Predictive History - The Story of "Civilization", "Secret History", "Game Theory" and more - Civilization #31 - The Oceanic Currents of History

Episode Date: October 7, 2025

Civilization #31 - The Oceanic Currents of History

Okay, good morning. So welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester, we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester, to better understand human history, and to better understand what's happening in the world today. And also, to be able to predict the future. So if you have been following current events, and I hope you have, There are now three major conflicts in the world. The first and most devastating is the war in the Ukraine, where Russia and Ukraine happened in conflict for about three years now.

And a lot of people have died. There's controversy over the exact number, but it's possible that over a million soldiers have died in this war so far. And even though President Donald Trump, the United States, has shown signs that he wants to end the war, we don't really know when the war will end. So this war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously it brings a lot of

instability and uncertainty in the world but it's also driving up prices and it's making things inconvenient so when you fly in the United States you'll discover that it takes you long enough fly the United States because you can't fly through Russia you have to fly around Russia okay so that's the first major conflict a second conflict which is not as deadly, but which will probably prove to be even more dangerous is the war in the Middle East, the conflict in the Middle East. As you know, for the past couple of years, Israel has been in conflict with basically most of its neighbors. It's launched an expedition into the Gaza Strip against Hamas.

What Hamas did on October 7th. It's launched a war against Lebanon. It's involved in Syria. And the signs tell us that this conflict will spread. Trump has come in and promised a resolution of a conflict. But as I will show you this semester, there are historical. structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War III. This conflict will only increase.

The great fear right now is Israel attacks Iran and drives the United States into war with Iran. And this will mark the beginning of World War III. And this could possibly lead to the end of the world as we know it today. If the United States attacks Iran, both Russia and China must intervene in some capacity. Does that make sense to you guys? Iran right now, it's the linchpin of the global economy. The first reason is there's a lot of oil in Iran in the Middle East. China, South Korea, and Japan get most of its oil from the Middle East, right?

So if you, if the oil supply is cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese economy, basically all the East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe. But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the world, meaning most of the world's trade goes through that area, especially something called the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has a capacity to cut off all trade in the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be catastrophe for the global economy. And if that would happen,

then the Western powers would need to get involved in order to food. up the street of Hormuz, and then Russia, India, China, who knows. But a lot of people would have to get involved in order to protect their economic interests. So I will go into the semester. We'll talk a lot about what's driving in the Middle East. There are these geopolitical factors, as I discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester,

but I will explain more this semester. And then the third and final conflict is basically the United States against the world. What I mean by that is that ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991, We have been living in something called a unipolar moment, meaning there's only one hegemon, one superpower. And as such, the United States has been able to dictate policy, especially economic policy,

around the world. The United States controls all trade. We have to use the US dollar in order to trade. The United States also uses its military to protect the United States. to protect shipping lanes. And this is this criticism called the Pax Americana, the American Peace. And this, of course, has brought tremendous prosperity

to the world. China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world to deliver goods around the world. But this unipolar movement has also created a lot of conflict. The main conflict being the United States can invade

any country for no reason. 2003 it invaded Iraq for no reason. It destroyed Libya for no reason. It almost destroyed Syria for no reason. So the number of countries the United States has gone and destroyed are just staggering. So, and that's why Russia, under Putin, because it felt bullied, it felt disrespected, that's why Russia is now in conflict with the United States.

And strangely enough, this conflict has caused the United States to go into conflict with the rest of the world. Okay, so as you may know, the United States right now, under Trump has the country. declared, or is about to launch trade wars against a lot of countries. Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China. So we will go in this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this is happening. Again, my argument to you is that if you know enough history, if you study the historical structural forces that drive global conflict, then you'll understand what's going on, and you will also be able to predict what will happen. Okay?

Does that make sense? Okay. So what I want to talk today is about a new model of historical analysis. How can we understand the movement of history? Why do people do what they do? Why do nations go to war? Why do nations have peace? Okay?

