Predictive History - The Story of "Civilization", "Secret History", "Game Theory" and more - Civilization #39 - Genghis Khan, World Shatterer

Episode Date: October 7, 2025

Civilization #39 - Genghis Khan, World Shatterer

Good morning. Today we will do Gannes Khan and the Mongolian Conquest. Now, as you know, the Mongols have a terrible reputation for their brutality, for their atrocities. Today, I want to make the argument to you that what they did, given their circumstances, given the constraints they were under was actually logical and understandable. Okay? So that's the argument I will make to you today. All right, so the Mongols.

The Mongols, as you know, they are step people. The step are divided into the Western steps and the Eastern steps. And they try, they basically go from Hungary, in Europe all the way to what is modern-day Mongolia. And as we discuss, step culture is very different from agricultural culture that we find in the Lavaj, in Anatolia, Mesopotamia, and in China. In the grasslands, the economy is what we call nomadic, pastoral, meaning they will raise cattle as their source of food, and they will travel wherever there is grassland.

Okay, so they, and because of their economy, they have developed a certain culture. They are extremely violent. Their society, their culture is based around violence. And there's a lot of competition within these certain groups. So rather than think of these people as a nation or a race of people, it's better to think of them as a culture. And for the longest time, throughout human history, they have been divided among many different tribes. Throughout human history, the nomadic pastoral people of the steps have always been in conflict with the agricultural emigual. So in response, the agricultural empires, China and the Persians, they have built walls and fortifications to counter their threat.

So as you can see, the Mongols will eventually come south and invade most of China. And historically, the response has been the great wall of China. But also in Central Asia, the step people have been a thread as well, and they have built fortified cities as a response. Okay? So even though the step people and their agricultural empires have always been in conflict, the Mongols have had a unique reputation in Western history as the most brutal, as the most violent. So the question we're looking at today is, why were the Mongols unique in their brutality? Okay, so there are lots of things that were said about the Mongols that we now know today are not true. Okay, so for example, back in the day, they had a reputation for cannibalism.

They ate their opponents. They ate their enemies, and we know that's not true today. They also had a reputation for being devious. So, for example, when they approached an enemy, they would hold the cross. The cross is a symbol of Christianity. So the Christian enemies would see this and think that they are allies. And only when they discovered that these are actually Mongols, by then it was much too late. So the Mongols had a reputation for being extremely devious.

They had a reputation for wanton brutality. They would destroy entire cities and kill all the people. Previously historians believed they killed about 65 million people. Today that figure is disputed. But if that was the case, then the Mongols killed more people than any other. regime in human history before the 20th century. Gainescon is considered the greatest conqueror in human history. So the statistic that suppresses everyone is one out of 200 males today, they're a direct descendant

of Genghis Khan. So that's a 16 million people, okay? 16 million males in the world are direct descendants. of getting as caught. So that is the reputation that the Mongols had for most of history. And what I want to show you today is the Mongols are not unique among the steps people. And the way they behaved, there was a strategy, there's a logic to the way they behaved, given the circumstances and constraints they found themselves under. Okay, so as you know in this class, the step people were the greatest conquerors in human history.

So this started with the Amnaya, who were based in the Ukraine area. And we know the Yamaya, who are also referred to as the proto-Indo-Europeans, as well as the Aryans. They spread throughout most of the Western world. So they went to Europe. And as you know, they basically replaced entire male population of Europe. And they intermarry with the local woman to create European culture. They also went south and conquered Iran and India. And then they went over to the eastern steps as well.

So it's really important for us to remember. And I know this is hard, but the Mongol people, they are culturally more similar to the Yamaya than they are to the Chinese. Even though genetically, the Mongols may be more similar to the Chinese. In this class, we focus on cultural values rather than genetic affinity. Okay. So over time, what will happen to the Western steps is it will slow. slowly acclimatize itself to the surrounding agricultural empires. And slowly the Western steps will become integrated into the agricultural neighbors.

So the example here is Scyphia. So Scyphia is slowly, it's an empire, it's a step empire, but slowly it's about to integrate itself into what is modern day Eurasia. From the Scyphians, you will have arise something called the Median Empire, which will then give way to the Persian Empire. Over in the Eastern Steps, the steppeople come in conflict with the Han Dynasty. And the Hong Dynasty, as we know from last class, is really the last ethnically Chinese dynasty. and they are intent on a policy of eradication against the step people. So they come into a conflict with the step people who are now called the shong nu. And what this conflict will do is drive these people west.

And this is interesting for us because when they go west, they will splinter off into different groups. When they go all the way to Europe, they will be known as the Huns. You may know Attila the Huns. Well, Attila Hun is what's the leader of these people. The Huns will drive the Western Step people, meaning the Goths, into the Roman Empire, causing conflict with the Roman Empire. And the Goths will become the foundation of modern-day Europeans. Okay.

