Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Realty Talk: 2022’s Property Boom or Bust?

Episode Date: January 7, 2022

Following a stellar boom across the board last year that exceeded all expectations, what is likely to happen with property in 2022? Louis Christopher from SQM Research joins us to share the details of his latest Housing Boom & Bust Report with some surprising property predictions that you can’t afford to miss.  RealtyTalk is your trusted voice in property investment and Australia’s most popular online property show.  RealtyTalk is brought to you by Realty, Australia’s leading search and social property distribution platform that helps investors like you beat the crowd, giving you the earliest access to property opportunities, listings, and insights. Check out Realty. RealtyTalk is hosted by top property investment expert, author, and founder of KnowHow Property, Bushy Martin. Find out how Bushy’s KnowHow team helps investors unlock freedom with finance and property here, and check out Bushy’s podcast Get Invested.  RealtyTalk is supported by BMT, a company that helps property investors save thousands of dollars each year by maximizing tax deductions from investment properties. Find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Realty Talk, the show that brings together the country's most authoritative and respected property experts. Follow us on all the socials and subscribe for updates and exclusive offers. Realty Talk is powered by Realty.com.au, connecting buyers, sellers and agents differently. Happy New Year and welcome to the first Realty Talk show for 2022. On behalf of Kevin Turner and the entire Realty family, we hope you've enjoyed a great festive season. and are looking forward to an exciting year ahead. I'm Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property Finance and this week we kick off the year with the first in a series of special shows that will open your eyes to the potential property opportunities ahead where we're going to do a deep dive with

one of the country's most recognised and respected property analysts, Louis Christopher from SQM Research to unpack his projections from his latest housing boom and bus report. This is a great way to start the year to ensure that you're fully informed in order to make better and cleverer property decisions moving forward. Louis has got some surprising and very informative forecast to unpack, so let's get underway. Successful property investment is a game of finance. Do you have the right team and the right game plan? Realty Talk is brought to you by Know How Property. More than mortgage brokers, Bushy Martin and his team of investment architects set you up with a sustainable strategy structured to lower your costs tax risk and stress while

increasing your capacity for growth know how has helped over 1900 homeowners and investors secure more than 800 million dollars in property wealth so get set to live more work less and live your legacy. Want to know how to invest in your freedom? Visit knowhowproperty.com.au. Greetings and welcome. Now, we're at that time of the year when everyone's wondering what's in store for property in the year ahead, particularly in light of the incredible year we've just experienced that's defied most expectations. So where do we always turn to get accurate, impartial and reliable property forecasts based on quantifiable data? It's SQM Research and Louis Christopher joins us today for a special feature show to outline the findings

of his team's latest housing boom and bus report that makes for a really great reading. So welcome back to the show Louis. G'day there Bushy, nice to be with you and your audience. Absolutely mate, we've got a pretty exciting show to talk about and I really did enjoy a deep dive read of your latest report but to sort of get things started let's have a look at the year that was and and get your thoughts on a review of how your 2021 price forecast fared against reality and perhaps just focus on what's varied of anything and why if you don't mind no problem well as i'm sure uh many of your audience are aware 2021 was a year where we had a massive housing price boom it occurred across all the major capital cities that occurred throughout regional australia on

our numbers uh 2021 has ended up by about 20 roughly um as an average now a lot of those gains have been for freestanding houses less so units that's where all the action's been our forecast that we had this time last year was that uh 2021 prices would rise somewhere between plus five to plus nine percent uh and that we would see price rises across the board we got the latter part right but the magnitude of those rises we definitely underestimated uh so uh yeah we we had a bit of a miss on that front uh we know the reasons why the market's gone up this much um and that's no doubt as a result of massive government stimulus uh to avoid the worst effects of covert the worst economic effects that is yeah very low interest rates uh of course throughout the period

