Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - A pre-Combine top 11 NFL Mock Draft

Episode Date: February 27, 2024

Before flying to Indy, Matthew Coller does a top 11 NFL Mock draft with no trades and there are opportunities galore for the Vikings to move up or take a QB at 11 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collard here. And I've got about 45 minutes before I go to MSP and head off to Indianapolis for the next couple days at the NFL Combine. And I was getting my stuff packed and I was like, you know what? I really need to do a mock draft before I get on this plane and head out to Indianapolis. That's what I need to do because I also need to, you know, organize my thoughts a little bit about where the Minnesota Vikings are going to stand on the draft board. And we'll talk about when we get to number 11, if they have Kirk Cousins back as their quarterback and not. And so I thought, why not?

Why not jump on YouTube, go live, talk with you guys and get some feedback about these picks. And we're going to run through them just number one through 11 for now. And then we'll get into lots of other scenarios and dynamics and who is going to rise and fall and all those different things at the combine when I get there. And all that content will be up on the podcast feed, YouTube, and the written side on the newsletter as well. If you want to check that out, purpleinsider.com is a great place to do it. But I'm trying to get my mind in the right place, get a little bit organized as I head to Indy. So I've been watching the podcasts of draft analysts, and I have downloaded and ready to go the Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky

Brooks preview of the combine where they go through five players at every position. So we are fully in draft mode now that we have arrived here at the combine. So I'm just going to jump right into it. We'll go through 11 picks, get your feedback and comments, talk about lots of different scenarios for the vikings and where we stand now and then this will give us an opportunity as well to figure out kind of where we stood at the beginning and then how thing things progressed as we went along down the stretch through draft season and i i saw it mentioned the other day that we're like 60 days away from the draft so we've got some time to work our way through it.

But I'm always curious about going into the combine and then how things change, what reports come out, how certain players perform, who rises and falls. That's always something that I'm very interested in. And especially this year, when we're looking at multiple quarterbacks who the Vikings could be targeting that are throwing at the combine. So far, what I've seen from the reports is that Caleb Williams is not going to throw, but it looks like everybody else is. And that means lots to prove and also lots for us to watch and keep our eyes on. So I'm going to dive right into this and just start it up. I've got the PFF draft simulator up. Now I'm not going to simulate

this one. I'm going to run through who I think is going to get picked in these spots first. And I have not thought this out. So I'm going to get to spots and talk it out to myself and try to figure out where I think these teams will go. And for now, we're not going to be trading. And there's always a lot more talk about trading than usually actually happens. And in this case, with quarterbacks involved, we might see trades happen as soon as next week. If there's some big, massive deal that somebody's going to make to move up like say number 11 and next year's first for the number three overall that sounds good but for right now we won't get into that just yet of what trades could happen we'll just leave it as it is and

try to figure out where each team might go if they don't move at all. So I'm going to start right out with the Chicago bears. And this is an easy one for me. This is Caleb Williams. They are debating like crazy, all the different situations surrounding Justin Fields. And you've got the Justin Fields mafia or whatever they're calling themselves of these lunatics who are just convinced that Justin Fields needs one more year and he's going to be a superstar. But I don't think that Ryan Poles is that lunatic. I think he's just going to stay at number one and all the speculation you hear

about, could they trade down to number two? Could they trade down to number three? I mean, maybe if they really like Drake May or Jaden Daniels more than Caleb Williams, but I think that's really risky. Caleb Williams has been the top quarterback for several years. And even though I've got questions like everybody else about how he's going to handle the pressure and so forth, it feels nitpicky for somebody who's been at the top of the draft for two years now. And I think we've done this with a lot of

different guys over the years, even going back way back to Peyton Manning. It was Peyton Manning was guaranteed to go number one. And then, oh, is it actually Ryan leaf? And maybe Peyton Manning had this one bad game where he threw a couple interceptions and maybe he's not what we thought he was. And then ultimately they just drafted Peyton Manning. Number one turns into a great quarterback. And that usually happens every single year. So at least as of this moment, I think that they're nitpicking away at Caleb Williams and that he will ultimately be drafted. Number one, overall. I also think that Drake may is going to go number two overall to the Washington commanders, and it's not going to be a huge shock there either. Washington needs a quarterback to build around. They've got some pieces on offense,

