Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Realty Talk: Risks vs Returns + Tech transforms rentals
Episode Date: February 18, 2022Last year was a truly remarkable year in property, so what lessons did we learn from it that will guide us in the year ahead? To discuss the year that was and then the year that will be, Realty Talk r...egular Simon Pressley from Propertyology joins us for part one of a 2 part special feature. Most investors tend to focus on how much money they’re likely to make without properly considering the risks and how to protect their investments, so to balance the books, Darren Kingdon from Kingdon Financial Services does a deep dive on property risk management. In the cut and thrust world of property management, the old days of tenants responding to letting ads in the paper have long gone as social media and tech continue to transform the industry. To discuss this tech transformation and close out the show, we’re joined by Adam Hinds from Sorted Services who works closely with property managers and are Australia’s first all-in-one home services marketplace. RealtyTalk is your trusted voice in property investment and Australia’s most popular online property show. RealtyTalk is brought to you by Realty, Australia’s leading search and social property distribution platform that helps investors like you beat the crowd, giving you the earliest access to property opportunities, listings, and insights. Check out Realty. RealtyTalk is hosted by top property investment expert, author, and founder of KnowHow Property, Bushy Martin. Find out how Bushy’s KnowHow team helps investors unlock freedom with finance and property here, and check out Bushy’s podcast Get Invested. RealtyTalk is supported by BMT, a company that helps property investors save thousands of dollars each year by maximizing tax deductions from investment properties. Find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, and welcome to this week's Realty Talk show, your go-to place for all things property.
I'm Bushy Martin from Know How Property Finance, and we've got some great guests on this
week's episode. Now it's fair to say that last year was a truly remarkable year in property.
So what lessons did we learn from it that will guide us in the year ahead? To discuss the year
that was and the year that will be, Realty Talk regular Simon Presley from Propertyology
joins us for part one of a special two-part feature. Now most investors tend to focus on
how much money they're likely to make without properly considering the risks and how to protect
their investments. So to balance the books, Darren Kingdon from Kingdon Financial Services
does a deep dive on property risk management. And in the cut and thrust world of property
management, the old days of tenants responding to letting ads in the paper has long gone as
social media and tech continue to transform the industry. To discuss this tech transformation and
to close out the show, we're joined by Adam Hines from Sorted Services, who work closely with
property managers and are actually Australia's first all-in-one home services marketplace.
We've got some great insights to share, so let's get on with the show.
Hi and welcome. Now, in my humble experience, almost everyone's an armchair expert on what's
going to happen in property, and property predictions from so-called experts absolutely
abound, but very few of them managed to consistently get it right. Last year's
national property performance is the perfect case in point, because despite many forecasts
of the contrary, 2021 was a truly remarkable year in property, as was accurately predicted
by today's special guest, whose contrarian approach was yet again on the money. So in
a special two-part interview series that dissects the year that was and the year that will be in
property. We're joined again by the Warren Buffett of Property in Australia, a Realty Talk
favourite and Australia's Premier Property Market Analyst, Simon Presley, the Head of Research at
Propertyology. Welcome back to the show, Simon. Thanks, Bushy. Happy 2022 to you, my friend.
You're likewise, mate. If all the indicators are good, we're in for another cracker this year,
mate, but I'm getting ahead of myself. So, mate, to kick things off, to sort of put property
projections in context, can we start with a look at how Propertyology's predictions have stacked
up against reality, as well as your comparisons to weather expert predictions over the last
couple of years.
Yeah, I'll put a graphic together if we can bring that up on the screen now.
I guess in doing that, this is dangerous because I know that there's always someone out there
waiting to pick you up when you get your forecasting wrong.
And I've often argued, Bushy, there is nothing more difficult on this planet other than perhaps
getting a cure for cancer than forecasting property markets.
There's so many moving pieces.
But one of the proudest moments of my entire working life was being the only person in Australia to accurately predict the boom that happened when we all went into that national lockdown.
This might sound strange, but it's actually the easiest forecast I've ever made.
I've never been more certain.
And this graphic shows that all of the big banks and a number of high-profile economists all predicted double-digit declines.
And some of those were as much as 30% declines in the 2020 calendar year.
