs from late October. And why? Because we're seeing a slight re-rotation back into tech.

So I do think that banks have been considered since the 2024 election, the absolute cleanest way to express the expectations for deregulation, steeper yield curve. Fed's going to continue cutting rates into a sturdy economy. There's really no better kind of proxy for that collective view than the bank stocks. I think the question is, you know, are investors' expectations ahead of themselves? What are we going to see in terms of the credit experience and the state of the consumer that they talk about? You know, the first group we're going to hear from has been in many ways the best performing group.

The bar is quite high, but it may not be that much of a tell for everyone else. I don't know. I mean, it's been so strong everywhere you look, except, Mike, and I'm curious we make of this. You mentioned the other day several of the consumer staples names. They weren't just underperforming. They are at like 20-year lows in some cases. Then I open the Wall Street Journal and I read that Kraft Hines lost its way on mac and cheese. And I guess I'm just wondering, are we even talking about Staples, for instance, as part of a market rotation story?

Or are these companies simply being left behind and no longer even a part of the market story? I think it's a tremendously important question, Kelly. I've talked about it a lot. People who want to say the market is sending a really bullish message about the economy always point to discretionary over Staples. And that pair has been very much in favor of this is a strong economy. But are we seeing something structural in terms of staples as they're diminishing importance in the market, but also they're kind of loosening hold on the consumer? I think it's a big question.

I did see, by the way, Chris Verona's Chategas today said some of the downside action in the big staple stocks looks like capitulation in the last several weeks. So maybe what we're seeing is a final burst of liquidation until maybe they can find their footing a little bit, at least on the non-food side. that's, you know, things like personal products and such. Interest rate cuts and dividend yields in play as well. All right. Thank you very much, Mike Santoli. We'll see you later on this afternoon as well. Now to the Treasury markets, the benchmark 10-year no yields, ending the week mostly flat,

following a softer than expected jobs report earlier this morning. Rick Santelli joins us now from Chicago with the bond report and the action here. Just how important does this jobs report set things up for any potential Fed narrative in the next two to three months? Oh, I think it's huge. I think it's huge. The drop of the unemployment rate is big, and all the rest of it. We could talk about it, but that really, in my opinion, with the SOM rule, it's very important. Now, let's look at a two and ten six-hour chart. I'll tell you what, look at that divergence. Dom, you were just talking about it. That's what the two years telling us, as it just goes whoosh to the upside. And when you look at twos and tens week to date,

you pointed out 10 years near flat. Ten-year closed last week at four. We're down over two basis points. That's the orange line. Look at that green line. Those are twos. They're up almost seven basis points, which means the 210 spread has contracted, has flattened almost nine basis points. That's a two-month chart of twos and tens. And it's really important because you see that high watermark on the right side. That's 71 plus basis points. That was the widest that spread traded in four years. So it really is holding. the steepening, but it has turned down. And one of the big issues today is the probabilities for January are near zero. They're near zero. Last, yesterday they were around 13 percent. Today, they were like 2 percent. And that really has affected the dollar index. The more the probabilities go down, the higher the dollar index goes up. Dollar index right now is on pace for a one month high clothes. And in my opinion, we are pushing those rate cuts if they occur at all to the back half of 26. Kelly, back to you. Rick, that is rich territory for discussion. Dollars going up.

Rate cut odds are being scaled by this is a huge story. Stop the presses, but we actually have more news to get to and we'll come back to that. Rick, thanks. We've got a news alert, in fact, on OpenAI, parent company of Chat Chpity. Kate Rooney, what can you tell us? Hi, Kelly. So Open AI and SoftBank, one of their major backers, teaming up on a massive power investment. It seems like the theme of the day. The two are announcing a joint investment of $1 billion. This is into SB Energy. It's a privately held company. It's helping build out some of the data centers out there also backed by SoftBanks. So kind of full circle there. Each are going to be putting in $500 million. And as part of the deal, SB Energy is building out this 1.2 gigawatt

data center in Texas for Open AI ads to existing deals we've heard about with Microsoft, Oracle, Correve, Google, for example. It does come as Kelly, you were talking about earlier, meta-announcing deals tied to more than 6 gigawatts of nuclear power. So all of this really just underlines the all-out energy demand we see from AI. This race to build infrastructure, the partner also builds on Open AI's Stargate Initiative. Remember that with SoftBank as well and Oracle. They're planning to spend up to $500 billion on AI data centers. So this is part of it.

