Prof G Markets - Nasdaq Posts Best Day Since May as Fear & Greed Collide

Episode Date: November 25, 2025

Ed Elson is joined by Robert Armstrong, U.S. commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter, to unpack recent volatility in the markets. Then Kathryn Anne Edwards, Labor Economist and host of the Optimist Economy Podcast, returns to the show to dig into the September jobs report and what it tells us about the state of the labor market. And finally, Ed shares his takeaways from the disbanding of the Department of Government Efficiency. Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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banana to produce one positron. We have no idea what a positron actually is, but there's something about a banana joke that we find a peeler. Money markets met. If money is evil, then that building is held. Welcome with Rough U.S. markets. I'm Ed Helson. It is November 25th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rallied on optimism for a rate cut in December. The odds of a cut currently stand above 80%. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year treasuries declined, the price of gold rose,

and finally, Bitcoin clawed back from its recent lows near $80,000. Okay, what else is happening? Tech led a second day of rebounds Monday after a week of whiplash in the markets ahead of invidia's earnings last week. The S&P was on track for its worst November since 2008. Then Nvidia's earnings came out.

It calmed nerves for a moment. The entire market was lifted. The next day, however, the stock gave up all of its gains, and the rest of the market followed. And then on Friday and yesterday, stocks rallied, and the NASDAQ closed up nearly 3% for its best day since May. So we went down, then up, then up again. A lot of mixed signals coming from the market. So to help us make sense of all of this, we're speaking with Robert Armstrong, U.S. commentator for the Financial Times, author of the unhedged newsletter and fan favorite on Profugee Markets.

Rob, thank you for joining us. It's always fun to talk with you. So we want to get your reactions to just the up-down, up-down whip-sowing that we keep seeing in the markets. Obviously, things look bad, and then Nvidia reports earnings, and then things look good, and then the next day things look bad, and now apparently things are good again. What is going on? How do we make sense of this? Well, these are the kinds of days, as several of my readers have pointed out, that are designed.

to make market commentators like me look stupid, you know, it's like, you know, and the short, you know, you don't want to spend too much of your energy predicting or analyzing short-term changes in the market, but I do think the volatility is telling you something here, which is there is, it's a market in conflict with itself where strong fear is meeting with strong greed. The market is always a contest between those two emotions, but I feel like right now both emotions are very strong. In other words, there is a strong sense, and you get this when you talk to people too, that if you're not in the market right now, you're missing out on a huge opportunity. And, you know, there may be some truth to that. And we know that the market is expensive

and there are some scary things going on we don't quite understand. So it's like it's the push and pull between two opposing strong emotions, I think is the metaphor that probably captures it best. What do you make of those two arguments? I mean, both are pretty compelling to me, and that's probably why we're seeing such huge amounts of volatility. We'd had Aspartamodran, who I know you wrote about in your newsletter, who is very bearish.

But then at the same time, AI is transformative. InVinida had these great earnings. I have my gripes with that. earnings report, but, you know, there's a lot of reason to be bullish as well. I mean, where do you lab? Okay. So one thing that I've been writing about lately that is really important to keep in mind, you know, when people are making bearish talk recently, including the great Demoderin, he's talking about extremely peak evaluations. That for every dollar of present earnings, you're paying for the market, or even near-term earnings, you're paying a lot of money for each

dollar of earnings, right? That's what we mean when we say markets are expensive. And the important thing for investor to keep in mind is that over the short term, like a year or two or three years, that is not predictive information. Like I've put scatter chart charts in my newsletter, right, where you have the PE ratio on one axis and the price return on the other axis, and it's just dots all over the place over one year. It's only after five, seven, ten years that the valuation, you know, as they, you know, some people say, investing is a game you win or lose on the first tee. Yeah. In other words, if you tee off from a place where it's really expensive, you've kind of lost

