Prof G Markets - Trump Wins — ft. Anthony Scaramucci

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Scott and Ed open the show with the market’s reaction to the election, and share their initial feelings about the outcome as well. Then Anthony Scaramucci returns to the show to identify what promises Trump will or won't keep, share what he thinks about Elon’s role in the campaign, and predict who will be in Trump’s cabinet. He also offers his thoughts on the betting markets and what will happen to Donald Trump Media stock.  Check out Prof G Markets in Spanish and Portuguese on Youtube.  Order "The Algebra of Wealth," out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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active investment managers. Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Today's number, $15.9 billion. That's the estimated record amount spent on this U.S. federal loan. I could give a shit, you fucking idiots. What the fuck? What the actual fuck? Welcome to Prop G Markets. Today, we're speaking with Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital.

But first, here with the news is Prop G analyst Ed Elson, who's about to incur the largest tax increase in history on young people with runaway deficits and an inflationary fiscal policy, and most likely will knock up some young lady who will have to carry the baby to term and be impoverished and lose any sense of empathy for special interest groups and move to fucking Costa Rica. I don't know. I'd say something to cheer me up, Ed. I don't have much to cheer you up this morning, Scott, but I'll just get straight into the headlines here. So Donald Trump has won the election, and here's how the markets reacted.

Bitcoin hit a record high of more than $75,000 on election night. Trump media stocks soared around 30% pre-market the next day, and Tesla jumped 15%. Treasury yields rose, pointing towards a larger deficit and higher inflation under Trump's second term. The dollar hit its highest level in a year, as his proposed tariffs would imply a stronger currency. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan and the euro fell sharply, and the Mexican peso dropped to a two-year low. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened 2% higher Wednesday morning. Scott, your reactions to this election result? So I got a call last night, or I got a text from a guy who's

one of the brightest guys I've met recently. He's the CIO of Millennium, and he runs, I think they're about a $70 billion alternative investment fund, manages all these. They have an interesting model. They manage hundreds of little trading teams that try and find dislocation in the market and tons of data and quant trading. I mean, these are serious people. And he was the first person that texted me. I have a lot of people, quote unquote, in the field. And every one of my friends in the field was early that, oh, things are looking really good. We're out in the field knocking on doors. All we see is blue and good vibes. And they talked me into thinking it was going to be

the size of victory. He was the first person to text me. He said, it's over. Trump's won. And I'm like, well, how do you know? I mean, this is pretty fairly early in the evening. It's like, look at the tenure. And the tenure was moving up because of inflationary fears with a Trump back in office. But he was the first person who actually came out of the... None of us wanted to say it. We're all texting and WhatsAppping each other. Nobody wanted to say what we were all feeling. I went on the Amazon program last night with Brian Williams, and it got really late, really early last night. When they started doing all this great data around, okay, this is what Biden got in this county in 2020. I'm like, oh, she's not doing as well as Biden did in 2020. That's not good. And by the way, this is what Trump got in 2016, and he's got much more now. I mean, just every signal was it's going Trump. And also the polymarket and all these other guys that looked ridiculous to me, because we said, I thought it was a coin flip. all the data, all the pollsters said it was a coin flip. And they said, no, it's not. It's two to one. By fairly early in the evening, Polymarket was at 90-10. Like 10 to one when it's still, when you had every person on MSNBC

and CNN and on Amazon saying, well, she can still pull it off. She just needs to get her number slightly, but there's still a path to victory for her. There's still a visible path to victory. And it was just, it was striking to me. The other, the market's reaction around crypto, stocks, I guess that's not surprising. I believe the market, what the market is sort of saying is that we'll see some inflation in the short run or fears of inflation. We'll see some stimulus in terms of tax cuts. And we might not be. My understanding is, as we sit here today, the Senate, the White House, and possibly the House might go all Republican. But my belief is the market is basically saying that the president who's in the White House is less important than people think. I think it'll be very interesting to see what happens. I've been

thinking about Donald Trump's stock a lot because I wonder if, I mean, basically it became a vessel, a predictions machine. Now that he's won, it's no longer a predictions machine. But I wonder if the stock ends up going, and this is confirmation bias because I shorted it, but I wonder if it ends up going way down because now it's like, it's no longer a prediction machine what is it and unless he can figure out a way to convince his buddies to go in and prop it up so he can sell or he can figure out a way to get funnel government contracts to a social media platform which i think would be real gymnastics you know i just wonder what's going to happen i'm kind of fascinated fascinated by this weird thing that we haven't seen before. What are your thoughts, Ed? I think you're right. This is certainly an argument in

favor of the predictive power of markets. And this was something that we've been debating for a long time. I don't think it puts a nail in the coffin per se that polls are wrong or that they're significantly worse than markets, but it certainly is an argument in favor of them. My reactions to the election itself. So everything I've been reading and listening to has been what the Democrats got wrong. My feeling is that over the next few months, this is all we're going to be hearing about. We're just going to be Monday morning quarterbacking what the Democratic Party should have done, how they've lost the script.

