Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Get Invested: The great property crash ... that isn't!

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hi Frame Fighters, what if the great property crash that we're hearing about everywhere isn't actually a crash? What if the headlines screaming housing cliff, market collapse, big has fallen 40 years and the bottom's fallen out of Australian property are really just describing something much less scary and much more useful? A reset, a confidence wobble, a long overdue return to same conditions after the post-COVID property sugar hit. because let's be honest the last few years weren't normal they were property musical chairs with pre-approval letters and everyone wanted in some knew what they were doing but plenty didn't and a bunch of newbie overnight sensation property pod piper buyers agents and property influencers

Starting point is 00:00:44 were marching investors towards anything with a floor plan postcode and a glossy brochure that went up and to the right like it had been stapled to a fishing rod but now rates are higher Buying capacity is tighter. Inflation is boiling. Confidence is wobbling. And the proposed post-budget tax changes have tipped a bucket of confusion over investors who were already wearing wet socks. And you've given me so much positive feedback from my recent post-budget PhD trilogy of

Starting point is 00:01:15 podcasts, along with the most memorable moments that you've been replaying, that we're going to pause our annual property wealth clock rollout again briefly to give you the take-home gold on what's happening, where we're heading and what you need to be doing and not doing about it all. And a special shout out to Brian and Ben for taking the time to give me some great commentary. I really appreciate that guys. So today we're cutting through the whole fog machine. No three-hour tax marathon, no spreadsheet snorkeling, no political spin bingo, just the gold, the numbers, the growth picture, the net nest egg ladder and the answer to the question that you've all been asking and need the answer to. Is residential property still

Starting point is 00:01:59 worth holding, buying and relying on to build future freedom? In my view, yes, but not lazily because property investing isn't dead, but lazy investing is. And frankly, lazy investing probably needed a decent slap with a wet fish anyway. So today I'll show you why a short-term cooling may actually create a better window for serious strategic prepared investors. Why the long-term property growth story is still supported by scarcity, demand and compelling and while the real question is not where do I pay the least tax, it's what builds my strongest usable net nest egg. And make sure you stay with me because later in the episode I'll give you the simple dollar and percentage ladder that compares your options between paying down your home loan, ETFs,

Starting point is 00:02:48 commercial, super, existing residential and qualifying new build. So that you can actually see with hard facts why quality residential property still deserves its place as one of the strongest wealth building engines for hardworking Aussies. And because so many of you asked for this clarity after my recent post-budget podcast trio, or as one of you kindly called it war and peaceful stamp duty we've also released our new ebook how shall i invest in property now and it's available free for this short release window through the link in the show notes so grab it while it's still available because it gives you the practical field guide behind recent podcasts and today's episode it talks about what's changed what hasn't what to

Starting point is 00:03:33 hold, what to avoid, what to buy, what to stress test, and how to stop reacting to headlines like the investment advice. Because the smartest investors from here won't panic, they won't pause forever, and they won't chase the next shiny thing like a kelpie after a tennis ball. They'll understand the numbers, respect the changes, build the buffer, buy quality, and keep building wealth by design, not by default. So if you want the gold without the fog, the clarity without the chaos and the confidence to keep moving when everyone else is staring at the headlines like a possum in high beam headlights, you're in the right place. So stay with us and I'll see you on the inside. Welcome to Get Invested on the Property Hub podcast channel, the leading weekly show for

Starting point is 00:04:18 Australians who want to learn how to unlock their full self, health and wealth potential. I'm your host, Bushy Martin, and each week I go deep with the best investors, experts, leaders and founders to find out what it takes to break free from the grind, discover freedom and to live by design. Subscribe now and join me and get invested in the life that you really want. Let's get started. But first, a quick heads up before we jump into today's episode. After the huge response to our recent deep dives on the proposed post-budget property tax changes on negative gearing, CGT and the impacts of all of this on new builds, existing properties, trusts, super, commercial, ETFs and the whole confusing tax spaghetti bowl and what it all

Starting point is 00:05:04 means to you, we've been working really hard to pull together some free resources to help you cut through the noise so you can finally understand what you should be doing now with your money and your property in this new post-budget tax world. They're designed to answer the questions that many of you have been asking. Is residential property still worth it? Should I buy established on you? Should I pay down my home loan? Should I look at shares, ETFs, commercial or super? And what are the real dollar impacts of these changes and how do they compare to other options that I need to consider? And most importantly, what helps me build my strongest usable net nest egg to achieve my version of freedom? Not just pay the smallest tax bill. Because the budget

Starting point is 00:05:53 noise has made everything feel like a financial rubies cube wearing boxing gloves. So our short, sharp guides bring it all back to earth with simple explanations, half dollar examples, percentage comparisons, and the best nest test to help you make better informed decisions from here. And the best part, they're absolutely free. So if you want to make better informed decisions, just click the link in the show notes and grab your copies. Because property investing isn't dead, but lazy investing is. And the smarter investors from here will be the ones who cut through the noise, run the numbers, and act with informed strategy, not stress. Righto, let's get back to the episode. Hi, friend and fighters. Have you started wondering whether residential property

Starting point is 00:06:39 has finally had a stay? Because if you have, you're not alone. Over the last few weeks, I've had existing investors, aspiring investors, clients, listeners, friends, and even a few normally calm humans who don't usually look like they've swallowed a calculator all asking some version of the same question. Bushy. With the proposed budget changes, with negative gearing and CGT being turned into political footballs, with property prices softening,

Starting point is 00:07:06 with the media screening crash, with buyer confidence wobbling and with everyone suddenly saying shares super commercial or paying down the home loan might be easier, is residential property still worth it? or have we missed the big wealth building boat now they're not silly questions it's actually the right questions because when the rules appear to change and the headlines get louder and the fog gets thicker you don't need more noise you need a torch you need a map and ideally you

Starting point is 00:07:40 need someone who isn't trying to sell you a shiny new shortcut while quietly backing you up to your future. So today, that's what we're doing. We're cutting through the whole post-budget property panic machine, and we're answering the question that you actually care about. What should I do with my money now? Not in theory, not in political spin, not in tax jargon that sounds like it was written by a community of sleep-deprived owls, but in plain English, with real numbers, simple comparisons with the growth picture, the holding cost reality, and with a net nest egg ladder that shows why the lowest tax bill doesn't automatically create the strongest financial freedom outcome. Because this is the trap right now. The budget noise has made property look more

Starting point is 00:08:26 complicated, more risky, and less attractive than it actually is. So it's tempting to think, maybe I should just pay down the home loan. Maybe I should just buy ETFs. Maybe super's cleaner. Maybe commercial smarter. Maybe I should wait for the crash. Maybe I should do nothing until every economist, politician, journalist, broker, buyer's agent, accountant, and a bloke in the cafe with a loud opinion finally agrees. Which, by the way, is also known as never. So instead of waiting for certainty, today I'm going to give you clarity.

