Property Hub - Investment Insights & Inspiration - Realty Talk: The cause and effect of high migration
Episode Date: December 2, 2023Overseas migration is frequently being called out as one of the primary factors influencing the housing market. In the face of high interest rates, low consumer sentiment and stretched housing afforda...bility, values and rents continue to rise and vacancy rates plummet as net overseas migration has hit record highs. Eliza Owen the Head of Research at CoreLogic sets the record straight with five key insights into migration and the housing market. NEW – join our Facebook group, The Property Hub Collective: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1857513011165686 Join the Property Hub community on Substack! Sign up to get Australian property news, opinion, and episodes in your inbox: https://propertyhubau.substack.com/ Subscribe to RealtyTalk on the Property Hub channel: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Email Property Hub is a collaboration between Bushy Martin from KnowHow Property, Kevin Turner from Realty, Andrew Montesi from Apiro Marketing and Apiro Media, and Australia’s largest independent podcast network DM Media. Business and partnership enquiries: antony@dm.org.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hello once again and welcome to this week's Realty Talk Show.
Only a fool assumes they know what an insurance policy actually covers.
Unfortunately, they find out after an event that they're really not covered at all and it's far too late.
That's when you feel like a bit of an ass, and I hope that's not you.
If we were to cover every possible type of event that might affect a residential property,
the premium would be so expensive that it would be unattainable.
That's Wayne Johnson. Now Wayne's a specialist landlord insurer.
He's along to reveal what you might not know about the cover that you have.
And that's going to be first up in this week's show.
And then Bushy will be joined by Eliza Owen from CoreLogic.
On average, compared to the broader Australian population, they're younger and they're more
skilled.
So that tends to increase Australia's productive capacity.
Bushy and Eliza will catch up on the heated discussions around migration and its influence
on the housing market.
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realty talk and your host bushy martin now it's a common misconception that your insurance covers
absolutely everything landlords may think that they they'll be reimbursed by an insurer for
any and every kind of rental loss or damage but sadly this isn't the case and often you only
discover this after the event when it's too late and you're left covering the often significant
costs. So it's important that you know what your landlord insurance policy doesn't cover
and or selecting a specialist insurer that gives you the best available protection.
To dive into this rarely considered but very important subject and reveal what isn't normally
covered with your landlord insurance along with some top tips, we're joined by Wayne Johnson,
the State Manager of New South Wales and South Australia for Specialist Landlord Insurer
EBM Rent Cover. So welcome back to Realty Talk, Wayne.
Thank you very much, Bushy. Good to be here again.
Absolutely. Now, Wayne, this is a subject that very few people spend much time thinking about at all.
And they just think that apples are compared with apples when it comes to insurance, but clearly not the case.
So to set the scene, why aren't landlords covered and reimbursed by an insurer for any kind of rental loss or damage?
OK, it's a balance between the risk factor and the premium factor, to be quite frank.
insurers need to construct products that are sustainable and to be quite frank if we were
to cover every possible type of event that might affect a residential property the premium would
be so expensive that it would be unattainable and so we have what's called an underwriter which
assesses the risk and between them and the product retailer there's a need to work out
how best we can structure this to include as much as we can but at an affordable price and look I
don't blame people we spoke a little earlier about um you know looking at your health insurance and
trying to compare your electricity bills it is a difficult thing but um a specialist policy will
make it as easy as possible because there are no need for any add-ons or bolt-ons it's very clear
what you're covered for but it is important to understand what you're not covered for
absolutely right well uh to sort of uh set the scene again for the the whole exercise can you
start by giving us a bit of a a quick summary of what landlord insurance protections are not
usually covered in standard policies i think it's about seven different areas that we're going to
dive into the detail later yeah no good well foreseeable events um imminent events um
retrospective things that have happened in the past um where building defects are involved uh
pests and vermin, mice plagues for example, mould, mould is a big one, it's worth a good discussion
and also tenants contents and relocation which is well worth a discussion. Yeah awesome well
let's now sort of break these down individually and dive into the details of each. So starting
with foreseeable events, what are they and why aren't they generally covered Wayne? Well foreseeable
events are generally things like maintenance and wear and tear. So these are things that
residential property owners or any property owner is expected to cover and should expect.
