Predictive History - The Story of "Civilization", "Secret History", "Game Theory" and more - Game Theory #21 - World War Trump

Episode Date: April 22, 2026

Game Theory #21 - World War Trump

There has been so far a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The ceasefire is supposed to end tomorrow. And right now the Americans have gone to Islamabad to negotiate a possible peace treaty. The Iranians may go, they may not go, we don't know yet. It is entirely possible that the Iranians will go to Somabad. God or something bad, and it's entirely possible that they will negotiate a ceasefire, a peace treaty that ends the war. But unfortunately, this war will not end.

So a lot of people believe that this war, it is just because Donald Trump has decided to go to war with Iran for whatever reason. But that's not true. This war in Iran is actually part of a larger strategic vision. that the United States has to maintain its empire. And today I want to explain why that is the case and how this war will progress. But first, I want to look at some recent events

from these past two weeks. One of the big news these past two weeks is that there are a lot of oil refineries that are a fire. They've been alight. So even as the world has been cut off from 20% of anything, from the Middle East, there are lots of oil refineries that are being destroyed.

Okay, so this is from Russia and this is actually Russia's largest oil refinery. As you can see, it is pretty extensive, okay? But this is not Russia, it is actually a lot of places. So this is Myanmar, and these are 10 There are a lot of oil funeraries that have, that are being destroyed right now. We don't know why this is happening, but there's a lot. There's all been, like, there's already been over 50 oil fineries that have been on fire these past 45 days. Another thing that's been happening is that even though there's a ceasefire in effect, the Americans have imposed a blockade on Iran.

And the Americans have escalated the situation by boarding and basically taking over an Iranian ship returning from China. Okay? So let's just look at some of the footage. So what happened was that the Iranian ship was returning from China, and the Americans suspected that the ship had important fuel and components for ballistic missiles. The Americans tried to board the ship. The ship would not stop. The American was fired at the engine, and then they boarded the ship with special forces. Okay?

And this would be considered an act of piracy. And before the Secretary of War, Peter Hex-F, he before complained that you have to let ships freely navigate in the seas. But he's also said that it's probably okay. for the Americans to steal ships. To be clear, threatening to shoot missiles and drones at ships, commercial ships that are lawfully transiting international waters, that is not control.

That's piracy. That's terrorism. Certainly in Venice. Okay, so you understand. So the fact that Iran has closed off the Sherman has thrown to attack ships with drones and ballistic missiles, that is wrong. That is piracy.

unless the Americans do this, okay? Unless the Americans do this. Well, is taking notice of that, and it continues because two oil tankers, two overnight were seized by the United States of America, stateless or sanctioned, because the oil blockade, the quarantine of oil out of unsanctioned or stateless, sanctioned or stateless vessels continues. That leverage will continue as Secretary Rubio outlined. So as you've seen today. Okay, so does that make sense? It is wrong for the war. world to be pirates and to seize ships, but it's okay for the United States to do this,

because the United States is the one that sets the rules for the world. Duh. Okay. So this war is not going well for the United States. This is Rick Scott and he's a senator from Florida. He explains that it doesn't really matter if the war is not going well for the United States, because what's happening is that we're hurting China, and that's what's important. How do you feel like the war in Iran, which is sort of in a ceasefire right now? How do you feel like this is going?

Should the U.S. wrap this up, get out of there now, or do you think there's more to do there? I think I appreciate that Trump's trying to get rid of nuclear weapons. I don't want to die by a nuclear weapon from Iran. They wanted to kill us. I mean, this appeasement of bullies, I don't know if in your life, if that's worked for you guys, it's never worked for me.

and so they wanted to kill us. So they're getting close to be in a position to kill us. And they basically had been killing Americans. So I think what Trump did is the right thing. Now, I think he has to get them in a position that they don't have the ability to do nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles.

I think that's where we have to go. I don't know what the right approach is going to be. I think blocking the Strait Haramu's is fine from my standpoint. If no oil ever goes to China again and their economy is destroyed, that would be a really wonderful day for me. Okay, do you guys understand? The Americans may lose this war, but if the end result is that China no longer gets any oil from Middle East

and their economy is destroyed, it's worth it. All right. Okay. even now, even at this late stage, we're about 50 days into this war, the Americans have yet to explain why this war started in the first place. So this is Karen Livett, and she was asked by a reporter again why this war started. And this is her response. And said yesterday for the first time that he had to strike Iran because he believes that Iran was going to strike U.S. targets within seven days. and then he then bumped that down later to three days.