the game already. That is true, but it's true over 10 years, not over one. So what's going to happen next year, valuation gives us no information. So that's one thing to keep in mind. If you're thinking as a long-term investor, maybe it is a good time to shade back, you know, like, as Aswath said, a little more cash maybe, diversify a little more, be a little more careful. But it doesn't mean we're not going to have an absolutely ripping year in stock markets over the next 12 months. So that's point number one. Point number two is, I think

the environment politically, and you and I, I don't know if we're going to agree or disagree here, but I think as a starting point, the environment politically is probably risk friendly for the very unfair but nonetheless possibly true reason that this administration is going to pull every lever they can get their hands on until the midterms. Because I was talking to, you know, a politics guy about this today. You know, the betting is they lose the House

just as a starting proposition. They lose the Senate too. Trump just is sitting in a room alone for the next two years. Yes. So whatever it takes in terms of a stimulus package, if things start to go sideways, either in markets or in the economy, we're going to see some stuff from this administration. Maybe it'll be a mistake. Maybe it's stimulus checks.

Maybe it's inflationary, whatever. They're going to give it all a try. I think the important point there, and this was part of the bull case that you laid out for 2020. You called it fiscal largesse, interventionist White House, the point. being if the government spends money, history shows us over the short term, that's good for the stock market. Sure is. Absolutely good. If they spend deficit money, in other words, if they borrow to spend, that's just cramming money into the economy, because if they tax just as much, they're pulling

the economy out. So the crucial thing is it's deficit spending. Right. And I think, I mean, we know already that some of that's coming. It was also pointed out with me today that the tax relief that is for companies and for households that is in the one big beautiful bill is retrospective to this year, which means it's going to show up in people's refund checks in March and April. That's going to be money into the economy. Now, I probably share the fears you've expressed on this show that a lot of the action in the market in particular rotates around a few themes and a few stocks. I think that's probably a legitimate worry. Yes. Is that a how you guys are feeling? Yeah, I think that that is our general concern is that we're going to see

the demand that seems to be artificially inflated. It will run out at some point. It sounds like what you're describing is that the government is going to have the ability and the incentive to keep kicking the can down the road, in which case maybe 2026, things will be good. A.I. continues to rip. But you did also lay out your bare case for 2026, where you bring out some of these issues. You've got inflation. You've gotten video stock cracks. Margin contraction, TANCO, which was interesting. Just take us through the bear case. Okay. So the bear case is, one, it becomes very politically hard for the president and his allies in Congress to do a lot of fiscal fiddling around and a lot harder for the central bank to do monetary fiddling around if

inflation comes back. I think inflation is the economic variable that I am always wrong about. And I'm even wronger than most people, which is very wrong. So I'm not going to sit here and tell you I can predict inflation. What I can tell you is the escape hatch of monetary and fiscal looseness for the market closes if we have inflation run past, say, four. Then it becomes just, you're going to pump more money into the economy when we have 4% inflation. No, they're not, you know, you're not going to get away with it. Right.

So that, then the wheels really come off. Invidia, look, companies worth $4.5 trillion, right? Like, that's a mighty big boat. If it hits an iceberg, you know. And I, you know, TANCO, the other one I mentioned, you know, I think we've done, we've been lucky as people, as investors, that the president chickens out, you know, in the taco line. Yes. Which will be written on my gravestone, whether I like it or not. Yes. For those, for those who were not aware, Robert Armstrong created the term taco.

Yeah, for Trump always chickens out. That's right. And I think you filed for a patent as well, right? Well, you know, I asked about that, but you can't, as it turns out, you can't copyrighted, short phrase, anyway, very frustrating. Yes. So, anyway, Tanko just means, like, there's always the worry that Armstrong is wrong about Trump. He's really a true believer, and he stops chickening out. Right. In other words, if he starts, if he, like, gets into a real ideologically driven trade war with China rather than a posturing war, I don't like that much.

Yeah. Right? So that's the stuff I'm worried about. I mean, it's really hard to say much of interest about what the stock market is going to do over a one-year period. But these are the things. If I had to pick the things that could go right or wrong, these are the things that I would pick.

