Predictive History - The Story of "Civilization", "Secret History", "Game Theory" and more - Game Theory #14: The Law of Proximity

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

Game Theory #14: The Law of Proximity ...

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Last night there was a major escalation in this war. So the Israelis have bombed the Iranian oil fields. And in response, the Iranians now are attacking the energy infrastructure of the GCC. So let's have a look at what this attack looks like. This is Qatar. Okay, so Qatar provides 20% of the world's LNG. And this is a major escalation. And again, as I pointed out last class, the entire strategy of Iran is to destroy the global economy.
Starting point is 00:01:05 Okay, and this is how it would do so. It also attacked Tel Aviv in response for the assassination of their de facto leader Ali Lerjani. Okay? So this is what the attack looks like. As you can see from this picture, this is a cluster warhead and it is impossible for air defense to stop this. So Tel Aviv is getting pummeled. We don't have footage because it's being censored right now. And you would think that this release would want this war to end as soon as possible because Talaiv's
Starting point is 00:01:48 and other cities are getting destroyed in this war. And again, there's really no way for the Israelis to defend themselves against Iranian ballistic missiles. But unfortunately, there are many Israelis who are very happy about all this destruction. And so this is one of the more influential rabbis in Jerusalem. He's talking in Hebrew, what he's saying is that this war of destruction will bring about the return of the... Sorry, not the return, the coming of the Messiah.
Starting point is 00:02:37 And it will happen on Thursday, which is today. Okay? So they are not at all saddened by what is happening. In fact, they are quite animated. They're very excited about what's happening. what's happening. So again, you cannot look at this war from a geopolitical lens. You have to look at it from an eschatological perspective.
Starting point is 00:03:01 So let us look at where we are in the war so far. And as you can see, it is a regional war and both sides are seeking maximumist objectives. And what this means is the United States and Israel wants to destroy Israel, especially its capacity to be a nation state. And so right now, the Americans in Israeli are attacking their leadership, decapitating their leadership, as well as targeting their economy. Later on, as this world progresses and escalates, they will start to target civilian critical infrastructure, including water. Okay? And it's already happening. They also want to have a divided rule strategy where they want to provide
Starting point is 00:03:51 evoke ethnic conflict in Iran and divide Iran up into ethnic enclaves and this is what we call Balkanization. The Iranians, on the other hand, want to destroy the entire global economy. You do that by attacking the energy infrastructure of the GCC because, again, the entire basis of the global economy is cheap energy. So as this world progresses, you will notice certain things. So eventually the Americans will have no choice but to launch a ground invasion. And one possible attack vector is here, which is Kark Island.
Starting point is 00:04:37 This is where Iran stores about 9% of its oil for export. And so the idea is that if you take Kark Island, you will destroy the Iranian economy, and thus its capacity to sustain this war. The problem of Clark Island is that it's easy to take, but it's hard to defend because of the coastline, right? In which case, you have to also take the coastline. But then you deal with the Zagos Mountains, and so you have to expand outwards. Okay, so this is what we call mission creep, where you cannot justify the war. So what you do is you put in some soldiers, and then the mission creep becomes just a justification.
Starting point is 00:05:20 for the war. Okay, so that's one thing to spot as you read the news. Carg Island will be a flashpoint. Another flashpoint will be Saudi Arabia because right now the Iranians are attacking Saudi Arabia. Now, what Saudi Arabia can do is declare war on Iran and this is important because Saudi Arabia has a mutual defense pact with Pakistan so that if any are attacked, the other is obligated
Starting point is 00:05:48 to come to each other's defense. This is important because, as you can see, Pakistan opens up the Eastern Front. So it's possible the Americans can attack from the East. The other thing that's important is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And it is possible nuclear weapons are used. I, again, I strongly believe tactical nuclear weapons will not be used, okay? But once Pakistan is in the war, nuclear warheads are now at play.
Starting point is 00:06:22 Another thing to watch is how this war expands elsewhere. Because when the time is appropriate, what will happen is that the Iranians will activate their proxies, the Houthis, and they will close off another critical choke point. Okay, so now what's going to happen is that there be two critical maritime choke points that are closed off thus isolating the GCC and thus cutting off the world's access to cheap energy. And when they do that, we're going to expect global retaliation and other forces to come in to secure cheap energy. Okay, it is possible the South Koreans and the Japanese are forced into this war because they're so dependent on GCC energy. All right.