The year just completed, the 2021 calendar year, we saw a continuation of the boom that started probably about August in 2020 is when it started to really accelerate.
So 2021, we knew it was going to be a good year.
But again, the very, very conservative banks and economists who, quite frankly, don't understand property markets very well, never have.
They were still forecasting around that 10% range,
which is a fantastic year.
Don't get me wrong.
But it proved to be well short of what actually happened.
In fact, most of the banks,
what they actually forecast at the start of 2021,
the actual result was four times higher
than what they forecast at the start of the year.
Yeah.
And the comparison with your thoughts,
just to spell it out,
talk to us about how to look from your side yeah so last year we we had a number of capital cities
around that 15 to 18 percent um annualized growth rate i mean we got a lot of criticism at the time
people saying you know how could property prices you know seriously grow that much in one year but
that all that proved to be conservative um a number of capital cities had somewhere between
25 and 30 percent last year so we were unders um but but also you know at the start of last year
We said, and it's still in our report today, that there would be no less than 40 individual regional towns and cities that would produce in excess of 20%.
We said that at the start of 2021, and that absolutely happened.
There are some places that saw closer to 40%, and there were more than 40 that had that sort of rates of growth.
So spectacular year last year for sure.
No question.
So the obvious question is,
what's different about
propertyology's forecasting approach
that allows you to be consistently
close to the marks on it?
I guess those people that society
put up on a pedestal
and expect to have a good understanding
of property markets,
what they're probably not aware of
is there's no such thing anywhere
for anybody as a university
where you learn about property markets.
No such thing.
There is no course that you can do.
There are plenty of courses you can go on,
but nothing of really high
quality that strips things apart so this is why no one understands property markets really really
well i spent a big chunk of my life literally studying australian real estate history took me
many many years now when you're forecasting what's happened before there's no guarantee
happening again but the key thing to studying and this happens in medicine it's what we call
the cause and effect um so why i you know i wanted to devote years of my life studying australian
real estate history was not just to know what happened before more importantly what what
occurred for those outcomes so every location australia has had booms before bar none every
location has had downturns before bar none but knowing when they occurred and what were the
local conditions um is to me the next best thing as a crystal ball so what i'm looking at each and
every year is a big bunch of cause and effect factors and i've trained myself to literally
ignore what every bugger says about property market because that would have influenced my
own decisions and if I allowed that to happen in years gone past Bushy the decisions that we made
as a business and where we chose to invest in we would have ignored them I would have been
influenced by everyone else's rhetoric yeah very good call well let's go around the grounds now
nationally and have a look at how property has performed over the last 12 months if you don't
mind yeah absolutely so we got another graphic um we'll bring up here but firstly let's say
every single capital city um you know did exceptionally well didn't it um uh the worst
if we can say that worst performed you know capital city last year was was darwin um melbourne
we thought was always going to have a pretty um average year relative to everyone else but still
performed strongly um it's also important to say that apartments did nowhere near as well as houses
The gap was, you know, significant.
In some cases, the differential between change in median house price
and change in apartment value was 15% to 20%.
Huge gap.
But the real big winners were, as we forecast,
in various parts of regional Australia.
In no particular order, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast saw about 30%.
All that sort of northern New South Wales corridor, Ballina, Byron,
Coffs Harbour, they, you know, they had closer to 40%.
around there.
In Victoria, Bendigo is a star performer,
about 30% growth last year.
But most of regional Victoria did really well.
Warrnambool, you know, Great Ocean Road country
was an exceptional performer last year.
I know Mildura was about 20-odd percent
on the back of several strong years before that.
Ballarat and Bendigo, still strong,
but nowhere near the strongest in Victoria.
um where albany was a really strong performer you know border town country there um all of
tasmania you know it's the most treasured real estate um in this entire nation bar none uh
launceston probably had about 35 percent uh growth last year and bernie was in excess of that closer
to 40 hobart has had its now seventh consecutive year of strong performance taking it now out to
about 140% growth over the last seven years.
And I know next discussion we're going to talk about the outlook
for next year, but I'm going to give away to your viewers now,
the outlook for Hobart is just as strong as what it's ever been
in the last seven years.
Yeah.
Yeah, there's been a big shift, which we'll talk about shortly.