Yes. The other thing that's been really interesting watching over the past week has been what's happening to Bitcoin, which is just barreling down every day. Yeah. What do you make of that? What does that say about sentiment? I mean, we're really just trying to assess vibes here.

That's all we can do right now. What does that say about the vice? Ed, there is an age line at which point, once you pass it, it becomes impossible for you to say something interesting about Bitcoin. And I am past that age. You are below that age. So I should be asking you what you think about this Bitcoin thing. Obviously, I mean, all I can make the obvious point only,

which is that it behaves like a highly speculative asset, All this stuff about how it's digital gold or it's a store of value or whatever. It just looks like, it trades like NASDAQ after 10 drinks, basically. Exactly. You know, I don't know what, I mean, I don't understand the thing well enough to say more about it than that. Yeah. So just before we let you go here, is there anything that you're looking at right now that you think that we should be paying more attention to? I mean, I think it's very interesting what you're saying about inflation there.

that scenario that you bring up where our backstop is federal spending or deficit spending from the government, which is only going to be even remotely acceptable if we don't have runaway inflation that gets up over 4%. It doesn't seem to indicate right now that we're not headed for that. We've been going up and up and up, 2.3 to 2.5. Now we're up to 3. I think the market's okay with 3. I think we have evidence before us that the market is okay. with three. So, but it's as we, it's the direction of change and you get up towards four and the politics of it are going to change a lot. Yeah. And, uh, I think that is, I mean, what should we be watching? I mean, I think the, the thing I always watch is when companies do well and the

Stocks don't respond that much, as was the case with NVIDIA. That tells you something. And I'm going to be watching for that pattern we saw with NVIDIA. Does it recur in the quarters to come? In other words, is absolutely everything priced in everywhere, where companies are beating or meeting targets or they're growing at the rate they've been growing and the market just doesn't care? And once that happens, it's like everybody,

what that tells me, when that's the general pattern, is that everybody who can be in the market is in the market. Yeah. And the only door that works is the exit door, because everybody is inside. Right. So that's what I'll be watching. All right. Robert Armstrong, commentator for Financial Times, author of the unhedged newsletter.

I recommend it all the time. I recommend it again today. Really great read. Robert, really appreciate it. Thank you. Anytime, Ed. After the break, a look at the latest jobs report. If you're enjoying the show, give Proffty Markets a follow.

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We're back with Profi Markets. Well, it's almost December. So naturally, we have just received the September jobs report, and it was quite mixed. Employers added 119,000 jobs, which was stronger than expected. But the unemployment rate went up to 4.4%. And that is the highest rate we have seen in four years. So some people are focusing on the unemployment rate. Others are focusing on the job growth number, including the White House, which said, quote, this strong report is more proof that President Trump's pro-growth, America First Agenda, is already making great progress. That is certainly up for debate. So we're here for a full review of this job's report and what it means for our economy. We are speaking with Catherine Ann Edwards, Labor Economist and host of

the Optimist Economy podcast. Catherine, welcome back to Profty Markets. Thank you. And we should also say that you are sort of coming out of maternity leave, coming out of, you called it semi-retirement. So thank you for that as well. We really appreciate it. We need your insight. Happy to be here. So this jobs report, we added 119,000 jobs, which was good, but there Then we also saw that the unemployment rate went up to 4.4%. That's the highest unemployment rate we've seen in four years. Give us your reactions. Give us the breakdown.