Where is he getting that? Well, that's not the first time the president has said that he chose to launch Operation Epic Fury because he felt as though Iran was going to strike the United States and our assets in the region first. Again, I addressed this in the last briefing. This was a feeling the president had based on facts. Facts provided to him.

So it was a feeling based on facts. That's why Trump started this war. Trump himself has, given conflicting signals. He said that this war is going to end soon. He's also said that this war is going to continue. All right. So he changed every day. News 20 minutes ago, but it seems to be going very well in the Middle East with the rent. We'll know over a little bit of time we're negotiating over the weekend. And as you know, we have the blockade. The blockade's been very successful and of equal success.

This has been the five weeks before the blockade, the combination. It's pretty lethal, I would say. So we're going to be knowing very shortly. So he's saying this war is going great. We should have a ceasefire soon. Okay? And then maybe an hour later he's like, oh, I think I need to drop bombs on Iran. So there's a lot of conflicting signals coming from Trump.

And what I want to show you today, what I want to argue, to you today is that you have to ignore these signals and focus on the larger American strategy in this war and once you once we understand the strategy then it's very easy for us to understand how this war will progress over the next few years okay because this war is not going to end soon it won't be a few months it'll probably be a few years and quite honestly it may take 10 or 20 years. Okay, so let's look over some more news. So as I mentioned previously, oil refineries are getting sabotage either by accident or purposefully. What this tells us is that in the past 45 days,

there have been at least 45 recorded incidents around the world of oil firenories being set on fire. So Iran was bombed by the Israelis and then the Israelis responded by attacking Qatar. Russia has been attacked by Ukraine and the big one is that in Australia in Jilon, one of the refineries was set on fire and they claim it was an accident. This is important because Australia is not at war. But Australia needs oil. So right now Australia is in a lot of trouble. Romania, Bucharest has been hit, India has been hit, Myanmar has been hit. So all around the world, there are these fires going on, destroying the world's oil supply. So why is this happening?

And who's doing this? We don't know. And quite honestly, we may never know. But to feel the answer, you always ask yourself, who benefits, right? And you always look at three things. means, motive, and opportunity. And so from this, you could figure out that the majority of these fires are being set, are being deliberately set in order to reduce the world's oil supply.

And the people who can do this, the people benefit from doing this, are the Russians or the Americans, okay? One of these two. It's probably both, but we don't know for sure yet. All right, this war, as we discussed previously, is already having a tremendous impact on the world's economy. So sulfur has risen in price by 57%. Sofer is important for the manufacture of both fertilizers as well as for microchips.

Okay? Jet fuel has gone by 52%. next time you're flying the United States, it's going to be a much more expensive ticket. Urea is important for fertilizer, diesel, gasoline, fertilizer. So basically, food and energy, their price have gone way up. Okay? Donald Trump makes a statement saying that the Iranian flag cargo ship, Tusca, has been boarded by the Americans.

Okay? And Donald Trump continues to threaten the Iranians and say that if you continue to close out the threat of Homoos, then we will negotiate with bombs, basically. All right? No more Mr. Nice Guy. And quite honestly, what he's also saying is,

we don't really care because we don't need that oil from the Middle East. Also, we can sell our oil to the world The United States loses nothing. In fact, many ships are headed right now to the US, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska, the low complement of the IRDC, we just want to be the tough guy. All right, so we're the ones benefiting from this war. So we have nothing to worry about.

All right, so another thing that I want you guys to pay attention to is how America is moving towards a war economy. All right, so the Pentagon has been in talks with journalists. in talks with General Motors and Ford to make munitions, drones, and military equipment. Right? So this is what this, this last happened in World War II when America moved to total war. There are factories that used to make cars were now making tanks. But knowing that, but Trump also announced something called the Defense Production Act as of today. What this does is it basically allows the government to subsidize private corporations. corporations in the manufacture of weapons.

Okay? So these companies, General Motors Ford, they can make a lot of money because of this war. That's something to keep in mind. Starting December, Americans who are age 18 to 626 will be automatically registered for the draft. So it's very likely that America will soon introduce the national draft and force young man

to go fight in the Middle East. Currently, the Pentagon budget is $1,000. Next year it'll be $1.5,000, increased by of 50%. Okay? And we can expect that thereafter, it might be $2,000. More veterans are now being asked to serve longer.