So I'm looking at grand history. I'm looking at the large structural world. structural movement of history and in the past there have been two main models for understanding historical development okay so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle and this makes sense right because this mirrors what we experience in life when we we are born but then we die and then Other people are born and then they die. So it's a cycle.

You look at the seasons. There's winter, but that gives rise to spring, which then gives rise to summer, then the fall, then winter again. It's a cycle. So for most of human history, most people have understood the movement of the world as a cycle.

That's certainly true in Chinese history, right? Dynasties rise because they have the menace of heaven, heaven favors them. And they do justice when they first arise. But over time, for a right of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the magnitude of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continued cycle of dynastic rise and decline. Now, in the Western context, there's also a cycle. There are many different cycles, but let me explain one cycle that we've noticed in the Greek and Roman world.

The cycle is this. There are three major factions in a society. There is the people, there is nobility, and then there is the king, or a great. person okay and each of these factions have a particular strength the people their strength comes from their numbers right they have mass the mobility it's only minority people but they have authority they are respected because they know more they have they are better at war than ordinary people but they have authority okay people respect them and the king pass the army okay so these are the three

major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing a lot where the two of the three get together to beat one, okay? And then this forces a new alliance, right? So what happens is this? You first have something called an olarker key where the nobility is in charge,

and everyone has to do what they do, what they command. Okay? time this Alarkerque becomes corrupt and the way they become corrupt is by exploiting the people through debt all right so in a nobility the nobles own the land you have to work the land but you get a shear and that's fine but sometimes the weather is bad so you can't work the land you can't pay me the rent so I give you a loan And over time, this loan becomes a debt.

And at a certain point, you can't pay off the debt, so what happens? You become my slave. And your children become my slave as well. So this creates a lot of conflict in society. How is this conflict resolved? Because one of nobility wants to be king. And he sees an opportunity in the civil conflict between the people, and nobility.

So he tells the people, if you make me king, I will clear your debts. And this creates a monarchy. And the first king is usually a good king because he had to work hard to obtain his position and

people love him for the fact that he cleared away their debts. This is what we call it Jubilee, by the way. do you believe and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the son has a son who's awful okay and so nobility get angry the people get angry and the rebel and they create a democracy okay but then in the democracy because what happens in a democracy is it's the best people or the best speakers,

the wealthy's people who control the votes. And so they get together, and what do they do? And what do they do? They create an arlarchy. Okay? Do you see how the cycle works? The cycle goes on and on and on. These three factions always un-conflict with each other.

And the way they form their alliances creates a certain form of government, okay? when the nobility's in charge in an oligarchy, but then a king and the people work together or throw in a creative monarchy. And then the king becomes corrupt, and so the nobility and the people work together create a democracy.

Okay? And you can see the cycle happening to the United States as well, right? Because who is Trump? Trump is a king. Does that make sense to you guys? What is Trump saying? Trump is saying to people, the elite are corrupt. The elite are stealing from you.

The elite are lying to you. Vote for me and I will destroy the elite and I will give you more economic opportunities. You understand? So this is a really important idea. Trump is not going to be president for four years. His ambition is to be king. And we see the cycle throughout

human history. So that's the idea of a cycle. We also have another model of human historical development, which is a line, okay, a line. And the idea of progress towards truth. So that's the other competing model. Okay, there are too many models, there's a cycle, and then there's a line. And the idea of a line is human society does not go on and on in a use of cycle. It is moving towards a truth. It is moving towards a good end. So this idea has been around for a very long time.

Remember in the Bible, when King David first sponsored the right in the Bible, the Bible was a line where, Yahweh the God, he was looking for a friend. He was looking for someone who we could trust to rule his kingdom of heaven. And he first tried Adam and Eve, and they disobeyed him. Then he tried Noah, then he tried Abraham, and then he tried Moses. And then he found his true friend who is David. Okay? So the truth is David. in the Hebrew Bible. Then you have the Romans. Remember the Romans, Virgil wrote something called the Inniad.