She also mentioned SoftBank has invested $41 billion into Open AI, Kelly. All right. Kate, thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you very much. Kate, thank you. Coming up, Brian Sullivan. rejoins us from the White House with two top energy analysts to discuss what's at stake in today's

meeting between the president and oil CEOs as oil prices are on the rebound. We're back after this. All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. As we mentioned at the top of this show, President Trump is meeting with key top oil company executives at the White House as we speak. Let's now go back to the White House where Brian Sullivan is standing by with a couple of great guests. Brian. Yeah, thank you very much domine. In fact, you showed on that big wall on the far left was Darren Woods, the CEO of Exxon Mobile. Darren Woods actually just arriving minutes ago. He is now in the building behind us, the White House. We're here in Washington, D.C., but he just kind of snuck in under the wire. So a lot of CEOs, a lot of private companies are also here as well. Those are the public companies that the

stocks might be impacted. But Darren Woods kind of sliding in last minute here under the, under the gun. Just got a, by the way, a statement from SLB. I hate to say this, formerly known as Schlumberze. You know that by now. But I'm going to read this because the services companies, the Halliburton's, the SLBs, the Baker Hughes of the world, they're the ones that are seen as potentially benefiting first. Their stocks moved fairly sizably at the beginning of the week, Dom.

As you know, here's a statement that I just got from Olivier Le Pucci as the CEO of SLB. A quote, we have historically served as the partner of choice. in the region, meaning Venezuela, and we are confident that under the right conditions, operating licenses, and safety environment, we can ramp up activities quickly to support the people of Venezuela and our customers, end quote. So that's from SLB, because a large part of the story is, will companies go back even if they can? And if so, how quickly could they potentially ramp up oil production and exports and hopefully more money for the Venezuelan people. Let's bring in two people that know more about it than I do, certainly, and are involved in it and

write about it almost daily. That is our friend Alima Croft of RBC Capital Markets and our friend Bob of D.Lapidon, Energy. All three of us, by the way, in Washington, D.C., just in separate places. So Halima and Bob, good to see you both. Halima, I'm going to start with you what would be a sort of best case scenario for the industry and more importantly for the country and people of Venezuela from the taking place behind me right now? I mean, I certainly think there's an expectation that the service companies will likely go back into Venezuela. I think it is likely that you will see a ramp of activity from Chevron, which continues to operate there, when the only country is operating there. If you have a company

like Repsol that recently lost their license, I expect that they would like to go back in. So I do think that there is a path for a ramp up of several hundred thousand barrels over the kind of 12 to 18 month period. Almost all the sanctions that the US placed on Venezuela were done by the executive branch where there's no problem with Congress in terms of repeal. So I think that is the likely best path for Venezuela. But as you mentioned at the start of the show,

Venezuela faces huge challenges. It is essentially almost a failed state. Infrastructure needs to be rebuilt. There's a massive health crisis there, security challenges. So getting it beyond a couple hundred thousand, that's really gonna be the heavy lift. Yeah, and Bob Egnall, SLB, by the way, Schleberze is actually the services provider or one of for Chevron,

so they would be seen as directly benefiting. But to Halima's point and to Secretary Wright's point, we interviewed him a couple of days ago at the Goldman Energy Conference on Wednesday, and we talked about this ramping idea. Have you done any math at Rapadan that would indicate how many more barrels might be able to be generated from Venezuela in, say, a year to a year and a half, assuming there is some stability and more Western investment in that nation? Brian, we sure have about three to 500,000 barrels a day over the next year and a half, two

years. This is plucking low-hanging fruit that's ripe. As Halima said, they can go in there, they can de-bottleneck, they can address some deferred maintenance, get a substation working for some power, get those services companies in there. No question they can get a few hundred thousand, half a million barrels a day if they're lucky in the next couple of years. But the big prize in Venezuela, the million barrel a day ads will measure in many years to decades and tens of billions of dollars. And that's well beyond the end of the Trump administration. Yeah, because Conoco Philips spending $9 billion to get another 180,000 barrels a day out of its Alaska project called Willows. Ultimately quickly, Bob, back to you, does the world need