Okay? So what we're seeing is that the United States is moving towards a wartime economy. Okay, they're preparing for what we call total war when an economy moves towards the manufacturer of weapons and munitions. All right. Another thing that's been happening that you should pay attention to is the fact that there's very little opposition. In fact, there's no opposition to Donald Trump fighting this war in Iran. You would think that the Democrats, his opponents, would use this opportunity to promote anti-war messages or try to stop him from plunging America

into another forever war in the Middle East. Instead, the Democrats are doing as much as possible not to do anything. So recently in Congress, they had a vote as to whether or not to restrict Trump's ability to fight this war. And there were four Republicans who did not vote. And one Republican who voted, we should restrict Trump, okay?

And so this vote should have been 214 to 213 in favor of yes. We will restrict Trump's war powers. But then what happened was that one Democrat, just one Democrat, decides, I want to switch my vote to no. So now becomes 214 to 213. Okay, do you understand? Guys, this is all political theater. You understand?

It's all theater, meaning that it was already prearranged between the Republicans and Democrats that this resolution would fail. In other words, it may be two Republicans voted yes, then two Democrats would have voted no. If 10 Republicans voted yes,

then 10 Democrats would have voted no. You understand? The Democrats are not. not opposing this war, they're doing as much as possible to support this war. So the other question then is, why is this happening? Why is America moving towards a wartime economy? Why are the Democrats so supportive of this war? And the answer has to do with empire, okay?

So this is a thing called the National Defense Strategy that came out in January 2026. And this is the blueprint for how the Pentagon will fight wars with the next five to 10 years. This is a strategy behind the Iran war. All right? And so what we're going to do is we're going to reach certain parts together to analyze how the Americans will strategize about the world moving forward. Okay, so um, every could you help me read please? Thank you. For too long, the U.S. government neglected, even rejected, putting Americans

in their concrete interests first. Previous administration squandered our military advantages and the lives, goodwill, and resources for people in grandiose nation-building projects and self-congratulatory pledges to uphold Cloudcastle abstractions like the rule-based international order. These past leaders neglected and often actively undermined our warfighters' warriest, and our military's core, irreplaceable role, fighting, winning, and thereby deterring the wars that really matter to our people. Consequently, President Trump entered office with the nation on the precipice of disastrous wars for which we were unprepared. Okay, so certain things to keep in mind, okay?

Concrete interests first means that we have to think about resources. We have to think about concrete advantages to America. We can no longer think about ideals, okay? Second is the idea of rules-based in national order, or the globalist. Before America was fighting wars for their nations or for Europe or for Japan, we had to fight wars for America okay and the last thing is the idea of undermined our warriors ethos, okay, undermine our warrior ethos. What this means is that before America was founded by too many rules, okay, what they call, rules of engagement, okay?

or basically avoiding war crimes you were not allowed to kill civilians you needed permission from the United Nations to fight wars and what this is saying is like screw that okay screw rules of engagement

we should just fight wars to win wars that means we kill as many people as we need that means we do whatever is necessary in order to win wars okay so this is what the first part of I was saying here it's a new vision of American power Before it was about ideals, now it's about interest.

Before it was about globalism. Now it's about America first. Before it was about rules of engagement. Now it's about the war ethos, okay? Please continue reading, I agree. President Trump has decisively changed that, courageously putting Americans first to truly make America great once again. Under his leadership, the United States has the world's strongest, most lethal, and most capable military.

Indeed, the most powerful military that this world has ever seen. No longer will the department be distracted by interventionism, and those wars, regime changes, and nation building. Instead, we will put our people's practical concrete interests first. We will support a policy of actual peace through strength. We will be the sword and shield to deter war with the goal of peace, but ready to fight and win the nation's necessary wars if called upon. Okay, stop. Okay, right.

So the important sentence here is we will support a policy of actual peace through strength. What this means is that we will be so mighty, we would be so invincible, we'd be so fearless, that we will instill fear in others. They will be so afraid to fight us and therefore we have peace, okay? So it's the idea of hegemony. Peace through might, peace through power. We have to demonstrate, we are our power. demonstrate we are invincible. When people fear us, that's when people will obey us.

When people obey us, that's when we're peace, okay? This is not mean isolationism. To the contrary, it means a focus and genuinely strategic approach to the threats our nation faces and how to best manage them. This approach is based on a flexible, practical realism that looks at the world in clear-eyed way, which is essential for serving Americans' interests. As the national security strategy articulates, this is the common sense approach President Trump has advanced. Okay, all right. So this does not mean isolationism. It's about how to best manage them. So the idea here is that America before was engaging too many wars overseas. It was too spread out. America will now be focused on maintaining and protecting its core

strategic interests. That means divide and conquer, okay? Divide and conquer. Divide and conquer. Divide and I'll explain this as we go on. All right. So these are the four strategic interests of the United States, okay? Can you read, I agree? We will defend the homeland and ensure that our interests in the Western Hemisphere are protected. We will deter China in the Indo-Pacifics through strength, not confrontation. We will increase burden sharing with allies and partners around the world.