And in the Inniad, Troy was destroyed so that Rome could be founded. And when Rome was founded, Rome will have to fight this series of wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar. And this will create something called the Pax Romana. And this is the end of history. This is where all movement ends. Because once you achieve the Pax Romana, there'll be no more war. So the idea of a lie.

Obviously this is not true. But back then, when they came up with this history, they thought it was true. And if you know a little bit about current history, then you'll know about a man named Francis Fukuyama, who is an American, who was for the government and he wrote something called the end of history which is an essay arguing that when the Soviet Union fell it showed the end of history before history was a battle of ideas communism capitalism capitalism and now with the father of the Soviet Union we now know that Western liberal consumer democracy is the best system in the world we no longer have to argue about this Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China.

And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won a fight because we're too busy spending money. And the best way they make money is through trade, not war. Okay? We now also know this is not true. All right? But the main proponents of the line theory of history

progress of history are actually Christians. Okay, Christians. Why? Because they believe that Jesus marks a turning point in history. And when Jesus came, it marked a progress towards truth. What is truth? Truth is the second coming of Jesus. which will mark the end of the world. When Jesus returns,

he will usher in a millennium a thousand years of peace. When he will be king, we will all have to obey him. What I will show you in the future when we discuss Crusades, the Crusades, is that this idea, okay? It sounds like a simple idea,

but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists, by the way, who want war in the Middle East because if there's war in the Middle East

and the world is about to end, Jesus has to return from heaven to save us. Okay? You think this is silly, you think this is crazy, but I'm telling you right now, This idea, which millions of people around the world believe in,

it's one of the main causes of the war in the Middle East. And guys, crazy ideas make crazy events. All right? So there are people who literally believe that we can save the world by ending it. It's only the threat of nuclear holocaust. It's only the threat of the end of Israel that will force. force Jesus to return issuing a second coming. All right?

Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models, okay? So for example, Hegel, we'll discuss Fadierke Hagell later on in the semester. He's really important. But he has this idea called the dialectic. The dialectic just means a conflict. conversation so what he believes is that history is driven by ideas that are conflict with each other okay wherever there's an idea for example let's say

you have capitalism then what will happen is a new idea will arrive to challenge the existing idea we'll call communism okay and then what will happen is these two ideas will merge together and they will draw on the best parts of each other and we can call this socialism all right so it's a line okay but it's it's like this almost right there's a idea something comes in conflict and they and this leads to a new idea which then leads you a new idea okay but he still believes that we're progressing towards the truth through this conflict right so we discuss Hegel and his

theory of the dialectic later on the semester and this will lead and this the idea of the dialectic will lead to of course Marxism okay so Marx is drawing a lot on Kegel and another philosopher named Emmanuel Kant for his theory of communism but we'll do that in later on in a semester all right so these are the two main models of historical development you have the cycle the his circle or you have to lie you have to be believe that things move in continuous motion or they're moving towards an end? Does that make sense? Any questions about these two models so far? Okay, so what you will learn

the semester is a new model of historical development. Okay, it's a much more complicated model than these two models, but I think it is much much more much more more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work. And it has to affect that history as an economic discipline, it's just not very good. It just not.

What I mean by that is, You look at the world today, there's this Trump presidency, there's this conflict in the Ukraine, there's the Middle East conflict, and you would expect historians to come out and say, oh, this has happened before and we can then predict what will happen, and so this is what's going to happen, okay? But guess why, guys, they're not doing that. Also, they're not very good at predicting things. This is not. History has, is notorious for not being able to tell us much about the future.

And I'm saying, well, it's because we look at the past. And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future, or at least better understand the present. So the idea of truth. What is truth? Well, truth does two things. First, it explains. Why did this happen?

What did World War II start? And the answer we have today is like, Hitler was a bad guy. He was evil. That doesn't explain much for us. And then it also has to predict. It predicts. If it's truthful, then it predicts. And if she doesn't do that.

So I want to fix this problem by introducing a new model of history, which is a lot more complicated, okay? I'll be honest with you, it's a lot more complicated. But I think for our purposes, it's more useful at explaining why things happen the way they do. And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem which has currents.