remember the government in 2020 or the reserve bank in 2020 cut interest rates uh so that that's helped uh but as a year came to an end we started to see some indicators that the market was slowing and so for the year ahead we believe that the market will continue to slow and indeed we may will see some price falls in some cities interesting okay well let's get into the the guts of the future now if you don't mind and perhaps give us your overall view about how markets are likely to perform in the year ahead no problem well look as our readers of our regular annual reports? No, we'd like to come out with various scenarios. We're very good housing analysts, but I wouldn't call myself an interest rate expert. And I certainly wouldn't call myself

a COVID expert. So there's certainly factors out there that occur worldwide that have an influence on our housing market here that are very difficult to predict. But what we can do is that if you can tell me what's going to happen economically worldwide and here in Australia and what's happening with the states economically. I'll tell you what it means for the housing market and that's how we like to put together our forecast. So overall the forecast for 2022 is that dwelling prices will flatline effectively. The forecast is somewhere between zero to five percent gains but it's very much city dependent. So they range from us being most positive on the Brisbane housing market where we believe housing prices will rise somewhere between eight to fourteen

percent to uh sqn research being most negative on the melbourne housing market where we think housing prices will fall somewhere between minus three to maybe plus two percent so that's a net result where we think the melbourne market will rise in the first part of the new year but then for the remainder of the year the market is likely to fall until we get this net result range okay that's very we'll sort of go around the grounds in a minute if you don't mind just at a helicopter level but i'd love to sort of dig into what you consider to be the key drivers that we need to keep an eye out for that are going to influence property markets uh in the future please no problem yeah that looked at there is a number of key drivers that went into our forecasts

uh for 2022 uh the first key driver the major key driver is what our financial regulator may well do for the year that's the australian credential regulatory authority otherwise known as apra after have become quite a powerful body in recent years they have a significant influence in terms of what the banks can and cannot do on the home lending front. And when we go back to 2017, actions triggered by APRA at that point in time were the catalyst for a housing price correction that went from the later 2017 through to the election of 2019. In November 2021, So just a couple of months back, we had further action from APRA, and that action was revolving around a serviceability test.

Could borrowers afford an interest rate of, say, 6% or 7%? Could they still afford their loan? So they increased the serviceability test there, and we believe that APRA may well intervene the first half of this year in the marketplace potentially lifting the serviceability test once more or having additional action just focused on property investors as what they have done in the past we're certainly we've got a breaking arm to our business law and we're certainly seeing some of the banks now start to play more with the debt to income ratios some are you know really enforcing those we're seeing some circling back around sort of the treatment of living expenses

so we are starting to see some sort of macro potential modulation starting to occur that that as you say is probably likely to flow into what's what's going to happen as we progress in the year yes now that that's very interesting because there is potentially scenario that may well play out where APRA looks at the market recognizes that the market's actually slowing down and then what they do is they avoid taking additional action so there is a chance here that if the market continues to slow from the end of 2021 into the well and truly into the first quarter of 2022 APRA may not take any further action at all yeah yeah it's interesting these days and I'm sure you'll be on top of this more than I am Louis but there's a lot of media

a signalling that I see coming out of the likes of APRA and the RBA that has the same impact as actually making a change without having to make the change. Very true, Woshi, but I guess the question is whether that sentiment is lasting or not, or whether that dense sentiment for, say, a few weeks or a couple of months and then the market goes back off to the races again. I think that's something that APRA will have in the back of their minds, particularly if our second driver of the housing market or the economy comes into play this year and that is a rise in inflation. So our forecast for inflation for headlining inflation is that we're likely to see an acceleration. The forecast is that we're likely to see inflation rise to somewhere between four

to five percent starting off at three percent but accelerating. Now historically when we've seen a rise in inflation that's actually generally been good for housing prices because property investors or investors per se are looking for a hedge against inflation and historically property has been a pretty good hedge against inflation certainly in the stagflation period of the 1970s Sydney house prices actually quadrupled over that 10-year period primarily as a result of having inflation running between eight to up to 12 at one point around the country and it wasn't just sydney of course yeah but how would the reserve bank of australia respond to that type of environment would they lift interest rates if we were to see an acceleration

