Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - A Justin Fields Vikings rumor? HUH???

Episode Date: March 4, 2024

Matthew Coller talks about ESPN's Jeremy Fowler name dropping the Vikings as a potential landing spot for Justin Fields. Does that make any sense? Plus fan questions about the timeline on Kirk Cousins and different draft options with trades up or down Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here. And just when you thought that Indianapolis and the NFL Combine gave us enough rumors to work with until free agency starts in a couple of weeks, well, Jeremy Fowler dropped a semi-bombshell of a rumor on us. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, their NFL insider, reports that the teams that are on the radar for quarterback Justin Fields, very, very likely to be traded as Chicago has the number one pick expected to draft Caleb Williams are as follows. Atlanta, okay, makes sense. Pittsburgh, yep, all right.

Vegas, no surprise. And Minnesota. Minnesota? Wait, the Vikings? On the radar for Justin Fields? This is very interesting. Now, Jeremy Fowler has his connections in Minnesota and is often at the center of reporting regarding the Vikings.

So there is some connection there, but I never would have expected Justin Fields' name to come up in regards to the Minnesota Vikings for obvious reasons, starting with they're in the division. Usually when teams trade away their quarterbacks that have gone bust and they don't want them anymore, they don't usually trade them in their own division. If we go back just in recent history, we see someone like Sam Darnold, who was traded from the New York Jets to the Carolina Panthers, or even in the case of Trey Lance, who only went for a fourth round pick. He went from San Francisco in the West to the Dallas Cowboys in the East. Normally, you would not even take into consideration giving your opponent somebody who could have the

potential to turn out to be good. That's one reason that this wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. But I guess we have seen Kweisi Adafo-Mensa trade within the division multiple times before it's just been in the form of the Detroit Lions where in the 2022 draft maybe some people remember the 2022 draft and occasionally bring it up the Vikings traded down with the Detroit Lions and then even at the deadline in 2023 the Vikings trade for TJ Hawkinson so I, I mean, I guess maybe Kweisi Adafo-Mensa believes in making that sort of move in the division more than other general managers. And that might be where the interest comes from. But then you also have the sheer fact of it's Justin Fields. And when we think about Kevin O'Connell's offense and the type of quarterback that has played for Kevin O'Connell and had success in his recent history, we've got Matthew

Stafford, a big armed pocket quarterback who is capable of making some plays. And then Kirk Cousins, who is a super accurate, highly intelligent veteran quarterback who is capable of throwing with anticipation and understanding defenses and really getting into the deep depths of Kevin O'Connell's offense. Neither one of those quarterbacks sound a heck of a lot like Justin Fields. Fields has been sacked on 12% of his dropbacks. He has never cleared 2,600 yards. He's only won 10 of his 38 career starts. And I understand there is context that goes along with it. And the Justin Fields people really, really love Justin Fields. But if we're talking about a fit for Kevin O'Connell, a straight dropback quarterback who can maybe make some plays seems more like O'Connell's cup of tea.

That's the guy that they describe as being Drake Bay is a big armed quarterback playmaker on the side, but is a drop back and throw first type of QB. And Justin Fields has been over the last two years, more of a run first quarterback than he has been truly executing an offense. Now, it's possible that the Vikings think that this could be different if they were in charge and not Luke Getze. And even at one point, Justin Fields mentioned coaching as a potential reason for his struggles at times, although he tried to walk that back.

But there were a lot of very heavy critics of Luke Getze and his offensive style in Chicago. Still, for Justin Fields, a quarterback who has this big tendency to take sacks, hold on to the football too long, and then have to divert to running, it really seems unlikely that Kevin O'Connell would find this to be the great fit that he's been looking for. Now, it would offer something totally different from what he had with Kirk Cousins, a guy who can run for a first down, a guy who can make a special play with his legs, and maybe even go off schedule and do something that you don't expect.

And yeah, you could try to make the argument that if put in the right system with Justin Jefferson, with Jordan Addison, with TJ Hawkinson, that maybe Justin Fields is a different version of himself. In fact, any team that acquires Justin Fields is really betting on a hypothetical version of Justin Fields because nothing we've seen actually on the field would tell you, yes, this quarterback can win games. He can be special. He can be a franchise future quarterback for somebody, but it takes a lot of mental gymnastics because you don't have any actual proof that this can happen. And for that reason, I would not be in favor of the Vikings looking at Justin Fields as a possible option, even if they love this upside, even if they liked his character,

even if they thought this is great, we can get a guy who's going to go toe to toe as a playmaker and as a runner with some of the best playmaking quarterbacks in the NFL. There are too many red flags in his history, despite whatever you want to say about the Chicago Bears and how they've operated, for me to think that this would be a good idea. It kind of reminds me of the Trey Lance situation last year where the Vikings were connected to Trey Lance. They had a chance to go get him

and then ultimately opted not to go get Trey Lance. They had a chance to go get him and then ultimately opted not to go get Trey Lance. But the sample size of a coach like Kyle Shanahan saying, all right, I'm going to just move on from this guy. I've got somebody else who's my quarterback. The history's not good when a team drafts a first round quarterback and then they go somewhere else and have that second chance. There are very few times historically where this has actually worked out. And I mean, maybe you could say that Ryan Tannehill did in Tennessee. And if you're going to build that type of offense and you were really desperate for a quarterback, I guess you could make that case. I mean, if you're Pittsburgh, for

example, and you don't have a particularly high draft pick and you're looking to win now with your roster, Justin Fields makes sense. I mean, he's going to be better than Kenny Pickett. He's going to be better than Mason Rudolph. So, okay, give him a shot. And the same even goes for Las Vegas, where they were able to win eight games last year with Aiden O'Connell and a banged up Jimmy Garoppolo and a coach in Josh McDaniels, who is the least popular coach in the entire NFL, according to the NFL PA. They're in a position where they think that their roster is pretty close and they can win if they just get better quarterback play.