that oil? We want Venezuela to prosper. They're going to need the must. money, but does the world need the oil, given that we seem well supplied, if not over supplied right now? Well, the good news, Brian, as you know, we've talked about it. This whole peak demand narrative that demand would stop growing by 2030 due to EVs and climate policies has been collapsing over recent months. So if you're looking beyond 2030, and that's the relevant time for Venezuela, suddenly the world is shaken off this peak demand narrative and said, wait a minute, we need a lot more oil

in the coming decades. The IEA, major forecasters, I won't name, you look them up, they've all backed away from this peak demand. And that's good because we need Venezuela, we need Canada. We need more big projects like these, but after 2030. Yeah, and Halima, from the policy perspective, these companies, the Exxons, the Chevrons, the Conoco's, the rest, Ennis, Repsolve, Spain, they operate in decade-long thinking, that the investments are going to make, they have to be in business for decades to come. We're here at the White House right now.

In three years, there's going to be somebody else in the White House. What kind of thinking goes into the policymaking? If you're the head of one of these oil companies saying, well, we're willing to do it. We may be able to do it. We're just not sure what the American government policies are going to look like that may or may not encourage us financially. to do anything.

Right. I mean, that is a big question. The degree to which this is reliant on U.S. assistance, DFC financing, will it be there three years from now? Will it be the priority of the White House three years from now to essentially revitalize the Venezuelan oil sector, making PEDA great again? Or will there be other key priorities and will it be scrutiny over this U.S. action? So again, it looks like we have a huge.

three-year horizon in terms of guarantees for U.S. policy beyond that quite unclear. Very quickly, Halima, where does Iran factor into this? What's happening in Iran? We don't know where it's going to end. Let's hope for freedom for the people of Iran. But there's a scenario where the Iranian oil company, Nyok, maybe they go on strike or they're unable to produce oil. How does Iran factor into all this? I mean, obviously it is the other big energy geopolitical story for the oil market right now. There have been escalating protests. in Iran, unclear what is happening with the government's control over the situation. No indications yet that there are major breaks in the security forces.

That's what I would be looking for. Do you have any indications that they are disobeying orders to clamp down on protests? President Trump had said from Mar-Alargo that the U.S. would become involved if they would shoot protesters. They are shooting protesters. So what is going to be the U.S. response? Yep. Yeah, and we'll leave it there, but I also want to remind people that many Democrats, leading Democrats, have issued letters to some of these companies behind us that are in the building, asking for information about what they knew ahead of time. So still a lot of pieces that need to be put into the puzzle.

But Bob and Haleem, nobody does it better than you, and we appreciate your time and you're inside. Kelly and, thank you very much. Kelly and Dom, again, we've got secretaries Wright, Rubio, and Bergham, all speaking behind us, along with the president and oil executives. We get any new information, any more speed? Maybe we can get in there and listen to what they have to say. Either way, some big developments for energy and Venezuela happening in the room behind us. Indeed, Brian, thank you all very, very much. And let's get over to Pippa Stevens now for a CNBC news update. Pippa?

Hey, Kelly, Republicans on the House Oversight Committee are renewing their threat to pursue contempt proceedings against Bill and Hillary Clinton if they don't show up for scheduled depositions next week. The panel previously issued subpoenas for the Clintons to appear as part of an investigation into the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The committee says neither have confirmed they will attend. The Minneapolis school system is offering for students to learn remotely amid federal immigration enforcement in the city. The move comes as the Trump administration sends 2,000 agents to the area following the deadly shooting of a motorist by an ICE agent earlier this week. According to MS Now, hundreds of these agents were redirected and moved to Minneapolis from other U.S. cities. And Stalantis is scrapping its plug-in electric hybrid Jeep SUVs and Chrysler minivan as a result of slowing EV sales.

The automaker said it will turn its focus to more competitive electrified solutions, including hybrid and range-extended vehicles. The cancellation also comes amid a recall of the Jeep plug-in hybrids due to fire risk. Dom, back on over to you. All right. Thank you very much, Pippa Stevens, for the last. the news update there. So do you have a prediction for Hollywood's 2026? Our next guest has 20 of those predictions, and he'll offer a few of them with us after the break, so keep it right here for the future of the media landscape. Welcome back. We're less than 10 full days into

the year, which is already shaping up to be a monumental one in the world of media, with big mergers, CEO's searches, and awards season on the horizon. Joining us to discuss some of his boldest predictions for the year is Matt Belloni, one of the founding partners at Puck. Did I say it right, Matt? Welcome. It's Bellany, but that's okay. Belny, I knew as it came out, I was like, I don't think this is right. Even though we're already starting the year, it's I think exactly the right time to kind