It's all a bit boring and played out in my view, and it's a little bit of a waste of time. So the only thing I do want to talk about is just how I'm feeling right now. You know, we try to keep politics out of this show, but markets are driven by emotion. And I think how I'm just feeling is maybe worth something, if anything. What I'm feeling right now is basically just a mixture of sadness and depression. Two main reasons. One is, and this is more the depression, I was just excited to have a woman president i just think it's time i find it very strange that we've never had one um i'm a

little bit tired of the fact that we've never had one and what's clear to me this morning is that this country still isn't ready for that we still think that a woman couldn't handle the job. And the most depressing part to me is the fact that 46% of women voted for him. And we can get into why that is with Anthony. The second reason, and this is sort of my sadness and also my depression. So I'm 25 years old. I was 16 years old when Trump first announced his candidacy. By the time his term is up, I will be 29 years old, which means that by 2028, I will have spent more than half of my life

thinking about this person every single day. And the reality is, I just don't want to think about this guy anymore. I'm just tired of thinking about him and I'm tired of other people thinking about him. I'm tired of him showing up in every single conversation I have with friends and with family. And the reality is that there are just so many other things in life

that are so much more important and so much more interesting and that deserve so much more attention than Donald Trump. This is my sadness right now. And my goal for the next four years and with this podcast is to think about him as little as possible. We're going to think about him today. We're going to talk about him with Anthony.

We sort of have to. It's important. This day is important. But my goal is to basically just live my own life, to have my own ideas, to be fascinated by different stories, create my own stories, and to not let the incessant noise of this man's existence

distract me from what actually matters in life. So that's what I'm focused on. And my promise to our listeners today is that I will make sure that this does not become the Donald Trump show. This isn't going to be complaining about Donald Trump, talking about his emotions, what he's talking about, you know, talking about other people's opinions of him. We're going to try to be objective about what's going to happen over the next four years. And we're not going to let Donald Trump distract us from what actually matters.

We're going to focus on bringing you stories that are important and that are objective about the reality. So, Ed, I understand how you feel. My advice would be the following. I think you're right about getting on with your life, focus on your career, focus on your relationship with your girlfriend, your relationship with your parents, building economic security, being great at what you do, working out, and just create, you know, have a practice of being focused on what's important. Also, what's helped me a lot, and I wish I'd understood this when I was younger, life isn't about what happens to you. It's about how you respond to what happens to you. This is going to be probably a rough four years or even longer based on Supreme Court appointments if you're a poor woman of color who gets pregnant.

I mean, there's just no getting around it. There are going to be big losers here. you live in a country that has got more opportunity and a greater likelihood you have the agency to right the ship if you think it needs writing than anywhere in the world. Stay with us. Support for the show comes from ZBiotics. Thank you. world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PHE scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. And according to Z-Biotics, here's how it works. When you drink,

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So I had all these questions prepared about, you know, last night, whether it would be a Trump or a Harris presidency and all these things I wanted to get into, but I'm suddenly feeling like it's all a little bit pointless in a way. So I just want to start with just how are you feeling this morning? You've been covering this for a while. You've worked with Trump. You've been vocal against Trump over the past several years. How are you feeling? Well, listen, I think you have to take an approach to this

the way an athlete would take an approach. I feel like the New York Yankees, after they were defeated by the L.A. Dodgers, let's just go over the math here because I think it's very important. America wanted Donald Trump to return to the White House. Given the two choices of Vice President Harris or Donald Trump, America wanted it. Trump did something that they said he couldn't do. And frankly, I said he couldn't do. And so just like in sports, when things are not going your way and you get trounced, you have to own it and you have to wish the other side well. He is the American president now or the president elect, I should say. And so I congratulated him last night. It was an incredibly well executed campaign. He won the popular vote and he closed margins in typically blue states. I'll just give you one example. Up here in New York, he gained votes. They gained congressional seats. And in New Jersey, he was inside of five points,

which was almost at the margin of error in a voting poll. So to me, how am I feeling right now? I'm not going to pretend otherwise. I'm sad for the country. I'm happy for my portfolio. Obviously, you're a stock market participant or a Bitcoin owner like me. You've done very well in the last 24 hours. But I just know that the rhetoric that was used in this campaign, if it is executed in the White House and the dehumanization rhetoric to non-white immigrants, if that's somehow executed in the White House and these deportations actually happen the way they're talking about, that would be a hammer blow to our culture. That would be a hammer blow to our society. It would impair our tax revenues. It would reduce our GDP. And I'll tell you guys something. I'd like to ask you both of your reactions to this because when I looked at the cross tabs, I looked at the numbers. I have someone that's worked for my family for 20 years.

She said to me, well, you know, I voted for him. I said, I know you did. Why did you vote for him? I voted for him because I'm from Ecuador. I'm here legally. I'm in the club. Okay, he's going to protect me from the people that are illegal. Did you see that?

So he picked up Latin American votes. He picked up African American votes because he was suggesting to those people that they were part of his club. Now, they are part of his club until they're not. And that's the capricious nature of Donald Trump. But it was masterful, guys. It was masterful in terms of what the narrative was. I just don't like it

because I'm from a family of immigrants. My grandparents were told to go back, go back to the country you originally came from. When they got here, there was heavy discrimination. And while our group has assimilated, there are other groups that we would like to see assimilate in this great, great country. The other group you didnilated, there are other groups that we would like to see assimilate in this great, great country. The other group you didn't mention there are women.

46% of women voted for him. They came out in even greater numbers. I'd love to just get your reaction to women's response to Donald Trump in this election. Well, you know, I'll go because I went through the exit toll. You know, last night I broadcast live for eight hours into the United Kingdom. Our Goalhanger podcast last night had 1.8 million viewers throughout the streaming session. And going over that exit polling, the women are saying they do not like the culture war. The women are saying they don't want men or people that have outdoor plumbing fixtures

to declare themselves as women and to go play sports against their daughters or their sisters. That's what the women are saying. The women are saying that they don't like the, you know, if I use the word, it explodes people's heads on the left, but I'm going to use it here. They don't like the woke. They don't like the woke culture. You know, Professor Galloway talks about this. There's a hit on white males right now.

