Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Get Invested: The 18.6-Year Cycle - Magic, Myth … or Mass Distraction?

Episode Date: January 30, 2026

Is the so-called “18.6-year property crash” a hidden law of markets, or just a neat story that keeps good investors stuck on the sidelines? If you’ve been sitting on your hands becau...se “the big crash is coming”, this episode is for you. In this solo deep-dive, Bushy pulls the 18.6-year cycle out of the internet echo chamber and puts it back where it belongs: as a lens, not a leash. Because while cycles do exist, markets don’t move like a metronome - and waiting for perfect timing has quietly cost many Australians a decade of compounding. In this episode, Bushy breaks down: Why the 18.6-year crash narrative is often clickbait - tidy, seductive, and dangerously freezing The real risk of half-right ideas: enough truth to feel safe, not enough to act safely Why “I’ll wait for the crash” usually fails - bottoms feel terrifying, credit tightens, and most people freeze Why property isn’t one market, but thousands of micro-markets moving at different speeds What cycles actually reflect (hint: credit, confidence, and liquidity - not dates on a calendar) How waiting for perfect timing can be more expensive than buying imperfectly well Why cycles should inform risk awareness, not fuel timing obsession The practical framework you’ll take away: Instead of betting your future on cycle dates, Bushy shows you how to focus on what you can actually control: Buffers and borrowing power A clear buy box Local, street-level market intelligence A long-term holding plan designed to survive uncertainty Plus, Bushy revisits the fundamentals that matter most - the 3 I’s and 3 P’s that create real growth gravity: Infrastructure, Industry diversity, Income growth Overlaid with Population, Policy, and Perception (sentiment) No crystal balls. No crash countdowns. Just calm, practical strategy. 🎧 Listen now and reset your framework before the next headline freezes you again. Take the next step with Bushy Personal Solutions Session Get clarity and personalised guidance: Book now Property W.E.A.L.T.H Program - live now! Be first to access discounts + free Module 1: Find out more https://courses.bushymartin.com.au/property-wealth Find your Freedom Formula Success in property starts with your 'why', and then the 'what' and 'how'. Let me, Bushy Martin, lead you through it! Sign up for my Freedom Formula program. The first session is absolutely free, and it only takes around an hour! Find out more https://bushymartin.com.au/freedom-formula-course Subscribe to Property Hub for free now on your favourite podcast player. Take the next step - connect, engage and get more insights with the Property Hub community at linktr.ee/propertyhubau Get property investment and wealth resources, and book a Personal Solution Session with Bushy. All the links and info are here: linktr.ee/propertyhubau About Get Invested, a Property Hub show Get Invested is the leading weekly podcast for Australians who want to learn how to unlock their full ‘self, health and wealth’ potential. Hosted by Bushy Martin, an award winning property investor, founder, author and media commentator who is recognised as one of Australia’s most trusted experts in property, investment and lifestyle, Get Invested reveals the secrets of the high performers who invest for success in every aspect of their lives and the world around them. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube to get every Get Invested episode each week for free. For business enquiries, email andrew@apiromarketing.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome Freedom Fighters. If you've tuned into this, chances are you've heard someone say with big confidence that the 18.6 year property crash is coming. And maybe a tiny part of you thought, hang on, should I be waiting? Should I be selling? Or should I be running for the hills of my equity in a wheelbarrow? Because right now, half the headlines are screaming boom, while the other half are yelling bust. And in the middle, you've got cycle spruikers drawing lines on charts like they're playing property connector dots. With everyday investors getting hypnotized into doing nothing, which is generally the most expensive decision you'll ever make. So in this episode, I'm going to pull the 18.6 year property cycle out of the internet echo chamber and put it on
Starting point is 00:00:47 the workbench to help you decide whether it's magic, myth, or mass destruction. I'll explain what it claims, who's pushing it, what dates it's pointing to, and the one part of it that's actually useful, before I give you a calm, practical GPS to help you better invest through uncertainty so that you don't end up timing a myth and missing a decade. So if you're ready to swap fear for frameworks, let's get invested. Welcome to Get Invested on the Property Hub podcast channel, the leading weekly show for Australians who want to learn how to unlock their full self, health and wealth potential. I'm your host Bushy Martin and each week I go deep with the best investors, experts, leaders and founders to find out what it takes to break
