Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Realty Talk: The 2022 BMM Property Market Forecast Part 2

Episode Date: January 21, 2022

What will the winds of change bring to the property this year? In the concluding show of our special 2 part series, Bushy Martin continues to interview more of the country’s leading property commentators to unveil the gold from the recently released 2022 Bricks & Mortar Media Property Market Forecasts report. To kick things off, the Chair of PIPA Peter Koulizos shares his national forecast, followed by Kate Hill from Adviseable’s predictions on what is likely to unfold across the country. Then Justin Nickerson with a take on the Brisbane market, complimented by Billy Mitchell from Century 21 Platinum’s view of Queensland’s Sunshine Coast and surrounds. Ben Plohl rounds out the show with his outlook on the Sydney market.   And if you want to read all of the details from these and other property experts, grab yourself a copy of the full BMM report by clicking on the link on our home page at www.realty.com.au RealtyTalk is your trusted voice in property investment and Australia’s most popular online property show.  RealtyTalk is brought to you by Realty, Australia’s leading search and social property distribution platform that helps investors like you beat the crowd, giving you the earliest access to property opportunities, listings, and insights. Check out Realty. RealtyTalk is hosted by top property investment expert, author, and founder of KnowHow Property, Bushy Martin. Find out how Bushy’s KnowHow team helps investors unlock freedom with finance and property here, and check out Bushy’s podcast Get Invested.  RealtyTalk is supported by BMT, a company that helps property investors save thousands of dollars each year by maximizing tax deductions from investment properties. Find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Realty Talk, the show that brings together the country's most authoritative and respected property experts. Follow us on all the socials and subscribe for updates and exclusive offers. Realty Talk is powered by realty.com.au, connecting buyers, sellers and agents differently. Greetings and welcome to this week's Realty Talk, the longest running and most popular property show in Australia. I'm Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property Finance. And this week, we continue our series of special shows that will open your eyes and ears to the potential property opportunities in the year ahead. Today, in the conclusion of our special two-part series,

I continue interviews with the country's leading property commentators to reveal more of the gold from the recently released 2022 Bricks and Mortar Media Property Market Forecast Report. This week, we kick off with national property predictions from the property professor and the Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia, Peter Klesos. We then enjoy complimentary commentary on what's likely to happen across the country from advisables Kate Hill.

Justin Nickerson of Apollo Auctions then drills down to give us his hands-on take on the Brisbane market, supplemented by Billy Mitchell from Century 21's Platinum's View of Queensland's Sunshine Coast and Surrounds. Ben Ploll rounds out the show with his outlook on what's in store for the Sydney market. And if you want to read all of the details from these and a host of other property experts, make sure you grab yourself a coffee of the full BMM report by clicking on the link on our homepage at realty.com.au.

We've got a mountain of gold to unpack again today, so let's get on with the show. greetings and welcome we're now joined by a fellow adelaidean and chair of the property investment professionals of australia peter kalesos for his national views on the year that was and the year that will be in property so welcome back to the show peter thank you bushy and happy new year too likewise mate always love hearing your words of wisdom mate so we might just kick off by having a look back on last year. And you quite rightly predicted that property markets across the nation were shaping up for a stellar year. So how do you feel that property actually performed against your predictions? And probably more importantly,

what varied, if anything, and why? So I am very rare that I get it all right, Bushy. But on this particular occasion, I did. So I said that 2021 would be a better year than 2020. And it certainly was where most capital cities and nationally we've experienced house price increases of over 20%. The one thing that hasn't happened as yet is the lowering of demand for office property. And I think it's mainly because generally commercial property leases run for several years. so you know if the lease ended in 2021 then i would imagine people have negotiated for shorter terms or less space and as time goes on and those leases are up for renewal i'm sure the same thing will happen we had a presentation by jll last week who picked up a fantastic acronym

it's called uh f wow f wow what does that stand for way of work future way of work so what they're doing in like in some of the large commercial buildings uh is they're providing amenities to encourage people to come to work imagine that bushy that would never have happened in our day mate to encourage their workers to come to work rather than work from home so they're going to use some of their space for gyms so yeah you can stay at home and work but if you come into work you can also go to the gym either before work or lunchtime and yoga and meditation and an end of trip facilities such as bike racks and showers and stuff like that so uh so they're already they already know that there will be less demand for office workers to come into the city

so unfortunately they have to use some of the space to attract them so they're not going to earn any income from the the gym or the the yoga room or the meditation room but they have to have that sort of stuff to um to attract them yeah it's uh gonna be a really interesting mix in that whole uh commercial office and retail space and days ahead and the the costs of refurbishing and refitting aren't cheap so it presents some real challenges. Turning to this year then Peter what's your overall view for how markets are likely to perform in 2022? So I think next year will still be a positive year and that is property prices will continue to go up but not at the same rate as they're going up as they went up in 2021. One reason is there'll be more supply coming on and