Replacing guttering, replacing roofing, ensuring that windows don't leak. They're the sorts of
maintenance things that should be considered in any case. So a policy won't cover the damage
resulting from those sorts of things generally. There are some circumstances where they would
being considered but as a rule no and the same with wear and tear fair wear and tear um i mean
to be fair to say we have had some landlords that have uh built a house 10 years ago and and expect
that you know the walls are going to be as they were when it was freshly painted uh it does cause
some headaches for property managers we understand this but fair wear and tear is expected and and is
reasonably expected and and if if an issue were to go to a residential tenancy tribunal they're
they're probably going to err more in favour of the tenant
than they are the landlord.
So these are the things that we normally expect to have to attend to
as a landlord.
Yeah, it's a part of owning an investment property.
Things are going to wear out over time,
and why would you expect your insurance policy to cover any of that?
But you're right, there are some landlords who treat their property
like the Taj Mahal and expect it's going to be in gleaming,
brand-new condition forever.
Certainly getting the expectations right is a big part
of where property managers earn their salt but let's now look at the sort of imminent events
in terms of what are they why aren't they generally covered and what's your top tip on these
yeah uh well look uh imminent events are very topical over the last few years bushfires and
floods so these are events that are on the radar on the immediate radar insurers are able to or
have the right to place an embargo on certain postcodes certain areas in the event of an
imminent event and all insurers and underwriters have access to certain data that might uh will
alert them to these things happening um and so an embargo is when you just cannot place cover or you
cannot increase your cover um and we we produce a list list sometimes when bushfires are out we
might have three a day three updates a day but um the top tip is and uh there goes a phone which i
knew would happen uh i'm just turning it off uh the top tip is this get your cover well in advance
of the need for it you can a commencement date uh can be made a two months out um any anything
above that you generally need to advise the insurer um each insurer has a different uh
protocol on that so you need to check with them and look we have had cases where people are buying
new investment properties on the date of contract they have an insurable interest and uh they go to
place the insurance uh embargoed suburb so that's very tenuous when you've got a brand new property
worth you know a build worth 500 000 and you're left without it so well in advance is the top tip
yeah that's very good advice now next one's pretty obvious but why aren't retrospective events
generally covered by landlord insurance and again what's your top tip on this one yeah well
retrospective in other words it's happened in the past um look we we have had a case where we had a
new property manager take over a portfolio discovered tenant damage and and thought okay
well i'll place insurance and claim on it and was quite ignorant to the fact that that couldn't be
done and the issue is that something's happened in the past outside the coverage period and we
can't identify who's responsible so there's no right of restitution i think just make sure that
But if you're buying a property that you have the usual building inspections, strata units, you need particular care there.
I mean, some of the four and five year old ones we're dealing with have got broken membranes, waterproof membranes and tiling.
Check that out thoroughly. Check with your strata insurer to see what sort of policy they have.
Are there any conditions on it? And also check the excess.
Too many, sometimes they're two and three thousand dollars.
too many strata owners uh sign a little bit of paper at the agm to proxy their their input over
to the strata manager and they naturally go and do whatever they think is easier uh there are good
ones out there of course i'm not knocking them all but uh just be wary of those things yeah very
good advice there one now let's turn to why building defects aren't generally covered and
what landlords can do to mitigate this yeah it's probably a little bit associated with the previous
uh with the previous uh discussion um building defects uh uh structural um they're either
structural or they're they're um an engineering problem uh that is no certainly no fault of the
property owners but for example on an australia unit you might have a defective installation of
a roof that's causing excessive overflow and flooding into units and of course there is a
a period where builders will cover that under the builder's warranty. But then when it slides out
of the warranty period, then it rests on the landlord or the strata. I'm focusing a lot on
strata because that's generally where a lot of the problems happen. So again, I would make it my
business to check out the full history of this property. Has it had any problems? Has anything
been flagged? What sort of claim history do we have? And that way you get a fair idea as to
whether you can anticipate problems yourself.
Yeah, good advice.
And checking out the credentials
and the history of the actual developer
and builder are pretty useful in conjunction
with having an independent building inspection completed
to make sure that you know what you're actually buying
before you sign on the dotted line.