inflation now as the year came to a close in 2021 the rba made it pretty clear that they didn't think they were going to lift rates in 2022 they wanted to see more information come through they wanted to see a rise in wages on the other hand the money markets where all the money goes to have a bet on what future interest rates will be we're predicting that the rba would be forced to lift the cash rate multiple times this year it'll be interesting to see who's going to be right will it be the money or will it be the reserve bank of australia but if they do have to lift rates that naturally will have potential negative ramifications for the housing market but i do have one caveat there which we can go into if you want yeah and i i love your thoughts on

inflation's one element but i think the linkage to wage increases is also pretty paramount because if we don't have the two go in concert then that's when the issue is likely to occur what's your thoughts around the importance of wages in that whole equation yes the reserve bank of australia has made it very clear they want to see wage acceleration first before they lift interest rates now whether that plays out or not that's another matter altogether i think there are some shortages in the labor economy and i think they will feed through but that's just my view if they don't there potentially could be some negative ramifications for the housing market so if you see inflation hit say five percent but wages growth stays behind inflation

that actually has ramifications for the new serviceability tests that we've got with the banks because it really means that your disposable income starts to drop away because you're having to spend more money, a higher percentage of your income on goods and services where the prices have gone up, yet you're not really getting a significant wage rise to cover for those rise in living costs. Yeah, good call.

Howard, what's your thoughts around the recent rise of the Omicron variant on COVID and its likely impact? Any thoughts at this stage? Yeah, so look, we had as our third most likely scenario a situation where AFRA would hold off, we wouldn't get a rise in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia, yet inflation would pick up.

And that scenario was created around that scenario of a new variant and having to have more lockdowns in 2022. God forbid that actually occurs, right? We don't want that. But if we were to see that situation play out, funnily enough, we would actually see potentially a rise in housing prices for the year ahead across the capital cities once more because effectively what we're seeing is stimulus

to the housing market in the form of a negative interest rate, a negative real interest rate when you compare inflation to interest rates, and APRA holding back. So that could play out. Hopefully it doesn't. Sure, I know everybody wants to see the value of their asset rise, but do you really want to go back into lockdown again? Yeah, exactly.

The other wildcard, of course, we're in an election year federally. Any thoughts on the likely impacts or otherwise that that may have on the property side of the equation? Yes, this is an election where housing is not one of the top debating points. You may recall in the 2019 election and indeed the 2016 election, housing was a significant debating point because labor brought forward the notion of of getting rid of negative gearing yep um and they've dumped that policy so it's it in in for this year we

haven't really um had a major uh our forecasts have not been majorly impacted by what happens with the federal election because the Labor Party has not put any major policy on the table regarding housing. Yeah, yeah, good call. What about, I know you've commented on the sort of shift to regionalisation and the relative impacts of migration, as in there hasn't been much apart from interstate. What's your thoughts around those two? Yes, so as part of our forecast we believe that the borders will remain open well that's one of our assumptions and if we are right about that then we should see a strong rise in net international migration positive flows into Australia. Now historically the first port of call for migrants is Sydney and Melbourne

and we expect the same again for 2022 and this will help the unit market in those two cities relative to the freestanding housing market. So we expect property owners or unit owners in those two cities to have a better year this year. But as mentioned, that assumes a border stays open and that's a critical factor. Now, the other population flow to watch out for is interstate migration.

One of the cities which we're particularly positive on is the Brisbane housing market. where we have a forecast this year of prices rising 8% to 14%. Now, that still represents somewhat of a slowdown on the market where prices rose by about 22% in Brisbane for 2021. Yep. But that's still pretty strong gains if we are proven to be correct. And the reason why we're most bullish on the Brisbane market

is, number one, interstate migration flows. So, throughout the course of COVID, for 2020 and 2021, Queensland enjoyed very strong interstate migration flows, predominantly out of Victoria and New South Wales. It's fair to say that Queensland has been perceived as being the state which has handled COVID the best. It's been a state where there's been less restrictions, predominantly because there's been effectively no COVID. And I think people are looking to Queensland as a state to move to with a view that COVID will be well managed going forward.