Starting point is 00:07:15 All right. So these are things that we will look for in next few weeks. Something else that is creating attention online is people are speculating that Benjamin Nanyahu is dead. And the reason why is that he's not been seen in a public setting for many days. There have been cabinet meetings and Nanyahu is that he has not been seen in a public setting for many days. There have been cabinet meetings and Naniyahu usually cheers them and he's not there. The other thing is that there are fake AI videos of him giving speeches and it's pretty blatant.
Starting point is 00:07:55 These are fake. So people are speculating that he is dead and they're trying to cover it up. This is a picture of him visiting a cafe in Jerusalem to prove he's not dead. The problem is that this cafe is in a man. and it will take him about like 50 minutes to drive there so why does he go there why doesn't he just have a cabinet meeting or get on the phone with Donald Trump to prove he's still alive all right so but I personally don't believe he is dead he could be hiding somewhere or he could be injured what we do know is that
Starting point is 00:08:33 the Iranians are killing a lot of senior Israeli officials including the head of Mossad the spy agency and not Yahoo's residence was also targeted in Tel Aviv. So that's a really interesting question. How are the Iranians able to target so many of the top leadership of the Israelis? But not only that, but this is Ali Larajani, and he is the de facto head of the Iran war effort. And he was assassinated yesterday or two days ago, and the Iranians have confirmed this, okay? So he is confirmed to be dead.
Starting point is 00:09:13 And people, analysts are extremely worried about this because he is a very traumatic person. And so you can negotiate with him, right? So once this war reaches a certain point where both sides are exhausted, then it is possible to approach him and say, you know what, let's just negotiate a ceasefire. And he'd be willing to be because he's very experienced. also very influential so he's able to bring together the different factions of the Iranian government and negotiate a ceasefire with him dead it is now almost impossible to foresee a ceasefire okay so let's discuss why you really don't want to do this sort of
Starting point is 00:10:03 stuff you don't really want to kill other nations leaders okay and so you let's just use Here's an analogy. Let's imagine in the streets there are two gangs at war with each other, okay? Gang A and gang B. Gang A gang B. And if you look at gangs, they are structured as hierarchies, okay? But there's a lot of autonomy among the different sections, okay? And what holds the gangs together, of course, is the leader.
Starting point is 00:10:38 When these two ganges into the war, what they try to avoid is killing each other's leader. Why? Because a war is often used to achieve certain political objectives. Right. And so the point isn't to kill everyone. The point is to negotiate a treaty that is most beneficial to you. And you do that by negotiating with each other's leaders, okay? because they have the authority to implement the treaty. That's the first reason. The second reason is if you kill the leader, then more people, there'll be a competition to replace the leader, right?
Starting point is 00:11:22 And during a gang war, the person who is most violent, the most extreme, will often become the new leader. So by killing this leader, not only do you cause conflict, among the gang, but you also cause a massive escalation and a conflict between these two gangs, and there's really no way out. That is why historically you do not target other nations' leaders, because then there's no off-ramp. So by targeting Lerajani, this release and Americans have ensured that there will be no off-ramp now. This war, we fought to the bitter end.
Starting point is 00:12:07 And unfortunately, as we discussed previously, that is the objective here. The Israelis and Americans are interested in maximumist aims. They destroy Iranians. And the Iranians are also maximalist in that they want to destroy the global economy permanently in order to restructure reality itself. All right. Okay. So this leaves us with three major questions that I want to look at today.
Starting point is 00:12:34 Okay? The first big question is, how are these leaders dying? It's not that easy to kill a leader, right? Because he's protected by security. And usually we, there are two ways to figure out where the leader is. Okay, there's human intelligence called humid, and there's signal intelligence called signet. Okay? Human intelligence, signal intelligence. Signal intelligence just means, let's try to eavesdropping where I listen in on your telephone calls where I track your IP address. Okay? And the Israelis and Americans are obviously they're sufficient in that. And the Americans in this religion are saying that we are using electronic surveillance in order to track these people down. I don't think that's convincing. I think the most important source, the most reliable source of information is human
Starting point is 00:13:34 intelligence, having spies, embedded in local networks to spot for you where they are. That's the most, that's the best way to figure out where they are. So then this raises the question, how are these Israelis and Americans getting this human intelligence? Okay. All right, that's the first question we want to look at. How are these leaders dying?
