Prof G Markets - Google vs. Nvidia: Is the AI Chip King Finally Under Threat?
Episode Date: November 26, 2025Ed Elson is joined by Patrick Moorhead, CEO and Founder of Moor Insights & Strategy, to break down the news that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, and what that means for the ...broader AI race. Then, Santiago Roel Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion, joins the show to unpack Bitcoin’s recent slide and share his outlook for crypto heading into 2026. Finally, Ed closes the episode with a message on gratitude. Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Thanksgiving can be stressful. But if anyone can teach you how to cook a turkey, it's this guy.
One year, I had to cook almost 80 turkeys.
80? Yeah, 80 turkeys. And that's not even counting the sides and the mash and the stuffing.
And that was a light year. The year prior, I think it was 160.
turkeys? This week on Explain It to Me, we help with the turkey so you can worry about everything
else. New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts. Today's number, 154 million. That is how many
goats exist in India more than any other country in the world. The other number that we could
have gone with is one. That's how many goats host this podcast. Money markets matter. If money
is evil, then that building is hell.
The show goes up.
The President never watch the show,
sell, sale.
Welcome to Profitey Markets.
I'm Ed Elson.
It is November 26th.
Let's check in on yesterday's Market Vitals.
The major indices
climbed on continued hopes
for a rate cut in December.
Consumer confidence fell by the most
since April, fueling bets
that will see a quarter point cut
from Jerome Powell.
Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year
Treasuries fell on reports that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair.
And finally, Bitcoin declined again.
More on that later.
Okay, what else is happening?
Another week, another win for the Google Bowls.
Meta is in talks to spend billions of dollars on Google's AI chips known as TPUs.
The deal marks a shift in strategy for Google.
TPUs were generally confined to its own data centers.
Now they could be deployed across the data centers.
of other companies. This also marks a shift for Meta, which up until now has relied mostly
on one company for chips, and that is Invidia. Google stock rose as much as 4% on the news,
pushing it closer than ever to a $4 trillion market cap. The stock was already soaring,
thanks to the release of Gemini 3, Google's new large language model. Meta also rose 4%.
The most dramatic stock reaction of all, however, came from Nvidia, which fell as much as 7%,
which leaves us wondering,
did Google just become
NVIDIA's biggest competitor?
Care to help us answer that question?
We're speaking with Patrick Moorhead,
CEO and founder of More Insights and Strategy.
Patrick, thank you for joining us again on Profty Moffields.
Yeah, thanks for having me on here.
It's craziness out there, so let's chat.
100%.
Yeah, we need to make sense of all of it.
I think the first thing we need to make sense of.
I mean, the big news is Met is spending all,
all of these billions of dollars on TPUs.
Most people are aware of GPUs, but perhaps not TPUs.
What are TPUs, and why is this so important?
Yeah, so think of TPUs as the industry term is ASICs, okay,
which is an application-specific integrated circuit.
I know I'll have some people challenge me on this,
but an ASIC is designed to be a little bit more focused in
on the solution it's trying to fix.
It's typically lower power, all things considered,
but typically it's a little less flexible.
So GPUs are more flexible.
TPUs for a specific workload are typically more efficient.
So using less power, which actually we've discussed a lot on this podcast,
could be a huge problem because of how much AI,
how much power AI is going to drain.
And it looks like META would rather go for TPUs,
or they're going to use that in addition to the GPUs?
What's the decision here behind META reportedly buying all of these TPUs?
Yeah, so first off, there's nothing that's ironclad here.
So it appears, though, and I do believe that they will use both TPUs and GPUs.
And meta itself has made a lot of data center silicon themselves.
It's called M-T-I-A, and they've been, like I said, very focused on certain workloads.
So one of their M-T-I-A's is a recommendation engine.
And, you know, what is Instagram and Facebook?
It's one giant recommendation engine.
Recommend me ads, recommend me content, recommend me friends.