We've already seen that in the last several weeks, and even some of the property data companies have come out and stated that there are far more new listings around now than there have been. Even though overall listings might be below the long-term average, there are far more new listings coming on now. I think also banks will lift their interest rates and or their assessment rates. so it'll make it harder for people to borrow money but those people that can borrow money they will be borrowing less money so that's going to be putting a cap on um property prices so far as rents are concerned i think that they've skyrocketed this year and i think they're going to continue to skyrocket next year because they've managed to skyrocket without hundreds of thousands of overseas migrants coming in so you know what what do you think is going to happen when when

they start coming in and one of the reasons is um bushy i'm not going to guess at your age but people have say my era because the market is so good we're cashing out so we're selling our investment properties and being bought by owner occupiers generally first-time buyers which is fantastic but then that's less options for renters i was speaking to one property manager in adelaide and he said and he's got a large rent role as well he said his landlords have sold more properties in the last nine months than in the previous 15 years that he's been in business yeah yeah and i'm doing that myself you know i'm at an age now where i'm getting closer to retirement and you know sell some properties to relieve some of the debt so i'm not going

back into the market but it's just a great time to cash out yeah i'm in exactly the same boat as you peter and doing exactly the same as we speak so uh great minds think alike there what are the the key drivers and you mentioned a couple already but the key drivers that we should watch out for that you're likely to influence properties direction nationally this year well it'll be i mean i think nationally we've done as much as we can that is australians like even though we had no interest overseas migration property prices went crazy so it'll be interesting to see what the overseas migration does overseas students they'll just they'll go back into the CBD apartments and those property prices will go back up to where they were

and property rents will go back up to where they were the companies that build purpose-built student accommodation will be very happy because they've virtually haven't had any income for the last two years but it'll be the overseas migrants that'll be that'll be the one to watch the influx of about 350,000 overseas migrants, about 150,000 students. That's a half a million extra bodies, Bushy. They're all going to live somewhere, mate. They're all going to live somewhere. Yeah, it's going to put some massive demand pressure on you.

You mentioned the lifting of assessment rates, and there'll be no doubt that APRA will get the banks to look at other macro-prudential measures, and you also sort of touted the potential lift in the cash rate. Do you think that's likely to occur, No, so I don't – look, the Reserve Bank knows much more about lifting cash rates than I do. So my forecast is in 2022, the cash rate won't go up.

But it doesn't mean banks won't lift their interest rates. Like last year, they increased their fixed interest rates. So, you know, there's obviously a relationship between the cash rate and the bank's interest rate, but they're not 100% correlated. No, spot on. Spot on. Regionalisation, what's your view on – that has been very surprising that it's continued i thought that in 2020 when covert hit a lot of

people moved to the regional areas to get out of the city generally renters because and it takes a lot of time and effort money to sell your house and go buy another house and then maybe in a year's time do the same you know a lot of transaction costs but for renters rather than renewing your lease in the city you can go get something in within commuting distance of the city well it doesn't even have to be commuting distance you know i've got a classic example i've got four kids one of my kids works for the federal government and her boss and her team and her workmates are in canberra she's working from adelaide and that's not extraordinary i mean i've heard of another one where they're working in adelaide but

work is based in london i mean it shouldn't come as a big surprise because for many years banks included have been outsourcing their stuff to overseas workers um but now we have australians living in australia but their work might be based somewhere else yeah yeah good call uh you've already mentioned some concerns around the cbd office retail space are there any other important sectors that we should watch out for in 2022 look for those people that are considering investing in commercial property because the yields on residential property have dropped so i have commercial property i mean i'm amazed that people are buying commercial property on a yield of three and a half and four percent i understand why because i can borrow at

three percent but those interest rates aren't going to stay at three percent forever no and i mean i'm bushy i'm sure you can remember back in the 90s when commercial property took a really big hit and that's mainly because interest rates skyrocketed yeah but you know when i say skyrocketed that's all relative even if interest rates double from three percent to six percent or they probably even if they go from three percent to five percent and your yield's four percent well where are you going to make it up you know one of the reasons people buy commercial property is they're generally positively geared from day one if you're negatively geared you know that so i'm concerned about the off a cbd market i think co-working will be an area that increases and suburban co-working spaces