And then these currents come into conflict with each other, which leads to a new development. So think about hurricanes. And the thing that's really important about this model that I'm proposing is there's no moral judgment in it. Okay? I mean, obviously in the line, the end where we're going is good and where we're at now is bad. But what I'm saying is, there's moral judgment saying this is good, this is bad. It's not helpful. It doesn't really tell us anything.

anything. All right? Okay, I'm much more interested in explaining why this happened, how this happened, and where this is going. Okay, so let's look at the world to understand this theory. What I want what I'll show you is the world is about into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta reality. Meta reality. So what's the meta reality? Meta reality is the understanding of the world from which all other understandings derive. So what I'm saying is that culture is the most

important part of who you are. Much more important than your gender, much more important than your race your ethnicity much more important than your economic demographic okay you're rich you're poor okay so to understand this idea why culture is so important I will do a thought experiment okay a thought experiment the thought experiment is this let's take a random guy from China two thousand years ago okay just a random guy We'll take him off the streets and we'll put him into China today. All right?

Now in 2000 years, China has changed a lot, right? We now have the internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. So China has changed a lot in these 2,000 years.

How long would it take him for him to adapt to the new China? And I would say, I would say at most 5 to 10 years. Because even though on the surface, China has changed a lot. Deep down inside, China's culture has stayed consistent for the past 3 to 4,000 years. So he would understand how to make friends. He would understand if he were to get a job how to associate with his boss and his colleagues.

If we would get married, he would know how to raise his children to have them succeed in China. Does that make sense to you guys? It would take him time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in Germany today. Germany, okay? What I will argue is this.

He will never, ever be able to adapt to the culture. He may get a job as a pizza delivery man, who knows, okay? But he will never, ever make friends who are German. He won't find a German wife. Whatever job he does, he won't know how to succeed. He won't know what to say to his boss. He won't know how to associate with his boss. Does that make sense?

This is a guy who knows the Internet, who knows how to drive a car, who can speak English, but because of the culture, he's always a stranger. Doesn't make sense. This fly experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world.

It drives how you interact with others. So what matters is the culture and nothing else. What I want to show you is, the semester, is the world can be divided into cultural ecosystems because of the history, because of the geography, because of the demographics, okay? It doesn't make sense. So, look, Europe is a cultural ecosystem.

Meaning someone from Germany can go to Italy and still feel at home. They don't speak the same language, the geography is different, but they share the same cultural orientation, the same cultural values. Someone who lives in the Middle East, okay? Well, somebody called the Levant, Israel and other places, but basically the Middle East. That's also another cultural ecosystem. Then you have the steps. Okay, so remember the steps, are this grassland,

this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia, okay? And then you have China, India, okay? So there are these different ecosystems, cultural ecosystems that are determined by their geography, their history, and the demographics. and the demographics and culture's response to geography, history, and demographics, okay? Does that make sense?

All right? Now, what I will show you is that within each ecosystem, they're always interacting with each other. Okay? They're always interacting with each other. and when they change, they change their interaction with each other. So let's ask a really important question, which is why do empires? Why do they fall? Why do they decline?

Why do they fail? And this is a really important question. How was it possible for the Roman Empire to collapse? how were the Greeks able to defeat the Persian Empire? How were the Mongolians and the Montju is able to conquer the Chinese Empire? And what I will show you the semester is, when this happens, when empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consistent pattern in this.

So let me explain the pattern. And then for the semester, we'll go into specific, instances of this pattern to explore the specifics, okay? Does that make sense? All right. So what happens is this. Why empires fall is, there's usually an empire, okay? Let's just say Rome. And as expand, they encounter something called the borderlands, okay? Borderlands. Borderlands are just places that are the intersections of empires. So Mongolia is the borderland of the Chinese Empire, right? Arabia is the borderland of the Byzantine and the Sassan Persian empires.

Okay? And the borderlands and the empire become at first symbiotic, okay? Meaning they depend on each other. They work with each other, okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is for trade. They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation.