Starting point is 00:13:58 Second question is like, why are they dying? Like, what's the point of killing them? because once they die they can just be replaced and they're often replaced by a more extreme individual okay so that's the second question we want to look at and the third question we want to look at is what does this mean for the war and the world okay What do these decapitation strikes ultimately mean for how this world will progress and how this will affect the world the world in general? Okay? All right, so those are the three big questions I want to look at.
Starting point is 00:14:48 So to answer these three questions, I want to introduce a new idea to you. Okay? It's called a law of proximity. A law of proximity, the idea is this. Whenever you play a game, you're not just playing one game. We're playing many, many different games. The game that you choose to play is the one that is most proximate to you, the one that is close, most close to you.
Starting point is 00:15:16 And that impacts your decision making the most. So that's a lot of proximity. So let me explain to you what this means using an analogy, okay? Let's just use your life. You are playing actually multiple games every single day, all right? So let's examine this. The first game you play, of course, is the family game, right? So you might have parents and you have siblings, okay?
Starting point is 00:15:45 And the game you're playing, of course, is to win attention from your parents. And to do so, depending on who your siblings are, you might use different strategies, including doing well in school or being a pain in the ass. Unfortunately, my kids choose to be a pain in the ass, okay? Yes. another game which is social prestige right so they're competing against other parents to have the best family possible all right so and then not only do play a game at home but you also play games at school right right so when you go
Starting point is 00:16:30 to school you're competing at your classmates for attention and popularity but you're also playing a game in the school to get the best grades so that you can get into a good college, right? Then you go to work where you're competing in order to win the favor of your boss and to be popular among your colleagues. Then you play a city game where you live in Beijing and you want Beijing to be better than maybe Shanghai or Xinjiang. and then you play a game of maybe a nation where you want China be stronger than Japan okay so as you can see every single day you're playing multiple games even though even though you may not recognize it and again what's important is the game that is most important to you is a game which you are most close to right the one that you can see in front of you okay does that make sense okay but this is also true for nations as well
Starting point is 00:17:33 where we think that the game is between nations but really the game is within nations and the conflict within nations is the one conflict that determines how nations behave against each other all right so we so today what we will do is we will look at three examples of of this okay We will look at the civil conflicts in America, in Israel, in Iran, to figure out why they behave the way they do, and then figure out how this war will progress. So clearly, there is a civil conflict right now in America. Okay, you have the Democrats, and you have Republicans.
Starting point is 00:18:27 Now what's odd is that even though these two different political parties are at war with each other, they both support the war because their calculus is different. So why do the Democrats support this war? Well, it's because they believe that this war will be extremely unpopular in America, which will allow the Democrats to dominate in the midterms in November
Starting point is 00:18:54 and then win the presidential election in 28. And they believe that this will be so It would destroy Donald Trump and allowed Democrats to rule forever. It will basically destroy the Republican Party. All right? And so that is your strategy. And if you think about it, it actually makes a lot of sense. The Republicans have a different strategy, which is this war may be unpopular and this war may
Starting point is 00:19:26 make America lose, but it's okay. Why? Because in a time of war, the president has something called the Emergency Powers Act. Okay? Emergency Powers. Emerging powers allows the president to essentially suspend the Constitution and to suspend or delay elections. Also, the Republicans want to pass something called Safe America Act. Okay? The Safe America Act. which means that if you are a voter, you must present ID in order to vote. And you think that this is, well, reasonable.
Starting point is 00:20:23 But historically, the idea of checking ID is a way to discriminate against minorities, right? To have police officers there to scare minorities. And that's traditionally how racism was in the way to be. enforced in America. So in other words, the Republicans have many different strategies of either cheating or manipulating the elections. They could also, I'd just say this, but if the war is going really badly, what they will do is called by national draft and cancel the elections, okay?
Starting point is 00:21:01 So these are two different strategies going on. But as you can see, this is not really about America defeating Iran. This is really about the Democrats or Republicans trying to obtain power and keep it. Okay? All right. But what's important for us to understand is that it's not just about the Democrats and Republicans at war with each other. There's actually a much deeper divide in America, okay?
Starting point is 00:21:29 And this divide is a conflict between the elite and the counter-elite. Remember how we introduced the idea of elite overproduction, right? This is a Peter Turchin idea. And he argues that what leads to civil war is that you have too many elite who want to be the ones in power. Power is a zero-sum game, and therefore when you have elite overproduction, they have to go to war against each other in order to have the power. And so what's going on?