As the professor points out, the younger white males have a proclivity towards higher suicide rates. They feel left out of the society. The women that want to support them are voting for Donald Trump. You know, it's interesting. There was a great meme yesterday where it was a little daughter and it said, you know, Daddy, who are you voting for? And he said, I'm voting for you, honey, meaning her reproductive rights or reproductive freedoms. But the inverse actually happened. It was mommy, mommy, who are you voting for? And mommy was looking over at her son and saying, you know what, I'm voting for you. Okay. And that's a very interesting thing that happened. I don't think the left anticipated that,

but that happened. And they have to have a reckoning and a reconciliation related to that. Bears repeating, Anthony, I really appreciate you taking the time to speak with us the day after. I can't imagine how many people want you on their media platforms right now. I see kind of one or two things here. This is either somewhat of a mandate he's been given that says, okay, the norms since World War II are no longer the norms. A different view on immigration, foreign policy, economic policy, the rights of special interest groups, just economic – we are not about change. We're about disruption. And this is not an aberration. He's been voted back in through a democratic process. Is it that America has decided for a seminal shift in the way we approach constitutional democracy and all the things I previously mentioned? Or was it that the

Harris campaign, for a variety of reasons, just ran such a terrible campaign? Your thoughts? Well, I think it's an intersection of all those things. I just was going to point out the reason why you guys are so popular and you have media personalities now is that this is the age of the podcast. And that campaign was the podcast campaign. You know, there was a Twitter campaign, guys, in 2008. Or maybe there was a Facebook campaign in 2008, a Twitter campaign in 12, Twitter campaign in 16. But this was the podcast campaign. The old media is no longer trusted by this country. The suits are no longer trusted. You know, Scott and I are old enough to remember a book that was written by David Halberstam called The Powers

That Be. It was written in the 70s about the great David Sarnoff, who created RCA and became NBC, and Bill Paley, and how CBS became the gold standard in the news. And this was very centralized, and they were somewhat coordinated with the government. And whether people like this or not, they were all tied into the military. You know, the U.S. benefited from millions and millions of men and women being in the American military, taking oaths to the Constitution, working together from different parts of the country. And then after the war, there was a sort of rectitude and a process that was followed. That part of America is now completely over. The Vietnam bone spur deferment is the process now, and he's brought

that culture with him. So it's a rules breaking. It's a norm breaking. My wife's going to be mad at me because she's going to listen to this podcast, but she called me this morning and said, well, I've got two sons with you, Anthony. We have four sons in total, but misogyny was on the ballot, racism was on that ballot, and a lot of people held their nose. I'm not saying the people that voted for Donald Trump are misogynist or racist, but they did accept his racism, and they did accept his misogyny, okay? And so, you have to look at that now, You have to look at that in the mirror and say, has America really changed? And Scott, I believe, Ed, I believe it has.

I believe that the man in the gray flannel suit, I believe the system that was put in place after the Second World War to help the world, to raise living standards, I believe America's now looking at all that and saying, hey, what is in it for me? And to quote Elon Musk, okay, and this is a book that Scott and you guys are probably familiar with. It's The Sovereign Individual. It was written by Riesemann and Davidson in 1999. It was the second book of theirs. Peter Thiel repackaged it and wrote an introduction to it. And it's about

what's in it for you. And it's a de-collection of the society. And I will tell you guys, if you're a student of history, when we de-collect as opposed to conjoin and collect, create a collective, very bad things have happened in our system. Very, very bad things. At the end of the Second World War, the devastation of that war, the Europeans wanted to unify. They created the European Economic Union. The memories of all this stuff is over now. There's a bellicosity of rhetoric. There's a rise of nationalism. There are separatist movements everywhere around the world. And last but not least, because of the fragmentation in social media, our adversaries are in the process with us now. And they're trying to rile us up and trying to create lots of tribalism. And Donald Trump was the perfect medium for that. And so, you know, he won it and he won it in a way that you didn't expect, Scott. I have to confess, I did not expect. Okay. But he did win it. And so if you're an entrepreneur listening to this, if you're a political entrepreneur listening to this and you don't like the direction that this is going in, think like an entrepreneur. How do you get the 104 million people that didn't vote last night or didn't vote in this process that are eligible to vote? How do you get them involved? How do you go from zero to

one with them in terms of messaging, narration, explanation of history, what works from a sociological perspective for people versus what doesn't work? And it'll be interesting to see. But if Trump executes his plan, if you don't mind, I just want to go over the plan. The plan is to deport 15 million people. First of all, it's sort of not possible. We don't have the infrastructure for it. But let's say he deports 1.8 million people, which is the prison population of this country. It's an $88 billion load for the taxpayer. Okay. You then have to collect these people in armored vehicles, and then you have to concentrate them in camps or

otherwise known as concentration camps because you can't immediately deport them. You've got to find a way station for them to go to because there is a process on the other side to get them out of the country. This will blow up GDP. It'll crush the economy. Musk is out saying, you know, we're going to execute these plans. There's going to be three or four ugly, dark economic years. I don't think the Americans fully understand what they've signed up for should Trump try to execute that plan. He's got good parts of that Congress with him. And so it's a dangerous time for people that have grown up in America where there were certain norms that we accepted with each other. Don't necessarily have to love each other or even like each other, but we're here

