Predictive History - The Story of "Civilization", "Secret History", "Game Theory" and more - Game Theory 5: The World Game

Episode Date: February 6, 2026

Game Theory 5: The World Game

Today we examine the question why is it that states, countries, nations, they rise and they fall? Okay, so let's start off with an example that you know pretty well so this is the warring states period and at this point in history there are many powerful states okay so for example the chew the jiao the way okay and And if at this point in history, and this is about 250 BCE, I ask you to figure out using game theory, which state would unite China, and become the first great empire of China,

well, there are certain metrics that you would use to figure out which state would win out, okay? So obviously, you would look at population. Who has the largest population? So the question of mass. The second question that you would look at is maybe resources, right? And resources, it's basically just farmland. So you would look at basically which areas had the most rivers, okay?

And so you would be like, okay, well, this area, you know, looks very strategic as is this area, as is this area. Okay? And then you would also look at maybe technology. So basically which state has the most scientists, which state has the most advanced literature arts. And then from these metrics, then you could do some analysis and figure out that maybe two would come, conquer all of China at some point. Okay? But at no point using any metrics would you assume that Qing would conquer China. And there are certain reasons why.

First of all, it's in mountains, so it's pretty poor. Second of all, it's pretty far away from the rivers and trade routes. And third of all, it's pretty isolated. So you could not possibly imagine that the Qing dynasty would conquer of China. But in fact, it is the Qing that would come and conquer all of China. And not only that, but if you look at most of human history, this pattern repeats itself. If you look at a region, the strongest nation does not come up on top. It's usually the weakest, most marginalized area that will eventually come and conquer the entire

territory and create an empire okay so clearly the way that we understand history it's problematic it's wrong so what I want to what I want to do is propose to you a new way to understand how empires come into being okay and this was actually first proposed by a Muslim scholar historian named Ibn Kodan okay and And he proposed the idea of Abasaya. And all this word means is basically cohesion or group solidarity. His theory is that, yes, the people on the margins, they're poorer.

But because they're poorer, they're more unified. They focus more on solidarity, on working together. Whereas in the rich areas, they become too individualistic. They become too decadent, too corrupt. And ultimately, that's why it's always these tribes from the margins that actually conquer the wealthy civilized areas. Okay? And this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout human history all the time. So it's almost like an iron law of history.

So what I want to do is show you that there are actually three metrics I can use to measure how dynamic a society is and how likely it is to triumph in the end. Okay? These three metrics are energy, openness, and cohesion. Okay? Cohesion just follows the idea of ab-by-side-out, which is just to say how likely is it that these people are willing to work together.

They see themselves as a team. Are they willing to sacrifice themselves for each other? Are they a family, okay? So that's the idea of cohesion. Openness is a very important concept, and openness just means how willing are you willing to adapt? How willing are you, how much are you willing to accept your limitations and be resilient, okay? So you can think of openness as humility as resilience.

Energy just means that you're willing to work hard, you're focused. You have a clear goal and you're motivated to achieve this. goal okay so these three metrics tell us how dynamic society is gonna be and using these three metrics we can now better understand why that the Qing dynasty was able to conquer all of China okay so the idea is that if you're rich okay you're rich okay what happens often is that you have low energy and what this means is that the elite don't want to work anymore they rather just exploit the other people okay the people and because

the people are being enslaved they're too much in debt they have low energy as well for them it's not really about building a great nation it's not really about doing a great job it's just about getting by okay so and then the idea of openness is is that the elite become extremely corrupt they become very insolid they become very arrogant and so they refuse to a that they're wrong and as a result society becomes stagnant it doesn't really improve and the idea of cohesion is that because of wealth and a quality because of corruption people are much more individualized people are much more

animized okay and this allows for a new group to come in and conquer everyone okay doesn't make sense guys all right so I'm gonna use sorry I I'm going to use actually another example. An example is the Greek city-states. And when the Greek city states, it's really the height of human civilization. They gave us Homer, Plato, Facilities, Sophocles, okay? Just basically the basis for all of Western civilization. Now what's interesting is that for most of the history, the Greek city states, and these

These are basically like these small cities. There are 1,000 of them, and on average, they're about 1,000 people each. There's some big city states like Athens, but even Athens is not that big. So at its height, Athens had about 50,000 people. Okay? So these cities like Athens, Thebes, Sparta,

these are the major ones, and there are others also as Korean Argos. They're always in competition with each other, very much like the Chinese warring states as well. And again, if we would look at the year 500 BCE, you would think that maybe Athens or Sparta would emerge as the grand unifier of the Greek city states. And in fact, what happened was that Athens did become an empire, but then the other Greek city states started to attack Athens, and Athens declined over time.

