Prof G Markets - Japan Stocks Hit Record on New Prime Minister & Emerging Markets Post Best Rally in 15 Years

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

Ed Elson is joined by William Chou, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Japan Chair at the Hudson Institute, to discuss the market’s reaction to Japan’s likely new prime minister and the outlook for U.S.-Japan relations. Then, Ed and Scott break down the massive surge in emerging markets this year and what the rally means for investors. Vote for Prof G Markets at the Signal Awards  Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth" out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Money markets, Matt. If money is evil, then that building is held. The show goes up. We're not going to watch. It's so, sell. Welcome to Prime. Offdue markets, I'm Ed Elson. It is October 8th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. All three major indices declined with the S&P snapping the seven-day winning streak. Tech dragged the index down, with Oracle falling two and a half percent on reports that its cloud margins may be weaker than analysts thought. Tesla also sank more than 4% after unveiling cheaper car models that disappointed investors. Meanwhile, Treasury yields declined, as traders took in the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, and finally, gold breached $4,000 for the first time ever.

Okay, what else is happening? Japan is on the brink of electing its first female prime minister. Over the weekend, Sinai Takahichi was elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party or the LDP positioning her as the frontrunner in Parliament's vote later this month. Since the Liberal Democratic Party is by far the largest party in the lower house, her victory looks all but certain. What has been quite notable, however, is the market's response. Since her election, the Japanese stock market, or the Niki, has risen 5%, and it has hit two record highs. So clearly investors are very optimistic. The new Prime Minister will be stepping in at a challenging

moment, both politically and economically. Takaichi succeeds Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned last month amid growing frustrations over rising immigration and the cost of living. Nearly 60% of households in Japan say they are struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, government debt is at 236% of Japan's GDP. So, what does this election mean for Japan? What does it mean for their economy, for markets, and also their relationship with the US? To help answer these questions, let's hear from William Chu. He is the senior fellow and deputy director of the Japan chair at the Hudson Institute. William Chu, thank you for joining us on Profite Markets.

Thank you so much. So, Sanai Takichiichi's just been elected. It appears she will be the new Prime Minister of Japan. I don't know much about her. I don't think most people know that much about her. Tell us about who she is. What is her background? What is her platform?

What can we expect for Japan? Yeah, so I think broadly, She's seen as a conservative lawmaker within the LDP, which is the ruling party that's led Japan basically since 1955. She's seen as a conservative lawmaker who is conservative on social issues as well as foreign policy issues. She previously served as economic security minister in past administrations. And more importantly, I think she's broadly seen as essentially like a protege or a mentee of former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who was, who led Japan for almost 10 years, the last go around. And so she's seen as her election is seen as a victory for the conservative wing of the LDP

in terms of going forward in terms of the policies that they want to enact, as well as addressing some concerns that maybe there's popular disaffection with the LDP and maybe emerging of new parties like the San Sato that have captured some of their more conservative voters within LDP. So she's seen as a reconfiguration of the LDP. We saw that Trump was praising her election. He said she is a, quote, highly respected person of great wisdom and strength. He said this was, quote, tremendous news for Japan. Is that because she is conservative or does she align with Trump's worldviews beyond just being a conservative?

What is the story between Trump and Takeichi? Sure. So I think it's operating on multiple levels, all right? Part of it is the fact that they are both conservative. Certainly, I think they share a lot of views in terms of taking on pro-growth strategies that involve a lot of industrial investment towards a long-term views towards, you know, like strategic sectors, like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, you know, like AI, you know, high-tech stuff. So I think they share a lot of that. They certainly, I think, they both believe in strong defense. I think they both are very wary of foreign sort of aggression, and certainly they're, so I think on that regards, right, where President Trump, I think, has been very adamant that allies has to take more on more of their own responsibility in defense.