Starting point is 00:09:02 And I'm going to do it without making you sit through another three-hour Bush Bible Property Tax Encyclopedia. Because yes, over the last few episodes, I've gone really deep, very deep. Episode 434 on the new Post-Budget Property Tax Investors Playbook was basically the Post-Budget Property Investors PhD thesis with a microphone. Episode 435 on Hold, Sell, Value or Panic helped you understand whether your existing property was grandfathered, gutted or gifted. And episode 436 asked the big question, what should you buy now? But today I'm pulling out all of the gold, the stuff you need if you want to stay calm, make sense of the numbers and keep building wealth while everyone else is doom

Starting point is 00:09:50 scrolling their way into confusion. And make sure you stick around for the net nest egg comparison later in the episode because that's where the penny really drops. We'll compare what your hard earned money may broadly do across your home loan, ETFs, commercial property super, future established residential, grandfathered residential and qualifying new builds. And I'll show you why quality residential property still deserves its place as one of the strongest, most accessible long-term growth engines for hard-working Aussies, even after the proposed tax changes if they come to play. Not because tax doesn't matter, it does. Not because property's risk-free, it isn't. And not because every property's a winner, please. Some properties are less investment grade and

Starting point is 00:10:37 more future regret with the laundry. But because when you combine quality, scarcity, time, tenant contribution, bank leverage, and the ability to hold, residential property still has serious net nest egg power and that's exactly why we've released our new ebook how should i invest in property now it's live and we're also preparing a short read rechner that pulls out the key dollar percentage and net nest egg comparisons and a punchier easy to share format now the ebook's currently free during this short release window so just click the link in the show notes and grab your copy while it's available because it includes the detail the decision filters the best nest framework and the practical guidance that we just won't have time to fully unpack today

Starting point is 00:11:24 and after you've read it just email me at bushey at khgroup.com.au with your best takeaway and your one must-do action and then I'll personally choose one response to receive a free property mentoring session that's normally charged at point of 95 bucks so hit me up and email me now Because this episode is not just about helping you understand what's happening. It's about helping you decide what you should do next. So let's start by dealing with the loudest headline of all, the Great Australian Property Crash. Except, I don't think that's what's happening at all. So let's call it for what it is.

Starting point is 00:12:07 Property isn't crashing, confidence is just calling. And they're not the same thing. The media loves a crash headline because normal cycle correction doesn't exactly make you spit your coffee across the dashboard. And no one clicks property conditions move through perfectly predictable mid-cycle digestion phase. That headline has all the sex appeal for wet, wet Weet-Bix. But slap the word crash on the front, add a photo of someone looking terrified beside a for sale sign, and suddenly the entire country is meant to believe our homes are about to slide into a financial sinkhole. Now let's be clear, some prices are softening. Some areas will come back.

Starting point is 00:12:49 Some property types will struggle. Some investor heavy locations may feel the proposed tax changes more than others. And if you bought the wrong asset in the wrong location at the wrong price with the wrong structure because someone on Instagram called it a below market opportunity while standing in front of a rented Lamborghini, then yes, you may well feel some pain. But that's not the same thing as saying quality residential property in quality locations

Starting point is 00:13:16 has suddenly stopped being one of Australia's major long-term wealth-building engines, because it hasn't. What we're seeing really is the overstretched spring settling back down. And I've talked about this for years. Property growth doesn't move in a straight line or a beautiful, smooth exponential curve.

Starting point is 00:13:34 it moves more like a s-shaped hiking track you climb hard you puff your calves start asking whether you've made some questionable life choices then the path flattens often it dips slightly you catch your breath the crowd thins out the noisy tourists disappear and the serious walkers keep moving that's property over a normal 10 to 15 year cycle you often see strong growth for two three four sometimes five years like we just have then a pullback a plateau or a long sideways shuffle before the next leg of gross then begins and after the post-covid property sugar hit a breather was not just possible it was way overdue because the last five years haven't been normal they were turbocharged by cheap money fear of missing out lifestyle relocation work from

Starting point is 00:14:25 home shifts, savings buffers, construction shortages, low listings and a collective national moment where every spare bedroom suddenly became a home office, a podcast studio, a yoga cave and somewhere to hide from the kids. Nationally, home values have risen very strongly after COVID. Some cities went absolutely bananas. Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, parts of regional Australia. Some of those conditions look less like sustainable growth and more like a should sugar-lighted toddler running laps around a birthday party. Fun for a while, impossible forever. And after the post-COVID property sugar hit, a breather was not just possible, it was over due. Because the last five years definitely haven't been normal. They weren't

Starting point is 00:15:13 even normal wearing a party hat. They were turbocharged by cheap money, fear of missing out, lifestyle relocation, work from home shifts, low listings, construction bottlenecks, huge saving buffers and a country that suddenly decided that every spare bedroom needed to become something else and this is where the numbers matter. Since the end of 2019 rounded house price growth has been roughly 40% up in Sydney, Melbourne has been up around 15%, Brisbane up around 90%, Adelaide being that at 95%, Perth up around 110%, Hobart after a decade of growth around 35%, Canberra up around 30% and Darwin up around 45% and rising. So I noticed a huge variation by location which is normal and a quick relativity warning here because percentages can

Starting point is 00:16:10 be sneaky little mongrels if you don't look at the starting price. Sydney and Melbourne generally started this period with much higher median prices than many other capitals so a lower percentage gain in Sydney or Melbourne can still represent a very meaningful dollar value increase. A 15% gain on a more expensive property can still be a large chunk of real equity. And a 40% gain on a higher priced Sydney asset can still be a massive dollar outcome. So don't just compare percentage growth like you're comparing apples with apples. Sometimes you're comparing apples with watermelons wearing auction paddles. But here's the bigger point. As Sydney and Melbourne became less affordable, borrowing capacity started pushing buyers to ask a very simple question. Where can

Starting point is 00:16:56 my money still get me a quality asset? And that's fuelled what I call the great affordability race. Because investors and homebuyers are no longer stuck buying only in their backyard. We now live in a borderless property research world. You can compare suburbs, rents, vacancy rates, demographics, sale history, infrastructure, school zones, street views, flood maps, walkability and growth trends from your laptop while sitting at home in your trackies pretending that you're doing research instead of avoiding the washing. Now that access to data has changed behaviour so when affordability locked more buyers out of Sydney and Melbourne price points capital started flowing towards Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and other markets where buyers could still secure better value, better

Starting point is 00:17:42 yields or a more accessible entry price. That doesn't mean that those markets were magically better in every street or every suburb, but it does explain why the affordability gap became a growth magnet. Money goes where it can still move. And when buying capacity gets squeezed, buyers don't stop wanting quality property. They start hunting for where quality property is still within reach. That's why the post-COVID boom wasn't just a property boom. It was also a affordability migration from backyard thinking to borderless buying from where do i live to where can my money work hardest and that's another reason why you need to be careful with national media headlines they blur the very thing that matters most relative value buying capacity

Starting point is 00:18:34 price point access and where demand is actually moving so let's pause here because if you're in Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth, you haven't just seen a normal cycle. You've seen they use almost double or more than double in around five years. Now that's extraordinary. That's not business as usual. That's not the long-term property train moving at normal speed. That's the property train with a rocket strapped to the back of it and the conductor yelling, hold my beer. In some of those markets, that works out to annualise growth in the order of 10% to 12% per year through the post-COVID surge. Compare that with a long-term house value growth average of around 6.8% per year and suddenly the current calling looks very different. It doesn't look like the end of

Starting point is 00:19:23 property, it looks like the end of an abnormal sugar hit. And frankly, good. Because 10% to 12% per annum, growth sounds wonderful when you own the asset, but it's not sustainable forever. If property kept growing at 10% to 12% per year indefinitely, first-home buyers would need a deposit, a second job, a rich uncle, and possibly a minor miracle in a high-vis vest. So a return toward more normal sustainable growth conditions isn't a disaster. It's actually healthy. If quality residential property settles back toward that long-term 6% to 7% per year growth range over a property cycle, that's still a very strong wealth building outcome. Because at 7.2% growth, a property roughly doubles every 10 years. And at 6.8%, which is the long-term average,

Starting point is 00:20:12 that's not far behind. So when the media says some markets may soften by 5%, 8%, or even 10%, the first question you need to ask is, down from what? Because a 5% to 10% pullback, which is normal after a 40% rise definitely isn't a crash a 5 to 10% pullback after a 90% rise isn't a cliff and a 5 to 10 10% pullback after a 110% rise is definitely not the bottom falling out it's the market taking its shoes off after running a marathon or in some cities after sprinting 100 meters and thongs while carrying a bunning sausage and a pre-approval lever So the real story isn't property stopped working. The real story is properties moving from abnormal turbo growth back towards normal sustainable compounding. And normal compounding is still