yeah but the big one to watch out for will be industrial property or or nowadays we call it logistics because we're going to need to store more stuff so in the 50 years ago we used to make a lot of stuff and store a lot of stuff in our warehouses then we went to just in time delivery where we we only had enough in the warehouse for maybe a week supply but now we're going to move something to that that's that i call just in case uh where you know let's have enough in there just in case we have another pandemic or there's another disruption to the supply chain let's make sure that we've got enough stuff in our warehouses so i can see that to be a big growth area but at the expense of office property and retail property

yeah no good call and i love that term just in case uh are there any other surprising elements that you believe are going to likely to have a lasting impact on property this year peter yeah look i i thought that people would move would slowly move back to the cities after moving to regional areas but this year sorry not this year last year regional areas outperformed capital cities which very rarely happens yeah uh and you know if you've got a family and you put the kids in school and your work might be based in the city so work's not a problem or you may have found work in their regional area well there's no reason to shift is there i mean the cost of living is much cheaper out there and if you've gone to lifestyle locations

like coastal locations i mean the day-to-day is pretty good when you come home from work you can go for a swerve go for a swim or if you're maybe you've done a tree change you can go up into the hills so it'll be interesting to see how regional centres within commuting distance of the cities perform this year yeah i agree i think the underpinning thing there is how good the internet technology because if the infrastructure is there and they can support very easy the work from home exercise then those areas will do well those that don't have that level of fast internet support will probably struggle now i agree i agree now awesome work mate well we always love your insights peter and we really want to thank you again for your time

on the show today my pleasure thank you thanks mate well there's more evidence that property's likely to continue to do well across the country in the year ahead albeit with more sobering variable growth resulting from increased supply and reduced demand and if you want to grab yourself a full copy of Peter's forecast, along with other interesting latest predictions on what's likely to happen with property this year, grab yourself a copy of the Bricks and Mortar Media 2022 Property Market Forecast Report on the realty.com.au homepage. And if you're looking for independent and transparent property advice to formulate your elite property team, make sure you engage of property investment professionals of Australia

or PIPA member that you can find at www.pipa.asn.au. Stay with us for more here on Realty Talk. Successful property investment is a game of finance. Do you have the right team and the right game plan? Realty Talk is brought to you by KnowHow Property. More than mortgage brokers, Bushy Martin and his team of investment architects set you up with a sustainable strategy structured to lower your costs, tax, risk and stress while increasing your capacity for growth. KnowHow has helped over 1,900 homeowners and investors secure more than $800 million in property wealth.

So get set to live more, work less and live your legacy. Want to know how to invest in your freedom? Visit knowhowproperty.com.au. Greetings and welcome. Now to provide us with an alternative national view on the upcoming year in property across the country, Accomplished Property Investment Advisor and Buyers Agent Kate Hill from Advisable now joins us. So welcome to Realty Talk, Kate. Hello, very happy to be with you. Yeah, really looking forward to your insights on the year ahead. So let's get straight into that what's your overall view about how markets are likely to perform in 2022 well i have to be

honest with you i'm not a big one for making predictions but i think my feeling will be that things will quieten down a little bit i think there'll be sustained growth on some level in many markets i'm trying not to be too vague here but it it can't in many markets i'm has been so look i i think the general consensus is that you know it was already slowing down towards the end of 2021 yeah we will continue to slow it can't like i say it can't be it can't sustain it can't be sustainable on that same level but it will continue to grow i think there is still a lot of uncertainty around in terms of what new you know COVID strains might come across travel can you travel can't you travel should you travel so I think there's still people do still have money

available because they're not traveling there's certain things they're hesitating on doing a lot of investors have money to spend because they have equity in their homes but it is still a watch and wait trying to give you yeah it's sorry i don't mean that to be vague but it's well just it's it's still a watch and wait it's watch and see yeah a lot of dynamics so it's very hard to read the tea leaves that's for sure um what are some of the key drivers that you believe that we need to watch out for that you think are likely the most property markets direction then okay i think um a big one will be listings the number of listings that are available it's you very very basic supply and demand ratios so obviously the past 18 months well let's say

let's say the year from November 2020 to the end of 2021 we certainly had a lot of demand and very little quality supply yeah and until that changes we are starting to see that change certainly towards the end in you know back in in December 2021 we did start to see that change a little bit I think that's natural as Christmas approaches and people like oh you know we're all everyone's exhausted let's just hold fire but there are still listings out there so the frenzy sort of died down a little bit so I think that there will perhaps be a little bit more confidence in the market from people selling and upgrading yeah there will be more investors around they were starting to come back more strongly towards the end of 2021 so listings will play a big factor