but really they just need to kind of start over for a lot of that franchise. They get Cliff Kingsbury in there. I don't have a ton of belief in him exactly as some quarterback whisper or guru. I don't know if that was the great pick to make, to be honest with you, but Drake may has the arm talent. He's got the size, he's got mobility, he's got playmaking and he is imperfect on his tape, but I don't know who isn't. There's lots of plays that you can pull from college quarterbacks and go, Whoa, this is a bad play, but you know what? There's lots of plays from great college quarterbacks and go, whoa, this is a bad play. But you know what? There's lots of plays from great NFL quarterbacks that if you go through with a fine tooth comb,

you can go, oh, I don't like this one. I don't like that one. But when it comes to drafting a franchise quarterback, you are taking the guy with the best tools and you are developing those tools into the guy that you think is your franchise quarterback. tools and you are developing those tools into the guy that you think is your franchise quarterback, if they were already finished products, when they came out, they would dominate college football like insane. I mean, Joe Burrow is probably the closest that I can remember recently. And he put up absolutely wild numbers in college. And still there was a little bit of a transition

period to the NFL, but he was kind of an NFL quarterback right away I think that Drake may will need a year or two but has the high-end potential that Washington cannot pass up on now with the number three pick I am going to go a different direction here from Jaden Daniels and let me know in the comment section if you guys think that I'm off here or that I should be drafted somebody else for these teams or I'm way wrong. I know some of you are complete draft nuts that have looked at every single mock draft in the world. So give me your feedback and let me know what you think. For number three, the New England Patriots are as empty of a roster as exists in the entire NFL. They've got a little bit of talent on the defensive side,

but absolutely nothing at wide receiver and nothing on the offensive line. They need a lot. And I think that putting Jaden Daniels into a situation where you've got nothing is really unwise. They did it to Mac Jones. He had a decent team around him his first year and then it fell apart. And I think that that was a big reason for his failure. And then his confidence starts to fall apart. Then everybody's blaming him. Then the fans get

on him. Like you don't want to repeat that with Jaden Daniels. You want, I think to build up your team first and they could very well be drafting shadur sanders next year so i i mean i think i i agree with richard who says this is a place to trade down if i was doing trades in this draft sim mock then i would uh i'm not for this one we'll eventually get there but i i totally agree with you guys that are saying they should trade down and try to give that pick to somebody desperate for a quarterback, maybe the number 11 pick. I don't know. But yeah, I mean, this is a good point that if a quarterback goes there, they'll get Josh Rosen. Totally. Yeah. That you're going to go there and unless you sit for a year,

it's going to be miserable and even you don't even have to go as far back as Rosen how about even just Justin Fields I mean the same thing where he arrives in Chicago he's got talent but they immediately fire their coach and then tank I mean that's not a situation where you can ask somebody to succeed they just got him a receiver for the first time and he had his best passing year. I don't think you want that from Daniels and Daniels needs work. He's not going to be a guy who can come in and overcome all those types of things with no blocking, no receivers. So if we can't trade down, I am going to go for the New England Patriots with Marvin Harrison Jr.

here with this pick at number three. Tough call between him and Malik neighbors. I've been watching a lot of draft analysts break those guys down. It's an either or type of situation. So I, you know, I don't know which one they would take, whichever one they like better. But from what you guys are talking about, I would agree that if the Minnesota Vikings were going to trade up for a quarterback, number three with the New England Patriots is the best chance because I think they might agree with us when we're telling them, don't draft a quarterback yet. You are two years away with that roster.

You need a veteran to play quarterback. You need Ryan Fitzpatrick to come back for a year and then draft your quarterback after that and set up your roster for a good situation, not waste a rookie contract with trying to build the roster around a number three quarterback, especially one like Jaden Daniels, who I have some questions about as far as the rhythm, the timing of his passing game. I just think after watching him, he needs work. His high end is ridiculous because his arm talent deep down the field is amazing. His running ability is amazing. But I want him to be able to step in and be the full version of himself

when he gets a chance, not trying to dodge tackles all the time, tacklers all the time, not having receivers drop balls, wrong routes, frustrated coaches, all those things, that would be a bad situation. But if we were doing a trade up and we were doing it with the Minnesota Vikings, this is the team. And three firsts is probably the price.