And the advantage that Athens had over everyone else was just tremendous. First of all, Athens had the greatest navy. As you can see, the Aegean is primarily about who controls the seas. So Athens was able to control the trade routes in the Aegean. Therefore, it's the wealthiest city-state. It has the greatest population. It has the most innovation. It has the most strategic location.

It has the most wealth. So you would just assume that Athens would come to conquer all the greatest. city states but in fact it was the Macedonians okay who came in and conquered all of the city states and at this time in history you couldn't possibly imagine that because the Macedonians were poor they were isolated they were not all cultured they were uncivilized okay but again they had energy openness and cohesion and that allowed them to conquer the city States. What's amazing is that even after this area was unified, okay, the Macedonians would then do the impossible and go over and conquer the Great Persian Empire,

the first great empire in human history. It was huge. It was Egypt, Anatolia, Mesopotania, the Zagos mountains, Persia, it was everywhere. And in a very quick amount of time, the Macedonians under Exeter and the Great, they sailed across the Aegean, London, a small fort, and then very quickly, in about 10 years' time, conquered the entire Persian Empire. And at this point in this, you would think that the Persian Empire, sorry, you would think that the new national empire would be invincible. But then what happened a few decades later is the rise of the Romans. Who are the Romans? Well, at this time in history, we don't know who they are, okay?

Rome is probably here somewhere, okay? But as you can see, the entire Italian peninsula is being colonized by the Greeks. And then the Romans, who are these poor, backward, tribal people, eventually over time, they will conquer the entire Italian peninsula, and then go and conquer the Greek mainland, and then it will go south to conquer Carthage as well. And they will create the Roman Empire. Okay, so this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout human history. The empire becomes corrupt, lazy, arrogant.

And this gives opportunity for a troubled people, whether it's a Macedonians, whether it's a Qing, whether it's a Roman, to come and conquer all of them. Okay? But another question then is, okay, if that's true, and so let's look at more examples, okay? of this let's look at the Aztecs and the Aztecs is even a more stark example so this is a this about the 16th century 15th century okay as you can see the Mexican peninsula it's it is divided into different warring city states okay very similar situation to the Greek city states and the Chinese city states then what's

happened is the Aztecs we are going to come in from the north okay And the Aztecs are a poor tribe that's starving. So they're basically from North America. They come in because they're looking for food. And they're warrior people. So they're hired by other city-states to fight for them. Eventually they become too powerful, so they become isolated onto a marsh. And this marsh, it's poor.

And everyone just assumed that they would starve to dev. in this marsh. What's amazing is that as a people, they became very creative, and they turn this marsh into farmland. And over time, they will slowly conquer everyone, okay? And they establish the Essex Empire, which rules over millions and millions. And then what happens, which is one of the greatest mysteries in human history is, you have another group of people called the Conquistadors from Spain,

and there's one about 500 of them, okay? arriving about the year 15 and 19, they come in and in like a very short amount of time, they conquer the entire ethnic empire. And Spain comes to rule basically all of South and Latin America. Okay? So even though, yes, we have a formula in place, whichever group has the most energy, whichever group is the most open, the most cohesive, will conquer the other groups. It still doesn't explain to us how this happened, how this guy, Hernant Kiddits, were 500 conquers, was able to come in and conquer a land of millions and millions, okay?

Now, there are historical explanations, including, of course, disease. People from Spain had diseases, and the Aztecs were not the immune system to counter these, these diseases. Another explanation is the Aztecs believed that these conquisters were gods, and that's why they surrendered very quickly. Another explanation is that the conquistlers had allies, local allies that were pissed off at the Aztecs. But again, these explanations, they sound okay, they sound like they were, but they don't actually give us the full picture of what really happened. And in game theory, what we're really trying to figure out is what happened. What exactly okay it's a game how are the players playing the game what are their

motivations water incentives okay doesn't make sense okay that's what we're trying to figure out what actually happened in this instance I want to look at one more example before we look into the theory of game into in game through okay this is one of the early civilizations in human history okay in fact it's considered the first great civilization of human history It is the Samarians. And what happened was that, if you look at a world map, okay, this is a world map, right?