And we will rebuild the U.S. defense industrial base as part of the United States. part of the president's once in a century revival of American industry. So this is it, okay? This is the plan moving forward. And already we're seeing the Americans are doing this. All right. So we build the US defense industrial base. Okay, basically it means factories and resources, right?

Making sure that America becomes the arsenal of democracy. Its factories produce all the weapons America needs in order to protect its interests, as well as protect its allies. We will increase burden sharing with allies and partners around the world, okay? This basically means that from now on, we're not friends. From now on, we're the boss,

and you do what we tell you to do. Okay? From now on, we will order Japan, South Korea, Europe, NATO to do what they must in order to protect our power and they must follow us. Basically, create a system of vassalage. That's number two. Number three is we would deter China in the Indo-Pacific food strength, not confrontation.

We don't want to destroy China. We don't want to hurt China, but we need China to obey us. And the way to do that is by containing China, strangling China economically, and also promoting Japan, okay? So in the future, China and Japan will balance each other out. And that allows us to rule over them, right? In the future, we America will sell resources, weapons, and financing the both China and Japan as to compete against each other in East Asia.

That's how we will contain China. And then the idea of, we'll defend the homeland and ensure that our interests of the Western Hemisphere are protected, okay? So basically, this means that the Western Hemisphere belongs to America. We'll do whatever we want in the Western Hemisphere. If you want to come to Western Hemisphere, you need a permission.

If you, China or Russia, you want to come into the Western Hemisphere, you have to get our permission. You have to pay a tax to us. This is really important. Defend the Homeland. Defend the Homeland just basically means a police state. Before America was too free, and therefore, America was too weak. The example is the Vietnam War.

When the war was not lost in Vietnam, the war was lost at home. because you had too many people, too many young men protesting on the streets, too many rebels. If we want to win wars, if we want to project strength, if we want to create peace in the world, we need to make sure that a home front is secure. All right, and that needs making sure that Americans follow a law, do what they're told.

Okay, so I'll explain this more as we go along. All right, so now let's move on to China, okay? So can you read ivory? deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation. President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade, and respectable relations with China, and he has shown that he is willing to engage President Xi Jinping directly to achieve those goals. But President Trump has also shown how important it is to negotiate from a position of strength, and he has tasked DOW accordingly.

Consistent with the president's approach, DOW will therefore seek and open a wider range of military-to-military communications with the People's Liberation Army, with a focus on supporting strategic stability with Beijing as well as deconfliction and de-escalation, more generally. But we will also be clear-eyed and realistic about the speed, scale, and quality of China's historic military build-up. Our goal in doing so is not to dominate China, nor is it to strangle or humiliate them. Rather, our goal is simple. To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies, in essence, to set the military condition required to achieve the NSS goal of a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific

that allows all of us to enjoy a decent peace. To that end, as the NSS directs, we will erect a strong denial of defense along the first island chain. We will also urge and enable key regional allies and partners to do more for our collective defense. In doing so, we will reinforce deterrents by denial so that all nations recognize their interests are best served through peace and restraint.

Okay, so again, this is a very clear plan, okay? What this is saying is this. We're gonna negotiate with China, we're gonna be friends, we have to do so from a position of strength. And so what does that mean? First of it means that we will embargo China, okay? How can we embargo China? Through the first iron chain, right?

The first island chain is Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines. So if you embarkle China, it means China cannot access the state of Malacca, which provides China with 80% of its energy needs. Right? And so if you embargo China, China has no choice but to obey you, you're negotiating from position of strength. The other thing is that we're going to enable key regional allies.