Starting point is 00:21:09 how serious wealth gets built. Because if a location has just risen 40%, 80% or 110%, a modest pullback is not the end of the property world. It's the market taking a long overdue breather. And that's important. A correction in sentiment doesn't automatically mean a collapse in fundamentals. Media-driven sentiment can change fast, but fundamentals move much slower. Sentiments are a toddler with a juice box. Fundamentals are the concrete slab. And the slab is still there. Australia still has a massive structural housing shortage. We still have population growth. We still have migration, immigration, even if the pace changes. We still have smaller households, more single-person homes, more separated families, more ageing Australians

Starting point is 00:21:57 living independently, more renters, more students, more workers, more households needing their own roof. And that matters because housing demand is not just about how many heads arrive at the airport, it's about how many households those heads form. One family of five may need one home, Five single person households need five homes. Same number of humans, very different housing demand. So even if migration slows a tad, housing pressure doesn't magically vanish because smaller households still need homes. Separated families often need two homes. Old Australians living independently still need homes. Students need rentals. Workers need rentals. New families need homes. Downsizers need homes. And none of that supply appears

Starting point is 00:22:44 because a politician stands at a lectern and says the word affordability with a concerned forehead. Homes take land, planning, approvals, infrastructure, finance, builders, materials, labour, time, and occasionally the patience of a saint with a clipboard and a council login. So the deeper issue hasn't gone away. We still don't have enough of the right homes in the right locations, the right price points for the Aussies like you and I who need them. That scarcity doesn't guarantee your property goes up. It doesn't protect bad assets. It doesn't rescue poor selection. And it certainly doesn't turn the cookie cutter investment box into an oversupplied fringe estate and turn that into a blue chip miracle just because the brochure

Starting point is 00:23:30 has a smiling couple and a eucalyptus tree. But scarcity does put a long-term support under quality housing and quality locations. And that's where you need to keep your focus. Not the national medium, not the panic headline, not the manufactured story that gets slapped onto every daily price movement like the media does with shares. You know the routine. The share market goes up and by lunchtime someone has invented a reason. The share market goes down and by dinner someone has invented a different reason. Most of it is post-game commentary wearing a serious tie. And property is similar. The media moves, then everyone rushes to explain it as though every house in Australia is a perfectly identical packet of cornflakes on a supermarket shelf. But property is not a

Starting point is 00:24:14 perfect commodity. Every property is unique. Different land, different street, different aspect, different floor plan, different noise, different slope, different neighbours, different school zone, different emotional pool, different buyer depth, different scarcity and different resale appeal. A family home on scarce land as a tightly held suburb is not the same thing as an investigator apartment in an oversupplied tower where every balcony looks directly into someone else's regret. So when I say property conditions are cooling, I'm not talking about one magical national market. I'm talking about markets within markets, within streets, within property types, within price points. Some will soften, some will hold, some will keep growing.

Starting point is 00:24:56 Some will get found out, and quality will matter more than ever. Now, let's talk about growth, because this is where I know many of you are nervous. You're not just worried about tax, you're worried about long-term growth. You're thinking, what if property's had its run? What if the budget changes are the straw that breaks the camel's back on top of the war in the Middle East, inflation, and rising rates that collectively dampen growth for years? what if lower growth rates cost more than the tax changes that's a very smart question and it deserves straight answers not just worried about you're not just worried about tax you're worried

Starting point is 00:25:35 about whether property values still have enough future growth left in them to make the whole exercise worth the pain the patience the paperwork and the occasional desire to throw your loan statement to the nearest body of water and that's a very smart concern because over 10 to 15 years the growth rate can matter even more than the tax rate. A bigger tax bite hurts, no question. But stepping off the growth escalator altogether because the headline scared you can hurt a lot more. So let's put some history under the hood. CoreLogic's long-run data has shown that Australian house values growing around the high 6% range over long periods with one 25-year review showing national house prices at around 6.8% per annum and units around 5.9% per annum.

Starting point is 00:26:21 Another 30-year review showed combined capital city house values rising more than 450% over three decades, with units rising a little over 300%. And the reason houses generally did better was not because they had prettier curtains. It was largely because scarce land in high-demand locations tends to compound harder than more easily replicated stock. That's the point. Not all property is equal. Not all growth is equal. And not all mediums tell the truth that you need to hear. CoreLogic has also warned that the old idea

Starting point is 00:26:56 that every property automatically doubles every 10 years is too simplistic, and I agree. Broad markets don't neatly double on the calendar reminder like your car, Red Joe. But the rule of 72 still gives you a useful mental picture. At 7.2% growth, an asset roughly doubles in value every 10 years. At 6% growth, it doubles in about 12 years. At 5% growth, it takes closer to 14 to 15 years.

Starting point is 00:27:22 So the question isn't, will every property double every decade? It won't. The better question is, can the right property in the right location with scarcity, owner-occupied demand, income support and limited future supply still produce long-term growth around the 6% to 7% range over a property cycle? In my view, yes. not guaranteed never guaranteed but well supported by history scarcity bank behavior and australia's ongoing housing supply problem so yes lower long-term growth matters enormously in fact over

Starting point is 00:27:59 10 to 15 years the difference between five percent growth and seven percent growth can be far more important than one single tax rule so let's use a simple picture because this is where the growth maths gets very real. If a $750,000 property grows at around 6.8% for 15 years, which is broadly in line with the long-term national house value range that we've been talking about, it becomes roughly just over $2 million. Now, if that same property only grows at 6%, the end value is closer to $1.8 million. That's around $200,000 less. And at 5.5%, it's around $1.67 million. That's more than $300,000 less than the higher growth case. At 5%, it's closer to $1.56 million and that's roughly $450,000 less. So you're right, the growth rate matters a lot and that's exactly why you mustn't

Starting point is 00:28:55 abandon a quality residential property just because the headlines have decided to wear a crash helmet. The danger is not that property returns to normal growth. Normal growth is still very powerful. A quality property growing at 6% to 7% over 10 to 15 years can still build very serious wealth. The danger is buying the wrong asset, or worse, owning the right long-term asset and then selling it because short-term sentiment made you feel like the sky was falling. That's like jumping off the train because I slowed down at a station. You may feel safer for the five minutes, but then you're standing on the platform holding a sandwich, watching your future pull away without you. So yes, Ben and every other smart investor thinking the same thing, you're right

Starting point is 00:29:38 to focus on future growth. But the answer is not to give up on property. The answer is to stop buying average property because in a lower, more normal, more selective growth environment, asset quality matters more. Scarcity matters more. Owner-occupier appeal matters more. Land value matters more. Location matters more. And holding long enough for compounding to do its quiet, boring, beautiful work matters most. That's why you don't want to accidentally step off the growth train because a headline scared you onto the platform.

Starting point is 00:30:12 A slower horse can still win the wealth race if it keeps running for 15 years. But if you jump off because the crowd screams, you don't finish the race at all. And that's the danger right now. Not that growth may return to normal. Normal's fine. Normal's powerful. Normal is where long-term wealth is actually built. If quality residential property gets back

Starting point is 00:30:33 to more sustainable 6% to 7% long-term growth conditions, that's still very strong over a 10 to 15-year horizon because compounding doesn't need fireworks. It needs time. It needs consistency. It needs an asset worth compounding. It needs enough cash flow to hold the asset when the headlines start wearing clown shoes.

Starting point is 00:30:53 and it needs you to stay in the game. That's wealth by stealth. Go for growth while you can, build the equity, let time, leverage, scarcity and compounding do their quiet work. Then as your life state changes and your freedom number comes into focus, progressively convert growth into cashflow like commercial ETFs, income assets, lower debt and stronger buffers,

Starting point is 00:31:16 which is lifestyle funding. That's the game. And that's why you need to be very careful about letting a short-term confidence correction trick you into abandoning a long-term growth engine because the current overstretched softening is actually healthy. It'll remove some of the froth.