Starting point is 00:22:12 Who are the elite and who is the counter elite? Well, I mean, to put it very simply, the Democrats represent the elite and the Republicans represent the counter elite, okay? So basically the elite is the empire, and counter elite is MAGA, which is America first. And so they have two different ideals for America. The empire is to maintain a current global order, right? And MAGA is to retreat back into Western Hemisphere and focus on Americans' core national interests. They're also divided into finance and AI.
Starting point is 00:23:00 So in other words, Wall Street are the main backers of the current elite, and then Silicon Valley are the main backers of the counter. elite okay so this these people are interested in maintaining the status quo they are interested in a revolution right and so this is the main divide in America that will eventually lead to a civil war like like an actual civil war okay but right now they're fighting over foreign policy so I would discuss this more in the future okay but I present to you now.
Starting point is 00:23:44 So let me give you a concrete example of why they're fighting. Why are people in finance fighting with people in AI? And there's a very good reason. Because if you're able to control Washington, D.C., if you're able to control the levers of government, you're able to make a lot of money for yourself, okay? So let's look at this concretely. What people don't really understand is that both finance and AI are bubbles that will burst.
Starting point is 00:24:18 They're parasites, okay? So finance is a parasite because there's something called a private credit bubble. Private credit bubble, I mean, the idea of private credit is very simple. Rather than banks issuing loans to companies, companies privately issue loans to other companies. And you would think that these companies would be very careful with who they lend to and how much they lend to, right? That's not true, though. Why? Because in 2008, these banks destroyed the global economy, and the American government bailed them out.
Starting point is 00:25:04 right they suffer no consequences this this idea of moral hazard if you do not suffer consequences for your stupidity well you're just going to be more stupid in the future okay so these companies believe that we control Washington DC therefore we can be as risky and stupid as we want so they're giving out lots and lots of silly loans to companies because they collect a fee for these loans right And then when these loans don't actually work out, meaning the companies go bankrupt, what they do is they say, oh, we'll lend you some more money to keep afloat, okay? So now this problem has reached about $2,000. And so they think that, okay, well, worst case scenario, the government will bail us out
Starting point is 00:25:51 if we all go bankrupt because we're too big to fail. And all our friends are in government. Okay, that's the mentality. And in 2008, that worked. but there's a problem today which is there's also another group that's doing the same crap okay and it's called the AI bubble
Starting point is 00:26:09 all right so if you look at AI bubble you've got companies like Microsoft OpenAI Oracle Nvidia okay lots and lots of different companies and the way they operate is
Starting point is 00:26:24 they just lend money to each other okay it's like I give you a billion dollars then you give me a billion dollars and now we have $2 billion. It's a circle jerk. And it's getting a lot of money from the GCC and other investors. The problem, of course, is what's happening in the war, right?
Starting point is 00:26:43 So if the GCC can no longer put more money into this bubble, then eventually this bubble will have to burst. But they're like, that's okay. Why? Because we control Trump. We control the White House. We are the start market. Therefore, Washington, D.C. will bail us out.
Starting point is 00:27:02 Okay? So that's the war going on, where you have two parasitic forces, the finance sector and the tech sector, and they are all looking for going to bailouts when their bubble burst. But the government doesn't have infinite money. It can only build one side, right? So they're going to fight over the government. They're going to fight over who bails who out, okay? If the Democrats can win the House and the presidency in 20208, then the private credit people
Starting point is 00:27:34 will get bailed out. But if Trump and his people stand in power in 2028, then the AI people will get bailed out, okay? So that's the civil war going on in America right now. We'll discuss this more later in the future, but I just present to you right now, okay? And then of course you have the Israelis, Israel. don't really appreciate how divided Israel is. This is about 2020, when you have a million people in Tel Aviv calling for the resignation, the impeachment, the jailing of Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Starting point is 00:28:14 Because Nanyahu, like most Israeli politicians, is very corrupt. And to avoid going to jail, Nanyahu proposed changing the judiciary, changing the changing the laws. And so there's these massive protests against Nanyahu. And at this point in Israel, it seemed as though Nadiahou was going to fall from power and go to jail for the rest of his life. But then, of course, October 7th happened.