The Vikings should be in a spot where they're looking for someone who has the possibility of being their franchise quarterback for a long time. And there's another issue with this too, that when you trade for a quarterback who has already used several of his rookie contract years as Justin Fields has, then even if he plays well, you might have to pay him. So if he turns into Daniel Jones circa 2022, let's say he comes to the Vikings and Fields puts up 3,500 passing yards, runs for another 700 and wins eight games. Well, then you have a decision. Are you going to pay him? And if you do pay him, then we're back to kind of square one. There's only really one outcome if he somehow became phenomenal under Kevin O'Connell. But that would require quite a miracle for someone to go from this start to their career to being phenomenal. Even Ryan Tannehill went from being pretty bleh to okay, not bad, but still

was not the centerpiece of Tennessee's offense. And he was a placeholder for them for a few years so they could be competitive with a run first offense. That's not a criticism. It's just the fact that Tannehill became a good quarterback, but not a great franchise quarterback for Tennessee. And that's the best case scenario that you'll ever hear of kind of in the modern NFL of a team giving up on a quarterback and then him going somewhere else. So I can't really buy into even considering the Vikings going after Justin Fields. It's even weirder. I mean, I guess you want to cast a wide net if they're having this discussion, but it's even weirder with the fact that every time they've played Justin Fields, he's been pretty bad. He's had a lot of problems against the Minnesota

Vikings in his short history of playing against this team. The best game he had was, I guess, beating them by a couple points and barely scoring late in the season. So there just hasn't been much history of him playing well against the Vikings. And to that end, I would be very, very surprised if that was in consideration. I suppose if they are looking to just get anything they can and then draft a quarterback and take as many shots as they possibly can then you could try to make some sense of this in a theoretical world draft a guy trade for a guy sign a guy from the xfl they just get as many quarterbacks as you can and maybe somebody will work out sort of of like San Francisco drafting Brock Purdy. They didn't need Brock Purdy, or they didn't think so at the time, but they ultimately

ended up having Brock Purdy work out. Look at last offseason for them. Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, they all compete for a job. So maybe the Vikings would be thinking about that if the price tag is not very high and looking at those other teams though, that could be interested. I think they need them more and that the price tag will end up going up probably to a second round draft pick for Justin Fields. So an interesting report, something that I did not have any expectation to talk about of the Vikings adjusted fields certainly not my favorite idea based on his history and the fact that even if he plays well

you have to sign him to a contract extension but if the Vikings did that if Kirk Cousins ultimately leaves it would certainly change the look of their offense by a lot. And that would be fascinating to watch how that situation played out. But seems like the odds are still not very high that it could happen. But I do appreciate a report giving us a pretty hot rumor to work with coming out of Indianapolis. That's not the only thing we have to discuss, though. Lots of questions rolling in at purpleinsider.com. Go there where it says contact us you can send an email to me and i will answer it on the show or hit me up with a direct message at matthew collar on twitter that's how we do the fans only episodes so i've got a ton of emails to answer as well

want to run through those and hit me up if you got thoughts on justin fields if you want to make the opposite argument if you want to jump in the comments and tell me why you think Justin Fields is actually a good idea, go ahead and do so. All right, let's start the questions with Todd, who says, You said on the podcast that Drake May reminds you of Matthew Stafford. What are your other comps for the prospect quarterbacks? All right, so I think for Bo Nix, this is one that I heard from Daniel Jeremiah. I had had it a little bit in my head and I like it, which is Jalen Hurts. Now Jalen Hurts is more of a special runner than Bo Nix, but Bo Nix can run the ball and do it

effectively. And he's got a little bit of playmaker, but even Jalen Hurts is not the type of off-schedule playmaker that we see from Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. He's much more of a designed run guy. So if it was a little less of the designed run action, I could see Bo Nix, who does not have the strongest arm, similar to Jalen Hurts, is not flawlessly accurate, just like Hurts, but played a ton of football in college, looks like a guy who improves year to year, and could operate effectively in the right situation with a good offensive line, good wide receivers. I like that comparison for him. As you mentioned, Drake May, Matthew Stafford, with a little bit of calamity mixed in. The hardest one that I've had to try to compare, and if we're doing it mostly to

quarterbacks that we're looking at for present quarterbacks, who does he remind you the most presently, is probably Caleb Williams is the hardest because you want to look at Mahomes and say, yeah, man, he's just like Patrick Mahomes, but who is he actually like that one? I have a very tough time figuring out. I think it's actually more Josh Allen than it is Patrick Mahomes because Josh Allen also has this disaster sort of element to his game where any given week he could be great or he could really struggle. And I think that we saw that a little bit from Caleb Williams, where it could be messy. It could be wild a little bit where my homes, the crazy thing about him is that he plays scatterbrained and yet he finds a way to