And this, of course, would be Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, right? And this creates a shirt of Malacca. We will have these nations challenge Chinese supremacy in order to create balance, a power balance in East Asia. And once this power balance is created, they all depend on us, the United States. Because we have energy, we have food, we have weapons,

we have financing, okay? So again, if you, you just read this, it's very, very clear what the United States wants to do, and they're already doing it. All right, so this is a conclusion, okay? Aubrey, can you read, please? Taking our nation from the precipice of a world war just a year ago, President Trump is now leading our nation into a new golden age, one defined by putting Americans first in

the common sense, pragmatic and concrete way. No longer will we squander Americans' will, resources, and even lives and foolish and grandiose adventures aboard. abroad. But we will not retreat. Rather, we will unabashedly prioritize Americans' as concrete interest with an approach of flexible realism. We will restore the warrior ethos. We will refocus the American military on its core, irreplaceable goal of winning the nation's war decisively. In doing so, as President Trump has so memorably emphasized, our purpose will not be aggression or perpetual war. Rather, our goal is peace. Peace is the high

highest good, but not a peace that sacrifices our people's security, freedoms, and prosperity. Rather, a peace that Americans deserve, a noble and proud peace. Fortunately, this piece is compatible with the interests of our potential opponents, if they keep their demands reasonable and cabined. We do not demand their humiliation or submission. Rather, we demand only that they respect our reasonably conceived interests and those of our allies and partners who stand stoutly with us. If we all can acknowledge this, we can achieve a flexible and sustainable balance of power among us and peace.

But we at the Department of War will be ready if our gracious offer is burned. We know that wishing for a decent peace is not the same thing as springing it about. Thus, if our potential opponents are unwise enough to reject our peaceful overtures and choose conflict instead, America's armed force will stand ready to fight and win the nation's wars in ways that make sense for Americans. To ensure that this is the case, the strategy will ensure that we see things and the choices we need to make clearly. We will prioritize addressing the most consequential and grave threats to Americans' interests. We will revamp our network of allies and partners to meet the threats we face. And we will be ready, always carrying the sharpest and most formidable sword, but prepared to offer the all of the world.

So this is very clear. Okay. What he's saying is this. Obey us and there will be peace. Defy us and there will be war. Okay, the key idea is we will prioritize addressing the most consequential and great threats to Americans' interests. Okay, sorry, can you give back? Okay, so I want to show you what this means. Basically it means that from now on, America will adopt a new strategy, okay? All right. So, if this ceasefire does not work,

and war continues, then we're going to expect in round two, the fighting will get much worse. Okay, so the Americans will start to target civilian infrastructure, including bridges, universities, reservoirs, power plants, desalization plants. Basically, it will destroy Iran's capacity

to be a nation state. In response, the Iranians can destroy a lot more energy infrastructure, okay? So what it's done now, it's basically close off the Strait of Homoose, but it can also close off the Red Sea, okay? And they can also target pipelines of natural gas. Basically, it can take offline one-third of the world's energy supply, and this would, of course, cause an economic depression, okay? Unfortunately, the natural security system,

strategy of the United States doesn't really care. If you just read the National Security Strategy, they already have factored this in and they don't really care. So the idea is to prioritize strategic interests. And what this basically means is that America has the world's greatest navy, no one else comes close, and so all that they do is contain the world's choke points and the world must bend to the will of America. It doesn't make sense. If you're going to trade, then you must depend on American generosity. So already what's happening is that this area, it's being closed off. But America has made moves to close off other areas as well.

So America is exerting more control over the Panama Canal, okay? Basically the Western Hemisphere is a under something called the Donroll Doctrine. The Donald Doctrine basically states that American do whatever it wants in the Western Hemisphere. You want to come here and trade, you have to go through us. China depends on a lot of resources from the Western Hemisphere, especially from South America. Over here is something called the Lithium Triangle. This is Venezuela.

Brazil provides China with a lot of agricultural products, soil beans, basically. What Trump is saying is that, hey, in the future, you're going to trade over here, China, You have to go through us, okay? So basically embarking the Western Hemisphere from China. Over here is something called the Strait of Malacca. This is the most important choke point in the world, especially for East Asia, because as you can see, the Middle East, if it is to access South Korea, China, and Japan,

it has to go through the Strait of Malacca. But guess why, guys, everything goes through the Strait of Malacca. And this is important because the United States has signed a deal. with Indonesia. So what we can expect is that American in Indonesia, their militaries will start to cooperate more and more. This is move and that's and the reason why is America is moving towards creating the first island chain. Basically, um, militarizing the first island chain in order to deter China, to embargo China basically. What we're also seeing is that Japan

is now rapidly remilitarizing. They're signing more agreements with Australian other nations, okay? They're putting more weapons. This is all being encouraged by the United States as a deterrent to China. Again, this is really important. America does not want to destroy China. It does not want to humili China. It wants to control China.