I don't think it would be insane to do that if you were the Vikings. All right, let's move to number four in the Arizona Cardinals. You know, the Arizona Cardinals bizarrely tweeted out today something like Kyler Murray, our franchise quarterback. And I wondered, is this them putting up for sale that pick? Are they saying we're not drafting a quarterback Who wants to come get this draft pick? And look, if the Patriots stayed at number three

and they took Marvin Harrison or Malik Nabors, then this becomes another spot potentially for the Vikings to move up and try to draft a quarterback there at number four. And the same thing goes for number five. Chuck, nice to see you, Chuck. What's going on, buddy? Says the only thing is if the Patriots don't want to take a quarterback at three, say they take Marvin Harrison Jr. Couldn't you go up to four or five instead of three? Don't think Arizona or the LA Chargers is taking a quarterback. Yeah, I agree. If this was the scenario, then the Vikings Vikings if Kirk does not come back are very much on the phone calling the Arizona Cardinals calling the Los Angeles Chargers but I don't think that they

would be the only ones making that phone call and then you know what happens from there who knows but do you roll the dice and hope they take Marvin Harrison Jr. or would they put that up for sale because if the Patriots were moving back to 11 let. or would they put that up for sale because if the Patriots were moving back to 11 let's say that they felt good about other wide receivers or that they wanted to start by building their offensive line first and they knew that the linemen weren't going to be taken high then you could move if you're them you could move back get those draft picks so I don't know yeah I mean how that's going to play out. I'm not sure, but the Patriots really need to take a long, long look at their roster before they decide that it's the right place for a quarterback. Matthew says, I think if may drops to five, then quasi go gets

him, goes and gets him. Otherwise they don't go up. Drake may makes the most sense to me for a Kevin O'Connell quarterback. He is super talented when it comes to throwing the football. He is the most Matthew Stafford like quarterback in this draft where he has the playmaking ability, but it's the big arm. Yeah. It's some inconsistency. The accuracy is not always perfect, but those are things that Kevin O'Connell would be looking to develop. Those raw skills are something that you just can't get anywhere else.

And then he has some playmaking when things go wrong and some creativity. So, yeah, I think that if he did drop and say it was Jaden Daniels at number two and Washington was looking for their Lamar Jackson, then you are looking at the Vikings really trying to make a push for that. And this is assuming Kirk Cousins is gone. If Kirk Cousins is here, then this conversation is kind of moot. But let's say that Arizona stays at number four. They are taking Malik neighbors at that point, I believe, because they're going to look for more wide receivers to put around Kyler Murray. And a stat that I ran across that was pretty crazy the other day is in 2021, when Kyler Murray was throwing to DeAndre Hopkins, he had 141 quarterback rating. That one year where Kyler Murray really showed what he can be at his high end was spectacular

throwing to DeAndre Hopkins. So you get him a true number one wide receiver, and he can actually be a playmaker. Now we're at the Chargers, another spot where you could definitely trade up if you're the Vikings in this scenario with a quarterback on the board. I don't know how Kevin O'Connell would feel about Jaden Daniels. One thing I noticed about Jaden Daniels, watching some film breakdowns, looking at the numbers that have been coming out and some of the under the radar numbers is that he really didn't throw over the middle of the field that

often. Now that doesn't mean that he can't, he's pretty tall and you can develop that skill within an offense, but it's just something that he didn't do that much. And if rhythm and timing is everything to Kevin O'Connell, this is not necessarily your rhythm and timing quarterback. Let's see. Thomas says I'd trade with the Titans before Atlanta. We'll get there. We'll get to the Titans shortly. That could be another situation where the quarterback is still on the board. Jaden Daniels, we'll see. Ron says, I really think they should stay at 11, take JJ McCarthy. It's such a gamble to dish out three firsts. No doubt about it. No doubt about it. If you are giving up that much, that guy better be a home run or it's going to be a massive disaster for

your future. The only thing is that, I mean, I think that Drake may is a significantly better prospect, but that doesn't mean I'm right because historically the guy who's drafted 11 chances are not that different from the guy who's drafted two or three just over the last, say five, seven years of drafting quarterbacks, if they viewed J.J. McCarthy as being worthy of the number 11 pick, then the odds are almost the same as the guys being taken at the very top. So you're probably right that it's better to take the quarterback with your own pick. At the same time, I don't want to be against teams going for it.

This kind of reminds me a little bit of the Texans last year, where all the draft analysts said, oh, Texans, you're crazy. You're out of your mind. What are you trading up for? Trading next year's first. You're going to be terrible. And they get Will Anderson. He's a superstar right away.