Starting point is 00:28:41 Okay? October 7 happened. And then Israel is now in permanent war that gives him emergency powers. Okay? All right. To give you a sense of how divided Israel is, let's look at the Kinesseid,
Starting point is 00:28:55 which is our parliament. Guys, this is a lot of political parties. As you can see, none of them are dominant. The biggest, Lakud, which is Nanyahu party, it has about 30 members. But it cannot rule by itself, therefore it has to join with other political parties. It has to be a coalition. But you look at its enemies.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Well, its enemies also have a lot. So it seems as though Israel is an extremely divided society, and it is. People don't really appreciate this. a lot of people talk about a Jewish global conspiracy. What people don't really understand is that Jewish people have never, ever gotten along. So you go back to the time of Jesus, and there were three major factions in Jerusalem. They were the seducese, there were the Pharisees, and the Aesans. They all hated each other.
Starting point is 00:29:48 In the year 70, the Romans had a huge army to destroy Jerusalem. And you would think at this time, the people in Jerusalem were just going to be in Jerusalem, The people in Jerusalem would get together and unite and defend Jerusalem because otherwise they all be killed. Well, they didn't get together, okay? And the Romans destroyed Jerusalem and burned down their second temple and massacred a lot of Jews. So the Jews have always had this problem where they're extremely creative
Starting point is 00:30:16 and intellectual, but that just leads to massive infighting. Okay? All right. So these are the leaders of the different political parties of Israel. And again, I hate to say this, but like they really hate each other. It's not, you know, like a show. They generally hate each other. And that's why Israel has been politically been so dysfunctional these past few decades.
Starting point is 00:30:46 Okay? All right. So now I want to discuss where the major conflict in, Israel is. Okay, so I would say there's like the two major conflict is represented by Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. These are two cities in Israel and they are the two major cities of Israel and they represent two different centers of gravity two different visions for Israel. Tel Aviv is democratic Jerusalem is a theocracy meaning it's religious, okay? Tel Aviv is a open meaning it actually has a lot of homosexuals right and you can imagine people in
Starting point is 00:31:34 Jerusalem aren't happy about this so they're very conservative okay okay cosmopolitan tradition all right so these are two vastly different visions all for Israel where Tel Aviv is this open democratic modern progress Progressive city, lots of homosexuals, lots of open ideas, very secular, very outward-looking, very western. Jerusalem is a complete opposite, okay? Very religious, very conservative. And they, again, they hate each other. And the fact that Tel Aviv is getting destroyed right now in this war, people in Jerusalem are actually okay with this, okay?
Starting point is 00:32:19 They're not like, oh my God, they're killing issues. No, no, no, no. Tel Aviv is the great Satan. Let's just destroy it so that we can build a theocracy. Okay. So let's look closely at where they disagree. So Israel is the kingdom of David. But Tel Aviv and Jerusalem perceived David differently.
Starting point is 00:32:51 So for people in Tel Aviv, David was the king when Israel was at the height of its glory, when it was an open, customer of Popolitan, creative, innovative, empire and that's what they want issue to be the people in jerusalem see this see david as a different person they see david as permanently a um uh poet prophet and they see david as the exemplar as the favor of god because he redeemed himself and repented himself in the eyes of god okay So redemption and repentance. And what they focus on is a story of David, where David is king, and one day he wakes up and finds he's in love with Boshiba.
Starting point is 00:33:50 And so he basically has sex with Bishiba. Bersheba gets pregnant, and that's a problem because Bersheba is married to someone else, Urea the Hightight. So what does David do? David has him killed, okay? And they can do this because he's king. But God finds out and sends the prophet Nathan to tell David you've sin. And at first David refuses to admit that he's in the wrong.
Starting point is 00:34:17 But then his child with Boshiba dies. And David falls into tremendous grief. And every day he's praying to God for forgiveness. He's asking for redemption. He is repenting and God forgives him. And in this process, not only does David become a better person, but he becomes united with God. Because now they're best friends.
Starting point is 00:34:43 Now they talk every day. And that's what the vision that people in Jerusalem have for Israel, a nation that engages in redemption and repentance. They don't care about this war. Don't care about Iran. They don't care about the United States. don't care about the great issue of project. They care about the Jews finding God again
Starting point is 00:35:04 and being loyal to God. And that is what will bring peace to the world. That is how they see the world. This is how they perceive things. They believe that in every person, there's a divine soul, okay, that comes from God. But it is trapped in the animal soul. Okay?