So some great thoughts there.
Now, next subject,
why aren't pests and vermin generally covered?
Well, they are considered a maintenance issue.
If you have a possum running around on your ceiling,
You know, most of us are going to try and get rid of it,
not only for the building problem, but so we can sleep at night.
You know, infestations of mice and rats and things like that,
they should be considered maintenance issues.
So they really come under the foreseeable event category.
Yeah, well said.
Now we're turning to an interesting one,
which conjures up some pretty good images here.
Where does mould and mildew fit in and what can you offer on this one?
Oh, look, it's probably the number one topic we have, especially at particular times of the year.
Mould and mildew is considered definitely a maintenance issue.
And I would be making it very clear as a property manager, and I know most do, to the tenant, that they must keep this under control.
Sometimes there are problems within a building when a tenant takes over.
we're hoping that property managers will encourage landlords to assert special types of paints and
cleaning you can do that will pretty well eliminate but unfortunately uh mold and mildew
in very tiny uh concentrations can spread very easily so if you're not on top of it um and there
is a website which eludes me now uh but if you google it there's a top there's a government
website that uh uh it gives you some guidelines on how best to manage mold so as a rule it's not
covered it's a maintenance issue uh there would be very few circumstances in which we would cover
it for example let's say a building was flooded out tenant had to move and within a period of
two weeks there was a massive infestation of black mold for example that likely would be covered but
as a rule no yeah and that applies for all insurers you'll see it's all in every insurance
policy yeah absolutely well i mean it comes down to adequate ventilation generally so if uh you
know the it's the wet areas that generally tend to attract this so you know if your bathrooms
on suites are well ventilated then that's going to control most of it and making sure the tenant
turns on the exhaust fan and having a shower will go a long way to alleviating some of that but um
landlord does have a responsibility in ensuring ventilation for example can you open your window
slightly unlock it and i have seen bedroom windows where the inside of the window through the window
is infected with mold and often the tenant doesn't even know that's the case but if you can't open
your window slightly and keep it secure then we have a problem potentially yeah that's a very good
point mate now the the last one's also pretty obvious but uh why aren't tenants contents covered
uh quite simply there's no obligation under a tenancy act for the landlord to have
responsibility in the event of a defined event i know property managers do their very best to
explain this to tenants at the time that they take the tenancy out you should get content to cover
landlord's not responsible but we know what happens invariably and the other thing too is
that if the building is flooded for example and becomes untenable and the tenant has to move out
but the landlord is not responsible for relocation costs
and alternative accommodation.
And the policy will cover rent loss while that repair period is going on
and there's no rent coming in,
but certainly not that relocation and alternatives.
So that's another thing that we get from time to time.
So again, for landlords,
just please make sure your property manager is explaining that
at the time of tenants.
In fact, a lot have in their management agreement
an area where the tenant needs to sign.
we understand yes yeah good point the ones are on top of her all over that that really good
thoughts there now i guess turning to uh insurers themselves uh how does ebm rent cover differ from
the standard off-the-shelf landlord insurance policies and what extra protections does ebm
provide well um ebm rent cover has been developed over 30 years uh let's see we actually pioneered
the product over 30 years ago and and the growth and development of that product uh has been done
in consultation with the industry and landlords all the way through i mentioned earlier about the
need for insurers to balance you know risk and and premium to make sure that we can be sustainable
well that's what uh ebm rent cover has done over the 30 years so um banks and general insurers
will, as I said, they'll call it a landlord insurance policy. But in general, there's some
differences such as excesses on rent loss. Generally, you'll find a bank in general have
an excess and or waiting period on rent loss. The specialist policy like rent cover doesn't.
Then we look at damage. You'll find that most banks in general will cover malicious damage
to a certain extent, again, with extended excesses, but not accidental damage or a thing
we call deliberate damage so accidental and malicious are pretty easy to understand but
deliberate is where the tenant does something they meant to do it but they didn't think they
were harming the property like putting an old air conditioner in from gum tree and bodgy wiring it
and then leaving it think it's an asset you know it's it's got to be restituted so that's deliberate
damage so rent cover will cover the three and malicious deliberate and accidental damage then
And of course, we've got pet damage, again, some policies exclude that.