Was this good, bad, or something else? Yeah, good, bad or ugly. I think the way that I've tried to make sense of it is the labor market is cooling. It's slowing down. And every month, we're going to make maybe two steps forward, one step back, towards that cooling. So some months we add a lot of jobs, but then we'll see a heavy revision. Some months the unemployment rate stays stable. Other months like this one, we saw it jump to 4.4. You know, it's all kind of telling us the same thing, which is that we don't have a strong labor market right now. It's not robust. It's not expanding. It's not hot. We're just seeing it cool kind of at different paces according to different metrics. Maybe another way to think if it would be, you know, if you're driving a car, like the lights red. The cars are slowing down next to you at different rates,

but we're all going to come to a stop. And it's not as if there's a green light ahead and everyone's just got their foot on the gas. So it's just at what rate things slowed down and not if they're getting better. That 4.4% number, which, I mean, when you look at it on a chart and you see it's this very, very high point

compared to back in 2021, it was the last time it was that high, is that significant, you think, that it's gone up, that it's the highest we've seen in four years, at least when I look at a chart and the lines as high as it is, it looks concerning to me.

Well, the pushback would be that, historically speaking, 4.4 is pretty low and that we should, there's a little bit of a, shouldn't you be grateful for a 4.4%? You know, back in my day, we lived at 5, right? There's this, you know, historical comparison of where the U.S. unemployment rate

has lived over various points in history versus the kind of much more contemporary context of where we have been in the last five years. It's worth noting that when the unemployment rate was this high in October of 2021, it was falling. It was falling dramatically in each month as we were coming out of the pandemic. So think of this as around the fall after hot vacs summer, when we all got our vaccines in 2021.

This was the fall when like everything was reopening and stuff was coming back online. That's where we are in the unemployment right now. And in the period since, the unemployment rate fell to a record low. in the spring of 2023, it rose for about a year afterward. It's been stable for about a year, and now it's starting to increase steadily again in the last three months have seen an uptick. Now, part of me has wondered if because of the nature of the last two recessions, one being the pandemic and one being the financial crisis and associated recession, we're not used to a recession coming from a slow uptick in unemployment. We're used to the car crash.

you know, the economy falling off of a cliff. But that's not how the U.S. typically enters a downturn. It just slowly marches its way there. So, yes, you could ride off 4.4% as being historically low. But, you know, 1980 doesn't matter to what's going on in the economy right now. The unemployment rate has been rising for three months. Yeah. A lot of mixed signals in there. One thing that also stood out to me was the numbers in the manufacturing data, 6,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. That's the third straight month of falling employment in manufacturing or rising unemployment, which is just ironic because this administration was going to bring back manufacturing. And I'm sorry to point it out, but that was the whole story that we were told. That was the pitch.

And the opposite is happening. Manufacturing is getting battered, it seems. Your reactions? Tariffs are not an industrial policy. Yeah. If you want to have revitalized manufacturing the United States, you can't just put up a poster board in the Rose Garden and then clap yourself on the back and say, I did it. It's manufacturing in the 21st century economy, a global economy in which you have integrated supply trains, in which, you know, as many of things we produce inside the United States are made with parts that are imported from outside the United States. It doesn't, you know, it's not as easy as that. You have to have very thoughtful, very deliberate, and very well-designed industrial policy to revitalize manufacturing in the United States. And you've got to do it coordinated across workers, across employers, across, you know, training schools for making those workers qualified for the job. And none of that happens when you just institute a tariff. And if you look through surveys of manufacturers, Texas has one, there's a national one, they'll tell you,

here's what's going on in my business, here's what's going on in my company. And you've heard it, you know, since that April 1st Liberation Day, they are plagued with uncertainty and rising input costs. And they can't expand and hire aggressively when they don't know what their bottom line will look like month to month. And some manufacturers will make out in this situation. You are going to have some manufacturers, some parts of the manufacturing base that are doing very well right now. And you'll have a lot that are outright suffering. And then the rest that are kind of muddying their way through a lot of uncertainty, and two of those scenarios do not lead to hiring.