Mesopotamia is the center of the world. Because you want to access the rest of the world, you have to go for Mesopotamia. And if you look at Mesopotamia, the center of Mesopotamia is a place called Uruk, okay? Sorry, Eric, Orik, okay, which is here, okay? And as you can see, Uruk is the meeting place of the Euphrates.

and a Tigris. And if you look at this, the York allows you to access the Persian Gulf, which gives you access to India, what we call it IVC, the Indian Indianese Valley civilization, and then you allow, and then traders are able to take the goods across to Egypt, okay? And then you're able to go north to Anatolia. So why did Europe become the first great world city?

Because it was the center of all global trade. So different people came together into the city in order to establish a trading post. Okay, and over time it grew and grew because it was very wealthy. Okay? And over time, it's up colonies elsewhere. Okay? So it's up colonies in other places. And then eventually these different city states came into a conflict with each other,

which is the same process of what happened with the Chinese warring states as well as the Greek city states. And you would assume that one of these cities would conquer the rest. But in fact, again, it was these tribal mercenaries from an isolated region called the Acadians, the Acadians, who would come and conquer everyone else, okay, the Acadians. Okay? And after they built the first empire, okay? Then what happened is that other people would come over and conquer them as well. And then you have people from the Zagos Mountains, the Persians basically, come in and unify the entire area and create the Persian Empire.

All right? So this is a pattern that emerges throughout human history. It's a pretty consistent pattern. Okay? We have theories as to why this is happening. Yes, we do know that groups that are energetic, open, and cohesive are, will triumph over other. groups but the idea of game theory is to figure out exactly what happened okay so let's go over exactly what happened and I'll show you that's what's happening

is that as nations rise and fall the games they play changes it doesn't make sense the game changes and therefore their motivations their incentives the strategies change over time all right Okay, so are we clear about the history here? All right, okay. So in the beginning, okay, game theory, game, rise. In the beginning, you as a people need to come together and build a land in which you can all prosper, or at least have food to eat, okay?

Therefore, the game is cooperation. And the mechanism cooperation is actually religion. So in this first game, okay, what you're trying to do is you're trying to create a dynamic religion that motivates people to be energetic, to give them reason to work really hard. Okay, and the people who are best able to articulate this religion become the elite. And this includes poets and priests. All right, poets and priests. And at this point in history, it's basically a startup.

Everyone's enthusiastic, everyone's working hard, everyone feels as though they're making a positive contribution to the world. But over time, what happens is that the elite become hereditary. The game becomes, how do I, the elite, pass on my privileges to my children? And the way they do that is by changing the religion. Okay?

The religion now becomes almost like a bureaucracy. So in the first game, the religion is about energy. It's about creativity. It's about working together. But in the second iteration, the religion becomes like a bureaucracy, which is like you must follow the rules of the game. Okay, the rules of the game are set, there's a hierarchy, and you must obey this hierarchy.

Okay? Now then what happens is a process called Elite Overproduction. The idea of elite overproduction is that, yes, these privileges are being passed onto the children, but now over time, there are too many children. And so what happens is that society breaks up into different factions, okay?

And usually what happens is that these factions are divided according to the princes, okay? So if there are four princes, okay, who are about to inherit the throne, there are four different factions that support them. That doesn't mean the prince is the leader of a faction. It just means that the prince is the symbol of a faction, okay? All right? And at this time in history, the way that they reduce the conflict is the losing factions.

What they do is they move away, okay? their exile, okay? And then they have to set up a new colony. And this is a process that continues where the losers of the game are forced into exile until there's no more place to colonize, okay? And now you have the warring states period, the warring states period. And in fact, what's interesting is that the warring states period It's a time of maximum creativity for a civilization.

Why? Because the idea of open cooperative competition. Okay? So back to the Qing, back to the Greeks, the Sumerians, there are different colonies, and they're all competing against each other. And so you need to be open and innovative if you're a triumph, okay?