On top of that, Queensland is enjoying an affordability gain compared to, say, New South Wales and Victoria, and particularly the capital cities. And yes, Brisbane house prices have risen substantially, but Sydney and Melbourne house prices have risen a lot more in many respects over recent years. and so there's there is this huge affordability gap between the three cities in brisbane's favor and we think affordability is a significant issue right now particularly surrounding freestanding houses and particularly for sydney and melbourne freestanding houses and we think this will be also a major catalyst for people moving north to queensland Yeah, yeah, it makes perfect sense. So you've started to sort of break down the impacts on the capital cities.

Let's continue that by going around the grounds a little bit. And you've touched on Brisbane, the benefits there at the expense to some degree of Sydney and Melbourne. What about the rest of the capitals, Lily? What's your thoughts based on your base case of what's likely to happen and why? Sure, no problem. Look, I might start off with the two largest capital cities. So I think I mentioned this before, we're pretty negative on the Melbourne freestanding houses market, that the forecast is that prices could fall this year by up to 3%, and that is on the back of reduced affordability, APRA intervention, and let's keep in mind Melbourne in the past has actually been rather sensitive to actions from APRA. so and and that interstate migration outflow which we think will persist in the state of victoria

so yes we're a little bit negative on the melbourne freestanding houses market now one region which we're bullish on still is mornington peninsula where we think that market will continue to move forward uh at a fairly rapid rate of knots uh and and so we're still pretty bullish on houses and units of course for that particular region. The unit market as mentioned before we think will do better based on the opening of the international borders but overall we think Melbourne's going to be a bit of an underperformer for this year. For the Sydney market we're expecting a similar situation to Melbourne. The forecast is that prices could fall House prices, that is, could fall by up to minus 2%.

Maybe we might see some gains. It is dependent in some respects in terms of when APRA will intervene once again, if they do. So if they intervene early this year, then it's likely we'll see price falls in the Sydney market happening immediately after that intervention. On the other hand, Evapro were to delay their intervention to say the second half of the year, potentially you could see another rise up in the Sydney housing market. Now the state of New South Wales, of course, it's done potentially a little bit better than Victoria in terms of lockdowns and management of COVID. so I think people are a little bit more positive towards the state of New South Wales compared to Victoria but there's still going to be an ongoing net interstate outflow we think from New South Wales into Queensland and this will be a bit of a negative for the market that said assuming we're

right about the international border being open there will be an offset there let's keep in mind know that historically most migrants when they come to sydney and melbourne they will move to a unit first that's traditionally that the property type they were interested in whether they rent or buy so we're expecting the unit market to do better particularly in the inner city areas of sydney where unit prices have been languishing actually for some years now yeah yeah so some rental pressures there let's let's sort of uh look at neighboring south australia because i having been pretty active in that area ourselves anecdotally we're certainly seeing quite a few ex-adelaideans who've made the exodus to the eastern states now wanting to come back given the

lifestyle and affordability benefits what's your read on on adelaide and south australia yes we think that's been happening bushy in terms of uh south australia enjoying a bit of a lift out of covert uh in 2021 house prices rose by actually right on 20 on our numbers which is a huge lift that's a that's the biggest rise we've recorded for adelaide uh in the past i think 12 years now so a really big big gain for Adelaide property owners will it persist in 2022 not at the same rate but we're nevertheless pretty positive on the Adelaide market the forecast is that housing prices will rise somewhere between four to eight percent like Brisbane Adelaide is enjoying an affordability gain from Sydney and Melbourne indeed when we compare housing prices to