So what often happens is the empire needs mercenaries. And it turns out that people who live in the borderlands make very good soldiers. Because they live in a time of war and chaos. In the borderlands, there's no central authority. So they're always finding each other. So they make very good soldiers. And then the third way they interact with each other is some people in the borderlands will raid and pillage the empire, the outsides of the empire for resources.

So they are interacting with each other. So the pattern is this. The borderlands first start off as maybe an isolated region of the world. So Arabia, the steppes, and the Germanic north, what we call Scandinavia today. okay the north the northman so these are all isolated parts but as the empire expands they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems and when they act we and when they interact what happens is these borderlands become energized okay they it's like the empire's adding fuel to the borderlands by giving them more wealth by giving them more knowledge by giving them more access to information

It doesn't make sense. And over time, what happens is, because of this new energy, the borderlands become much more populated, much more wealthy, much more knowledgeable. And then it creates internal conflicts within their borderlands. And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to expand.

They have to expand now. And in the process of expansion, expansion what happens is now and then they will conquer the empire all right that's a pattern the borderlands are first these isolated regions that no one knows much about they're like the stuff of legend and myth when the empire expands it energizes this these borderlands the energy makes these boroughlands more wealthy more populated and more military sophistication That's create conflicts within the borderlands. Too many people. So what are they forced to do?

They're forced to expand. And during this course of this expansion, they come to the conflict with the empire. And now and then, they will conquer the empire, become the new empire. That's a pattern. And it happens all over human history. Okay? This is how the Mongols conquered China. This is how the Montius conquered China. Before the Mongolians and Montius conquered China, there was trade. Chinese the Chinese Empire was using them as mercenaries. There was also a lot of small conflict. Does that make sense?

All right. So now that I explained the pattern, the question then is, why would this happen? Why would this happen? How is it possible for the borderlands, which again is only a fraction of the wealth, the population, and the resource of the empire? How are they able to conquer the empire?

And this is a really important lesson you will learn in this class, which is empires are destined to collapse. Empires must collapse. So why is that the case? In this class, you will learn there are three boundary conditions of all societies. Eventually, all societies must collapse for three reasons. All right. The first reason is elite overproduction.

Second reason is rat utopia. And the third reason is financialism. All right. So let me explain the first, financialism. What do I mean by that? All right. When a society first starts, it's important for people to contribute to its growth. Right?

I can do that by starting a farm. When I build a farm, I make goods. I'm creating welfare for the society, right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. doesn't make sense it's as much profitable much easier for you to be a capitalist than is to be an entrepreneur over time so this is very famous French economists his name is Thomas Pickety and he wrote a book called capital in 21st

century it's a very good book it's very easy to read and it's one of the most discussed books right now And he makes the argument why inequality happens. Aniquidity in society happens because of the nature of capital, the nature of money. What money does is it seeks to grow for the sake of growing. What's the best way for capital to grow by consolidating and charging rents. Does that make sense? So the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing.

They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers, right? So they lower prices and try to pay better food. But eventually, at some point, they figure out, hey, we're five restaurants, man. We can just get together and negotiate a cartel, a deal, where we charge all high price. prices, right? Then we make more money that way. It's something we call rent-sicking behavior, rent-sinking. Native rent-sicking is to create a monopoly which forces people to buy whatever prices you charge them, okay? That's the ultimate goal of industry or society or business, okay? To engage in rent-sicking behavior.

And over time, because capital consolidates, it's much more profitable to engage in capitalism than is to engage in entrepreneurship. Meaning you're a burden of actually investing in start market than you are in getting a job. In fact, what he shows is the return on financial capitalism is 5% a year. On average, if you put $100 in the start market, you make $5. But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning if you start a factory, then you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contributes real growth, real wealth economy, you're going to make 2%.

All right? And that's why if you go to America, and you will go to America, and you will go to America eventually, you'll find that young people, your age, they're not working. What are they doing? They're investing in Bitcoin. They're playing the real estate market.