Because the Chinese economy is still very strong and powerful. and America wants to make sure that the Chinese are buying more US dollars. Okay? So it is entirely possible what's going to happen is that the Chinese will have no choice but to buy from America, okay, especially energy. The entire Western Hemisphere belongs to America and you want to trade with the Western Hemisphere, then you need to sign a trade deal with America. Okay? What America is also doing that's really important is that it's planeting over Greenland.

But taking over Greenland, you're blocking access. China and Russia cannot access the Northwestern Hemisphere for the Arctic. You're also seizing control over the Arctic, okay? And there are lots of minerals and oil in the Arctic as well. Okay? The Strait of Gibraltar is also another strategic choke point. And America has a science and deal with Morocco to enhance more cooperation. Okay? So I can see what America is doing is when they mean strategic interest, prioritizing strategic interests, what they mean is exerting control over the world's choke points

so that they can control global trade. Okay? They're not going to control the entire ocean because it's much too big. but if they control certain choke points, like the Middle East, the Middle East, and the certain Malacca, that's probably enough, okay? The point is to get China to submit. The point is to control China, not to destroy China. All right, this is important because if you want to become a major power in the world,

you need to trade effectively. So Russia has something called the North-South corridor, and as you can see, it runs through Iran. Iran, okay? Iran is very important for the Russian North South Corridor, and that's why the United States is attacking Iran. And that's why the United States is not going to ever stop attacking Iran. Because as long as Iran is at peace, Russia can trade with the world. But if Iran is being destroyed, there's too much war, this entire region is blocked off from both Russia and China. Russia has been called the Belt and Road Initiative. As you can see, from a map, the center of the Belt and Road Initiative is, of course, Iran.

All right. If China wants to access Africa, Europe, the Middle East, has to go through Iran, or it goes through the sea, the Strait of Malacca. As I already said, the next step for America is to close off the Strait of Malacca as well to Chinese trade. Then where do you go? Well, then you go over to the Western Hemisphere, but that's American territory. Yes, you can trade with Russia.

You can trade with Russia. You can do that, but it's not enough for your economy. Doesn't make sense. Right now, China gets about 20% of its oil from Russia. Maybe Russia can provide 30% or 40%. or 40% at most. That's very optimistic. But where are you to get the other 50%, 60%, okay?

Your options are very limited. If Iran is at war can't give you any oil, then you're forced to buy from the United States. Okay? If you're forced to buy from the United States, the United States can set the price. You can set terms. It can dictate terms to you.

And what the United States will say, you have to buy in U.S. dollars. Okay? and that saves their economy. Does it make sense, guys? This is not a hard idea to understand. This is exactly what it says in the US National Security Strategy. Okay?

So, in many ways, you can make the argument that what's happening around the world right now, it's all an American policy of containing China where in these flags are a US military basis. As you can see, China's completely true. China's completely surrounded by US military bases in Japan, in South Korea, in Taiwan, even in Indonesia and Malaysia. China, Philippines, China's completely surrounded, okay? And this is it, the Strait of Malacca.

This is a major choke point. And as you can see, it's not that hard for America to cut off that choke point, right? You see how much trade goes through the Strait of Malacca? You can see how many US bases are here. And you can see a lot of this trade goes to Middle East, but hey, guess what? The Middle East is at war right now. So no more oil, no more energy, no more LNG from the Middle East.

So you might go to Angola, but this is very important. The Americans have recently announced a naval blockade in the Indian Ocean. Okay, so that's kind of your route as well. So if you're China, yes, you could rely on Russia, but you see how little this is. Okay, there's too little trade between Russia and China, and you can build it up, but it's going to take you 10, 20 years time and what do you do for the next 10 years? Right? Your people need food to eat.

You need energy to fuel your factories. And so for the next 10 years, you have no choice but to work with the United States. And that's what Trump means by negotiating from a position of strength. Because you can set terms. You can force China to accept whatever terms you want. And quite honestly, if you just look at this map, there's very little that China can do about it. Okay? This is war in the Middle East.

There's also this war in Russia, which also absorbs a lot of. Russian energy. So Russia doesn't have that much resources to spear to China anyway. But America does, the Western Hemisphere does. Because the Western Hemisphere is at peace. So as long as the Western Hemisphere maintains a fortress, okay? Meaning it, no one can attack the Western Hemisphere, then Western Hemisphere can continue to supply resources to the world at war. So this is what the war is about, guys. It's about creating conflict in the world so the United States can maintain its empire. The way it maintains its empire is by maintaining its control over global trade.