together in this great experiment and there's aspirational opportunity for each of us if we stick together. These people are saying something very, very different. It's us versus them. If you're with me, I've got you protected. Just do me a favor. Don't write an endorsement against my adversary. You can keep your, for my adversary, you can keep your government contracts. I'm a very transactional guy. How am I going to transact with people that benefits me as opposed to what is in the best interest of the ideals and vision of a future America? So I agree with everything you just said in terms of what would happen if his policies or how things would unfold in the markets if his policies were implemented. But it appears the markets either A, don't believe that would be

the outcome, or B, don't believe this is going to happen. What do you think, who do you think the biggest winners and losers are in terms of companies and the markets and asset classes in a Trump presidency? Well, the oil and gas industry is a big winner, I believe. Obviously, Bitcoin is a big winner, Scott. You know, I try to tell these guys on the Democratic side, you're making a mistake in terms of the way you're regulating and thinking about the world of digital assets. You know, Sherrod Brown, for those of you that don't know who he is, he was a senior person in the Senate. He was the chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Okay. He was ousted by a car entrepreneur that was given over $40 million from the crypto lobbying community

to Al Sherrod Brown because of his antiquated thinking about crypto. And so Trump will definitely put people in position. He's talking about a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, using Bitcoin. I think other countries would have to do that. It would be very positive for crypto assets in general. I think banks do well in this environment because you mentioned the 10-year going up. They'll have more float, Scott. They'll make more money, okay? And he's going to pick and choose. You know, he's going to pick and choose.

So oligarchs that are with him, their companies are fine. Amazon is not going to get broken up. SpaceX is going to flourish under Donald Trump. Tesla will flourish under Donald Trump. And so the market looks at all this stuff. They're like, yeah, this works for me. I'm long the market. Let's go. But there are things that could create complications for the market. If he decides to pull out of the Ukraine and he decides to partition the Ukraine and give it to his friend Vladimir Putin and he replaces a democratic regime in Ukraine with a Soviet-style puppet there, I think that's going to have monumental consequences in Eastern Europe. There is a reason. Podcast listeners, pay attention.

There's a reason why Finland and Sweden, 74 years of NATO, they don't want to be part of NATO. And its 75th year, they're like, hey, guys, we need to be part of NATO. Okay, Vladimir Putin is flexing. Now, he has a small economy. It's roughly the size of Texas. But he's got a heavy nationalistic military interest on expansion. And if he starts to do that, it will wreak havoc in the market. So when I say for now, sure, I understand why people are bullish, deregulation, you know, and Donald Trump is

just kidding. Scott, I've been traveling the country. As you know, I do a lot of public speaking. I did three live shows here in the United States, and I did seven of them in the country. As you know, I do a lot of public speaking. I did three live shows here in the United States, and I did seven of them in the UK. I asked the following questions of thousands of people. Does Trump mean what he says? Is he going to do what he says? Or is Trump just saying that the bellicosity of his rhetoric is nonsense? He's not going to follow through on it. It's 80-20 universally. 80-20 that he does not mean what he says, okay? And this is the most interesting time in the world where we have a presidential candidate that is promising to do something. His supporters have voted for him. And in the exit polling, they say, yeah, he doesn't really mean what he says. He's not going

to do that. The market does not believe he's going to do that. But I submit to you guys, if he does 15% of what he says, he's going to damage this system that has made so many people prosperous. Are we in need of tweaking the system? We certainly are. Are we in need of making the system better? No question. But to bring down the system and to change the world order, okay, at a time like this where 5.7 billion people live under forms of autocracy around the world, I think it's very dangerous for markets. You know, people take for granted free shipping lanes sponsored by the U.S. Navy until they no longer exist, guys. And then all of a sudden the cost of goods and services and importation, exportation go through the roof and people are scratching their heads and politics, guys, is a placard that's held up by Trump supporters or Tea Party people. Get your government hands off my Medicaid, off my Medicare. And then you go to the person, excuse me, that's a government program. Trump understands something about his supporters that everyone needs to understand. They are social conservatives.

They want a job in your bedroom. They want to oversee what you're doing in your bedroom. And if you're a woman, they certainly want to have some control over your uterus. OK, but they are fiscally liberal. They want the government services. They want the transfer payments from the government. And Trump understands that better than anybody, which is why he had an $8 trillion print in four years of deficit spending.

And again, just so people understand that, that's George Washington to George W. Bush, $7 trillion. Donald J. Trump, four years, $8 trillion. And what are we doing on the spending, guys? No, we're going to ramp up the spending. We're ready to rock and roll with the spending. And I guess people think it's going to be okay. And maybe they'll be right, and I will be wrong. It's certainly going to be right in the short term. But are they going to be right in the long term? And that's the thing. This stuff usually ends in tears when you're moving towards individualism and you're moving towards a more transactional, less holistic society. Yeah, I was just going to ask about

the deficit because I think that's one of the main reasons we've seen so many voters basically look past his character because in their view, they think that he's going to reduce wasteful spending. You know, he's going to bring in Elon. He's going to create the Department of Government Efficiency. He's going to gut all of this wasteful spending that we see in government, which is another way of saying he's going to reduce the federal deficit. If you look back at his past presidency, the evidence would say, no, he won't. So could you speak more to why you believe, it sounds like you believe pretty categorically

he is going to run up the deficit even more. Could you just take us through why you believe that? Remember, the last rhetoric was, I'm going to balance the budget. 2016, I'm running. I'm going to balance the budget in four years. Okay, so, you know, what, what, what the great thing about Trump, he's a human kaleidoscope. You look through the lens,

you see what you want to see. If you don't like what you see, you turn the aperture slightly and a new pattern forms. He said, okay, I like that better. So Trump says so many different things. If you're supporting him, you pick the things that he says that you like. And if you're denouncing him, you pick the things that he doesn't like. But he says so many things. At one point, he's saying they're very fine people on both sides of a Nazi rally. The very next day, he denounces it. There's one group saying, well, he said this. The other group saying he said that. And so you have to understand he's not going to be able to do that. Number one, Elon Musk is not going to work for the government. He's not selling SpaceX. He's not selling Tesla to install himself into the government. Number two, you cannot cut $2 trillion from the federal government. I'm sure there's overspending. I'm sure there's excess in the government. But you can't go into a massive austerity program to that magnitude.

