Prof G Markets - Do Japan & the U.S. Have a Deal? Google’s Q2 Earnings & Home Prices Hit a Record (Again)

Episode Date: July 24, 2025

Ed and Scott break down the new U.S.-Japan trade agreement and what Wall Street’s reaction tells us about who really came out on top. Then, Ed digs into what’s pushing U.S. home prices to record highs. Finally, Ed and Scott Devitt, Managing Director of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities, break down the key takeaways from Google’s second-quarter earnings. Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth" out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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accurately predict the weather. Put another way, Scott Galloway should have been a weather man. Welcome to ProfG Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is July 24th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices all rose on news of a trade deal with Japan and word that the EU and the US are progressing toward an agreement. The S&P had its 12th record close of the year and the NASDAQ closed above 21,000 for the first time in history. Meanwhile meme stock mania continued with Krispy Kreme and GoPro ripping in early morning trading.

And finally Tesla shares were volatile in post-market trading after reporting a second consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue declines. Okay, what else is happening? Trump announced a US-Japan trade deal via his social media platform, Truth Social. The agreement lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Japan from further tariffs on other goods. Auto stocks surged on the news, sending the Japanese markets to a one-year high. Honda closed up 11 percent and Toyota posted its biggest single-day gain in over 15 years. So Trump has completed a quote, massive deal with Japan. perhaps the largest deal ever made. That is according to his

Truth Social post. What does the deal actually entail? Well, America will reduce its tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%. Okay. And in return, Japan will quote invest $550 billion into the United States. According to the president, that investment will occur at his direction. It will create, quote, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and the U.S. will receive, quote, 90% of the profits. So it sounds pretty good. Now, what exactly will Japan invest in? We don't know.

When will the investment occur? What is the timeline? We don't know. When will the investment occur? What is the timeline? We don't know. How will it be structured? What are the deal terms? We don't know. And has this agreement even been signed? Well, on that question, we actually do have the answer. No, it hasn't been signed. Ryosei Akizawa, Japan's negotiator, said that he will quote receive a report on the details in the future. Not exactly a binding agreement here. So we've seen this movie before. In fact, we've seen it a number of times. Back in May, Trump said that Saudi Arabia had pledged to make a $600 billion investment into the US. That was in contrast to his other claims that they would

invest $1 trillion and then other claims that they were going to invest $300 billion, multiple competing claims. And since that announcement, no actual investments have been made and no actual deal terms have been signed. Before that, Trump announced the Stargate project, which was supposed to be a $500 billion investment from OpenAI and SoftBank. New reports are now saying they actually haven't raised that money and they are actually struggling to get that project off of the ground. Around the same time, we saw this Apple investment announcement. They were going to invest $500 billion into the U.S., which Trump was parading around to the media.

Soon everyone realized, wait, actually, this is just a continuation of plans that Apple already had. And then Apple, of course, started moving its supply chain to India. And then in Trump's first administration, he made a very similar announcement with China. China was going to make a $200 billion commitment and that never happened either. And so on and so forth. We've seen these investment commitments time and time again, and so far, none of them have panned out.

So do we have a deal here? Well, in the sense that we've lowered tariffs, sure. But remember, we were the ones who put the tariffs on in the first place, and lowering them was supposed to be a quid pro quo. We were supposed to get something. So if history is any guide at all, then you will conclude that this $550 billion commitment is not actually a commitment. It's more of a press release. And in fact, the markets would agree. We saw huge gains in the Japanese stock market, especially the auto stocks. We saw a lot of complaints actually

from the American car makers. And we saw an overall reaction, not to the investment proposal, but to the tariff change. As Charu Chinana, the chief investment strategist of Saxo put it, the market sees this investment as quote, political theater, rather than a tradable catalyst, i.e. not real. So if you want to call this a deal, have at it, be my guest.

But in our view, a deal means you sign something, specifically something that is actually new. So a non-binding framework, not a deal. A commitment in principle, not a deal. A provisional expression of intent, not a deal. A deal is a contract or a treaty that is signed and ratified into law. This isn't that. So let's check the scoreboard. Let's look at the deal tracker.

We are still at zero deals. Well, we want to get Scott's take on this situation. So let's give him a call. Scott, good to see you. Good to see you, Ed. We'd love to get your reactions to this US-Japan deal. One of the biggest deals in history, apparently. Any thoughts?