Starting point is 00:35:27 So Tel Aviv is the animal soul? and this is divine soul. So what the animal's soul is, you seek material comfort. You want to have sex. You want to get drunk. You want to party. You want to drive a Ferrari. This is all animal.
Starting point is 00:35:52 But inside of you, it's divine soul that only seeks to be with God. And so we are constantly in a struggle between the animal soul. and the divine soul. And so from their perspective, Tel Aviv represents the animal soul of Israel. Jerusalem represents the divine soul of Israel. So it's okay if they're reading this story, Tel Avivis. Good. Also, they recognize that war is good
Starting point is 00:36:17 because if people really want to find God again, they need to suffer. They need to lose everything before they recognize the glory of God. Okay? So think of the book of Job. When Job was, Job is a character in the Bible who is very wealthy. And so God decides, you know what, maybe he's only faithful to me because he's very wealthy. So Job loses everything and this heightens his faith in God.
Starting point is 00:36:51 Okay? So that's the vision that these crazy religious zealots have in Jerusalem, which is like, let's destroy Israel so that we can refine, rediscover. are love for God, okay? The destruction of Israel will lead to the redemption and repotence of the Israeli people and therefore peace in this world. The Messiah will finally come. That's why the rabbi was constantly talking about
Starting point is 00:37:23 on Thursday the Messiah will come because he feels it so close. There's so much destruction, there's so much war, so the Messiah must come. Because now the Jews recognize that only the Jews, that only God can save them. Therefore, when you will it, when you pray for the Messiah, when you really want in your heart, that's when the Messiah will come.
Starting point is 00:37:44 But you need to create the conditions when people really want the Messiah. So that's a civil conflict going on in Israel. And again, these people in Jerusalem, these fanatics, they don't really care if the world is destroyed because this world is fake anyway. What matters is the divine soul. Okay?
Starting point is 00:38:07 All right. Yeah. You have a question? Mitzin. You said that Mawai is coming today, which is Thursday and like... No, I didn't say that. I didn't say that.
Starting point is 00:38:25 The rabbi said that. Oh, the rabbi said that. The rabbi said that, like, the Messiah is coming today. But like, well, the coming of Messiah really affect China and those countries, or is all their personal. all their personal beliefs. Okay, listen, I know this is hard if you guys understand,
Starting point is 00:38:43 but China doesn't matter, okay? Only Israel matters. The United States, China, Russia, does not matter. The other thing that matters is Israel. Okay? Only matters is the people in Israel, the Jews. Their spiritual state will determine the fate of the world. Once the Jews unified with God,
Starting point is 00:39:03 then peace and prosperity will come for the rest of the world. Okay, all right. Okay, so now I want to talk about Iran, okay? This is the political government structure of Iran. Now, one thing to notice is that it's very complicated, okay? It's divided into the religious aspects, okay, assembly experts, and the secular aspect, which is the, um, the, um,
Starting point is 00:39:39 government, okay? So it's a government, but the Islamic clerics are at the very top. And this is the dual identity of Iran. And this is their last presidential election. And as you can see, it's a pretty divided country, where people in the middle voted for Jalalid, but people in the outskirts voted for Pajasat Kand,
Starting point is 00:40:09 Okay? So there's a lot of conflict in Iran, not just political, religious, but also ethnic as well. All right, so let me explain very quickly what I see is a major divide in Iran, okay? So of course you have the Islamic Theocracy and there are conflict with secular nationalists. Now, of course, there are these ethnic groups as well. I don't really think the ethnic groups matter that much, okay? What really matters is a conflict between the secular nationalist and the Islamic bureaucracy.
Starting point is 00:40:59 So basically, the rural urban divide. People who are well-educated and want to see Iran as a secular state that promotes democracy and progress and science versus these religious individuals, okay? Now, what happens is that in a war, you become more extreme. So what happened is that this other theology will transition into Shia eschatology or martyrdom, where they think that this war is about having that 12th imam, Mahdi, who is their basis of the Messiah, we turn to lead them to war against the great Satan, which is Israel in the United States. So over time, the Islamists will become much more radical.