Unless you want to get rid of the military, yeah. You can't take 6% to 8% of the GDP, okay, and not put it to work. You'll crush the economy. And when you crush the economy, you're going to throw people out of work, and you're going to create rebellious dissension in a society. Trump is not a stupid person. He's not going to do that. Okay. Moreover, you don't want him to do that. You know, the Brits would tell you they've had 14 years of austerity. It doesn't work. What works is entrepreneurship, aspirational laboratories around a society, grow your economy. What works is you're at the end of World War II, you're 125% debt to GDP, and you're not paying it back, but you're growing the GDP

so exponentially that the debt is actually manageable by your taxpayers and manageable by the system that you set up. And so we have to focus more on that. And I'll tell you guys, whether you like it or not, you need population influx. You don't need depopulation in this country. We need more workers. We need more people in the country. The great irony of what Donald Trump is suggesting, I'm going to deport 10 million people. Oh, by the way, do you know if you naturalize those people, they're not all voting blue like Elon Musk says. Many of these people are traditional families and Roman Catholics that have elements of

conservatism in their personalities. Guess what happens to these people, guys? They vote like every other American. Some of them are going to vote red. Some of them are going to vote blue. You know, you can't make, they make these very simplistic blanket statements about large groups of people to engender xenophobia and to trigger people to turn on their neighbor. Okay. I don't want to turn on my neighbor. Okay. I want my neighbor to have a nice Okay. I want my neighbor to have a

nice house. I want my neighbor's family to do well. I want my neighbor to feel good about themselves. Okay. That's the spirit of America. That's the America that we grew up in. That's the America that we should figure out a way to expand upon. I don't want to, Hey, you know, it's us versus them. We're here. You're not. Let's lower the gate now. Okay. That's not the America that got started a couple hundred years ago. And that's not the America that we grew up in. You mentioned you don't think Elon will be part of this government. I was going to ask that question. Why do you think he won't be? Well, he's got too many conflicts of interest. I mean, listen, if we're going to break every norm and break every rule, and we're going to let Elon Musk be a

government official and run multiple billion dollar, trillion-ish dollar companies, okay, that's going to be in its own way a path towards a very weird oligarchy in this country. Okay, I don't think- But isn't that exactly the plan? That sounds exactly where we're headed now. Look, if that's the plan, there will be people like me, I'll probably get thrown out of the country for exercising my free speech rights and denouncing that and explaining to people how dangerous that is.

Because when you move towards strongman leadership and you move towards autocratic thinking, a lot of people at the top get very, very rich, but the rest of the people get devastated because cronyism and the ideas of quid pro quo exchanges come into play. You know, imagine a Jimmy Carter set up that way or a George Herbert Walker Bush,

or a Bill Clinton. Okay, like or dislike any of the politicians I just mentioned, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, they all looked at the country and said, okay, I'm here to serve the country, and I'm here to work inside the norms of the system because this system has been grounded with experimentation over hundreds of years. It may not be perfect. It may not work perfectly, but it works for the most amount of people. There's a reason why this is the most prosperous nation in the world. There's a reason why we have great intellectual capital in this country and great innovation. We have a very flat, decentralized government. Rich, smart people don't get it right on everything. I don't want Bill Ackman operating on my brain. I know he's worth more money than me. And I know as a result of

that, he may think he's smarter than me and he may think he's smarter than everybody on planet Earth, but he also may not be. Okay, Scott Galloway may be smarter than him in so many different ways. And you too, Ed. And so my point is we got to take a step back and recognize that the system that we put in place, there is wisdom in crowds. What did Lincoln say about the American people? Okay, you say they're not smart. I say that they have a good nose. They can smell

a rotting cadaver in their basement. Now, the question is, why did they make this decision last night? And I think the Democrats have to sit around and ask themselves that question. On the exit polling, guys, last night, number two was threat to democracy. 60% of the people thought that the Democrats were the threat to the democracy. Democrats are saying Trump's the threat to democracy. Elon said they're the threat to the democracy. He used his $44 billion megaphone to tell the people that. Okay. And now maybe neither of them are a threat to democracy. I don't know. Okay, but I want the framing of that constitution, the three separate articles, and I want that system to be refined and improved, certainly, but I don't want it to be crushed. I know that that is a good framework for us to become prosperous, more prosperous, and

more deeply prosperous, where more men and women in the society can partake in the wealth and success of the United States. We'll be right back. But first, we want to remind you that we have even more election coverage on our Raging Moderates podcast, co-hosted with Jessica Tarloff from Fox. You can find Raging Moderates wherever you get your podcasts. to try new things, and it's never too late to reinvent yourself. The all-new Reimagined Nissan Kicks is the city-sized crossover vehicle that's been completely revamped for urban adventure. From the design and styling to the performance, all the way to features like the Bose Personal Plus sound system, you can get closer to everything you love about city life in the all-new, reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at www.nissanusa.com

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Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results.