At the same time, they're training with each other, so they're sharing best practices, they're sharing innovations with each other. So this leads to the idea of open club competition, which again marks the height of the civilization. So guess why, guys, trying to spend around for 5,000 years, but most of the innovations happen when?

It happened during the Warren States period. There's 100 years when we had Kongz, Confucius, Mengzi, uh lao zhe uh z zh zh zh it's basically everyone okay all right and if you just look at um other civilizations it's the same for other civilization as well where if you look at the greeks during the classical period they basically created everything that becomes a foundation for western civilization okay does that make sense all right now what's interesting is what happens next Eventually, what happens is these city-states figure out that, you know what, yes, the game is we compete

against each other, but we can also choose to work together, okay? How do you work together? By intermarriage, okay? Intermarriage. And the idea of intermarriage creates the idea of ecolibium. And at this point in history, warfare becomes organized warfare. Okay, so remember before warfare was about innovation, but now when these elites from different city-states, when they intermarried with each other, okay, they have a new equilibrium. So they are above the state now. Okay, does it make sense, guys? All right? So now when they fight, is that really about fighting each other? It's about reducing their population to maintain control. Okay, it's a way to resolve the elite over- production issue, we have too many people striving for too many status positions.

Now when you do that is for population control. So warfare becomes a mechanism of population control. All right. So even though these city states are still in theory competing against each other, they essentially now have reached an equilibrium. An equilibrium, another one for equilibrium is basically the day of empire. Okay? All right.

So now the game changes. Before during the war states period, it's a game to see which state would be the best, the most innovative. And that's why you invite people who could contribute the most to your city state. That's why you were meritocracy. You only promoted the best and the brightest. Once you reach an equilibrium, you don't have to do that. All you do is just maintain the status quo.

And so what happens is you create this rigid hierarchy, and what matters is who reaches the top of this hierarchy. And as a result, you create court politics, right? Court politics or factional struggle, factions. Okay? Doesn't make sense, guys. All right. So if you look at any court politics, the faction that triumphs is to the one that's able to solve three problems, okay? Three problems.

These three problems are secrecy, trust, and coronation. Remember, in theory, everyone has to obey the bureaucracy, right? But if you just play by the root of the game, you're going to lose. So what you want to do is you want to cheat in the game. But if you want to cheat in the game, you have to do so secretly, okay? to do you secretly. But if you do so secretly, that creates a problem of like, how do you trust each other?

If you don't, if you, and if you don't, if you're doing it on secret, the problem is like, how do you coordinate? How do you move together, right? Because you can't have meetings where you take notes because if you discovered, you'll all be executed by the other factions, okay? So historically, the way we resolve this issue

is through the idea of secret societies, okay? So let's figure out how things work. And this is true for China, this is true for the Greeks, this is true for the Aztecs, this is true for everyone, okay? But there's certain aspects of secret societies. The first is the idea of secrecy. How do you do that? Well, you do that through the idea of a hierarchy.

Okay, hierarchy. Or complementarization. And so there are different, so within secret societies, there's a hierarchy as well. where only people that are the very top know what's going on. And if you want to join, you initiate it, but you have put that bottom, okay? And slowly you climb the ladder, okay?

And this is to maintain secrecy. Trust, how do you get people to trust each other? Well, you get people to trust each other through the idea of transgression. Okay? So if we cheat unattached together, we are much more likely to trust each other. Doesn't make sense, because if you're caught,

you all get punished, okay? So by bringing a law together, we can trust each other, okay? And the most basic type of transgression is the idea of ritual sacrifice. And the idea of ritual sacrifice is you basically decide to go kill someone together, okay? You capture that person, then through some ritual, you then kill that person, okay? Doesn't make sense. And then just one of the problem of coordination, you have the idea of eschatology. Eschatology is just mythology, all right?

Why are you guys doing what you're doing? Okay? And the answer often is, because we're trying to serve a higher God that wants to conquer the world, and we are her servants in this quest to conquer the world and end the world to make it a paradise.

Okay? So different suicides, different eschatologies, but the system is the same. Okay? Doesn't make sense. And what happens is, and this is really important,

every faction has to form their own secret society and now the game empire becomes one of a struggle between different secret societies doesn't make sense meaning what mean what you don't care what happened to the empire you don't care about the enemies of the empire all you care about that you your team emerges on top of the game okay and so what does that mean it means it means that you become, sorry, insular. Alright, okay? You become insular.