So this is the Hun Empire at its peak when it's in conflict with the Roman Empire. The steppe people, the Huns, will also give rise to a bill called the Gortchic Empire. And they will sweep down and they will become the Seljuk Turks, which will take over Mesopotamia. And then eventually you will have emerged the Ottoman Empire from these people. So in other words, the Mongols are just the most successful iteration of the state. people and their conflicts with the agricultural empires. So the Mongol Empire is the second largest empire ever in human history. Only the British Empire had more land.

The Mongols were the largest contiguous empire, meaning it was all interconnected together. All right. At its height, the Mongol empire extended from basically what is modern day Russia all the way to China. The empire that will take over the Mongols centuries later is the Russian Empire. The Russian Empire will take over a lot of Mongol territory. Because it is so large, after the death of Genghis Khan and his son, Ogaday, the The Mongol Empire will splinter into four major empires.

And these four major empires themselves will assimilate and integrate into the local culture. The Golden Horde will eventually give rise to the Russian Empire. The UN dynasty will eventually fall and give rise to the Russian Empire. to the Ming Empire. So even though they conquer a lot of territory, ultimately their empire is not sustainable. And later on, I will explain to you why it was not sustainable and why ultimately the Mongol Empire declined.

But while it was still in place, it creates something called the Pax Monagolica. This is Latin for the Mongol Peace. You've heard of the Pax Romana. We are now living in the Pax Americana. So the Mongolian. created something called a Paxe Monagalaka, which is meant they believed in globalization. They wanted their conquered nations to trade with each other because they could collect

taxes on the trade and they encouraged people, especially merchants, to travel across their empire and trade with each other. And during this time, a very famous Italian named Marco Polo had a chance to visit the world, and his travels, especially those to China, capture the imagination of Europeans. This is really the first time that China figured into the European imagination. So this is a map of Marco Polo's travels. And as you can see, he basically traveled all across the Pax... Mongol leak out. Okay? The problem though is that when you integrate the war like this, you also give rise to disease. So the black death

traveled all across the world. Okay, so we believe the black death originated in Central Asia and in a place we call Kuzikistan today and it traveled all over the Mongol Empire. It made its way to Europe and it devastated Europe and it devastated Europe. I It killed anywhere between a third to half of the entire population of Europe. It traveled also to the former Islamic Empire and it traveled to China, but it was not as devastating. It's very important for us to understand. The black debt was devastating for Europe, but it was not that devastating for China and the Islamic Empire. And the reason why is sanitation and hygiene. So in China and in the former Islamic Empire, their cities were pretty well organized, pretty wealthy, pretty civilized.

But in Europe, their streets were literally filled with manure. They had horses, they didn't have sanitation, people just threw shit onto the streets. And so like when you walk the streets, they were literally covered with shit. And in that sort of environment, disease is spread very rapidly. But the black death is important for us also because it will give rise to the Renaissance, which we'll do next week. So about the Black Death, historians believe the Renaissance could not have happened. The Black Death basically meant a reset of European society,

and it allowed massive innovation in Europe. So as you can see, the Black Death was extremely devastating for Europe. After the Mongols will come another great conqueror called Timmer Lane, Timberlane, and he will be the last great conqueror from the steps. After Timerland, the agricultural empires will develop the technology to repel the sept invaders, mainly gunpowder, okay? The technology and mass armies will overwhelm the step people, and eventually over time, the agricultural nations, mainly,

Russia will start to colonize and conquer the steps. Okay, so let's look at today at Genghis Khan, who is the founder of the Mongol Empire. Ganga Khan will, first of all, unite the warring tribes of the Mongol people. He'll turn them into a confederation. And then the Confederation will aim to conquer China, but then it will come in a conflict with the Central Asian nations. And so Genghis Khan will embark on the Central Asian campaigns that are brutal. He'll wipe out entire cities. He'll kill all inhabitants.

And he will lay the foundation for the Mongol conquest that will follow after him. Okay, and again, after the death of his son, Okinae, the Mongols were split into four major factions, and they will attempt to continue the legacy of conquest. But what happened is after they conquered the Song Empire in 1279, they will attempt to conquer Japan and Vietnam. And when they try to do so, they will be repelled. They try to conquer Japan twice, and even though the legend is that Japan was saved by the Kamakazi, right, the great divine win, I will show you that's actually not true. There's another reason why the Mongols stopped invading Japan. So in the East, they've reached the limit of their conquest.

They tried to conquer India as well, but when they tried to do so, they were repelled. And historians argue about the reason why this is the case. Some believe it was because of the climate of India. Some believe it was because of, some because the southern of Delhi had a organized and concerned response. Some other believed it was just internal fighting, okay? When they tried to reach Europe,

they will try to conquer Poland and Hungary. And even though they win every single battle against the Poles and Hungarians, they will ultimately turn back and that will be the limit of their conquest in the West. So the Mongolian fighting style is great when you fight in flat plains. These are horsemen with bowls, okay? So they're fast, they can cover great distances. But when they try to reach Europe and Europe is thick forests, right?

they really can't conquer that terrain. One really stunning event is when they try to conquer Egypt. Remember, Egypt for the longest time was the wealthiest part of the Western world. But when they try to conquer Egypt, they run into a people called the Mamukes, who fight very similarly to the Mongols. In fact, the Mamukes originally from the steps as well. And for the first time, the Mongols will be defeated militarily. on the battlefield.