incomes adelaide's right up there in terms of that benefit really right up there at this point the question will be how will the adelaide economy perform in 2022 it might not be a bad year and given all things in recent years the adelaide economy's done okay let's remember of course the car industry has gone it's it's been gone effectively from what late 2017 if i recall yeah but other parts of the city economy have done quite well and it's and the state government's actually done pretty well in terms of managing the economy and that's helped um in terms of keeping unemployment at relative um by you know unemployment's really gone no higher than about circa six percent. So the economy there has done reasonably well. It's not an economy which

generally shoots the lights out, but it is a diversified enough economy there and there's still plenty of ongoing government support. Rental vacancy rates in Adelaide have been very tight over this time and yet we're not seeing a massive wave of supply coming through. if we continue to see interstate positive interstate migration to south australia and we think we will see that in 2022 that it is quite likely it'll be a positive year for the adelaide housing market yeah okay let's go a little bit further west then what's your view on perth louis oh perth perth was definitely one of the cities where we were a bit challenged on challenged on it's it's it's a tricky one because you've got a state premier there that's pretty

heavy-handed when it comes to the closure of the state border uh the loss of the ashes will weigh on people's minds i think in many respects in terms of gee has our premier really gone a bit too far but overall he's received a lot of support by the locals um i mean he absolutely thrashed it when it came to the last election and on top of that the state of WA has enjoyed considerable revenue from the resources boom which was still persistent in 2021 despite the recent falls in iron ore prices as well as a great deal that the premier did on GST receipts before just before COVID broke out and that's definitely helped the state over this period now as the year drew to a close dwelling prices in Perth on our numbers rose by

about 16% so it was a bit of a lag compared to some of the other cities but still pretty strong yep the rental market did really really well so rents rose in Perth by about 11% for the year And vacancy rates, as 2021 drew to a close, were still very, very tight. Yeah. So our forecast for rents in Perth is that rents will rise between 8% to 13% this year. So, yeah, it's still going to be positive, we think. Dwelling prices, the forecast is that prices will rise somewhere between 3% to 7%. Perth is enjoying an affordability gain similar to Adelaide and Brisbane.

But, yeah, on our modelling, look, we think it will not rise as much as Brisbane because we've still got the issue of the state border. So getting that interstate migration flows coming through, we need to see the State Premier just loosen up a bit in terms of what he wants to do surrounding restrictions. Yeah, interesting. So what about the Apple Isle? Tasmania's had an incredible ride over the last five years or so. What's your forecast for what's going to happen there? Yeah, look, we had a pretty big miss on Hobart for 2021. We thought that the market would slow down and only record negligible price gains. In the end, the housing market rose by 28% in terms of housing prices. so it was a huge year for hobart and as you've stated this is not the first year this has been

going on effectively since 2016. yeah uh that type of gain cannot be sustainable over the media to long term and we really think the the easy runs have been had uh for property investors our forecast for this year is that we we could see price falls of up to minus three percent Hobart property is no longer affordable for the locals that's the fundamental issue here and we do believe Hobart will be more affected than say Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide when it comes to additional intervention by the financial regulator to restrict lending there's been a lot of property investors in the Hobart market in recent times and they would be affected by any additional restrictions. On the rental front, it's still a landlord's market in Hobart,

so we're forecasting a rentable rise by between 5% to 9%. It's fair to say, and I've had this evidence shared with me by property developers, where despite the strong market in Hobart over the last five years or so, developers have been reluctant to actually try anything in Hobart. and there's been a few reasons for that firstly we know the banks have been a bit restrictive in terms of lending to the hobart market for developers let's say the locals but for developers um and on top of that i've had developers share with me stories about the cost involved in terms of getting materials into the hobart market which a lot of those materials to build actually have to come from the mainland yeah so to do a build in hobart it can be actually very costly