Rent cover has up to $70,000.
Pet doesn't need to be named on the lease or authorised, so long as it's owned by the
tenant.
And of course, in a previous episode, we discussed drug labs and contamination, again, rent covers
up to $70,000 on that front.
And we have a whole panel of experts right across Australia who are able to assist us
in the event that that happens.
And in general too, and very importantly during the claims period, we have people that deal
only in landlord insurance claims.
So in fact, we guarantee turnaround of five business days, unless it's a major fire over
$70,000 fire or flood, from the day we have everything we need to process it.
In fact, our crew in 2022 won the industry's award for claim service, not only in landlord
insurance.
So yeah, they're a great mob, very experienced.
them have been there with us for over 15 years and you make a very good point there Wayne my good
wife Sonia who ran a very successful property management business for many years got to see the
the good the bad and the ugly of the whole claims procedure when it came to landlord insurance
claims and sadly a lot of the general insurers can take months if not sometimes years to actually
get around to uh processing and then paying the claim which means that the landlord's left holding
the can in the in the process so it's not only a matter of what's in and excluded from the policy
it's also a matter of how quick that turnaround is in terms of the impact on the uh hip pocket so
i'm glad you raised that one and again one i want to thank you for opening our eyes to this
very important subject and it clearly reinforces that it's important that investors and their
property managers engage a specialist landlord insurer that gives you the best possible coverage
because as i keep saying it's not a matter of if an issue is going to occur but merely when so in
terms of minimizing risk cost and the stress that goes with it always plan for the worst and then
expect the best and you can do this with specialist landlord insurance cover so thanks again for
sharing your very generous time here on realty talk today my pleasure thank you bushy goodbye
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Now, in recent times, overseas migration is frequently being called out in the media as one of the primary factors influencing the housing market.
In the face of high interest rates, low consumer sentiment and stretched housing affordability, property values and rents continue to rise and vacancy rates are plummeting as net overseas migration hits record highs.
National home values have increased 7.2% in the year to date and rent values rose 6% over the same period.
This has resulted in heated discussions around migration,
which is drawing a lot of attention as housing affordability worsens.
But there are many other factors driving property values in the rental market,
and long-term, strategic migration policy shouldn't be influenced
by short-term volatility in migration and property markets.
So to put some much-needed balance back into this debate,
the head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Rowan,
has just released a great report that unpacks five key insights into migration in the housing market
and she joins us now to reveal them. So welcome back to the show Eliza.
Thanks for having me Bushy, great to be here.
Eliza, I really have enjoyed the report and it really sets the scene and really gets to the
nub of the issue on this exercise. So just to get things out of the way, can you sort of start with
a bit of a dot point list of the other five insights you've uncovered that we all need to
know about migration in the housing market before we then dive into the details? Absolutely. So there
were five key kind of takeaways. The first is that the housing tenure of overseas migrants
skews towards the rental market in the short term. The second is that we are seeing some pretty
crazy levels of overseas migration at the moment. But part of the reason for that is because we
temporarily banded in the first place the third takeaway is that the migration ban created not
only that volatility in patterns of migration but as a result of that volatility in rental markets
the fourth is that overseas migration isn't the only thing influencing house and rent values
and there are other things that you can do to try and reduce pressure on housing costs
the final takeaway is that reducing the migration intake could be part of a long-term
strategy for Australia but it does have some trade-offs and it's a really difficult thing to do
so I hope that some of those takeaways can be carried forward into what will undoubtedly be
some pretty heated discussions around migration at the end of this year and next. Yeah totally
agree and very timely to put that paper out there. I want to drill into the details now and get your
insights on all this so I want to start with your thoughts on the immediacy or otherwise of the
correlation between migrant arrivals and housing. Yeah so there really is no firm relationship
between overseas migration and sales volumes. If you think about it we've got a record level
of net overseas migration measured in the year to March from the ABS it's sitting at 454,000 people
net but sales volumes are kind of just sidelining annual sales volumes have been sitting at about
475,000 and that's actually a little bit below the historic decade average so it's obviously
not had much of an influence in pushing up sales volumes. But because we understand, again, from
EES insights into migrant settlement outcomes, that most people coming from overseas are going
to be renters when they first get here. It pushes up the rental market when net overseas migration
increases. And that's where we've seen really acute pressures in the housing market. So areas
like Melbourne's southeast suburbs, Parramatta,
the inner southwest of Sydney, Melbourne's western
and inner suburbs, these are basically a collection
of markets that have the highest exposure
to overseas migration historically.