Like, oh, well, okay, now it's fine. And sometimes that goes wrong. It went wrong with getting Marcus Davenport for the Saints when they made a huge trade-up. It doesn't always work, but I kind of like when somebody goes for it. And that's what we talked about with if the Vikings had an interest ever in Kyler Murray or something.

It's like, hey, if they're going to go for it, then let's go for it. Sitting in the middle, not really taking your big swing has never been my thing. And if it fails, at least it fails with you taking a big shot at greatness. That's how I would look at it. Jason says, Giants will take a quarterback at six, have to get above them. We will get there momentarily. Dwayne says, I'm not trading up for Daniels.

If there's some steam for McCarthy, I might move up before someone takes him, though. And Marty says, all I know is the Vikings haven't traded up for a quarterback and it hasn't worked. So, yes, maybe trading three picks to move up won't work. I mean, that's true. Now, another part of this for trading up is that assuming they're not trading Justin Jefferson, which I hope this thing is resolved soon,

so I never have to talk about that ever again. If they have Justin Jefferson signed and Christian Derrissaw signed, you have the hardest parts done, which is finding superstar offensive players. The other parts are not as hard. And you can point to a bunch of examples of other teams that have traded for a pass rusher when they need one or signed a defensive tackle when they need one. I mean, this is a team that

has signed multiple available defensive tackles when they've needed them. So, you know, that's something that you can do. Finding a franchise quarterback, you know, that's harder. Marty says the top quarterbacks do have a higher chance of hitting statistically. Well, I think that's true ish. It's true ish. I mean, because if you're talking about the top 12, I don't know about that recently and Lamar Jackson is an outlier at 32 but as far as the order goes I mean maybe if you're talking historically going back 50 years I don't know but if we're talking recently the orders of the the draft picks have really not been totally indicative of what the guys are going to be. I mean, the 2000, what was it? Which draft is Josh Allen? Is that 2018 draft is a good example of that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and then the two best quarterbacks come after that. So it has not been every year that that

is the case, which would give me some confidence that look, if they believe in JJ McCarthy at 11, then that's a good player to take, but we'll see. We'll see if he gets to 11, because we're going to continue mocking here. Folks, have you ever heard of test driving a phone network? I did not make this up.

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Great sound effects there. Test drive, U.S. Cellular's award-winning network for 30 days. U.S. Cellular, built for us. Terms apply. Awards based on open signal independent data. Visit uscellular.com for details. And I'm going to go with the Chargers again, a place to trade if they wanted to with the offensive lineman, Joe Alt from Notre Dame. There's lots of different opinions on Joe Alt. He's a tackle. I haven't looked at it and I won't

because the Vikings have tackles. So best of luck to Joe Alt and all the people who argue about Joe Alt. I won't be one of them, but you know, we're talking about Jim Harbaugh run the football, get a big fat offensive lineman to go along with Rashaun Slater there. That makes, makes a lot of sense to me. And when they run better than the Vikings next year, I'm going to get all sorts of tweets of people saying, you see, they can run the ball under Harbaugh. That's why I wanted him. That's what that's what we'll see. And they'll throw for thirty three hundred yards with the most talented quarterback.

And we'll we'll see. We'll see how that works out onto the New York Giants. Now, this is a tough one because I think there's a really good argument for the New York Giants drafting Jaden Daniels here. I really do. Brian Dable, Jaden Daniels. It makes so much sense to me. There is no universe where they should be considering Daniel Jones as their future quarterback. They need a lot of other things because it's a bad football team. I could see them taking Brock Bowers. I could see them taking Roma Dunze. They do not have an outside wide receiver.

This really comes down to how much does Brian Dable think that Daniel Jones just had a bad year last year because of his injuries and things like that? Yes, yes, Thomas. We all remember that Christian Ponder was drafted as well. You had to do it, right? You had to do it. You had to go there. Every live stream, someone's got to bring up Christian Ponder. Thank you for being that guy. I just, I know they have other needs, but Jaden Daniels could sit for a year and then they can move on from Daniel Jones.

It just makes too much sense for me. It just makes way too much sense for Jaden Daniels to go to the New York Giants if someone hasn't already traded up and taken him. So I'm going with it here. I think that him and Brian Dable, with the way that they can run, with what they did with Josh Allen, the way that they developed Josh Allen and how explosive and dynamic ahead of that they were, that just screams this is going to be kind of scary. And plus, when you look at the NFC East, they've got to compete.