Starting point is 00:31:33 It'll slow down the FOMO. It'll thin the crowds. It'll push out the sugar rush investors who thought property only ever went up because their entire investment career started after COVID. It'll also expose the shonks, the spruikers, the one-hit-one-to-buyers agents

Starting point is 00:31:48 and the property peacocks His strategy was mostly volume, pressure, and a well-lit Instagram reel. Good. Let them go. Serious investors don't need a stampede. They need space. They need time. They need negotiation.

Starting point is 00:32:05 They need due diligence. They need a clear head. They need to find the right asset in the right location at the right price with the right structure that they can then hold long enough to build the outcome. So my message to you right now is this. don't confuse a cooling in confidence with the death of residential property don't confuse a medium price wobble with the collapse of scarcity and don't confuse a budget tax bite with the end of long-term wealth creation the budget may have changed the rules it may have made some pathways

Starting point is 00:32:37 harder it may have made cash flow more important it may have made asset selection more critical but it hasn't changed the principles scarcity still matters quality still matters structure still matters, holdability matters more, time still matters, and growth still matters. So the real question isn't, is property dead? It isn't. The real question is, which property in which location at which price, with which structure, for which purpose, over which time frame, will help you build your strongest usable net nest egg? And that's exactly where we're going to go next, because the budget fog has made property investing feel way more complicated than it actually is. It's made smart investors second-guess themselves.

Starting point is 00:33:21 It's made some Aussies wonder whether they should just pay down debt, buy ETFs, hide in super, or wait until every politician and economist finally agrees on something, which is commonly known as waiting forever. So now let's clear the fog. Let's talk about what the proposed budget changes really do to your cash flow, your holding power, and your next move. Now, before we get into the dollars and percentages,

Starting point is 00:33:46 I want to call out one of the biggest problems with this whole budget mess. It's not just the tax, it's the fog. Because the proposed changes have made property investing feel way more complicated than it actually is. More expensive, more uncertain, more like a financial Rubik's Cube that's been dropped in a blender with a tax return, a Senate hearing and a politician's talking points. And when something feels confusing, you naturally start looking for something simpler. You start thinking, maybe I should just pay down the home loan. Maybe I should just buy ETFs.

Starting point is 00:34:19 Maybe super's easier. Maybe commercial's cleaner. Maybe property's had its run. Maybe I've missed the boat. Maybe I should sit still until the smoke clears. And all that's very understandable. Because when the media keeps shouting crash, the government keeps spitting fairness,

Starting point is 00:34:36 and every commentator with a ring light suddenly becomes a tax policy expert, it's easy to feel like you've walked into a monopoly game where someone has changed the rules, stolen the instructions and put a hotel on your nervous system. But here's the key. The perception of complexity is often worse than the actual decision. Yes, the rules may be changing. Yes, the tax bite might be bigger. Yes, holding costs may rise. Yes, you need to be sharper. But the pathway hasn't disappeared. The map hasn't burst into flames. Residential property hasn't been wheeled into the museum next to fax machines, videos, doors and honest election promises. What has changed is the margin for laziness and that's

Starting point is 00:35:20 important because in the old world too many investors could get away with buying an average asset because the annual negative gearing refund helped kiss the bruise better every year. It didn't make a bad property good but it softened the pain. In the new world for future established residential property, that annual tax question may no longer arrive in the same way. The tax office may not turn up every year with a little financial pillow and a sympathetic cup of tea. So now the property has to stand more firmly on its own feet, and so do you. That means buying better, funding better, structuring better, buffering better, and holding better. Because the winning investor from here won't just be the one who can buy, it'll be the one who can hold.

Starting point is 00:36:07 That's the grown-up table, and yes, some investors won't like that. Some will leave, some will chase the next shiny thing, some will follow the next online expert who discovers a brand new passion for whatever asset class pays them a commission this month. But for you, that can be good news, because when the crowd thins, strategy breathes. When FOMO fades, negotiation returns. And when the get-rich-quick noise gets a little quieter, the serious investor can finally hear the numbers. Now I also want to be direct about the government's role in this fog because I don't mind a government having a positive view. I don't mind a government saying this is what we believe, this is what we're proposing, this is the modelling, this is the

Starting point is 00:36:49 trade-off and this is why we think it's worth doing. That's democracy. We can agree, we can disagree, we can debate it. What I do mind is telling Australians one thing before an election then doing another thing completely and doing a backflip after it, then dressing the whole thing up in fairness language while trying to rush complex tax changes through the system without enough time for proper consultation, scrutiny and unintended consequences being generally understood. That's dangerous because housing policy is not a microwave meal.

Starting point is 00:37:24 You don't just punch in 30 seconds, press start and hope the middle isn't still frozen. When you change negative gearing, capital gains tax, trust arrangements, company structures and investment incentives, you're not just moving numbers around on a Canberra whiteboard. You're changing behaviour. You're changing confidence. You're changing supply. You're changing risk appetite.

Starting point is 00:37:45 You're changing whether ordinary Australians feel it's worth sacrificing today to build independence tomorrow. And when policy's rushed, the unintended consequences often walk in the back door wearing steel-capped boots. the government says this is about fairness intergenerational equity housing affordability helping young people but if the changes reduce profit rental supply scare off moment down investors push rents higher reduce aspiration and making it harder for everyday Australians to build their own future then the policy may do the exact opposite of the label on the tin and that's the bit that really frustrates me because we Aussies aren't stupid you're not stupid. You can smell spin when it's been left in the sun too long. You don't need word bingo.

Starting point is 00:38:31 You need honesty. You need clarity. You need time to understand what's being proposed and you need practical guidance on what to do next. So that's what we're going to do from here. We're not pretending the changes don't matter. They do. We're not pretending the final rules are locked. They're not. We're not pretending every property still works. It doesn't. It never has. We're cutting through the fog and asking the practical question, what does this mean for your cash flow, your holdability and your long-term net nest egg? So let's start with cash flow, because this is where the budget stops being political theatre

Starting point is 00:39:07 and becomes your household kitchen table budget. In the old world, if an investment property lost $20,000 a year on paper and you're on a high marginal tax rate, the annual tax refund could soften that loss by roughly $7,000, $8,000 or $9,000 a year. That's around $150 to $200 odd a week of cash live relief. Not exactly a private island, but enough to matter. Enough to help with groceries, fuel, insurance, school costs, rates, repairs, the dog's vet bill that somehow costs more than your first car.

Starting point is 00:39:40 In the proposed new world, for future established residential property, that annual relief may be delayed. The loss isn't gone, it can be carried forward and applied later against a future residential capital gain when you sell it. but the cash flow problem moves to now. That's the thing, because a deduction that you can access later doesn't pay this month's interest bill.

Starting point is 00:40:03 Future tax relief doesn't help when the bank wants real money on Tuesday. So in practical terms, some future established property investors may feel like the property has become around $100 to $150 to $200 odd a week heavier to hold, depending on the price point and the details. Now, that's not fatal, but it's meaningful.