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Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. Constantcontact.ca. We're back with Profiteer Markets. Anthony, you were in the administration. You know the people around him. Who from kind of the old school gets brought back in, and who are some new people he'll probably bring in? Who are going to be the old and the new power players? And how will the overall complexion change of the people of his team? So you'll not be amazed by this, Scott. After the insurrection on the 7th, many people denounced Donald Trump, 7th of January,

2021. Those very people are on stage with him last night. Remember, J.D. Vance called him the American Hitler, and he's his vice president. So you'll be impressed with the way people will pirouette for Donald Trump. So Gary Cohen, I believe, will be back. I think Jared Kushner may have a role, although it might not be inside the White House, but it'll probably be some advisory role, ambassadorial role to the Middle East, something that will help him with his businesses. You'll have Howard Lutnick. I don't know if you know Howard Scott, but he's the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. He's the head of the transition team. Linda McMahon. Linda did a great job with the Small Business Administration. I suspect she'll be the

Commerce Secretary. I'm not sure who will be the Treasury Secretary, but if I was guessing, it would be Scott Besant. He's a hedge fund manager that formerly worked for George Soros, a very, very smart, very capable guy. Jamie Dimon, any chance? So I don't know. I don't know if Trump would enlist Jamie or not. I don't know if Jamie would want the job. There was thoughts about Jamie wanting that job in 16, but Trump felt compelled to give it to Steve Mnuchin because Mnuchin was with him. And I thought Stephen did a very good job at Treasury. But there will be a collection of old people and new people. Trump is very good at what I call the Donald Trump carousel. You come in, you're waving to the crowd, you're with Trump, he hands you the MAGA hat, you're smiling, and as you go by him,

he plunges the knife in your back, and then the next guy shows up, and he does the same thing to that guy, and then the next guy shows up. He has been masterful at always finding opportunistically people that are willing to help him. He was sending out tweets in 18 and 19 that Elon Musk should have been on his knees barking like a dog in the Oval Office, baying to me. And now they're both buds and they're cavorting around together. Okay. All of those relationships will end in tears. J.D. Vance right now is flying high. I'm going to be the sitting vice president. But the price you paid is you put your entire head inside the mouth of a lion.

Okay. And he's going to end up just like Mike Pence did. Hopefully you guys will invite me on and I'll say, hey, I gave you the heads up. Vance's career is ruined. It's finished. He doesn't know it. He sees himself as a future president. He sees himself as the successor of MAGA, but it doesn't work like that with Trump because any type of attention you're getting that's taking away from Trump, you go into the Donald Trump wood chipper. It's just the way it works. And so, and again, if you don't believe me, you know, you guys are analysts and

research people, just go over the legions of people that he has done this to. There is a reason why 45 of us who work for him were trying to warn people of what his capabilities are. One of the things that was quite unique about this election was it was the first one where we could bet on this legally. You know, we've seen all these new prediction markets. We've seen CalShee and PolyMarket predicted. I'd love to just get your overall view on these markets. Has there been a positive effect from these markets, a negative effect? And do you think that they should remain legal? So I think they should remain legal. I think there is a free market. I think ultimately those prediction markets were correct. You have to accept that maybe some of

them were thinly traded like polymarket and they could have been unduly influenced, but I don't think it was too dramatic. I would just like them more regulated. I would like people to basically be able to bet in those markets. Remember, the original standing of the SEC, it wasn't a political instrument of power for a party or a politician. What Roosevelt wanted, and there's a great book on this, Susana Henriquez wrote a book called Taming the Street, and it's a history of the early part of the SEC. What we were trying to do is just make the capital market safer in the country. It was very apolitical.

It was what is the right policy to make it safer versus what's the wrong policy. It wasn't left or right. Gary Gensler, the worst SEC chairman in the history, the 90-year history of the SEC, him and Elizabeth Warren came in there and weaponized the SEC, okay? And so I would like to go back to an apolitical standard for that instrument. Now, somebody like Jay Clayton, I don't know if you guys recognize that name. He was Trump's SEC chairman. I helped him get that job when I was on the transition committee. He's a former Sullivan and Cromwell partner. He's raised his hand. He's willing to go back to work for Donald Trump. He's not a political person. He's more of a policy servant. And I would like to have more people like that in the government. And in that case, Ed, those markets should fall under that jurisdiction and just make sure that those markets are as wide and deep as possible so that they can't be unduly manipulated. But I would certainly

want those markets to exist. Yeah. I just had the founder of Calci on this podcast and he revealed to me that they regulate themselves at the moment. That's how it works, which is unbelievable. Well, yeah, because they can't get any clarity from our regulatory. There are regulatory authorities right now want to regulate through enforcement. So the reason why the market's up 1,200 points is the market's looking around and saying, okay, if Trump reappoints Jay Clayton, you'll go to something that isn't political. It'll be more about the rigorous transparency necessary. What do capital markets want? They want rigor and transparency, and they want a reduction of fraudsters. Okay, they want help uncovering fraudsters

and they want rigorous transparency and disclosure. They don't want Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren picking winners and losers. They don't want Gensler telling you, well, Ripple's a security, he loses the court case and then he triples down on Ripple being a security. All right, they don't want Ripple having the same rough properties as Ethereum. One is a commodity and is able to

get a cash ETF, and the other one's in a forever lawsuit with the SEC. No sensible person would look at the way they're arbitrarily and capriciously administering those laws and say that that's good for capital markets or good for the country. It's interesting because I think a lot of people would argue that we're going to see that under this administration, that we're going to have the guy in charge, the king, with the divine right of kings, basically picking the winners and losers, i.e. his friends. So if you're a Tesla stockholder, you're probably pretty happy right now. I think a Trump presidency likely just means