And this sort of destroys the aura of inevitability and invincibility that the Mongols had for the longest time. And this will be the extent of their conquest in the West. And after these conquests, the Mongol Empire will try to rule their respective empires, but ultimately they will fail. And later on, I'll explain to you why they were doomed. to fail. And the irony is the reasons that gave rise to the empire are also a reason why their empire ultimately collapsed. Okay. So I want to first talk about Genghis Khan.

And so we don't know much about Genghis Khan. What we do know comes from a book called The Secret History of the Mongols. So it is an oral history of the life and time of Genghis Khan and his son Ogeday. Now, the story in the secret history is suspicious, and it's suspicious because it fits very well into the structure of proto-Indere European myth. So let me show you how it's similar. In the secret history, Genghis Khan, his mother,

and again, they are in the Mongolian grasslands. His mother is about to be wed to her husband. So she's in her carriage and she's along the way to her husband's tribe. But along the way, she is ambushed and kidnapped. That's a very common thing in that culture. The way that you obtain a wife is by stealing someone else's wife. And so she's forced to marry a stranger. But the stranger, Genghis Khan's eventual father, dies when Genghis Khan is eight years.

years old. When the father dies, the tribe abandons the mother and her young children, so they're forced to fend for themselves. Eventually, the mother finds a way to find a supporting tribe and gets getting us con slowly finds mentors for protection. He eventually finds a mentor who becomes his best friend. And this friend's best friend's name is, Jermokha, and the two together are great warriors and they conquer a lot of terror together. In fact, when Genghis Khan's wife is stolen by a tribe, the two will raise off and get the wife back. But by this time, Genghis Khan's wife is pregnant with another man's son. Genghis Khan raised the son as his own, and he made the son

here to his empire, which will cause great difficulties when Genghis Khan dies. Okay? But that just shows you the generosity of this met. Eventually, Genghis Khan will run into conflict with Jemoka. And the two are competing for control of the Mongol world. Genghis Khan kills him to achieve his dominance. And Genghis Khan will overthrow the existing Mongolian social order. Basically, all these top chieftains, all these top shamans, he will kill in order to unite the Mongol people and bring about a new social order. So that's the story that we have from the secret history.

And that's very similar, by the way, to other founding myths of other people. Like, for example, let's look at Rome, okay? So remember last semester we discussed Virtue's Inniad, okay? And it's about the founder of Rome, his name is Inean. Ineus. Ineus is a prince of Troy and he has to watch the destruction of Troy. He escapes the sacking of Troy where everyone is killed, but he gets lost at sea. Eventually he stumbles under Carthage where he falls in love with a queen there named Dido.

But the gods demand that he leaves Dido, the woman that he loves and he's married, and he does. He betrays Dido who then kills herself. And then he goes to Italy where he has to fight a war in order to establish the children people on Italy and they will eventually give rise to the Roman people. So it's a very similar structure, the story of Genghis Khan. Let's go to another story from Rome. So the founder of Rome is named Romulus, who was direct descendant of Inius.

So there's a king called Numitor and his brother, Amelius usurips the throne and once Amelius usurps the throne he puts Numitor's daughter into a temple and makes her a virgin okay but Mars the war guard Mars visits her and impregnance her with twins Numerator demands the twins be killed and the twins are left alone by the Tiber River okay and everyone thinks that they will drown but they are Marraxia and a she-wolf nurses them and a shepherd adopts them. Eventually they discover their true heritage

and they help their grandfather, Numerator, kill his brother, Amulis, and restore the throne. Then the two go off to found their own city, which is Rome, okay? But they're going to be one king, so the two fight, and Romulus kills his twin brother Remus. And then Romulus becomes Rome's first king, which will eventually give rise to the greatest empire in the European world. So as you can see, the structures are very similar. So let's go over very quickly the structure and meaning of proto-Indo-European myth.

The thing I want to remember is that what mythology ultimately is, it's a collective subconscious of a culture. culture. By understanding mythology, we can understand the fundamental values that underpin this culture. So what is the structure we're looking at? Okay, the structure is this. First, the gods favor of man over a divine mission. But the man himself does not understand this divine mission. Okay? The gods have picked this man for whatever reason, and this man must fulfill his divine mission. And in the process, he will suffer hardship to become as hard as a sword, okay? Hardship makes you committed, it makes you strong. And to recognize his mission,

okay? In the process, he's asking himself, why am I being persecuted? Why am I serving so much? And then eventually he will have an epiphany. He will recognize, oh, it's because of God have a mission for me that I must fulfill. That's why I'm suffering. That's why I'm being persecuted. It's to make me strong and committed. Okay. And he will sacrifice his beloved to prove his commitment to his divine mission. This is really important. In Proto-Indo-European myth, the hero must always sacrifice his beloved. So remember the story of Genghis Khan, he sacrifices, he kills his best friend, Jermoka.