And since we opened the borders back up post-COVID
in July last year, those markets have seen
an average increase in rates of 18%.
Yeah, extremely well said.
Just touching on COVID and the sort of artificial unexpected influence that's had, what impact and flow on effects have the COVID border closures and the travel bans had on all of this to dig into a bit more detail on?
So I guess it helps to remember that net overseas migration is made up of two key components, arrivals to Australia and departures from Australia.
so if you're just looking at the arrivals uh we put a ban on migration from early 2020 to mid
2022 and that meant that a lot of people who wanted to travel to australia through that period
because they found a great course here at a university or they have family here that they
wanted to be with those people had to postpone their travel decisions so once we open up the
borders we see this very rapid return in migration and that's coming from people who decide at the
time that they want to come to Australia but also all of those people who had postponed their
decisions. So if you like it's kind of a concentration of arrival activity. The second
component which it maybe isn't talked about as much but has been highlighted by the ABS and
immigration data is the departure side of things. A lot of our migration is temporary migrant so
coming here to maybe do a course and then leave or stay here and work for a couple of years and
then leave. Because we didn't have that many arrivals through COVID, now fast forward two years
we don't have as many people departing the country and that is coincided with all of that pent-up
arrival activity. So the result is that you get this record high level of people arriving to the
country but you've also got a substantial drop-off in people leaving because arrivals are a high
now that departure situation will normalize in time and therefore net overseas migration will
normalize over the next few years as well but what we're seeing at the moment is a pretty extreme
result of extended closure of our borders to overseas arrivals very good point and and you
know just reinforcing that insight that it's not just about the people coming in it's about the
people going out and the and the short-term bottleneck that's occurred as a consequence of
that so excellent point what other factors are pushing up housing demand and rising cost to put
this in context then Eliza there are so many factors that have led to an increase in housing
values over time and some of them are shorter term effects of the pandemic so we've talked a lot about
shifts in household size. Lucy Ellis, who was that former deputy governor of economics at the RBA,
gave this great address last year on housing in an endemic phase. And she pointed out that the
reduction in average household size is people spread out across the market, seeking more space,
seeking less exposure to COVID. That reduction led to dwelling demands domestically of 120,000
additional dwellings as estimated by the RBA and there are longer term factors as well the fact
that we've seen the depletion of public sector housing provision over time you know public
housing approvals used to make up about eight or nine percent of total approvals in the 80s and 90s
it's less than two percent today so that puts more pressure on your private housing market if you're
making less of an effort to put people in social and affordable housing there are other factors
that have driven lower household sizes over time the aging population people not wanting to downsize
and these factors mean that over time even if your population doesn't change at all
you need more dwellings to house the population your demand goes up and nothing illustrates that
better, I think, than the actual period where borders were completely closed. And yet rents
increased 16.5% nationally. And of course, values increased very strongly at a time when our borders
were totally shut. So don't blame migrants for the rising housing costs that we're seeing. There
are so many other factors at play. Yeah, well said. And I think in some of your other recent
correspondence so you've indicated that just the the number of properties listed for sale is about
40 percent down on the long long-term average so that alone is going to put uh upward pressure on
on on cost as a consequence of that so you're right yeah in some cities but you're right
nationally it's about 18 percent down from historic averages and smaller cities like
Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, which, again,
aren't the highest overseas migration cities,
but those are the cities where we're seeing stock levels down
by about 40%.
Yeah, extremely well said.
So what trade-offs may occur then if, God forbid,
migration is reduced prematurely?
Yeah, so, I mean, if you put a temporary cap on migration,
I think that could be really problematic because we kind of already did that through COVID.
And we know that it's created a lot of volatility in housing markets, in the actual numbers of
migration.
If you announce to the world that you're putting a temporary cap on migration, then they sit
there and bide time until the borders open back up.