Starting point is 00:01:35 free from the grind, discover freedom and to live by design. Subscribe now and join me and get invested in the life that you really want. Let's get started. Hi Freedom Fighters. Today's episode dedicated to all of those good people sitting on the fence waiting for the crash, while time keeps marching on like a tradie with a nail gun and a double shot latte. Because I've become increasingly concerned about the growing number of aspiring and existing investors who've been hypnotised into inaction or wrong action by boom bust cycle spruikers. Now last week I outlined how you can best achieve property success this year but before I do a special deep dive episode outlining what you really need to consider to achieve sustainable property success long term given that the key is
Starting point is 00:02:26 to be clear on who you're actually going to sell your property to in 15 years plus before you buy it in the context of the fast approaching tidal waves of changes that are coming our way in the years to come through the mix of global instability, climate shifts, AI economic impacts and demographic changes I need to balance the books by putting some reality back into the current wave of predictive crash cycle debates that are dominating the airwaves. So let me start by asking you some challenging questions. What if the much publicised 18.6 year cycle is real but you're using it in the wrong way? What if it's not a property timing tool but a credit and confidence barometer? What if waiting for the crash
Starting point is 00:03:13 is actually the most expensive decision you'll ever make because you missed the magic of TLC? Not tender loving care, but the exponentially multiplying impact of integrating time, leverage and compounding. And here's a spicy one. What if the people yelling crash aren't trying to help you at all?
Starting point is 00:03:32 They're just renting your attention at penalty rates. Hmm, food for thought. If any of these questions made you sit up straighter in your chair, then good, because by the end of this episode, you'll have a crystal clear framework for how to think about cycles without being trapped by them. And you'll know what to do next, even if the headlines scream DOOM. But first, a quick bum covering disclaimer. Everything we talk about is general education, not personal financial advice,
Starting point is 00:04:02 because I just don't know your income, your buffers, your health, your risk profile, your landing position or your goals. So take the principles then match them to your plan together with your qualified professionals Now, let me tell you a short story Years ago, I watched a bloke at a barbecue swear blind that he could predict the rain Not like, yeah, I saw the bomb app No, no, no, he had a system He'd look at the ants, he'd smell the breeze
Starting point is 00:04:28 He'd watch the clouds, he'd check his knee And he'd say, there's going to be a storm in 48 hours, guaranteed and you know what? Occasionally he was right and when he was right he became a legend but when he was wrong he'd do something magical. He'd revise the story. Ah but the wind changed. Ah but the ants were confused. Ah but it was a dry storm. In other words the model was never wrong. Reality was wrong and that freedom fighters is the exact psychological trap that neat confident market cycles can lure you into. They feel clean. They feel clever. They feel like control. But property isn't a metronome. It's not a drumbeat. It's more like an orchestra with 30
Starting point is 00:05:17 or more instruments, half of them out of tune, and the conductor is a caffeinated mix of human emotion, credit availability, government policy, job markets and local supply, just to mention a few of the dynamic factors that all affect property and just when you think you've learned the song someone changes the sheet music now let's focus on the 18.6 year cycle that we hear so much about because it's one of the most talked about sheet music models out there it's catchy it's crisp it's shareable and it's also dangerous if you treat it like a prophecy rather than a hypothesis us. So here's a promise. I'm going to do three things today. One, I'll explain what the 18.6 year cycle is supposed to be, how it's supposed to work, and what dates it supposedly points to.
Starting point is 00:06:08 Two, I'll show you where it has some genuine logic underneath it, especially around credit and land, as well as where it becomes a confidence trick. And three, I'll give you a better invested GPS on how to invest through uncertainty using TLC, the three I's, the three P's and the real world truth that there's no such thing as a single property market because there are millions of micro-markets if the term market is even something you can apply to property, which I actually don't think you can. And your job is to buy one that fits your lifestyle by design, not by default. Alright, let's talk about why we love cycles so much. Because it matters.