This dichotomy between the capitals and the country,
there's already a lot of commentators saying that the,
I'll call it the boomerang effect, they've gone to the country,
now they want to go back to the city.
and i i guess from my perspective i actually question that but uh what what are your thoughts
on this and and how sustainable is the the regional growth exercise that we're we've been
seeing do you think simon yeah i've heard those comments and they're getting um they're getting
loud and frankly it's arrogance and ignorance the people who make those comments are rock solid
stereotypical capital city folk that have never got their head in their ass and looked anywhere
beyond their own hometown and they've said the same thing every single year Bushy about anything
other than Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne in accordance to them why would anyone want to
leave anywhere else well that's they're projecting themselves what they're not doing is the things
we were talking about earlier to give yourself a chance of making a really you know good forecast
and actually look at the fundamentals I wouldn't know where to find them let alone have the skill
to put them together um the boomerang effect I would suggest that those Australians who have
spent most of their life pre-covid living in a capital city and couldn't travel overseas have
gone on a number of um regional holidays i'm not certainly talking about everybody here but they've
gone on um and enjoyed regional holidays and when they've got there they've had this amazing feeling
of relief and energy and excitement and wow there is a much greater chance of more people than pre
covid more people relocating from a from a capital city to a region now than before because they've
had more exposure to it yeah and there's a lot of things that yeah the dynamics have changed too
there's no longer the expectation you have to spend 40 hours a week in an office in the in the
in the city so and the technology has now enabled it so i'm with you i i think this uh this lifestyle
exodus to the regions is something that's only going to continue and strengthen not not the
other way around but tell us about the the sort of what you view as the major driver of the seismic
shift in growth away from the capitals to the regions if you don't mind well i'm not saying
all of them i'm not saying every year but in every single year there are a big bunch of
regional locations that have a significantly stronger local economy than most in some cases
all capital cities people would never know that right never know that because they've don't
don't they don't have a need to learn it yeah as i would argue that we are the only
genuine national buyers agency business in all of australia so we need to know that because
economics at a local level is the thing that we place more value on than anything else yeah when
we pick property marks now large parts of regional australia have had an unemployment rate below the
national average for many years before covid yeah and if you have a think about you know how
different industries being affected by COVID, again, not saying all, but a lot of industries
that are more pronounced in regional Australia compared to capital cities, they were already
strong industries and they've become stronger industries. If you think of agriculture and
demand for food, not just within Australia, but globally, if you think of natural resources
strong, if you think of renewable energy projects going nuts, do you think that's going to slow
down then we're going to say let's consume more coal no way in the world um domestic tourism we've
just been talking more people have traveled this huge country and discovered corners have never
been to before largely because of covid and gone let's do more of this so you know domestic tourism
going to continue to go nuts um the education space the health space they've always been strong
regions but they're expanding defense force um yeah a lot of tension between australia and some
other western countries and places like china we're going to be investing more and more money
into our defense force which includes defense manufacturing and defense personnel and most of
those personnel work in regions not in capital city so it's mostly an economic story for some
people it's a lifestyle story um they might still be working the same job that they're in before
covid but they've literally picked up their laptop they've packed the car and the family has gone
we're getting out of it. We enjoyed a holiday here because of COVID and we've discovered
something that's better than what we expected. Agreed. Now, you've got a great slide on the
lifestyle movement and its impact. We'll bring that up now. Can you just briefly
complement that and add to what you've mentioned already around that?
Yeah. So this tracks every single real estate transaction, every sale of a property,
a house or an apartment all over australia um over the last sort of you know four years there
and you can see that it was actually reducing for a couple of years there before because before
covid we had those years where it was hard to get a loan yeah um we had uh two federal elections
when negative gearing was the central you know thing we were debating um so confidence to transact
in real estate for a lot of people was not great and those who had the confidence some people
couldn't get a loan because of APRA. So you see that green line trending down there for the first
part of it. And then you see, this is pre-COVID, the boom started six months before COVID.