Starting point is 00:40:22 that's the difference between feeling comfortable and feeling stretched that's the difference between investing calmly and checking your banking app at 2 30 a.m like you're tracking a hostage negotiation and that's why i keep talking about a war chest not a vague buffer not we'll be right not the financial equivalent of putting a tea towel under a leaking roof but a proper separate investment purpose equity loan facility ideally interest only where appropriate, properly structured, properly separated, properly documented and used only for investment purposes with advice from your broker and your accountant. That matters because if you already own a home or investment property with usable equity, you may be able to create a

Starting point is 00:41:04 separate investment line split or equity facility that acts like a rainy day money tank. You don't have to spend it all. You don't pay interest on what you don't use. But when the property needs support, when rates rise, when a tenant leaves, when maintenance pops up or when the annual tax cushion is no longer arriving on schedule, you can draw from that investment war chest rather than chewing through your salary, your savings, your lifestyle and your sanity. And because the purpose of the borrowed money is investment related, the interest may be deductible subject of course to getting proper tax advice. That's why loan purpose matters. The tax deductibility usually follows the use of the funds, not just the property user security. So don't muddy the

Starting point is 00:41:46 waters. Don't mix personal spending and investment spending. Don't turn your war chest into a holiday fund, a jet ski fund, or a we accidentally renovated the kitchen because the tiles look sad fund. Keep it clean. Keep it separate. Keep it purposeful. Because this is how you protect your household cash flow while preserving your ability to hold a growth asset through the wobbles. that's the key the property may not be broken it may just be hungrier and hungry assets need a pantry not panic so from here the question is not just can I buy it the question is can I hold it can I fund it can I survive the middle years can I keep enough oxygen in the tank so I'm not forced to sell a good asset at a bad time because that's where too many investors come on stack

Starting point is 00:42:31 they buy based on entry but wealth is built through holding buying's the wedding holding is the marriage and anyone who's been married longer than five minutes knows that the wedding isn't the hard part the hard part is staying together when the dishwasher breaks the dog throws up on the rug and someone says did you remember to pay the rates that's property the money is made in the hold now that brings us to the centerpiece of today's show the net nest egg later. Because once you understand that the budget mainly changes tax timing, cash flow and holdability, you can stop asking the wrong question. The wrong question is, which option pays the lowest tax? The better question is, which option builds the strongest usable net nest egg?

Starting point is 00:43:19 Usable net nest egg. Not headline wealth, not brochure wealth, not my accountant's smile wealth, not my tax bill was smaller so I must be winning wealth actual usable wealth after tax, after debt, after risk, after time, after structure and after all the little financial termites have had their chew because I'd rather pay tax on a bigger outcome than win a tax rate argument on a smaller one or put another way, tax is the bite, net nest egg is the meal and I'd rather pay tax on a bigger meal

Starting point is 00:43:53 than brag about a smaller tax bill while going home hungry. So let's make this real. And a quick but important guardrail before we get into the numbers. This is general information only. It's not personal financial, tax, accounting, legal or credit advice. The examples are broad brush illustrations to help you understand the direction and the relative scale of different options. Your outcome will depend on your income, loan structure, ownership entity,

Starting point is 00:44:18 tax position, property type, location, holding costs, final legislation, and the advice you get from your own qualified professionals. So treat these numbers as a wind vane, not a weather forecast. So let's use one broad, simple example. Not personal advice, not accountant ready, not every cost included. And again, just the wind vane, not the weather forecast. So we start with around $150,000 of usable cash or equity. That could be savings, or for many investors,

Starting point is 00:44:48 it could be usable equity released from an existing property through a separate investment facility or war chest. And we compare what that money may broadly do over 15 years across different pathways. Your own home loan, ETFs and shares, commercial property, SMF property, existing residential, new-build residential, and future established residential property under the proposed rules. Now, before we rank them, remember this. The real power of residential property is not just tax. It's leverage.

Starting point is 00:45:17 It's asset control. It's the ability for ordinary Australians to control a larger asset with a smaller amount of their own money. If you put $150,000 into ETFs or index funds, you generally control just $150,000 of ETFs and investment index funds. Good tool, useful tool. I use them. I like them. But it's a very different engine. If you use $150,000 of cash or usable equity to help control a $750,000 dollar residential property, your growth exposure is completely different. Not just investing in the deposit, you're controlling the whole asset. And that's why property has historically been such a powerful mainstream wealth building engine for everyday Aussies. There's also a reason that

Starting point is 00:46:00 banks are prepared to lend up to 80%, 90%, and sometimes even 95% against residential property. Banks aren't charities. They're very good at making money and very allergic to losing it. So when they consistently lend large amounts against Australian residential property, that tells you something important. It tells you that they've got confidence in the long-term security of the asset class as collateral. Now, that doesn't make property risk-free.

Starting point is 00:46:27 Nothing's risk-free, but it does help explain why residential property remains one of the most accessible growth engines available to hard-working Aussies. So let's climb the ladder. And I want to make this as sticky as possible because this is the bit that I want you to remember when the next headline says property investor smashed or negative gearing changes kill the

Starting point is 00:46:48 market or just buy ETFs and never speak to a plumber again. That all sounds tempting but let's look at what the numbers actually suggest. Now we're using around 150 grand of cash or usable equity over 15 years. For residential property that 150 grand helps control a $750,000 property. for ETFs it controls 150,000 VTFs for commercial with lower lending ratios it may control around 430,000 a commercial property for SMS at property it may control around $500,000 inside super again because of more conservative lending principles that first point is the whole ball game what does your money control because growth compounds on the asset that you actually own or control. So here's the latter. At the safest, most offensive end, paying down your own home loan

Starting point is 00:47:45 with 150 grand may save around $135,000 of simple interest over 15 years at a 6% loan interest rate. That's roughly a 90% simple saving on your starting money. Very sensible, very safe, very sleep friendly, but mostly defensive. It protects the castle. It doesn't usually build the next one. And for some people, absolutely the right move. But it is mostly defensive. It protects, it reduces risk and improves certainty. What it usually doesn't do is multiply your exposure to a larger growth asset base. So paying down your homeowner is like putting on a very good seatbelt. Important, smart, potentially life-saving, but it doesn't turn the car into a rocket. Next, ETFs and shares. $150,000 invested directly at around 7% for 15

Starting point is 00:48:37 years may grow to around $414,000. After broad tax assumptions, in our example, the gain kept may be around $174,000. That's about a 115% return on your starting money. Excellent tool, liquid, simple, useful, great for deposit building. Great later for income drawdowns and lifestyle funding but generally without mainstream residential style leverage the engine's much smaller. It's a very good vehicle but it's not towing the same trailer. Then there's commercial property with around 150 grand of equity and a more conservative 65% lending ratio you may control around a $430,000 of commercial property and at around 4% growth over 15 years our broad example suggests around $280,000 of gain kept or about a 185% return on starting equity.

Starting point is 00:49:31 Commercial can be terrific, particularly later when you want income, but it usually needs more cash, more lower leverage, more vacancy buffer and a stronger stomach when a tenant leaves and the property starts echoing like a haunted warehouse with a rates notice. So commercial can be excellent. I like commercial for the right investor often later in the journey especially when you're moving from growth towards cash flow. Commercial can offer higher yields, longer leases and stronger income potential but it also usually needs more cash, lower leverage, stronger vacancy buffers and a very different risk appetite. Commercial is not residential property wearing a blazer. It's a very different beast. Useful, powerful but not usually the first growth engine

Starting point is 00:50:16 for an early stage investor trying to build equity as quickly and safely as possible. Then we've got SMSF property. With around $150,000 of super equity and around 70% lending, you may control about a $500,000 of property. At the same 6.8% growth over 15 years and with concessional super tax treatment, our broad examples are just around $757,000 of gain kept or about a 500% return on starting equity after concessional super tax treatment in accumulation phase. And the tax rate can look very attractive. In accumulation phase, the effective CGT rate

Starting point is 00:50:53 may be around 10% for assets held longer than 12 months. In pension phase, it may be lower again or potentially 0%. Now, that looks very attractive. And for the right person at the right stage with the right balance, the right liquidity, the right contribution strategy and the right retirement plan, SMSF property can be powerful. But there's a catch. The money's inside super. It's locked up until access rules allow. So SMSF may win the tax rate race, but not always the lifestyle access race. It can be brilliant as a retirement vault,

Starting point is 00:51:27 but a vault is still a vault. Very safe, very useful, but you can't buy dinner with money that you're not allowed to touch yet. Now let's move to the residential property engine and this is where the comparison becomes really important. Using the same 150 grand of starting equity but now allowing you to control a $750,000 residential asset and it can be even higher if you borrow up to 90%. At the 6.8% growth over 15 years that property becomes roughly $2.01 million. The nominal capital gain is about $1.26 million. Under the old 50% CGT discount rules, a grandfathered existing residential property in our example may pay around $297,000 of CGT at the top marginal tax rate. That means the investor keeps about $965,000 of the capital