never have these turnover worthy type of plays. And that's what's crazy about him. He doesn't throw very many interceptions. He doesn't throw very many interceptions. He doesn't take very many sacks and he doesn't have that total meltdown part of him, which is what makes him so special that even his bad games are not that bad. That's the high end, of course, of Caleb Williams. These were all, you know, based on kind of the high end or who he reminds you of in the best case scenario, not necessarily the worst case scenario where it actually might be Justin Fields for Caleb Williams because he does hang onto the ball. He does opt to be a playmaker too quickly. And the leadership element of Josh Allen is so special. Is Caleb Williams going to have that

in the NFL? I am not totally convinced by that. For Michael Penix, I've got Jared Goff. I don't think that Penix throws very well on the move. I think he's got an absolute cannon that he's not always flawless in his execution of some of the shorter routes. Sometimes it's a little bit high. It's a little bit off, especially if his feet get a little messy. But his deep ball is magnificent. When he has to throw into tight windows, that velocity on the football and how easy and quick the ball comes out, it's really unique

and it's really special. So as a pure pocket quarterback, the best I think Penix could be is someone like Jared Goff. Now the hardest one of the whole group is JJ McCarthy, because there is a element of playmaking with him. There is a strong arm with him. Those tools exist there, but also there is this, what can he really become? Because I don't have a large, large sample size of actually watching him play. And I guess, oh gosh, I mean, I was thinking a little bit about somebody like Dak Prescott who understands his offense really, really well. And I think that's the part that you like about McCarthy is that mental element. He's played in the pro game and he's kind of been trained to be a pro type of quarterback. And I don't know that Prescott has this monster

laser beam arm as much as he's got a little more touch than McCarthy has right now, but also McCarthy will have time to develop that. That's kind of what I could come up with right now for a high end for him, that somebody who can make a play deck Prescott, I think on the move when he's rolling out is really, really excellent at just flicking the ball and finding players on the move. I think there was some data out there not too long ago on Prescott being one of the best when he escapes and rolls out. I see a lot of that with JJ McCarthy as well. I'd be very interested in people's comps for that. If you've got your own list, send it to me, leave it in the comments. I'm really interested.

Those are the first thoughts for me of who the best version of these quarterbacks could be, but we'll work on it. We'll workshop it. And as we go forward, I'll continue to ask the analysts that we bring on to get their opinions. Next question comes from Joe. Would love to get your take on Drake May his interviews didn't go very well in my opinion and I could see him dropping yeah so I think Drake May was a little

bit awkward at the podium and a little bit awkward in some of the interviews and he dropped the same line about game planning for me versus game planning against me in a couple of different interviews that he had clearly stood in front of the mirror and worked that one out before he decided to go to the combine and test it out on everybody. That may just be his personality. I did have one person tell me, and this is only one person, so they've heard things and so forth that the interviews were not as favorable to Drake May. Now that goes against something that Ian Rappaport reported that Drake may crush the interviews. So what I've heard, what he's heard, there's a thousand people in Indy and you could sort of take that for what it's worth. But I think you did see it a little bit that someone like Michael Penix is extremely confident, mature on the older side.

And we saw this from Bo Nix. And especially I thought J.J. McCarthy was really, really polished as an interview where May was a bit more uncomfortable, or at least he seemed that way. And as a communicator, it does matter when you're the quarterback, but how you're interviewed in front of cameras, I'm not going to put too much emphasis in trying to judge that because it's a nerve wracking and exhausting experience in Indianapolis. You do a bunch of different interviews. You're in front of cameras all the time. How can I really say, oh, well, just from the way that he looked in this interview is

a little uncomfortable. That means he's not going to be X, Y, or Z. That would be going too far. Now, last year when I watched CJ Stroud, I was blown away by Stroud and how comfortable he is and how mature he is. So maybe there's a little something to that. I mean, you do have to connect with people. You do have to really communicate a ton as a quarterback,

but there's also tiptoeing. Nobody wants to be the guy who says something they didn't mean in front of the camera and then has it go viral or has teams ask about it. Hey, what was that thing you said at that interview with the podium, with the media? Do you remember Ryan Mallett? This happened with Ryan Mallett where he was a little defensive

about some questions at the podium, at the combine. It kind of became a thing. These guys often train to answer these questions, which kind of shows a little bit how silly the whole process can be. But they try to work through this and come up with a strategy for how they're going to talk to people at the Combine. So is that really his personality?

I have a tough time putting too much stock in that, much more into, say, what Kevin O'Connell would think about talking to him would matter the most. I just don't think he's ever really going to tell us what his notebook said on Drake May. So judging on just the information I have, which is watching Drake May, and that's really it because he didn't do anything at the combine. I like his tools a ton. He has a monster arm.

He can really throw beautifully down the field with touch. He's a little bit of a disaster sometimes that they would have to work some of that out. And that's all I can tell you. It looks like a franchise quarterback as far as his size, his speed, his playmaking ability off schedule, and his arm throwing intermediate and deep routes. And that's what I got. And then it comes down to how the Vikings feel about him. I'd love to put together a hotter take based on some of those uncomfortable interviews. I did notice the same thing as you're talking about, but that's kind of the, as far as I want to go with it right now.