Starting point is 00:41:58 This will force the secular nationalist to also become much more radical as well. So they will become Persian exceptionalist. What this means is that Persian exceptionalism, which just means that Persia is the greatest civilization in human history. and therefore it is worth dying for, it is worth fighting for. The survival of the Persian civilization is much more important than the survival of the Iranian state. Okay? So the great question for the Iranians is,
Starting point is 00:42:38 are they able to reconcile the differences between these two strands of the culture? Or will this lead to civil war in Iran? We are seeing civil war in Israel, we're seeing civil war in America. Iran cannot afford to fight a civil war at this time because they're being bombarded by two very popular nations, the Israel and America, okay? But unfortunately, the law of proximity teaches us that people are much more interested in their own internal conflict than
Starting point is 00:43:20 the outside global conflict, okay? And so this understanding now gives us, helps us answer the three big questions of today, right? How are these leaders getting killed? Why are they being killed? And what will this mean for the rest of the world, okay? And so the first two questions, how are they getting killed, they're getting killed because of these civil conflicts
Starting point is 00:43:48 conflicts within these nations, okay? These different factors are providing intelligence to their enemies in order to limit their internal enemies. Right? That's, again, I don't have evidence, but I think, according to game theory, that's the best explanation for how these leaders are getting killed. Because again, it's not that easy as a foreign nation to identify the location precisely all that leader, okay?
Starting point is 00:44:16 And what we're seeing in this war is both the Iranians and Israelis are doing a very excellent job of killing each other's leaders. And that's not actually common. So I think this civil conflict within these nations offers the best guide, the best understanding of why this happened. Okay. Now, the third question is, where's the world going? As you can see from these conflicts, it seems as though the world can only become. much more theocratic in the end. So what's happening is, at the end of the end,
Starting point is 00:44:53 this war in Iran, in the Middle East, it's really a war between two different competing visions of the world. You have the global, secular, financial order. And this is the world that we live in today. And they're funding against a nationalist theocracy, theocratic. So this is what we can expect for the next five to ten years,
Starting point is 00:45:33 where Iran becomes much more theocratic and extreme and nationalistic. Israel aband democracy and embraces theocracy. America will also abandon democracy and embrace theocracy, because that is a general trend of the world. world. Okay? All right. Okay. So what I want to do next class is discuss how the world will change next five to ten years. All right. Okay. Any questions? Okay. I mentioned that Israel have two divided parts and one represents the animal soul and the other represents the divine soul. Like I can substitute this logic to a single person like people are always struggled with like
Starting point is 00:46:29 identify or not identify like separating the divine soul and pursue the divine soul but they cannot get rid of the animal so is there a way where we can only struggle at us in our lives okay so first of all it's important to understand that this is how when there's just people in Israel frame the conflict in issue okay a conflict between the animal soul and divine soul. The people in Tel Aviv would frame the debate as one between progress and tradition, going forward or staying backward.
Starting point is 00:47:07 So that is, so people in Tel Aviv and Judaism would see this in a different way. But as you point out, there's some validity to this idea that we're all struggle between animal soul and the divine soul and I would say that for the past 20 years we only have been indulging in an animal soul okay we've abandoned the divine soul and that's why I think people are so desperate for change and this is what's leading to so much conflict around the world where the human soul is not off-balanced okay where we are too materialistic and not spiritual enough
Starting point is 00:47:53 And what we know from history is that if a society goes too far in one extreme, they swing back to the extreme. Okay, and that's what we're seeing where one good outcome, I think, of all this conflict around the world is people start to recognize limitations of money, of materialism, of individualism. And they start to embrace more spirituality, community, family. Because quite honestly you don't have a choice in the matter, okay? If you're like, you know, I want to buy myself a Gulfstream jet and I want to have like, you know, a huge company, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're going to be disappointed, okay? As I will show you next class, the world is heading towards that economic depression, okay, basically a splintry, a rupture in the world. and so you're not able to afford to fly to Maldives for vacation. There will be avocados in the supermarket.
Starting point is 00:48:56 Okay, but what all this means is now you're a chance to focus more on introspection, on reflection, on family, on asking yourself, what makes me happy, what gives me meaning and purpose in life? And the answer, of course, is each other. And maybe this is a good thing. Maybe this is the intention of the universe. Maybe as the people in Jerusalem would say, this is really the plan of God. Okay? And it's unfortunate that all this war and suffering is happening. But again, what a lot of people who are religious will tell you is we can only find redemption through suffering and through pain and through tragedy.
Starting point is 00:49:40 All right. Okay. Any more questions, guys? Okay. All right. I'll see you next class.

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