Let me get this. We have a 0% tariff of our cars going into Japan, which was an easy gift for them. And by the way, that's what the deal was before. But the reality is it doesn't matter because the Japanese don't want our cars. We sell 2 billion into Japan. If they sell $55 billion of cars into our nation, if you want to talk about just a of cars into our nation. If you want to talk about just a cultural or a sociological Delta that, that props up in terms of consumer preferences, we basically

sell boats with steering wheels and the Japanese have no desire to buy our cars. They want, they just don't want our cars. Whereas we want Japan did to Detroit, what Netflix is now doing to LA. They basically globalized it. You don't remember this, but in the eighties, they showed up with something called a Honda Civic and a revolutionize the automobile market, the USC seven monopoly on it, and they came in with this little ugly car called the Civic that cost 40% less than an equivalent product and was cheaper to maintain.

When I went to graduate school, I sold my BMW 3 Series, which I had bought with my first bonus check for Morgan Stanley so I could attract a lovely Zed. I hung swim goggles from the rear view mirror because I thought that would make me sexy even though I don't swim. By the way, it didn't work. It didn't work. One of your most embarrassing stats, I will say that. Oh, no, that's just me.

That's not them. We're going to need a bigger boat. But the point is I sold it when I got into business school. I sold it to pay for business school, but I still needed a car. So I bought a 1984 Honda Accord. And I'm not exaggerating. I put five bucks of gas in that thing and it would just go.

I don't think in two years I ever even put oil in it. I mean, Japanese are amazing cars, but back to my original question, other than this weird press release that they're investing $550 billion in the US, which is not enforceable, which is not a legally binding agreement, what exactly is different about this?

What's the fuss about? What's different about it this time? exactly is different about this. What's the fuss about? What's different about it this time? The way I put it, you know, we're up to maybe 50 tariff announcements, probably more, still zero deals. This doesn't count as a deal to me.

I think just going meta for a second, I think 2025 in retrospect will be amongst other things. The year it was the end of late night television, different talk shows, so to speak. But I also think this year is really signals the decline in the beginning and the end of the US automobile industry. If you look at the nonsense with the tariffs, General Motors just reported they took a billion dollar hit to earnings because directly related to tariffs. So to your point, it's finally creeping into the supply chain.

I also think it's going to give international car buyers an opportunity to just buy fewer of the kind of bigger truck gas gasoline cars that America produces to our hero or kind of our national champion, which was Tesla, the most valuable automobile company in the world, just reported a sales decline of 12% Tesla, which has a trillion dollar market cap and a PE of 190, is effectively, their revenues are declining faster than any automobile company in the world. And no amount of announcements around robots or flamethrowers or tequilas or drive-throughs is going to distract the markets for long enough before Tesla collapses.

In addition, you have BYD, which is the most ascendant company, arguably manufacturing in the world, which is going after the heart and lungs of Tesla. So what do we have? Our traditional champion, General Motors is taking a huge hit because of tariffs. Our traditional champion, General Motors, is taking a huge hit because of tariffs. Our national champion, Tesla, appears to be just not competitive in waving and doing all jazz hands around any manner of things to get people to look away from an unsustainable market cap. And we have quote unquote new tariff deals that seem to me to be not only not good for

us but ceding advantage to other automobile manufacturers. So I think that you're going to, when we look back on the decline of the U S automobile industry, we'll look at the eighties because we were making just shitty cars. You don't even remember, you weren't even around for the Pacer, the K car, the EMC, Gremlin watch breaking bad. Uh, the Pontiac Aztec that sort of embodied the American auto industry. It did have a bit of a Renaissance with trucks,

but my sense is the EV race has been lost now because Tesla has lost it to BYD. Tariffs have given international buyers another reason not to, or this tariff nonsense, not to buy our cars. And we're just struck a deal with Japan that made it clear for Americans to buy, quite frankly, their superior cars.

This is the beginning and the end of the Colbert, Jimmy Fallon, and Jimmy Kimmel era. And it's also the end, in my opinion, it kind of signals another step down in the US automobile dominance globally. The market really does absorb millions of points of light and issues a decision on what actually is going on. And it's based on fear and greed, which are pretty unbiased emotions, right? And look at what's happened. The president has said that his tariff policy will be good for America. And the markets decided that this is really good, a step change in

positive economic value for Japan. The Nikkei just hit an all time high. These auto Japanese automobile companies have had some of their best days in the history of the markets and American automobile companies are flat to down. So the market granted the market could get it wrong but the most neutral arbiter absorbing millions of points of light have said, this deal is absolutely a win for Japan and not the US.