You've got Jalen Hurts. Washington's going to draft a quarterback. Dak Prescott is going to continue to be a very good quarterback for years to come. So, yeah, I think that um, that's, that's funny. Uh, that's funny, Chuck, that Daniel Jones main problem last year was he didn't go against Ed Donatello. That is true. That is true. Because if you look at Daniel Jones numbers outside of going against Ed Donatello, try to find me where it deserved a $40 million a year contract.

I can't figure that out. Tennessee Titans, everybody. The Tennessee Titans have been without a great receiver since they let A.J. Brown go. They need lots of stuff. They have put some draft capital into the receiver position. Roma Dunze, though, makes a lot of sense here. They need everything though. What do they have? They could take Brock Bowers here. I am not sold on Brock Bowers as a high

pick by the way, drafting tight ends high has generally not worked out. Sam Laporta was really good last year, but just generally speaking has not been a great idea. So I am going to go with the Tennessee Titans and Roma dunes, a great wide receiver out of Washington, and they're going to try to build around him. Now here is an interesting one. Falcons. Do we think the Falcons have Kirk cousins or Justin Fields, or do they take McCarthy here? What should the Atlanta Falcons do? Or should they look to continue to beef up their defense? I think personally that the Atlanta Falcons will already have a quarterback by the time they get here. If they didn't trade up, they are a candidate to trade up. If they don't have a quarterback, Dylan, I agree. Brock Bowers is a freak and he's a very exciting player. It's just going on history that it's been tough to draft tight ends and try to see them succeed right away.

I think it was Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap that tweeted this out. And the Vikings went through this a little bit with Irv Smith. It's such a steep learning curve for tight ends. Oftentimes they turn into TJ Hawkinson where they're way better with their second team. So I think it's a very risky pick. I'm not saying they wouldn't do it. I just think it's a very risky pick, but Atlanta doesn't need more playmakers. It just comes down to whether they need a quarterback here or not. And I'm going to say that they don't, you guys can tell me what you

think. I believe that they will be looking for a quarterback who can play for them right away because their owner is old and they've been bad for a long time. And I, they've been through the Desmond Ritter. Let's try to develop a young guy and so forth. And they drafted a coach. Who's been a head coach before they've got a roster that's set and ready to go. I am going to go with a different position here, but I don't know what position I honestly don't know what the Atlanta Falcons are looking for. I'm going to assume that everybody needs defensive line and go with Byron Murphy the second because defensive line the more defensive lineman you have the better Atlanta's defense is improving but it's not there yet everyone can use

another defensive lineman maybe combine somebody with Grady Jarrett lots of beef in the middle that's what I'm going with anybody who has potentially studied the Atlanta Falcons roster a little closer could tell me if I'm wrong on that. But who doesn't need defensive line? Cousins going to Atlanta, Thomas says. I mean, that's still the favorite in my mind is Atlanta until proven otherwise. But maybe we get closer to that answer this week. I guess we'll see.

Daniel says, if Atlanta doesn't get Fields or Kirk, I would see them picking JJ McCarthy. If people mock JJ for the Vikings, then JJ should work for Zach Robinson's offense. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I agree that if they're not going with the development or I'm sorry, if they're not going with the veteran quarterback, then they would go with the development quarterback and then try to sign like a Gardner Minshew. It just doesn't feel like a long term situation. It feels like a short term situation. The division is terrible. You've got this opportunity.

New Orleans isn't going anywhere. Carolina is going to need a lot of work. Tampa Bay is in cap trouble. It like now is your time. Go and get your quarterback. And this isn't just me urging them to sign Kirk. It's also a fact as well. Let's see. I'm a twerk says would be surprising to see them go DT before a couple of edge rushers. Yeah, you might be right. Yeah. I just just went defensive line i think grady jared's getting a little older you can always need more beef in the middle but you might

be right there's just not a guy there who's as highly rated by most of the people i've seen dallas turner and jared verse are usually the top two on a lot of people's boards but they're not that high so um uh is the faithful says what's the chances the vikings miss out on four top quarterbacks there's some some chance for sure because when you look at the draft board and the number of teams that need quarterbacks could denver jump up could vegas jump up i also saw today by the way little eyeball emoji for you guys uh joel cory who is a former nfl agent so yesterday on the show i was talking about how i didn't think that for the viking situation that the salary cap going up changed a whole heck of a lot but he actually said that he thinks that it might change Vegas's interest in Kirk now that they've