We saw a few interest rate cuts. We saw APRA pull their head in on credit policy so people
could get finance again. And the boom then started. It was put on pause for about three
months during the national lockdown when COVID arrived. And then everyone come out of their
cocoons um we had stimulus we had people wanted to escape capital cities we had investors finally
coming back in the market and it's gone through the roof um and i would you know credit policy
permitting i expect a similar trend to continue for several years we we are in the most
transformational period in australians every australian's um lifetime since 70 years ago
the beginning of the baby boom yeah yeah very exciting times mate uh and we'll look forward to
more detail on your projections moving forward in in our next get together but to just to whet
our appetite for that uh for next week's show uh just to summarize what would be the five top tips
for property investors that you suggest they adopt moving forward yeah general tips um forget where
you live when you are investing you're not buying to live in so what's important to you from a from
a feeling perspective is irrelevant you're not trying to satisfy the feeling the most important
feeling will be 15 20 years down the track when you go to sell and the price you get for your
asset then is a lot more than other parts of australia so focus on the things that are going
to affect that feeling so to do that you need to be completely borderless the odds of the best
perform property market across a country that has eight capital cities and 200 individual regional
towns the odds of it being your hometown you have a lower than 1 in 200 chance yeah so play the odds
right be ballers that's step number one um asset type only ever buy a detached house and make sure
it's an established detached house never ever buying you it's just loaded with taxes we've got
enough evidence now at our disposal to know that detached houses grow a lot more than apartments
townhouses duplexes that's not saying those other asset classes won't grow at all but you would be
ridiculous to ignore the proof that they will never grow as much because of the tax house yeah
um and look never pay any more than i used to say five hundred thousand dollars for an investment
property but that was before this super boom um so now i'll say principles the same don't have all
you're into one basket so never pay more than about eight hundred thousand dollars for an asset
um we're commonly paying somewhere between six and seven hundred thousand dollars when we're
representing investor um all around australia so a few fundamental tips there for property investors
yeah a brilliant framework to approach things and when we overlay that against your predictions and
when we get together for part two mate that's going to make some great informative decisions
So, mate, as always, thanks for setting the scene.
We look forward to your deep dive in part two next week.
And thanks again for your time on the show today, mate.
Pleasure.
Well, as I've always said, knowledge is about reading the past,
but it takes real wisdom to predict the future.
So if you're looking for proven property wisdom
to guide your investment decisions,
have a read of Simon's full 2022 property market report
on his website at propertyology.com.au
or reach out to Simon and the Propertyology team.
You're watching Realty Talk,
your go-to place for all things property.
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KnowHow has helped over 1,900 homeowners and investors secure more than $800 million in
property wealth. So get set to live more, work less and live your legacy. Want to know how to
invest in your freedom, visit knowhowproperty.com.au. Greetings and welcome. Now, as we've said many
times before here on Realty Talk, most investors tend to focus on how much money they're likely to
make without considering the risks and how to protect their investments. In other words,
investors tend to focus just on the returns without properly considering the risks. They
concentrate on how much money they'll gain without looking at how much they stand to lose.
So to balance the books so that you're looking at investments from all sides to make better informed decisions, we're joined by our resident risk management and superannuation expert, Darren Kingdon of Kingdon Financial Services, who's also the author of his most recent book, Master Your Super.
So welcome back to the show, Darren.
G'day, Bushy. How are you going? Great to see you again.
Always good to catch up with you, mate. And we love your insights, particularly around the super space in particular.
But Darren, just to kick things off with some context around the old investment reward and
risk exercise, where do you think that real estate fits in on the risk and return scale?
Look, I think, yeah, that old risk and return or risk and possible return scale, as I like
to call it, because one never knows where things are going to head in the short term.
But if we think of, I guess, the extremities of risk and return, like we've got cash and
one end of the spectrum which is usually regarded as a low risk low return or some people might say
some risk and no return these days given where interest rates currently are and then you've got
cryptocurrency probably at the other end of the spectrum that's well known for its volatility
it's gone backwards six times and 50 percent or more since its inception what bitcoin has
particularly so they're i guess at the extreme ends of the spectrum when you look at things on
an asset class perspective. We're thinking about direct real estate, such as residential,
commercial, industrial real estate. That, I believe, is pretty much in the middle.