Uh, Derek says chop Robinson plus trade back for Pennix at 11 or Fisk,isk, or, oh, I see, or quarterback at 11 and Fisk, Braden Fisk, the, or is it Brandon Fisk, the defensive tackle, or say Effett and draft Brian Thomas Jr. at 11. So these are your different options, apparently, for the draft. Chop Robinson, I don't know that he's going to go that high because there's going to be a lot of offensive players taken. Dallas Turner is much more likely, along with Jared Verse and Latu from UCLA. Those guys are likely to be taken higher than Robinson, even though he had a great combine. So he might actually be the guy you trade back in for in the first round if he's still there. And you say, all right, well, let's go from 42 to 32 to try to get Chop Robinson or wait and see if he's still around.

I'm not sure that's likely after he had a tremendous, tremendous combine and also his under the radar stats, his pressures, his PFF grades are actually really good. So when you look at his sack numbers,'re not as high but his under the radar stats are actually terrific um you're talking about maybe they'll trying to pair him and michael pennix together my thing is if you like michael pennix enough to draft him and make him your guy then you should probably just draft him and not mess around too much right like we all want to hack the draft hey Hey, trade down, try to take this guy through trade back up, move around, shuffle around the draft board. But on draft night, it's trickier than it seems. You're making a lot of phone calls,

a lot of moving parts. 32 teams are trying to move all at once. It's not as simple as just, oh, boop, boop, we're trade back and we got our guy. So I think if you love Michael Penix, just take him at number 11. Don't worry about, oh, we could have got one more pick. We could have got an additional third here, whatever. Just take your guy and make him your guy. And with Chop Robinson, if you like him enough, I think that philosophically, Kweisi D'Affil-Mensah probably believes more in trading back than forward. But if you have a steep fall-off with that position after the first round, then that is somebody you might want to look at.

As far as Fisk goes in the second, we'll see. He put up incredible numbers. He's the defensive tackle for Florida State, put up incredible numbers at the Combine, may have worked his way into a, you know, Kalijah Cansey type of thing where he is undersized, but you could fall in love with his production. He also had a great senior bowl, so that might help him as well.

And then we're saying about, you know, Brian Thomas at 11. He is a great wide receiver prospect, but there are many of them. I think somewhere in the middle rounds, if you're drafting a receiver, you could still do extremely, extremely well with a receiver in the middle rounds. You can often talk me into wide receivers because I just think that they're the keys to the castle in football and probably always have been in a lot of ways that there's a lot of great quarterbacks who, of course, are the main thing. And it's always going to be your quarterback. But you usually don't have to look too far to find a Hall of Fame wide receiver with them that plays a big role and is terrific as well. So I'm always down for a three deep situation, but I wouldn't do it at number 11. I'd probably look more to grab one

of these guys that falls down the board because there's going to be a crazy run on wide receivers to start the draft, but there may be a bit of a drop off in the middle where some of the defensive positions start picking up and it leaves you a guy in the third or fourth round. Well, they don't have a third round pick, but trade up potential or fourth round where then you jump up and you grab that guy. So the Vikings have tons and tons of different options here of how to handle this situation with quarterback. And you definitely named a few of them take a guy at 11 who's an edge rusher trade back into the first take a quarterback try to trade back into the first for a rusher

a lot of options that we're going to talk about leading up to the draft first step of course is cousins leaving and then we'll know much more if he comes back then we're all just going to have to reevaluate all of our options actually if he comes back, then I kind of like that receiver idea. Go all in because you're not fixing the defense with one draft pick. I'm only half kidding about that. Maybe only a quarter kidding. Mateo says, I think if Cousins signs with Atlanta or goes somewhere else, the Vikings move up to the top of the draft around the start of free agency like Carolina did last year. That is very possible that you try to lock that in

before draft night, because I mentioned the chaos and you have to pay a premium for that though. Keep in mind, this is how you end up giving up three first round picks for Trey Lance, like San Francisco did before the draft. There is an extra price that goes along with being the team that moves up early as opposed to them waiting to the last minute. It's sort of like a buy it now on eBay. Like, yeah, this is the price if you want to go nuts and you want to be the only one who gets it. But if you want to actually have a bidding war and try to get a deal, then you're going to have to wait until draft night to make those trades. But if Cousins signs on March 13th with the Atlanta Falcons, then you already know you're drafting a quarterback,

unless you have some other option that we can't see coming right now. So you could start making those phone calls that day about potentially trying to trade up and do it beforehand. And even if you do have to trade a little bit more than some other teams that are trying to make that deal, it would be worth it to get your guy. And what they have to evaluate is what is the gap between, say, Drake May at number three and trading with the Patriots versus Michael Penix at number 11 and trading with the patriots versus michael penix at number

11 jj mccarthy can you actually get him which they're gonna have to really know coming out of the combine can you actually get mccarthy if you want him or did his combine do so much for him his meetings his performance on the field did that do so much for him that now a guy that you felt like maybe you could have got at number 11, now all of a sudden you can't. They have to assess that as well. How far do they have to trade up? Do they have to get to New England or could they go to number four or five instead? Are the Giants doing it? Could you make an additional trade with Atlanta after they take your quarterback? And then you move up from 11 to 8 to get someone like McCarthy.