that you get fast-tracked to returns. What would your response be to that? I want to be as balanced as possible. I think that is the case. That is the danger, that there's an oligarchic funnel at the top and revenues come off of the federal government into that funnel and feeds the

oligarchs that are close to Trump. And he figures out a way to line his own pocket. We've seen that story, that tale as his oldest time. But there are good parts of the right as well, where there are things that they see in markets that they know that they want to make them efficient as opposed to weaponize them. You know, again, tax policy can be used as a social instrument or tax policy could be used as a way to gain revenues. It could be a user fee for services that a government is rendering, you know, and I think we have to get back to that. We have to say, okay, we're paying XYZ in taxes here in New York, a result of which these are the services that we would like to receive from our government. And let's have a little bit of accountability on whether or not those services

are being rendered. So look, the problem with all this, there's good parts of the right and there's good parts of the left. How do you make the mosaic work in the most optimal way for the American people? By the way, Galloway, I'm just letting you know, I don't drink, but if I did drink, this entire bar behind me would have been consumed last night at about 4 a.m., okay? Well, do you know who, just a quick digression, do you know Dan Harris's 10% Happier? Yes. Yeah, 10% Happier. Yeah, I read his book. Yeah, he's a lovely guy. And I had him, we had him on the pod yesterday. And I've been more stressed about this than I have been about most things in a while. And I can't figure out if it's just neuroses or I have insight that this is somehow more seminal or more important than usual. Anyways, last night.

Because you're a student of human beings, you know this could be very dangerous. Well, you're being generous. But so I tried, he has this thing called the straw breathing method where you breathe in through your nose and then take double the time for exhale. I tried that last night. And fuck that if that didn't do anything. And so I moved to Peroni and Xanax, or as I call it, panics, and it worked. I started dancing to 80s music. That actually a pretty good, like they called Oregon for Kamala and that felt amazing, even though that was not that amazing. Anyways, my sense of him as a good long-term leadership is doing hard things in the face of adversity that pay off long-term or prevent a tragedy to the

commons. My sense is that's not Trump, that he wants to be loved and he has the biggest credit card in the world in the form of our printing press and the full faith and credibility of the U.S. Treasury. And that I would bet fairly soon he's going to announce a series of tax cuts. Do you think that's likely? I'm also, just a follow-up question, Donald Trump media, I wanted to bet on this market and I went into Polymarket and went into all these things and you can't bet from the UK and there's all this shit. I just like, I got overwhelmed and ended up not doing it. So I went out and I shorted Donald Trump stock.

And of course, last night it spiked 50%. And now it's back to kind of where it was. I'm curious, one, tax cut, and two, what do you think happens to Donald Trump media? Well, okay, so this is, you know, this is very cynical of me. Okay, so I'm going to just tell you what I think cynically. He'll try to push through that tax cut. The CBO will tell him that this will create massive, massive deficit spending. He won't be able to find anything that he's going to cut in the government to offset the tax cut, the reduction in revenues. And that'll cause, you know, look, it'll cause a sugar high for people. You know,

we're a very powerful country. We're a dollar-denominated world. And so we can extend our debt longer because we're paying it back in our own currency, which we, in fact, can create. We'll extend our debt longer. But if the BRIC countries, other countries, start denominating things in hard assets and gold and things like that, then I think we're going to – at some point, we're going to have a reckoning there. But I do see a tax cut coming and I do see Wall Street liking that. They're envisioning a lot of that will drop to the bottom line. The second thing with DJT, there's nothing there. He's got 600,000 users. They're rarely on the platform. He is the platform. But there would be no reason why these centa millionaires, again, let me rephrase it,

there'd be no reason why these centa billionaires, because we do have centa millionaires. Again, let me rephrase it. There'd be no reason why these centa billionaires, because we do have centa billionaires in our society, couldn't feed that stock to enrich Donald Trump, right? So that stock could have a $34 billion market cap, and Donald Trump files a registration with full disclosure that he's selling into that market cap. And those billionaires are effectively enriching him, okay, recognizing they're not getting anything of any material value in that company. But it is a very specious and unusual way to avoid campaign finance issues and to avoid enriching a candidate or a political figure. And so you want to talk about norm busting or rule breaking, these guys are launching meme coins two or three weeks before the election, you know, and now that meme coin did fizzle. They didn't get

a lot of demand for that meme boom because it was prima facie what it was, was just a ridiculous Ponzi scheme. But he's the sitting president. He's one of the most powerful people in the world. I can tell you there are heads of state right now all over the world that are trying to figure out what their personal relationship is going to be with him, what their government's going to be, their relationship is going to be with Trump's government. And what does it mean for their protection? If you're in Australia and you're looking north to China, do you want America as your friend? Do you want Donald Trump's help? Is Donald Trump going to disengage from you? You know, how many Americans know that we have a Marine battalion in Darwin, the northernmost city of Australia? How many people know that we cut a large submarine deal with them to help protect the waters around Australia? Donald Trump is telling people that he wants isolationism. He wants to reduce our footprint around the world. You know, there's lots of things that are going on right now. And one thing we know about him, he's transactional and he's easily influenced. So you tell me how, you know, DJT stock can end up being a home run for Donald Trump and his family, but not for the consistent, usual reasons of a startup having a successful IPO and having great earnings, great fundamentals,

and great growth. Is there any tail risk here? Do you have any predictions of things that you think might happen or will likely happen over the next 12 months that the media is missing right now? So, I was thinking about the very same thing last night. I've come up with two things that are tail risks. They're not, you know how Rumsfeld used to say there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. These are known. We just don't know the direction that could go in. But I have to tell you the Ukrainian issue