But it appears as if they've looked at their own.
internal capabilities and they left at Google and said, hey, I like what I'm seeing with this
generation of Google DPUs, but I do not for a second believe that they won't be using a ton
of GPUs as well. Yeah. Yeah, it's so interesting to see what happened to Invidia. I mean,
Google rips, Nvidia falls, which seems to suggest that the market believes that Google is,
I don't know, stealing Nvidia's lunch to some extent.
And then I saw this very interesting tweet from Nvidia's Newsroom, which I just want to read to you.
They said, we're delighted by Google's success.
They made great advances in AI.
Invidia is a generation ahead of the industry.
Nvidia offers greater performance, versatility, and fungibility, which is designed for specific AI frameworks or functions.
So I read that.
I don't really know the technical language they're talking about, but what I get the sense is we're still number one.
We're the top dog.
What do you make of that?
So I actually agree with them.
And what they're talking about with fungibility is I use the word flexibility.
And think of it like this.
Let's say there's three generations of AI out there.
Okay.
And again, an engineer would cringe when I use that, but I'm really trying to simplify this.
Let's say you can get three generations out of a certain Nvidia GPU or an AMD GPU.
You might only get one out of an ACPA.
and whether that be a TPU or Inferentia and Traneum over at AWS or even an M-T-I-A.
So I actually agree, and we can debate on performance figures, but if I look at what you can slam into a rack,
it does deliver higher performance.
And I don't know if it's a year ahead, but it is higher performance.
Would you say then that this, the way that the market seems to be punishing NVIDIA
here is perhaps unfair, perhaps everyone wins, Google wins, and so does invidia.
So in this era, and whether you believe what Sam Altman says or what they're saying
over anthropic, there is just not enough compute to go around. And I think everybody is hedging
their bets. They're hedging it with AMD. They're hedging it with TPU and the general industry
terms, an XPU. And what they're doing is they are going to do a bake-off, right? First off is let's keep
everybody honest. Let's cut deals with everybody. And then let's see what actually comes out of this.
And, hey, I can move the knob more on Nvidia, or I can move it to AMD, or I can move it to
TPU. Everybody's keeping themselves honest. And I think I was on your show when we did a, you know, one of your
shows when we really did a deep dive in semiconductors. And I talked about nobody being comfortable
with any supplier that has 90% market share. The industry will react. That's exactly what you're
seeing. And Ed, this market reaction you're seeing is from, I think, people not doing their
homework. This is not new. In fact, a lot of the data that we put out talks about
Nvidia in two to three years having 70% market share, but the market is gigantic. Everybody can
grow and everybody can do very well. So the market's just really catching up with reality.
I think they're over-indexing. I do believe that the five to six quarter, 500 billion dollar
number Jensen put out there is absolutely spot on. And that means you just add up.
that present market value, that adds probably an additional $70 to the stock where it was
two weeks ago. Yeah. It does certainly seem that, you know, if the chip race hadn't already
begun, certainly everyone seems to understand or recognize that it has begun, whether it's
Nvidia or Google or, as you say, Amazon's tranium chips. It seems like all of these players
are now building chips. Perhaps they were for a long time, but now we all certainly know it.
Yeah, so one of the things is up until this point, nobody was swing me around the room on Google AI, right?
Bard came out, and that didn't work very well.
Bard 2 didn't work very well.
Gemini 1 didn't work very well.
Yeah.
And then Gemini 2 was like, hmm, API calls going way up.
Open AIS 73% market share and Google has almost the rest.
Now at Gemini 3, everybody posting these infographics,
these videos out there, it's like, oh my gosh,
TPUs can make great AI.
And that's what everybody's reacting to
because it's in their face 24 by 7
if you hang on on social media like you and I do.
Yes, so that sets us up perfectly
to just quickly check in on Gemini 3,
which was recently released,
certainly a big reason why we're seeing this rally.
And a lot of people are very excited about it.
I haven't used it yet myself, but I thought it was very interesting.
Mark Beniof was very excited about it.
He tweeted about it, and he pinned his tweet that Gemini 3 was the greatest thing he's ever
used, which was interesting.