got a little bit extra space. That was the example he used. So maybe, maybe. All right, let's pick somebody for the Chicago Bears. This is something nobody wants to do here. Now, they could probably use a Byron Murphy. They still need defensive players. They need another corner. What are the Bears going to want? Another offensive lineman, but is taking Jackson Powers Johnson here too early, or would they take Flaga, the guy from Oregon State? They probably could use another offensive lineman if they're looking to help Caleb Williams out. Still need to beef up that defense. They could take a corner. What do we think the Chicago bears decide to do here with their next pick? They could look for another weapon. Some

of the top receivers are off the board. Could they go Brock Bowers, even though they already have the tight end situation settled because he's not really a pure tight end. He can do a lot of different stuff. He could be a playmaker. The bears are going to get something for talent here. I think I'm going to go with the bears taking another pass rusher and taking, let's see, maybe Dallas Turner. What do you guys think? Another pass rusher. Yeah, they have Cole commit, right? But Bowers is not really a pure tight end like Komet is. He's more of a move-around guy. And you could see them building an offense that has multiple tight ends mixed in. It's very hard to get two tight ends that can really play.

And if you have them, you're very dangerous. So Bowers, or do they go with a pass rusher or an offensive lineman? Tough call here. Tough call. I will go with that. They're going to say, let's get another pass rusher to go with Montez sweat and take Dallas Turner from Alabama. Total beast. I've watched him play a handful of times, complete monster. That's a guy that you don't really want Chicago to have. Maybe for you guys, I should have had them draft someone bad, but they drafted someone good. Now the Jets, Brock Bowers to the Jets, weapons for Aaron Rodgers right away. Makes a lot of sense to me. Brock Bowers to the Jets. And I can't wait for the comments from other teams,

fan bases saying our team would never draft that guy. We'll see. So Brock Bowers goes to the jets and now we land on the Minnesota Vikings. Let's do two different. So now we know the situation here. We know the board. Let's do two different scenarios. If the Vikings have Kirk back. And if they don't, if they have Kirk back, then there's a lot of options on the board here. Jared verse is probably the best, uh, law to the, uh, edge rusher from UCLA. Now he's going by Johnny Newton, the defensive tackle from Illinois. Really like that idea. Really, really like that idea of going Johnny Newton. But of course, JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix are here. So I think that that's pretty realistic that McCarthy or Nix or both could still be there if nobody falls in love with either guy. And I've seen this done both ways. I was watching

a mock draft the other day where Bo Nix went number 12 ahead of JJ McCarthy. And then I've seen others that have JJ McCarthy as, you know, going number eight to Atlanta. So let's just take both. Let's actually combine both guys. Bo Nix and McCarthy. We'll call them JJ Nix. No, we'll go from there because people, if they draft one of them then you're gonna have a lot of people who go should have drafted the other guy on draft night but as you folks know i would be happy with either one do we think that this is realistic uh that both of those quarterbacks will be there at number 11 when the vikings pick i do because I don't think that the teams ahead of the Vikings, even the ones that do need quarterbacks are going to reach to make them the franchise guy that, you know, the New York giants, for example, like, are they going to reach to take JJ McCarthy at number six? Probably not. And if Atlanta already has the quarterback situation filled, which we drafted, assuming that, and we already got Daniels to the New York Giants,

then Chicago's not going to pick another quarterback and the Titans should stick with Will Levis and the Jets aren't picking a quarterback more unless they really want to troll Aaron Rodgers. Unless Aaron Rodgers family takes over as the Jets general manager then I don't think they're going to do that so I do think that they will have J.J. McCarthy on the board along with Bo Nix and also Johnny Newton from Illinois who's just an absolute beast with a couple of other edge rushers there including Jared Verse from Florida State, these are some guys that I need to learn a little more about somebody like Jared verse. I need to watch a little bit more of I'm kind of holding off. I've been mostly watching quarterbacks. I've been kind of holding off until Kirk comes back and then