I mean, all these things are potential options for the Vikings. It's going to depend on kind of some of their intel. What did they learn in Indianapolis about where that board is going to fall and which teams are actually going to pick quarterbacks and what the league really thinks of JJ McCarthy, because there have been other times and where we've come out of the combine and we've been sure about something and the buzz about something has been very high and then it just didn't turn out that way. So they're going to have to know that better than say, we know that right now, but whether they want to trade up may just be the gap between in their minds who they'd want to trade up for whether it's daniels or may versus

what they want uh from the number 11 pick like what uh the cost is going to be versus what they could get could it you know nicks mcc, how they have those guys evaluated ton of moving parts to that question that they have to ask. But, you know, look, if, if they do it, if they went crazy and moved up, you know, I, I think that there's going to be, you know, other questions about this that people have sent me, but I'll be nervous about it because that is the all in type of move. But also, I don't know how we could really be down on it if that's what they were doing, because this would be the big swing that they haven't been taking for so many years and trying to really play conservatively with the quarterback position. Let's see. Moesha. I'm not 100% sure if that's how you pronounce your name, and I'm really sorry if I have that wrong. You'll have to send me another message to let me know

if I got that right. If the Vikings re-sign Kirk, does it impact their chances of trading up with a team? Would teams want to trade with them knowing they have Kirk won't lead to a super high pick? So you mean if Kirk Cousins comes back, would they still be able to trade up or would teams be like, no, because your first round draft picks are going to be in the middle or later if you bring back Kirk? I think that just in general, if they bring back Kirk trading up goes off the table, they need to draft at number 11, somebody right away who is going to be good and effective for them. So getting somebody like Byron Murphy, the defensive tackle from Texas, getting somebody like Jared verse Dallas Turner, like those players could come in and potentially with their athletic gifts and with Brian Flores be impact players right away. And that's exactly

what you need. If you're trading up to look for a future quarterback, then I'm just going to be totally lost. Like, what are we doing here? Using Kirk cousins as a bridge, using Kirk cousins as somebody to just be around another quarterback. I mean, this ultimately worked for the green Bay What are we doing here? Using Kirk Cousins as a bridge, using Kirk Cousins as somebody to just be around another quarterback. I mean, this ultimately worked for the Green Bay Packers, but was pretty uncomfortable for a couple of years. And you don't have Aaron Rodgers' talent there to just be uncomfortable.

And also, how are you filling these other defensive spots? The reason to draft a rookie quarterback is so you give yourself time to rebuild the roster around that guy. In this case, you need to draft for immediate need and you need to hit on that right away or it's kind of a disaster. So I think that trading up if they bring back Kirk is just not really a consideration unless you're trading up one spot to make sure you get Dallas Turner or Jared verse or whoever you like. But aside from that, I think drafting a quarterback is probably off the table outside of the middle rounds. If they wanted to draft a Spencer Rattler or something, maybe that's what they would do if Kurt comes back. But otherwise I don't see it as a good

idea to draft a quarterback high. high when you're going all in. Otherwise, there's a decent chance that you draft that quarterback for the next regime if it doesn't work out with Kirk Cousins. Stephanie asks, I hear people using Stroud and Young as examples of pros and cons of drafting a quarterback. Wasn't Young the owner's pick in Carolina? Shouldn't it be a warning against owners handing down ultimatums now that's funny you bring that up because there was also a rumor that the owner of the houston texans demanded that the texans management draft cj stroud and then they also decided they were going to trade up for Will Anderson because that's who the front office wanted.

Now, that was a rumor that was out there, but somebody put this really well. I forget who it was. Somebody, I think, for PFF that made the statement, look, the decisions for 52 men from running backs to linemen, to kickers, to long snappers, to safeties, to corners. Those are the front offices. But number one, the quarterback, that's an owner's decision. And I would mostly agree with that. I mean, even when the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins, that has to go all the way to the ownership. That has to be the ownership saying, go get our guy. That's normally not a decision. Although I guess,

you know, for the green Bay Packers, they don't have an ownership. So that is the football people's decision. But most of the time, the owner is somewhere between flat out telling the management what to do at quarterback to being heavily, heavily involved in that decision. When Josh Allen didn't look good right away, there were people pointing at the Bills ownership saying, oh, you know, they were the ones that wanted the guy with the big hands and the big arm, but should have gone with Josh Rosen. Just turned out that it worked. And I think what the draft from last year says is, one, we needed to, first of all, pump the brakes a bit on calling Bryce Young a bust. He's played for one year, and he had about as horrible of a team

as I have ever seen. So they're going to have time there. And when we look at the landscape of last year's draft, there were a lot of people that ranked Bryce Young number one. It was not a ludicrous decision for their owner to want Bryce Young number one. It was not a ludicrous decision for their owner to want Bryce Young number one. He was a Heisman winner. He's super intelligent, tough playmaker. There's lots of reason to like Bryce Young still as a prospect, despite how terrible his first year was. But I looked at this a few years ago and found that it usually takes three years before we're sure about a quarterback. Sometimes even they have great first years, Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones had a good first

year and they don't always repeat it. I think CJ Stroud will based on his talent, but that's not always a guarantee either. What this tells you is how hard it is, how hard it is to figure out. We can all go back now and say, I knew CJ Stroud was going to be the best quarterback. I knew it. But a lot of times, historically, whether you thought one thing or another about a quarterback or not, isn't really predictive. And I mean, you as in everyone, I mean, teams, I mean, evaluators, I't really predictive. And I mean you as in everyone. I mean teams. I mean evaluators. I mean analysts. I wrote an article about this with two former scouts. It's just a really, really difficult thing to figure out. And circumstance matters a lot. Where C.J. Stroud

got to a team that was ready to go on the upswing. They probably didn't realize how good Nico Collins was. They hit on Tank Dell right away. They found a good tight end in free agency. They got a really, really, really sharp offensive coordinator who built a great system for him. And in Carolina, it was just a circus. They had no wide receivers, no running game, horrendous offensive line, about the worst in the league, and a coach who didn't fit at all for the young quarterback.