in that also the number of migrants i'm very keen to see what's happening there we need them the government needs them we need them for the economy we're not letting them in that needs to change at some point and i think it will do there will obviously start that slowly as we were already seeing with students starting to come back they will need to start that slowly but i think there will be an onslaught or certainly in the queue to get in because of our stability perceived stability anyway from the outside and i think is genuine stability as well observing it from the inside yeah but just the sheer numbers and that demand from those people coming in from the outside i don't just obviously mean interstate migration so the uk um you know asia

etc so they will all want property and quite frankly i don't know where they're all going to live yes i'm seeing i'm seeing a big almost a rental crisis ahead because vacancy rates are already at their lowest levels in decades in many many areas yeah so and that's done that's us contained within australia you know so where all those people are going to live i don't know and If APRA make changes to investor lending, they're going to deepen a crisis that is already brewing. We'll see what happens there. Yeah, there's a lot of signalling in the media around it,

whether they follow through. And the signalling may actually just be enough to have the impact that they're looking to dampen the demand side. But some challenging times ahead there. So what are some of the important sectors that we should watch out for in 2022 then, Kay? um that was there and say the same same sectors that i've always been watching out for which really is your your middle to outer city ring your very strong regional centers i think

there's been um i flagged up danger signs on on my uh shameless flag a youtube channel um earlier on this year because so many areas have done well so many suburbs have done well in terms of value growth in the past 12 months that there has been there could be a bit of a danger for people to perceive that well you know anywhere buying anywhere you'll do okay I don't think that's the case I don't think that's ever been the case you still need to watch for those really basic investment fundamentals of population growth economic diversity or economic strength I should say and industry diversity you still need to make sure that those things are in place before you buy property to invest in obviously so all of those kind of your strong regional centres

middle to outer city ring really that's yeah we'll continue to do well but I'm not sure that there will be that sustained growth across every single market almost in Australia that there has been which has also been a very unusual um occurrence that doesn't normally happen that the same thing happens everywhere right it's markets within markets and i think we'll probably see a bit of a return to that yeah um and perhaps a bit more movement as our internal borders are opening more see what wa does um and just again sorry watch and wait really yeah yeah yeah no but it's i mean you've hit it on the head the the things don't change the the basic criteria are always going to be there we can sort of get ourselves distracted by the media noise that

likes to create this boom and bust type of psychology but uh end of the day it's diversity employment jobs uh infrastructure yeah they keep drivers yeah i love that so what are some of the surprising elements that uh you believe may have a lasting impact on property this year um that will have a lasting impact yeah um well i'm not sure really well if it's a surprise i'm not really sure what's going to happen um but i think just the the rate at which that growth did happen in 2021 if i can say that sort of from let's say from the end of 20 to the end of 21 the uh we we went from a holding pattern when covid first hit for the first six months to then things going bang utterly disco crazy and i don't think anybody expected that i think we

we thought with the number of listings and the demand still being relatively okay that there would be sustained growth things that certainly weren't going to crash the way they were being spruced that things would crash that certainly didn't happen so it was just the sheer level of it not happening the complete other end of the spectrum happening i think that took everybody by surprise you know 20 20 plus percent growth in many of our centers both regional and um and capital cities that took people by surprise and then the reluctance of people to sell you know just i think that hesitancy which is understandable perhaps not surprising so i think um i think we will just see the repeat of that but not on the same scale right yeah that would be if it happens

again on the same scale you can call me next year i will be surprised we can call it a surprise that surprised me yeah yeah i mean level yeah totally agree i think we've seen the uh compressed spring is is bounced out to its limits and it'll it's like water will find its level yeah look and having said that again you know bringing economics back into it we are now experiencing a labour shortage right so everywhere you look people are hiring are struggling to find good people so i think there will be some wage growth as we come up people will be able to afford the higher prices that we're having to pay for property now but like i say it just it cannot can't go on on that site on that same sustained level, unless they let in 200,000 migrants

by the end of March, which I think is unlikely. Yeah, yeah, agreed. But that second wave of migration will certainly increase demand as well. Yeah, yeah. Awesome thoughts. Well, I really want to thank you for sharing those insights with us today, Kate, and thanks again for your time on the show today. Any time.