You also become corrupt, okay? Because you need resources to play this game, so what you do is steal from the people, okay? It's all about trying to steal as much as you can in order to feed your faction. You become insular, you become corrupt, okay? And then divide it. Okay, do you understand?

This is what happens because of different factions within the empire or the equilibrium. They become insular, they become corrupt, and they become divided, okay? Which is why they ultimately lose to the struggle factions because the opposite of insular, of course, is open. The opposite of corrupt is energetic, and the opposite of divided is, of course, cohesive, cohesion, okay?

Now we understand why ultimately the borderlands, the tribes and borderlands, are able to conquer the empire or the equilibrium. Does that make sense, guys? But there's actually more to this. And so what happens is that you have to do different factions, different societies fighting against each other. And again, from their perspective, all they care about, is winning against their factions.

So what do they do? What they do is they invite other foreigners to come help them. They do you understand? Okay? So these are all called mercenaries. All right? And these mercenaries come into them

and their leadership is absorbed into the Sikh societies through eschatology, for transgression, through hierarchy, okay? hierarchy okay all right so this is what happens these mercenaries actually invited in okay and and like but there's always contact okay kind of through trade banditry mercenary okay doesn't make sense because these people these in the regions they're so poor to do anything to survive so the trade of you but

they also steal from you and also come and fight for you okay what's important is that through trade, they're becoming welfare. Through Benetri, they're becoming welfare as well. And by working with your mercenaries, they are learning your best technology, your best fighting skills, your best weapons. Okay? Right?

And then what happens is that the mercenaries eventually take over. At first they merge, but then the mercenaries just kill everyone and then take over. And that's what happens. That's why the Qing way to conquer the war in states. Okay?

They don't teach you this in the history class. But according to Game 3, what happened was that different factions of these different states actually invented Qing to help them in their political struggle. And then the Qing just basically conquered one by one by one.

Doesn't make sense. Same with the Macedonians, right? The Macedonians came in and helped one city state, then they conquered one city state and then moved on to the next, okay? But it was always a certain part of that city state, a certain faction of that city state,

which invited the Mars is in the first place, okay? Doesn't make sense. And this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout human history. Okay, so you want to know what's gonna happen today, what's gonna happen tomorrow, to figure out which areas of the world are the most energetic, most open, and most cohesive. And then figure out which empires are the most corrupt,

most insular, and the most divided. Okay, and then you'll figure out who will conquer who. All right? Doesn't make sense, guys. Alright, so I'm going to give you two more examples to better illustrate how this works. All right, so when I was in high school in Canada,

we played a game called the World Game. And in this game, it's very simple. You're put into a team of maybe four or five players, okay? And then each team is assigned a game. country like maybe USA Britain, Britain, India, Pakistan, Japan and then each team is given an envelope okay and then within this envelope you're given certain resources okay so basically you know paper scissors ruler okay and then there's there's an organization called a World Bank and what you're trying to do is

You're trying to become the wealthiest country in the world. Now, when you do that is you take your resources and you turn it into commodities that the World Bank buys from you. Okay, so maybe like triangles and circles and squares, okay? But to create these commodities, you need resources, right? You need scissors, you need rulers, you need paper,

you need glue. Okay, but different countries will have different resources, so the United States has everything, okay? Okay? And Pakistan is interesting because Pakistan usually gets nothing. Okay? There are no resources. But you're allowed to trade with each other, right?

Okay, you're allowed to trade with each other. Okay? So even though you have nothing, you can go to the United States and beg and say, oh, oh, could I please borrow your ruler for today, okay? Then you go to print and say, hey, can I, can I, can I, can I, borrow your paper for today okay or hey i'll come work for you for free right you can trade and so you play this for it for one day and it's really interesting what happens okay usually what happens i'm not saying all the time but i've seen this happen a lot at the end of the day you

you look at who are the wealthiest countries in the world what happens is well the united states becomes number one okay why because united states has everything in the world it is the wealthiest country in the world that's just too much resources okay But number two is interesting. You would think it would be Japan and Britain, but it's actually Pakistan, okay? The country that starts out with nothing at all. Why? Because they're forced to be the most energetic,

the most open, and most cohesive. Team members have to go and beg to work for free. Okay, other team members go and lie and cheat and steal, okay? They're forced to be resourceful and creative. Okay, the world game. And that's how the world works, guys. Just because you have the most resources, just because you have the most people,

does not mean you'll win the game at the end. What matters is how energetic your people are, how open they are, how resourceful they are. That's what matters. Okay? And often, they are, we open, energetic, and cohesive because they're poor. Alright? It's that simple.