And I guess we sort of isolate that a little bit more. Residential real estate, I think,
is somewhat lower risk, lower return than commercial real estate. And there is a bit
of extra risk associated with commercial real estate, just because of the potentially litigious
nature of some of the leases there's often disputes around who has to pay what at different
times and there can be longer periods of um of no tenancy with commercial real estate um that's
on probably on the direct side of things and then if we think about listed real estate well that
starts to sort of push out towards um you know the stock market level of risk and return slightly
higher risk and and slightly higher return um the only other caveat to that bushy was well if we it
Depending on how you purchase it, if we purchase real estate with debt, then we are bringing in extra risks into the equation.
There could be an interest rate hike that we need to budget on, that there's going to be extra costs associated with borrowings.
And each time you borrow, interest rates have never been down forever, as long as they have been.
So we've got to be prepared on that side of things as well.
So if there is debt in the equation, that still starts to creep out the risk return.
but it starts in the middle, in my view. Yeah, great. So sort of centrally placed
compared to the other alternatives. So how often do you think investors need to expect
negative returns then, Darren? Yeah, well, I think it often gets forgotten about a little
bit in the direct real estate sense or owning property directly. A couple of interesting,
there's a lot of always very interesting case studies on this. I noticed in the Vanguard
index of its annual sort of report listed Australian real estate produced a negative return
every 7.5 years over the last 30 year period since 1990 listed international real estate
was at around five every five years there was a negative return expected and also I noticed on
the Australian residential housing front there was an interesting report by
Matusik over the period from 1970, so a longer period of time, 1970 to 2021, despite there
being an average return of a tick over 7%, the actual negative return experiences was
one every three years, which might be surprising to some, albeit that I guess during that 70s
and early 80s period, there were some ructions in the market going off the gold standard
and some deflationary forces and things like that.
so probably in summary look you could sort of say you know in that three to every three to
eight years you could expect a negative return yeah I think that's well summed up from our own
experience Darren the property cycle takes about on average if you look at the last 30 years at
least to go through a full cycle it's every 15 years and during that cycle where there's always
an expectation from our front that there's going to be a uh a five to ten percent correction at
at some point in time so that that tends to line up pretty neatly with uh what you've described
there so uh but the real point is you're making is that uh a lot of investors go in particularly
with property never expecting it to uh see any negative result well those of us have been into
into it long enough no that's not the case so uh yeah well pointed out so um getting back on the
property front then what are the options as you see it to obtain exposure uh to property for
potential buyers look i think there are there are three main baskets we've got the the direct
ownership route so you or maybe others in partnership perhaps go and buy a property
jointly um and and that's a that's a great way um from an investment financial education standpoint
to do it that way and what what the what we tend to find in that sort of environment you know
Investing like that does have a lower correlation to the stock market.
And when we start to think about diversification and trying to have all the bases covered across all the different economic seasons,
then direct property can act as a really nice hedge in that environment.
But I guess that's on the positive side is that, well, that's what can occur.
but on the negative side, you've still got the lumpy nature
of the asset and it's potentially illiquid in type of investment.
So we've always got to be planning for that.
So that's sort of one of the direct, and then we start
to get into more of the managed type of investment.
So that might be available for retail or wholesale investors.
And there's different, there's many myriad of products
out there in that front.
A lot of that is in the domain of the financial advisors, but we've got to be a bit conscious in that managed type of context.
It's generally sold as being a liquid type of investment, but history has sort of showed that sometimes there can be liquidity issues, depending if there's a run on these types of funds and too many people are asking for their money at once.
Yep.
So that's the second one.
And then the third one I think I alluded to before,
which is just in that listed real estate,
such as the Real Estate Investment Trust, or REITs as they're known,
they start to then have a higher correlation to the stock market,
as we just pointed out, but there is a higher level
of liquidity in that type of investment as well.