Starting point is 00:52:21 gain after CGT. The tax bite is around 23% to 24% of the nominal gain. And the capital gain return on the original $150,000 of equity is around 640%. Now, let's translate that into simple magnitude. That old world grandfather residential outcome is roughly 7.1 times higher than the home loan pay down outcome, 5.5 times higher than the ETF, 3.4 times higher than the commercial capital growth outcome, and around 1.3 times the broad SMSF property outcome. That's the power of quality residential property with mainstream leverage. So same $150,000 starting point, different engine, and very different destination. not because tax disappeared it didn't but because the asset controlled was much larger now future

Starting point is 00:53:18 established residential under the proposed rules is clearly more heavily taxed but carry forward losses i'm sorry before carry forward losses the tax part is the in this same broad example could rise to around 424 000 that's around 34 percent of the nominal gain so compared with the old 23 to 24% of effective tax part, you're looking at roughly 10 percentage points more tax on the nominal capital gain. In dollar terms, that's about $127,000 more CGT in this example, or roughly 40 to 45% more CGT dollars than the old world treatment. Now that's real, that's not garnish. That's a proper bite out of your sausage roll. But even after that bigger tax bite, the investor still keeps around $838,000 of capital gain after CGT. That's still

Starting point is 00:54:14 roughly a 560% capital gain return on the starting $150,000 of equity. So yes, the government takes a bigger bite, but it hasn't removed the mill. That $838,000 future established residential outcome is still roughly 6.2 times higher than the home loan paydown outcome, 4.8 times higher than the ETF outcome, three times higher than the commercial capital growth and about 1.1 times higher than the broad SMSF property outcome. That's the number the crash headlines don't want you to hear because 560% over 15 years isn't dead. It's not even limping. It's still a serious long-term growth engine. It just needs more fuel, more oxygen and better steering. Now what happens that the carried forward losses are available to reduce the taxable residential gain when you sell.

Starting point is 00:55:08 That's where some of you may ask, hang on, Bushy, why does future established property with carried forward losses look like it performs slightly better than grandfathered property in that example? Great question. And I want to explain it clearly. It's not because future established property is magically better. It's not because the new rules are better for everyone. and it's definitely not a reason to ignore cash flow pain. The gross property growth is exactly the same. The asset is exactly the same size. The difference is the way the model treats the accumulated losses.

Starting point is 00:55:43 If that property loses around $20,000 a year for 15 years, that could create around $300,000 of carried forward losses. If those losses can be applied against the future residential capital going on sale, they may significantly reduce the taxable gain. In our simplified example the final after-tax outcome can end up closer to or in some modelling even slightly above the old grandfathered outcome. That's why you might see a number around $977,000 kept after tax or around 650% return on starting equity, which means that that outcome is roughly 7.2 times the home loan paydown outcome, 5.6 times higher than the ETF result, 3.5 times higher than the commercial capital growth outcome, and around

Starting point is 00:56:33 1.3 times higher than the broad SMSF property result. And yes, that can look slightly better than the grandfathered example, but don't misunderstand it. It's not saying that the new rules are better. It's saying that the timing changes. And that's the catch. And it's a big catch. You had to fund the middle years. You had to carry the annual cash flow pain. You had to survive without the yearly refund. You had to hold. So the benefit isn't destroyed. It's delayed. But delayed tax relief doesn't pay this year's interest bill. That's why the war chest matters. that's why buffers matter that's why borrowing below your limit matters that's why asset quality matters and that's why holdability is now your investor's superpower so please don't hear 650%

Starting point is 00:57:25 gain and think oh beauty no problem that'd be like hearing a surgeon say the operation went well then deciding to do your own appendix with a butter knife the modeling shows that future established residential property may still produce a very strong long-term nest egg but only if you could hold it long enough to get there. Now where does qualifying new builds it? Potentially very strongly because if it qualifies negative gearing may still apply annually and on sale you may be able to choose between the 50% CGD discount or the indexation and minimum tax method depending on which produces the better outcome. So a generally high quality, well located, fairly priced new build may sit in that 600 plus return on equity range in our broad example. That's massive.

Starting point is 00:58:15 That broadly means that a gain kept somewhere around $900,000 plus on the starting $150,000 equity if the asset quality and growth assumptions stack up. And that sort of outcome will be roughly 6.7 times better than the home loan pay down outcome, 5.2 times higher than the ETF result, 3.2 times higher than the commercial capital growth outcome, and around 1.2 times better than the broad SMS asset property outcome, but only if the asset itself works. If the developer margin has eaten your future growth, if the location is weak, if everyone else can build the same thing next door and the tax tailwind may simply help you fly in the wrong direction more comfortably. So I reinforce that qualifying new build may sit in that 600% plus return on

Starting point is 00:59:05 equity range if the asset quality stacks up. And that phrase is doing the heavy lifting, if the asset quality stacks up. Because new build may be better treated, but it's not automatically better. A good new build in the right location with the right land value, the right scarcity, the right design, the right tenant appeal, the right builder, the right price and the right funding can be a terrific post-budget opportunity. But a bad new build in the wrong location with too much investor stock, thin land value, weak resale demand and a developer margin fatter than a Christmas pavlova isn't a strategy, it's tax glitter. And tax glitter still gets stuck in the your carpet. So let's make the lattice really simple in a summary. At around 90% simple interest

Starting point is 00:59:55 saving, paying down your home loan is the safest lane. Important, defensive, sleep friendly, but not usually the biggest growth multiplier. At around 115% after tax gain, in a broad example, ETFs and shares are excellent liquid tools. Great for diversification, great for deposit building, great for future income, but different engine. At around 185% growth, commercial property can be a strong income style tool, especially later, but usually with lower leverage, bigger entry costs and very different risk. At around 500% increase, SMS property can be powerful inside the super environment, but access is restricted and the structure must suit your retirement plan. At around 560% future established residential before carried forward

Starting point is 01:00:43 losses is hard to hit but still very much alive and still very powerful. And at around 600% plus quality qualifying new build may be one of the more attractive post-budget residential loans if it's generally good. At around 640% improvement grandfathered existing residential remains very strong under old world treatment. And in the simplified example, future established residential with carry forward losses applied at sale may come in at around 650% increase, but with the biggest cash flow warning label stuck to the front. So what's your memory hook here? Well, here it is. Your home line is a safety blanket. ETFs are the liquid toolkit. Commercial property is the income machine. SMSF is the retirement vault. And quality residential property is still

Starting point is 01:01:35 the mainstream growth engine. Each tool has a job. The mistake is using the wrong tool at the wrong time. You don't use a hammer to brush your teeth, at least not twice anyway. And you don't use an income tool when your real need is growth. You don't use a locked up retirement structure when your real need is accessible freedom before Super 8. And you don't use tax treatment as the main reason to buy a dud asset with a shiny brochure and a sunset photo that looks like it was stolen from a honeymoon catalogue. And you don't use a low-tax asset if it leaves you with a smaller,

Starting point is 01:02:13 less accessible or less useful outcome. So the conclusion is clear here. Quality residential property where the grandfathered existing, carefully selected qualifying new build or even future established property that you can generally afford to hold, still deserves its place as one of the strongest mainstream growth engines for everyday Australians. Even post-budget, even with a bigger tax part, even with higher holding costs, even with more modelling required. Because the residential engine isn't powered by tax alone, it's powered by scarcity, demand, time, income growth, land value, asset quality,