And then reportedly Sam Altman told the Open AI staff to brace for, quote,
rough vibes and temporary economic headwinds.
I don't know if that is because of Gemini 3, but I do know that it came after Gemini 3.
Tell us a little bit about Gemini 3 and what?
it means for AI. Yeah, so, Ed, this falls under the market share of 90% that nobody's comfortable
with, okay? And it seems like this wheel of innovation between Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and some of the
Chinese vendors is this circle that everybody has, oh, sorry, XAI as well, everybody has the best
new model within two weeks of each other. So it is a big improvement, primarily
because it fixes a lot of the problems that they had before,
code creation, as an example,
was something that Google was not great on.
And then you see all the visual tools
that's getting all of the amazing feedback with nano-banana.
It is a much better model.
Google's first challenge is to figure out
how do I bring higher EPS to Google Corp for its own consumer products?
And second of all, how do they monetize this from an API basis for developers?
And thirdly, how do they monetize this from a Google Cloud infrastructure as a service?
So it is promising, Ed, but we still need to see some of the meat downstream that they can monetize this.
It's not that Microsoft has a lock on business use.
But, Ed, I do these CIO roundtables, and I go to everybody's using Microsoft AI and not just
co-pilot, but things like Azure AI, agent toolkits, and things like that.
So that is going to be a tough thing to break for Google.
But, man, what a strong, what a strong start.
Absolutely.
Before we let you go here, I'm going to ask a very reductive question that you as a technical
expert are going to cringe at, but that's okay.
Not at all.
Who's winning the AI race right now?
I mean, I thought it was Microsoft and then maybe Invidia.
Now maybe it's Google.
They've had an amazing year.
Who's winning right now in 2025?
Okay.
It's not in 2025.
I mean, who's winning in 2025 is Microsoft.
That's who's winning.
If I look at the revenue that they've created based on that financially, they're winning.
The last two weeks, Google Gemini.
But next week, it could be X-A-I.
So, but financially, this is ProfG Markets.
It is absolutely Microsoft for 20, for 2025.
They are crushing it inside of the enterprise, you know,
and they still are the back end and the front end for open AI.
Microsoft is the trusted provider for enterprises.
Google's doing great.
Don't get me wrong.
They're picking up a lot of market.
share, but they still are the number three enterprise cloud out there.
All right.
You heard it from Patrick.
Patrick Moorhead, CEO and founder of More Insights and Strategy, Patrick, always good to see.
Thanks for joining us.
Great to see you, too.
Thanks for having me on the show.
After the break, a closer look at Bitcoin's decline.
And if you're enjoying the show, give Profi Markets a follow.
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The holidays can be a good time to step back and take stock.
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In just a few years, OZemPEC has gone from a diabetes drug to a global phenomenon,
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Hollywood is struggling,
and I want to give Sidney an opportunity to talk about that specifically.
I think that when I have an issue that I want to speak about, people will hear.
Movies are bombing.
Christy Springsteen, Die My Love, L.O.L.
dead. Last month has been called Hollywood's worst box office run in decades, and these were
prestige films. Tinseltown sees the writing on the wall and is pivoting, making a bet on
microdramas. Today on Today explained, we'll explain what they are, but the bold-faced names of it
all, Disney, Fox, Alexis O'Hanian, Kim Kardashian, Chris Jenner pouring millions of dollars into
the teeny tiny next big thing. Today explained weekdays, wherever you get.
your podcasts. I might be a low-born wolf, but I am still Alpha Ash's mate.
We're back with Profi Markets. Bitcoin has fallen for nearly two months now, and it has shown
no signs of stopping. As we discussed last week, it has dropped 21% in the past month to
roughly $87,000 erasing all of its games for the year. It's now down as much as
30% from its recent all-time high in October.
Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Solana, have seen similar losses as well.
And in the stock market, crypto-related companies such as strategy and Coinbase are down
more than 20% in the past month.
All in all, over $1 trillion has been wiped out in the crypto markets in just six weeks.