So they're probably the three categories or the three baskets
of real estate investing that I think are mainly out there
at the moment yeah no spot on so uh putting that all into context then what do you consider to be
the best ways for investors to start their real estate investment journey down i think i think
not the first one just go i think going directly um and look and the caveat of that is is well if
you're in the um in the real estate game for the long haul and you're really looking to improve
your financial education then then i think the first thing you can do is look if you can find
a great mentor um somebody that's been there done that in the property front that's made a lot of
mistakes that you can learn from you benefit from their experience um so you really do if you've got
that financial education mindset then then i think that's the that's the optimum way to go um
i mean in terms of um um when we think about real estate um and oh yeah so and just sort of knowing
the numbers on the on the you know the property as well so when you start to brainstorm and
workshop with a mentor or with a buyer's agent just knowing the numbers because there's an awful
lot of expenses that are associated with property so getting a handle on on the numbers and it is
a big deal it's a big investment for people buying into property so you want to try to tip those odds
in your favor as much as you possibly can yeah no very well said there mate so i'd really want
to thank you for your quite timely insights again today, Darren, and thanks again for your time on
the show today. Great to see you, Bushy. Thanks, Darren. Well, there's a very timely reminder that
there's no such thing as high returns without risk. You just need to be aware of them and know
how to mitigate them before you start. So if you're looking for guidance in this area, reach
out to Darren and the team at Kingdom Financial Services if you'd need guidance in this very
important side of the equation. You're watching Australia's most popular property show. So stay
with us for more here on Realty Talk. Property deductions can save you thousands of dollars each
year. To make sure you maximize deductions, you need to work with the most experienced
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Greetings and welcome.
Now, in the cut and thrust world of property management,
the old days of tenants responding
to letting ads in the paper is long gone,
as social media and tech
continue to transform the industry.
So to dig into this tech transformation,
we're joined by Adam Hines,
the National Business Development Manager of Sorted Services, who work closely with property
managers and are Australia's first all-in-one home services marketplace, allowing you to connect
everything you need for your home all in one place. So welcome to Realty Talk, Adam.
Thanks, Bushy. Welcome. Thanks for having me.
But looking forward to getting into this subject. To kick things off,
mate, what are some of the ways that property managers are using social media to effectively
reach renters i think uh from what i've seen i think more the pandemic's forced the industry
to pivot the new social media a lot more i think the biggest one is via virtual inspections i think
especially melbourne based uh the second probably the second lockdown they really started to use
virtual inspections going in as a tenant was moving out and actually doing inspection at the
time via video and then live streaming that out to facebook i felt that was probably the biggest
part where they were using the social media over that time uh probably over the last especially
over the last couple of years through COVID.
Yeah, it's been pretty effective in that regard,
particularly for people who can't get to the property
for one reason or another.
Absolutely.
On the flip side of that, Adam,
what types of tech platforms are renters now using and why?
I think they've still got the traditional listing sites,
realestate.com, Domain, et cetera.
But again, they're using Facebook.
There's application sites
where they're able to apply for your properties,
how to pay their rent.
There's multiple ways of paying their rent.
So looking at different platforms and sites
to be able to do that,
not just traditional BPAY or direct debit and obviously once you're in the property
using maintenance so reporting your maintenance back so again there's different technology and
social media platforms are able to do that via that area. I think from a tenant's perspective
they're trying to find tech platforms that are easily accessible for all your transactions and
keeping connected at the one time that's where it's sort of rather help with that. Yeah no that's
really interesting so sort of stepping back from that for a minute then from from your
assorted services perspective are you finding a high volume of new business inquiries from
property managers and renters coming via social media then i think it's a bit of both talking a
lot of the agents we talk to there's still that traditional word of mouth repeat business cold
calling your traditional way of getting your properties on board and there's now that
non-traditional which is becoming the traditional norm is the facebook google reviews um tenants
are able to now look at and landlords are now able to look at um all the different platforms
to be able to look at if a property manager has been good, bad,
indifferent, and able to work through their business that way.
Yeah, so yeah, an exciting era that we're moving into.
Really appreciate you sharing these eye-opening insights with us, Adam,
and thanks for joining us on the show today.
Thanks, Bushy.
Well, here's just further evidence that our always-on social media
smartphone world is changing the way we live and the way we do business,
both quickly and effectively, all in the palm of our hand.
and if you want to take this to the next level check out sorted services.com where you can hook
up your electricity gas internet insurance removal or some more with just a few taps on your phone
keep watching realty talk your go-to place for all things property
well that's another wrap of this week's show a big shout out to our special guests simon presley
Darren Kingdon, and Adam Hines. And to make sure you don't miss an episode of Australia's
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for their ongoing support.
I'm Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property Finance
and I look forward to seeing you again next week.
Miss something in this week's show or want to catch up on past shows?
Do it anytime at realty.com.au
where we connect buyers, sellers and agents differently.