I mean, it was just a bad, bad situation. So I think the lesson coming out of it gods take the wheel with the quarterback position, because if they're evaluated as first rounders, it seems like there's no rhyme or reason to figuring out who's going to be good and who's not, which is why I refuse to live in a hot take world about this quarterback draft class is that, you know, there's people who love McCarthy. There's people who love Knicks. There's people who love Pennix. There's people who think Caleb Williams is going to be a bust. There's people who think he's going to be the best quarterback ever.

And who's right? We're going to have to wait a couple of years to figure it out. But nobody is consistently good at picking out which quarterbacks are going to be the best. So I actually don't have the problem with the owner saying, let's get up to number one. Let's be the best. So I actually don't have the problem with the owner saying, let's get up to number one. Let's take the quarterback because it just as easily could have worked out that way. I think it more comes down to just how difficult it is because a lot of people evaluated those two quarterbacks as being very close. And immediately under the NFL lights, we found out that they were

not in the same spot. But again, circumstance matters a lot. Are the Vikings closer to the Texans or closer to the Panthers? I would argue with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, et cetera, they're much closer to what the Texans could give a young quarterback than what Carolina had with a completely empty cupboard. And if we go back through every bust and look at the circumstance they inherited, look at the receivers they were given, look at the lines,

look at the coaching, you're going to find a lot of busts had very little to work with. And then their confidence was destroyed and it never ended up working out for them. That doesn't mean every quarterback is all just a victim of circumstance. Some of them stink, but I think that it matters a lot for whether someone becomes successful or not. Mike says, when will we know the Kirk situation is resolved? Is it safe to assume that he hasn't

signed by the 13th that he won't be back? So I asked this very question to my friend Brad Spielberger from PFF, and he told me that there is always the possibility that they could agree to move the date back when his dead cap hit kicks in, similar to what they just did with Marcus Davenport, where they move the date back to where his dead cap would kick in, to have more time to negotiate. I don't think Davenport is necessarily coming back, but there's no downside in that case to having more time to figure it out if that's what you want to do. And maybe they work out something super short term with him so they could do something similar with Kirk. But that would mean that negotiations were on the one yard line with the Vikings to return, and they're only moving the date back so it doesn't kick in and they can have a few more days to get the deal done if he's going

then he's going by the 13th because he'll have another offer in hand he'll accept that offer and teams will have those couple days to legal tamper and it sounds like from what kevin o'connell said they have been not legally tampering in indianapolis i'm not accusing anybody i'm just saying there's a lot of people in bars and restaurants late at night in indianapolis that maybe kirk's agent could overhear some things that other teams were saying uh for potential price tags for kirk cousins that's possible um but i think in that window between when the legal tampering period starts i think what is that two days and then up to the 13th we should have an answer about kirk cousins so unless you hear that the date for his dead cap hit to take hold has been moved back unless you hear that then the 13th is the date because once that 28 million dollars dead cap kicks in yeah they could do something around that but that

would be i think pretty silly uh that you got to figure it out by then or you're just punishing yourself even more with this guy's contract and how much more could you take from Kirk Cousins contract? That would, that would be really hard to end up working around if they did that. So I would expect that we are 10 days away from having a definitive answer about Kirk Cousins. Anybody else anxious about this, man, this feels like this is the Vikings version of the Super Bowl. I mean, because this just feels like a decision that is going to take this franchise in one direction or another that you are at a literal fork in the road with Kirk Cousins. If you go the Kirk Cousins route, then history is going to say one thing. And if you go the other, then history is going to say another and uh you hope it works out i guess like the alex smith situation if he goes or i mean who knows i don't know of a great

example that's similar where a guy was around for this long didn't win and then finally did but i guess it can happen i mean joe flacco i guess but he wasn't around that whole. Yeah. In 2022, Joe Flacco was an upcoming free, not 2022, 2012. Joe Flacco was an upcoming free agent that year and then got a huge contract after winning the Superbowl. So maybe that'll be the case. I don't know. We got 10 days, 10 days to talk about it. And then we'll know.

Paul says on trading up for the number three pick, if you stick at pick 11 and the guy stinks, you're picking in the top five or 10 next year. If the guy busts, you're out the next two years. So this is generally also how I have always looked at this. Like it's not worth it to trade up. The odds of Drake may being great versus whoever you'd take at 11 nicks pennix mccarthy are not that different so even if you feel they're much better prospects

you may have felt like baker mayfield was a much better prospect than lamar jackson but didn't work out that way or mitch trubisky was a much better prospect than patrick mahomes didn't work that way so historically uh the order of the quarterbacks hasn't always determined how they end up turning out. But here's the one rationale that I would give you. If Kevin O'Connell is only okay with moving on from Kirk Cousins, if he gets to pick his guy, if he gets his choice and the front office says, all right, fine, we will lowball Kirk Cousins, if he gets to pick his guy, if he gets his choice and the front office says, all right, fine, we will lowball Kirk Cousins and we'll give you your guy. And he says, all right, it's Drake May. I only want Drake May. I've evaluated all these quarterbacks. And the only guy that I'm

really into that we can get is Drake May with the number three overall pick. Cause we already think Daniel's going number two, et cetera. That's it. Then I would say, all right, let's make that phone call. Let's go for it. Let's take that big swing. Let's try to find the franchise quarterback. And I agree with you. If it goes wrong, everybody's fired and you are set back a ways. Totally agree with you. It's going to be years to try to make up for that. It's going to be really tough, but if it goes wrong, you with another quarterback, you're probably not bailing immediately unless it goes supremely wrong. So you'd probably wait anyway. Does that make sense? Like if, if you draft Bo Nix and he's just mediocre in his first year, then we're all going to say, all right, well, let's work with him. Let's give him another year. Look at Pittsburgh and Kenny Pickett, for example.