So that's probably not the way to go.
um funnily enough the government uh earlier this year had been conducting a very comprehensive
review into Australia's migration strategy we haven't had much of a strategy around migration
for decades and I guess one of the things that they look at is that at the moment we only really
put a kind of cap in migration to permanent arrivals. We don't have a cap on temporary
arrival students, people who are coming over for temporary work or holiday. So putting a more
holistic target or cap on net overseas migration as a whole and doing it over a longer term
could be beneficial for better planning our infrastructure, better planning our housing.
I think there's an argument to that.
But, of course, if you reduce the intake of people,
you potentially reduce economic demand because people come here,
they're workers, so they're adding to the labor supply.
They're demanding goods and services, so they're adding to economic demand,
and that has helped to grow Australia's economy over time.
The other thing about the migrant population is that, on average,
compared to the broader Australian population,
they're younger and they're more skilled.
So that tends to increase Australia's productive capacity.
We're even seeing some states like Western Australia, for example,
is specifically targeting war migration to help with the housing crisis.
They've announced this grant of about $10,000 to help with the processing
and location of workers in construction, which could help to deliver the pipeline
that they've got backed up in the dwelling space there as well.
so there are some trade-offs if you try to cap minimize migration but i think nationally and
where the government's going is that we probably are looking to move towards a long-term target
that would help us to better manage our infrastructure and housing delivery
yeah extremely well said so we'll be to wrap all this up but what sort of summary conclusions can
we draw from all of this Eliza? Temporary bans on migration create extreme volatility in population
and rents, confuses investors and creates additional pressure on rental markets down the line
so that's not the way to go but I think it's okay to move towards this conversation about a longer
term net overseas migration target whether it's a number whether it's a growth rate but just keep
in mind that we're not here just because of migrants um and there are many other factors
students they don't want to do anything housing market yeah extremely well said i really want to
thank you for taking the time to share your very well researched and qualified insights eliza which
again highlights that proper conditions are influenced by a whole host of interrelated
dynamics and not just one indicator of the hour and i guess underlying all this the uh fact that
A lot of our current housing concerns are more about supply than our demand.
So for anyone who's interested in learning more, I encourage them to read your full article by going on to corelogic.com.au forward slash news research and look for the article, five things to know about migration and the housing market, or click on the link in our show notes.
And then anyone listening in, I want you to jump on the Property Hub Collective Facebook community to share your thoughts on migration and property.
and thanks again for taking the time
to share all this with us today, Eliza.
No worries.
Thanks so much for having me.
Hi, just before we go back to the show,
I want to spend a few seconds
and tell you about a book that was sent to me
that's now become my go-to reference
when I'm looking for inspiration
about property investment.
You know, sometimes it's not about
knowing all the answers.
It's certainly more important
to know what questions to ask.
This book by Rasty is called the Property Wealth Blueprint.
And it's one that you don't read just once
and then put it away.
It stays out as a reference.
It's a book that you go back to time and time again,
as I do, because it's packed with personal experience
and with great examples
of how to get property investment right.
It's very frank, it's to the point.
And as you can see here,
I've needed to bookmark several points and I can tell you that it's a constant companion on my desk
here. The remarkable thing is that it's absolutely free on Rasty's website, getrare.com.au.
Get Rare, it's a gateway to a richer life. The website there for you again,
getrare.com.au. So get this book, get it for yourself.
Subscribe now to Realty Talk.
It's out every week.
And that brings us to the end of this week's show.
A big thanks to Eliza and Wayne for a great show.
Don't miss Realty Talk or Get Invested each week.
And you'll do that by subscribing to The Property Hub
wherever you're listening to or watching this show.
You can also join the conversation on Facebook
at The Property Hub Collective.
And here's another reminder for you to join us
for our special Q&A this Monday night
on the Property Hub Collective Facebook page
from seven o'clock daylight saving time
when Bushy, Eddie, Rusty and I will jump online
to answer any questions that you might have.
Go to that Facebook page now and reserve your spot.
Thanks to our supporters and our content partners,
realty.com.au, BMT, Tax Depreciation,
Know How Property Finance, Get Rare Property
and Apiro Marketing.
I'm Kevin Turner and on behalf of Bushy and the Property Hub team
we look forward to seeing you again next week