we'll have to look at the other positions. So what do we think here? If you're asking me, if you've listened to the show a lot recently, you probably know that my preference is Bo Nix over J.J. McCarthy. I think that he has a skill set that would fit really well with Kevin O'Connell's offense. I think he's really good at executing and operating an offense. He is mature. He is older, but also has a playmaking element to him, has a pretty strong arm and statistically was very effective throwing the ball in the intermediate areas and even pushing the ball downfield. And just the other day, Kurt Warner was tweeting about this. Kurt Warner was talking about how he's watching the tape and he thought that the average depth of target for Bo Nix

didn't really tell the story. He did throw a high number of screens, but when he was asked to go intermediate or deep, he had a lot of success in doing so. So I, I, I would personally take Bo Nix here. Overconfident Chad says Nix isn't going top 20. You know what, Chad, you might be right. Cause none of us really know at this point, you can throw out things where you sound confident, but none of us really know how the league is going to view these guys. And I did a breakdown of big boards versus results a few weeks ago when it came to quarterbacks. And you know what I found that the big boards were not reflective of the results. Daniel Jones, for example, was like 30th on big boards and went, I believe, sixth overall. And somebody like Drew Locke was 20th on big boards and went in the second

round. So we never really know. Uh, Hendon hooker was being mocked after the, uh, combine as a first round pick by some of the most dialed in people. He ended up going in the third round. So there really isn't a rhyme or reason to being able to figure out based

on outside knowledge, where guys are going. Just my preference is I like Bo Nix a lot. I've watched a lot of games of his. I watched them live and then I've watched them back. I watched a lot of draft analysis breakdowns and there are people who certainly disagree. Chris Trapasso from CBS sports is going to the combine with me. He's going to do a couple of shows there. He disagrees. He likes JJ McCarthy better. He likes the upside better. And, you know, both of those guys, I think have reasons to believe that they could be first round draft picks. That's not my guarantee. I'm just telling you from my watching what I think of each guy. I think McCarthy has a lot of work to do and there's no real guarantee that he ever gets there to do the things that everyone says are on the way for him. And with Knicks, I just really like

how well he executed that offense. And I think I mentioned this, that for a story I did the other day, I talked to two NFL scouts, former NFL scouts who could talk to me on the record about the subject. And they felt the other, they both felt the other way. Like one of them liked him. One of them didn't. So, and this is the thing, this is just wrong. Like Ale says, Bo Nix is overrated. All his numbers are inflated by uh i assume you mean yards after catch it's it's not true that's just not true

i mean i could pull this up on pff for you and show you right now like that that was not the case give me a second i've done this before i'll do it again It was just not the case because when he was asked to throw it downfield, he was successful in doing so. And, you know, with McCarthy, there's numbers that you like. He also played this Michigan team is sending the most, uh, players to the combine. I think that, that any team ever has like, doesn't it? I mean, it matters that the team was unbelievable, right? Like that, that, that doesn't, you know, I think that that plays a role in some of those numbers that JJ McCarthy put up. Uh, I'm looking for it here. I'll get it. I'll get it for the passing depth of Bo Nix to show you. All right, here we go. Here it is. Take a look. So that's the wrong one.

Let me call up the other one. That's the draft board we have. Let me get the other one. I'll get it. Here we go. See, I mean, this is the thing. Like we're talking about, oh, he threw a bunch of screens. It's true. He threw a lot of screens, but when you look at right here, his passing grades when he threw between 10 and 19 yards, he had a 94.7 PFF grade, 16 touchdowns, one pick, 145 NFL quarterback rating and average 13 yards per attempt. I mean, that's when throwing intermediate. And when he was throwing deep, he had a 95.5 PFF grade with 119.9 quarterback rating. So he did throw the ball short a lot, but when he was asked to push it down the field, he had a lot of success doing so. So I don't know. I mean, I also think that overconfident opinion on, on quarterbacks, I just kind of shrug. Like, I don't know,

like you, you, you think, you know, but the people who are the best at this, who spend all day doing nothing but analyzing the draft, get it wrong. Constantly the NFL that pays millions for scouts and they do S2 tests and they do combines and they do throwing tests and they do pro days. They get it wrong sometimes on quarterbacks. So if they like a guy, then go ahead. If they like McCarthy instead of, um, if they like McCarthy instead of Knicks could, all right, go ahead. I'm just telling you my personal preference between the two. Um, and it's not that I'm majorly down on McCarthy. I just have more questions about McCarthy. Yeah, I know all the numbers, guys.