They're investing in stocks. You understand? Because if you make more money doing that than you do by doing real work, by creating a company. You understand? In other words, your society

isn't producing any value. And as a result, your economy can't move on. Right? Doesn't make sense? And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're society and you want to continue, what do you're forced to do? Do you mean? No.

What do you do? Historically, what if society is done in order to get out of this situation where financialism has destroyed your society? Make war guys. You understand? Because you make war, you destroy things. We destroy things, you are forced to rebuild things. It doesn't make sense.

That's why we have war. Because war means a game reset. It allows society to rebuild itself. Okay? So that's the first idea I want you guys to understand. Over time, this is the economy matures to a point where everyone becomes a renter

or sorry a rent-ter you're trying to be a landlord and you're trying to charge people to use your land you don't want to work this is true throughout the world right in China it's the same thing throughout Chinese history

right now in the West it's the same thing as well and at that point you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society or your society will continue to decline okay So the first boundary condition, one society must die. Second boundary condition is the idea of rat utopia.

So we discussed this a bit last semester. I want to refresh your memory. Rat utopia is an experiment that's been done many time. But the idea is this. What happens to rats in a perfect world? Normally rats have an extremely ritualized society. So for example, if you want to mate, okay, what male rats do is they go on top of a mound, where all the female rats can see them, right?

And the rats, the male rats, start to dance, okay? They did dance really, like, in a very strange way. But that attracts the attention to the female. The male rats sees the attention of a female rat, and the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will start running again, and he will start chasing her.

And then she'll run back into her furrow again. And they do this multiple times until eventually the female rat lets him catch her, and then they will have sex, and they'll be married and have children. Okay, so that's rat society. It's no different from human society, right? You like a girl or a boy, you guys go out for a coffee date, then a lunch date, then a dinner date, then eventually after a couple of years you might have sex

and get married and have children, okay? No different. It's a very heavily rich-lized society. What experimenters did was, they asked themselves, what would happen if we made a perfect world where no one had to fight for food every day food would come down from the heavens and all the rats could do whatever they want

they would have complete freedom this is what we call it rat utopia it turned out all society collapsed it was a complete disaster the male rats start to rape female rats there's no more like playing around there's no more ritual it was all just and murder. It was a complete breakdown of society. Why did this happen? There are many different theories, but one thing that you need to understand about rats and humans is we all like status. Status. Okay, the idea is this. We humans, we're all standing in line to go

onto a mountain top, okay? The mountain top, everyone respects you, you make a lot of money, you feel good about yourself and we're all standing in line and this line takes a long time but eventually you will get to the mountaintop this is how this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up okay does that make sense but what happens when the people on the mountaint don't die well you're just stuck in line when you're stuck in line I'm not sure if you've been stuck in line for like hours and hours but you get angry, right? You get frustrated.

So what do you do? Well, you hit someone behind you. And then that person gets angry and hits you back, okay? Eventually, that's this line, everyone's funny each other. And people at the mountain top are enjoying each other, are enjoying the view, they have status, and they're never going to die. They're never going to fall off.

And this is our society today, guys. Okay? The people of power in China, in the United States, all around the world, have been there for a long, long time, and they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tang Ping, Bailan, right?

Quite quitting, lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires you to achieve a certain level in society. But those positions are being occupied by people who refuse to die. And as a result, society collapses. Young people refuse to...

They refuse to work, they refuse to get married and have children. So you study dies. You understand. So Radutopia is the second boundary condition. Does that make sense, guys? You're seeing this all around the world today, all right? Ask yourselves, why is it that you yourself are not motivated? And the answer is, you really don't see an opportunity to climb to the top and enjoy status.

You just don't. Because they aren't dying. This is not. And why? Because we've achieved a certain level of abundance and wealth that allows people to keep on living. Okay? Does that make sense?

Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as Ratatopia. But Ratatotopia is a conflict between the half and the half-nots.