Starting point is 00:06:51 It explains why we fall for them. Because we are all pattern machines. Our brains are basically a meaning-making broom-barrelled robot vacuum cleaner. It bumps into complexity and tries to draw a neat map. Because uncertainty is uncomfortable. Uncertainty feels like standing on a surfboard in a storm. and a tidy cycle feels like someone handed you a life jacket. The problem, sometimes the life jacket is made of concrete.
Starting point is 00:07:20 Cycles are seductive because they give you a story, a villain, a timeline and a moment of, I told you so. And the content economy, I told you so, is better currency than it depends. But investing in success is mostly built on, it depends. It depends on your buffers, it depends on your strategy, Depends on the asset, depends on the suburb, depends on your time frame, etc, etc. Now, before we define the 18.6 year cycle, I want to set the big frame.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Property is not a commodity. A commodity is homogenous. One ounce of gold is like every other ounce of gold. One barrel of oil is like every other barrel of oil. But property? Well, every property in every street, in every suburb, in every state is different. Different land, different frontage, different aspect, different floor plan, different neighbours, different school zone, different flood overlay, different renovation potential. And even proponents of the 18.6 year cycle admit something important.
Starting point is 00:08:27 There are markets within markets. And there are roughly 11 million properties in over 15,000 areas across the country that each behave differently, meaning that you've got multitudes of different micro markets in the country. now that's not me saying it that's from the cycle speakers themselves so right there even inside the cycle camp is an accidental confession you can't reduce property to one beat yep people try which brings us to the star of today the 18.6 year property cycle so let's define a property because you can't debunk what you can't define and if you've heard this topic floating around social media, it deserves some clarity. So here we go. The 18.6 year property cycle is presented as a theory that real estate markets experience a repeating predictable pattern of booms and
Starting point is 00:09:20 busts every 18.6 years. Not 18 years or so, but 18.6, which sounds exact and calculated and deceivingly more believable. And you'll hear it described as a rhythm of recovery, expansion boom and then bust with a mid-cycle dip in there when supply catches up a bit and sentiment wobbles and then the final phase the blow-off the everyone's a genius phase the phase where taxi drivers give you property tips and the phase where people say it's going to be different this time and then the theory says something breaks credit tightens confidence cracks, prices fall, and the cycle resets. Now, who pushes this idea? Well, the origin story you will often hear is that the concept was noted by an early real estate analyst and then expanded
Starting point is 00:10:13 on later by names like Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson. And Phil Anderson is one of the best known modern voices in this space. He talks about an approximate 18 to 20 year cycle in land prices, where land prices rise for about 14 years, hit a pinnacle, and then collapse for a couple of years. That's the backbone. Land, credit, speculation, reset. And in a lot of online commentary, the cycle is presented at the confidence level that sounds like someone found the cheat codes for the monopoly. Now, let's bring this to the bit that really people care about, the dates. Because no one shares a cycle theory for fun.
Starting point is 00:10:55 They share it to say, here comes the crash. Most of the podcasts I've heard about it all suggest that somewhere between 2026 and 2027, depending on who you're listening to, we're going to experience the mother of all price crashes since the GFC. That's the headline. That's the clickbait rocket fuel. From 2026 to 2027. Boom, bust, to boom.