I know all the numbers. And congratulations on copying and pasting them from other people's articles. I just showed you the numbers on Bo Nix when he was throwing the ball down the field. He had 20 big time throws and four turnover worthy plays. That's fantastic. When he was, he threw, he went 26 for 51, throwing it over 20 yards. That's an average depth of target of 30 yards down the field here. I've got the numbers right here. When he did it, he was successful. So, and, and if you're trying

to say, oh, it's his sick situation. I mean, JJ McCarthy situation wasn't amazing. You have to throw the ball 15 times a game. I mean, I don't know to the great wide receivers. I just, I have a tough time thinking that's that's like, you wouldn't factor that in, but look, Joe Burrow had the greatest supporting cast I've ever seen in my life he had two of the best wide receivers in the nfl and you know what he was great and everybody said oh well you know he was a a prod not everybody critics and so forth they said you have he doesn't have a strong on a farm he had all these great players around him and he turns out to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL immediately. So I look at, you know, I look at Knicks as somebody who I think could learn the offense effectively and was asked to

do a lot in the Oregon offense. He was asked to throw all the time and he threw a ton of passes. He had massive statistical success. He's a five-star guy. He's probably, if he runs the 40, going to run something like a 4.6, which will put him in that 90th percentile of speed for quarterbacks. He made plays. I don't know. If that's the guy they picked, that's great. And if they decide it's McCarthy, then that's great too, because that means that we're moving on from the Kirk conversation.

The same thing that we've talked about forever and always. So, you know, that's yeah, that's the thing. Like Mike says on JJ versus Knicks, I'm taking the guy who the coach trusted to run the offense and throw the ball. McCarthy will have a faster 40. I guess, you know, more than me. When I looked at, I mean,

Knicks ran, I think a four or five, seven coming out of college. So I don't know, you know, so they're both, they're both good athletes. That's the thing about this particular draft is that there are good quarterback prospects

and i think both of them are good quarterback prospects i mean that's it makes it sound like when it comes to jj mccarthy that i just like totally dislike him but uh i don't i just think i lean a little bit more toward nicks how tall is is he? I don't know, 6'2", I think. I don't know. What difference does that make? He's not 5'10". I mean, look, here's the thing. If you want to have a super hot take on one of those guys, then more power to you.

It doesn't really make sense historically to have a super hot take on guys who are first-round picks, but what would football be if we didn't do it? But I tend to lean toward trying to be as accurate as I can. And it's accurate to tell you that if guys are first round draft picks, then it's mostly a crapshoot of whether they work out or not. What I know is the Vikings can give them a really good situation. And what I also know is in our first mock that it looks like there's a chance that those guys are going to be available. Andrizona potentially the chargers even the tennessee titans depending on how things play out so i like where they stand and also yeah michael pennix's name we're gonna hear i guess probably what happens with the medicals or maybe

we won't i don't know i imagine some insider will get leaked from an agent what the medical said on Michael Penix, but I don't know. And just to go back, because you guys want to talk much more about the quarterbacks, if they were to bring back Cousins, I am all in on taking Johnny Newton with this pick. On some mock drafts, he's not taking this high. That is my type of guy. I have been pounding this table for a very long time when it comes to the defensive tackle position and creating pressure up the middle. Big fan of Newton from Illinois. And if not, if they're looking for the edge, I think Jared Versus is a better pick for them. Edge rusher from Florida State. Like him a lot.

If they were to look at the corner position, I think that it wouldn't be crazy, but they really need D-line. So if that's what they end up with, I mean, this is a draft that is going to be so stacked with offense. If they bring back Kirk, you might get the first defensive player off the entire board. That's what's really crazy is I gave Atlanta a defensive player, but if they were to take a quarterback, you could get the first defensive player potentially. So lots, lots, lots to talk about. Now, normally I would

stay on here and talk with you guys about this whole thing for another hour and so forth and make it an Epic, uh, you know, mock draft and do the whole thing and go through every team and have lots more fun. But I literally have a plane to catch. So I have to leave right now, jump in an Uber, go to MSP, fly to Indianapolis. And that is where I will see everybody next. So thanks everybody for this kind of random, mock draft thanks for joining and look forward to all sorts of content on the way lots of guests and i will be there tomorrow at 12 30 and one o'clock eastern as kevin o'connell and quacey daffle meant to take the podium and then on wednesday that's when they're going to have their sit down with us so So lots, lots going on and lots will be coming out.

So thanks everybody again for joining and we'll catch y'all later football.