Takeichi has talked about increasing Japan's defense spending, which already has been doubled in the past five years to new levels. And I think this is partly in reaction to this acknowledgement of Japan's own need to do more on defense. So I think those two issues align the two of them quite well, right? Also, there's the obvious connection with Abe, whom, you know, I think Trump probably understood and worked well with Trump better than any other leader at the time in his first term. And so the fact that she is sort of his, Abe's protege, I think certainly puts her off to a good start. But, you know, to be very practical about it, you know, President Trump also said similar things of former prime minister, Ishiba, who famously was not an Abbe protege. And so I think part of it is also the fact that the Trump administration obviously sees Japan as a key partner in a lot of its broader economic and diplomatic and security priorities. And I think the administration really values having someone with whom they can work in Japan.

Just looking at the market's reaction. So we saw Japanese stocks rise after the election. The Niki hit record highs this week. You also saw this decline in the yen, a decline in long-term bonds. So we saw yields rising on long-term maturity bonds. What do you make of the market's reaction here? What do you think the market is telling us about this new prime minister? Well, I think the markets are kind of telling us essentially what, you know, Takichi, she's sort of a longer-term reputation, right? So she has a reputation of being someone who is definitely more of – who is interested in sort of fiscal-based growth, right? She's not – she's not a fiscal restrainer. She is willing to – essentially – you know, she has talked previously about pressuring the Bank of Japan to cut rates to sort of pursue fiscal expansionism. Part of it is to address Japan's short-term needs, right? So I think the failure, the loss of the LDP experience in the recent upper house election back in July, I think showed a lot of popular discontent with ongoing economic policies, the feeling that the governing parties were out of touch on cost of living issues, quality of life issues. And so essentially that was a protest vote.

So I think there is near-term pressure on the Japanese government and especially Takeichi to support essentially fiscal expansionism, right? be cutting the consumption tax on food or increasing income tax thresholds. But it's also a mark about her long-term plans in terms of investing in pushing Japanese companies and investing more in R&D that will allow for long-term Japanese economic growth in key strategic sectors. So I think that is what the markets are doing in terms of are essentially reacting to these expectations of Takichi. Certainly, I think the expectation that, you know, Japanese exports will increase, that there will be more spending. I think that's driving the Niki.

It's also driving sort of the weakening yen. And it's also driving essentially at the expectation that Japan will add to its debt burden long term, which is why the 20 and 30-year bond yields are increasing. From my understanding, Japan has one of the highest debt burdens, highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, I think the highest, correct me from wrong, give us a sense of the debt situation in Japan. I believe it is much higher than the U.S. The U.S. already has an extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio.

I've never fully understood how it is that Japan hasn't suffered as a result of this. It seems to be sort of the anomaly when it comes to the national debt. But if we're going to, if Japan's going to increase the debt burden, is that not going in the wrong direction for a country that is already dealing with the extreme? I think Japan's debt burden right now is two times its total GDP, right? Which is the highest in the world. Yeah. But I think what she sees is that essentially Japan has a problem with economic growth, right? It's been, the past few years, it's been at 0.5%. It is not, you know, economic growth and economic power is the basis of Japan's strength. Takichi knows this. Her mentor,

Shenzhou Abe knew this. They both were trying to search for ways to sort of incite Japanese growth. And so the idea is that if we can keep, you know, interest rates low, we can induce Japanese companies to invest more in R&D to produce, to commercialize new technologies that make Japan strategically indispensable country in the world in terms of global supply chains, then maybe we can finally have a pathway towards insured, stable, you know, relatively high, long-term growth, certainly better than 0.5%. And so in her mind, maybe the, argument of, yes, okay, maybe I'm risking increasing debt, but this is for a play for the long-term viability of our entire economy. And so it's worth it. It's a role of the dice that has to be

done. What do you think is the reason behind this low growth in Japan? I mean, is it because there is this risk-off sentiment where investors in Japan are more interested in bonds? They think it's safer, so they're not interested in the stock market. Is it a problem of action? innovation, are we perhaps not seeing enough actual technological innovation in Japan? And that's why we've seen this kind of depressed economic growth. Why are we seeing such low growth compared to, say, America? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a, it's definitely a multi-causal answer. Right. But just to sort of, you know, throw a few up, I mean, I think one of it is the fact that, you know, there is a, I mean, I think the fundamental is the demographic challenge, right?