Starting point is 00:11:20 Now, I'm not saying these people are evil, but I am saying certainty sells and fear spreads faster than facts but here's where it gets interesting even within these conversations you'll hear nuance you'll hear cycle proponents say it's not one size fits all or it doesn't work at suburb level
Starting point is 00:11:40 and the more traditional drivers like supply, demand, infrastructure matter massively at the local level that's a crucial point because it lines up with what I've been saying to clients for years. If you invest using a macro headline, you miss a micro opportunity. And if you hear a national crash, you'll ignore the fact that one suburb is early in its S-curve,
Starting point is 00:12:06 another's late, another's flat, another's gentrifying, another is being strangled by policy, another is being turbocharged by jobs and infrastructure. So the question becomes, is the 18.6-year property cycle magic? myth or a misused lens? To answer that we need to separate three things. One, the longish financial cycle that serious institutions have observed in credit and property. Two, the exact 18.6 year metronome claim and three, the way social media turns a hypothesis into a religion. Let's start with the grown-up version, the financial cycle. Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements
Starting point is 00:12:48 or BIS have studied medium term fluctuations in credit and property prices. They characterize a financial cycle that's longer than the standard business cycle of often around in the order of 16 to 20 years. Now that's important because it says yes credit and property can move in longer waves but it doesn't say that you can set your watch to 18.6 and time the peak to a three month window. In fact, the BIS work emphasises the medium term and the variability. And that's the key. Real cycles aren't tidy. Tidy cycles are content. Now, I want to give you my bushy translation. There is a credit tide and property is one of the boats. When credit's loose, the tide rises. When credit tightens, the tide drops. But every boat is different. Some are yachts,
Starting point is 00:13:42 some are tinnies, some have holes in them. A rising tide doesn't make a leaky boat safe and a falling tide doesn't sink a well-built one. Which brings us back to property. The asset quality matters, the location matters, the holding power matters. Now, the 18.6 year theory count often link the turning points to land prices absorbing credit,
Starting point is 00:14:09 development feasibility breaking and stock market sniffing at our first. That's a coherent story, but coherence isn't proof. Coherence is just a neat narrative. And in complex systems, neat narratives are often incomplete narratives. So how do we test it? We do two things. We look at repeatability and we look at usefulness, not does it sound smart.
Starting point is 00:14:35 Does it actually help investors make better decisions without creating catastrophic mistakes? because here's my fear, and I'll say it plainly. I'm increasingly concerned that the overselling of this cycle is keeping everyday investors out of the market for the wrong reasons at the wrong times and costing them decades of compounding. I've had investors tell me straight to my face, Bushy, we're waiting because we heard the crash is coming.
Starting point is 00:15:01 And I want to gently but firmly say that strategy has wrecked more wealth journeys than bad suburbs ever did. because sitting out isn't neutral sitting out is a decision now let me show you why timing the crash is just such a trap because even if you're right you can still lose and here's the paradox if you wait for the crash you need to be right twice you need to get out at the top and you need to get back in at the bottom that's a two-shot trick and most people can't even nail one shot you know why because bottoms feel like danger and not opportunity. When the bottom arrives, the headlines are screaming,
Starting point is 00:15:43 your neighbours panicking, banks are tightening and your nervous system is doing backflips in the kitchen. That's not when most people buy. That's when most people freeze. So the wait for the crash crowd often end up with the worst outcome. They sit out the growth, they miss the compounding, then they don't buy the bottom anyway. And then, when prices finally recover,
Starting point is 00:16:04 they buy later at high prices with less leverage and more regret it's like refusing to get on a plane just because you heard about turbulence then driving cross-country in a shopping trolley now at this point if you're a cycle believer you might be thinking bushy you're dodging it does the cycle work or not well that's fair so let's go there let's talk about what the cycle gets right and what it gets wrong and to do that we need to zoom in from macro to micro to micro, because that's where real investing is decided. Not in a podcast theory, but in the street, in the numbers, in the life plan. So let's go. Let's start with what it gets right. The cycle cam talks about credit. In credit matters,
Starting point is 00:16:53 property is not just shelter. In modern economies, it's also collateral. When banks lend more, buyers can pay more. When banks lend less, buyers are constrained. That's not controversial, that's plumbing. The cycle camp also talks about land. You can renovate a house, you can replace a kitchen, you can add a deck, but you can't make more in the ring land next to jobs, transport, schools and lifestyle. So land value cycles do have logic. The question is, does that logic become a predictable clock? Or is it more like a weather system, where patterns exist but time is messy? This is where the BIS financial cycle research is actually useful. It supports the idea that credit and property can move in longer arcs, but it does not support a precise repeating 18.6