And you think, okay, what's a big deal? Well, in that culture, when tours are best friends, they're not just friends, okay? They're basically lovers. They have sex with each other, and that's why they're such great warriors together. It's a very common thing. So remember the Iliad, where in the Iliad, Hector kills Patroclus, and Achilles becomes so enraged that he goes and kills Hector. So why did Achilles become so enraged?

Because Patroclus was his best friend, which at that time everyone understood to mean Patroclus and Achilles were lovers. Achilles loved Patroclus. So when Gaines Khan killed Jamaka, he was basically killing the man he loved the most in this world. That's a very important part of Proto-Induro-European myth. You have to show your commitment by making the ultimate sacrifice, which means killing the person you love the most.

And once he does that, he will shatter the old world to build a new one. a new one. That is a divine mission. The gods do not like this world. They want a flood to destroy this world in order for the world to be made anew. And this man, the Messiah, he is the one who will shatter the old world. He's the world shatterer. He's the flood sent by the gods. So that's a basic structure of proto-Indo-European myth. And when we understand this, Now what we can do is understand the power of the Jesus' story within Christianity. Why is Christianity the most influential and popular religion in the world? It has to do with the story of Jesus.

In the story of Jesus, according to the Gospel of Mark, let's look at the structure. It's very similar to proto-Indo-European mythology. Jesus has a secret divine mission, okay? He's sent by God, or He is God, come. who's come to redeem the world. He must suffer persecution in doubt, okay? So everyone doubts who he is.

No one knows who he is. He's laughed at, he's mocked, okay? He then is sacrificed to wake the world. He kills himself. He is sacrificed so that everyone knows how much God loves them. And with God's sacrifice, this cycle of violence ends and a new history begins, okay?

So in proto-Indo-European myth, what's important is that, You kill your beloved. But the founding myth of Christianity is, no, I kill myself to show you that violence is terrible. Once God has killed himself, once God has sacrificed himself, it means that all violence now must cease. The cycle of violence, the cycle of using violence to redeem the world, to cleanse the world, must come to an end. And that's the very idea, foundational idea of Christianity. And so what Christianity is doing, and it's very clever, is it's seeking the collective subconscious

that's embedded in every individual and implanting a new idea within the subconscious that grows and grows. It's almost like a virus until people recognize that violence is bad. Proto-Indo-European mythology celebrates violence, right? Christianity believes violence is the worst thing. Okay, so let's, sorry, this is a bit, okay, all right, anyway, I'll just read it to, okay. So this is the ending of Mark, okay? Then Jesus gave a loud cry and breathed his last, okay?

So he's been sacrificed, he's died. And the curtain of the temple was torn into from top to bottom. The temple is the second temple in Jerusalem, where Yahweh is. And at the very top of this temple is a room called the Holy of the Holies. That's where God lives. And the curtain is what hides God from the world. So when Jesus dies, the curtain now is torn in half, meaning God is now released into the world, which means that everyone now has access to God.

God is now on earth. Now when the centurion, the soldier, who stood facing him, saw that in this way, he breathed his last, he said, truly, this man was God's son. So the first person that Jesus revealed himself to was a Roman soldier. The first person that recognized the truth of Jesus and the power of sacrifice was a Roman soldier who's always been taught that violence. is the answer to everything. And once he's converted, he recognizes that violence is wrong and evil. So that's a power of this mythology.

Does that make sense, you guys? All right. So now I want to look at real history, because this is mythology. And what I want to do now is show you that Genghis Khan fits into a pattern of a great conqueror. If you look at all the great conquerors of human human history and I'll list four right now okay Sargon of Akit Philip of Macedon Julius Caesar and Gans Khan you will see they are very very similar okay so

let's start on Arcad remember before in Mesopotamia it was divided into the Samarian city states that warred with each other and these these were walled cities because these were walled cities they couldn't really conquer each other okay Sargon of Akit figured a way to conquer everyone and build the first empire in world history called the Akkadian Empire so we don't know much about him but this is what we know first of all he was probably a mercenary okay it's very common back then to be a mercenary because the city states were at war with each other always he was a cup bearer to the king or

Zaba of Kish Kish is one of the city states in Samaria now guys cup bearer is a very important position a cup bearer means that when you're at the king and you have a feast or a festival for your people the cup bearer is a man who stands beside you and pours you the alcohol the wine right which means this is the man you trust the most so what's it mean for Sargon Ak had to be a cup bearer well it probably means that there were lovers the king and Sargon were lovers who loved each other deeply okay but that doesn't prevent Sargon from killing the king and taking the throne which starts this massive war

in a city-state in which Sargon will eventually triumph okay well so the thing about Sargon is he is really good at winning the favor of mentors right and ultimately he will betray mentors in order to achieve his ambition well that's also true for Philip of Macedon so Philip of Massadon he's a prince of Macedon and And at this time in the Greek world, Thieves was a dominant military power. Thieves defeated Macedon in a battle, and Thieves demanded hostages.