Starting point is 01:02:48 tenant contribution bank leverage and your ability to hold tax can help tax can hurt but tax isn't the whole engine it's just one part of the drive train so don't rank investments by tax line rank them by asset exposure leverage growth access cash flow risk tax timing and usable net nest egg because financial freedom isn't built by paying the least tax it's built by creating the strongest usable outcome after tax, debt, risk and time. That's your wind vane. That's your ready rechner. And that's why quality residential property is still in the game. Not as a lazy default, not as a guaranteed ticket, not as something that you buy because some bloke on a webinar said the suburb is about to pop, but as a carefully

Starting point is 01:03:41 selected, properly funded, well-held, long-term growth engine that can still help you build your best nest. Now, there's one specific line that deserves more attention from here, new build. Because if done properly with the right specialist team, new build has the potential to tick a lot of post-budget boxes. But if done badly, it can be a disaster wearing fresh paint. So let's go there next. Because from here, new build is going to become one of the most talked about investment lines in Australia. And for good reason. Under the proposed rules, qualifying new bills are clearly being given more favourable tax treatment. Negative gearing may still apply against your income. And on sale, you've got the flexibility around the CGT method that gives you

Starting point is 01:04:25 the better outcome. Now that's powerful. That's very valuable. And when it's attached to the right asset and the right location with the right structure, it can be a very attractive post-budget opportunity. But here's the warning label in big black letters. New build is better treated, not automatically better. And that difference is everything. Because whenever the government points investor capital toward one lane, the marketing machines start warming up like a food truck outside a football final. Suddenly, everyone becomes a new build specialist. Last month, they were selling established interstate houses. This month, they're selling house and land packages. Next month, who knows? Maybe boutique warehouses, self-made super deals,

Starting point is 01:05:06 or imported alpaca villages with limited release, depreciation benefits. The product changes, the urgency stays, the fat commission model generally doesn't. And you end up paying for it without knowing it because there's no such thing as a free lunch. So be careful, because the right new build can be excellent. The wrong new build can be a disaster wearing fresh paint. And fresh paint isn't a strategy, it's a smell. Now, you know I'm not saying this as someone who's always avoided new build. quite the opposite. I have been and continue to be a big fan of the right kind of new build for a

Starting point is 01:05:41 very long time. Not because it was trendy, not because the budget suddenly made it look shiny, but because done well, new build can tick a lot of very important boxes. Before I moved into property strategy and finance, I spent 17 years as an architect and project manager. So I understand the upside of good design, good orientation, good functionality, good land use, good build quality, good long-term owner-occupier appeal. But I've also seen enough construction war stories to know that a builder's promise and a finished product can sometimes be distant cousins who only wave at Christmas.

Starting point is 01:06:14 So done properly, a quality new build can offer much lower stamp duty, saving you thousands, full depreciation deductions on capital, fixture and fittings, much lower holding costs, lower early maintenance, stronger tenant appeal, improved energy efficiency, modern livability, better compliance, stronger resale appeal and sometimes the ability to manufacture equity on completion rather than waiting for the market to do every ounce of the lifting if

Starting point is 01:06:41 you manage it well. That's why I've liked good new build strategy for years and pre-COVID I did them myself and helped many others do the same. Not because it was tax effective, because it could be investment effective. The tax benefit was the gravy, not the roast. And now, after this budget, the gravy bowl has been completely refilled. But, and you can probably hear the but pulling into your driveway, new build is not a game for the careless.

Starting point is 01:07:12 It's a very different pathway with different risks, different contracts, different finance, different timelines, different due diligence, different feasibility, different headaches. And if you buy the wrong new build in the wrong area for the wrong reason, you may simply end up with a shiny tax-effective lemon parked beside 400 nearly identical lemons at the edge of a roundabout that nobody asked for. So yes, the right new build may now become one of the strongest post-budget opportunity lanes, but only if it's done properly, with a specialist team, with a generally strong location,

Starting point is 01:07:42 with real demand, with scarce land, with strong owner-occupier appeal, with a sensible price, with a credible builder, with controlled build risk, time delivery and quality, with finance that works with enough buffer and with a finished product that will still be desirable when it's no longer new because that's the test not is it new but will someone still want it when the new car smell is worn off and the letterbox has collected three years of council rates if the answer is yes and the numbers work then you build may absolutely deserve a seat in your post-budget plan if the answer is no then be very careful because a tax advantage attached to a poor asset is like putting racing stripes on a shopping trolley. It may look faster but it

Starting point is 01:08:28 still wobbles in the car park. And I'll unpack this properly in an upcoming episode with a specialist guest who spent years working high performing new build property because this deserves more than just a quick mention. You need to know what good new build looks like, what poor new build looks like, what locations work, what property types work, what teams you need, what traps to avoid, and how to make sure you're buying a quality growth asset that happens to receive better tax treatment, not just buying a tax benefit with a front door. So keep an ear out for that upcoming episode, because if you're considering a new bill from here, you won't want to miss that one. Now, before we move into the final opportunity window, I want to touch briefly

Starting point is 01:09:11 on another story that's been flooding around in the media, the collapse of high-profile national buyer's agency desktop. Now I'm not here to run a trial by podcast and I'm not here to dance on anyone's grave. There are real clients, staff, families and people affected. So let's keep some humanity in this room. But I do want to make one very clear point. One buyer's agency collapse isn't a property crash. It's not a housing index. It's not a suburb growth report. It's not a vacancy rate and it's definitely not proof that quality Australian residential property has suddenly turned into pumpkin soup. What it may be is a warning about business models because the post-COVID property boom was unusually forgiving. Fast growth, big FOMO, interstate buying, investor

Starting point is 01:10:00 urgency, easy marketing narratives and a whole crowd of new property operators appeared almost overnight like mushrooms after rain designer sneakers. Some are good, some are sustainable. Some have strong systems, ethics, research, risk controls, client care and genuine investment discipline. But some were built for speed, volume, upfront fees, high transaction pressure, fast team growth, big overheads, big marketing costs and the assumption that the bull run would never pause. That's not a sustainable property or business strategy. That's surfing with no plan for when the wave turns into sand. Now businesses can fail for many reasons, cash flows, scale, refunds, advertising costs, staffing, management, market shifts, policy shock, debt or all of them

Starting point is 01:10:51 turning up together like uninvited relatives at Christmas lunch. So I'm not declaring the cause but I am saying this don't confuse operator failure with property fundamentals that will be like saying a restaurant closed so food's over no maybe the rent was too high maybe the chef left maybe the menu was wrong maybe the owner expanded too quickly maybe the cash reserves were thinner than a motel blanket but you don't stop eating because one restaurant couldn't manage the kitchen you just become more careful about where you book dinner and that's the lesson be careful who you follow be careful who you pay be careful how they're paid be careful how long they've been in the game be careful whether they've operated through more than one cycle be careful whether

Starting point is 01:11:40 whether they understand debt risk tax asset quality cash flow holdability and exit strategy or whether they simply know how to produce a reel with a drone shot, a latte and a promise to change your life by Tuesday. Because anyone can look clever in a runaway bull market. Even a wheelie bin rolls downhill if the slope is steep enough. But real professionals prove their value when the property slows, the noise rises and discipline matters.

Starting point is 01:12:09 So don't let a flashy collapse become another reason to freeze. Use it as a reminder. You don't need a property piper, you need a plan. You don't need someone to sell you urgency, you need someone to help you build resilience. And you don't need to chase the loudest promise. You need to follow the strongest process. Because quality property investing has never been about hype.

Starting point is 01:12:32 It's about structure, strategy, selection and staying power. Which brings us to the real opportunity in the current conditions. Because if you're a serious, strategic, prepared investor, this current calling may actually become more helpful than harmful. Not because everything gets easier, it won't. Not because every property becomes a bargain, it doesn't. And not because you should run out and buy the first thing with a kitchen, a postcode and a real estate agent using the phrase motivated vendor

Starting point is 01:12:59 or like it's a love language. Please don't. That's not strategy. That's property speed dating with stamp duty. But a calmer market can be a better market for you. Why? Because the noise drops. The FOMO fades.