And up until recent times, developers just looked at that equation and said, oh no, there's lower hanging fruit elsewhere. Let's not bother with Hobart. I think that's been changing of late and we have recorded a rise in building approvals. But nevertheless, it's meant that there's been shortages of property. And we think those shortages are still there. And hence the reason why we're pretty bullish on the rental market, at least for Hobart. Yeah, okay. Well, let's now shift to the regions because there's, you know, there's been a massive exodus to the regions in recent times as a response to COVID. What's your view on how the regions are likely to perform and is this exodus a temporary or a permanent exercise as you see it? Well, that's the question of the day at the moment, Bushy,

is are we going to see a retreat of city slickers away from the regional townships back into the cities again? I think we'll see at least a part retreat. But will it come from coastal Australia, coastal regional areas around Australia? Will it come from inland Australian townships? We think it's likely to come from a number of inland regional townships, particularly those townships where the local economy is bit narrow is very susceptible to any individual based commodity moves and has lower amenities so you think about it for a city slicker it's been used to the good life in the cities suddenly moving to you know do the tree change it's a bit of a shock to the system you can

you can have culture shock you can't exactly for many of these places just go down and get your your sliced avocado on toast right you know it's it's it's it's not all there and so it doesn't suit everybody and so that's the reason why we think you know we'll probably see a bit of a retreat once everybody's satisfied that the the days of lockdowns are truly behind us how do you think how do you think the winners and losers in the in the regional context will be without getting too specific, just generically? Generically, we're pretty positive for 2022 on Queensland coastal regions,

right up and down the coast of Queensland. Perhaps the growth rate will not be as strong as what we had in 2021, but we think prices are still likely to rise. You see, many of those coastal regions do have the amenities. They do have the infrastructure. The standard of living is quite good.

And so we think the retreat back to the capital cities will be reduced as opposed to small townships in inland Australia where those amenities, as mentioned before, are quite limited. Yeah, yeah, okay. And we haven't touched on the country's capital, the ACT, and it's sort of insulated

by the government sector to a big degree and always has been. Yes. And it's done very well in recent times. What's your read on Canberra? Yes, indeed. on our numbers for 2021, dwelling prices rose by 25.5%. That's a huge rise for the Canberra housing market. For this year, the forecast is that dwelling prices will slow, but still likely to

record a positive result somewhere between plus 5% to plus 9%. We're in an election year, as everybody is aware and so of course the check the checkbook will be out but people should be wary of a change in government if we do actually get one often when you see a change of federal government the first year you generally see that government pulling the purse strings a little bit that's historically what has happened and so when that does happen canberra historically suffered a a little bit yeah uh now i don't know where labor stands on that in terms of what they wish to run for their budget for the first year i guess it's a bit of a mystery and labor historically have not really been a let's let's get the budget into the black you know that's not what they generally have

been all about i'm sure there'll be plenty of people labor supporters might disagree with me on that point and and raise some uh technicalities about the liberal party running huge deficits fair enough um but nevertheless they're not exactly known for being putting the the budget into the black so if we do see a change in government potentially it might not be that needy for the canberra housing market on the rental side for canberra it was a big year uh rents rose by about 12 in 2021 our forecast for this year is that we'll still see another rise of somewhere between four to seven percent uh that's because we're still recording rental vacancy rates at under one percent at this point uh so that's the reason why we're bullish on the

canberra market yeah what's been a really good run through louis it's giving us a really good impression there of where it's going to happen i wouldn't mind you just sort of giving your thoughts on on the trajectory so quarter to quarter uh how you are currently seeing that the rise and falls uh as as you've outlined uh overall well for a number of cities as as we've pointed out to where we've got this range like for example we're saying minus three percent to maybe plus two percent this is a net result of the year and that result is is more influenced by the fact that we think for the first quarter of this year we're still likely to record some price rises yep but thereafter shortly thereafter we're likely to record those price falls particularly in

sydney and melbourne so the view is first quarter slower slower rates of growth in some cities thereafter price falls for the remainder of the year yeah okay it's very sobering in the context of decisions that people need to make. And, Matt, I really want to thank you, as always, for your very timely and enlightening insights, Louie, and thanks again for your generous time on sharing this with us on the show today. You're welcome, Bushy.