Okay? And the idea is America in the future will provide the world with energy, resources, weapons, and financing. meaning we will actually lend you the money to buy this stuff as well and what do we call this stuff? US dollars, okay? And so this worked really well in 1950s

under something called the Marshall Plan. Okay, the Marshall Plan. Same idea where America made products and it lent money to Europe to buy products from America. Same concept here where in the few, the world is at war, people are poor, but it's okay because America will lend you money to buy energy, resources, and weapons from America. And American factories will go up, America will be great again, make America great again.

All right? Okay. But for this plan to fully work out, America needs three. things okay the first thing that it needs to do is create a national draft does that make sense guys because you need soldiers in order to maintain America's core interests right so whichever nation is defying you you go attack right the goal is for Russia and Europe to constantly fight each other the goal is for China and Japan have constantly fight each other you and you need

Iran-contracted fight with the GCC and Israel, okay? So you have these three major conflicts around the world. But if there's any nation that's at peace, well then you have to create conflicts, okay? Maybe in Africa. You also want to control the Western Hemisphere, so you need soldiers to go and conquer nations that defy you. Okay, so the first thing that you need is a national draft.

All right. Second thing that you need is something called Continuity of Agenda. What does this mean? It means like now that you have this plan in motion, you cannot have a change in government, okay? So let's just say they're implementing this plan and they're doing that right now.

In 2008, the Democrats win. Well, that would screw things up, okay? So Trump needs a third term, right? A Trump third term. Because only he can implement this plan and make America great again. And the third thing that you need is an AI surveillance state. Basically, a AI police state.

Why? Because again, this plan can only work if the Americans don't rise up and revolt like they did in the Vietnam War. Okay? If you have a national draft in place, if Trump's going for a third term, there's going to be a lot of Americans who are going to protest in the streets, who are going to rebel, right? You can't have that happen to screw things up. Therefore, you need an AI surveillance state

in order to help them see the light, right? So, ice, guys, okay? Ice. People believe that ice is being sent to the streets of America in order to catch illegal immigrants. The problem with this is that you don't need ice. You just need cooperation from the state authorities, okay? What ICE is really doing is basically created conditions for a police state.

It's normalizing or making common the idea of armed soldiers patrolling the streets of America in all the major cities. All right? And the reason why we think this, or we can suspect this, is look at their budget, man. Look at this budget. Before the budget was kind of stable, then boom, it goes up to $90 billion. That's a lot of money, okay? That's almost like a new national police force that is only obedient to Donald Trump.

It's basically Donald Trump's private police force in order to implement his vision, okay? Also, data centers, guys, data centers. Now, I know that some of you are big fans of artificial intelligence, but artificial intelligence doesn't really make any money, chat chutee you don't you can't make money off that you can't make money off digital girlfriends or digital pets right so why is America building all these

data centers around the world in fact the federal government under Trump has a plan called operation Stargate where they will build 500 billion dollars okay they will invest 500 billion dollars in building data centers around the United States. Well, you would want to build data centers if you want to create a AI surveillance state, right? Where everyone has digital ID, digital currency, and where everyone can be monitored, to avoid people from rebelling against Trump. Okay? And that is the idea. Okay. And you listen to this, and you think, oh my God, America is doomed. Or Donald Trump's going to become king for the rest of of his life. There's something we can do. Well, the problem is this. The problem is that this idea

of imperial conquest is actually not a new idea, guys, okay? It really isn't. Empires have been doing this for a long, long time. It has not worked out well. Okay? So the goal again to summarize is to create a situation where you have greater North America or or they call the tagnate. And this becomes a fortress. You have infinite resources, infinite manpower, and you can sell weapons, resources, and financing to the rest of the world.

You want to create as much conflict in the world as possible, right? So here it'll be between China and Japan. Here it'll be between Iran, Israel, and the GCC, okay? Here will be between Europe and Russia. Basically, you want a world for a very, at war so that you can control the world. And all America has to do is control key choke points, okay? Key strategic choke points, like the street of Malacca, Homoos, Jabotr, Panama.

Why? Because once you control the choke point, you can control which nations get what resources. If a nation is becoming too strong, you give them less resources. If a nation is too weak, you give them more resources. And as a result, you can always maintain the balance of power in each region. Right? So it sounds like a great plan, but it's not going to work out. Why?

Well, because of something called nationalism. Okay? Because you need to do this, when you are an empire and you impose your will on other nations, these nations are not happy about it. Right? So imagine Japan, South Korea, Europe. Europe. There people know that they're being used, right?