is a very, very big issue. Moreover, okay, the minute he ends the war in Ukraine or potentially partitions that country, does he then flip and help his friend by wiping out all these sanctions? And then what does that mean for Putin? How does that empower Putin to think about taking other countries? You know, that Moldova election the other night, that woman won that election. She's a pro-democracy person. She was up against a Putin puppet, and she was up against all the social media machinery that was engendered by Putin. Moldova is a small country, but if it falls, it falls, right? You

know, and all of a sudden, the dominoes start falling. You know, Roosevelt understood this better than any modern statesman. He read in German. You know, he lived in Germany for several years as a student, as a young man. And so he listened to Hitler's speeches in the original German. He read German. He read German newspapers. And he was like, this is going to cause us a very big problem. People are not going to see this as their problem because it's over there. But unfortunately, whether we like it same thing that we're doing for the Ukrainians right now through the Biden administration. Imagine Donald Trump in the Second World War.

Would he be practicing Len Lise with Joe Stalin and Winston Churchill? I mean, I think we know the answer to that. It's self-evident. But these are the things that I'm worried about. The U.S. has been predictable and reliable as a partner. Have we made policy mistakes? Certainly. Should we have gone into Iraq and Afghanistan? Perhaps not. Certainly not Vietnam. But we're predictable as a partner. You need our help. We're at your doorstep. When we stop going to the doorstep, What ends up happening is unnatural alliances form. You know, people need each other in a way that you didn't think. And I'll leave you with this thought, and you should really think about this because our elders understood this.

Marshall understood this, Eisenhower. There was a paragraph written in the Leviathan 350 years ago by Thomas Hobbes. And the paragraph read, and I am paraphrasing it, but the paragraph said that we are at our greatest level of global peace and global prosperity if there's one hegemon, if there's one superpower through its military might that's able to suppress the internecine tribal conflicts around the world. And he illustrated that. That would have been Pax Romana. That would have been Pax Britannia. It eventually became Pax Americana. And the point, and our elders understood this, that we had a big military footprint and we were a benevolent force

for good in rising global living standards, that would be very, very good for America and the world would think very well of us. If we're going to retract that and America becomes an unreliable partner in the idea of Western liberal democracies and the idea of the alliance, I think that has lots of negative consequences down the line, lots of derivative negative consequences that you may not see today, but you may see tomorrow in terms of the way America and Americans are treated around the world. Just one final question from me, Anthony. And again, thank you for your time. It's always just such a treat to have you on. I love how you draw from history and contextualize it. It really, it puts things into perspective.

Is there anything that you are optimistic about? Is there anything over the next four years that you think Trump could do a good job of? Yes. You know, there's lots of sides to Trump's personality. You know, there are people inside his campaign that have said to me, you know, he was sore about losing in 2020. He was adamant about trying to regain the presidency. Of course, he's the only, the second person to do that. Grover Cleveland did that. And there's a thought that he's 78 years old. He's going to want to play a lot of golf and he's a status-seeking guy. He may put the Jamie Diamonds in place and the Larry Finks and these superstar executives to run the government.

And he may hightail out of Washington a lot and be an absentee sort of landlord of the White House. Okay, so there is a thought that that could happen. But up against that thought, he's got a lot of hard right people that have Velcroed themselves to him in the last two years. And they want to systematically change things about our culture, women's reproductive rights, et cetera, and systematically change things about the way we process our government. And so I think those people are dangerous. I've spoken out against those people. And frankly, I will continue to

try to do that and try to be a voice of reason in our society. You know, I like you guys. What makes you guys so good at what you do is you love people. You know, Scott and I have spent some personal time together. He loves his students. He loves people. He wants to see American men get a restoration of their self-esteem and their self-confidence. And people can feel that from him. I love people. I'll leave you with this thought. My grandmother always said this to us, the best among us choose not to judge human beings' frailties. Okay? And what we have to do is sometimes recognize that we have shortcomings. Rather than denigrate and dehumanize, let's give each other a little bit of a break. And by the way, that also means ourselves. When we do things

that are stupid, you know, don't be so hard on ourselves. Let's not judge human frailty so harshly. And, you know, listen, you know, that's where I want to be. And that's the type of leadership I'd like in the country. This was really rough, very negative rhetoric that came out of Trump's mouth during this campaign. And if he executes on it, well, we're going to have some sad times here. But if he doesn't, you know, maybe things will be fine. And then we'll get to the next election and we'll have a real good debate. The Democrats will have to reform themselves for sure. I think that the Republicans are going to triple down on MAGA.

So the Democrats will have to reform themselves and present something very different to the American people than what they've been doing recently. Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm. He previously served as the White House Director of Communications for 11 days of the Trump administration. By the way, Anthony purposely puts that into his bio. You can find him on two podcasts. One is called The Rest is Politics U.S. and the other is called Open Book. Anthony, you're easily one of our favorite guests. Really appreciate you coming on on such an intense and busy day.

Well, no, I appreciate it. Guys, I appreciate the opportunity, as you know. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silveri is our research lead. Jessica Lange is our research associate. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is Alison Weiss. Mia Silveri is our research lead. Jessica Lange is our research associate. Drew Burrows is our technical director.

And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Profit G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday. You held me In kind Reunion As the world turns And the dark lies In my mind

I have not changed out of my pajamas. I've had a Xanax and three beers. Support for this show is brought to you by Nissan Kicks. It's never too late to try new things, and it's never too late to reinvent yourself. The all-new Reimagined Nissan Kicks is the city-sized crossover vehicle that's been completely revamped for urban adventure.

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