So for more on what is happening in the crypto markets right now, we are speaking with
Santiago Roel Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion, a crypto holding company, Santiago.
Thank you very much for joining us on Profi Markets.
Thanks, Ed.
Great to be here.
So, Bitcoin is down to around 87,000 now.
It's down more than 20% in the past month.
It's been just kind of a brutal few weeks.
We've been trying to make sense of this.
What's going on with Bitcoin right now?
Well, you know, over the net outflows, right?
you're basically seeing ETF draw like that liquidity dry up the market's just the marginal
buyer is no longer there you know i think um throughout the course of the year the run up to 120k
you saw huge inflows from institutions and you know that has now you're seeing net outflows on the
ETF side do we know who is selling and do we know why they're selling not micro strategy
true but you know there are some whales that have taken profit you know the 100 000 is a very
psychological level i think you saw a lot of profit taking
above that level. So there's still anxiety and nervousness in the market. I think a lot of people
just took profit above that 100K level. And so taking profit, meaning selling, basically,
it's interesting because when I think about Bitcoin, which has something of a cultish ethos around
it, I feel like the whole idea is you never sell. Bitcoin is something forever. We're hodling
indefinitely. So the idea that people are hitting 100,000, and they're switching back into
fiat currency, to me, that's not a great thing for Bitcoin at Lodge. What do you make of that?
You know, Bitcoin's always been this macro hedge digital store value, digital gold,
and, you know, it's sitting at one and a half trillion. That's less than roughly 5% of gold's
market cap. So I'm not overly worried about it. I mean, I think if anything Bitcoin this year
is solidified itself as something that institutions want to have in their portfolio.
It's still very much an macro, tidal macro flows.
So it's going to continue to be volatile as much as it continues to grow, much more volatile
than gold.
But, you know, it's just normal things, Bitcoin doing Bitcoin things.
So the volatility is normal and expected.
But I would say a lot of institutions this year and in the next year are going to continue
to just get off a zero because, you know, it deserves a place in a portfolio.
and I think institutional managers have sort of come around that idea this year, and that's not going to go away.
Does the fact that it's not behaving like gold cause any concerns in terms of this idea that it should be in your portfolio in the same way that a lot of money managers say gold should be in your portfolio, but gold's up, having its best year and years, and Bitcoin's down, does that cause any concern?
Absolutely. I mean, I think if you're a portfolio manager, it's hard to go to your client.
line and say, hey, we put a position on Bitcoin and it's down 25%.
No one loves, no one likes that.
And it's hard, especially if you're a money manager in a lot of my conversations, family
offices are okay with it.
They're more sophisticated.
But the retail investor and portfolio managers, I would say definitely, volatility is an
enemy here because you go to your client at the end of the year and say, here's how
everything performed.
The stock market's up, 12, 15%.
Gold is up.
this thing that was going to be a representation of gold and a hedge is actually down.
Yeah.
And you know this head, but in portfolio construction, you want to have assets that are uncorrelated.
And Bitcoin's always pretended to be an uncorrelated asset class, right?
Small, differentiated.
That's what gold is.
That's what commodities pretend to be.
And I think if you're going into the end of the year, talking to your clients about putting in a position in Bitcoin this year, you're down.
And the market's up.
And so it's very hard because crypto is still a risk acid, right?
It's really far out on that risk spectrum.
And I think there's a pocket of the market and the liquidity that may on the margin be more hesitant to put in a greater exposure to that.
Because there's no one likes volatility.
As much as everyone wants to be here saying, yeah, we want, you know, uncorrelated returns and get off of, you know, beat the market.
It's hard to have that conversation with your clients if you're underperforming.
Yeah. And we look at some of the other cryptocurrencies, especially the alt coins, which have been kind of decimated this year. I mean, they weren't crushing already. But I mean, the meme coins, all of the stuff that where all the speculative stuff is happening. Is that going away, do you think? Do you think that Bitcoin is coming out of this as kind of the one and only crypto? Or do you think we're going to see a proliferation of more cryptocurrencies? What do you think is
means for the rest of the crypto market?