So Philip was sent as a hostage to Thieves, where he is now mentored by the greatest military strategies of this time named Ipemai notice, okay? And so Philip the second is learning how to win battles. He's learning all the major military innovations of this time, from the greatest general of this time. And then what he will do is he will return to Macedon,

reorganize the Macedon army, and then take them to conquer Thieves, as well as the entire Greek world at the battle of Sharania. Okay? Well, this pattern is also true for Julius Caesar. At this time, which is about like 50 BC in Rome, Pompey the Great is the greatest general. is general. He's the man that everyone admires. He has most political power. So what Julius Caesar does is he marries his daughter to Pompey the Great, and this forms a political alliance between

the two. Pompey the Great grants him generalship of the prongs of gold where Julius Caesar will win military glory. It basically establishes the power, prestige, and fame of Julius Caesar. And this will start a civil war in which Julius Caesar will defeat his mentor Pompey at the Battle of Farselas. Versal and a pattern. Well the same is also true for Genghis' crowd. He is mentored by two chieftains, Jamaka and Togo, and he will defeat both in order to gain leadership of the Mongol world.

So it shows you how ruthless and ambitious these great Congress are. But at the same time, let's remember this. Philip II had a really talented subordinate in Parmenia. Parmenian was really the person in charge of the Macedon army. In fact, it was Parmenian who was most responsible for Alexander Great's conquest of Persia. Julius Caesar had a talent subordinate in Titus Labinius, who was responsible for his victories in gold. And then Genghis Khan had a talent subordinate in Supertai, who was considered one of the greatest military strategist ever okay and so what this tells us is they're able to have they're able to

exercise tremendous judgment in people they know who to trust they know who not to trust they know who is talented and who is not talented they know how to how to win the loyalty of their subordinates okay that's a very impressive skill and then the question then is how is it possible that they are ruthlessly and vicious at the same time they able to delegate power in a very effective manner and the answer is they all believe they have a divine mission their goal is not to conquer the world their goal is to change the world for the better as demanded by the gods does that

make sense that's the only way we can understand this each in their own way believe they are the Messiah sent by the gods to shadow the world so that so that it can be built anew. And that's what drives them to kill their beloved. And that's what drives them to do what they do, okay? All four, ultimately, they are able to conquer the world because they develop a professional, meritocratic, and innovative army.

What does professional mean? It means that, look at Sagan of Akit. At this time, there are no professional stories. Most people were farmers and you only fought off-season. You might fight two, three months of the year. Sargon of Akkad was the first to say, nope, we will have professional soldiers. Everyone else will pay taxes in order for me to pay my professional army,

but these are professional soldiers. They are full-time soldiers at war. Miotratic means the system before was the number of the military was the nobility always had a priority. The nobility was always right. And Sargon of Akkid made the system more open and fair and meritocratic. So if you were talented and you were brave,

you could rise within the ranks of the army, regardless of your heritage and your background. Innovative means they were always adapting and learning. So Sarin of Akid was able to conquer the Samarian city states, which again were walled by adopting siege warfare, which was unheard of before. And the same is true for Philip, Julius Caesar, and Genghis Khan. So again, Genghis Khan fits into a pattern here

of what these great conquerors look like. Does it make sense to you guys? Any questions? So far. All right, let's continue. Okay. Now I want to discuss why the Mongols did what they did. Okay?

Why did the Mongols commit so many atrocities? What was the logic or reasoning behind their brutality? All right. In order for me to do so, I'm going to introduce you today a new analytical model called game theory. Okay? The idea of game theory is this.

All human reaction can be perceived as a game in which two people, at least two people are playing, and they're trying to defeat each other. So, for example, let's just say, you know, these two guys are fighting each other, okay? They want to kill each other. Now, according to game theory, each person has a distinctive optimal structure. strategy, okay, it's called optimal strategy. Optimal strategy is, given the constraints of your circumstance, what is the best way for you to win? Okay, so if you're the big guy, okay, this is the big guy, he wants the game to be fair,

which is like, let's just arrange to fight at a certain time and we'll fight, okay? And he wants to use this strategy because he is most likely to win. And if you're this guy, a small guy, right, let's call him A and you're fighting B, you don't want to do that because you're bound to lose. So what you do is you figure out of time when B is most vulnerable. Maybe when he's asleep or he's eating and you attack him then, okay? You basically have to cheat in order to win. So each individual has a distinctive ultimate strategy, all right?

Now this sounds easy, but it's not because often there are multiple players in the game. You have C and you have D. And when you have multiple players in the game, you have to think about alliances and coordination. So it's possible that A and D will form a alliance to attack B, which will force B and C to form an alliance, okay? But once maybe C and B kill off D, then A and C will form a alliance to kill off B.

So what this tells us is not only does each person have an optimal strategy given the constraints of the game but this other one strategy will change according to the circumstances all right also what's important first remember is that there are there are always these external constraints external constraints might be just weather or weapons or whatever okay so game theory sounds easy but it's extremely It's complicated because you always have to switch perspective in order to better understand why this person is doing what he or she is doing Okay, doesn't make sense.