Loved it. Thank you, Kate. Well, it appears that we're returning to more normal variable property market conditions around the country this year. We're buying the best property you can and holding it for as long as you can. We'll continue to provide the best results over the long term. Now, if you want to grab yourself a full copy of Kate's forecast, along with other industry latest predictions on what's likely to happen with property this year, grab yourself a copy of the Bricks and Mortar Media 2022 Property Market Forecast Report on the realty.com.au

homepage. You're watching Realty Talk, your trusted voice for all things property. Property deductions can save you thousands of dollars each year. To make sure you maximise deductions, you need to work with the most experienced quantity surveyor in the country. BMT Tax Depreciation is the leading specialist in the industry. They've completed over 700,000 tax deduction schedules for residential investment and commercial properties Australia-wide.

BMT guarantee to find double your fee in the first full financial year deductions. Call BMT on 1300 728 726 today for an obligation free quote. Welcome back. Well, we now turn our focus to the Brisbane market and to dive into the year that was and the year that will be for property around the Sunshine States capital. We're joined by leading auctioneer, Justin Nickerson of Apollo Auctions. So welcome to Realty Talk, Justin.

Thanks for having me, mate. Now, looking forward to jumping into what I think is going to be an interesting year in Brisbane. but before we do that let's have a look at last year's bricks and mortar forecast where you sort of indicated that Brisbane's strong finish to the year was set to continue and you made special note of the sweet spot of the outer inner ring suburbs that are sort of three to five k's from the CBD and you made note of the surprising move to people moving to buying home sight unseen after FaceTime tours became mainstream so how do you feel that property did actually perform against your

predictions for 2021? And what, if anything, varied and why? Yeah, look, I think it definitely continued on the same manner of what we sort of suggested, but to a much different level to what we had anticipated. It was an incredible year in so many different facets, you know, in the way that the market grew and accelerated was something that we just sort of really couldn't comprehend at the end of 2020 when it sort of looked like it was happening, but it definitely kicked into another year and that rise of interstate buyers uh interstate migration was incredibly um incredibly big as well it became almost unusual in the end of cool auctions without having a phone bit or an online bit of present just such was the strength of that interstate interest uh and people buying

homes with face onto a zoom to a site unseen um rather than being a you know once off occurrence became you know really a mainstream way of of transacting yeah no very interesting change in tide. But let's turn to the future now, Justin. I'd love to get your overall view about how the Brisbane market is likely to perform in 2022. Yeah, look, I think it's going to continue on much in the same as what it sort of has. There seems no reason that the current conditions really will drop off. The supply looks like it's going to remain limited and the demand is still going to remain very high. So I think we'll see more of the same. We have seen sellers' expectations in the latter part of 2021 becoming a slight barrier in some cases where, you know, an

expectation around a record price or an incredible price becomes, you know, the expected or the norm rather than an incredible result. And that could be a barrier to potentially more properties transacting. But all the facts is there to continue. It's going to continue to be a really buoyant year, I do think. Yeah. Yeah. Good stuff. Well, let's drill into some of the key drivers that you believe we need to watch out for that are likely to influence Brisbane's direction? Well, I think the continued interstate migration will be one. It'll be a very interesting study, I think,

to see whether there's sort of two schools of thought. One is that, you know, borders open, so that interstate migration will continue to kick up. The second school of thought is that people are more likely to want to move when they were oppressed, for lack of a better word. You know, they couldn't travel to see family. They couldn't go down to local coffee shops to get a coffee.

That was really sparking those people who really wanted to get out so that'll be an interesting thing to monitor um you know the ongoing effect of covid um living with that as the new normal will be interesting and then also um you know the potential of an election uh is always one that looms over the market landscape as well does that affect people's confidence um does that create some hesitation um i think if covid has taught us anything it's been that you know our market is pretty resilient even things that we thought would stop our market getting its tracks by COVID have actually done the opposite.

So an election, in theory, shouldn't really hold anyone back from buying or selling. But historically, we know people are more cautious when there's elections around the corner. So I think all those factors, and then there's probably a whole lot of factors that, you know, we can't even think of two years ago or two and a half years ago. You know, we never talked about social distancing or quarantine

or, you know, hygiene or any of those things. So, yeah, there's probably a whole lot of things that the Labor I believe, to surface, it may well affect it. Yeah, no, it's certainly a dynamic space. Are there any important sectors that we need to be watching out for in 2022, as you see in the Brisbane locale? Look, I think the apartment market will be one that bears monitoring. You know, the apartment market in Brisbane hasn't been a great one

for the last decade or so. I think now with maybe, you know, a bit of an uptick in the market, maybe less construction as to what has been happening, you know that may stimulate that market somewhat so that's going to be one that probably bears um there's a bit of monitoring uh and also any any sort of new product that's coming out to the market we've known a real uh noticed a real change in people traditionally were looking for properties they could renovate put their put their heart and soul into um the most popular options we've done across the last few months particularly in brisbane have been finished products that it's