So eventually they'll be like, screw this. We want to be independent. We want peace. So they will eventually rise up against the empire. And the way they will do this is they will work together to destroy America or basically to remove America from the world. You can't actually attack America. Now, what America can do is say,

screw you with the entire Western Hemisphere, we have infinite resources, we can make infinite weapons, and you can never attack us, so we'll come and attack you. Okay? They could do that. The problem then is you have division and corruption. Okay? So an empire and decline always suffers from corruption and division. Corruption just means that, yes, you've allocated $1.5 trillion to making weapons. But guess what? The vast majority of that will be stolen by people right the America right now is is in a lot of trouble because it's a very

corrupt place division means that the Democrats and Republicans fight all the time what we call political polarization so it is possible that as America is being asked to fight more wars overseas you have civil war in America the other thing is when America takes over the entire North America including Canada, Greenland, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Honduras, they won't be happy about it, okay? So you're gonna have insurgencies. All right and this three problems, nationalism, corruption in the vision, means that when America actually tries to implement this plan, it's gonna backfire. It's

going to accelerate the collapse of the American Empire. And then you ask yourself, okay, if historically we know that empires will collapse, why do they do this? And the answer is because it benefits them in the short term. This is a short-term solution that creates long-term problems, but who cares about the long-term? Let's just enjoy the short-term, okay? All right? Doesn't make sense. Okay, any questions? You previously said that America will lose the war but according to the analysis that you just did like America will try to control

nations around China and those nations but it will finally backfire so the result of that predictions will still be America will lose right? Yeah so again the major prediction is that America America made a short term seem as though it is winning, but in the long term, because of corruption, division, and nationalism, America will be forced to retreat back to the Western Hemisphere, and it will lose its empire.

All right? And yes, America will lose the war in Iran. Okay, be forced to retreat from Iran. But it doesn't really have to win the war. It doesn't have to defeat Iran. It just has to make Iran constantly in a state, of chaos and war. Does that make sense?

Because the point is to control the choke points. The key are the choke points. These are the keys. This is what America must protect. And what happens in Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Iran, doesn't really matter. But what America wants to do is create as much chaos as possible in these places

so that they depend on America for resources, for financing, for weapons. Does that make sense? America doesn't really care anymore. If it loses its war in Iran, that's not the big, that's not the point. The point is to maintain control over strategic choke points. So the world depends on American resources to survive. Okay?

Yeah? Does China or any other countries discerns that America is trying to control the trade route of China? Oh, look. Okay. What America is doing is obvious, all right? It's silly. It's really obvious to people, right? There's nothing you can do about it.

There's nothing you can do about it because America has a blue water navy that controls the oceans. So the question then is, what happens to the long term? Well, in the long term, what's going to happen is that Russia Russia will challenge America in these choke points, okay? And this is already happening in Cuba, okay? Cuba is here.

And we'll discuss this next class, but Cuba is under embargo right now. And Cuba is trying to become closer with Russia. Okay? So what Russia's gonna do is set basically its own navy to challenge the American Navy. And Russia cannot win against the American Navy, but what it can do is,

fight a war of attrition against the American Navy, raising costs. Okay? That's number one. Number two is that if American could go and blow energy supplies around the world to make the world more dependent on America, well, Russia can also block energy supplies to make the world dependent on Russia. Okay? So what's going to happen is that Russia and America are going to compete against each other.

All right? And most of the world is ultimately going to side with Russia in order to balance the United States, because the United States is too much more boldly. And at this point, in a short term, China has no choice but to work with both Russia and America. Because China's not strong enough to challenge either. Does it make sense?

Okay. Yeah? Yeah, Alan? So my question is about how Trump gonna gonna like deal with the internal conflict in American. Like there's, right now he only had like 37% of supporting rate and Democrats didn't agree with his plan. So how he gonna do about this?

And what is, if Democrat party didn't agree with Trump's plan, what is the plan of Democrat to American? Okay, yeah. So first of all, Democrats have no plan. This is why America is in so much trouble, because the Democrats have actually no plan of themselves, okay? So even if the Democrats were to win office in 2028, what they would probably do is continue Trump's plan,

because they themselves don't have any plan. Trump's plan to stay in power is just basically, he'll cheat. Okay, he'll win the elections, he'll cheat. That's his plan moving forward. And he'll probably get away with it. he'll probably get away with it. Okay. Any more questions, guys?

All right, so we'll continue this next class, okay?