All right, so let's look at Game Theory and apply it to the Mongols. Okay, remember, the Mongols are a borderland people and they're fighting empires. And remember, if you're a borderland, okay, borderland empire, you have three, you have three, you have three, you have three, distinct advantages okay you have energy you're open and you're opportunistic okay these are the three advantages that you have as a borderland people like the Mongols as an empire your three advantages are mass you have a lot of people you have organization you have death okay so it seems so so again given the strings it is not that easy to determine who will win.

But we're trying to figure out the mentality of the Mongols. We know the Mongols have these three strings, and they're trying to defeat the empire, which has these three strings. At the same time, we have to remember the Mongols themselves have three fundamental weaknesses that they must compensate for if they are to win. So let's go over their major constraints.

The first constraint that they have is, excuse me, low population. There are not that many of them. In fact, they're often outnumber, often 100 to 1. So it's a major constraint. When Gennon's Connors alive, at his height, he had anywhere between 100,000, 100,000 to 200,000 troops. The second constraint is the idea of distance and geography.

What I mean by that is the Mongols have to fight over huge territory. because Central Asia is a huge land right and this is problematic because of supply issues supplies what this means is if you are the Mongols the thing that you cannot ever fight is a war of attrition a war of attrition just means a long war in which in which you're trying to deplete the other person's resources you're the if you're the among those the worst thing that can ever happen to you is if you're stuck in a war of attrition If the siege is too long, the war lasts for too long, okay? Because eventually you'll run out soldiers.

So that's what the Mongols fear the most. Okay? So distance. The last thing, this is really important, is governance. Governance just means the Mongols are nomadic people who do not know how to govern other people. So they don't be stuck in a situation where they're forced to govern other people.

Okay? Does that make sense? And what this means is the idea of whole territory. When you conquer a new land, what you usually do is you put in place a new regime. They can't do that because they don't have the personnel for that. They often don't even have the personnel for siege warfare, but what they will do is recruit Chinese engineers, Indian engineers, in order to implement siege warfare.

But bureaucrats are very hard to compensate. for okay so these are three fundamental weaknesses all the Mongol system low population that the fight long distances and therefore they have to worry about supplies and they don't know how to govern other people okay and if we do this okay we look at what the strengths are and we look at what their fundamental constraints are then we can figure out what their optimal strategy is okay so this is the outcome strategy for the Mongol The first is escalation dominance.

Okay, escalation dominance is this, okay? There's a concept in political science called escalation ladder. The escalation ladder, I mean, it's a very simple concept. It means, like, violence always escalates. So, for example, I get into an argument with someone, okay? Well, what first happens is we start to argue, but then eventually, this argument becomes much more heated we start to push each other okay then I might throw a punch if I was to punch back then I might bite him he might bite me back I might

pull it a knife he might pull it a gun okay this is called escalation ladder okay okay violence has to happen over time okay and this is fine if this is fine but the problem is what if you're fighting multiple people at once right so what you want to do is show other people that you are more dominant okay so if you insult me I'll put a gun on you and I'll shoot you okay let's the idea of escalation dominance I always have the capacity to inflict more damage on you than you could ever possibly inflict on me okay and that's why the mongols did what they did so what would often happen is the mongols would send a trade delegation to a nation to negotiate a trade deal and the

nation usually in Central Asia they would kill all the delegation in order to insult Genghis Khan and respond Genghis Khan would send his army to destroy the entire city burn down a city and kill everyone okay this idea of escalation dominance you have to prove escalation dominance if you are to to be a viable threat to everyone. So that's the first idea. Escalation dominance. Second idea is the idea of terror,

or what we call psychological warfare. If you are badly outnumbered in warfare, then you have to make people afraid to fight you. If you cannot govern people, if you don't know how to properly manage people, you have to make people afraid to rebel. So the Mongols were notorious for psychological warfare. So for example, what they would do

is this they would conquer some territory and to ensure the villagers would not ever rebel they would send one Mongol soldier into the village okay and this is one soldier and there might be a thousand villagers and then what this Mongol soldier will do is randomly kill some villagers he'll say hey you guys come over here line up and he starts killing people randomly okay and if the villagers ever rebel and kill him then the Mongols will come and kill everyone in the village. All right.

So that's idea of psychological warfare. But the Mongols do this to themselves as well. So the Mongols have a system where units are divided into units of 10. So 10 soldiers, and then these 10 soldiers times 10 will make up a unit. So what would happen is this. If ever in a battle, one soldier ran away from battle all of the people in these units would be executed okay but if if one unit ever ran away then the next unit one hundred of them would all be

executed okay so this gives everyone an incentive to make sure your fellow soldier does not run away okay so the Mongols had psychological warfare not just for other people but also for themselves and that's just the way the Mongols fought and they had to fight like this give even the fact they were greatly outnumbered, and they had to win quickly against their enemies. Right? Does that make sense?

And the last thing, which is the most important, is they had to create an aura of inability and invincibility. At this time, people were literally telling people, these Mongols are not human. They are demons. They have come from torturous. That's where we get the name Tartars. They have come from Tartris, hell, in order to kill everyone.

These are demons. Guess what, guys? The Mongols wanted this reputation. They did everything they could in order to promote this reputation because it gave them an aura of inevitability and invincibility. They could not be defeated. There's no point in trying to defeat them. So let's just give up.