Starting point is 01:13:12 the crowd's thin, the one-hit wonders start looking for the next shortcut, the property peacocks stop fanning their feathers, the high-pressure operators find it harder to turn urgency into invoices, and the serious investor finally gets something that's been missing for years, time. Time to think, time to compare, time to negotiate, time to do proper due diligence, time to secure finance properly, time to build a war chest, time to test the asset against your plan. Time to avoid being elbowed at auction by someone who discovered property investing free podcasts ago and thinks yield is something you do it around about. That's why a normal market reset can be healthy. It clears the froth. It clears the frenzy. It gives sanity a

Starting point is 01:13:58 chair at the table again. And if values soften in some areas, that doesn't automatically mean that the long-term opportunity has disappeared. It may mean that the entry window has improved. but remember the opportunity is not in the market because there is no one property market because property is not a perfect commodity. You can't treat every dwelling like a share in the same company. Every property is different with different land, different street, different floor plan, different light, different noise, different neighbours, different school zone, different emotional pool, different buyer depth, different resale appeal, different scarcity. This degree of difference is why property is such an opportunity to create value. That's why I

Starting point is 01:14:37 famed investor Steve McNaught has always said that as long as people need to live in houses, there's always going to be an opportunity to make money in property. And this is also where you need to be careful with median data. Median prices can be useful as a broad weather map, but they're not your investment GPS. A national medium doesn't tell you whether a family home on the best street in a tightly held suburb with no spare land and five emotional buyers behave exactly the same way an investor-grade unit in an oversupply block where every balcony faces another balcony and everyone's view is someone else's laundry. They're not the same asset, so don't invest or make decisions off media medians. Use them for context, then go deeper. Your sweet spot from here is

Starting point is 01:15:25 quality residential property with strong emotional owner-occupier appeal and low-supply, high-demand locations. Places where people don't just rent or buy because the spreadsheet says so. They want to live there. They want the school, the street, the park, the beach, the train, the cafe, the hospital, the lifestyle, the safety, the community, the convenience and the scarcity. Because emotional buyers protect values. Owner-occupied demand protects resale. Scarcity protects pricing. And quality protects you when the median headline starts flapping around like a chook in a wind total. So your job now is not to ask, what's the market doing? Your job is to ask, what is this asset in this location for this price with this structure likely to do for my nest egg over the

Starting point is 01:16:13 next 10 to 15 years? That's the grown-up question. And that's why the best nest test in my ebook matters for you. I'm not going to labour through the whole framework here because it's all laid out for you and the guide. But the short version is buy well, understand your equity entry, sustain the hold, get your tax and structure right, focus on net growth, know your exit options, respect your sleep factor, and match the asset to your time horizon. That's the filter. And that's what you need before you buy anything from here. Not a hot suburb list, not a tax trick, not a magic postcode, not a buyer's agent with urgency breath, but a filter. Because you don't need to gets to the bottom. That's a mugs game. You need to prepare properly, understand your numbers,

Starting point is 01:17:00 know your buying capacity, build your buffers, test your strategy and be ready to act when the right asset appears at the right price. Wealth isn't built by waiting for perfect certainty. It's built by making informed decisions when uncertainty is scared off the unprepared. And that's why I'm not gloomy. I'm cautious and considered. I'm selective. I'm disciplined. But I'm definitely not gloomy because over more than 40 years of watching property conditions move through their cycles I've seen this movie many times. The cast changes, the headlines change, the politicians change, the tax rules change and more recently the YouTube thumbnails get more ridiculous. But the principles don't change. Scarcity matters, quality matters, structure

Starting point is 01:17:41 matters, holdability matters, time matters. And the investor can stay calm, run the numbers and buy well when the crowd is confused often looks very smart 10 years later. Not because they guessed perfectly, but because they acted with strategy, not stress. So let's bring this home. The great property crash everyone keeps shouting about is not what I'm seeing. What I'm seeing is a confidence correction, a reset, a return toward normal, a long overdue breather after a post-COVID growth run that was never sustainable forever. And yes, some areas will soften. Some assets will struggle.

Starting point is 01:18:18 Some investors who bought badly, borrowed badly or followed badly will feel the squeeze. But that's not the same thing as saying quality. Residential property has lost its place as a major well-burning engine for hard-working Aussies. It hasn't.

Starting point is 01:18:33 The rules may be changing. The tax bite may be bigger. The annual holding cost may feel heavier. And from here, lazy property investing will get punished faster but quality residential property bought well funded well structured well and held long enough still has a very important role in helping you build your strongest usable net nest egg and that's the key phrase usable net nest egg not the smallest tax bill not the loudest

Starting point is 01:19:01 headline not the shiniest brochure not the latest magic suburb going pushed by someone whose entire due diligence appears to involve white sneakers, a drone shot and a suspiciously excited spreadsheet. Your job now is not to panic. Your job is to prepare, to get clear, to understand your options, to know what you own, to know what you can hold, to know what you should avoid, to know whether established property, new build, your own home, rent vesting, super commercial ETFs or simply building a better buffer is the right next move for you and that's exactly why we've created the new ebook and the ready regna the ebook is how should i invest in property now and it's live right now the ready regna is the shorter puncher number folks companion we're preparing to make

Starting point is 01:19:50 the key dollar and percentage impacts even easy to see share and remember together they cut through the budget fog the tax spaghetti the crash headlines and the social media circus so that you can actually see the numbers compare the pathways and make better informed decisions with your eyes open and your blood pressure somewhere south of volcano they show you what may have changed what may not have changed why the proposed rules are still not final law why lowest tax doesn't automatically mean best outcome why quality residential property still matters, how new build may fit, where ETFs, super commercial and your own home each play a role and how to use the best nest test to stop asking what looks best and start asking what leaves me

Starting point is 01:20:35 best. So your action step simple. Click the link in the show notes and grab your free copy while the short release window is open. Read it, save it, share it with your partner, send it to your accountant, your broker or your advisor. Use it as a compensation starter. Use it as a decision filter use it to replace panic with perspective and then i want to hear from you email me directly at bushy at khgroup.com.au with just two things number one your best takeaway from the ebook and number two the one must do action you're now going to take as a result not 10 actions not a thesis not a financial version of war and peace just your biggest takeaway and your next best must-do action. I'll personally read them all and I'll choose one to receive a free property

Starting point is 01:21:20 mentoring session with yours truly, where we'll spend a dedicated hour answering all of your personal questions. So grab the e-book and email me. I can't wait to hear from you. Because the point of this is not just to understand what's happening, it's to do something useful with that understanding. That might be reviewing your existing property, checking your buying capacity, building a proper war chest, stress testing your holding costs, speaking with your accountant, reconsidering your structure looking at a quality new build or simply pausing before you make a decision that future you will slap you for so click the link on the show notes grab the ebook watch out for the ready reckoner send me your takeaway and your must-do action and remember

Starting point is 01:22:00 this property investing isn't dead lazy investing is the budget may change some of the rules but it hasn't changed the principles. Scarcity still matters. Quality still matters. Structure, holdability, and time still matters. And your best nest will not be built by reacting to headlines. It'll be built by making calm, clear, well-informed decisions by design or by default. So stay calm, stay curious, keep cutting through the noise, and keep building the life, the freedom, and the future that you were born to live. So thanks for joining me and until next week, make sure you always, always get invested.

Starting point is 01:22:45 Thanks for tuning in to Get Invested on the Property Hub podcast channel, your home for property investment insights and inspiration. Make sure you subscribe to Property Hub for free. Get your weekly dose of Get Invested inspiration along with every episode of Realty Talk, Australia's top online property show for red hot property investing news

Starting point is 01:23:04 and insights direct from industry leaders and influencers. And finally, I'll see you next time.

Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Get Invested: The great property crash ... that isn't!

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