of check in on the, let's put it as like, predictions are a way of trying to understand the forces that are shaping our future. So with that said, what are they? I mean, what jumps out to you? And should we start with WBD? Sure. the biggest deal in Hollywood in many years. This is a potentially 80-something billion dollar deal that Netflix thinks they have. They have a signed contract with Warner Brothers Discovery

for the studio and streaming division. I don't think that this will be resolved by the end of 26. This is going to drag into 2027. Paramount and the Ellison family, they are not going away, they're going to either have to up their bid or they're going to have to sue potentially claiming some kind of fraud or that they weren't taken seriously when their deal is better. Regardless of which one of these suitors ultimately gets the deal, there's going to be a regulatory process that either the Trump administration is going to clog up with litigation or if the Trumps are paid off or they are made happy, the state attorneys general are. are likely going to go after this merger on antitrust grounds because it does eliminate a Hollywood

studio that's been around for 100 years and potentially give Netflix pretty big market power in the premium subscription market. All right, Matt, it's Dom. What about in terms of movie studios, the front of mind thing for me is because I've got a, believe it or not, a Disney family vacation coming up later on this season with the kids and we're going to spend all kinds of money as many families do. But my- Florida or California?

In Florida. So my curiosity is about my park experience coupled with that studio entertainment experience and what the future holds for Disney in 2026. Well, the big question in Disney is who's going to be the CEO? I mean, there are two main candidates, one of whom is above the Parks Division, Josh Tomorrow, who is the presumptive favorite. And my colleague, Kim Masters at Pug, thinks that they are going,

to put two co-CEOs atop Disney. Have the Parks guy, Josh DeMorrow, and the content person, Dana Walden, run the company together. And that would be an interesting move. Netflix has a dual CEO situation. It seems to be working fine, but Disney has never done that. And the consensus around Hollywood is that the Parks Division is firing on all cylinders. You will likely notice when you are on your vacation, the parks in Florida are absolutely packed.

They are extracting more money than they ever have from customers at the parks. I'm sorry. But that division is really propping up the rest of the company, which has experienced such uncertainty from the streaming war. So what happens in the leadership C-suite at Disney is going to be a big deal. I actually think they're going to have not a big problem keeping Dana Walden. One of my predictions is that she will not go anywhere, even if she doesn't get a co-CEO or CEO role,

they will give her some more money. I mean, James Borman, who's running the search process, he did that at Morgan Stanley. And when he picked one out of three contestants, he then gave the other two a giant equity award and was able to keep them at the company with an elevated title. I think that's what's going to happen at Disney.

Much less consequentially or maybe equally so, Matt, real quickly. What's going on with the podcast? Is it at the Golden Globes this weekend? The Golden Globes has added a best podcast category. Yeah, everyone from Mel Robbins to Amy Poehler is nominated. And no, it doesn't have anything to do with film or TV, although these shows are usually on video now. But they want to bring in a demo that is not interested in film or TV. So they're thinking that there will be a group of people out there that might tune in to see who wins best podcast.

I would. I totally would. They would hook me with this. And I want to see. Then the podcasters can all get dressed up. Like, these are my people. Sure. But the voters don't change. So these are 300 film and TV journalists that are awarding these Golden Globes. So my guess is that the award will go to one of the celebrity nominees. I'm guessing Amy Poehler, probably, because she has hosted the Golden Globes several times and has a relationship with them. So that is my big prediction for the golden world. Far be it to suggest these award shows are political in nature. Matt, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Matt Bellany of Puck. We're back after this. Welcome back. We're watching a couple of big milestones, one of them being S&P 7,000. We're 25 points shy of that. And Alphabet is approaching the $4 trillion market cap. All right.

So there's the price, 329.38. If we get to $330-ish-31 cents, that will get you to that $1. four T marks and real rarefied air. Exactly. So if we take a look at this. Or a trillion dollar. How many of these tri? This truly surprised. I never thought we were going to see this many multi, multi-trillion dollar companies. I mean, just the idea that Alphabet was not given up or dead. You can never say that out of a mega-capped. And you know my favorite of the round numbers that were coming up on. What's that? Dow, $50,000. Oh, there you go.

We need the hats. Thanks for watching Power Lunch. Have a great weekend. Closing bell starts now.