probably a reckon um probably a recognition that people actually don't want to get in and renovate they understand the cost of renovation have blown out time frames to renovate have blown out as well they'd rather buy a finished product so something that's new and coming to the market probably an interesting sector to keep an eye on as well yeah no okay and uh are there any other sort of wild card or surprising elements that you believe may have a lasting impact on the Brisbane market look not really not outside those ones I think we've named um I think you know I said if I knew the answer to that one I'd uh I'd be in a lot more important job than one the one I'm in and I think there's a lot of factors that just sort of sit there and aren't recognized until they become

something that's right in front of right in front of your eyes I think outside of the election and the ongoing you know health and and uh economic challenges that COVID faces is interstate migration settled down what happens with all the expats have all of them come home now um is there any international migration that occurs all those sorts of things are still things that uh I think rather than get to chapter one or chapter two of those books. So they're going to be long books to read, but they're going to be pretty interesting tales by the end, I think. They are.

I guess the one thing that I wouldn't mind your comments on, Justin, I would have thought given what's happened with COVID, et cetera, there's probably likely to be a lot more in-room auctions and probably auctions now are something happening seven days a week rather than just on weekends. Is that a trend you're seeing in Brisbane? Yeah, look, it was always a bit of a myth. People would always ask me,

the two questions I always got as being an auctioneer, one was um do you talk fast and the answer is yes but not as fast as catalog she is the second one is people always say to me what do you do during the week um where they sort of think i think you sit at home and you watch ellen and days of our lives all week and then they roll you out on a saturday and a sunday and then you go back in your in your box um it's very much changed the landscape this year we're doing auctions every day of the week and throughout the day we sold the property two weeks ago for 12 million dollars under the hammer there was one o'clock on a wednesday uh with a large crowd there so the day of the week and the time of the day has definitely

become less hyper focused on saturdays uh and the second thing to that is the venue of the auction has changed as well is um it's all well and good being on site but if you have restrictions that stop you from being on site that all of a sudden you can't do it there you know unfavorable weather conditions so a number of in-room auctions have taken place and a number of virtual auctions as well and that's something that'll continue to go on uh the tyranny of distance is no longer one that sort of bounds anyone. You know, you can have bidders from anywhere bidding and you can have an auctioneer

that's anywhere running the auction. You just need to be able to handle it through an online platform. So both of those things, I think, will be things that just continue to become mainstream as we go along. Yeah, very interesting, mate. Look, really appreciate you sharing

those hands-on insights, Justin, and thanks for your time on the show today. Pleasure. Thanks for having me. All the best. Thanks, mate. Well, it's no great surprise that Justin and other industry leaders continue to predict that Brisbane is actually very well poised to become the best performing

capital city next year as the exodus to lifestyle continues. And if you want to get all of the details of the 2022 Bricks and Mortar Media Property Market Forecast Report, just jump on the homepage link at realty.com.au. Stay with us for more here on Realty Talk. Successful property investment is a game of finance. Do you have the right team and the right game plan realty talk is brought to you by know how property more than mortgage brokers bushy martin and his team of investment architects set you up with a sustainable strategy structured to lower your costs tax risk and stress while increasing your capacity for growth know how has helped over 1900 homeowners and investors secure more than 800 million dollars in property

wealth. So get set to live more, work less, and live your legacy. Want to know how to invest in your freedom? Visit knowhowproperty.com.au. Hi, and welcome back. Now, South East Queensland property has been performing very well in recent times as a result of the exodus to lifestyle, with Brisbane and surrounds now recording the fastest pace of growth around the country, according to latest CoreLogic data. So to get a hands-on view of where property's heading in the area by a top-selling agent on the ground in and around the Sunshine Coast, we're joined by Billy Mitchell, Director of Century 21 Platinum Agents in Gympie and Kalala Coast. So welcome to the show, Billy. Good afternoon, Bushy. Thanks for having me along.