We're in agreement there. Okay, thank you, Scott. Enjoy your day. I'll see you tomorrow. We'll do it. Thanks, man. US home prices just hit another all-time high. The median price for an existing home climbed to $435,000 in June, up from $423,000 the month before. That is a 5% jump from last

year and a nearly 50% jump from 2020. Meanwhile, existing home sales fell almost 3% to a nine month low. And at the same time, mortgage rates remain above six and a half percent. Put another way, it has never been less affordable to own a home in America. That was true last month. It was true the month before that. But what we are witnessing is that somehow the problem continues to get worse. I honestly can't believe it. Every month I think to myself, okay, this is probably it. This is probably the top.

There's no way prices could go even higher. Not when the 30 year rate is near 7% and not when prices are six times household income, there's just no way. It doesn't make any sense. But every time I'm proven wrong and the month of June was no exception here. So the question is why? Why are prices still going up? What is actually driving this? Our producer Claire spoke with Jake Crimmel, a senior economist at realtor.com.

How and why are prices still going up despite the fact that we're seeing still almost 7% interest rates and more houses on the market and time of market still increasing? How is it the case that prices are actually still going up and part of it still has to do with the fact that demand and supply are still out of balance? Classic economist answer, but that's sort's where we are and where we'll probably continue to be for some time. I think there's a good news and bad news here for prospective home buyers, especially for prospective first-time home buyers. On one hand, sticker prices, list prices, and sale prices are all still quite high. And despite, again, growing

inventory, high interest rates, those prices haven't come down much against a lot of economic models that were put in place and forecasts for that matter. So prices are still stubbornly high. That's the bad news for prospective home buyers, especially first-time home buyers who really need quite a significant down payment to be able to hit their payment to income and loan to value ratios to qualify for a mortgage. The good news for these prospective home buyers though is that they're entering into a market that is actually probably the most buyer-friendly summer that we've seen at least as far back as Realtor.com data go, and that's to 2016.

A perennial feature of the US housing market during the COVID post pandemic period, but even before, was that we were in a strong seller's market. And so what does that mean for prospective buyers is they basically had very little leverage. You heard stories about folks waiving all the contingencies, getting in bidding wars, things like that. And those weren't just anecdotes that was born out in the data, and that was part of what was driving prices up were those sorts of bidding wars. What we're seeing now is one benefit of softer demand and homes staying on the market longer.

And for that matter, more homes being on the market is that buyers have, in general, more choice than they've had before. They have more time to make those choices. And they're actually competing against fewer buyers at the same time. So there's some more leverage at the negotiating table. That being said, it's not necessarily a great time for folks to try to be able to afford, you know, a $600,000, $700,000 house as a starter. That's still very difficult to do for most folks. Right. I mean, that would be my followup. It's that it's a great buyer's market if there's no competition, but maybe there's

no competition because everything is just too damn expensive. So how do you square that? Like where, where do we go from there? Right. So, I mean, it's one of those things where if you're already in the market and, you know, maybe you've saved up, maybe you've hit a windfall, maybe you're moving from a very expensive market where you're renting it into a sort of a less expensive metro. If you're fortunate enough to be in that position, yeah, you're potentially like the winner of

the more buyer-friendly market. But as far as like, where do we actually go? I mean, these are sort of much more entrenched problems housing supply Housing shortages. Those are sort of perennial Decadal long issues that we're only beginning to being able to tackle Not to mention that, you know, single-family owned construction has slowed a lot recently as a result of you know high mortgage rates weighing on on builders more uncertainty macroeconomically,

and also this sort of like pullback from buyers as well. So we kind of are in a bit of a holding pattern on the supply side, unfortunately, because that's ultimately going to be the only thing that can actually help to moderate prices sort of in the longer run and in a more permanent fashion perspective, first time home buyers. That was Jake Crimmel, senior economist at realtor.com. And you may have noticed Jake mentioned economic uncertainty at the end there. I think an assumption a lot of people might have after hearing that is that Trump caused

this. And as we've discussed, yes, Trump's policies are inherently inflationary, especially to the housing market, steel, aluminum, lumber, all of those things are essential to build homes and the prices on all of those things are going up. So you know, an understandable conclusion. But is that really the reason that prices rose in June? Probably not. I think you have to remember that one, we're looking at existing home sales here.