Japan is a shrinking population, and it is an aging population. And so when you look at different Japanese companies, right, they, so I'll give an example. My understanding is that Japan's, like, industrial capacity is basically at limits, right? Essentially, they have cut capacities to a point where they really don't have any extra capacity. They would have to invest in new capacity if they want to produce more. And a lot of that's due to because Japanese companies feel that, like, this is an aging market, there's a shrinking market. we are not really going to really prioritize this, right? This is why Japanese companies like Nippon Steel are investing in the United States and India

in Southeast Asia, right? It's because they are trying to find growth abroad. The other issues that, yeah, I mean, I think there are some challenges on sort of like cultural sentiments in terms of innovation. I think the Japanese government is trying to change that. I think, you know, frankly, a lot of ordinary Japanese or working Japanese are increasingly also a feeling like, you know what? You know, I don't necessarily want to take the safe job at a big firm for the next 40 years of my life.

And let me try something else, right? Let me go work at a startup. And the Japanese government itself is trying to sort of encourage more startups, especially in emerging tech. They have a, you know, they have a large contingent of folks in Silicon Valley, essentially trying to start up, trying to understand startup culture in the United States, how the VC's ecosystem works. And they're trying to replicate that. But I think in terms of, you know, and I think, you know, a lot of it is also, you know, like when, you know, economic growth is so low, you know, near zero for decades, why really invests, why not just invest in bonds, which are nice and stable instead of taking a risk on, you know, like equities and that kind of thing. So I think it's a combination of both existing economic standards, factors, demographic factors, certainly. And I think there is some cultural, although I don't want to overplay the culture card too much.

Takeichi's been promoting a Japan-first campaign, at least that's what I've read about. Just as we wrap up here, how do the Japanese people feel about Takeichi at this point? Are they excited? What is the sentiment among Japan? Perhaps is it as polarized as America or are the Japanese people pretty united around this? If I can be honest, I think they're a little tired, right? I mean, if you think about it, they've gone through several elections in the past year, right? They've had two LDP presidential elections.

They've had, you know, one general election and also one upper house election. So, frankly, I mean, I think someone pointed out, right, one of the key, you know, sort of center-left, left-wing newspapers on Japan, instead of covering the LDP election, had a front-page story about, cats, right? And so, you know, I think the Japanese public are also just kind of tired of elections, right? And as I said earlier, the upper house election, the defeat that the LDP and its coalition partner, Cometo, suffered, is a reflection of, essentially it was a protest vote, right? And so I think, you know, the last three LDP leaders were relatively moderate or a moderate leaning. And I think they're saying, well, you know, let's give her a chance. Certainly, I

think she's well respected for her policy, her knowledge of policy and her ability to implement things. She's definitely a doer. And so I think with the Japanese public, it's kind of like, well, the last guy didn't quite work out. Let's see if she can be more effective. So I think the Japanese people are hopeful, but they're also a little tired and they kind of just want to see something work. William Chu is senior fellow and deputy director of the Japan chair at the Hudson Institute. William, we really appreciate your time. Thank you. Great.