They weren't bailing on him after his first year, even though he was just so-so. They were talking themselves into it. You'd probably do the same thing. We got to give him two years. We got to give him patience. So the guy has to be putrid, and you've got to be drafted number one, like Josh Rosen at that point, everybody's probably fired anyway. So I am okay with it. And then look, if it works out, then, I mean, you're never going to remember that you traded for it. And also you get the surplus value to spend in free agency because a good quarterback is going to cost you 10 million on the salary cap. You draft them at the top and a great quarterback in going to cost you $10 million on the salary cap if you draft

them at the top. And a great quarterback in free agency is $50 million. So that's a lot of extra money to put into the roster of surplus value there. I agree it's very risky. And if we were doing this whole exercise with no pressure whatsoever, and we were simulating seasons on Madden, then I would do it your way. I would totally take the guy at 11. And if it didn't work out, I just simulate the season and then draft high the next year and it'd be fine. But in practice, you want to give O'Connell

the quarterback that he really buys into and believes in. And if that takes trading up, that takes trading up. And I'm just in favor in general of whatever big swing they're going to take, take that swing. If you want to go for it, then go for it. Like, that's fine. Even if there's risk, just go for it. Take a shot. If it doesn't work out, then at least you took your shot.

Jesse says, could Kevin O'Connell be worried about drafting a quarterback because of Haskins and Manziel were two guys he worked with coaching in the past. You mean like first round drafted quarterbacks. Could he believe that evaluating veterans, i.e. Kirk and Stafford elevating veterans, sorry, is his superpower. Yeah, I think that with Kevin O'Connell, the reason that he loves Kirk Cousins so much is one, when you go through that 2022 season with Kirk Cousins and you saw the change for him, the team start to believe in him, them win games the way that they did the way

he performed a quarterback i think it forged a close relationship for everybody who was on that team you could feel it a lot of guys at the end of the year said hey this was one of the most fun years i ever had it's one of the closest locker rooms i've ever been in that was special and for that to be his first year as a head coach in the NFL with that quarterback, doing some of the things that he did that year, all the fourth quarter comebacks, I mean, that's hard not to forge a very close relationship. So you can understand that. But I also think what O'Connell was doing in the first year is trying to teach the offense. So just learn it, just figure out the basics of it, and then we'll build on it.

But by year two, they were fluent. Everybody on the offense who all came back from the previous year, they just got it. They understood the deeper level, like the metaphysical level or whatever of what this thing is supposed to do. So all the checks, the changes, the reads, the IDs of coverage, all that stuff, as opposed to being like, wait, what is it that he wants me to do? Is it this? It was just there.

It was like when you take Spanish 101 and you're just trying to sing happy birthday, but then after you've learned it for 20 years, then you could go to Mexico or something, right? And have a conversation with people in Spanish. That's a big difference. And I think that when O'Connell felt like in the middle of the season against San Francisco and Green Bay, he was able to push any button he wanted to, any call on that play sheet, any adjustment that needed to be made, Kirk could do it. That's a great place to be as a play caller.

It's a great feeling. And that's probably where they were with Matthew Stafford by the time they got to the end of that season in Los Angeles. And that's what he wants. I mean, I don't think that the past busts have really a whole lot of impact on Kevin O'Connell. I mean, everybody knows that you could draft somebody great or you could draft somebody bad. I mean, that's just, it's just the reality. And everybody knows that the odds lean a little bit more toward bad than they do good. So you could see where as a coach, you would be very afraid of that, regardless of what's happened in the past, but afraid that someone looks great on college tape and then doesn't love the game or that is softer than you thought that maybe you felt like, oh, they're really tough on tape. And then it

turns out they're not, or that, Hey, this guy comes across as really down to earth. But then once he's in there, he's kind of a diva. I mean, it's just, it's hard to tell. And he knows that. And if you're a coach, you're afraid of that. You're afraid that you're not going to be able to just coach a guy up because when somebody's bad in the NFL, oftentimes they're just bad. And there's sometimes nothing that you could do. And those are two examples where there was probably nothing anybody could have done for them. So everyone knows the reality of that thing.

I think that Kevin O'Connell is just going to have to kind of believe in the idea that supporting cast and scheme and fit for the scheme and connection between the play caller and the quarterback is valuable and that other people can throw to Justin Jefferson than Kirk. But I get it. I get it. Some people have asked me this, and I think that this is actually part of the next question. Some people have asked me this, like, you know, I think that this is actually part of the next question. Some people have asked me this, like, should I not trust O'Connell because he wants Kirk back? And it's like, I totally get why he wants Kirk back. A hundred percent, a hundred percent. When you can guarantee yourself that you could be a top 10 offense, that you can move the football,

you can get the ball to Justin Jefferson, your quarterback's going to throw accurately, you know he's tough, you know he's got guts, you know that he's going to make a high-end, accurate throw most of the time. He's one of the most accurate quarterbacks out of the pocket in the league. That takes you pretty far. It doesn't take you all the way with just those things, as we've seen over the years, but it takes you pretty far.