So the tariff effect probably isn't going to show up here. And two, as Jake says, there are other factors at play. Factors that have been around for a really long time and that we still haven't resolved. You've got this supply shortage that's been around for more than a decade really since 2008. You've got this rate lock effect where a lot of homeowners bought houses when rates were low. They locked those rates in and now there's very little incentive to sell. You've got multiple different pieces that are all fitting into this giant housing puzzle and Trump is only one piece. Having said that though, there is

no doubt that we are only adding fuel to the fire here. If you want to reduce housing prices, then you should be making construction materials cheaper, not more expensive. You should also be making labor cheaper and in the case of housing one in five construction workers are undocumented. So tariffs and deportations, while they're probably not the cause of this bad news, they are certainly set to make this bad news even worse in the future. Now before we move on, just a quick check in on young people. This obviously affects young people. In the past 50 years, the home ownership rate for young people has been cut in half. The average age of a homebuyer just hit a record high of 56 years old.

For comparison, in 1980 the average age was 30 years old. And many of us are indeed still living at home. A third of adults aged 18 to 34 still live with their parents. So, not great, not great, and not likely to change anytime soon. After the break, we'll take a look at Google's second quarter earnings. Stay with us. Support for the show comes from Atio. Attio is an AI native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies. It's extremely powerful, adapts to your unique data structures and scales with any business

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Book your next adventure at delta.com. We're back with ProfG Markets. Google kicked off big tech earnings with a beat on the top and bottom lines. Overall revenue rose 14% compared to this time. Last year, cloud revenue increased 32% and Google search revenues saw double digit growth. They beat on essentially every metric in what CEO Sunder Pichai called a quote, standout quarter. However, the stock initially fell as much as 2% in after hours trading. As we record this podcast, it is beginning to tick back up. So

joining us now to break down these earnings is Scott Devitt, Managing Director of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. Redbush Securities. Scott, thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me, Ed. So, we want to get your reactions to these Google earnings, which were pretty much impressive across the board. A beat on revenue, a beat on EPS, kind of a beat on everything, and yet we saw this initial sell-off in after hours. Your reactions to the earnings and also the market's reaction to the earnings.

Well, the initial, I think it's up now, but the initial reaction had been up 10 consecutive days going into the print. So it was probably just in response to that. If there was a little noise in the quarter, the reported operating margin percent was a little light, but there was a one-time charge. So you don't realize for that. And that wasn't the case either. So like you said, it was clean across the board and where investors are most concerned is the search business and that accelerated from 10 to 12%. In addition, the company's paid clicks, which is a closely followed metric in terms of the

health of the business accelerated from 2% to 4%. So it's really clean across the board in supporting Google as an AI winner. What are your thoughts on the CapEx number, which was raised to $85 billion for the year? That's their estimated guidance. From what I've heard and from what I've seen, people and investors are a little bit worried about that, that it's too high. Any thoughts on the CapEx? Would you agree with that? What do you think? Well, you have to spend the money to make the money, and right now it's spend the money time because we're going through a platform transition.

And so in prior cycles, you know, Google's proven to be very sensible in terms of their spend. You're seeing these types of numbers elsewhere as well. So the question becomes, it's not just an alphabet question. It's a question for everybody on the front edge of this that's spending on the CapEx to build products is, you know, is there going to be a return? As they get through this period, you know, it's important to kind of monitor the margin

profile of businesses. You know, I highlighted that. But you know, you have to believe that AI is going to lead to stronger businesses on the other side, or else we're going to have a major problem. And so we do believe that, but investors will question it until you start getting to the point where the capex number stopped going up. And I'll tell you, when you do that, if you start seeing the returns, I mean, that'll be very negative for infrastructure companies, but very positive for consumer facing companies. Yeah. We also saw this huge growth in the cloud business,

which to me reflects a level of AI demand that seems to warrant more investment in CapEx. 32% growth, beat expectations of 27%. Any thoughts on the growth in that business and what it says about Google's positioning in AI? Well, Google's doing a good job with the cloud business. I mean, they are in third place. Microsoft's doing better, Amazon's doing better,

but Google's in a good position. There's room for three, given the size of the market and given the efficiencies that it creates throughout the entire ecosystem of these companies to be in this business. So being three benefits, you know, the rest of Alphabet as well as on a standalone basis. So the business itself was healthy. It did accelerate to 32% growth this quarter.