Thank you so much. After the break, a look at a historic rally in emerging markets. If you're enjoying the show, give Profi markets a follow. Support for the show comes from Mercury, the banking product that helps entrepreneurs do more with their money. For entrepreneurs, your banking transaction history is like a scrapbook of important moments in your startup's history. That deposit isn't just a deposit, it's the first batch of seed capital. batch of seed capital. That wire transfer is more than a wire transfer. It's payroll for your very first employees. Mercury is the banking product made by entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs. It's meticulously

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year, it also beats the S&P, which is up 14%, and this is a sharp reversal from the index's own historical performance. Between 2010 and 2024, emerging markets gained less than 9% over that entire period. This year, they're up 28%. So, what is driving all of this? Well, a few things. For one, the dollar is weakening. It's down roughly 10% this year, and a weaker dollar means a stronger return on international investments. Why? Well, when you as an American make an investment in, say, a Brazilian stock, your return on that investment comes both from the performance of the stock, but also the relationship between the Brazilian Real and the dollar. So if the stock is flat, but the Real is up against the dollar, then if you're

investing with dollars, you are up just due to currency effects. So that is playing a role here. This could also have something to do with interest rates. This is relevant because companies and emerging markets overwhelmingly borrow in dollars to finance their operations. So when interest rates start to come down, as we are about to see, well, the cost to service those loans goes down, which makes those businesses more profitable, which thus makes them more attractive to investors. But perhaps the most powerful force here is something we've talked about for a while, and that is mean reversion. What we mean by that is the stock market in the US is trading at nearly 27 times earnings. Historically, it's traded at now.

average of 17 times earnings. And you would think that maybe at some point things will sort of rebalance. You compare this to say China, where Chinese stocks are currently trading it 11 times earnings, compared to Brazil at 10 times, compare it to South Africa, trading it four times. So perhaps we are simply seeing a return to the mean here, a return to quote unquote normal. One thing is for sure, though, and that is that Scott Galloway predicted this. He was long emerging markets in his annual predictions deck back in January. So let's give Scott a call and let's see what he makes of this. Scott, good to see you. Good to be seen, Ed. I'm here at home, sitting by the fire. Woo, looks good. About to take an edible and listen to the new Taylor Swift

album. All of that is true except for the last part, Ed. Except for the last part. I cannot say I've listened myself. We want to get your take on this emerging markets rally. Emerging markets up 28% so far this year. Way outperforming the world and way outperforming the US.

And you predicted this back in January during your annual predictions deck. Your reactions and also give us a little bit more color on the prediction you made at the beginning of the year. Yeah. So essentially, if you look at the U.S. versus the rest of the world, it usually goes in

seven to ten years cycles, and that is from 2001 to 2007, the rest of the world outperformed the U.S., and then since 2007, the U.S. has vastly outperformed, let's just call it emerging markets. And at some point, the delta between the two kind of connotes the reversion of the mean, and that is usually U.S. markets traded at 25 percent premium for a lot of, of reasons rule of law i p inflow of immigrants capital etc a lot of those things started reversing as far as i could tell and the 70 percent premium which just wasn't justified and it just felt like we were sort of overdue in addition the thing that sort of triggered my reallocation of capital out of the u.s and to uh non-u-s markets was i read a survey that institutional investor interest in u.s markets

outside of the US had hit a 15-year low. And just as the consumer confidence index sometimes presages or is a forward-looking indicator of the markets, I thought this is essentially

I could connote what I described as a reversal in the flow of the rivers, specifically a flow of the rivers of capital. And traditionally about 5% of global assets are invested in emerging market equities, or excuse me, excuse about eight percent,

and it had gone down to five. And if it just reverted back to eight, and it always overshoots. So the average is eight, meaning it'll probably go back to 10 or 12. Even if it just goes back to its average though, eight, that's almost a trillion dollars in additional capital into these markets.