Yeah, the final piece that, I mean, a lot of investors like seeing these jobs numbers because it basically tells us something about what we'll see with the Fed's decision and the interest rate cut, will we get a cut, will we not get one, it appears we probably will, but we're also missing a ton of data. BLS, they canceled the October jobs report, also the October CPI report, the consumer price index, which will tell us about inflation. We're not going to get the November CPI report until the Fed has already met. We also just learned that we're not getting the first estimate of GDP data. I mean, this government shutdown has basically meant that we're getting a giant shutdown in terms of lots of data, which means that the interest rate decision for the Fed,

which investors are very interested in because it moves markets in a big way. It's not very clear what's going to happen there. I just want to get your reactions. What do you think is going to happen in terms of interest rates and what do you think of the fact that we basically are operating

with no data right now? It's a deliberate choice. Our hands are not tied. The federal government could have had emergency operations include data collection. At this time, they could have rescheduled data collection. they could have prioritized it and said this needs to come out before the Federal Reserve meets.

They could have done all of those things and they chose not to. So we are not here because of some, you know, random act that has forced us into this position. We have chosen this path from the federal government and this is where they want us to be. I think the Fed's decision, I would be surprised if they actually moved rates. With this much data uncertainty, I know that there are a lot of private data sources that have come up, But especially for the unemployment rate, the gold standard is the BLS and nothing will compare, especially for those really small numbers. Like, you know, what I thought was the most concerning part of the 4.4% unemployment rate this past month, you know, data release back in September,

was how much of it is comprised of the permanently, like permanent layoff. It's not new people coming to the labor market. It's not people coming back to the labor market or people finishing up a temporary job. a quarter of the unemployed were laid off, meaning that they lost their job due to business conditions or their firm closed due to business conditions. That's a very high share for a non-recession time period. You will not have a private sector, unemployment manufacturer, give you anything like that type of detail. That's something only the BLS can provide, but it's so important for understanding where our economy is. The administration has decided that they are not going to give us

the data we need. I think there's a chance the federal will react, but I, I would put my money on them not doing anything because without knowing how it'll impact the economy, it's risky to move in either direction, so they'll hold still. This Fed, in particular, has shown that they like to err on the side of not moving too quickly. That's been used to condemn them. That's been used to praise them. But if that is their mode of behavior, I would be surprised if they did something in December. Catherine, Ad Edwards, a host of the Optimist Economy podcast, Catherine, really appreciate your time. Thank you.

Thank you so much, and y'all have a good Thanksgiving. It's official. The Department of Government Efficiency is no more. The agency has reportedly disbanded eight months short of its original mandate. Scott Kupor, the Office of Personnel Management's Director confirmed this news. He said after being asked about Doge, quote, that doesn't exist. All told, Doge lasted about 10 months, according to their website, the Department terminated roughly 13,000 contracts, 16,000 grants, and 300 leases, although these numbers have fluctuated a lot in the past few months. All in all, the agency estimates its efforts save the American taxpayer about $200 billion. However, we should also note that Doge has also cost the US quite a bit

as well. There's the estimated $10 billion we lost in productivity because of cuts at the NIH and the NSF, there's the $135 billion that we lost because the government fired a bunch of workers by mistake, and now they're going to have to rehire them. And then there's the $500 billion in tax revenue that we lost because of cuts to the IRS. In sum, Doge will end up actually being a net loss. Yes, we pinched a few billions here and there, but ultimately we bled a few more billions over the long run. And when we look back, I think we will all agree that this was a giant waste of money. But that's only when we measure Doge by the dollars that went into it. It says nothing of the time and the energy and the attention that was wasted on Doge, starting from that

original tweet that established Doge and got hundreds of millions of views and was retweeted hundreds of thousands of times, or even the thousands of memes about Doge that was strewn across every social media platform by Elon and by the president himself. And all of the general chaos, both online and in the real world that was fomented because of this movement, which really disguised itself as some form of fiscal responsibility, but was in reality all about controversy and all about sticking it to this woke establishment. Few political movements in history have gotten more attention and had less impact than Doche. It sucked up all the energy in the room for many, many months, and yet here we are, it got us no.