Pakistan has nothing, so they're forced to be be creative. Poverty leads to creativity. Okay. Noticing this is that if I were to surmise the future, I would say right now in East Asia, I would think that North Korea has a better future than China, okay? Just based on history. And it would be like, that's impossible. North Korea can then feed its own people. Well, I understand that. But if you know game theory, okay, you understand the principles that we've learned today, then you're forced to include that in East Asia, North Korea has a better future than China. Because ultimately, it's about how open, energetic, and cohesive the people are, as opposed to how rich and powerful you are. Okay?

Doesn't make sense. I will also point out another example. Okay? So before teaching in high school I was teaching teachers how to teach STEM okay state STEM education and I usually run two-day workshops and what I would do is I go into school and I divide the faculty the teachers into teams okay like teams of like four or five and it'd be like ten teams okay there'd be a lot of teachers and the way I teach is I would give an assignment and I would give them resources and I and it'll be a competition Okay, so for example, let's look at which team can build the fastest car, okay, toy car. Let's look at which team can build the best airplane.

Let's look at which team can build a catapult, okay? So I would give them some resources, I give them the assignment, and then they would work on in a whole day, okay? Now, what's interesting is at the end of the first day, you would have, I would direct the teams, okay? And then, number two, and then day two, we would start the competition again with a new assignment. On day two, which team would finish first? Do you guys know? So after day one, all 10 teams are ranked according to their success, okay? So team one has the best, 10 team 10 has the worst.

What happened the second day? Can you guys guess? Yeah, team 10 will. Yeah. When in the game theory, what happens is Team 10 wins. And this is exactly what happens. The results are reversed, okay? Number 10 shoots up to number one,

and then number one falls all the way down. This is what happens a lot. It's actually common sense if you think about it, right? If you're a bad student in the school, you never have to reflect, you never have to think about how to improve, because you're always number one. So it become arrogant, you become complacent. So after you graduate from school, what happens?

You can't find any work, because people find you too arrogant. You refuse to learn. You want to be the boss. You want people to just listen to you, okay? But if you're the worst student in a school, you're used to being laughed at. You're used to constantly adapting.

So when you go into the workplace, you are much more likely to learn. You're much more likely to focus on relationships. Okay? So in China, there's a joke, right? In school, there are two people that everyone hates. The best student and the worst student. Why do you think the best student?

Because the best student is going to graduate and come back as your principal one day. Why do you get the worst student? Because he's going to graduate and come back and give you a lecture on how to become rich. That's why in China, everyone hates the best student and the worst student. And these are two students who will probably be the most successful, especially the worst student. Because the worst student, regardless of all his problems, he's open-minded, he's willing to work hard,

and he's willing to help build teams and make sacrifices so that others become his friend. Okay, right? Yeah, we have a question. So, like, for example, for this case, in day two, the team 10 becomes the first one and the first team becomes the last, But will the, like, will the, previously the first team been forced to be open and to be energetic and then be number one again on the third day?

That is a great question. Thank you for asking it. Okay. So in my experience, this is what happens, okay? What happens is that if, what happens if we keep on going, right? What happens in day three, day, team, day three, day four, okay? This what happens. Team 1 really screws up on day 2, right?

They finish first in day 1, day 2, they screw up. Day 3 and day 4, they'll continue to screw up. Why? Because they don't know what they did wrong. And they refuse to reflect. Do you understand? Okay? So we see this in history where an empire, once it rises, it falls and it never comes back.

It never comes back. Do you understand? It never rises up again. Now, it's possible that new people come in and use the name of the empire, but it's not the same people anymore. It's a different team. So that's a danger of being number one.

Once you're number one, you become so arrogant that becomes impossible for you to be humble again, okay? Team two, we go down, okay? So it's very unlikely that you have a system where, okay, team one, they fall, but then they reflect and become number one again, okay? It doesn't work that way. When societies fall, they just die off, okay?