Elite overproduction is the conflict among the halves, okay? They're very wealthy. Because even though there's a certain number, a limited number of status positions, too many elite people are being produced. Okay? So it's not only that the children of poor people

are being schooled over in the system, it's the children of the elite are being schooled over in the system. And this question, conflicts in the system because the poor can't do anything they can just fight each other in line but the elite can do something they can go war against each other they can monopolize they can start killing each other okay this great civil war in fact if you are to look at America today you can stay there's a civil war going on between two different

factions of the elite Doesn't make sense. And this is what drives a lot of history, where a lot of revolutions happen not because the poor are trying to overthrow the rich, it's because the low nobility is fighting for opportunities against the upper nobility. It doesn't make sense, guys. We're seeing this again today in China and also in the United States. All right, so these are the three main boundary conditions. So now let's apply to these three boundary conditions and ask yourselves why empires collapse.

Well the first reason is because most people in the empire don't want to live there. They're just stuck living there. Why do most people don't want to live there? Because they are in debt. Okay? Debt and landlessness. Throughout most of human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and

suffers from too much landlessness, no opportunities. Okay? Then what happens is the elite starts fighting amongst themselves. There's corruption. Why is there corruption? Because the elite are struggling to engage. engage in rent-seeking behavior amongst themselves. They're trying to steal more, there's certainly more and more.

So there's corruption. There's civil conflict, and there's corruption. So it's only a matter of time before the empire collapses. But during this time, what does the empire do? It's really strange and funny, but what they do is this. They import the people from the borderland in order to try to resolve their civil conflicts. It doesn't make sense.

You can't trust the army anymore, because the army is made up of people who have too much debt and who are landless. So what do you do? You hire four mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history.

You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army with foreign mercenaries. And then, eventually, what happens? The four mercenaries take over your empire. That's what happened in Rome. That's what happened throughout human history.

Okay, so now that we discuss the empire, I want to look at the borderlands. Why is it true that the borderlands are able to conquer the empire? And my argument to you is cultural. sorry culture it's cultural all right so we have this prejudice or misunderstanding about civilization all right civilization civilization civilization is about cities it's about writing it's about technology it's about wealth and if you look at it that way then you don't really understand why is it these Boroughlands the Mongolians the

the Brahmaeans, the Jews, the Vikings, the Arabians, the Greeks. Why are they able to conquer these empires? That makes no sense to you. So what I'm trying to say you is, what I'm trying to tell you is, this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's certain culture that develops because it's a borderlands.

It's a culture that focuses on freedom. Egalitarianism and self-reliance, independence. This is true for out the borderlands, okay? If we were to go back to Mongolia during the time of Genghis Khan, if we were to go back to the European north of the time of Vikings, these are cultures that emphasize freedom, egalitarianism, and self-reliance. And as such, these were amazing warriors. Okay?

So let's look at an example. Let's look at the Vikings, okay? The Vikings didn't know how to read or write. They didn't have any mathematics, they didn't have cities. But from age two or three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to roll boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. That doesn't make sense.

And what are civilized? kids doing they're learning how to do test questions right in a war who's gonna win well obviously these guys okay does that make sense so these are the this is the idea of the oceanic currents okay you have these isolated areas that are ecosystems amongst themselves as the empire expands okay just think of it as a current you know the imperial current it's expanding expanding and so that's what empires do it energizes these areas and these areas actually have much more energetic potential than the empire which is dying okay

and this energy forces so much energy in this borderlands that they are now become like a hurricane and they have to ride through history sometimes they're defeated but sometimes like the Greeks like the Vikings the Vikings Like the Mongolians, like the Arabians, they win. And when they win, they create a lot of destruction, okay? And that's the idea I want to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable.

Once they start, you cannot stop them. Okay, this war in Ukraine, it is a hurricane that will engulf all. of Europe. This war in the Middle East is a hurricane that will engulf the entire world. Once it starts, you can't have a conference and decide to end it. These things cannot end until they reach their natural course. The hurricane stopped when it runs out of energy. That doesn't make sense.