It's really good to be with you. Always. No, it's absolutely clear from what we've heard today from Louie that if you're a real estate professional or a serious residential investor looking to make smart decisions in the year ahead, you can't afford to miss SQM's comprehensive housing boom and bust report, which is actually a 130-page report that gives you a full breakdown of every postcode in the

country, covering current market statistics and postcode investor ratings, which you can get right now for just $59.95 by jumping on sqmresearch.com.au forward slash boom bus report. We've got an exciting year ahead in property, so keep watching here on Realty Talk. Property depreciation is the natural wear and tear of a building and its assets. Property investors can claim depreciation as a tax deduction each financial year. Depreciation is a non-cash deduction. This means you don't need to spend any money in order to claim it. On average, BMT tax depreciation fined residential investors almost $9,000 in first full financial year deductions. Call BMT on 1300 728 726 today for an obligation free quote.

welcome back well i hope you've enjoyed this deep dive on louis housing boom and bus report for 2022 before we wrap things up let me summarize my key takeaway from sqm's predictions capital city dwelling prices are likely to peak in the first half of 2022 with growth slowing down sharply due to expected further intervention by the banking regulator to restrict home lending sqm's base forecast is for property prices to rapidly slow from the current annual 20 plus growth rates that we enjoyed in 2021 louis expects a slower road of price rises over the first quarter of the year followed by price falls as early as mid 2022 the price falls will be led by sydney and melbourne houses for which sqm is currently recording significant overvaluation

The boom and bust report forecasts Brisbane will record the largest willing price rises over the current year, with prices predicted to rise between 8% to 14%, with prices supported by expected strong interstate migration flows given relatively good housing affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne. This gain will nevertheless represent a significant slowdown compared to 2021 increases. Melbourne and Sydney are likely to record house price falls from mid-2022 due to additional expected intervention by APRA to cool the property market. Melbourne could be further affected by migration to other states. However, this is likely to be offset by a rise in net overseas migration that's expected later this year. Looking beyond the eastern states, Canberra is forecast to enjoy another solid year of five to nine percent growth along with Adelaide which is also looking to enjoy another steady year with growth between 4% to 8%. Perth is next in line with 3% to 7% projected

growth, while Darwin and Hobart are tipped a flat line or even see price drops of somewhere between 3% to 4% by year's end. Other key takeaways from Louis' boom and bust report include that dwelling prices in regional Australia potentially might correct backwards, particularly for inland communities as people may return to the capital cities. Official interest rates are likely to stay on hold at least until the end of the year. Expected dwelling price corrections are likely to moderate unless exacerbated by aggressive monetary policy action involving rate rises and ongoing rental rises are likely to occur for capital cities over and above the CPI change. So it's clear that if you're a real estate professional or a serious residential investor

looking to make clever decisions in the year ahead, you can't afford to miss SQM's comprehensive housing boom and bust 130 page report that gives you a full breakdown of every postcode in the country covering current market statistics and postcode investor ratings which you can get now for just $59.95 which is absolute bargain by just jumping on sqmresearch.com.au forward slash boom bust report well that brings us to the end of this week's show another big thanks to our special guest, Louis Christopher, for sharing his in-depth insights. And to make sure that you don't miss an episode of Australia's longest running and most popular online property show, subscribe to Realty Talk on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you listen. And make

sure that you sign up on the realty.com.au homepage to get every episode in your inbox. And while you're there, make sure you check out one of Australia's most extensive range of properties for sale from over 7,000 agents nationally. Thanks again to realty.com.au and BMT Tax Depreciation for their ongoing support. I'm Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property Finance and I look forward to joining you again next week with another special property prediction show that confirms what's promising to be another exciting year ahead. So I'll see you then. miss something in this week's show or want to catch up on past shows do it anytime at realty.com.au where we connect buyers sellers and agents differently