Well, it's an interesting question because Bitcoin is in a rare category of its own.
It's sort of ossified as this digital gold store value construct.
Everything else is pure technological bet, more like a tech stock.
And so I think people that come into the casino, trying to hunt meme coins or Ethereum or
Solana, I think of it as the flows that go into investing in things like AI and technology
stocks. And so it's very momentum-driven. It's very narrative-driven. And now I think the main character
is just AI, right? People just want to, are more excited to put a position there. It's less volatile.
It's well more understood. The narrative is front and center. And so that's sort of my criticism
being in a long-time investor in the space. I just think the industry is overly reliant in this
particular use case, which is a digital casino that is open 24-7-365. However, I will copy it all
that by saying you're going to continue to see a pocket of crypto called stable coins continue
to peripherate. More and more businesses using that. And so it's sort of a, this kind of two worlds
right, you have real technology, real use cases. Companies like Stripe and Robin Hood and SpaceX using
stable coins because it's just a better way of due payments versus the noise, which is meme coins
and what's the price of Dogecoin and Ethereum. And so there's a big disconnect between the
technology and some of these crypto assets and meme coins that are just purely speculative.
and Barry Maldow.
Yeah.
When we look at some of these Bitcoin treasury companies,
which obviously became kind of popular at the beginning of the year,
it's also so interesting because, you know,
this administration was the, it was the crypto administration.
And it's so funny, here we are at the end of the year,
and Bitcoin is down.
But looking at those Bitcoin treasury companies,
micro-strategy is obviously the most prominent and largest example,
which is also getting kind of crushed right now.
What do you make of what is happening in the Bitcoin treasury space?
And what do you think is going to happen to micro strategy moving forward?
I'm not worried about micro strategy at all.
Okay.
They have, they're not a four-seller.
They negotiated phenomenal terms with lenders and the form of convertible notes.
So they're not a four-seller.
Their next maturity is 2028.
And so convertible note holders may elect to get paid in cash, not equity.
So there's a huge margin there in a window for micro strategy to, you know, the interest payments on that is very low. It's like less than 1%. So that's micro strategy. You think sailor being sailor negotiated great terms. There's the whole category of other micro strategy like vehicles that have less favorable terms. And so you are seeing some for selling. You know, Tom Lee has its own vehicle that is warehousing, Ethereum. There's a couple other salana vehicles. They have.
have negotiated as favorable terms. So I'll be paying a lot of attention there because,
you know, as prices continue to come down, it will force some selling into the market.
Yeah. Just before we let you go here, what would be your outlook for Bitcoin and for crypto
going into 2026? We had kind of a good year that ended up turning bad. If you had to make any
predictions, what would it be for 2026? I'm not an Oracle. I would say it's very much side of
macro and liquidity. It will continue to be that. I'm paying a lot of attention to just the actual
use cases of the technology that are disconnected from the price, candidly. I mean, I wrote a blog piece
last week. You can't really justify the valuations of a lot of these networks, putting Bitcoin
to the side, because it's a commodity. It's purely based on supply and demand. Right. But something like
Ethereum, someone like Solana, they're valued at 50, 60, 100, 200 times price to revenue.
Right. The best hottest AI company is trading out 25 times.
price to revenue. So at some point, you know, you have to show fundamentals. And
crypto as much as, you know, the hardest question as an investor is, isn't priced in.
The administration came in, very favorable. It is delivered on the regulatory piece.
Now I think it's a sobering moment for the crypto industry to say, okay, we've created this 24-7,
365 internet capital markets. Can we graduate beyond just being a pure speculative asset class?
and can we deliver on the fundamentals?
Will the value capture be there?
And I guess, like, to me, that's the biggest opportunity,
but also the biggest challenge as an industry
because if we can't really prove to an investor
to the market that the use case is there
and the value capture's there,
I think it's going to be pretty hard
to justify the valuation for Ethereum at $350 billion.
Right.