The hurricane does not negotiate with you and say, oh, well, you make a very good case for why I shouldn't destroy you, so I'll just stop. Hurricanes don't do that. These are natural forces. This is what I will show you this semester. And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looking at the complete under destruction of the world we live in today. nothing will be the same because these are oceanic currents they destroy everything its path once you unleash them they must destroy it's only a question of how much right all right was this clear to you guys any questions anything you want to

any anything you want me to clarify or elaborate again I know this is a big theory but we will be doing a lot of examples throughout the course of the semester all right and this will give you a unified theory of history and you'll see how everything connects together right any questions oh that's a good question okay what starts these hurricanes or what starts this process all right so if you look at ocean you will discover that these currents are happening all the time you're saying there's no start they're always in motion all right so Once you start an empire, you're starting already to unleash a hurricane in the borderlands.

Once the hurricane matures on the borderlands, it will overgo an empire, which will then start to energize a new borderland. Does that make sense? So that's a really good question. And unfortunately, the answer is there will always be hurricanes. Hurricanes are always forming. You just have to figure out where they're forming in order to predict where they're coming from. Okay? But obviously the two big hurricanes right now are what's happening in Ukraine and what's happening

in Israel in the Middle East. But other hurricanes are coming, okay? For example, there will eventually be a conflict in East Asia. Now a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the United States. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it would involve Japan and South Korea. It will not be over the Taiwan straight.

It will be between, it will involve South Korea and Japan. How so I don't really know? Another conflict is what's happened in America. America is itself a hurricane. Eventually America will have to fight a civil war. When you go to America, you will see how divided the country is. All right? And people are already predicting a civil war. It's the only question of when. I think things will speed up in 2028. And the reason why is the election in 2028 will be heavily contested. People are going to argue over who won.

And it'll be very clear who won in 2028. And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay. But I think these are two big currents that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along the way. The big scary hurricane, of course, is Iran. Eventually, the United States and Iran will come to conflict with each other. And this will drag in the entire world. Does that make sense to you, Eva? Okay, thanks for the question. Any more questions?

And so it overwhelms the empire. That's a great question, okay? All right, so we have to figure out what is driving a hurricane. And the answer is the internal conflicts within the borderlands. the borderlands. It doesn't make sense. So there's just too many people, and there's just not enough status positions.

So they go off and they conquer their own territory, right? So if you look at the Vikings, the Vikings, the Vikings are interesting. The Vikings, which will discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there, okay? They were in the north, in Denmark,

in Norway, in Sweden, and they basically kept it themselves. They still traded the world, but we didn't really know much about them okay and then they started to come out of nowhere and they did three things they went over to colonize Greenland and Iceland all right and they also went to actually North America so they were actually the first Europeans to reach North America so one that showed that they had was to expand and explore

and colonize okay but then you also had a group of Vikings Northmen who went to attack France and they were so such a huge problem that the French decided to give them their own land called Normandy, okay, Normandy, the land of the North people, Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the Denver River because they were trading with the Islamic Empire.

And they found it colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful plus. a peaceful process okay because they're trying to establish trading poles and this became the basis of which country do you guys know russia okay you see people will call the ruse i actually don't know what ruse means but it just means ruse and that's where russia comes from so this beginning of a new country called russia all right and normandy is interesting because they eventually went off to conquer a new country called do you guys know Who they conquered?

Who do the Normans conquer? 1066, guys. England. Britain. All right? You understand? So the hurricane stops when the people just run up energy because they've reached a point where they can't go on, okay?

The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these things. status positions okay this is this actually what drives empire building does that make sense it's not because you lack resources it's because you have too many people who want status you can't fill them you can't let leave them in society because then they will overflow you so you send them somewhere else okay all right good is that clear echo great any more questions great okay okay so

I hope this was clear we will continue discussing this throughout the throughout the semester because this becomes a framework for which we understand all of European history for the past 2,000 years, okay? So next class we'll do the Roman Empire, the fall and decline of the Roman Empire, which will lead us into the rise of something called the Holy Roman Empire, which is not the Roman Empire,

it's basically the French Empire, okay? It's basically the French Empire, or the Frankish Empire. And the French Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right. All right, so those are the next three classes. All right. Great.