And then you start thinking, as Kirk so often does to everybody, well, if we just had this and we just had that, and if just that one one-score game went differently, we'd be in a different spot. But the idea is that you're supposed to beat people by more than one score and not rest on that all the time. So anyway, you guys have heard that rant before let's answer one more question brandon says koc is a good coach but if him and kam quesadilla flamenta would rather try to keep status quo afraid of change and go into a fetal position rather than swinging i'm okay with firing them. So yeah, I mean, you can't fight. I mean,

if this was a public vote, if this was a public vote, if they brought back Kirk, the public would probably vote to remove from office the leadership of this team. One thing that I have found really interesting about the way the fans have reacted to this situation is how much the fan base I believe is leaning toward wanting to go a different direction. And I think that that's just people in Minnesota and elsewhere who are Vikings fans, just understanding how timelines work, how roster building works. I think it speaks to the intelligence of the fan base is that sometimes when you see crazy comments on the internet you go these fans are stupid what the heck we all have that feeling from time to time but my experience is different

i mean you these questions they're very very st questions. And the same for the live chats that I do. Love doing those because of how aware people are of what's going on here, how intelligent the fans are, how dialed in the fans are. And your feeling, I think, is reflective of a lot of people's feelings that if they bring Cousins back, there just isn't a high percentage of big time success. There's a high percentage of having history repeat itself from what we've seen before and also maybe even repeat itself in a worse way, considering that the division is a lot worse than it was.

There's not two free wins in Detroit and Chicago. This is now a much tougher division to play in. And I think what's also good and interesting is that all of you can see beyond what's right in front of your face. Like what's right in front of your face is, hey, next year could be tough. If you draft Michael Penix, he's going to need some time to learn how to play in the NFL. And you're probably not winning 12 games. You might win seven games. You might win six games. But a lot of you are so good at looking forward and saying, in the long run, this is going to be better. And if they draft a quarterback and have a bad year, I think all of you are wise enough to say, this is still a good situation with the head coach.

Don't just can him because that first year didn't go well. Let's let this thing play out. Let's build this roster. Let's go forward with a coach that the players buy into and build this thing. Right. And I think that fact has led everyone. I mean, the fact of the fans understanding all that has led to a feeling of, all right, it's time to move on rather than just, Hey, next year could be a little bit better if Kirk comes back. And yeah, I just, I guess I'm observing that quite a bit because I think that an extremely high percentage of the fan base would prefer to take what's behind door number two than already knowing over the last six years, what's behind door number two than already knowing over the last six years

what's behind door number one. And their job statuses are very relevant in any discussion because that's football. I mean, in the NFL, jobs come and go. I wish they didn't. I wish we could say, look, this situation with the head coach and I think the management, we'll see. We'll see. A lot of you have questions. I have questions. We'll see. I'm being patient on that. But let's just say that we feel pretty good about the situation at the head coach position. And we'll leave it at

that. I don't want the guy fired if they have a bad year, because I think it's silly that we fire coaches like crazy all the time. If the guy is a psycho bully like Urban Meyer, then yes, of course. But if he's not, it's probably better to give more time to that. Something like I use Marvin Lewis as a good example here that you give time because rosters are always rising and falling. Let's see what he could do with his roster, with a roster that's not been built by the previous regime and you're taking over and giving it a shot, but instead you built your own. These are players for your vision

and Brian Flores' vision and your quarterback, and let's see how that plays out. And I'd be willing to be much more patient about that, but it's not how the NFL operates. So on their side, on Kevin O'Connell's side, he probably looks at it and says, man, I need Kirk back. I need to get back to the playoffs

or I'm going to get fired. And I think from a front office perspective, they have to look at it as, if we don't get very far with Kirk, then we're fired. And I wish we could take fired out of the equation. And I thought about this one time at like, what if we gave terms? What if we gave like a five-year term to a head coach and they could only be removed by some sort of vote of confidence? Like again, if the guy is abusive, he's nut job. Okay. But everybody else gets a term.

How would people act? They would act much more with long-term vision. Right. And in that case, I don't think they would bring back a quarterback who with this roster can probably only get you to eight or nine and maybe 10 wins. So, yeah, I mean, I get what you're saying that if they do bring him back from my perspective, I'm going to have to really see that plan play out for the rest of the roster and be sold pretty hard on how that's going to actually work to build a complete roster to win with. That's going to be quite tough to do.

If they move on, I'm going to have much more patience and intrigue and kind of excitement about what's going to come next because I think the ceiling is ultimately higher if you move on. Anyway, great stuff from everybody. Again, thoughts on Justin Fields' rumors. Very strange place to start the podcast, but if you got them, let me know. And we got a big guest lineup coming up this week to preview the decision 2024. Hey, you think anything else will be called that this year? The decision 20?

No, probably not. Probably just this. Probably just the Kirk decision 2024. Probably the biggest decision as a nation that will be made 2024. Yeah, I'll go with that. Thanks, everybody. Football.