Yeah, great to have a chat in what is proving to be a red-hot part of the world in property at the moment, mate. But before we sort of look into the future, how did property perform against your predicted view in 2021 oh mate i didn't think it would be as good as what it was in 2021 although my predictions were for further growth again um yeah i mean and even if we rewind back pre-covid i thought especially the gimpy in greater region um we're quite dominant in um was always heading in the right direction um but where it took off from march 2020 through to the end of 2021 has just been phenomenal so i would i would say it's yeah well ahead of my predictions and most of other people's mate i'd imagine yeah totally great so um moving to the future then

and looking at ahead for 2022 what's your overall view about how markets are likely to perform in your area yeah i think the markets will still continue to grow bushy that's that's that's that's what i think um i think there'll be another maybe eight to ten percent growth in 2022 um and i think um i think we can we can say that quite confidently especially in my area our you know the rental demand's still very high we've got a lot a lot of infrastructure happening around um southeast queensland um so you know and obviously with what's happening in the world we're quite a quite a spot everyone's sort of got a big circle around right so i i hopefully that'll continue and it's still a positive market in 2022. yeah totally great so from where you sit then uh

you know sort of hands-on in what what's happening on the ground what are some of the key drivers that you think we need to watch out for that go and influence your market's direction this year yeah i think the rental market's the number one indicator for us um making sure that the demand's still there i mean on average at the moment we're getting 25 to 35 applications every property that hits the market within the first couple of days of that property hitting the market so so that i think is the key the key one to look out for in our area is to make sure the rental market's still strong and i think the property prices will hold up as well as long as a few other things but if you would ask me to one that'd be one i'd be looking out for yeah okay and are

there any other important sectors that we need to keep an eye on in the year ahead no i think interest rates will play a big part in that as well you know i don't think they they can get too far ahead of us though for 2022 or 2023 so um yeah i think that obviously employment which is the best it's best it's ever been um sorry mate i may have lost you there there we go no um yeah the the employment which is which is really good at the moment there's everybody screaming out for great employees especially in my area at the moment so I think those few things mate but yeah all in all I think it's going to be a pretty good year. Yeah totally agree are there any sort of wild card or surprising elements that might come out of the Woolberg that you think will have

an impact on the market locally? I don't think so I mean you know we never know it's really uncertain times at the moment with COVID so we'll just have to see how now that the borders are opening up and how the market reacts to that um i still think we're going to be a um you know a place that everyone's got their circle around us um but just to see how it's handled and all those sort of things and what sort of a reaction we get when the borders do open up and we you know we're living with this with this virus you know so whether that's a surprise mate i don't think so anymore it's probably more part of the normal than a surprise but that would be one thing that i'd be interested to see how it all plays out um and see how we do business in 2022 that

might be a lot different than how we did it in the last couple of years yeah yeah no good call well look mate i really appreciate you taking time out of your busy day to give us your first-hand projections billy yeah and really want to thank you for coming on the show today no worries bushy thank you all the best okay so if you want to grab yourself a full copy of billy's forecast along with other industry leaders predictions on what's likely to happen with property right across the country this year so that you can make better informed decisions, grab yourself a copy of the Bricks and Mortar Media 2022 Property Market Forecast Report, which you can get on realty.com.au homepage. Keep watching for more here on Realty Talk. Property depreciation is the natural wear

and tear of a building and its assets. Property investors can claim depreciation as a tax deduction each financial year. Depreciation is a non-cash deduction. This means you don't need to spend any money in order to claim it. On average, BMT tax depreciation find residential investors almost $9,000 in first full financial year deductions. Call BMT on 1300 728 726 today for an obligation free quote. Hi and welcome. Now with Sydney being the largest and the second strongest housing market last year with prices climbing over 25%. We're now joined by leading local buyers agent Ben Plowell, the founder and principal of BFP Property Buyers. He gave us his hands-on account of the Sydney market. So welcome to Realty Talk, Ben. Yeah, g'day Bushy. Great to

have you on, mate. And it's certainly been a very active time in property generally. So you were having a bit of a reflection on last year and looking at your forecast at that stage, you sort of predicted that the Sydney strong buy demand for the Hills District was set to continue and you felt that expat activity across the city was likely to keep surging. So how do you feel property actually performed against your predictions last year

and what varied, if anything, and why, as you say? Yeah, so I think last year we were forecasting that it would remain a very strong seller's market, which I think played out quite nicely here in the Hills District, but broadly, I think, across multiple markets in the country. So, yeah, strong seller's market. I think the demand that we were expecting was probably, you know, I think it sort of shocked everyone with the level of, you know,

unprecedented demand that we've seen in the markets. That was still in line with what we were expecting, but I think it even pushed above what everyone's thoughts were. But I think being that strong seller's market was, you know, definitely played out nicely with, you know, with all-time, you know, stock stock shortages or that supply levels being um being very tight yeah interesting to see how that pounds out in the year ahead so let's you know sort of turning to the future now ben what's your overall view about how well the city markets likely perform this year yeah look i think i think