It's possible a new group comes and pretends to be them, but they're actually a different people. And that's this way that humans work. Okay? Does that make sense? Yes. Okay. Yep.

So on the third day, the team 10 will become the second last group because they fall and the group nine will be the first one. Is that the cycle that will go on? Yeah, so I've never run on day three, so I can't say for sure. Okay. But that's what should happen, okay? All right, that's what should happen where, yes, team 10 will fall off, and a new team will come into place, okay? All right, and if you look at history, that's the way it is. Again, we don't have an example of where an empire fell, but then the people decide to, like, change their mentality, and then they become the best again, okay?

So in the future, if we apply this theory, there should be three countries. that will emerge as great empires in our history, okay? Germany, why? Because he lost World War I and lost World War II. Doesn't make sense, guys. They were never an empire. They were never a world empire. So Germany, according to this theory,

will one day come to rule the world, or at least Europe and Asia. Okay, and if you actually look at their history what happened in World War I and World War II, they lost millions of people, okay? So Germany will be one day a great empire. I'm pretty sure of it actually. And then there's another country that would be a great empire,

and that is Japan. Because Japan lost World War II. It were never a great empire. So Japan should come to dominate East Asia, according to theory. Remember, the Americans dropped two nukes on Japan, right? And also if you live in World War II, the Americans destroyed Japan with firebombing.

The Americans killed more firebombing than actually did with the nukes, okay? But Japan was destroyed, it was human, And now you go to Japan, you can see how energetic people are. Right? You can see how open they are. And you can see how cohesive they are. You understand?

Because Japan was destroyed in World War II. It's something that forced them to reflect as a people. And now they want vengeance, basically. And the last country, of course, is Israel. Because Israel, the people in Israel, believed that for thousands of years, they were persecuted. by other people. Okay, so these are three great empires that we will move towards in our history.

Germans, Japanese, Japanese, and the Israelis. Okay, does that make sense? All right. The Americans are done. How about China? Done. Okay. All right.

Look, look, guys, guys, I mean, like, this all just a theory, okay? But all I'm saying is, look around you and ask yourself, are the people here open-minded? Are they willing to learn from their mistakes? Do they ever say I'm wrong? Are people energetic? Do they take their work very seriously? If I give people an assignment, will they work really hard to make sure it's done well? Do people feel as though they're all part of one big group?

Are they willing to make sacrifices for each other? Japan is, okay? That's all I'm saying. And maybe even the North Koreans are. All right? Does that make sense, guys? And again, it's all just a theory. All right?

I'm just proposing to you a theory of how to understand the world, but what's actually going to happen, I can't actually tell you. But according to this theory, Germany and Japan and Israel will be the three great nations. Any more questions, guys? Yeah? Yeah? Yeah, but like for example, Japan didn't have that much sources, so how could it succeed? I keep on telling you guys.

You don't need resources. You can cheat. You can steal. You can beg. All right? Okay? Doesn't make sense. Yeah.

Okay? Like if you go back to the World Game, um, whichever team starts up with the least resources are often the most creative, okay? When I mean creative, they'll just like go and like lie to people. Says, you know, like,

I'll come work to you for free, but then you'll steal some, some resources yourself, okay? All right? Because they have actually no choice in the matter. Right? Yeah? Yeah, so I have a little questions.

Like, you say that those who are poorest and like in the most dangerous positions always have the most energy and cohesion to succeed. But I think eventually... Okay, so, so, okay, let me be precise, okay? Just because you're poor does not mean you're open, energetic, and cohesive, okay? Does not mean that. But if you want to go from being poor to become rich, you have to be open, energetic, and cohesive. Doesn't make sense?

Yeah, so. Because in Africa, they're poor, but doesn't mean they're open, energetic, cohesive. Yeah, so my question is, like, after they become successful and they're eventually rich, I think, like all society, they may fall as, like, when they reach their higher state, right? Yes.