nowhere. And remember what Elon said about Doge. He said that Doge was going to save us $2 trillion. That is what he told us. How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted $6.5 trillion dollar Harris Biden budget? Well, I think we could do at least two trillion. Yeah! Yes. At least two trillion. That's what he said. In just a few months, instead of that, we have actually added roughly two trillion dollars to our national debt. And that doesn't even include

the big, beautiful bill, which is going to add another four trillion dollars to our national debt. So if we're evaluating his performance here, Elon's performance, I think it is fair to say that Elon Musk was the least effective political leader in modern history. Not only did he not accomplish his goal, he actually achieved the opposite. He increased our debt by the amount that he said he was going to cut. He increased government waste, and he pissed off millions of people on both sides while he did it. But now it's over. Doge is dead. That's the end of it. And it's a reminder of a larger flaw with this administration. And that is, like Doge, they are almost always all talk and no action. Whether it's these deals with nations that never

actually materialize or government agencies that make a huge fuss and then quietly shut down. are really good at making headlines that go viral and really bad at getting any of it done. And the result is actually worse, weirdly, than doing nothing. Because at least if you do nothing, then the people, we can just kind of go about our lives and find other things to worry about. But when you actively create drama, when you actively sow division, when you cause unrest through these performative acts of cruelty all while getting nothing done. Well, that is something different entirely. That's something much worse. And Doge was a great example of this. Now, to be clear, when history is written, when it's all said and done,

Doge will be completely forgotten. It was an inconsequential agency that got nothing done. No one will recognize the name Doge. No one will know what it was. No one will remember it. But I will remember it. And I hope you do too, because it's movements like Doge that slowly but surely ruin America. It's movements like Doge that we need to prevent, movements that are void of substance, that are rooted in grievance, that are driven by some weird online need for attention, and that most importantly, do nothing for anyone. Doge is what it means to be inefficient. Doge is waste in its purest form. It is a blueprint for how not to run government. It might have lived a ceremonious life.

It might have gotten a lot of attention in its day. But as with all bad leaders, it died an unceremonious death. It was quietly buried away in the annals of history, and it will be forgotten. But for those of us who care about America, who care about government, who care about the systems that run our government. For those people, let's be clear. Doge must be remembered. Okay, that's it for today.

This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Chalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio. And our technical director is Drew Burroughs. Thank you for listening to ProfG Markets from Profugee Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow.

I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow. Today is D.B. Cooper Day, which is one of my favorite days of the year. So, like, in 1973, this guy who was not named D.B. Cooper, but that's his name, he put on the passenger list when he signed on. kidnapped a plane in Seattle, like hijacked this plane. And he said, you know, we're going to land in, I think it was Spokane, and you're going to give me a million dollars because I have a bomb. And he had something that looked like a bomb,

which later turned out not to be a bomb. And so they landed in Spokane or whatever. You can look all this up. I'm getting some of the details wrong. And they give him the million dollars. And he's like, okay, take the plane off again. And they're flying over the forest over there at Oregon. And what he has in his other bag is a parachute, and he takes his million dollars,

puts on his parachute, and jumps out of the plane into the night on the 24th, November, 1974, or whatever. Never heard of again. Wow. So, D.B. Cooper, as his name might be, is like the patron saint of people who are trying to get away with it. You know what I mean? And today is D.B. Cooper Day.

Anyway, there's like songs about D.B. Cooper and, you know, I love it because the takeaway is so bad. Yeah. Terrible moral. Terrible moral. The worst fable of all time. Yeah. If you're tired of database limitations and architectures that break when you scale,

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Support for this show comes from Volkswagen. As the U.S. gets ready to host soccer's biggest moment on a worldwide stage, Volkswagen is helping people discover new turfs and new ways to play the beautiful game right here in the U.S. From deaf and power wheelchair soccer to beach and futsal, Volkswagen is actively supporting all the communities and teams within the U.S. soccer ecosystem.

They're supporting talent from across the U.S. soccer extended national teams and are focused on helping to give these less widely known forms of soccer a platform moving forward. From the pitch to the sand and everything in between, welcome to our turf.

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