And most did. Most said, like, the Mongols were able to conquer so much terror so fast because they had this aura of inevitability and invincibility, and most people just gave up. They just paid tribute. And if you didn't do so, then they would use escalation dominance and terror to kill everyone. And they would send refugees all around the world so everyone would know about the ferocity and brutality of the Mongols. Does that make sense, guys? So in other words, I had to say this, but according to game theory, everything the Mongols did, made complete sense.

In fact, it's their optimal strategy, okay? Given the circumstances, given the constraints, what they did was completely logical and reasonable, even though it resulted in the depths of tens of millions of people. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. Okay, so now let's discuss why their empire collapsed. All right, so there's a fundamental weakness in the entire Mongol

a lot more strategy approach. It's a great strategy if you are trying to conquer other people. But when you're trying to govern them, it's an issue. So, as we discussed, the mungo, The Mongols are great warriors like all step people because of their cultural values. This is a culture, okay, that emphasizes three things. First is freedom. Second is egalitarianism, okay?

And the third is self-reliance. So rather than think of the Mongol, the army, as a empire or organization, it's more like a confederation. People choose to join this Confederation because of the immense rewards that can be achieved through conquest. So this is a culture that values freedom, egalitarianism, and self-reliance, and therefore it makes great warriors. The problem, though, is the cultures they conquer were extremely hierarchies. where you have maybe the emperor at the top, a bureaucracy, and then peasantry at the very bottom. So the vast majority were peasants.

Now, I know this is hard for us to understand, but the reason why the Mongols were able to conquer these empires were almost a contempt for the... these empires. Does that make sense, guys? The Mongols have no respect for these empires. They thought they were weak, they thought they were corrupt and decadent, okay? So the Mongols were able to conquer them. Does that make sense? There's a contempt for them. The contempt is this. The underlying the optimal strategy of the Mongols is a concept that never existed in human history before. The concept is this. People,

are an infinite resource. Okay? So throughout most of the human history, people were the most valuable resource. There was not many of people around. Therefore, you have to treat people nicely if you want to maximize their productivity. Okay?

But where were the Mongols base? They were based in East Asia. They were based in China, basically. And in China, because of the empire, people were treated like an infinite resource. You could massacre them. You could send them off in human wave attacks. It didn't matter because they were an infinite resource.

And this idea never existed before in human history. And in the Western world, this concept is radically revolutionary. It was unimaginable, like you could do this. So remember, Julius Caesar, even though he, when he conquered Rome, He wasn't intent on masculine people. Why? Because people could be sold as slaves. That was the main way he made his fortune by selling the gulls as slaves.

But if you believe that people are an infinite resource, then you don't want them as slaves. You want to kill as many people as possible in order to inflict terror. So that's the issue with the Mongols. First of all, their value system not lent itself to... governing a hierarchy. They didn't know how to and they didn't want to. Also, much more problematic was their contempt for the local culture. If you have contempt for local culture, you're going to have problems managing the people. So in China during the UN dynasty,

the Chinese, there's a class system, the Mongols were the top, and the Chinese were at the very bottom, okay? The foreigners were sort of in between. And that just shows you the Mongol contempt for for Chinese people. And that's why ultimately the Chinese people rebelled against the Mongols. Right? Now eventually, the Mongol leadership

would recognize this problem. And they would try to adopt a Chinese-style bureaucracy. But a bureaucracy, and we discussed this, comes into contact with the nobility. Okay? Nobility. The nobility is intent on maintaining the Mongolian culture. They did not want to assimilate.

But the emperor recognized you have to assimilate if you are to have this empire. And because they couldn't agree, the nobility and the emperor couldn't agree, ultimately it led to the collapse of the Mongol Empire. Okay? All right. So that's the history of the Mongols. Any comments? Any questions? I know what Doug is. is. I know

have any questions yet, but, but, but, do you, do you want, you make a comment?

Because, like, I know you've studied the Mongols quite, quite, in, in detail.

I'm kind of scary because on YouTube but it's, okay, all right. Yeah. All right. So, yeah,

it's fine. Okay, any questions, guys? Like, I know this, there's a lot to take,

take in. So, you know, ask questions. Tell me where areas you are confused by. Okay. Yep. Yep. Yeah. It's all about three of the quality and self-reidine. Yeah.

The Mongol University can be oxford. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that's a great question. Okay. That's a great question. Okay. Vikings versus Mongols. Okay. Okay. All right. So, um, the Vikings and the Mongols all come from a proto-Indo-European culture but we know about culture is that it's very fluid and it will change

over time and it will adopt itself to the local cultures okay and so the Vikings were in Europe and the Mongols are near China okay and I just say like I think if I want to be a Viking or Mongol I prefer to be a Viking or Mongol I prefer to be a And the reason why is the Vikings never really adopted a belief that people were an infinite resource. They could because Europe was very poor. And the Vikings, regardless, even though they were brutal, they started respect for their opponents. They never developed a contempt for their opponents.