Yeah. And so my question is, Like you say that like Japan or Germany will eventually become the like the leader of the after like regions Yeah, but like I understand that after World War war war two the Japan and German really developed very fast but like now they are all wealthy societies and also their young the youngers the new the new the new the new the new the new the new the new the new the new the new new people in their country forget about the war and they, well, when they're born, they're born in the wealthy and like happy, happy societies. So how can you make sure that the society, those societies will continue to cohesion and

developed, but not like just to fail like other rich societies? Okay, you know, that's a good question. That's a great point, okay? You're absolutely right. Because after World War II, Japan and Germany became very wealthy. So if they become very wealthy, then in theory it shouldn't become also corrupt, insular, and arrogant? And the answer is no, okay?

And there's a good reason why. Because ultimately, power means that you're able to impose your game on other people. You're able to make other people play your game, and therefore you're able to extract rent from other people. Okay? And that's what these secret science are fighting for. They're fighting for power. Who becomes the game master?

The problem with Japan and Germany is, yes, it became very wealthy. but the game master was America. And ultimately, America decided that there when it belongs to me, okay? So the example of this is something called the plastic courts, okay? Plastic courts. Basically, the plastic cord just meant that Japan was becoming too wealthy.

America got very annoyed. So America said to Japan, I want you to destroy your economy. And Japan is like, how? America says, says, I want you to spend too much money. I want your people to stop saving money and start spending money. Go overseas and buy whatever crap you want, okay?

You understand? So in theory, it seemed as though Japan got rich, but Japan got rich, but it never had any power. It could not be a sovereign nation. Power means that you're able to impose your will on other people. Same with Germany, where, yes, Germany came very wealthy, but all that money went where it went to America all right same with Japan Japan all that money went to America How because they were forced by US Treasury bonds

Okay, and then America could do stuff to you for example America could force Japan to sign a plastic cord and force Japan to destroy its own economy America could also destroy Germany's pipeline North Street and there's nothing Germany can do about it okay in fact the Germany economy has been done destroyed right now because Germany is a vast state to America. So when Russian invaded Ukraine, America just basically said to Germany, you can no longer do business deals with Russia. But before, Germany required Russian oil and energy to fuel its economy.

America also said to Germany, you can no longer trade with China. But before most of German car exports were going to China, right? Yeah. And because Germany was forced out of the China market, China was able to develop its own manufacturing industry. Okay? Does that make sense? Yeah.

So it seems as though Germany and Japan became very wealthy. They were not, they were just vassal states to America. Okay? Does that make sense? Yeah. So I have a question. Yeah. So like you said, that only those society who are very poor, but they want to, they have the ability

to cohesion and be energetic, and they can eventually become the ruler of the regions. But what decide a society or a poor society to become energetic cohesion or not? Like why Japan or German have that energy, but like those other countries that may also be defeated in the war or as very poor cannot? Yeah, that's a great question.

Yeah. So the obvious answer is a leader, okay? So you look at the Mongols, right? The Mongols, before the Mergers-Conn, the Mongols were almost like a vassal state, right? Because the Mongols were divided, they were poor, they were willing to do whatever it took to survive. And so they became mercenaries to the soul, they became mercenaries to other groups as well, okay? but then emerged Ganga's Khan to unify everyone. And once he was able to unify everyone,

the moments were very quickly able to destroy everyone else. So it's usually a great leader. But leader doesn't necessarily mean a general. It could also mean a poet, right? So someone like Homer or a great thinker to give you a new religion. So for example, the person who had someone called Zoroastra, who we studied last semester, okay, even Jesus, okay? But someone who comes to say that we are our people.

And it could be a poet, it could be a general, it could be a prophet, a priest, doesn't matter, okay? But that one person then unifies the imagination of everyone into one cohesive group. Okay, does that make sense? Yeah. Okay, but that's a great question. Thank you, okay?

And that's why such certain groups are able, to cohere together and other groups are not because one person is able to emerge. And you know, that's why, okay, we'll talk about this later on, but that's why the world is the way it is. Why do we have organizations like the United Nations? Why do we have international development aid? The goal, guys, is to identify the possibility of a leader emerging and make sure he does not emerge.

You understand? Okay? If you left Africa alone, Africa will be a lot better. But because you have all these schools, all these NGOs, all these organizations in Africa, what they're really doing is ensuring that Africa is in a continued state of development. Okay? If just left them alone, they might starve. But at the same time, a great leader might emerge to unite all of them.

You understand? Okay. But we'll talk about this next class, how the American Empire controls the world.