the seller's market's going to remain at least for the first half of the year um i think the demand levels will taper off, but it's really going to depend on a couple of real key factors being the trajectory of interest rates, what happens with overseas migrants, whether they return to the country, because that's going to, I think, have a massive impact on the direction of the market. Yeah, absolutely agree. Well, it's sort of, you've touched on that. Are there any other key drivers that you think we need to watch out for that will influence Sydney's direction uh look yeah i think yeah key key drivers will be the trajectory of interest rates what happens with with overseas migrants um and i guess overall just confidence um where

where is consumer sentiment um going to be um you know uh this year um what happens you know with this evolving pandemic what's that going to um to mean with with people around job security etc i think that's going to play a significant part look hopefully i think we the way we left off at the back end of last year you know things are moving in a positive direction I think confidence is returning the economy is is becoming quite buoyant I think leading into this year you know let's hopefully see that that continue but I think that's something that's going to be on the back of everyone's mind. Yeah no well read so in amongst all that what are some of those sort of important sectors that you think we need to be watching out for in 2022? Yes I think the back

of last year we saw a significant amount of baby boomers really starting to make some change in in the direction of their you know their housing makeup so we've seen especially up here in the hills and a few other broader parts of sydney that we operate in a lot of baby boomers wanting to sell out of a large family home and moved or downsized into you know um you know smaller accommodation and i think that's going to continue um into this year with you know obviously with um prices still or vendor expectations still quite high people are thinking well perhaps now is the right time to to sell out a larger home and get into something uh you know smaller for retirement yeah yep that'll be interesting to see yeah how that pans out and sort of finally then are there

any sort of wild card or surprising elements that you believe that may have a lasting impact on the local sydney market yeah bushy i think another key trait that we saw last year that i think will continue on is you know is the old bank of mum and dad so i think with the market rising so significantly um i think lots of first home buyers or young buyers have have had that issue of coming up with a deposit and that's that's something that we we saw quite often even with clients that we've worked with um you know young sydney buyers probably got the income levels to support you know from a borrowing capacity but just coming up with that that initial deposit was always a a challenge so i think you know leveraging off or getting some support from mum and dad um i think

that trend is gonna is gonna continue yeah no well picked well look uh really appreciate you taking some time out of your busy day to share your grassroots insights ben and thanks for your time on the show today yeah thanks bushy thanks ben well it appears that the sydney market is perhaps set to moderate a bit this year with the the boomers and the bank of mum and dad supporting ongoing growth and a little bit of buyer fatigue starting to creep in but as Ben as well said there's still plenty of opportunity and if you want to read Ben's full forecast along with those of leading property predictions from industry professionals right across the country then grab yourself a copy of the full 2022 BMM property market forecast report which you can

find on our homepage link at realty.com.au. You're watching Realty Talk, your trusted voice for property. Welcome back. Well, I hope you've enjoyed part two of our deep dive into this year's 2022 BMM Property Market Forecast Report. Before we sign off, let me summarise some more key takeaways on this year's predictions from today's industry leaders. Property prices are expected to moderate this year with work from home set to be an ongoing game changer.

Property markets are set to return to out-of-sync markets cycles and until listing numbers go up, prices are likely to continue to rise. The Brisbane Oxford market continues in record territory with interstate migration looming as a key driver. Buyer demand for lifestyle markets is not likely to slow down anytime soon with property price pressure to continue in areas like the Sunshine Coast and surrounds. Meanwhile, the Sydney market is set to moderate due to buyer fatigue but opportunities are still going to exist. So if you're a real estate professional or a property investor looking to make well-informed decisions in the year ahead, you can't afford to miss all of the details from today's guests

and other industry leaders in Brick and Mortar Media's 2022 BMM Property Market Forecast Report that you can find on our homepage at realty.com.au. Well, that brings us to the end of another action-packed show. another big thanks to our special guests peter kalesos kate hill justin nickerson billy mitchell and ben plowell for sharing their insights and to make sure that you don't miss an episode of australia's most informative property show subscribe to really talk on apple podcasts google podcasts spotify youtube or wherever you listen and make sure that you sign up on the realty.com.au homepage to get every episode in your inbox every week. And while you're there,

make sure that you check out one of Australia's most extensive range of property for sale from over 7,000 agents nationally. Thanks again to realty.com.au and BMT Tax Depreciation for their ongoing support. I'm Bushy Martin from Know How Property Finance. I look forward to seeing you again next week. miss something in this week's show or want to catch up on past shows do it anytime at realty.com.au where we connect buyers sellers and agents differently