They're surrounded by the Byzantines, the Muslims, and their Europeans. These were great warriors. So the Vikings felt they had a lot to learn from these cultures. And in fact, ultimately, the Vikings will assimilate themselves into these cultures in different environments. So the Mongols are different though. The Mongols are based in East Asia, and they did ultimately adopt a belief that people are an infinite resource. They had tremendous contempt for Chinese culture, okay?

that changes you as a person. When you believe that people are an infinite resource and you are contemptuous of other cultures, it also, in a way, makes you contemptors of yourself, if that makes any sense. Okay? And so ultimately, that's why the Mongols

were not able to, even though they had tremendous wealth, they didn't really produce cultural monuments. We don't have... Like the Vikings, I mean, as I mentioned, the Vikings were fundamental development of Western civilization. The Mongols were not fundamental

development of any civilization. I mean, they caused a lot of havoc, and they were great conquerors, but they didn't leave a rich cultural legacy. So, and I think it has to do with the belief, like, people are an infinite resource. So, I would much prefer

to be a Viking. I would be much prefer to be enslaved by a Viking than a Mongol. Like if I were a slave, I would much rather be a slave to a Viking than a Mongol. If I were a slave to a Viking, and the Vikings would at least become my friend. They'd be like, hey, tell me about your culture or any stories that you can tell us. If you're a great storyteller, then they would make you, they would treat you very nicely, because you're helping them learn more about your culture, okay? The Mongols have absolutely no interest in other cultures. They're interested in conquering and exploiting other people.

I could be wrong, right? And I'm probably making these rationalizations. But I believe with the Vikings, there's a general curiosity about the world that comes from a general respect of other cultures. Whereas the Mongols were not curious about the world. They were intent on conquest and enslaving other people and exploiting other people. They were predators.

And again, that could be my prejudice. But based on my readings so far, that would be my belief. But please change my mind. Okay. All right, thanks for a question. Okay, great question. Any other questions? Or, sorry, so population, okay?

So the Mongol population is loosely defined. Do you understand? It's hard to say who's Mongol and who's not Mongol because that entire area has a similar culture and it's very hard to figure out where the borders are, okay? Like, yeah, okay, great question, okay, yeah. So you're right, so the Mongols are a low population, so why would they believe that people are infinite resource? And the answer is because they are always in contact with China, okay? So the Mongols were always in contact with China and And as I mentioned, the interaction happens in three ways, okay? The Mongols are working as either mercenaries for dynacies in China, or they are trading, or they're raiding and pillaging, okay?

So for centuries, there's been contact between China and the Mongols. So where did the Mongols learn the idea that people are infinite resource? Well, they learn it from China, right? And why did they learn from China? Because Chinese warfare was also predicated on the belief that people were an infinite resource. Does that make sense? So basically the entire idea of warfare in China

is I organized this person's army, I throw it on my opponent, okay? And if my entire army dies, guess what? I'll just go and I'll raise another present army and throw it on my opponent again. It's like human wafer attacks. We call this human wafer attacks. This was pioneering in China, okay?

And the Mongols just took it and used it everywhere else. Right? So if you're the Mongols and you're you're fighting this enemy and they're just throwing these peasants at you and you're killing them all, but no one cares Because then like a month later another present army comes at you okay? You quickly adopt the idea like people are an infinite resource Right? Does that make sense? In terms of like who can be a Mongol? Yeah, yeah Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, the Mongols were very over society like like if you had a benefit to the society and so for example if you're a Chinese teacher or a Chinese scholar or a Chinese engineer it or a Chinese

merchant they would quickly assimilate you okay and then they would kill everyone house okay so they're a pretty open society okay so so does that make sense okay great any more questions yes okay okay great okay okay so let's talk about mythology all right so again if you actually study mythology What you recognize is there's a structure that's very similar across many different cultures. Right? So if you look at Greek, if you look at Roman, Norse, Mongolian, okay? I can go on and on and on.

There's a very similar structure, even though the characters might be different, okay? But it's a mythology that celebrates violence and individualism as a way. to remake the world, okay? It's a way of strength, individualism, violence. So why is that the case? And it's about culture, cultural values. So as I discussed in this class, cultural values are the most persistent part of who you are.

Why? Because it's part of your subconscious, okay? There's a conscious view, and there's a subconscious. And ultimately, you are your subconscious. And subconscious is composed of your cultural values. This is the essence of who you are. So even though the Puerto Indo-Europeans, they were going into different environments,

and they were assimilate themselves into different environments, and they look physically different. Culturally, subconsciously, they shared a similar value system. And this value system will then go on to inform the way they perceive the world, their worldview. And this worldview will then benefit itself, through mythology which will eventually become literature okay okay okay does that make

sense so they might have changed clothes they might have changed the hair color but their soul was still proto-Indo-European okay and the same is also true for language and that's why and that's why so many words repeat themselves in different languages okay does that make sense okay great Great. Any more questions? Okay, all right, okay, great. So next class, we will go back to Europe. We will do the Crusades, which will then take us to the Renaissance and the Reformation and the Southern Revolution, okay?