But in that context, I think Microsoft and Amazon are doing better in the cloud business. For Alphabet, cloud was still good. Where the controversy is, is more in the advertising business. And so that was the big surprise and why you're likely to see the stock go up tomorrow and probably continue its momentum, you know, that started the last couple of weeks. Yeah. We also saw some detail on Waymo. Sundar Pichai said that Waymo has now driven over 100 million miles. Waymo, in our view, is the number one in autonomous,

almost like a monopoly in America. But we don't feel that, or it doesn't seem like Wall Street cares that much, or at least that doesn't seem to be reflected in at least the valuation of Google, which is still a lot lower than the rest of big tech. Any thoughts on Waymo? How does Wall Street feel about Waymo? And do you think it's perhaps undervalued? Well, and there's a huge opportunity for investors owning Alphabet for the possibility

that this business gets re-ated up really across the board. The search business gets rerated up because it's viewed no longer as structurally impaired because of AI. YouTube gets rerated up because investors being respected, competitive position in terms of time spent and the ability to monetize that. And things like Waymo start to be valued as separate business units, not necessarily on current free cash flow, but on the long-return prospects. I think Waymo and what Tesla's doing, they're very different strategies. The Waymo approach works today and is a linear progression. The Tesla approach is more of an S-curve in terms of that if it does work, watch out because it will change the world. And I think that investors are a bit more excited

about that possibility, which is maybe why it gets a little bit more embedded valuation in the stock, even though outside of maybe 30, 35 cars in Austin, yet you're not really seeing it live and certainly not without a human being in the passenger seat. Yeah.

And just to, as we wrap up here, any thoughts on the valuation as a whole? I mean, as I said, uh, trading around 21 times earnings, uh, lower than big tech, lower than the average of the S and P 500. Um, why is this? What is the market pricing in and what you, you mentioned the possibility of some reratings on those businesses. Why hasn't that come yet for

Google? And as another example, lower than eBay in e-commerce. So the market believes that the search is pricing in the possibility that search business is impaired or that AI search is not as profitable as legacy searching because it's 55% of the business and the higher percentage of the margin for Alphabet, that they're effectively saying, no, it doesn't trade at 21 times earnings. It trades at 28 or 30 times earnings because their numbers are gonna get hit in the future. I don't subscribe to that myself.

And I actually think that Google should trade in line to a premium if you believe this is more of like a 100 year company that's structurally sound and then has all these options on top of it as well. But you go through these periods like the mobile transition, where advertising facing companies had multiple compression during that period because nobody knew how they could monetize from desktop to mobile and then they figured it out. For Alphabet, you had the emergence of Amazon Prime back in 2006. You know, and Amazon's been very successful with Prime,

but Alphabet and Google Search has continued to be successful over that 20-year period as well. So it's another one of these controversies. And when the controversy passes, as it looks like it's beginning to do, I think you get that rerate. And with Alphabet, I think you probably have two, three turns in the multiple to go. Thank you very much, Scott. I appreciate you joining us. Thank you. Have a good day.

That was Scott Devitt, Managing Director of Equity Research at Webush Securities. To summarize, Google beat on revenue, Google beat on earnings, they beat on search, which despite concerns that it would get beaten up by AI or open AI, it grew 12% year over year. They beat on YouTube, still the most popular streaming platform in America, up 13% and they beat on cloud, the AI business up 32%. The only thing that you could possibly criticize, the only criticisms I'm seeing,

is that they are over-investing in CapEx. They're over-investing in AI. But is that really a bad thing? Or does it just mean that cloud demand is growing and Google's getting ahead? As Scott said, you gotta spend money to make money. So we think the market's going to come to its senses here. In fact, it kind of already has. The stock initially fell in after

hours, but it is climbing back up. We're still looking at a 21 times P.E. multiple for one of the most ascendant companies in AI and media and autonomous. You can't forget Waymo. We were long Google last year, we were long Google this year, and we're still long Google today. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks for listening to Profitory Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Ed Elson. Join us tomorrow for our conversation our space. Support for the show comes from Upwork. Smart businesses aren't just cutting costs, they're building smarter. With AI, top-tier talent, and flexible solutions, Upwork makes it possible. Upwork helps connect businesses with expert freelance professionals using AI-powered solutions

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