Starting point is 00:17:47 year metronome. And here's why. The world changes. Landing rules change, demographics change, governments intervene, wars happen, pandemics happen, immigration changes, tax setting change, construction capacity changes and sentiment changes. So even if there's a rough rhythm, the instruments keep changing. It's like saying every 18 years Australia will win the Ashes cricket series. I'd love that, but it's not a law of physics. Now the cycle also gets one thing right that I don't hear enough people say. Local knowledge matters. Even in other podcast 18.6 year cycle conversations, you'll hear there are markets within markets. There are thousands of markets. Local knowledge is best knowledge. That's gold. But here's the irony. The moment you accept markets
Starting point is 00:18:37 within markets, you've basically destroyed the usefulness of a single timing rule. Because if suburbs move differently from each other, then the crash is not one event. It's a bunch of different local adjustments happening at different times for different reasons with different intensity, which is exactly what we see in the real world. Let me give you an example. Imagine two properties. One's a well-located family home, walking distance of school, shops, transport and jobs. The other's a cookie-cutter house on the fringe in a sea of land relays with no scarcity and a long commute. Now a macro downturn hits. Which one holds up? Nine times out of ten the scarce one holds better because scarcity has gravity and the fringe one gets whacked harder
Starting point is 00:19:25 because it's competing with heaps of lookalikes. Same market, different outcome. That's why I say property isn't a commodity. You can't talk about it like wheat. Now let's talk about the big mistake people make with the 18.6 year cycle. They confuse a macro credit lens with a micro property decision tool. They use a telescope to butter toast. Yes, you can do it, but it's messy and you'll miss the bread. Now, I want to address the Australia will crash when America turns down claim. You'll hear cycle voices say Australia doesn't lead the cycle and won't turn down until America does, that you have to follow the US. Okay. Could global credit conditions influence Australia? Of course. We're connected, but influence is not control. Australia has its
Starting point is 00:20:18 own drivers. Immigration settings, banking regulation, tax incentives, supply constraints, wage growth, state-based policy, local infrastructure booms. And within Australia, Brisbane behaves differently to Melbourne Perth behaves differently to Sydney and inside Sydney a suburb can behave differently to the suburb next door. Now here's a twist
Starting point is 00:20:41 the real danger of the cycle isn't that it's totally wrong the danger is that it's only half right because half right ideas are the most persuasive they contain enough truth to feel undeniable but not enough truth to be safely actionable as a rule.
Starting point is 00:20:58 and if you're listening thinking bushy that sounds like most of the internet well yes yes it does so what do we do we take the paths that help and we reject the paths that create catastrophic behavior and the catastrophic behavior is this sitting out of property waiting for a crash that may not arrive the way that you imagine it will while the right micro markets keep compounding Now let's talk about how property actually moves in simple language because this is the core education I want you to walk away with. Property is influenced by macro lift and drag, micro lift and drag and micro lift and drag. Macro is things like interest rates, credit availability, inflation, wages, national policy settings, immigration and population growth. Micro includes state economies,
Starting point is 00:21:51 industry clusters, infrastructure projects, planning rules, land supply controls and rental regulations. And micro gets down to street appeal, school zones, walkability, renovation potential, block usability, flood and fire overlays, local supply and demand pockets and local sentiment. And then overlay all of that with human psychology, fear, greed, herd behavior media narratives and social proof so any model that says one number rules them all is missing most of the drivers which means means it's going to fail when the missing drivers dominate now here's my favorite visual most people imagine property growth like a line up up up but that's not what it looks like in real life most precincts and areas move through
Starting point is 00:22:44 an S-curve of growth that runs anywhere between 8 to 15 years, with the average being 15 years based on the last 45 years out of value growth. And the curve time isn't consistent. An area may move through it in 8 years this time, but then takes 15 years the next time, depending on the combination of lifting bag factors and action. So breaking down the S-curve stages, we generally see an early stage that runs for 5 to 8 years that's flat, boring, and nobody cares. Then a period of one to two years where momentum begins, scarcity tightens and demand builds. Then comes the steep bit, the exciting bit, the why didn't we buy earlier gross bite bit that runs for somewhere between two to five years.
Starting point is 00:23:28 Then the mature bit with slow growth, more stock and less surprise. If all values then soften by five to 10% for one to two years, which is pretty common, you expect it, before it then flatlines again for five to eight years as the F-curve starts again. So you see a repeating S-curve peak and plateau ascending step formation happening over time. And that S-curve can run over eight years or it can run 15.
Starting point is 00:23:56 It can stall. It can re-accelerate if the drivers change. That's why timing is almost impossible. But selecting the right S-curve at the right stage, that's where strategy wins. And that's why I want you to stop asking, Where is the market going? And started asking, where is this area going?