Because you're rather by, you know,
any stock like Nvidia in the public markets
that is trading at a fraction of that.
And so there's a big disconnect between the promise of the technology and the valuation for a lot of these coins.
And I think the market's kind of, it is a normal thing as the market grows up and starts to realize, hey, am I getting paid enough to take this level of risk?
And I think that's in the back of a lot of people's minds going in, you know, finishing the year and going in the next year, I would say.
All right. Santiago, Roel Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion.
Santiago, thank you. Really appreciate your time and happy Thanksgiving.
Thanks, happy Thanksgiving.
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, which means that markets will be closed, and more importantly, we will not be publishing an episode of markets. Yes, we are taking a break. No episode on Thursday, also no episode on Friday. We will be back on Monday for a special episode in which we will discuss the relationship between money and masculinity. This was a fascinating conversation, heavily informed by Scott's book,
We get into other topics as well.
Either way, I'm very excited for you to hear that episode.
Until then, we're going dark.
We will be giving thanks as it is Thanksgiving.
And before we go, I would like to give some thanks myself.
So first, I want to thank you guys, our audience.
We started this daily show about six months ago.
I don't know if it came through, but I was very anxious at first.
I was very anxious about hosting this solo.
but it turned out to be very successful
and it also turned out to be a lot of fun
and that is thanks to you guys
who tune in and engage with us
on social media and who offer up
your very interesting and often
very hilarious perspectives
and it generally just makes
this business a lot of fun and I thank you for that.
I also want to give thanks to Scott.
I don't know if Scott is listening
but Scott, if you are listening,
I just want to recognize I know
what you have done for me
and it is more than any other mentee could probably describe,
and I am extremely grateful for that.
And finally, I want to thank our team.
If it wasn't already obvious, this show would be impossible
without all the people we work with behind the scenes on this.
So that is Claire Miller, our producer,
who is essentially the captain of this whole show.
Mia Silveria, our research lead,
she is essentially the brainstem of the show.
Our research team, they're the reason we,
find all of these great insights.
Our associate producer, Allison,
she's the one who makes us sound good.
Our editors, Brad and Joel,
they cut this show three nights a week,
our video team.
They're the reason we're on YouTube.
They're the reason we're crushing on YouTube.
There are so many people to thank.
And I say this to give them credit,
but I also say it selfishly.
Because actually the research shows
that by expressing gratitude,
literally writing down
or saying what you're grateful for,
It turns out that that actually makes your life better.
It makes you happier.
Many studies have shown this.
And that's also why I think that this is such a good holiday,
because it's not just a meal.
It's also a reminder of what actually makes humans happy.
It's a reminder that as much money and status as we may try to accumulate,
and we talk about that a lot on this show,
none of that even registers if you can't find a way
to feel grateful for it.
If none of it satisfies you,
if you don't feel content,
if you don't feel appreciative,
then none of it has value.
It's worthless,
by definition.
And so this holiday is really all
about that feeling
and what it takes to achieve
that feeling. And it basically tells us
that the only way
to achieve that feeling, to achieve
the feeling of gratitude,
the only way to do it is to
share with other people. It's to share the food, the space, the camaraderie, the love,
the appreciation, et cetera. The whole thing is about sharing. And if we don't share,
then it all ends up feeling pretty meaningless and pretty depressing. So that's why I like
Thanksgiving. And before we go, I will leave you with a quote from Seneca, the famous
Roman Stoic, the ancient philosopher, who basically summarized everything I just said
in the past rambling few minutes. And this is what he wrote, and this is what we will end with
today, quote, there is no enjoying the possession of anything valuable unless we have
someone to share it with. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller,
edited by Joel Patterson and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.
Our research team is Dan Chalon, Isabella Kinsel,
Kristen O'Donoghue and Mia Silverio,
and our technical director is Drew Burroughs.
Thank you for listening to Profitee Markets from Profit Media.
If you liked what you heard, give us a follow.
I'm Ed Elson.
Happy Thanksgiving, and I'll see you on Monday.