And it kind of justifies or sort of identifies or epitomizes the term market dynamics, Trump individual performance. So if you're any stock in Latin America the last 10 or 12 years, it almost didn't matter how good you were, unless you were Macado Libre, you know, vastly outperforming everyone. Because if capital's being sucked out, you can't outrun multiple contraction. Yeah, one of the big themes that we discussed at the beginning of the year

was this idea, or really after liberation there was the idea of rotating out of the U.S. and into other nations, essentially. we kind of have seen that, but not really. What we've really seen is the U.S. rallying. So, yes, there was the big dip after Liberation Day, but then markets ripped back up, and they've been climbing ever since. We're at around 14% growth in the S&P year to date. So people didn't sell America,

like there were, you know, rumors at the beginning of the year. But what did happen is they held America. They perhaps bought some more America, but they bought a lot more of everything else. So I just pose this to you. Do you think this is going to continue? Do you think we're going to see a continuation of the outperformance of international markets,

the outperformance of emerging markets compared to the U.S.? Is this going to be the trend going forward? I mean, it's so hard to talk about the U.S. reductively because, as we've said before, it's no longer the S&P 500. It's the S&P 10 responsible for 70, percent of the market's gains, and then there's the S&P 490, the rest of it.

I still think that on a kind of risk-adjusted basis, emerging markets still look relatively cheap. Having said that, I don't think it would be a bad idea to invest in non-magnificent 10 stocks right now. I mean, the key is diversification, because reality is nobody knows. I think if we could wake up tomorrow and see those stocks down 60%, and they still wouldn't look cheap, I find that is much more likely than them, you know, doubling, if you will, right now. So, but the problem is that these things come on wound. Everything is somewhat connected. You can diversify only to a certain extent.

In the 80s, everyone discovered that there was risk-adjusted or return, greater return through diversification. So everyone listened and diversified. So if an iron ore stock in Australia goes way down, it impacts Japanese bonds. and impacts the S&P because everything is somewhat connected. But I still think that the emerging markets are just a better value right now, even with their run-up, because as you said, certain stocks of the S&P have run up so much that's dragged the rest of the S&P up.

But my biggest investment outside of real estate is in a fund called Alaina Partners who looks for special sits in Europe and Latin America, and they're able to find, they show me the stuff they invest in. you know, airports in Chouet, trading it, you know, five to seven times cash flow. It just feels like those companies right now. I find it very hard to find value, if you will, in the U.S. market. And I think you can find a lot of value in emerging markets. So, look, the lesson is, the short answer is, I don't know.

What I'm more certain of is that diversification, I think, has never been more important. and also to think about diversifying out of the Magnetisant 10 that now represent 40% of the S&P 500. Because if you're just in an S&P index, keep in mind, 40% of that is in 10 stocks. All right. Scott Galloway, thank you. Enjoy your night. Thanks, Ed. Well, for decades, the greatest trade in the world was quite simple.

It was by America. If you did that, you were rewarded between 20,000. 10 in 2024, the S&P returned nearly 415%. Compared that to emerging markets, which, as we said, returned only 9%. It was pretty much flat. Then came Liberation Day, and investors started to wonder if the new trade was Sell America, and that is the trade we saw for a couple of weeks. Then suddenly TACO took hold, tariffs were pulled or they were cut,

and then U.S. markets ripped back up. The S&P is up more than 14% so far this year. But it appears that a new trade is emerging. And that is, yes, by America, but also by everything else. Because it's been a good run for the S&P this year, but it's been an even better run for emerging markets and for that matter for the rest of the world. You look at Japan up 20% this year.

You look at Germany's stock market, up 22% this year. You look at South Korea's stock market, up 48% this year. In fact, the MSCI World Index, the average of global stocks, that has yielded a better return this year than the S&P. So the good news for everyone is that we're all up this year. And if you buy America, you're rewarded. If you buy Europe, you're rewarded. If you buy Latin America, if you buy Asia, you are rewarded. In other words, the best investors are buying everything.

There are pretty much no bad investors in 2025. That is the great thing about a business. bull market, which we are in. But the real test will come when we see a correction, when we enter a bear market. Because at that point, investors will be forced to make a choice. It won't be a question of both and, like it has been in 2025. It will be a question of either or do I invest in America or do I go elsewhere. And that is a question we have not yet seen tested. in the AI era, and it is at that point that investors will have to make some very difficult decisions.

Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Chillon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio, and our technical director is Drew Burroughs. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I will see you tomorrow. Thank you.