Starting point is 00:24:17 Where is this street going? And where is this property going? Now, let's talk about the biggest myth that this cycle encourages. That there's one crash, one event, one cliff, that the whole country falls together. Bread and Fires, that's as useful as a chocolate teapot. Because even when Australia experiences broader corrections, the experience is uneven. It's patchy. and the strongest scarcity zones are resilient and usually rebound first,
Starting point is 00:24:46 which is why the best investors don't fear volatility, they plan for it, they hold for it, they buffer for it and they use it. And they keep buying quality when they can. Which brings us to the next piece, the arbitrage opportunity because you asked for it. Can you use other people's belief in the 18.6 year cycle to your advantage? Yes, if you do it with maturity Not with ego, and I'll show you how
Starting point is 00:25:14 But first, we need to do a quick demolition of revisionist history Because this is how cycle stories get built Revisionist history is when someone starts with a conclusion Then walks backwards and cherry picks events to make it look inevitable It's storytelling with a target And it's everywhere You can do with anything Watch, I can prove that property crashes happen every time my dog sneezes.
Starting point is 00:25:39 Step one, find two crashes. Step two, find two sneezes. Step three, draw lines. Step four, ignore all the sneezes when nothing happened. Step five, sell a course. That's not analysis, that's astrology wearing a spreadsheet. Now to be fair, the cycle researchers are often doing deeper work than that. Of course they are.
Starting point is 00:26:00 They're looking at credit, they're looking at land, they're looking at feasibility. they're looking at confluence but the online media layer that spreads the cycle that often does a sneeze method it's clickbait dot joining and the problem is we're all extremely vulnerable to dot joining because it feels like discovery this is the power of a good story a story can move a faster than a statistic and it can feel truer than a spreadsheet so let me give you my filter. If someone is selling certainty ask what do you do when you're wrong? The answer is I'm never wrong, rum. Now the 18.6 year cycle prediction landing sometime in 2026 and 2027 is exactly the kind of claim that can create wealth harm because if an investor believes it
Starting point is 00:26:56 they may do one of two things one they sell good assets early out of fear or two they never buy it all and both outcomes can be disastrous because the best time to invest is not when the guru gives you permission the best time to invest is every time you can and the assets right the numbers are right and you can hold it through all weather not because there's no risk but because giving yourself lots of TLC, which is not tender loving care, but time leverage and compounding, is how real wealth is built. Now, I want to make this practical. If you're listening right now, I want you to answer this. Could you survive a 10% paper drop if it happened? Not emotionally, but financially. Could you still hold? Could you still sleep? Because if you can, the timing becomes less
Starting point is 00:27:46 important. Holding power becomes your superpower. This is where most investors get it wrong. They try to forecast the world instead of fortifying their plan. Fortifying means focusing on rainy day reserve buffers like cash flow affordability, insurance, redundancy and conservative assumptions. Because you can't control the storm but you can build the arc. And that's not my line, that's the essence of a famous Buffett quote. Predicting rain doesn't count, building arcs does. Now, let's talk about where the cycle can be used as arbitrage, where arbitrage is just a fancy word for making a low-risk profit
Starting point is 00:28:27 from the same thing being priced differently in two places at the same time. So here's the mature version. If enough people believe a crash is coming, their behaviour changes. They hesitate, they delay, they underbid, they stop competing, they become picky and this can create opportunities for prepared buyers but not reckless buyers. So here's a quick readiness check. Imagine you had to make one decision this week to move you closer to your version of financial freedom without buying anything yet. What would it be? Here are a few grown-up moves. Book a borrowing power refresh. Build a proper buffer plan. Define your buy box in writing. Choose three target
Starting point is 00:29:12 micro areas. Track stock levels weekly. Talk to a local property manager about rents and vacancy. Drive the streets and fill the pockets. Because the best investors don't wait for certainty, they create readiness. And readiness is what turns other people's hesitation into your negotiation advantage. So rely on maths before myths. But I digress. Let's get back to what prepared actually means. Prepared buyers are investors with their finance sorted, buffers in place, a clear strategy and buying criteria tight. So prepared buyers have their finance ready, criteria clear and due diligence detailed, which means prepared buyers are pre-approved, pickier than a toddler at dinner time and process-driven, not panic-driven. So you
Starting point is 00:30:04 can absolutely arbitrage belief by being the calm one when others are noisy. But only if you don't adopt belief as your identity. You use it without worshipping it. Here's a practical example. If the media is screaming crash in 2026, some vendors will panic. Some will accept cleaner offers. Some will accept longer settlements. Some will accept stronger terms. And if you're sitting there with your pre-approval, your team, your due diligence process, you can win deals without paying peak emotional prices. That's arbitrage. But notice, it's not timing the market. It's timing human behavior. And that's a big difference. Now, let's lock in a proven investor framework because I don't want you walking away thinking okay Bushy hates cycles. I don't hate cycles. I hate people
Starting point is 00:30:57 being harmed by oversimplified certainty. The right way to treat cycles is as context not commandments. So here's the framework. Step one always start with your freedom numbers. What life are you trying to build? What income do you need? What time freedom are you choosing? And what's your timeline. Step two, use TLC as your engine, time, leverage, compounding. Step three, use the three I's and three P's to access scarcity drivers, the three I's of new infrastructure, industry diversity and income growth, supported by the three P's of population growth, policy stimulus, perception and local sentiment. If you can find a location where multiple of those are strengthening and supply is constrained, you're within QE of growth gravity. Step four,
Starting point is 00:31:48 identify the local S-curve stage. Is it early, rising, steep or mature? Remember, S-curves don't move in sync. Step five, build six-month rainy day reserve buffers like a grown-up through offset savings, investment equity loan, war chest surpluses and tax variations to keep more money in your pocket more often if and when you need it because if you can't hold you can't compounding and compounding is the whole point now i want to challenge you write this down i don't need to predict i need to prepare because prediction is fragile but preparation is powerful and the biggest mistake the 18.6 year cycle can cause is taking prepared investors and turning them into hesitant spectators. Now, let me land the plane. But before I do, I want to give you
Starting point is 00:32:46 three clear actions to take after this episode. Not theory, actions. Action one, audit your buffers and your rainy day reserves. If rates rise again, can you hold? If vacancies increase, can you hold? If repairs hit, can you hold? If land tax changes, can you hold? You need at least six months worth of living expenses to be in reserve if something happens because holding power is your moat. It's the reason why over half of first-time investors
Starting point is 00:33:22 sell the property in the first five years because they haven't looked at what the actual holding cost of a property is. action two tighten your box in terms of your buy buy criteria stop thinking in markets think in micro climates choose scarcity choose future improvements in infrastructure industry and incomes choose land choose owner-occupier appeal choose employment and choose long-term desirability action three turn down the noise if you're consuming content that makes you fearful but not more capable it's not education it's entertainment the site of anxiety now let's finish properly let's recap the truth in one simple sentence the best time to invest is every
Starting point is 00:34:10 time you can when the assets right the numbers are right and you can hold it because TLC does the heavy lifting not guru calendars and to close here's my quote of the week and it's perfectly suited the cycle talk. All models are wrong, but some are useful. So use a model as a lens, not as a leash. And here's my bushy riff that I'll leave you with. Models are maps, but the street still has potholes. So keep your eyes up, your buff is strong, your strategy clear, and your life bite is on. If you know someone sitting on the fence waiting for the crash, share this episode with them not to win an argument but to rescue a decade of lost compounding and if you need any help with this or any aspect of your property investment or finance journey
Starting point is 00:34:59 so that you can actually do property properly to better achieve your lifestyle goals feel free to tap into my newly released property wealth program that gives you the step-by-step process or book with me directly for a one-on-one personal solution session by clicking the links in the show notes in the meantime be smart keep smiling and always get invested thanks for tuning in to get invested on the property hub podcast channel your home for property investment insights and inspiration make sure you subscribe to property hub for free get your weekly dose of get invested inspiration along with every episode of realty talk australia's top online property show for red hot property investing news and insights direct from industry leaders and influencers
Starting point is 00:35:48 And finally, I'll see you next time.

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